CN102437573A - Evaluation and control method and system for reliability of electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling - Google Patents

Evaluation and control method and system for reliability of electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling Download PDF

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CN102437573A
CN102437573A CN2011104502111A CN201110450211A CN102437573A CN 102437573 A CN102437573 A CN 102437573A CN 2011104502111 A CN2011104502111 A CN 2011104502111A CN 201110450211 A CN201110450211 A CN 201110450211A CN 102437573 A CN102437573 A CN 102437573A
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distribution network
power distribution
supply circuit
current supply
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CN102437573B (en
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康文韬
刘莎
李锐
黄志伟
刘文山
冯悦波
王艳杰
金义雄
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Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau Co Ltd
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Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau guangdong Grid Co ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides an evaluation and control method and system for reliability of an electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling. In the invention, by analyzing fuzzy modeling for reliability prediction and evaluation of the planned electric distribution network, the electric distribution network to be subject to reliability prediction and evaluation is simplified; and prediction and evaluation analysis is carried out on power supply reliability of the electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling of the electric distribution network so as to more accurately and quantificationally analyze impact of various construction and transformation projects of the electric distribution network and various technologies and measures on the reliability level of the planned electric distribution network and to evaluate and predict more reasonable power supply reliability indexes, so that optimum control can be carried out on the power supply reliability indexes in the planning year. Therefore, by adopting the technical scheme, the operating reliability and power quality of the electric distribution network as well as economic benefit of the system can be improved.

Description

Evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method and system thereof based on obscurity model building
Technical field
The present invention relates to the reliability index technical field of optimizing of power distribution network, relate in particular to a kind of evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building, and a kind of evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building.
Background technology
Along with modern society's rapid development of economy, the extensive of high-tech product and advanced IT application equipment popularized, and the output value of the every degree electricity of user rises day by day, and the unit power failure is measured to the user increasing with the social economic loss that causes.Therefore, the user is also increasingly high to the requirement of power supply reliability, to the research and the application of power system reliability, is to guarantee power supply quality, realizes the modern important means of power industry.When carrying out power system reliability research; Because planning back power distribution network has the probabilistic characteristics of network topology structure or excessive owing to setting up the required labor workload of detailed network topology structure, the workload of power distribution network to be assessed being carried out the reliability prediction assessment will be very big.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem that the present invention will solve is to provide a kind of can realize that power distribution network power supply reliability index analyzes automatically through computer technology, simplifies the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building of analysis of Reliability process.
Said evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building comprises:
Obtain the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, set up the fuzzy power distribution network model equivalent with said power distribution network according to said characterisitic parameter;
Obtain the equipment fault historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carry out power distribution network equipment fault data obscurity model building, ask for power distribution network facility planning year failure-rate data according to said fuzzy power distribution network model;
Obtain the planned outage historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carry out power distribution network facilities plan outage data obscurity model building, ask for power distribution network facility planning yearly plan outage rate data according to said fuzzy power distribution network model;
Said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out loop search, obtain each transformer station or the reliability index of each power supply zone in the said fuzzy power distribution network model, calculate the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
Said power distribution network is planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year according to the whole network reliability index of said power distribution network.
The technical problem that the present invention will solve also is to provide a kind of can realize that power distribution network power supply reliability index analyzes automatically through computer technology, simplifies the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building of analysis of Reliability process.
Said evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building comprises: power distribution network model maintenance module, be used to obtain the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, and set up the fuzzy power distribution network model with said power distribution network equivalence according to said characterisitic parameter; The fault data MBM is used to obtain the equipment fault historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carries out power distribution network equipment fault data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model, asks for power distribution network facility planning year failure-rate data; Planned outage data modeling module is used to obtain the planned outage historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carries out power distribution network facilities plan outage data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model, asks for power distribution network facility planning yearly plan outage rate data; The reliability index computing module is used for said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out loop search, obtains each transformer station or the reliability index of each power supply zone in the said fuzzy power distribution network model, calculates the whole network reliability index of power distribution network; Control module is used for according to the whole network reliability index of said power distribution network said power distribution network being planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year.
