JP2017084094A - Plan support device, supply chain management system, and plan support program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide, when a new incident occurs, information on correspondence to the past incident which is identical or similar to the new incident from a mid-and-long term point of view.SOLUTION: In a plan support device 101, an acquisition part 120 is configured to, when occurrence of an emergency order of a product A is detected by a detection part 110 as a new incident, acquire index data indicating height of a current demand of the product A from a storage part 180, and an extraction part 130 is configured to, when the height of the demand of the product A indicated by the acquired index data matches height of a demand of a product B at occurrence of an emergency order of the product B as the past incident, extract operation data concerning the emergency order of the product B from an operation database 131, and an output part 150 is configured to output content of an operation indicated by the extracted operation data.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a plan support apparatus, a supply chain management system, and a plan support program.

  Conventionally, appropriate incident response information corresponding to real-time fluctuations in the characteristics and status of target systems such as securities systems is automatically obtained and output by referring to and searching for known incident information. There is a management system (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2011-76161 A

  In a conventional management system, an object such as an error or failure of the target system that impedes provision of a service that satisfies a predetermined service level in the target system is handled as an incident. In response to such an incident, if the target system is restored, a clear effect is obtained that the target system can resume providing normal services.

  In a system that involves people and organizations with multiple values in a complex manner, such as a supply chain management system, responding to incidents such as urgent orders and order cancellations will have a positive and negative ripple effect. obtain. For example, suppose that an emergency order is taken to sell the safety stock after breaking it down. In that case, a positive effect of increasing sales can be expected in the short term, but in the medium and long term there may be a negative effect of increasing supply chain operational risk due to an imbalance in inventory balance. Therefore, unless the response to a known incident is evaluated not only from a short-term perspective but also from a medium- to long-term perspective, it cannot be determined whether the response should be helpful.

  An object of the present invention is to provide information on response to a past incident that is the same as or similar to the new incident from a medium- to long-term viewpoint when a new incident occurs.

A planning support apparatus according to an aspect of the present invention includes:
A plan support device that supports the planning of a quantity for each unit period,
A storage unit corresponding to at least one unit period, and storing in advance index data indicating an index value for planning a quantity required for the corresponding unit period;
A detection unit for detecting occurrence of an incident corresponding to one unit period and affecting a plan of quantity after the corresponding unit period;
When an occurrence of a new incident is detected by the detection unit, an acquisition unit that acquires index data indicating an index value of a unit period following a unit period corresponding to the new incident from the storage unit;
For a plurality of past incidents, it is executed to adjust the plan of each quantity of a first period that is a unit period to which each incident corresponds and a second period that is at least one unit period following the first period. An extraction unit that searches an operation database that stores operation data indicating the contents of the operation and the index value of the second period, and extracts operation data that matches the index data acquired by the acquisition unit When,
An output unit that outputs the contents of the operation indicated by the operation data extracted by the extraction unit.

A first plan that is a plan of the quantity of the second period adjusted by each operation before the first period has elapsed for the operations executed for the plurality of past incidents, and the passage of the first period Reference is made to an evaluation target database that accumulates evaluation target data indicating a second plan that is a quantity plan of the second period that has been readjusted later, and each operation is compared with the first plan and the second plan. It further includes an evaluation unit that evaluates based on the result,
The output unit outputs the evaluation result of the corresponding operation in the evaluation unit together with the contents of the operation indicated by the operation data extracted by the extraction unit.

  The second plan is a plan for the quantity determined in the second period.

  The evaluation unit adjusts each operation not only by the comparison result between the first plan and the second plan, but also by the operation before the lapse of the first period and the actual quantity of the first period. Evaluation is also made based on a comparison result with the plan of the quantity in the first period.

  Operation data indicating the index value indicated by the index data acquired by the acquisition unit and the content of the input operation for the new incident upon receiving the input of the content of the operation executed for the new incident And a registration unit for registering the created operation data in the operation database.

The quantity planned for each unit period includes the inventory of products handled in the supply chain,
The index value indicated by the index data stored in the storage unit and the operation data stored in the operation database includes a value indicating the level of demand for the product.

A supply chain management system according to an aspect of the present invention includes:
The planning support device;
A system for storing plan data indicating a plan of the stock quantity of the product and causing the plan support apparatus to use the plan data.

