AU2010322931B2 - Refining information on subterranean fractures - Google Patents

Refining information on subterranean fractures Download PDF

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AU2010322931B2
AU2010322931B2 AU2010322931A AU2010322931A AU2010322931B2 AU 2010322931 B2 AU2010322931 B2 AU 2010322931B2 AU 2010322931 A AU2010322931 A AU 2010322931A AU 2010322931 A AU2010322931 A AU 2010322931A AU 2010322931 B2 AU2010322931 B2 AU 2010322931B2
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fracture
model
locations
example
microseismic
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AU2010322931A1 (en
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David P. Craig
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Halliburton Energy Services Inc
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Halliburton Energy Services Inc
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Priority to PCT/GB2010/002176 priority patent/WO2011064543A2/en
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01VGEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS
    • G01V1/00Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
    • G01V1/28Processing seismic data, e.g. analysis, for interpretation, for correction
    • G01V1/282Application of seismic models, synthetic seismograms
    • EFIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
    • E21EARTH DRILLING; MINING
    • E21BEARTH DRILLING, e.g. DEEP DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
    • E21B43/00Methods or apparatus for obtaining oil, gas, water, soluble or meltable materials or a slurry of minerals from wells
    • E21B43/25Methods for stimulating production
    • E21B43/26Methods for stimulating production by forming crevices or fractures

Abstract

Systems, methods, and instructions encoded in a computer-readable medium can perform operations related to refining information on characteristics of natural fractures of a subterranean formation. Fracture pattern models are generated based on sampling an initial distribution of values for a fracture parameter. Each fracture pattern model may include, for example, a model of natural fractures in a subterranean formation. Each fracture pattern model is compared to microseismic event data for a subterranean region. A refined distribution for the fracture parameter is generated based on the comparison. Generating the refined distribution may include, for example, selecting values of the fracture parameter from fracture pattern models that correlate with the microseismic event data. In some implementations, an injection treatment may be simulated and/or designed based on the refined distribution.

Description

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 REFINING INFORMATION ON SUBTERRANEAN FRACTURES BACKGROUND [00011 Oil and gas wells produce oil, gas and/or byproducts from subterranean petroleum 5 reservoirs. Petroleum reservoirs, such as those containing oil and gas, typically include finite dimensional, discontinuous, inhomogeneous, anisotropic, non-elastic (DIANE) rock formations. Such formations, in their natural state (prior to any fracture treatment), typically include natural fracture networks. Natural fracture networks can include fractures of various sizes and shapes, as well as sets of fractures having different orientations. 10 [0002] During a fracture treatment, fluids are pumped under high pressure into a rock formation through a well bore to artificially fracture the formations and increase permeability and production from the formation. Fracture treatments (as well as production and other activities) can cause complex fracture patterns to develop within the natural fracture pattern in the formation. Complex-fracture patterns can include complex networks of fractures that extend to 15 the well bore, along multiple azimuths, in multiple different planes and directions, along discontinuities in rock, and in multiple regions of a reservoir. SUMMARY [00031 Aspects of the present invention provides systems, methods, apparatus and computer 20 programs for performing an injection treatment, and provide systems, methods, and instructions encoded in a computer-readable medium to perform operations related to refining information on properties of fractures of a subterranean formation. In one general aspect, a probability distribution for a natural fracture property is refined based on microseismic data. [0004] In one aspect, multiple fracture pattern models are generated based on sampling a 25 distribution of values for a fracture parameter. Each fracture pattern model is compared to microseismic event data for a subterranean region. A refined distribution for the fracture parameter is generated based on the comparing. [0005] Implementations may include one or more of the following features. Map images are generated. Each map image includes a representation of one of the fracture pattern models and a 30 representation of the microseismic event data. Comparing each generated fracture pattern model to microseismic event data includes presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface. The comparing includes receiving user input through the graphical user interface.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 2 The user input identifies at least one of the fracture pattern models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event data, and/or the user input identifies at least one of the fracture pattern models as an inaccurate representation of the microseismic event data. The distribution is an initial distribution. Sampling the initial distribution includes randomly selecting sample values 5 from the initial distribution. Generating the refined distribution includes selecting a subset of the sample values based on the comparing. The comparing includes determining that at least one of the fracture pattern models has a correlation with the microseismic event data higher than a threshold correlation. The comparing includes determining that at least one of the fracture pattern models has a correlation with the microseismic event data lower than a threshold 10 correlation. The fracture pattern models include a first fracture pattern model and a second fracture pattern model. The first fracture pattern model has a first correlation with the microseismic event data. The second fracture pattern model has a second correlation with the microseismic event data. The comparing comprises determining that the first correlation is higher than the second correlation. The microseismic event data includes information on event 15 locations of a plurality of measured microseismic events. The fracture pattern models each include information on locations of fractures. Comparing a fracture pattern model to microseismic event data includes calculating, for each fracture pattern model, a least distance from each of the event locations to one of the fractures in the fracture pattern model. The microseismic event data includes information on event magnitudes of the measured 20 microseismic events. Comparing a fracture pattern model to microseismic event data includes weighting the least distance for each event location based on the event magnitude for the measured microseismic event associated with the event location. Generating the fracture pattern models includes simulating complex fracture propagation in the subterranean region. The fracture pattern models are natural fracture pattern models. 25 [00061 In one aspect, information on a model location of a subterranean fracture is received. The model location is based on an initial distribution of values for a fracture parameter. Data processing apparatus generates a refined distribution of values for the fracture parameter based on comparing the model location of the subterranean fracture and measured locations of microseismic events in a subterranean region. 30 [0007] Implementations may include one or more of the following -features. A first volume of the subterranean region includes the measured locations. A natural fracture pattern in a second volume of the subterranean region is predicted based on the refined distribution. The WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 3 subterranean formation includes a horizontal well bore. The first volume surrounds a first portion of the horizontal well bore. The second volume surrounds a second portion of the horizontal well bore. The fracture parameter relates to a fracture dip angle, a fracture density, a fracture direction, a fracture shape, a fracture aperture, a fracture persistence, a fracture length, 5 and/or a fracture spacing. The initial distribution includes values for the fracture parameter and a probability for each of the values. Generating the refined distribution includes increasing or decreasing the probability for at least one of the values. Information on an additional model location of an additional subterranean fracture is received. The additional model location is based on the refined distribution of values for the fracture parameter. A second refined 10 distribution of values is generated for the fracture parameter based on comparing the additional model location and the measured locations of the microseismic events. The information on the model location of the subterranean fracture is included in first information, and fracture pattern models each including information on model locations of subterranean fractures are received. One of the fracture pattern models includes the first information. Each fracture pattern model is 15 based on an independent sampling of the initial distribution of values for the fracture parameter. The refined distribution is generated based on comparing each of the fracture pattern models and the measured locations of the microseismic events. Comparing each of the fracture pattern models and the measured locations of the microseismic events includes using a display device to display plot. Each plot includes a graphical representation of one of the fracture pattern models 20 and a graphical representation of the microseismic events. The comparing includes receiving through a user interface a selection of at least one of the plots. Comparing each of the fracture pattern models and the measured locations of the microseismic events includes determining distances between the measured locations of the microseismic events and the model locations of each fracture pattern model. Comparing each of the fracture pattern models and the measured 25 locations of the microseismic events includes determining that one or more of the fracture pattern models correlates with the locations of the microseismic events based on the distances and/or determining that one or more of the fracture pattern models does not correlate with the locations of the microseismic events based on the distances. The refined distribution is used to predict values of the parameter for a second subterranean region. An operating parameter for an 30 injection treatment is determined based on the refined distribution., The operating parameter includes at least one of a fluid injection flow rate, a fluid injection flow volume, a fluid injection location, a proppant property, and/or an injection slurry concentration.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 4 [0008] In one aspect, a system for performing an injection treatment includes an injection treatment control subsystem and a computing subsystem. The injection treatment control subsystem is adapted to control an injection treatment applied to a subterranean formation through a well bore defined in the subterranean formation. The injection treatment is based on a 5 predicted distribution of value for a natural fracture parameter. The computing subsystem is adapted to generate fracture pattern models by sampling an initial distribution of values for the natural fracture parameter. The computing subsystem is adapted to generate the predicted distribution based on comparing each of the fracture pattern models to microseismic event data for a subterranean region. 10 [00091 Implementations may include one or more of the following features. The subterranean formation resides outside of the subterranean region. The subterranean formation resides in the subterranean region. The computing subsystem is adapted to simulate fracture propagation in the subterranean formation and determine at least one aspect of the injection treatment based on the simulation. The system includes the subterranean formation. The subterranean formation 15 includes shale, sandstone, carbonates, and/or coal. The well bore includes a horizontal well bore. [00101 In one aspect, fracture pattern models are generated based on a distribution of values for a fracture parameter. An updated distribution is generated based on correlations between the fracture pattern models and microseismic event data for a subterranean formation. An injection 20 treatment is designed based on the updated distribution. The injection treatment is applied to the subterranean formation through a well bore in the subterranean formation. [0011] Implementations may include one or more of the following features. Applying the injection treatment includes applying a second injection treatment to the subterranean formation at a second fluid injection location. The microseismic event data is detected during a first 25 injection treatment applied to the subterranean formation at a first fluid injection location. The first fluid injection treatment is applied to the subterranean formation at the first fluid injection location through the well bore. The well bore includes a horizontal well bore. The horizontal well bore includes the first fluid injection location and the second fluid injection location. The second fluid injection location is horizontally offset from the first fluid injection location. The 30 microseismic event data represent microseismic events. in. a first- portion of the. subterranean formation, and the second fracture treatment is applied to a second portion of the subterranean formation. Applying the injection treatment includes injecting treatment fluid into the 5 subterranean formation at an injection pressure less than a fracture initiation pressure for the subterranean formation, at an injection pressure greater than or equal to a fracture initiation pressure for the subterranean formation, at an injection pressure less than a fracture closure pressure for the 5 subterranean formation, and/or at an injection pressure greater than or equal to a fracture closure pressure for the subterranean formation. Applying the injection treatment initiates a fracture in the subterranean formation. Applying the injection treatment dilates a natural fracture in the subterranean formation. The injection treatment includes a pad phase of a fracture 10 treatment and/or a proppant-laden phase of a fracture treatment. Designing the injection treatment includes generating a natural fracture model for the subterranean region based on the updated distribution. Designing the injection treatment includes selecting an injection treatment plan based on the natural fracture model. 15 In accordance with one aspect of the present invention, there is provided a non-transitory computer-readable medium encoded with instructions that, when executed, perform operations including: generating a plurality of distinct fracture pattern models based on sampling an initial probability 20 distribution of values for a fracture parameter, each distinct fracture pattern model including a distinct set of model fracture locations; comparing the set of model fracture locations in each fracture pattern model to microseismic event locations for a subterranean region, the same microseismic event locations being compared against each distinct 25 set of model fracture locations, wherein comparing the set of model fracture locations includes: generating a plurality of map images, each map image including a representation of one of the plurality of fracture pattern models and a representation of the microseismic event locations; presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface; and at 30 least one of: receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event locations; or receiving 2465907v1 5a user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an inaccurate representation of the microseismic event locations; and generating, from the initial probability distribution, a refined probability distribution for the fracture 5 parameter based on the comparison between the model fracture locations and the microseismic event locations. In accordance with another aspect of the present invention there is provided a computer-implemented method for simulating an injection 10 treatment, the method including: receiving a plurality of distinct fracture models, each fracture model indicating a distinct model location for one or more subterranean fractures, each of the fracture models being based on an initial probability distribution of values for a fracture parameter; and generating, by operation of data processing apparatus, a refined 15 probability distribution of values for the fracture parameter based on comparing the distinct model location in each fracture model against a common set of measured locations of microseismic events in a subterranean region, wherein the comparing includes: generating a plurality of map images, each map image including a representation of 20 one of the plurality of fracture models and a representation of the measured locations of the microseismic events; presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface; and at least one of: receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture models as an accurate representation of the 25 measured locations of the microseismic events; or receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture models as an inaccurate representation of the measured locations of the microseismic events. 30 In accordance with yet another aspect of the present invention there is provided a system for performing an injection treatment, the system 2465907v1 5b including: an injection treatment control subsystem adapted to control an injection treatment applied to a subterranean formation through a well bore defined in the subterranean formation, the injection treatment based on a predicted probability distribution of values for a natural fracture 5 parameter; and a computing subsystem adapted to: generate a plurality of distinct fracture pattern models by sampling an initial probability distribution of values for the natural fracture parameter, each distinct fracture pattern model including a distinct set of model fracture locations; and generate the predicted probability distribution from the initial 10 probability distribution based on comparing the set of model fracture locations in each of the fracture pattern models to microseismic event locations for a subterranean region, the same microseismic event locations being compared against each distinct set of model fracture locations, wherein the comparing includes: generating a plurality of map 15 images, each map image including a representation of one of the plurality of fracture pattern models and a representation of the microseismic event locations; presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface; and at least one of: receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern 20 models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event locations; or receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an inaccurate representation of the microseismic event locations. 25 In accordance with yet a further aspect of the present invention there is provided a method of treating a subterranean formation, the method including: generating a plurality of distinct fracture pattern models based on a probability distribution of values for a fracture parameter, each distinct fracture pattern model including a distinct set of model fracture 30 locations; generating, by operation of one or more computers, an updated probability distribution based on correlations between the fracture pattern 2465907v1 5c models and microseismic event locations for a subterranean formation, the correlations being identified by comparing the same set of microseismic event locations against each distinct set of fracture model locations, wherein generating the updated probability distribution includes: 5 generating a plurality of map images, each map image including a representation of one of the plurality of fracture pattern models and a representation of the microseismic event locations; presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface; and at least one of: receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying 10 at least one of the fracture pattern models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event locations; or receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an inaccurate representation of the microseismic event locations; designing an injection treatment based on 15 the updated probability distribution; and using an injection treatment control subsystem to apply the injection treatment to the subterranean formation through a well bore in the subterranean formation. DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS 20 [0012] FIG. I A is a diagram of an example well system. [0013] FIG. IB is a diagram of the example treatment well 102 of FIG 1 A. 25 [0014] FIG. 1C is a diagram of the example computing device 110 of FIG. 1 A. [0015] FIG. ID is a diagram of an example well system. 30 [0016] FIG. 2A is a plot of nine example fracture patterns. [0017] FIGS. 2B and 2C are plots of the nine example fracture patterns of 2465907v1 WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 6 [00251 FIG 6B is a flow chart of an example technique for simulating complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation. [00261 FIG 7A is a flow chart of an example technique for fitting microseismic event data. [00271 FIG 7B is a flow chart of an example technique for generating a probability distribution. 