Compared with prior art, evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method and system thereof based on obscurity model building of the present invention, through the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, the equivalent fuzzy power distribution network model of power distribution network of setting up and wait to test and assess.And according to said fuzzy power distribution network model and historical equipment fault statistics and planned outage statistics; Carry out the obscurity model building of equipment fault data and planned outage data; Ask for power distribution network facility planning year failure-rate data and planned outage rate data, thus to power distribution network planning year the whole network reliability index; Said the whole network reliability index obtains through said fuzzy power distribution network model being carried out the loop search, according to said the whole network reliability index said power distribution network is planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year at last.
The present invention is through analyzing the obscurity model building of planning back distribution network reliability forecast assessment; Power distribution network to pending reliability prediction assessment carries out abbreviation; Based on the power distribution network obscurity model building power supply reliability of power distribution network is carried out the forecast assessment analysis; Make every effort to the influence that quantitative analysis comparatively exactly goes out various power distribution network construction, transformation and various technology, the control measures distribution network reliability level after to planning, evaluation prediction goes out comparatively reasonably power supply reliability index, with these power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control of planning year; Improve the power distribution network reliability of operation and the quality of power supply, improve the economic benefit of system.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet that the present invention is based on the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method of obscurity model building;
Fig. 2 is the major loop of power distribution network and the sketch map of sub-loop;
Fig. 3 is the structural representation that the present invention is based on the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system of obscurity model building.
Embodiment
See also Fig. 1, Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet that the present invention is based on the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method of obscurity model building.
Evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building of the present invention may further comprise the steps:
S1 obtains the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, sets up the fuzzy power distribution network model with said power distribution network equivalence according to said characterisitic parameter;
The characterisitic parameter of the said power distribution network that obtains in this step comprises: the cable average length of said power distribution network, overhead wire average length, insulating rate, the average block switch number of overhead wire, the average block switch number of cable, backbone load factor, single radiation main line ratio, the main line ratio of handing in hand, many tie trunks ratio, average every circuit distribution transformer platform number, distribution transformer average size, distribution transformer average load rate; Based on this, in the computer of control control centre, set up fuzzy power distribution network model with the above-mentioned each item power distribution network electrical network characterisitic parameter one to that obtains.
Carry out the fail-safe analysis of power distribution network with said fuzzy power distribution network model, can the distribution network reliability achievement data of complicacy be simplified.
S2 obtains the equipment fault historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carries out power distribution network equipment fault data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model, asks for power distribution network facility planning year failure-rate data;
In this step; The step of carrying out power distribution network equipment fault data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model comprises: the historical year failure-rate data with an operational outfit of said power distribution network is the basis; Utilize least squares equation
Figure BDA0000126475830000031
to ask for coefficient a, b, the c of corresponding equation; Wherein, T is history run year, and x is an equipment failure rate; Then the coefficient a that tries to achieve, b, c substitution equation
Figure BDA0000126475830000032
are asked for the planning equipment failure rate data in year.
Particularly, at first obtain the power distribution network to be assessed failure-rate data in certain device history year, suppose corresponding to t 1～t nThe historical year failure rate of year this equipment is x 1～x n, adopt the auto-adaptive time series model then, set up least squares equation x i = a + b t i + c t i 2 , Following equation group is arranged:
x 1 x 2 x 3 . . . x n T = a b c T 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 . . . 1 n n 2 T
Brief note is:
X T = a b c T A T
Wherein, a, b, c are undetermined coefficient, then
a b c T = X T A ( A T A ) - 1
Have: t N+1This equipment failure rate x in year N+1=a+b (n+1)+c (n+1) 2, last, obtain each rate of breakdown data of power distribution network to be assessed after the same method one by one.
S3 obtains the planned outage historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carries out power distribution network facilities plan outage data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model, asks for power distribution network facility planning yearly plan outage rate data;
In this step, the step of carrying out power distribution network facilities plan outage data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model comprises:
Be the basis with the planned outage rate in historical year of operational outfit of said power distribution network and plan capital quantity data; Utilize least squares equation
Figure BDA0000126475830000044
to ask for coefficient a, b, the c of corresponding equation; Wherein, P is plan capital quantity data, and y is the planned outage rate data;
With the coefficient a that tries to achieve, b, the plan capital quantity data in c substitution equation
Figure BDA0000126475830000045
combination planning year, calculate the planning facilities plan outage rate data in year then.
