CN103218525A - Risk assessment system - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk assessment system, which comprises a risk assessment factor information acquisition subsystem, an expert judgment input module, a possibility and severity quantification subsystem and a risk display subsystem. The risk assessment system quantifies the possibility and severity of a risk source to obtain possibility and severity quantification parameters, takes the possibility and severity quantification parameters as an absolute coordinate of a possibility-severity coordinate system, and defines the risk area of the possibility-severity coordinate system, thereby overcoming the discrete problem, and strictly defining the risk value.

Description

A kind of risk assessment system

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of data handling system, especially relate to a kind of risk assessment system.

Background technology

Develop rapidly along with world civil aviaton industry, the complicacy of aviation operation and and risk increase day by day, this just needs more advanced risk management system, can provide the means that reduce risk for aviation operation, thereby the reach of safety critical point can be realized the sustainable development of civil aviaton's industry.

The air traffic control industry is the important leverage department of aviation safety in civil aviaton's critical positions that occupies in service.Therefore, the risk management of blank pipe operation just becomes the important component part of aviation operation safety.

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) requires each contracting party to carry out the research and the construction of security management system, and has issued No. 9859 file of safety management handbook SMM(ICAO on the basis at American-European mature experience in 2005, is called for short 9859 handbooks).CAAC has carried out the building-up work of security management system (SMS) as requested, and air traffic control system also under unified arrangement of civil aviation authority, builds up the SMS that meets own industry requirement.

The core of SMS system is to be driving with information, and risk management is a core.According to 9859 handbooks, risk assessment should be analyzed its possibility, also will analyze its seriousness.For the two 9859 handbook it is divided into 5 grades respectively, constitutes risk Metrics (as Fig. 1).And being product by possibility and seriousness, value-at-risk obtains.In actual applications, this risk Metrics can not satisfy the requirement of risk quantification location, exists data discrete to cause accurately judging the defective of drop point.

Summary of the invention

In view of this, be necessary to satisfy the requirement of risk quantification location, exist data discrete to cause accurately to judge the defective of drop point, a kind of risk assessment system is provided at risk Metrics in 9859 handbooks.This risk assessment system after with the quantification in risk source possibility and seriousness as coordinate at possibility-seriousness coordinate system, and each zone of defining risk, thus overcome discrete problem, value-at-risk has been carried out strict defining.

The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:

A kind of risk assessment system comprises that the risk assessment factor information obtains subsystem, expert judging load module, possibility and seriousness and quantize subsystem, risk display subsystem;

Wherein, the risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem, is used to obtain the risk assessment factor information, and output risk assessment factor information; Described risk assessment factor information comprises the concrete title of risk assessment factor, various parameters etc.;

The expert judging load module, be used to receive the expert and each risk assessment factor under different conditions caused occurring value weight, the possibility contrast weight of the possibility grade of dangerous matter sources based on the fuzzy analysis method, and the value weight of seriousness grade, seriousness contrast weight; Be worth weight, contrast weight respectively by each expert according to oneself experience and viewpoint to its assignment; Be worth weight and just be meant when this dangerous matter sources exists the possibility of single risk assessment factor correspondence, the numerical value of seriousness; And the contrast weight also is to rely on the expert judging assignment fully, is the fiducial value to weight between each risk assessment factor;

Possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem, be used to receive the risk assessment factor information that the risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem output, and each risk assessment factor under different conditions of receiving of expert judging load module causes occurring value weight, the possibility contrast weight of the possibility grade of dangerous matter sources, and the value weight of seriousness grade, seriousness contrast weight; Quantize each risk assessment factor by mathematical model again and cause dangerous matter sources possibility, seriousness, obtain possibility, seriousness quantization parameter;

The risk display subsystem is used to receive possibility, seriousness quantization parameter, and with possibility, seriousness quantization parameter as the absolute coordinates in possibility-seriousness coordinate system, and be shown in possibility-seriousness coordinate system; Zones of different is divided according to value-at-risk in the zone of described possibility-seriousness coordinate system; Described value-at-risk is the possibility after quantizing and the product of seriousness parameter.