A planning support program according to an aspect of the present invention is provided.
A planning support program that supports the planning of quantities per unit period,
In a computer provided with a storage unit corresponding to at least one unit period and storing in advance index data indicating an index value for planning a quantity required for the corresponding unit period,
A process for detecting the occurrence of an incident corresponding to one unit period and affecting the planning of the quantity after the corresponding unit period;
When the occurrence of a new incident is detected, a process of acquiring index data indicating an index value of a unit period following the unit period corresponding to the new incident from the storage unit;
For a plurality of past incidents, it is executed to adjust the plan of each quantity of a first period that is a unit period to which each incident corresponds and a second period that is at least one unit period following the first period. A process of searching an operation database for storing operation data indicating the content of the operation and the index value of the second period, and extracting operation data whose index value matches the index data acquired from the storage unit; ,
And a process for outputting the contents of the operation indicated by the extracted operation data.

  In the present invention, when a new incident occurs, a response to a past incident is searched for using an index value for planning a quantity required in the future as compared with a unit period corresponding to the new incident. . For this reason, according to the present invention, it is possible to provide information on correspondence to past incidents that are the same as or similar to new incidents from a medium- to long-term viewpoint.

1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a supply chain management system according to Embodiment 1. FIG. A table showing examples of changing incident response according to environmental conditions. A table showing examples of operations determined from short-term and medium- to long-term perspectives. FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration of the plan support apparatus according to the first embodiment. 5 is a flowchart showing the operation of the plan support apparatus according to the first embodiment. A table showing an example of operation data. The figure which shows the example in which the plan of inventory quantity is reviewed, and the table | surface which shows the example of evaluation object data. The graph which shows the example by which the plan of inventory quantity is reviewed. The figure which shows the example by which the past operation is evaluated. The figure which shows the example by which the past operation is evaluated. The figure which shows the example in which a new operation is determined based on the content and evaluation result of the past operation.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In addition, the same code | symbol is attached | subjected to the part which is the same or it corresponds in each figure. In the description of the embodiments, the description of the same or corresponding parts will be omitted or simplified as appropriate.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
The configuration of the system according to the present embodiment, the operation of the apparatus provided in the system according to the present embodiment, and the effects of the present embodiment will be described in order.

*** Explanation of configuration ***
With reference to FIG. 1, the structure of the supply chain management system 100 which is a system based on this Embodiment is demonstrated.

  The supply chain management system 100 includes a plan support apparatus 101, a backbone system 102, and an SC planning system 103. SC is an abbreviation for supply chain.

  The plan support apparatus 101 is an apparatus that supports the planning of quantities for each unit period. In the present embodiment, the quantity planned for each unit period includes the inventory quantity of products handled in the supply chain. In addition, a unit period that is a quantity planning cycle is a week. That is, the plan support apparatus 101 is an apparatus that supports the plan of the inventory quantity for each week. Note that the quantity planned for each unit period may include not only the inventory quantity of products handled in the supply chain but also at least one of the purchase quantity, production quantity, sales quantity, and shipment quantity of the product. . Further, the quantity planning cycle is not limited to a week, but may be a day, a month, or the like. Further, the quantity may be counted not only for a single product but also for a plurality of products (for example, products included in one product group). Furthermore, the quantity is not limited to a physical quantity such as the number and the number of lots, but may be an amount or the like. When the quantity is planned as an amount, “amount = unit price × exchange rate” or “amount = unit price × quantity × exchange rate” is set. Thereby, a sudden change in the exchange rate can be considered as an incident.

  The backbone system 102 is a system that stores the transaction data 201 and the result data 202 and causes the plan support apparatus 101 to use it, and specifically, is an ERP (Enterprise, Resource, and Planning) system. The transaction data 201 includes data related to orders, purchases, factory operating conditions, and the like. The actual data 202 includes sales, production, inventory, and the like. Sales performance data 202 is data indicating the sales volume of products handled in the supply chain. The production data 202 relating to production is data indicating the production volume of the product. The actual data 202 relating to the stock is data indicating the actual stock quantity of the product. Note that the core system 102 may cause the plan support apparatus 101 to use only the result data 202.

  The SC planning system 103 is a system that stores the plan data 301 and causes the plan support apparatus 101 to use it. The plan data 301 includes sales, production, inventory, and the like. The sales plan data 301 is data indicating a plan for the sales volume of products handled in the supply chain. The production plan data 301 is data indicating a production plan of the product. The plan data 301 relating to stock is data indicating a plan for the stock amount of the product.

  In the backbone system 102, an incident detection agent 211, which is a program, is operating. Similarly, in the SC planning system 103, an incident detection agent 311 that is a program is operating. Incident detection agents 211 and 311 detect the occurrence of an incident.

  Here, the incident will be described.

