JP5816979B2 - Tsunami detection method, detection device, and detection program - Google Patents
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Description
本発明は、陸地における磁場変動の測定に基づく津波の検知に関するものである。 The present invention relates to tsunami detection based on measurement of magnetic field fluctuations on land.
従来、津波の観測方法としては、潮位計や圧力センサーを用いて津波を検出し警報するシステムが知られていたが、例えば巨大な津波が押し寄せてきた場合には、潮位計の針が振り切れていたり、故障したりしていた（非特許文献１参照）。また、沖合に圧力センサーが設けられ、海底ケーブルで情報を地上に送信していたが、センサーが故障した場合には、保守が困難であった。 Conventionally, tsunami observation methods have been known to detect and alert tsunamis using tide gauges and pressure sensors. However, for example, when a huge tsunami comes in, the tide gauge needle is not fully shaken. Or have failed (see Non-Patent Document 1). In addition, a pressure sensor was installed offshore, and information was transmitted to the ground via a submarine cable. However, if the sensor failed, maintenance was difficult.
また、これらの方法ではセンサーや計測部の設置位置が海底や海面に制約されることから、高い設置費用や維持費用が発生すること、船舶との衝突による損傷や太陽光線による劣化が生じること、小さな波や突風による瞬間的な波も雑音として検出してしまい津波と区別する処理が煩雑になることなどの課題があった。 Also, in these methods, the installation position of sensors and measuring units is restricted to the sea floor and the sea surface, which causes high installation costs and maintenance costs, damage due to collision with the ship and deterioration due to solar rays, There were problems such as the fact that a small wave or an instantaneous wave due to a gust of wind was detected as noise and the process of distinguishing it from a tsunami became complicated.
そこで、津波や高波の発生時に生ずるうねり性の波によって渦電流が海面に沿って流れ、渦電流と直角な方向に、正弦波状の周期的な磁界が生ずるのを、スカラ磁力計を海中ブイに収納して計測することにより、装置を海底や海面に設置することなく、錨等を用いて簡単に海に設置できるようにすると共に、津波の識別を簡単に行うことができる津波の検知方法が提案されている（特許文献１参照）。
しかしながら、この検知方法では未だ十分に、リアルタイムに正確な津波情報を得ることができず、津波被害を確実に防止するには至っていない。
Therefore, the swell wave generated during the occurrence of a tsunami or high wave causes an eddy current to flow along the sea surface, generating a sinusoidal periodic magnetic field in a direction perpendicular to the eddy current. There is a tsunami detection method that makes it possible to easily identify the tsunami while storing it and making it easy to install it on the sea using dredging, etc., without installing the device on the sea floor or sea surface. It has been proposed (see Patent Document 1).
However, this detection method has not yet sufficiently obtained accurate tsunami information in real time, and has not yet reliably prevented tsunami damage.
本発明が解決しようとする課題は、巨大津波が押し寄せてきた場合においても針が振り切れたり、故障したりせず、また、保守点検が容易であり、正確に津波の発生を検知することである。 The problem to be solved by the present invention is to detect the occurrence of a tsunami accurately because the needle does not shake out or break down even when a huge tsunami is approaching, and maintenance is easy. .
本発明は、基本的には、導電性である海水の巨大な塊の流体運動、すなわち電流により発生する磁場の微少な変動を計測することにより津波の発生を検知するための発明（下記のステップを含む津波を検知するための方法、津波を検知するためのプログラム、このプログラムを実行するための装置）である。
具体的には、本発明は、
津波を検知するために、記憶デバイスと演算処理デバイスとを備えた装置で使用されるプログラムであって、
陸地の測定地点において磁場を経時的に測定して磁場変動を把握するステップ、
現時点から所定時間遡って測定された磁場の平均値を求めるステップ、及び
該平均値と現時点の磁場の値とを比較し現時点の磁場の値と該平均値との差
を求め、当該差が前記磁場変動から算出された通常時の磁場変動と認められる所定の値を、所定の時間継続して超過した場合、津波が発生したと判断するステップを前記装置において実行させる実行可能命令を備えた、前記プログラムである。
前記測定地点は複数箇所である。前記磁場変動は、前記測定地点の中の任意の一地点と他の地点との磁場の差を求めて差信号を得、得られた差信号に基づいて把握される。前記平均値は、前記差信号について求められる。このように、陸地の複数の地点において磁場を測定するのは、地磁気の乱れ等の影響を除くためである。
また、前記プログラムを含む記憶デバイスと演算処理デバイスとを備えた装置は、磁場を測定するための磁場測定器と、前記演算処理デバイスにより演算された結果を表示する出力デバイスと、津波の発生を検知した際に津波の発生を表示する表示デバイスとを具備する。また、この装置は、津波の発生を検知したことを受けて警報を鳴らすことや、ニュース速報をメディアに流すようなシステムを更に具備することもできる。
なお、上述のプログラムを用いた津波検知のフローチャートを図８に示した。
The present invention is basically an invention for detecting the occurrence of a tsunami by measuring the fluid movement of a large block of seawater that is electrically conductive, that is, the slight fluctuation of a magnetic field generated by an electric current (the following steps) A method for detecting a tsunami including a program, a program for detecting a tsunami, and an apparatus for executing the program).
