JP5960094B2 - Life situation estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a living state estimation method, an estimation apparatus, and an estimation program. More specifically, the present invention relates to a technique suitable for use in confirming the safety of a resident in a single-person household of an elderly person or a disabled person or a household composed of only an elderly person and a disabled person.

  As a conventional system for confirming the safety of a resident, for example, a plurality of infrared sensors that are provided in various places including a predetermined room where a bed is arranged in a safety confirmation target person's house and are sensitive to infrared rays from the human body, In the life monitoring system comprising the presence determination means for determining the location of the human body based on the sensitivity signal of the infrared sensor, that is, the whereabouts of the target person, the living room monitoring system further includes a bed sensor sensitive to the human body only in the bed, When there is a response of the bed sensor, it is determined whether or not a human body is present on the bed based only on the bed sensor.

  In recent years, with the global interest in global warming and tight supply and demand of electric power, interest in “smart grids” that make efficient use of energy through optimal control of power systems using IT has increased worldwide. The introduction of electronic meters having a bidirectional communication function, so-called “smart meters”, which is an important element constituting the synthesizer, is being studied or implemented in various countries. In Japan as well, the spread of smart meters, which are watt-hour meters having communication functions, is being promoted mainly by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. This smart meter has functions of remote meter reading and remote opening and closing, and if it is a smart meter for electric power, it uses power consumption (specifically, integrated power amount forward direction measurement value) and reverse power flow value (specifically, (Measurement value of accumulated power reverse direction) and time information at 30-minute intervals, and if it is a smart meter for gas, it is required to provide gas usage and time information at 60-minute intervals as power usage information, respectively. (Non-Patent Document 1). The basic requirements for smart meters (Non-Patent Document 1) compiled in February 2011 after discussions at the Smart Meter System Study Group established by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry are described in the following explanation as “Basics of METI Basics”. Called “Requirements”. In addition, it is expected that technical verification will continue with regard to the smart meter for water supply with reference to the discussion at the study group.

JP 2003-317165 A

Smart Meter System Review Meeting: “Smart Meter System Review Meeting Report”, February 2011

  In the life monitoring system of Patent Document 1, it is necessary to provide a plurality of infrared sensors at various locations of the safety confirmation target person's house, resulting in high costs. In addition, providing an infrared sensor at each location of the safety confirmation subject's home and determining the resident's whereabouts based on the sensitivity signal of the infrared sensor means that the details of the living situation for the residents of the safety confirmation subject's home are There is a problem that it is not comfortable because it is always monitored by a third party and the lifestyle is known, and there is a possibility that it may give the resident discomfort.

  The introduction of smart meters is also expected to improve the quality of life through the creation of new services that utilize the energy usage information provided, and to stimulate the economy (green innovation) through the creation of related industries.

  Therefore, the present invention utilizes a social infrastructure (specifically, a smart meter), does not provide an additional function or device in the household, and provides a concrete living situation such as a place of resident in the household. An object of the present invention is to provide a living situation estimation method, estimation device, and estimation program capable of estimating a living situation in which, for example, the safety of a resident can be confirmed without the need for such information.

In order to achieve such an object, the life situation estimation method of the present invention includes a data reading unit that reads data, a total value calculation unit that calculates a total amount of energy usage, and a short-term fluctuation range calculation unit that calculates a short-term fluctuation range A living condition estimation apparatus having a long-term fluctuation range calculating unit that calculates a long-term fluctuation range, a threshold value determining unit that determines a long-term fluctuation range threshold value, and a determination unit that estimates a living situation of a resident a method, comprising: data reading section reads the data of the energy consumption of the whole household, which is measured by the smart meter from the storage device, the energy consumption total value within the most recent past predetermined time based on the data of the energy consumption a step of sum calculation unit calculates a plurality of values of the energy consumption total in long recent past within a shorter time than the most recent past predetermined time Variations in steps and, the value of the plurality of energy usage totals at the most recent past short long immediate past within a predetermined period of time than for calculating a short-term fluctuation range of energy usage total value representing the degree of variation is short variation width calculator A step in which the long-term fluctuation calculation unit calculates a long- term fluctuation range of the total energy usage value representing the degree of energy consumption, and a short-term fluctuation width of a plurality of total energy usage values within the last past long period that is longer than the most recent past predetermined period . A step in which the threshold value determination unit determines an X percentile value (X value is preset) in an ascending or descending order of values as a long-term fluctuation threshold, and a long-term fluctuation value and a long-term fluctuation of the total energy consumption value determining unit living conditions household residents by comparing the width threshold so that a step of estimating.

In addition, the life situation estimation apparatus of the present invention includes means for reading data on the amount of energy used in the entire household measured by the smart meter from the storage device, and energy within the most recent predetermined time based on the data on the amount of energy used. A means for calculating the total amount of usage, and a short-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy usage that represents the degree of variation in the value of the total amount of energy usage within the last short time that is longer than the most recent predetermined time. Means, a means for calculating a long-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy use representing the degree of variation in the value of the total amount of energy use within a predetermined past period longer than the shortest past past time, and a predetermined past period Contact long immediate past ascending sequence or descending sequence of values of short-term fluctuation widths of the plurality of energy consumption total value of the long term than The means of determining the X percentile value (the value of X is preset) as the long-term fluctuation threshold and the long-term fluctuation threshold of the total energy consumption and the long-term fluctuation threshold And a means for estimating the living situation.

Further, the life situation estimation program of the present invention is a means for reading data on energy consumption of the entire household measured by a smart meter from a storage device, and based on the energy usage data, the energy usage within the most recent predetermined time. Means for calculating the total amount of energy, means for calculating the short-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy usage representing the degree of variation in the value of the total amount of energy usage within the past past short time longer than the most recent predetermined time , A means for calculating a long-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy usage that represents the degree of variation in the value of the total amount of energy usage in the past predetermined period that is longer than the shortest past short period, the latest that is longer than the last past predetermined period In an ascending or descending array of short-term fluctuation values of the total value of energy usage over the past long period Means for determining the X percentile value (the value of X is preset) as the long-term fluctuation threshold, and the life of the resident of the household by comparing the long-term fluctuation value of the total energy consumption value with the long-term fluctuation threshold The computer is made to function as a means for estimating the situation.

  Smart meters are expected to be installed outdoors instead of conventional power meters and gas meters (and water meters), and measure the amount of electricity and gas used (and water usage) in the entire household. Then, it is provided as power usage information together with time information at predetermined time intervals (in the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry basic requirements, power is 30 minutes and gas is 60 minutes).