5 [00281 FIG 7C is a flow chart of an example technique for generating a probability distribution. [0029] Like reference symbols in the various drawings indicate like elements. DETAILED DESCRIPTION [0030] FIG 1A is diagram of an example well system 100. The example well system 100 includes a treatment well 102 and an observation well 104. The observation well 104 can be 10 located remotely from the treatment well 102. The well system 100 can include one or more additional treatment wells and/or one or more additional observation wells. The well system 100 can include a computing subsystem 110, which may include one or more computing devices located at one or more well sites and/or at one or more remote locations. The computing subsystem 110 may analyze microseismic data, seismic data, fracture data, and/or other types of 15 data collected from a subterranean region. The computing subsystem 110 may predict and/or simulate fractures and fracture networks in a subterranean formation. The predicted and/or simulated fractures may include natural fracture patterns, propagated and/or complex fracture networks, and others. The computing subsystem 110 may simulate an injection treatment and/or resource production for a subterranean formation. In some implementations, the computing 20 subsystem 110 simulates behavior of finite-dimensional, discontinuous, inhomogeneous, anisotropic, non-elastic (DIANE) rock formations during an injection treatment. [00311 The example treatment well 102 includes a well bore 101 beneath the surface 106, in a subterranean region 121. The region 121 may include a natural fracture network 108 that extends through one or more subterranean formations in the region 121. The natural fracture 25 network 108 may define multiple rock blocks 115 in one or more rock formations. The rock blocks 115 can range in size from centimeters, or smaller, in size to hundreds of meters, or larger, in size. The example treatment well 102 includes an injection treatment subsystem 120, which includes instrument trucks 116, pump trucks 114, and other equipment that may be used to control an injection treatment applied to the subterranean formation through the well bore 30 101. In some implementations, the treatment well 102 is used.to. apply an injection. treatment to and/or extract resources from the subterranean formation through the well bore 101.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 7 [0032] Properties of the injection treatment can be calculated and/or selected based on computer simulations of complex fracture propagation in the subterranean region 121. For example, the computing subsystem 110 can include a fracture simulation system that predicts the behavior of discrete rock blocks 115 in the subterranean region 121 by simulating forces applied to each 5 individual rock block. The simulations may represent the boundaries and/or locations of the rock blocks using a subterranean formation model defined in memory. The subterranean formation model may include a geometric model the represents the boundaries of the rock blocks; the subterranean formation model may include additional information regarding the subterranean formation. The simulations can include probabilistic simulations that generate a 10 range of output subterranean formation models based on multiple input subterranean formation models. Each subterranean formation input model can be generated by randomly sampling a probabilistic earth model that describes the subterranean region. In some implementations, the probabilistic earth model and/or probability distributions included in the earth model are developed or refined based on microseismic data. 15 [00331 As shown in FIG 1A, the observation well 104 includes a well bore 11 in a subterranean region beneath the surface 106. The observation well 104 includes sensors 112 and other equipment that can be used to sense microseismic information. The sensors 112 may include geophones and/or other types of listening equipment. The sensors 112 can be located at a variety of positions in the well system 100. In FIG 1A, the example sensors are installed 20 beneath the surface 106 in the well bore 111. In some implementations, sensors may additionally or alternatively be positioned in other locations above or below the surface 106; in other locations within the well bore 111 and/or within another well bore, and/or in other locations in the well system 100. The observation well 104 may include additional equipment (e.g., working string, packers, casing, and/or other equipment) not shown in FIG IA. In some 25 implementations, microseismic data is detected by sensors installed in the treatment well 102 and/or at the surface 106, without use of an observation well. [00341 Microseismic information detected at the well bore 111 can include acoustic signals generated by an injection treatment applied through the treatment well 102 or another treatment well (not shown), acoustic signals generated by drilling and/or production activities at the 30 treatment well 102 or another well, acoustic signals generated. by naturally-occurring microseisms in the fracture network 108 and/or another fracture network (not shown), and/or WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 8 other acoustic signals. The microseismic data can include information on the locations of rock slips, rock movements, rock fractures and/or other events in the well system 100. 100351 The microseismic data can be used to refine or improve knowledge of the fracture network 108 and/or another fracture network. For example, microseismic data based on 5 microseismic events in a first formation, region, or zone can be used to infer properties of a different formation, region, or zone. In some cases, the fracture simulation system uses the microseismic data to refine and/or improve a priori knowledge of a fracture network. The refined and/or improved knowledge can then be incorporated into a probabilistic earth model for simulating complex fracture propagation. The simulations can be used to design an injection 10 treatment applied to a subterranean region. For example, the simulations can be used to calculate, refine, optimize, improve, or otherwise select parameters, setting, and/or conditions of an injection treatment applied to the subterranean formation through the treatment well 102. 100361 In some implementations, the computing subsystem 110 can use a discontinuum model to simulate complex fracture propagation. In some instances of a discontinuum model, 15 subterranean formations, including sandstones, carbonates, shales, coals, mudstones, granites, and other materials, can be modeled as a collection of discrete rock blocks separated by fractures, fissures, faults, and/or joints. In some cases, simulations are improved by modeling the rock as a collection of discrete elements and by simulating forces applied to each individual rock block. In some simulations, each rock block can translate, rotate, and/or fracture, for 20 example, as a result of the simulated forces acting on the rock blocks. The simulated forces may include, for example, forces caused by motion of the rock blocks, normal and shear forces due to contact between rock blocks, forces caused by fluid flow between rock blocks, pressure of resident fluids in the rock blocks, and/or other forces. The discontinuum model can be used to simulate fracture dilation, fracture propagation, tensile fractures, open fractures formed by shear 25 displacements along rock-block boundaries, and/or other types of phenomena. 10037] An example discontinuum model technique that can be used to simulate complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation is the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) technique and variations thereof. According to the DDA technique, tensile fracture propagation can be modeled along with open fractures resulting from shear displacement of the 30 rock blocks. DDA does not require symmetry of the rock blocks or symmetrical fracture propagation. That is to say, in some implementations, any fracture pattern can be set into the formation, and fracture growth and/or complex fracture propagation can form fracture patterns WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 9 that are asymmetrical about any point, plane, or axis in the formation. For example, FIG 4A shows a model of a simple rock formation 400a that includes seven discrete rock blocks separated by fractures that are asymmetrical. Another example discontinuum model technique that can be applied to modeling complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation is the 5 numerical manifold method (NMM) and variations thereof. In some implementations, an NMM technique couples features of a discontinuum discrete element method with features of a continuum analysis. 100381 In some implementations, the discontinuum model can achieve one or more advantages. For example, the discontinuum model can simulate multiple-fracture propagation, including 10 multiple asymmetric fractures, hydraulic fractures, and others. Such simulations can simulate asymmetric complex fracture patterns and multiple asymmetric planar fractures propagating from multiple entry points along a well bore (e.g., a vertical well bore, a horizontal well bore, and/or a well bore having deviations at any angle). The discontinuum model can simulate dilating complex fracture networks, opening and closing of fractures caused by shear 15 displacement of rock blocks along cleavage planes, and/or other effects. In addition, in various implementations, the discontinuum model can simulate fracture propagation in formations having anisotropic rock properties; the discontinuum model can simulate changes in a stress field resulting from pore pressure depletion and fracturing; the discontinuum model can simulate fracture reorientation in response to changes in the stress field or fracturing conditions; and/or 20 the discontinuum model can predict residual fracture width created by shear offset of rock blocks. The discontinuum model can simulate initiation and propagation of fractures in multiple directions and/or orientations from a single injection location. For example, the discontinuum model can simulate initiation and growth of a two fractures in two different directions from a single injection location, and the two fractures may initiate and grow in planes separated by an 25 arbitrary angle (e.g., any angle between zero and 360 degrees, and/or in another range of directions). The directions of the fractures may be influenced by primary and secondary fracture orientations in the formation. [00391 In some implementations, the computing subsystem 110 can perform a probabilistic simulation of complex fracture propagation in the subterranean formation. The complex 30 fracture network that hydraulic fracturing, could. dilate, propagate, and/or connect typically depends on the well location and the connectivity of the initial fracture network. In some implementations, probabilistic techniques simulate fracture propagation in multiple different WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 10 initial fracture network models to generate a range of possible outputs. For example, initial fracture network models can be generated by randomly sampling probability distributions of fracture parameters. Complex fracture propagation can be simulated in each of the initial fracture network models to generate multiple different output fracture models. The simulations 5 can model the subterranean formation as a collection of rock blocks, and predict complex fractures generated by forces applied to the rock blocks. In contrast to a deterministic technique that predicts a single outcome, a probabilistic technique can account for uncertainty in formation properties by generating a range of possible outcomes based on a range of possible formation properties. The range of outcomes can, in turn, be used to generate output probability 10 distributions that describe predicted properties of a complex fracture network and/or other information. [00401 Monte Carlo simulation techniques are an example technique for performing probabilistic numerical simulations. In a typical Monte Carlo simulation, input values of one or more variables are randomly selected by sampling a probability distribution for each variable. 15 In a probabilistic simulation of subterranean complex fracture propagation, the randomly sampled variables may include, for example, fracture dip, fracture direction, fracture persistence, fracture aperture, fracture trace length, fracture spacing, fracture density, stress anisotropy, coefficient of friction between rock blocks, natural fracture roughness, and others. Some or all of these example variables and/or other variables can be described by a probability 20 distribution and randomly sampled. For each set of input values, the Monte Carlo simulation provides a single output, and a range of outputs are obtained based on the multiple sets of input values. The outputs can be used to predict characteristics of complex fracture growth in the subterranean formation modeled by the simulations and/or other types of information. [00411 In some implementations, the computing subsystem 110 can use a probabilistic earth 25 model to populate a geometric model of a subterranean formation, and the geometric model can be used as an input for simulating complex fracture propagation in the subterranean formation. For example, the probabilistic earth model can be used to generate multiple realizations of input geometric models for discontinuum simulations, and the output models from the discontinuum simulations can be analyzed collectively and/or individually. 30 100421 In many underground petroleum reservoirs, properties of the discrete. rock blocks and characteristics of discontinuities are known with some uncertainty. For example, the exact pattern of fractures, faults, fissures, and other features, existing in the reservoir are typically not WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 11 known with certainty, and probability distributions for the discontinuities can be generated based on data from analog fields, outcrop mapping, open hole logging, microseismic data, and/or other information. The uncertainty may result from imprecise or incomplete knowledge of the rock properties, inhomogeneity of the rock properties, and/or other sources of uncertainty. 5 Uncertainty in the properties of the rock blocks and characteristics of the discontinuities can be accounted for in numerical simulations of the fracture network by defining a probabilistic earth model. The probabilistic earth model, which includes probability distributions that describe ranges of values for each input variable (and a probability for each value), can be used to populate geometric models that serve as an inputs for probabilistic simulations of complex 10 fracture growth. [0043] A probabilistic earth model can describe, among other things, discontinuities in a subterranean region. For example, the discontinuities can include discontinuities at any orientation, including lateral discontinuities that create rock blocks in a single layer, vertical discontinuities that create a multilayer system of reservoir rocks, fracture sets having a primary 15 orientation, fracture sets having a secondary orientation, and/or others. In some cases, some discontinuities are known with reasonable certainty, for example, major faults can be mapped through a formation with more certainty than some other types of features. In some cases, open hole logging can identify changes in lithology that create vertical discontinuities. In some cases, major faults can be mapped using microseismic data, pressure transient data, and/or other types 20 of data. Properties of other discontinuities, for example, natural fractures or fissures, may not be known with as much certainty as the major faults. [00441 In some implementations, using a probabilistic earth model to populate a geometric model for complex fracture simulation can be used to achieve one or more advantages. For example, a probabilistic earth model may allow for both lateral discontinuities and vertical 25 discontinuities to be included in the geometric model. The lateral discontinuities may represent, for example, lateral and vertical changes in lithology as well as fracture discontinuities, fissures, and faults. A probabilistic earth model may allow complex rock geometries (e.g., lenticular rock geometries, etc.) to be included in the geometric model used for complex fracture simulation. A probabilistic earth model may allow modeling of "stacked" reservoirs, i.e., multiple reservoirs 30 separated vertically by changes in lithology. -A probabilistic. earth model. may describe rock layers that "pinch out" between well bores, which may include rock layers separated by WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 12 impermeable materials. A probabilistic earth model can be used as an input for Monte Carlo and other types of probabilistic simulation. [00451 In some implementations, the computing subsystem 110 can use microseismic data to refine initial probability distributions describing properties of natural fractures and patterns in 5 the subterranean formation. For example, initial probability distributions can be refined by comparing stochastically generated fracture patterns to observed microseismic events recorded during fracturing, during injection below fracture propagation pressure, during production, and/or at other times. In this manner, fracture modeling, pumping or production operations, and microseismic mapping can be linked to predict fracture patterns in other locations. 10 [00461 Fluid injection, production, and other activities can create microseismic events in a subterranean formation, and microseismic data can be collected from the subterranean formation. The locations of individual microseismic events can be determined based on the microseismic data, and the locations can be matched with numerically simulated fracture patterns. Each numerically simulated fracture pattern can be generated based on a set of fracture 15 parameters, and values for one or more of the parameters may be selected by randomly sampling initial probability distributions for the parameter. Identifying simulated fracture patterns that match the microseismic data allows the initial probability distributions to be refined or corrected for the next location where the process (i.e., the fracture or production process) is to be implemented. The probability distributions may represent variables such as, for example, 20 fracture dip, fracture direction, fracture persistence, fracture dimension, fracture shape, fracture density, fracture aperture, fracture trace length, fracture spacing, and/or others. [00471 In some instances, the initial probability distributions are generic probability distributions for a certain type of formation, material, or region. The generic probability distributions can be refined for a particular geographic area, formation, field, layer, etc. by 25 simulating fracture patterns based on the generic probability distributions and selecting the simulated fracture patterns that match microseismic data from the particular geographic area, formation, field, layer, etc. The refined probability distributions can be subsequently used for other locations in the same geographic area, formation, field, layer, etc. to predict natural fracture patterns. As more microseismic events are recorded and mapped, the probability 30 distributions can be further refined, for example, in an iterative or another fashion. . [00481 In some cases the matching technique (i.e., matching microseismic data to simulated fracture patterns) can be done in real-time as events are recorded, or the matching technique can WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 13 be implemented based on previously recorded microseismic data. After mismatches of microseismic events and simulated fracture patterns are eliminated, the remaining "matched" maps of microseismic events and natural fracture model realizations can be used to regenerate and/or refine the probability distributions. The regenerated or refined probability distributions 5 of natural fracture properties and patterns can then be used to predict natural fracture patterns at other locations. [0049] FIG LB is a diagram showing an example injection treatment applied at the example treatment well 102 of FIG IA. As shown in FIG 1B, the treatment well 102 intersects a subterranean formation 122. In some implementations, the formation 122 includes naturally 10 fractured rock containing oil, gas, and/or other resources. For example, the formation 122 may include fractured sandstone, fractured carbonate materials, fractured shale, fractured coal, fractured mudstone, fractured granite, and/or others fractured material. In some implementations, the treatment well 102 intersects other types of formations, including reservoirs that are not naturally fractured to any significant degree. 