JP2010176272A - Efficiency support method for supply chain - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an efficiency support method of a supply chain for preventing production delay due to the deficiency of materials and shipping delay due to the shortage of product inventory even when sales plan fluctuation which is larger than estimated sales fluctuation is generated, and for minimizing the disposal loss of products, materials, and raw materials when the lifetime of products ends, and the products are switched to the next term products. <P>SOLUTION: This efficiency support method of a supply chain includes: estimating sales fluctuation larger than estimation; performing simulation with a supply chain model based on demand prediction in the residual life cycle of products and the demand prediction of service parts for an after-service and various information in a supply chain reaching from a supplier to a customer; and calculating the number of safety inventory and delivery conditions of exclusive materials to prevent the deficiency of products from being generated, and to minimize the disposal loss of products and exclusive materials at an EOL(End Of Life) point of time. Furthermore, this efficiency support method includes: executing the simulation in every prescribed cycle and period on the life cycle of products. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2010,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention provides a supply chain efficiency that does not cause a product shortage even when a sales plan fluctuates in a product supply chain, and that can reduce waste loss that occurs at the end of product sales. It relates to a method to support

  By the time a product arrives at a customer, multiple operations from procurement of materials (hereinafter also referred to as parts) to delivery to the customer, for example, each operation such as material procurement, production, sales and logistics (hereinafter also referred to as departments) It exists and a series of business activities are performed through coordination of business activities in each business.

  The business is not always limited to one site, and is generally composed of a plurality of sites. For example, the sales department is often composed of a plurality of sales bases.

  It has been studied as an important problem to improve the efficiency (optimization) of such a series of business activities, that is, a so-called supply chain.

  When improving the efficiency of a supply chain where there are multiple operations, production information such as production volume and delivery date, procurement / production / distribution / sales, etc. and information on their bases should be considered from multiple perspectives. It becomes necessary to do. Such a thing is generally called supply chain management (SCM).

  For this reason, in order to optimize the supply chain, a method of creating a supply chain model on a computer and performing simulation on the computer to improve the efficiency of the supply chain has been developed.

  In the supply chain, if there are weak parts in the chain, such as the flow of information and information, such as unclear stock quantity, the supply chain may be broken. Therefore, in order to optimize the flow of materials and information for business activities such as procurement, production, sales, and logistics of materials, it is necessary to capture the flow of materials in real time for all operations in the supply chain. . Therefore, introduction of an information system package called an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package has been promoted for the core business of a company.

  The ERP package is an integrated business package, which is package software for an enterprise information system that integrates the entire enterprise activities such as sales, production, logistics, and finance. It is intended to integrate systems built separately in each department so that they can be referred to and used by each department. Centralized management of data such as financial accounting and personnel, system upgrades and easy maintenance inspections, etc. It is possible to refer to the work of the department in real time.

  In the supply chain, sales and production plans are prepared in response to orders from customers, and materials are procured from the outside or other material suppliers (hereinafter referred to as suppliers), and production activities are carried out in the production process. .

  FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a supply chain. In FIG. 1, a customer 21 places an order for a product at a sales base 22 where the product is purchased. The sales base 22 creates a sales plan based on the order from the customer 21 and the sales forecast at the sales base 22 and places an order with the sales department 23. Here, the sales base 22 refers to a sales department in a sales department of a manufacturing company that produces a product, and a sales company such as a distributor or an agency independent of the manufacturing company.

  The sales department 23 creates a demand plan based on orders from a plurality of sales bases 22, an inventory plan in the sales department 23, and orders products from the production department 24. Here, the sales department 23 has a business that supervises orders, entry / exit information, sales information, and the like from each sales base, and has a base warehouse 42 that temporarily stocks products. Accordingly, the warehouse information is also base warehouse information including product inventory information of the base warehouse 42. The sales department 23 is often a department of the manufacturing company. A plurality of sales departments 23 may be provided for each region, for example, for each city, prefecture, etc. in the country, and for each state, county, etc. outside the country.