Further, described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and comprise dangerous matter sources possibility quantization modules, and described dangerous matter sources possibility quantization modules obtains dangerous matter sources possibility quantization parameter by mathematical model one, and mathematical model one is:

P＝e ₁h ₁+e ₂h ₂+......+e _mh _m

$A=(a_1,a_2,......,a_p),\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{a}_i=1$

$R=\left[\begin{array}{c}R|u_1\\ R|u_2\\ ...\\ R|u_p\end{array}\right]={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{r}_{11}& r_{12}& ...& r_{1m}\\ r_{21}& r_{22}& ...& r_{2m}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ r_{p1}& r_{p2}& ...& r_{\mathrm{pm}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.m}$

$C={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{c}_{11}& c_{12}& ...& c_{1p}\\ c_{21}& c_{22}& ...& c_{2p}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ c_{p1}& c_{p2}& ...& c_{\mathrm{pp}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.p}$

Wherein, P is a dangerous matter sources possibility quantization parameter, and it is V=(v that the possibility grade is formed possibility grade territory ₁, v ₂..., v _m), h _i(i=1,2 ..., m) be each possibility grade v _iQuantized value, E are the fuzzy synthesis possibility evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources, and A is the proper vector of possibility contrast judgment matrix C, and R is a possibility degree of membership matrix, u _i(i=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor, ri _j(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., be that dangerous matter sources is from risk assessment factor u m) _iTo v _jDegree of membership, i.e. r _IjBe u _iTo v _jPossibility be worth weight, c _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor u _iTo u _jPossibility contrast weight.

Described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization modules, and described dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization modules obtains dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization parameter by mathematical model two, and mathematical model two is:

S＝f ₁k ₁+f ₂k ₂+......+f _nk _n

$B=(b_1,b_2,......,b_p),\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{b}_i=1$

$T=\left[\begin{array}{c}T|u_1\\ T|u_2\\ ...\\ T|u_p\end{array}\right]={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{t}_{11}& t_{12}& ...& t_{1m}\\ t_{21}& t_{22}& ...& t_{2m}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ t_{p1}& t_{p2}& ...& t_{\mathrm{pm}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.n}$

$D{\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{d}_{11}& d_{12}& ...& d_{1p}\\ d_{21}& d_{22}& ...& d_{2p}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ d_{p1}& d_{p2}& ...& d_{\mathrm{pp}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.p}$

Wherein, S is a dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization parameter, and it is W=(w that the seriousness grade is formed seriousness grade territory ₁, w ₂..., w _n), k _i(i=1,2 ..., n) be each seriousness grade w _iQuantized value, F are the fuzzy synthesis seriousness evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources, and B is the proper vector of seriousness contrast judgment matrix D, and T is a seriousness degree of membership matrix, u _i(i=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor, t _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., be that dangerous matter sources is from risk assessment factor u n) _iTo w _jDegree of membership, i.e. t _IjBe u _iTo w _jSeriousness be worth weight, d _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor u _iTo u _jSeriousness contrast weight.

Further, described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise possibility thinking consistency check module, described possibility thinking consistency check module is carried out the thinking consistency check by the possibility contrast weight of the risk assessment factor that three pairs of expert judging load modules of mathematical model receive, and mathematical model three is:

${\mathrm{CR}}_1=\frac{{\mathrm{CI}}_1}{{\mathrm{RI}}_1}$

${\mathrm{CI}}_1=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max 1}-p}{p-1}$

Wherein, CR ₁Be possibility Consistency Ratio at random, CI ₁Be possibility coincident indicator, RI ₁Be possibility mean random coincident indicator, λ _Max1Be the maximum characteristic root of proper vector A, p is the quantity of risk assessment factor; CR ₁Less than 0.1 o'clock, possibility contrast weight met the thinking consistance; CR ₁More than or equal to 0.1 o'clock, the possibility contrast weight of the factor of evaluation of possibility thinking consistency check module prompting expert judging load module input did not meet the thinking consistance, need re-enter the possibility contrast weight of factor of evaluation.

