CN102156804B - Demonstration method for reliability quantitative requirements of ground-to-ground missile - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a demonstration method for reliability quantitative requirements of a ground-to-ground missile, comprising the following steps of: 1, determining a reliability top-level parameter index of the ground-to-ground missile; 2, decomposing the reliability top-level parameter index of the ground-to-ground missile; 3, determining a reliability parameter threshold of the ground-to-ground missile; 4, balancing the reliability parameter index and the cost of the ground-to-ground missile; 5, analyzing the technical economic feasibility of the reliability parameter index of the ground-to-ground missile. The invention provides the demonstration method for reliability quantitative requirements of the ground-to-ground missile for determining the reliability parameter of the ground-to-ground missile, wherein the method is fit for our country national condition and strong in operability, and can guide the demonstration work of the reliability quantitative requirements of the ground-to-ground missile and improve the reliability of the ground-to-ground missile.

Description

Ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method

One, technical field

The invention provides a kind of ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method, belong to reliability engineering technical field.

Two, background technology

Ground-to-ground missile demonstration is take science and technology and the level of economic development as foundation, the system analysis and design process of carrying out as means take theory and the method for science.Ground-to-ground missile demonstration is the primary link in ground-to-ground missile evolution, is the basis of ground-to-ground missile development effort.Facts have proved, all demonstrations are sufficient, and it is more objective, with clearly defined objective that project is determined, institute's summary summing target is more reasonable, and the ground-to-ground missile success ratio developed is high, the cycle is short; Otherwise, prove inadequate project, or the slow development of ground-to-ground missile is not out, or can not effectively uses after developing, cause manpower financial capacity's significant wastage.Therefore, ground-to-ground missile demonstration in ground-to-ground missile development in consequence very.Wherein, ground-to-ground missile reliability requirement demonstration is the important component part of ground-to-ground missile demonstration, and ground-to-ground missile reliability quantitative requirement demonstration is most important ingredient in ground-to-ground missile reliability requirement demonstration.

Ground-to-ground missile reliability requirement demonstration, comprises quantitative requirement demonstration, qualitative requirement demonstration, job demonstration, and quantitative requirement demonstration comprises the selection of dependability parameter and determining of quantitative target.Reliability Work has been carried out in the development of ground-to-ground missile to a certain extent, and needs and feature according to oneself in demonstration have been selected dependability parameter, have proposed the desired value of each parameter.But also have as a whole certain defect, concept as imperfect in parameter, the parameter of carrying is indefinite, the feasibility deficiency of parameter etc., the shortage of proving in addition technology, means has also restricted reliability engineering carrying out in ground-to-ground missile development greatly.Because the engineering development of the relative weapon tradition of reliability engineering technology is more late, add traditional concept, pay attention to operational performance, do not pay attention to reliability performance, cause reliability demonstration to exist lack of standardization, unreasonable, the scientific poor problem of demonstration means.For the problems referred to above, the present invention study and provide a kind of and tallied with the national condition, the ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method of strong operability.

Three, summary of the invention

(1) object:

The object of this invention is to provide a kind of ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method, it is demand and the deficiencies in the prior art for the feature of ground-to-ground missile and reliability demonstration, on the basis of summing up experience, study from the program of demonstration, the formation of parameter system, the aspects such as optimization of determining, weigh of index, provide a kind of and tally with the national condition, the ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method of strong operability, instruct the reliability quantitative requirement demonstration work of ground-to-ground missile, and then improve the reliability level of ground-to-ground missile.

(2) technical scheme:

A kind of ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method of the present invention, take the essential information of ground-to-ground missile as prerequisite, these essential informations comprise project verification background and mission requirements, ground-to-ground missile basic condition, operational version, initial guarantee plan and guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad.

A kind of ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method of the present invention, its step is as follows:

Step 1, definitely guided missile reliability top layer parameter index: by analyzing the essential information of ground-to-ground missile and affecting the factor of ground-to-ground missile reliability level, ground-to-ground missile request for utilization is changed into the index of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter.This ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter refers to the dependability parameter that affects ground-to-ground missile usefulness that ground-to-ground missile ordering party proposes according to user demand, and it includes technical readiness, standby readiness and Mission Success rate.The index of technical readiness, standby readiness and Mission Success rate is determined and can be adopted one or several methods in modelling, operation simulation method, like product analogy method to determine according to ground-to-ground missile request for utilization and ground-to-ground missile architectural characteristic.

Step 2, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index decomposes over the ground: the decomposition of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter index can adopt one or several methods in numerical value decomposition method, average distribution system, proportionate allocation, scoring apportion design to decompose according to actual conditions.This step by the technical readiness of ground-to-ground missile, standby readiness and Mission Success rate decompose obtain ground-to-ground missile mean time between failures (MTBF), mean repair time (MTTR), on average ensure the index of delay time at stop (MLDT), launching reliability, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level, be the desired value of dependability parameter.

Step 3, definitely guided missile reliability parameter threshold value: the dependability parameter desired value obtaining according to step 2 adopts Du An (Duane) model guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely.

Step 4, guided missile reliability parameter index and expense are weighed over the ground: the present invention adopts analytical hierarchy process, the excellent order method of scheme and quality assessment method several ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme to be carried out to the trade-off analysis of index and expense, thereby determine optimum ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme.

Step 5, the technical and economic feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground: (1) first should grasp dependability parameter system and the desired value thereof that this ground-to-ground missile is put forward when the technical feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground, then adopts the method deployment analysis of engineering experience or like product analogy.(2) analyze one by one the impact of dependability parameter index on life cycle cost when the economic feasibility analysis of guided missile reliability parameter index, whether the dependability parameter index being proposed to determine can bear economically over the ground.If think ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index in technology or lack economically feasibility, need to re-start the operation of step 1 to step 5, until obtain satisfied result after step 5 is analyzed.

