CN102800032A - Cost benefit analysis method of renewable energy source distributed generation operation mode - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to a cost benefit analysis method of a renewable energy source distributed generation operation mode. The method comprises the following steps: determining all operation modes of the renewable energy source distributed generation; performing match analysis on the distributed contribution and a load curve, and determining different types of electric quantity; determining property right demarcation points, boundary conditions and calculation parameters of the distributed generation under different operation modes; determining the expense composition and income composition of the distributed generation in the whole life cycle under different operation modes; determining the total expense present value, annual average expense present value, total income present value and annual average income present value of the distributed generation in the whole life cycle under different operation modes; determining the benefit/cost value PI of the distributed generation in the whole life cycle under different operation modes; and selecting the scheme with the greatest benefit/cost value, and determining the optimal operation mode of the distributed generation. The method provided by the invention lays a firm theoretical foundation for making supporting policies for the renewable energy source distributed generation and distribution network.

Description

A kind of cost effectiveness analysis method of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of income/method of cost accounting, be specifically related to a kind of cost effectiveness analysis method of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode.

Background technology

Climate change and energy problem have proposed an urgent demand of low carbon development to countries in the world.In order to carry out and implement " regenerative resource method "; Implement State Council's energy-saving and emission-reduction strategic plan; Promote regenerative resource industrial strategy status; Relevant department has put into effect a series of planning relevant with distributed power generation, enforcement policy and fund subsidy policy in succession, causes renewable energy power generation market to be expanded rapidly.But distributed power generation should be managed by whom, adopt which kind of operation mode more reasonable? This is not only the economy problems that needs to be resolved hurrily, and political especially problem has also determined distributed power generation future prospects for development and direction simultaneously.

The time value and income/assessment of cost method in the face of life-cycle period expense, expense is described further down.

1, life-cycle period expense

Life-cycle period expense (Life Cycle Costs, the be called for short LCC) equipment that is meant is at expected life in the cycle, all expense sums of paying for its demonstration, development, production, use and guarantee and retired disposal.It is turned to by all stock numbers that consumed equipment throughout one's life and adds up after the monetary value and get; Spelt out to having equipment or project and how much will have been spent in its all one's life; Thereby be an extremely important economy parameter value, and become main Connotation and the key element in the modern quality idea.

The basic model of life-cycle period expense in distribution engineering is:

LCC＝CI+CO+CF+CD；

Wherein, CI refers to first input cost; CO refers to operating cost; CF refers to breakdown loss cost (punishment cost); CD refers to the retired cost of disposal of equipment.

What expense was decomposed specifies as follows:

A, initialization cost CI: the purchase commodity, Installation and Debugging expense and the other fees that mainly comprise equipment.Purchase commodity comprises equipment purchase expense, on-the-spot service fee, specific purpose tool and first standby redundancy expense, supplier's traffic expense and the relevant expenses of taxation, premium of insurance etc.; The Installation and Debugging expense comprises equipment construction mounting cost, proprietor's traffic expense, preceding debugging charge puts into operation.

B, operating cost CO: mainly comprise can expend in the equipment running process, dailyly patrol and examine expense, expenses of environmental protection, and the repair and maintenance cost.

The equipment energy consumption expense comprises the energy consumption of apparatus body wear and tear expense and utility appliance; The daily expense of patrolling and examining mainly comprises tour equipment and Master Cost and labour cost; Expenses of environmental protection refers in servicely need the expense of ancillary cost or the environmental fines of payment for satisfying environmental requirement.

The repair and maintenance cost mainly comprises preventive trial, daily maintenance expense, light maintenance expense, planned and needed all correlative chargess of unscheduled overhaul.

C, failure cost CF:

Breakdown loss mainly is because the economic loss that grid power undersupply or interruption cause user's short of electricity to bring is that the direct economy of mains supply reliability level height embodies.Fault outage loss cost comprises direct loss and indirect loss.Direct loss are meant the few sale of electricity of electric company and the electricity charge net income that can't obtain; Indirect loss is meant society and the user's loss that has a power failure and cause.The power failure cost is relevant with multiple factor, comprising time, power failure prior notice time, power failure amount, interruption duration, power failure frequency and the user type etc. that have a power failure and take place.In theory, the power failure cost is the function of above-mentioned factor, but in reality, the power failure cost function is difficult to accurately structure, so very difficult to the calculating of power failure cost.At present, several kinds of simple Estimating Method below some country adopts the power failure cost:

I, press GDP and calculate.This method is that the gross national product (GNP) that reduces by whenever lacking 1 degree electricity calculates average power failure cost, and it has reflected the average influence of power failure to macroeconomic.

Ii, calculate by the electricity price multiple.Based on investigation and the analysis of all types of user being carried out loss of outage, estimate the power failure cost with the multiple of average electricity price.Like Britain industry, commercial, resident are loaded the power failure cost respectively by 60,70,70 times of calculating of average electricity price, by average electricity price 50 times of the power failure cost of synthetic load are calculated.

Some countries such as iii, the U.S. think that industrial user's loss of outage is relevant with power failure power, power failure amount size, interruption duration and frequency of power cut, often adopts computes power failure cost:

$C=\underset{i=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{K}_w\·P_i+K_E\·E_i$

In the formula, K _w, K _EThe unit's of being respectively power failure power loss coefficient, unit power failure amount loss coefficient; P _i, E _iBe respectively the i time power failure power and power failure amount; K is annual frequency of power cut (frequency promptly has a power failure).K _w, K _EWith industrial user's size relation is arranged, can estimate by inquiry to obtain.

