CN101159968A - GSM mobile network extension calculating method - Google Patents
GSM mobile network extension calculating method Download PDFInfo
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- CN101159968A CN101159968A CNA2007101852634A CN200710185263A CN101159968A CN 101159968 A CN101159968 A CN 101159968A CN A2007101852634 A CNA2007101852634 A CN A2007101852634A CN 200710185263 A CN200710185263 A CN 200710185263A CN 101159968 A CN101159968 A CN 101159968A
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Abstract
The invention relates to an actuarial calculation method for GMS mobile network capacity expansion. The method comprises the following steps: (1) data acquisition: a. collecting performance data of network-wide cells (that is dynamic data), and b. collecting configuration data of network-wide cells (that is static data); (2) data correction and integration; (3) prediction of network-wide traffic; (4) prediction of cell traffic; (5) prediction of cell configuration; (6) prediction of network-wide configuration; and (7) generation and display of results. The invention has the advantages that: the invention realizes the accurate prediction of the development of wireless traffic service and multi-stage implementation of wireless network capacity expansion, shortens the construction period, and realizes the on-time on-demand network construction; the inventive method involves each cell and each carrier frequency, approximating the reality as possible, and loads increased call traffic under the premise of ensuring a certain quality, thereby improving the prediction accuracy and precision and increasing the equipment utilization rate.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of GMS mobile network extension calculating method, be applicable to mobile communications network.
Background technology
Network capacity extension actuarial is for the wireless traffic traffic carrying capacity of tackling following GMS mobile network increases, and based on traffic forecast, provides networking dilatation construction scheme, and scheme comprises that the dilatation of single subdistrict tears the detail in spare time and the dilatation total amount of the whole network open.There is following difficult point in providing of network capacity extension scheme:
(1) quantity of sub-district is big: a subordinate's of province company sub-district easily several ten thousand, by traditional dilatation solution formulation based on experience, can only the focal point zone, can't accomplish to take a comprehensive view of the situation as a whole, and not guarantee of accuracy, cause the waste of speech quality decline or resource.
(2) type of sub-district is many: the sub-district can be divided into some classes according to distributed areas, landform of living in, surrounding population etc., and the fluctuation of telephone traffic has characteristics separately.To provide different strategies at dissimilar sub-districts.
(3) regularity of sub-district is poor: the factor that influences the sub-district traffic carried is numerous, festivals or holidays, colleges and universities the new term begins has a holiday or vacation, great rally activity even market sales promotion, the wedding celebration on lucky day all can cause the telephone traffic of certain sub-district unusual.Great majority are again the traffic variation that unpredictable, general Forecasting Methodology can't be discerned and reject so cause in these factors, impact prediction result's accuracy.
(4) the historical data amount is big: the formulation of dilatation scheme is to be foundation with a large amount of historical datas, and the data of minimum granularity are that cell data just had ten thousand of 10-20 in one day, be very high to system's requirements on Construction.Artificial prediction can only be foundation with the combined data then, and its result's precision will be had a greatly reduced quality.
In a word, network capacity extension actuarial is exactly to seek rule from the big mass data of vibration frequency height, amplitude, accurately predicts, and formulates network capacity extension scheme on this basis.
At present, network capacity extension actuarial is by artificial prediction, and it is by traditional Forecasting Methodology based on experience, can only be foundation with the combined data, and its shortcoming is that the precision that predicts the outcome is low, and is preparatory poor.
Summary of the invention
Technical problem to be solved by this invention provides a kind of have degree of precision and preparatory GMS mobile network extension calculating method.
