A kind of signalized intersections bicycle is crossed street behavior automatic distinguishing method in violation of rules and regulations
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of signalized intersections bicycle and cross in violation of rules and regulations street behavior automatic distinguishing method, be specifically related to a kind of utilization binary logit model and carry out the signalized intersections bicycle and cross in violation of rules and regulations street behavior automatic distinguishing method, belong to traffic administration and traffic safety technology field.
Background technology
Bicycle mainly comprises bicycle and electric bicycle, is the important mode of transportation in incity, China big city, especially the preferred traffic instrument of domestic city resident short distance trip.The normal property sent out of bicycle accident and the seriousness of damage sequence make the bicycle accident become the characteristics of Chinese transportation accident, and become the difficult point of Chinese transportation and traffic hazard.2010,8745 of national bicycle accidents caused 1462 people dead, and 9483 people are injured, and direct property loss reaches 1,137 ten thousand yuans.Statistics shows, most of bicycle accidents are crossed in violation of rules and regulations the street and caused due to it, thus research how to confirm bicycle to cross the street behavior be to have far reaching.
At present, the research of crossing the street behavior for bicycle is less, and relevant research mainly concentrates on the pedestrian's street crossing behavior.Existing research is mainly the personal attribute for the pedestrian, thereby the information such as Social Characteristics and family's characteristic are carried out qualitative analysis and determined street behavior preference.The research that only has bicycle few in number to cross the street behavior also is based on information such as analyzing age, sex, bicycle kind and determines that it crosses the street behavior, does not relate to crossing characteristic and traffic environment that bicycle is crossed the street.Thereby existing method can not analysis-by-synthesis affect the factor that bicycle is crossed the street behavior, can not instruct engineering practice to cross the street behavior to reduce non-motor-driven violation.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: the object of the invention is to for the deficiencies in the prior art, a kind of accuracy of judgement is provided, reduces manually participation, can instructs the signalized intersections bicycle of engineering practice to cross in violation of rules and regulations street behavior automatic distinguishing method.
Technical scheme: a kind of signalized intersections bicycle of the present invention is crossed street behavior automatic distinguishing method in violation of rules and regulations, it is characterized in that, carries out as follows:
(1) set up two video cameras in signalized intersections crossing and environs thereof, the First camera pedestal is located at the concealed location at crossing place, is used for taking the bicycle characteristic and crosses the street behavior; Second camera pedestal is located at the eminence of signalized intersections, overlooks and takes road traffic flow and crossing characteristic;
Video by admission, correlation parameter is arranged, and the parameter of arrangement comprises whether driver's sex, driver's age, driver helmet, whether bicycle is manned, whether bicycle type, intersection shape, crossing inlet road has the median strip, whether crossing inlet road form of fracture, crossing inlet road has in current vehicle, bicycle signal lamp form, 5min motor vehicle number in bicycle number and 5min;
To the arrangement of related data by manually completing, namely by the people by watching video to remove to judge above-mentioned parameter, then keep a record.
(2) according to the discrete choice analysis method, to set up the signalized intersections bicycle and cross in violation of rules and regulations street behavior binary logit forecast model, and adopt the parameter progressive method that binary logit forecast model is demarcated, calibration result is:
Wherein, x
1Represent sex (1 man, 0 female), x
2Represent the age (1 youth, 2 middle ages, 3 old age); x
3Represent bicycle car type (1 battery-operated motor cycle, 2 electric bicycles, 3 bicycles); x
4Represent whether the crossing inlet road has median strip (1 has, 2 without); x
5Represent crossing inlet road form of fracture (1 single carriageway road, 2 two width roads, 3 triple carriageway roads); x
6Represent whether the crossing inlet road has current vehicle (1 has, 2 without); x
7Represent bicycle signal lamp form (1 numeric type; 2 flicker types).
