CN103267912A - Risk assessment system and risk assessment method for direct-current transmission wall bushing - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk assessment system for a direct-current transmission wall bushing. The risk assessment system for the direct-current transmission wall bushing comprises a preventive test instrument, an on-line monitoring device, a moving device, a risk assessment center and a communication device. The invention further discloses a risk assessment method based on the system. The risk assessment method comprises the following steps of (1) extracting a characteristic quantity of risk assessment of the direct-current transmission wall bushing, (2) building a breakdown mode of the risk assessment system for the direct-current transmission wall bushing, (3) building up the risk occurrence probability of the risk assessment of the direct-current transmission wall bushing, (4) building up an incidence matrix between the risk occurrence probability and the breakdown mode of the direct-current transmission wall bushing, and (5) building up risk assessment of the direct-current transmission wall bushing. According to the risk assessment system and the risk assessment method for the direct-current transmission wall bushing, systematic risk assessment of the direct-current transmission wall bushing is carried out based on a preventive test, on-line data monitoring and data inspection, the risk assessment only regarding the preventive test, or the on-line data monitoring or artificial data inspection is broken through at the same time, and the operation reliability of a direct-current system is improved.

Description

A kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system and methods of risk assessment

Technical field

The present invention relates to straight-flow system service technique field, be specifically related to a kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system and adopt this risk evaluating system to carry out the method for risk assessment.

Background technology

Because present domestic economic development and the energy problem of uneven distribution of existing, be to realize the transfer on a large scale of the energy and rationally utilize, domestic developed with ± 500kV and ± 800kV is the high-voltage dc transmission electric network of backbone network.Its major advantage of conventional AC technology of transmission of electricity has relatively:

(1) the circuit cost is low.Adopt three leads for exchanging overhead transmission line, and direct current adopts two leads, can save a large amount of line construction expenses.

(2) year energy loss is little.The ac transmission of two conductor resistance loss ratios of direct current overhead transmission line is little; The reactive loss that does not have induction reactance and capacitive reactance; Do not have kelvin effect, the cross section of lead utilizes fully.In addition, the space charge effect of direct current overhead transmission line makes its corona loss and radio interference all little than the alternating current circuit.Therefore the direct current overhead transmission line is used all economical than exchanging at line construction initial cost and annual running cost.

(3) there is not the system stability problem, can realize that the non-same period of electrical network is interconnected, and all synchronous generators all keeps synchronous operation in the AC electric power systems.The transmission capacity of direct current transportation and distance are not subjected to the restriction of synchronous operation stability, also can connect the system of two different frequencies, realize the non-networking same period, improve the stability of system.

(4) limiting short-circuit current.Connect two AC system and cause that capacity of short circuit increases, even change isolating switch or set up current-limiting apparatus.Yet connect two AC system with DC power transmission line, " decide Current Control " general of straight-flow system is limited in short-circuit current near the rated power fast, and capacity of short circuit does not increase because of interconnected.

(5) regulate fast, reliable.Direct current transportation is by thyristor inverter energy rapid adjustment active power, the upset of realization trend is just often guaranteeing stable output, under accident conditions, can realize perfecting system to the Emergency Assistance of failure system, also can realize the inhibition of oscillation damping and sub-synchronous oscillation.Yet when the ac and dc circuit paired running, if the alternating current circuit is short-circuited, can accelerate to reduce generator amature by of short duration increase direct current transmission power, improve the reliability of system.

(6) there is not the electric capacity charging current.Do not have capacitance current during the DC line stable state, voltage along the line distributes steady, exchanges the phenomenon that the electric voltage exception rising takes place for long line receiving end and middle part when not having sky, underloading, therefore need not parallel reactance and compensates.

(7) save the circuit corridor.By considering with voltage 500kV, the corridor of direct current and transmission line of alternation current is about 40m and 50m respectively, and direct current transmission efficient is about and exchanges 2 times.

The direct current transportation wall bushing is as an important main equipment at direct-current transmission converter station, realized being connected of indoor converter valve equipment and outdoor dc fields equipment, and the operation risk assessment of itself has great significance to the safe and reliable operation that ensures straight-flow system.

The method of analyzing direct current cover state through walls at present has preventive trial, on-line monitoring and historical summary.Preventive trial is mainly measured the sleeve pipe guide rod to insulation resistance, electric capacity and the dielectric loss value of end screen, end screen insulation resistance, electric capacity and dielectric loss value over the ground, SF ₆Density, pressure and micro-water content; On-line monitoring is mainly carried out the electric capacity of bottom shielding of bushing and dielectric loss, SF ₆Density, pressure and micro-water content; Historical summary is mainly based on historical datas such as device manufacturing process level, familial defective, fault case, defect analysiss.Yet preventive trial, on-line monitoring and historical summary at present carry out direct current health status assessment through walls as appraisement system independently, do not carry out as yet at present for the risk assessment based on the direct current transportation wall bushing of basic data.Therefore set up systematic direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system, to improving the reliable rate of straight-flow system and ensureing that continual and steady energy resource supply has great significance, and has promoted the sustained, stable growth of national economy.