Incidents are events that require immediate action, regardless of the supply chain planning cycle, such as the inventory planning cycle. Incidents include the following.
・ Emergency orders by customers: Orders with shorter delivery times than supply LT (Lead / Time), shortage in safety stock ・ Changes in delivery dates by customers: Changes ahead of supply LT, significant delays ・ Order cancellations by customers: Mass cancellation, Cancellation immediately before delivery date ・ Operation stop of factory or specified line: Disaster, critical equipment failure, shortage of personnel, etc. ・ Production capacity decline of factory or specific line: Disaster, critical equipment failure, shortage of staff, etc. ・ Quality defect occurrence ・ Unplanned production Execution, missing key parts or significant delay in delivery

  Incident response needs to be determined not only from a short-term perspective, but also from a medium- to long-term perspective. Otherwise, as described above, responding to an incident may have a positive effect in the short term, but may have a negative effect in the medium to long term. In order to obtain a positive effect in the medium to long term, it is necessary to plan the inventory required in the future or review the plan to optimize the inventory. In other words, it is necessary to maintain the inventory within the range of the planned inventory quantity required in the future and bring it closer to the appropriate level as much as possible. Indicators for planning future inventory requirements include environmental conditions such as demand trends, factory utilization, customer characteristics, regional characteristics, and disaster risk.

  When an incident occurs, as shown in Fig. 2, by changing the response to the incident according to the environmental conditions at the time of the incident, it is possible to optimize inventory and reduce future supply chain operational risks Can do. As a specific example, it is assumed that an urgent order for a certain product has occurred. In that case, if the demand for the product is high, it is possible to cope with an emergency increase of the product in preparation for an increase in the inventory amount of the product required in the future. On the other hand, if the demand for the product is low, it is possible to respond to an urgent order by shipment of a safety stock, but rather to reduce production or prepare for production reduction. The demand is aggregated with the product category, region, customer attributes, etc. as the aggregation axis.

  Thus, if the response to the incident is determined in consideration of the environmental conditions, not only a positive effect can be obtained in the short term, but also the possibility that a positive effect can be obtained in the medium to long term is increased. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the plan support apparatus 101 accumulates information regarding the correspondence determined in consideration of the environmental conditions when each incident occurs with respect to past incidents, along with the environmental conditions. Then, when a response to a new incident is considered, the plan support apparatus 101 searches for information related to a response determined for a past incident that has the same environmental conditions as the new incident. As a result, the SC manager can execute an operation that has a positive effect in the short term and the medium to long term with reference to the response to the past incident.

  Here, the operation will be described.

  An operation is a response to an incident. Specifically, it is an instruction and a plan. The operation consists of a measure for directly dealing with an incident and a measure for returning to a steady state before the incident occurs. The former measure is determined taking into account the priorities of the most recent production, shipment, etc. scheduled before the occurrence of the incident. However, an unconditional or top priority response is desirable for incidents involving important customers or strategic sales products. The latter measure is determined taking into account environmental conditions.

  When an incident occurs, as shown in Fig. 3, measures to deal directly with the incident are determined according to the priority of the most recent production, shipment, etc. scheduled before the incident occurs, that is, from a short-term perspective. Is done. Further, a measure for returning to the steady state before the occurrence of the incident is determined according to environmental conditions, that is, from a medium- to long-term viewpoint. This makes it possible to optimize inventory and reduce future supply chain operation risks. As a specific example, it is assumed that an urgent order for a certain product has occurred. In that case, from a short-term viewpoint, a measure of releasing safety stock and shipping is determined. If the demand for the product is high, a measure to preferentially perform supplementary production of the product is determined from a medium- to long-term viewpoint. In addition, when there is a demand exceeding the production capacity within the unit period of the factory, it may be dealt with by producing the product ahead of schedule and building up inventory. In addition, inventory may be accumulated as a countermeasure for risks such as productivity, availability, quality, etc., that is, a risk that products cannot be produced as planned. In addition, in order to produce a leveled demand fluctuation (for reasons such as cost reduction), the resulting increase or decrease in inventory may be allowed.

  With reference to FIG.1 and FIG.4, the structure of the plan assistance apparatus 101 is demonstrated.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the planning support apparatus 101 includes a detection unit 110, an acquisition unit 120, an extraction unit 130, a search unit 140, an output unit 150, a registration unit 160, an evaluation unit 170, and a storage unit. 180. The plan support apparatus 101 also includes an incident database 111, an operation database 131, and an evaluation target database 171. The incident database 111, the operation database 131, and the evaluation target database 171 may be provided outside the planning support apparatus 101.

  In the present embodiment, the plan support apparatus 101 is a computer. The function of the plan support apparatus 101 is realized by software. As illustrated in FIG. 4, the plan support apparatus 101 includes hardware such as a processor 901, an auxiliary storage device 902, a memory 903, a communication device 904, an input device 905, and a display 906. The processor 901 is connected to other hardware via a signal line, and controls these other hardware.