Described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise seriousness thinking consistency check module, described seriousness thinking consistency check module is carried out the thinking consistency check by the seriousness contrast weight of the risk assessment factor that four pairs of expert judging load modules of mathematical model receive, and mathematical model four is:

${\mathrm{CR}}_2=\frac{{\mathrm{CI}}_2}{{\mathrm{RI}}_2}$

${\mathrm{CI}}_2=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max 2}-p}{p-1}$

Wherein, CR ₂Be seriousness Consistency Ratio at random, CI ₂Be seriousness coincident indicator, RI ₂Be seriousness mean random coincident indicator, λ _Max2Be the maximum characteristic root of proper vector B, p is the quantity of risk assessment factor; CR ₂Less than 0.1 o'clock, seriousness contrast weight met the thinking consistance; CR ₂More than or equal to 0.1 o'clock, the seriousness contrast weight of the factor of evaluation of seriousness thinking consistency check module prompting expert judging load module input did not meet the thinking consistance, need re-enter the seriousness contrast weight of factor of evaluation.

Further, in the possibility of described risk display subsystem-seriousness coordinate system, be that the curve of some constants is divided each zone with value-at-risk.

With respect to prior art, beneficial effect of the present invention is: possibility after the quantification in risk source and seriousness are as the coordinate that defines each the regional possibility-seriousness coordinate system of risk, and dividing region can define according to the size of value-at-risk, thereby overcome discrete problem, value-at-risk has been carried out strict defining.

Description of drawings

Figure 1 shows that the wherein composition diagram of a kind of embodiment of the present invention.

Figure 2 shows that the workflow diagram of risk assessment shown in Figure 1 system.

Figure 3 shows that the synoptic diagram of the possibility-seriousness coordinate system of risk assessment shown in Figure 1 system.

Embodiment

For the ease of it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the present invention is described further below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment.

Figure 1 shows that wherein a kind of embodiment of risk assessment of the present invention system.

This risk assessment system comprises

A kind of risk assessment system comprises that the risk assessment factor information obtains subsystem, expert judging load module, possibility and seriousness and quantize subsystem, risk display subsystem;

Wherein, the risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem, is used to obtain the risk assessment factor information, and output risk assessment factor information; Described risk assessment factor information comprises the concrete title of risk assessment factor, various parameters etc.;

The expert judging load module, be used to receive the expert and each risk assessment factor under different conditions caused occurring value weight, the possibility contrast weight of the possibility grade of dangerous matter sources based on the fuzzy analysis method, and the value weight of seriousness grade, seriousness contrast weight; Be worth weight, contrast weight respectively by each expert according to oneself experience and viewpoint to its assignment; Be worth weight and just be meant when this dangerous matter sources exists the possibility of single risk assessment factor correspondence, the numerical value of seriousness; And the contrast weight also is to rely on the expert judging assignment fully, is the fiducial value to weight between each risk assessment factor;

Possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem, be used to receive the risk assessment factor information that the risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem output, and each risk assessment factor under different conditions of receiving of expert judging load module causes occurring value weight, the possibility contrast weight of the possibility grade of dangerous matter sources, and the value weight of seriousness grade, seriousness contrast weight; Quantize each risk assessment factor by mathematical model again and cause dangerous matter sources possibility, seriousness, obtain possibility, seriousness quantization parameter;

The risk display subsystem is used to receive possibility, seriousness quantization parameter, and with possibility, seriousness quantization parameter as the absolute coordinates in possibility-seriousness coordinate system, and be shown in possibility-seriousness coordinate system; The zone of described possibility-seriousness coordinate system is that the curve of some constants is divided zones of different with value-at-risk; Described value-at-risk is the possibility after quantizing and the product of seriousness parameter.