Wherein, described " essential information ", refers to that method of the present invention carries out on following essential information basis, and this essential information comprises having:

(1) project verification background and mission requirements information: be development project verification background and the mission mission bit stream for describing ground-to-ground missile;

(2) ground-to-ground missile basic condition information: for describing basic composition and the major function of ground-to-ground missile;

(3) operational version information: be to prefer definite operational version according to the mission requirements of ground-to-ground missile development or the use of its hypothesis, clear and definite concrete request for utilization, and draft in detail on this basis life profile, and to duty cycle, environmental stress and the time quantitative numerical value in various environment;

(4) initial guarantee plan: be for describing the basic maintenance of ground-to-ground missile, guarantee plan;

(5) guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad: refer to and carry out deep investigation and analytical work, understand and grasp the details of domestic and international ground-to-ground missile of the same type, after demonstration is analyzed, select similar ground-to-ground missile as a reference.

Wherein, in the technical readiness described in step 1, standby readiness and Mission Success rate: the reliability top layer parameter that is ground-to-ground missile.Technical readiness refers to be received after combat readiness order, and the ground-to-ground missile change system of stored condition requires in accordance with regulations the probability of completing technology preliminary work within the technology setup time of regulation.Standby readiness refers to that technology prepares intact ground-to-ground missile change system, has required in accordance with regulations the probability of standby preliminary work in the stand-by time of regulation.Mission Success rate refers to and enters the transmitting of ground-to-ground missile change system successful execution, the flight of launching site and ignite the probability of task.

Wherein, at the Index of the technical readiness described in step 1, standby readiness and Mission Success rate: be one or several in modelling, operation simulation method, like product analogy method.The concrete condition of these methods is as follows:

A) modelling: the method is determined reliability top layer parameter index by relationship model formula after referring to the value of determining other parameter in dependability parameter model.

B) operation simulation method: the method refers to according to the typical mission section of ground-to-ground missile and concrete request for utilization, be responsible for the personnel of this ground-to-ground missile system demonstration by the military, from the angle of ground-to-ground missile system effectiveness or fighting efficiency, provide can reflect these ground-to-ground missile mission requirements, require comprehensive war skill index that be correlated with, quantification or corresponding operational assessment model with reliability correlation parameter, according to the actual war fighting requirement to this ground-to-ground missile or its comprehensive war skill index request, by calculating and analyze the initial value that obtains dependability parameter requirement.

C) like product analogy method: the method refers to by the information data statistics to active service ground-to-ground missile, the level that the relevant parameter of analysis active service ground-to-ground missile reaches, thereby the dependability parameter index of definite ground-to-ground missile.

Concrete performance while adopting modelling, operation simulation method and like product analogy method to determine technical readiness, standby readiness and Mission Success rate is as follows:

(1) adopt modelling: this modelling refers to the computation model according to ground-to-ground missile target kill probability, calculate the war preparedness integrity of ground-to-ground missile and the product value of Mission Success, then adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success is decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value and Mission Success rate, finally adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness.The model that calculates the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success in the method is:

$P_1\×P_2=\frac{1-\sqrt[n]{1-W\left(n\right)}}{P_4}$

Wherein, P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂for Mission Success rate; P ₄for single-shot ground-to-ground missile target kill probability; W (n) launches to same target under identical conditions for n sends out ground-to-ground missile, has the probability of a target kill at least, i.e. the probability of ground-to-ground missile target kill; N is the number of sending out of ground-to-ground missile.

In modelling, obtain adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation by the product value P of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success after the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success ₁× P ₂be decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value P ₁with Mission Success rate P ₂.Average distribution system, scoring apportion design and the product value P of proportionate allocation to war preparedness integrity and Mission Success ₁× P ₂concrete performance while decomposition is as follows:

(a) adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to war preparedness integrity and Mission Success, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_1=P_2=\sqrt{P_1\×P_2}$

Wherein, P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂for Mission Success rate; P ₁× P ₂for the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success.

(b) adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is in the situation that data lack very much, by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, several factors that affect war preparedness integrity and Mission Success are marked, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition war preparedness integrity and Mission Success, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution.In this scoring apportion design method, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, work complexity, working time, environmental baseline.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$P_1={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}\×(P_1\×P_2))}^{0.5}$

$P_2={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}\×(P_1\×P_2))}^{0.5}$

In formula: ${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}},$ i＝1，2

Wherein, P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂for Mission Success rate; P ₁× P ₂the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success; ω ₁for the scoring gross score of war preparedness integrity desired value; ω ₂for the scoring gross score of Mission Success rate; ω _iit is the scoring gross score of i index; r _ijit is the score value of j influence factor of i index; I is i index; J is j influence factor.

(c) adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to war preparedness integrity and the shared ratio of Mission Success index, to the product value P of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success ₁× P ₂distribute, its apportion model is as follows:

P ₁＝a×(P ₁×P ₂)

P ₂＝(1-a)×(P ₁×P ₂)

Wherein, P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂for Mission Success rate; P ₁× P ₂the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success; A is the product value P of war preparedness integrity desired value at war preparedness integrity and Mission Success ₁× P ₂in shared ratio.

In modelling, obtain adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness after war preparedness integrity desired value.Concrete performance while adopting average distribution system, scoring apportion design and proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness is as follows:

(a) adopt average distribution system to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this average distribution system is that technical readiness and standby readiness are distributed to equal numerical value, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}=P_{\mathrm{wp}}=\sqrt{P_1}$

Wherein, P _tpit is technical readiness; P _wpit is standby readiness; P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value.

(b) adopt scoring apportion design to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this scoring apportion design is in the situation that data lack very much, several factor scorings to influence technique readiness rate and standby readiness by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, and score value is carried out to comprehensive analysis acquisition technical readiness and standby readiness relative ratio, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution.In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}\×P_1)}^{0.5}$

$P_{\mathrm{wp}}={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}\×P_1)}^{0.5}$

In formula: ${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}},$ i＝1，2

Wherein, P _tpit is technical readiness; P _wpit is standby readiness; P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; ω ₁for the scoring gross score of technical readiness; ω ₂for the scoring gross score of standby readiness; ω _iit is the scoring gross score of i index; r _ijit is the score value of j influence factor of i index; I is i index; J is j influence factor.

