CN102699302A - Bleed-out forecasting system and forecasting method of slab continuous casting crystallizer - Google Patents

Bleed-out forecasting system and forecasting method of slab continuous casting crystallizer Download PDF

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CN102699302A
CN102699302A CN2012102369948A CN201210236994A CN102699302A CN 102699302 A CN102699302 A CN 102699302A CN 2012102369948 A CN2012102369948 A CN 2012102369948A CN 201210236994 A CN201210236994 A CN 201210236994A CN 102699302 A CN102699302 A CN 102699302A
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temperature
data
crystallizer
thermal resistance
breakout prediction
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CN102699302B (en
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赵杰
龙灏
张帆
岳洪亮
彭燕华
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Cisdi Electrical Technology Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a bleed-out forecasting system and a forecasting method of a slab continuous casting crystallizer. The bleed-out forecasting system comprises a PLC (Programmable Logic Controller) controller, a computer terminal, a plurality of temperature measurement thermal resistors installed on the copper plate wall of the crystallizer, a digital conversion and correction device, a digital communication gateway controller and a switch. The specific forecasting steps are as follows: (1) collecting temperature data, casting speed, liquid level, throwing length and friction force data in the crystallizer, and sending the data to the computer terminal; (2) converting the temperature data into a digital signal and performing compensation calculation; and (3) sending the digital signal to the computer terminal, and the computer terminal calculates the received data and performs bleed-out forecasting judgment. The forecasting system provided by the invention collects the temperature data through the temperature measurement thermal resistors and compensates and corrects the temperature to guarantee high measured temperature value accuracy and reduce the cost. The forecasting method provided by the invention can be used for performing comprehensive judgment through an expert system, a neural network algorithm and friction force analysis, so that the wrong forecasting rate is low and the forecasting rate is high.

Description

A kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction system and forecasting procedure thereof
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of conticaster crystallizer technical field of automatic control, particularly a kind of breakout prediction system and forecasting procedure.
Background technology
Bleed-out accident in the slab caster production process can influence manufacturing schedule and cause device damage, is essential so be directed against the software of forecasting of bleed-out.In the prior art, the bleed-out accident of crystallizer is forecast that following several kinds of ways are arranged usually:
1) breakout prediction of logic-based judgement: in CN101332499, disclose the patent of invention that a kind of name is called " a kind of sheet billet continuous casting breakout prediction control method ", be specially in the sheet billet continuous casting process and prevent the method that bonding steel leakage takes place according to crystallizer resistance and temperature situation of change.Technical scheme is: a kind of sheet billet continuous casting breakout prediction control method; On crystallizer, settle many heat extractions resistance; It is characterized in that may further comprise the steps: A. in the installation site of crystallizer, confirms the representative temperature characteristic of each thermal resistance according to crystallizer parameter, thermal resistance; B. according to the representative temperature characteristic of adjacent heat resistance, consider transmission of bleed-out temperature and temperature anomaly distribution characteristics simultaneously, confirm each thermal resistance bleed-out probability; C. when system prediction arrives sticker type breakout, stop casting.The method is common breakout prediction logic judging method, and its weak point is exactly that the key character parameter during bonding steel leakage can change gradually along with ageing equipment and material are changed, and the breakout prediction judgement will be more and more inaccurate so.
2) breakout prediction of judging based on neutral net: in CN201791938U, disclose the patent that a kind of name is called " a kind of continuous cast mold breakout prediction system "; On vibrating motor, be connected with current sensor; Add the breakout prediction model among the crystallizer PLC; Current sensor and the communication of crystallizer PLC breakout prediction model, crystallizer PLC also is connected with man-machine interface.Breakout prediction model in the crystallizer PLC through database maintenance module classified finishing and model data library searching, is learnt the motor real-time current signal of collecting and data base optimization by neural network module again.Simultaneously, genetic algorithm module compares, judges, and the result is presented at man-machine interface, to then reporting to the police and record of overshoot.The problem of this system is; Be that neutral net or genetic algorithm model all will be based upon on the basis of a large amount of very desirable data sample storehouse training parameters; In model drops into a very long time at initial stage; On-the-spot data imperfection, when training sample is inadequate, the accuracy rate of breakout prediction can be much lower.