Described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and comprise dangerous matter sources possibility quantization modules, and described dangerous matter sources possibility quantization modules obtains dangerous matter sources possibility quantization parameter by mathematical model one, and mathematical model one is:

P＝e ₁h ₁+e ₂h ₂+......+e _mh _m

$A=(a_1,a_2,......,a_p),\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{a}_i=1$

$R=\left[\begin{array}{c}R|u_1\\ R|u_2\\ ...\\ R|u_p\end{array}\right]={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{r}_{11}& r_{12}& ...& r_{1m}\\ r_{21}& r_{22}& ...& r_{2m}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ r_{p1}& r_{p2}& ...& r_{\mathrm{pm}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.m}$

$C={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{c}_{11}& c_{12}& ...& c_{1p}\\ c_{21}& c_{22}& ...& c_{2p}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ c_{p1}& c_{p2}& ...& c_{\mathrm{pp}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.p}$

Wherein, P is a dangerous matter sources possibility quantization parameter, and it is V=(v that the possibility grade is formed possibility grade territory ₁, v ₂..., v _m), h _i(i=1,2 ..., m) be each possibility grade v _iQuantized value, E are the fuzzy synthesis possibility evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources, and A is the proper vector of possibility contrast judgment matrix C, and R is a possibility degree of membership matrix, u _i(i=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor, r _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., be that dangerous matter sources is from risk assessment factor u m) _iTo v _jDegree of membership, i.e. r _IjBe u _iTo v _jPossibility be worth weight, c _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor u _iTo u _jPossibility contrast weight.

Described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization modules, and described dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization modules obtains dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization parameter by mathematical model two, and mathematical model two is:

S＝f ₁k ₁+f ₂k ₂+......+f _nk _n

$B=(b_1,b_2,......,b_p),\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{b}_i=1$

$T=\left[\begin{array}{c}T|u_1\\ T|u_2\\ ...\\ T|u_p\end{array}\right]={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{t}_{11}& t_{12}& ...& t_{1m}\\ t_{21}& t_{22}& ...& t_{2m}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ t_{p1}& t_{p2}& ...& t_{\mathrm{pm}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.n}$

$D{\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{d}_{11}& d_{12}& ...& d_{1p}\\ d_{21}& d_{22}& ...& d_{2p}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ d_{p1}& d_{p2}& ...& d_{\mathrm{pp}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.p}$

Wherein, S is a dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization parameter, and it is W=(w that the seriousness grade is formed seriousness grade territory ₁, w ₂..., w _n), k _i(i=1,2 ..., n) be each seriousness grade w _iQuantized value, F are the fuzzy synthesis seriousness evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources, and B is the proper vector of seriousness contrast judgment matrix D, and T is a seriousness degree of membership matrix, u _i(i=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor, t _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., be that dangerous matter sources is from risk assessment factor u n) _iTo w _jDegree of membership, i.e. t _IjBe u _iTo w _jSeriousness be worth weight, d _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor u _iTo u _jSeriousness contrast weight.

Described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise possibility thinking consistency check module, described possibility thinking consistency check module is carried out the thinking consistency check by the possibility contrast weight of the risk assessment factor that three pairs of expert judging load modules of mathematical model receive, and mathematical model three is:

${\mathrm{CR}}_1=\frac{{\mathrm{CI}}_1}{{\mathrm{RI}}_1}$

${\mathrm{CI}}_1=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max 1}-p}{p-1}$

Wherein, CR ₁Be possibility Consistency Ratio at random, CI ₁Be possibility coincident indicator, RI ₁Be possibility mean random coincident indicator, λ _Max1Be the maximum characteristic root of proper vector A, p is the quantity of risk assessment factor; CR ₁Less than 0.1 o'clock, possibility contrast weight met the thinking consistance; CR ₁More than or equal to 0.1 o'clock, the possibility contrast weight of the factor of evaluation of possibility thinking consistency check module prompting expert judging load module input did not meet the thinking consistance, need re-enter the possibility contrast weight of factor of evaluation.