  Therefore, according to the estimation method, estimation device, and estimation program of these living conditions, the long-term fluctuation threshold is set for each household using the energy usage measured in the household. A threshold value reflecting the characteristics of energy use (in other words, life patterns) is set. Moreover, the threshold for each household is automatically set.

  And, according to the estimation method, estimation device and estimation program of these living situations, the measurement data obtained by the smart meter as social infrastructure is utilized, so the original special additional measuring device is provided. Therefore, it is estimated whether or not the resident is living habitually by judging whether or not the electric equipment and gas equipment (and water supply equipment) are used due to the indoor activity by the resident.

  According to these estimation methods, estimation devices, and estimation programs for living conditions, the measurement data obtained by smart meters that measure the amount of electricity and gas used (and the amount of water used) in the entire household should be used. Therefore, without using information on specific living conditions such as where the occupants are indoors, more specifically, specific (in other words, individual) electrical equipment and gas equipment (or Whether or not the resident is living well without judging the use of electrical equipment and gas equipment (and water equipment) associated with indoor activities by the resident without using the usage information Is estimated.

  According to these estimation methods, estimation devices, and estimation programs for living conditions, the living conditions of the resident can be confirmed at a location away from the household where the smart meter is installed, so that the resident's household is visited directly. It is possible to confirm whether or not the resident is living normally. In addition, since it is possible to check the status of multiple households on a single device, it is possible to check whether or not the residents of multiple households are living normally with little effort in normal operation. be able to.

  In addition, according to the estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program for the living situation, the smart meter can be effectively used.

  Moreover, the estimation method of the living situation of the present invention may be configured such that the time zone of the day is divided and the processing of each step is performed for each division of the time zone. The time zone of the day may be divided and the processing of each means may be performed for each time zone, and the life situation estimation program of the present invention is divided into the time zone of the day, You may make it function a computer so that a process may be performed for every division | segment of a time slot | zone. In these cases, the life situation is estimated after each value is calculated and determined for each division of the daily life time zone.

  According to the life situation estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the present invention, the threshold value reflecting the characteristics of energy use for each household (in other words, the life pattern) can be automatically set. There is no need to perform work that requires labor and experience of setting threshold values by visual inspection, etc., for example, even when many households are subject to estimation simultaneously, appropriate threshold values can be quickly set for individual households. It becomes possible to do.

  According to the estimation method, estimation device and estimation program of the living situation of the present invention, the energy usage pattern of the household changes according to the seasonal change, etc., so the threshold can be automatically set, The threshold value is constantly updated to reflect changes in the energy usage pattern, and the living situation of each household can always be estimated appropriately. Moreover, by using the latest measurement data when setting the threshold value, the threshold value can be made to reflect the most recent energy usage pattern of the household, so appropriate estimation is always made according to the current situation of the household. It becomes possible.

  According to the estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the living situation of the present invention, and without providing a special additional measuring device of its own, electrical equipment and gas facilities (also, It is possible to reduce the maintenance cost as a living situation estimation system, because it is possible to estimate the living situation of whether or not the resident is living habitually by judging the presence or absence of use of water supply equipment) It is possible to promote the spread of the living state estimation system by reducing the cost obstacle of the spread of the living state estimation system, and to improve the living safety of, for example, a single elderly household or a household only for the elderly.

  According to the estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the living situation of the present invention, and without using the information on the concrete living situation such as the resident's indoor location, more specifically, the identification provided in the household (In other words, without using information on the use of individual electrical and gas equipment (and water facilities), the use of electrical and gas equipment (and water facilities) associated with indoor activities by residents) Since it is possible to estimate the living situation of whether or not the resident is living normally by judging the presence or absence, discomfort such as the details of the living situation are constantly monitored by a third party and the lifestyle is known Can be prevented from being given to residents, and the spread of the living situation estimation system is promoted by reducing the obstacles to the privacy of the living situation estimation system. For example, only elderly households and the elderly It is possible to improve the life safety of such band.

  According to the estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the living situation of the present invention, it is possible to confirm the living situation of whether or not the resident is living normally without going directly to the resident's household. For example, it becomes possible to improve the living safety of a single household for the elderly and a household only for the elderly. In addition, since it is possible to check the living conditions of whether or not the residents of multiple households are living habitually with little effort in normal operation, it reduces the obstacles to the cost of disseminating the living situation estimation system. Thus, it is possible to promote the spread of the living situation estimation system, and to improve the living safety of, for example, a single elderly household or a household only for the elderly.

  In addition, according to the estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the living situation of the present invention, the smart meter can be effectively utilized, so that the quality of life is improved by creating a new service utilizing the provided energy usage information. In addition, it is possible to contribute to the revitalization of the economy by creating a related industry called a monitoring service.

  In addition, when the time zone of the day is divided and each process is performed for each time zone, each value is calculated and determined for each life time zone of the day and Since the situation can be estimated, it is possible to estimate the living situation by capturing changes in daily life patterns in more detail, and for example, through the estimation of the living situation, It becomes possible to watch closely.

It is a flowchart explaining an example of embodiment of the estimation method of the living condition of this invention. It is a figure which shows the whole structure of the apparatus put together by this invention. It is a functional block diagram of the life situation estimation apparatus realized by the program when the life situation estimation method of the embodiment is implemented using the life situation estimation program. It is a figure which shows an example of transition of the energy usage-amount total value regarding a certain household of Example 1, and the short-term fluctuation range of an energy usage-amount total value. It is a figure which shows an example of transition of the long-term fluctuation range and long-term fluctuation range threshold value of the energy usage total value, the energy usage total value, and the long-term fluctuation range threshold for a certain household in Example 1. It is a figure which shows an example of the determination of the long-term fluctuation range threshold value after arranging the value of the short-term fluctuation range of the energy usage total value regarding a certain household in Example 1 in ascending order. It is a figure which shows an example of transition of the long-term fluctuation range and long-term fluctuation range threshold value of the energy usage total value, the energy usage total value, and the long-term fluctuation range threshold for a certain household in Example 1.

  Hereinafter, the configuration of the present invention will be described in detail based on an example of an embodiment shown in the drawings.

