CN102926810B - Forecasting method of coal and gas outburst - Google Patents
Forecasting method of coal and gas outburst Download PDFInfo
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- CN102926810B CN102926810B CN201210464368.4A CN201210464368A CN102926810B CN 102926810 B CN102926810 B CN 102926810B CN 201210464368 A CN201210464368 A CN 201210464368A CN 102926810 B CN102926810 B CN 102926810B
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Abstract
The invention provides a forecasting method of coal and gas outburst, which is based on a coal mine safety monitoring system. The method comprises the following steps of: mainly utilizing the coal mine safety monitoring system to extract an average value of gas density, a maximum value of gas density, a maximum confidence value of 95% of gas density, and a difference value of gas density for the last three times, wherein the values are transmitted by a sensor located at a position 40-60m away from an early-warning target heading face and processed by the coal mine safety monitoring system; and obtaining an index value of drilling cutting quantity and an index value of drilling cutting gas desorption by performing gas outburst prevention detection for the last times extracted by the mine safety monitoring system, calculating an index value of drilling cutting quantity and an index value of drilling cutting gas desorption in a current state by a specific algorithm, and comparing the index values with corresponding forecasting judgment indexes to realize continuous forecasting of the coal and gas outburst. Advantages of a contact-type forecasting method and advantages of a non-contact-type continuous forecasting method are integrated into the method provided by the invention, thus reliability and credibility of the forecasting can be improved, and an adaptive capacity is stronger.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to safety of coal mines guard technology field, be specifically related to the continuous prediction method of a kind of coal and Gas Outburst.
Background technology
Mine safety accidents is often sent out, and brings the massive losses of life and property.Coal and gas burst accident are one of multiple accidents in colliery.Current coal and gas outburst mechanism comprehensive supposition are thought, coal and Gas Outburst are the results of the physico-mechanical properties three comprehensive function of geostatic stress, gas and coal, be the high speed pay-out that is gathered in a large amount of potential in country rock and coal body, and think that high pressure gas plays a decisive role in outstanding evolution.At present domesticly adopt static contact interruption Forecasting Methodology to the prediction of coal and gas burst accident, as drilling gas gush out initial velocity method, R desired value method, method of drilling index etc." control coal and the Gas Outburst detailed rules and regulations " that relevant department of China promulgates point out that the method that adopts method of drilling index to predict driving face coal and gas outburst risk is effectively and reliably, each large coal mine evacuation working face is widely used at home at present.Method of drilling index is by plaing the boring of 2 or 3 diameter 42mm, hole depth 8～10m at Driving Face in Coal Tunnel, the every dozen of 1m that hole measure coal powder quantity of bore once, measure a Desorption Index for Drill Cuttings every 2m, according to the maximum coal powder quantity of bore S of long every meter along hole of each boring
maxwith Desorption Index for Drill Cuttings K
1or △ h
2the outburst hazard of prediction work face, the outburst danger threshold of indices, should determine according to on-site measurement data, when without field data, can determine with reference to the data of table 1 coal and the Gas Outburst of work plane.
The threshold of method of drilling index prediction Driving Face in Coal Tunnel outburst hazard for table 1
The advantage that adopts method of drilling index prediction development end coal and Gas Outburst is that prediction is relatively accurate, reliability and degree of recognition are relatively high, the weak point of this kind of method is: each measurement all can spend a large amount of manpower and materials, easily affect normally carrying out of coal production, what is more important can not be accomplished real-time continuous prediction.
In recent years, the Real-Time Monitoring of coal and gas burst accident and continuous prediction are subject to day by day the attention of each side.As the publication number Chinese patent literature that is CN101532397A, it discloses the real-time diagnosis method of a kind of coal and Gas Outburst, the method is by combining with coal mine safety monitoring system, combine coal and the Gas Outburst three factors variation characteristic in distinguished and admirable middle gas density, realize real-time diagnosis and prediction to coal and Gas Outburst, be characterized in accomplishing contactless continuous prediction, but the method some desired values to contact measurement in forecasting process do not relate to, predicting the outcome, it is more relatively low to be compared to Forecasting Methodology reliability and the degree of recognition of contact.