Specifically, the present invention provides:
A program used in an apparatus including a storage device and an arithmetic processing device to detect a tsunami,
Measuring magnetic field over time at land measurement points to understand magnetic field fluctuations,
A step of obtaining an average value of the magnetic field measured for a predetermined time from the current time, and comparing the average value with the value of the current magnetic field to obtain a difference between the current magnetic field value and the average value, and the difference is An executable instruction for causing the apparatus to execute a step of determining that a tsunami has occurred when a predetermined value recognized as a normal magnetic field fluctuation calculated from a magnetic field fluctuation is continuously exceeded for a predetermined time; The program.
There are a plurality of measurement points. The magnetic field fluctuation is grasped on the basis of the difference signal obtained by obtaining a difference signal by obtaining a magnetic field difference between an arbitrary point in the measurement point and another point. The average value is obtained for the difference signal. Thus, the magnetic field is measured at a plurality of points on the land in order to remove the influence of turbulence of geomagnetism and the like.
An apparatus including a storage device including the program and an arithmetic processing device includes a magnetic field measuring device for measuring a magnetic field, an output device for displaying a result calculated by the arithmetic processing device, and generation of a tsunami. And a display device that displays the occurrence of a tsunami when detected. In addition, this apparatus can further include a system that sounds an alarm upon detection of the occurrence of a tsunami and sends a breaking news to the media.
In addition, the flowchart of the tsunami detection using the above-mentioned program was shown in FIG.
また、上記磁場は、互いに直交する磁場の３成分のうちの1成分、２成分又は３成分に基づいて求めたものである。 The magnetic field is obtained based on one component, two components, or three components of the three components of the magnetic field orthogonal to each other.
また、上記所定の値は、一定の過去から現時点までの前記差の標準偏差（σ）の定数倍（ｋσ：ｋは定数（例えば２から４））である。 The predetermined value is a constant multiple (kσ: k is a constant (for example, 2 to 4)) of a standard deviation (σ) of the difference from a certain past to the present.
本発明によれば、陸地において津波の検出ができ、観測装置のメンテナスが簡単になる。また、磁場変化を測定することで津波の発生をリアルタイムで観測できるため、即時に正確な津波予測が可能となる。 According to the present invention, tsunami can be detected on land, and maintenance of the observation apparatus is simplified. Moreover, since the occurrence of a tsunami can be observed in real time by measuring the magnetic field change, an accurate and accurate tsunami prediction can be made immediately.
本発明者は、図１に示すように宮城県の細倉（HSK）に観測地点を設け、地球磁場を継続的に観測している。
細倉観測地点では、宮城県栗原市にある細倉鉱山において、2004年3月以降、１対のフラックスゲート磁力計を用いた地磁気３成分観測を行っている。１台は地下70mの坑道内に設置され、もう１台は地表下１ｍに設置されている。地中磁力計は0.5秒サンプリング、地上磁力計は１秒サンプリングで記録し、どちらの観測データもGPS電波によって時刻同期されている。
As shown in FIG. 1, the present inventor has provided an observation point in Hosokura (HSK) in Miyagi Prefecture and continuously observes the geomagnetic field.
