CN101185096A

CN101185096A - Financial activity based on tropical weather events

Info

Publication number: CN101185096A
Application number: CNA2005800482821A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 肯尼思·A·霍罗威茨
Original assignee: Individual
Current assignee: Individual
Priority date: 2004-12-21
Filing date: 2005-12-21
Publication date: 2008-05-21
Also published as: CN101147170A; ZA200706046B; ZA200706044B

Abstract

A financial activity network includes a central managing system connected to a plurality of participant terminals. Rules governing operation of the financial activity are stored for future reference. A participant provides investment information such as a map location for the predicted strike by the natural peril event and, optionally, one or more secondary parameters relating to the natural peril event, such as the time interval between the time of investment and the time of an event strike and/or the severity of the event strike according to an established scale. In one example, an external objective independent information source is consulted, with the external objective independent information source providing monitoring, interpretation and derived determination of parameters pertaining to the natural peril event. Methods and articles of manufacture are also disclosed.

Description

Finance activities based on tropical weather events

The cross reference of related application

The application requires the rights and interests of the U.S. Provisional Patent Application submitted on Dec 21st, 2004 number 60/637784, and described application is incorporated by reference in this text examines.

Background of invention

Technical field

The application relates to finance activities, relate in particular to such behavior, wherein can pay the finance repayment to the prediction of abiogenous tropical weather events, and such incident monitors and writes down (documented) by oracle independently especially based on the participant.

Background technology

Usually, the natural event such as hurricane and other tropical weather system comprise that enough energy apply potentially because the significant finance that the destruction to property causes is born.A characteristic of such disaster is that they can't be predicted with determinacy accurately, even the seriousness that takes place in incident season (event season) and the accurate incident and/or the duration of number of times or incident.For example, the natural event of these types comprises earthquake, wind spout and Hurricane, and this is a term of giving all the circulation weather systems on the tropical waters (being Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Pacific what this was concerned about especially).If enough powerful, then Hurricane comprises and is called as " hurricane " tropical weather system.The Hurricane that intensity increases so that become hurricane originates from the ocean, and can land and advance along the land part in its dissipation or before returning the ocean.Typically, house property owner and business insurance policy comprise can reduce or remit clause, and its scope is 2% to 15% of house or a building site value.In addition, these identical policies do not cover any zone of house or firm outside, for example view, exterior lighting equipment, dock and fence etc.Often, the property owner does not have enough flood insurances, or has other and ignore or inadequate insurance coverage, even and in the hurricane of minimum level, this also can cause catastrophic property loss.Is inundatory such as being positioned at heavy losses coastal and that those properties owner remote areas is suffered for those property owners that can't bear self-insurance.Insurance company provides very big help for these people, but has caused high relatively premium of insurance by the economic loss that the hurricane of improper activity is caused season.In order to determine that on the basis of carrying out the insurance protection is available for the individual, various rules and system have been formulated.Yet still having a large amount of financial burden such as the deductible amount of height and represent must be by the eliminating project of the direct failure costs of bearing of individual.In addition, because the uncontrollable many factors of owner, for example with the extension that trouble shooter's stroke, requirement are handled and government's affirmation is associated, the acquisition insurance is relieved needs suitable extension.When taking place to destroy on a large scale, these delay to prolong considerably.

Seem existing problem not enough, obtained prediction, the storm activity that increases in the past few years may continue to appear at the Atlantic Ocean in ensuing 15 to 20 years.Prediction in 2006 is the storm that 17 names will take place, and can become hurricane wherein 9 times, and wherein 5 times are considered to develop into wind speed and are per hour 111 miles or tempest faster.By relatively,, reported the storm of 26 names in 2005.In the past in 13 tempests that form in 2 years, attacked the U.S. 7 times, yet, according to historical average level, in per 3 storms of being reported, for once can be regarded as " greatly " storm.

Except the weather seriousness that increases, other factor also is cited as the reason of unexpected large-scale destruction assessment.For example, what obtained assessing is, to the year two thousand twenty, single Miami storm can cause 5,000 hundred million catastrophic loss---several times of the loss that caused by the Katrina hurricane.This is owing to the increase of the needed installed property development of the population that increases, and the purchasing power of being brought together with more individual wealth increases.These assessments also do not comprise inflationary any consideration.

Many other lessons have been obtained from the Katrina hurricane.For example, calculate with dollars in 2004, the large-scale Miami hurricane of nineteen twenty-six has caused about 700,000,000 6 thousand ten thousand dollars loss.Surprisingly, if now current hurricane repeats once (same magnitude is along same track) again, estimated loss will be greatly to 1,300 hundred million dollars, and this largely is because this regional population expansion.At the year two thousand twenty, estimate that the loss from same hurricane can be 5,000 hundred million dollars.Except the main loss factor such as property loss, natural event also directly causes other factor.For example, FEMA (FEMA) has run into exceptional hardship on the problem that the temporary home is provided for the disaster victim.Unemployment has widely aggravated the loss of dwelling house, has further delayed economical and individual's recovery.For example, FEMA related in 2005 the highest about 85000 rooms hotel plan spent 300,012,500 dollars of federal governments.

Summary of the invention

Present invention relates in general to the finance activities between supplier and a plurality of participant be managed based on the natural event such as hurricane or Hurricane or other tropical weather events.

Hurricane is in the low pressure weather system of ocean and low latitudes formation, begins with low-energy relatively tropical depression.Along with the increase of storm energy, tropical depression begin to show the rotation or the round-robin synoptic model, and if storm intensity enough, it just is classified as Hurricane.Hurricane comprises " tropical storm ", but the strongest Hurricane is called as (basin, ocean that takes place according to their) " hurricane ", " typhoon " or " whirlwind " simply.According to The National Hurricane Center, " hurricane " is the title that betides the Hurricane in the basin, ocean that is commonly called the Atlantic Ocean, and it is to define by specific minimum windspeed." Hurricane " is the common name that is used to form in the high strength low-pressure system in the torrid zone, and meets the standard of high relatively maximum sustained wind speed.The intensity of hurricane is measured according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.

In the finance activities between supplier and a plurality of participant, the participant is given the chance that natural event is predicted will take place future, if and the result of their prediction and natural event is complementary, then they also are given the chance of coming investment funds (funds) with the expectation to its investment repayment.For example, described finance activities can and be landed track based on the landing of hurricane.The participant who participates in described finance activities should submit to them to the landing point of following hurricane and/or along the prediction of landing the point of track.If their prediction and observed natural event are complementary, investor then success, that qualify will share the fund pond that investment funds is accumulated.Preferably, observe described natural event by the objective independent sources of information in outside, its observation, discovery and conclusion are available to described finance activities.Described finance activities can be taked various form, comprises the recreation of game of chance, skill, the property value protection, derives from the security interests and participates in the secondary transaction of the participant of described finance activities to financial asset.

One embodiment of the present invention relate to a kind of method that finance activities between supplier and a plurality of participant is managed based on tropical weather events.At first, adopt a kind of method to obtain the predicted data that a plurality of participants predict the outcome to tropical weather events.Then, adopt a kind of method to obtain described a plurality of participants' investment funds, adopt a kind of method described a plurality of participants' of accumulation in total pond (pool) fund subsequently, and adopt a kind of method to obtain the external information relevant with tropical weather events from outside independent sources of information.Then adopt a kind of method that described a plurality of participants' predicted data and described external information are compared,, adopt a kind of method from described pond, to distribute fund subsequently to participant with matching result to determine whether to exist the result of coupling.

Another embodiment of the present invention relates to the method that a kind of participant of being used for participates in finance activities, described finance activities comprises a plurality of other participants, managed based on tropical weather events by the supplier, wherein said participant adopts a kind of method to receive the information of relevant tropical weather events.Then, described participant adopts a kind of method to provide predicted data and investment funds about tropical weather events result, described subsequently participant to adopt a kind of method obtains relevant participant from described supplier predicted data and indication from the matching result of the comparison of the tropical weather events data of outside independent sources of information.At last, described participant adopts a kind of method to receive fund from total pond, and described total pond comprises described investor's investment funds at least in part.

In another embodiment, the present invention relates to a kind of system that finance activities is managed based on tropical weather events, described system comprises the finance activities that is used to promote between supplier and a plurality of participant, is used for receiving outside tropical weather events information and the finance activities module of finance activities information being provided to described a plurality of participants from outside independent sources of information.Communication module is provided to be used for communicate between finance activities module and outside independent sources of information, thereby be used for receiving outside tropical weather events from described outside independent sources of information, and described communication module further provides the communication between described finance activities module and the described a plurality of participant, comes from the predicted data of described a plurality of participants' receptions about tropical weather events.The tropical weather events information of predicted data and described outside that comparison module is provided to be used for described a plurality of participants compares, and is used for providing to described a plurality of users the indication of matching result; And distribution module is used for distributing fund from the shared pond of described a plurality of participants' fund to the participant with matching result from collecting.If desired, various communication function can be grouped in one or more communication units of carrying out one or more communication tasks.

In another embodiment of the present invention, relate to a kind of goods that comprise machine readable media, described machine readable media makes computer system manage the finance activities between supplier and a plurality of participant based on tropical weather events.Manage comprising the finance activities that is used between supplier and a plurality of participant, be used for receiving outside tropical weather events information and the module of finance activities information being provided to described a plurality of participants from outside independent sources of information.Also comprise the module that is used to manage the communication activity that between finance activities module and outside independent sources of information, communicates, be used for receiving tropical weather events information from described outside independent sources of information; And be used for communication activity is managed, between finance activities module and described a plurality of participant, communicate being used for, with the module of the predicted data that receives relevant tropical weather events from described a plurality of participants.A module is provided to be used for described a plurality of participants' the predicted data and the indication of tropical weather events generation are compared; An and module; it is used for communication activity is managed; between finance activities module and described a plurality of participant, further communicate by letter being used for; so that provide the indication of matching result for described a plurality of participants based on the matching result of described comparison step, and will be from collecting the fund part of from described a plurality of participants' shared pond, paying to the participant's indication that has from the protection result of described comparison step.

On the one hand, the present invention can be used as feasible solution economic and that finance is destroyed, described economy and financial destroying infection citizen and government and be caused by abiogenous disaster (for example hurricane).The present invention can be used to provide and not use government or public's fund, thereby does not need the taxpayer to invest to replenish the economic solution of government reserve.In one aspect, the present invention can be used to only to use the fund that is provided by privately owned entity to increase and be used for government's finance relief that disaster event takes place.

Description of drawings

The feature of illustrative embodiments of the present invention will become clear by instructions, claim and accompanying drawing, wherein:

Fig. 1 implements schematically showing of financial activity network of the present invention;

Fig. 2 implements schematically showing of finance activities system of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is schematically showing of first participant's terminal;

Fig. 4 is schematically showing of second participant's terminal;

Fig. 5 is schematically showing of the point of purchase (point-of-purchase) participant's terminal;

Fig. 6 is schematically showing of independent participant's terminal;

Fig. 7 is schematically showing of first data presentation;

Fig. 8 a-8f is schematically showing of a series of screen displays;

Fig. 9-12 comprises the indicative flowchart of an example representing system operation jointly;

Figure 13-the 18th, enforcement is according to the pattern description of the data screen of the finance activities of a principle of the present invention;

Figure 19 is the schematic representation of expression to the processing of the unit area of addressing in exemplary finance activities;

Figure 20 is before natural event takes place, and what concern between the date of shared price and participation finance activities schematically shows;

Figure 21 illustrates the form that illustrative is shared the example of price;

Figure 22 is the form that Poisson probability and other probability are shown;

Figure 23 is the form that is illustrated in balance (trade-off) related in the number of the finance activities that selection will carry out.

Embodiment

Certainly, allow multi-form embodiment in this disclosed invention.Shown in the drawings and be the preferred embodiments of the present invention what next describe in detail.Yet, it being understood that current disclosing is example of the present invention, and be not that the present invention is defined in the embodiment that is given an example.

For convenience of description, realize financial activity network of the present invention and other system, goods and equipment, following be to be described with their habitual rigging positions shown in the accompanying drawings, and as used herein such as higher, lower, level, term reference such as vertical should habitual position.Yet, can with make, transport, sell or use described system, goods and equipment in this description and shown different orientation.

Introduction

Online execution has been proposed in various finance activitiess.These activities can be divided in many different modes, for example gambling and non-gambling activities.Recreation or gambling system provide the sense organ of traditional gambling activities in online, the Internet-based emulation tradition gambling activities in the program of software for the user.Such gambling modification has been extended in the unconventional game of chance of experiencing based on any essence known to the mankind.Although ludic activity can be received substantial interests from enforcement of the present invention, the present invention also can be used to skill recreation and non-gambling financial transaction.

In one example, the present invention pays close attention to the finance activities based on the skill recreation, wherein the participant handles historical and other data, and applied science principle and the analysis skill that obtained, reaches that informed and relevant to the prediction of abiogenous activity in future result.In one example, the participant carries out capital investment based on one or more results that inform, thereby places the shared pond of therefrom paying, for example, based on their accuracy for predicting, the rank of time and details.

In one example, the present invention also pays close attention to the traditional financial activity outside the gambling.More specifically, in one example, the present invention pays close attention to and distributes and manage collecting fund from the participant, and described participant promptly wishes unpredictable but potential calamitous financially to bear the investor who compensates to what the property loss owing to natural event caused.In one example, the finance activities of these types is based on participant's property interest.The financial investment of even now is accompanied by the risk physical causes of repayment amount and expectation, but on behalf of the gambling activities this point, such financial investment obtained long-term approval.

Live in for those and (for example to be easy to cause its property interest, house, firm, lease and share vacation (vacation shares) etc.) grievous injury natural event the specific geographical area or find himself to be in the people in such zone, the present invention seeks in the application that is able to aspect their loss of compensation immediately.In one example, the present invention pays close attention to recover damage under the situation that does not have government interference.The example of the natural event that the present invention considered comprises does not have the artificial origin and abiogenous phenomenon, for example the tropical weather system such as hurricane and other tropical weather events.

The prerequisite of finance activities is that the investor can study in individual's naturally-occurring activity to known initiatively, and makes the prediction of the activity that relevant particular season and time will take place.The repayment of investment to them can be paid the investor after the end of the year or each natural event finish, the specific factor of prediction accuracy such as them, investment and the natural event time quantum between taking place is depended in described repayment, and the skilled use of other resource that can use the statistic law set up and investor.The energy and time that the activity of research nature is spent helps to improve the accuracy that is given a forecast.

Outside objective information source

In one example, the present invention has merged the third party who does not independently pay close attention to that conclusion, discovery and the report in one or more outside objective informations source, described outside objective information source for example provide public's available information and conclusion.Supplier and/or participant that term " outside " and " independence " refer to finance activities are the entities that separates.In one example, outside objective information source provides the information (in one example, represent a indication that defined natural event taken place, in another example, represent a indication that defined natural event finished) relevant with natural event.In another example, described outside objective information source provides the natural event data, and the storm that for example is derived from the ocean lands or and lands the point of track.

In one example, the present invention is incorporated in the finance activities, based on the independent objective information of the abiogenous incident of being studied by described outside objective information source (and, in an example, for the public can use).In one example, pay close attention to the prediction of natural event activity, and before described activity has taken place and/or finished, carry out financial investment by the finance activities that the present invention considered.According to the result finance activities success, coupling count or the distribution of other numerical value or payment can be based on a plurality of factors, wherein some of described a plurality of factors can be determined by outside objective information source.Example comprises the timing (for example incident finishes before by amount of given leading time of investor (lead time)) of the seriousness measured of natural event, the correlative detail that natural event takes place (for example point or the path on its contact land) and participant's investment.

In many examples, outside objective independent sources of information depends on it in research, and measure the natural event phenomenon and reach a conclusion according to the data of collecting by natural event in technical skill.Often, for the public and other people can with report comprise conclusion and the inference that is drawn by expert mechanism, it has exceeded the only association of the observed fact.According to an aspect of the present invention, the source of information (for example when and where of natural event generation) outside the supplier of described finance activities as the key that realizes finance activities obtains.