Thereby research one can realize real-time estimate, can embody and consider that again the high reliability of common contact Forecasting Methodology and the coal of degree of recognition advantage and the Forecasting Methodology of Gas Outburst seem very necessary and be significant.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is: for deficiency of the prior art, carry out protrusion-dispelling desired value under dynamic prediction driving face current state and realize the Forecasting Methodology to coal under current state and Gas Outburst thereby provide a kind of distinguished and admirable middle variation ofgas density data of development end of utilizing Real-time Collection and historical protrusion-dispelling to detect index parameter.
Technical scheme of the present invention is: the Forecasting Methodology of coal of the present invention and Gas Outburst, is based upon on coal mine safety monitoring system basis; Described coal mine safety monitoring system stores by reality and detects the coal powder quantity of bore desired value and the drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value that obtain; And coal mine safety monitoring system receives in real time and stores the gas data of mine development ends and carry out respective handling, it is characterized in that: mainly comprise the following steps:
1. coal mine safety monitoring system extracts by being arranged on apart from early warning target development end 40～60m position firedamp sensor following real-time gas data transmission and after coal mine safety monitoring system carries out respective handling:
Gas density average C: the average of gas density in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value C
1, C
2, C
3, currency C
0;
Gas density maximum value M: the maximum value of gas density in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value M
1, M
2, M
3, currency M
0;
Gas density 95% is put letter maximum value F: the maximum value of gas density 95% confidential interval in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value F
1, F
2, F
3, currency F
0;
Gas density difference D: in certain hour or the gas density difference of patrolling and examining for twice; Wherein, nearest three sub-value D
1, D
2, D
3, currency D
0;
2. the mash gas outburst prevention that coal mine safety monitoring system extracts nearest three times of early warning target development end detects desired value:
Wherein, coal powder quantity of bore desired value S for the first time
max1, the second sub-value S
max2, be worth S for the third time
max3; Current coal powder quantity of bore desired value S
max;
Drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value K for the first time
11, the second sub-value K
12, be worth K for the third time
13; Current drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value K
1;
3. will by step 1. with step 2. the data obtained calculate as follows:
Solve parameter A by equation group (1)
1, A
2, A
3value, bring these three parameter values in current forecast interval numerical value and calculate as follows:
A
1C
0+A
2(M
0+F
0)+A
3D
0＝K
1 (2)
Solve K under current state by formula (2)
1value;
4. will by step 1. with step 2. the data obtained calculate as follows:
Solve B parameter by equation group (3)
1, B
2, B
3value, bring these three parameter values in current forecast interval numerical value and calculate as follows:
B
1C
0+B
2(M
0+F
0)+B
3D
0＝S
max (4)
Solve S under current state by formula (4)
maxvalue;
5. to the K under the current state 3. being obtained by step
1s under value and the current state that 4. obtained by step
maxcarry out the following judgement of analyzing:
Work as S
max< 4.80kg/m (4.32L/m) and K
1< 0.40ml/ (g.min
1/2) time, predict the outcome as safe condition;
As 4.80kg/m (4.32L/m)≤S
max< 6.00kg/m (5.40L/m) or 0.40ml/ (g.min
1/2)≤K
1< 0.50ml/ (g.min
1/2) time, predict the outcome as threatened status;
As 6.00kg/m (5.40L/m)≤S
maxor 0.50ml/ (g.min
1/2)≤K
1time, predict the outcome as precarious position.
The present invention has positive effect: (1) is by combining with gas outbursts Prediction index contact coal with the distinguished and admirable middle variation ofgas density data of development end of Real-Time Monitoring, realize coal and the contactless continuous prediction of Gas Outburst, improve forecasting reliability and confidence level, opened up the domestic and international beginning in this field.(2) basic data that Forecasting Methodology of the present invention is extracted in gas density is dimensionless number certificate, revise used historical detect prominent index be also the boundary value that provides according to " control coal and Gas Outburst detailed rules and regulations " as basis, thereby there is stronger adaptive ability.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the correlation schematic block diagram of coal of the present invention and the each factor of gas outbursts Prediction;
Fig. 2 is the gas probe positions schematic diagram that the present invention gathers driving face coal and gas outbursts Prediction parameter;
Fig. 3 predicts Smax value and actual measurement Smax value comparison diagram in application examples of the present invention;
Fig. 4 predicts K in application examples of the present invention
1value and actual measurement K
1value comparison diagram.