At the Hosokura observation point, three-component geomagnetic observation has been conducted since March 2004 using a pair of fluxgate magnetometers at the Hosokura Mine in Kurihara City, Miyagi Prefecture. One is installed in a tunnel 70m underground and the other is installed 1m below the surface. The underground magnetometer records 0.5 seconds and the ground magnetometer records 1 second. Both observation data are time synchronized by GPS radio waves.
また、それぞれの記録システムは、太陽光発電やバッテリーを電力の供給源としており、商用電力系とは独立しているので地震に伴う停電等の影響はほとんどない。 In addition, each recording system uses photovoltaic power generation or a battery as a power supply source, and is independent of the commercial power system, so there is almost no influence such as a power failure accompanying an earthquake.
2011年3月11日14時46分18秒（日本時間）に2011年東北地方太平洋沖地震（モーメントマグニチュード（Mw）が9.0）が発生した。細倉観測地点と震源域までの距離は約100kmである。 The 2011 Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake (Moment Magnitude (Mw) 9.0) occurred on March 11, 2011 at 14:46:18 (Japan time). The distance from the Hosokura observation point to the epicenter is about 100 km.
図２に、各観測地点での地震発生時の地球磁場信号を示す。茨城県石岡市の柿岡（KAK）と北海道女満別（MMB）の地磁気データは、気象庁地磁気観測所の提供によるもので、東京都の奥多摩（OKM）は、東海大学地震予知研究センターより提供されたものである。地震発生時刻は、図のＴ０で示してある。地震発生から数分後には、各観測地点に地震が到達しているはずだが、磁場にさほど大きな変動は生じていない。しかしながら、細倉観測点の磁場信号を参照すると、地震発生から10分ないし18分にかけて、巨大地震、それに引き続いて発生した津波による注目すべき磁場変化が見られた。 FIG. 2 shows the geomagnetic field signal at the time of the earthquake at each observation point. The geomagnetic data of Kamaoka (KAK) in Ishioka City, Ibaraki Prefecture and Memanbetsu (MMB), Hokkaido are provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency Geomagnetic Observatory, and Okutama (OKM) in Tokyo is provided by the Tokai University Earthquake Prediction Research Center. It is. Earthquake time is indicated by T 0 of FIG. A few minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake, the earthquake should have arrived at each observation point, but the magnetic field has not changed significantly. However, referring to the magnetic field signal at the Hosokura observation station, remarkable magnetic field changes were observed from the earthquake to the next 10 to 18 minutes due to the huge earthquake and the subsequent tsunami.
地磁気の測定には、３成分観測を行っている。したがって、３成分のうちの１成分のみ（例えば、垂直磁力成分：Ｚ成分）または２成分（例えば、垂直成分Ｚと水平成分のうちの一つの成分）に注目しても良いし、３成分すべてに注目しても良い。 For the measurement of geomagnetism, three-component observation is performed. Accordingly, attention may be paid to only one of the three components (for example, the perpendicular magnetic force component: Z component) or two components (for example, one of the vertical component Z and the horizontal component), or all three components. You may pay attention to.
観測されたデータを観測しているだけでも、磁場変動の異常を観測可能であるが、観測時点から所定時間前からの磁場の平均値（Ｍ）を求め、その平均値と現時点での磁場を比較することにより、より客観的に津波を検知することができる。 Anomalies in magnetic field fluctuations can be observed just by observing the observed data, but the average value (M) of the magnetic field from a given time before the observation time is obtained, and the average value and the current magnetic field are calculated. By comparing, the tsunami can be detected more objectively.
図３は、巨大地震発生日の細倉観測点における全磁力（３成分の二乗和の平方根）のデータである。その図において、実線は、全磁力の観測波形であり、破線は、２０分間の移動平均値（Ｍで表す。）であり、二点鎖線は、Ｍ±３σである。図３より、一観測所のみの信号において津波と判断する閾値として、３σは大きすぎ、２σ程度とすべきであることがわかる。 FIG. 3 is data of the total magnetic force (the square root of the sum of the squares of the three components) at the Hosokura observation point on the date of the occurrence of the huge earthquake. In the figure, the solid line is the observed waveform of the total magnetic force, the broken line is the moving average value (represented by M) for 20 minutes, and the two-dot chain line is M ± 3σ. FIG. 3 shows that 3σ is too large and should be about 2σ as a threshold for determining a tsunami in a signal from only one station.