Particularly, at first obtain the planned outage rate and the plan capital quantity data in a certain device history year of power distribution network to be evaluated, suppose corresponding to t 1～t nThe planned outage rate in the device history year in year is y 1～y n, the plan capital quantity is p 1～p n, t N+1The plan capital quantity in year is p N+1, adopt self adaptation correlation analysis model then, set up least squares equation
y i = a + b p i + c p i 2 .
Following equation group is then arranged:
y 1 y 2 y 3 . . . y n T = a b c T 1 p 1 p 1 2 1 p 2 p 2 2 1 p 3 p 3 2 . . . 1 p n p n 2 T
Brief note is:
Y T = a b c T A T
Wherein, a, b, c are undetermined coefficient, then
a b c T = Y T A ( A T A ) - 1
Have: t N+1The facilities plan outage rate in year
Figure BDA0000126475830000055
At last, find the solution other facilities plan outage rates of power distribution network to be evaluated after the same method one by one.
S4 carries out loop search to said fuzzy power distribution network model, obtains each transformer station or the reliability index of each power supply zone in the said fuzzy power distribution network model, calculates the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
Wherein, said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out the loop search, comprise said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out main current supply circuit search and the search of sub-current supply circuit.Through said main current supply circuit search and the search of sub-current supply circuit, calculate the reliability index of said main current supply circuit and said sub-current supply circuit.Above-mentioned main current supply circuit search reliability index is calculated the calculating to the search of supply path between the upper level power supply and the comprehensive outage rate of corresponding this supply path, comprehensive year interruption duration of the mains side of having realized each power supply zone or distribution substation or distribution transformer.Above-mentioned sub-current supply circuit search reliability index calculate realized each electricity consumption user to or each power supply zone or distribution substation or distribution transformer between the calculating of supply path search and the comprehensive outage rate of corresponding this supply path, comprehensive year interruption duration.
The result of calculation of said reliability index is electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration.The computational methods of said electricity consumption user outage rate index are: the comprehensive outage rate of main current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of sub-current supply circuit and user's outage rate sum.The computational methods of said electricity consumption user year interruption duration index are: the comprehensive year interruption duration of main current supply circuit, the comprehensive year interruption duration of sub-current supply circuit and electricity consumption user year interruption duration sum.
Wherein, when calculating the reliability index of said main current supply circuit, rule below setting:
A1 is not if having block switch on the said main current supply circuit, then with the failure rate and the planned outage rate of each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit, in the comprehensive outage rate of the said main current supply circuit that adds up; And the said failure rate of each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit multiply by its fault correction time, add the above planned outage rate and multiply by its idle time, in the comprehensive year interruption duration of the said main current supply circuit that adds up;
A2 is if having block switch and interconnection switch on the said main current supply circuit, then with the failure rate of each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit, in the comprehensive outage rate of the said main current supply circuit that adds up; The outage rate of each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit multiply by the higher value in block switch operating time and interconnection switch back brake time, and the year of the said main current supply circuit that adds up is in the interruption duration;
A3 if on the said main current supply circuit block switch is arranged, but does not have interconnection switch, and then the failure rate with each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit adds planned outage rate, in the comprehensive outage rate of said main current supply circuit that adds up; Each power supply unit failure rate of said main current supply circuit multiply by fault correction time, and each power supply unit planned outage rate that adds the above main current supply circuit multiply by idle time, in year interruption duration of the said main current supply circuit that adds up.