  The processor 901 is an IC (Integrated Circuit) that performs processing. Specifically, the processor 901 is a CPU (Central Processing Unit).

  Specifically, the auxiliary storage device 902 is a ROM (Read / Only / Memory), a flash memory, or an HDD (Hard / Disk / Drive). Specifically, the memory 903 is a RAM (Random Access Memory). The storage unit 180 is realized by the memory 903. The incident database 111, the operation database 131, and the evaluation target database 171 are realized by the memory 903 or a combination of the auxiliary storage device 902 and the memory 903.

  The communication device 904 includes a receiver 911 that receives data and a transmitter 912 that transmits data. Specifically, the communication device 904 is a communication chip or a NIC (Network, Interface, Card).

  Specifically, the input device 905 is a mouse, a keyboard, or a touch panel.

  The display 906 is specifically an LCD (Liquid / Crystal / Display).

  The auxiliary storage device 902 stores a program that realizes the function of “unit” such as the detection unit 110, the acquisition unit 120, the extraction unit 130, the search unit 140, the output unit 150, the registration unit 160, and the evaluation unit 170. This program is loaded into the memory 903, read into the processor 901, and executed by the processor 901. The auxiliary storage device 902 also stores an OS (Operating System). At least a part of the OS is loaded into the memory 903, and the processor 901 executes a program that realizes the function of “unit” while executing the OS.

  The plan support apparatus 101 may include only one processor 901 or may include a plurality of processors 901. A plurality of processors 901 may execute a program for realizing the function of “unit” in cooperation with each other.

  Information, data, signal values, and variable values indicating the results of the processing of “unit” are stored in the auxiliary storage device 902, the memory 903, or a register or cache memory in the processor 901.

  A program for realizing the function of “part” may be stored in a portable recording medium such as a magnetic disk, a flexible disk, an optical disk, a compact disk, a Blu-ray (registered trademark) disk, a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc), or the like.

*** Explanation of operation ***
With reference to FIG.1 and FIG.5, operation | movement of the plan assistance apparatus 101 is demonstrated. The operation of the plan support apparatus 101 corresponds to the plan support method according to the present embodiment. The operation of the plan support apparatus 101 corresponds to the processing procedure of the plan support program according to the present embodiment.

  The storage unit 180 stores the index data 181 in advance. The index data 181 corresponds to at least one unit period, and is data indicating an index value for planning a quantity necessary for the corresponding unit period. Specifically, the index data 181 is data indicating an index value representing the current environmental condition. The current environmental conditions serve as an index value for planning the inventory quantity required for at least one week after the most recent week from the present time point. That is, the index data 181 corresponds to at least one week following the next week, and is data indicating an index value for planning an inventory amount necessary for the corresponding week. In the present embodiment, the index value indicated by the index data 181 includes a value indicating the level of product demand. As this value, it is desirable that different values are included depending on the product category, region, customer attribute, and the like. As a specific example, the current demand for the product A is evaluated in three stages, and is expressed by numerical values such as “1”, “2”, and “3” in descending order of demand. Alternatively, the current demand for the product A is “1” (corresponding to an upward arrow in FIG. 2) if the demand trend is increasing, or “2” (“−” in FIG. 2) if the demand trend is constant. Equivalent), if the demand trend is decreasing, it is represented by a numerical value such as “3” (corresponding to a downward arrow in FIG. 2). At this time, if the current demand for the product A is “1”, that is, if the demand trend is an increasing trend, it may be planned to increase the inventory amount of the product A necessary after the next week. On the other hand, if the current demand for the product A is “3”, that is, if the demand trend is decreasing, the inventory amount of the product A required after the next week may be reduced. In the present embodiment, it is assumed that the demand is high, the demand trend is increasing, the demand is low, and the demand trend is decreasing is the same. Note that the index value indicated by the index data 181 may include values representing other environmental conditions as described above, such as factory operation rate, customer characteristics, regional characteristics, disaster risk, and the like.

  In step S11 of FIG. 5, the detection unit 110 detects the occurrence of an incident. An incident is an event that corresponds to one unit period and affects the planning of quantities after the corresponding unit period. Specifically, an incident is an event that corresponds to the week immediately after the occurrence and affects the planning of inventory after the corresponding week. As a specific example, when an urgent order for product A occurs, it is necessary to collect surplus inventory at each site at the time of occurrence or to release the safety stock, and to plan the inventory amount of product A from the next week onward. The urgent order falls into an incident because it needs to be reviewed.