15 [00501 As shown in FIG 1 B, an injection treatment can be applied to the subterranean formation 122 through the well bore 101. The injection treatment may include a fracture treatment and/or another type of stimulation treatment. A fracture treatment may include a mini fracture test treatment, a regular or full fracture treatment, a follow-on fracture treatment, a re-fracture treatment, a final fracture treatment and/or another type of fracture treatment. The injection 20 treatment may inject treatment fluid into the formation above, at or below a fracture initiation pressure for the formation, above at or below a fracture closure pressure for the formation, and/or at another fluid pressure. Fracture initiation pressure refers to a minimum fluid injection pressure that can initiate and/or propagate artificial fractures in the subterranean formation. As such, application of an injection treatment may or may not initiate and/or propagate artificial 25 fractures in the formation. Fracture closure pressure refers to a minimum fluid injection pressure that can dilate existing fractures in the subterranean formation. As such, application of an injection treatment may or may not dilate natural and/or artificial fractures in the formation. [00511 The injection treatment and/or properties of the injection treatment may be calculated, improved, optimized, and/or otherwise selected based on simulations (e.g., computer 30 implemented simulations) of complex fracture propagation. in the. formation 122. or another formation. For example, the injection treatment may include a flow rate, a flow volume, a slurry concentration, and/or other characteristics that have been selected based on numerical WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 14 simulations of a injection treatment applied to the formation 122. A simulated complex fracture network may be used to predict a volume, rate, and/or location of resource production from the formation 122. [0052] The example treatment well 102 shown in FIG 1B includes the well bore 101, a casing 5 103 and well head 113. The well bore 101 shown in FIG LB includes a vertical well bore. More generally, a treatment well may additionally or alternatively include one or more slant well bores, one or more horizontal well bores, one or more deviated well bores, and/or other types of well bores. The casing 103 may be cemented or otherwise secured in the well bore 101. Perforations 109 may be formed in the casing 103 in the formation 122 to allow treatment fluids, 10 proppants, and/or other materials to flow into the formation 122, and/or to allow oil, gas, by products, and other materials to flow into the treatment well 102 and be produced to the surface 106. Perforations 109 may be formed using shape charges, a perforating gun, and/or other tools. [00531 As shown in FIG 1B, a working string 107 is disposed in the well bore 101. The working string 107 may include coiled tubing, sectioned pipe, and/or other types of tubing 15 and/or pipe. As shown in FIG. IB, a fracturing tool 119 is coupled to the working string 107. The fracturing tool 119 can include a hydrajetting/fracturing tool and/or another type of fracturing tool. Example hydrajetting/fracturing tools include the SURGIFRAC tool (manufactured by HALLIBURTON), the COBRA FRAC tool (manufactured by HALLIBURTON), and others. The packers 105 shown in FIG I B seal the annulus of the well 20 bore 101 above and below the formation 122. Packers 105 may include mechanical packers, fluid inflatable packers, sand packers, and/or other types of packers. [0054] As shown in FIG lB, the pump trucks 114 are coupled to the working string 107 at the surface 106. The pump trucks 114 may include mobile vehicles, immobile installations, skids, hoses, tubes, fluid tanks or reservoirs, pumps, valves, and/or other suitable structures and 25 equipment. During operation, the pump trucks 114 pump fluid 117 to the fracturing tool 119, which performs the injection treatment by injecting the fluid 117 into the formation 122. The fluid 117 may include a pad, proppants, a flush fluid, additives, and/or other materials. For example, a injection treatment may include a pad phase, where a pad (which typically includes fluids without proppants), is pumped down the well bore and injected into the surrounding the 30 formation to induce fracture. After. the pad phase, the. injection treatment. may include a subsequent proppant phase, where fracturing fluids containing proppants are pumped into the formation. The injected proppants may hold the fractures open to stimulate production from the WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 15 formation. After the proppant phase, a clear fluid flush may be pumped into the well bore to clean the well bore of proppants and/or other materials. [0055] As shown in FIG 1B, the instrument trucks 116 are also provided at the surface 106. The instrument trucks 116 may include mobile vehicles, immobile installations, and/or other 5 suitable structures. The instrument trucks 116 may include a technical command center. The example instrument trucks 116 include a injection control system that monitors and controls the injection treatment. The injection control system may control the pump trucks 114, fracturing tool 119, fluid valves, and/or other equipment used to apply the injection treatment and/or a perforating treatment. The treatment well 102 may also include surface and down-hole sensors 10 (not shown) to measure pressure, rate, temperature and/or other parameters of treatment and/or production. The treatment well 102 may include pump controls and/or other types of controls for starting, stopping and/or otherwise controlling pumping as well as controls for selecting and/or otherwise controlling fluids pumped during the injection treatment. The injection control system in the instrument trucks 116 can communicate with the surface and/or subsurface sensor, 15 instruments, and other equipment to monitor and control the injection treatment. [0056] The example instrument trucks 116 shown in FIG 1B communicate with the pump truck 114, the surface and subsurface instruments, the computing subsystem 110, and/or other systems and subsystems through one or more communication links 118. All or part of the computing system 110 may be contained in the instrument trucks 116; all or part of the computing system 20 110 may be contained outside of the instrument trucks at a well site and/or at a remote location. In an example embodiment, the computing subsystem 110 is contained in a technical command center at the well site. In another example embodiment, the computing subsystem 110 is contained in a real-time operations center at a remote location, and the computing subsystem 110 communicates by satellite with a injection control system at the well site. In some 25 embodiments, the computing subsystem 110, the listening subsystem (which includes the sensors 112), and other subsystems at one or more well sites communicate with a remote real time operations center by wide area network. 100571 The communication links 118 can include multiple uncoupled communication links and/or a network of coupled communication links. The communication links 118 may include 30 wired and/or wireless communications systems. For example, surface sensors and pump controls may communicate with the injection control system through a wired or wireless link, down-hole sensors may communicate to a receiver at the surface through a wired or wireless WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 16 link, and the receiver may be coupled by a wired or wireless link to the injection control system. As another example, the instrument truck 116 may communicate with the pump trucks 114 and/or the computing subsystem 110 via wired and/or wireless digital data communication networks, wired and/or wireless analog communication links, and/or other types of 5 communication links. [00581 The injection control system and/or other components of the instrument trucks 116 can communicate with the computing subsystem 110 to receive injection treatment parameters and/or other information. The computing subsystem 110 may include a fracture simulation system that calculates, selects, and/or optimizes injection treatment parameters for treatment of 10 the formation 122 or another formation. The example fracture simulation system implemented by the computing subsystem 110 in FIG 1 B can simulate the injection treatment during a design phase of the injection treatment. The fracture simulation system can use data collected during a injection treatment to simulate further injection treatments in the formation 122 and/or other formations. The fracture simulation system can be updated during and after a injection 15 treatment based on measured and/or observed data, including fracture, subsequent production and/or other data. [00591 In one aspect of operation, the fracturing tool 119 is coupled to the working string 107 and positioned in the treatment well 102. The packers 105 are set to isolate the formation 122. The pump trucks 114 pump fluid 117 down the working string 107 to the fracturing tool 119. 20 The fluid 117 exits the fracturing tool 119 and fractures the formation 122. In some implementations, the fluid may include a fluid pad pumped down the treatment well 102 until breakdown of the formation 122, and proppants may then be pumped into the fractures, followed by a fluid flush. In some implementations, the injection treatment is performed in a different manner. 25 [00601 Some embodiments and/or some aspects of the techniques and operations described herein may be implemented by a computing subsystem configured to provide the functionality described. In various embodiments, a computing device may include any of various types of devices, including, but not limited to, a personal computer system, desktop computer, laptop, notebook, mainframe computer system, handheld computer, workstation, network computer, 30 application server, storage device, or any type of computing or electronic device. [00611 FIG 1C is a diagram of the example computing subsystem 110 of FIG IA. The example computing subsystem 110 can be located at or near one or more wells of the well system 100 WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 17 and/or at a remote location. The example computing subsystem 110 includes a processor 160, a memory 150, and input/output controllers 170 communicably coupled by a bus 165. The memory can include, for example, a random access memory (RAM), a storage device (e.g., a writable read-only memory (ROM) and/or others), a hard disk, and/or another type of storage 5 medium. The computing subsystem 110 can be preprogrammed and/or it can be programmed (and reprogrammed) by loading a program from another source (e.g., from a CD-ROM, from another computer device through a data network, and/or in another manner). The input/output controller 170 is coupled to input/output devices (e.g., a monitor 175, a mouse, a keyboard, and/or other input/output devices) and to a network 180. The input/output devices receive and 10 transmit data in analog or digital form over communication links such as a serial link, wireless link (e.g., infrared, radio frequency, and/or others), parallel link, and/or another type of link. [00621 The network 180 can include any type of data communication network. For example, the network 180 can include a wireless and/or a wired network, a Local Area Network (LAN), a Wide Area Network (WAN), a private network, a public network (such as the Internet), a WiFi 15 network, a network that includes a satellite link, and/or another type of data communication network. The network 180 can include some or all of the communication link 118 of FIG. IA. [0063] The memory 150 can store instructions (e.g., computer code) associated with an operating system, computer applications, and/or other resources. The memory 150 can also store application data and data objects that can be interpreted by one or more applications and/or 20 virtual machines running on the computing subsystem 110. As shown in FIG 1 C, the example memory 150 includes microseismic data 151, probability data 152, fracture data 153, treatment data 154, other data 155, and applications 156. In some implementations, a memory of a computing device may include some or all of the information stored in the memory 150. [0064] The microseismic data 151 can include information on the locations of microseisms in a 25 subterranean formation. For example, the microseismic data can include information based on acoustic data detected at the observation well 104, at the surface 106, at the treatment well 102, and/or at another location. The microseismic data 151 can be matched to simulated fracture patterns in order to refine an initial distribution of fracture properties. For example, a map of the locations of the microseismic events can be compared to a map of a simulated fracture pattern to 30 identify whether the simulated fracture pattern accurately represents the measured microseismic data. Example microseismic data is represented in the graphical user interface in FIG 5.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 18 [0065] The probability data 152 can include probability distributions for parameters used in numerical simulations of fracture patterns and complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation. The probability data 152 may be included in a probabilistic earth model. A probability distribution for a given parameter typically includes one or more possible values (or 5 one or more possible ranges of values) for the given parameter and the likelihood of occurrence for each possible value (or each possible range of values). The probability data 152 can include generic probability distributions for a certain type of formation, material, or region. An example generic probability distribution is shown in FIG 3A and discussed below. The probability data 152 can include initial sample probability distributions for a particular formation, material, or 10 region. An example initial sample probability distribution is shown in FIG 3B and discussed below. The probability data 152 can include refined probability distributions that have been modified to represent a particular geographic area, formation, field, layer, etc., for example, by matching microseismic data from the particular geographic area, formation, field, layer, etc. with simulated fracture patterns. An example refined probability distribution is shown in FIG 15 3C and discussed below. The probability data 152 can include output probability distributions representing the output of a probabilistic simulation of complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation. For example, the output probability distribution may be based on complex fracture simulation for multiple different initial geometric models. [0066] The fracture data 153 can include information on fractures, fracture patterns and 20 complex fracture network generated by numerical simulations. The fracture data 153 may identify the locations, sizes, shapes, and other properties of fractures in a model of a subterranean formation. In some implementations, the fracture data 153 is represented in a geometric model or another type of construct. For example, a geometric model may represent a subterranean formation as a collection of rock blocks, and the fractures may be defined with 25 respect to the rock blocks. Example fracture data is represented by the natural fracture patterns shown in FIGS. 2A, 2B, and 2C. Example fracture data is also represented by the geometric models in FIGS. 4A, 4B, and 4C. 100671 The treatment data 154 includes information on injection treatments. For example the treatment data 154 can indicate parameters of a previous injection treatment, parameters of a 30 future injection treatment, and/or parameters.of a proposed injection treatment. Such parameters may include information on flow rates, flow volumes, slurry concentrations, fluid compositions, injection locations, injection times, and/or other parameters. The treatment data 154 can include WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 19 treatment parameters that have been optimized and/or selected based on numerical simulations of complex fracture propagation. [0068] The applications 156 can include software applications, scripts, programs, functions, executables, and/or other modules that are interpreted and/or executed by the processor 160. 5 For example, the applications 156 can include software applications, scripts, programs, functions, executables, and/or other modules that operate alone or in combination as a fracture simulation system. Such applications may include machine-readable instructions for performing one or more of the operations shown in FIGS. 6A and 6B. The applications 156, including the fracture simulation system, can obtain input data, such as probability distributions, microseismic 10 data, treatment data, geometric models, and/or other types of input data, from the memory 150, from another local source, and/or from one or more remote sources (e.g., via the network 180). The applications 156, including the fracture simulation system, can generate output data and store the output data in the memory 150, in another local medium, and/or in one or more remote devices (e.g., by sending the output data via the network 180). 15 [0069] The processor 160 can execute instructions, for example, to generate output data based on data inputs. For example, the processor 160 can run the applications 156 by executing and/or interpreting the software, scripts, programs, functions, executables, and/or other modules contained in the applications 156. The processor 160 may perform one or more of the operations shown in FIGS. 6A and 6B. The input data received by the processor 160 and/or the 20 output data generated by the processor 160 may include any of the microseismic data 151, the probability data 152, the fracture data 153, the treatment data 154, and/or the other data 155. [0070] The systems and techniques described with reference to FIGS. IA, IB, and IC may be implemented in other types of well systems, using other types of equipment and apparatus, as appropriate. For example, FIG ID shows features of an example embodiment of a well system 25 190 that includes a treatment well 191 having multiple fluid injection locations in a subterranean region 193 beneath the surface 189. The subterranean region 193 includes a fracture network 194 that defines the boundaries and discontinuities of rock blocks 195 in a subterranean formation. The example treatment well 191 includes a horizontal well bore 192 having three fluid injection locations 196a, 196b, and 196c in the fracture network 194. Any number of fluid 30 injection locations may be used. For example, a well system may include two, five, tens, hundreds, or any other number of fluid injection locations. Multiple fluid injection locations WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 20 may also be implemented in other types of well bores and/or other types of well systems, such as, for example, vertical well bores, slant well bores, and/or others. [00711 The treatment well 191 includes an injection treatment subsystem 197 that applies injection treatments to the subterranean formation. The injection treatment subsystem 197 5 includes instrument trucks 116, pump trucks 114, and other features that control the communication of treatment fluid into the subterranean region 193 through the well bore 192. The injection treatment subsystem 197 may include any of the features of the injection treatment subsystem 120 of FIGS. 1A and 1B, and may include fewer, additional, and/or different features. The injection treatment subsystem 197 may apply multiple injection treatments in succession. 10 For example, the injection treatment subsystem may treat the subterranean formation in sequence from the toe to the heel of the horizontal well bore 192, and/or in a different sequence in order to improve or optimize the injection treatment. As a particular example, the injection treatment subsystem 197 may apply a first injection treatment to the formation through the well bore 192 at the first injection location 196a, then apply a second injection treatment to the 15 formation through the well bore 192 at the second injection location 196b, and then apply a third injection treatment to the formation through the well bore 192 at the third injection location 196c. The injection treatment subsystem 197 may apply additional injection treatments in additional and/or different locations in the same or a different order. For example, in some cases, multiple injection treatments can be applied simultaneously. 20 [00721 The well system 190 includes sensors 112 at the surface 189. The sensors 112 may detect microseismic data during one or more injection treatments applied to the subterranean region 193 through the well bore 192. The sensors 112 may communicate detected microseismic data to the computing subsystem 110. The computing subsystem 110 can use the microseismic data, for example, to identify and/or predict properties of natural fractures and/or 25 propagated fractures in the fracture network 194. The computing subsystem 110 can simulate, refine, generate, and/or design injection treatments for the subterranean region 193 based on the microseismic data and/or based on the properties of the fracture network 194 gleaned from the microseismic data. For example, the computing subsystem 110 may receive microseismic data collected by the sensors 112 during a fracture treatment applied at the first injection location 30 196a, and the computing subsystem 110 may use the microseismic datato identify properties of natural fractures near the first injection location 196a and/or to predict properties of natural fractures near the second injection location 196b and/or the third injection location 196c.