The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems:
Method step of the present invention is as follows:
One, data acquisition:
(1) the whole network estate performance data are Dynamic Data Acquiring:
The content of image data includes carrier frequency number, traffic channel number, telephone traffic and congestion ratio; The time requirement of data is the historical data at least two years; The mode of image data is for to set up interface with telephone traffic network, and interface shape is any in FTP interface, the database interface, and data acquisition program obtains data file from specified server, and imports to system database;
(2) the whole network cell configuration data is the static data collection:
The content of image data includes network element attaching relation, geography information, the cover type of sub-district; The mode of data acquisition is that batch data imports, and system provides the file upload function, and the user uploads the EXCEL file of specified format, and data acquisition program imports to system database with it;
Two, data correction and gathering:
(1) data correction:
The method of data correction is: getting the telephone traffic in a nearest week and the weighted average of traffic channel is fiducial value, 0.8-1.2 with fiducial value doubly is reasonable fluctuation range, telephone traffic to certain day is revised, promptly less than 0.8 times of fiducial value, according to 0.8 times of calculating of fiducial value; Greater than 1.2 times of fiducial value, according to 1.2 times of calculating of fiducial value; Between the two, do not deal with;
(2) data gather:
It is with the attaching relation of initial data according to network element, region, time dimension that data gather, and is aggregated into varigrained data, shows and dilatation prediction use for form; Comprise 1. 2. 3. level (MSC promptly moves exchange) of level (BSC is a base station controller), MSC of level (BTS is the base station), BSC of BTS gathering on the network element dimension; Gathering on the dimension of region comprises local level; Gathering on the time dimension is that the data with hour level are aggregated into a day level;
Three, the whole network traffic forecast:
(1) the whole network telephone traffic three rank polynomial predictions:
Data are got the telephone traffic of the whole network when busy, and generate the combined data of revising according to above-mentioned modification method; Combined data is done three rank fitting of a polynomials, obtain curvilinear equation y=ax
2+ bx+c; Wherein y is the whole network prediction telephone traffic, and x is the fate apart from the zero-time of historical data; With the above-mentioned equation of time substitution, obtain the whole network prediction telephone traffic;
(2) seasonal factor correction:
Modification method is the traffic variation trend with reference to the historical same period, revise the whole network prediction telephone traffic that obtains in the above-mentioned steps, promptly predict telephone traffic historical same period telephone traffic and above-mentioned curvilinear equation have a difference DELTA y at the traffic value of this time point, the whole network prediction telephone traffic y of seasonal factor correction
1Just equal above-mentioned three rank polynomial predistortion measured value y and add this difference DELTA y, i.e. y
1=y+ Δ y;
(3) major event configuration:
The time that configuration can cause the telephone traffic unusual fluctuations as the Mid-autumn Festival, the Spring Festival, May Day, ten first-class;
(4) major event correction:
On the basis of seasonal factor correction, to the correction that tries again of the whole network in the time period of major event prediction telephone traffic; Modification method is the amplification n and the telephone traffic y of this time period of the prediction year the previous year same period with reference to this time period the first two years of prediction year
2, obtain predicting year should the time period telephone traffic y
3=y
2* n; Get y
3With the revised the whole network prediction of seasonal factor telephone traffic y
1Mean value, as prediction year should the time period final prediction telephone traffic y
0
(5) the whole network traffic forecast result:
The three rank polynomial predistortion measured values of every day to prediction year are done seasonal factor correction and major event correction respectively, the whole network prediction telephone traffic that obtains predicting year;
Four, the traffic forecast of sub-district:
(1) these cell telephone traffic amount three rank polynomial predictions:
Data are got revised telephone traffic when busy in this sub-district, and the cell telephone traffic amount is done three rank fitting of a polynomials, obtain curvilinear equation y=ax
2+ bx+c; Wherein y is the telephone traffic of sub-district, and x is the fate apart from the zero-time of historical data; With the above-mentioned equation of time substitution, can obtain sub-district prediction telephone traffic;
(2) Location factor correction:
Utilize the whole network prediction telephone traffic of this sub-district affiliated area that this sub-district prediction telephone traffic is revised; The correction data of sub-district are done three rank polynomial curve fittings, obtain preliminary sub-district prediction telephone traffic y
1Cell channel is counted x
1The whole network prediction telephone traffic y
2The whole network number of channel x
2According to the revised sub-district prediction of weighted average algorithm telephone traffic y
3=(y
1* x
1+ y
2* x
2)/(x
1+ x