  In the present embodiment, when any of the incident detection agent 211 operating in the backbone system 102 and the incident detection agent 311 operating in the SC planning system 103 detects the occurrence of an incident, Information is transmitted to the detection unit 110. The detection unit 110 receives this information to detect the occurrence of an incident. The detection unit 110 creates incident data 112 from the received information, and registers the created incident data 112 in the incident database 111.

  Although not shown, the incident data 112 is data indicating an incident ID (identifier) for identifying each incident, an occurrence date of each incident, a type of each incident, and the like. The incident ID is numbered by the detection unit 110 every time the occurrence of a new incident is detected. As mentioned above, the types of incidents include emergency orders, delivery date changes, order cancellations, shutdowns, production capacity declines, quality defects, unplanned production executions, key parts shortages, or significant delivery delays. is there. It should be noted that the aforementioned criteria for “short delivery date”, “significant”, “large amount”, and “immediately before delivery date” are determined in advance by a threshold, and the incident detection agents 211 and 311 or the detection unit 110 use this threshold. Determine whether an incident has occurred and the type of incident.

  In step S12 of FIG. 5, when the occurrence of a new incident is detected by the detection unit 110, the acquisition unit 120 stores index data 181 indicating an index value of a unit period following the unit period to which the new incident corresponds. Acquired from the unit 180. Specifically, the acquisition unit 120 acquires, from the storage unit 180, the index data 181 indicating the environmental condition at the time of occurrence of the incident whose occurrence is detected in step S11, that is, the index value indicating the current environmental condition. As a specific example, the acquisition unit 120 acquires index data 181 indicating the level of demand for the product A from the storage unit 180 when the occurrence of an emergency order for the product A is detected by the detection unit 110.

  The operation database 131 stores operation data 132. The operation data 132 is a plan for each quantity of a plurality of past incidents, that is, a first period P1 that is a unit period corresponding to each incident and a second period P2 that is at least one unit period following the first period P1. Is the data indicating the content of the operation executed to adjust the value and the index value of the second period P2. Specifically, the first period P1 is a week immediately after the occurrence of the corresponding incident. Specifically, the second period P2 is at least one week following the week immediately after the occurrence of the corresponding incident. In the present embodiment, the index value indicated by the operation data 132 includes a value indicating the level of demand for the product, similarly to the index value indicated by the index data 181. As a specific example, the operation data 132 performs the measure M1 for the emergency order of the product B generated on a certain day and releasing the safety stock, which is executed for the emergency order, and the supplementary production of the product B. The measure M2 and the index value indicating the demand for the product B at the time of occurrence of the emergency order. The measure M1 is for adjusting the inventory plan of the product B in the first period P1, which is the week following the week including the date of occurrence of the emergency order. The measure M2 is for adjusting the inventory plan of the product B in the second period P2, which is at least one week following the first period P1. The index value indicated by the operation data 132 includes values representing other environmental conditions as described above, such as the factory operation rate, customer characteristics, regional characteristics, disaster risk, etc., similar to the index values indicated by the index data 181. It may be included.

  In the present embodiment, as illustrated in FIG. 6, the operation data 132 includes the incident ID of each incident, the date of occurrence of each incident, the type of each incident, the environmental condition at the time of occurrence of each incident, and each incident. The data indicates the contents of the executed operation. As the environmental condition, at least an index value indicating the height of demand is shown. As the contents of the operation, an operation text that represents the outline of the measure, a response system that is the target of the measure, and an operation log that represents the specific content of the measure are shown. The first and second lines in FIG. 6 indicate “stock transfer instruction (by stock base)” and details are omitted. For example, if the stock is transferred to the C base, “Inventory transfer instruction to C base” and “Inventory transfer instruction from B base to C base” are shown.

  In step S <b> 13 of FIG. 5, the extraction unit 130 searches the operation database 131 and extracts operation data 132 whose index value matches the index data 181 acquired by the acquisition unit 120. As a specific example, the extraction unit 130 matches the high demand for the product A indicated by the index data 181 acquired in step S12 with the high demand for the product B at the time when the emergency order for the product B described above occurs. Then, operation data 132 for the emergency order of the product B is extracted. In addition, if there is other operation data 132 in which the height of demand of the product A indicated by the index data 181 acquired in step S12 matches the height of demand, the extraction unit 130 also extracts the other operation data 132. . The extraction unit 130 may extract the operation data 132 for the urgent order of the product B only when the product A and the product B belong to the same product category. In addition, the extraction unit 130 may extract the operation data 132 for the emergency order of the product B only when not only high demand but also other environmental conditions match.