Described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise seriousness thinking consistency check module, described seriousness thinking consistency check module is carried out the thinking consistency check by the seriousness contrast weight of the risk assessment factor that four pairs of expert judging load modules of mathematical model receive, and mathematical model four is:

${\mathrm{CR}}_2=\frac{{\mathrm{CI}}_2}{{\mathrm{RI}}_2}$

${\mathrm{CI}}_2=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max 2}-p}{p-1}$

Wherein, CR ₂Be seriousness Consistency Ratio at random, CI ₂Be seriousness coincident indicator, RI ₂Be seriousness mean random coincident indicator, λ _Max2Be the maximum characteristic root of proper vector B, p is the quantity of risk assessment factor; CR ₂Less than 0.1 o'clock, seriousness contrast weight met the thinking consistance; CR ₂More than or equal to 0.1 o'clock, the seriousness contrast weight of the factor of evaluation of seriousness thinking consistency check module prompting expert judging load module input did not meet the thinking consistance, need re-enter the seriousness contrast weight of factor of evaluation.

The workflow of described risk assessment system is as follows:

1) risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem and is obtained the risk assessment factor information, and the risk assessment factor information is passed to possibility and seriousness quantification subsystem;

2) the expert judging load module receives the expert and based on the fuzzy analysis method each risk assessment factor under different conditions is caused occurring value weight, the possibility contrast weight of the possibility grade of dangerous matter sources, and the value weight of seriousness grade, seriousness contrast weight; And with value weight, the possibility contrast weight of the possibility grade of each factor of evaluation, and information such as the value weight of the seriousness grade of each factor of evaluation, seriousness contrast weight are sent to possibility and seriousness quantification subsystem;

3) possibility and seriousness quantification subsystem receives the information that the risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem, the transmission of expert judging load module, and obtains dangerous matter sources possibility, consistance quantization parameter by dangerous matter sources possibility quantization modules, dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization modules, possibility thinking consistency check module, seriousness thinking consistency check module; If the possibility of factor of evaluation and/or seriousness contrast weight do not meet the thinking consistance, then the possibility and/or the seriousness contrast weight of factor of evaluation re-entered in prompting; If the possibility of factor of evaluation and seriousness contrast weight meet the thinking consistance, then dangerous matter sources possibility, consistance quantization parameter are sent to the risk display subsystem;

4) the risk display subsystem receives dangerous matter sources possibility, consistance quantization parameter, and with dangerous matter sources possibility, consistance quantization parameter as the absolute coordinates in possibility-seriousness coordinate system, and be shown in possibility-seriousness coordinate system.

Risk assessment system to embodiment of the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiment of using above-mentioned risk assessment system in the traffic administration aloft.

Carry out risk assessment with " district transfers power supply to transform incident " this dangerous matter sources.

The risk assessment factor information is obtained the risk assessment factor that subsystem obtains and is comprised: the influence of foreign nationality's unit, controller's duty, teams and groups' resource management, airborne equipment state, control automated system state, radar terminal state, aerial weather condition, army's boat active situation, the cleanliness of workplace, control student's on-the-job training, the validity of risk management, control operation program; And the influence of foreign nationality's unit, controller's duty, teams and groups' resource management be classified as first class index " people ", airborne equipment state, control automated system state, radar terminal state are classified as first class index " equipment ", the cleanliness of aerial weather condition, army's boat active situation, workplace are classified as first class index " environment ", and control student's on-the-job training, the validity of risk management, control operation program are classified as first class index " management ".