2) * x
1Obtain the prediction telephone traffic y of sub-district according to the method for every line telephone traffic
4=y
2/ x
2* x
1Final sub-district prediction telephone traffic y
0=(y
3+ y
4)/2;
(3) the prediction telephone traffic of preservation sub-district:
(4) the cell parameter configuration is sub-district utilance thresholding, the percent of call lost, congestion ratio configuration:
Sub-district utilance thresholding is two percentages, and promptly the peak use rate of sub-district and minimum utilance are used to calculate the design maximum telephone traffic and the minimal design telephone traffic of this sub-district; The percent of call lost, congestion ratio are used for searching according to ERLANG B the configuration of this sub-district;
(5) calculate the design telephone traffic of this sub-district:
The design telephone traffic of the utilance=sub-district of prediction telephone traffic/sub-district, sub-district;
Five, cell configuration prediction:
(1) search cell configuration:
In ERLANG B, search and satisfy that design telephone traffic in sub-district requires, and the configuration information of the percent of call lost and the sub-district of congestion ratio in the configuration requirement scope, i.e. carrier frequency number and traffic channel number;
(2) cell configuration change:
The above-mentioned result that obtains and the community configured information of existing network of tabling look-up compared, obtain the configuration change situation of sub-district;
Six, the whole network configuration prediction:
Above-mentioned forecasting process is done in all sub-districts, predict the outcome through gathering the configuration that obtains the whole network; Content comprises that the whole network has N sub-district to need dilatation, and a dilatation n carrier frequency has M sub-district to tear open the spare time altogether, tears a not busy m carrier frequency altogether open;
Seven, generating the result shows:
Show that by man-machine interface report query, traffic forecast, carrier frequency resource distribute, the investment statistics report.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is as follows:
(1) can evade network risks, keep the network sustainable and healthy development:
This method can realize the accurate prediction to the wireless traffic development, and the dilatation of realization wireless network is implemented step by step, shortens the construction period, carry out networking as required on time, and constantly network is evaluated and optimized, realize promoting network service quality, reduce the purpose of network investment cost; Can dissolve network risks.
(2) can put into practice precise management, improve the core competitiveness of enterprise:
This method carefully to change to each sub-district, every cover carrier frequency, and can accomplish approachingly with reality as far as possible, and under the certain mass prerequisite, bear the telephone traffic of growth, thereby improved accuracy of predicting and accuracy greatly, improved usage ratio of equipment.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is a theory diagram of the present invention.
Embodiment
Embodiment (with Shijiazhuang City for exemplifying example explanation):
According to the data of Shijiazhuang City 2005 and 2006, predict network capacity extension plan in 2007.
The method of concrete network capacity extension actuarial gets final product according to the method step concrete operations in the technical scheme in the foregoing invention content part.
Claims (1)
1.GMS mobile network extension calculating method is characterized in that its method step is as follows:
One, data acquisition:
(1) the whole network estate performance data are Dynamic Data Acquiring:
The content of image data includes carrier frequency number, traffic channel number, telephone traffic and congestion ratio; The time requirement of data is the historical data at least two years; The mode of image data is for to set up interface with telephone traffic network, and interface shape is any in FTP interface, the database interface, and data acquisition program obtains data file from specified server, and imports to system database;
(2) the whole network cell configuration data is the static data collection:
The content of image data includes network element attaching relation, geography information, the cover type of sub-district; The mode of data acquisition is that batch data imports, and system provides the file upload function, and the user uploads the EXCEL file of specified format, and data acquisition program imports to system database with it;
Two, data correction and gathering:
(1) data correction:
The method of data correction is: getting the telephone traffic in a nearest week and the weighted average of traffic channel is fiducial value, 0.8-1.2 with fiducial value doubly is reasonable fluctuation range, telephone traffic to certain day is revised, promptly less than 0.8 times of fiducial value, according to 0.8 times of calculating of fiducial value; Greater than 1.2 times of fiducial value, according to 1.2 times of calculating of fiducial value; Between the two, do not deal with;
(2) data gather:
It is with the attaching relation of initial data according to network element, region, time dimension that data gather, and is aggregated into varigrained data, shows and dilatation prediction use for form; Comprise gathering on the network element dimension BTS 1. the level, BSC 2. the level, MSC 3. the level; Gathering on the dimension of region comprises local level; Gathering on the time dimension is that the data with hour level are aggregated into a day level;
