CN102156804A - Demonstration method for reliability quantitative requirements of ground-to-ground missile - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a demonstration method for reliability quantitative requirements of a ground-to-ground missile, comprising the following steps of: 1, determining a reliability top-level parameter index of the ground-to-ground missile; 2, decomposing the reliability top-level parameter index of the ground-to-ground missile; 3, determining a reliability parameter threshold of the ground-to-ground missile; 4, balancing the reliability parameter index and the cost of the ground-to-ground missile; 5, analyzing the technical economic feasibility of the reliability parameter index of the ground-to-ground missile. The invention provides the demonstration method for reliability quantitative requirements of the ground-to-ground missile for determining the reliability parameter of the ground-to-ground missile, wherein the method is fit for our country national condition and strong in operability, and can guide the demonstration work of the reliability quantitative requirements of the ground-to-ground missile and improve the reliability of the ground-to-ground missile.

Description

The ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability requires the demonstration method

One, technical field

The invention provides a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability and require the demonstration method, belong to the reliability engineering technical field.

Two, background technology

Ground-to-ground missile demonstration is to be foundation with the science and technology and the level of economic development, is systematic analysis and the design process that means are carried out with the theory and the method for science.The ground-to-ground missile demonstration is the primary link in the ground-to-ground missile evolution, is the basis of ground-to-ground missile development effort.Facts have proved that all demonstrations are sufficient, it is more objective, with clearly defined objective that project is determined, institute's summary summing target is more reasonable, the ground-to-ground missile success ratio height of developing, cycle weak point; Otherwise, prove inadequate project, perhaps the slow development of ground-to-ground missile is not come out, and can not effectively use after perhaps developing, and causes manpower financial capacity's significant wastage.Therefore, the ground-to-ground missile demonstration is in crucial status in the ground-to-ground missile development.Wherein, ground-to-ground missile reliability requirement demonstration is the important component part of ground-to-ground missile demonstration, and ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability requirement demonstration is a most important component in the ground-to-ground missile reliability requirement demonstration.

Ground-to-ground missile reliability requirement demonstration comprises quantitative requirement demonstration, qualitative requirement demonstration, job demonstration, and the quantitative requirement demonstration comprises the selection of dependability parameter and determining of quantitative target.Reliability Work has been carried out in the development of ground-to-ground missile to a certain extent, and needs and characteristics according to oneself in the demonstration have been selected dependability parameter for use, have proposed the desired value of each parameter.But also have certain defective as a whole, notion imperfect as parameter, the parameter of carrying is indeterminate, the feasibility deficiency of parameter etc., and the shortage of proving technology, means has in addition also restricted reliability engineering carrying out in the ground-to-ground missile development greatly.Because the engineering development of the relative weapon tradition of reliability engineering technology is later, add traditional concept, promptly pay attention to operational performance, do not pay attention to the existence of reliability performance, it is lack of standardization, unreasonable to cause the reliability demonstration to exist, the problem of the scientific difference of demonstration means.At the problems referred to above, the present invention research and provide a kind of and tallied with the national condition, the ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability of strong operability requires the demonstration method.

Three, summary of the invention

(1) purpose:

The purpose of this invention is to provide a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability and require the demonstration method, it is demand and the deficiencies in the prior art at the characteristics of ground-to-ground missile and reliability demonstration, on the basis of summing up experience, study from aspects such as the determining of the formation of program, the parameter system of demonstration, index, balance optimizations, provide a kind of and tally with the national condition, the ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability of strong operability requires the demonstration method, instruct the Quantitative Reliability of ground-to-ground missile to require demonstration, and then improve the reliability level of ground-to-ground missile.

(2) technical scheme:

A kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability of the present invention requires the demonstration method, essential information with ground-to-ground missile is a prerequisite, and these essential informations comprise project verification background and mission requirements, ground-to-ground missile basic condition, operational version, initial guarantee plan and guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad.

A kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability of the present invention requires the demonstration method, and its step is as follows:

Step 1, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index definitely:, the ground-to-ground missile request for utilization is changed into the index of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter by the essential information of analyzing ground-to-ground missile and the factor that influences ground-to-ground missile reliability level.This ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter is meant the dependability parameter that influences ground-to-ground missile usefulness that ground-to-ground missile order root proposes according to user demand, and it includes technical readiness, standby readiness and task success ratio.The index of technical readiness, standby readiness and task success ratio is determined can adopt a kind of or several methods in modelling, Combat Simulation method, the like product analogy method to determine according to ground-to-ground missile request for utilization and ground-to-ground missile architectural characteristic.

Step 2, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index decomposes over the ground: the decomposition of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter index can adopt a kind of or several methods in numerical value decomposition method, average distribution system, proportionate allocation, the scoring apportion design to decompose according to actual conditions.This step is decomposed technical readiness, standby readiness and the task success ratio of ground-to-ground missile mean time between failures (MTBF) of obtaining ground-to-ground missile, Mean Time To Repair, is on average ensured the index of delay time at stop (MLDT), launching reliability, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level, is the desired value of dependability parameter.

Step 3, guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely: the dependability parameter desired value that obtains according to step 2 adopts Du An (Duane) model guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely.

Step 4, guided missile reliability parameter index and expense are weighed over the ground: the present invention adopts analytical hierarchy process, the excellent preface method of scheme and quality assessment method that several ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme are carried out the trade-off analysis of index and expense, thereby determines optimum ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme.

Step 5, the technical and economic feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground: (1) at first should grasp dependability parameter system and the desired value thereof that this ground-to-ground missile is put forward when the technical feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground, adopts the method deployment analysis of engineering experience or like product analogy then.(2) analyze of the influence of dependability parameter index during the economic feasibility analysis of guided missile reliability parameter index one by one over the ground, whether can bear economically to determine the dependability parameter index that is proposed to life cycle cost.If think after analyzing through step 5 that ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index in technology or lack feasibility economically, then needs to carry out again the operation of step 1 to step 5, up to obtaining satisfied result.

Wherein, described " essential information " is meant that method of the present invention carries out on following essential information basis, and this essential information comprises having:

(1) project verification background and mission requirements information: be development project verification background and the mission mission bit stream that is used to describe ground-to-ground missile;

(2) ground-to-ground missile basic condition information: the basic composition and the major function that are used to describe ground-to-ground missile;

(3) operational version information: be to prefer definite operational version according to the mission requirements of ground-to-ground missile development or the use of its hypothesis, clear and definite concrete request for utilization, and draft life profile on this basis in detail, and duty cycle, environmental stress and time of being in the various environment are provided quantitative value;

(4) initial guarantee plan: be to be used to describe the basic maintenance of ground-to-ground missile, guarantee plan;

(5) guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad: be meant and carry out deep investigation and analytical work, understand and grasp the details of domestic and international ground-to-ground missile of the same type, after demonstration is analyzed, select similar ground-to-ground missile as a reference.

