AU2021103183A4 - Medium and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for transnational interconnected power market - Google Patents
Medium and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for transnational interconnected power market Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a medium and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for
a transnational interconnected power market, which comprises the following steps of: firstly,
determining the annual contract power transaction of various energy sources in various
countries according to the investigation results; Under the bilateral trading model of
"centralized matching and decentralized trading", considering the problems of transmission
cost, new energy and political factors, the two sides of the transaction are matched with the
goal of maximizing social welfare, and the annual trading situation between countries is
determined; According to the forecast of monthly electricity price and supply and demand
situation, the penalty term of power shortage is added into the objective function with the best
economy, and the annual trading power is allocated to the month. The transaction optimization
model proposed in the invention can be applied to the medium and long-term transactions in
the interconnected power market under the background of global energy Internet, providing a
theoretical basis for the realization of large-scaletransnational energy optimal allocation,
thereby alleviating the increasingly severe environmental and energy problems in the global
scope brought by the traditional power generation mode, and engineering practitioners can
carry out relevant research work accordingly.
1/1
FIGURES
Price
Market clearing price
Winn ing bid quantity of buyer Trading
volume
A-~Wnmng bidquantityof seller
Fig. 1 A schematic diagram of high and low matching.
Fig. 2a A schematic diagram of five countries in northeast Asia.
Fig. 2b A schematic diagram of channel disconnection.
Description
1/1
Price
Market clearing price
volume Winn ing bid quantity of buyer Trading A-~Wnmng bidquantityof seller
Fig. 1 A schematic diagram of high and low matching.
Fig. 2a A schematic diagram of five countries in northeast Asia.
Fig. 2b A schematic diagram of channel disconnection.
Medium and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for transnational
interconnected power market
The invention belongs to the power market field of power systems, and mainly relates to
the design and simulation of middle and long-term transaction model in a transnational
power market which comprehensively considers new energy sources, transmission costs
and political factors.
Under the background of global energy Internet, the interconnected power grid is
composed of transnational and intercontinental backbone grids and power grids of
various voltage levels in various countries, connecting large-scale energy bases in various
continents, providing a foundation for realizing the optimal allocation of energy among
regions; With the advancement of power market reform in various countries, it is possible
to realize transnational power transactions, realize energy optimal allocation in a large
scale, and alleviate the increasingly severe global environmental problems brought by
traditional power generation modes.
Since the 1990s, the world has set off an upsurge of power market reform. Countries led
by European and American countries, combined with the national conditions and the
actual development of the power industry, have continuously adjusted and improved the
ideas and modes of power market construction, so as to promote the low-carbon
transformation of the power industry and society and realize the safe and efficient supply
of energy. On the whole, foreign wholesale power markets can be summarized as centralized transactions and decentralized transactions, and these successful examples provide valuable reference for future transnational transactions.
Electricity production has certain uncertainty, which may not only cause excessive
fluctuation of electricity price, but even cause insufficient power supply. At present, the
perfect electricity wholesale market is mainly composed of sub-markets with different
time scales, including medium and long-term market, day market, day market and real
time market. Medium and long-term contract trading plans are made according to the data
reported by market members. For the transnational transcontinental power market with
complex environment, it is necessary to ensure the orderly operation of power market, the
stability of power supply and electricity price by signing medium and long-term
contracts.
The theory of portfolio optimization is one of the core contents of modem finance, and it
is a research hotspot of applied mathematics in the field of financial investment in recent
decades,It mainly studies how to effectively allocate the assets held by investors in
various complicated and uncertain environments in order to achieve the balance between
maximizing the expected return of assets and minimizing the risk. In 1952, Harry
M.Markowitz first revealed from the perspective of mathematical economics how to
reduce risks by diversifying investment and how to choose the optimal portfolio by using
the effective boundary of portfolio, which pioneered modern financial theory and
investment analysis theory,Since then, many Chinese scholars have made a series of
improvements and improvements based on this model. The construction status of power
industry, the development status of power market, the distribution of energy and supply
and demand are different in different countries, and the return-to-return ratio of power transaction is different in each sub-market,Therefore, according to the theory of portfolio optimization, market members rationally allocate trading volume in sub-markets to improve their own benefits. Cross-border interconnected power grid trading is different from conventional transnational trading, and the transmission costs and losses caused by long-distance transmission are considerable.
At present, there is still a lack of research on the trading mechanism of transnational
interconnected power market, which aiming at the power trading of transnational
interconnected power grid analysis, modeling and simulation are carried out.
