CN102800029B - Same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method - Google Patents
Same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method, comprising the following steps of: assessing each external risk value of a same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit through a statistical analysis method; modeling in a combined manner, and assembling each internal risk value of the same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit by combining the statistical analysis method; and accessing a total probability risk index value by combining each external risk value and each internal risk value according to a total probability formula. The same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method provided by the invention can be comprehensively and entirely realized, and reliable parameter estimation and reasonability analysis can be carried out by operating statistical data through a power transmission and transformation facility with national and local calibers, so that a rigorous mould principle, reasonable parameters and a credible assessment result can be realized. The invention provides a probability risk assessment method in a super-grid popularization same-tower multi-loop technology, and provides quantitative reliable assessment and engineering auxiliary criterion for the super-grid popularization same-tower multi-loop technology.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Transmission Network Reliability assessment technology field, particularly the risk probability appraisal procedure of the transmission of electricity pattern of this complexity of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity.
Background technology
Along with the continuous propelling of urbanization process, land resource day is becoming tight, and day by day can reduce, must improve the ability to transmit electricity of unit line width of corridor for the land used of power transmission line corridor.Along with load rises year by year, urban network reconstruction can not be stagnated.By the impact of city planning, electric network reconstruction is often limited in original corridor, for improving transmission capacity, need improve electric pressure, increasing conveying loop.Remove in original line corridor and oldly build new, boosting or increase loop, is only had and could be solved by parallel erected on same tower multi circuit transmission lines.The erection of multiple-loop line road is exactly arise at the historic moment under this background.
Multiple-loop line technology of transmission of electricity to refer on a transmission line of electricity and the many loop lines of frame, thus compression line corridor takes up an area and improves the technology of transmission of electricity of its unit corridor ability to transmit electricity.Adopt multiple-loop line transmission of electricity to be solve the effective means that transmission of electricity corridor is nervous, save land resource, improve transmission capacity, be particularly suitable for applying in economically developed, densely populated areas, there is obvious economic benefit and social benefit.At present, in transmission tine planning design, as " Meng Suiming, Kong Wei. overhead transmission line designs. China Electric Power Publishing House, 2007 "; " Mao Xiaohua. Transmission Line Design basis. Chinese Water Conservancy electric power publishing house, 2007 ", its fault mode is mainly considered to the independent failure of element.By the analysis to many part reliabilities such as circuit, shaft tower, insulators, combination obtains the reliability level of whole passway for transmitting electricity.At present, this cover statistical analysis technique defines industry standard, obtains the elaboration of system in " power transformating and supplying facility reliability evaluation code " (DL/T 837,2003), and defines the unified operational reliability statistical analysis technique in the whole nation.In addition, also has a large amount of reliability analysis research causing power transmission engineering fault about weather extremes, as " Hu Yi. transmission line of electricity operational failure analysis and control. China Electric Power Publishing House; 2007 ", " Wang Shouli; Li Jiayuan, Lee crosses mountains group. and mima type microrelief microclimate is on the impact sending a circuit. China Electric Power Publishing House, 1999 ".But, existing power transmission engineering reliability theory method be all as " Guo Yongji. reliability engineering. publishing house of Tsing-Hua University; 2001 " one based on element fault independently disjunctive model, separate Modling model by all parts fault mode, then the concept applying common factor carries out the combination of fault.But multiple-loop line transmission of electricity is compared with routine single time power transmission mode, and the most outstanding integrity problem is that the failure rate of common mode failure can improve greatly, and it is several that multiloop fault mode should comprise independent failure, ageing failure, common cause fault, overlapping fault etc.Therefore, simple compositional modeling is not enough to the reliability model obtaining accurate multiple-loop line road.In addition, at present all single loop or common-tower double-return road in the 500kV transmission line of electricity major part of fortune, 500kV multiple-loop line road more than double back is still rare, therefore, although there is the reliability model on a small amount of literature research common-tower double-return road, but the reliability theory model on multiple-loop line road and appraisal procedure are all not yet set up, the total probability risk evaluation model also theoretical model and inclement weather statistical study not combined and appraisal procedure.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to promote multiple-loop line road technique for supergrid and probability distributive function method is provided, for China's supergrid promotes reliability assessment and engineering assistant criteria that multiple-loop line road technique provides quantification.Propose the same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method considering external climate environmental factor and inner member electric fault.
