CN103267912B - A kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system and methods of risk assessment - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention discloses a kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system, and it comprises: preventive trial instrument, on-Line Monitor Device, mobile device, risk assessment center and communication device; And also disclosing a kind of methods of risk assessment based on said system, the method comprises the following steps: (1) extracts the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment; (2) characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment is extracted; (3) the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment is set up; (4) incidence matrix between the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing and fault mode is set up; (5) risk assessment of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment is set up.The present invention is based on preventive trial, risk assessment that online monitoring data, tour data carry out the direct current transportation wall bushing of system, break through the single risk assessment carried out for preventive trial or online monitoring data or manual patrol data at present simultaneously, improve the reliable rate of straight-flow system.

Description

A kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system and methods of risk assessment

Technical field

The present invention relates to straight-flow system service technique field, be specifically related to a kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system and adopt this risk evaluating system to carry out the method for risk assessment.

Background technology

Due to the domestic problem that there is economic development and energy skewness at present, for realizing transfer on a large scale and the Appropriate application of the energy, domestic development is the high-voltage dc transmission electric network of backbone network with ± 500kV and ± 800kV.Relative its major advantage of conventional AC technology of transmission of electricity has:

(1) circuit cost is low.Three wires are adopted for interchange overhead transmission line, and direct current adopts two wires, can save a large amount of line construction expenses.

(2) energy loss is little year.The ac transmission of direct current overhead transmission line two conductor resistance loss ratios is little; There is no the reactive loss of induction reactance and capacitive reactance; Do not have kelvin effect, the cross section of wire utilizes fully.In addition, the space charge effect of direct current overhead transmission line makes its corona loss and radio interference all little than alternating current circuit.Therefore direct-current overhead power transmission line to be used with annual running cost at line construction initial cost and is all comparatively exchanged economy.

(3) there is not system stability problem, the non-synchronous that can realize electrical network is interconnected, and synchronous generators all in AC electric power systems all keeps synchronous operation.The transmission capacity of direct current transportation and distance, not by the restriction of synchronous operation stability, also can connect the system of two different frequencies, realize non-synchronous networking, improve the stability of system.

(4) limiting short-circuit current.Connecting two AC system causes capacity of short circuit to increase, and even changes isolating switch or sets up current-limiting apparatus.But connect two AC system by DC power transmission line, " Given current controller " of straight-flow system will be limited in short-circuit current near rated power fast, and capacity of short circuit does not increase because of interconnected.

(5) regulate fast, reliable.Direct current transportation is by thyristor inverter energy rapid adjustment active power, realize trend upset, stable output, under accident conditions can be ensured when normal, the Emergency Assistance of sane system to failure system can be realized, also can realize the suppression of oscillation damping and sub-synchronous oscillation.But when ac and dc circuit paired running, if alternating current circuit is short-circuited, can accelerates to reduce generator amature by of short duration increase direct current transmission power, improve the reliability of system.

(6) capacitance charging current is not had.Without capacitance current during DC line stable state, voltage's distribiuting along the line is steady, without the phenomenon exchanging long line receiving end and the rising of middle part generation electric voltage exception when sky, underloading, therefore compensates without the need to parallel reactance.

(7) line corridor is saved.By considering with voltage 500kV, the corridor of a direct current and transmission line of alternation current is about 40m and 50m respectively, and direct current transmission efficiency is about interchange 2 times.

Direct current transportation wall bushing, as an important main equipment at direct-current transmission converter station, achieves the connection of indoor converter valve equipment and outdoor DC fields equipment, and the operation risk assessment of itself is to ensureing that the safe and reliable operation of straight-flow system has great significance.

The method of present analysis direct current cover state through walls has preventive trial, on-line monitoring and historical summary.Preventive trial mainly measures sleeve pipe guide rod to the insulation resistance of end shield, electric capacity and dielectric loss value, end shield insulation resistance over the ground, electric capacity and dielectric loss value, SF ₆density, pressure and micro-water content; On-line monitoring mainly carries out electric capacity and dielectric loss, the SF of bottom shielding of bushing ₆density, pressure and micro-water content; Historical summary is mainly based on historical datas such as device manufacturing process level, familial defect, fault case, defect analysiss.But preventive trial, on-line monitoring and historical summary at present carry out direct current health state evaluation through walls as independently appraisement system, the risk assessment for the direct current transportation wall bushing based on basic data is not yet carried out at present.Therefore set up systematic direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system, to improving the reliable rate of straight-flow system and ensureing that continual and steady energy resource supply has great significance, facilitate the sustained, stable growth of national economy.