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a medium and long-term transaction
optimization method suitable for cross-border interconnected power markets.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following
technical scheme:
1) According to the information including power supply and demand status of each
member of the cross-border interconnected power market, unit data, quotation data, unit
maintenance plan, and transmission channel capacity, with the goal of maximizing social
welfare, the transaction is matched through the principle of high-low matching, and the
medium and long-term contract transaction power of the pairing parties is determined;
Considering the optimal economic efficiency of power supply and the load demand
situation, the medium and long-term contract transaction power of the paired parties is
allocated according to the time period.
Preferably, in step 1), a medium-and long-term transaction optimization model is
established with the maximum social welfare as the objective function, and the medium- and long-term transaction optimization model is solved according to the declared electricity price and the annual contract transaction electricity quantity of both parties to the transaction, so as to obtain the transaction matching among market transaction members formed according to the principle of high-low matching; The medium-and long term transaction optimization model is expressed as:
1) Objective function:
max(1) j=1 i=1
2) Constraints:
(2) j=1 Z 3,: 1 Vi, Vj
Vi ,j>0 (4)
Where m and n are the number of buyers and sellers; Vij is the amount of electricity
purchased by the buyer i from the sellerj; Bi(Vij) is the total expenditure of electricity
purchaser i; Sj(Vij) is the total sales revenue of the seller j;Vfi,max is the maximum
power purchase declared by the power purchaser I; Vsj,max is the maximum amount of
electricity sold declared by the seller j.
Preferably, considering the potential transaction economic loss caused by political
factors, the potential transaction economic loss is added to the objective function in the
form of risk cost, and the following medium-and long-term transaction optimization
model is obtained:
1) Objective function: n m N maxjY B,(V 1 )-S - CN (5) j=1 i=1 1=1
CPR=I CR,k (6) k&
CPRk=caVkY(100-R)kEJ (7)
2) Constraints:
Vgminr,b:Vgr,b:Vgmax,r,bbEB,rER (8)
-Skmax Vk/tk Skmax kEJb (9)
In which a is the risk coefficient, VkY is the annual transmission power of channel k, Rk
is the political risk index corresponding to channel k, Rk is the average value of
political risk indexes of two countries or regions connected by channel k, CPR,k is the
political risk cost corresponding to channel k, J is the set of transmission channels, J
represents the set of channels connected with country or region b; B represents the set
of all countries and regions, Vgmin ,r ,b andVgmax ,r, are the minimum and maximum
power generation of the rth power generation mode in country or region b, R represents
the set of power generation modes,Vg,r,bis the actual power generation of the rthpower
generation mode in country or region b, Vk is the power flow of channel k between
countries or regions expressed by electricity, tk represents the utilization hours of
channel k, and Skmax represents the transmission capacity of channel k.
Preferably, when transactions between countries or regions are interrupted due to political
factors, on the premise of considering the capacity of power transmission channels, the
annual contract transaction power and its distribution between countries or regions are
coordinated and corrected by re-solving the medium-and long-term transaction
optimization model shown in Formula 5 to Formula 9.
Preferably, the two parties to the transaction convert the transmission grid loss and the
transmission network fee caused by the long-distance transmission and transfer of electric
energy into the declared electricity price on the power generation side.
Preferably, according to the current status of the power industry and supply and demand
of each country or region in the interconnected region, combined with investment
portfolio optimization theory, determine the medium and long-term (for example, annual)
contract transaction power of various power generation methods including new energy in
each country or region.
Preferably, the step 2) specifically comprises the following steps:
2. 1) According to the forecast of monthly electricity price, the monthly electricity
distribution optimization model with the lowest generation cost of thermal power units is
established, and its monthly electricity distribution objective function is: 12 ni m rninI = ,',-,(10) t I i- j-I
Among them, ki,t is the forecast value of the electricity price of the electricity purchaser i
at the monthly t, and Vit is the monthly transaction electricity of both the electricity
purchaser i and the electricity seller j at the monthly t.
2. 2) According to the power load prediction results of the power supply area, introduce
the lack of power penalty term in the monthly power distribution objective function, and
then optimize the monthly power distribution results; introduce the monthly power
distribution objective function of the lack of power penalty term expressed as:
12 ni m minYI A-V, +EENS*VOLL (11) t=1 i= j=1
EENS= ( E JK O (12)
Wherein, EENS and VOLL are power shortage expectation and power shortage penalty
coefficient, respectively, and Vi,'j,t are load prediction values of monthly t of power
purchaser i.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
Based on the global energy Internet, the invention designs a medium-and long-term
trading model suitable for the transnational power market, which can improve the social
welfare of trading, promote thetransnational optimal allocation of resources, and
provide theoretical basis and reference basis for the design of the transnational
transcontinental power trading mechanism under the global energy Internet background.