D, retired cost of disposal CD: comprise that retired disposal expense and equipment reclaim the residual value expense.Retired disposal expense comprises the expenses of environmental protection of disposing artificial cost of equipment, transportation and disposing when; Equipment reclaims residual value and counts with negative value.

2, the time value of expense:

Under the condition of considering the time value of money, expense commonly used is calculated has following 2 kinds of methods usually, i.e. total expenses present worth and average annual expense present worth.

1) total expenses present worth C _p:

The total expenses present worth is meant the project expense of each year in the given period, converts the present worth sum of first stage of construction (being first beginning of the year of project given period) according to the discount rate of an appointment.Total expenses present worth C _pCalculation expression be:

$C_p=\underset{t=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\mathrm{Ct}(P_C/F_C,i_c,t)=\underset{t=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\mathrm{Ct}{(1+i_c)}^{-t};$

In the formula, C _pTotal expenses present worth in the-technical scheme life cycle; F _C-final value refers to that the initial stage drops into or the fund of output converts the final value of calculating the end of term, the i.e. value of end of term amount into; T-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime (unit: year); P _C-present worth, the investment of expression first stage of construction or convert the amount of money of first stage of construction; Each annual expense expenditure in Ct-lifetime (comprising construction period and runtime); i _c-discount rate.

2) average annual expense present worth Ca:

Average annual expense present worth is that the total expenses in each technical scheme life cycle is converted into the single-candidate annual cost.The calculation expression of average annual expense present worth (C) is:

$C_a=\underset{t=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\mathrm{Ct}(P_C/F_C,i_c,t)(A/P_C,i_c,t)=\underset{t=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\mathrm{Ct}{(1+i_c)}^{-t}\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1};$

In the formula, C _aAverage annual expense present worth in the-technical scheme life cycle; F _C-final value,, refer to that the initial stage drops into or the fund of output converts the final value of calculating the end of term, the i.e. value of end of term amount into; T-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime (unit: year); P _C-present worth, the investment of expression first stage of construction or convert the amount of money of first stage of construction; Each annual expense expenditure in Ct-lifetime (comprising construction period and runtime); i _c-discount rate.

3, income/assessment of cost method:

Income/assessment of cost method (calling the B/C method in the following text) with the advantage that the ratio of income and cost is identified project, for multiattribute planning, is assessment and a selection course of assessing selectable items through an effective ratio.The value of the income/cost of project is high more, means that income is also many more, and can be through examining.Income is less than the project of investment then can not be through examining.When the special overhauling project of needs assessment or dsm (DSM) project scheduling, the planning personnel can adopt this method usually.Its basic calculating process is following.

I, list the various alternativess of project, comprise the scheme of maintaining the statusquo.

II, to every kind of scheme, provide total revenue and total expenses present worth (comprising cost of investment, operation and maintenance cost, tax revenue or development cost, failure cost etc.);

The value of the income/cost of III, every kind of scheme of calculating;

IV, select the maximum scheme of total revenue in greater than 1 project in the value of income/cost.

In the document of publishing at present, still rarely seen regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode is carried out cost/performance analysis, have only the minority scholar that the economy and the benefit of little electrical network or distributed power source itself are studied.From existing research, the concern of distributed power generation is mainly concentrated on economic benefit that trade trend, subsidy policy, investment feasibility, distributed power generation be incorporated into the power networks and overall evaluation system research etc. both at home and abroad.Along with the reduction of regenerative resource distributed power generation equipment cost and the lifting of industrial strategy status thereof; Having put into effect a series of distributed power generations in succession like Chinese Government implements and the subsidy policy; Must cause distributed power generation market to be expanded rapidly, have the operation mode problem that more and more countries is paid attention to distributed power generation when the time comes.

Summary of the invention

Deficiency to prior art; The present invention provides a kind of cost effectiveness analysis method of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode; This method is from the actual operation mode of regenerative resource distributed power generation; It is theoretical fully to use income/assessment of cost method, life-cycle period expense theory and present worth; Take all factors into consideration power supply cost, the government subsidy policy of power distribution network, factors such as electrovalence policy and property right separation have been set up the overall life cycle cost and the Benefit Model of distributed power generation under the different operation modes; Be intended to solve the income/pricing problem of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode, for the regenerative resource distributed power generation is established solid theory with the formulation of the relevant supporting policy of power distribution network.

The objective of the invention is to adopt following technical proposals to realize:

A kind of cost effectiveness analysis method of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode, its improvements are that said method comprises the steps:

(1) confirms the operation mode that the regenerative resource distributed power generation is all;

(2) exert oneself and load curve carries out The matching analysis to distributed, confirm dissimilar electric weight;

(3) confirm property right separation, boundary condition and the calculating parameter of distributed power generation under different operation modes;

(4) confirm the expenditure pattern of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes and income formation;

(5) confirm total expenses present worth, average annual expense present worth and gross income present worth, the average annual time adjusted revenue of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes;

(6) confirm the value P of the income/cost of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes _I

(7) select the maximum scheme of value of income/cost, confirm the optimum operation mode of distributed power generation.

Wherein, in the said step (1), all operation modes of said regenerative resource distributed power generation comprise that a confession separates, independently the distributed power generation investor sends out and supplies one and electric company to send out three kinds of operation modes of confession one.

Wherein, in the said step (2), said dissimilar electric weight comprise generated energy, distributed power generation electricity volume, the user power utilization amount of distributed power source and purchase electric weight.