Wherein, in the technical readiness described in the step 1, standby readiness and task success ratio: the reliability top layer parameter that is ground-to-ground missile.After technical readiness was meant and receives the operation warning order, the ground-to-ground missile change system of stored condition required to finish the probability of technical preparation in accordance with regulations in the technology of regulation in setup time.Standby readiness is meant the intact ground-to-ground missile change system of technology preparation, requires to finish the probability of standby preliminary work in the stand-by time of regulation in accordance with regulations.The task success ratio is meant the emission of ground-to-ground missile change system successful execution, the flight that enters launching site and ignites the probability of task.

Wherein, determine method in the index of the technical readiness described in the step 1, standby readiness and task success ratio: be a kind of in modelling, Combat Simulation method, the like product analogy method or several.The concrete condition of these methods is as follows:

A) modelling: this method is determined reliability top layer parameter index by the relationship model formula after being meant the value of determining other parameter in the dependability parameter model.

B) Combat Simulation method: this method is meant according to the typical mission section of ground-to-ground missile and concrete request for utilization, be responsible for the personnel of this ground-to-ground missile system demonstration by the military, angle from ground-to-ground missile system effectiveness or fighting efficiency, provide can reflect these ground-to-ground missile mission requirements, require comprehensive war skill index that be correlated with, quantification or corresponding operational assessment model with the reliability correlation parameter, according to actual war fighting requirement or its comprehensive war skill index request, by calculating and analyze the initial value that obtains the dependability parameter requirement to this ground-to-ground missile.

C) like product analogy method: this method is meant by the information data statistics to the active service ground-to-ground missile, the level that the relevant parameter of analysis active service ground-to-ground missile reaches, thereby the dependability parameter index of definite ground-to-ground missile.

Concrete performance when adopting modelling, Combat Simulation method and like product analogy method to determine technical readiness, standby readiness and task success ratio is as follows:

(1) adopt modelling: this modelling is meant the computation model according to ground-to-ground missile target kill probability, calculate the war preparedness integrity of ground-to-ground missile and the product value of task success, adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success is decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value and task success ratio then, adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness at last.The model that calculates the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success in this method is:

$P_1\×P_2=\frac{1-\sqrt[n]{1-W\left(n\right)}}{P_4}$

Wherein, P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂Be the task success ratio; P ₄Be single-shot ground-to-ground missile target kill probability; W (n) launches to same target under identical conditions for n sends out ground-to-ground missile, has the probability of a target kill at least, i.e. the probability of ground-to-ground missile target kill; N is the number of sending out of ground-to-ground missile.

Obtain in the modelling adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation product value P behind the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success with war preparedness integrity and task success ₁* P ₂Be decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value P ₁With task success ratio P ₂Average distribution system, scoring apportion design and proportionate allocation are to the product value P of war preparedness integrity and task success ₁* P ₂Concrete performance when decomposing is as follows:

(a) adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is that its apportion model is as follows to war preparedness integrity and the same numerical value of task success distribution:

$P_1=P_2=\sqrt{P_1\×P_2}$

Wherein, P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂Be the task success ratio; P ₁* P ₂Product value for war preparedness integrity and task success.

(b) adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is under the situation that data lack very much, by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors that influence war preparedness integrity and task success are marked, and score value carried out the relative ratio that analysis-by-synthesis obtains war preparedness integrity and task success, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution.Consider in this scoring apportion design method that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, work complexity, working time, environmental baseline.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$P_1={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}\×(P_1\×P_2))}^{0.5}$

$P_2={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}\×(P_1\×P_2))}^{0.5}$

In the formula: ${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}},$ i＝1，2

Wherein, P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂Be the task success ratio; P ₁* P ₂The product value of war preparedness integrity and task success; ω ₁Scoring gross score for war preparedness integrity desired value; ω ₂Scoring gross score for the task success ratio; ω _iIt is the scoring gross score of i index; r _IjIt is the score value of j influence factor of i index; I is an i index; J is a j influence factor.

(c) adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to war preparedness integrity and the shared ratio of task success index, to the product value P of war preparedness integrity and task success ₁* P ₂Distribute, its apportion model is as follows:

P ₁＝a×(P ₁×P ₂)

P ₂＝(1-a)×(P ₁×P ₂)

Wherein, P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂Be the task success ratio; P ₁* P ₂The product value of war preparedness integrity and task success; A is the product value P of war preparedness integrity desired value in war preparedness integrity and task success ₁* P ₂In shared ratio.

Obtain in the modelling adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness after the war preparedness integrity desired value.Concrete performance when adopting average distribution system, scoring apportion design and proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness is as follows:

(a) adopt average distribution system to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this average distribution system is that technical readiness and standby readiness are distributed the numerical value that equates, its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}=P_{\mathrm{wp}}=\sqrt{P_1}$

Wherein, P _TpIt is technical readiness; P _WpIt is standby readiness; P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value.

(b) adopt the scoring apportion design to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this scoring apportion design is under the situation that data lack very much, by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors of influence technique readiness rate and standby readiness are marked, and score value is carried out analysis-by-synthesis obtain technical readiness and standby readiness relative ratio, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution.Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}\×P_1)}^{0.5}$

$P_{\mathrm{wp}}={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}\×P_1)}^{0.5}$

In the formula: ${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}},$ i＝1，2

Wherein, P _TpIt is technical readiness; P _WpIt is standby readiness; P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; ω ₁Scoring gross score for technical readiness; ω ₂Scoring gross score for standby readiness; ω _iIt is the scoring gross score of i index; r _IjIt is the score value of j influence factor of i index; I is an i index; J is a j influence factor.

(c) adopt proportionate allocation to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this proportionate allocation is shared ratio in war preparedness integrity desired value according to technical readiness and standby readiness, war preparedness integrity desired value is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _tp＝a×P ₁

P _wp＝(1-a)×P ₁

Wherein, P _TpIt is technical readiness; P _WpIt is standby readiness; P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; A is technical readiness shared ratio in war preparedness integrity desired value.