The present invention is under national 863 Program project fund (2012AA050209) is subsidized, and has proposed a kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system and methods of risk assessment.

Summary of the invention

The objective of the invention is to overcome existing one-sidedness of carrying out direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment existence respectively based on preventive trial, on-line monitoring and historical summary, improve the reliable rate of straight-flow system simultaneously, a kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system is provided and adopts this risk evaluating system to carry out the method for risk assessment.

For realizing above purpose, the present invention has taked following technical scheme:

A kind of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system, it comprises: the preventive trial instrument that is used for the direct current transportation wall bushing is carried out preventive trial; Be used for the direct current transportation wall bushing is carried out the on-Line Monitor Device of on-line monitoring; For the mobile device that the direct current transportation wall bushing is maked an inspection tour; For the risk assessment center that the risk of direct current transportation wall bushing is analyzed; And the familial defective data of the tour data upload of the preventive trial data that are used for described preventive trial instrument is obtained, online monitoring data that on-Line Monitor Device is obtained, mobile device record all is sent to the communication device at risk assessment center.

Described communication device comprises first radio receiving transmitting module that links to each other with the output terminal of preventive trial instrument, second radio receiving transmitting module that links to each other with the output terminal of on-Line Monitor Device, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module that links to each other with the output terminal of mobile device and the 4th radio receiving transmitting module that links to each other with the input end at risk assessment center, and described first radio receiving transmitting module, second radio receiving transmitting module, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module all carry out data transmission with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module by wireless network.

Described preventive trial instrument comprises dielectric loss tester, gas composition analyser, little water gaging instrument, temperature measuring set, gas-pressure survey meter, direct current resistance measurer, the filthy measuring instrument that is connected between direct current transportation wall bushing and first radio receiving transmitting module.

Described on-Line Monitor Device comprises environment temperature on-line monitoring instrument, ambient humidity on-line monitoring instrument, surface filth on-line monitoring instrument, last electric capacity of shielding and dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument, the SF that is connected between direct current transportation wall bushing and second radio receiving transmitting module ₆Density on-line monitoring instrument, pressure on-line monitoring instrument, micro-water content on-line monitoring instrument and gas composition on-line monitoring instrument.

Described first radio receiving transmitting module, second radio receiving transmitting module, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module and the 4th radio receiving transmitting module are the GPRS module, and the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module is integrated in the mobile device.

The method that adopts described direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system to carry out risk assessment, it may further comprise the steps:

(1) according to preventive trial data, online monitoring data, tour data, extract the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, described feature value is formed vectorial C, and described vectorial C is 1 * B dimensional vector, and B is the characteristic quantity sum of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment;

(2) based on the composition function of direct current transportation wall bushing, set up at sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, screen unit, end, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆The fault type of gas cell, described fault type comprise function code, fault mode code, failure-description;

(3) according to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system, set up the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment; Each characteristic quantity C with vectorial C _jDemand value be divided into higher limit a _jOr lower limit b _j, adopting the calculating formula of fault probability of happening suc as formula (1) and (2) respectively, and form fault probability of happening vector D, described fault probability of happening vector D is 1 * B dimensional vector;

$D_j=\frac{C_j^{2.3}}{C_j^{2.3}+{a_j}^{2.3}}$ （1）

$D_j=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0.46-0.46\sin \frac{3.11}{1.96^{*}{b}_j}(C_j-0.93^{*}{b}_j)& C_j\≤{2b}_j\\ 0& C_j>{2b}_j\end{array}\right.$ （2）

(4) the risk probability of happening of setting up according to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment is set up incidence matrix M in conjunction with the relation of characteristic quantity and fault mode, and its size is E * B, and wherein E represents the sum of fault mode, the element M of its incidence matrix M _IjComputing method suc as formula (3):

$M_{\mathrm{ij}}=\frac{\underset{j}{\min }\underset{i}{\min }|D_j-D_i|}{|D_j-D_i|}$ （3）

D in the formula _jAnd D _iRepresent j and i kind fault probability of happening vector components respectively, i and j are all positive integer and 1≤i≤E, 1≤j≤B;

(5) according to characteristic quantity, risk probability of happening and the fault mode incidence matrix of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment, set up at sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, screen unit, end, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆The risk assessment of gas cell, its computing method are suc as formula (4);

$A_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{B}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(M_{i\×j}\·{D_j}^{*}\frac{{1-H}_j}{1.35-\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{H}_k})$ （4）

A in the formula _iBe the risk assessment component of i kind fault mode, H _jAnd H _kThe entropy of representing a j and k characteristic quantity, the span of described entropy are (0,0.65).