Wherein, in the said step (3), supply under the separation mode at said, electric company and distributed power generation investor's property right separation is the access point of distributed power source; Send out said independently distributed power generation investor and to supply that the property right separation has multiple situation under the bulk-mode: 1. be the supply terminals of block supply; 2. 3. substation transformer low-pressure side of the 10kV outlet side of high voltage substation; 4. 0.4kV consumer unit inlet wire side; Send out in said electric company and to supply not have property right separation problem under the bulk-mode;

Comprise government subsidy policy, investment constraint and some assumed conditions in said different operation mode downstream condition; Calculating parameter comprises power supply reliability, line loss per unit, electricity price, controller switching equipment comprehensive cost, O&M rate, distributed power generation unit's installation cost, lending ratio, cycle equipment life and discount rate.

Wherein, in the said step (4), supply to separate under the operation mode at said, distributed power generation investor's cost structure mainly comprises initial outlay expense, operation and maintenance cost and the loan cost of distributed power generation; Supply under the one operation mode at said, electric company or distributed power generation investor's cost structure mainly comprise distributed power generation and regional distribution network initial investment expense and operation and maintenance cost, wear and tear expense, loss of outage expense, purchase electric cost and loan cost;

Supply separately under the operation mode at said, distributed power generation investor's income formation comprises that mainly distributed power generation sells electricity income and government subsidy; Supply under the one operation mode at said, electric company or distributed power generation investor's income formation comprises that mainly sale of electricity income, distributed power generation sell electricity income and government subsidy.

Wherein, the initial investment expense of said distributed power generation is represented with following 1. formula:

I _g＝W×C _w ①；

In the formula, I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; The installed capacity of W-distributed power generation; C _wThe unit installed capacity expense of-distributed power generation.

Wherein, power distribution network initial investment expense is represented with following 2. formula in the said power supply area:

$I_e=\underset{i=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{Q}_i\×I_i$ ②；

In the formula, I _ePower distribution network initial investment expense in the-power supply area; Q _iThe construction scale expense of-distribution line, switch, transformer and gauging table meter controller switching equipment; I _iThe cost of-unit equipment.

Wherein, said year operation and maintenance cost comprises the operation and maintenance cost of distributed power generation, the operation and maintenance cost and year wear and tear expenses usefulness of the interior power distribution network of power supply area.

Wherein, the year operation and maintenance cost of said distributed power generation is represented with following 3. formula:

M _g=I _g×R _g ③；

In the formula, M _gThe operation and maintenance cost of-distributed power generation; I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; R _gThe operation and maintenance cost of-distributed power generation.

Wherein, the year operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network is represented with following 4. formula in the said power supply area:

M _e=I _e×R _e ④；

In the formula, M _eThe operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network in the-power supply area; I _eThe initial investment expense of power distribution network in the-power supply area; R _eThe operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network in the-power supply area.

Wherein, said year wear and tear expenses comprise distributed power generation generate power for their own use kwh loss expense, distributed power generation electricity volume wear and tear expense and purchase by telephone electric part kwh loss expense from the city;

The said distributed power generation kwh loss expense of generating power for their own use is represented with following 5. formula:

L _l＝L _l1+L _l2+L _l3 ⑤；

Wherein:

L _l1＝365×(E _K×R _l1×P _K)×l _load ⑥；

In the formula, L _L1-distributed power generation kwh loss the expense of generating power for their own use; E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; R _L1The line loss per unit of-the part of generating power for their own use electric weight, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity;

L _l2＝365×(E _t×R _l2×P _t)×l _g ⑦；

In the formula, L _L2-distributed power generation electricity volume wear and tear expense; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume; l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself; R _L2-distributed power generation electricity volume line loss per unit, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _t-distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network;

L _l3＝365×(E _b×R _l3×P _b)×l _load ⑧；

In the formula, L _L3-city purchases by telephone electric part kwh loss expense; E _b-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; R _L3-purchase the power consumption line loss per unit, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _b-purchase by telephone electricity price from the city.

Wherein, said year direct loss of outage expense represented with following 9. formula:

C _outage＝365×(E _K+E _d)×(1-R ₃)×P _K×l _load ⑨；

In the formula, C _Outage-year direct loss of outage expense; E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; R ₃-service area intra domain user power supply reliability; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity.

Wherein, purchasing electric cost in said year representes with following 10. formula:

C _b=365×E _d×P _b×l _load ⑩；

In the formula, C _b-year is purchased electric cost; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of the song+line of loading; P-independently the distributed power generation investor sends out and supplies under the one operation mode, for purchasing by telephone electricity price from the city; Electric company sends out and supplies to be fired power generating unit desulfurization electricity price under the one operation mode.

Wherein, said year loan interest represented with following

formula:

C _l＝I _g×i _r×i _l

In the formula, C _l-distributed power generation preliminary expenses; i _r-investment loan ratio; i _l-year loan interest rate.

Wherein, said user's sale of electricity income is represented with following

formula:

I _s＝365×(E _K+E _d)×P _K×l _load

E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity.

Wherein, the online of said distributed power generation is sold the electricity income and is represented with following

formula:

I _d＝365×E _d×P _t×l _g

In the formula, I _dThe electricity income is sold in the online of-distributed power generation; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume; l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself; P _t-distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network, independently the distributed power generation investor sends out and supplies to be the distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network under the one operation mode; Electric company sends out and supplies to be the sale of electricity valency under the one operation mode.

Wherein, said government subsidy comprises construction investment subsidy and electricity price subsidy, and both select one of which;

Said construction investment subsidy is used

Be expression: G=I _g* k _g

Or the electricity price subsidy is used

Formula is represented: G=365 * (E _K+ E _t) * P _c* l _g* l _Load

In the formula, G-construction investment subsidy or electricity price allowance are used; I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; k _g-construction investment subsidy ratio; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume; l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself; P _cThe subsidy electricity price of-government; E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve.