(c) adoption rate apportion design is decomposed war preparedness integrity desired value: this proportionate allocation is according to technical readiness and standby readiness shared ratio in war preparedness integrity desired value, war preparedness integrity desired value is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _tp＝a×P ₁

P _wp＝(1-a)×P ₁

Wherein, P _tpit is technical readiness; P _wpit is standby readiness; P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; A is technical readiness shared ratio in war preparedness integrity desired value.

(2) adopt operation simulation method: this operation simulation method is resisted emulation by operation, analyze ground-to-ground missile reliability level to the impact of fighting, draw the technical readiness, standby readiness and the Mission Success rate that meet operational need.

(3) adopt like product analogy method: this like product analogy method is by the information data statistics to active service ground-to-ground missile, the level that the relevant parameter of analysis active service ground-to-ground missile reaches, thereby technical readiness, standby readiness and the Mission Success rate of definite ground-to-ground missile.

Wherein, in the numerical value decomposition method described in step 2, average distribution system, proportionate allocation, scoring apportion design: be the method for ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter index being decomposed to the desired value of the dependability parameter that obtains panzer.The decomposition of technical readiness and standby readiness adopts numerical value decomposition method, and the decomposition of Mission Success rate adopts average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design.

(1) to be applied to the concrete performance of decomposition technique readiness rate and standby readiness as follows for numerical value decomposition method:

1) decomposition technique readiness rate: while adopting numerical value decomposition method decomposition technique readiness rate, its decomposition model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T}\×(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T})\×e^{-\frac{t_j}{\mathrm{MTBF}}}+(1-\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T}\×(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T})\×e^{-\frac{t_j}{\mathrm{MTBF}}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_d}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})$

Wherein, P _tpfor technical readiness; λ _zfor storage failure rate; T is storage period; t _jfor technology setup time; t _dthe time that can be used for carrying out maintenance job and delay in the technology preparatory stage for armament systems; MBTF is the mean time between failures; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT on average ensures the delay time at stop; E is natural logarithm.

The concrete implementation step of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

A) determine master data: this master data comprises the storage failure rate of ground-to-ground missile, storage period, technology setup time, armament systems can be used for carrying out time and the technical readiness (P of maintenance job and delay in the technology preparatory stage _tp);

B) scope and the change step of given mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR);

C) according to the model of technical readiness, for calculating P each different mean repair time (MTTR) _tp-MTBF curve;

The actual techniques readiness rate value of d) decomposing as required, calculates the P under different mean repair time (MTTR) _tpcorresponding point on-MTBF curve, obtains the combination of mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR) under certain technical readiness;

E) according to the domestic and international actual index situation of ground-to-ground missile, from the combination of different mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR), select one group as decomposition value.

2) decompose standby readiness: while adopting numerical value decomposition method to decompose standby readiness, its decomposition model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{wp}}=e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{T}t}\·e^{-\frac{t_w}{\mathrm{MTBF}}}+(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{T}t}\·e^{-\frac{t_w}{\mathrm{MTBF}}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_{\mathrm{wd}}}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})$

Wherein, P _wpfor standby readiness; λ _tfor standby crash rate; T is stand-by time; t _wfor standby setup time; t _wdfor armament systems allow the time of keeping in repair and waiting for when the standby; MTBF is the mean time between failures; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT on average ensures the delay time at stop; E is natural logarithm.

The concrete implementation step of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

A) determine master data: this master data comprises the standby crash rate of ground-to-ground missile, stand-by time, standby setup time, armament systems allow the time and the standby readiness (P that keep in repair and wait in the time of standby _wp);

B) scope and the change step of given mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR);

C) according to the model of standby readiness, for calculating P each different mean repair time (MTTR) _wp-MTBF curve;

The actual standby readiness value of d) decomposing as required, calculates the P under different mean repair time (MTTR) _wpcorresponding point on-MTBF curve, obtains the combination of mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR) under certain standby readiness;

E) according to the domestic and international actual index situation of ground-to-ground missile, from the combination of different mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR), select one group as decomposition value.

(2) to be applied to the concrete performance of task resolution success ratio as follows for average distribution system, proportionate allocation, scoring apportion design:

The decomposition model of Mission Success rate can be divided into four kinds of decomposition models according to the situation of ground-to-ground missile, and the concrete condition of these four kinds of models is as follows:

1) in the time that ground-to-ground missile thinks that can not keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level carries separately during at launching site, Mission Success rate and launching reliability, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level are relevant, and Mission Success rate decomposition model is in this case:

P _rc＝R _fs×R _fx×R _yb

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level.

Under this decomposition model, adopt average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design to divide the concrete performance of timing as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=R_{\mathrm{yb}}=\sqrt[3]{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level.

B. adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level shared ratio in task success ratio, and Mission Success rate is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

R _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

R _yb＝c×P _rc

a+b+c＝1

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level; A is launching reliability shared ratio in task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio; C ignites fiduciary level shared ratio in task success ratio.

C. adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, several factors that affect launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level to be marked, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution.In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[3]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _ibe i item index, index comprises launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level; ω _iit is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of indices; r _ijit is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is i item index, i=1,2,3; J is j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4.

2) in the time that ground-to-ground missile thinks that can not keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level does not carry separately during at launching site, Mission Success rate and launching reliability, flying reliability are relevant, and Mission Success rate decomposition model is in this case:

P _rc＝R _fs×R _fx

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability.

Under this decomposition model, adopt average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design to divide the concrete performance of timing as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to launching reliability and flying reliability, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=\sqrt{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability.

B. adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to launching reliability and flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio, and Mission Success rate is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

R _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

a+b＝1

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability; A is launching reliability shared ratio in task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio.

C. adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, several factors that affect launching reliability and flying reliability to be marked, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition launching reliability and flying reliability, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution.In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[2]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _ibe i item index, index comprises launching reliability and flying reliability; ω _iit is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of indices; r _ijit is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is i item index, i=1,2; J is j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4.