Described B=20, wherein: characteristic quantity C ₁Be the insulation resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₂Be the electric capacity of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₃Be the dielectric loss amount of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₄For shielding the insulation resistance of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end; Characteristic quantity C ₅For shielding the electric capacity of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end; Characteristic quantity C ₆For shielding the dielectric loss amount of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end; Characteristic quantity C ₇Direct current resistance for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₈Pressure for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₉Gas composition for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₁₀Filth value for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₁₁Environment temperature for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₂Ambient humidity for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₃Filth value for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₄Electric capacity and dielectric loss for the end of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring screen; Characteristic quantity C ₁₅The SF that tests for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring ₆The density of gas; Characteristic quantity C ₁₆Pressure for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₇Little water for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₈Gas composition for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₉Pressure for the tour of direct current transportation wall bushing; Characteristic quantity C ₂₀Temperature for the tour of direct current transportation wall bushing.

Each characteristic quantity C _jCorresponding higher limit a _jOr lower limit b _jAs follows: b ₁=10G Ω; b ₂=-5%; a ₃=0.8; b ₄=1G Ω; b ₅=-5%; b ₆=-2%; b ₇=-1%; b ₈=8Mpa; a ₉=100 μ L/L; a ₁₀=0.3mg/cm ²a ₁₁=80 ℃; a ₁₂=85%; a ₁₃=0.3mg/cm ²b ₁₄=-2%; b ₁₅=8kg/m ³b ₁₆=8MPa; a ₁₇=500 μ L/L; a ₁₈=100 μ L/L; b ₁₉=8MPa; a ₂₀=30 ℃.

Described E=17, wherein: the fault type of described sleeving core subelement comprises function code A _I, the fault mode code is A ₁, described A ₁Failure-description be the loose contact of sleeve pipe fuse, the fault mode code is A ₂, described A ₂Failure-description be the shelf depreciation of sleeve pipe fuse; The fault type of described capacitor core unit comprises function code A _II, the fault mode code is A ₃, described A ₃Failure-description be that capacitor core makes moist, the fault mode code is A ₄, described A ₄Failure-description be the aging of capacitor core unit, the fault mode code is A ₅, described A ₅Failure-description be the shelf depreciation of capacitor core unit; The fault type of screen unit, described end comprises function code A _III, the fault mode code is A ₆, described A ₆Failure-description make moist for end screen unit, the fault mode code is A ₇, described A ₇Failure-description be the unit insulation ag(e)ing of end screen, the fault mode code is A ₈, described A ₈Failure-description be end screen unit shelf depreciation; The fault type of described grading ring unit comprises function code A _IV, the fault mode code is A ₉, described A ₉Failure-description be the corrosion of grading ring, the fault mode code is A ₁₀, described A ₁₀Failure-description be the filth of grading ring unit; The fault type of described silastic material unit comprises function code A _V, the fault mode code is A ₁₁, described A ₁₁Failure-description be the aging of silastic material unit, the fault mode code is A ₁₂, described A ₁₂Failure-description be the filth of silastic material unit; The fault mode code is A ₁₃, described A ₁₃Failure-description be the cracking of silastic material unit; Described SF ₆The fault type of gas cell comprises function code A _VI, the fault mode code is A ₁₄, described A ₁₄Failure-description be SF ₆The hypotony of gas cell, fault mode code are A ₁₅, described A ₁₅Failure-description be SF ₆The gas leakage of gas cell, fault mode code are A ₁₆, described A ₁₆Failure-description be SF ₆Making moist of gas cell, fault mode code are A ₁₇, described A ₁₇Failure-description be SF ₆The discharge of gas cell.

The present invention compared with prior art, has following advantage: the present invention is based on preventive trial, online monitoring data, manual patrol data and carry out the risk assessment of the direct current transportation wall bushing of system, break through the at present single risk assessment of carrying out at preventive trial or online monitoring data or manual patrol data simultaneously, improve the reliable rate of straight-flow system.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is the structured flowchart of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is the data transmission synoptic diagram of preventive trial instrument of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is the data transmission synoptic diagram of on-Line Monitor Device of the present invention;

Fig. 4 is the data transmission synoptic diagram of mobile device of the present invention;

Fig. 5 is the schematic flow sheet of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment of the present invention.