As will seeing, usually preferably in the identity (identity) in rule database or otherwise pre-defined described outside objective information source at this.In one example, the objective independent sources of information in described outside perhaps at least to the individual that might participate in described finance activities, provides the available fact and conclusion usually to the public.By this way, interestingly participate in that finance activities individual and those people that participated in described finance activities can be independent of described finance activities and the process that monitors natural event.In one example, the present invention's imagination, the participant of finance activities can easily obtain expert info and by the technical information of strengthening technical ability, strengthen the motivation that the participant participates in described finance activities with the probability of bigger enjoyment successful result thus from the source that is independent of described finance activities.Special herein interest is, although the area that is subjected to destructive natural event known to living in but can not obtain the property owner of enough assurances.Such property owner will be interested in to obtain to predict the ability of natural event, thereby can their property interest of better protection and compensation unforeseen loss.

The example of outside objective independent sources of information comprises the pre-measured center of the The National Hurricane Center and the torrid zone of tropical hurricane and other tropical storm.

Low pressure torrid zone weather system or the storm that starts from the ocean begin with low-energy relatively thunderstorm.If the moving area of thunderstorm in the torrid zone kept its identity 24 hours or be more of a specified duration, then described weather system is called as " tropical disturbance (tropical disturbance) ".If described weather system shows rotation or round-robin synoptic model, then be called as Hurricane.If its maximum sustained wind speed is no more than per hour 38 miles, then the Hurricane of minimum energy is called as " tropical depression ".Be in per hour 39 to 73 miles weather system for maximum sustained wind speed, it is called as " tropical storm ".The strongest weather system then is called as " hurricane " or " typhoon ".

According to The National Hurricane Center, " hurricane " is a title of Hurricane, and it betides the basin, ocean that is commonly called the Atlantic Ocean, and defines with per hour 74 miles or more maximum sustained wind speed." Hurricane " is the common name that is used to form in the low-pressure system that shows revolving property in the torrid zone, and meets the standard of high relatively maximum sustained wind speed.The intensity of hurricane is measured (classification 1 to 5) according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Well-knownly be, hurricane and the less tropical depression of storm in being formed at the ocean, relevant with weather there various factors cooperation forms the low pressure weather system and provides energy for it.Described weather system is then passed through the ocean along uncertain route.Interestedly herein be, thereby the intensity increase that shows the weather system of circulation behavior develops into hurricane, described hurricane is advanced and is landed with durection component westwards usually, perhaps along clear and definite geographic area contact (contact) property, described clear and definite geographic area is the east coast of Canada, the U.S., Mexico and South America for example, and is positioned at the island on the route of advancing to those land.The intensity that is called as the storm type of " hurricane " can change, and freely advances along their own unique route or " tracks " usually.Hurricane is by the Independent Expert mechanism observation of the U.S. government of The National Hurricane Center's (example in outside objective information source) and so on, the Independent Expert mechanism of described U.S. government carefully writes down, analyzes and deliver subsequently report, result and conclusion, and described report, result and conclusion are available to the public.

Hurricane provides power by the heat energy of ocean and the energy in the atmosphere.Say on the ordinary meaning that hurricane is guided by trade wind eastwards.Around its center (core or " eye "), wind speed accelerates at a high speed.These wind with energy move to have replaced to ocean interior with the onshore and move, and known to it produces wind spout and causes fierce rainfall and flood.For example, in the Atlantic Ocean, 1886 to 1998 according to statistics, 8.6 tropical storms are arranged.Wherein, according to statistics 5.0 times be hurricane.The above-mentioned aspect of natural event can be used for rule database or program or other structure, manages the operation of finance activities.

Satisfy at those as early as possible that to define on the natural event that described finance activities considers to require be important.For example, the hurricane considered of described finance activities can only be restricted to the hurricane that carries out the land contact or have minimum strength.In one example, when public member may have those definition that will consider with finance activities during different substituting definition, it is important that the natural event that described finance activities is considered defines.For example may not fall into " optimum trajectory " or have among other report (data that adopt according to one of possible working rule) that outside independent objective information source (for example NHC/TPC) issued the participant who has suffered loss during the Hurricane.Opposite with common expectation, particular participant may be owing to suffering a loss from the spontaneous phenomenon that is in outside the interested tropical incident of described finance activities.

The example of finance activities model

The present invention imagines the dissimilar finance activities of enforcement, typically, and between one or more participants of finance activities supplier and described finance activities.The different models of the finance activities that principle according to the present invention is contemplated comprise:

1. lottery ticket or other game of chance are for example by those activities that country or local government monitored.

2. skill recreation, preferably wherein the participant has to confirm the level of skill relevant with interested natural event.

3. property value protection, particularly such finance activities wherein based on some indications of the proprietary of participant in the geographic area that described finance activities covered, is screened the participant who is fit to participate in described finance activities.

4. derive from the finance activities of type of transaction, for example pay close attention to the activity of deriving from security interests, it is typically monitored by safety and the transaction council or other supervision group, Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (independent agency of U.S. government) for example, New York Stock Exchange, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Iowa electronic market or the like.

5. by the secondary transaction of the one or more financial asset that the participant initiated in the above-mentioned finance activities, particularly the secondary between the participant of ongoing finance activities and the third party of hope and described participant's direct dealing (rather than finance obtains the supplier) is concluded the business.Described finance activities supplier can require described secondary transaction to register, or wherein each side is carried out other control, comprises the transaction of assisting to carry out between two or more participants or the non-participant, for example to the registration of mode of doing business.

6. towards (price-oriented) of price competition, preferentially be embodied in the skill recreation, wherein the participant need pay " admission fee " and joins in the skill competition with other participant.Begin to pre-determine distribution or " bonus " in competition, and it is not influenced by variable factor can thus to the participant who qualifies.Yet, if desired, described " admission fee " can by variable factor (for example with investment and event result between those relevant factors of the time interval) adjust, and determine greatly the probability of successful result about the time of investment.

Financial activity network

Now from Fig. 1-4 beginning with reference to the accompanying drawings, finance activities system 100 in one example adopts usually the form by 10 represented financial activity network.In one example, network 10 comprises the center management system 12 that is connected to a plurality of participant's terminal 14-18.For example, described terminal can comprise in fact can be with any device that utilize workstation to communicate, and described workstation for example is that network or other computing machine (comprising computed table, portable computer, kneetop computer or large scale computer computer, data terminal, unintelligent terminal, personal digital assistant, cell phone) or other have the electronic installation of communication capacity.The present invention it is envisaged for, and during given here all were described, " computing machine " was meant the computer system that comprises one or more calculation elements.

Be schematically shown as Fig. 1, each participant's terminal via communications network element 15 directly and center management system 12 communicate, thereby allow to conclude the business simultaneously and data transmission.The configuration of other type also is possible.For example, described center management system and a plurality of participant's communication between terminals can be used current known any communication technology in fact.Geographical space between described center management system and a plurality of participant's terminal can have any required scope in fact.For example, whole network 10 can be positioned at single room, perhaps is positioned at single buildings or building complex or campus.

As seeing, can carry out finance activities here according to different models.A model is paid close attention to the finance activities of deriving from type of transaction, and for example those pay close attention to the activity of deriving from security interests.In such finance activities, center management system 12 preferably includes the returning system that communicates by letter with transaction system.Preferably, before being managed with transaction, participant's transaction manages by described returning system.If desired, in such finance activities, a plurality of participants directly and under the transaction system situation of concluding the business, can omit described returning system.If desired, described center management system can be integrated with in the described transaction system, perhaps provides outside described transaction system.

As selection, if necessary, financial activity network 10 can be positioned at the whole nation or each international place.As a further alternative, described financial activity network can present in any form, and for example can use electric wire, cable or radio parts.Network 10 can be configured to open connect or for example internet, wide area network, telephone network, satellite network, at the network of gauze or the convenient net of closed circuit television network or similar inside and so on.Network 10 can also adopt the form of ether configuration, token ring, token bus or other any configuration that is suitable for communicating by letter, or can connect workstation, particularly comprises the configuration of the workstation of one or more data handling machines.

The present invention clearly imagines finance activities and can carry out in this locality, state, federation, country or international boundary, perhaps crosses over these borders and carries out, but be not necessary.For example, a plurality of participant's terminals can be positioned at one or more borders, as with the Administrative boundaries of center management system different Administrative boundaries.As another example, though described center management system and a plurality of participant's terminal are positioned at given border (as given Administrative boundaries), described center management system can communicate with the objective independent sources of information in outside, outside credit institution or other mechanism that is positioned at one or more different administration or geographical frontier.

Described a plurality of terminal can comprise a kind of in current known many different types of electronic installation, for example, the standalone unit that comprises programmable calculator, phone, the unit such as ATM, TV or set top box unit, credit card reader, call box terminal, point of purchase Register or the recreation of similar amusement corridor.Described a plurality of terminal preferably includes and is suitable for receiving from participant's the purchase request or the input media of other data, for example is used for obtaining from businessman those devices of commodity and/or service by the buyer.Described input media can adopt many forms, for example comprises key plate, keyboard touch-screen or mouse, perhaps telechiric device, contactless payment system or fingerprint or other bioassay system.As described, contemplated system, goods and the evaluation method selecting optimal equipment ground of the present invention comprises digital device, but also can comprise simulation or mixed electronic or non-electronic installation.

System equipment

Turn to Fig. 2, finance activities system 100 comprises the system equipment 13 of realizing center management system 12 shown in Figure 1.In one example, system equipment 13 comprises one or more memory storages 20, one or more processor 22 and one or more interface unit 24.In one example, processor 22 comprises CPU (central processing unit) (" CPU ").Under the control of the operating system of using one or more system programs 37, processor 22 is carried out one or more instructions of one or more programs 30.In one example, as the skilled person will appreciate, program 30 comprises one or more subroutines and one or more variable.In one example, as said, memory storage 20 comprises at least one recordable data storage medium example.Memory storage 20 stored programmes 30, one or more databases 32 and one or more data file 34.

In one example, interface unit 24 comprises graphic user interface (" GUI ").In one example, interface unit 24 allows ISP or other user 38 to carry out one or more programs 30.In one example, program 30 comprises one or more subroutines, carries out finance activities method described herein and operation.In one example, program 30 comprises one or more subroutines, comes the principle of supporting described finance activities operation and the information of others are collected, announce, explained or handle.In another example, program 30 comprises one or more subroutines that are used to implement the working rule of described finance activities.

In another example, interface unit 24 allows one or more results of user's 38 checking routines 30, and perhaps the one or more results with checking routine 30 interact.In another example again, interface unit 24 allows the one or more input values or the operating parameter of users' 38 setting programs 30.In preferred embodiment shown in Figure 2, interface unit 24 comprises display device 42 and the data input device 44 that allows user 38 that center management system is set according to required Action Target.Utilize interface unit 24, the user can visit, read or writing program 30, database 32 and data file 34.

Included communication port 50 utilizes terminal 14-18 that two-way communication is provided in the equipment 13 of realizing center management system 12.Communication port 50 can be used any communication protocol, data layout and current employed other systematism in fact, communicate by letter or other contents known.The communication network that is adopted between described center management system and a plurality of participant's terminal preferably includes the interactive device that adopts any suitable form usually.

In one example, finance activities system 100 comprises a plurality of parts, the soft machine parts of for example one or more electronic units, hardware component and computing machine.In finance activities system 100, many such parts can merge or separate.Will recognize that as those skilled in the art the example components of finance activities system 100 adopts and/or comprises one group and/or a series of computer instruction that utilizes multiple computerese to write or implemented.For illustrative effect, direction that in one example, that finance activities system 100 comprises is any (for example, level, inclination or vertical) utilizes herein description and diagrammatic sketch that an exemplary direction of finance activities system 100 is described.

In one example, finance activities system 100 adopts one or more machines (for example, computing machine) readable (after this " computer-readable ") signal bearing medium.The storage of described computer-readable signal bearing medium is used to carry out software, firmware and/or the assembly language of one or more parts of one or more embodiment of the present invention.The example that is used for the described computer-readable signal bearing medium of finance activities system 100 comprises the memory unit such as one or more memory storages 20.In one example, the described computer-readable signal bearing medium that is used for finance activities system 100 can comprise the one or more of magnetic, electricity, optics, biological and data storage medium atom.For example, described computer-readable signal bearing medium can comprise floppy disk, tape, CD-ROM, DVD-ROM, hard disk drive and electronic memory.In another example, described computer-readable signal bearing medium comprises the modulated carrier signal via Network Transmission, described network comprises finance activities system 100 or is coupled to form with it, for example, one or more in telephone network, LAN (Local Area Network) (" LAN "), wide area network (" WAN "), internet and the wireless network.

Data structure

With reference to figure 2-4, in one example, database 32 comprises participant database, keeper or system database, credit supplier's database, storm monitor database, rule database and propelling data storehouse (push database).Described credit supplier's database comprises credit supplier tabulation and method of payment that they accept, and the credit relevant information of any kind, for example offers the authorization code so that the acceptable transaction of credit supplier is authorized of businessman etc. usually.Described credit supplier's database can also comprise other Financial Information relevant with the credit supplier, for example described credit supplier's identification number or accounts information.In a preferred embodiment, in one aspect, the system manager provides with businessman and commodity is provided and/or serves similar service to the participant.If desired, described system manager can comprise the person of reselling of commodity and service (for example privately owned weather forecast and schema mapping or Weather information, and relative map, form and other material).

Described participant database is safeguarded the tabulation of the personal financial information that a plurality of participants are relevant with them.Described participant database is stored one group of individual's method of payment, described individual method of payment utilizes the transaction processing service to register by the participant, in a preferred embodiment, described transaction processing service is adopted as the regulative mode (accommodation) to the participant by the system manager.Described participant database further comprises the information of participating in the qualification of finance activities about the participant.In a preferred embodiment, system manager's rule relevant of adopting known screening service to carry out to be put down in writing with participating in restriction.For example, the system manager can select to carry out the requirement of official of government, reduce or limit start from certain areas or with the transaction that relates to certain areas, wherein those areas are subjected to the constraint of evacuation orders (evacuation order) or one or more legal restrictions.Further details about exemplary screening service is provided in the U.S. Patent application 6508710 of submission on January 21st, 2003, and its disclosure is incorporated by reference in this text to be examined.

The interested storm activity of described storm monitor database track participant.For example, comprise the storm that does not also have still might form hurricane that is moving.If desired, can make the relevant historical data of preceding with it storm system is available to the participant, or on unconfined basis, perhaps needs the participant to pay extra-pay.

Described administrator data storehouse comprises required data and the out of Memory of the described finance activities of operation.For example, comprise ongoing " in real time " or " moving " participant total number, all investment funds summation, share other participant's that participant's prediction selects number and by fund amount that described other participant invested.If desired, described administrator data storehouse can also comprise the enforcement assessment of the payment amount of selecting corresponding to participant's prediction, supposes that described selection is proved to be accurately.Described administrator data storehouse can also comprise the tabulation of known users, and described user is under an embargo and participates in or be limited the participation activity.If desired, this information can be contained in the separate databases.And described administrator data storehouse preferably comprises participation statistics and statistics of finances, and this helps providing the working expense assessment of renewal for operating described finance activities.If desired, can adjust the fluctuation of control and management expense about the participant in future.

Described rule database comprises rule and other principle of the operation that is used for described finance activities.Described rule database comprises one group " rule " or principle, it (for example manages ongoing finance activities with specific or general fashion, the rule of definition authority of office mechanism or outside objective independent sources of information, the objective independent sources of information in described outside is that final actual decision or conclusion will rely on).The example of such authority of office mechanism comprises the technocracy mechanism that is responsible for the monitoring natural event.Described rule also comprises qualification requirement, personal finance payment requirement, and the slipstick of influence payment for example time or final term.

Described rule can be all or part of public (that is being available to the participant) or privately owned (that is, those people that only system manager authorized are available).In one example, described rule database is also managed the business process of the particular aspects of described finance activities.For example, in one example, described rule comprise about the outside objective independent sources of information of the definition of the natural event that will consider by described finance activities, management information and the decision relevant with the natural event that in the business process of described finance activities, will rely on,, the parameter that is associated with described natural event, particularly those are used to define the parameter of specific natural event uniquely and are used for determining that remuneration is counted or the parameter of other value.