3) think during at launching site and can simply keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level while carrying separately to uphole equipment when ground-to-ground missile, Mission Success rate and transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level are relevant, and Mission Success rate decomposition model is in this case:

P _rc＝P _fs×R _fx×R _yb

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level.

Under this decomposition model, adopt average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design to divide the concrete performance of timing as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=R_{\mathrm{yb}}=\sqrt[3]{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level.

B. adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level shared ratio in task success ratio, and Mission Success rate is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

R _yb＝c×P _rc

a+b+c＝1

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level; A is transmitting readiness rate shared ratio in task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio; C ignites fiduciary level shared ratio in task success ratio.

C. adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is several factor scorings on impact transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution.In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[3]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _ibe i item index, index comprises transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level; ω _iit is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of indices; r _ijit is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is i item index, i=1,2,3; J is j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4.

4) think during at launching site and can simply keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level while not carrying separately to uphole equipment when ground-to-ground missile, Mission Success rate is relevant with transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability, and Mission Success rate decomposition model is in this case:

P _rc＝P _fs×R _fx

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability.

Under this decomposition model, adopt average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design to divide the concrete performance of timing as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=\sqrt{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability.

B. adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio, and Mission Success rate is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

a+b＝1

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability; A is transmitting readiness rate shared ratio in task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio.

C. adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is several factor scorings on impact transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution.In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[2]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _ibe i item index, index comprises transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability; ω _iit is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of indices; r _ijit is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is i item index, i=1,2; J is j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4.

At decomposition model 3), 4) in, what adopt that average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design divide that timing obtains is to launch readiness rate, need to convert launching reliability to by formula.Conversion formula is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fsd}}=R_{\mathrm{fsm}}\×[R_{\mathrm{fsd}}+(1-R_{\mathrm{fsd}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_{\mathrm{fd}}}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})]$

Wherein, P _fsdfor the transmitting readiness rate having distributed; R _fsmfor MISSILE LAUNCHING fiduciary level; R _fsdfor land equipment is at the launching reliability of launching site; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT is the average delay time at stop that ensures; t _fdthe time that can be used for maintenance and wait for while preparation for transmitting; E is natural logarithm.

Wherein, the desired value described in step 2: refer to and expect the service index that reaches of equipment, it can meet the user demand of equipment, can make again equipment reach best efficiency-cost ratio.

Wherein, the threshold value described in step 3: refer to the service index that equipment must reach, it can meet the user demand of equipment.

Wherein, to be proposed through lot of experiments by U.S. J.T.Duane at the Du An described in step 3 (Duane) model: product is in reliability growth test, cumulative failure rate is for accumulation test period, convergence straight line on log-log paper, that is:

lnM(t)＝mlnt-lna

Wherein, M (t) is desired value; T is test period; A is threshold value; M is rate of growth.

Wherein, in the analytical hierarchy process described in step 4, the excellent order method of scheme, quality assessment method, its concrete condition is as follows:

(1) analytical hierarchy process: the method is the integrated evaluating method that a kind of qualitative evaluation combines with quantitative evaluation.The method by setting up hierarchical structure, set up judgment matrix, comprehensively weigh this three step and realize the balance to scheme.While setting up hierarchical structure, according to evaluated object, by comprised factor grouping, each group is as a level.According to top, the form of some relevant middle layers and lowermost layer is lined up.The judgment matrix of setting up is for representing for last layer time certain element, the situation of relative importance between this level Its Related Elements.While comprehensively balance, first carrying out single level sequence calculates for last layer element according to judgment matrix, this level is the weights of associated element importance with it, then carry out the total sequence of level and utilize the result of the single order of all levels in same level, calculate the weights for last layer time this level all elements importance.

(2) the excellent order method of scheme: the method is that all schemes are carried out once to good and bad sequence for each evaluation index, then by the calculating to its excellent ordinal number, comprehensively weighs.

(3) quality assessment method: the method is by analyzing the property value of each scheme to different quality characteristic, then calculates the relative effect value of each scheme, carries out the quality balance of scheme then.

(3) advantage of the present invention:

(1) the present invention considering adequacy, necessity, meet engineering custom, can argumentation, chosen more complete ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter according to the feature of ground-to-ground missile on the principle basis of designability, verifiability and carried out quantitative requirement demonstration, changed that parameter in demonstration technology is in the past imperfect, the indefinite defect of concept of the parameter of carrying;

(2) the present invention is directed to the feature of ground-to-ground missile, from the formation of ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter quantitative requirement demonstration, parameter system, definite, the optimization grade of index, a kind of science, normalized ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method are provided.

Four, accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is process flow diagram of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is × × type guided missile composition diagram;

Fig. 3 is × × type missile equipment system composition diagram;

Fig. 4 is × × type missile age sectional view;

Fig. 5 is × × type missile flight sectional view.

Five, embodiment

A kind of ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method of the present invention is take the essential information of ground-to-ground missile as prerequisite, and these essential informations are project verification background and mission requirements, ground-to-ground missile basic condition, operational version, initial guarantee plan, guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad.The content that various information comprises is specific as follows:

1) project verification background and mission requirements are described development project verification background and the mission task of ground-to-ground missile;

2) ground-to-ground missile basic condition is described basic composition and the major function of ground-to-ground missile;

3) operational version information is to prefer definite operational version according to the mission requirements of ground-to-ground missile development or the use of its hypothesis, clear and definite concrete request for utilization, and draft in detail on this basis life profile, and to duty cycle, environmental stress and the time quantitative numerical value in various environment.Because ground-to-ground missile is undertaken multiple-task in lifetime, must formulate detailed typical mission section.While formulating mission profile, should select the most representative several tasks to be described, these several the tasks various functions of mulched ground ground guided missile system as far as possible.In the time describing typical mission section, should sequential, the whole process environment variation etc. of the variety of event in whole process of finishing the work be explained clear;

4) initial guarantee plan is described the basic maintenance of ground-to-ground missile, guarantee plan;

5) domestic and international similarly guided missile reliability parameter horizontal information refers to and carries out deep investigation and analytical work, understands and grasp the details of domestic and international ground-to-ground missile of the same type, after demonstration is analyzed, selects similar ground-to-ground missile as a reference.