Three, the whole network traffic forecast:
(1) the whole network telephone traffic three rank polynomial predictions:
Data are got the telephone traffic of the whole network when busy, and generate the combined data of revising according to above-mentioned modification method; Combined data is done three rank fitting of a polynomials, obtain curvilinear equation y=ax
2+ bx+c; Wherein y is the whole network prediction telephone traffic, and x is the fate apart from the zero-time of historical data; With the above-mentioned equation of time substitution, obtain the whole network prediction telephone traffic;
(2) seasonal factor correction:
Modification method is the traffic variation trend with reference to the historical same period, revise the whole network prediction telephone traffic that obtains in the above-mentioned steps, promptly predict telephone traffic historical same period telephone traffic and above-mentioned curvilinear equation have a difference DELTA y at the traffic value of this time point, the whole network prediction telephone traffic y of seasonal factor correction
1Just equal above-mentioned three rank polynomial predistortion measured value y and add this difference DELTA y, i.e. y
1=y+ Δ y;
(3) major event configuration:
The time that configuration can cause the telephone traffic unusual fluctuations as the Mid-autumn Festival, the Spring Festival, May Day, ten first-class;
(4) major event correction:
On the basis of seasonal factor correction, to the correction that tries again of the whole network in the time period of major event prediction telephone traffic; Modification method is the amplification n and the telephone traffic y of this time period of the prediction year the previous year same period with reference to this time period the first two years of prediction year
2, obtain predicting year should the time period telephone traffic y
3=y
2* n; Get y
3With the revised the whole network prediction of seasonal factor telephone traffic y
1Mean value, as prediction year should the time period final prediction telephone traffic y
0
(5) the whole network traffic forecast result:
The three rank polynomial predistortion measured values of every day to prediction year are done seasonal factor correction and major event correction respectively, the whole network prediction telephone traffic that obtains predicting year;
Four, the traffic forecast of sub-district:
(1) these cell telephone traffic amount three rank polynomial predictions:
Data are got revised telephone traffic when busy in this sub-district, and the cell telephone traffic amount is done three rank fitting of a polynomials, obtain curvilinear equation y=ax
2+ bx+c; Wherein y is the telephone traffic of sub-district, and x is the fate apart from the zero-time of historical data; With the above-mentioned equation of time substitution, can obtain sub-district prediction telephone traffic;
(2) Location factor correction:
Utilize the whole network prediction telephone traffic of this sub-district affiliated area that this sub-district prediction telephone traffic is revised; The correction data of sub-district are done three rank polynomial curve fittings, obtain preliminary sub-district prediction telephone traffic y
1Cell channel is counted x
1The whole network prediction telephone traffic y
2The whole network number of channel x
2According to the revised sub-district prediction of weighted average algorithm telephone traffic y
3=(y
1* x
1+ y
2* x
2)/(x
1+ x
2) * x
1Obtain the prediction telephone traffic y of sub-district according to the method for every line telephone traffic
4=y
2/ x
2* x
1Final sub-district prediction telephone traffic y
o=(y
3+ y
4)/2;
(3) the prediction telephone traffic of preservation sub-district:
(4) the cell parameter configuration is sub-district utilance thresholding, the percent of call lost, congestion ratio configuration:
Sub-district utilance thresholding is two percentages, and promptly the peak use rate of sub-district and minimum utilance are used to calculate the design maximum telephone traffic and the minimal design telephone traffic of this sub-district; The percent of call lost, congestion ratio are used for searching according to ERLANG B the configuration of this sub-district;
(5) calculate the design telephone traffic of this sub-district:
The design telephone traffic of the utilance=sub-district of prediction telephone traffic/sub-district, sub-district;
Five, cell configuration prediction:
(1) search cell configuration:
In ERLANG B, search and satisfy that design telephone traffic in sub-district requires, and the configuration information of the percent of call lost and the sub-district of congestion ratio in the configuration requirement scope, i.e. carrier frequency number and traffic channel number;
(2) cell configuration change:
The above-mentioned result that obtains and the community configured information of existing network of tabling look-up compared, obtain the configuration change situation of sub-district;
Six, the whole network configuration prediction:
Above-mentioned forecasting process is done in all sub-districts, predict the outcome through gathering the configuration that obtains the whole network; Content comprises that the whole network has N sub-district to need dilatation, and a dilatation n carrier frequency has M sub-district to tear open the spare time altogether, tears a not busy m carrier frequency altogether open;
Seven, generating the result shows:
Show that by man-machine interface report query, traffic forecast, carrier frequency resource distribute, the investment statistics report.
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