JP3226468B2 - Damage assessment system due to wind disaster - Google Patents

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a system for evaluating damage caused by a wind disaster.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In general, it is important to evaluate the maximum possible loss in non-life insurance business. Particularly, in the general insurance business against typhoon disasters, it is necessary to evaluate the maximum possible loss appropriately and efficiently. It was desired to evaluate. By the way, conventionally, it has been practiced to calculate the maximum wind speed in each place by an assumed typhoon, estimate the damage rate and damage rate of the building based on the calculated typhoon, and further calculate the insurance claims paid based on the insurance contract data. .

[0003]

However, since the above-described series of evaluation operations are individually performed, a large amount of time and labor is required for data input operation and calculation result output operation. In particular, it was extremely difficult to grasp the damage level and the distribution of insurance claims paid for each municipal county in Japan, because it required work to write on a map. The present invention has been made in view of such a problem, and an object of the present invention is to provide a damage evaluation system for a wind disaster capable of appropriately and efficiently evaluating damage caused by a typhoon.

[0004]

Means for Solving the Problems In order to achieve the above-mentioned object, the present invention provides a database having time-series information of typhoon courses and powers as typhoon information and the typhoon information at predetermined time intervals. Maximum instantaneous wind speed calculating means for calculating the maximum instantaneous wind speed for each point, and damage evaluation means for evaluating damage using a relational expression between the maximum instantaneous wind speed for each point and the damage rate of the building, the damage rate. This is a characteristic damage assessment system for wind disasters.

In the present invention, when the path and power of a typhoon are input, the maximum instantaneous wind speed at a municipal county representative point nationwide is evaluated, and based on this, the morbidity rate / damage rate, insurance claims paid, etc. Is calculated. In addition, since the present evaluation system has an additional routine for the evaluation target points, it is possible to evaluate the maximum instantaneous wind speed, the damage rate, and the damage rate in any region in Japan by additionally inputting the evaluation points. In the present invention, it is assumed that a personal computer is used, and an interactive system in which setting parameters can be input and evaluation results can be output on a computer screen. In the present invention, a geographic information system is used for displaying a database, inputting various setting conditions for wind speed evaluation, and displaying wind speed and damage evaluation results.

[0006]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below in detail with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a damage evaluation system 1 according to one embodiment of the present invention. The damage evaluation system 1 includes a database 3, a wind speed evaluation unit 5,
It consists of a damage evaluation unit 7. The wind speed evaluation unit 5 and the damage evaluation unit 7 are units executed by the personal computer.

The database 3 stores typhoon track data 9, nationwide meteorological office data 11, nationwide meteorological office observation extreme data 13, nationwide municipal representative point position data 15, and the like. The typhoon track data 9 is data relating to past famous typhoons and is synonymous with typhoon parameters. FIG.
Indicates the typhoon parameters of the loose typhoon (Typhoon 5115), where the typhoon parameters are typhoon position, traveling speed,
Central pressure, peripheral pressure, pressure drop, maximum rotation wind radius,
This is time-series data such as a flag indicating landing.

The national meteorological office data 11 is the maximum value or the minimum value of the meteorological observation data at each meteorological office during a period when a certain typhoon affects the Japanese archipelago. The Meteorological Office is an observatory of the Japan Meteorological Agency installed at 159 locations throughout Japan. In part A of FIG. 5, the weather office data 11 of the weather office (Kobe) is displayed.

The extreme weather data 13 of the National Meteorological Office is extreme data of the meteorological observation data at the national meteorological offices of the whole country. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a part of the extreme weather data 13 observed by the National Meteorological Office. As shown in FIG. 3, the extreme weather data 13 of the National Meteorological Office includes the minimum atmospheric pressure, the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, the minimum humidity, etc. at each Meteorological Office, and the date of occurrence thereof. The national ward / county / country representative point position data 15 is coordinate data of 1334 points selected from all over Japan.

[0010] The wind speed evaluation unit 5 calculates the maximum instantaneous wind speed at a representative point of a municipal ward in a typhoon as a target. The damage evaluation unit 7 performs a damage evaluation at a nationwide ward representative point based on the calculated maximum instantaneous wind speed.