Wherein: 1, direct current transportation wall bushing; 2, preventive trial instrument; 21, dielectric loss tester; 22, gas composition analyser; 23, little water gaging instrument; 24, temperature measuring set; 25, gas-pressure survey meter; 26, direct current resistance measurer; 27, filthy measuring instrument; 3, on-Line Monitor Device; 31, environment temperature on-line monitoring instrument; 32, ambient humidity on-line monitoring instrument; 33, surface filth on-line monitoring instrument; 34, electric capacity and the dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument of end screen; 35, SF ₆Density on-line monitoring instrument; 36, pressure on-line monitoring instrument; 37, micro-water content on-line monitoring instrument; 38, gas composition on-line monitoring instrument; 4, mobile device; 5, communication device; 51, first radio receiving transmitting module; 52, second radio receiving transmitting module; 53, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module; 54, the 4th radio receiving transmitting module; 6, risk assessment center.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments content of the present invention is described in further details.

Embodiment:

See also shown in Figure 1ly, direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system of the present invention includes direct current transportation wall bushing 1, preventive trial instrument 2, on-Line Monitor Device 3, mobile device 4, communication device 5 and risk assessment center 6 is formed.Preventive trial instrument 2 obtains the preventive trial data of direct current transportation wall bushing 1, on-Line Monitor Device 3 is used for obtaining the online monitoring data of direct current transportation wall bushing, mobile device 4 is used for the data of record manual patrol, communication device 5 is responsible for the data of preventive trial data, online monitoring data, manual patrol, is transferred to risk assessment center 6, the risk assessment of direct current transportation wall bushing 1 is realized according to above-mentioned data in risk assessment center 6, for the safe and reliable operation of straight-flow system provides foundation.

See also shown in Figure 2, preventive trial instrument 2 comprises dielectric loss tester 21, gas composition analyser 22, little water gaging instrument 23, temperature measuring set 24, gas-pressure survey meter 25, direct current resistance measurer 26, filthy measuring instrument 27, their input end all is connected with direct current transportation wall bushing 1, output terminal all is connected with first radio receiving transmitting module 51, also is connected with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 and risk assessment center 6 in turn at the opposite side of first radio receiving transmitting module 51.Wherein, be wireless connections between preventive trial instrument 2 and first radio receiving transmitting module 51; Risk assessment center 6 is connected with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 by serial ports; First radio receiving transmitting module 51 is connected to the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 through wireless network, realizes that the preventive trial data transmission is to risk assessment center 6.

See also shown in Figure 3, transmission structure with preventive trial instrument 2 is similar, and on-Line Monitor Device 3 comprises environment temperature on-line monitoring instrument 31, ambient humidity on-line monitoring instrument 32, surface filth on-line monitoring instrument 33, last electric capacity of shielding and dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument 34, SF ₆Density on-line monitoring instrument 35, pressure on-line monitoring instrument 36, micro-water content on-line monitoring instrument 37 and gas composition on-line monitoring instrument 38, their input end all is connected with direct current transportation wall bushing 1, output terminal all is connected with second radio receiving transmitting module 52.Opposite side at second radio receiving transmitting module 52 also is connected with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 and risk assessment center 6 in turn.

See also shown in Figure 4, mobile device 4 is a kind of mobile electronic devices with the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53, the temperature and pressure data that its data read by scene tour personnel also deposit data in this mobile electronic device, and sent by the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53, also be connected with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 and risk assessment center 6 in turn at the opposite side of the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53.

In conjunction with Fig. 2-4 as can be known, communication device 5 comprises first radio receiving transmitting module 51 that links to each other with the output terminal of preventive trial instrument 2, second radio receiving transmitting module 52 that links to each other with the output terminal of on-Line Monitor Device 3, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53 that links to each other with the output terminal of mobile device 4 and be integrated in one with this mobile device 4, and the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 that links to each other with the input end at risk assessment center 6, wherein, first radio receiving transmitting module 51, second radio receiving transmitting module 52, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53 all carries out data transmission with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 by wireless network.