Detailed description of the invention
(embodiment 1)
The coal of the present embodiment and the Forecasting Methodology of Gas Outburst, be based upon on coal mine safety monitoring system basis, basic data mainly detects desired value two parts from coal mine safety monitoring system and historical protrusion-dispelling, and historical protrusion-dispelling detects desired value and detected and obtained by reality in daily headwork.
See Fig. 1, the impact analysis of the gas density during coal and Gas Outburst three elements stress state, physical mechanics state and coal seam gas-bearing capacity are distinguished and admirable to driving face under coal mine is as follows:
1. stress state changes the impact on distinguished and admirable middle gas density:
The gas source of driving face is mainly made up of following four parts: a. has exposed the Gas of tunnel surrounding rib; B. newly expose the Gas of tunnel rib; C. the Gas of coal breakage; D. newly expose the Gas of development end.Learn according to analysis, in a forecast interval, As time goes on the gas emission that has exposed tunnel surrounding rib is attenuation trend, and the new tunnel rib gas emission exposing can be cancelled out each other substantially with the gas attenuation that exposes tunnel, belongs to the technology being employed.When in the normal process advancing of work plane, the gas amount of coal breakage does not have larger variation, and the wall gas emission that therefore only has new exposure is a parameter, and directly has influence on development end gas emission in each forecast interval.Driving face newly exposes wall Gas and stress state variation has direct relation, thereby in the time that large variation does not occur driving face air quantity, the variation of average gas density just can characterize the impact of stress state on Gas Outburst indirectly.For the selection of forecast interval, can choose 8 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours or 48 hours, in the middle of application process at the scene, should select suitable forecast interval according to development end operation orderliness, but maximum can not exceed 48 hours the forecast interval period theoretically, and minimum can not be less than 8 hours.
2. coal seam gas-bearing capacity changes the impact on distinguished and admirable middle gas density:
Seam gas content changes the variation of high gas density of moment in distinguished and admirable the most directly show as coal breakage in gas density sequence time, and in coal seam, gas bearing capacity is higher, and the initial desorption of mash gas amount recording is larger, and when coal breakage, gas concentration is just larger moment.So the variation of choosing two parameters of maximum value of the interior maximum gas concentration of forecast interval and gas density sequential value 95% confidential interval carrys out the variation of coal seam gas-bearing capacity in characterized forecast interval.After the maximum value of aforesaid 95% confidential interval refers to the concentration data of development end prediction gas probe is sorted, the distribution pattern meeting according to concentration data group, the scope of calculating 95% confidential interval, capping value is as the maximum value of 95% confidential interval.
3. the impact of physical mechanics state variation on distinguished and admirable middle gas density
At present, coal and gas outburst mechanism comprehensive supposition are thought, coal and Gas Outburst are the results of the physico-mechanical properties three comprehensive function of geostatic stress, gas and coal, it is the high speed pay-out that is gathered in a large amount of potential in country rock and coal body, and think that high pressure gas plays a decisive role in outstanding evolution, geostatic stress is to excite outstanding factor, and the physico-mechanical properties of coal is to hinder outstanding factor.In gas density sequence, find well the relevant information that stress state changes and coal seam gas-bearing capacity changes above, for hindering in the physical mechanics state variation Forecasting Methodology of the present invention of outstanding coal, adopt the maximum value of adjacent polling period concentration difference in forecast interval to characterize.
Be explained as follows about the method for in coal mine safety monitoring system, the distinguished and admirable middle gas density of development end uninterruptedly being monitored:
See Fig. 2, conventionally in coal mine safety monitoring system, all can gas probe be set in development end, also be gas concentration sensor, but, due to the particularity of development end ventilation, the distinguished and admirable disorder in heading end place, if certainly will give to predict the outcome taking development end probe data as basic data and bring larger error, so through lab analysis and on-the-spot test checking, setting up a firedamp sensor apart from development end 40～60m position, and follow the propelling of headwork and advance, this position had both fully taken into account distinguished and admirable stability and the abundant mixed problem of gas in distinguished and admirable, the least possible Gas that has comprised digging laneway wall again.Simultaneously because the propelling sensor along with driving is also advancing, just ensure to a certain extent that gas density that this sensor detects has mainly comprised the Gas of gushing out of heading end gas and regular length wall, has controlled the value error of gas density to a certain extent.The real time data that Forecasting Methodology of the present invention is got is all from this firedamp sensor.
