CN113469582B - Multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method - Google Patents

Multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method Download PDF

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CN113469582B
CN113469582B CN202111017445.7A CN202111017445A CN113469582B CN 113469582 B CN113469582 B CN 113469582B CN 202111017445 A CN202111017445 A CN 202111017445A CN 113469582 B CN113469582 B CN 113469582B
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高江波
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Abstract

A multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method comprises the following steps: constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoon under different strength grades according to the influence factors of the typhoon strength grade and the typhoon strength grade; establishing loss standards of typhoons under different strength levels based on the loss rate curves of the elements, and evaluating the vulnerability of a typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the loss standards; and meanwhile, the risk of typhoon occurrence under different strength levels is evaluated based on the typhoon path data. The method realizes quantitative evaluation of typhoon disaster risks by combining vulnerability of a typhoon disaster carrier on the basis of analyzing occurrence risk of typhoon disasters.

Description

Multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of disaster risk assessment, in particular to a multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method.
Background
The rise in temperature not only directly affects the change in extreme temperature values, but also causes changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as high temperature drought and rainstorm flooding. The frequency of extreme weather events, the frequency, intensity of the occurrence of extreme events, and the weather hazard damage associated therewith, have received a high level of attention from relevant researchers. In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of extremely strong precipitation events in high-latitude areas in the northern hemisphere have increased, the abnormal cold night frequency related to the lowest air temperature in most areas is obviously reduced, the abnormal warm night frequency is obviously increased, the drought phenomenon in the subtropical areas of the global land becomes stronger and more durable, and the strong tropical cyclone activity in the northern atlantic area is increased.
Tropical cyclone and typhoon have great influence on the survival of human beings and the development of social economy, and cause disasters very serious. Tropical cyclone is a cyclonic vortex occurring in tropical or subtropical oceans and is classified by strength into tropical low pressure, tropical storm, strong tropical storm, typhoon, strong typhoon and super strong typhoon. Of these, typhoons and above are the most destructive (near-center maximum wind speeds greater than 32.7 m/s). The strong tropical cyclone is accompanied by fierce wind, rainstorm, billow, storm and the like, has wide range of activity and strong destructive power, is a serious disastrous weather system, and is a disaster which has the highest global occurrence frequency and the most serious influence. The term "typhoon" as used herein is a general term for tropical cyclones causing disaster damage including tropical storms, strong tropical storms, typhoons, strong typhoons and ultra-strong typhoons.
Many scholars make corresponding analysis on the relationship between typhoon intensity and global warming from the perspective of global change, and now, although the relationship is not enough to prove that the incidence frequency and the average intensity of the western pacific typhoons tend to increase, few strong typhoons with extremely destructive power correspondingly increase along with the increase of global sea level temperature, which indicates that few typhoon disasters may cause more serious influence.
Since the 21 st century, a series of natural disasters such as indian ocean tsunami, us katrina hurricane, bangla intense heat zone storm and the like, which occur in succession, cause huge losses to human life and property. Although the number of casualties caused by typhoon disasters is reduced due to the gradual improvement of a disaster forecasting and early warning system and the continuous construction of disaster prevention and reduction projects, the economic loss caused by the disasters is increased sharply.
Typhoon disaster risk research is important content and necessary foundation of typhoon risk management, and the research result is important foundation and scientific basis for making relevant policies, implementing risk mitigation measures, implementing disaster prevention and reduction projects and making emergency plans, and is also important guarantee for realizing regional social sustainable development. Therefore, typhoon disaster risk research has important theoretical and practical significance as important content of disaster risk assessment in coastal areas.
The typhoon disaster risk assessment method in the prior art comprises the following steps: a scoring method; comprehensively reflecting typhoon risks from the intensity of typhoon disaster factors (typhoon rainstorms and typhoon strong winds) and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies (population density, population-average ratio GDP and proportion of agriculture in GDP); evaluating and partitioning the typhoon disaster risk by adopting a disaster risk index and weighted comprehensive evaluation method; performing risk assessment and zoning based on the risk of typhoon disasters and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies; on the basis of analyzing disaster data of casualties, farmland flooded areas and house collapse, performing risk assessment on typhoon disasters by utilizing ArcGIS space analysis; and evaluating the risk of the southern coastal eight-province city based on the occurrence frequency of typhoon disasters and potential social vulnerability.