In the present embodiment, direct current transportation wall bushing 1 adopts HSP HOCHSPANNUNGSGERATE KOLN/GERMAN direct current transportation wall bushing, first radio receiving transmitting module 51, second radio receiving transmitting module 52, the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module 53, the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54 all adopts the R-8552/8554GPRS DTU of GEMOTECH, dielectric loss tester 21 adopts the YHJS-IV dielectric loss instrument of the suitable great electric Science and Technology Ltd. in Shanghai, gas composition analyser 22 adopts the GC-7960 type gas chromatograph of Tengzhou City Alan Analytical Instrument Co., Ltd, and little water gaging instrument 23 adopts the RTWS-242SF of China day electric power company ₆Little water gaging instrument, temperature measuring set 24 adopts the DSC-DTSnK-XB of Dien instrument, gas-pressure survey meter 25 adopts the HQ-SY-C precision digital tensimeter of red flag instrument, direct current resistance measurer 26 adopts the PC57 direct current resistance measurer of Shanghai Tai Ou Electronics Co., Ltd., filthy measuring instrument 27 adopts the NDYMD digital direct-reading type intelligence salt density test instrument of electric magnificent source, south, Wuhan Electric Applicance Co., Ltd, the PowerEdge R410 of Dell is adopted at risk assessment center 6, environment temperature on-line monitoring instrument 31 adopts the DSC-DTSnK-XB of Beijing Dien Kang Shuo development in science and technology company limited, ambient humidity on-line monitoring instrument 32 adopts ETH-P16 type environmental test equipment temperature and humidity inspection instrument, surface filth on-line monitoring instrument 33 adopts the NDYMD digital direct-reading type intelligence salt density test instrument of electric magnificent source, south, Wuhan Electric Applicance Co., Ltd, the electric capacity of end screen and dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument 34 adopt the ZF-800-3 type capacitive apparatus on-line monitoring instrument that divides in the Henan, SF ₆The Y-100-type of the extraordinary instrucment and meter plant in Yichang that adopts of density on-line monitoring instrument 35, pressure on-line monitoring instrument 36 adopts the HQ-SY-C precision digital tensimeter of red flag instrument, micro-water content on-line monitoring instrument 37 adopts the RTWS-242SF of China day electric power companies ₆Little water gaging instrument, gas composition on-line monitoring instrument 38 adopts the GC-7960 type gas chromatograph of Tengzhou City Alan Analytical Instrument Co., Ltd, and mobile device 4 adopts the G23One X type of HTC company.

See also Fig. 5.The risk assessment center 6 of direct current transportation wall bushing is according to preventive trial data, on-Line Monitor Device data, makes an inspection tour risk assessment that data carry out direct current transportation wall bushing 1, and its method step is as follows:

The characteristic quantity of S101, the risk assessment of extraction direct current transportation wall bushing.

Preventive trial data, online monitoring data, the tour data obtained according to the 4th radio receiving transmitting module 54, extract the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, described feature value is formed vectorial C, this vector C is 1 * B dimensional vector, B is the characteristic component sum of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, in the present embodiment, and B=20, according to monitoring result, obtain vectorial C shown in data (5):

$C=\left[\begin{array}{c}3.5\\ 2.6\\ \·\\ \·\\ \·\\ 2.07\end{array}\right]$ （5）

Wherein, each characteristic quantity C of vectorial C _j(j is not more than 20 positive integer) represents respectively: characteristic quantity C ₁Be the insulation resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₂Be the electric capacity of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₃Be the dielectric loss amount of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₄For shielding the insulation resistance of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end; Characteristic quantity C ₅For shielding the electric capacity of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end; Characteristic quantity C ₆For shielding the dielectric loss amount of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end; Characteristic quantity C ₇Direct current resistance for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₈Pressure for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₉Gas composition for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₁₀Filth value for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial; Characteristic quantity C ₁₁Environment temperature for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₂Ambient humidity for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₃Filth value for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₄Electric capacity and dielectric loss for the end of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring screen; Characteristic quantity C ₁₅The SF that tests for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring ₆The density of gas; Characteristic quantity C ₁₆Pressure for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₇Little water for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₈Gas composition for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring; Characteristic quantity C ₁₉Pressure for the tour of direct current transportation wall bushing; Characteristic quantity C ₂₀Temperature for the tour of direct current transportation wall bushing.

S102, set up the fault mode of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system.

According to system's composition function of direct current transportation wall bushing, set up at sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, screen unit, end, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆The fault type of gas cell, described fault type comprises function code, fault mode code, failure-description simultaneously.Its fault mode result such as table 1:

Table 1

S103, set up the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment.