Based on above related description, the Forecasting Methodology of coal of the present invention and Gas Outburst, is based upon on coal mine safety monitoring system basis; Described coal mine safety monitoring system stores by reality and detects the coal powder quantity of bore desired value and the drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value that obtain; And coal mine safety monitoring system receives in real time and stores the gas data of mine development ends and carry out respective handling, and Forecasting Methodology mainly comprises the following steps:
1. coal mine safety monitoring system extracts by being arranged on apart from early warning target development end 40～60m position firedamp sensor following real-time gas data transmission and after coal mine safety monitoring system carries out respective handling:
Gas density average C: the average of gas density in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value C
1, C
2, C
3, currency C
0;
Gas density maximum value M: the maximum value of gas density in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value M
1, M
2, M
3, currency M
0;
Gas density 95% is put letter maximum value F: the maximum value of gas density 95% confidential interval in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value F
1, F
2, F
3, currency F
0;
Gas density difference D: in certain hour or the gas density difference of patrolling and examining for twice; Wherein, nearest three sub-value D
1, D
2, D
3, currency D
0;
2. the mash gas outburst prevention that coal mine safety monitoring system extracts nearest three times of early warning target development end detects desired value:
Wherein, coal powder quantity of bore desired value S for the first time
max1, the second sub-value S
max2, be worth S for the third time
max3; Current coal powder quantity of bore desired value S
max;
Drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value K for the first time
11, the second sub-value K
12, be worth K for the third time
13; Current drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value K
1;
3. will by step 1. with step 2. the data obtained calculate as follows:
Solve parameter A by equation group (1)
1, A
2, A
3value, bring these three parameter values in current forecast interval numerical value and calculate as follows:
A
1C
0+A
2(M
0+F
0)+A
3D
0＝K
1 (2)
Solve K under current state by formula (2)
1value;
4. will by step 1. with step 2. the data obtained calculate as follows:
Solve B parameter by equation group (3)
1, B
2, B
3value, bring these three parameter values in current forecast interval numerical value and calculate as follows:
B
1C
0+B
2(M
0+F
0)+B
3D
0＝S
max (4)
Solve S under current state by formula (4)
maxvalue;
5. to the K under the current state 3. being obtained by step
1s under value and the current state that 4. obtained by step
maxcarry out the following judgement of analyzing:
Work as S
max< 4.80kg/m (4.32L/m) and K
1< 0.40ml/ (g.min
1/2) time, predict the outcome as safe condition;
As 4.80kg/m (4.32L/m)≤S
max< 6.00kg/m (5.40L/m) or 0.40ml/ (g.min
1/2)≤K
1< 0.50ml/ (g.min
1/2) time, predict the outcome as threatened status;
As 6.00kg/m (5.40L/m)≤S
maxor 0.50ml/ (g.min
1/2)≤K
1time, predict the outcome as precarious position.
(application examples)
See Fig. 3 and Fig. 4, taking ore deposit, Shanxi N2105 adhesive tape crossheading development end as example, the gas outburst index value of having chosen this ore deposit 21 to 30 July in 2012 the actual measurement gas outburst index value of totally ten days and Forecasting Methodology of the present invention obtaining contrasts.Because this ore deposit development end operation habit is to do the detection that a time protrusion-dispelling detects index every day, thus choose 24 hours as forecast interval, by the S respectively actual detection of 10 days of this ore deposit being obtained
maxvalue and K
1the S that value and every day obtain by Forecasting Methodology of the present invention
maxvalue and K
1compare, can be clear that coal of the present invention and gas outbursts Prediction method and traditional contact Gas Outburst detection method have good uniformity, forecasting accuracy is high.