In the current natural disaster research, the concept of 'risk' is not uniformly defined, and many scholars adopt the following models to perform qualitative grade evaluation on the regional disaster risk:
R=P×C （1）；
wherein, R is the natural disaster risk, P is the risk of the natural disaster risk event, and C is the result of the natural disaster risk event. The risk and consequences of a natural disaster risk event are included in equation (1). However, the mechanism of many natural disasters is not completely understood due to the complexity and difficulty of the work. Therefore, according to the civil administration industry standard MZ/T031-.
TABLE 1 Natural disaster Risk level
Figure 389838DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Based on the natural disaster system theory, the typhoon disaster system is a complex disaster system which is formed by interaction of typhoon generation and moving paths, disaster-pregnant environment of landing areas, typhoon disaster-causing factors and disaster-bearing bodies of landing areas. The method has the advantages that the method has deeper and extensive researches from three aspects of strong wind, rainstorm and storm surge caused by typhoon, the vulnerability of a typhoon disaster bearing body is mainly focused on the structural vulnerability, the method is mainly focused on a single element of a specific disaster bearing body, the researches in the aspects of population, society and economy are considered less comprehensively, the semi-quantitative researches of typhoon risk evaluation with relatively high and low risk levels are more, and the quantitative evaluation method is lacked.
Disclosure of Invention
Objects of the invention
The invention aims to provide a multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method, which carries out quantitative assessment on risk values of multiple disaster bearing bodies so as to perfect a theoretical system for typhoon disaster risk assessment.
(II) technical scheme
In order to solve the above problems, according to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for assessing risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster, including: constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoon under different strength grades according to the typhoon strength grade and the typhoon disaster-bearing body; establishing loss standards of typhoons under different strength levels based on the loss rate curves of the elements, and evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the loss standards; and meanwhile, the risk of typhoon occurrence under different strength levels is evaluated based on the typhoon path data.
Further, constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoon under different strength levels according to the typhoon strength level and the typhoon disaster-bearing body comprises: obtaining buffer areas of typhoons under different intensity levels according to the buffer radius of the typhoon intensity levels, wherein the areas covered by the buffer areas are defined as typhoon influence areas under different intensity levels; acquiring a correlation between the typhoon intensity level and the typhoon disaster-bearing body in the typhoon influence area; and constructing loss rate curves of all elements of the typhoon under different strength grades based on the correlation.
Further, the typhoon disaster-bearing body comprises: population, economy, farmland, housing; the evaluation index of the farmland comprises: the disaster area of crops and the dead area of crops; the evaluation indexes of the population include: disaster-stricken population, dead population, injured population, emergency population; the evaluation index of the house includes: collapsing the house; the economic evaluation index includes: direct economic loss.
Further, constructing loss rate curves of various elements of the typhoon under different intensity levels based on the correlation relationship comprises: and calculating the loss rate of each typhoon disaster-bearing body and the average loss quantity caused by typhoons with different strength grades, and constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoons with different strength grades.
Further, calculating the loss rate of each typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the following formula:
Figure 179939DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure 731006DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
ilthe loss rate of the ith disaster carrier l,Lilthe loss amount of the index of the disaster bearing body i of the ith typhoon of each field, EiThe exposure of the ith disaster-bearing body.
Further, evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the loss criterion comprises: on the basis of the loss standard, combining a typhoon disaster mechanism and a disaster damage curve of disaster data, and constructing a vulnerability curve of the typhoon disaster bearing body according to the following formula:
Figure 248444DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
wherein V is the vulnerability of a typhoon disaster-bearing body; x is typhoon grade;
and quantitatively evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the vulnerability curve, and analyzing the spatial pattern of the typhoon disaster-bearing body by adopting ArcGIS software.
Further, simultaneously evaluating the risk of typhoon occurrence under different intensity levels based on the typhoon path data comprises: calculating the landing frequency of typhoon in each typhoon influence area based on the spatial pattern analysis of ArcGIS software; acquiring the total length of a typhoon path under different intensity levels in each typhoon influence area; and after normalization processing is carried out on the login frequency and the total length of the typhoon path, the risk of typhoon occurrence under different intensity levels is evaluated.