Technical scheme of the present invention is:
A kind of same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method, comprises the following steps:
1) each Outer risks value and each internal risks value of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity is estimated respectively; Wherein by each Outer risks value of statistical analysis technique estimation multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity; By array mode modeling, and estimate each internal risks value of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity in conjunction with statistical analysis technique;
2) according to total probability formula, each Outer risks value and each internal risks value is combined, estimation overall probability risk indicator value.
Wherein obtain the dependability parameter such as failure rate, fault correction time of all a certain faults according to total probability formula, and then calculate the value-at-risk of a certain fault; Calculate the out of order value-at-risk addition of institute and obtain overall risk value.
Each Outer risks value of described step 1) estimation multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity comprises following situation:
11) to meteorology and the environment investigation and analysis of region, transmission line of electricity place, multiple-loop line road, the various boisterous probability of happening of statistical study, duration;
12) by the accident statistics result of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity, 12) by the accident statistics result of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity, analyze the impact of various inclement weather on transmission line of electricity operational reliability, estimate its reliability index.
Described inclement weather comprises disaster caused by a windstorm, ice and snow, thunderstorm or bird pest; Described reliability index comprises failure rate, average each trouble duration.
Each internal risks value of described step 1) estimation multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity comprises the following steps:
21) set up multiple-loop line transmission line of electricity reliability model of unit, wherein reliability model comprises independent failure model, multiple failure model, the element fault model of ageing failure, common cause fault model;
22) according to step 21) reliability model set up the global reliability model of multiple-loop line transmission line of electricity elements combination; Obtain incidence and the repair time of various fault, then calculate the probability risk index needed for various statistical study;
23) the statistical study parameter of computing electric power line operation; Adopt many bores data statistics comparative analysis method, calculate incidence and the repair time of all kinds of faults of multiple-loop line transmission line of electricity and related keyword parts thereof respectively, set up the forecast interval value of parameter according to bore difference;
24) integrating step 22), step 23) obtain the statistical study parameter that reliability model and transmission line of electricity run, calculate internal risks value.
Wherein step 22) the global reliability model set up considers step 21) described in several models, set up a kind of reliability model of its model feature comprehensive.
Further, step 23) described in related keyword part insulates, aerial earth wire, electric transmission pole tower, wire.
Described step 2) also comprise by sensitivity analysis, the value rationality of element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, tripping rate with lightning strike is analyzed.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: comprehensive, complete probability risk model, index system and the appraisal procedure establishing multiple-loop line road power transmission engineering, and carry out dependability parameter estimation and analysis on its rationality by the power transformating and supplying facility operating statistic data of the whole nation and two bores in Guangdong, model theory is rigorous, Rational Parameters, assessment result is credible, the Appreciation gist that multiple-loop line road technique provides science being promoted to China's supergrid, with developing in a healthy way, there is positive directive significance to the planning construction of China's grid.
Accompanying drawing explanation
The 500kV that Fig. 1 assesses for the present invention feeds back three cross-arm tangent tower structural representations of electrical engineering with tower four.
Embodiment
The same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method that the present invention proposes, according to total probability causation analysis, the probability risk value of multiple-loop line work transmission line is divided into Outer risks value and internal risks value two parts, adopts different thinking and countermeasure to carry out modeling and analysis and assessment respectively.
Outer risks value is according to the meteorology of region, transmission line of electricity place, V multiple-loop line road and environment investigation and analysis, the boisterous especially probability of happening of statistical study, duration; And according to the accident statistics result of national multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity, analyze the external environment conditions such as strong wind, ice and snow, thunderstorm, bird pest to the impact of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity operational reliability, estimate its reliability index.
Internal risks value adopts classical disjunctive model combined method, in the present embodiment with the three cross-arm tangent towers in same tower four loop for example, to each critical components such as wire, insulator, aerial earth wire, electric transmission pole towers, take into full account various faults and the stoppage in transit patterns such as independent failure, common mode failure, degradation failure, scheduled overhaul, set up complete reliability built-up pattern, then calculate internal risks value index according to its dependability parameter of statistical forecast.