The expert judging load module receives the expert and based on the fuzzy analysis method the above-mentioned risk assessment factor under different conditions is caused occurring value weight, the possibility contrast weight of the possibility grade of " district transfers power supply to transform incident ", and the value weight of seriousness grade, seriousness contrast weight; Wherein be divided into extremely can not, seldom may, may, quite may, fully may these five grades for the possibility grade, and the seriousness grade is divided into and can ignores, these five grades that are slight, serious, dangerous, disaster.

The risk assessment factor that the expert imports the expert judging load module causes occurring the data such as the table 1 of value weight of the possibility grade of " district transfers power supply to transform incident ":

The value weight of table 1 possibility grade

The risk assessment factor that the expert imports the expert judging load module causes the possibility of appearance " district transfers power supply to transform incident " to contrast data such as the table 2 and the table 3 of weight:

Table 2 possibility contrast weight

The people	The influence of foreign nationality's unit	Controller's duty	Teams and groups' resource management
				The influence of foreign nationality's unit	1	0.48750	0.86250
Controller's duty	2.05128	1	1.87500
				Teams and groups' resource management	1.15942	0.53333	1
Equipment	The airborne equipment state	Control automated system state	The radar terminal state
				The airborne equipment state	1	0.73750	0.61250
Control automated system state	1.35593	1	1.87500

[0085]?

The radar terminal state	1.63265	0.53333	1
				Environment	Aerial weather condition	Army's boat active situation	The cleanliness of workplace
Aerial weather condition	1	0.52083	0.75000
				Army's boat active situation	1.92000	1	0.91667
The cleanliness of workplace	1.33333	1.09091	1
				Management	Control student's on-the-job training	The validity of risk management	Control operation program
Control student's on-the-job training	1	0.50000	0.75000
				The validity of risk management	2.00000	1	0.41667
Control operation program	1.33333	2.40000	1

Table 3 first class index possibility contrast weight

?	The people	Equipment	Environment	Management
					The people	1	0.75000	0.83333	1.12500
Equipment	1.33333	1	1.33333	0.70833
					Environment	1.20000	0.75000	1	0.75000
Management	0.88889	1.41176	1.33333	1

Dangerous matter sources possibility quantization modules is handled by a pair of above-mentioned data of mathematical model, obtains

A _{The people}=(a _{1 people}, a _{2 people}, a _{3 people})=(0.15870,0.5480,0.29330)

A＝(0.21573,0.24697,0.23567,0.30163)

Each possibility grade quantizing: extremely impossible → numerical value 2, few possibility → numerical value 4, possibility → numerical value 6, quite possibility → 8, possibility → 10 fully.

P＝0.22967×2+0.65244×4+0.11770×6+0×8+0×10)＝3.7753

Dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization modules causes the value weight of the seriousness grade of appearance " district transfers power supply to transform incident ", seriousness contrast weight data to handle (omitting concrete data at this) by two pairs of above-mentioned risk assessment factors under different conditions of mathematical model, obtains S=4.0052.

Possibility thinking consistency check module, seriousness thinking consistency check module are carried out the thinking consistency check to judgment matrix, and obtaining at random, Consistency Ratio promptly meets the thinking consistance all less than 0.10.

The risk display subsystem receives possibility, the seriousness quantization parameter of " district transfers power supply to transform incident " of possibility and the transmission of seriousness quantification subsystem, with (4.0052,3.7753) as the absolute coordinates in possibility-seriousness coordinate system, and be shown in possibility-seriousness coordinate system, as shown in Figure 3.The ordinate of described possibility-seriousness coordinate system is a possibility, and horizontal ordinate is a seriousness; Ordinate is according to five intervals of possibility grade classification, wherein extremely impossible → [0,2], few possibility → numerical value (2,4], possibility → numerical value (4,6], quite may → (6,8], complete possible → (8,10]; Horizontal ordinate wherein can be ignored → [0,2] according to five intervals of seriousness grade classification, slight → numerical value (2,4], serious → numerical value (4,6], dangerous → (6,8], disaster → (8,10].Possibility-seriousness coordinate system is by value-at-risk curve Z=P * S=12, and value-at-risk curve Z=P * S=36 is divided into three zones; Value-at-risk be (36,100] region representation is unacceptable, value-at-risk be (12,36] region representation need alleviate; Value-at-risk is that [0,12] expression can be accepted.