As shown in Figure 1, a kind of ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method of the present invention, its step is as follows:

Step 1, definitely guided missile reliability top layer parameter index: by analyzing the essential information of ground-to-ground missile and affecting the factor of ground-to-ground missile reliability level, ground-to-ground missile request for utilization is changed into the index of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter.In the present invention, ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter adopts technical readiness, standby readiness and Mission Success rate.The employing modelling of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter index or operation simulation method or like product analogy method are determined.In the present invention, ground-to-ground missile technical readiness, standby readiness and Mission Success rate all can adopt modelling or operation simulation method or like product analogy method to determine.While adopting modelling to determine technical readiness, standby readiness and Mission Success rate, first determine the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success by the model of guided missile target kill probability, then adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success is decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value and Mission Success rate, finally adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness.

Step 2, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index decomposes over the ground: adopt numerical value decomposition method or average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design that the technical readiness of ground-to-ground missile, standby readiness and Mission Success rate are decomposed and obtain the mean time between failures (MTBF), mean repair time (MTTR) of ground-to-ground missile, on average ensure delay time at stop (MLDT), launching reliability, flying reliability, the isoparametric index of ignition fiduciary level, be the desired value of dependability parameter.The decomposition of technical readiness and standby readiness adopts numerical value decomposition method, decomposes the mean down time that obtains ground-to-ground missile, mean repair time, on average ensures the delay time at stop.The decomposition of Mission Success rate adopts average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design, decomposes the launching reliability, flying reliability, the ignition fiduciary level that obtain ground-to-ground missile.

Step 3, definitely guided missile reliability parameter threshold value: the dependability parameter threshold value of ground-to-ground missile is the service index that ground-to-ground missile must reach, it can meet the request for utilization of equipment, is to determine minimum foundation that can reception value.The dependability parameter desired value obtaining according to step 2 adopts Du An (Duane) model guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely.Determining of reliability index threshold value based on Du An (Duane) model need to be carried out following five steps operation: (1) is definite newly develops the ground-to-ground missile maturity stage.Ground-to-ground missile has the quite a long time from design typification to maturity stage, during this period of time because different ground-to-ground missiles are different in size, can determine according to engineering experience; (2) determine the factor that affects ground-to-ground missile reliability growth rate.The factor that affects the reliability growth rate of ground-to-ground missile comprises: after the complexity of ground-to-ground missile, schedule requirement, technical capability, technology maturity, research fund, army are used, improve input, army's working strength, development stage testing intensity etc.; (3) adopt simple point system or analytical hierarchy process to calculate the weight coefficient of each factor for reliability growth; (4) utilize judge method comprehensively to pass judgment on and calculate rate of growth to the carrying out of influence factor; (5) utilize Du An (Duane) modular form to calculate threshold value.

Step 4, guided missile reliability parameter index and expense are weighed over the ground: the invention provides three kinds of diverse ways and weigh, multiple ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme are carried out to the trade-off analysis of index and expense, thereby determine optimal case.These three kinds of methods are respectively: analytical hierarchy process, the excellent order method of scheme and quality assessment method.Wherein, the balance that (1) analytical hierarchy process carries out scheme is divided into three steps: set up hierarchical structure, set up judgment matrix, comprehensively weigh; (2) the excellent order method of scheme is that all schemes are carried out once to good and bad sequence for each evaluation index, then by the calculating to its excellent ordinal number, comprehensively weighs; (3) quality assessment method is by analyzing the property value of each scheme to different quality characteristic, then calculates the relative effect value of each scheme, then carries out the quality balance of scheme.

Step 5, the technical and economic feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground: (1) first should grasp dependability parameter parameter system and the desired value thereof that this weaponry is put forward when the technical feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground, then adopts the method deployment analysis of engineering experience or similar equipment analogy.(2) analyze one by one the impact of dependability parameter index on life cycle cost when the economic feasibility analysis of guided missile reliability parameter index, whether the dependability parameter index being proposed to determine can bear economically over the ground.If think ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index in technology or lack economically feasibility, need the operation of repeating step 1 to step 5, until obtain satisfied result after step 5 is analyzed.

Hereby lift case study on implementation as follows:

Present case is take × × type guided missile as example, the application of a kind of ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method of statement the present invention.

This case essential information situation is as follows:

(1) project verification background and mission requirements:

For the level of the reliability of raising × × type guided missile, maintainability, protection, the demonstration that carry out × × type guided missile reliability maintainability protection requires.

(2) ground-to-ground missile basic condition:

As shown in Figure 3, the composition of guided missile as shown in Figure 2 for the composition of × × type missile equipment system.

(3) operational version information:

× × type missile equipment system the mode of operation adopts support, has the multiple transmitting modes such as highway is motor-driven, railway-highway (containing cross-country) is motor-driven.× × type missile age section as shown in Figure 4.× × type guided missile mission profile mainly comprises transmitting preparation section and missile flight section.Wherein, × × type missile flight section is as shown in Figure 5.

(4) initially ensure descriptor:

The maintenance system of × × type guided missile, identical with other ground-to-ground missiles, be divided into three grades of maintenances: base level, Relay, Base Level.Base level keeps in repair by REPSH repair shop maintenance personal and operator shared, and main method for maintaining is to change part to repair, tear open the reason of cannibalizing, keep in repair and float, and mainly completes maintaining and light maintenance.Relay maintenance is born by base repair plant, completes comparatively complicated and time-consuming plant equipment and the maintenance job of electronic equipment.Base Level maintenance is born by equipment repair factory and equipment manufacture conventionally, has been mainly equipment overhaul, has reequiped, overhauls and answer the processing of urgent document or dispatch, and equipment manufacture also must complete required special zero spare part of missile armament.