Further, after the normalization processing is performed on the landing frequency and the total length of the typhoon path, the evaluation of the risk of typhoon occurrence under different intensity levels includes: firstly, normalizing the login frequency and the total length of the typhoon path according to the following two formulas:
Figure 568567DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
Figure 529570DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
and then carrying out equal weight summation on the typhoon occurrence risks under different intensity levels according to the following formula so as to evaluate the typhoon occurrence risks under different intensity levels:
Figure 302354DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
in the formula, alphaijAnd betaijRespectively representing the landing frequency number of an i-level typhoon landing j area and a typhoon path total length normalization index; xijAnd YijRepresenting the i-level typhoon landing frequency and the total length of a typhoon path in a j area; ximin(Ximax) And Yimin(Yimax) Representing the minimum (multiple) frequency number and the shortest (long) total path length, P, of the i-level typhoon landingijThe risk of logging in the j area for typhoon of the i level.
Further, the evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the loss standard and the risk of the typhoon occurring under different strength levels based on the typhoon path data evaluation to obtain the evaluation result of the typhoon disaster risk under different strength levels further comprises: calculating the following typhoon disaster social and economic risk quantitative evaluation model to obtain a typhoon disaster risk evaluation result:
Figure 593789DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
Figure 768418DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
in the formula, RijI-level typhoon disaster risks in j area; diThe damage degree of the typhoon disaster is i grade; ejThe exposure of disaster-bearing bodies in the j area; pijRisk of i-level typhoon disaster in j area VijThe vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body of the j-area i-level typhoon disaster is shown.
(III) advantageous effects
The technical scheme of the invention has the following beneficial technical effects:
the method combines natural environment elements of typhoon disaster formation and social elements of social economic disaster bearing bodies, comprehensively considers the loss and risk of typhoon disaster, and carries out more detailed quantitative evaluation on the risk values of a plurality of disaster bearing bodies in a large-scale space scale. Specifically, on the basis of analyzing the occurrence risk of the typhoon disaster, a vulnerability curve of the typhoon disaster-bearing body is established in combination with the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body, and the typhoon disaster risk is quantitatively evaluated from the perspective of the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body, so that a theoretical system of typhoon disaster risk evaluation is perfected. When the disaster prevention and reduction measures for typhoon are made, related personnel can clearly understand the typhoon risk loss conditions in different areas; after a typhoon disaster with certain intensity occurs, the disaster loss of a typhoon affected area can be quickly and accurately known, and scientific support is provided for post-disaster rescue and reconstruction.
Meanwhile, the typhoon disaster situation data, the typhoon intensity data, the typhoon path data and the disaster-bearing body data are adopted, on the basis of establishing corresponding curves between typhoon disasters with different intensity levels and disaster-bearing body loss rates, a risk assessment model is applied to areas frequently affected by the typhoons, risk values of crops, population, houses and economy caused by the typhoons with different intensity levels are quantitatively assessed, risks caused by the typhoons are partitioned, and scientific disaster prevention and reduction strategy suggestions are provided according to area risk differences.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating steps of a method for assessing risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a flowchart of step S1 of the method for evaluating risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to the embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a flowchart of step S2 of the method for evaluating risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to the embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a flowchart of step S3 of the method for evaluating risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to the embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a technical route diagram of a multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a graph of population disaster rates for an embodiment.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with the following detailed description. It should be understood that the description is intended to be exemplary only, and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Moreover, in the following description, descriptions of well-known structures and techniques are omitted so as to not unnecessarily obscure the concepts of the present invention.
The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Firstly, the data and sources thereof required in the present invention are mainly:
(1) typhoon disaster data: the method is derived from typhoon disaster data recorded in various disasters collected in the national weather bureau Chinese tropical cyclone disaster data set, the national disaster reduction center disaster information department and the national academy of sciences disaster reduction center work project. The method comprises typhoon numbers, typhoon names, landing time, landing places, affected areas, crop disaster areas, crop outharvest areas, disaster population, dead population, injured population, collapsed house number and direct economic loss.
(2) Typhoon path data: the optimal path data set for tropical cyclone in pacific northwest from taifeng network of china. This data set records, in addition to the typhoon number and its name, the position of the typhoon center every 6 hours (longitude, latitude), the near-center maximum wind speed, the near-center minimum air pressure, and the typhoon intensity information.