If desired, about participant's remuneration count or other value can " be hidden " or be incorporated in the calculating, and need not significantly with reference in expression.In another example, described rule database includes the definition that qualification participates in those participants of described finance activities, and the definition that has final contestant's qualification (" victor ") or obtain those participants of remuneration qualification.In another example, described rule database comprises the operating principle of the fund transaction between the participant who manages described finance activities and qualify.Described rule database can also manage the visit about the customizing messages of described finance activities the participant, the individual number that described customizing messages for example participates in, the current average or maximum financial investment of carrying out and current rough summation for the collected fund of interested incident.

In another example, described rule database can comprise the operating principle that relates to safety and public interest consideration.For example, described rule database can provide the operation automatic pause to prepare to evacuate specific area in the public announcement of evacuation orders or recommendation.It is optionally movable that described rule database can provide based on participant's position.For example, the time-out of finance activities can only limit to issue those countries and regions of government's safety warning, and allows those areas that not influenced by government's warning to proceed finance activities.

Described promotion database includes the information that helps to generate interests and encourage the participation activity.For example, promote the nearest indication that database can comprise the storm system that official is admitted, this can become the candidate of following investment opportunity.Promote brief analysis and/or statistics that database can also comprise ongoing or nearest natural event.The promotion data of varying number can be set up according to predefined " triggering grade " by computer program with different promotion participant lists, and for example, described " triggering grade " be storm position, intensity and speed for example.Described promotion database can also comprise about promoting the working rule of data, for example promote the local zone time that data are sent out or are not sent out therebetween.

Data file comprises data message, preferably, described data message is static relatively, for example, and official's indication of the natural event that issue in movable season on the horizon, the official of natural event activity and unofficial historical report and the statistics of editing from historical information.This historical data can merge to determine investment price and/or expenditure with climatic probability.If desired, for example, described data file can be replaced by the certain database that an availability database maybe can be provided.

The land area database can comprise geographical project, for example map and about managing other data of finance activities.For example, in the U.S., can provide map to those states of the danger that is in the hurricane attack.Preferably, described map will be " can click (clickable) ", thereby allow the participant easily to indicate interested state.In response, will show more detailed map to the participant, the map in village in for example described state, and it remains and can click, thus described participant is provided the rapid indication to the selection in the attack zone of its prediction.If desired, identical functions can or be convenient to the alternate manner that the user participates in form provides.In addition, can provide " detector (finder) " instrument of mutual reference to receive information such as postcode, and return literal, prepare against the participant indicated selecting with the colour on the shown map or visual difference zone or response inquiry.As mentioned, usually preferred map, form or comprise other geographical location information that is in those the regional visions indications outside the described finance activities, thus they provide the standby indication of not holding qualification to the participant that may select of prediction inlet to close examination.If desired, described geographical location information can link to the meteorology or the climatic data of given area.

The weather data storehouse preferably is provided for weather, meteorology or climatic information.Described weather data storehouse preferably comprises historical information, and described historical information is helpful to those people that prepare following natural event is predicted.

Participant's terminal

Turn to Fig. 3 now, terminal device 58 comprises one or more among participant's terminal 14-18, and comprises communication port 60, preferably includes one or more processors of CPU (central processing unit) 60, and Memory Storage Unit 64.Also comprise interface unit 68, it preferably includes display 70 and data input device 72.Interface unit 68 allows participants or other user 76 to communicate with equipment 58 and communicates with the equipment 13 of center management system 12 successively.

Turn to Fig. 4 now, comprise that the terminal device 80 of another example of participant's terminal comprises communication port 60, preferably include one or more processors, Memory Storage Unit 64 and the interface unit 84 of CPU (central processing unit) 62.In configuration shown in Figure 4, except display 86 and input media 88, interface unit 84 also comprises card read/write device 92 and output unit 94, and it is used to distribute the transaction of printing receipt and confirming the participant.

With reference to figure 5-6, show two additional example of participant's terminal in addition.With reference to figure 5, shown participant's terminal 200 comprises display 202, is used to present the relevant information of selected natural event; With the integrated user interface of described display, be used to check event information and on selected natural event, invest; Optionally card read/write device 206 is used to receive by participant's accounts information coded electronics or magnetic stripe card; Optional ticket dispensing device 210 is used to provide the ticket of the purchase information that comprises selected natural event; And housing 214, be used to hold described display, user interface, card read/write device and ticket dispensing device.

Participant's terminal 200 also comprises processor, and can comprise the loudspeaker (not shown) of the related audio that is used to play described finance activities information.Described display preferably includes the CRT or the flat-panel screens 218 of the relevant information that is used to show described natural event, and described display preferably includes touch control display, described touch control display comprises the touch control film (not shown), described touch control film and processor communicate with select required investing tip (for example required capital investment shares) and after information with before carry out " rolling (scrolling) " between the information.It will be apparent to one skilled in the art that the display that can use any suitable type.

Turn to Fig. 6 now, show usually another embodiment, comprise display 232, be used to present the relevant information of selected natural event by 230 indicated at least one participant's terminal; User interface 236 is used to check event information and invests; Optionally card read/write device 240 is used to receive by participant's accounts information coded electronics or magnetic stripe card; Optional ticket dispensing device 242 is used to provide the ticket of the purchase information that comprises selected natural event; And erect type housing 250, be used to hold described display, user interface, card read/write device and ticket dispensing device.Described participant's terminal also comprises the processor (not shown) that is used to promote finance activities.Participant's terminal 230 can also comprise the loudspeaker (not shown) of the related audio that is used to play described finance activities information.Example shown in Fig. 5 and 6 only is the illustrative embodiments of at least one participant's terminal, and other configuration also can be considered.For example, described user interface can comprise a plurality of hardware or software push buttons, and each described pushbutton recognition is used to promote the difference in functionality of the various aspects of described finance activities.

Central management equipment

In one example, central management equipment 13 and described participant's equipment (being called as " equipment " jointly) comprise a plurality of parts, for example one or more in electronic unit, hardware component and the Computer Software Component.A plurality of such parts in equipment can be merge or separate.Will recognize that as those skilled in the art example components of described equipment adopts and/or comprises one group and/or a series of any one computer instruction of writing or being implemented of multiple computerese that utilizes.In one example, direction that for purposes of illustration, that described equipment comprises is any (for example level, inclination or vertical) utilizes herein description and diagrammatic sketch that an exemplary direction of described equipment is described.

In one example, described equipment adopts one or more computer-readable signal bearing mediums.The storage of described computer-readable signal bearing medium is used to carry out software, firmware and/or the assembly language of one or more parts of one or more embodiment of the present invention.The example of the computer-readable signal bearing medium of described equipment comprises memory unit 20,64.In one example, described computer-readable signal bearing medium comprises one or more in magnetic, electricity, optics, biological and data storage medium atom.For example, described computer-readable signal bearing medium can comprise floppy disk, tape, CD-ROM, DVD-ROM, hard disk drive and electronic memory.In another example, described computer-readable signal bearing medium can comprise the modulated carrier signal via Network Transmission, described network comprises described equipment or is coupled to form with it, for example, one or more in telephone network, LAN (Local Area Network) (" LAN "), wide area network (" WAN "), internet and the wireless network.

Graphic user interface

Turn to Fig. 7 and 8a-8f now, begun by Fig. 7, program 30 comprises one or more subroutines, is used for communicating with the participant who is positioned at the remote participant terminal.In one example, program 30 comprises one or more subroutines, is used to generate one or more screens of carrying out a plurality of functions, comprise to the participant sending information, and reception is from described participant's information.In Fig. 7, window or screen 300 schematically present the profile screen of participant John Doe, and be indicated as 310.As mentioned, screen 300 is profile screen, and with a plurality of support screen co-operation, described a plurality of support screen is inquired about described participant's customizing messages (for example described participant's name), and reception response message, described response message is then evaluated (review) form or content, and is recorded in one or more databases (for example participant database), and reports in zone 310.

Other support screen receives other participant's application message, and for example participant's position, residence or other property are preserved the position, and the relevant information of participant's credit information.In case what his qualification of the credit of having evaluated the participant just be account of described participant's opening, and described account correlative detail, the relevant Financial Information with other of credit qualification is stored in (for example participant database) in one or more databases.Profile screen 300 then is presented to described participant, thereby the active state of described participant in described finance activities confirmed.In this course, listed in 314 in the zone one or more inquiries, a plurality of data select, a plurality of movable select or with other reciprocations of described participant.If desired, each selection that presents to described participant can have adjacent inspection hurdle 318, and described inspection hurdle 318 is for providing to program 30 input preliminary datas.If desired, can provide one or more order button 320-330 to carry out one or more orders to the user, perhaps in addition a part of data that are stored in one or more databases be controlled or controlling to a part of program 30 that described participant distributed by the system manager.If desired, can provide zone 334 to show context-sensitive laws of the game, suitable prompting or other help informations perhaps is provided to described participant.If desired, can adjacent windows or pane 334 in each input provide and check hurdle 336, obtain the further information relevant to allow described participant with topics of interest.

In zone 340, warn the current operation of described participant to carry out by program 30.If desired, the sequence of operation that in zone 340, shows, and can be put in the zone 344 from described participant's suitable response indication.If desired, can the utility command button 328,330 preserve or print area 344 in information, thereby the chance that provides the acquisition activity to write record to described participant, it is the form of electronics or printed paper item that described activity writes record.

Turn to Fig. 8 a-8f now, show a series of example data entr screens with schematic form.These screens are usually about the selection of the position being selected by the participant to be used to invest.For example, if described natural event is a hurricane, then the position of participant's prediction can be that hurricane attacks the position that will land.If described natural event is tropical storm, then described position can be the center that storm attacks.If described natural event is a Hurricane, then described position can be the landing point, or along the point of the land track of described Hurricane.Can define landing in many ways.For example, landing can use the center of the eye of wind of hurricane, the eye of wind wall of hurricane or the different piece of hurricane structure to measure.With reference to figure 8a, the map 402 of screen 400 expression land areas, it preferably is subdivided into a plurality of less parts, wherein each part all can be selected by the participant, or be dark or the participant visually can be recognized it for the participant, indicate the zone of the condition that does not meet described finance activities thus.

If desired, the rule of storing in one or more databases can provide the further information about the theme of this ongoing activity.Preferably, for example, each segmentation part of map 402 can be selected by touch-screen, click or indication or by the input pen device.Be preferably equally, in one example, the zone of being selected by the participant 406 is dark, coloured or visually identifiable, the indication selection that the participant did on figure thus.In Fig. 8 a, zone 406 is selected by the participant, and receives different contrast colours to provide visual feedback to described participant.Shown in Fig. 8 a, screen 400 also comprises the inquiry to described participant, is used for confirming and the completing place selection.

Turn to Fig. 8 b now, screen 410 is represented as the prompting for the participant, comprises one or more zones on every side thereby be used for expanding indicated zone.In screen 410, change in color is perhaps carried out in feasible zone 412 flashes of light or the light and shade flicker that surrounds the expansion of initial chosen position 406 (" collar region (collar countries) ").Present optional text message and make the participant notice the advantage of the selected position of expansion, wherein the attack of natural event is predicted occurs in described selected position.For example, the participant can click (shift-clicking) by displacement and indicate other position.

In one example, may need to set up the rules of contest that allow to use so-called minor parameter.These minor parameters require participants not only to select the attack position of natural event, also will indicate some characteristic factors relevant with described natural event, for example, and the intensity of the tropical storm of measuring based on the numerical value of numeric type according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.Another example of the minor parameter of tropical storm can be the intensity of storm, and is contemplated as Fig. 8 c-8f.With reference to figure 8c, except attacking the position, screen 420 also provides the notice that minor parameter will be provided for the participant.In Fig. 8 d, drop-down window 424 is provided in screen 426, be used to refer to and will select numerical range by the participant as the type intensity of the institute's hurricane of predicting attack.In Fig. 8 e, to suppose to have enlarged the zone that attacks the position before the participant, described zone will be covered by selected investment or " stake ".In screen 430, the participant is identified so that participant's stake is extended in type intensity and land area together with invitation the selection of type 2.In Fig. 8 f, screen 440 shows the scope of the selected type intensity of participant.Then, be the screen (not shown) of summarizing participant's stake.For example, for the investment shown in Fig. 8 f, the user has selected nine geographic areas and three type intensity, and its buying expenses altogether is 27 parts (9 zone * 3 intensity levels).In one example, usually preferred in the zone 344 of screen 300 report this buy the summary of share altogether, as shown in Figure 7.

Method and operation

For example, the illustrative that provides the exemplary operation of described system is described.Fig. 9-12 is illustrated in the series of steps that will carry out during the carrying out of described finance activities.These method steps can be carried out in many ways, for example, comprise by central management equipment 13 and one or more participant's terminal and come executive routine 30, but be not limited thereto.For example, program 30 can be carried out by multi-purpose computer or special electronic device.Described method step can be combined among the project of the product such as data storage device.Here as can be seen, the step shown in Fig. 9-12 is seen the part of expression finance activities from system manager's viewpoint.

Refer step 500 at first, in fact begin described finance activities by the mode that is fit to arbitrarily.For example, if working rule provides described finance activities to begin on given date and incident, then this beginning step 500 can be carried out in the software of supervisory system clock, and the executive routine code issues to invite to the participant to make it participate in finance activities on reference date and incident.As selection, beginning step 500 can be pushed a keyswitch by the system manager and be started, and is perhaps begun to transmit to the participant by system manager's activator switch, to represent the described finance activities opening in season.According to particular aspects of the present invention, incident can relate to single natural event or a plurality of different natural event, perhaps a plurality of parts of ongoing natural event season.In one example, incident season defines by the generation of calendar date, a plurality of defined natural events or by the two combination, perhaps only depends on report or the issue of other data from the objective independent sources of information in outside.

In step 502, except announcing the described finance activities opening in season, optionally provide so that can obtain specific working rule, described working rule is used to manage this operation finance activities in season.In step 504, obtain application information from a plurality of participants.For example, this information can comprise the indication of participant's identity, participant's position, residence or property interest position, and need be used to allow the system manager to ratify participant's credit information of opening an account for the participant.Preferably, described system manager pre-defined standard of accepting in the rule of the described finance activities of management.These rules can comprise the interference of external agency, and for example the participant buys the outside credit agency of credit, and described system manager as the middle man, is served as by the businessman that provides commodity or service to sell at present.

Examine described application information in step 506, and accept still to refuse this participant's application in step 508 decision.For example, the property loss that does not openly make this finance activities cause with the generation by natural event owing to the participant is the required property interest in basis, and then this participant's application may be rejected.If participant's application is rejected, then control proceeds to step 511, wherein sends termination messages and control is back to step 504 to this participant.

If participant's application is accepted, then control proceeds to step 510, wherein obtains credit information from this participant.In the described participant's of step 512 examination credit qualification, and require based on additional suitable credit qualification and described participant is accepted or refuses in decision in step 514.Once more, if described participant does not meet enough credit qualifications, then control proceeds to step 511, wherein sends termination messages and control is back to step 504 to this participant.If the decision in the step 514 is positive, described participant's application and credit qualification accepted in expression, and then control proceeds to step 516, wherein confirms the active state of described participant about this finance activities.For example, with reference to figure 7, this affirmation can be represented by the report that above-mentioned screen 300 is issued.

With reference to Figure 10, in step 518, the participant asks the prediction input.In this step, the participant provides the information that the investment that will carry out is defined.After having confirmed unique identity of natural event, described participant states major parameter information, and in one example, described major parameter information comprises that the land of the natural event of being predicted attacks the position.Afterwards, described participant states the desired any minor parameter of working rule, for example attacks seriousness and attacks the incident of continuing.In step 520, obtain prediction input and other investing tip from described participant, and it is stored in one or more databases to be for future reference.In one example, write down the time of obtaining described investing tip, and its investment data together with the participant is stored.In one example, successful participant's the payment and the quantity of remuneration are weighed according to the time quantum between investment deal and the incident generation, time remaining then measurement of a specified duration more is favourable more, this is to be prerequisite with benefit that investment after a while has a cumulative knowledge, and described cumulative knowledge is favourable for the ability that predicted events takes place.