図４は、巨大地震発生日の細倉観測点における垂直磁力強度（Ｚ成分）のデータである。
この場合も、全磁力と同様に、一観測所のみの信号において津波と判断する閾値として、３σは大きすぎ、２σ程度とすべきであることがわかる。
FIG. 4 is data of perpendicular magnetic strength (Z component) at the Hosokura observation point on the date of the earthquake.
Also in this case, similarly to the total magnetic force, 3σ is too large as a threshold for determining a tsunami in a signal from only one observation station, and should be about 2σ.
以上のように、一観測所のデータだけからでも、津波の発生を検知できるが、さらに良い方法がある。すなわち、複数の観測点に共通な、津波以外の原因による雑音、例えば、地磁気の乱れを消去するために、津波に近い観測点と津波から遠い観測点において観測された磁場変化の差分信号を利用することで、津波に基づく磁場変化を感度よく検出することが可能となった。 As described above, the occurrence of a tsunami can be detected from data from only one station, but there is a better method. In other words, to eliminate noise caused by causes other than the tsunami, such as geomagnetic disturbances, common to multiple observation points, the difference signal of the magnetic field change observed at the observation point close to the tsunami and the observation point far from the tsunami is used. By doing so, it became possible to detect the magnetic field change based on the tsunami with high sensitivity.
図５は、細倉と女満別の観測データの全磁力の差分信号のグラフである。実線は観測波形であり、破線は、３０分間の移動平均値、二点鎖線は、Ｍ±３σである。普段は、平均値からほとんどずれずに差分信号が推移するが、巨大津波発生時には、大きくずれることが確認された。これを検出することで、マルチ観測点における磁場変化の差信号を利用した津波検知が可能である。 FIG. 5 is a graph of the difference signal of the total magnetic force between the observation data of Hosokura and Memanbetsu. A solid line is an observed waveform, a broken line is a moving average value for 30 minutes, and a two-dot chain line is M ± 3σ. The difference signal usually shifts almost without deviating from the average value, but it was confirmed that it deviated greatly when a huge tsunami occurred. By detecting this, it is possible to detect a tsunami using a difference signal of magnetic field changes at multiple observation points.
図６は、細倉と女満別の観測データの垂直磁場Ｚの差分信号のグラフである。実線は観測波形であり、破線は、３０分間の移動平均値、二点鎖線は、Ｍ±３σである。図５と同じく、普段は、平均値からほとんどずれずに差分信号が推移するが、巨大津波発生時には、大きくずれることが確認された。このように、３成分のうちの１成分であるＺ成分を検出することで、マルチ観測点における磁場変化の差信号を利用した津波検知が可能である。 FIG. 6 is a graph of the difference signal of the vertical magnetic field Z of the observation data for Hosokura and Memanbetsu. A solid line is an observed waveform, a broken line is a moving average value for 30 minutes, and a two-dot chain line is M ± 3σ. As in FIG. 5, the difference signal usually shifts with little deviation from the average value, but it was confirmed that the difference signal greatly deviated when a huge tsunami occurred. In this way, by detecting the Z component, which is one of the three components, tsunami detection using the difference signal of the magnetic field change at the multi-observation point is possible.
これを数式で現すと、時刻ｔにおける上記誤差信号をＤ（ｔ）とすると、所定の時刻から現時点までの誤差信号の平均値Ｍは、
Ｍ＝｛Ｄ（ｔ−ｎＴ）＋Ｄ（ｔ−（ｎ−１）Ｔ）＋・・・＋Ｄ（ｔ−Ｔ）｝／ｎ
となる（サンプリング間隔をＴとする。）。また、標準偏差σは、
σ２＝｛（Ｄ（ｔ−ｎＴ）―Ｍ）２＋・・・＋（Ｄ（ｔ−Ｔ）―Ｍ）２｝／ｎ
から求められる。
したがって、本発明は、
絶対値（Ｄ（ｔ）―Ｍ）＞３σ
または
絶対値（Ｄ（ｔ）―Ｍ）＞ｋσ（ｋは、任意の定数（例えば２から４））
となった時（ｔ）に、津波が発生したと判断する。
なお、上述のｎは、10分から30分となる離散時間となる。換言すれば、サンプリング間隔Ｔが1秒ならｎ＝600から1800となり、Ｔが2秒ならｎ＝300から900となる。
When this is expressed by a mathematical expression, if the error signal at time t is D (t), the average value M of error signals from a predetermined time to the present time is
M = {D (t−nT) + D (t− (n−1) T) +... + D (t−T)} / n
(Tamping interval is T). The standard deviation σ is
σ 2 = {(D (t−nT) −M) 2 +... + (D (t−T) −M) 2 } / n
It is requested from.