  The evaluation target database 171 stores evaluation target data 172. The evaluation target data 172 includes a first plan S1 that is a plan of the quantity of the second period P2 adjusted by each operation before the first period P1 has elapsed for the operations executed for a plurality of past incidents; It is data which shows 2nd plan S2 which is the plan of the quantity of the 2nd period P2 readjusted after progress of 1st period P1. Specifically, the first plan S1 is a plan for the inventory amount in the second period P2 that is first adjusted by each operation. Specifically, the second plan S2 is a plan for the inventory amount of the second period P2 adjusted last. That is, the second plan S2 is a plan for the stock amount in the second period P2 that has been confirmed. As a specific example, the first plan S1 for the operation executed for the emergency order of the product B described above is a plan for the inventory amount of the product B in the second period P2 adjusted immediately after the occurrence of the emergency order. . And 2nd plan S2 is a plan of the stock quantity of the product B of the 2nd period P2 finally decided.

  In the present embodiment, as illustrated in FIG. 7, the inventory plan is adjusted every week. As a specific example, it is assumed that the plan from the nth week to the (n + 6) th week is adjusted in the (n-1) th week. In this case, the plan for the nth week is confirmed, and the plan for the (n + 1) th week to the (n + 6) th week is adjusted in the nth week. As a result, the plan for the (n + 1) th week is also confirmed, and the plan for the (n + 2) th week to the (n + 6) th week is adjusted in the (n + 1) th week. Eventually, in the (n + 5) week, the plan from the nth week to the (n + 6) week is confirmed. Assuming that the urgent order for the product B is generated in the (n-1) week, the first plan S1 is a plan adjusted in the (n-1) week, so in the first plan S1, Only the plan for week n has been finalized. The second plan S2 is a plan adjusted in the (n + 5) week, and in the second plan S2, the plans from the nth week to the (n + 6) week are already confirmed. That is, the nth week corresponds to the first period P1, and the (n + 1) th week to the (n + 6) th week correspond to the second period P2.

  In the evaluation object data 172, as described above, the plan adjusted for each week is recorded, and the results for each week are also recorded.

  In step S17 of FIG. 5, the evaluation unit 170 acquires the plan data 301 from the SC planning system 103, and converts the acquired plan data 301 into a format illustrated in FIG. Further, the evaluation unit 170 acquires the record data 202 from the core system 102, and converts the acquired record data 202 into a format illustrated in FIG. As a result, the evaluation unit 170 creates the evaluation target data 172 and registers it in the evaluation target database 171.

  The evaluation unit 170 further refers to the evaluation target database 171 and evaluates each operation based on the comparison result between the first plan S1 and the second plan S2. In the present embodiment, the evaluation unit 170 performs each operation not only on the comparison result between the first plan S1 and the second plan S2, but also on the actual results of the quantity in the first period P1 and the passage of the first period P1. Evaluation is also made based on a comparison result with the plan of the quantity of the first period P1 adjusted by the operation. That is, the evaluation unit 170 evaluates the difference in performance with respect to the plan for the first period P1 which is a unit period immediately after the occurrence of the incident, and the second period P2 following the first period P1 Evaluate the differences. Thereby, it is possible to appropriately evaluate the effect of the operation from the short-term viewpoint and the effect of the operation from the medium- and long-term viewpoint.

  As illustrated in FIG. 8, when the plan immediately after the occurrence of the incident is different from the periodic review plan, it can be determined that there is a problem in the plan immediately after the occurrence of the incident. In addition, when the plan immediately after the occurrence of an incident is different from the actual result, it may be caused by the occurrence of another incident, and appropriate evaluation is difficult. Therefore, in this embodiment, the evaluation unit 170 evaluates the difference in the review plan with respect to the initial plan. Specifically, as illustrated in FIG. 9, the evaluation unit 170 monitors the change in the evaluation index after the incident occurs, and determines that it is “effect” if there is a “deviation” exceeding the threshold in terms of period, quantity, etc. . There are positive and negative effects.

  As described above, in the present embodiment, in order to appropriately evaluate the validity of the initial plan immediately after the occurrence of the incident, not the difference between the initial plan and the actual results, but the difference between the initial plan and the review plan is evaluated. This is because the actual results fluctuate for various reasons, so it cannot be determined whether the reason for the “divergence” between the original plan and the actual results is due to a plan problem or other problems. The “divergence” between the initial plan and the revised plan is because, apart from the reason, it is possible to judge that the plan has been revised, that is, the initial plan has problems and must be reviewed.