In sum, Forecasting Methodology for driving face coal and Gas Outburst of the present invention, the variation characteristic that has considered the distinguished and admirable middle gas density that three kinds of factors of physico-mechanical properties of ground pressure, coal seam gas-bearing capacity and the coal larger on the impact of driving face coal and Gas Outburst bring, detects index using historical protrusion-dispelling and as revising, the danger of driving face coal and Gas Outburst is predicted.Forecasting Methodology of the present invention had both had the continuous forecasting characters of non contact prediction method, combined again the high-reliability of this contact Forecasting Methodology of drilling cuttings index prediction method and the feature of degree of recognition simultaneously; And Forecasting Methodology of the present invention is dimensionless number certificate in the gas density relevant rudimentary data of extracting, revise used historical detect prominent index be also the boundary value that provides according to " control coal and Gas Outburst detailed rules and regulations " as basis, thereby there is stronger adaptive ability.Thereby Forecasting Methodology of the present invention is all higher coal and Gas Outburst real-time predicting methods of a kind of prediction accuracy and degree of recognition.
Above embodiment and application examples are the explanations to the specific embodiment of the present invention; but not limitation of the present invention; person skilled in the relevant technique without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention; can also make various conversion and variation and obtain the corresponding technical scheme being equal to, therefore all technical schemes that are equal to all should be included into scope of patent protection of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. a Forecasting Methodology for coal and Gas Outburst, is based upon on coal mine safety monitoring system basis; Described coal mine safety monitoring system stores by reality and detects the coal powder quantity of bore desired value and the drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value that obtain; And coal mine safety monitoring system receives in real time and stores the gas data of mine development ends and carry out respective handling, it is characterized in that: mainly comprise the following steps:
1. coal mine safety monitoring system extracts by firedamp sensor following real-time gas data transmission and after coal mine safety monitoring system carries out respective handling that are arranged on apart from early warning target development end 40～60m position:
Gas density average C: the average of gas density in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value C
1, C
2, C
3, currency C
0;
Gas density maximum value M: the maximum value of gas density in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value M
1, M
2, M
3, currency M
0;
Gas density 95% is put letter maximum value F: the maximum value of gas density 95% confidential interval in forecast interval or work cycle; Wherein, nearest three sub-value F
1, F
2, F
3, currency F
0;
Gas density difference D: in certain hour or the gas density difference of patrolling and examining for twice; Wherein, nearest three sub-value D
1, D
2, D
3, currency D
0;
2. the mash gas outburst prevention that coal mine safety monitoring system extracts nearest three times of early warning target development end detects desired value:
Wherein, coal powder quantity of bore desired value S for the first time
max1, the second sub-value S
max2, be worth S for the third time
max3; Current coal powder quantity of bore desired value S
max;
Drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value K for the first time
11, the second sub-value K
12, be worth K for the third time
13; Current drilling cuttings desorption of mash gas desired value K
1;
3. will by step 1. with step 2. the data obtained calculate as follows:
Solve parameter A by equation group (1)
1, A
2, A
3value, bring these three parameter values in current forecast interval numerical value and calculate as follows:
A
1C
0+A
2(M
0+F
0)+A
3D
0＝K
1 (2)
Solve K under current state by formula (2)
1value;
4. will by step 1. with step 2. the data obtained calculate as follows:
Solve B parameter by equation group (3)
1, B
2, B
3value, bring these three parameter values in current forecast interval numerical value and calculate as follows:
B
1C
0+B
2(M
0+F
0)+B
3D
0＝S
max (4)
Solve S under current state by formula (4)
maxvalue;
5. to the K under the current state 3. being obtained by step
1s under value and the current state that 4. obtained by step
maxcarry out the following judgement of analyzing:
Work as S
max< 4.80kg/m (4.32L/m) and K
1< 0.40ml/ (g.min
1/2) time, predict the outcome as safe condition;
As 4.80kg/m (4.32L/m)≤S
max< 6.00kg/m (5.40L/m) or 0.40ml/ (g.min
1/2)≤K
1< 0.50ml/ (g.min
1/2) time, predict the outcome as threatened status;
As 6.00kg/m (5.40L/m)≤S
maxor 0.50ml/ (g.min
1/2)≤K
1time, predict the outcome as precarious position.
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| RU2453707C1 (en) * | 2011-01-17 | 2012-06-20 | Владимир Александрович Парамошко | Device to prevent explosion of combustible gases |
| CN102155264A (en) * | 2011-03-29 | 2011-08-17 | 天地（常州）自动化股份有限公司 | Method for detecting abnormal gas quantity monitoring information in coal mine monitoring system |
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