When calculating the outage rate index of said sub-current supply circuit, rule below setting:
B1, if in the said sub-current supply circuit fuse is arranged, the comprehensive outage rate of then said sub-loop is 0;
B2, if having circuit breaker in the said sub-current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of then said sub-current supply circuit equals that each circuit breaker failure rate multiply by (1-P) on the said sub-current supply circuit kSum, wherein, P is that each circuit breaker on average reliably cut-offs rate in the said sub-current supply circuit, k is the number of circuit breaker on the said sub-current supply circuit;
B3, if in the said sub-current supply circuit isolating switch is arranged, then the comprehensive outage rate of said sub-current supply circuit is each fault isolating switch rate sum of said sub-current supply circuit;
B4, if no any equipment to be opened/closed in the said sub-current supply circuit, then the comprehensive outage rate of said sub-current supply circuit is 0.
Preferably, the priority of above-mentioned each operation rule is followed successively by calculation step b1, b2, b3 and b4 from high to low.
That is 4 rules that the comprehensive outage rate during above-mentioned sub-current supply circuit search reliability index is calculated calculates are calculated without full entry; The priority of above-mentioned 4 rules be by regular b1 to regular b4, then not computation rule b2, regular b3, regular b4 when promptly regular b1 satisfies or not regular b1 and when satisfying regular b2; Computation rule b3, regular b4 condition do not satisfy regular b1, regular b2, and when satisfying regular b3; Computation rule b4 not, computation rule 4 just at last.
Year in calculating the reliability index of said sub-current supply circuit is during the interruption duration index, rule below setting:
C1, if said sub-current supply circuit does not have block switch, comprehensive year interruption duration computation rule a1 is identical for comprehensive year interruption duration computational methods and main current supply circuit of then said sub-current supply circuit;
C2; If said sub-current supply circuit has block switch; Then no matter whether said sub-loop has available interconnection switch; The comprehensive outage rate of said sub-current supply circuit multiply by the block switch operating time of said sub-current supply circuit and the higher value in the power switch back brake time, and in year interruption duration of the said sub-current supply circuit that adds up.
S5 plans the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year to said power distribution network according to the whole network reliability index of said power distribution network.
In this step, user data along the line is synthesized, obtain the index of the whole network.
Above-mentioned the whole network reliability index comprises: system on average have a power failure Frequency Index SAIFI (inferior/family. year); The average interruption duration index S AIDI of system (hour/family. year); The average interruption duration index of user CAIDI (hour/the power failure family. inferior); Average power supply reliability index ASAI (%); The not enough index ENSI (MWh/) of electric weight that system is total; The not enough index AENS of average electricity (MWh/. the family); Loss of outage LOSS 7 evaluating reliability of distribution network indexs such as (ten thousand yuan/year) that system is total.
Above-mentioned system on average have a power failure Frequency Index SAIFI (inferior/family. year) computing formula is:
SAIFI = Σ i = 1 n λ i N i Σ i = 1 n N i
λ wherein iBe the year outage rate index of load bus i (being the electricity consumption user), N iNumber of users for load bus i.The average interruption duration index S of said system AIDI (hour/family. year) computing formula is:
SAIDI = Σ i = 1 n U i N i Σ i = 1 n N i
Wherein: U iBe the year interruption duration index of load bus i, N iNumber of users for load bus i.
The average interruption duration index of above-mentioned user CAIDI (hour/the power failure family. inferior) computing formula is:
CAIDI = Σ i = 1 n U i N i Σ i = 1 n λ i N i
Above-mentioned average power supply reliability index ASAI (%) computing formula is:
ASAI = Σ i = 1 n N i × 8760 - Σ i = 1 n U i N i Σ i = 1 n N i × 8760
Total not enough index ENSI (MWh/) computing formula of electric weight of said system is:
ENSI = Σ i = 1 n L ai U i
Wherein: L AiThe average load power of i load bus.
The not enough index AENS of above-mentioned average electricity (MWh/. the family) computing formula is:
AENS = Σ i = 1 n L ai U i Σ i = 1 n N i
Total loss of outage LOSS (ten thousand yuan/year) computing formula of said system is:
The average electricity price of LOSS=ENSI*
Power distribution network power supply reliability forecast assessment regulate and control method based on the power distribution network fuzzy Modeling Method of the present invention has improved the power distribution network reliability of operation and the quality of power supply.