  The production department 24 considers the factory inventory of products and materials based on the demand plan from the sales department 23, decides the shipment of products, the production quantity at the factory, and orders the materials from the material procurement department 25. The material ordering department orders materials from a plurality of suppliers 26 and procures materials.

  The supplier 26 orders and procures the raw material used for the received material from the raw material supplier, for example, a raw material supplier or a parts supplier.

  Hereinafter, the materials refer to parts and members procured by the material procurement department 25 such as parts and members for assembling the product main body and members (for example, accessories and packing materials) for bringing the product into a shipping state. .

  The raw material refers to a member procured for use by the supplier 26 for the ordered material. For example, a general commercially available part (for example, an electronic part) for completing an ordered part (for example, an electronic board) is also referred to as a raw material.

  In FIG. 1, solid arrows indicate the flow of information such as orders, and broken arrows indicate the flow of goods. In FIG. 1, the material supplier, the parts supplier, etc. that are ordered by the supplier 26 are omitted.

  When placing an order for the above products, in general, in addition to product order confirmation information, the procurement side (ordering side) notifies future product ordering forecast information (forecast information) from the procurement side (ordering side) to the supplier side (supplier). Is done. The forecast information is changed to product order confirmation information (confirmation information) on a predetermined date. As a result, the supply side can make a future production plan, and it is possible to suppress the occurrence of excess inventory and shortage. In the example of FIG. 1, sales prospect information and sales confirmation information from the sales base to the sales department are demand forecast information and demand confirmation information from the sales department to the production department.

  However, orders from customers do not always stay constant, and sales plans may vary. This causes demand and production plan fluctuations when changing from forecast information to confirmed information.

  In addition, the so-called product life cycle from the start of sales to the end of production (end of production) is generally considered to go through the stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. ing. During the decline period, the amount of demand decreases and the product life cycle in the product life cycle ends, that is, the end of life (hereinafter referred to as EOL), the time when the product sales and production ends. .

  Here, in the end of production and sales of a product that reaches the end of its product life (hereinafter also referred to as EOL product), in many cases, production and sales of the next product succeeding the EOL product are started, and the EOL product is Switch to the next product. However, since the next product is a new product, the production start time may fluctuate from the original plan due to sales strategy, production, quality, etc. (in many cases, it will be delayed). For this reason, sales and production fluctuations of the next product occur, and accordingly, sales and production of EOL products may also fluctuate. As described above, fluctuations in sales and production may occur at the time when the product is switched from the EOL product to the next product.

  For this reason, it is possible to prevent delays in production due to shortage of materials with long delivery lead times, so-called long delivery parts, and delays in shipment due to shortages of products, especially against fluctuations in sales plans. Materials and product inventory that can be minimized are desired.

  In addition, the stock and materials of the product at the time of EOL of the EOL product, especially the dedicated material of the corresponding product remain as surplus stock and are discarded to cause a disposal loss. For this reason, reduction of the waste loss is desired.

  In contrast to the above, calculating the error of the past forecast information, the average value of the error, and the standard deviation of the error from the past forecast information and the order received corresponding thereto, and correcting the current forecast information The calculation of the order quantity is disclosed. (For example, refer to Patent Document 1).

  In addition, it is disclosed that a supply chain model is evaluated based on an evaluation index, an optimal supply chain model is set, and an optimal supply chain is constructed based on the optimal supply chain model (see, for example, Patent Document 2).

  In addition, the computer obtains time information including the time of manufacture or start of use of the product used by the customer, compares the demand forecast period with the obtained time information, and the product life expectancy comes during the demand forecast period Extracting a product is disclosed (for example, refer to Patent Document 3).

JP 2006-39802 A JP 2007-226718 A JP 2004-30002 A

  Patent Document 1 corrects the current forecast information and calculates the order quantity, so that the order receiving side can make a highly accurate order prediction, thereby preventing the occurrence of shortage and excessive inventory. It is intended to effectively suppress. However, in the case of a sudden change in order, it is impossible to predict whether or not a shortage will occur, and a shortage may occur.

  Patent Document 2 describes the procurement, production, distribution, and sales of materials (parts) from the procurement of an operating supply chain to delivery to consumers by performing a simulation using the form of the operating supply chain as a supply chain model. It optimizes the flow of business activities and information. However, the response to changes in sales and demand is not considered.