Wherein, in the said step (5), said total expenses present worth C _pWith following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$C_p=I_g+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(M_g+C_L){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$C_p=I_g+I_e+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(M_g+M_e+L_l+C_{\mathrm{outage}}+C_b+C_L){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

In the formula, C _pTotal expenses present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; T-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate;

Said average annual expense present worth C _aWith following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$C_a=M_g+C_L+I_g\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$C_a=M_g+M_e+L_l+C_{\mathrm{outage}}+C_b+C_L+(I_g+I_e)\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

In the formula, C _aAverage annual expense present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; N-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate;

Said gross income present worth B _pAdopt and build the subsidy mode, with following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$B_p=G+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n{I}_d{(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$B_p=G+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(I_s+I_d){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

In the formula, B _pGross income present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; T-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate.

Said average annual time adjusted revenue B _aAdopt and build the subsidy mode, with following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$B_a=I_d+G\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$B_a=I_s+I_d+G\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

In the formula, B _aAverage annual time adjusted revenue under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; N-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate.

Wherein, in the said step (6), the value P of the income/cost in said cycle life-cycle _IWith following

Formula is represented:

P _I＝B/C

In the formula: B-cycle life-cycle financial value; C-overall life cycle cost value.

Wherein, in the said step (7), select P _IIf the operation mode that value is maximum is P _IValue explains then that greater than 1 the investor gets a profit under this operation mode.

With the prior art ratio, the beneficial effect that the present invention reaches is:

1, this method is from the actual operation mode of regenerative resource distributed power generation; Not only fully used income/assessment of cost method; Also adopted the theoretical and present worth theory of life-cycle period expense, increased substantially the actual operability of this method, had very high practical applications and be worth.

2, this method has overcome the problem that the prior art scheme is only paid close attention to the cost of distributed generation system own and benefit; Take all factors into consideration power supply cost, the government subsidy policy of power distribution network; Factors such as electrovalence policy and property right separation have been analyzed the influence of different operation modes to distributed generation system cost and benefit.

3, the present invention has not only provided the equipment overall life cycle cost and the income calculation model of distributed generation system itself, and has set up the overall life cycle cost and the Benefit Model of distributed power generation under the different operation modes.

4, this method has higher adaptability; Can be applicable to the cost/performance analysis of the operation mode of dissimilar regenerative resource distributed power generations (like wind energy, sun power etc.) or little electrical network; And, but do not contain the distributed generation system that the user generates power for their own use to the not restriction of scale of distributed generation system.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the cost effectiveness analysis method of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode provided by the invention;

Fig. 2 be distributed power generation provided by the invention exert oneself and power load between concern synoptic diagram;

Fig. 3 is that life-cycle period expense LCC provided by the invention constitutes synoptic diagram;

Fig. 4 is distributed power generation investor's under a different operation mode provided by the invention expenditure pattern synoptic diagram;

Fig. 5 is distributed power generation investor's under a different operation mode provided by the invention income formation synoptic diagram;

Fig. 6 is specific embodiment XX provided by the invention newly developed area photovoltaic generation operation mode Optimization result (total present worth) synoptic diagram;

Fig. 7 is specific embodiment XX provided by the invention newly developed area photovoltaic generation operation mode Optimization result (average annual present worth) synoptic diagram.

Embodiment

Be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing specific embodiments of the invention.

The cost effectiveness analysis method of the regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode that this method provides; Be used for analyzing the economy of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode; Set up the cycle life-cycle income/pricing model of distributed power generation under the different operation modes, specific embodiments is following.

1, the cycle life-cycle income/cost analysis of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode:

The process flow diagram of the cost effectiveness analysis method of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode is as shown in Figure 1, and process is following:

(1) confirm the operation mode that the regenerative resource distributed power generation is all:

There are two kinds of investors in distributed power generation, i.e. independently distributed power generation investor and electric company (the generating power for their own use distributed generation system not in this scope of customer investment); Existence is sent out the confession one and is sent out separately two kinds of operation ways of confession, and the distributed power generation existence is sent out and supplied to separate, independently the distributed power generation investor sends out and supplies one and electric company to send out 3 kinds of operation modes of confession one.

(2) exert oneself and load curve carries out The matching analysis to distributed; Confirm dissimilar electric weight: Fig. 2 be distributed power generation exert oneself and power load between concern synoptic diagram; Horizontal ordinate is the time; Ordinate is distributed exerting oneself or power load, and curve is electric weight (areas of different dash areas) to the integration of time, is divided into following 3 types: 1. the type be the distributed power generation electricity volume; 2. type the provides the power consumption of power supply to the user for distributed power generation; 3. type the provides the power consumption of power supply to the user for power distribution network.

(3) confirm that distributed power generation is at property right separation, boundary condition and calculating parameter under the different operation modes: supply under the separation mode at said, electric company and distributed power generation investor's property right separation is the access point of distributed power source; Send out said independently distributed power generation investor and to supply that the property right separation has multiple situation under the bulk-mode: 1. be the supply terminals of block supply; 2. 3. substation transformer low-pressure side of the 10kV outlet side of high voltage substation; 4. 0.4kV consumer unit inlet wire side; Send out in said electric company and to supply not have property right separation problem under the bulk-mode;

Comprise government subsidy policy, investment constraint and some assumed conditions in said different operation mode downstream condition; Calculating parameter comprises power supply reliability, line loss per unit, electricity price (distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network, sale of electricity valency, distributed power generation investor purchase electricity price), controller switching equipment comprehensive cost (mesolow circuit, substation transformer etc.), O&M rate, distributed power generation unit's installation cost, lending ratio, cycle equipment life, discount rate etc.