Examine investing tip in step 522, and judge in step 524 whether described investing tip can be accepted.If described investing tip is rejected in step 524, then control proceeds to step 526, wherein sends error message to the participant, control is proceeded to step 518 come the duplicate message accumulation process.If desired, step 526 can provide or shows relevant information to the participant, helps the participant and improves the level of skill that it is predicted.If desired, can require described participant to answer a plurality of relevant a plurality of problems of technical ability that relate to the forecasting institute that carries out specific natural event.

Suppose that described investing tip is correct form and meets other automatic standard, then control proceeds to step 528, wherein writes down described investing tip together with the current time.In order to determine investment and the natural event mistiming between taking place, the system manager has and determines to think that the participant has finished the right to choose of investment process on which point of ongoing finance activities.For example, can use the time of being notified in step 520 or 528 (if desired, or At All Other Times).As a further alternative, the system manager can wish to postpone and specifies the investment time to the participant, until the fund that obtains from described participant to be used to conclude the business.As the concession to the participant, system person can specify the investment time in step early temporarily.

Suppose that described investing tip is successfully obtained and record, then control proceeds to step 530, wherein collects essential fund from the participant.If desired, can guarantee participant's paying ability in advance, thereby on this point of finance activities, reduce any time-lag.In step 532, for example, pass through to the investment that the participant is determined in the input of summarizing screen 300.With reference to Figure 11, control then proceeds to step 534, wherein contact outside objective independent sources of information, described outside objective independent sources of information observation of nature incident and management are about the information of described natural event, and relevant decision is provided alternatively, for example specifies the seriousness grade according to the measurement standard of being set up.

Usually, preferably, do not require that the system manager provides the decision relevant with natural event, for example main and secondary event parameter.In one example, the system manager provides in working rule, and finance activities will depend on about will be based on the generation of its natural event of investing and the objective independent sources of information of designated external of feature and other parameter.In step 534, can be established to the connection of outside objective independent sources of information, perhaps as selection, the data from the objective independent sources of information in described outside that obtain in advance can be used by described finance activities visit.In step 536,, can send the renewal that objective independent sources of information receives from described outside to ongoing progress for interests existing and the expection participant.In one example, seldom or not upgrade, the perhaps minimum time before natural event finishes upgrades with having time delay on ongoing " live telecast " basis.

In step 538, inquiry determines from the information of the objective independent sources of information in described outside whether the objective independent sources of information in described outside has determined the beginning of the interested natural event of described finance activities.If incident does not also begin, then control proceeds to step 536.When the objective independent sources of information in described outside determines that incident begins, then specify unique identifier and be recorded in one or more databases for this natural event.In one example, described unique identifier is associated with each investment that the participant does about this natural event afterwards.In step 540, report the beginning of described incident to the participant, " official " determines the time that incident begins under the rule that sends to participant or participant's available system keeper, and this time keeping in one or more databases, may carried out reference in the future for described finance activities.In step 544, then obtained if described incident does not also finish about the event procedure of continuous updating, and in one example, described event procedure is reported to the participant or the participant can be used.

In case described incident finishes, control proceeds to step 546, determines whether finance activities stops.In one example, the system manager provides the rule of the definition finance activities operation that begin and finish season.This can be based on date and time arbitrarily, perhaps based on the generation of particular event, and for example generation of the 4th time, the 5th time or the 6th time Hurricane since beginning described season.In one example, can be and then after the end in a season immediately or the beginning that postpones follow-up season.For example, can announce to adapt to financial investment by the system manager follow-up season based on the 4th time, the 5th time or the 6th time Hurricane that takes place in given hurricane season (for example, defined) by The National Hurricane Center.

With reference to Figure 11 and 12, if determine to finish season in step 546, then finish the season of finance activities in step 548, and, provided in the working rule of finance activities as described, data of being assembled in step 550 examination and out of Memory are determined and are discerned the final contestant who has carried out about the successful prediction of described natural event.In step 552, carry out a plurality of calculating and prepare to pay to the final contestant of success.In one example, calculate to determine that altogether fund is held, the management and the operation cost of described finance activities are counted, moved in each final contestant's remuneration, and for each final contestant's remuneration fund quantity.In one example, remuneration is only counted based on major parameter, and it is preferably the attack position of natural event.In another example, remuneration is counted not only by attacking determining positions, but also is decided by less important or other natural event parameter.

In one example, the system manager defines single major parameter in the system operation rule.In another example, also in the system operation rule, define one or more minor parameters.In another example, minor parameter is endowed the weight littler than major parameter.In any event, if desired, any main and minor parameter can have equal or unequal weight.In one example, about the hurricane incident, the position that described hurricane attacks is defined as major parameter, and investment time and the hurricane time delay between the raid period of investment position is defined as minor parameter.

In one example, the weight of time delay minor parameter is littler than major parameter.In another example, described natural event is defined as third level parameter in the seriousness of the predicted position that the participant stated, and less important and third level parameter is endowed equal weight.The present invention imagination according to mathematical formulae, algorithm or when it is carried out, do not require human intervention other operate to determine that remuneration counts.Like this, for example, described formula, algorithm or other operation can be combined in the circuit or hydraulic circuit of analog or digital.If desired, finance activities provides the barrier that prevents property loss (hedge) especially, and remuneration is counted and can be confirmed to determine based on participant's property right, perhaps looks participant's property right and confirms to assert.

In step 554, to successful participant or final contestant's payt fund.In step 556, described finance activities finishes.

Step described herein or operation only are exemplary.Can carry out various variations for these steps or operation, and not deviate from spirit of the present invention.For example, described step can be carried out with different orders, and perhaps described step can add, deletes or revise.

In addition to the above, the present invention also considers the activity of other type.As mentioned above, can elect a participant to contact and add finance activities with system manager or other ISP.Investment is by the share of input coefficient account with the purchase finance activities.The activity of supposing a participant is successful, and possible be, then from system account, described participant to be paid if meet specific qualification.The present invention also considers the transaction of other type.For example, the share of buying in described finance activities process can be that unique being specified in participates in individuality, and perhaps they can be by free transaction.Therefore, finance activities can be organized like this, makes to pay to the participant who invests, and perhaps can pay to the individuality that has enough signs (for example account number or password).

What the present invention also considered is that in arbitrary example, the investment position that reaches mentioned herein has or do not have the individual transaction relevant with described finance activities as share or the stake that can buy in or sell between each group.If desired, the operator of described finance activities can provide after market (aftermarket) activity in the share transaction, as the service to public member.In any case, described finance activities, from investing payment, all the operator by finance activities carries out.In another embodiment, the present invention considers that also described finance activities will carry out between two or more participants, and the operator of described finance activities provides the service of being convenient to the financial transaction between the related group.

Variable factor

The present invention has considered to influence the use of the different factors of the price of finance activities and/or payment.As introduction, consider 2 points in one example, one about probability, and another is about the schedule or the time of incident.Especially, in an example of the present invention, in buying unit (perhaps being called " share " or " stake "), provide price or expense to change, the amount of expression participant financial investment.

In one example, suppose a time point before natural event takes place, the price that the participant can set with described finance activities supplier in a finance activities is invested, and described price changed according to time and one or more probability factor.As first component of price change, in an example of the present invention, the record investment time.What should remember is, can be before natural event for a long time (for example, some months) invest, as if the time of hurricane for example will take place.An effect of this variable factor (that is time) is to encourage more early rather than more late investment.Preferably, this variable factor is operated and can effectively be distributed although this variable factor also can be applied to payment as a price rebate factor.

According to the present invention, when the participant invests, preferably can carry out one or more probability assessments in described finance activities.Preferably, a probability assessment is taked following form: the probability that " hitting (hit) ", " successful result " or " qualified " will take place based on the calculating participant's who works as precondition prediction.For the situation that relates to the hurricane natural event, in preset time, the price of the unit that can be bought by the participant is based on the probability that the selected county of described participant (perhaps being used to buy other geographic name of unit) attacks by hurricane will and calculates.If desired, probability can be based on storm rather than hurricane, and if desired, storm intensity or other factors can be used to changing purchasing price arbitrarily preset time.

Further consider probability, can consider conditional probability according to the finance activities of principle of the present invention.For example, the average time of hurricane landing U.S. in the given time is 1.7.According to conventional art, this numerical value is enough to define the Poisson distribution of U.S.'s landing number of times, and it is created on the probability that has at least hurricane to land in the U.S. in the given time is 0.817.Similarly, according to this Poisson distribution, under the given situation about having taken place once, the conditional probability that will have at least twice hurricane to land in the U.S. is 0.62.

In one example, givenly taken place K-1 time and attack, according to the conditional probability that attacks for K time, the price of the share of later investment can more early be invested cheap a lot, thereby when more early investing end, the price of follow-up investment also can improve.

According to another aspect of the present invention, described finance activities is combined with a plurality of stages of probability assessment, and given different probability is handled in each stage.Preferably, the investment price is used three probability handle, but if desired, described probability processing also can be applied to payment and distribute.In the phase one of probability assessment, there is not other tendency of storm or hurricane, preferably, the phase one probability is based on the relative frequency of weather logic (climatalogical).

The subordinate phase probability in interested region (for example is, the Atlantic Ocean) there is storm at least one time, but its interested area of distance (preferably, ConUS shore line and adjacent shore line) is enough far away, thereby can't forecast upcoming landing in this area.Preferably, for the hurricane natural event, note tropical depression and the Hurricane such as hurricane and they position and track in the ocean in this stage.Preferably, except the distance between tropical depression and the interested area, also note several years ago in the historical track or the path of the storm that lands in interested area subsequently.

In the phase III, the natural event such as hurricane lands is about to take place.Usually, preferably, state the existence of phase III based on the indication in the independent objective information source such as the pre-measured center in The National Hurricane Center/torrid zone.For example, the supplier of finance activities can note the issue of hurricane watch, particularly warns from the hurricane of The National Hurricane Center.For example, can in 24 to 36 hours, threaten one can issue hurricane watch when regional when definite hurricane situation.In this point, withdraw if ordered, then can prepare on the horizon withdrawing.When specifying the expection of seashore area can be in 24 hours or faster generation hurricane situation (that is, maximum sustained wind speed be per hour 74 miles or faster), then can issue hurricane and warn.Local government agency independently assesses, and withdraws order to people's issue of affected area independently.For the finance activities supplier, the notice of these types of events can be used to finish further participant's activity, perhaps as selecting, triggers the conversion from stages 2 probability assessment to stages 3 probability assessment.Based on the character of forecast model products, following 72 to 120 hours of NHC forecast.Should be noted in the discussion above that in this case can weaken the intentionally influence of stages 3 probability assessment of schedule or time variable factor.Because natural event is coming, preferably, the price rebate that the unit is bought is very low or be zero.If desired, can be stages 3 investment appraisal payment punishment, reason is that they approach the time that natural event takes place.

Consideration about payment

If desired, can land or hurricane land track make up around hurricane, or a structure separately of getting rid of another, or merge and make up about the finance activities of hurricane natural event.The problem that is occurred is, for example, and when hurricane when land in the border of (that is, the geographic area is such as being used to define the county that buys the unit) or contiguous this border in area, two unit.If desired, the supplier of finance activities can give width arbitrarily to the point that lands.

Hurricane current on landlocked geographic area can produce the different possibilities that the supplier to finance activities can use.For example, if specify The National Hurricane Center as the objective independent sources of information in outside, current to the financial service supplier can with a report be so-called " optimum trajectory " report, described be reported in the hurricane incident finish after issue.Described " optimum trajectory " report is based on the landlocked path of discrete positional value form definition hurricane.Like this, leave for financial service the supplier be to determine that best mode defines the hurricane track between the point of being issued on described " optimum trajectory " form.For example, if desired, the point of described " optimum trajectory " form can connect by straight line, is perhaps connected by the curve according to predefined curve-fitting method.As further possibility, can give width arbitrarily to hurricane track.

If desired, can use other information source, reason is described " optimum trajectory ", and report is not unique possible score information source, and owing to be associated with the described time delay that is reported in the issue afterwards of nature activity end, may not need described report under particular condition.For example, in the what is called " consultant " that The National Hurricane Center issued, can obtain same category information (lat/lon and the maximum wind-force that continues) near real-time, the time delay that described information can not be prolonged.Preferably, preferred natural event result's the fastest satisfied conclusion, thus can distribute the individual who suffers described natural event rapidly.

When considering geographical unit, land, different possibilities can appear.For example, can be for the payment that the unit, land of geography carries out based on one or more external factor, the simple hit/miss of unit, for example interested land is handled.In another example, can be for the payment of unit, interested land based on the hurricane strength of announcing according to " optimum trajectory " or other form.As further possibility, recognize that the intensity of hurricane when by unit, given interested geographical land can change on density or intensity.Thereby, may have mathematical method and consider that hurricane is about the difference in length of the ingress and egress point of interested geographical unit.As further possibility, interested geographic area can be positioned between the point of being announced on " optimum trajectory " form, the mode that can take numerical solutions to release about interested geographical unit.If desired, can calculate expenditure based on the hurricane strength of titular geographical unit.For example, a kind of possibility of payment is that the geographical unit of the hurricane activity that suffers greater strength is more paid, and this is that will to obtain more helps with the participant who suffers more havoc to those be prerequisite, and described destruction is weighed with hurricane strength.

When titular participant being calculated payment, it is also conceivable that other variable factor except that above-mentioned.For example, except time factor discussed above and probability factor (being preferably used for price change) and Strength Changes, it is also conceivable that the residence time of hurricane in given geographical unit interested, this still will obtain more helps with the participant who suffers more havoc to those is prerequisite, and described destruction is to weigh at the time of occurrence of given geographical unit interested with hurricane.

Modularity (Modularity)

In one example, the present invention includes the one or more systems that are used to carry out described finance activities, one or more methods and/or one or more device.A plurality of important issues come addressing by database and/or program.In one example, usually preferably, based on the modularization basis addressing is carried out in these issues as much as possible.By this way, the system manager can be fast and is easily adjusted described finance activities and satisfy a plurality of specific needs, and if desired, can revise described finance activities on ongoing basis.To provide the concise and to the point description of " modularization " issue now.

1. the definition of outside objective independent agency, the objective independent agency in described outside monitors natural event, measures, observes or obtain and write down the data about natural event, and reaches a conclusion and carry out analysis decision about natural event.In one example, usually preferably, the objective independent agency in described outside is independent of participant's finance activities, and in another example, the public or at least the participant can easily observe the objective independent agency in described outside.For example, the objective independent agency in described outside can comprise the unit of U.S. government, and described unit carries out public's bulletin routinely, and is subjected to the constraint of public member's freedom of information inquiry.

2. the definition of the incident of qualified payment.For example, about the hurricane natural event, usually preferably, and in one example, " hurricane " that described incident is declared by The National Hurricane Center's definition " official ".Yet in another example, described finance activities can be handled other the stage before the hurricane thought, weighting or not weighting payment based on count.In one example, the payment of described finance activities can be based on the generation of natural event or the termination of natural event.

3. need permission to add the definition of participant's qualification of described finance activities.For example, the grade of skill (possessing) that comprises the participant so that participant in the constructed finance activities of skill recreation is required, perhaps participant's property right (for example, possessing) so that participant in the constructed finance activities of media of the compensation property loss that natural event was caused is required.

4. the definition in " season " of described finance activities.For example, described finance activities season can be consistent with particular time interval, for example by The National Hurricane Center's defined " hurricane season ".In another example, preferably,, can select described finance activities season it to be in outside period that thought or convention for the hurricane natural event, for example be " the hurricane season " of The National Hurricane Center described period.

5. the number of times and the length in finance activities season in the given time.In one example, can there be and only has finance activities season.In one example, described finance activities can start from beginning over the years season.In another example, described finance activities can begin in the random time in over the years season.In one example, the length in finance activities season can be predefined movable naturally number of times.In another example, can define finance activities and make it comprise predetermined natural event number of times season, in case the natural event of pre-determined number has taken place, then this finance activities end in season perhaps begins follow-up finance activities season.