As illustrated in FIG. 10, the evaluation unit 170 numerically evaluates an operation on a time axis of short-term, medium-term, and long-term based on various evaluation indexes. The overall score that is the evaluation result is registered in the evaluation object database 171 as the evaluation data 173. Specific examples of the evaluation index include the following.
・ Financial: Sales / Operating Profit, Inventory / Activity Indicators: Amount / Quantity, Plan / Actual / Management: Delivery Date Compliance Rate, Stockout Rate, Inventory Turnover, Supply from Order to Delivery LT
・ Sales: Sales, Inventory, Purchasing ・ Production: Production, Production LT, Occupancy Rate ・ Inventory: Inventory Quantity, Inventory Turnover

  It is also desirable to make data and include it in the evaluation index even if the customer is thankful or the next order is confirmed.

  In this embodiment, sales, profit or cost, excess inventory risk, shortage risk, factory operation rate, and company-specific evaluation are used as evaluation indexes. Taking urgent orders as an example, an increase in sales has a positive effect, and a decline in the safety stock ratio has a negative effect.

  In addition, the process of step S17 is periodically performed separately from the flow from step S11 to step S16.

  In step S14 of FIG. 5, the search unit 140 searches the evaluation object database 171 and extracts evaluation data 173 corresponding to the same operation as the operation data 132 extracted by the extraction unit 130. As a specific example, the search unit 140 evaluates the operation result indicated by the operation data 132 extracted in step S13, that is, the operation executed for the urgent order of the product B described above in step S17. Evaluation data 173 indicating the result is extracted.

  In step S15 of FIG. 5, the output unit 150 outputs the operation content indicated by the operation data 132 extracted by the extraction unit 130. In the present embodiment, the output unit 150 outputs the evaluation result of the corresponding operation in the evaluation unit 170 together with the contents of the operation indicated by the operation data 132 extracted by the extraction unit 130.

  In the present embodiment, as illustrated in FIG. 11, the output unit 150 performs a total of the operations indicated by the operation data 132 extracted in step S13 and the operations indicated by the evaluation data 173 extracted in step S14. The score is displayed on the screen of the display 906. The SC administrator can examine and determine an operation to be executed for the incident whose occurrence is detected in step S11 while viewing this screen. On the screen, it is desirable that each operation is sorted and displayed according to the total score. It is also desirable that simulation can be executed on the screen. The SC administrator can determine a more appropriate operation by performing a simulation.

  In step S16 of FIG. 5, the registration unit 160 receives input of the contents of the operation executed for the new incident whose occurrence is detected in step S11 via the input device 905. Then, the registration unit 160 creates operation data 132 indicating the index value indicated by the index data 181 acquired by the acquisition unit 120 and the contents of the input operation for the new incident, and the generated operation data 132 is generated. Is registered in the operation database 131.

*** Explanation of the effect of the embodiment ***
In this embodiment, when a new incident occurs, the response to the past incident is searched using the index value for planning the quantity required in the future as compared to the unit period to which the new incident corresponds. Is done. Therefore, according to the present embodiment, when a new incident occurs, it is possible to refer to the response to a past incident that is the same as or similar to the new incident from a medium- to long-term viewpoint.

  In the present embodiment, it is possible to accumulate and evaluate the results of operations for known incidents, evaluate them based on a management policy, etc., and output information of optimum operations with priorities. This optimal operation includes short-term measures that directly respond to incidents and medium- and long-term measures that address issues and risks arising from short-term measures.

*** Other configurations ***
The plan support apparatus 101 is not limited to the supply chain management system 100, and may be provided in any system that can be involved in some quantity of plan and an incident that affects the plan may occur. That is, the plan support apparatus 101 is not limited to the plan for the inventory quantity, the sales quantity, the production quantity, etc. of the products handled in the supply chain, but may be an apparatus that supports planning of an arbitrary quantity for each unit period.

  In the present embodiment, the function of the plan support apparatus 101 is realized by software, but the function of the plan support apparatus 101 may be realized by hardware. Specifically, the plan support apparatus 101 may include a processing circuit that replaces the processor 901 and the memory 903 as hardware.

  The processing circuit is a dedicated electronic circuit that realizes the functions of the “unit” and the storage unit 180 described above. Specifically, the processing circuit is a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, a logic IC, a GA (Gate / Array), an ASIC (Application / Specific / Integrated / Circuit), or FPGA (Field-Programmable / Gate / Array).

  The functions of the “unit” and the storage unit 180 may be realized by one processing circuit, or may be realized by being distributed to a plurality of processing circuits.

  The function of the plan support apparatus 101 may be realized by a combination of software and hardware. That is, a part of the functions of the plan support apparatus 101 may be realized by dedicated hardware, and the remaining functions may be realized by software.