(2) adopt the Combat Simulation method: this Combat Simulation method is analyzed the influence of ground-to-ground missile reliability level to fighting by the antagonism emulation of fighting, and draws the technical readiness, standby readiness and the task success ratio that satisfy operational need.

(3) adopt the like product analogy method: this like product analogy method is by the information data statistics to the active service ground-to-ground missile, the level that the relevant parameter of analysis active service ground-to-ground missile reaches, thereby technical readiness, standby readiness and the task success ratio of definite ground-to-ground missile.

Wherein, in the numerical value decomposition method described in the step 2, average distribution system, proportionate allocation, scoring apportion design: be the method for ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter index being decomposed the desired value of the dependability parameter that obtains panzer.The numerical value decomposition method is adopted in the decomposition of technical readiness and standby readiness, and average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are adopted in the decomposition of task success ratio.

(1) to be applied to the concrete performance of decomposition technique readiness rate and standby readiness as follows for the numerical value decomposition method:

1) decomposition technique readiness rate: when adopting numerical value decomposition method decomposition technique readiness rate, its decomposition model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T}\×(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T})\×e^{-\frac{t_j}{\mathrm{MTBF}}}+(1-\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T}\×(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T})\×e^{-\frac{t_j}{\mathrm{MTBF}}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_d}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})$

Wherein, P _TpBe technical readiness; λ _ZBe the store failure rate; T is storage period; t _jBe technology setup time; t _dCan be used for carrying out the time of maintenance job and delay in the technology preparatory stage for armament systems; MBTF is the mean time between failures; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT on average ensures the delay time at stop; E is a natural logarithm.

The concrete implementation step of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

A) determine master data: this master data comprises the store failure rate of ground-to-ground missile, and storage period, technology setup time, armament systems can be used for carrying out the time and the technical readiness (P of maintenance job and delay in the technology preparatory stage _Tp);

B) scope and the change step of given mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR);

C) according to the model of technical readiness, calculate P at each different Mean Time To Repair _Tp-MTBF curve;

D) the actual techniques readiness rate value of decomposing is as required calculated the P under different Mean Time To Repair _TpThe point of correspondence on the-MTBF curve obtains the combination in certain following mean time between failures of technical readiness (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR);

E), from the combination of different mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR), select one group as decomposition value according to the domestic and international actual index situation of ground-to-ground missile.

2) decompose standby readiness: when adopting the numerical value decomposition method to decompose standby readiness, its decomposition model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{wp}}=e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{T}t}\·e^{-\frac{t_w}{\mathrm{MTBF}}}+(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{T}t}\·e^{-\frac{t_w}{\mathrm{MTBF}}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_{\mathrm{wd}}}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})$

Wherein, P _WpBe standby readiness; λ _TBe the standby crash rate; T is a stand-by time; t _wBe standby setup time; t _WdAllow time of keeping in repair and waiting for when the standby for armament systems; MTBF is the mean time between failures; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT on average ensures the delay time at stop; E is a natural logarithm.

The concrete implementation step of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

A) determine master data: this master data comprises the standby crash rate of ground-to-ground missile, stand-by time, and standby setup time, armament systems allow the time and the standby readiness (P that keep in repair and wait for when standby _Wp);

B) scope and the change step of given mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR);

C) according to the model of standby readiness, calculate P at each different Mean Time To Repair _Wp-MTBF curve;

D) the actual standby readiness value of decomposing is as required calculated the P under different Mean Time To Repair _WpThe point of correspondence on the-MTBF curve obtains the combination in certain following mean time between failures of standby readiness (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR);

E), from the combination of different mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean repair time (MTTR), select one group as decomposition value according to the domestic and international actual index situation of ground-to-ground missile.

(2) to be applied to the concrete performance of task resolution success ratio as follows for average distribution system, proportionate allocation, scoring apportion design:

The decomposition model of task success ratio can be divided into four kinds of decomposition models according to the situation of ground-to-ground missile, and the concrete condition of these four kinds of models is as follows:

When 1) local ground guided missile thought that when launching site can not keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level carries separately, task success ratio and launching reliability, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level were relevant, and task success ratio decomposition model in this case is:

P _rc＝R _fs×R _fx×R _yb

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level.

Under this decomposition model, the concrete performance that employing average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are carried out the branch timing is as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=R_{\mathrm{yb}}=\sqrt[3]{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level.

B. adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level shared ratio in the task success ratio, and the task success ratio is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

R _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

R _yb＝c×P _rc

a+b+c＝1

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level; A is launching reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio; C is for igniting fiduciary level shared ratio in the task success ratio.

C. adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors that influence launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level to be marked, and score value carried out the relative ratio that analysis-by-synthesis obtains launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution.Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[3]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _iBe i item index, index comprises launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level; ω _iIt is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of every index; r _IjIt is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is an i item index, i=1,2,3; J is a j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4.

When 2) local ground guided missile thought that when launching site can not keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level does not carry separately, task success ratio and launching reliability, flying reliability were relevant, and task success ratio decomposition model in this case is:

P _rc＝R _fs×R _fx

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability.

Under this decomposition model, the concrete performance that employing average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are carried out the branch timing is as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to launching reliability and flying reliability, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=\sqrt{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability.

B. adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to launching reliability and flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio, and the task success ratio is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

R _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

a+b＝1

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability; A is launching reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio.

C. adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors that influence launching reliability and flying reliability to be marked, and score value carried out the relative ratio that analysis-by-synthesis obtains launching reliability and flying reliability, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution.Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[2]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _iBe i item index, index comprises launching reliability and flying reliability; ω _iIt is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of every index; r _IjIt is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is an i item index, i=1,2; J is a j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4.

3) local ground guided missile is thought when launching site and can simply be keeped in repair and ignite fiduciary level when carrying separately to uphole equipment, task success ratio and emission readiness rate, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level are relevant, and task success ratio decomposition model in this case is:

P _rc＝P _fs×R _fx×R _yb

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level.

Under this decomposition model, the concrete performance that employing average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are carried out the branch timing is as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to emission readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=R_{\mathrm{yb}}=\sqrt[3]{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level.

B. adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to emission readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level shared ratio in the task success ratio, and the task success ratio is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

R _yb＝c×P _rc

a+b+c＝1

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level; A is emission readiness rate shared ratio in the task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio; C is for igniting fiduciary level shared ratio in the task success ratio.

C. adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors of influence emission readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level to be marked, and score value is carried out the analysis-by-synthesis acquisition launch the relative ratio of readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution.Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[3]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _iBe i item index, index comprises emission readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level; ω _iIt is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of every index; r _IjIt is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is an i item index, i=1,2,3; J is a j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4.

4) local ground guided missile is thought when launching site and can simply be keeped in repair and ignite fiduciary level when not carrying separately to uphole equipment, the task success ratio with launch readiness rate, flying reliability is relevant, task success ratio decomposition model in this case is:

P _rc＝P _fs×R _fx

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability.

Under this decomposition model, the concrete performance that employing average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are carried out the branch timing is as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to emission readiness rate and flying reliability, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=\sqrt{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability.

B. adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to emission readiness rate and flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio, and the task success ratio is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

a+b＝1

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability; A is emission readiness rate shared ratio in the task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio.

C. adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors of influence emission readiness rate and flying reliability to be marked, and score value carried out the relative ratio that analysis-by-synthesis obtains emission readiness rate and flying reliability, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution.Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment.The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[2]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _iBe i item index, index comprises emission readiness rate and flying reliability; ω _iIt is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of every index; r _IjIt is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is an i item index, i=1,2; J is a j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4.

At decomposition model 3), 4) in, what adopt that average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design carry out that the branch timing obtains is the emission readiness rate, need convert launching reliability to by formula.Conversion formula is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fsd}}=R_{\mathrm{fsm}}\×[R_{\mathrm{fsd}}+(1-R_{\mathrm{fsd}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_{\mathrm{fd}}}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})]$

Wherein, P _FsdBe the emission readiness rate that has distributed; R _FsmBe the MISSILE LAUNCHING fiduciary level; R _FsdBe the launching reliability of land equipment at launching site; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT is the average delay time at stop that ensures; t _FdCan be used for time of keeping in repair and waiting for when preparing for emission; E is a natural logarithm.

Wherein, in the desired value described in the step 2: be meant the service index that the expectation equipment reaches, it can satisfy the user demand of equipment, can make equipment reach best efficiency-cost ratio again.

Wherein, in the threshold value described in the step 3: be meant the service index that equipment must reach, it can satisfy the user demand of equipment.

Wherein, be to be proposed through a large amount of tests by U.S. J.T.Duane at the Du An described in the step 3 (Duane) model: product is in reliability growth test, and the cumulative failure rate is for the accumulation test period, convergence straight line on log-log paper, that is:

lnM(t)＝mlnt-lna

Wherein, M (t) is a desired value; T is a test period; A is a threshold value; M is a rate of growth.

Wherein, in the analytical hierarchy process described in the step 4, the excellent preface method of scheme, quality assessment method, its concrete condition is as follows:

(1) analytical hierarchy process: this method is the integrated evaluating method that a kind of qualitative evaluation combines with quantitative evaluation.This method is by setting up hierarchical structure, set up judgment matrix, comprehensively weighing the balance of this three steps realization to scheme.When setting up hierarchical structure, according to the object of being estimated, with the factor grouping that is comprised, each is organized as a level.According to top, the some relevant middle layers and the form of lowermost layer are lined up.The judgment matrix of setting up is to be used for expression at last layer time certain element, the situation of relative importance between the relevant element of this level.At first carrying out the single level ordering when comprehensively weighing calculates for the last layer element according to judgment matrix, the weights of the associated with it element importance of this level, carry out the total ordering of level then and promptly utilize the result of the single preface of all levels in the same level, calculate weights at last layer time this level all elements importance.

(2) the excellent preface method of scheme: this method is that all schemes are carried out once good and bad ordering at each evaluation index, by the calculating to its excellent ordinal number, comprehensively weighs again.

(3) quality assessment method: this method is by analyzing the property value of each scheme to the different quality characteristic, calculate the relative effect value of each scheme then, carrying out the quality balance of scheme then.

(3) advantage of the present invention:

(1) but the present invention considering adequacy, necessity, meet and chosen more complete ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter according to the characteristics of ground-to-ground missile on the principle basis of engineering custom argumentation, designability, verifiability and carry out the quantitative requirement demonstration, changed that parameter in the demonstration technology in the past is imperfect, the indefinite defective of notion of the parameter of carrying;

(2) the present invention is directed to the characteristics of ground-to-ground missile,, provide a kind of science, normalized ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability to require the demonstration method from the determining of the formation of ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter quantitative requirement demonstration, parameter system, index, optimization etc.

Four, description of drawings

Fig. 1 is a process flow diagram of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is * * type guided missile composition diagram;

Fig. 3 is * * type missile equipment system composition diagram;

Fig. 4 is * * type missile age sectional view;

Fig. 5 is * * type missile flight sectional view.

Five, embodiment

It is prerequisite with the essential information of ground-to-ground missile that a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability of the present invention requires the demonstration method, and these essential informations are project verification background and mission requirements, ground-to-ground missile basic condition, operational version, initial guarantee plan, guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad.The content that various information comprises is specific as follows:

1) project verification background and mission requirements are described the development project verification background and the mission task of ground-to-ground missile;

2) the ground-to-ground missile basic condition is described the basic composition and the major function of ground-to-ground missile;

3) operational version information is to prefer definite operational version according to the mission requirements of ground-to-ground missile development or the use of its hypothesis, clear and definite concrete request for utilization, and draft life profile on this basis in detail, and duty cycle, environmental stress and time of being in the various environment are provided quantitative value.Because ground-to-ground missile is undertaken multiple-task in lifetime, must formulate detailed typical mission section.Should select the most representative several tasks to be described when formulating mission profile, these several tasks are the various functions of mulched ground ground guided missile system as far as possible.When describing the typical mission section, should explain the sequential of the variety of event in the whole process of finishing the work, whole process environment variation etc. clear;

4) initial guarantee plan is described the basic maintenance of ground-to-ground missile, guarantee plan;

5) domestic and international similarly guided missile reliability parameter horizontal information is meant and carries out deep investigation and analytical work, understands and grasp the details of domestic and international ground-to-ground missile of the same type, after demonstration is analyzed, selects similar ground-to-ground missile as a reference.

As shown in Figure 1, a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability of the present invention requires the demonstration method, and its step is as follows:

Step 1, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index definitely:, the ground-to-ground missile request for utilization is changed into the index of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter by the essential information of analyzing ground-to-ground missile and the factor that influences ground-to-ground missile reliability level.Ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter adopts technical readiness, standby readiness and task success ratio among the present invention.The employing modelling of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter index or Combat Simulation method or like product analogy method are determined.Ground-to-ground missile technical readiness, standby readiness and task success ratio all can adopt modelling or Combat Simulation method or like product analogy method to determine among the present invention.At first determine the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success when adopting modelling to determine technical readiness, standby readiness and task success ratio by the model of guided missile target kill probability, adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success is decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value and task success ratio then, adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness at last.