  FIG. 1 to FIG. 3 show an example of an embodiment of the life situation estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the present invention. Note that various electrical devices such as a television, a refrigerator, and a lighting fixture are connected to the indoor line in the household 9. The household 9 is provided with gas equipment such as a gas stove and a gas water heater. Moreover, water supply facilities, such as a sink, a washbasin, and a bathroom, are provided in the household 9, for example.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the living state estimation method of the present embodiment includes a step (S1) in which the energy consumption amount of the entire household 9 is measured by the smart meter 1 and a predetermined past past based on the measurement result. A step (S2) in which the total amount of energy used within the time is calculated (S2), and a short-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy used representing the degree of variation in the values of the plurality of total amounts of energy used within the last short time. Step (S3), a step (S4) in which a long-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy usage representing the degree of variation in the value of the total amount of energy usage within the predetermined past period is calculated (S4), X percentile value in the ascending order or descending order value of the short-term fluctuation range value of the total amount of energy usage over a long period (the value of X is preset) ) Is determined as the long-term fluctuation threshold, and the long-term fluctuation value of the total energy usage and the long-term fluctuation threshold are compared to estimate the living situation of the resident of the household 9 Specifically, it is determined whether the living situation in which the resident of the household 9 continues indoor activities or the living situation that has been calm for the past predetermined period (S6). ).

  Further, the living state estimating apparatus of the present embodiment includes a means (11a) for reading data of energy usage of the entire household 9 measured by the smart meter 1 from a data server (16) as a storage device, and an energy usage. A means (11b) for calculating a total energy usage value in the latest past predetermined time based on the amount data, and an energy usage amount representing a degree of variation of a plurality of energy usage total values in the latest past short time Means (11c) for calculating the short-term fluctuation range of the total value, and means for calculating the long-term fluctuation range of the total energy usage value indicating the degree of variation in the value of the plurality of energy usage total values within the most recent predetermined period ( 11d) and the X percent in the ascending order or descending order of the value of the short-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy used within the most recent past long period The means (11e) for determining the tile value (the value of X is preset) as the long-term fluctuation threshold and the long-term fluctuation threshold of the total amount of energy used and the long-term fluctuation threshold are compared. Estimating the living situation of the resident, specifically, the living situation in which the resident of the household 9 continues indoor activities or the living situation that has calmed down over the past predetermined period Means (11f) for determining whether or not.

  Furthermore, the life situation estimation program according to the present embodiment includes a means (11a) for reading energy usage data of the entire household 9 measured by the smart meter 1 from a data server (16) as a storage device, and an energy usage amount. A means (11b) for calculating a total energy usage value within the last predetermined time based on the data of the energy, and a total energy usage value representing the degree of variation in the values of the plurality of energy usage total values within the latest past short time A means (11c) for calculating a short-term fluctuation range of the energy, a means (11d) for calculating a long-term fluctuation range of the energy use total value representing the degree of variation in the values of the plurality of energy use total values within the most recent predetermined period, X percent in the ascending order or descending order of the short-term fluctuation range of the total value of energy usage over the last long period Means (11e) for determining the tile value (the value of X is preset) as the long-term fluctuation threshold, and the residence of the household 9 by comparing the long-term fluctuation width of the total energy consumption value with the long-term fluctuation threshold Is the living situation where the activities of the resident of the household 9 continue indoors, or is the living situation calmed down over the past predetermined period? The computer is made to function as means (11f) for determining the above.

  In executing the method of estimating the living situation, first, the smart meter 1 measures the amount of energy used in the entire household 9 and transmits measurement data (S1).

  The amount of energy used in the present invention is the amount of energy and resources used in accordance with the activities of the resident in the household 9, and specifically, the amount of power, the amount of gas used, and the amount of water used can be considered.

  And the smart meter 1 in this invention should just be a smart meter which satisfy | fills METI basic requirements, for example. Specifically, in the case of a power smart meter, a function of measuring an integrated value of total electric power used by electric devices arranged in the household 9, that is, an integrated electric energy in the entire household 9, and the integrated electric energy And a communication function for transmitting the measured data to the outside at 30-minute intervals together with time information.

  Further, in the case of a gas smart meter, a function for measuring an integrated value of the total gas used by the gas equipment provided in the household 9, that is, an integrated gas usage in the entire household 9, and a measurement of the integrated gas usage. And a communication function for transmitting data to the outside at 60-minute intervals together with time information.

  In addition, although it is expected that technical verification will continue for water smart meters, although no specific requirements are mentioned in the “Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry basic requirements”, The integrated value of total water usage by the water supply system provided in the household 9, that is, the function of measuring the total water usage of the entire household 9, and the measurement data of the total water usage outside the time information along with the time information And a communication function for transmitting to the network.

  However, even if the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry basic requirements are changed, measure at least one of the accumulated power consumption, accumulated gas consumption, and accumulated water consumption (hereinafter referred to as accumulated energy consumption) for the entire household 9 If it is an apparatus provided with the function to perform, and the communication function which transmits the measurement data of the said integrated energy usage amount with the time information outside at a predetermined interval, it can be used as the smart meter 1 in the present invention. Note that “integration” in the above is the total amount of energy used in the past up to the time of measurement (that is, the cumulative integrated value).

  In addition, at a predetermined interval, a function for measuring the energy used by the entire household 9 (instantaneous value, not an integrated value: energy is specifically electric power, gas flow rate, water flow rate) and measurement data of the energy used. May be a device provided with a communication function for transmitting to the outside together with time information. In the present invention, a device having such a function for measuring instantaneous energy used and a communication function is also referred to as a smart meter 1 for the sake of convenience.

  That is, as the smart meter 1 in the present invention, the energy and resources (electric power, gas flow rate, water flow rate) in the entire household 9 are measured and continuously accumulated and transmitted to the outside as a cumulative accumulated value at a predetermined interval. Alternatively, the energy used and resources (electric power, gas flow rate, water flow rate) in the entire household 9 can be measured and transmitted to the outside at predetermined intervals as instantaneous values.

  In the following, the amount of energy and resources used by the resident's household 9 as measured by the smart meter 1, including those that are integrated values and those that are instantaneous values. This will be described as energy consumption.

  Then, the smart meter 1 measures the amount of energy used in the entire household 9 and transmits measurement data of the amount of energy used acquired by the measurement to the measured value data server 2 at a predetermined interval together with time information. The time information includes information on the measurement date.

  In the measured value data server 2, the time information and the energy usage measurement data transmitted from the smart meter 1 are classified into households (in other words, associated with household identification information), and the energy usage E at the time t. Accumulated as (t).

  In this embodiment, the measurement data of the energy usage measured by the smart meter 1 is temporarily stored in the measurement value data server 2 and supplied from the measurement value data server 2 to the data server 16.