Further, by considering transaction costs, new energy and political factors,
thetransnational optimal allocation of resources can be improved.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of high and low matching.
Fig. 2a is a schematic diagram of five countries in northeast Asia.
Fig. 2b is a schematic diagram of channel disconnection.
The invention will be further described in detail with reference to the drawings and
examples.
By fully studying the influence mechanism of political risk, new energy uncertainty,
long-distance transmission and other factors on transnational power transaction, the
invention designs a medium-and long-term transaction model suitable for transnational
interconnected power market, and selects Japan, South Korea in Northeast Asia, North
China and Northeast China, North Korea and Mongolia as study areas for simulation analysis, which shows the rationality of the model. The method can fill the gap in the design of the transaction mode of the transnational power market under the background of global energy interconnection, and provide reference for the design of the transaction mode of the transnational power market under the background of global energy interconnection.
(I) The basic content
1) According to the power supply and demand situation of each market member, the
declared basic unit data, the quotation data, the unit maintenance plan and the capacity
information of the transmission channel, taking the maximum social welfare as the goal
(transaction objective function), the transaction is matched according to the principle of
high-low matching and matching, and the annual transaction volume of both parties is
determined; Specifically, it includes:
1.1) According to the research results of the power industry and the current situation of
supply and demand in the study area, combined with the portfolio optimization theory,
determine the medium and long-term contract transaction volume of various power
generation modes in various countries;
1.2) It is stipulated that both parties to the transaction should fully consider the
transmission costs such as transmission loss caused by long-distance transmission and
transfer of electric energy when quoting, and convert the transmission costs into the
electricity price for later matching transactions;
1.3) Taking the maximum social welfare as the overall objective function, according to
the quotation and electricity quantity of both parties to the transaction, the transaction matching between members of the market transaction is formed according to the principle of high and low matching.
2) According to the forecast situation of electricity price, taking the optimal economy as
the monthly distribution objective function of annual trading electricity, the annual
trading electricity is distributed; According to the load prediction of power supply area,
the penalty term of power shortage is added to the monthly distribution objective function
to optimize the distribution result;
2.1) When calculating the power generation cost, ignore the power generation cost of
clean energy such as hydropower and wind power, and according to the forecast of
monthly electricity price, take coal-fired thermal power units as an example, establish the
monthly electricity distribution objective function with the lowest power generation cost;
2.2) According to the forecast result of power load in the power supply area, the penalty
item of power shortage is introduced to optimize the distribution result of monthly power.
3) When considering the political factors between countries, add the transaction
economic losses brought by political factors to the transaction objective function in the
form of risk cost, and re-match the transactions between countries or regions; When the
transaction between countries or regions is interrupted due to political problems, under
the premise of considering the capacity of power transmission channels, the transaction
power between countries is coordinated and revised again according to the transaction
objective function; And distribute the annual trading power to months.
(II) Specific introduction
1. Firstly, we investigate the interconnection of power grids and the distribution of
resources in the power market of the study area, and determine the trading mode adopted according to the actual situation,The following is an example of the mode of "centralized matching and decentralized trading".
2. Require both parties to declare the price: the price includes the consideration of
transmission network loss and network crossing fee, and the declared price is uniformly
converted on the power generation side, so as to facilitate the subsequent matching
transaction.
3. Taking the maximum social welfare as the objective function, according to the price
and transaction volume declaration of each market participant, the two sides of the
transaction are matched.
(1) Objective function:
max J [B, (V)- Sj (1) j=1 i=1
(2) Constraints:
Z j-1 vi~V2 ,1 Vi (2)
(3)
Vij>o (4)
m, n - the number of buyers and sellers;
Vi j - the amount of electricity purchased by the buyer i from the seller j (optimized
variable);
Bi(Vi j) the total expenditure of electricity purchaser i;
Sj(Vi ,j) the total sales revenue of the seller j;
VBi ,max - the maximum power purchase declared by the power purchaser i;
VSj ,max - the maximum amount of electricity sold declared by the seller j;
Formula (2) and (3) are the power constraints of both parties to the transaction;
Formula (4) defines that the transaction between both parties is unidirectional.
(3) The principle of high and low matching:
The sellers are ranked according to the quotation from low to high, and the buyers are
ranked according to the quotation from high to low, and the two parties of the transaction
are matched according to the priority from high to low-that is, the transaction between
the buyer and the seller with the highest priority is first matched, and then the transaction
is matched The transactions of market members with the second highest priority, and so
on, the principle of matching is shown in Figure 1.
4. Political factors may lead to the interruption of transactions between the two countries,
etc. In this invention, the potential profit loss caused by political factors is added to the
above objective function in the form of risk cost to match the transaction situation.