Next, the processing of the damage evaluation system 1 will be described. First, without damage assessment, database 3
The procedure for displaying the data in the table will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.

When the damage evaluation system 1 is started and a predetermined operation is performed, a plurality of past famous typhoon names are displayed on a menu screen (step 401). When the operator selects a predetermined typhoon from among them (step 402), a typhoon track is displayed (step 403).

Further, when a menu is selected (step 404), a typhoon parameter is displayed on the screen (step 405), a typhoon track, a strong wind circle, and a storm circle are displayed (step 406). Is displayed (step 407).

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a display on the display when two typhoons are selected, a typhoon track is displayed, and observation data of one of the typhoons at the Meteorological Office (Kobe) is displayed. That is, step 40
FIG. 6 is a diagram showing display examples at 6 and 407.

Next, a process for evaluating damage caused by a typhoon using the damage evaluation system 1 will be described with reference to the flowcharts of FIGS.

In performing the damage evaluation, the damage evaluation system 1 performs the damage evaluation by two methods. The first method is to evaluate damage by using the typhoon information of the past actual typhoon as it is, changing the course of the past actual typhoon, or changing the power of the past actual typhoon. . In the second method, immediately after the typhoon actually passes, information on the position and power of the typhoon at a plurality of times announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency is input to evaluate the damage, or the typhoon actually tries to land In this case, the operator evaluates the damage by assuming only the landing point and the power at that time.

First, the first method will be described. When the damage evaluation system 1 is started and any one typhoon is selected from past actual typhoons by a predetermined operation, the typhoon parameters of the typhoon are read from the database 3 (step 601). FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a display on the display at this time. The operator selects a menu (step 602). In this case, the menu is selected to reproduce the past typhoon (step 603), the landing point is changed (step 604), or the power of the typhoon is changed (step 605).

When reproducing the past typhoon in step 603, the typhoon parameters of the past actual typhoon are used as they are. When changing the landing point in step 604, of the past actual typhoon parameters, only the position data is translated, and the other parameters are not changed. When the power of the typhoon is changed in step 605, the center pressure, the amount of pressure decrease, and the maximum rotation wind speed radius are changed while keeping the center pressure and the traveling speed of the typhoon parameters of the past actual typhoon unchanged.

When the typhoon parameters are set in this way, the wind speed is evaluated using the typhoon parameters (step 606).

FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the specific processing of step 606. First, the gradient wind speed for each point is calculated at intervals of 20 minutes. The gradient wind speed is a wind speed in the sky that is not affected by friction due to the ground surface, and the point-by-point gradient wind speed is a gradient wind speed at a nationwide municipal county representative point or a national meteorological office position.

Next, a representative surface wind speed for each point is calculated at intervals of 20 minutes (step 702). The typical surface wind speed is
It is calculated by multiplying the gradient wind speed by a coefficient (wind speed ratio) to convert it to wind speed at the ground surface (average wind speed).

Next, the maximum instantaneous wind speed for each point is calculated at intervals of 20 minutes (step 703). The maximum instantaneous wind speed is the typical surface wind speed multiplied by the gust factor.

Although the maximum instantaneous wind speed at each point is calculated at intervals of 20 minutes for the processing in steps 701, 702, and 703, the time interval is not limited to 20 minutes.

In this manner, the maximum instantaneous wind speed for each point is calculated, and the operator displays the wind speed (step 60).
7) Select an evaluation target map (step 608) and display the result (step 609). The evaluation target map is a distribution map at a nationwide municipal county representative value point or a distribution map at a national meteorological office.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a display on the display when a nationwide ward / county / county representative point is selected as the evaluation target map. Thus, the maximum instantaneous wind speed at each point is displayed. After assessing the wind speed, the damage can be further assessed (step 610). In this case, using the relational expression between the calculated maximum instantaneous wind speed and the damage rate and damage rate of the building,
Evaluate the morbidity rate, damage rate, amount of insurance paid, etc. for each municipality nationwide. In addition, the calculation results for each city, ward, and county can be totaled for each prefecture and nationwide. When the damage is evaluated (step 610), by referring to the insurance contract data relating to the number of contracts and the total insurance amount for each city, district, property, and structure, the maximum instantaneous wind speed calculated in step 606 is used for the market. The morbidity rate, damage rate, number of payments, average insurance payment, etc. are calculated for each ward, property, structure, and type of affliction. Furthermore, as the product of the number of payments and the average insurance money, the amount of insurance money to be paid is calculated for each city, ward, county, property, and affected form. Then, the result is displayed (step 612). in this case,
The morbidity rate, insurance claims paid, total paid insurance claims / insurance claims, etc. are displayed for each city.