(4) confirm the expenditure pattern of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes and income formation:

One, the expenditure pattern in cycle life-cycle comprise power distribution network in the initial investment expense, power supply area of distributed power generation initial investment expense, year operation operation and maintenance cost, year directly loss of outage expense, year purchase electric cost and year loan interest, as shown in Figure 3.Adopt different operation modes, cost structure can be different, as shown in Figure 4.

(1) the initial investment expense of distributed power generation is represented with following 1. formula:

I _g＝W×C _w ①；

In the formula, I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; The installed capacity of W-distributed power generation; C _wThe unit installed capacity expense of-distributed power generation.

(2) power distribution network initial investment expense is represented with following 2. formula in the power supply area:

$I_e=\underset{i=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{Q}_i\×I_i$ ②；

In the formula, I _ePower distribution network initial investment expense in the-power supply area; Q _iThe construction scale of different controller switching equipments such as-distribution line, switch, transformer, gauging table meter; I _iThe cost of-unit equipment.

(3) year operation and maintenance cost comprises the operation and maintenance cost of distributed power generation, the operation and maintenance cost and year wear and tear expenses usefulness of the interior power distribution network of power supply area.

The year operation and maintenance cost of distributed power generation is represented with following 3. formula:

M _g=I _g×R _g ③；

In the formula, M _gThe operation and maintenance cost of-distributed power generation; I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; R _gThe operation and maintenance cost of-distributed power generation.

The year operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network is represented with following 4. formula in the power supply area:

M _e=I _e×R _e ④；

In the formula, M _eThe operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network in the-power supply area; I _eThe initial investment expense of power distribution network in the-power supply area; R _eThe operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network in the-power supply area.

Year wear and tear expenses comprise distributed power generation generate power for their own use kwh loss expense, distributed power generation electricity volume wear and tear expense and purchase by telephone electric part kwh loss expense from the city;

The said distributed power generation kwh loss expense of generating power for their own use is represented with following 5. formula:

L _l＝L _l1+L _l2+L _l3 ⑤；

Wherein:

L _l1=365×(E _K×R _l1×P _K)×l _load ⑥；

In the formula, L _L1-distributed power generation kwh loss the expense of generating power for their own use; E _k-typical case day (like the peak day in the summer) distributed power generation electric weight (among Fig. 2 2. part area) of generating power for their own use; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient (generally adopting the typical daily load curve in the four seasons) of load curve; R _L1The line loss per unit of-the part of generating power for their own use electric weight, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity;

L _l2=365×(E _t×R _l2×P _t)×l _g ⑦；

In the formula, L _L2-distributed power generation electricity volume wear and tear expense; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume (among Fig. 2 1. part area); l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself (generally adopting the typical daily output curve in the four seasons); R _L2-distributed power generation electricity volume line loss per unit, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _t-distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network;

L _l3=365×(E _b×R _l3×P _b)×l _load ⑧；

In the formula, L _L3-city purchases by telephone electric part kwh loss expense; E _b-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; R _L3-purchase the power consumption line loss per unit, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _b-purchase by telephone electricity price from the city.

(4) a year direct loss of outage expense is represented with following 9. formula:

C _outage＝365×(E _K+E _d)×(1-R ₃)×P _K×l _load ⑨；

In the formula, C _Outage-year direct loss of outage expense; E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; R ₃-service area intra domain user power supply reliability; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity.

(5) year purchasing electric cost representes with following 10. formula:

C _b=365×E _d×P _b×l _load ⑩；

In the formula, C _b-year is purchased electric cost; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; P-independently the distributed power generation investor sends out and supplies under the one operation mode, for purchasing by telephone electricity price from the city; Electric company sends out and supplies to be fired power generating unit desulfurization electricity price under the one operation mode.

(6) a year loan interest is represented with following

formula:

C _l＝I _g×i _r×i _l

In the formula, C _l-distributed power generation preliminary expenses; i _r-investment loan ratio; i _l-year loan interest rate.

Two, the income formation in cycle life-cycle comprises that user's sale of electricity income, distributed power generation online sell electricity income and government subsidy.

Distributed power generation investor's income formation is as shown in Figure 5 under the different operation mode provided by the invention.

(1) user's sale of electricity income is represented with following

formula:

I _s＝365×(E _K+E _d)×P _K×l _load

E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight (among Fig. 2 2. part area) of generating power for their own use; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight (Fig. 2 3. part area) from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient (generally adopting the typical daily load curve in the four seasons) of load curve; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity.

(2) distributed power generation online is sold the electricity income and is represented with following

formula:

I _d＝365×E _d×P _t×l _g

In the formula, I _dThe electricity income is sold in the online of-distributed power generation; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume (among Fig. 2 1. part area); l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself (generally adopting the typical daily output curve in the four seasons); P _t-distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network, independently the distributed power generation investor sends out and supplies to be the distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network under the one operation mode; Electric company sends out and supplies to be the sale of electricity valency under the one operation mode.

(3) government subsidy generally has two kinds of forms, and a kind of is construction investment subsidy, generally account for the initial stage construction investment certain proportion (as, golden sun engineering is 50%); A kind of is the electricity price subsidy, confirms online mark post electricity price by China's National Development and Reform Commission, and both select one of which.