(3) Administrative division data: national branch county administrative zoning map from national basic geographic information center in 2004.
(4) The cultivated land area, population and GDP data are all derived from the national province statistical yearbook.
(5) House data: the number of houses is derived from national census data, main information comprises the number of family members in each county, the number of houses and the like, and the total number of houses in each county and county in the country is obtained by combining the average housing area of the people in the past years in each county and city.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating steps of a method for assessing risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 1, the method for assessing risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:
step S1: and constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoon under different strength grades according to the typhoon strength grade and the typhoon disaster-bearing body.
Preferably, the typhoon disaster-bearing body comprises: population, economy, farmland, housing; the evaluation indexes of the farmland comprise: the disaster area of crops and the dead area of crops; the evaluation indexes of the population include: disaster-stricken population, dead population, injured population, emergency population; the evaluation indexes of the house include: collapsing the house; economic evaluation indexes include: direct economic loss.
Specifically, fig. 2 is a flowchart of step S1 of the method for assessing risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to the embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 2, step S1 includes:
step S11: and obtaining buffer areas of the typhoons under different intensity levels according to the buffer radius of the typhoon intensity levels, wherein the areas covered by the buffer areas are defined as typhoon influence areas under different intensity levels.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the typhoon intensity classes are divided into: second grade (tropical storm), third grade (strong tropical storm), fourth grade (typhoon), fifth grade (strong typhoon) and sixth grade (super strong typhoon).
Firstly, a typhoon center position point is determined every 6 hours, and typhoon paths of each time are generated on an ArcGIS software platform so as to determine an accurate typhoon influence area. Determining the buffer radius of the typhoon with different grades according to the action strength of the typhoon with different grades, and finally obtaining the buffer area according to different buffer radii. For example: and respectively making buffer areas with buffer radiuses of 75km, 100km, 125km and 150km for typhoons of the second level (tropical storm), the third level (strong tropical storm), the fourth level (typhoon), the fifth level (strong typhoon) and the sixth level (super typhoon) according to the strength grades of the typhoons from weak to strong. The area under the buffer is defined as the typhoon influence area under different intensity levels.
Step S12: and acquiring the correlation between the typhoon intensity level and the typhoon disaster-bearing body in the typhoon influence area.
The disaster damage caused by typhoons with different intensity levels is statistically regular, that is, the damage caused by typhoons with the same intensity level is within a relatively stable range, that is, a certain number of typhoon intensity levels have statistically common correlation with the damage. In this step of this embodiment, historical disaster data is used for analysis.
Step S13: constructing loss rate curves of various elements of the typhoon under different strength grades based on the correlation relationship, wherein the loss rate curves comprise the following steps: calculating the loss rate of each typhoon disaster-bearing body and the average loss quantity caused by typhoons under different intensity levels, and constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoons under different intensity levels.
Specifically, the loss caused by the typhoon disaster is multifaceted and can be measured by different standards, and in this embodiment, the disaster-bearing body of the typhoon disaster includes: population, economy, farmland, housing; the evaluation indexes of the farmland comprise: the disaster area of crops and the dead area of crops; the evaluation indexes of the population include: disaster-stricken population, dead population, injured population, emergency population; the evaluation indexes of the house include: collapsing the house; economic evaluation indexes include: direct economic loss.
Calculating the loss rate of each disaster bearing body based on the following formula:
Figure 634743DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
（2）
in the formula (2), the reaction mixture is,
Figure 160403DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
ilthe loss rate of the ith disaster-bearing body L, LilThe loss amount of the ith kind of disaster bearing body l of each typhoon, EiThe exposure of the ith disaster-bearing body.
The loss amount is mainly disaster statistics and can be from statistics of social and economic losses caused by typhoon disasters of related departments.E i Is as followsiThe exposure of the disaster bearing body can be counted by a statistical department, such as population number, GDP, house number and crop planting area of different areas of the disaster occurrence year.
Step S2: and establishing loss standards of the typhoons under different strength levels based on the loss rate curves of the elements, and evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the loss standards.
Specifically, fig. 3 is a flowchart of step S2 of the method for assessing risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to the embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 2, step S2 includes:
step S21: on the basis of the loss standard, combining a typhoon disaster mechanism and a disaster damage curve of disaster data to construct a vulnerability curve of a typhoon disaster bearing body:
Figure 285222DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
（3）
in the formula (3), V is the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body of the i grade; x is i typhoon grade; it should be noted that the exponential function is a vulnerability curve of the typhoon disaster-bearing body.