(3) supplemental characteristic that in the supplemental characteristic that arranges in step (1), in extraction step (2), forecast model needs, and with the binary logit forecast model in data input step (2), obtain the signalized intersections bicycle and cross in violation of rules and regulations the street behavior, as P 0.5 the time, bicycle is crossed the street in violation of rules and regulations; When P<0.5, bicycle is not crossed the street in violation of rules and regulations.
In step (2), binary logit forecast model being demarcated adopts the Analysis module of SPSS19.0 system to carry out, the supplemental characteristic that might affect model that obtains in step (1) is analyzed, effective parameter is chosen include in model by " parameter go forward one by one method ", and invalid parameter is cast out.SPSS19.0 is the business mathematics analysis software that American I BM company releases, and it integrates data preparation, analytic function.SPSS19.0 is combined by a plurality of functional modules, and utilization of the present invention Analysis module wherein realizes the signalized intersections bicycle parameter calibration of mistake street behavior binary logit forecast model in violation of rules and regulations, the fitting result demonstration, and the models fitting goodness is remarkable.
After setting up the signalized intersections bicycle in step (2) and crossing in violation of rules and regulations street behavior binary logit forecast model, carry out the precision test of model by the measured data of check group.The signalized intersections bicycle of model prediction is crossed in street behavior and measured data the signalized intersections bicycle in violation of rules and regulations, and mistake street behavior deviation is less in violation of rules and regulations, proves applicability and the validity of model.Choose 1131, Nanjing bicycle and carry out the checking of model, the prediction accuracy that model is crossed the street in violation of rules and regulations to bicycle is 82.8%, the prediction accuracy of bicycle not being crossed in violation of rules and regulations the street is 78.7%, the aggregate prediction precision is 81.9%, the difference of predicted value and measured value is very little, thereby has proved the validity of forecast model and the ubiquity of application.
Beneficial effect: a kind of signalized intersections bicycle of the present invention is crossed street behavior automatic distinguishing method in violation of rules and regulations, gather the data of intersection by the method for setting up video camera in the intersection, after correlation parameter is arranged, input binary logit forecast model, signalized intersections place bicycle is crossed the street whether make in violation of rules and regulations quick judgement, reduce artificial participation, improve judgement speed, make accuracy of judgement just; Simultaneously, also can cross in violation of rules and regulations the factor of street behavior by appreciable impact signal bicycle in model, for the crossing transformation provides theoretical foundation, have actual engineering application and be worth.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is that signalized intersections bicycle of the present invention is crossed the process flow diagram of street behavior automatic distinguishing method in violation of rules and regulations;
Fig. 2 is the logical diagram that in the inventive method, collection signal crossing bicycle is crossed the street behavioral data;
Fig. 3 is the process flow diagram of the method for building up of binary logit forecast model in the inventive method.
Embodiment
The below is elaborated to technical solution of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to described embodiment.
Embodiment: a kind of signalized intersections bicycle of the present invention is crossed street behavior automatic distinguishing method in violation of rules and regulations, and its process flow diagram carries out as shown in Figure 1 as follows:
(1) set up two video cameras in signalized intersections crossing and environs thereof, the First camera pedestal is located at the concealed location at crossing place, is used for taking the bicycle characteristic and crosses the street behavior; Second camera pedestal is located at the eminence of signalized intersections, overlooks and takes road traffic flow and crossing characteristic.
Video by admission, correlation parameter is arranged, the parameter logical diagram that arranges comprises whether driver's sex, driver's age, driver helmet, whether bicycle is manned, whether bicycle type, intersection shape, crossing inlet road has the median strip, whether crossing inlet road form of fracture, crossing inlet road has in current vehicle, bicycle signal lamp form, 5min motor vehicle number in bicycle number and 5min as shown in Figure 2.
To the arrangement of related data by manually completing, namely by the people by watching video to remove to judge above-mentioned parameter, then keep a record.