Said construction investment subsidy is used

Be expression: G=I _g* k _g

Or the electricity price subsidy is used Formula is represented: G=365 * (E _K+ E _t) * P _c* l _g* l _Load

In the formula, G-construction investment subsidy or electricity price allowance are used; I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; k _g-construction investment subsidy ratio; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume (among Fig. 2 1. part area); l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself (generally adopting the typical daily output curve in the four seasons); P _cThe subsidy electricity price of-government; E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight (among Fig. 2 2. part area) of generating power for their own use; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient (generally adopting the typical daily load curve in the four seasons) of load curve.

(5) confirm total expenses present worth, average annual expense present worth and gross income present worth and the average annual time adjusted revenue of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes:

One, to every kind of operation mode; Total expenses present worth and gross income present worth in computing technique scheme cycle life-cycle; Need promptly convert the present worth sum of first stage of construction (being first beginning of the year of project given period) to project income and the expense of each year in the given period according to the discount rate of an appointment.

Total expenses present worth C _pWith following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$C_p=I_g+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(M_g+C_L){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$C_p=I_g+I_e+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(M_g+M_e+L_l+C_{\mathrm{outage}}+C_b+C_L){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

In the formula, C _pTotal expenses present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; T-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate;

Gross income present worth B _pAdopt and build the subsidy mode, with following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$B_p=G+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n{I}_d{(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$B_p=G+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(I_s+I_d){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

In the formula, B _pGross income present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; T-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate.

Two, confirm average annual expense present worth and the average annual time adjusted revenue of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes: to every kind of operation mode; Average annual expense present worth in the computing technique scheme life cycle and average annual time adjusted revenue, the gross income and the total expenses that are about in each technical scheme life cycle are converted into the single-candidate annual cost.

Average annual expense present worth C _aWith following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$C_a=M_g+C_L+I_g\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$C_a=M_g+M_e+L_l+C_{\mathrm{outage}}+C_b+C_L+(I_g+I_e)\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

In the formula, C _aAverage annual expense present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; N-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate;

Average annual time adjusted revenue B _aAdopt and build the subsidy mode, with following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$B_a=I_d+G\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$B_a=I_s+I_d+G\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

In the formula, B _aAverage annual time adjusted revenue under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; N-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate.

(6) confirm the value P of the income/cost of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes _I

The value P of the income/cost in cycle life-cycle _IWith following

Formula is represented:

P＝B/C

In the formula: B-cycle life-cycle financial value; C-overall life cycle cost value;

(7) select P _IIf the operation mode that value is maximum is P _IValue explains then that greater than 1 the investor gets a profit under this operation mode.

Embodiment

A, newly developed area load and photovoltaic generation component analysis:

1.5 square kilometres of new section plannings in XX city are as photovoltaic generation demonstration area, peak load 12.89MW.Arrange photovoltaic panel on every building roof, the whole dwelling house building of communities is become architecture-integral parallel networking type photovoltaic power generation project.Construction project is mainly fund-raising construction in a systematic way protection house, totally 294; City's infrastructure such as school of having stable political situation, totally 34; Public service facilities such as supermarket, totally 11.

Built-up radiation annual amount in newly developed area is about 1500kWh/ ㎡, and year sunshine time is more than 2800h, and solar energy resources belongs to II class " very abundant band ".Sun power installation 13.4MW, annual electricity generating capacity 1314.7 ten thousand kWh, newly developed area total electricity consumption are 855.621 ten thousand kWh/.The photovoltaic generation amount in newly developed area is 1.54 times of power consumption approximately, explains that solar electrical energy generation has bigger affluence.

B, newly developed area power distribution network construction scheme and grid-connected scheme:

1 in the new newly-built 110/10kV of section planning transformer station, capacity 2 * 40MVA; Plan that newly-built 21 10kV casees become, wherein 19 capacity are 800kVA, and 2 capacity are 630kVA, and every seat-box becomes 8-20 residential building power supply.

Adopt " two electrical network " scheme that is incorporated into the power networks for sending out confession operation mode separately, scheme is incorporated into the power networks for sending out the operation mode employing " single electrical network " that supplies one.

C, about the property right separation:

1) the 10kV of 110kV transformer station outlet side as the property right separation;

2) the high pressure inlet wire side of box-type substation as the property right separation;

3) every 0.4kV consumer unit inlet wire side downstairs as the property right separation;

D, boundary condition and calculating parameter:

1) building information: suppose the floor area of building of every building, roof area, house type is identical with amount;

2) photovoltaic generation exert oneself with investment situation see table 1 for details;

3) the electricity price situation sees table 2 for details;

4) the controller switching equipment comprehensive cost is seen table 3;

5) loan: lending ratio is pressed 50% of first current cost, loan interest rate 7.05%;

6) government subsidy is pressed one-time construction subsidy consideration.

E, result of calculation:

1) sending out under the operation mode that supplies one, no matter be to adopt which kind of property right separation, electric company all gets a profit;

Sending out under the operation mode that supplies one, giving independently photovoltaic generation investor operation whole newly developed area, getting a profit; But along with the variation (0.4kV consumer unit inlet wire side is as the property right separation) of property right separation, the investor begins loss;

3) no matter adopt which kind of property right separation, adopt to send out to supply separately operation mode, independently the photovoltaic generation investor is lost.Specific embodiment XX provided by the invention newly developed area photovoltaic generation operation mode Optimization result (total present worth) and (annual present worth) are shown in Fig. 6 and 7.