The coordinate (4.0052,3.7753) in " district transfer power supply transform incident " be positioned at value-at-risk for (12,36] zone, expression need be taken measures to reduce risk.

The above embodiment has only expressed one embodiment of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but can not therefore be interpreted as the restriction to claim of the present invention.Should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with claims.

Claims (7)

1. risk assessment system is characterized in that:

Comprise that the risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem, expert judging load module, possibility and seriousness quantizes subsystem, risk display subsystem;

Wherein, the risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem, is used to obtain the risk assessment factor information, and output risk assessment factor information; Described risk assessment factor information comprises the concrete title of risk assessment factor, various parameters etc.;

The expert judging load module, be used to receive the expert and each risk assessment factor under different conditions caused occurring value weight, the possibility contrast weight of the possibility grade of dangerous matter sources based on the fuzzy analysis method, and the value weight of seriousness grade, seriousness contrast weight;

Possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem, be used to receive the risk assessment factor information that the risk assessment factor information is obtained subsystem output, and each risk assessment factor that the expert judging load module receives causes occurring the possibility of dangerous matter sources, the grade of seriousness under different conditions; Quantize each risk assessment factor by mathematical model again and cause dangerous matter sources possibility, seriousness, obtain possibility, seriousness quantization parameter;

The risk display subsystem is used to receive possibility, seriousness quantization parameter, and with possibility, seriousness quantization parameter as the absolute coordinates in possibility-seriousness coordinate system, and be shown in possibility-seriousness coordinate system; Zones of different is divided according to value-at-risk in the zone of described possibility-seriousness coordinate system; Described value-at-risk is the possibility after quantizing and the product of seriousness parameter.

2. risk assessment according to claim 1 system, it is characterized in that: described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and comprise dangerous matter sources possibility quantization modules, described dangerous matter sources possibility quantization modules obtains dangerous matter sources possibility quantization parameter by mathematical model one, and mathematical model one is:

P＝e ₁h ₁+e ₂h ₂+......+e _mh _m

$A=(a_1,a_2,......,a_p),\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{a}_i=1$

$R=\left[\begin{array}{c}R|u_1\\ R|u_2\\ ...\\ R|u_p\end{array}\right]={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{r}_{11}& r_{12}& ...& r_{1m}\\ r_{21}& r_{22}& ...& r_{2m}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ r_{p1}& r_{p2}& ...& r_{\mathrm{pm}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.m}$

$C={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{c}_{11}& c_{12}& ...& c_{1p}\\ c_{21}& c_{22}& ...& c_{2p}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ c_{p1}& c_{p2}& ...& c_{\mathrm{pp}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.p}$

Wherein, P is a dangerous matter sources possibility quantization parameter, and it is V=(v that the possibility grade is formed possibility grade territory ₁, v ₂..., v _m), h _i(i=1,2 ..., m) be each possibility grade v _iQuantized value, E are the fuzzy synthesis possibility evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources, and A is the proper vector of possibility contrast judgment matrix C, and R is a possibility degree of membership matrix, u _i(i=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor, r _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., be that dangerous matter sources is from risk assessment factor u m) _iTo v _jDegree of membership, i.e. r _IjBe u _iTo v _jPossibility be worth weight, c _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor u _iTo u _jPossibility contrast weight.