According to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system, set up the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment; Each characteristic quantity C with vectorial C _jDemand value be divided into higher limit a _jOr lower limit b _j, adopt the calculating formula of fault probability of happening suc as formula (6) and (7) respectively, and form fault probability of happening vector D:

$D_j=\frac{C_j^{2.3}}{C_j^{2.3}+{a_j}^{2.3}}$ （6）

$D_j=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0.46-0.46\sin \frac{3.11}{1.96^{*}{b}_j}(C_j-0.93^{*}{b}_j)& C_j\≤{2b}_j\\ 0& C_j>{2b}_j\end{array}\right.$ （7）

In the present embodiment, each characteristic quantity C _jCorresponding higher limit a _jWith lower limit b _jAs follows: b ₁=10G Ω; b ₂=-5%; a ₃=0.8; b ₄=1G Ω; b ₅=-5%; b ₆=-2%; b ₇=-1%; b ₈=8Mpa; a ₉=100 μ L/L; a ₁₀=0.3mg/cm ²a ₁₁=80 ℃; a ₁₂=85%; a ₁₃=0.3mg/cm ²b ₁₄=-2%; b ₁₅=8kg/m ³b ₁₆=8MPa; a ₁₇=500 μ L/L; a ₁₈=100 μ L/L; b ₁₉=8MPa; a ₂₀=30 ℃, with above-mentioned value and data (5) substitution formulas (6) and (7), trying to achieve fault probability of happening vector D is 1 * 20 dimensional vector:

$D=\left[\begin{array}{c}0.35\\ 0.15\\ \\ \·\\ \·\\ 0.023\end{array}\right]$ （8）

S104, the risk probability of happening of setting up the direct current transportation wall bushing and the incidence matrix between the fault mode.

According to the risk probability of happening that the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment is set up, set up incidence matrix M in conjunction with the relation of characteristic quantity and fault mode, its size is E * B, wherein E represents the sum of fault mode, the element M of its incidence matrix M _IjComputing method suc as formula (9):

$M_{\mathrm{ij}}=\frac{\underset{j}{\min }\underset{i}{\min }|D_j-D_i|}{|D_j-D_i|}$ （9）

D in the formula _jAnd D _iRepresent j and i kind fault probability of happening vector components respectively, in the present embodiment, there are 6 kinds of fault types to amount to 17 kinds of fault modes (being E=17) as shown in Table 1, therefore, in the present embodiment, i is not more than 17 positive integer, and data (8) substitution formulas (9) can be obtained 17 * 20 relational matrix M that tie up shown in data (10):

$M=\left[\begin{array}{cccc}0.22& 0.13& \·\·\·& 0.29\\ 0.19& 0.02& \·\·\·& 0.31\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ 0.61& 0.15& \·\·\·& 0.18\end{array}\right]$ （10）

S105, the risk assessment of setting up direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment.

According to characteristic quantity, risk probability of happening and the fault mode incidence matrix of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment, set up at sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, screen unit, end, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆The risk assessment of gas cell, its computing method are suc as formula (11);

$A_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{B}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(M_{i\×j}\·{D_j}^{*}\frac{{1-H}_j}{1.35-\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{H}_k})$ （11）

A in the formula _iBe i kind fault mode, H _jAnd H _kRepresent j and k(obviously as can be seen k be the positive integer that is not more than j) entropy of individual characteristic quantity, the span of this entropy is (0,0.65), data (8) and data (10) substitution formulas (11) can be got 1 * 17 risk assessment vector A that ties up shown in data (12):

$A=\left[\begin{array}{c}{A}_1\\ {\mathrm{<figure-callout\; id="2"\; label="A"\; filenames="HDA00003117592000011.png"\; state="\{\{state\}\}">A</figure-callout>}}_2\\ \&CenterDot;\\ \&CenterDot;\\ \&CenterDot;\\ A_{17}\end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{c}0.023\\ 0.19\\ \&CenterDot;\\ \&CenterDot;\\ \&CenterDot;\\ 0.046\end{array}\right]$ （12）

Therefore can judge that according to above-mentioned data (12) the loose contact value-at-risk of the sleeve pipe fuse of direct current transportation wall bushing is 0.023, it is 0.19 that value-at-risk is put in the office of the sleeve pipe fuse of direct current transportation wall bushing, the value-at-risk of other fault modes, the maximal value of each unit risk assessment value is 0.538(is not shown simultaneously) as the value-at-risk of direct current transportation wall bushing.

Effect analysis: by the analysis of above-mentioned example, the loose contact value-at-risk that can judge the sleeve pipe fuse of direct current transportation wall bushing is 0.023, it is 0.19 that value-at-risk is put in the office of the sleeve pipe fuse of direct current transportation wall bushing, the value-at-risk of the wall bushing of direct current transportation simultaneously is 0.538, therefore this method is based on preventive trial, online monitoring data, the manual patrol data are carried out the risk assessment of the direct current transportation wall bushing of system, break through the at present single risk assessment of carrying out at preventive trial or online monitoring data or manual patrol data simultaneously, improve the reliable rate of straight-flow system.

Present embodiment applies to:

1, ± risk assessment of 500kV and above electric pressure direct current transportation wall bushing;

2, ± operation risk analysis, repair based on condition of component, the aid decision making of 500kV and above electric pressure direct current transportation wall bushing.