Table 1, table 2 and table 3 are following:

Table 1 photovoltaic generation is exerted oneself and investment situation

Numbering	Project	Comprehensive cost	Unit
					1	Photovoltaic unit area generated energy	1729	kWh/m2
2	The photo-voltaic power supply component efficiency	14%	-
				3	System loss	20%	-
4	The photovoltaic apparatus life cycle	25	Year
				5	Photovoltaic apparatus O&M rate	3%
6	Line loss per unit	3%
				7	Photovoltaic unit's installation cost	29.4	Unit/Wp

Table 2 electricity price situation

Table 3 controller switching equipment comprehensive cost

This method has higher adaptability, can be applicable to the dissimilar regenerative resource distributed power generations (like wind energy, sun power etc.) or the cost of little power grid operation pattern/performance analysis and calculates; This method has overcome the problem that the prior art scheme is only paid close attention to distributed generation system economy own; Take all factors into consideration power supply cost, the government subsidy policy of power distribution network; Factors such as electrovalence policy and property right separation; The overall life cycle cost and the Benefit Model of distributed power generation under the different operation modes have been set up; Filled up the blank of China aspect distributed power generation operation mode economic analysis, can solve the cost/efficiency problem of regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode, for the regenerative resource distributed power generation is established solid theory with the formulation of the relevant supporting policy of power distribution network.It is theoretical that this method has fully been used income/assessment of cost method, life-cycle period expense theory and present worth, is a kind of method of decision analysis with regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode of very high actual operability.

Should be noted that at last: above embodiment is only in order to technical scheme of the present invention to be described but not to its restriction; Although the present invention has been carried out detailed explanation with reference to the foregoing description; Under the those of ordinary skill in field be to be understood that: still can specific embodiments of the invention make amendment or be equal to replacement; And do not break away from any modification of spirit and scope of the invention or be equal to replacement, it all should be encompassed in the middle of the claim scope of the present invention.

Claims (20)

1. the cost effectiveness analysis method of a regenerative resource distributed power generation operation mode is characterized in that, said method comprises the steps:

(1) confirms the operation mode that the regenerative resource distributed power generation is all;

(2) exert oneself and load curve carries out The matching analysis to distributed, confirm dissimilar electric weight;

(3) confirm property right separation, boundary condition and the calculating parameter of distributed power generation under different operation modes;

(4) confirm the expenditure pattern of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes and income formation;

(5) confirm total expenses present worth, average annual expense present worth and gross income present worth, the average annual time adjusted revenue of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes;

(6) confirm the value P of the income/cost of distributed power generation in cycle life-cycle under different operation modes _I

(7) select the maximum scheme of value of income/cost, confirm the optimum operation mode of distributed power generation.

2. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 1; It is characterized in that; In the said step (1), all operation modes of said regenerative resource distributed power generation comprise that a confession separates, independently the distributed power generation investor sends out and supplies one and electric company to send out three kinds of operation modes of confession one.

3. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, in the said step (2), said dissimilar electric weight comprise generated energy, distributed power generation electricity volume, the user power utilization amount of distributed power source and purchase electric weight.

4. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, in the said step (3), supplies under the separation mode at said, and electric company and distributed power generation investor's property right separation is the access point of distributed power source; Send out said independently distributed power generation investor and to supply that the property right separation has multiple situation under the bulk-mode: 1. be the supply terminals of block supply; 2. 3. substation transformer low-pressure side of the 10kV outlet side of high voltage substation; 4. 0.4kV consumer unit inlet wire side; Send out in said electric company and to supply not have property right separation problem under the bulk-mode;

Comprise government subsidy policy, investment constraint and some assumed conditions in said different operation mode downstream condition; Calculating parameter comprises power supply reliability, line loss per unit, electricity price, controller switching equipment comprehensive cost, O&M rate, distributed power generation unit's installation cost, lending ratio, cycle equipment life and discount rate.

5. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 1; It is characterized in that; In the said step (4), supply to separate under the operation mode at said, distributed power generation investor's cost structure mainly comprises initial outlay expense, operation and maintenance cost and the loan cost of distributed power generation; Supply under the one operation mode at said, electric company or distributed power generation investor's cost structure mainly comprise distributed power generation and regional distribution network initial investment expense and operation and maintenance cost, wear and tear expense, loss of outage expense, purchase electric cost and loan cost;

Supply separately under the operation mode at said, distributed power generation investor's income formation comprises that mainly distributed power generation sells electricity income and government subsidy; Supply under the one operation mode at said, electric company or distributed power generation investor's income formation comprises that mainly sale of electricity income, distributed power generation sell electricity income and government subsidy.

6. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, the initial investment expense of said distributed power generation is represented with following 1. formula:

I _g＝W×C _w ①；

In the formula, I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; The installed capacity of W-distributed power generation; C _wThe unit installed capacity expense of-distributed power generation.

7. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, power distribution network initial investment expense is represented with following 2. formula in the said power supply area:

$I_e=\underset{i=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{Q}_i\×I_i$ ②

In the formula, I _ePower distribution network initial investment expense in the-power supply area; Q _iThe construction scale expense of-distribution line, switch, transformer and gauging table meter controller switching equipment; I _iThe cost of-unit equipment.

8. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, operation and maintenance cost comprised the operation and maintenance cost of distributed power generation, the operation and maintenance cost and year wear and tear expenses usefulness of the interior power distribution network of power supply area in said year.

9. cycle life-cycle income/method of cost accounting as claimed in claim 8 is characterized in that, the year operation and maintenance cost of said distributed power generation is represented with following 3. formula:

M _g=I _g×R _g ③；

In the formula, M _gThe operation and maintenance cost of-distributed power generation; I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; R _gThe operation and maintenance cost of-distributed power generation.

10. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 8 is characterized in that, the year operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network is represented with following 4. formula in the said power supply area:

M _e=I _e×R _e ④；

In the formula, M _eThe operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network in the-power supply area; I _eThe initial investment expense of power distribution network in the-power supply area; R _eThe operation and maintenance cost of power distribution network in the-power supply area.

11. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 8 is characterized in that, said year wear and tear expenses comprise distributed power generation generate power for their own use kwh loss expense, distributed power generation electricity volume wear and tear expense and purchase by telephone electric part kwh loss expense from the city;

The said distributed power generation kwh loss expense of generating power for their own use is represented with following 5. formula:

L _l＝L _l1+L _l2+L _l3 ⑤；

Wherein:

L _l1=365×(E _K×R ₁×P _K)×l _load ⑥；

In the formula, L _L1-distributed power generation kwh loss the expense of generating power for their own use; E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; R _L1The line loss per unit of-the part of generating power for their own use electric weight, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity;

L _l2=365×(E _t×R _l2×P _t)×l _g ⑦；

In the formula, L _L2-distributed power generation electricity volume wear and tear expense; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume; l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself; R _L2-distributed power generation electricity volume line loss per unit, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _t-distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network;

L _l3=365×(E _b×R _l3×P _b)×l _load ⑧；

In the formula, L _L3-city purchases by telephone electric part kwh loss expense; E _b-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; R _L3-purchase the power consumption line loss per unit, said line loss per unit is calculated according to transmission range; P _b-purchase by telephone electricity price from the city.

12. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, direct loss of outage expense was represented with following 9. formula in said year:

C _outage＝365×(E _K+E _d)×(1-R ₃)×P _K×l _load ⑨；

In the formula, C _Outage-year direct loss of outage expense; E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; R ₃-service area intra domain user power supply reliability; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity.

13. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, purchases electric cost and representes with following 10. formula in said year:

C _b=365×E _d×P _b×l _load ⑩；

In the formula, C _b-year is purchased electric cost; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; P-independently distributed power generation investor sends out under the confession one operation mode, for purchasing by telephone electricity price from the city; Electric company sends out and supplies to be fired power generating unit desulfurization electricity price under the one operation mode.

14. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5; It is characterized in that loan interest was represented with following

formula in said year:

C _l＝I _g×i _r×i _l

In the formula, C _l-distributed power generation preliminary expenses; i _r-investment loan ratio; i _l-year loan interest rate.

15. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5; It is characterized in that said user's sale of electricity income is represented with following

formula:

I _s＝365×(E _K+E _d)×P _K×l _load

E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; E _d-typical case day power supply area is purchased by telephone electric weight from the city; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve; P _k-distributed power generation sales rate of electricity.

16. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5; It is characterized in that said distributed power generation online is sold the electricity income and represented with following

formula:

I _d＝365×E _d×P _t×l _g

In the formula, I _dThe electricity income is sold in the online of-distributed power generation; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume; l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself; P _t-distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network, independently the distributed power generation investor sends out and supplies to be the distributed power generation rate for incorporation into the power network under the one operation mode; Electric company sends out and supplies to be the sale of electricity valency under the one operation mode.

17. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, said government subsidy comprises construction investment subsidy and electricity price subsidy, and both select one of which;

Said construction investment subsidy is used

Be expression: G=I _g* k _g

Or the electricity price subsidy is used

Formula is represented: G=365 * (E _K+ E _t) * P _c* l _g* l _Load

In the formula, G-construction investment subsidy or electricity price allowance are used; I _gThe initial investment expense of-distributed power generation; k _g-construction investment subsidy ratio; E _t-typical case day distributed power generation electricity volume; l _g-seasonal variations is to distributed influence coefficient of exerting oneself; P _cThe subsidy electricity price of-government; E _k-typical case day the distributed power generation electric weight of generating power for their own use; l _Load-seasonal variations is to the influence coefficient of load curve.

18. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, in the said step (5), and said total expenses present worth C _pWith following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$C_p=I_g+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(M_g+C_L){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$C_p=I_g+I_e+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(M_g+M_e+L_l+C_{\mathrm{outage}}+C_b+C_L){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

In the formula, C _pTotal expenses present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; T-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate;

Said average annual expense present worth C _aWith following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$C_a=M_g+C_L+I_g\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$C_a=M_g+M_e+L_l+C_{\mathrm{outage}}+C_b+C_L+(I_g+I_e)\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

In the formula, C _aAverage annual expense present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; N-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate;

Said gross income present worth B _pAdopt and build the subsidy mode, with following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$B_p=G+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n{I}_d{(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$B_p=G+{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=0}^n(I_s+I_d){(1+i_c)}^{-t}$

In the formula, B _pGross income present worth under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; T-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate.

Said average annual time adjusted revenue B _aAdopt and build the subsidy mode, with following

With

Formula is represented:

Send out and supply to separate under the operation mode:

$B_a=I_d+G\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

Send out and supply under the one operation mode:

$B_a=I_s+I_d+G\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}$

In the formula, B _aAverage annual time adjusted revenue under the-different operation modes in cycle equipment life-cycle; N-interest-bearing number of times, i.e. lifetime, unit is year; i _c-discount rate.

19. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, in the said step (6), and the value P of the income/cost in said cycle life-cycle _IWith following

Formula is represented:

P _I=B/C

In the formula: B-cycle life-cycle financial value; C-overall life cycle cost value.

20. cost effectiveness analysis method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, in the said step (7), selects P _IIf the operation mode that value is maximum is P _IValue explains then that greater than 1 the investor gets a profit under this operation mode.

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