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 21 [0073] In one aspect of operation, the computing subsystem 110 can generate fracture pattern models based on an initial distribution for a fracture parameter. Each fracture pattern model can include estimated and/or simulated locations of natural fractures of the fracture network 194. The computing subsystem 110 can refine the initial distribution and/or generate an updated 5 distribution for the natural fracture parameter based on comparing each fracture pattern model to microseismic event data for the subterranean region 193. The microseismic data may include data collected from a first volume of the formation during a prior fracture treatment that was previously applied to the subterranean formation at one or more first injection locations in the first volume (e.g., the injection location 196a and/or another location). A subsequent injection 10 treatment can be designed based on the updated distribution, and the subsequent injection treatment can be applied to the subterranean formation through the well bore 192. In some implementations, the subsequent injection treatment, which is designed based on the updated distribution, is applied to a second volume of the formation at one or more second injection locations (e.g., the injection location 196b and/or another location). Microseismic data may be 15 collected during application of the subsequent injection treatment, and used to predict fracture parameters for a third volume of the formation. In some cases, the technique of sequentially collecting microseismic data from a volume of a formation, using the microseismic data to predict fracture parameters for another volume of the formation, and then designing and applying a fracture treatment to the other volume of the formation based on the predicted 20 parameters can be repeated in sequence along the length of a well bore. [0074] Some embodiments of a well system may be implemented with additional and/or different variations. For example, in some cases, a well system can be implemented without an observation well or with more than one observation well. As another example, in some cases, a well system can be implemented with more than one production and/or treatment wells. As 25 another example, all or part of a computing subsystem can be integrated with other features of a well system, all or part of a computing subsystem can be implemented as a standalone system , and/or all or part of a computing subsystem can be used in connection with multiple well systems. [00751 FIGS. 2A, 2B, and 2C collectively show an example of matching computer simulated 30 fracture patterns with microseismic data. The matching, which.involves.selecting or identifying fracture patterns that accurately approximate the locations of the microseismic data, can be used to refine probability distributions used to generate the simulated fracture patterns. As such, a WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 22 generic or initial probability distribution can be refined, in some cases by an iterative process, to more accurately reflect the actual distribution of natural fracture parameters in a particular geographic area, location, region, formation, or zone. [00761 FIG 2A is a plot of nine example fracture pattern realizations 202a, 202b, 202c, 202d, 5 202e, 202f, 202g, 202h, and 202i, each generated based on initial probability distributions of fracture parameters. The initial probability distributions can include initial sample distributions generated based on well logs, outcrop data, and/or other types of data. The initial probability distributions may be generated, for example, based on the techniques shown and described with respect to FIGS. 7A, 7B, and/or 7C. The initial probability distribution can include generic 10 distributions of parameters for a selected type of formation, material, or region. A generic distribution can be defined based on a distribution function. Examples of distribution functions include a normal (or "Gaussian") distribution, a log normal distribution, an exponentially decaying distribution, a Poissonian distribution, and others. [00771 Each of the nine fracture pattern realizations in FIG 2A contains major fractures 206a 15 and 206b, represented as bold lines. The major fractures 206a and 206b are the same in each realization, because the locations of those features are known with a high degree of certainty. As such, the major fractures 206a and 206b shown in FIG 2A are not based on a distribution of fracture parameters. The other features (the intermediate features) in each of the nine fracture pattern realizations are based on distributions of fracture parameters because the properties of 20 those features are not known with a high degree of certainty. The intermediate fractures, represented as thin lines in the plots, vary among the nine fracture pattern realizations because the locations (and other properties) of those features are determined by randomly sampling probability distributions. For example, the fractures 208a and 208b in fracture pattern 202a do not appear in the other fracture patterns, and the fractures 208c and 208d in fracture pattern 202g 25 do not appear in the other fracture patterns. [0078] In some embodiments, each realization of the natural fracture network is generated based sampling on values from probability distributions for fracture dip, fracture density, fracture direction, fracture persistence, fracture aperture, fracture trace length, fracture center point location, and/or fracture spacing. The fracture dip can indicate a vertical angle of the fracture 30 with respect to a horizontal orientation. (or some ,other reference orientation). In some implementations, the fracture dip is initially assumed to be n/2, representing a vertical fracture. In some implementations, the fracture dip is initially assumed to be zero, representing a WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 23 horizontal fracture. In some implementations, the fracture dip is initially represented by a normal distribution centered about n/2, a log normal distribution centered about n/2, or another type of distribution. The fracture direction can indicate an azimuthal direction (e.g., North, South, East, West, and combinations thereof) of the fracture. In some implementations, the 5 fracture direction is initially assumed to be uniformly distributed in all directions, from zero to 2a. In some implementations, the fracture direction is initially assumed to have a single value, indicating that all fractures have the same direction. In some implementations, the fracture direction is initially represented by a normal distribution centered about a particular direction, a log normal distribution centered about a particular direction, or another type of distribution. 10 [0079] The fracture persistence and fracture aperture can indicate the shape and size dimensions of the fracture. In some implementations, the fracture persistence and aperture are initially assumed to be identical for all fractures, meaning that all fractures are assumed to have the same dimension and shape. The assumed shapes can be rectangular, elliptical, triangular, circular, another regular shape, and/or arbitrary shapes. In some implementations, the fractures include 15 fractures ranging in size from fractures that contact one square foot of rock to fractures that contact thousands or millions of square feet of rock, and/or fractures of other sizes. The fracture trace length can indicate the length (or in some cases, the half length) of the fracture. In some implementations, the fracture trace length is initially represented by a normal distribution, a log normal distribution, or another type of distribution. 20 [00801 The fracture density can indicate an average number of fractures per unit volume in a subterranean formation or a portion of a subterranean formation. Subterranean formations may exhibit a broad of fracture densities. For example, a subterranean formation may include an average of ten, one hundred, one thousand, or more fractures per cubic mile of formation. In some implementations, the initial fracture density of a subterranean formation is initially 25 represented by a normal distribution, log normal distribution, or another type of distribution. 100811 The fracture spacing can indicate an average spacing between fractures within a fracture set in a formation. For example, in some formations natural fractures tend to form in sets, where each fracture in a set is oriented within approximately sixty degrees of each other. Some formations include multiple sets of fractures. For example, a formation may include a first set 30 of fractures having a primary orientation, which may. be dictated by a maximum stress direction. A formation may also include a second set of fractures having a secondary orientation, which is different from the primary orientation. The secondary orientation may be separated from the WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 24 primary orientation by more than sixty degrees. For example, the secondary orientation can be normal (orthogonal) to the primary orientation. In some implementations, each set of fractures is initially assumed to have a fracture spacing represented by a log normal distribution, a normal distribution, or another type of distribution. 5 100821 The fracture patterns shown in FIG 2A are generated by sampling distributions for fracture density, fracture trace length, and fracture spacing. In some implementations, a graphics processing unit can be used to generate the natural fracture pattern realizations. Each example fracture pattern realization shown in FIG 2A may represents a plan view of, for example, one square mile, two square miles, ten square miles, or another area of a subterranean 10 formation. The areal extent represented by a model may be a fixed or variable value. In some implementations, the areal extent is input by a user. In some implementations, the areal extent is determined based on the locations of microseismic events, based on a size of a reservoir or formation, based on sampling a distribution, and/or by another technique. For each realization, the center point of each non-major fracture is determined based at least in part on sampling the 15 fracture spacing, and the length of each non-major fracture is determined based at least in part on sampling the fracture trace length distribution. While nine realizations are shown in the example, any number of realizations can be used. In some cases, hundreds or thousands of realizations are used. FIGS. 2A, 2B, and 2C show examples of two-dimensional fracture models. In some implementations, three-dimensional fracture models may be used. 20 [00831 FIGS. 2B is a plot of the nine example fracture patterns of FIG 2A, with a map of microseismic event locations overlaid on each fracture pattern. The map of microseismic events is the same in each realization and overlaid on each fracture pattern in order to compare the microseismic data to each individual fracture pattern. The example microseismic data includes sixteen data points. For example, the data points 210a, 210b, and 210c labeled in fracture 25 patterns 202a and 202g are in the same location in all nine fracture patterns shown. While sixteen microseismic data points are shown in FIG 2B, any number of microseismic data points can be used. In some implementations, hundreds or thousands of microseismic data points are used. In some implementations, the microseismic data points that are plotted with and/or compared to the fracture patterns can include a subset of data points selected from a larger set of 30 microseismic data points. For example, the larger set of microseismic data. point can include data points distributed over a range of vertical depths, and the selected data points can include a planar set of data points at (or within a certain range of) a particular depth. As a particular WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 25 example, the first pane 502 of the graphical user interface 500 of FIG 5 shows microseismic data points distributed over a range of vertical depths, and the second pane 502 of the graphical user interface 500 shows a selected subset of the data points associated with a particular depth in the range. 5 [0084] Each microseismic data point can include information on a location associated with a microseismic event and information on a magnitude associated with the microseismic event. The information on the location of the microseismic event may include spatial coordinates (e.g., latitude, longitude, elevation, depth, etc.) that identify a location in the subterranean formation where acoustic data indicates a microseismic event occurred. Acoustic data gathered from one 10 or more locations can be used to identify the location of the microseismic event, for example by triangulation or another technique. The location and/or the magnitude may be identified based on differences in time of arrival of the detected acoustic signal, absolute or relative magnitudes of the detected acoustic signals, waveform and/or relative phase differences of the detected acoustic signals, and/or other properties of the detected acoustic signals. The location of each 15 microseismic event is indicated in FIG 2B by the location of a data point on each fracture pattern plot. The magnitude of each microseismic event is not represented in the example plots of FIG 2B. However, in some implementations, the magnitude of each microseismic event may be represented by a size of the data point, a color of the data point, a shape of the data point, and/or in another manner. Each data point may additionally include information on a time 20 associated with the microseismic event. For example, the time information may identify an absolute or relative time of occurrence of each microseismic event. [00851 Each microseismic data point may additionally include information on an error or uncertainty associated with the measured microseismic event. For example, there may be an error bar associated with the location and/or the magnitude of each microseismic event. In some 25 implementations, the location of a microseismic event includes a range of possible locations representing uncertainty and/or errors in the microseismic data. While error bars are not shown in FIGS. 2B and 2C, a plot or a map of microseismic events may include a graphical representation of error bars for microseismic event data. For example, in some instances, the location for each microseismic data point may be represented as the center of a sphere or an 30 ellipsoid, and the radius of the sphere can represent the uncertainty and/or error associated with the measurement. In two dimensions, each microseismic data point may be analogously represented as the center of a circle or an ellipse. Error and/or uncertainty in the location and/or WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 26 magnitude may be represented by another type of geometrical shape and/or in a different manner. [0086] The plots of FIG 2B can be used to compare the computer-generated fracture pattern realizations with the microseismic data to determine which fracture pattern realizations 5 correspond to the microseismic data. The comparison can be implemented using a variety of techniques. As discussed with respect to FIG 6A, the comparison can be fully automated, requiring little or no human interaction for comparing and/or selecting fracture patterns that correspond to the microseismic data. Also discussed with respect to FIG 6A, the comparison can utilize human interaction and/or human feedback for comparing and/or selecting fracture 10 patterns that correspond to the microseismic data. [0087] As shown in FIG 2B, the fracture pattern 202a more accurately represents the microseismic data than the fracture pattern 202g. For example, the microseismic data points 210a, 210b, 210c, and others are all relatively close to the fracture 208a. By contrast, the microseismic data points 210a, 2 1Ob, and 210c are relatively far from the closest fracture 208d. 15 As such, the fracture pattern 202a may be selected as an accurate representation of the microseismic data, and the fracture pattern 202g may not be selected as an accurate representation of the microseismic data. FIG 2C is a plot of the nine example fracture patterns of FIG 2B, showing which individual fracture patterns were selected based on a comparison of the fracture pattern with the overlaid microseismic data. As shown in FIG 2C, example fracture 20 patterns 202a, 202c, 202d, 202e, 202h, and 202i are selected as "matches" that well-approximate the microseismic data, and example fracture patterns 202b, 202f, and 202g are selected as "mismatches" that poorly approximate to the microseismic data. In various implementations, different criteria are used for comparing and selecting fracture patterns. For example, in some implementations, pressure history matching and/or other techniques can be used to compare and 25 select fracture patterns. [0088] The selected fracture patterns 202a, 202c, 202d, 202e, 202h, and 202i can be used to refine the initial probability distributions that were used to generate all nine of the fracture patterns shown in FIG 2A. For example, refined probability distributions for fracture properties can be generated based on the selected fracture patterns, and new realizations can be generated 30 based on the refined probability distributions.. As a particular example, a new probability distribution for fracture spacing can be generated based on the selected fracture patterns 202a, 202c, 202d, 202e, 202h, and 202i, which results in a refined fracture spacing probability WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 27 distribution. As another particular example, a new probability distribution for fracture trace length can be generated based on the selected fracture patterns 202a, 202c, 202d, 202e, 202h, and 202i, which results in a refined fracture trace length probability distribution. In some instances, a refined probability distribution for a fracture parameter can be normalized and/or 5 combined with another probability distribution for the fracture parameter. For example, multiple field samples from one or more subterranean regions can be combined and/or refined. Probability distributions can be combined, for example, by summing and renormalizing the probability distributions, or by another technique. [00891 FIG 3A is an example generic probability distribution for an example fracture parameter. 10 The horizontal axis represents a range of values for a fracture parameter (e.g., fracture dip, direction, length, density, spacing, aperture, center point location, persistence, etc.), and the vertical axis represents a range of probabilities. Each point on the line plot between the axes indicates the probability of a fracture in a subterranean formation having the corresponding fracture parameter value. The example line plot in FIG 3A is generated based on a continuous 15 log normal distribution. Generic probability distributions may include discrete distributions, and/or generic probability distributions may have other functional forms, such as a log normal distribution, a normal distribution, an exponentially decaying distribution, a Poissonian distribution, and/or others. In some cases, the generic probability distribution can be refined based on microseismic data, so that the refined probability distribution more accurately 20 represents the distribution of parameters in a particular geographic region or formation. In some cases, a generic probability distribution may be generated, for example, based on the techniques described with respect to FIGS. 7A, 7B, and/or 7C. [00901 FIG 3B is an example of an initial sample distribution for an example fracture parameter. The horizontal axis represents individual values for a fracture parameter, and the 25 vertical axis represents a range of probabilities. Each bar in the bar plot between the axes indicates the probability of a fracture in a subterranean formation having the corresponding fracture parameter value. The initial sample distribution is generated by randomly sampling the generic probability distribution of FIG 3A. In some implementations, a distribution may be randomly sampled, for example, using a random number generator or a pseudorandom number 30 generator. For example, software programs such as Mathematica (distributed, by Wolfram Research), MATLAB (distributed by The Math Works), and/or other programs may be used to randomly sample a probability distribution. The initial sample distribution may represent the WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 28 distribution of fracture parameters in one or more realizations of a natural fracture pattern model. In some implementations, an initial sample distribution is generated for each natural fracture pattern model. In some implementations, an initial sample distribution is generated for multiple natural fracture pattern models. In some cases, a refined probability distribution can be 5 generated from one or more initial sample distributions based on a comparison of microseismic data with the fracture pattern models generated using the initial sample distribution. [00911 FIG 3C is an example refined probability distribution for an example fracture parameter. As in FIG 3B, the horizontal axis in FIG 3C represents individual values for a fracture parameter, and the vertical axis represents a range of probabilities. Each bar in the bar plot 10 between the axes indicates the probability of a fracture in a subterranean formation having the corresponding fracture parameter value. The example refined probability distribution in FIG 3C is generated by selecting values from the initial sample distribution in FIG 3B. The values selected from the initial sample distribution and included in the refined distribution may be chosen based on a comparison of a fracture pattern model with microseismic event data. For 15 example, a refined probability distribution can be the output of an one or more iterations of the refinement process described with respect to FIGS. 2A, 2B, 2C, and 6A. In some cases, the refined probability distribution can be a more accurate representation of the distribution of values of the fracture parameter in a particular geographic area, formation, field, layer, etc. In some cases, the refined probability distribution can be further refined based on additional 20 microseismic data (e.g., by iterating the refining technique), so that the refined probability distribution more accurately represents a particular geographic area, formation, field, layer, etc. [00921 Any of the probability distributions shown in FIGS. 3A, 3B, and 3C, as well as other types of probability distributions can be used to generate, and/or can be included in, a probabilistic earth model. The probabilistic earth model can be used to populate an initial 25 geometric model of a subterranean formation. For example, populating the initial geometric model may include generating a natural fracture pattern model for the subterranean formation, which can serve as a starting point for complex fracture propagation simulations. [00931 FIG 4A shows an example input geometric model 400a, which includes discrete elements representing individual rock blocks of a subterranean formation. An input geometric 30 model may represent rock blocks defined by. a natural fracture network in a subterranean formation. The geometric model 400a includes seven discrete rock blocks of varying shapes and sizes. In some implementations of a geometric model, each rock block may itself include WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 29 one or more fractures. For example, each of the seven rock blocks in the geometric model 400a may include one or more fractures that are not shown in FIG 4A. The example geometric model 400a is a simplified example, and a geometric model may generally include many more discrete elements of arbitrary shapes and sizes. A geometric model may also include rock 5 blocks of uniform shapes and sizes. 