Summary of the invention

The object of the invention is to overcome existing one-sidedness of carrying out direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment existence respectively based on preventive trial, on-line monitoring and historical summary, improve the reliable rate of straight-flow system simultaneously, a kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system is provided and adopts this risk evaluating system to carry out the method for risk assessment.

For realizing above object, this invention takes following technical scheme:

A kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system, it comprises: for carrying out the preventive trial instrument of preventive trial to direct current transportation wall bushing; For carrying out the on-Line Monitor Device of on-line monitoring to direct current transportation wall bushing; For the mobile device maked an inspection tour direct current transportation wall bushing; For the risk assessment center analyzed the risk of direct current transportation wall bushing; And for the familial defective data of the preventive trial data of described preventive trial instrument acquisition, the online monitoring data of on-Line Monitor Device acquisition, the tour data upload of mobile device record is all sent to the communication device at risk assessment center.

The 4th radio receiving transmitting module that described communication device comprises the first radio receiving transmitting module be connected with the output terminal of preventive trial instrument, the second radio receiving transmitting module be connected with the output terminal of on-Line Monitor Device, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module be connected with the output terminal of mobile device and is connected with the input end at risk assessment center, described first radio receiving transmitting module, the second radio receiving transmitting module, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module all carry out data transmission with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module by wireless network.

Described preventive trial instrument comprises the dielectric loss measuring instrument, gas composition analysis instrument, micro-water gaging instrument, temperature measuring set, gas-pressure survey meter, direct current resistance measurer, the pollution measurement instrument that are connected between direct current transportation wall bushing and the first radio receiving transmitting module.

Described on-Line Monitor Device comprises and is connected to environment temperature on-line computing model between direct current transportation wall bushing and the second radio receiving transmitting module, ambient humidity on-line computing model, surface filth on-line computing model, the electric capacity of end shield and dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument, SF ₆density on-line computing model, pressure on-line computing model, micro-water content on-line computing model and gas composition on-line computing model.

Described first radio receiving transmitting module, the second radio receiving transmitting module, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module and the 4th radio receiving transmitting module are GPRS module, and the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module is integrated in mobile device.

Direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system described in employing carries out the method for risk assessment, and it comprises the following steps:

(1) according to preventive trial data, online monitoring data, tour data, extract the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, described characterizing magnitudes is formed vectorial C, and described vectorial C is 1 × B dimensional vector, and B is the characteristic quantity sum of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment;

(2) based on the composition function of direct current transportation wall bushing, establish for sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, end shield unit, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆the fault type of gas cell, described fault type comprises function code, fault mode code, failure-description;

(3) according to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment is set up; By each characteristic quantity C of vectorial C _jdemand value be divided into higher limit a _jor lower limit b _j, adopt the calculating formula of risk probability of happening such as formula (1) and (2) respectively, and form risk probability of happening vector D, described risk probability of happening vector D is 1 × B dimensional vector;

$D_j=\frac{C_j^{2.3}}{C_j^{2.3}+{a_j}^{2.3}}---\left(1\right)$

$D_j=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0.46-0.46sin\frac{3.11}{1.96*b_j}(C_j-0.93*b_j)& C_j\≤2b_j\\ 0& C_j>2b_j\end{array}\right.---\left(2\right)$

(4) according to the risk probability of happening that the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment is set up, the relation in conjunction with characteristic quantity and fault mode is associated matrix M, and its size is E × B, and wherein E represents the sum of fault mode, the element M of its incidence matrix M _ijcomputing method such as formula (3):

$M_{ij}=\frac{\underset{j}{min}\underset{i}{min}|D_j-D_i|}{|D_j-D_i|}---\left(3\right)$