According to the multi-dimensional political risk assessment of 12 indicators such as
government stability, socio-economic environment, investment environment, domestic
conflict and external conflict, The PRS Group obtained a comprehensive political risk
index R (out of 100). The lower the risk index, the higher the political risk. For
transnational and transcontinental power transmission, the greater the power transmission
and the greater the political risk, the greater the risk loss. Political factors may lead to the
interruption or change of electricity trading, thus reducing the trading income. The
political risk cost of Article K transmission channel is expressed as follows:
CPRk -dVkY(100-Rk)kEJ (5)
Then the political risk cost of the first transaction is:
R CPR,k (6) kEtl
Where a is the risk coefficient, the value is the risk cost of transmitting unit power
under certain political risks, VkY is the annual transmission power of channel k, Rk is
the political risk index corresponding to channel k, the value is the average value of
political risk indices r of two countries or regions connected by channel k, CPRJ is the
risk cost of the kth transmission channel, and J is the collection of transmission
channels.
To sum up, the improved trading objective function considering political factors is
obtained:
n fnN
maxJ ZB,(ViJ-Sj(VjJ] Cp,(7 j=I i=1 I=1
Constraints:
Vgmin,r,bsVg,r,bsVgmax,r,b bEB,rER (8)
-SkmaxsVk/tk Skmax kEJb (9)
Wherein, N represents the number of transactions reached, B represents the set of all
countries and regions, R represents the set of power generation modes, J represents the
set of channels connected with country or region b, Vgmin T,b and Vgmax ,b are the
minimum and maximum power generation of the rth power generation mode in country
or region b, Vg ,r ,b are the actual power generation of the rth power generation mode,
and Vk is the electricity consumption TI represents the channel utilization hours, and
Skmax represents the upper limit of transmission capacity of channel k. Formula (8) is
the power generation constraint, and formula (9) is the channel transmission capacity
constraint.
When the transaction of a transmission channel is interrupted due to political factors, the
remaining other power transmission channels are adjusted and re-matched again
according to formula (5) and combined with the capacity of transmission channels, that
is, the optimization goal is to maximize the social welfare taking into account the risk
cost when the transaction of channel k is interrupted.
5. Monthly distribution of annual trading power
The annual trading needs to allocate the trading electricity to each month when the
contract is executed, and the fluctuation of electricity price in each month will definitely
affect the monthly electricity distribution. Therefore, after the annual trading contract
between the matching trading members is determined, the monthly electricity distribution
should be optimized.
Because the power generation cost of hydropower and renewable energy can be ignored,
traditional thermal power units are mainly considered when calculating the power
generation cost. In this invention, taking coal-fired units as an example, the objective
function with the lowest power generation cost is as follows: 12 n m M~nE YZ"'i'i"(10) 1=1 i=l j=I
Wherein, Ai,t is the predicted value of electricity purchaser i at the monthly t, and Vi jt is
the monthly trading power of monthly t-buyer i and seller j (monthly optimized variable).
When determining the monthly trading volume, if only the optimal economy, that is, the
minimum generalized cost, is used as the objective function to allocate electricity, the
difference between the electricity distribution and the actual load demand may be too
large, so it is necessary to restrict the monthly trading electricity. Therefore, on the basis
of forecasting the monthly electricity load in the power supply area, the invention introduces the penalty coefficient of power shortage, and improves the objective function as follows:
12 n mn
miny,,J2 j +EENS*VOLL (11) t=1 i= j=
n 12 EENS= Y)E( V ,,-(12) i=1 1=1
In which, EENS and VOLL are power shortage expectation and power shortage penalty
coefficient respectively, and Vi jare load forecast values of monthly t of power
purchaser i .
After establishing the mathematical model of cross-border internet market transactions,
programming with maltab language and solving with Gurobi optimization solver, the
annual matching and monthly electricity distribution of the matching transactions can be
obtained.
Claims (7)
1. A medium-and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for cross-border
interconnected power markets, characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) According to the power supply and demand situation, unit data, quotation data, unit
maintenance plan and transmission channel capacity information of each member of the
transnational interconnected power market, with the maximum social welfare as the goal,
the transaction matching is carried out through the principle of high-low matching and
matching, and the medium-and long-term contract transaction power of both parties is
determined;
2) Considering the optimal economy of power supply and load demand comprehensively,
the medium and long-term contract transaction power of the paired parties is allocated
according to the time period.