(2) according to the discrete choice analysis method, set up the signalized intersections bicycle and cross in violation of rules and regulations street behavior binary logit forecast model, set up the process flow diagram of binary logit forecast model method as shown in Figure 3, and adopt the parameter progressive method that binary logit forecast model is demarcated, calibration result is:
Wherein, x
1Represent sex (1 man, 0 female), x
2Represent the age (1 youth, 2 middle ages, 3 old age); x
3Represent bicycle car type (1 battery-operated motor cycle, 2 electric bicycles, 3 bicycles); x
4Represent whether the crossing inlet road has median strip (1 has, 2 without); x
5Represent crossing inlet road form of fracture (1 single carriageway road, 2 two width roads, 3 triple carriageway roads); x
6Represent whether the crossing inlet road has current vehicle (1 has, 2 without); x
7Represent bicycle signal lamp form (1 numeric type; 2 flicker types).
Binary logit forecast model is demarcated adopts the Analysis module of SPSS19.0 system to carry out, the supplemental characteristic that might affect model that obtains in step (1) is analyzed, effective parameter is chosen include in model by " parameter go forward one by one method ", and invalid parameter is cast out.SPSS19.0 is the business mathematics analysis software that American I BM company releases, and it integrates data preparation, analytic function.SPSS19.0 is combined by a plurality of functional modules, and utilization of the present invention Analysis module wherein realizes the signalized intersections bicycle parameter calibration of mistake street behavior binary logit forecast model in violation of rules and regulations, the fitting result demonstration, and the models fitting goodness is remarkable.
After setting up the signalized intersections bicycle and crossing in violation of rules and regulations street behavior binary logit forecast model, carry out the precision test of model by the measured data of check group.The signalized intersections bicycle of model prediction is crossed in street behavior and measured data the signalized intersections bicycle in violation of rules and regulations, and mistake street behavior deviation is less in violation of rules and regulations, proves applicability and the validity of model.Choose 1131, Nanjing bicycle and carry out the checking of model, the prediction accuracy that model is crossed the street in violation of rules and regulations to bicycle is 82.8%, the prediction accuracy of bicycle not being crossed in violation of rules and regulations the street is 78.7%, the aggregate prediction precision is 81.9%, the difference of predicted value and measured value is very little, thereby has proved the validity of forecast model and the ubiquity of application.
(3) supplemental characteristic that in the supplemental characteristic that arranges in step (1), in extraction step (2), forecast model needs, and with the binary logit forecast model in data input step (2), obtain the signalized intersections bicycle and cross in violation of rules and regulations the street behavior, as P 0.5 the time, bicycle is crossed the street in violation of rules and regulations; When P<0.5, bicycle is not crossed the street in violation of rules and regulations.
Use method of the present invention, obtain 10 groups of bicycle data by the collection of bicycle data video, and data are inputed to carry out bicycle in binary logit forecast model and cross the street behavior and predict, and will predict the outcome and cross the street behavior with reality and compare, result is as shown in table 1:
Table 1:
The signalized intersections bicycle is crossed the definite most important to improving the crossing traffic safety of street behavior, cross in violation of rules and regulations street behavior binary logit forecast model based on the signalized intersections bicycle, with input information models such as bicycle characteristic and crossing geometrical properties, can cross in violation of rules and regulations the street behavior to the signalized intersections bicycle and make quick judgement.In addition, also can cross in violation of rules and regulations the factor of street behavior by appreciable impact signal bicycle in model, carry out the crossing transformation, have actual engineering application and be worth.As shown in the Examples, 10 groups of bicycles are crossed predicting the outcome of street behavior and to cross the street behavior consistent for reality, the enforcement validity of the inventive method has been described.
As mentioned above, although represented and explained the present invention with reference to specific preferred embodiment, it shall not be construed as the restriction to the present invention self.Under the spirit and scope of the present invention prerequisite that does not break away from the claims definition, can make in the form and details various variations to it.