D in formula _jand D _irepresent the component of jth and i kind risk probability of happening vector respectively, i and j is all positive integer and 1≤i≤E, 1≤j≤B;

(5) according to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, risk probability of happening and incidence matrix, set up for sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, end shield unit, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆the risk assessment of gas cell, its computing method are such as formula (4);

$A_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{B}{\Σ}}\left(M_{i\×j}\·D_j*\frac{1-H_j}{1.35-\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{H}_k}\right)---\left(4\right)$

A in formula _ibe the risk assessment component of i-th kind of fault mode, H _jand H _krepresent the entropy of jth and k characteristic quantity, the span of described entropy is (0,0.65).

Described B=20, wherein: characteristic quantity C ₁for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the insulation resistance of end shield preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₂for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the electric capacity of end shield preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₃for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the dielectric loss amount of end shield preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₄for the insulation resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground; Characteristic quantity C ₅for the electric capacity of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground; Characteristic quantity C ₆for the dielectric loss amount of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground; Characteristic quantity C ₇for the direct current resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₈for the pressure of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₉for the gas composition of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₁₀for the filth value of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₁₁for the environment temperature of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₂for the ambient humidity of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₃for the filth value of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₄for electric capacity and the dielectric loss of the end shield of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₅for the SF of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring ₆the density of gas; Characteristic quantity C ₁₆for the pressure of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₇for micro-water of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₈for the gas composition of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₉for the pressure that direct current transportation wall bushing is maked an inspection tour; Characteristic quantity C ₂₀for the temperature that direct current transportation wall bushing is maked an inspection tour.

Each characteristic quantity C _jcorresponding higher limit a _jor lower limit b _jas follows: b ₁=10G Ω; b ₂=-5%; a ₃=0.8; b ₄=1G Ω; b ₅=-5%; b ₆=-2%; b ₇=-1%; b ₈=8Mpa; a ₉=100 μ L/L; a ₁₀=0.3mg/cm ²; a ₁₁=80 DEG C; a ₁₂=85%; a ₁₃=0.3mg/cm ²; b ₁₄=-2%; b ₁₅=8kg/m ³; b ₁₆=8MPa; a ₁₇=500 μ L/L; a ₁₈=100 μ L/L; b ₁₉=8MPa; a ₂₀=30 DEG C.

Described E=17, wherein: the fault type of described sleeving core subelement comprises function code A _i, fault mode code is A ₁, described A ₁failure-description be the loose contact of sleeve pipe fuse, fault mode code is A ₂, described A ₂failure-description be the shelf depreciation of sleeve pipe fuse; The fault type of described capacitor core unit comprises function code A _iI, fault mode code is A ₃, described A ₃failure-description be that capacitor core makes moist, fault mode code is A ₄, described A ₄failure-description be the aging of capacitor core unit, fault mode code is A ₅, described A ₅failure-description be the shelf depreciation of capacitor core unit; The fault type of described end shield unit comprises function code A _iII, fault mode code is A ₆, described A ₆failure-description be that end shield unit makes moist, fault mode code is A ₇, described A ₇failure-description be the insulation ag(e)ing of end shield unit, fault mode code is A ₈, described A ₈failure-description be end shield unit shelf depreciation; The fault type of described grading ring unit comprises function code A _iV, fault mode code is A ₉, described A ₉failure-description be the corrosion of grading ring, fault mode code is A ₁₀, described A ₁₀failure-description be the filth of grading ring unit; The fault type of described silastic material unit comprises function code A _v, fault mode code is A ₁₁, described A ₁₁failure-description be the aging of silastic material unit, fault mode code is A ₁₂, described A ₁₂failure-description be the filth of silastic material unit; Fault mode code is A ₁₃, described A ₁₃failure-description be the cracking of silastic material unit; Described SF ₆the fault type of gas cell comprises function code A _vI, fault mode code is A ₁₄, described A ₁₄failure-description be SF ₆the hypotony of gas cell, fault mode code is A ₁₅, described A ₁₅failure-description be SF ₆the gas leakage of gas cell, fault mode code is A ₁₆, described A ₁₆failure-description be SF ₆making moist of gas cell, fault mode code is A ₁₇, described A ₁₇failure-description be SF ₆the electric discharge of gas cell.