3) breakout prediction that detects based on resistance of billet withdrawal: in CN1793837, disclose the patent that a kind of name is called " drawing resistance to mould detects new method and checkout gear ", solving in the prior art resistance of billet withdrawal can not be directly, the accurate problem of detection.This method is according to concrete system initial parameter value, and power of motor P when detecting throwing utilizes the relational expression of drawing resistance to mould F and power, records resistance F.Checkout gear comprises: AC current sensor, active power sensor, and the active power sensor imports the power signal that detects into microcomputer detecting system through analog-digital converter, and microcomputer detecting system connects preset parameter device and output equipment simultaneously.The problem of this system is that in continuous casting production process, working condition badly can cause the fault of various sensors, and the rate of coming into operation of system can be lowered, and therefore can can't reach the high rate of quoting.
Therefore; Need be applicable to the complete set of equipments of the production environment that continuous casting is abominable; And thereby software systems can not only combine the method for expertise and neutral net adaptive judgement to remedy the deficiency of the other side's algorithm; Can consider again except that based on other breakout prediction predicting means such as frictional force analysis the thermal resistance thermometric, thereby reach the high operation ratio of breakout prediction system, height is quoted the purpose of rate and low rate of false alarm.
Summary of the invention
One object of the present invention just provides a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction system, and its forecast degree of accuracy is high, has significantly reduced manufacturing cost.
The objective of the invention is to realize through such technical scheme; It includes PLC controller and terminal; Said system also includes a plurality of thermometric thermal resistance, digital translation and corrector, digital communication gateway controller and switches that are installed on the crystallizer copper wooden partition; The thermometric thermal resistance is sent to digital translation and corrector with the temperature data that measures; Digital translation and corrector convert the temperature data signal that receives data signal into and temperature value are compensated calculating, and the data after digital translation and corrector processing are transferred to interchanger through the digital communication gateway controller, are resent to terminal; The resulting data of PLC controller transfer to terminal through switch, and terminal calculates and makes breakout prediction to the data that receive and judges.
Further, a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction as claimed in claim 1 system, it is characterized in that: the resulting data of said PLC controller include pulling rate, liquid level, throwing length and frictional force.
Further; A kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction as claimed in claim 1 system, it is characterized in that: said thermometric thermal resistance is a correction type high-precision temperature meter, and the installation method on the crystallizer steel plate does; Wide triplex row m row are installed; Leptoprosopy is installed two row n row, m >=width of plate slab/column pitch-1 wherein, n >=slab thickness/column pitch-1; The interval of wide row and row is less than 180 millimeters, and the distance between row and the row is less than 150 millimeters, leptoprosopy capable with row between distance less than 150 millimeters, be listed as and column pitch less than 200 millimeters.
Further; A kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction as claimed in claim 1 system; It is characterized in that: said digital translation and corrector include temperature signal detection module, data-converting block and backoff algorithm module; The temperature signal detection module detects the temperature data of thermometric thermal resistance, changes and compensates calculating through the backoff algorithm module through data-converting block; It is the protective housing that prevents that dust and steam from getting into that said digital translation and corrector also include degree of protection, on the protection tank wall, cooling water pipe is installed.
Another object of the present invention just provides a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction method, and it judges comprehensively that through expert system, neural network algorithm and frictional force analysis rate of false alarm is low, quotes the rate height.
The objective of the invention is to realize, forecast that specifically step is following through such technical scheme:
1) the thermometric thermal resistance is gathered temperature data in the crystallizer, and simultaneously, the PLC controller is gathered pulling rate, liquid level, throwing length and the frictional force data in the crystallizer, and the PLC controller is sent to terminal with the data that collect;
2) measure the temperature data that thermal resistance collects and convert data signal into, and carry out the compensating gage calculation through digital translation and corrector;
3) with step 2) in the data signal of gained be sent to terminal, terminal calculates the data that receive and carries out breakout prediction and judge.
Further, it is following that concrete grammar is calculated in the compensation step 2):
According to formula Yt=tg-T accounting temperature correction value Yt, the measured temperature values that tg records for the thermometric thermal resistance in the formula, Yt is the precision desired value, from the branch kilsyth basalt of the international temperature scale ITS-90 that announces; After the deviation of identification measured temperature values tg in all temperature provinces; Revise and obtain measured temperature values is close to international temperature scale temperature true value T when temperature is t ℃ calculating true value Tx pointedly; After actual measured results value and international temperature scale contrasted; Through calculating error is partly revised elimination, temperature value is compensated.