Payment institute based on natural event and the definition of the type of activity.For example, for the hurricane incident, the activity of being approved can comprise that seashore attacks, the landlocked coastal waters hurricane that attacks and do not land (for example arrive apart from seashore 1/4th miles with interior hurricane).For the natural event of other type that is different from hurricane, can carry out other definition of " subcharacter (sub-characteristics) ".

7. qualified zone or the regional definition that is contained in described finance activities.In one example, only there are land area or area to be considered to the qualified described finance activities that is contained in.In another example, describe to define geographically qualified described land area and the area that is contained in described finance activities according to the tradition such as the Administrative boundaries of being set up.In another example, can think a plurality of parts of geographic zone qualified involved (for example, in the zone, many island of east coast of the united states some can be considered to do not have qualification involved, and reason is that its area is little, almost do not have or do not have resident or other not to have the reason of statement).

8. the definition in the zone that is attacked by natural event.In one embodiment, can define according to the outside objective independent sources of information such as The National Hurricane Center by the attack zone.In one example, the qualified attack zone of described finance activities comprises that by The National Hurricane Center's " optimum trajectory " or defined those zones of other interim report typically, described interim report is issued during the hurricane incident or in its short incident in end back.In one example, (preferably, hurricane the is oculocentric) size of The National Hurricane Center's " optimum trajectory " or width can be wireless thin, perhaps can be predetermined width.In one example, the data form of hurricane " optimum trajectory " that can be by connecting The National Hurricane Center with straight line or curve or other form given point calculate the qualified attack zone of described finance activities, wherein said curve is preferably by predetermined curve-fitting method definition.

9. the definition of the character of the qualified natural event of described finance activities.For example, the incident that is defined as clear and definite " hurricane " by official of The National Hurricane Center can be declared as the unique qualified natural event of admitting of described finance activities by working rule.In another example, described finance activities can be treated The National Hurricane Center's defined " hurricane " according to defined its storm intensity of The National Hurricane Center.For example, only have and be defined as the hurricane that reaches type 3 seriousness by The National Hurricane Center and just announced qualified for described finance activities.In one example, can attack based on hurricane and pay, described hurricane attacks and comes weighting according to the defined storm intensity of The National Hurricane Center.For example, the distribution of carrying out based on " optimum trajectory " of hurricane can based on hurricane carve at a time and/or the seriousness of the contact point of described hurricane or other are main, less important, the 3rd or other standard pay different quantity to different qualified participants.In one example, can discontinuous report from the information of the viewed land track about tropical weather events of external source independently.For example, the use of " optimum trajectory " or other form itself presents the discrete point of the data that distribute in the interval of events.When the data of being reported do not correspond to the border of the defined geographic area of described finance activities, can go wrong.Can carry out various processing.For example, can average between (for example, two consecutive point of " optimum trajectory " or other form) at two consecutive number strong points, and the value can use this mean value to determine described natural event through given geographic area the time.In another kind is handled, if data point (for example, point on " optimum trajectory " or other form) appear within the geographic area of described finance activities, the numerical value that then belongs to this data point can be used for all investments in this geographic area that the participant predicted.Other processing also is possible.

10. determining qualified those participants' that receive payment payment amount.Several examples of payment can change according to the different factors that go out given herein and the number of consideration.These variations can illustrate by different ways, and for example, described mode comprises simple linear weighted function or complicated algorithm more.In another example, as may needing, the payment between the different participants changes can be based on one or more relevant or independent factors.In one example, can determine payment amount based on main, less important and (if desired) the 3rd and other standard to qualified participant.For example, for tropical weather events, can select the landing " place " of tropical weather events to be used as main standard.If desired, the land track of torrid zone weather events can be used as another main standard (especially having the equal weight part between the hypothesis main standard), perhaps can be used as minor criteria (especially in the weight part of giving unequal (being preferably still less) with respect to main standard) at least.In another example, can select other less important or substandard, for example, preferably, in the time of in described tropical weather events resides in the geographic area that the participant predicts, can be chosen in the residence time of given geographic area, or the wind speed or the wind speed range that are associated with tropical weather events.As further possibility, can the 3rd or other additional level in set up a plurality of standards (preferably, supposing that the weight between each standard class equates).

Described other example of variable factor at this, described example will be summarized following.

Derive from the trade finance motility model

As mentioned above, in one example, the finance activities of principle can be modeled as and (for example derive from security interests according to the present invention, privilege) similar financial trade, for example those financial trades that monitored by Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (independent agency of U.S. government), New York Stock Exchange, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Iowa electronic market etc.

In general, the finance activities of other type of place consideration is compared therewith, activity under the financial modeling that " derives from the trade type " is combined with price control, the control of described price is more to be driven by market condition, and the less direct control that is subjected to rule, operating principle and other structure of the finance activities taked.

An example according to this finance activities model, and suppose the natural event of hurricane or tropical weather pattern, beginning in finance activities season of being declared, originally all geographic areas (for example, the county) all available for the individuality investment, but need some predetermined minimum amounts of investment (that is purchasing price).In case the specific geographical area is invested, then will be set at higher purchasing price to the next one investment that same geographical area is carried out.For example, the rule of described finance activities can stipulate that second investment will be born the rise in price of fixed rate, and for example each share is 0.25 dollar.If desired, rise in price can be assigned in the stride of the growth stride (number of U.S. dollar amount or trade share) according to volume of trade.If desired, can adopt the growth of other type, comprise the linear or non-linear mathematics manipulation of price.The price of follow-up investment can continue to increase in the specific geographical area, perhaps will be stable at a constant price, until reaching the minimum set point of quota purpose.

If desired, select described set point to reflect " the pot size (pot size) " of essence, it will prove the essence stride that appreciates.If desired, can adopt several rise in price strides, and about the share piece (block) of similar or different sizes.For example, if the transaction of specific geographical area is flat,, can reduce purchasing price then based on time value from the last trade activity.In case the activity of specific geographical area recovers, then appreciate and come into force.If desired, when share is concluded the business, each geographic area will have different initial prices, and can have different step size or piece.Like this, in this example, the share price according to the marketing activity change (for example, along with the growth of trade activity, staged or change to increase reposefully).Alternatively, in this example, the share price can also change based on time factor, for example the central factor that descends around transaction.

Usually, preferably, price is obeyed a plurality of principles.For example, usually preferably, begin transaction with the lowest price of setting, described lowest price can be different for each geographic area.In one example, usually preferably, described lowest price depends on the marketing activity.In second example, it depends on the weather logic probability (as current estimation) that hits the specific geographical area, and along with transaction carries out having how many shares to sell for the specific geographical area, and depend on the total amount of the money in the pot.If desired, each in these principles can be used (for example, according to different increments, friction speed or other mathematics manipulation) with different amounts.Usually preferably, described lowest price increases along with the increase of the probability that hits described geographic area, and described lowest price also should increase along with the increase of total amount in the pot.In one example, usually preferably, described lowest price reduces along with the increase of the share number (that is, for the specific geographical area) of sharing pot potentially.

As an alternative, the finance activities of described " derivation trade " type can be operated based on different structures.In this second example, the finance activities in the mature market can be replaced (preferably less, as to replace) by the finance activities of " auction " form.In one example, the finance activities of auction formats Once you begin then is defined in different intervals and takes place.For example, in one example, a plurality of auctions will be preferably in intercycle ground generation in season, the time interval between the auction this process be in early days sparse (for example, weekly or every month), when having Hurricane and especially be about to face hurricane when threatening, then frequent (for example, a plurality of auctions every day) more.

In one example, preferably, make that the reservation price and the specific geographical area of auction are proportional with the probability that is hit, multiply by available fund, its result is divided by the outstanding share number in this specific geographical area.If desired, applied proportionality constant can be 1, or less than or greater than certain number of 1.

In the another kind variation, the researcher shows the sales contract corresponding to different geographic regions, sets its contract price by the participant, and the confidence degree that described contract price will take place to land based on them to the there increases or decline.The value of these contracts will be admitted and growth or reduction based on the market that the storm of being predicted takes place.

Derive from the example of trade type model

Example 1: suppose that auction for the first time finished in certain time in January, traditional " hurricane season " before, then be calculated as 0.02 at " stage 1 " of this proposition probability.Finance activities before supposing has been sold 5000 shares for interested geographic area, and all auction has been accepted 2,500 ten thousand dollars altogether.Then minimum unit price will be (0.02) * (2,500 ten thousand dollars)/5000=100 dollar, thereby nobody's bid can be lower than 100 dollars lowest price.If the buyer is more than share, more then and more whole unlucky 100 dollars bidder.

Example 2: suppose certain time in July, when having tropical storm, in the position that helps hitting interested geographic area (for example, county)." stage 2 " probability in this zone of this proposition is calculated as 0.10.For interested geographic area, purchased now 100000 shares, and pot is 2,000,000,000 dollars altogether.Then the lowest offer price is (0.10) * (2,000,000,000 dollars)/100000=2000 dollar.

Example 3: desired tropical storm is dissipated in example 2, and now interested geographic area is not threatened.And current do not have other storm to threaten, and then probability drops to 0.02.There are 2,100,000,000 dollars in the pot now, and for interested geographic area, purchased now 105000 shares.Then the lowest offer price drops to (0.02) * (2,100,000,000 dollars)/105000=400 dollar, and reason is the reduction of probability.

In above-mentioned each example, preferably, carry out independent auction (and a plurality of auctions are carried out in each geographic area) for each geographic area in the recreation, whether will increase to indicated level on, and/or what increase on the indicated level by investor's level of interest if being set price.And, usually preferably, will be restricted to fixed number at any one unit number that is constantly provided, desired is, does not provide sum if do not limit, and will can not encourage the bid that is higher than reservation price.

If desired, as finance activities become season peace and quiet (clear), when wherein specific geographic area artificially can not be generated investor's interest of essence (for example, the landlocked geographic area that does not have in history or only very rarely be hit), can after provide the particular processing method.

" hurricane fund " example

I. summary

It below is a example according to the finance activities of principle of the present invention.As mentioned, the present invention considers dissimilar finance activities models.Though also be applicable to other finance activities models in many principles that this proposed, following example provides with the form of the finance activities model of the type that comprises skill recreation.Usually about " hurricane fund ", the investment character of emphasizing described finance activities is to prevent unforeseen loss in this finance activities of considering.In a given example, described hurricane fund is the skill recreation, and it is conceived to the natural event of particular type, i.e. the hurricane that lands in the U.S..That is to say, in this example, only consider to be called as the Hurricane of intensity of the minimum standard of " hurricane ".

Hurricane is acknowledged as and comes from the ocean, and its intensity increases in time before landing.The intensity of described Hurricane may raise and reduce.Choice criteria herein has the Hurricane of minimum Class1 hurricane strength when being landing.Make up described hurricane fund and allow " participant " or " investor " to use them, and provide income to help the relevant expense of Zhi Fuyu disaster management to participant status simultaneously in the mode that increases the hurricane insurance.Typically, house owner and firm's insurance policies comprise the deductible regulation that scope is a house value 2% to 15%.In addition, these identical policies to the field outside house or the firm without any covering, for example.View, exterior lighting, dock, fence or the like.Often, the property owner does not have sufficient flood insurance, and has other carelessness or insufficient coverage, even the hurricane of minimum level, this also can cause catastrophic property loss.And, when grade (rates) when losing, and, also can suffer a loss in the place that needs the temporary home.

Because the finance activities according to principle of the present invention can be carried out according to different financial modelings.So as an example according to the finance activities of principle of the present invention, the hurricane fund can be different from the insurance means, to qualified investor's payment and do not rely on actual property loss, thereby can distribute fast.Payment does not herein relate to attemperator's inspection, thereby can more promptly carry out (for example, within several weeks).Can realize this fast and flexibly reason be, the mode of operation of described hurricane fund is emphasized to pay and is mainly depended on the distribution hurricane fund of investing in the specific hurricane fund, and emphasizes the county that attacks for the experience hurricane and the amount and the time of the hurricane fund that drops into.

As mentioned above, finance activities can make up around the model that relates to the natural event activity, described natural event activity is based on the incident part (event by event) of taking over a job, perhaps so that " season " of incident to be taken place in the schedule time span.In above given example, be chosen in " season " basic enterprising line operate.Therefore, investor's a plurality of hurricane funds of participating can change year by year.At first, open two or three hurricane funds are used for investing, and start from January 1.In these initial hurricane funds each is all relevant with one of two or three initial Hurricanes that pass through U.S. subregion, described Hurricane has determined hurricane wind-force in over the years on the horizon at least, in one example, describedly determine to come from the Hurricane report that The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issued.Usually, the overwhelming majority of these incidents that take place in described incident span is called as " hurricane season " (June 1 was to November 30).In movable hurricane season,, can offer additional hurricane fund along with advancing of hurricane season.

Preferably, each investment in the hurricane fund all is forms with share, and described share is for being one or more purchase the in about 1155 counties (or the equivalent in county, for example Louisiana parish) of hurricane target.When these shares be for be subjected to afterwards that hurricane attacks the county bought the time, they just make that their owner is qualified and obtain payment from this hurricane funds.The investor in titular one or more counties is paid in all investments in the given hurricane fund, in given example, described hurricane fund can be defined less clause (for example, for participating in the specified part of state government and the expense of hurricane fund management).The formula of determining these payments is contained the possibility that hurricane attacks the qualified county (one or more) that is assessed when carrying out the hurricane capital investment, and for the repayment of investment early to this hurricane fund.

II. the structure of hurricane capital investment

A. hurricane fund share

To the input in single county, it adopts the form of " share " that can be used for investing among of specific hurricane fund in the hurricane fund.The first hurricane fund relates to first Hurricane, and described first Hurricane lands as the hurricane of crossing the U.S., comprises the Puerto Rico and U.S. dimension archipelago, capital; The second hurricane fund relates to second hurricane that attacks the same area; Or the like.For example, suppose that first U.S.'s hurricane lands in Texas Galveston county in the supposition time, second hurricane lands in Florida Miami-Date county.The part that the share of in hurricane fund 1 Galveston being bought will make all the money investments of the qualified acquisition of its owner in this hurricane fund, but the investor of Miami-Date will can not make a profit from this hurricane fund in hurricane fund 1.On the other hand, will be given the part of all money investments in this hurricane fund the investor of the hurricane fund 2 that is used for Miami-Date, but the investor of Galveston will can not make a profit from this hurricane fund in hurricane fund 2.

In one example, the main mode of implementation hurricane fund will be to be undertaken by hurricane fund website with credit card.Figure 13 to 18 has provided the example of a website, wherein shows " storm fund (the StormFund) " website of implementing the finance activities of hurricane fund.Figure 13 shows a website screen, and it obtains first page that this network address will run into as welcome page or participant.Comprise the indication 600 of hurricane fund of current opening and the brief overview 602 of current Hurricane activity in the screen shown in Figure 13.

In one example, except website visiting is provided, the present invention also make can not access internet the individual can add described hurricane fund by the touch-screen display that use is positioned at convenience store, refuelling station etc.For example, the individual will select by touching interactive screen, and come to pay for their investment by the brush credit card or to retailing facility cash call payment.Preferably, described display will be credit card and purchase with cash generation printing receipt (comprising identification number) automatically.Can require Social Security Number and perhaps be that biometric device such as finger scan adds described hurricane fund.

Figure 16-18 shows the share of the storm fund website enforcement of hurricane fund and buys.Two screens buying share have been shown, and to figure 17 illustrates be that share is bought given affirmation in Figure 16 a and Figure 16 b-16c.In Figure 18, show summary or " portfolio (portfolio) " of a participant's All Activity.

In case invest in the hurricane fund, then preferably, described investment will be not can not preserved as these being influenced the investment that share that other people buy is worth.In one example, before investor's credit card company deposited investment in the described hurricane fund, described investment was not thought and is accepted.If keep the payment to described hurricane fund after the described credit card company, then preferably, the share of being bought in described hurricane fund is worth will be set to 0.

B. share price

In one example, the price of the hurricane fund share in specific county determined by mathematical formulae, and described mathematical formulae relates to probability that this county is hit and to the price rebate of early stage investment.Thereby in the different time, the share price in the hurricane fund will be different, and also be different at special time for different counties.The price incentive of early stage investment is enriched, and is designed to encourage invested before any tropical incident exists, and is in fact more accurate before hurricane begins season.Estimate many early stage investment activity meetings utilize the hurricane fund to replenish the investor of traditional insurance from hope or with described hurricane fund as the insurer's who insures means again.The purpose that the finance of later investment are punished is by encouraging early stage investment to obtain the fund of maximum as far as possible with not encouraging to delay in the hurricane fund.