  The processor 901, the memory 903, and the processing circuit are collectively referred to as “processing circuit”. That is, regardless of the configuration of the plan support apparatus 101, the functions of the “unit” and the storage unit 180 are realized by the processing circuitry.

  “Part” may be read as “step” or “procedure” or “processing”. Further, the function of “unit” may be realized by firmware.

  As mentioned above, although embodiment of this invention was described, you may implement this embodiment partially. Specifically, only one of those described as “parts” in the description of this embodiment may be employed, or some arbitrary combinations may be employed. In addition, this invention is not limited to this embodiment, A various change is possible as needed.

  100 Supply Chain Management System, 101 Planning Support Device, 102 Core System, 103 SC Planning System, 110 Detection Unit, 111 Incident Database, 112 Incident Data, 120 Acquisition Unit, 130 Extraction Unit, 131 Operation Database, 132 Operation Data, 140 Search Part, 150 output part, 160 registration part, 170 evaluation part, 171 evaluation object database, 172 evaluation object data, 173 evaluation data, 180 storage part, 181 index data, 201 transaction data, 202 actual data, 211 incident detection agent, 301 Plan data, 311 Incident detection agent, 901 processor, 902 storage device, 903 memory, 905 input device, 906 Isupurei, 911 receiver, 912 transmitter.

Claims (8)

A plan support device that supports the planning of a quantity for each unit period,
A storage unit corresponding to at least one unit period, and storing in advance index data indicating an index value for planning a quantity required for the corresponding unit period;
A detection unit for detecting occurrence of an incident corresponding to one unit period and affecting a plan of quantity after the corresponding unit period;
When an occurrence of a new incident is detected by the detection unit, an acquisition unit that acquires index data indicating an index value of a unit period following a unit period corresponding to the new incident from the storage unit;
For a plurality of past incidents, it is executed to adjust the plan of each quantity of a first period that is a unit period to which each incident corresponds and a second period that is at least one unit period following the first period. An extraction unit that searches an operation database that stores operation data indicating the contents of the operation and the index value of the second period, and extracts operation data that matches the index data acquired by the acquisition unit When,
A plan support apparatus comprising: an output unit that outputs an operation content indicated by the operation data extracted by the extraction unit. A first plan that is a plan of the quantity of the second period adjusted by each operation before the first period has elapsed for the operations executed for the plurality of past incidents, and the passage of the first period Reference is made to an evaluation target database that accumulates evaluation target data indicating a second plan that is a quantity plan of the second period that has been readjusted later, and each operation is compared with the first plan and the second plan. It further includes an evaluation unit that evaluates based on the result,
The planning support apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the output unit outputs an evaluation result of the corresponding operation in the evaluation unit together with an operation content indicated by the operation data extracted by the extraction unit.   The plan support apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the second plan is a plan for a quantity determined in the second period.   The evaluation unit adjusts each operation not only by the comparison result between the first plan and the second plan, but also by the operation before the lapse of the first period and the actual quantity of the first period. The plan support apparatus according to claim 2 or 3, wherein the plan support apparatus performs the evaluation based on a comparison result with the plan of the quantity in the first period. Operation data indicating the index value indicated by the index data acquired by the acquisition unit and the content of the input operation for the new incident upon receiving the input of the content of the operation executed for the new incident The planning support apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a registration unit that creates the operation data and registers the created operation data in the operation database. The quantity planned for each unit period includes the inventory of products handled in the supply chain,
The index value indicated by the index data stored in the storage unit and the operation data stored in the operation database includes a value indicating the level of demand for the product. The planning support apparatus according to item 1. The planning support apparatus according to claim 6,
A supply chain management system comprising: a system for storing plan data indicating a plan of the inventory amount of the product and causing the plan support apparatus to use the plan data. A planning support program that supports the planning of quantities per unit period,
In a computer provided with a storage unit corresponding to at least one unit period and storing in advance index data indicating an index value for planning a quantity required for the corresponding unit period,
A process for detecting the occurrence of an incident corresponding to one unit period and affecting the planning of the quantity after the corresponding unit period;
When the occurrence of a new incident is detected, a process of acquiring index data indicating an index value of a unit period following the unit period corresponding to the new incident from the storage unit;
For a plurality of past incidents, it is executed to adjust the plan of each quantity of a first period that is a unit period to which each incident corresponds and a second period that is at least one unit period following the first period. A process of searching an operation database for storing operation data indicating the content of the operation and the index value of the second period, and extracting operation data whose index value matches the index data acquired from the storage unit; ,
A planning support program that executes a process of outputting the contents of the operation indicated by the extracted operation data.

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