Step 2, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index decomposes over the ground: adopt numerical value decomposition method or average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design that technical readiness, standby readiness and the task success ratio of ground-to-ground missile are decomposed mean time between failures (MTBF) of obtaining ground-to-ground missile, Mean Time To Repair, on average ensured delay time at stop (MLDT), launching reliability, flying reliability, the isoparametric index of ignition fiduciary level, be the desired value of dependability parameter.The numerical value decomposition method is adopted in the decomposition of technical readiness and standby readiness, decomposes the mean down time that obtains ground-to-ground missile, mean repair time, on average ensures the delay time at stop.Average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are adopted in the decomposition of task success ratio, decompose the launching reliability, flying reliability, the ignition fiduciary level that obtain ground-to-ground missile.

Step 3, guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely: the dependability parameter threshold value of ground-to-ground missile is the service index that ground-to-ground missile must reach, and it can satisfy the request for utilization of equipment, is to determine minimum foundation that can the reception value.The dependability parameter desired value that obtains according to step 2 adopts Du An (Duane) model guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely.Definite needs based on the reliability index threshold value of Du An (Duane) model carry out following five steps operation: (1) is determined newly to develop the ground-to-ground missile maturity stage.Ground-to-ground missile has the quite a long time from the design typification to the maturity stage, different in size because of different ground-to-ground missiles during this period of time, can determine according to engineering experience; (2) definite factor that influences ground-to-ground missile reliability growth rate.The factor that influences the reliability growth rate of ground-to-ground missile comprises: the complexity of ground-to-ground missile, schedule requirement, technical capability, technology maturity, research fund, army use the back to improve input, army's working strength, development stage testing intensity etc.; (3) adopt simple point system or analytical hierarchy process to calculate the weight coefficient of each factor for reliability growth; (4) utilize judge method carrying out multifactorial evaluation and calculating rate of growth to influence factor; (5) utilize Du An (Duane) modular form to calculate threshold value.

Step 4, guided missile reliability parameter index and expense are weighed over the ground: the invention provides three kinds of diverse ways and weigh, a plurality of ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme are carried out the trade-off analysis of index and expense, thereby determine optimal case.These three kinds of methods are respectively: analytical hierarchy process, the excellent preface method of scheme and quality assessment method.Wherein, the balance of carrying out scheme of (1) analytical hierarchy process is divided into three steps: set up hierarchical structure, set up judgment matrix, comprehensively weigh; (2) the excellent preface method of scheme is that all schemes are carried out once good and bad ordering at each evaluation index, by the calculating to its excellent ordinal number, comprehensively weighs again; (3) quality assessment method is by analyzing the property value of each scheme to the different quality characteristic, calculate the relative effect value of each scheme then, carrying out the quality balance of scheme then.

Step 5, the technical and economic feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground: (1) at first should grasp dependability parameter parameter system and the desired value thereof that this weaponry is put forward when the technical feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground, adopts the method deployment analysis of engineering experience or similar equipment analogy then.(2) analyze of the influence of dependability parameter index during the economic feasibility analysis of guided missile reliability parameter index one by one over the ground, whether can bear economically to determine the dependability parameter index that is proposed to life cycle cost.If think after analyzing through step 5 that ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index in technology or lack feasibility economically, then needs the operation of repeating step 1 to step 5, up to obtaining satisfied result.

Now it is as follows to lift case study on implementation:

Present case with * * the type guided missile is an example, a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability of statement the present invention requires the application of demonstration method.

This case essential information situation is as follows:

(1) project verification background and mission requirements:

For improve * * level of the reliability of type guided missile, maintainability, protection, carry out * * demonstration that type guided missile reliability maintainability protection requires.

(2) ground-to-ground missile basic condition:

The composition of * * type missile equipment system as shown in Figure 3, the composition of guided missile is as shown in Figure 2.

(3) operational version information:

* * type missile equipment system the mode of operation adopts support, and multiple radiation patterns such as highway is motor-driven, railway-highway (containing cross-country) is motor-driven are arranged.* * type missile age section as shown in Figure 4.* * type guided missile mission profile mainly comprises emission preparation section and missile flight section.Wherein, * * type missile flight section is as shown in Figure 5.

(4) initially ensure descriptor:

The maintenance system of * * type guided missile, identical with other ground-to-ground missiles, be divided into three grades of maintenance systems: base level, relaying level, base level.The base level maintenance is born jointly by REPSH repair shop maintenance personal and operator, and main method for maintaining is to change part to repair, tear open the reason of cannibalizing, keep in repair and float, and mainly finishes maintaining and light maintenance.The maintenance of relaying level is born by base repair plant, finishes the comparatively complicated and time-consuming plant equipment and the maintenance job of electronic equipment.Base level maintenance is born by equipment repair factory and equipment manufacture usually, mainly is the processing of finishing equipment overhaul, reequip, overhaul and answering urgent document or dispatch, and equipment manufacture also must be finished required special-purpose zero spare part of missile armament.

(5) domestic and international similar guided missile reliability parameter horizontal information:

To * * similar external certain the type guided missile of type ground-to-ground missile, its part dependability parameter level is as shown in table 1.

The domestic and international similar guided missile part dependability parameter level of table 1

Above * * basis of type guided missile essential information on, carry out * * definite work of type guided missile reliability parameter.

The case implementing procedure is above-mentioned five steps.At present case, step 1 obtains * * type guided missile reliability top layer parameter index is: technical readiness is 0.89, and standby readiness is 0.9, and the task success ratio is 0.7; After step 2, step 3, step 4, step 5, obtained * * the final dependability parameter achievement data of type guided missile reliability parameter, concrete condition is as follows:

Technical readiness P _Tp=0.89;

Standby readiness P _Wp=0.9;

Task success ratio P _Rc=0.7;

Launching reliability R _Fs=0.85;

Flying reliability R _Fx=0.9;

Mean time between failures MTBF=100 hour;

Average guarantee delay time at stop MLDT=2 hour;

Mean repair time MTTR≤40 minutes.