Above-listed detailed description is at the specifying of possible embodiments of the present invention, and this embodiment is not in order to limiting claim of the present invention, and the equivalence that all the present invention of disengaging do is implemented or change, all should be contained in the claim of this case.

Claims (9)

1. a direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system is characterized in that it comprises: the preventive trial instrument (2) that is used for direct current transportation wall bushing (1) is carried out preventive trial; Be used for direct current transportation wall bushing (1) is carried out the on-Line Monitor Device (3) of on-line monitoring; For the mobile device (4) that direct current transportation wall bushing (1) is maked an inspection tour; For the risk assessment center (6) that the risk of direct current transportation wall bushing (1) is analyzed; And the familial defective data of the tour data upload of the preventive trial data that are used for described preventive trial instrument (2) is obtained, online monitoring data that on-Line Monitor Device (3) is obtained, mobile device (4) record all is sent to the communication device (5) of risk assessment center (6).

2. direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described communication device (5) comprises first radio receiving transmitting module (51) that links to each other with the output terminal of preventive trial instrument (2), second radio receiving transmitting module (52) that links to each other with the output terminal of on-Line Monitor Device (3), the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module (53) that links to each other with the output terminal of mobile device (4), and the 4th radio receiving transmitting module (54) that links to each other with the input end of risk assessment center (6), described first radio receiving transmitting module (51), second radio receiving transmitting module (52), the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module (53) all carries out data transmission with the 4th radio receiving transmitting module (54) by wireless network.

3. direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system according to claim 2, it is characterized in that described preventive trial instrument (2) comprises dielectric loss tester (21), gas composition analyser (22), little water gaging instrument (23), temperature measuring set (24), gas-pressure survey meter (25), direct current resistance measurer (26), the filthy measuring instrument (27) that is connected between direct current transportation wall bushing (1) and first radio receiving transmitting module (51).

4. direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system according to claim 2, it is characterized in that described on-Line Monitor Device (3) comprises environment temperature on-line monitoring instrument (31), ambient humidity on-line monitoring instrument (32), surface filth on-line monitoring instrument (33), last electric capacity of shielding and dielectric loss on-line monitoring instrument (34), the SF that is connected between direct current transportation wall bushing (1) and second radio receiving transmitting module (52) ₆Density on-line monitoring instrument (35), pressure on-line monitoring instrument (36), micro-water content on-line monitoring instrument (37) and gas composition on-line monitoring instrument (38).

5. direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system according to claim 2, it is characterized in that, described first radio receiving transmitting module (51), second radio receiving transmitting module (52), the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module (53) and the 4th radio receiving transmitting module (54) are the GPRS module, and the 3rd radio receiving transmitting module (53) is integrated in the mobile device (4).

6. the method that adopts each described direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system of claim 1-5 to carry out risk assessment is characterized in that it may further comprise the steps:

(1) according to preventive trial data, online monitoring data, tour data, extract the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment, described feature value is formed vectorial C, and described vectorial C is 1 * B dimensional vector, and B is the characteristic quantity sum of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment;

(2) based on the composition function of direct current transportation wall bushing, set up at sleeving core subelement, capacitor core unit, screen unit, end, grading ring unit, silastic material unit, SF ₆The fault type of gas cell, described fault type comprise function code, fault mode code, failure-description;

(3) according to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing risk evaluating system, set up the risk probability of happening of direct current transportation wall bushing risk assessment; Each characteristic quantity C with vectorial C _jDemand value be divided into higher limit a _jOr lower limit b _j, adopting the calculating formula of fault probability of happening suc as formula (1) and (2) respectively, and form fault probability of happening vector D, described fault probability of happening vector D is 1 * B dimensional vector;

$D_j=\frac{C_j^{2.3}}{C_j^{2.3}+{a_j}^{2.3}}$ （1）

$D_j=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0.46-0.46\sin \frac{3.11}{1.96^{*}{b}_j}(C_j-0.93^{*}{b}_j)& C_j\&le;{2b}_j\\ 0& C_j>{2b}_j\end{array}\right.$ （2）

(4) the risk probability of happening of setting up according to the characteristic quantity of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment is set up incidence matrix M in conjunction with the relation of characteristic quantity and fault mode, and its size is E * B, and wherein E represents the sum of fault mode, the element M of its incidence matrix M _IjComputing method suc as formula (3):

$M_{\mathrm{ij}}=\frac{\underset{j}{\min }\underset{i}{\min }|D_j-D_i|}{|D_j-D_i|}$ （3）

D in the formula _jAnd D _iRepresent j and i kind fault probability of happening vector components respectively, i and j are all positive integer and 1≤i≤E, 1≤j≤B;