Further, in the step 3) terminal data of receiving are calculated and the concrete grammar of breakout prediction following:
3-1) terminal carries out preliminary treatment to the temperature data that receives;
3-2) through step 3-1) temperature data after handling calculates with expert system through neutral net respectively and calculates, and judges whether to bond, if bond, then turns to step 3-3), if the generation then end that bonds;
3-3) step 3-2) judged result combines crystallizer frictional force analysis and judgement, determines whether to bond, if, then send breakout prediction, if not, then finish.
Further, the neutral net computational methods are step 3-2):
Neural network algorithm mainly calculates the bleed-out probability of the corresponding crystallizer copper Board position of every row thermal resistance through the BP neutral net; Certain is listed as adjacent 2 thermal resistances as one group of thermal resistance; Gather continuous 15 seconds resistance and temperature data, after temperature data normalization is calculated, as the input parameter of BP neutral net; Through the calculating of BP neutral net, whether output item the probability of bleed-out can take place for this group thermal resistance.
Further, the expert system computational methods are step 3-2):
Analyze the BP neutral net and calculate certain and be listed as the temperature trend of adjacent 2 thermal resistances in a period of time, with bleed-out characteristic value in the expert database relatively, characteristic parameter relatively includes:
(a) whether the temperature gap that records of thermal resistance and same column, the adjacent heat of going together resistance is greater than threshold value a;
(b) whether the average temperature rising that in nearest 200 seconds, records of thermal resistance is greater than threshold value b;
(c) whether the average temperature rising that in nearest 30 seconds, records of thermal resistance is greater than threshold value c;
(d) whether the rate of temperature change that records of adjacent two thermal resistances is greater than threshold value d;
Whether the temperature rise that heat extraction resistance records (e) is greater than threshold value e;
(f) down whether the temperature that records of heat extraction resistance is higher than number of times that heat extraction resistance records temperature above certain value f.
Further; Step 3-3) frictional force of crystallizer described in analysis and judgement method is: the frictional force parser mainly changes with the trend of exerting oneself through the frictional force of analyzing hydraulic pressure vibration condition left and right sides cylinder down calculates the bleed-out probability: system gathers left and right sides cylinder frictional force increases in a period of time amplitude, left and right sides cylinder the exert oneself amplitude of increase, the amplitude that left and right sides cylinder frictional force reduces, the amplitude that left and right sides cylinder is exerted oneself and reduced in real time; If these amplitudes have surpassed standard value, then this algorithm is exported result of calculation 1.
Owing to adopted technique scheme, the present invention to have following advantage:
The hardware and software of forecast system according to the invention constitutes the slab caster that is applicable to a machine multithread; Through thermometric thermal resistance collecting temperature data; And carry out the temperature-compensating correction through digital translation and corrector; Make the temperature value degree of accuracy that records high, but also left out the remote I design of conventional breakout prediction system, reduced cost.Forecasting procedure according to the invention judges comprehensively that through expert system, neural network algorithm and frictional force analysis rate of false alarm is low, quotes the rate height.
Other advantages of the present invention, target and characteristic will be set forth in specification subsequently to a certain extent; And to a certain extent; Based on being conspicuous to those skilled in the art, perhaps can from practice of the present invention, obtain instruction to investigating of hereinafter.Target of the present invention and other advantages can realize and obtain through following specification and claims.
Description of drawings
Description of drawings of the present invention is following.
Fig. 1 is the structural representation of system according to the invention;
Fig. 2 is the forecast flow chart of the method for the invention;
Fig. 3 is frictional force analysis process figure;
Fig. 4 is a frictional force parameter training flow chart;
Fig. 5 is the characteristic value self study flow chart of breakout prediction system;
Fig. 6 fair curve and nonstandard temperature value concern sketch map.
The specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment the present invention is described further.
A kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction system; Include PLC controller and terminal; Said system also includes a plurality of thermometric thermal resistance, digital translation and corrector, digital communication gateway controller and switches that are installed on the crystallizer copper wooden partition; The thermometric thermal resistance is sent to digital translation and corrector with the temperature data that measures; Digital translation and corrector convert the temperature data signal that receives data signal into and temperature value are compensated calculating, and the data after digital translation and corrector processing are transferred to interchanger through the digital communication gateway controller, are resent to terminal; The resulting data of PLC controller transfer to terminal through switch, and terminal calculates and makes breakout prediction to the data that receive and judges.
The hardware and software of forecast system according to the invention constitutes the slab caster that is applicable to a machine multithread; One cover forecast system is applicable to a plurality of slab casters; Pass through thermometric thermal resistance collecting temperature data, and carry out the temperature-compensating correction, make the temperature value degree of accuracy that records high through digital translation and corrector; But also the remote I design of having left out conventional breakout prediction system has reduced cost.
The resulting data of said PLC controller include pulling rate, liquid level, throwing length and frictional force.
Said thermometric thermal resistance is a correction type high-precision temperature meter, and the installation method on the crystallizer steel plate does, wide triplex row m row is installed, and leptoprosopy is installed two row n row, m >=width of plate slab/column pitch-1 wherein, n >=slab thickness/column pitch-1; The interval of wide row and row is less than 180 millimeters, and the distance between row and the row is less than 150 millimeters, leptoprosopy capable with row between distance less than 150 millimeters, be listed as and column pitch less than 200 millimeters.
Said digital translation and corrector include temperature signal detection module, data-converting block and backoff algorithm module; The temperature signal detection module detects the temperature data of thermometric thermal resistance, changes and compensates calculating through the backoff algorithm module through data-converting block; It is the protective housing that prevents that dust and steam from getting into that said digital translation and corrector also include degree of protection, on the protection tank wall, cooling water pipe is installed.
The thermometric thermal resistance of installing on the crystallizer copper wooden partition is installed triplex row 11 row for wide, and leptoprosopy is installed two row, two row.Terminal can corresponding two stream casters, accomplish data interaction, the data of single current or multithread continuous casting through configuration PLC signals collecting software and crystallizer breakout prediction application software and preserve and the man-machine interface demonstration.Breakout prediction is the algorithm of analyzing based on BP neutral net, expert system and frictional force.Sticker type breakout forecast alarm signal is sent in the judgement that comprehensive BP neutral net, expert system and frictional force are analyzed.The present invention has overcome the limitation of single investigation resistance and temperature rate of change in the past, thereby has further improved the forecast accuracy to sticker type breakout.At operating room and continuous casting platform acoustic-optic alarm has been installed all, when detecting bleed-out trend, warning device sends signal at once.In addition, if also can breakout prediction take place through interface setting at terminal, the control strategy of pulling rate fall: promptly set and whether fall pulling rate automatically, fall pulling rate to what with fall the rate of change of pulling rate.System also has the parameter adaptive function in cycle, can through reading historical data, analyze the characteristic ginseng value of sticker type breakout, thereby the parameter of breakout prediction model is carried out self study at a distance from the time of some cycles.In addition, characteristic ginseng value can also directly be set in text.
A kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction method is characterized in that concrete steps are following:
1) the thermometric thermal resistance is gathered temperature data in the crystallizer, and simultaneously, the PLC controller is gathered pulling rate, liquid level, throwing length and the frictional force data in the crystallizer, and the PLC controller is sent to terminal with the data that collect;
2) measure the temperature data that thermal resistance collects and convert data signal into, and carry out the compensating gage calculation through digital translation and corrector;
3) with step 2) in the data signal of gained be sent to terminal, terminal calculates the data that receive and carries out breakout prediction and judge.
Step 2) it is following that concrete grammar is calculated in the compensation described in:
As shown in Figure 6, according to formula Yt=tg-T accounting temperature correction value Yt, the measured temperature values that tg records for the thermometric thermal resistance in the formula, Yt is the precision desired value, from the branch kilsyth basalt of the international temperature scale ITS-90 that announces; After the deviation of identification measured temperature values tg in all temperature provinces; Revise and obtain measured temperature values is close to international temperature scale temperature true value T when temperature is t ℃ calculating true value Tx pointedly; After actual measured results value and international temperature scale contrasted; Through calculating error is partly revised elimination, temperature value is compensated.