Claims (9)

1. a ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability requires the demonstration method, this method is that the essential information with ground-to-ground missile is a prerequisite, and these essential informations comprise project verification background and mission requirements, ground-to-ground missile basic condition, operational version, initial guarantee plan and guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad; It is characterized in that: the concrete steps of this method are as follows:

Step 1, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index definitely:, the ground-to-ground missile request for utilization is changed into the index of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter by the essential information of analyzing ground-to-ground missile and the factor that influences ground-to-ground missile reliability level; This ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter is meant the dependability parameter that influences ground-to-ground missile usefulness that ground-to-ground missile order root proposes according to user demand, and it includes technical readiness, standby readiness and task success ratio; The index of technical readiness, standby readiness and task success ratio is determined to adopt modelling or Combat Simulation method or like product analogy method to determine according to ground-to-ground missile request for utilization and ground-to-ground missile architectural characteristic;

Step 2, guided missile reliability top layer parameter index decomposes over the ground: the decomposition of ground-to-ground missile reliability top layer parameter index adopts numerical value decomposition method or average distribution system or proportionate allocation or the apportion design of marking to decompose according to actual conditions; This step is decomposed technical readiness, standby readiness and the task success ratio of ground-to-ground missile mean time between failures of obtaining ground-to-ground missile, mean repair time, is on average ensured the index of delay time at stop, launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, is the desired value of dependability parameter;

Step 3, guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely: the dependability parameter desired value that obtains according to step 2 adopts Du An model guided missile reliability parameter threshold value definitely;

Step 4, guided missile reliability parameter index and expense are weighed over the ground: adopt analytical hierarchy process, the excellent preface method of scheme and quality assessment method that a plurality of ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme are carried out the trade-off analysis of index and expense, thereby determine optimum ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index scheme;

Step 5, the technical and economic feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground: (1) at first should grasp dependability parameter system and the desired value thereof that this ground-to-ground missile is put forward when the technical feasibility of guided missile reliability parameter index is analyzed over the ground, adopts the method deployment analysis of engineering experience or like product analogy then; (2) analyze of the influence of dependability parameter index during the economic feasibility analysis of guided missile reliability parameter index one by one over the ground, whether can bear economically to determine the dependability parameter index that is proposed to life cycle cost; If think after analyzing through step 5 that ground-to-ground missile dependability parameter index in technology or lack feasibility economically, then needs to carry out again the operation of step 1 to step 5, up to obtaining satisfied result.

2. a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability according to claim 1 requires the demonstration method, and it is characterized in that: described " essential information " includes: (1) project verification background and mission requirements information: be development project verification background and the mission mission bit stream that is used to describe ground-to-ground missile; (2) ground-to-ground missile basic condition information: the basic composition and the major function that are used to describe ground-to-ground missile; (3) operational version information: be to prefer definite operational version according to the mission requirements of ground-to-ground missile development or the use of its hypothesis, clear and definite concrete request for utilization, and draft life profile on this basis in detail, and duty cycle, environmental stress and time of being in the various environment are provided quantitative value; (4) initial guarantee plan: be to be used to describe the basic maintenance of ground-to-ground missile, guarantee plan; (5) guided missile reliability horizontal information similarly both at home and abroad: be meant and carry out deep investigation and analytical work, understand and grasp the details of domestic and international ground-to-ground missile of the same type, after demonstration is analyzed, select similar ground-to-ground missile as a reference.

3. a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability according to claim 1 requires the demonstration method, it is characterized in that: at the technical readiness described in the step 1, the index of standby readiness and task success ratio is determined method, be to adopt modelling, this method is meant the computation model according to ground-to-ground missile target kill probability, calculate the war preparedness integrity of ground-to-ground missile and the product value of task success, adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success is decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value and task success ratio then, adopt average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness at last; The model that calculates the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success in this modelling is:

$P_1\×P_2=\frac{1-\sqrt[n]{1-W\left(n\right)}}{P_4}$

Wherein, P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂Be the task success ratio; P ₄Be single-shot ground-to-ground missile target kill probability; W (n) launches to same target under identical conditions for n sends out ground-to-ground missile, has the probability of a target kill at least, i.e. the probability of ground-to-ground missile target kill; N is the number of ground-to-ground missile;

Obtaining in this modelling adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation behind the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success is P with the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success ₁* P ₂Be decomposed into war preparedness integrity desired value and task success ratio; Average distribution system, scoring apportion design and proportionate allocation are P to the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success ₁* P ₂Concrete performance when decomposing is as follows:

(a) adopt average distribution system to decompose the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success: this average distribution system is that its apportion model is as follows to war preparedness integrity and the same numerical value of task success distribution:

$P_1=P_2=\sqrt{P_1\×P_2}$

Wherein, P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂Be the task success ratio; P ₁* P ₂The product value of war preparedness integrity and task success;

(b) adopt the scoring apportion design to decompose the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success: this scoring apportion design is under the situation that data lack very much, by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors that influence war preparedness integrity and task success are marked, and score value is carried out analysis-by-synthesis obtain war preparedness integrity and task success relative ratio, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution; Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, work complexity, working time, environmental baseline; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$P_1={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}\×(P_1\×P_2))}^{0.5}$

$P_2={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}\×(P_1\×P_2))}^{0.5}$

In the formula: ${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}},$ i＝1，2

Wherein, P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂Be the task success ratio; P ₁* P ₂The product value of war preparedness integrity and task success; ω ₁Scoring gross score for war preparedness integrity desired value; ω ₂Scoring gross score for the task success ratio; ω _iIt is the scoring gross score of i index; r _IjIt is the score value of j influence factor of i index; I is an i item index; J is a j influence factor;

(c) adopt proportionate allocation to decompose the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success: this proportionate allocation is according to war preparedness integrity and the shared ratio of task success index, is P to the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success ₁* P ₂Distribute, the apportion model of this proportionate allocation is as follows:

P ₁＝a×(P ₁×P ₂)

P ₂＝(1-a)×(P ₁×P ₂)

Wherein, P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; P ₂Be the task success ratio; P ₁* P ₂The product value of war preparedness integrity and task success; A is war preparedness integrity desired value shared ratio in the product value of war preparedness integrity and task success;

Obtain in the modelling adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness after the war preparedness integrity desired value; Concrete performance when adopting average distribution system or scoring apportion design or proportionate allocation that war preparedness integrity desired value is decomposed into technical readiness and standby readiness is as follows:

(a) adopt average distribution system to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this average distribution system is that technical readiness and standby readiness are distributed the numerical value that equates, its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}=P_{\mathrm{wp}}=\sqrt{P_1}$