The present invention compared with prior art, tool has the following advantages: the present invention is based on preventive trial, risk assessment that online monitoring data, manual patrol data carry out the direct current transportation wall bushing of system, break through the single risk assessment carried out for preventive trial or online monitoring data or manual patrol data at present simultaneously, improve the reliable rate of straight-flow system.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the structured flowchart of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is the data transmission schematic diagram of preventive trial instrument of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is the data transmission schematic diagram of on-Line Monitor Device of the present invention;

Fig. 4 is the data transmission schematic diagram of mobile device of the present invention;

Fig. 5 is the schematic flow sheet of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment of the present invention.

Wherein: 1, direct current transportation wall bushing; 2, preventive trial instrument; 21, dielectric loss measuring instrument; 22, gas composition analysis instrument; 23, micro-water gaging instrument; 24, temperature measuring set; 25, gas-pressure survey meter; 26, direct current resistance measurer; 27, pollution measurement instrument; 3, on-Line Monitor Device; 31, environment temperature on-line computing model; 32, ambient humidity on-line computing model; 33, surface filth on-line computing model; 34, the electric capacity of end shield and dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument; 35, SF ₆density on-line computing model; 36, pressure on-line computing model; 37, micro-water content on-line computing model; 38, gas composition on-line computing model; 4, mobile device; 5, communication device; 51, the first radio receiving transmitting module; 52, the second radio receiving transmitting module; 53, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module; 54, the 4th radio receiving transmitting module; 6, risk assessment center.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments, content of the present invention is described in further details.

Embodiment:

Refer to shown in Fig. 1, direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system of the present invention includes direct current transportation wall bushing 1, preventive trial instrument 2, on-Line Monitor Device 3, mobile device 4, communication device 5 and risk assessment center 6 and forms.Preventive trial instrument 2 obtains the preventive trial data of direct current transportation wall bushing 1, on-Line Monitor Device 3 is for obtaining the online monitoring data of direct current transportation wall bushing, mobile device 4 is for recording the data of manual patrol, communication device 5 is responsible for the data of preventive trial data, online monitoring data, manual patrol, is transferred to risk assessment center 6, risk assessment center 6 realizes the risk assessment of direct current transportation wall bushing 1 according to above-mentioned data, for the safe and reliable operation of straight-flow system provides foundation.

Refer to shown in Fig. 2, preventive trial instrument 2 comprises dielectric loss measuring instrument 21, gas composition analysis instrument 22, micro-water gaging instrument 23, temperature measuring set 24, gas-pressure survey meter 25, direct current resistance measurer 26, pollution measurement instrument 27, their input end is all connected with direct current transportation wall bushing 1, output terminal is all connected with the first radio receiving transmitting module 51, is also connected with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 and risk assessment center 6 in turn at the opposite side of the first radio receiving transmitting module 51.Wherein, between preventive trial instrument 2 and the first radio receiving transmitting module 51 be wireless connections; Risk assessment center 6 is connected with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 by serial ports; First radio receiving transmitting module 51 is connected to the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 through wireless network, realizes preventive trial data and transfers to risk assessment center 6.

Refer to shown in Fig. 3, transmission structure with preventive trial instrument 2 is similar, and on-Line Monitor Device 3 comprises environment temperature on-line computing model 31, ambient humidity on-line computing model 32, surface filth on-line computing model 33, the electric capacity of end shield and dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument 34, SF ₆density on-line computing model 35, pressure on-line computing model 36, micro-water content on-line computing model 37 and gas composition on-line computing model 38, their input end is all connected with direct current transportation wall bushing 1, output terminal is all connected with the second radio receiving transmitting module 52.The 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 and risk assessment center 6 is also connected with in turn at the opposite side of the second radio receiving transmitting module 52.

Refer to shown in Fig. 4, mobile device 4 is a kind of mobile electronic devices with the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53, temperature and pressure data that its data are read by on-the-spot tour personnel by data stored in this mobile electronic device, and sent by the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53, be also connected with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 and risk assessment center 6 in turn at the opposite side of the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53.