Preferably, when the probability of hurricane attack was higher, the share price was also higher, and when the probability of hurricane attack hanged down, the share price was also lower.Preferably, for the interested people of possibility, can formulate the detail of the price formula that can use in hurricane fund website.The factor that influences the price agency comprises:

1. to the position in its county that invests.For example, on average, the county that is positioned at southern Florida more may be hit than the county that is positioned at the Massachusetts in history, thereby the share price in the county of Florida is higher usually.

2. the size in county.Bigger county presents bigger target, thereby the share in the bigger county is more expensive usually.

Which 3. in hurricane fund, invest.For example, the share in the hurricane fund 2 is more cheap than the share in the hurricane fund 1, and other factor is like this equally, and reason is that in the given time possibility that U.S.'s hurricane takes place is bigger than the possibility that twice such incident takes place.

4. the position (one or more) of the Hurricane in the Atlantic, the Caribbean and/or the Gulfian and intensity (one or more), described Hurricane threatens the U.S. potentially.Such storm in some positions more may influence specific county as hurricane, and the share price in such county can corresponding improve.In case The National Hurricane Center has announced a tropical depression, and explode strong with the wind and continue, then the each enhancing of the intensity of storm can make that all the share price continues to increase, and reason is that stronger storm is bigger for the threat on land.This of share price be on the one hand with respect to early stage hurricane The fund investors, is intended to prevent that the people who understands the storm of current existence at present from obtaining inequitable repayment owing to having this information.

C. the opening of hurricane fund and sealing

Hurricane fund management or supplier can arbitrarily be provided with the number that can open the hurricane fund that is used for investing.Expectation will have two or three hurricane funds open in the January 1 in every year.These hurricane funds land about possible U.S.'s hurricane in this is over the years, and no matter whether they take place during " the hurricane season " that it has been generally acknowledged that (June 1 was to November 30).With hurricane fund management person's the meaning, for example,, can before " hurricane season " beginning, open other hurricane fund if estimate uncommon a large amount of hurricane to take place in this annual conference.Similarly, if Kai Fang all hurricane funds are all because hurricane lands (preferably especially before, measure by the hurricane eye that hits land) or upcoming possible hurricane land and seal, then can be open the investment in other hurricane fund week during hurricane season.

Preferably, according to the current NHC report of storm, when related storm enough approached to land, the hurricane fund will be to further investment sealing.Preferably, when being apprised of when withdrawing, people should be away from home and no longer participate in the activity of hurricane fund.Preferably, the accurate triggering of sealing for the hurricane fund will reach the balance between public security (can not hinder careful withdrawing too for a long time and not by keeping opening) and the Pan Kou participation (not disinvestment before given storm is about to threaten).Possible compromise can be when NHC warning that its Hurricane has hurricane strength and can be carried out the one or more counties of hurricane capital investment has produced, the sealing of triggering hurricane fund.In addition, for fast moving and/or the hurricane that develops rapidly, when the operation estimation of the hurricane track of being announced in the relevant NHC report has arrived at least one and may carry out the county of hurricane capital investment, described hurricane fund will be closed.

Because Puerto Rico is relative to ConUS with U.S. dimension archipelago, capital, then the hurricane fund for these two regions sealings can need not other region of the U.S. is sealed.In this case, the share that is positioned at the county that the U.S. has a common boundary that has that the identical storm of hurricane strength arrives soon after is also received payment with qualified from this hurricane fund.Yet, preferably, owing to the hurricane fund that is closed near ConUS or at the storm that ConUS lands is tieed up the archipelago, capital for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and is sealed too.

III. hurricane disbursement from fund

A. qualified share payment

Preferably, invest all funds of given hurricane fund and carried out five equilibrium between qualified share, the described fund of less fixed proportion is used to participate in state government's (helping to support emergency management) and hurricane fund management.Qualified share is the share that the county bought of being hit by the relevant hurricane of described hurricane fund for subsequently.Thereby the early stage investor who buys relatively cheap qualified share will realize bigger investment repayment than later investor, and the share price is higher for described later investor.In order to enlarge possible scope, preferably, will be undertaken from of the payment of hurricane fund by fund is imported the credit card of investing at first to qualified share holder.The advantage that this mechanism had is that these are used to rebuild the people of financial resources or the relevant spending of other hurricane for needs, can pay very quickly.For example, may especially be badly in need of these payments owing to withdrawing the individual who shifts from family's midium or long term.These problems may worsen owing to unemployment.May need to represent IRS to refuse to pay part in the wholesale payment.

B. qualified share determines

In order to determine the qualified share in the hurricane fund, in one example,, think that then this county " is hit " if passed through the some parts in a county by the determined hurricane centrode of NHC forecast, the public or special report of storm (or ,+/-20 nautical miles).Under this example scenario, be used in the NHC report determining that the essential information of qualified share is storm position (longitude and latitude) and intensity (the maximum wind-force that continues), these are reported to betide special time.Preferably, will connect these location points (perhaps, alternatively, calculate or otherwise disclosed curve, and preferred by the mentioned curve of reference on the hurricane fund website) by straight-line segment according to the formula of manipulating among the NHC.In this example, the share in the county of being calculated between two continuous positions of the storm with hurricane strength (maximum to continue wind-force be 64kt, or per hour 74 miles) that track arrived will be qualified share.For this purpose, for example, will define the geographical extension in county by the map boundary line file of United States Bureau of the Census, it is published in Http:// www.census.gov/geo/www/cob/co2000.htmlCan also revise these define allow to be subjected to more the county that hurricane-force wind (type 2+ hurricane, it is indicated to continue the wind-force report as the maximum in the NHC report) influenced share to the bigger hurricane fund asset share of its investor's repayment.

Preferably, should be pointed out that to the investor in the hurricane fund, with respect to the hurricane behavior of real world, these determine the rule of qualified share, and some is idealized, and this is to come to qualified share payment hurricane fund asset in order to have available rapidly, clear, direct and automatic mode.Especially, should be noted that some.First is: according to the employed definition of hurricane fund, the county that often has experience hurricane wind-force and/or other hurricane to impact does not have qualification to think " being hit " on the contrary.Especially especially like this for bigger or stronger storm.Thereby, be intended to effectively replenish its hurricane The fund investors of insuring coverage rate and also encouraged to invest in the county of periphery.For the person's of encouraging investment self-protection, some counties that hurricane fund website will be bordered on the county with initial selection are flicker or turn colors automatically, impels the investor that its investment is expanded to (necklace) a plurality of counties on every side.In this example, if destroy, but the hurricane eye does not enter their county, and the investor will have bigger chance by this way and make a profit from the activity of hurricane fund.

Second is, it is definite because qualified county is based on the position of specific (may be erratic) time of storm, so at the track that is calculated (be used for determine qualified share) with actual path (for example, some months is determined after the NHC of official of this storm Hurricane report, may be tangible in the storm time of a series of weather radar images perhaps) between can the little difference of appearance.Once more, except the county (one or more) that is most interested at them, it is wise that nigh county invests.

As thirdly, United States Bureau of the Census's data file only is similar to the real geographical profile in many counties.They are made of line segment aggregate, thereby will can accurately not follow crooked border, county.In addition, the part in some counties (particularly relatively little island) is not comprised in the map boundary line file of the Census Bureau.For example, Dry Tortugas is not comprised in the map boundary line file of Florida, thereby, in order to determine qualified share, can not constitute automatically in the Monroe county through the hurricane of this part in Florida Monroe county and " to hit ".

Exist at the same time under the situation of a plurality of Hurricanes, if in them more than one finally influence the U.S. as hurricane, then need one clearly rule decide which storm relevant with which hurricane fund.Can determine priority according to the time of at least one county that can carry out the hurricane capital investment, landing.For example, if the hurricane " Bob " of supposition lands the U.S. before at the hurricane " Alice " of supposition, then " Bob " will be assigned to hurricane fund 1, and " Alice " will be assigned to hurricane fund 2.Expectation will be carried out in two weeks of the final NHC report of the storm of being discussed for the payment of qualified share.Under abnormal conditions, for example hurricane may strengthen and influence once more the U.S. once more, more than the hurricane disbursement from fund can be fully postpones for two weeks with hurricane fund management person's the meaning.In all cases, preferably, the hurricane disbursement from fund will be based on can carrying out in the best and nearest information of the approximately time acquisition of the storm of discussing from The National Hurricane Center, and will can not be subjected to constraint that the incident of the follow-up renewal of this information is revised.

IV. hurricane fund website

With reference to figure 13-18, in one example, to manage the activity of described hurricane fund by the website, described website is according to calculating the share price from the information of NHC report automatically and paying from investor's credit card reception, when one or more the Atlantic Hurricane occurring, described NHC report is upgraded 4 times every day at least.Preferably, primary entrant (entrant) will need registration.Preferably, the protection that will access to your password to the credit card that is associated with each registration comes convenient may the needs might pay the institute that the account carries out.Preferably, social safety information will be required the part as registration, so that state and national governmental agencies are followed the tracks of the obligation to pay tax of any payment.

The current share price in the county that all are available can show with the form of figure or tabulation.Refer to figs. 14 and 15 illustrative screen describe, can use the map (seashore area and single state) that can click, and utilize color code to indicate the share price approx.Preferably, can also provide a state to connect the drop-down menu (not shown) in a state.Giving option to the participant, to specify them be form of buying with share or the form that will drop into dollar for the input in each selected county.In Figure 14 and 15, the selection that the participant can carry out illustrates with the form of shade.

The input amount of money of date in each hurricane fund (and can be used for follow-up payment) will be delivered on the described hurricane fund website and continuous updating.To investing open hurricane fund, under the various hypothesis of the hurricane track related about this hurricane fund, the site access person determines that the potential payment to the share in any county is possible for current.Can be to passing through any hurricane in the county of being discussed in history, perhaps website caller may carry out these " if (what if) " calculating by interested any hypothesis hurricane track.

For the hurricane fund that further investment has been sealed, preferably, with listing the actual hurricane track and the hurricane disbursement from fund of each share, together with the various NHC of official information about this storm.These assessments can be modified, and dissipate fully until given Hurricane, and can not strengthen and influence subsequently U.S.'s part once more thus.Because the share price can be updated (preferably, according to the up-to-date report information from NHC, every day at least 4 times), described website will be necessary not accept the investment of the prearranged time period (for example, per 6 hours) to short-term.When a Atlantic Hurricane during relatively near the U.S., these break periods will be more frequent, and this is in order to adapt to additional NHC report and the essential responsibility of carrying out other.In addition, the some or all of parts of described website can irregularly be sealed often, and this is in order to report the fresh information that the time out of schedule provides once in a while in conjunction with NHC in routine.These additional interruptions, also will allow to be used for issuing to interested group the time of described fresh information.In one example, the length of website break period depends on the speed of obtaining the NHC report, and the information of the hurricane probability of described hurricane fund is upgraded in their transmission.Preferably, even when not having the Atlantic Hurricane, also will upgrade the share price in the early stage discount that drops into of a small amount of reduction of (for example, per 6 hours) of rule intercourse utilization.

When selecting to buy the share of specific county or phase neighbouring county, preferably, the person of encouraging investment is familiar with the hurricane data that the public can be known as much as possible.For this is helped, can on described hurricane fund website, provide the weather peer link of usefulness and the educational information that other come in handy.For example, can be provided at over the historical record of the storm that taken place in the 113 years relevant track of drawing to investor and other participants with it.

V. the processing of hurricane fund asset when the hurricane that does not land the U.S. takes place

According to the definition of hurricane fund employed " hitting ", because upcoming hurricane does not pass through any U.S. land area (for example, hurricane Ophelia (2005) will be a kind of like this situation) subsequently, the hurricane fund will seal.The hurricane fund needs a kind of clear and automatic rule to handle the assets of such hurricane fund.Some may be:

Total assets and the share passing of title to next hurricane fund.For example, if hurricane Ophelia has sealed hurricane fund 3 in 2005, then the fully invested that carries out in hurricane fund 3 will be transferred to hurricane fund 4.Those shares of being bought except the investment in hurricane fund 3 (sealing now) then, the share in the hurricane fund 4 also will comprise those shares of the investment in the hurricane fund 4 before the reflection.The assets of then merged hurricane fund 4 will be according to the path of hurricane Rita and the share of being paid qualified county, no matter and these shares are represented the investment in hurricane fund 3 or the hurricane fund 4.

Assets transfer to next hurricane fund, and do not shift share entitlement.Here, the money of in hurricane fund 3 hurricane that finally becomes Ophelia being invested will be transferred to hurricane fund 4, and the track according to hurricane Rita is paid, but in this example, the share of being bought in original hurricane fund 3 will not have qualification to obtain any payment.

3. also need another rule to manage the assets that keep the hurricane fund of opening in the end of the year.If desired, can select one of above-mentioned selection (though not needing identical), or may come managed fund by some other options with the management of mid-season hurricane fund sealing.

4. if desired, can behind the less managerial cost of deduction, fund be returned to the participant.

The detailed consideration of " hurricane fund " example

I. foreword

It below is the detailed consideration of the above hurricane fund example that provides.In one example, the number of the hurricane fund that can participate in of player can change year by year.At first, the hurricane of discussing in certain time is opened K hurricane fund on the January before season 1.In these hurricane funds each is with relevant through one in K Hurricane before the U.S. part during hurricane season (June 1 was to November 30), and described Hurricane is minimum to have the determined hurricane wind-force of The National Hurricane Center or its affiliated institutions.In the active relatively time, carry out to open other hurricane fund season along with hurricane.The hurricane fund that drops in given natural event is paid the entrant according to formula, described formula relates to each that assessed when the participant drops into and attacks the possibility of the hurricane in qualified county (one or more), being used for the state than small part and participating in and the hurricane fund management of described hurricane fund.

II. the structure of hurricane fund

A. hurricane fund share example

Can in the hurricane fund, drop into (investment) with the form of " share " to single county.In one example, the share price is according to using the county that information available drops into when dropping into to be changed by the probability that hurricane attacks, and by encouraging to drop in early days and punishing that the discount factor of later input makes amendment.The price of share (June 1) when hurricane begins season is carried out with respect to a benchmark (or " standard " value), and described benchmark is by the input that is easy to most county under attack (the palm seabeach of Florida) is in history defined.Selecting the palm seabeach is arbitrarily as standard level, and reason is that it is relative that all shares are worth; But this selection can have investor's requirement, and wherein the price to the input in other all counties will reflect a tangible discount.

The weather logic analysis of the hurricane that lands the U.S. that is taken place so far from 19 end of the centurys has drawn hurricane and has attacked the reference probability in palm seabeach county, and attacks the reference probability of accepting other n county of dropping into.The center of Hurricane that the analysis of this type can be specified hurricane wind-force in the given time through the probability in the scope of 75 nautical miles at center, county (86.25 miles).Suppose that a county is circular, can be by estimating that hurricane will pass the probability in described county in the given time, for the size in described county is adjusted these numerical value.Definition is Q through the probability in 75 nautical miles of county i _i, then according to following equation (1), the hurricane of adjusting the annual weather logic of size attacks probability and is:

Q_{i} * = Q_{i} \frac{{2 (A_{i} / π)}^{1 / 2}}{2 \cdot 87.25} = 0.006541 A_{i}^{1 / 2} Q_{i} - - - (1)

Wherein Ai is the area in described county, is unit with legal sq.m..87.25 the calculating radius of mile is used to eliminate some instability of the historical record of hurricane track.

With reference now to the synoptic diagram of the preferred process of the expression geographical unit of Figure 19,, geographical unit herein is the palm seabeach county of Florida, and its area is about the A=2230 sq.m., by circle of the same area represented (dotted line is represented).The hurricane center is about 0.31 (dotted line diameter of a circle with 172.5 miles ratio) of the probability that passes through described county itself through the probability in center, described county (long arrow) 86.25 miles.