The vulnerability curve of the typhoon disaster bearing body can be the loss rate of the typhoon disaster bearing bodyv il Corresponding typhoon disaster danger PijAnd fitting to obtain. And calculating the loss rate of each disaster bearing body of the typhoon disaster based on a disaster bearing body loss rate formula through typhoon disaster loss mechanism analysis, and constructing a relation curve between the typhoon disaster and each loss rate by combining the typhoon disaster risk. The disaster damage rate caused by typhoons with certain intensity levels is within a stable range, so that the typhoons with certain intensity can cause a certain proportion of damage to disaster-bearing bodies, namely a typhoon disaster damage rate curve combining the disaster risk level and the damage rate. For example, a population disaster rate curve is shown in fig. 6. Through previous researches, the typhoon disasters with different strength grades and the disaster-bearing body loss rate have obvious exponential positive correlation, and the fact that the disaster-bearing body loss rate exponentially increases with the increase of the typhoon strength shows that the stronger the typhoon, the higher the loss rateHigh. Generally, the vulnerability curve adopts an exponential function with the base number of euler number e, and the parameters a and b are constants in the exponential function. Taking fig. 6 as an example, a =2.0689 and b = 0.4731.
Step S22: and quantitatively evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the vulnerability curve, and analyzing the spatial pattern of the typhoon disaster-bearing body by adopting ArcGIS software.
Step S3: and meanwhile, the risk of typhoon occurrence under different strength levels is evaluated based on the typhoon path data.
Specifically, fig. 4 is a flowchart of step S3 of the method for assessing risk of a multi-level typhoon disaster according to the embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 4, step S3 includes:
step S31: calculating the landing frequency of typhoon in each typhoon influence area based on the spatial pattern analysis of ArcGIS software; and acquiring the total length of the typhoon path under different intensity levels in each typhoon influence area.
Specifically, firstly, typhoon path data of landing and typhoon affected areas are obtained, typhoons of first class (strong heat zone storm), second class (typhoon), third class (strong typhoon) and fourth class (super strong typhoon) are respectively extracted, buffer areas with the radius of 75km, 100km, 125km and 150km are respectively made according to the strength grade of the typhoons from weak to strong, and the areas covered by the buffer areas are the typhoon affected areas. And calculating the landing frequency of typhoons in each typhoon influence area under the spatial pattern analysis of ArcGIS software.
The cumulative length of the typhoon path in each typhoon-affected area is another index reflecting the risk of typhoon occurrence, and therefore the total length of the typhoon path at different intensity levels in each typhoon-affected area needs to be obtained. For example, based on the spatial pattern analysis of the ArcGIS software, the lengths of the paths of the first typhoon, the second typhoon, the third typhoon and the fourth typhoon are calculated according to different typhoon influence areas, so that the total length of the typhoon path of each typhoon influence area is obtained.
Step S32: after normalization processing is carried out on the login frequency and the total length of the typhoon path, the typhoon risk under different intensity levels is evaluated.
The typhoon risk assessment needs to integrate two indexes of the typhoon landing frequency and the sum of the experienced path length, but the two indexes are not unified in dimension, so that the landing frequency and the total length of the typhoon path need to be normalized.
Specifically, the normalization processing is performed according to equations (4) and (5):
Figure 314358DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
（4）
Figure 882743DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
（5）
and then carrying out equal weight summation on the typhoon occurrence risks under different intensity levels according to the following formula (6) so as to evaluate the typhoon occurrence risks under different intensity levels:
Figure 380851DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
（6）
in the formulae (4), (5) and (6), αijAnd betaijRespectively representing the landing frequency number of an i-level typhoon landing j area and a typhoon path total length normalization index; xijAnd YijRepresenting the i-level typhoon landing frequency and the total length of a typhoon path in a j area; ximin(Ximax) And Yimin(Yimax) Representing the minimum (multiple) frequency number and the shortest (long) total path length, P, of the i-level typhoon landingijThe risk of logging in the j area for typhoon of the i level.