The present invention proposes same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method and implements as follows:
1, set up by statistical analysis technique and estimate each Outer risks value of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity;
According to meteorology and the environment investigation and analysis of region, power transmission engineering place, multiple-loop line road, the exceedingly odious weather probability of happening of statistical study and duration, and carry out its reliability index of approximate estimation by the accident statistics interpretation of result strong wind of national multiple-circuit on same tower, ice and snow, thunderstorm, the impact of bird pest on circuit operational reliability.
2, by array mode modeling, and the internal risks value of multiple-loop line road power transmission engineering is calculated in conjunction with statistical analysis technique.
Utilize total probability causation analysis, by the method that theoretical modeling and statistical study combine, considered the combination of the various faults type of each critical component of multiple-loop line road power transmission engineering, set up the internal risks model of comprehensive multiple-loop line road power transmission engineering, concrete grammar flow process is as follows:
21) circuit reliability model
According to Markov theory model, the theory of multiple-loop line route road being carried out to various fault mode is set up, and specifically comprises: element fault model, the common cause fault model of independent failure model, multiple failure model, consideration ageing failure.
22) according to three cross-arm tangent tower design features, the global reliability model of elements combination is set up.
The global reliability model on multiple-loop line route road includes the parts such as steel tower, insulator, wire, aerial earth wire, has also counted the impact of scheduled overhaul simultaneously.
The reliability model feature qualitative analysis of three cross-arm tangent towers is as follows:
221) if steel tower breaks down, then all stop transport in four loop line roads.
222) if a certain bar circuit itself or coupled insulator break down, then this line outage.
Thus, suppose steel tower, aerial earth wire, the failure rate of insulator and circuit, repair time is respectively
, failure rate and the repair time of common cause fault are respectively
.Then for the shaft tower of two kinds of structures, respectively once, twice, three times, the possible situation of four times line outages is enumerated as follows (not considering triple above overlapping fault):
Stop transport for (1) one time: a line fault or a string insulator breakdown.
Stop transport for (2) twice: a loop line road or insulator breakdown and another time line fault overlap, or an aerial earth wire fault, cause corresponding twice line outages.
Stop transport for (3) three times: an aerial earth wire fault causes corresponding twice line outages, then with other line fault overlap.
Stop transport for (4) four times: the diastrous weathers such as steel tower fault or circuit are subject to icing, rime and other accident affect and break down.
So, Tong Ta tetra-road power transmission engineering can be set up failure rate and the repair time that one gets back to four times occurs, the probability risk index needed for various analysis can be calculated further.
23) model parameter according to operating statistic value obtains.
Adopt many bores data statistics comparative analysis method, the whole nation and two, power transmission engineering region, multiple-loop line road bore is adopted to carry out the statistical study of transmission line of electricity operational reliability, set up respectively all kinds of fault modes of circuit and related keyword parts (wire, insulator, aerial earth wire, steel tower) thereof failure rate and repair time parameter, set up the forecast interval value of parameter according to bore difference.
24) inner probability risk index calculate.
Adopt above-mentioned model and operating statistic parameter, calculate the overall probability risk index of multiple-loop line road power transmission engineering.And by sensitivity analysis, the value rationality of crucial sensitive parameter is analyzed.
3, according to total probability thinking, inside, Outer risks value are combined, calculated population probability risk desired value.