  The measured value data server 2 receives and accumulates the energy usage amount measurement data transmitted from the smart meter 1. In addition, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry basic requirements list consumers (households), power companies, and gas companies as providers of smart meter power usage information. In this embodiment, the measurement data of the energy usage amount transmitted from the smart meter 1 is stored in the measurement value data server 2 as a storage device for storing measurement data under the control of the electric power company, gas company, and water company. The

  Note that the communication means for data transmission between the smart meter 1 and the measured value data server 2 is not limited to a specific mechanism, and the circumstances and measurement of the area and facility where the smart meter 1 is installed. An appropriate one is appropriately selected in consideration of the area where the value data server 2 is installed and the circumstances of the facility. Specifically, for example, use of an optical fiber, a metal line, PLC (abbreviation of Power Line Communications; power line communication), a mobile phone line, a wired telephone line, a dedicated wireless line, etc. can be considered. In addition, when the communication means for the data transmission between the smart meter 1 and the measured value data server 2 is specified as the requirements of the smart meter considered by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the communication means is used. .

  Next, the energy usage total value Em (t) is calculated using the measurement data of the energy usage measured by the process of S1 (S2).

  Here, the process after S2 in the living situation estimation method of the present invention can be executed by the living situation estimation apparatus of the present invention.

  And the process after S2 in the life situation estimation method of the present invention and the life situation estimation apparatus for executing these processes can also be realized by executing the life situation estimation program of the present invention on a computer. In the present specification, when the life situation estimation apparatus for executing the process after S2 is realized by executing the life situation estimation program on the computer, the process after S2 in the life situation estimation method is executed. Will be explained.

  FIG. 3 shows the overall configuration of a computer 10 (which is also a living situation estimation apparatus 10 in this embodiment) for executing the living situation estimation program 17. The computer 10 (living condition estimation device 10) includes a control unit 11, a storage unit 12, an input unit 13, a display unit 14, and a memory 15, and is connected to each other by a signal line such as a bus. Further, a data server 16 as a storage device is connected to the computer 10 via a signal line such as a bus, and signals such as data and control commands are transmitted and received (that is, input / output) through the signal line. .

  The control unit 11 performs calculation related to the control of the entire computer 10 and the estimation of the living situation by the living situation estimation program 17 stored in the storage unit 12, and is, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit).

  The storage unit 12 is a device that can store at least data and programs, and is, for example, a hard disk.

  The memory 15 serves as a memory space that is a work area when the control unit 11 executes various controls and operations, and is, for example, a RAM (abbreviation of Random Access Memory).

  The input unit 13 is an interface for giving at least an operator's command to the control unit 11, and is, for example, a keyboard.

  The display unit 14 performs drawing / display of characters, graphics, and the like under the control of the control unit 11 and is, for example, a display.

  In the present embodiment, the measurement data of the energy usage measured in the process of S1 and stored in the measurement value data server 2 is input from the measurement value data server 2 to the data server 16, and the energy usage database. 18 is stored (saved) in the data server 16.

  Specifically, the combination data of the value of energy usage E (t) measured and transmitted by the smart meter 1 and the time t is associated with the identification information of the household 9 where the data is measured, and the energy It is recorded in the usage amount database 18.

  Note that the communication means for data transmission between the measurement value data server 2 and the data server 16 is not limited to a specific mechanism, and considers the area in which both servers are installed and the circumstances of the facility. Thus, an appropriate one is appropriately selected. Specifically, for example, use of an optical fiber, a metal line, PLC (abbreviation of Power Line Communications; power line communication), a mobile phone line, a wired telephone line, a dedicated wireless line, etc. can be considered. In addition, if we correspond to the configuration of “acquisition route of usage information of customers' electricity” in the “Smart Meter System Study Group Report” (February 2011), the communication network of the power company and the Web Measurement data is obtained from the measurement value data server 2 and stored in the data server 16 via the A route via the A or the C route via a third party (private company, etc.) other than the electric power company. Can be considered.

  In addition, at the end of the processing of S6 described later, the past total energy usage value Em (t), the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage value, the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy usage value, A calculated value data file to be recorded as the value of the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is stored (saved) in the storage unit 12, the data server 16, or another appropriate storage device / storage medium.

  Then, the control unit 11 of the computer 10 (which is also the living situation estimation device 10 in this embodiment) executes the living situation estimation program 17 so that the household measured by the smart meter 1 in the process of S1. 9. The data reading unit 11a that performs processing for reading the energy usage data of the entire 9 from the data server 16 as a storage device, and the energy usage total value in the latest past predetermined time is calculated based on the energy usage data. A total value calculation unit 11b that performs processing, and a short-term fluctuation calculation that performs processing for calculating a short-term fluctuation range of the total energy usage value that represents the degree of variation in the values of the plurality of energy usage total values within the most recent past short time Part 11c and the variation in the value of a plurality of energy usage total values within the last predetermined period A long-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11d that performs a process of calculating a long-term fluctuation range of the energy usage total value that represents, and an ascending or descending arrangement of short-term fluctuation width values of the plurality of energy usage total values in the latest past long-term The threshold value determination unit 11e that performs processing for determining the X percentile value (the value of X is set in advance) as a long-term fluctuation range threshold value is compared with the long-term fluctuation range value of the total energy usage value and the long-term fluctuation range threshold value. And a determination unit 11f that performs a process of determining whether the resident of the household 9 is in a living situation where the indoor activity is continuing or a living situation that has been calm for the past predetermined period. Composed.

  As specific processing by executing the living situation estimation program 17, first, the energy reading is measured by the data reading unit 11 a configured in the control unit 11 of the computer 10 (living situation estimation device 10). Data is read (S2-1). In the following description, the process is described for one household 9. However, when there are a plurality of households to be processed, the same process is repeated for each household.

  Specifically, measurement data (specifically, measurement data of energy usage recorded in the energy usage database 18 measured in the processing of S1 and stored (saved) in the data server 16 by the data reading unit 11a. , The measurement data of the energy usage in the range of the past predetermined time m [minutes] from the time of calculation is read from the data server 16 from the combination data of the value of the energy usage E (t) and the time t).

  Then, the read data for measuring the amount of energy used is stored in the memory 15 by the data reading unit 11a.

  Subsequently, the total value calculation unit 11b of the control unit 11 calculates the total energy use amount Em (t) within the most recent past predetermined time based on the energy use amount data (S2-2).

  Specifically, the total value calculation unit 11b reads from the memory 15 the energy usage amount E (t) in the range of the latest predetermined time m [minutes] stored in the memory 15 in the process of S2-1. Then, an energy usage total value Em (t) that is the sum of the energy usage amounts E (t) in the range of the latest past predetermined time m [minutes] is calculated.