Therefore, the present invention
Absolute value (D (t) -M)> 3σ
Or absolute value (D (t) −M)> kσ (k is an arbitrary constant (for example, 2 to 4))
It is determined that a tsunami has occurred at (t).
The above n is a discrete time from 10 minutes to 30 minutes. In other words, if the sampling interval T is 1 second, n = 600 to 1800, and if T is 2 seconds, n = 300 to 900.
サンプリング間隔Ｔは、０．５秒から２秒程度であればよい。比較判断する大きさは、平常時の標準偏差が１ｎＴ程度であるので、具体的に、例えば、２ｎＴとしても良いが、標準偏差を規準にして定めた方が好ましい。上記の例では、３σとした。 The sampling interval T may be about 0.5 second to 2 seconds. Since the standard deviation at the normal time is about 1 nT, specifically, for example, it may be 2 nT, but it is preferable that the size to be compared is determined based on the standard deviation. In the above example, it is 3σ.
さらに、津波と検知するときは、ｋσと決めた基準の値（閾値）を所定の時間（例えば３０秒程度）連続して超えた場合とするのが好ましい。なぜなら、地磁気観測を行っている場合に、非常に鋭いピークを持ったパルスが観測されることがしばしばあるからである。地磁気観測では有名な話であり、原因は定かではないが、車とか人間とか鳥とか言われている。 Further, when detecting a tsunami, it is preferable that the reference value (threshold value) determined as kσ is continuously exceeded for a predetermined time (for example, about 30 seconds). This is because when a geomagnetic observation is performed, a pulse having a very sharp peak is often observed. It is a well-known story in geomagnetic observation, and the cause is not clear, but it is said to be a car, a human being, or a bird.
図７は、細倉と女満別の観測データの全磁力の差分信号のグラフと相馬における水位計のグラフを時刻同期して表示したものである。相馬は、震源に比較的近く、水位が１０ｍにも達している。図７より、津波は、１５時頃に発生し、１６時前に相馬に到達したことがわかる。したがって、津波到達の５０分前には津波警報を発することが可能である。 FIG. 7 shows a graph of the difference signal of the total magnetic force of the observation data of Hosokura and Memanbetsu and a graph of the water level meter in Soma in time synchronization. Soma is relatively close to the epicenter and the water level has reached 10m. As can be seen from FIG. 7, the tsunami occurred around 15:00 and reached Soma before 16:00. Therefore, it is possible to issue a tsunami warning 50 minutes before the arrival of the tsunami.
以上から明らかなように、マルチ観測点における磁場変化の差信号を利用して津波検知が可能となる。しかも、観測点間で所定の差以上の信号が出た地域の近くで津波が発生したことが分かる。このように本発明は、磁場の差信号を利用する点、リアルタイムの観測が可能である。 As is clear from the above, it is possible to detect a tsunami using a difference signal of magnetic field changes at multiple observation points. Moreover, it can be seen that a tsunami occurred near an area where a signal greater than a predetermined difference between observation points was generated. As described above, the present invention enables real-time observation in that the magnetic field difference signal is used.
本発明者は、細倉鉱山に作られた観測点で2011年3月11日に発生した東北地方太平洋沖地震（東日本大震災）において、巨大津波に伴う磁場変動を観測することに成功した。これは地震電磁気観測にとって画期的なことであり、この成果をもとに、例えば巨大な津波への緊急警報が可能となるため、本分野の飛躍的な発展が大いに期待できる。 The present inventor succeeded in observing magnetic field fluctuations associated with a giant tsunami in the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake (East Japan Earthquake) that occurred on March 11, 2011 at an observation point created in the Hosokura Mine. This is a breakthrough for seismic electromagnetic observation, and based on this result, for example, an emergency warning for a huge tsunami becomes possible.