Figure 19 is illustrated in the geometric format of supporting equation (1) in the situation in palm seabeach county.The area of this county is about the A=2230 sq.m., and the annual probability that the hurricane track is positioned at 86.25 miles of described county communications is Q=28.74%.The many storms interior through this distance at center, county do not pass through described county, but contiguous described county diameter of a circle (=2 (A/p) ^1/2=53.3 miles) be similar to the ratio that will do like this that provides with two times of the search radius that defines Q or 172.5 miles ratio.Thereby, for this county, Q ^*=28.75% (53.3/172.5)=8.8%.Approximate area and the Q and the Q in calculating included county in the hurricane lottery ticket ^*The weather logical value also can be used for following reference.

In any single hurricane fund, hurricane attacks the reference probability in palm seabeach county less than Q ^*/ 100=0.0888, reason is that having more than one hurricane in the usual time lands in the U.S..The average time that hurricane lands is μ=1.7 time hurricane/years, so according to following equation (2), the reference probability in palm seabeach county is:

P_{ref} = \frac{Q *}{100 μ} = \frac{8.88 %}{(100) (1.7)} = 0.0522 - - - (2)

Except depend on equation (2) in the hurricane possibility in interested county of reference probability correlation in palm seabeach county, annual rebate rate D according to combination every day, the share price also improves during accepting to drop into gradually, according to following equation (3), described annual rebate rate D is multiplied in the share pricing formula:

Jdate herein is Julian date (consecutive days in 1 year), thereby for June 1 (jdate=152), the index in the equation (3) is 0, can not cause the share price to change.The Julian date of hurricane before season of being discussed in 1 year is negative.If the annual rebate rate is 5%, then D=0.05.

Encourage early stage the input and punishment input in late period by adjust the share price with the increase of equation (3), partly as compensation to opportunity cost.Need to determine the suitable value of discount rate D, this numerical value may change the value that reflects current financial market at that time year by year.Yet D also should comprise the very substantial premium of insurance on short-term or the medium term interest rate, so that this factor has significant effects for the share price, thereby encourages before hurricane begins season described hurricane fund to be invested.With reference now to Figure 20,, figure expresses the share price of 5 values of annual rebate rate D with respect to the standard on June 1.For the span of D, Figure 20 is the function of the numeric representation of equation (3) for date that the hurricane fund is invested.At standard date on June 1, the relative share price all is 1.0 for all discount rates.Can ignore of the influence of the current market rate (D ≈ 0.04, or 4%) of the shown temporary money of dotted line for the share price.Need annual rebate rate D ≈ 4.0 (promptly 400%) to produce between (for example) May 1 and June 1 about 15% price difference.

When dropping into, the price i of every share in specific county is attacked the Probability p of this county by hurricane _iDetermine; And with relevant to the standard value that palm seabeach county (equation 2) drops in June 1 (equation 3).Merging these factors uses following equation (4) to determine described share price:

This equation is the basis of the pricing tool of hurricane fund.F herein is any price factor that can select according to market condition.For the palm seabeach county on June 1, this is the standard price of a share.For example, the corresponding $1/ share of F=1.The higher price factor, for example F=100 ($100/ share) may have and encourage the participant in the hurricane fund, to drop into the delicate effect of more funds.As equation (3) and shown in Figure 20, the factor in the equation (4) represents that the input before June 1 will be more cheap, and the input after June 1 will be expensive.The table 1 of Figure 21 shows for attacking Probability p _iScope with an example of round number explanation share price, suppose in purchase on June 1, F=$100/ share.

Finally, equation (4) expression, by function-ln (1-p), the share price of county i depends on Probability p _i, described Probability p _iWeather logic probability P with palm seabeach county _RefRelevant.Selecting this functional form is in order to obtain logical economically share price, especially extreme for described probable range.Work as p _i=0 o'clock, equation (4) produces 0 share price: if the hurricane fund definitely has no chance to pay to a county, then the share of this county is free, and little of (for example being almost those counties of 0 for the probability that influenced by hurricane, in western Texas), share is extremely cheap.Extreme at another, when the probability that will influence a county when hurricane was tending towards 1, the share price was tending towards infinite, thereby the hurricane fund can not give remuneration for the stake of determining things.For some illustrative scenario, the table 1 of Figure 21 shows share price (buying the F=$100/ share June 1) to attacking Probability p _iDependence.According to equation (4), unless currently there is the Atlantic Hurricane, otherwise weather logic probability Q _i ^*/ 100m=p _i＜p _RefThose counties (i.e. all counties except the palm seabeach), every share price will be less than F, most of thus participants will obtain the discount of purchasing price.

III. the attack probability of equation (4) determines

Hurricane in the equation (4) attacks Probability p _iBe based on best information that random time can use, it can suitably obtain in automatic mode by hurricane fund web site software.If there is not the Atlantic Hurricane to exist when carrying out the hurricane capital investment, then described best information will be the unconditional weather logic probability in the hurricane county of being discussed that attacks k hurricane fund.These will be at " Phase I " probability of following being called as.

If there is one or more the Atlantic Hurricane, but for the probability forecast of the hurricane wind-force in the interested county that TPC issued, they are too far away apart from the U.S., can obtain cheat (sharper) probabilistic information that attacks about hurricane this moment.In this case, obtain Probability p the equation (4) from the weather logical value in each county _i, and exist or Hurricane such as hurricane is a condition with the tropical depression in the given sea area.These weather logic probabilities with good conditionsi will be called as " Phase " probability.

At last, the TPC issue is to the hurricane wind-force probability forecast in 5 days futures.When they expanded to interested land area, these forecasts provided " Phase I " probability.Reach in preset time and can have degree, need merging phase II and/or Phase I probability to estimate the Probability p in the equation (4) more than one the Atlantic Hurricane _iValue.

A. Phase I probability

The reference of following palm seabeach county attacks the equation (2) of probability from weather logical value acquisition Phase I probability.In equation (2), the year of proofreading and correct size attacks probability Q ^*Divided by the average attack number of times μ in every year, reflecting on average has the fact that influences the U.S. more than hurricane once every year, and is converted to the decimal probability from number percent.Further calibration phase I probability reflects the following fact: for second and follow-up hurricane fund, it more can not be corresponding to the hurricane that lands the U.S..That is to say,, invest the first hurricane fund and have still less uncertainty, thereby the share price of the first hurricane fund should be higher with respect to the investment second hurricane fund about the Phase I probability.Similarly, the share price of the second hurricane fund should than the 3rd and the share price of follow-up hurricane fund higher.These adjustment are contained in the calculating of Phase I probability, as using Poisson distribution to calculate, at the Phase I probability different hurricanes are landed number and use different probability.This distribution is a kind of tradition and generally accepted probability model, and when the average number in every year was μ, it was used for allocation probability between the possible number of the hurricane in given time.Particularly, according to equation (5), the Poisson probability X that each of the hurricane that lands in the U.S. may number is:

\Pr = {X = x} = \frac{μ^{x} e^{- μ}}{x!}, x = 0,1,2 . . . . . . - - - (5)

Use these Poisson probability, hurricane μ=1.7 of landing in the U.S. every year on average, according to following equation (6), the Phase I probability in i county in k hurricane fund is:

{p_{i}}^{(I)} = \frac{Q_{i} *}{100 μ} \frac{\Pr {X \leq x}}{1 - \Pr {X = 0}}, i = 1, . . . . . ., n - - - (6)

When the Phase I probability is the suitable evaluation of risk of county i, p _i ^(I)By the p in the equation (4) _iReplace determining the share price.When the 1st hurricane fund of k=, the ratio of the Poisson probability in the equation (6) is 1, thereby the equation of county i (6) is quite analogous to the equation (2) in the palm seabeach county of institute's reference.That is to say the p in the equation (2) _RefIt only is the Phase I probability in palm seabeach county in the first hurricane fund.For second and follow-up hurricane fund, reduce the fact that these Phase I probability reflect the more impossible generation of pairing hurricane.The effect of this factor in the equation (6) be for second and follow-up hurricane fund in early stage entrant further price advantage is provided, form k those entrants after landing hurricane with respect to waited until before investment always, perhaps this can not gain.The table 2 of Figure 22 illustrates the Poisson probability that time lands/year calculate from equation (5) with μ=1.7, corresponding cumulative probability Pr{X≤x}, and the ratio of the probability on equation (6) the right.The table 2 of Figure 22 shows the Poisson probability of annual μ=1.7 time hurricane, and the ratio of employed probability in corresponding cumulative probability and the equation (6).

B. Phase probability

When having the Atlantic Hurricane, the Phase Probability p that is associated with the county i that influenced by hurricane _i ^(II)Can increase from the value of stages respectively I, this depends on the position and the intensity of storm.These Phase probability are to obtain by the Phase I probability is merged with the condition weather logic relative frequency that occurs in the hurricane wind-force in 120 miles (138 statute mile) scopes at each center, county; given Hurricane is or will finally becomes the appointment storm (that is, having minimum tropical storm wind-force) that 406 2.5 of being present in the Atlantic, the Caribbean or the Gulfian take advantage of one of area of 2.5.These condition relative frequencies are represented one of these areas, ocean, wherein have Hurricane j, and because the conditional probability that the hurricane wind-force of this storm takes place in 120 miles of the center of county i the most at last is Q _{I, j}That is to say, though Q with good conditionsi _{I, j}The weather logical value is calculated with bigger level and smooth radius (120 miles contrast 75 miles), but to Yu Haiyang area j, exists and unconditional weather logical value Q _iThe similar tables of data of form, reason is to have only storm still less to be used for calculating described condition relative frequency.About this bigger level and smooth radius, similar with equation (1), use following equation (7) to calculate the condition relative frequency Q that adjusts size ^* _{I, j}:

Q_{i, j} * = Q_{i, j} \frac{{2 (A_{i} / π)}^{1 / 2}}{2 \cdot 138} = 0.004088 A_{i}^{1 / 2} Q_{i, j}; i = 1, . . ., n; j = 1, . . ., 406 . - - - (7)

According to following equation (8), merge to come calculation stages II probability with corresponding Phase I probability by condition relative frequencies that these zones are adjusted:

p _i ^(II)＝p _i ^(I)+q _i，j-p _i ^(I)q _i，j，i＝1，...，n；j＝1，...，406 (8)

Wherein, according to following equation (9):

Here, the 0.837th, near the ratio (1999-2004, the current operating practice of reflection NHC) of the tropical depression of minimum tropical weather intensity, and 1.72 be the tropical storm in the Atlantic Oceanic Region and the inferior percentage (1886-1998) of hurricane.To be the existence that reflects hurricane on an average have more the fact of threat than the appearance of tropical storm to the purpose of equation (9), and successively, the appearance of described tropical storm threat occurs having more than the torrid zone is hypobaric.When the Phase risk assessment was applicable to county i, the probability of equation (8) was by the p in the equation (4) _jReplace.

Equation (8) is reflected in by p _i ^(I)Risk on the baseline risk of the county i of expression increases, and this can ascribe at pelagic division j and Hurricane occur.In equation (8), conditional probability q _{I, j}Combine with the Phase I probability (rather than replacement), do not land as hurricane even reason is the storm of pelagic division j, county i still has (weather logic) risk that is attacked by hurricane.If conditional probability q _{I, j}Be sizable, p then _i ^(II)To be slightly larger than p _i ^(I)If the Hurricane among the foreign part j can be ignored as the probability of hurricane shadow county i, then equation (8) is hinting p _i ^(II)≈ p _i ^(I)

C. Phase I probability

Phase I probability will be based on the NHC hurricane forecast that provides as the consultant's of official of each Hurricane a part.When these probability are at least 2.5%, wish to be in system among these forecasts of 2006,2007, and the probability forecast that will produce the following 120 hours wind speed that are at least hurricane wind-force in (after each report) later hurricane season (being described as " experiment " now by TPC). Www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback-pws- Graphics2.shtmlShow a plurality of examples.The current TPC prediction table of the hurricane wind-force among the county i is shown f _iSimilar with equation (8), by these forecasts are combined calculation stages III probability with the Phase I probability of equation (6), reason is that still current Hurricane does not influence the U.S. as hurricane, does not get rid of k hurricane fund and pays to some follow-up storms.Particularly, use following equation (10) to come calculation stages III probability:

p _i ^(III)＝p _i ^(I)+f _i-p _i ^(I)f _i，f _i＞q _i，j (10a)

Or

p _i ^(III)＝p _i ^(II) (10b)

Equation (10b) comprises that the storm of being discussed can influence f _iThe probability in=0 county, reason be, if probability less than 2.5%, then these TPC forecasts are set to 0.Equally, when the clearly TPC that has at present the hurricane wind-force of the some parts of the U.S. gives the correct time in advance, the Phase I probability of equation (10) is by the p in the equation (4) _jReplace.

D. merging phase II and Phase I probability

The simultaneous situation of two or more the Atlantic Hurricanes can take place.In this case, need merge their attack probability in some way, generate that wherein any one can influence the bigger probability in the county of being discussed for each county i.If p _j(1) is first probability in these storms, described p to county i _j(1) takes the circumstances into consideration to use equation (8) or equation (10) and calculate.Similarly, establish p _j(2) be second respective value in these storms.If only there are two such whirlwind, then use following equation (11) to obtain to be used in the Probability p i of the merging in the price equation (4):

p _i＝p _i(1)+p _i(2)-p _i(1)p _i(2) (11)

This probability will be applied in ensuing two hurricane funds that still enliven and accept to drop into (supposing to have three or more) of equal valuely.

If the 3rd such Hurricane arranged, its probability tables to county i is shown p _j(3), the equation by the stage that is suitable for it calculates.Then according to equation (12), will be for the combined probability of county i:

p _i＝p _i(1)+p _i(2)+p _i(3) (12)

-p _i(1)p _i(2)-p _i(1)p _i(3)-p _i(2)p _i(3)+p _i(1)p _i(2)p _i (3)

This probability will be applied to ensuing (on the horizon) and still accept in three hurricane funds of input.

IV. seal the hurricane fund

When corresponding hurricane fully near ConUS when zone, the hurricane fund stops to be used for further input." fully approaching " can mean that the county to U.S.'s seashore has issued hurricane watch or hurricane warning.Because Puerto Rico is relative to ConUS with U.S. dimension archipelago, capital, so can not need other area of the U.S. is sealed to the hurricane funds of these two area sealings.Because the main track westwards of Hurricane is positioned at low latitude, so the hurricane fund that seals owing to contiguous new-world storm seals Puerto Rico and U.S. dimension archipelago, capital equally.

V. payment algorithm

The share of buying in k hurricane fund is regarded as " qualified share " by k county that lands the hurricane process of the U.S..In one example, these counties are defined by the NHC operationral report.In another example, these counties are defined as comprising " optimum trajectory " hurricane position or comprise those counties that a part connects the line of two " optimum trajectory " hurricane positions, as what described in " optimum trajectory " form that the TPC of the official Hurricane of this storm is reported.Preferably, (for example, less state and management ratios that the participant drops into) mode is determined payment, and pays this quantity to each qualified share by cut apart available hurricane fund with the number of qualified share.

May exist at the same time under the situation of a plurality of Hurricanes, according to definite priority of the time of landing the U.S. for the first time.For example, if the hurricane " Alice " of hypothesis lands afterwards at hurricane " Bob ", " Bob " will be assigned to fund 1 and " Alice " will be assigned to fund 2.

Expectation will be carried out within two weeks of the final NHC report of discussion storm the payment of qualified share.Under abnormal case, for example hurricane may strengthen and influence once more the U.S. once more, more than the hurricane disbursement from fund can be fully postpones for two weeks with hurricane fund management person's the meaning.In all cases, the hurricane disbursement from fund will be based on can carrying out in the best and nearest information of the approximately time acquisition of the storm of discussing from The National Hurricane Center, and will can not be subjected to constraint that the incident of the follow-up renewal of this information is revised.