  Specifically, when the energy usage amount E (t) is a cumulative integrated value, the energy usage amount total value Em (t) is calculated by Em (t) = E (t) −E (t−m). Is done. On the other hand, when the energy usage E (t) is an instantaneous value, the energy usage total Em (t) is the sum of the values of the energy usage E (t) from the time [t−m] to the time t. Calculated as a value. The specific method of calculating the total energy usage value Em (t) depends on the content of the measurement by the smart meter 1 and the content of the transmitted data. It is adjusted appropriately according to the definition of E (t).

  In addition, at the time t of the energy usage total value Em (t), the value of the last time t (in other words, the latest time t from the calculation time point) in the range of the past predetermined time m [minutes] from the calculation time point. Is assigned. Hereinafter, the time allocated to the energy usage total value Em (t) is referred to as a calculation time t.

  Here, the value of m [minute], which is the time as the range of the energy usage E (t) used for calculating the total energy usage Em (t), is not limited to a specific value. And can be adjusted as appropriate. In addition, according to examination of this inventor, it is preferable that it is about 15-120 [min], and it is much more preferable that it is about 30-60 [min].

  Then, the total value calculation unit 11b stores the calculated value of the total energy use amount Em (t) in the memory 15 as combination data with the calculation time t in association with the household identification information.

  Here, the measurement of the energy consumption of the household 9 by the smart meter 1 and the transmission of the measurement data to the outside are automatically performed as a function of the smart meter 1. On the other hand, the processing from S2 to S6 is repeatedly performed every predetermined past time m [minute] in which the energy usage total value Em (t) is calculated.

  Next, the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage value is calculated by the short-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11c of the control unit 11 based on the value of the total energy usage value Em (t) within the latest past short time. (S3).

  First, the short-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11c reads the value of the energy usage total value Em (t) in the range from the time of calculation to the latest past short time s [minutes]. Specifically, the energy usage total value Em (t) at the calculation time t stored in the memory 15 in the process of S2-2 is read from the memory 15. In addition, from the data of the energy usage total value recorded in the calculation value data file in the process of S6 (specifically, the combined data of the value of the energy usage total value Em (t) and the calculation time t). The value of the total energy usage Em (t) in the range from time [ts−m] to time [t−m] is read from the calculated value data file.

  Then, the short-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11c uses the values of the plurality of Em (t) in the s-minute as the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage Em (t) in the latest past short time s [min]. An index representing the degree of variation of the is calculated. The index representing the degree of variation is not limited to a specific index, and various indices used in statistical analysis or the like can be used. Specifically, for example, the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of Em (t), the variance of Em (t), the standard deviation of Em (t), and the like can be used. Note that the time t of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy use amount is made the same as the calculation time t determined in the process of S2-2.

  Here, the value of s [minute], which is the time as the range of the total energy usage value Em (t) used for calculating the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage value, is a specific value. It is not limited to this, and can be adjusted as appropriate. In addition, according to examination of this inventor, it is preferable that it is about 120-360 [minutes]. The time s [minutes] related to the calculation of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage amount is set to a value larger than the time m [minutes] related to the calculation of the total energy usage value Em (t). .

  Then, the value of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy consumption calculated by the short-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11c is associated with the household identification information in the memory 15 as combination data with the calculation time t. It is memorized.

  Next, the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy usage amount is calculated by the long-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11d of the control unit 11 based on the value of the total energy usage amount Em (t) within the most recent predetermined period. (S4).

First, the long-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11d reads the value of the total energy usage Em (t) in the range of the predetermined past period p [hour or day] from the time of calculation. Specifically, the energy usage total value Em (t) at the calculation time t stored in the memory 15 in the process of S2-2 is read from the memory 15. In addition, from the data of the energy usage total value recorded in the calculation value data file in the process of S6 (specifically, the combined data of the value of the energy usage total value Em (t) and the calculation time t). , The value of the total energy use amount Em (t) in the range from time [tp−m] to time [t−m] is read from the calculated value data file.
Then, the long-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11d uses a plurality of long-term fluctuation ranges Dp (t) of the energy usage total value Em (t) in the most recent predetermined period p [hours, days] as the long-term fluctuation ranges Dp (t). An index representing the degree of variation in the value of Em (t) is calculated. As an index representing the degree of variation in the process of S4, the same index as that adopted as the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) in the process of S3 is calculated (for example, Ds (t) is a standard deviation). Then, Dp (t) is also a standard deviation). Note that the time t of the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy usage value is the same as the calculation time t determined in the process of S2-2.

  Here, the value of p [hour, day], which is a period as a range of the total energy usage Em (t) used for calculating the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy usage, is specified. It is not limited to this value and can be adjusted as appropriate. In addition, according to examination of this inventor, it is preferable that it is about 1-5 [day] (in other words, 24-120 [hour]) grade. It should be noted that the period p [hour, day] relating to the calculation of the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy usage value is longer than the time s [minute] relating to the calculation of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage value. It is set to be a long period.

  Then, the value of the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the calculated total amount of energy usage calculated by the long-term fluctuation range calculation unit 11d is associated with the household identification information in the memory 15 as combination data with the calculation time t. It is memorized.

  Next, based on the value of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage value in the latest past long-term, the threshold value determination unit 11e of the control unit 11 determines the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t of the total energy usage value. The value of the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) for determining whether or not the value of) is a value for which it is determined that the resident is living properly is determined (S5).

  First, the threshold value determination unit 11e reads the value of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy use amount in the range from the calculation time point to the last past long-term d [days] (including the current day of the calculation time point). Specifically, the value of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage amount at the calculation time t stored in the memory 15 in the process of S3 is read from the memory 15. Further, the short-term fluctuation data of the total energy usage value recorded in the calculation value data file in the process of S6 (specifically, the value of the short-term fluctuation width Ds (t) of the total energy usage value and the calculation time t Value) of the total short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total amount of energy used in the range from the time of calculation to the last past long-term d [days] is read from the calculated value data file.

  Then, the threshold value determining unit 11e rearranges the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the plurality of energy usage total values in the range of the latest past long-term d [days] in ascending order, and the X percentile value in the ascending order is set. The extracted value is determined as the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t). Note that the time t of the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is the same as the calculation time t determined in the process of S2-2.

  The long-term fluctuation width threshold value Dp_th (t) is, that is, “the short-term fluctuation width Ds of the total energy usage value in which the number of short-term fluctuation widths Ds (t) of the total energy usage value below that value is arranged in ascending order. The value is “X% relative to the total number of (t)”, and the total number of short-term fluctuation ranges Ds (t) is n, the value of the “n × X / 100” th short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) is is there. If the value of “n × X / 100” is not an integer, the decimal part of the value of “n × X / 100” is rounded up, rounded down, or rounded off.