The present invention is through analyzing the obscurity model building of planning back distribution network reliability forecast assessment; Power distribution network to pending reliability prediction assessment carries out abbreviation; Based on the power distribution network obscurity model building power supply reliability of power distribution network is carried out the forecast assessment analysis; Make every effort to the influence that quantitative analysis comparatively exactly goes out various power distribution network construction, transformation and various technology, the control measures distribution network reliability level after to planning, evaluation prediction goes out comparatively reasonably power supply reliability index, with these power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control of planning year; Improve the power distribution network reliability of operation and the quality of power supply, improve the economic benefit of system.
To combine specific embodiment that the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building of the present invention is done further to describe in detail below.
Suppose certain electrical network main line average length X1=3.5 (km/ bar), cable rate X2=92 (%), the average block switch of main line is counted X3=2.5 (platform); Average every backbone branches is X4=1 (bar), branch line average length X5=1.7 (km/ bar), single radiation main line ratio X6=10 (%); Cable, ratio built on stilts and blend are respectively 60%, 40% and 0% in single radiation wiring, hand in hand main line ratio X7=80 (%); Cable, ratio built on stilts and blend are respectively 90% in the wiring hand in hand; 5% and 5%, many tie trunks ratio X8=10 (%) gets in touch with cable in the wiring, ratio built on stilts and blend is respectively 90% more; 0% and 10%; Average every main line distribution transformer platform is counted X9=13 (platform/bar), and average every branch line distribution transformer platform is counted X10=6 (platform/bar) distribution transformer average size X11=400 (kVA/ platform), distribution transformer average load rate X12=58 (%).The cable model is YJV-300, and the overhead transmission line model is LGJ-185.
At first, step S11, according to above-mentioned electrical network characterisitic parameter, the fuzzy power distribution network computation model of the equivalence of foundation is: 100 10kV backbones; Article 6, cable is single radiation wiring, and 4 overhead wires are single radiation wiring, and 72 cables are wiring hand in hand, and 4 overhead wires are wiring hand in hand; Article 4, blend is wiring hand in hand, and 9 cables are many contact wiring, and 1 blend is many contact wiring, and backbone length is 3.5km; Article 50, line sectionalizing switch number is 2, and 50 line sectionalizing switch numbers are 3, and every main line is drawn a branch line; Branch line length 1.7km, the cable model is made as YJV-300, and the overhead transmission line model is made as LGJ-185.13 of 50% distribution transformers that main line is with; 14 of 50% distribution transformers that main line is with, every branch line is with 6 of distribution transformer parameters, and every station power distribution transformer capacity is 400kVA; Every distribution transforming institute on-load is 400*58%*0.95=220.4MW, and power factor gets 0.95.
S12 obtains on the power distribution network to be evaluated failure rate, outage rate, failure recovery time, the planned outage time of each electric equipment, the historical data of plan capital quantity.
S13; Utilize least square fitting to go out the historical data of the said failure rate of formula
Figure BDA0000126475830000101
, outage rate, failure recovery time, planned outage time, plan capital quantity then; Calculate a, b, c coefficient; The a that utilization is obtained; B, c coefficient and corresponding formula dope planning year rate of breakdown and outage rate; That is, utilize least square method to calculate failure rate, the outage rate of power distribution network to be evaluated at each electric equipment in planning year.
S14, and, need the failure recovery time and the planned outage time history annual data of each electric equipment for mean failure rate recovery time of each electric equipment on the power distribution network to be evaluated and the calculating of average planned outage time.Then, historical year failure recovery time, planned outage time according to formula
Figure BDA0000126475830000102
that is each electric equipment of said power distribution network to be evaluated, calculate a; B; The c coefficient, a of above-mentioned two formula, b; The c coefficient is different, representes that just symbol is identical.Utilize a obtain then, b, c coefficient and corresponding formula are obtained each electric equipment mean failure rate recovery time and average planned outage time.
S15 obtains each electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration based on the loop search method, comprises that main current supply circuit search and sub-current supply circuit search for the calculating of two parts.