Composition graphs 2-4 is known, communication device 5 comprises the first radio receiving transmitting module 51 be connected with the output terminal of preventive trial instrument 2, the second radio receiving transmitting module 52 be connected with the output terminal of on-Line Monitor Device 3, be connected with the output terminal of mobile device 4 and the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53 be integrated in one with this mobile device 4, and the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 to be connected with the input end at risk assessment center 6, wherein, first radio receiving transmitting module 51, second radio receiving transmitting module 52, 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53 all carries out data transmission with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 by wireless network.

In the present embodiment, direct current transportation wall bushing 1 adopts HSPHOCHSPANNUNGSGERATEKOLN/GERMAN direct current transportation wall bushing, first radio receiving transmitting module 51, second radio receiving transmitting module 52, 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53, 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 all adopts the R-8552/8554GPRSDTU of GEMOTECH, dielectric loss measuring instrument 21 adopts the YHJS-IV dielectric loss instrument of the Shanghai electric Science and Technology Ltd. of suitable letter, gas composition analysis instrument 22 adopts the GC-7960 type gas chromatograph of Tengzhou City Alan Analytical Instrument Co., Ltd, micro-water gaging instrument 23 adopts the RTWS-242SF of Hua Tian Utilities Electric Co. ₆micro-water gaging instrument, temperature measuring set 24 adopts the DSC-DTSnK-XB of Dien instrument, gas-pressure survey meter 25 adopts the HQ-SY-C precision digital tensimeter of red flag instrument, direct current resistance measurer 26 adopts the PC57 direct current resistance measurer of Shanghai Tai Ou Electronics Co., Ltd., pollution measurement instrument 27 adopts the NDYMD digital direct-reading type intelligence salt density test instrument of Nan electricity Hua source, Wuhan Electric Applicance Co., Ltd, risk assessment center 6 adopts Dell PowerEdgeR410, environment temperature on-line computing model 31 adopts the DSC-DTSnK-XB of Beijing Dien Kang Shuo development in science and technology company limited, ambient humidity on-line computing model 32 adopts ETH-P16 type environmental test equipment hygrothermograph, surface filth on-line computing model 33 adopts the NDYMD digital direct-reading type intelligence salt density test instrument of Nan electricity Hua source, Wuhan Electric Applicance Co., Ltd, the electric capacity of end shield and dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument 34 adopt the ZF-800-3 type capacitive apparatus on-line computing model divided in Henan, SF ₆the Y-100-type of the extraordinary instrucment and meter plant in Yichang that adopts of density on-line computing model 35, pressure on-line computing model 36 adopts the HQ-SY-C precision digital tensimeter of red flag instrument, and micro-water content on-line computing model 37 adopts the RTWS-242SF of Hua Tian Utilities Electric Co. ₆micro-water gaging instrument, gas composition on-line computing model 38 adopts the GC-7960 type gas chromatograph of Tengzhou City Alan Analytical Instrument Co., Ltd, and mobile device 4 adopts the G23OneX type of HTC company.

Refer to Fig. 5.The risk assessment center 6 of direct current transportation wall bushing carries out the risk assessment of direct current transportation wall bushing 1 according to preventive trial data, on-Line Monitor Device data, tour data, and its method step is as follows:

The characteristic quantity of S101, the risk assessment of extraction direct current transportation wall bushing.

According to preventive trial data, online monitoring data, tour data that the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 obtains, extract the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, described characterizing magnitudes is formed vectorial C, this vectorial C is 1 × B dimensional vector, B is the characteristic component sum of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, in the present embodiment, and B=20, according to monitoring result, obtain vectorial C as shown in data (5):

$C=\left[\begin{array}{c}3.5\\ 2.6\\ .\\ .\\ .\\ 2.07\end{array}\right]---\left(5\right)$