As described above, in the first method, one of the past famous typhoons is selected, and the assumed typhoon is set by reproducing the typhoon or changing the route and the power. In this method, since the typhoon parameter obtained in advance by the objective analysis is used, the evaluation accuracy of the wind speed is high. That is, in the first method, the maximum damage that can be caused by the typhoon disaster can be easily evaluated. Further, depending on conditions, the present invention can also be applied to damage estimation before and after the actual typhoon landing.

Next, the second method will be described with reference to FIG. In the second method, for example, the damage is evaluated immediately after the typhoon actually passes or when the typhoon is about to land.

When the typhoon actually passes, the position and power of the typhoon at a plurality of times during the passage are input based on the typhoon information announced by the Meteorological Agency (step 802). If it is before the typhoon passes, an input is made assuming the position and power at the time of landing (step 803). Step 802
In the case of, the maximum rotation wind speed radius of the typhoon parameters is simply evaluated from an empirical formula based on past typhoon statistics.

In the case of step 803, the maximum rotation wind speed radius, traveling speed, and traveling direction among the typhoon parameters are simply evaluated from an empirical formula based on past typhoon statistics. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing the estimated course of the typhoon when the position and power at the time of landing are input (step 803). Then, the process proceeds to step 606 in FIG. Subsequent steps are first
This is the same as the above method.

As described above, in the second method, the typhoon parameters are evaluated from an empirical formula based on past statistical data. In the case of step 802, the typhoon route (center position at any time) and the center pressure announced by the Meteorological Agency immediately after the passage of the typhoon are input, and the wind speed and damage due to the typhoon are immediately predicted. In the case of step 803, only the center position and center pressure of the approaching typhoon are input,
Forecast the course, wind speed and damage.
In each case, typhoon parameters are simply evaluated from empirical formulas based on past typhoon statistical data.

That is, in the second method, the maximum wind speed and the insurance money to be paid in each place due to the typhoon can be predicted in advance while approaching or immediately after passing Japan. The non-life insurers can use the results to quickly move on to various preparedness actions in response to disasters. Note that the first method and the second method
In the above method, only the method of setting the typhoon parameter is different, but the subsequent wind speed calculation method is common.

As described above, according to the present embodiment, a series of operations from setting of an assumed typhoon to calculation of insurance claims to be paid for each municipality can be shortened by simple operations such as menu selection on a computer screen. Since work can be performed in time, work efficiency can be improved.

Further, since a database of past famous typhoons and weather observation data from all over the country is linked to the present system, it is easy to reproduce the past typhoons and to compare the simulation results with actual observation data. it can.

Further, the distribution of the maximum instantaneous wind speed in various parts of the country,
The morbidity rate, damage rate, and distribution of insurance payments for each municipal city can be displayed on the screen as color-coded map information, and can be printed, making it easy to grasp the damage situation over a wide area. And make quick and appropriate decisions for necessary emergency response.

[0035]

As described above in detail, according to the present invention, it is possible to provide a damage evaluation system for a wind disaster capable of efficiently evaluating the damage of a typhoon.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a damage evaluation system 1.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing typhoon track data 9;

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the extreme weather data 13 observed by the National Meteorological Office.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing processing when displaying data in a database 3;

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a display on a display in steps 406 and 407 of FIG. 4;

FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing processing of the damage evaluation system 1.

FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing processing of the damage evaluation system 1.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing processing of the damage evaluation system 1.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a course of a typhoon.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a display example of a maximum instantaneous wind speed at each point.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a course of a typhoon.