Wherein, P _TpBe technical readiness; P _WpBe standby readiness; P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value;

(b) adopt the scoring apportion design to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this scoring apportion design is under the situation that data lack very much, by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors of influence technique readiness rate and standby readiness are marked, and score value is carried out analysis-by-synthesis obtain technical readiness and standby readiness relative ratio, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution; Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}\×P_1)}^{0.5}$

$P_{\mathrm{wp}}={(\frac{{\mathrm{\ω}}_2}{{\mathrm{\ω}}_1}\×P_1)}^{0.5}$

In the formula: ${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}},$ i＝1，2

Wherein, P _TpIt is technical readiness; P _WpIt is standby readiness; P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; ω ₁Scoring gross score for technical readiness; ω ₂Scoring gross score for standby readiness; ω _iIt is the scoring gross score of i index; r _IjIt is the score value of j influence factor of i index; I is an i item index; J is a j influence factor;

(c) adopt proportionate allocation to decompose war preparedness integrity desired value: this proportionate allocation is shared ratio in war preparedness integrity desired value according to technical readiness and standby readiness, war preparedness integrity desired value is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _tp＝a×P ₁

P _wp＝(1-a)×P ₁

Wherein, P _TpIt is technical readiness; P _WpIt is standby readiness; P ₁Be war preparedness integrity desired value; A is technical readiness shared ratio in war preparedness integrity desired value.

4. a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability according to claim 1 requires the demonstration method, it is characterized in that: the index in the technical readiness described in the step 1, standby readiness and task success ratio is determined method, be to adopt the Combat Simulation method, this method is by the antagonism emulation of fighting, analyze of the influence of ground-to-ground missile reliability level, draw the technical readiness, standby readiness and the task success ratio that satisfy operational need fighting.

5. a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability according to claim 1 requires the demonstration method, it is characterized in that: the index in the technical readiness described in the step 1, standby readiness and task success ratio is determined method, be to adopt the like product analogy method, this method is by the information data statistical study to the active service ground-to-ground missile, the level that the relevant parameter of analysis active service ground-to-ground missile reaches, thereby technical readiness, standby readiness and the task success ratio of definite ground-to-ground missile.

6. a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability according to claim 1 requires the demonstration method, and it is characterized in that: in the numerical value decomposition method described in the step 2, be the method for decomposition technique readiness rate, the decomposition model of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{tp}}=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T}\×(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T})\×e^{-\frac{t_j}{\mathrm{MTBF}}}+(1-\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T}\×(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{Z}T})\×e^{-\frac{t_j}{\mathrm{MTBF}}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_d}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})$

Wherein, P _TpBe technical readiness; λ _ZBe the store failure rate; T is storage period; t _jBe technology setup time; t _dCan be used for carrying out the time of maintenance job and delay in the technology preparatory stage for armament systems; MTBF is the mean time between failures; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT on average ensures the delay time at stop; E is a natural logarithm;

The concrete implementation step of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

A) determine master data: this master data comprises the store failure rate of ground-to-ground missile, and storage period, technology setup time, time and technical readiness that armament systems can be used for carrying out maintenance job and delay in the technology preparatory stage are P _Tp

B) the given mean time between failures is MTBF and mean repair time to be scope and the change step of MTTR;

C) according to the model of technical readiness, at being each different mean repair time that MTTR calculates P _Tp-MTBF curve;

D) the actual techniques readiness rate value of decomposing as required, calculating in different mean repair times is P under the MTTR _TpThe point of correspondence on the-MTBF curve, obtaining in the predetermined following mean time between failures of technical readiness is MTBF and mean repair time to be the combination of MTTR;

E) according to the domestic and international actual index situation of ground-to-ground missile, from the different mean time between failures be MTBF and mean repair time are the combination of MTTR one group of selection as decomposition value.

7. a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability according to claim 1 requires the demonstration method, it is characterized in that: in the numerical value decomposition method described in the step 2, be the method for decomposing standby readiness, the decomposition model of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{wp}}=e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{T}t}\·e^{-\frac{t_w}{\mathrm{MTBF}}}+(1-e^{-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{T}t}\·e^{-\frac{t_w}{\mathrm{MTBF}}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_{\mathrm{wd}}}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})$

Wherein, P _WpBe standby readiness; λ _TBe the standby crash rate; T is a stand-by time; t _wBe standby setup time; t _WdAllow time of keeping in repair and waiting for when the standby for armament systems; E is a natural logarithm; MBTF is the mean time between failures; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT on average ensures the delay time at stop;

The concrete implementation step of this numerical value decomposition method is as follows:

A) determine master data: this master data comprises the standby crash rate of ground-to-ground missile, stand-by time, and standby setup time, armament systems allow the time and the standby readiness P that keep in repair and wait for when standby _Wp

B) the given mean time between failures is MTBF and mean repair time to be scope and the change step of MTTR;

C) according to the model of standby readiness, at being each different mean repair time that MTTR calculates P _Wp-MTBF curve;

D) the actual standby readiness value of decomposing as required, calculating in different mean repair times is P under the MTTR _WpThe point of correspondence on the-MTBF curve, obtaining in the predetermined following mean time between failures of standby readiness is MTBF and mean repair time to be the combination of MTTR;

E) according to the domestic and international actual index situation of ground-to-ground missile, from the different mean time between failures be MTBF and mean repair time are the combination of MTTR one group of selection as decomposition value.

8. a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability according to claim 1 requires the demonstration method, it is characterized in that: in the average distribution system described in the step 2, proportionate allocation, scoring apportion design, be the method for task resolution success ratio; The decomposition model of task success ratio can be divided into four kinds of decomposition models according to the situation of ground-to-ground missile, and the concrete condition of these four kinds of models is as follows:

When 1) local ground guided missile thought that when launching site can not keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level carries separately, task success ratio and launching reliability, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level were relevant, and task success ratio decomposition model in this case is:

P _rc＝R _fs×R _fx×R _yb

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level;

Under this decomposition model, the concrete performance that employing average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are carried out the branch timing is as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=R_{\mathrm{yb}}=\sqrt[3]{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level;

B. adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level shared ratio in the task success ratio, and the task success ratio is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

R _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

R _yb＝c×P _rc

a+b+c＝1

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level; A is launching reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio; C is for igniting fiduciary level shared ratio in the task success ratio;

C. adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors that influence launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level to be marked, and score value carried out the relative ratio that analysis-by-synthesis obtains launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution; Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[3]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _iBe i item index, index comprises launching reliability, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level; ω _iIt is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of every index; r _IjIt is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is an i item index, i=1,2,3; J is a j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4;

When 2) local ground guided missile thought that when launching site can not keep in repair and ignite fiduciary level does not carry separately, the task success ratio was relevant with launching reliability and flying reliability, and task success ratio decomposition model in this case is:

P _rc＝R _fs×R _fx

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability;

Under this decomposition model, the concrete performance that employing average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are carried out the branch timing is as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to launching reliability and flying reliability, and its apportion model is as follows:

$R_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=\sqrt{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability;

B. adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to launching reliability and flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio, and the task success ratio is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

R _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

a+b＝1

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _FsBe launching reliability; R _FxBe flying reliability; A is launching reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio;

C. adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors that influence launching reliability and flying reliability to be marked, and score value carried out the relative ratio that analysis-by-synthesis obtains launching reliability and flying reliability, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution; Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[2]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _iBe i item index, index comprises launching reliability and flying reliability; ω _iIt is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of every index; r _IjIt is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is an i item index, i=1,2; J is a j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4;

3) local ground guided missile is thought when launching site and can simply be keeped in repair and ignite fiduciary level when carrying separately to uphole equipment, task success ratio and emission readiness rate, flying reliability, ignition fiduciary level are relevant, and task success ratio decomposition model in this case is:

P _rc＝P _fs×R _fx×R _yb

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level;

Under this decomposition model, the concrete performance that employing average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are carried out the branch timing is as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to emission readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=R_{\mathrm{yb}}=\sqrt[3]{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level;

B. adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to emission readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level shared ratio in the task success ratio, and the task success ratio is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

R _yb＝c×P _rc

a+b+c＝1

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability; R _YbFor igniting fiduciary level; A is emission readiness rate shared ratio in the task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio; C is for igniting fiduciary level shared ratio in the task success ratio;

C. adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors of influence emission readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level to be marked, and score value is carried out the analysis-by-synthesis acquisition launch the relative ratio of readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution; Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[3]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _iBe i item index, index comprises emission readiness rate, flying reliability and ignition fiduciary level; ω _iIt is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of every index; r _IjIt is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is an i item index, i=1,2,3; J is a j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4;

4) local ground guided missile is thought when launching site and can simply be keeped in repair and ignite fiduciary level when not carrying separately to uphole equipment, and the task success ratio is with to launch readiness rate relevant with flying reliability, and task success ratio decomposition model in this case is:

P _rc＝P _fs×R _fx

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability;

Under this decomposition model, the concrete performance that employing average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design are carried out the branch timing is as follows:

A. adopt average distribution system: this average distribution system is to distribute same numerical value to emission readiness rate and flying reliability, and its apportion model is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fs}}=R_{\mathrm{fx}}=\sqrt{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxBe flying reliability;

B. adopt proportionate allocation: this proportionate allocation is according to emission readiness rate and flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio, and the task success ratio is distributed, and its apportion model is as follows:

P _fs＝a×P _rc

R _fx＝b×P _rc

a+b＝1

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; P _FsBe the emission readiness rate; R _FxFor flying reliability a is emission readiness rate shared ratio in the task success ratio; B is flying reliability shared ratio in the task success ratio;

C. adopt the scoring apportion design: this scoring apportion design is by experienced demonstration personnel or expert several factors of influence emission readiness rate and flying reliability to be marked, and score value carried out the relative ratio that analysis-by-synthesis obtains emission readiness rate and flying reliability, again according to the relative ratio indicator of distribution; Consider in this scoring apportion design that evaluation factor comprises: importance degree, influence factor, working time, working environment; The apportion model of this scoring apportion design is as follows:

$R_i={\mathrm{\ω}}_i\sqrt[2]{\frac{P_{\mathrm{rc}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}}$

${\mathrm{\ω}}_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{r}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

$\mathrm{\ω}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_i$

Wherein, P _RcBe the task success ratio; R _iBe i index, index comprises emission readiness rate and flying reliability; ω _iIt is the scoring mark of i item index; ω is the scoring mark product value of every index; r _IjIt is the scoring mark of j evaluation factor of i item index; I is an i item index, i=1,2; J is a j evaluation factor, j=1,2,3,4;

At decomposition model 3), 4) in, what adopt that average distribution system or proportionate allocation or scoring apportion design carry out that the branch timing obtains is the emission readiness rate, need convert launching reliability to by formula; Conversion formula is as follows:

$P_{\mathrm{fsd}}=R_{\mathrm{fsm}}\×[R_{\mathrm{fsd}}+(1-R_{\mathrm{fsd}})(1-e^{-\frac{t_{\mathrm{fd}}}{\mathrm{MTTR}+\mathrm{MLDT}}})]$

Wherein, P _FsdBe the emission readiness rate that has distributed; R _FxmBe the MISSILE LAUNCHING fiduciary level; R _FsdBe the launching reliability of land equipment at launching site; MTTR is mean repair time; MLDT is the average delay time at stop that ensures; t _FdCan be used for time of keeping in repair and waiting for when preparing for emission.

9. a kind of ground-to-ground missile Quantitative Reliability according to claim 1 requires the demonstration method, and it is characterized in that: in the analytical hierarchy process described in the step 4, the excellent preface method of scheme, quality assessment method, its concrete condition is as follows:

(1) analytical hierarchy process: this method is the integrated evaluating method that a kind of qualitative evaluation combines with quantitative evaluation; This method is by setting up hierarchical structure, set up judgment matrix, comprehensively weighing the balance of this three steps realization to scheme; When setting up hierarchical structure, according to the object of being estimated, with the factor grouping that is comprised, each is organized as a level; According to top, the relevant middle layer and the form of lowermost layer are lined up.The judgment matrix of setting up is to be used for expression at last layer time certain element, the situation of relative importance between the relevant element of this level; At first carrying out the single level ordering when comprehensively weighing calculates for the last layer element according to judgment matrix, the weights of the associated with it element importance of this level, carry out the total ordering of level then and promptly utilize the result of the single preface of all levels in the same level, calculate weights at last layer time this level all elements importance;

(2) the excellent preface method of scheme: this method is that all schemes are carried out once good and bad ordering at each evaluation index, by the calculating to its excellent ordinal number, comprehensively weighs again;

(3) quality assessment method: this method is by analyzing the property value of each scheme to the different quality characteristic, calculate the relative effect value of each scheme then, carrying out the quality balance of scheme then.

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