Wherein, each characteristic quantity C of vectorial C _j(j be not more than 20 positive integer) respectively represent: characteristic quantity C ₁for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the insulation resistance of end shield preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₂for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the electric capacity of end shield preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₃for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the dielectric loss amount of end shield preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₄for the insulation resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground; Characteristic quantity C ₅for the electric capacity of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground; Characteristic quantity C ₆for the dielectric loss amount of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground; Characteristic quantity C ₇for the direct current resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₈for the pressure of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₉for the gas composition of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₁₀for the filth value of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₁₁for the environment temperature of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₂for the ambient humidity of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₃for the filth value of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₄for electric capacity and the dielectric loss of the end shield of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₅for the SF of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring ₆the density of gas; Characteristic quantity C ₁₆for the pressure of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₇for micro-water of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₈for the gas composition of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₉for the pressure that direct current transportation wall bushing is maked an inspection tour; Characteristic quantity C ₂₀for the temperature that direct current transportation wall bushing is maked an inspection tour.

S102, set up the fault mode of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system.

According to the system composition function of direct current transportation wall bushing, establish for sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, end shield unit, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆the fault type of gas cell, described fault type comprises function code, fault mode code, failure-description simultaneously.Its fault mode result is as table 1:

Table 1

S103, set up the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment.

According to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, set up the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment; By each characteristic quantity C of vectorial C _jdemand value be divided into higher limit a _jor lower limit b _j, adopt the calculating formula of risk probability of happening such as formula (6) and (7) respectively, and form risk probability of happening vector D:

$D_j=\frac{C_j^{2.3}}{C_j^{2.3}+{a_j}^{2.3}}---\left(6\right)$

$D_j=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0.46-0.46sin\frac{3.11}{1.96*b_j}(C_j-0.93*b_j)& C_j\≤2b_j\\ 0& C_j>2b_j\end{array}\right.---\left(7\right)$

In the present embodiment, each characteristic quantity C _jcorresponding higher limit a _jwith lower limit b _jas follows: b ₁=10G Ω; b ₂=-5%; a ₃=0.8; b ₄=1G Ω; b ₅=-5%; b ₆=-2%; b ₇=-1%; b ₈=8Mpa; a ₉=100 μ L/L; a ₁₀=0.3mg/cm ²; a ₁₁=80 DEG C; a ₁₂=85%; a ₁₃=0.3mg/cm ²; b ₁₄=-2%; b ₁₅=8kg/m ³; b ₁₆=8MPa; a ₁₇=500 μ L/L; a ₁₈=100 μ L/L; b ₁₉=8MPa; a ₂₀=30 DEG C, above-mentioned value and data (5) are substituted into formula (6) and (7), trying to achieve risk probability of happening vector D is 1 × 20 dimensional vector:

$D=\left[\begin{array}{c}0.35\\ 0.15\\ .\\ .\\ .\\ 0.023\end{array}\right]---\left(8\right)$

S104, set up incidence matrix between the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing and fault mode.

According to the risk probability of happening that the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment is set up, the relation in conjunction with characteristic quantity and fault mode is associated matrix M, and its size is E × B, and wherein E represents the sum of fault mode, the element M of its incidence matrix M _ijcomputing method such as formula (9):

$M_{ij}=\frac{\underset{j}{min}\underset{i}{min}|D_j-D_i|}{|D_j-D_i|}---\left(9\right)$

D in formula _jand D _irepresent the component of jth and i kind risk probability of happening vector respectively, in the present embodiment, 6 kinds of fault types are had to amount to 17 kinds of fault modes (i.e. E=17) as shown in Table 1, therefore, in the present embodiment, i be not more than 17 positive integer, by data (8) substitute into formula (9) can obtain 17 × 20 dimension relational matrix M as shown in data (10):

$M=\left[\begin{array}{cccc}0.22& 0.13& ...& 0.29\\ 0.19& 0.02& ...& 0.31\\ .& .& .& .\\ .& .& .& .\\ .& .& .& .\\ 0.61& 0.15& ...& 0.18\end{array}\right]---\left(10\right)$

S105, set up the risk assessment of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment.