Application about disbursement from fund

With respect to the hurricane behavior of real world, some is idealized for the rule of above-mentioned definite qualified share, and this is to come to qualified share payment hurricane fund asset in order to have available rapidly, clear, direct and automatic mode.Especially:

According to the employed definition of hurricane fund, the county that often has experience hurricane wind-force and/or other hurricane to impact does not have qualification to think " being hit " on the contrary.Especially all the more so for bigger or stronger storm.Thereby, be intended to effectively replenish its hurricane The fund investors of insuring coverage rate and also encouraged to invest in the county of periphery.For the person's of encouraging investment self-protection, glimmer or turn colors automatically in several counties that hurricane fund website will be bordered on the county with initial selection, impels the investor that its investment is expanded to (necklace) a plurality of counties on every side.So, if destroy, but the hurricane eye does not enter their county, the investor will with this we be called the mode of " necklace " and have bigger chance and from the activity of hurricane fund, make a profit.

It is definite because qualified county is based on the position of specific (may be erratic) time of storm, so at the track that is calculated (be used for determine qualified share) with actual path (for example, some months is determined after the NHC of official of this storm Hurricane report, may be tangible in the storm time of a series of weather radar images perhaps) between can the little difference of appearance.Once more, except the county (one or more) that is most interested at them, it is wise that nigh county invests.

United States Bureau of the Census's data file only is similar to the real geographical profile in many counties.They are made of line segment aggregate, thereby will can accurately not follow crooked border, county.In addition, the part in some counties (particularly relatively little island) is not included in the map boundary line file of the Census Bureau.For example, Dry Tortugas is not included in the map boundary line file of Florida, thereby, in order to determine qualified share, can not constitute automatically in the Monroe county through the hurricane of this part in Florida Monroe county and " to hit ".

VI. web site features

Preferably, will move described hurricane fund by the website, described website is according to calculating the share price automatically from the information of upgrading 4 times consultant TPC every day.Therefore, described website will be necessary not accept to short-term, prearranged, be the investment of time cycle with per 6 hours.And described website may need and can seal often on irregular basis, and this is the fresh information that provides once in a while in conjunction with the time of TPC outside 6 hour update time of routine.The length of these websites break periods depends on the speed of obtaining the NHC report, and the information of the hurricane probability of described hurricane fund is upgraded in their transmission.Even when not having the Atlantic Hurricane, also will upgrade the share price by increasing (jdate in the equation (4)) every day on date 4 times (0.25) at the intercourse of rule.

Preferably, primary entrant will need registration.Preferably, if single credit card is associated with each registration, the protection that then will access to your password is so that carry out final payment to the account.Preferably, SSN (social safety information) will be required the part as registration, the obligation to pay tax that (also may time some states) follows the tracks of any payment so that IRS.

The current share price in the county that all are available can show with the form of figure or tabulation.Preferably, can also use the map (seashore area and single state) that to click, and utilize color code to indicate the share price approx.Preferably, if desired, can also provide a state to connect the drop-down menu in a state.Preferably, giving option to the participant, to specify them be form of buying with share or the form that will drop into dollar for the input in each selected county.

Preferably, in the state of being discussed, can be by wherein issuing the input that the quota that equates defines whole state in each county from trend.This method will place more fund and be easier to affected county, for the then sharply minimizing of county (for example Rashid Sidek Sa Si) of basic 0 probability.For all counties in this state,, only be that the dollar quantity that will drop into is divided by share price sum to the quota that each county bought here according to equation (4).

Preferably, the input amount of money of date in each hurricane fund (and can be used for follow-up payment) is with revealed and continuous updating.Yet for potential entrant, it may be difficult calculating may the paying of specific input that they consider, reason is that those payments will depend on the track of the final storm of being discussed.

VII. algorithm parameter

As mentioned above, some parameters in the share price algorithm are adjustable.In one example, these parameters are carried out to give a definition before can beginning at the hurricane fund in given time.These exemplary parameter are:

The # of the hurricane fund that K=will open at first

The # in the county in the n=recreation

D=discount rate (as discussed above)

The F=factor (as discussed above) of fixing a price

For the selection of the number K of the initial hurricane fund that will carry out, the hurricane that relates to the number in the time that one or more hurricane funds do not pay and land the U.S. is more than the balance (tradeoff) between the relative number in the time of initial hurricane fund.Use the Poisson probability of the table 1 of Figure 21, these are weighed approx shown in the table 3 of Figure 23.

If all included in state counties all add recreation, then only need to specify the state that to consider to determine n.For example, Oklahoma has the county of 1 Q ≠ 0, and the Kentucky has 7.All these 8 have Q=0.01.Therefore, preferably, in described finance activities, do not comprise these states.Based on this plan, many obvious incoherent counties also can be excluded, especially in the Texas and the Arkansas State and Tennessee State.

Preferred feature

As mentioned above, according to principle of the present invention, have the different choice and the variation of a plurality of management finance activitiess.Discussed below is when management during according to the finance activities of principle of the present invention, preferred representational selection and variation, but this is optional.In general, though following exemplary preferred feature can with another compatibility, also possible is, any several in these features can contradict with further feature or be mutually exclusive.

1. influence the variable factor of at least one described investment price and described distribution/payment.Usually preferably, described variable factor comprises will be considered to invest and the time interval of incident between taking place at least, and the definition probability that predicts the outcome, and preferably, described probability is at the time set of investment.Also can be combined with other variable factor.

2. preferably, the price that the participant bears for their selected investment is to continue to change, and for example, this is owing to the variable factor that relates in the recreation of preset time.

3. preferably, in any preset time, the price that predicts the outcome arbitrarily all is identical for all participants.

4. preferably, pay according to the qualified participant of the one group of identical rule that is applied to all participants to success.In general, preferably, do not give remuneration to preferred participant.

5. all winners (qualified participant) share pot.That is to say that usually preferably, participant's investment can not be increased.And, usually preferably, be not to pay from supplier's personal account---be different from " gambling house (House) " of specific gambling activities, wherein winning stake paid from its oneself account.

6. the supplier is not as the participant.For example, usually preferably, there is not obstacle, for example, extra bid can be arranged.

The participant not with " gambling house ", i.e. supplier, competition.

8. usually preferably, described finance activities can not change in response to the quantity of investment activity.

9. described finance activities comprises individual event or the event type in given " season ".

10. usually preferably, the participant is can be when described incident is launched own objective and observe them independently.

11. usually preferably, break away from paying ability, only with form " acceptance " participant's of data layout investment.Randomly, acceptance can optionally the investment upper limit (cap) be relevant with one.Usually preferably, there is not extra restriction for each investment incident.

12. usually preferably, described finance activities can be carried out as much as possible in real time, and by rule definition, this is possible, especially occurs in the incident in the environments/systems of abundant definition and the definition of event result.Usually preferably, the incident of described finance activities is selected to be restricted to absolute minimum value one by one promptly, individual event.

13. usually preferably, described finance activities is subjected to the constraint of tropical weather events, and in one example, only is subjected to the constraint of hurricane incident.

14. usually preferably, described finance activities further is subjected to comprising at least one the constraint of incident in described landing and the described land track.In specific example, can also preferably be restricted to hurricane to described finance activities, described hurricane has particular type intensity at certain definition time of finance activities well afoot.

15. preferably, in specific example, multistage probability assessment is applied at least one in described investment and the described payment.

16. preferably, in specific example, outside objective independent sources of information is restricted to The National Hurricane Center (NHC), and randomly, can be restricted to its auxiliary and/or associated mechanisms (for example, TPC).

17. in specific example, can preferably be only limited to the U.S. and territory and manor to described finance activities.

Other preference

Except above-mentioned preferred feature, usually preferably, on the basis of ongoing, development, use graphic user interface to transmit educational information to the participant.For example, usually preferably, the participant is provided with abundant information source and excites described finance activities and the interest that improves skill.For example, usually preferably, on ongoing basis, can provide the live report of the objective independent sources of information in various outsides to the participant.For example, can on plane map, show the intensity of storm position and variation, and their projection path.For example, the data of this type can obtain from The National Hurricane Center.Can also show other contest prediction, preferably, on general map, show with different colors from other independent source.

Along with storm is advanced and change in location, preferably, can on ongoing basis, show the calculating of the present price that is upgraded, and can make the participant obtain any required qualification hypothesis.

And, usually preferably, current the dollar of specific geographical area investment and the historical probability or the probability of this geographic area are shown together, if the development of storm as being predicted thus just makes participant and interested observer may come to determine how to obtain under given conditions to pay.For example, based on historical data and/or last-period forecast, for the payment of given geographic area can reflect the different time of investment, in whole finance activities different capital fund total amount, the different seriousness grades or the further feature of storm, and described storm will hit the probability of area-of-interest.Equally usually preferably, participant and interested observer can the visit data windows, and described data window illustrates current investment funds total amount, and the geographic area profile with a plurality of investments that the local zone is carried out.

Usually preferably, described finance activities has the education and study assembly and strengthens the knowledge and skills that the participant is used for improving its financial status.This knowledge and skills grade also will help the participant to deal with to be subjected to the reality of potential harmful storm active constraint.Equally usually preferably, described finance activities shows Useful Information to the participant, for example needs the project list of preparing for threat incident on the horizon.These inventories can help to arrange participant's activity in the available setup time that reduces.If desired, public viewing area is asked for and be distributed on to inventory information from the participant.In another example, the life-threatening destruction that can also provide a viewing area that continuous renewal is shown is estimated, and similar public security relevant information.

Though described and described in detail illustrative embodiments of the present invention at this, it will be apparent to one skilled in the art that, under the situation that does not deviate from spirit of the present invention, can carry out various modifications, replenish and substitute etc., and think that these fall within subsequently the defined scope of the present invention of claim.For example, can be integrated into various communication functions and carry out one or more communication tasks in one or more communication units.

Claims

1. method based on the finance activities between tropical weather events management supplier and a plurality of participant comprises:

Be used to obtain the method for described participant to the result's of described tropical weather events predicted data;

Be used to obtain the method for described participant's investment funds;

Be used for method at the total described participant's of pond accumulation investment funds;

Be used for obtaining method about the external information of described tropical weather events from outside independent sources of information;

Be used for described participant's predicted data and described external information are compared the method that determines whether to exist matching result; And

Be used for distributing to participant the method for fund with matching result from described pond.

2. the method for claim 1 wherein has the shared equal distribution from described pond of participant of matching result.

3. the method for claim 1 comprises that further the matching result based on described comparison step distributes numerical value to described participant; And

Wherein distribute fund to comprise the numerical value that is assigned with according to the participant with matching result and from described pond, distribute fund to them.

4. the method for claim 1, the investment funds that wherein obtains described participant is included as each participant and sets the investment price.

5. method as claimed in claim 4 further comprises in described investment price and the described distribution fund at least one is used at least one variable factor.

6. method as claimed in claim 5, wherein said at least one variable factor comprises following at least one in the two: the time interval between participant's investment and described tropical weather events take place, and the matching result probability that predict the outcome of described participant when investment.

7. the method for claim 1, wherein obtain external information comprise obtain about described tropical weather events land with the land track at least one information.

8. the method for claim 1 further comprises from described outside independent sources of information and obtains predicted data about described tropical weather events.

9. method as claimed in claim 7, wherein said tropical weather events are included in the Hurricane that the U.S. and territory and manor thereof take place.

10. method as claimed in claim 3, further comprise according to multistage probability assessment, be at least one variable factor of described dispensing applications of each participant with matching result, described multistage probability is relevant with the different probability of the matching result of different time points.

11. the method for claim 1 is wherein distributed fund to comprise to use one group of rule to all participants to the participant with matching result from described pond and is determined their distribution fund.

12. the method for claim 1 further comprises from described outside independent sources of information and obtains historical data about past of described tropical weather events type torrid zone weather events.

13. the method for claim 1, wherein said supplier does not add described finance activities as the participant.

14. the method for claim 1, the investment funds that wherein obtains described participant comprises to each participant sets the investment price, is identical for the identical price that predicts the outcome for all participants in preset time wherein.

15. the method for claim 1 further comprises and determines that described participant adds the qualification of described finance activities.

16. method as claimed in claim 15, wherein determine qualification that described participant adds described finance activities comprise determine described participant about understand tropical weather events technical ability.

17. method as claimed in claim 15 determines that wherein the qualification that described participant adds described finance activities comprises the zone that defines tropical weather events, and obtains the relevant information with the proprietary of described participant in described tropical weather events zone.

18. method as claimed in claim 15 further comprises by obtaining described participant the answer of the relevant issues of tropical weather events is determined that described participant adds the qualification of described finance activities.

19. method as claimed in claim 15, the qualification that wherein definite described participant adds described finance activities comprises the finance data that obtains about described participant.

20. the method for claim 1 further comprises the identity of obtaining described participant.

21. one kind is used to the method that the person of letting on adds the finance activities that comprises a plurality of other participants, described finance activities is managed based on tropical weather events by the supplier, and described method comprises:

Be used to make the method for described participant's reception about the information of described tropical weather events;

Be used to make described participant to provide about described tropical weather events result's the predicted data and the method for investment funds;

Be used to make described participant to obtain the method for indication from described supplier, described indication is about described participant's predicted data and matching result from the comparison of the tropical weather events data of outside independent sources of information; And

Be used for making described participant to receive the method for fund from total pond, described total pond comprises described participant's investment funds at least in part.

22. method as claimed in claim 21 comprises that further described participant receives a numerical value based on matching result from described supplier, wherein the fund that is received by the participant distributes according to described numerical value.

23. method as claimed in claim 21 wherein provides investment funds to comprise from described supplier and receives the investment price and pay investment funds according to described investment price.

24. method as claimed in claim 23 comprises that further one of fund amount of receiving to described investment price with by the participant with matching result uses at least one variable factor from described total pond.

25. method as claimed in claim 24, wherein said at least one variable factor comprises following at least one in the two: the time interval between participant's investment and described tropical weather events take place, and the described participant determined matching result probability that predicts the outcome when investment greatly.

26. method as claimed in claim 21 further comprises and determines that described participant adds the qualification of described finance activities.

27. method as claimed in claim 26 is determined wherein that qualification that described participant adds described finance activities comprises and is determined the relevant technical ability of described participant about the natural time of understanding the natural event type.

28. method as claimed in claim 26, the qualification that wherein definite described participant adds described finance activities comprises the zone that defines natural event, and obtains the relevant information of proprietary in described natural event zone with described participant.

29. method as claimed in claim 26 further comprises by obtaining described participant the answer of the relevant issues of natural event is determined that described participant adds the qualification of described finance activities.

30. method as claimed in claim 26, the qualification that wherein definite described participant adds described finance activities comprises the finance data that obtains about described participant.

31. the system based on tropical weather events management finance activities comprises:

The finance activities module is used to promote the finance activities between supplier and a plurality of participant, receives outside tropical weather events information from outside independent sources of information, and provides finance activities information to described participant;

At least one communication module is used for the communication between described finance activities module and outside independent sources of information, so that receive the tropical weather events information in described outside from described outside independent sources of information;

Described at least one communication module further provides the communication between described finance activities module and the described participant, is used for from the predicted data of described participant's reception about described tropical weather events;

Comparison module is used for described participant's the tropical weather events information of predicted data and described outside is compared, and the indication of matching result is provided to described participant; With

Distribution module is used for distributing fund from the total pond of described participant's fund to the participant with matching result from collection.

32. system as claimed in claim 31, wherein said at least one communication module further comprises the configuration that is used for to the indication of each participant's passing time, one of them of payment that wherein said supplier received described participant's predicted data and described participant under the situation of investment price is being arranged in the described time.

33. manufacturing article that comprise machine readable media, described machine readable media make computer system manage finance activities between supplier and a plurality of participant based on tropical weather events, described manufacturing article comprise:

Be used to manage the module of the finance activities between supplier and a plurality of participant, be used for receiving tropical weather events information, and provide finance activities information to described participant from outside independent sources of information;

At least one communication module is used to manage the communication activity that communicates between finance activities module and outside independent sources of information, so that receive described tropical weather events information from described outside independent sources of information;

Described at least one communication module communicates between described finance activities module and described participant, is used for from the predicted data of described participant's reception about described tropical weather events;

Be used for described participant's the predicted data and the module that compares of described tropical weather events; And

Described at least one communication module further communicates between described finance activities module and described participant; be used for providing the matching result indication of the matching result of step based on the comparison to described participant; and will be to the participant's indication that has from the protection result of described comparison step from total pond to the fund part of paying, collect from described participant in described total pond.