(5) according to characteristic quantity, risk probability of happening and the fault mode incidence matrix of direct current transportation wall bushing methods of risk assessment, foundation is at the risk assessment vector A of sleeve pipe fuse, capacitor core, last screen, grading ring, silastic material, SF6 gas cell, and its computing method are suc as formula (4);

$A_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{B}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}(M_{i\&times;j}\&CenterDot;{D_j}^{*}\frac{{1-H}_j}{1.35-\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{H}_k})$ （4）

A in the formula _iBe the risk assessment component of i kind fault mode, H _jAnd H _kThe entropy of representing a j and k characteristic quantity, the span of described entropy are (0,0.65).

7. method according to claim 6 is characterized in that, described B=20, wherein:

Characteristic quantity C ₁Be the insulation resistance of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₂Be the electric capacity of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₃Be the dielectric loss amount of direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod to end screen preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₄For shielding the insulation resistance of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end;

Characteristic quantity C ₅For shielding the electric capacity of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end;

Characteristic quantity C ₆For shielding the dielectric loss amount of preventive trial over the ground in direct current transportation wall bushing end;

Characteristic quantity C ₇Direct current resistance for direct current transportation wall bushing guide rod preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₈Pressure for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₉Gas composition for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₀Filth value for direct current transportation wall bushing preventive trial;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₁Environment temperature for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₂Ambient humidity for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₃Filth value for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₄Electric capacity and dielectric loss for the end of direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring screen;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₅The SF that tests for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring ₆The density of gas;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₆Pressure for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₇Little water for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₈Gas composition for direct current transportation wall bushing on-line monitoring;

Characteristic quantity C ₁₉Pressure for the tour of direct current transportation wall bushing;

Characteristic quantity C ₂₀Temperature for the tour of direct current transportation wall bushing.

8. method according to claim 7 is characterized in that, each characteristic quantity C _jCorresponding higher limit a _jOr lower limit b _jAs follows: b ₁=10G Ω; b ₂=-5%, a ₃=0.8; b ₄=1G Ω; b ₅=-5%; b ₆=-2%; b ₇=-1%; b ₈=8Mpa; a ₉=100 μ L/L; a ₁₀=0.3mg/cm ²a ₁₁=80 ℃; a ₁₂=85%; a ₁₃=0.3mg/cm ²B14=-2%; B15=8kg/m ³b ₁₆=8MPa; a ₁₇=500 μ L/L; a ₁₈=100 μ L/L; b ₁₉=8MPa; a ₂₀=30 ℃.

9. method according to claim 6 is characterized in that, described E=17, wherein:

The fault type of described sleeving core subelement comprises function code A _I, the fault mode code is A ₁, described A ₁Failure-description be the loose contact of sleeve pipe fuse, the fault mode code is A ₂, described A ₂Failure-description be the shelf depreciation of sleeve pipe fuse;

The fault type of described capacitor core unit comprises function code A _II, the fault mode code is A ₃, described A ₃Failure-description be that capacitor core makes moist, the fault mode code is A ₄, described A ₄Failure-description be the aging of capacitor core unit, the fault mode code is A ₅, described A ₅Failure-description be the shelf depreciation of capacitor core unit;

The fault type of screen unit, described end comprises function code A _III, the fault mode code is A ₆, described A ₆Fault mode make moist for end screen unit, the fault mode code is A ₇, described A ₇Failure-description be the unit insulation ag(e)ing of end screen, the fault mode code is A ₈, described A ₈Failure-description be end screen unit shelf depreciation;

The fault type of described grading ring unit comprises function code A _IV, the fault mode code is A ₉, described A ₉Failure-description be the corrosion of grading ring, the fault mode code is A ₁₀, described A ₁₀Failure-description be the filth of grading ring unit;

The fault type of described silastic material unit comprises function code A _V, the fault mode code is A ₁₁, described A ₁₁Failure-description be the aging of silastic material unit, the fault mode code is A ₁₂, described A ₁₂Failure-description be the filth of silastic material unit, the fault mode code is A ₁₃, described A ₁₃Failure-description be the cracking of silastic material unit;

Described SF ₆The fault type of gas cell comprises function code A _VI, the fault mode code is A ₁₄, described A ₁₄Failure-description be SF ₆The hypotony of gas cell, fault mode code are A ₁₅, described A ₁₅Failure-description be SF ₆The gas leakage of gas cell, fault mode code are A ₁₆, described A ₁₆Failure-description be SF ₆Making moist of gas cell, fault mode code are A ₁₇, described A ₁₇Failure-description be SF ₆The discharge of gas cell.

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