MMB 女満別（北海道）
HSK 細倉（宮城県）
KAK 柿岡（茨城県）
OKM 奥多摩（東京都）
ESS 江刺（岩手県）
Aftershock Area 余震の領域
Tohoku EQ 東北地方地震の震源地
Tsunami 津波
MMB Memanbetsu (Hokkaido)
HSK Hosokura (Miyagi Prefecture)
KAK Kashioka (Ibaraki Prefecture)
OKM Okutama (Tokyo)
ESS Esashi (Iwate Prefecture)
Aftershock Area Aftershock Area
Tohoku EQ Tohoku Earthquake
Tsunami
Claims (3)
陸地の測定地点において磁場を経時的に測定して磁場変動を把握するステップ、
現時点から所定時間遡って測定された磁場の平均値を求めるステップ、及び
該平均値と現時点の磁場の値とを比較し現時点の磁場の値と該平均値との差を求め、当該差が前記磁場変動から算出された通常時の磁場変動と認められる所定の値を、所定の時間継続して超過した場合、津波が発生したと判断するステップ
を備え、
前記測定地点が複数箇所であり、
前記磁場変動は、前記測定地点の中の任意の一地点と他の地点との磁場の差を求めて差信号を得、得られた差信号に基づいて把握され、
前記平均値は前記差信号について求められる、
前記方法。 A method for detecting a tsunami before the tsunami reaches the land,
Measuring magnetic field over time at land measurement points to understand magnetic field fluctuations,
A step of obtaining an average value of the magnetic field measured for a predetermined time from the current time, and comparing the average value with the value of the current magnetic field to obtain a difference between the current magnetic field value and the average value, and the difference is A step of determining that a tsunami has occurred when a predetermined value recognized as a normal magnetic field fluctuation calculated from the magnetic field fluctuation is continuously exceeded for a predetermined time,
The measurement points are a plurality of locations,
The magnetic field variation is obtained based on a difference signal obtained by obtaining a difference signal by obtaining a magnetic field difference between an arbitrary point in the measurement point and another point,
The average value is determined for the difference signal;
Said method.
陸地の測定地点において磁場を経時的に測定して磁場変動を把握するステップ、
現時点から所定時間遡って測定された磁場の平均値を求めるステップ、及び
該平均値と現時点の磁場の値とを比較し現時点の磁場の値と該平均値との差を求め、当該差が前記磁場変動から算出された通常時の磁場変動と認められる所定の値を、所定の時間継続して超過した場合、津波が発生したと判断するステップ
を前記装置において実行させる実行可能命令を備え、
前記測定地点が複数箇所であり、
前記磁場変動は、前記測定地点の中の任意の一地点と他の地点との磁場の差を求めて差信号を得、得られた差信号に基づいて把握され、
前記平均値は前記差信号について求められる、
前記プログラム。 A program used in an apparatus including a storage device and an arithmetic processing device to detect a tsunami,
Measuring magnetic field over time at land measurement points to understand magnetic field fluctuations,
A step of obtaining an average value of the magnetic field measured for a predetermined time from the current time, and comparing the average value with the value of the current magnetic field to obtain a difference between the current magnetic field value and the average value, and the difference is An executable instruction for causing the apparatus to execute a step of determining that a tsunami has occurred when a predetermined value recognized as a normal magnetic field fluctuation calculated from the magnetic field fluctuation is continuously exceeded for a predetermined time;
The measurement points are a plurality of locations,
The magnetic field variation is obtained based on a difference signal obtained by obtaining a difference signal by obtaining a magnetic field difference between an arbitrary point in the measurement point and another point,
The average value is determined for the difference signal;
The program.
磁場を測定するための磁場測定器と、
前記演算処理デバイスにより演算された結果を表示する出力デバイスと、
津波の発生を検知した際に津波の発生を表示する表示デバイスと
を具備する、津波を検知するための装置。
An apparatus for executing the program according to claim 2, comprising a storage device and an arithmetic processing device,
A magnetic field measuring instrument for measuring the magnetic field;
An output device for displaying a result calculated by the arithmetic processing device;
An apparatus for detecting a tsunami, comprising a display device that displays the occurrence of a tsunami when the occurrence of a tsunami is detected.
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