  Here, the value of d [days], which is a period as a range of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy use value used for determining the long-term fluctuation range threshold Dp_th (t), is a specific value. It is not limited and can be adjusted appropriately. In addition, according to examination of this inventor, it is preferable that it is about 5-30 [day]. It should be noted that the period d [day] relating to the determination of the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is longer than the period p [hour, day] relating to the calculation of the long-term fluctuation width Dp (t) of the total amount of energy used. Set to

  Further, the value of X [%] defining the percentile value extracted as the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is not limited to a specific value and can be adjusted as appropriate. In addition, according to examination of this inventor, it is preferable that it is about 50-90 [%].

  Here, the latest past predetermined time m = 30 [minutes] that is the range of the energy usage E (t) used to calculate the energy usage total value Em (t), the short-term fluctuation range of the energy usage total value Used to determine the shortest past short time s = 180 [minutes], the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t), which is in the range of the total energy usage Em (t) used to calculate Ds (t). Assuming that the last past long-term d = 28 [days], which is the range of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy use value, the total energy use amount used to determine the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) The number of short-term fluctuations Ds (t) of the value is (24 hours × 60 minutes / 30 minutes) × 28 days = 1344 [pieces], and the total number of energy use values Em (t) is 1344 + 5 = 1349 [pieces]. ].

  Therefore, if X = 90 [%] that defines the percentile value, 1344 × 90 / 100≈1210 (the fractional part is rounded off). Therefore, among the 1344 short-term fluctuation ranges Ds (t) of the total energy usage values sorted in ascending order, the value of the 1210th short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) from the smallest is the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t ). Note that the time t of the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is the same as the calculation time t determined in the process of S2-2.

  Then, the threshold value determination unit 11e associates the value of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy usage extracted as the X percentile value with the household identification information as the long-term fluctuation range threshold value Dp_th (t). And stored in the memory 15 as combination data with the calculation time t.

  Next, the living state of the resident of the household 9 is estimated by the determination unit 11f of the control unit 11 (S6).

  Specifically, the determination unit 11f uses the long-term fluctuation data of the total energy usage value stored in the memory 15 in the process of S4 (specifically, the long-term fluctuation width Dp (t) of the total energy usage value). Value of the total amount of energy used at the calculation time t) is read from the memory 15 and stored in the memory 15 in the process of S5. Of the long-term fluctuation range threshold data (specifically, the combination data of the long-term fluctuation range threshold value Dp_th (t) and the calculation time t), the value of the long-term fluctuation range threshold value Dp_th (t) at the calculation time t is stored in the memory 15. Is read from.

  Then, the determination unit 11f compares the value of the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy usage value at the calculation time t with the value of the long-term fluctuation range threshold Dp_th (t).

  When the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy use amount is smaller than the long-term fluctuation range threshold Dp_th (t) at the calculation time t, the energy usage in the most recent predetermined period p (for example, 1 to 5 days). That is, the amount of fluctuation of the amount is small compared to the amount of fluctuation of the energy usage amount in the latest past long-term d (for example, 5 to 30 days). Therefore, if Dp (t) <Dp_th (t) (or Dp (t) ≦ Dp_th (t)), the indoor activity of the occupant of household 9 has been calm for the most recent predetermined period p. It is estimated that this is a living situation, and it is determined that there is a possibility that the resident is bedridden or falls indoors.

  On the other hand, when the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy use value is equal to or larger than the long-term fluctuation range threshold Dp_th (t), the fluctuation of the energy use amount in the most recent predetermined period p (for example, 1 to 5 days). That is, the magnitude is equal to or greater than the magnitude of the fluctuation of the energy usage amount in the latest past long-term d (for example, 5 to 30 days). Therefore, when Dp (t) ≧ Dp_th (t) (or Dp (t)> Dp_th (t)), it is assumed that the living situation where the indoor activity of the resident of the household 9 continues. Estimated and, by extension, it is determined that the resident is not alive and likely in an emergency.

  Therefore, for example, a single household of elderly people or disabled persons, or a household composed only of elderly persons and disabled persons is extracted as the household 9, and the living state estimating apparatus 10 further includes a notification unit 11g in the control unit 11. Thus, the present invention can be applied as a mechanism for confirming the safety of residents in the household 9.

  Specifically, when Dp (t) <Dp_th (t) (or Dp (t) ≦ Dp_th (t)), the notification unit 11g uses the family of the resident of the household 9, the doctor in charge, etc. The warning information is transmitted to the external device 5 and the family or doctor in charge who has received the warning information makes a telephone call to the resident to confirm the safety, or visits the household 9 to confirm the safety. To go. This makes it possible to prevent the situation from worsening without anybody knowing when an emergency situation occurs in an elderly single-person household or an elderly-only household. Only the elderly and the elderly can ensure the safety of their households.

  As can be seen from the above, p [time, which is a period as a range of the total energy use value Em (t) used for calculating the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy use value. The value of [day] corresponds to the elapsed time until it is determined that there is a possibility of an emergency in the household 9.

  In addition, when the process at the calculation time t is terminated, the control unit 11 calculates the energy use amount total value Em (t) and the short-term fluctuation of the energy use amount total value that are calculated and stored in the memory 15 at the calculation time t. Each value of the width Ds (t), the long-term fluctuation width Dp (t) of the total energy consumption value, and the long-term fluctuation width threshold value Dp_th (t) is read from the memory 15 and calculated in association with the household identification information. As combination data with time t, it is recorded in a calculated value data file stored (saved) in the storage unit 12 or the data server 16 or other appropriate storage device / storage medium.

  According to the living situation estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the present invention configured as described above, the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) using the energy usage E (t) measured in the household 9 is used. Is set for each household 9, the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) reflecting the characteristics of energy use for each household 9 (in other words, lifestyle patterns) can be automatically set. It is not necessary to perform work that requires labor and experience of setting the threshold value by visual observation of the measurement data, for example, even when multiple households are subject to estimation simultaneously, an appropriate threshold value for each household Can be set quickly.

  According to the living state estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the present invention, the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is automatically set when the energy usage pattern of the household 9 changes according to seasonal changes. Therefore, the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is constantly updated to reflect the change in the energy usage pattern, and the living situation of each household 9 can always be estimated appropriately. In addition, when the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is set, the latest measurement data is used to set the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) to a value reflecting the latest energy usage pattern of the household 9. Therefore, it is possible to always make an appropriate estimation according to the current situation of the household 9.