Claims (4)
1. a same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method, is characterized in that comprising the following steps:
1) each Outer risks value and each internal risks value of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity is estimated respectively; Wherein by each Outer risks value of statistical analysis technique estimation multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity; By array mode modeling, and estimate each internal risks value of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity in conjunction with statistical analysis technique;
2) according to total probability formula, each Outer risks value and each internal risks value is combined, estimation overall probability risk indicator value;
Described step 1) be the method combined by theoretical modeling and statistical study, consider the combination of the various faults type of each critical component of multiple-loop line road power transmission engineering, set up the internal risks model of comprehensive multiple-loop line road power transmission engineering, concrete grammar flow process is as follows:
21) circuit reliability model
According to Markov theory model, the theory of multiple-loop line route road being carried out to various fault mode is set up, and specifically comprises: element fault model, the common cause fault model of independent failure model, multiple failure model, consideration ageing failure;
22) according to three cross-arm tangent tower design features, the global reliability model of elements combination is set up;
The global reliability model on multiple-loop line route road includes steel tower, insulator, wire, aerial earth wire parts, has also counted the impact of scheduled overhaul simultaneously;
The reliability model feature qualitative analysis of three cross-arm tangent towers is as follows:
221) if steel tower breaks down, then all stop transport in four loop line roads;
222) if a certain bar circuit itself or coupled insulator break down, then this line outage;
Suppose steel tower, aerial earth wire, the failure rate of insulator and circuit, repair time is respectively λ
t, r
t, λ
d, r
d, λ
j, r
j, λ
i, r
i, failure rate and the repair time of common cause fault are respectively λ
c, r
c; Then for the shaft tower of two kinds of structures, respectively once, twice, three times, the situation of four times line outages is enumerated as follows:
Stop transport for (1) one time: a line fault or a string insulator breakdown;
Stop transport for (2) twice: a loop line road or insulator breakdown and another time line fault overlap, or an aerial earth wire fault, cause corresponding twice line outages;
Stop transport for (3) three times: an aerial earth wire fault causes corresponding twice line outages, then with other line fault overlap;
Stop transport for (4) four times: steel tower fault or circuit are subject to diastrous weather and accident affects and breaks down;
So, Tong Ta tetra-road power transmission engineering can be set up failure rate and the repair time that one gets back to four times occurs, the probability risk index needed for various analysis can be calculated further;
23) model parameter according to operating statistic value obtains.
2. same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method according to claim 1, is characterized in that described step 1) estimate that each Outer risks value of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity comprises following situation:
11) to meteorology and the environment investigation and analysis of region, transmission line of electricity place, multiple-loop line road, the various boisterous probability of happening of statistical study, duration;
12) by the accident statistics result of multiple-loop line road transmission line of electricity, analyze the impact of various inclement weather on transmission line of electricity operational reliability, estimate its reliability index.
3. same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method according to claim 2, is characterized in that described inclement weather comprises disaster caused by a windstorm, ice and snow, thunderstorm or bird pest; Described reliability index comprises failure rate, average each trouble duration.
4. same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method according to claim 1, is characterized in that described step 2) also comprise by sensitivity analysis, the value rationality of element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, tripping rate with lightning strike is analyzed.
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| CN103336879A (en) * | 2013-03-13 | 2013-10-02 | 云南电力试验研究院（集团）有限公司电力研究院 | Short-term reliability evaluation method of high-voltage breaker |
| CN104143158A (en) * | 2013-05-31 | 2014-11-12 | 贵州电网公司电力调度控制中心 | Method for monitoring reliability of power system element under condition of multiple meteorological factors |
| CN103646296A (en) * | 2013-11-29 | 2014-03-19 | 国家电网公司 | Outage probability computation model based on environmental factors |
| CN103793854B (en) * | 2014-01-21 | 2015-09-30 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | The overhead transmission line operation risk informatization evaluation method that Multiple Combination is optimized |
| CN104574217A (en) * | 2015-01-22 | 2015-04-29 | 国家电网公司 | Intelligent power distribution network online risk assessment method |
| CN107578174B (en) * | 2017-09-08 | 2018-09-07 | 贵州电网有限责任公司输电运行检修分公司 | A kind of grid methods of risk assessment based on electric power line pole tower fail-safe analysis |
| CN107886220B (en) * | 2017-10-23 | 2022-01-25 | 广西电网有限责任公司南宁供电局 | Distribution line risk probability assessment method based on historical factor analysis |
| CN108345575A (en) * | 2018-02-10 | 2018-07-31 | 杭州后博科技有限公司 | A kind of steel tower thunder resisting equipment probability of malfunction computational methods and system |
| CN110189011B (en) * | 2019-05-23 | 2021-06-01 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | Fault assessment method and system for intensive power transmission channel under natural disaster |
| CN110442899B (en) * | 2019-06-14 | 2022-12-23 | 广东电网有限责任公司江门供电局 | Method for analyzing health condition of power transmission line tower |
| CN112579719B (en) * | 2020-12-18 | 2022-09-06 | 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | High-voltage line multi-loop display method based on power map and storage medium |
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