According to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, risk probability of happening and incidence matrix, set up for sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, end shield unit, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆the risk assessment of gas cell, its computing method are such as formula (11);

$A_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{B}{\Σ}}\left(M_{i\×j}\·D_j*\frac{1-H_j}{1.35-\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{H}_k}\right)---\left(11\right)$

A in formula _ibe i-th kind of fault mode, H _jand H _krepresent the entropy of jth and k (can find out that k is the positive integer being not more than j obviously) individual characteristic quantity, the span of this entropy is (0,0.65), data (8) and data (10) are substituted into formula (11) and the risk assessment vector A of 1 × 17 dimension can be obtained as shown in data (12):

$A=\left[\begin{array}{c}{A}_1\\ A_2\\ .\\ .\\ .\\ A_{17}\end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{c}0.023\\ 0.19\\ .\\ .\\ .\\ 0.046\end{array}\right]---\left(12\right)$

Therefore can judge according to above-mentioned data (12) that the loose contact value-at-risk of the sleeve pipe fuse of direct current transportation wall bushing is as 0.023, it is 0.19 that value-at-risk is put in the office of the sleeve pipe fuse of direct current transportation wall bushing, the value-at-risk of other fault modes the like, the maximal value of each unit risk assessment value is the value-at-risk of 0.538 (not shown) as direct current transportation wall bushing simultaneously.

Effect analysis: by the analysis of above-mentioned example, can judge that the loose contact value-at-risk of the sleeve pipe fuse of direct current transportation wall bushing is as 0.023, it is 0.19 that value-at-risk is put in the office of the sleeve pipe fuse of direct current transportation wall bushing, the value-at-risk of the wall bushing of direct current transportation is simultaneously 0.538, therefore the method is based on preventive trial, online monitoring data, manual patrol data carry out the risk assessment of the direct current transportation wall bushing of system, break through the single risk assessment carried out for preventive trial or online monitoring data or manual patrol data at present simultaneously, improve the reliable rate of straight-flow system.

The present embodiment applies to:

The risk assessment of 1, ± 500kV and above direct current transportation wall bushing;

The operation risk analysis of 2, ± 500kV and above direct current transportation wall bushing, repair based on condition of component, aid decision making.

Above-listed detailed description is illustrating for possible embodiments of the present invention, and this embodiment is also not used to limit the scope of the claims of the present invention, and the equivalence that all the present invention of disengaging do is implemented or changed, and all should be contained in the scope of the claims of this case.

Claims (4)

1. adopt direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system to carry out a method for risk assessment, it is characterized in that, it comprises the following steps:

(1) according to preventive trial data, online monitoring data, tour data, extract the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, described characterizing magnitudes is formed vectorial C, and described vectorial C is 1 × B dimensional vector, and B is the characteristic quantity sum of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment;

(2) based on the composition function of direct current transportation wall bushing, establish for sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, end shield unit, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆the fault type of gas cell, described fault type comprises function code, fault mode code, failure-description;

(3) according to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment is set up; By each characteristic quantity C of vectorial C _jdemand value be divided into higher limit a _jor lower limit b _j, adopt the calculating formula of risk probability of happening such as formula (1) and (2) respectively, and form risk probability of happening vector D, described risk probability of happening vector D is 1 × B dimensional vector;

$D_j=\frac{C_j^{2.3}}{C_j^{2.3}+{a_j}^{2.3}}---\left(1\right)$

$D_j=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0.46-0.46sin\frac{3.11}{1.96*b_j}(C_j-0.93*b_j)& C_j\≤2b_j\\ 0& C_j>2b_j\end{array}\right.---\left(2\right)$

(4) according to the risk probability of happening that the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment is set up, the relation in conjunction with characteristic quantity and fault mode is associated matrix M, and its size is E × B, and wherein E represents the sum of fault mode, the element M of its incidence matrix M _ijcomputing method such as formula (3):

$M_{ij}=\frac{\underset{j}{min}\underset{i}{min}|D_j-D_i|}{|D_j-D_i|}---\left(3\right)$

D in formula _jand D _irepresent the component of jth and i kind risk probability of happening vector respectively, i and j is all positive integer and 1≤i≤E, 1≤j≤B;

(5) according to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, risk probability of happening and incidence matrix, set up for sleeve pipe fuse, capacitor core, end shield, grading ring, silastic material, SF ₆the risk assessment vector A of gas cell, its computing method are such as formula (4);

$A_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{B}{\Σ}}\left(M_{i\×j}\·D_j*\frac{1-H_j}{1.35-\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{H}_k}\right)---\left(4\right)$

A in formula _ibe the risk assessment component of i-th kind of fault mode, H _jand H _krepresent the entropy of jth and k characteristic quantity, the span of described entropy is (0,0.65).