(5) domestic and international similar guided missile reliability parameter horizontal information:

External certain type guided missile similar to × × type ground-to-ground missile, its partial reliability parameter level is as shown in table 1.

The domestic and international similar guided missile partial reliability parameter level of table 1

More than × basis of × type guided missile essential information on, definite work of carry out × × type guided missile reliability parameter.

Case implementing procedure is above-mentioned five steps.For present case, obtain × × type guided missile reliability top layer parameter index of step 1 is: technical readiness is 0.89, and standby readiness is 0.9, and Mission Success rate is 0.7; After step 2, step 3, step 4, step 5, the final dependability parameter achievement data of obtained × × type guided missile reliability parameter, concrete condition is as follows:

Technical readiness P _tp=0.89;

Standby readiness P _wp=0.9;

Mission Success rate P _rc=0.7;

Launching reliability R _fs=0.85;

Flying reliability R _fx=0.9;

Mean time between failures MTBF=100 hour;

The average delay time at stop MLDT=2 hour that ensures;

Mean repair time MTTR≤40 minute.

Claims (1)

1. a ground-to-ground missile reliability quantification requirement demonstration method, the method be essential information take ground-to-ground missile as prerequisite, these essential informations comprise project verification background and mission requirements, ground-to-ground missile basic condition, operational version, initial guarantee plan and guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad; It is characterized in that: the concrete steps of the method are as follows:

Step 1, definitely guided missile reliability top layer parameter index: by analyzing the essential information of ground-to-ground missile and affecting the factor of ground-to-ground missile reliability level, ground-to-ground missile request for utilization is changed into the index of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter; This ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter refers to the dependability parameter that affects ground-to-ground missile usefulness that ground-to-ground missile ordering party proposes according to user demand, and it includes technical readiness, standby readiness and Mission Success rate; The index of technical readiness, standby readiness and Mission Success rate is determined according to ground-to-ground missile request for utilization and ground-to-ground missile architectural characteristic and is adopted modelling or operation simulation method or like product analogy method to determine;

Step 2, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index decomposes over the ground: the decomposition of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter index adopts numerical value decomposition method or average distribution system or proportionate allocation or the apportion design of marking to decompose according to actual conditions; This step by the technical readiness of ground-to-ground missile, standby readiness and Mission Success rate decompose obtain ground-to-ground missile mean time between failures, mean repair time, on average ensure the index of delay time at stop, launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, be the desired value of dependability parameter;

Step 3, definitely guided missile reliability parameter threshold value: the dependability parameter desired value obtaining according to step 2 adopts Duane model guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely;

Step 4, guided missile reliability parameter index and expense are weighed over the ground: adopt analytical hierarchy process, the excellent order method of scheme and quality assessment method a plurality of ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme to be carried out to the trade-off analysis of index and expense, thereby determine optimum ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme;

Step 5, the technical and economic feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground: (1) first should grasp dependability parameter system and the desired value thereof that this ground-to-ground missile is put forward when the technical feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground, then adopts the method deployment analysis of engineering experience or like product analogy; (2) analyze one by one the impact of dependability parameter index on life cycle cost when the economic feasibility analysis of guided missile reliability parameter index, whether the dependability parameter index being proposed to determine can bear economically over the ground; If think ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index in technology or lack economically feasibility, need to re-start the operation of step 1 to step 5, until obtain satisfied result after step 5 is analyzed;

Wherein, described " essential information " includes: (1) project verification background and mission requirements information: be development project verification background and the mission mission bit stream for describing ground-to-ground missile; (2) ground-to-ground missile basic condition information: for describing basic composition and the major function of ground-to-ground missile; (3) operational version information: be to prefer definite operational version according to the mission requirements of ground-to-ground missile development or the use of its hypothesis, clear and definite concrete request for utilization, and draft in detail on this basis life profile, and to duty cycle, environmental stress and the time quantitative numerical value in various environment; (4) initial guarantee plan: be for describing the basic maintenance of ground-to-ground missile, guarantee plan; (5) guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad: refer to and carry out deep investigation and analytical work, understand and grasp the details of domestic and international ground-to-ground missile of the same type, after demonstration is analyzed, select similar ground-to-ground missile as a reference;

Wherein, at the technical readiness described in step 1, the Index of standby readiness and Mission Success rate, to adopt modelling, the method refers to the computation model according to ground-to-ground missile target kill probability, calculate the war preparedness integrity of ground-to-ground missile and the product value of Mission Success, then adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success is decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value and Mission Success rate, finally adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness, the model that calculates the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success in this modelling is:

$P_1\×P_2=\frac{1-\sqrt[n]{1-W\left(h\right)}}{P_4}$

Wherein, P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂for Mission Success rate; P ₄for single-shot ground-to-ground missile target kill probability; W (n) launches to same target under identical conditions for n sends out ground-to-ground missile, has the probability of a target kill at least, i.e. the probability of ground-to-ground missile target kill; N is the number of ground-to-ground missile;

In this modelling, obtaining adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation after the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success is P by the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success ₁× P ₂be decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value and Mission Success rate; Average distribution system, scoring apportion design and proportionate allocation are P to the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success ₁× P ₂concrete performance while decomposition is as follows:

(a) adopt average distribution system to decompose the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to war preparedness integrity and Mission Success, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_1=P_2=\sqrt{P_1\×P_2}$

Wherein, P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂for Mission Success rate; P ₁× P ₂the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success;

(b) adopt scoring apportion design to decompose the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success: this scoring apportion design is in the situation that data lack very much, by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, several factors that affect war preparedness integrity and Mission Success are marked, and score value is carried out to comprehensive analysis acquisition war preparedness integrity and Mission Success relative ratio, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution; In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, work complexity, working time, environmental baseline; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$P_1={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}\×(P_1\×P_2))}^{0.5}$

$P_2={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}\×(P_1\×P_2))}^{0.5}$

In formula: ${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}},i=\mathrm{1,2}$