[Explanation of symbols]

 1 Damage evaluation system 3 Database 5 Wind speed evaluation unit 7 Damage evaluation unit

Continued on the front page (72) Inventor Motoya Taguchi 1-4, Nakase, Mihama-ku, Chiba-city, Chiba Prefecture Tokio Marine Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. Risk Management Business Department (72) Harumi Yashiro 1-4, Nakase, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba Tokio Marine Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. Risk Management Business Department (72) Inventor Toru Miura 1-4 Nakase, Mihama-ku, Chiba City, Chiba Prefecture Tokio Marine Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. Risk Management Business Department (72) Inventor Takayuki Fukuda Chiba Chiba Prefecture 1-4, Nakase, Nakase, Mihama-ku, Tokio Marine & Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. Risk Management Business Department (72) Inventor Tomomi Mizukoshi 2-9-1-1, Tobita-Sen, Chofu-shi, Tokyo Kashima Construction Co., Ltd. Technical Research Institute (72) Inventor Yoshida Masakuni 2-19-1, Tobita-Shi, Chofu-shi, Tokyo Kashima Construction Co., Ltd.Technical Research Institute (72) Inventor Hiroshi Ishida 2-9-1-1, Tobita-Shiita, Chofu-shi, Tokyo Kashima Construction Co., Ltd. Person Shigeru Kashima Construction Co., Ltd.Technical Research Laboratory (2-1) Kashima Construction Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Eiji Takaoka Kashima Construction Co., Ltd. Technical Research Laboratory (72) Invention Toshihiro Koiso 1-2-7 Moto-Akasaka, Minato-ku, Tokyo Kashima Construction Co., Ltd. (56) References JP-A-7-168804 (JP, A) Masaaki Kawaguchi, Wind damage and casualty insurance, Journal of Japan Wind Engineering Society, July 1995, No. 64, p. 49-59 Tokunosuke Fujitani, Wind and Disaster, Building Technology, July 2006, No. 531, p. 90-94 Kaoru Mizukoshi, et al., Development of Damage Assessment System Due to Typhoon Disaster, Kashima Institute of Technology Annual Report, December 20, 1996, No. 44, p. 165-168 (58) Field surveyed (Int. Cl. ⁷ , DB name) G06F 19/00 100 G01W 1/02 G06F 17/60 212 JICST file (JOIS)

Claims (9)

(57) [Claims] 1. A database having time series information of a typhoon's course and power as typhoon information; a maximum instantaneous wind speed calculating means for calculating a point-by-point maximum instantaneous wind speed at predetermined time intervals using the typhoon information; A damage assessment system for assessing damage using a relational expression between the maximum instantaneous wind speed at each point and the damage rate and damage rate of the building; 2. The maximum instantaneous wind speed calculating means: calculating a point-specific gradient wind speed; calculating a point-specific representative surface wind speed by multiplying the point-specific gradient wind speed by a wind speed ratio; 2. The damage assessment system according to claim 1, further comprising: calculating a maximum instantaneous wind speed for each point by multiplying a target surface wind speed by a gust factor. 3. A damage caused by a wind disaster according to claim 1, further comprising a database for storing past typhoon information, wherein said maximum instantaneous wind speed calculating means uses past typhoon information stored in said database. Evaluation system. 4. A database for storing past typhoon information, and means for generating typhoon information whose course has been changed among the typhoon information, wherein the maximum instantaneous wind speed calculation means changes the course. 2. The damage assessment system according to claim 1, wherein the typhoon information is used. 5. A database for storing past typhoon information, and a unit for generating typhoon information having a changed power among the typhoon information, wherein the maximum instantaneous wind speed calculation means changes the power. 2. The damage assessment system according to claim 1, wherein the typhoon information is used. 6. The damage assessment system according to claim 5, wherein the change of the power changes a pressure drop amount and a maximum rotation wind speed radius. 7. The damage evaluation means uses the number of contracts by city, county, property, and structure, the total amount of insurance, and the maximum instantaneous wind speed for each point to calculate the number of payments and average insurance payments paid. 2. The damage assessment system according to claim 1, wherein the system calculates the claims paid by city, district, property, and structure as a product of the number of payments and the average claims paid. 8. The damage assessment system according to claim 1, wherein the typhoon information is based on a course and a power immediately after the typhoon has actually passed. 9. The damage assessment system according to claim 1, wherein the typhoon information is based on a predicted landing course and a predicted power when a typhoon actually tries to land. .