100941 A geometric model may include information representing the boundaries, locations, orientations, shapes, and/or other properties of rock blocks in a rock formation. For example, information on a boundary of a rock block may describe a shape of the rock block (e.g., square, triangular, elliptical, or an arbitrary shape) in any suitable manner. A shape of a rock block may 10 be represented, for example, by variables or data structures that describe vertex locations, vertex angles, side lengths, arc lengths, arc angles, connectivity or lack thereof, and/or other properties. The information on the boundaries of a rock block may include information on a location of the rock block and/or information on an orientation of the rock block. A location of a rock block may be represented by variables or data structures that describe one or more vertex locations, a 15 center point location, and/or other types of information. Location may be described with respect to a reference location, a location on a grid, with respect to other rock blocks, and/or in another manner. In some cases, a subterranean formation model used for complex fracture simulation includes a geometric model that describes boundaries of the formation. Information on boundaries, locations, orientations, shapes, and/or other properties of rock blocks may include 20 two-dimensional data, three-dimensional data, and/or other types of data. For example, a geometric model may represent a two-dimensional plane in a formation, and the information on boundaries of rock blocks may include boundaries within the two-dimensional plane. As another example, a geometric model may represent a three-dimensional volume in a formation, and the information on boundaries of rock blocks may include surface and/or edge boundaries 25 within the three-dimensional volume. 100951 One or more input geometric models can be generated based on a probabilistic earth model. For example, a probabilistic earth model can be used to generate a natural fracture pattern for a subterranean formation, and the resulting fracture pattern can be used to define the boundaries, locations, shapes, and/or orientations of the rock blocks represented by the input 30 geometric model. Thus, the boundaries of the elements. of an. input geometric model may represent a natural fracture network in a subterranean formation. In probabilistic simulations, several input geometric models are generated by independently sampling probability WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 30 distributions of a probabilistic earth model. Each input geometric model can be used to simulate complex fracture propagation in the formation represented by the geometric model; the simulation of each geometric model generates an output geometric model. The output geometric models can be analyzed individually and/or collectively to predict an outcome of an 5 injection treatment, drilling, and/or other subterranean activities. In some cases, an input geometric model can be generated by another technique, such as a deterministic earth model. [0096] A geometric model representing rock blocks of a subterranean formation can be used with a discontinuum model to numerically simulate complex fracture propagation in the subterranean formation. The discontinuum model can simulate internal and external forces 10 acting on each rock block represented by the geometric model. The simulated forces can include natural geological forces acting on the rock blocks independent of any drilling, production, or treatment activity. The simulated forces can include forces generated in part or in full due to drilling activities, production activities, and/or treatment activities. Such simulations can predict behavior of the rock blocks in response to the modeled forces. For example, the 15 output geometric model can include complex fracture networks, including fractures that extend to a well bore, along multiple azimuths, in multiple different planes and directions, along discontinuities in rock, and in multiple regions of a reservoir. The discontinuum model may simulate rotations, translations, deformations, fractures, and other types of responses of each individual rock block. 20 [0097] The geometric model 400a can be used with the DDA technique, the NMM technique, variations of these techniques, and/or other techniques to simulate complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation. The DDA technique can be formulated with rock displacements as the unknowns, and the technique can solve for the displacements by minimizing the energy of a block system for a given load. According to the DDA technique, translation, rotation, normal 25 strain, shear strain, and possibly other functions are permitted for each rock block. In some implementations, there is no tension between blocks and no penetration of one block into another. Rock block contact constraints can be numerically implemented with "penalty submatrices" within a global stiffness matrix. A penalty submatrix can effectively insert a "spring" (i.e., a force model that varies linearly with position) or another type of force at the 30 contact point between rocks, and the spring stiffness can be.-sufficient to.prevent penetration. [0098] In some implementations of the DDA technique, when a shear component of force between rock blocks is greater than a frictional force between the rocks blocks (e.g., friction WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 31 according to Coulomb's law or another functional form), block sliding can occur along the contact. Modeling the friction forces can be accomplished by modeling a spring force parallel to a reference line along a contact. The DDA technique can include a variety of different block contact algorithms, sub-blocking algorithms, and/or fracturing algorithms. An example block 5 contact algorithm uses an iterative Augmented Lagrangian technique for obtaining exact solutions for contact forces. The Augmented Lagrangian technique can utilize the spring model for block contacts, while adding a Lagrangian multiplier. Implementing the Augmented Lagrangian technique may reduce or eliminate uncertainty associated with selecting an arbitrarily large spring constant to constrain block penetration using the penalty method. Other 10 approaches utilize a sub-blocking algorithm that subdivides each block and uses dual springs along and across each internal contact to enforce a "no-intrablock-displacement" constraint. Including the sub-blocking algorithm may allow tensile stresses to be transferred through sub block contacts. A fracturing algorithm can also be added. An example fracturing algorithm uses a Mohr-Coulomb criteria to model block fracturing. 15 [0099] Along with a DDA-based approach or another approach, a discontinuum model for simulating complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation may also incorporate fluid flow, fracture failure criteria, initiation tests for each block, intrablock fracture propagation models, and/or other features. A fluid flow model may include, for example, steady-state fluid flow in the fractures, unsteady-state fluid flow in the fractures, sink/source terms, transient 20 interporosity flow, and other types of flow. [0100] As another example, the geometric model 400a can be used with the NMM technique. Like the DDA technique, the NMM technique can be used to study the mechanical behavior of discontinuous rock masses. For example, the NMM technique can be used to analyze fissures, cleavages, joints, faults, and/or other features of rock blocks. 25 [01011 In some implementations, the NMM technique utilizes a two-layer model to describe a physical rock block system. The two-layer model includes two mesh layers: a mathematical mesh and a physical mesh. The physical mesh represents the physical boundaries and/or discontinuities of the rock blocks. For example, a physical mesh can be generated based on the geometric model 400a. The physical mesh may include, for example, information on fissures, 30 cleavages, joints, faults, boundaries, locations, and/or other physical. features of the rock block system. The mathematical mesh is a regular pattern or grid of geometric shapes (e.g., triangles, rectangles, etc.) that can be overlaid onto the physical mesh. The mathematical mesh is larger WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 32 than the physical mesh, and the size of the grid elements (i.e., the size of the geometric shapes that the mathematical mesh is composed of) can be determined, for example, based on computational precision requirements, computational accuracy requirements, and/or other considerations. A covered manifold mesh is constructed by overlaying the mathematical mesh 5 onto physical mesh and trimming the mathematical mesh at the boundaries of the physical mesh. The covered manifold mesh, which includes the part of the mathematical mesh that intersects the physical mesh, may be used to simulate mechanical behavior of the rock block system, for example, to simulate fracture growth, fracture dilation, fracture propagation, rock block movement, and/or other phenomena. 10 [01021 In some implementations of the NMM technique, the covered manifold mesh includes nodes and elements that provide a framework for simulating dynamics of the rock block system. The nodes and elements may be identified based on the geometric shapes of the mathematical mesh grid. For example, when the mathematical mesh is a grid of triangles, each triangle can be an element and each corner of a triangle can be a node. Each node may contact (or "cover") 15 multiple elements. For example, when the mathematical mesh is a grid of triangles, each node may cover six triangular elements. The boundaries of the elements need not coincide with the boundaries of the physical mesh. Instead, weighting functions are used to connect the physical mesh with the mathematical mesh and to track the physical boundaries of the rock block system. For example, when an element contains a discontinuity, thus dividing the element into two parts, 20 the nodes covering that element can be duplicated, and one set of the duplicated nodes can be used to track a first part of the element, and the other set of duplicated nodes can be used to track a second part of the element. The weighting function for a node can be used to identify which part of each element is tracked by the node. [0103] To solve for displacements, the NMM technique may use a Simplex integration 25 technique. In some implementations, the Simplex integration technique converts an integration over an arbitrary area to a sum of integrations over many grid elements (e.g., triangles, or another shape) of the arbitrary area, and each grid element is evaluated analytically. For example, the Simplex technique can be used to solve for first-order linear displacements of each node. The Simplex technique can be used to solve for higher order (second-order, third-order, 30 etc.) displacements of the nodes. To model the kinematics of the.rock block system, the NMM technique may utilize the same contact modeling approach as the DDA technique. For example, the NMM technique can model kinematics with the constraints of (1) no tension between blocks WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 33 and (2) no penetration of one block into another. The NMM technique may also utilize the Lagrangian multiplier approach, the augmented Lagrangian multiplier approach, and penalty matrices that are used in connection with the DDA technique. [0104] FIG 4B shows an example output geometric model 400b, which could result from a 5 discontinuum model simulation of the geometric model 400a of FIG 4A. The example output geometric model 400b includes a tensile fracture 402. A tensile fracture may occur in a formation when rock blocks fracture and/or separate. As such, a tensile fracture can be simulated in a geometric model when the forces modeled by the simulation cause elements of the geometric model to fracture or separate along a fracture boundary perpendicular to the 10 fracture plane. 101051 FIG 4C shows an example output geometric model 400c, which could result from a discontinuum model simulation of the geometric model 400a of FIG 4A. The example output geometric model 400c includes a shear fracture 404. A shear fracture may occur in a formation when a rock block fractures or slides along a fracture boundary due to shear forces, acting 15 parallel to the fracture plane. As such, a shear fracture can be simulated in a geometric model when the shear forces modeled by the simulation cause one element of the geometric model to fracture or slide along a fracture boundary parallel to the fracture plane. [01061 An output geometric model can include other types of fractures and effects that are not shown in the example output geometric models 400b and 400c. For example, in some 20 implementations, the elements of the geometric model can fracture or split to form additional elements in the geometric model, the elements of the geometric model can rotate and/or translate to change the orientation and/or position of the elements in the geometric model; the elements of the geometric model can deform to change the shapes of the elements in the geometric model, and/or the geometric model can exhibit other effects. 25 [0107] Some embodiments and/or some aspects of the techniques and operations described herein may be implemented by one or more software programs or applications running on a computing device configured to provide the functionality described. Such software programs and applications can include installed applications, executable files, internet applications, and/or other types of software tools. For example, a software application can be designed to analyze 30 microseismic data, to identify properties of natural fractures (e.g., fracture density, fracture orientation, fracture direction, fracture trace length, and/or others), to generate and/or refine probability distributions of natural fracture parameters, to generate geometric models of natural WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 34 and/or complex fracture patterns, to simulate one or more injection treatments in a stochastic or deterministic manner, to predict rock blocks behavior during an injection treatment, to simulate resource production, and/or to perform other operations. In some instances, an application provides a graphical user interface that displays information to a user and may also allow a user 5 to provide input. A graphical user interface can be displayed on a display device, such as a monitor, a display screen, or another type of device. FIG 5 shows an example screen shot 500 of a graphical user interface generated by a software tool for simulating fracture propagation in a subterranean formation. Such numerical simulation software can be used to analyze microseismic data and/or to simulate complex fracture propagation over a broad range of 10 vertical depths, across vertical discontinuities, over a broad planar range, across horizontal discontinuities, encompassing diverse formations and complex fracture networks. [0108] The example screen shot 500 includes a first pane 502 (shown on the left in FIG. 5) and a second pane 520 (shown on the right in FIG 5). The first pane 502 presents an elevation view of the rock layers and microseismic event locations projected onto an xz-plane. In the first pane 15 502, the vertical z-axis represents the vertical depth dimension in the subterranean formation (e.g., distance below the surface, altitude, etc.), and the horizontal x-axis represents a horizontal dimension in the formation (e.g., corresponding to a range of latitudes, a range of longitudes, or a combination). The second pane 520 presents a plan view of a rock layer of the subterranean formation and microseismic event locations projected onto the xy-plane. In the second pane 20 520, the vertical y-axis and horizontal x-axis both represent horizontal dimensions in the formation. [01091 In the first pane 502, a vertical line plot 506 indicates changes in rock lithology in the formation. To the right of the vertical line plot 506, locations of microseismic events are plotted. As in FIGS. 2B and 2C, each microseismic data point can include information on a 25 location associated with a microseismic event, information on a magnitude associated with the microseismic event, information on a time associated with the microseismic event, information on an error associated with each microseismic event, and/or other information. For example, the data points 504a and 504b represent measured microseismic event locations. The first pane 502 presents paired lines 508a and 508b that indicate a selected horizontal layer of the subterranean 30 formation. The second pane 520 presents a plot, of the.microseismic events in the vertical range between the paired lines 508a and 508b. For example, the data points 504c and 504d in the second pane 520 represent two of the microseismic event locations between the paired lines WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 35 508a and 508b. In some implementations, a user can move (e.g., click and drag) one or both of the paired lines 508a and 508b to select a different layer and/or additional layers of the subterranean formation. [01101 The shape of each data point in the first pane 502 and/or second pane 520 (e.g., data 5 points 504a, 504b, 504c, 504d, etc.) indicates the stage of fracture treatment when the microseismic data corresponding to that point was collected - data points having the same shape (e.g., circle, triangle, left square, right triangle, diamond, etc.) were collected during the same fracture treatment stage. In some implementations, data points may be color coded, shaded, and/or otherwise configured based on the stage of an injection treatment that produced the 10 events, based on the magnitude of the events, based on the error associated with the events, and/or based on other information. For example, microseismic events recorded during a pad phase may be shaded with a first color, and microseismic events recorded during a proppant laden phase may be shaded with a second color. The center point 526 in the second pane 520 may represent, for example, a well center for a vertical well, a fracture stage entry point center 15 for a horizontal well, and/or another reference location. In some implementations, a reference line may also be presented in the first pane 502 to represent, for example, a well center for a vertical well, a fracture stage entry point center for a horizontal well, and/or another reference location, and microseismic events may be plotted in the xz-plane relative to the reference line. [01111 In some implementations, microseismic events are recorded with respect to time, and a 20 user interface control (e.g., a slider, or another type of control) in the software tool may allow the microseismic events in the first pane 502 and the second pane 520 to be animated. In some implementations, a view and/or zoon control allows one or more of the plots presented in the user interface to be expanded, contracted, panned, and/or otherwise manipulated. [0112] In the second pane 520, a solid rectangle 522 represents an area that contains a 25 propagated fracture, for example, a fracture that was initiated and propagated through the formation during an injection treatment. The propagated fracture extends through the center point 526. The microseismic events in the solid rectangle 522 may be excluded when analyzing the microseismic data to identify natural fractures and/or properties of a natural fracture network. A dotted rectangle 523 represents an area that contains a natural fracture, for example, 30 a fracture that existed in the .formation. prior to the. injection. treatment that, initiated and propagated the fracture in the solid rectangle 522. The line 524a indicates a natural fracture. The location and other properties of the natural fracture may be determined, for example, based WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 36 on the times, the locations, the magnitudes, and/or other properties of the microseismic events in the rectangle 523. The line 524b indicates estimated locations of a second natural fracture. The estimated locations of the natural fractures may be used to estimate, calculate, and/or otherwise identify properties of a natural fracture network. 