As shown in Figure 2, on behalf of bus electric equipment, 16,15 represent the electric equipment of circuit breaker among Fig. 2, and 17 represent the power transmission line electric equipment, and heavy line is represented described major loop in the figure, and fine line is represented described sub-loop.When calculating, the calculating of said main current supply circuit search electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration comprises 3 computation rules, and result of calculation is comprehensive year interruption duration U of comprehensive outage rate ξ of main current supply circuit and main current supply circuit;
The calculating of comprehensive year interruption duration comprises two computation rules in the said sub-current supply circuit searching and computing, carries out rule judgment according to the network connection form of power distribution network to be evaluated, selects computation rule then.
S16 carries out the calculating of the whole network reliability index according to each electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration.
See also Fig. 3, Fig. 3 is the structural representation that the present invention is based on the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system of obscurity model building.
Said evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building comprises:
Power distribution network model maintenance module 31 is used to obtain the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, sets up the fuzzy power distribution network model with said power distribution network equivalence according to said characterisitic parameter;
Fault data MBM 31 is used to obtain the equipment fault historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carries out power distribution network equipment fault data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model, asks for power distribution network facility planning year failure-rate data;
Planned outage data modeling module 33 is used to obtain the planned outage historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carries out power distribution network facilities plan outage data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model, asks for power distribution network facility planning yearly plan outage rate data;
Reliability index computing module 34 is used for said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out loop search, obtains each transformer station or the reliability index of each power supply zone in the said fuzzy power distribution network model, calculates the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
Regulation and control module 35 is used for according to the whole network reliability index of said power distribution network said power distribution network being planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year.
Above-described embodiment of the present invention does not constitute the qualification to protection range of the present invention.Any modification of within spirit of the present invention and principle, being done, be equal to replacement and improvement etc., all should be included within the claim protection range of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building is characterized in that, may further comprise the steps:
Obtain the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, set up the fuzzy power distribution network model equivalent with said power distribution network according to said characterisitic parameter;
Obtain the equipment fault historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carry out power distribution network equipment fault data obscurity model building, ask for power distribution network facility planning year failure-rate data according to said fuzzy power distribution network model;
Obtain the planned outage historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carry out power distribution network facilities plan outage data obscurity model building, ask for power distribution network facility planning yearly plan outage rate data according to said fuzzy power distribution network model;
Said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out loop search, obtain each transformer station or the reliability index of each power supply zone in the said fuzzy power distribution network model, calculate the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
Said power distribution network is planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year according to the whole network reliability index of said power distribution network.
2. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 1; It is characterized in that the characterisitic parameter of the said power distribution network that obtains comprises: the cable average length of said power distribution network, overhead wire average length, insulating rate, the average block switch number of overhead wire, the average block switch number of cable, backbone load factor, single radiation main line ratio, the main line ratio of handing in hand, many tie trunks ratio, average every circuit distribution transformer platform number, distribution transformer average size, distribution transformer average load rate;
Foundation comprises with the step of the fuzzy power distribution network model of said power distribution network equivalence:
In the computer of control control centre, set up fuzzy power distribution network model with the above-mentioned each item power distribution network electrical network characterisitic parameter one to that obtains.
3. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, the step of carrying out power distribution network equipment fault data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model comprises:
Historical year failure-rate data with an operational outfit of said power distribution network is the basis; Utilize least squares equation
Figure FDA0000126475820000011
to ask for coefficient a, b, the c of corresponding equation; Wherein, T is history run year, and x is an equipment failure rate;
Then the coefficient a that tries to achieve, b, c substitution equation
Figure FDA0000126475820000012
are asked for the planning equipment failure rate data in year.
4. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, the step of carrying out power distribution network facilities plan outage data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model comprises:
Be the basis with the planned outage rate in historical year of operational outfit of said power distribution network and plan capital quantity data; Utilize least squares equation
Figure FDA0000126475820000021
to ask for coefficient a, b, the c of corresponding equation; Wherein, P is plan capital quantity data, and y is the planned outage rate data;
With the coefficient a that tries to achieve, b, the plan capital quantity data in c substitution equation
Figure FDA0000126475820000022
combination planning year, calculate the planning facilities plan outage rate data in year then.