2. The medium-and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for the
transnational interconnected power market according to claim 1, which is characterized in
that: in step 1), a medium-and long-term transaction optimization model is established
with the maximum social welfare as the objective function, and the medium-and long
term transaction optimization model is solved according to the declared electricity price
and the annual contract transaction electricity quantity of both parties to the transaction,
so as to obtain the transaction matching among market transaction members formed
according to the high-low matching principle; The medium-and long-term transaction
optimization model is expressed as:
1) Objective function:
miax B j=1 i=1
2) Constraints:
V V(2) j=i (3)
i=1
Vij>0 (4)
Where m and n are the number of buyers and sellers; Vij is the amount of electricity
purchased by the buyer i from the sellerj; Bi(Vij) is the total expenditure of electricity
purchaser i; Sj(Vij) is the total sales revenue of the seller j; Vi,max is the maximum
power purchase declared by the power purchaser I; Vsj,max is the maximum amount of
electricity sold declared by the seller j.
3. The medium-and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for the
transnational interconnected power market according to claim 2, characterized in that:
considering the potential transaction economic loss brought by political factors, the
potential transaction economic loss is added to the objective function in the form of risk
cost, and the following medium-and long-term transaction optimization model is
obtained:
1) Objective function:
n m N
max Z B, (ViJ- S (VjJ]- CP (5) j=1 i=1 1=1
CR =- , P,, (6) kd
CPR,k =aVkY(100-Rk)kEJ (7)
2) Constraints:
Vgmin,r,b<Vg,r,bVgmax,r, bEB ,rER (8)
-Skmax<Vk/tkeSkmax kEJb (9)
In which a is the risk coefficient, VkY is the annual transmission power of channel k, Rk
is the political risk index corresponding to channel k, Rk is the average value of
political risk indexes of two countries or regions connected by channel k, CPR,k is the
political risk cost corresponding to channel k, J is the set of transmission channels, J
represents the set of channels connected with country or region b; B represents the set
of all countries and regions, Vgmin,r,b and Vgmax,r,b are the minimum and maximum
power generation of the rth power generation mode in country or region b, R represents
the set of power generation modes, Vg,r,b is the actual power generation of the rth power
generation mode in country or region b, Vk is the power flow of channel k between
countries or regions expressed by electricity, tk represents the utilization hours of
channel k, and Skmax represents the transmission capacity of channel k.
4. The medium-and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for cross-border
interconnected power market according to claim 3, characterized in that when
transactions between countries or regions are interrupted due to political factors, the
annual contract transaction electricity quantity and its distribution between countries or
regions are coordinated and corrected by re-solving the medium-and long-term
transaction optimization model shown in formula 5- 9 on the premise of considering the
capacity of power transmission channels.
5. The medium-and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for the
transnational interconnected power market according to claim 2 or 3, characterized in
that both parties to the transaction uniformly convert the transmission network loss and
transmission network passing fee brought by the long-distance transmission and transfer of electric energy into the declared electricity price on the power generation side.
6. The medium-and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for the
transnational interconnected power market according to claim 1, 2 or 3, characterized in
that the medium-and long-term contract transaction quantities of various power
generation modes including new energy in each country or region are determined by
combining the portfolio optimization theory according to the power industry and supply
and demand status of each country or region in the interconnected region.
7. The medium and long-term transaction optimization method suitable for the cross
border interconnected power market according to claim 1, 2 or 3, characterized in that
the step 2) specifically comprises the following steps:
2.1) According to the forecast of monthly electricity price, the monthly electricity
distribution optimization model with the lowest generation cost of thermal power units
is established, and its monthly electricity distribution objective function is:
12 n
t- jj-110
wherein, ki,t is the predicted value of electricity price of buyer i at monthly t, and Vij,t
is the monthly trading power of monthly t-buyer i and seller j;
2.2) According to the forecast result of electricity load in the power supply area, the
penalty term of electricity shortage is introduced into the objective function of monthly
electricity distribution, and then the monthly electricity distribution result is optimized
and solved; The objective function of monthly electricity distribution with penalty of
power shortage is expressed as:
12 minyIY A, +EENS*VOLL (11} 1=1 i=1 j=1
n12 TEENS= L E V ,-V (12)
In which EENS and VOLL are the power shortage expectation and power shortage
penalty coefficient, respectively, and Vij are the load prediction values of the monthly
t of the power purchaser i .
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN114493430A (en) * | 2022-01-20 | 2022-05-13 | 吉林农业科技学院 | Logistics distribution system and method based on big data |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN114493430A (en) * | 2022-01-20 | 2022-05-13 | 吉林农业科技学院 | Logistics distribution system and method based on big data |
| CN114493430B (en) * | 2022-01-20 | 2022-10-04 | 吉林农业科技学院 | Logistics distribution system and method based on big data |
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