Step S33: constructing a typhoon disaster social and economic risk quantitative evaluation model to obtain a typhoon disaster risk evaluation result:
Figure 794515DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
（7）
Figure 678158DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
（8）
in the formulae (7) and (8), RijI-level typhoon disaster risks in j area; diThe damage degree of the typhoon disaster is i grade; ejThe exposure of disaster-bearing bodies in the j area; pijThe risk of i-level typhoon disasters in the j area; vijThe vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body of the j-area i-level typhoon disaster is shown.
According to the method, the relationship between the typhoon disaster risk level and the loss rate of each disaster bearing body is analyzed, so that a better correlation exists between the typhoon disaster risk level and the loss rate of each disaster bearing body, and further, the quantitative relationship between the typhoon disaster risk level and the loss rate of each disaster bearing body, namely a vulnerability curve, is determined. Degree of damage from typhoon disastersD i The method reflects the standard of the damage of the disaster-bearing body caused by the typhoons with different strength grades, and the damage rates of the disaster-bearing body of the typhoons with first class, second class, third class, fourth class and the like obtained on the basis of the vulnerability curve are used as the damage standard of each index of the disaster-bearing body of the typhoon disaster with the corresponding strength grade.E j The disaster-bearing body exposure is reflected, and is statistical data of the current year of population, GDP, cultivated land and house number of each administrative unit in the evaluation area or scene data under future climate change.
Preferred embodiments: typhoon disaster social and economic risk quantitative evaluation
The typhoon disaster risk assessment reflects the possible loss of the regional disaster-bearing body under a certain dangerous disaster event, and the loss can be measured in an absolute quantitative form and can also be distinguished by relative grades.
Fig. 5 is a technical route diagram of a multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 5, in the preferred embodiment of the present invention, based on analyzing vulnerability of a typhoon disaster receiver and typhoon occurrence risk, detailed quantitative typhoon disaster risk assessment is performed on four disaster receivers, i.e., crops, population, houses and economy, caused by first-class typhoons, second-class typhoons, third-class typhoons and fourth-class typhoons. The four disaster-bearing crops, population, houses and economy comprise eight influencing factors: crops (crop disaster area records, crop loss area records), population (disaster population records, death population records, injury population records, emergency placement population records), houses (collapsed house records), and economics (direct economic loss data records).
Three risk elements: in the typhoon disaster loss standard, the typhoon disaster body exposure and the typhoon disaster occurrence probability, the model is quantitatively evaluated according to the social and economic risks of the typhoon disaster: and (7) calculating the typhoon disaster loss standard and the typhoon disaster body exposure to obtain the typhoon disaster risk quantitative evaluation and grading results of different grades. And finally obtaining the optimal precautionary measure.
The invention aims to protect a multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method, which comprises the following steps: constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoon under different strength grades according to the typhoon strength grade and the typhoon disaster-bearing body; establishing typhoon loss standards under different strength levels based on the loss rate curves of the elements; the vulnerability of a typhoon disaster-bearing body is evaluated based on a loss standard, and meanwhile, the risk of typhoon occurrence under different strength levels is evaluated based on typhoon path data. Therefore, the risk assessment of the invention is to simulate the loss risk possibly faced by disaster-bearing bodies under typhoons with different intensity levels by taking cultivated land, population, house and GDP data as reference exposure on the basis of constructing the typhoon disaster loss standard. The method has the advantages that the occurrence risk of the typhoon disaster is analyzed, and meanwhile, the vulnerability of a typhoon disaster bearing body is combined, so that the quantitative evaluation of the typhoon disaster risk is realized.
It is to be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely illustrative of or explaining the principles of the invention and are not to be construed as limiting the invention. Therefore, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and the like made without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention. Further, it is intended that the appended claims cover all such variations and modifications as fall within the scope and boundaries of the appended claims or the equivalents of such scope and boundaries.