5 [0113] FIG 6A is a flow chart of an example process 600 for refining a probability distribution of subterranean fracture properties. Some or all of the operations in the process 600 can be implemented by one or more computing devices. In some implementations, the process 600 may include additional, fewer, and/or different operations performed in the same or a different order. Moreover, one or more of the individual operations and/or subsets of the operations in the 10 process 600 can be performed in isolation and/or in different contexts to perform one or more of the disclosed techniques. Output data generated by the process 600, including output generated by intermediate operations, can include stored, displayed, printed, transmitted, communicated and/or processed information. [0114] At 602, an initial probability distribution for one or more fracture parameters is obtained. 15 For example, the initial probability distribution can be obtained by reading the initial probability distribution from a memory, by receiving the initial probability distribution from a remote device, and/or in a different manner. The fracture parameters can include one or more fracture parameters for a subterranean formation. Example fracture parameters include orientation, direction, dip, length, depth, density, spacing, aperture, persistence, and others. The initial 20 probability distribution can include a generic probability distribution. For example, a generic distribution of fracture lengths for shale may include a range of values of fracture length observed in typical shale formations and a probability associated with each value in the range. The probability may indicate the likelihood of finding a fracture having a given length in a typical shale formation. The initial probability distribution can include an initial sample 25 probability distribution. For example, an initial sample distribution of fracture lengths for a formation may include values of fracture length observed in a particular formation and a probability associated with each value. The probability may indicate the observed likelihood of a fracture having a given length in the particular formation. The initial probability distribution may be generated, for example, based on the techniques described with respect to FIGS. 7A, 7B, 30 and/or 7C. [0115] At 604, microseismic event data is obtained. The microseismic event data can be obtained by reading the microseismic event data from a memory, by receiving the microseismic WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 37 event data from a remote device, and/or in a different manner. The microseismic event data may include information on the measured locations of multiple microseismic events, information on a measured magnitude of each microseismic event, information on an uncertainty associated with each microseismic event, and/or information on a time associated with each microseismic 5 event. The microseismic event data may include microseismic data collected at an observation well, at a treatment well, at the surface, and/or at other locations in a well system. The microseismic data (604) and the probability distributions (602) may correspond to the same subterranean region, formation, or well, or the microseismic data (604) and the probability distributions (602) may correspond to the different subterranean regions, formations, or wells. 10 In some examples, the initial probability distribution is based on a treatment well data log, and the microseismic data includes information collected during treatment and/or production activity at the treatment well. [01161 At 606, multiple realizations of a fracture pattern realization are generated by sampling the probability distributions. For example, one or more data objects defined in memory can 15 represent each fracture pattern realization. A data object representing a fracture pattern realization may include values that represent the locations, sizes, shapes, connectivity, and other features of each fracture in the fracture pattern. Properties of each fracture in a fracture pattern realization can be determined based on randomly sampling the initial probability distributions. For example, the length of a given fracture in a fracture pattern realization may be determined 20 by generating a random number and using the random number to select a value from an initial probability distribution for the trace length parameter. As another example, the spacing of a set of fractures in a fracture pattern realization may be determined by generating a random number and using the random number to select a value from the initial probability distribution for the spacing parameter. Each of the nine realizations in FIG 2A is an example fracture pattern 25 model. [0117] Each fracture pattern model generated at 606 can represent an estimated or predicted natural fracture pattern for a subterranean formation. The natural fracture pattern realizations generated at 606 can be compared to microseismic event data at 610. Alternatively or additionally, in some implementations, complex fracture propagation can be simulated in each 30 fracture pattern realization at 608 before the fracture patterns are. compared to microseismic event data at 610. In either situation, at 610, each fracture pattern realization, which may WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 38 include a natural fracture pattern and/or propagated complex fractures, is compared with the microseismic event data obtained at 604. [0118] The comparison at 610 can be implemented using a variety of different techniques. Two example techniques are shown in FIG 6A. Other techniques may also be used. In a first 5 example technique for comparing the fracture pattern models with microseismic event data, at 612, each fracture pattern is mapped or plotted with the microseismic event data. For example, FIG 2B shows nine fracture pattern models mapped with microseismic event data overlaid on each fracture pattern. At 614 (and as shown in the example in FIG 2B), each fracture pattern model mapped with microseismic event data can be presented (e.g., to a user) in a graphical user 10 interface. Each fracture pattern model mapped with microseismic event data, or groups of fracture pattern models mapped with microseismic event data, can be presented sequentially or concurrently. Presenting the fracture pattern models mapped with microseismic event data may allow a user to visually inspect each map to determine whether the microseismic data corresponds to the fracture pattern. At 616, selections of one or more fracture pattern models 15 are received (e.g., from a user interface device, through the graphical user interface, etc.). For example, the selections may indicate "matches," which are fracture pattern realizations that accurately approximate the microseismic data, or the selections may indicate "mismatches," which are fracture pattern realizations that poorly approximate the microseismic data. For example, FIG 2C shows an example of three selected mismatches that have been identified, in 20 the example shown, as poorly approximating the microseismic data. [0119] In some implementations, the comparison of the fracture pattern models with the microseismic data may be performed in an automated manner, without utilizing human interaction. In a second example technique for comparing the fracture pattern models with microseismic event data, at 618, distances between microseismic events and the nearest fracture 25 in each fracture pattern model are calculated. The distances can be calculated, for example, by a processor. In some implementations, for each microseismic data point, a nearest fracture (i.e., a fracture nearest the microseismic data point) is identified in each fracture pattern model. A distance to the nearest fracture from the microseismic data point can be calculated for each microseismic data point and for each fracture pattern model. The calculated distances may 30 account for uncertainty associated with the locations of the, microseismic data points. In some cases, the calculated distances can be weighted based on the magnitude of the microseismic event. For example, a larger magnitude microseismic event may be weighted more heavily than WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 39 a lower magnitude microseismic event. The weighting can be linear, polynomial, exponential, logarithmic, a combination of those, and/or another type of weighting. At 620, fracture pattern models are selected based on the distances calculated at 618. Selecting fracture pattern models may include determining for each fracture pattern model one or more indices based on the 5 calculated distances. For example, the distances (or the weighted distances) may be summed (and/or combined in another manner) for each fracture pattern model to generate one or more indices. As another example, the largest or smallest distances (or weighted distances) may be identified for each fracture pattern model to generate one or more indices. The index (or indices) for each fracture pattern (which may include the combined distances, selected distances, 10 and/or another type of index) can be used to determine whether the microseismic data corresponds to that fracture pattern. For example, a fracture pattern model having an index greater than a threshold value can be designated a "mismatch," and/or a fracture pattern model having an index less than a threshold value can be designated a "match." As another example, the index for each fracture pattern can be compared to the indices for the other fracture pattern 15 models, and a subset of the fracture pattern models can be selected based on the comparison. [0120] At 622, the probability distributions are refined based on the comparison. The refined probability distribution is generated based on the results of comparing the generated fracture patterns with the microseismic event data. The refined probability distribution may represent the natural fracture parameter of the subterranean formation more accurately than the initial 20 probability distributions used to generate the fracture patterns. [01211 Refining the probability distribution for a given fracture parameter may result in an increase in the probability for certain values of the parameter and/or a decrease in the probability for certain values of the parameter. The particular probabilities that are increased and/or decreased and the amount by which they are increased and/or decreased may be determined 25 based on the selected fracture pattern models. For example, the refined distribution of fracture lengths can be generated based on the "matches" and/or the "mismatches" identified at 610. For example, the refined distribution can be generated according to the values of fracture parameters in each of the "matches." In some implementations, the values of fracture parameters in each of the "matches" becomes a sample, and the refined distribution is calculated based on the sample. 30 In some instances, the refined distribution can be renormalized. and/or combined with a distribution for a nearby field, well, or formation..

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 40 [01221 The refinement of a probability distribution may result in the probability distribution more accurately representing the physical properties of the subterranean formation represented by the microseismic data. A fracture pattern model generated based on the refined probability distribution may correspond more closely to the microseismic data than a fracture pattern model 5 generated based on the initial probability distribution. In some cases, at 622, a probability will be increased for values of a parameter occurring frequently in the fracture pattern realizations that accurately represent the microseismic data, and/or a probability may be decreased for values of a parameter occurring infrequently in the fracture pattern realizations that accurately represent the microseismic data. In some cases, a probability will be decreased for values of a 10 parameter occurring frequently in the fracture pattern realizations that do not accurately represent the microseismic data, and/or a probability will be increased for values of a parameter occurring infrequently in the fracture pattern realizations that do not accurately represent the microseismic data. [01231 After the probability distributions are refined at 622, one or more operations of the 15 process 600 may be iterated using the refined probability distributions as input probability distributions. For example, some or all of the operations 602, 606, 608, 610, and 622 and associated sub-processes can be repeated in an iterative manner, further refining the probability distribution upon each iteration. In some cases, such an iterative process can be repeated until an end condition is satisfied. For example, the end condition can be based on the absolute or 20 relative amount by which the probability distribution is refined in each iteration, the end condition can be based on the number of iterations, and/or the end condition can be based on other factors. [01241 At 626, the refined probability distributions are used. The refined probability distributions can be used for a variety of purposes. For example, the refined probability 25 distributions can be incorporated into a probabilistic earth model. A probabilistic earth model and/or the refined probability distribution can be used to generate an input geometric model for numerical simulations of complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation. [0125] A probability distribution can be refined according to the process 600 based on microseismic data in a first region or formation, and the refined probability distribution can be 30 applied to simulations of another region or formation. As. such,. the refining process can produce an output probability distribution that is extrapolated to a different region, zone, formation, field, or well site.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 41 [0126] In some implementations, pressure history matching may also be used to refine a probability distribution for fracture parameters. In some implementations, in addition to comparing fracture pattern models to microseismic event data, formation pressures observed during an injection treatment are compared to formation pressures simulated using the fracture 5 pattern model. For example, a fracture pattern models (e.g., "matches" or "mismatches") may be selected based on a correlation (or lack thereof) between observed formation pressure and simulated formation pressure. The observed formation pressure may be recorded during an injection treatment, and the fracture pattern model may be used to calculate a model formation pressure. Selecting fracture property values that minimize the difference between the observed 10 formation pressure and the model formation pressure may lead to an improved distribution of fracture property values. For example, comparisons of surface pressure, bottomhole pressure, closure pressure, and/or net pressure (i.e., the difference between bottomhole pressure and closure pressure) can be used. A pressure matching technique may present graphical comparisons to a user (e.g., Cartesian, log-log, and/or other plots of observed pressure and 15 model pressure versus time) and receive input from the user based on the graphical comparisons. A pressure matching technique may include an automated technique that calculates differences between observed and model formation pressures over time. In some implementations, an observed complex fracture geometry may be compared to complex fractures in a fracture pattern model. For example, fracture pattern models may be selected based on pressure history 20 matching, microseismic data matching, propagated fracture geometry matching, and/or other types of observed / model data matching. [01271 FIG 6B is a flow chart of an example process 630 for simulating complex fracture propagation in a subterranean formation. The process 630 may be used for probabilistic simulation of complex fracture propagation. For example, the process 630 may include 25 simulating complex fracture propagation in multiple realizations of an input geometric model, thereby generating multiple output geometric models. Such probabilistic simulations may be implemented by iterating one or more operations of the process 630. Each iteration may include a single geometric model, or multiple geometric models may be simulated in parallel in each of one or more iterations. Some or all of the operations in the process 630 can be implemented by 30 one or more computing devices. In some implementations, the process 63.0 may include additional, fewer, and/or different operations performed in the same or a different order. Moreover, one or more of the individual operations and/or subsets of the operations in the WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 42 process 630 can be performed in isolation and/or in different contexts to perform one or more of the disclosed techniques. Output data generated by the process 630, including output generated by intermediate operations, can include stored, displayed, printed, communicated, transmitted, and/or processed information. 5 [0128] At 632, a probabilistic earth model for a subterranean region is obtained. For example, the probabilistic earth model can be obtained by reading the probabilistic earth model from a memory, by receiving the probabilistic earth model from a remote device, and/or in a different manner. A probabilistic earth model for a subterranean region describes characteristics of the subterranean region and accounts for uncertainty in some or all of the characteristics. The 10 uncertainty may result from imprecise or incomplete knowledge of the characteristics, inhomogeneity of the characteristics, and/or other sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic earth model may include probability distributions for characteristics of the subterranean region and/or rock formations in the subterranean region. For example, probabilistic earth model may include (or be generated based on) the refined probability distributions generated by the process 600 of 15 FIG 6A. The characteristics of the subterranean region described by the probabilistic earth model may include sizes and/or locations of rock formations in the region, composition of formation materials (e.g., shale, sandstone, carbonates, coal, mudstone, granite, and/or others), density of the formation materials (e.g., mass density, etc.), the amount void space in the material (e.g., porosity, etc.), the formation material's ability to transmit fluids (e.g., 20 permeability, etc.), natural fracture properties of the formation (e.g., dip, direction, orientation, density, spacing, length, location, aperture, etc.), major faults in the region and/or formations in the region (e.g., location, size, orientation, etc.), and/or other characteristics. [01291 A probabilistic earth model for a subterranean region may be generated, for example, based at least in part on data from one or more locations and/or rock formations in the 25 subterranean region, data from an outcrop in the subterranean region, microseismic data from the subterranean region, seismic data from the subterranean region, pressure transient data from the subterranean region, or open hole logging of a well bore in the subterranean region. In some instances, a probabilistic earth model includes locations of major faults, which may be known with certainty based on seismic data. In some instances, a probabilistic earth model for a first 30 region may be generated based on open hole logging from adjacent wells, analogfields, and/or other regions and locations. In some implementations, a probabilistic earth model can include data extrapolated from a different location. For example, data from an analog field may be WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 43 extrapolated to another field to fit one or more data points from a well log. The probabilistic earth model may include additional and/or different information. [01301 At 634, parameters of one or more injection treatments are obtained. For example, the parameters can be obtained by reading the parameters from a memory, by receiving the 5 parameters from a remote device, and/or in a different manner. The injection treatment parameters may include, for example, an injection location, a flow rate, pressure, volume, fluid composition, slurry concentration, information on proppants, information on additives, and/or other data relating to one or more injection treatments. The injection treatment parameters may include, for example, injection locations, injection timings, and/or other information for multiple 10 simultaneous or sequential injection treatments. The injection treatment parameters may relate to a pad phase, a proppant phase, a fluid flush, and/or another aspect of one or more injection treatments. An injection treatment may involve injecting treatment fluid into the formation. For example, fluid can be injected at or below a fracture initiation pressure for the formation, above at or below a fracture closure pressure for the formation, and/or at another fluid pressure. 15 101311 At 638, the probabilistic earth model is used to populate one or more geometric models of a subterranean formation. In some cases, the geometric models can be obtained by reading the geometric models from a memory, by receiving the geometric models from a remote device, and/or in a different manner. A data object in memory may be used to represent the geometric model. The geometric model may be, or may be included in a subterranean formation model. 