Wherein, P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂for Mission Success rate; P ₁× P ₂the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success; ω ₁for the scoring gross score of war preparedness integrity desired value; ω ₂for the scoring gross score of Mission Success rate; ω _iit is the scoring gross score of i index; r _ijit is the score value of j influence factor of i index; I is i item index; J is j influence factor;

(c) adoption rate apportion design is decomposed the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success: this proportionate allocation is according to war preparedness integrity and the shared ratio of Mission Success index, is P to the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success ₁× P ₂distribute, the apportion model of this proportionate allocation is as follows:

P ₁=a×(P ₁×P ₂)

P ₂=(1-a)×(P ₁×P ₂)

Wherein, P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂for Mission Success rate; P ₁× P ₂the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success; A is war preparedness integrity desired value shared ratio in the product value of war preparedness integrity and Mission Success;

In modelling, obtain adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness after war preparedness integrity desired value; Concrete performance while adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness is as follows:

(a) adopt average distribution system to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this average distribution system is that technical readiness and standby readiness are distributed to equal numerical value, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}=P_{\mathrm{wp}}=\sqrt{P_1}$

Wherein, P _tpfor technical readiness; P _wpfor standby readiness; P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value;

(b) adopt scoring apportion design to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this scoring apportion design is in the situation that data lack very much, several factor scorings to influence technique readiness rate and standby readiness by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, and score value is carried out to comprehensive analysis acquisition technical readiness and standby readiness relative ratio, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution; In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}\×P_1)}^{0.5}$

$P_{\mathrm{wp}}={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}\×P_1)}^{0.5}$

In formula: ${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}},i=\mathrm{1,2}$

Wherein, P _tpit is technical readiness; P _wpit is standby readiness; P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; ω ₁for the scoring gross score of technical readiness; ω ₂for the scoring gross score of standby readiness; ω _iit is the scoring gross score of i index; r _ijit is the score value of j influence factor of i index; I is i item index; J is j influence factor;

(c) adoption rate apportion design is decomposed war preparedness integrity desired value: this proportionate allocation is according to technical readiness and standby readiness shared ratio in war preparedness integrity desired value, war preparedness integrity desired value is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

Pt _p=a×P ₁

P _wp=(1-a)×P ₁

Wherein, P _tpit is technical readiness; P _wpit is standby readiness; P ₁for war preparedness integrity desired value; A is technical readiness shared ratio in war preparedness integrity desired value;

Wherein, at the Index of the technical readiness described in step 1, standby readiness and Mission Success rate, to adopt operation simulation method, the method is resisted emulation by operation, analyze ground-to-ground missile reliability level to the impact of fighting, draw the technical readiness, standby readiness and the Mission Success rate that meet operational need;

Wherein, at the Index of the technical readiness described in step 1, standby readiness and Mission Success rate, to adopt like product analogy method, the method is by the information data statistical study to active service ground-to-ground missile, the level that the relevant parameter of analysis active service ground-to-ground missile reaches, thereby technical readiness, standby readiness and the Mission Success rate of definite ground-to-ground missile;

Wherein, in the numerical value decomposition method described in step 2, be the method for decomposition technique readiness rate, the decomposition model of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T}\×(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T})\×e^{-\frac{t_j}{\mathrm{MTBF}}}+(1+\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T}\×(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T})\×e^{-\frac{t_j}{\mathrm{MTBF}}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_d}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})$

Wherein, P _tpfor technical readiness; λ _zfor storage failure rate; T is storage period; t _jfor technology setup time; t _dthe time that can be used for carrying out maintenance job and delay in the technology preparatory stage for armament systems; MTBF is the mean time between failures; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT on average ensures the delay time at stop; E is natural logarithm;

The concrete implementation step of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

A) determine master data: this master data comprises the storage failure rate of ground-to-ground missile, storage period, technology setup time, time and technical readiness that armament systems can be used for carrying out maintenance job and delay in the technology preparatory stage are P _tp;

B) the given mean time between failures is MTBF and mean repair time to be scope and the change step of MTTR;

C) according to the model of technical readiness, for being MTTR calculating P each different mean repair time _tp-MTBF curve;

The actual techniques readiness rate value of d) decomposing as required, calculating is the P under MTTR in different mean repair times _tpthe point of correspondence on-MTBF curve, obtaining the mean time between failures under predetermined technical readiness is MTBF and mean repair time to be the combination of MTTR;

E), according to the domestic and international actual index situation of ground-to-ground missile, be MTBF and mean repair time to be to select one group as decomposition value the combination of MTTR from the different mean time between failures;

Wherein, in the numerical value decomposition method described in step 2, be the method for decomposing standby readiness, the decomposition model of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{wp}}=e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{T}t}\·e^{-\frac{t_w}{\mathrm{MTBF}}}+(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{T}t}\·e^{-\frac{t_w}{\mathrm{MTBF}}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_{\mathrm{wd}}}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})$

Wherein, P _wpfor standby readiness; λ _tfor standby crash rate; T is stand-by time; t _wfor standby setup time; t _wdfor armament systems allow the time of keeping in repair and waiting for when the standby; E is natural logarithm; MBTF is the mean time between failures; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT on average ensures the delay time at stop;

The concrete implementation step of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

A) determine master data: this master data comprises the standby crash rate of ground-to-ground missile, stand-by time, standby setup time, armament systems allow the time and the standby readiness P that keep in repair and wait in the time of standby _wp;

B) the given mean time between failures is MTBF and mean repair time to be scope and the change step of MTTR;

C) according to the model of standby readiness, for being MTTR calculating P each different mean repair time _wp-MTBF curve;

The actual standby readiness value of d) decomposing as required, calculating is the P under MTTR in different mean repair times _wpthe point of correspondence on-MTBF curve, obtaining the mean time between failures under predetermined standby readiness is MTBF and mean repair time to be the combination of MTTR;

E), according to the domestic and international actual index situation of ground-to-ground missile, be MTBF and mean repair time to be to select one group as decomposition value the combination of MTTR from the different mean time between failures;