2. method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described B=20, wherein:

Characteristic quantity C ₁for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the insulation resistance of end shield preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₂for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the electric capacity of end shield preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₃for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod is to the dielectric loss amount of end shield preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₄for the insulation resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground;

Characteristic quantity C ₅for the electric capacity of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground;

Characteristic quantity C ₆for the dielectric loss amount of direct current transportation wall bushing end shield preventive trial over the ground;

Characteristic quantity C ₇for the direct current resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₈for the pressure of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₉for the gas composition of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₀for the filth value of direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₁for the environment temperature of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₂for the ambient humidity of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₃for the filth value of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₄for electric capacity and the dielectric loss of the end shield of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₅for the SF of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring ₆the density of gas;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₆for the pressure of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₇for micro-water of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₈for the gas composition of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₉for the pressure that direct current transportation wall bushing is maked an inspection tour;

Characteristic quantity C ₂₀for the temperature that direct current transportation wall bushing is maked an inspection tour.

3. method according to claim 2, is characterized in that, each characteristic quantity C _jcorresponding higher limit a _jor lower limit b _jas follows: b ₁=10G Ω; b ₂=-5%, a ₃=0.8; b ₄=1G Ω; b ₅=-5%; b ₆=-2%; b ₇=-1%; b ₈=8Mpa; a ₉=100 μ L/L; a ₁₀=0.3mg/cm ²; a ₁₁=80 DEG C; a ₁₂=85%; a ₁₃=0.3mg/cm ²; b ₁₄=-2%; b ₁₅=8kg/m ³; b ₁₆=8MPa; a ₁₇=500 μ L/L; a ₁₈=100 μ L/L; b ₁₉=8MPa; a ₂₀=30 DEG C.

4. method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described E=17, wherein:

The fault type of described sleeving core subelement comprises function code A _i, fault mode code is A ₁, described A ₁failure-description be the loose contact of sleeve pipe fuse, fault mode code is A ₂, described A ₂failure-description be the shelf depreciation of sleeve pipe fuse;

The fault type of described capacitor core unit comprises function code A _iI, fault mode code is A ₃, described A ₃failure-description be that capacitor core makes moist, fault mode code is A ₄, described A ₄failure-description be the aging of capacitor core unit, fault mode code is A ₅, described A ₅failure-description be the shelf depreciation of capacitor core unit;

The fault type of described end shield unit comprises function code A _iII, fault mode code is A ₆, described A ₆fault mode be that end shield unit makes moist, fault mode code is A ₇, described A ₇failure-description be the insulation ag(e)ing of end shield unit, fault mode code is A ₈, described A ₈failure-description be end shield unit shelf depreciation;

The fault type of described grading ring unit comprises function code A _iV, fault mode code is A ₉, described A ₉failure-description be the corrosion of grading ring, fault mode code is A ₁₀, described A ₁₀failure-description be the filth of grading ring unit;

The fault type of described silastic material unit comprises function code A _v, fault mode code is A ₁₁, described A ₁₁failure-description be the aging of silastic material unit, fault mode code is A ₁₂, described A ₁₂failure-description be the filth of silastic material unit, fault mode code is A ₁₃, described A ₁₃failure-description be the cracking of silastic material unit;

Described SF ₆the fault type of gas cell comprises function code A _vI, fault mode code is A ₁₄, described A ₁₄failure-description be SF ₆the hypotony of gas cell, fault mode code is A ₁₅, described A ₁₅failure-description be SF ₆the gas leakage of gas cell, fault mode code is A ₁₆, described A ₁₆failure-description be SF ₆making moist of gas cell, fault mode code is A ₁₇, described A ₁₇failure-description be SF ₆the electric discharge of gas cell.