3. risk assessment according to claim 2 system, it is characterized in that: described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise possibility thinking consistency check module, described possibility thinking consistency check module is carried out the thinking consistency check by the possibility contrast weight of the risk assessment factor that three pairs of expert judging load modules of mathematical model receive, and mathematical model three is:

${\mathrm{CR}}_1=\frac{{\mathrm{CI}}_1}{{\mathrm{RI}}_1}$

${\mathrm{CI}}_1=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max 1}-p}{p-1}$

Wherein, CR ₁Be possibility Consistency Ratio at random, CI ₁Be possibility coincident indicator, RI ₁Be possibility mean random coincident indicator, λ _Max1Be the maximum characteristic root of proper vector A, p is the quantity of risk assessment factor; CR ₁Less than 0.1 o'clock, possibility contrast weight met the thinking consistance; CR ₁More than or equal to 0.1 o'clock, the possibility contrast weight of the factor of evaluation of possibility thinking consistency check module prompting expert judging load module input did not meet the thinking consistance, need re-enter the possibility contrast weight of factor of evaluation.

4. risk assessment according to claim 1 system, it is characterized in that: described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization modules, described dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization modules obtains dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization parameter by mathematical model two, and mathematical model two is:

S＝f ₁k ₁+f ₂k ₂+......+f _nk _n

$B=(b_1,b_2,......,b_p),\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{b}_i=1$

$T=\left[\begin{array}{c}T|u_1\\ T|u_2\\ ...\\ T|u_p\end{array}\right]={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{t}_{11}& t_{12}& ...& t_{1m}\\ t_{21}& t_{22}& ...& t_{2m}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ t_{p1}& t_{p2}& ...& t_{\mathrm{pm}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.n}$

$D{\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{d}_{11}& d_{12}& ...& d_{1p}\\ d_{21}& d_{22}& ...& d_{2p}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ d_{p1}& d_{p2}& ...& d_{\mathrm{pp}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.p}$

Wherein, S is a dangerous matter sources seriousness quantization parameter, and it is W=(w that the seriousness grade is formed seriousness grade territory ₁, w ₂..., w _n), k _i(i=1,2 ..., n) be each seriousness grade w _iQuantized value, F are the fuzzy synthesis seriousness evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources, and B is the proper vector of seriousness contrast judgment matrix D, and T is a seriousness degree of membership matrix, u _i(i=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor, t _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., be that dangerous matter sources is from risk assessment factor u n) _iTo w _jDegree of membership, i.e. t _IjBe u _iTo w _jSeriousness be worth weight, d _Ij(i=1,2 ..., p; J=1,2 ..., p) be risk assessment factor u _iTo u _jSeriousness contrast weight.

5. risk assessment according to claim 4 system, it is characterized in that: described possibility and seriousness quantize subsystem and also comprise seriousness thinking consistency check module, described seriousness thinking consistency check module is carried out the thinking consistency check by the seriousness contrast weight of the risk assessment factor that four pairs of expert judging load modules of mathematical model receive, and mathematical model four is:

${\mathrm{CR}}_1=\frac{{\mathrm{CI}}_1}{{\mathrm{RI}}_1}$

${\mathrm{CI}}_1=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max 1}-p}{p-1}$

Wherein, CR ₂Be seriousness Consistency Ratio at random, CI ₂Be seriousness coincident indicator, RI ₂Be seriousness mean random coincident indicator, λ _Max2Be the maximum characteristic root of proper vector B, p is the quantity of risk assessment factor; CR ₂Less than 0.1 o'clock, seriousness contrast weight met the thinking consistance; CR ₂More than or equal to 0.1 o'clock, the seriousness contrast weight of the factor of evaluation of seriousness thinking consistency check module prompting expert judging load module input did not meet the thinking consistance, need re-enter the seriousness contrast weight of factor of evaluation.

6. according to each described risk assessment system of claim 1 to 5, it is characterized in that: in the possibility of described risk display subsystem-seriousness coordinate system, be that the curve of some constants is divided each zone with value-at-risk.

7. risk assessment according to claim 6 system, it is characterized in that: described expert judging load module is divided at least two levels with the risk assessment factor.

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