5. like any described evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method in the claim 1 to 4 based on obscurity model building; It is characterized in that; Said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out loop search, and the step of obtaining the reliability index of each transformer station or each power supply zone in the said fuzzy power distribution network model comprises:
Said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out main current supply circuit search and the search of sub-current supply circuit, calculate the reliability index of said main current supply circuit and said sub-current supply circuit, wherein, said reliability index is electricity consumption user's outage rate and an interruption duration.
6. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, calculates the reliability index of said main current supply circuit according to following operation rule:
A1 is not if having block switch on the said main current supply circuit, then with the failure rate and the planned outage rate of each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit, in the comprehensive outage rate of the said main current supply circuit that adds up; And the said failure rate of each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit multiply by its fault correction time, add the above planned outage rate and multiply by its idle time, in the comprehensive year interruption duration of the said main current supply circuit that adds up;
A2 is if having block switch and interconnection switch on the said main current supply circuit, then with the failure rate of each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit, in the comprehensive outage rate of the said main current supply circuit that adds up; The outage rate of each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit multiply by the higher value in block switch operating time and interconnection switch back brake time, and the year of the said main current supply circuit that adds up is in the interruption duration;
A3 if on the said main current supply circuit block switch is arranged, but does not have interconnection switch, and then the failure rate with each power supply unit of said main current supply circuit adds planned outage rate, in the comprehensive outage rate of said main current supply circuit that adds up; Each power supply unit failure rate of said main current supply circuit multiply by fault correction time, and each power supply unit planned outage rate that adds the above main current supply circuit multiply by idle time, in year interruption duration of the said main current supply circuit that adds up.
7. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 6 is characterized in that, calculates the outage rate index in the reliability index of said sub-current supply circuit according to following operation rule:
B1, if in the said sub-current supply circuit fuse is arranged, the comprehensive outage rate of then said sub-loop is 0;
B2, if having circuit breaker in the said sub-current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of then said sub-current supply circuit equals that each circuit breaker failure rate multiply by (1-P) on the said sub-current supply circuit kSum, wherein, P is that each circuit breaker on average reliably cut-offs rate in the said sub-current supply circuit, k is the number of circuit breaker on the said sub-current supply circuit;
B3, if in the said sub-current supply circuit isolating switch is arranged, then the comprehensive outage rate of said sub-current supply circuit is each fault isolating switch rate sum of said sub-current supply circuit;
B4, if no any equipment to be opened/closed in the said sub-current supply circuit, then the comprehensive outage rate of said sub-current supply circuit is 0.
8. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 7 is characterized in that the priority of each said operation rule is followed successively by calculation step b1, b2, b3 and b4 from high to low.
9. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 7 is characterized in that, calculates the year interruption duration index in the reliability index of said sub-current supply circuit according to following operation rule:
C1, if said sub-current supply circuit does not have block switch, comprehensive year interruption duration computation rule a1 is identical for comprehensive year interruption duration computational methods and main current supply circuit of then said sub-current supply circuit;
C2; If said sub-current supply circuit has block switch; Then the comprehensive outage rate of said sub-current supply circuit multiply by the block switch operating time of said sub-current supply circuit and the higher value in the power switch back brake time, and in year interruption duration of the said sub-current supply circuit that adds up.
10. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building is characterized in that, comprising:
Power distribution network model maintenance module is used to obtain the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, sets up the fuzzy power distribution network model with said power distribution network equivalence according to said characterisitic parameter;
The fault data MBM is used to obtain the equipment fault historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carries out power distribution network equipment fault data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model, asks for power distribution network facility planning year failure-rate data;
Planned outage data modeling module is used to obtain the planned outage historical statistical data of said power distribution network, carries out power distribution network facilities plan outage data obscurity model building according to said fuzzy power distribution network model, asks for power distribution network facility planning yearly plan outage rate data;
The reliability index computing module is used for said fuzzy power distribution network model is carried out loop search, obtains each transformer station or the reliability index of each power supply zone in the said fuzzy power distribution network model, calculates the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
The regulation and control module is used for according to the whole network reliability index of said power distribution network said power distribution network being planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year.
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