Wherein, in the average distribution system described in step 2, proportionate allocation, scoring apportion design, be the method for task resolution success ratio; The decomposition model of Mission Success rate can be divided into four kinds of decomposition models according to the situation of ground-to-ground missile, and the concrete condition of these four kinds of models is as follows:

1) in the time that ground-to-ground missile thinks that can not keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level carries separately during at launching site, Mission Success rate and launching reliability, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level are relevant, and Mission Success rate decomposition model is in this case:

P _rc=R _fs×R _fx×R _yb

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level;

Under this decomposition model, adopt average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design to divide the concrete performance of timing as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=R_{\mathrm{yb}}=\sqrt[3]{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level;

B. adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level shared ratio in task success ratio, and Mission Success rate is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

R _fs=a×P _rc

R _fx=b×P _rc

R _yb=c×P _rc

a+b+c=1

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level; A is launching reliability shared ratio in task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio; C ignites fiduciary level shared ratio in task success ratio;

C. adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, several factors that affect launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level to be marked, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution; In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[3]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _ibe i item index, index comprises launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level; ω _iit is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of indices; r _ijit is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is i item index, i=1,2,3; J is j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4;

2) in the time that ground-to-ground missile thinks that can not keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level does not carry separately during at launching site, Mission Success rate is relevant with launching reliability and flying reliability, and Mission Success rate decomposition model is in this case:

P _rc=R _fs×R _fx

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability;

Under this decomposition model, adopt average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design to divide the concrete performance of timing as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to launching reliability and flying reliability, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=\sqrt{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability;

B. adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to launching reliability and flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio, and Mission Success rate is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

R _fs=a×P _rc

R _fx=b×P _rc

a+b=1

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _fsfor launching reliability; R _fxfor flying reliability; A is launching reliability shared ratio in task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio;

C. adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, several factors that affect launching reliability and flying reliability to be marked, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition launching reliability and flying reliability, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution; In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[2]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _ibe i item index, index comprises launching reliability and flying reliability; ω _iit is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of indices; r _ijit is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is i item index, i=1,2; J is j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4;

3) think during at launching site and can simply keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level while carrying separately to uphole equipment when ground-to-ground missile, Mission Success rate and transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level are relevant, and Mission Success rate decomposition model is in this case:

P _rc=P _fs×R _fx×R _yb

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level;

Under this decomposition model, adopt average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design to divide the concrete performance of timing as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=R_{\mathrm{yb}}=\sqrt[3]{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level;

B. adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level shared ratio in task success ratio, and Mission Success rate is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _fs=a×P _rc

R _fx=b×P _rc

R _yb=c×P _rc

a+b+c=1

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability; R _ybfor igniting fiduciary level; A is transmitting readiness rate shared ratio in task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio; C ignites fiduciary level shared ratio in task success ratio;

C. adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is several factor scorings on impact transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution; In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[3]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _ibe i item index, index comprises transmitting readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level; ω _iit is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of indices; r _ijit is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is i item index, i=1,2,3; J is j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4;

4) think during at launching site and can simply keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level while not carrying separately to uphole equipment when ground-to-ground missile, Mission Success rate is relevant with flying reliability with transmitting readiness rate, and Mission Success rate decomposition model is in this case:

P _rc=P _fs×R _fx

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability;

Under this decomposition model, adopt average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design to divide the concrete performance of timing as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=\sqrt{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability;

B. adoption rate apportion design: this proportionate allocation is according to transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio, and Mission Success rate is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _fs=a×P _rc

R _fx=b×P _rc

a+b=1

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; P _fsfor transmitting readiness rate; R _fxfor flying reliability a is transmitting readiness rate shared ratio in task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in task success ratio;

C. adopt scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is several factor scorings on impact transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability by experienced demonstration personnel or expert, and score value is carried out to the comprehensive relative ratio of analyzing acquisition transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability, then according to relative ratio indicator of distribution; In this scoring apportion design, consider that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[2]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _rcfor Mission Success rate; R _ibe i index, index comprises transmitting readiness rate and flying reliability; ω _iit is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of indices; r _ijit is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is i item index, i=1,2; J is j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4;

At decomposition model 3), 4) in, what adopt that average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design divide that timing obtains is to launch readiness rate, need to convert launching reliability to by formula; Conversion formula is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fsd}}=R_{\mathrm{fsm}}\×[R_{\mathrm{fsd}}+(1-R_{\mathrm{fsd}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_{\mathrm{fd}}}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})]$

Wherein, P _fsdfor the transmitting readiness rate having distributed; R _fsmfor MISSILE LAUNCHING fiduciary level; R _fsdfor land equipment is at the launching reliability of launching site; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT is the average delay time at stop that ensures; t _fdthe time that can be used for maintenance and wait for while preparation for transmitting;

Wherein, in the analytical hierarchy process described in step 4, the excellent order method of scheme, quality assessment method, its concrete condition is as follows:

(1) analytical hierarchy process: the method is the integrated evaluating method that a kind of qualitative evaluation combines with quantitative evaluation; The method by setting up hierarchical structure, set up judgment matrix, comprehensively weigh this three step and realize the balance to scheme; While setting up hierarchical structure, according to evaluated object, by comprised factor grouping, each group is as a level; According to top, relevant middle layer and the form of lowermost layer are lined up; The judgment matrix of setting up is for representing for last layer time certain element, the situation of relative importance between this level Its Related Elements; While comprehensively balance, first carrying out single level sequence calculates for last layer element according to judgment matrix, this level is the weights of associated element importance with it, then carry out the total sequence of level and utilize the result of the single order of all levels in same level, calculate the weights for last layer time this level all elements importance;

(2) the excellent order method of scheme: the method is that all schemes are carried out once to good and bad sequence for each evaluation index, then by the calculating to its excellent ordinal number, comprehensively weighs;

(3) quality assessment method: the method is by analyzing the property value of each scheme to different quality characteristic, then calculates the relative effect value of each scheme, carries out the quality balance of scheme then.

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