20 The geometric model may include a two-dimensional, three-dimensional or another type of geometric model that can be used for simulating complex fracture propagation in the subterranean formation. The geometric model includes multiple discrete elements that represent individual rock blocks of the subterranean formation. A geometric model can include information on boundaries of the rock blocks, which may include estimated boundaries based on 25 the estimated fracture locations. The size, shape, location, orientation, and other properties of the rock blocks, as represented by the geometric model, may be determined based on the probabilistic earth model (e.g., the fractures, discontinuities, and/or other characteristics of the subterranean formation). FIGS. 4A, 4B, and 4C show example geometric models. In some implementations, the geometric model may include an arbitrarily large or small number of 30 discrete elements, and the elements may have arbitrary shapes, sizes, and other properties. In some implementations, a geometric model may include rock blocks of uniform shapes and sizes. In some implementations, constraints may be imposed on the number, shape, size, and/or other WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 44 properties of the discrete elements. The constraints may be based on the probabilistic earth model and/or practical considerations such as, for example, memory size, computational efficiency, processor speed, desired accuracy, numerical precision tolerance, and/or others. 10132] In the context of probabilistic simulation of complex fracture propagation, each 5 geometric model may be used for one simulation or for multiple simulations. Each geometric model may be generated by sampling the probabilistic earth model. In some implementations, a geometric model may be generated, for example, by generating a natural fracture pattern model based on the probabilistic earth model and then using the natural fracture pattern model to define the boundaries of the geometric model elements. Natural fracture pattern models may be 10 generated as described with respect to operation 606 in FIG 6A and/or in a different manner. The probabilistic earth model may include probability distributions for characteristics of a subterranean formation, and a natural fracture pattern model may be generated by randomly sampling one or more of the probability distributions. [0133] In an example implementation, the probabilistic earth model includes information on an 15 areal extent of a rock formation (e.g., a 20 acre areal extent, a 500 acre areal extent, and/or other information on an areal extent of a rock formation), and the probabilistic earth model includes probabilistic information on fracture parameters of the rock formation, a shape of the rock formation, a thickness and/or changes in thickness of the rock formation, and/or other properties. By sampling the probabilistic earth model for a given input geometric model, 20 particular values for the natural fracture pattern, size, shape, and thickness of the rock formation are chosen, and the particular values are used to define an input geometric model. [0134] At 640, output geometric models are generated by simulating fracture propagation in each of the input geometric models populated at 638. The simulation can also be based on the injection treatment parameters obtained at 634 and/or other data. For example, the simulation 25 may involve simulating fluid pressure, fluid flow, proppant flow, and/or other physical phenomena in the subterranean formation during one or more injection treatments. The simulated injection treatments may include multiple sequential and/or simultaneous injection treatments. The fracture propagation simulation can be implemented using a variety of different techniques. For example, complex fracture propagation can be simulated using a DDA-based 30 technique, an NMM-based technique, and/or other techniques.. Complex fracture propagation simulation can emulate a variety of different subterranean events and properties. For example, simulations of complex fracture propagation can model forces that may be applied to the WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 45 subterranean formation by one or more injection treatments (e.g., based on the injection treatment parameters), forces that may be applied to the subterranean formation by fluid flow during production, forces that may be applied to the subterranean formation by fluid flow during drilling activities, forces that may be applied to the subterranean formation by natural geological 5 events, and/or other phenomena. In some examples, the discontinuum model is used simulate initiation and growth of a two fractures in two different directions during an injection treatment. For example, a first fracture may initiate and grow in a first direction from a well bore, and a second fracture may initiate and grow in a second direction from the well bore. The two fractures may initiate and grow in non-parallel planes. The directions of the fractures may be 10 influenced by primary and secondary fracture orientations in the formation. [01351 The simulations at 640 can predict the locations and properties of fractures that may form in the subterranean formation during a injection treatment. As such, the input geometric models can each represent an initial condition of the formation, and the output geometric models (as generated and/or modified by fracture propagation simulation) can each represent an 15 intermediate or final condition of the formation. The output geometric model may include complex fracture pattern models generated by a simulation. The complex fracture pattern models may include networks of fractures that can extend, for example, to a well bore, along multiple azimuths, in multiple different planes and directions, along discontinuities in rock, and in multiple regions of a reservoir. 20 [01361 In the example shown in FIG 6B, the fracture propagation is simulated by modeling, at 642, the forces acting on each rock block represented by the input geometric model. The forces may include, for example, forces of friction, shear forces, normal forces, external forces, forces generated by steady state or unsteady state fluid flow, forces generated by drilling activities, naturally generated forces, and/or others. In the example shown in FIG 6B, the forces modeled 25 at 642 can lead to translation (644a), rotation (644b), and/or fracture (644c) of any of the rock blocks of the geometric model. In some cases, the rock blocks may deform, crack, and/or otherwise be modified during the simulation. In some instances, artificial fractures may be initiated and/or propagated as a result of the modeled forces. In some instances, natural and/or artificial fractures may be dilated as a result of the modeled forces. 30 [01371 In some instances, the output geometric models generated by the simulation at 640 can be analyzed to generate output probability distributions, at 652. For example, properties of the simulated complex fracture patterns in each geometric model can be summarized in output WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 46 probability distributions. An output probability distribution may, for example, identify probabilities of complex fracture spacing, probabilities of complex fracture length, probabilities of complex fracture size and shape, and/or others. For example, the output geometric models from the multiple realizations may be analyzed to identify a most likely result of a given 5 injection treatment; the output geometric models from the multiple realizations may be analyzed to identify a least likely result of a given injection treatment; the output geometric models from the multiple realizations may be analyzed to identify a range of possible results of a given injection treatment, and in some cases, a probability associated with each possible result. Example results may include properties of the complex fracture network, properties of the 10 complex fractures, and/or other properties. In a particular example, analysis of the output geometric models can predict a probability of having a fracture that contacts a given amount of rock (e.g., a ten percent chance of having a fracture that contacts one hundred square feet of rock, a forty percent chance of having a fracture that contacts eighty square feet or rock, etc.). As another example, the connectivity and/or permeability of an output fracture pattern may be 15 analyzed. [01381 In some instances, the output geometric models generated by the simulation at 640 can be used to simulate (or otherwise calculate or estimate) production of resources from the subterranean formation at 654. For example, a flow of resident fluids through the simulated fracture pattern model may be simulated. In some cases, the production simulations may predict 20 a volume, location, flow rate, and/or other properties of resource production through the fracture network. 101391 At 656, injection treatment parameters can be modified and/or selected. The modification and/or selection of injection treatment parameters can be based on the analysis of the output models (at 652) and/or the simulated production (at 654). For example, injection 25 treatment parameters may be selected to improve and/or optimize production from the reservoir. [0140] At 658, a injection treatment is applied to the subterranean formation. For example, the injection treatment may be applied as described with respect to FIGS. 1B, ID, and/or in another manner. Properties and/or settings of the applied injection treatment can be set according to the injection treatment parameters selected and/or modified at 656. For example, a flow rate, flow 30 volume, flow pressure, slurry concentration, injection location, fluid composition, and/or other properties may be designated based at least in part on the results of simulations of complex fracture propagation.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 47 [01411 FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C show example techniques for generating probability distributions. In some implementations, one or more of the operations and/or example processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C may be used to generate an initial probability distribution representing one or more characteristics of a subterranean region. The characteristic represented by the 5 probability distribution may include, for example, natural fracture parameters, and/or other types of characteristics. In some implementations, one or more of the processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C, or a similar process, may be used to perform all or part of obtaining initial probability distributions at 602 in FIG 6A. In some implementations, one or more of the processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C, or a similar process, may be used to generate a 10 probability distribution included in the probabilistic earth model obtained at 632 in FIG 6B. 101421 The example processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C may include one or more iterated operations and/or one or more iterated subsets of operations. Some or all of the operations in the example processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C can be implemented by one or more computing devices. Any of the selections made and/or identified in the example 15 processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C may be made and/or identified by an automated process and/or based on user input. In some implementations, the example processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C may include additional, fewer, and/or different operations performed in the same or a different order. Moreover, one or more of the individual operations and/or subsets of the operations in the example processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C can be performed in 20 isolation and/or in different contexts to perform one or more of the disclosed techniques. Output data generated by the example processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C, including output generated by intermediate operations, can include stored, displayed, printed, communicated, transmitted, and/or processed information. 101431 FIG 7A is a flow chart of an example process 700 for generating a linear fit for 25 microseismic events. In some implementations, another type of fit may be generated for one or more of the microseismic events. For example, a non-linear curve fit may include a second order (or higher order) polynomial, a sinusoidal curve, a logarithmic curve, and/or other types of curves. The linear fits may represent estimated locations, shapes, lengths, and/or other properties of a fracture in a subterranean formation. In some implementations, some or all of 30 the operations of the process 700 may be. carried .out independent of user input. In some implementations, one or more of the operations of the process 700 utilize input from a user. For WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 48 example, some implementations of the process 700 may require a user to identify, designate, and/or modify linear trends in microseismic data. [0144] At 704, microseismic event data for a subterranean region are plotted in an elevation view. For example, pane 502 in FIG 5 shows an elevation view of example microseismic event 5 data. The microseismic event data may include data recorded during injection operations, production operations, and/or other operations. At 706, layers of the subterranean region are identified, and one or more layers are selected for evaluation. For example, the horizontal lines 508a and 508b in FIG. 5 indicate a layer of the subterranean region selected for evaluation. At 708, the microseismic events from the selected layer are plotted in a plan view. For example, in 10 FIG 5, pane 520 shows a plan view of the microseismic events in the selected layer. At 710, the microseismic events in the selected layer may be animated in the plan view plot. For example, two or more of the plotted points in pane 520 of FIG 5 may be animated based on the relative times at which the microseismic events occurred. At 712, linear trends may be identified, for example, based on the animation and/or other information. Microseismic events demonstrating 15 a linear trend are selected for regression. [01451 At 714, a linear regression may be performed on the selected microseismic events. The linear regression generates an equation for a straight line that fits the selected microseismic events. For example, linear regression may be performed by a least-squares technique and/or other types of regression techniques, In some implementations, the microseismic events may be 20 fitted to a non-linear curve using an appropriate regression analysis. For example, in some cases, the microseismic events may be fitted to a polynomial curve (e.g., second order, third order, etc.) and/or another type of curve. At 716, a line representing the output of the linear regression may be plotted through the selected microseismic events in the plan view. At 718, it may be determined whether all events (e.g., all events in the selected layer and/or all events in 25 another subset of the data) have been fitted. If one or more microseismic events have not been fitted, the process 700 may return to operation 710, and the operations may be iterated until all microseismic events in the selected layer have been fitted. In the example shown, if it is determined at 718 that all of the microseismic events have been fitted, probability distributions may be generated at 720. In some implementations, one or more of the example processes 30 shown in FIGS. 7B and 7C and/or another process may be used. to generate. the probability distributions at 720.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 49 [01461 FIG 7B is a flow chart of an example process 730 for generating probability distributions for fracture orientation and fracture trace length. A similar process may be used to generate probability distributions for one or more other fracture parameters (e.g., fracture aperture, fracture shape, fracture size, fracture dip angle, and/or others). In some 5 implementations, some or all of the operations of the process 730 may be carried out independent of user input. In some implementations, one or more of the operations of the process 730 may utilize input from a user. 101471 At 732, multiple fracture sets are identified. For example, each fracture set may include linear fits generated by the process 700 in FIG 7A, where each linear fit represents an estimated 10 fracture location. Typically, a fracture set contains fractures having orientation angles within about plus or minus thirty degrees (±30') of the mean orientation for the fracture set. Fracture sets can be identified using stereo-projection techniques. In some implementations, fracture sets can be identified graphically from a map of microseismic events and/or the linear fits. In some cases, there are a small number (e.g., 2, 3, etc.) of fracture sets, the fracture-dip angle is assumed 15 to be rT/2, and the linear fits are grouped into fracture sets. After grouping the linear fits into fracture sets, the mean orientation angle for each fracture set is calculated and compared to the orientation angle of each linear fit in the fracture set. If the orientation angle of a linear fit differs from the mean orientation angle for the fracture set by more than a limiting angle ( the linear fits may be regrouped, and the process can be repeated until the orientation angles of 20 each linear fit are within the limiting angle ( ,) of the mean orientation angle for the fracture set. In some implementations, the limiting angle (0rn,) is about thirty degrees (30'). Other values of the limiting angle may be used. [01481 Probability distributions for fracture properties (e.g., fracture orientation, fracture trace length, fracture density, fracture spacing, and/or other fracture properties) can be generated 25 based on each fracture set. At 734, one of the fracture sets is selected for analysis. Each linear fit in the selected fracture set may include an equation of an infinite straight line generated by a regression fit, such as the regression fit performed at 714 in FIG. 7A. In reality, fractures have finite lengths. At 736, the fitted lines of the selected fracture set are truncated. The truncation points may be arbitrary, since the fractures are not observed directly. The truncation points for a 30 linear fit may be selected based on the locations of the microseismic events that were used to generate the linear fit, based on the error bars of the microseismic events that-were used to generate the linear fit, based on user input, for example, through a graphical user interface, WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 50 based on classical field outcrop-mapping fracture trace-length measurements, based on other information, and/or a combination of these. Additionally or alternatively, the truncation points for a linear fit may be selected and/or modified by adding or subtracting an arbitrary length from the linear-trend ending events. The lengths of the truncated linear fits may be used as an 5 estimated fracture trace length for a fracture. [0149] At 738, the orientation angle for each linear fit in the selected fracture set is calculated. The orientation angle may be calculated from a reference orientation, for example, an East line or another reference angle. At 740, a probability distribution of orientation angles is generated for the fracture set based on a histogram of calculated orientations. For example, a histogram of 10 orientation angles may be generated, and the histogram may indicate, for multiple discrete ranges of orientation angle, the number of linear fits in the selected fracture set having an orientation angle in each discrete range. A probability distribution function can be selected, parameterized, and/or otherwise generated based on the histogram. For example, the histogram may correspond to a normal distribution, log normal distribution, negative exponential 15 distribution, and/or another type of distribution. At 742, orientation angle statistics for the selected fracture set are calculated. For example, the mean orientation angle, the standard deviation of the orientation angle, and/or other statistics may be calculated based on the histogram and/or based on other data. [0150] At 744, the line length for each truncated linear fit in the selected fracture set is 20 calculated. For example, the line length may be calculated based on the truncation points selected at 736, based on the error bars, and/or based on other information. At 746, a probability distribution of line lengths is generated for the fracture set based on a histogram of the calculated lengths. For example, a histogram of line lengths may be generated, and the histogram may indicate, for multiple discrete ranges of line length, the number of truncated 25 linear fits in the selected fracture set having line length in each discrete range. A probability distribution function can be selected, parameterized, and/or otherwise generated based on the histogram. For example, the histogram may correspond to a normal distribution, log normal distribution, negative exponential distribution, and/or another type of distribution. At 748, line length statistics for the selected fracture set are calculated. For example, the mean line length, 30 the standard deviation of the line length, and/or other statistics may be calculated.based on the histogram and/or based on other data.

WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 51 [0151] At 750, it is determined whether orientation angle statistics and line length statistics have been calculated for each fracture set. If statistics have not been calculated for a fracture set, the process 730 may return to operation 734, and the operations may be iterated until statistics have been calculated for all fracture sets. When statistics have been calculated for each fracture set, 5 the fracture density distribution may be calculated at 752. In some implementations, the example process shown in FIG 7C and/or another process may be used to generate the fracture density distribution at 752. [01521 FIG 7C is a flow chart of an example process 760 for generating a probability distribution for fracture density. A similar process may be used to generate probability 10 distributions for one or more other fracture parameters. In some implementations, some or all of the operations of the process 760 may be carried out independent of user input. In some implementations, one or more of the operations of the process 760 may utilize input from a user. [01531 In some implementations, the process 760 may be performed after and/or in connection with the process 700 of FIG 7A and/or the process 730 of FIG 7B. For example, the process 15 760 may initially obtain microseismic data, fracture cluster data, and/or other data pertaining to a subterranean region. Fracture cluster data may include one or more fracture sets, such as the fracture sets identified at 732. Fracture clusters can be located in a stimulated reservoir volume, and at 764, a volume of the stimulated reservoir is calculated. The reservoir volume may be calculated based on the spatial and/or planar extent of microseismic event data, and/or based on 20 other information. In some instances, reliable probability distributions describing fracture cluster properties cannot be generated based on microseismic events within a single stimulated reservoir volume, and analysis of fracture sets in multiple stimulated reservoir volumes may be required to generate reliable probability distributions for the fracture cluster properties. [01541 At 766, a fracture set is selected. At 768, a fracture density for the selected fracture set is 25 calculated. For example, the fracture density may be calculated as the number of fractures within the reservoir volume divided by the calculated reservoir volume. At 770, if a fracture density has not been calculated for each fracture set, the process 760 returns to 764, and the operations are iterated until a fracture density has been calculated based on all of the fracture sets. After a fracture density has been calculated based on all fracture sets, the process 760 30 proceeds to 772. [0155] At 772, it is determined whether there are fracture sets for any offset wells in the reservoir. If there are no offset well fracture sets, the example process 760 may proceed to 778, WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 52 where fracture pattern realizations are generated. For example, in some implementations, the fracture pattern realizations may be generated as in operation 606 of FIG. 6A, and/or fracture pattern realizations may be generated in a different manner. [0156] At 772, if there are fracture sets for one or more other wells in the reservoir, the example 5 process 760 may proceed to 774, where a probability distribution of fracture density is generated based on a histogram of fracture density for the reservoir. To calculate a fracture density distribution, the stimulated reservoir volumes corresponding to multiple mappings in a horizontal well, the stimulated reservoir volumes from offset wells in the region, and/or other volumes may be combined with the treatment stimulated reservoir volume to prepare a fracture 10 set density histogram. For example, a histogram of fracture densities may be generated based on fracture sets for multiple offset wells in the reservoir. The histogram may indicate, for multiple discrete ranges of fracture density, the number of fracture patterns having a fracture density in each discrete range. A probability distribution function can be selected, parameterized, and/or otherwise generated based on the histogram. For example, the histogram may correspond to a 15 normal distribution, log normal distribution, negative exponential distribution, and/or another type of distribution. At 776, fracture density statistics for the reservoir are calculated. For example, the mean fracture density, the standard deviation of the fracture density, and/or other statistics may be calculated based on the histogram and/or based on other data. [01571 Any of the operations and/or processes shown in FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C may be used in 20 connection with a two-dimensional analysis, a three-dimensional analysis, and/or other types of analysis. For example, one or more of the described processes may be adapted for three dimensional analysis by identifying planar trends in a three-dimensional map of microseismic events. In some implementations, identifying and/or correlating data for multiple planes may also provide data for generating a probability distribution for fracture dip angle. 25 [01581 Some embodiments of subject matter and operations described in this specification can be implemented in digital electronic circuitry, or in computer software, firmware, or hardware, including the structures disclosed in this specification and their structural equivalents, or in combinations of one or more of them. Some embodiments of subject matter described in this specification can be implemented as one or more computer programs, i.e., one or more modules 30 of computer program instructions, encoded on computer storage medium for execution by, or to control the operation of, data processing apparatus. A computer storage medium can be, or can be included in, a computer-readable storage device, a computer-readable storage substrate, a WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 53 random or serial access memory array or device, or a combination of one or more of them. Moreover, while a computer storage medium is not a propagated signal, a computer storage medium can be a source or destination of computer program instructions encoded in an artificially generated propagated signal. The computer storage medium can also be, or be 5 included in, one or more separate physical components or media (e.g., multiple CDs, disks, or other storage devices). [01591 The operations described in this specification can be implemented as operations performed by a data processing apparatus on data stored on one or more computer-readable storage devices or received from other sources. 10 [01601 The term "data processing apparatus" encompasses all kinds of apparatus, devices, and machines for processing data, including by way of example a programmable processor, a computer, a system on a chip, or multiple ones, or combinations, of the foregoing. The apparatus can include special purpose logic circuitry, e.g., an FPGA (field programmable gate array) or an ASIC (application specific integrated circuit). The apparatus can also include, in 15 addition to hardware, code that creates an execution environment for the computer program in question, e.g., code that constitutes processor firmware, a protocol stack, a database management system, an operating system, a cross-platform runtime environment, a virtual machine, or a combination of one or more of them. The apparatus and execution environment can realize various different computing model infrastructures, such as web services, distributed 20 computing and grid computing infrastructures. [0161] A computer program (also known as a program, software, software application, script, or code) can be written in any form of programming language, including compiled or interpreted languages, declarative or procedural languages. A computer program may, but need not, correspond to a file in a file system. A program can be stored in a portion of a file that holds 25 other programs or data (e.g., one or more scripts stored in a markup language document), in a single file dedicated to the program in question, or in multiple coordinated files (e.g., files that store one or more modules, sub programs, or portions of code). A computer program can be deployed to be executed on one computer or on multiple computers that are located at one site or distributed across multiple sites and interconnected by a communication network. 30 [01621 Some of the processes and logic flows described in this specification can be performed by one or more programmable processors executing one or more computer programs to perform actions by operating on input data and generating output. The processes and logic flows can WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 54 also be performed by, and apparatus can also be implemented as, special purpose logic circuitry, e.g., an FPGA (field programmable gate array) or an ASIC (application specific integrated circuit). [0163] Processors suitable for the execution of a computer program include, by way of example, 5 both general and special purpose microprocessors, and any one or more processors of any kind of digital computer. Generally, a processor will receive instructions and data from a read only memory or a random access memory or both. The essential elements of a computer are a processor for performing actions in accordance with instructions and one or more memory devices for storing instructions and data. A computer may also include, or be operatively 10 coupled to receive data from or transfer data to, or both, one or more mass storage devices for storing data, e.g., magnetic, magneto optical disks, or optical disks. However, a computer need not have such devices. Devices suitable for storing computer program instructions and data include all forms of non volatile memory, media and memory devices, including by way of example semiconductor memory devices (e.g., EPROM, EEPROM, flash memory devices, and 15 others), magnetic disks (e.g., internal hard disks, removable disks, and others), magneto optical disks , and CD ROM and DVD-ROM disks. The processor and the memory can be supplemented by, or incorporated in, special purpose logic circuitry. [01641 In some implementations, a processor may include a graphics processing unit (GPU) and/or a numerical processing unit (NPU). A GPU or NPU may be used to perform 20 computations in parallel. For example, using such devices may improve the speed and/or reduce the time required for simulating complex fracture propagation, for generating natural fracture pattern models, for predicting responses of rock blocks to forces, for refining probability distributions, for generating input and/or output subterranean formation models, and/or for other computing tasks and operations described herein. Some example GPUs include GPUs 25 distributed by NVIDIA, which can be operated under the CUDA instruction set architecture. Alternatively or additionally, other GPUs may be used, such as, for example, GPUs distributed by ATI Technologies, Inc (ATI). 101651 To provide for interaction with a user, embodiments of the subject matter described in this specification can be implemented on a computer having a display device (e.g., a CRT 30 (cathode ray tube) or LCD (liquid crystal display) monitor, or another type, of display device) for displaying information to the user and a keyboard and a pointing device (e.g., a mouse, a trackball, a tablet, a touch sensitive screen, or another type of pointing device) by which the user WO 2011/064543 PCT/GB2010/002176 55 can provide input to the computer. Other kinds of devices can be used to provide for interaction with a user as well; for example, feedback provided to the user can be any form of sensory feedback, e.g., visual feedback, auditory feedback, or tactile feedback; and input from the user can be received in any form, including acoustic, speech, or tactile input. In addition, a computer 5 can interact with a user by sending documents to and receiving documents from a device that is used by the user; for example, by sending web pages to a web browser on a user's client device in response to requests received from the web browser. [0166] A client and server are generally remote from each other and typically interact through a communication network. Examples of communication networks include a local area network 10 ("LAN") and a wide area network ("WAN"), an inter-network (e.g., the Internet), a network comprising a satellite link, and peer-to-peer networks (e.g., ad hoc peer-to-peer networks). The relationship of client and server arises by virtue of computer programs running on the respective computers and having a client-server relationship to each other. [01671 While this specification contains many specific implementation details, these should not 15 be construed as limitations on the scope of any inventions or of what may be claimed, but rather as descriptions of features specific to particular embodiments of particular inventions. Certain features that are described in this specification in the context of separate embodiments can also be implemented in combination in a single embodiment. Conversely, various features that are described in the context of a single embodiment can also be implemented in multiple 20 embodiments separately or in any suitable subcombination. Moreover, although features may be described above as acting in certain combinations and even initially claimed as such, one or more features from a claimed combination can in some cases be excised from the combination, and the claimed combination may be directed to a subcombination or variation of a subcombination. 25 [01681 Similarly, while operations are depicted in the drawings in a particular order, this should not be understood as requiring that such operations be performed in the particular order shown or in sequential order, or that all illustrated operations be performed, to achieve desirable results. In certain circumstances, multitasking and parallel processing may be advantageous. Moreover, the separation of various system components in the embodiments described above should not be 30 understood as requiring such separation in all embodiments, and it should be understood that the described program components and systems can generally be integrated together in a single software product or packaged into multiple software products.

56 [0169] In the present disclosure, "each" refers to each of multiple items or operations in a group, and may include a subset of the items or operations in the group and/or all of the items or operations in the group. In the present disclosure, the term "based on" indicates that an item or operation is based 5 at least in part on one or more other items or operations - and may be based exclusively, partially, primarily, secondarily, directly, or indirectly on the one or more other items or operations. [0170] Throughout this specification and the claims which follow, unless the 10 context requires otherwise, the word "comprise", and variations such as "comprises" and "comprising", will be understood to imply the inclusion of a stated integer or step or group of integers or steps but not the exclusion of any other integer or step or group of integers or steps. 15 {0171] The reference to any prior art in this specification is not, and should not be taken as, an acknowledgement or any form of suggestion that the prior art forms part of the common general knowledge. [0172] A number of embodiments of the invention have been described. 20 Nevertheless, it will be understood that various modifications may be made without departing from the scope of the invention. Accordingly, other embodiments are within the scope of the following claims. 2465907v1

Claims (20)

1. A non-transitory computer-readable medium encoded with instructions that, when executed, perform operations including: 5 generating a plurality of distinct fracture pattern models based on sampling an initial probability distribution of values for a fracture parameter, each distinct fracture pattern model including a distinct set of model fracture locations; comparing the set of model fracture locations in each fracture 10 pattern model to microseismic event locations for a subterranean region, the same microseismic event locations being compared against each distinct set of model fracture locations, wherein comparing the set of model fracture locations includes: generating a plurality of map images, each map image 15 including a representation of one of the plurality of fracture pattern models and a representation of the microseismic event locations; presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface; and at least one of: 20 receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event locations; or receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an 25 inaccurate representation of the microseismic event locations; and generating, from the initial probability distribution, a refined probability distribution for the fracture parameter based on the comparison between the model fracture locations and the microseismic event locations. 30 2465907v1 58
2. The computer-readable medium of claim 1, wherein sampling the initial distribution includes randomly selecting a plurality of sample values from the initial distribution, and generating the refined distribution includes selecting a subset of the sample values based on the comparing. 5
3. The computer-readable medium of claim 1 or claim 2, wherein the comparing includes determining that at least one of the fracture pattern models has a correlation with the microseismic event locations that is higher than a threshold correlation. 10
4. The computer-readable medium of claim 1 or claim 2, wherein the comparing includes determining that at least one of the fracture pattern models has a correlation with the microseismic event locations that is lower than a threshold correlation. 15
5. A computer-implemented method for simulating an injection treatment, the method including: receiving a plurality of distinct fracture models, each fracture model indicating a distinct model location for one or more subterranean 20 fractures, each of the fracture models being based on an initial probability distribution of values for a fracture parameter; and generating, by operation of data processing apparatus, a refined probability distribution of values for the fracture parameter based on comparing the distinct model location in each fracture model against a 25 common set of measured locations of microseismic events in a subterranean region, wherein the comparing includes: generating a plurality of map images, each map image including a representation of one of the plurality of fracture models and a representation of the measured locations of the microseismic events; 30 presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface; and 2465907v1 59 at least one of: receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture models as an accurate representation of the measured locations of the microseismic 5 events; or receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture models as an inaccurate representation of the measured locations of the microseismic events. 10
6. The method of claim 5, wherein a first volume of the subterranean region includes the measured locations, and the method further includes predicting a natural fracture pattern in a second volume of the subterranean region based on the refined distribution. 15
7. The method of claim 5 or claim 6, wherein the subterranean region includes a horizontal well bore, the first volume surrounds a first portion of the horizontal well bore, the second volume surrounds a second portion of the horizontal well bore. 20
8. The method of any one of claims 5 to 7, wherein the fracture parameter includes at least one of a fracture dip angle, a fracture density, a fracture direction, a fracture shape, a fracture aperture, a fracture persistence, a fracture length, or a fracture spacing. 25
9. The method of any one of claims 5 to 8, wherein the initial distribution includes a plurality of values for the fracture parameter and a probability for each of the plurality of values, and generating the refined distribution includes increasing or decreasing the probability for at least 30 one of the plurality of values. 2465907v1 60
10. The method of any one of claims 5 to 9, including: receiving a plurality of fracture pattern models each including information on model locations of subterranean fractures, each fracture pattern model based on an independent sampling of the initial 5 distribution of values for the fracture parameter, wherein the refined distribution is generated based on comparing each of the fracture pattern models and the measured locations of the microseismic events. 10
11. A system for performing an injection treatment, the system including: an injection treatment control subsystem adapted to control an injection treatment applied to a subterranean formation through a well bore defined in the subterranean formation, the injection treatment based 15 on a predicted probability distribution of values for a natural fracture parameter; and a computing subsystem adapted to: generate a plurality of distinct fracture pattern models by sampling an initial probability distribution of values for the natural fracture 20 parameter, each distinct fracture pattern model including a distinct set of model fracture locations; and generate the predicted probability distribution from the initial probability distribution based on comparing the set of model fracture locations in each of the fracture pattern models to microseismic event 25 locations for a subterranean region, the same microseismic event locations being compared against each distinct set of model fracture locations, wherein the comparing includes: generating a plurality of map images, each map image including a representation of one of the plurality of fracture pattern 30 models and a representation of the microseismic event locations; presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical 2465907v1 61 user interface; and at least one of: receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern 5 models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event locations; or receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an inaccurate representation of the microseismic event 10 locations.
12. The system of claim 11, the computing subsystem is further adapted to: simulate fracture propagation in the subterranean formation; and 15 determine at least one aspect of the injection treatment based on the simulation.
13. A method of treating a subterranean formation, the method including: 20 generating a plurality of distinct fracture pattern models based on a probability distribution of values for a fracture parameter, each distinct fracture pattern model including a distinct set of model fracture locations; generating, by operation of one or more computers, an updated probability distribution based on correlations between the fracture pattern 25 models and microseismic event locations for a subterranean formation, the correlations being identified by comparing the same set of microseismic event locations against each distinct set of fracture model locations, wherein generating the updated probability distribution includes: generating a plurality of map images, each map image 30 including a representation of one of the plurality of fracture pattern models and a representation of the microseismic event locations; 2465907v1 62 presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface; and at least one of: receiving user input through the graphical user 5 interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event locations; or receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern 10 models as an inaccurate representation of the microseismic event locations; designing an injection treatment based on the updated probability distribution; and using an injection treatment control subsystem to apply the 15 injection treatment to the subterranean formation through a well bore in the subterranean formation.
14. The method of claim 13, wherein applying the injection treatment includes applying a second injection treatment to the subterranean 20 formation at a second fluid injection location, the method further including detecting the microseismic event locations during a first injection treatment applied to the subterranean formation at a first fluid injection location. 25
15. The method of claim 13 or claim 14, further including applying the first fluid injection treatment to the subterranean formation at the first fluid injection location through the well bore.
16. The method of claim 14 or claim 15, wherein the well bore includes 30 a horizontal well bore including the first fluid injection location and the 2465907v1 63 second fluid injection location, and the second fluid injection location is horizontally offset from the first fluid injection location.
17. The method of any one of claims 13 to 16, wherein the 5 microseismic event locations represent microseismic events in a first portion of the subterranean formation, and the second fluid injection treatment is applied to a second portion of the subterranean formation.
18. The method of any one of claims 13 to 17, wherein applying the 10 injection treatment includes injecting treatment fluid into the subterranean formation at an injection pressure less than a fracture initiation pressure for the subterranean formation.
19. The method of any one of claims 13 to 17, wherein applying the 15 injection treatment includes injecting treatment fluid into the subterranean formation at an injection pressure greater than or equal to a fracture initiation pressure for the subterranean formation.
20. he computer-readable medium of any one of claims 1 to 4, 20 wherein the comparing determines a degree of correlation between each distinct fracture pattern model and the microseismic event locations, and the refined probability distribution is generated by modifying the initial probability distribution based on one or more fracture pattern models having an acceptable degree of correlation with the microseismic events. 25 2465907v1
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