Claims (5)

1. A multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoon under different strength grades according to the typhoon strength grade and the typhoon disaster-bearing body;
establishing loss standards of typhoons under different strength levels based on the loss rate curves of the elements, and evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the loss standards;
meanwhile, the risk of typhoon occurrence under different intensity levels is evaluated based on typhoon path data; wherein
The method for constructing the loss rate curve of each element of the typhoon under different strength grades according to the typhoon strength grade and the typhoon disaster-bearing body comprises the following steps:
obtaining buffer areas of typhoons under different intensity levels according to the buffer radius of the typhoon intensity levels, wherein the areas covered by the buffer areas are defined as typhoon influence areas under different intensity levels;
acquiring a correlation between the typhoon intensity level and the typhoon disaster-bearing body in the typhoon influence area;
constructing loss rate curves of all elements of the typhoon under different strength grades based on the correlation;
evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the loss criterion comprises:
on the basis of the loss standard, combining a typhoon disaster mechanism and a disaster damage curve of disaster data, and constructing a vulnerability curve of the typhoon disaster bearing body according to the following formula:
V＝a*eb*X
wherein V is a vulnerability curve of a typhoon disaster-bearing body; x is typhoon grade; a. b is a constant in an exponential function;
quantitatively evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the vulnerability curve, and analyzing the spatial pattern of the typhoon disaster-bearing body by adopting ArcGIS software;
meanwhile, the method for evaluating the typhoon occurrence risk under different strength levels based on the typhoon path data comprises the following steps:
calculating the landing frequency of typhoon in each typhoon influence area based on the spatial pattern analysis of ArcGIS software;
acquiring the total length of a typhoon path under different intensity levels in each typhoon influence area;
after normalization processing is carried out on the login frequency and the total length of the typhoon path, the risk of typhoon occurrence under different intensity levels is evaluated;
after normalization processing is carried out on the login frequency and the total length of the typhoon path, the evaluation on the typhoon occurrence risks under different intensity levels comprises the following steps:
firstly, normalizing the login frequency and the total length of the typhoon path according to the following two formulas:
Figure FDA0003320384120000021
Figure FDA0003320384120000022
and then carrying out equal weight summation on the typhoon occurrence risks under different intensity levels according to the following formula so as to evaluate the typhoon occurrence risks under different intensity levels:
Figure FDA0003320384120000023
in the formula, alphaijAnd betaijRespectively representing the landing frequency number of an i-level typhoon landing j area and a typhoon path total length normalization index; xijAnd YijRespectively representing the i-level typhoon landing frequency and the total length of a typhoon path in the j area; ximinAnd YiminRespectively representing the minimum frequency of i-level typhoon landing and the total length of the shortest path, XimaxAnd YimaxRespectively representing the maximum frequency and the total length of the longest path, P, of the i-level typhoon landingijThe risk of logging in the j area for typhoon of the i level.
2. The method for assessing risk of a multilevel typhoon disaster according to claim 1,
the typhoon disaster-bearing body comprises: population, economy, farmland, housing;
the evaluation index of the farmland comprises: the disaster area of crops and the dead area of crops;
the evaluation indexes of the population include: disaster-stricken population, dead population, injured population, emergency population;
the evaluation index of the house includes: collapsing the house;
the economic evaluation index includes: direct economic loss.
3. The method for assessing risk of a multilevel typhoon disaster according to claim 1, wherein the step of constructing a loss rate curve of each element of typhoon under different intensity levels based on the correlation comprises the following steps:
and calculating the loss rate of each typhoon disaster-bearing body and the average loss quantity caused by typhoons with different strength grades, and constructing a loss rate curve of each element of the typhoons with different strength grades.
4. The method for assessing risk of a multilevel typhoon disaster according to claim 3,
calculating the loss rate of each typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the following formula:
Figure FDA0003320384120000031
in the formula, vilThe loss rate of the ith disaster-bearing body L, LilThe loss amount of the evaluation index of the ith type disaster supporter l of each typhoon, EiThe exposure of the ith disaster-bearing body.
5. The method for assessing risk of a multilevel typhoon disaster according to claim 1,
evaluating the vulnerability of the typhoon disaster-bearing body based on the loss standard, evaluating the risk of typhoon occurrence under different strength grades based on the typhoon path data, and obtaining the evaluation result of the typhoon disaster risk under different strength grades further comprises:
calculating the following typhoon disaster social and economic risk quantitative evaluation model to obtain a typhoon disaster risk evaluation result:
Vij＝Di×Ej
Rij＝(Di×Ej)×Pij
in the formula, RijI-level typhoon disaster risks in j area; diThe damage degree of the typhoon disaster is i grade; ejThe exposure of disaster-bearing bodies in the j area; pijThe risk of i-level typhoon disasters in the j area; vijThe vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body of the j-area i-level typhoon disaster is shown.
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