  According to the life situation estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the present invention, the measurement data obtained by the smart meter 1 as social infrastructure is utilized, so that the original special additional measurement device Without using a living room, it is estimated whether or not the resident is living normally by judging the use of electrical equipment and gas facilities (and water facilities) associated with indoor activities by the resident. be able to.

  According to the living situation estimation method, estimation apparatus, and estimation program of the present invention, the living situation of the resident can be confirmed at a place away from the household 9 where the smart meter 1 is installed. You can check the living situation of whether or not the resident is living steadily without going to 9 directly. For example, it is possible to improve the living safety of single elderly households or households only for the elderly. become. Moreover, since the situation of a plurality of households can be collected and checked in a single living situation estimation device 10, whether the residents of the plurality of households live in a healthy manner with little effort in normal operation. The living situation estimation system can be confirmed, and the disability of the living situation estimation system is reduced to promote the spread of the living situation estimation system. It is possible to improve the performance.

  Although the above embodiment is an example of a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the embodiment of the present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, and various modifications can be made without departing from the gist of the present invention. It is. For example, in the above-described embodiment, when the value of the long-term fluctuation range threshold value Dp_th (t) is determined in the process of S5, the short-term fluctuation range values Ds (t) of the plurality of energy usage total values are rearranged in ascending order. In addition, the X percentile value is extracted, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the X percentile value is obtained by rearranging the values of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the plurality of energy usage total values in descending order. May be extracted. In this case, the value of X [%] defining the percentile value extracted as the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is preferably about 10 to 50 [%].

  In the above-described embodiment, each of the data server 16 and the life situation estimation device 10 is provided as an independent device, and the energy is transferred from the measurement value data server 2 to the life situation estimation device 10 via the data server 16. The measurement data of the usage amount is input, but the measurement data is not limited to this, and the measurement data is directly input from the measurement value data server 2 to the living state estimation device 10 (in other words, the data server 16 and the living state). The storage unit 12 of the living situation estimation device 10 is used as a storage device that accumulates measurement data transmitted from the smart meter 1). May be. Furthermore, the measurement data transmitted from the smart meter 1 may be routed through any route / device as long as it is input to the living state estimation device 10.

In the above-described embodiment, the energy usage total value Em (t), the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) and the long-term fluctuation range Dp ( t) is calculated and the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) is determined so that the living situation of the resident of the household 9 is estimated. However, the present invention is not limited to this. Each value may be calculated and determined every time to estimate the living situation. Specifically, for example, the time zone of the day may be divided into the following four time zones, and each of the above processes may be performed for each of these time zones.
1st time zone T1: 3 am-9am 2nd time zone T2: 9 am-3pm 3rd time zone T3: 3 pm-9pm 4th time zone T4: 9 pm-next day 3:00 am

  That is, for each of the time periods T1, T2, T3, T4, the short-term fluctuation range Ds_T1 (t), Ds_T2 (t), Ds_T3 (t), Ds_T4 ( t) is calculated (S3), and the long-term fluctuation ranges Dp_T1 (t), Dp_T2 (t), Dp_T3 (t), and Dp_T4 (t) of the total amount of energy used in the past predetermined period p [hour, day] are calculated. Calculated (S4).

  In addition, the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t), which is a determination index for the long-term fluctuation width Dp (t) of the total energy consumption value, is the latest past length for each of the time zones T1, T2, T3, and T4. Appropriate percentile values in ascending / descending order for each of the short-term fluctuation ranges Ds_T1 (t), Ds_T2 (t), Ds_T3 (t), and Ds_T4 (t) of the total amount of energy usage within the period d [days] The range is determined (S5). Specifically, for each of the time zones T1, T2, T3, and T4, the long-term fluctuation threshold range Dp_th_T1l (t) to Dp_th_T1h (t) as a range of combinations of the lower percentile value and the upper percentile value in the ascending / descending order arrangement. , Dp_th_T2l (t) to Dp_th_T2h (t), Dp_th_T3l (t) to Dp_th_T3h (t), and Dp_th_T4l (t) to Dp_th_T4h (t) are determined. The combination of the lower limit and upper limit percentage values defining the percentile values extracted as the long-term fluctuation threshold range Dp_th_T1l (t) to Dp_th_T1h (t), etc. is not limited to a specific value combination, Specifically, for example, a combination of 10% and 90% may be considered. That is, for example, the 10th percentile value in the ascending order of the short-term fluctuation range Ds_T1 (t) of the total energy usage value is extracted as the lower limit value Dp_th_T1l (t) of the long-term fluctuation threshold range and the 90th percentile value is the long-term fluctuation threshold It is extracted as the upper limit value Dp_th_T1h (t) of the range.

For each of the time periods T1, T2, T3, and T4, the long-term fluctuation range Dp_T1 (t), Dp_T2 (t), Dp_T3 (t), and Dp_T4 (t) and the long-term fluctuation threshold value Range Dp_th_T1l (t) to Dp_th_T1h (t), Dp_th_T2l (t) to Dp_th_T2h (t), Dp_th_T3l (t) to Dp_th_T3h (t), Dp_th_T4l (t) to Dp_th_T4h (t) If the value of t) is within the long-term fluctuation range threshold range Dp_th_T1l (t) to Dp_th_T1h (t) of the corresponding time zone, it means that the life pattern of the resident of the household 9 has not changed. If the situation is estimated and the long-term fluctuation range Dp_T1 (t) etc. is not within the long-term fluctuation range threshold range Dp_th_T1l (t) to Dp_th_T1h (t) etc. of the corresponding time zone, the life of the resident of the household 9 The living situation is estimated in the sense that the pattern has changed (S6).

  In this way, changes in daily life patterns can be captured in more detail by calculating and determining each value for each daily time zone and estimating life conditions. Thus, it is possible to estimate the living situation, and for example, it becomes possible to finely monitor, for example, the household through the estimation of the living situation.

  An embodiment performed for verifying the determination accuracy of the method for estimating a living situation according to the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

  In this example, total load current data for every minute for a total of 3,844 days obtained in 11 households was used. In addition, after calculating the average total load current for 30 minutes from the total load current per minute and assuming that the voltage is 100 V and the power factor is 1 (which is considered to be sufficiently acceptable), the average total load current for 30 minutes is 50. In this embodiment, the average total load current for 30 minutes is used as it is as the total energy consumption Em (t) without being multiplied by 50 (S1 and Corresponds to the process of S2).