In the step 3) terminal data of receiving are calculated and the concrete grammar of breakout prediction following:
3-1) terminal carries out preliminary treatment to the temperature data that receives;
3-2) through step 3-1) temperature data after handling calculates with expert system through neutral net respectively and calculates, and judges whether to bond, if bond, then turns to step 3-3), if the generation then end that bonds;
3-3) step 3-2) judged result combines crystallizer frictional force analysis and judgement, determines whether to bond, if, then send breakout prediction, if not, then finish.
Step 3-2) computational methods of neutral net described in are:
Neural network algorithm mainly calculates the bleed-out probability of the corresponding crystallizer copper Board position of every row thermal resistance through the BP neutral net; Certain is listed as adjacent 2 thermal resistances as one group of thermal resistance; Gather continuous 15 seconds resistance and temperature data, after temperature data normalization is calculated, as the input parameter of BP neutral net; Through the calculating of BP neutral net, whether output item the probability of bleed-out can take place for this group thermal resistance.
Step 3-2) computational methods of expert system described in are:
Analyze the BP neutral net and calculate certain and be listed as the temperature trend of adjacent 2 thermal resistances in a period of time, with bleed-out characteristic value in the expert database relatively, characteristic parameter relatively includes:
(a) whether the temperature gap that records of thermal resistance and same column, the adjacent heat of going together resistance is greater than threshold value a;
(b) whether the average temperature rising that in nearest 200 seconds, records of thermal resistance is greater than threshold value b;
(c) whether the average temperature rising that in nearest 30 seconds, records of thermal resistance is greater than threshold value c;
(d) whether the rate of temperature change that records of adjacent two thermal resistances is greater than threshold value d;
Whether the temperature rise that heat extraction resistance records (e) is greater than threshold value e;
(f) down whether the temperature that records of heat extraction resistance is higher than number of times that heat extraction resistance records temperature above certain value f.
Step 3-3) frictional force of crystallizer described in analysis and judgement method is: the frictional force parser mainly changes with the trend of exerting oneself through the frictional force of analyzing hydraulic pressure vibration condition left and right sides cylinder down calculates the bleed-out probability: system gathers left and right sides cylinder frictional force increases in a period of time amplitude, left and right sides cylinder the exert oneself amplitude of increase, the amplitude that left and right sides cylinder frictional force reduces, the amplitude that left and right sides cylinder is exerted oneself and reduced in real time; If these amplitudes have surpassed standard value, then this algorithm is exported result of calculation 1.
Explanation is at last; Above embodiment is only unrestricted in order to technical scheme of the present invention to be described; Although with reference to preferred embodiment the present invention is specified, those of ordinary skill in the art should be appreciated that and can make amendment or be equal to replacement technical scheme of the present invention; And not breaking away from the aim and the scope of present technique scheme, it all should be encompassed in the middle of the claim scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction system; Include PLC controller and terminal; It is characterized in that: said system also includes a plurality of thermometric thermal resistance, digital translation and corrector, digital communication gateway controller and switches that are installed on the crystallizer copper wooden partition; The thermometric thermal resistance is sent to digital translation and corrector with the temperature data that measures; Digital translation and corrector convert the temperature data signal that receives data signal into and temperature value are compensated calculating, and the data after digital translation and corrector processing are transferred to interchanger through the digital communication gateway controller, are resent to terminal; The resulting data of PLC controller transfer to terminal through switch, and terminal calculates and makes breakout prediction to the data that receive and judges.
2. a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction as claimed in claim 1 system, it is characterized in that: the resulting data of said PLC controller include pulling rate, liquid level, throwing length and frictional force.
3. a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction as claimed in claim 1 system; It is characterized in that: said thermometric thermal resistance is a correction type high-precision temperature meter; Installation method on the crystallizer steel plate is wide triplex row m row to be installed, leptoprosopy installation two row n row; M >=width of plate slab/column pitch-1 wherein, n >=slab thickness/column pitch-1; The interval of wide row and row is less than 180 millimeters, and the distance between row and the row is less than 150 millimeters, leptoprosopy capable with row between distance less than 150 millimeters, be listed as and column pitch less than 200 millimeters.
4. a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction as claimed in claim 1 system; It is characterized in that: said digital translation and corrector include temperature signal detection module, data-converting block and backoff algorithm module; The temperature signal detection module detects the temperature data of thermometric thermal resistance, changes and compensates calculating through the backoff algorithm module through data-converting block; It is the protective housing that prevents that dust and steam from getting into that said digital translation and corrector also include degree of protection, on the protection tank wall, cooling water pipe is installed.
5. carry out the method for breakout prediction like any described continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction system of claim 1 to 4, it is characterized in that, forecast that specifically step is following:
1) the thermometric thermal resistance is gathered temperature data in the crystallizer, and simultaneously, the PLC controller is gathered pulling rate, liquid level, throwing length and the frictional force data in the crystallizer, and the PLC controller is sent to terminal with the data that collect;
2) measure the temperature data that thermal resistance collects and convert data signal into, and carry out the compensating gage calculation through digital translation and corrector;
3) with step 2) in the data signal of gained be sent to terminal, terminal calculates the data that receive and carries out breakout prediction and judge.
6. a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that step 2) described in compensation to calculate concrete grammar following:
According to formula Yt=tg-T accounting temperature correction value Yt, the measured temperature values that tg records for the thermometric thermal resistance in the formula, Yt is the precision desired value, from the branch kilsyth basalt of the international temperature scale ITS-90 that announces; After the deviation of identification measured temperature values tg in all temperature provinces; Revise and obtain measured temperature values is close to international temperature scale temperature true value T when temperature is t ℃ calculating true value Tx pointedly; After actual measured results value and international temperature scale contrasted; Through calculating error is partly revised elimination, temperature value is compensated.
7. a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, that the data of receiving are carried out the concrete grammar that breakout prediction calculates is following for terminal in the step 3):
3-1) terminal carries out preliminary treatment to the temperature data that receives;
3-2) through step 3-1) temperature data after handling calculates with expert system through neutral net respectively and calculates, and judges whether to bond, if bond, then turns to step 3-3), if the generation then end that bonds;
3-3) step 3-2) judged result combines crystallizer frictional force analysis and judgement, determines whether to bond, if, then send breakout prediction, if not, then finish.
8. a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction method as claimed in claim 7 is characterized in that step 3-2) described in the neutral net computational methods be:
Neural network algorithm mainly calculates the bleed-out probability of the corresponding crystallizer copper Board position of every row thermal resistance through the BP neutral net; Certain is listed as adjacent 2 thermal resistances as one group of thermal resistance; Gather continuous 15 seconds resistance and temperature data, after temperature data normalization is calculated, as the input parameter of BP neutral net; Through the calculating of BP neutral net, whether output item the probability of bleed-out can take place for this group thermal resistance.
9. a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction method as claimed in claim 8 is characterized in that step 3-2) described in the expert system computational methods be:
Analyze the BP neutral net and calculate certain and be listed as the temperature trend of adjacent 2 thermal resistances in a period of time, with bleed-out characteristic value in the expert database relatively, characteristic parameter relatively includes:
(a) whether the temperature gap that records of thermal resistance and same column, the adjacent heat of going together resistance is greater than threshold value a;
(b) whether the average temperature rising that in nearest 200 seconds, records of thermal resistance is greater than threshold value b;
(c) whether the average temperature rising that in nearest 30 seconds, records of thermal resistance is greater than threshold value c;
(d) whether the rate of temperature change that records of adjacent two thermal resistances is greater than threshold value d;
Whether the temperature rise that heat extraction resistance records (e) is greater than threshold value e;
(f) down whether the temperature that records of heat extraction resistance is higher than number of times that heat extraction resistance records temperature above certain value f.
10. a kind of continuous casting crystallizer for plate billet breakout prediction method as claimed in claim 7; It is characterized in that; Step 3-3) frictional force of crystallizer described in analysis and judgement method is: the frictional force parser mainly changes with the trend of exerting oneself through the frictional force of analyzing hydraulic pressure vibration condition left and right sides cylinder down calculates the bleed-out probability: system gathers left and right sides cylinder frictional force increases in a period of time amplitude, left and right sides cylinder the exert oneself amplitude of increase, the amplitude that left and right sides cylinder frictional force reduces, the amplitude that left and right sides cylinder is exerted oneself and reduced in real time; If these amplitudes have surpassed standard value, then this algorithm is exported result of calculation 1.
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