  In this measurement data, there were 18 cases in which the resident was absent for 48 hours or more (hereinafter referred to as absent cases) in a separate interview survey, and for another 48 hours or more. As a result, it was known in advance that there were no special circumstances or circumstances that caused the residents' indoor activities to calm down.

  It is important from the viewpoint of ensuring reliability when the present invention is applied, for example, as a mechanism for confirming the safety of a resident of a household, and it is possible to reliably detect 18 cases that are absent. It is important from the viewpoint of efficiency that there is little estimation that there is no time (although on the safe side).

  Therefore, in this embodiment, when it is estimated that the living situation of the resident of the household is calm for 48 hours, the warning is issued. The estimation accuracy of the estimation method was evaluated.

  In the present embodiment, the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of Em (t) is used as an index indicating the degree of variation in the value of the total energy use value Em (t) in the range from the time of calculation to the shortest past time. Adopted. Specifically, the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of the plurality of energy usage total values Em (t) in the past past short time s = 360 minutes from the time of calculation was calculated (S3). The result shown in FIG. 4 was obtained as an example of the short-term fluctuation range Ds (t) of the total energy consumption value for a certain household 9.

  The difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of Em (t) is also used as an index indicating the degree of variation in the value of the total energy usage value Em (t) in the range from the calculation time point to the most recent predetermined period. The difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of the plurality of energy usage total values Em (t) in the past predetermined period p = 48 hours immediately after the calculation time is calculated (S4). The result shown in FIG. 5 was obtained as an example of the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy consumption value for a certain household 9. FIG. 5 also illustrates the transition of the long-term fluctuation range threshold Dp_th (t).

  Next, the values of the short-term fluctuation ranges Ds (t) of the plurality of total energy usage values in the past long-term d days from the calculation time are rearranged in ascending order, and the X percentile values in this ascending order are extracted ( S5). FIG. 6 shows the result when d = 28 days and X = 90% as an example of determination of the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t) for a certain household 9.

  Next, the value of the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total amount of energy used at the calculation time t was compared with the value of the long-term fluctuation range threshold Dp_th (t) (S6). As an example of the processing result, as shown in FIG. 7, in a certain household 9, the long-term fluctuation range Dp (t) of the total energy consumption value on July 11 is the long-term fluctuation threshold Dp_th (t). The result was estimated to be a living situation in which the indoor activity of the resident of the household 9 has calmed down over the last 48 hours.

  As a result of the application of the living situation estimation method of the present invention, all 18 absent cases were successfully detected as living situations in which the resident's indoor activities have been calmed over the last 48 hours. In addition, the number of times home was estimated to be absent was 7 times.

  From this result, the living state estimation method according to the present invention can detect an absent case reliably and has a small number of erroneous estimations that the absence from home is present, and has sufficient determination accuracy to withstand practical use. It was confirmed.

1 Smart meter 2 Measured value data server 9 Household 10 Life situation estimation device

Claims (6)

A data reading unit for reading data, a total value calculating unit for calculating the total energy consumption, a short-term fluctuation calculating unit for calculating a short-term fluctuation range, a long-term fluctuation calculating unit for calculating a long-term fluctuation range, and a long-term fluctuation It is a method for estimating a living situation in a living situation estimating device having a threshold value determining section for determining a width threshold and a judging section for estimating a living situation of a resident, and the amount of energy used in the entire household measured by a smart meter a step of data from the storage device the data reading unit reads the the steps of the sum calculating unit energy consumption total value within the most recent past predetermined time is calculated based on the data of the energy consumption, the most recent past energy representing the degree of variation in the values of a plurality of said energy consumption the total value of the long immediate past within a short period of time than the predetermined time Energy representing the steps of the short-term variation width calculator short variation range of the total value is calculated, the degree of variation of the values of a plurality of said energy consumption the total value in the most recent past short long immediate past within a predetermined period than A step of calculating a long- term fluctuation range of the total amount of use by the long- term fluctuation range calculation unit; and a value of a short-term fluctuation range of the plurality of total energy usage values within the latest past long period that is longer than the most recent past predetermined period . a step of X percentile values in ascending sequence or descending sequence (the value of X is previously set) the threshold value determining unit as long fluctuation width threshold is determined, the long-term value of long-term fluctuation range of the energy consumption total put the living conditions by comparing the variation width the threshold the household residents estimator of living conditions, characterized by a step of the determination unit estimates Method of estimating the life situation.   2. The method for estimating a living situation according to claim 1, wherein a time zone of a day is divided, and the processing of each step is performed for each division of the time zone. Means for reading the data of the energy consumption of the whole household, which is measured by the smart meter from the storage device, and means for calculating the energy consumption total value within the most recent past predetermined time based on the data of the energy consumption, the means for calculating a short-term fluctuation range of energy usage total value representing the degree of variation of the values of a plurality of said energy consumption the total value within a short time nearest past predetermined time longer recent past than, than the most recent past short time A means for calculating a long-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy usage representing the degree of variation in the value of the plurality of total amounts of energy usage within the longest past predetermined period, and a past past length longer than the last past predetermined period. An X pattern in an ascending order or descending order of a short-term fluctuation range value of the plurality of energy usage total values within a period. The means for determining a centile value (the value of X is preset) as a long-term fluctuation threshold, and the long-term fluctuation width of the total amount of energy use and the long-term fluctuation threshold are compared with each other. A living state estimating apparatus, characterized by comprising means for estimating a living state of a person.   4. The life situation estimation apparatus according to claim 3, wherein a time zone of a day is divided and the processing of each means is performed for each of the time zone divisions. It means for reading the data of the energy consumption of the whole household, which is measured by the smart meter from the storage device, means for calculating the energy consumption total value within the most recent past predetermined time based on the data of the energy consumption, the most recent past Means for calculating a short-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy use that represents a degree of variation of a plurality of values of the total amount of energy use within the last past short time longer than a predetermined time ; the latest that is longer than the last past short time Means for calculating a long-term fluctuation range of the total amount of energy used that represents the degree of variation in the values of the plurality of total amounts of energy used within the past predetermined period; a plurality of units within the latest past long period that is longer than the last past predetermined period X-centre in an ascending or descending array of short-term fluctuation values of the total energy usage of Means for determining the threshold value (the value of X is preset) as a long-term fluctuation range threshold, and comparing the long-term fluctuation range value of the total amount of energy use with the long-term fluctuation range threshold, the resident of the household A living situation estimation program for causing a computer to function as a means for estimating the living situation of a child.   6. The life situation estimation program according to claim 5, wherein the computer is caused to function so that a time zone of a day is divided and the processing of each means is performed for each division of the time zone.

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