  Patent Document 3 provides a demand prediction method with excellent accuracy and efficiency for producing economically in a timely manner in accordance with the required amount. However, there was no mention of adjustment of material inventory in the production department, and there was a risk that material inventory would become excessive.

  Conventionally, in order to cope with a sudden increase in orders for products more than expected, it has been generally performed to have a large number of products and materials in stock. Such a sudden increase in product orders may occur at the time when the product is switched from the EOL product to the next product as described above. For example, if the production start time of the next product is delayed from the original plan, the EOL product may be increased and connected to the next product. In many cases, the delay in the production start time of the next product is unexpected, and therefore the increase in production of the EOL product is often sudden.

  As described above, if a method for increasing the number of stocks is used, the delivery delay of the product can be reduced. However, the material procurement department has a large safety stock for materials (parts) having a long delivery lead time, so-called long delivery parts. In the production department, products with a long production lead time will have a lot of work-in-process and products as safety stock in the process. On the other hand, the sales department will have the product as a safety stock as a countermeasure when the product delivery time is delayed due to a material shortage in the production department. In this way, each department in the supply chain has a safety stock in a form corresponding to each department, and the entire supply chain often has an excessive number of inventory. In general, there are many parts with long delivery times, such as electronic parts, which have a high unit price, and as a result, inventory costs increase and the state may be maintained.

  Here, if the increase in orders from the sales base is more than expected, and if the delivery date is sufficient to be able to handle the procurement from the production department, the safety stock in the sales department mentioned above is the expected safety stock. There is no problem with this, but in general there are many cases where a normal delivery date is used. For this reason, the above-mentioned safety stock in the sales department increased due to sales fluctuations in addition to the quantity corresponding to the difference between the delivery lead time (LT) and the distribution lead time (LT) in procurement from the production department and the delivery date. Often the quantity takes into account minutes.

  The shipping LT is the time (days) from when the sales department places an order to the production department and the product is shipped from the production department. The logistics LT is the product is shipped from the production department and received at the sales department (base warehouse). This is the time (number of days) to complete. Also, the quantity corresponding to the difference between the sum of the shipping LT and the logistics LT and the delivery date is, for example, 2 days for the shipping LT, 5 days for the logistics LT, and 4 days for the delivery date. The quantity of minutes. This is the case where the order and the order are on the same day, and if they are different, it may be necessary for the number of days.

  Further, as described above, the so-called product life cycle from the start of sales of products to the end of sales is generally considered to go through the stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. During the decline period, the amount of demand decreases and the product life ends, so-called EOL (End Of Life).

  For this reason, as described above, if each department has a certain safety stock, materials, particularly materials dedicated to the product and unsold products may remain as surplus stock during EOL. In many cases, the dedicated materials and the excess product inventory are discarded and result in disposal loss. In particular, the surplus inventory of the dedicated materials and products often increases more than the actual demand if a certain safety stock is set in the case of a product with less customer demand.

  In addition, during the decline of the product life cycle, the number of products issued from the sales department (base warehouse) generally decreases, and the sales department also reduces the product inventory, and the product to the production department. We will also reduce orders. However, the material procurement department often has a large amount of material safety stock as a response to a sudden increase in product orders. Furthermore, for materials with long delivery lead times, orders may be placed as usual with information before the demand declines. Long-delivery parts often have high unit prices, such as electronic parts, and waste loss may increase.

  Furthermore, depending on the material order contract (purchase contract) with the supplier, it is necessary to purchase materials and raw materials to be stocked at the supplier at the end of production, which may lead to waste loss.

  In addition, materials (particularly parts) are not only used for production of products, but also serve as repair parts (service parts) used for after-sales services such as product repair and care after the products are sold to the market. . Therefore, the procurement of materials and the safety stock must also take into account a supply parts plan for supplying parts as service parts.

  In Patent Documents 1 to 3, the safety stock of products and materials at each stage of such a life cycle, in particular, dedicated materials is not considered, and the loss of disposal of products and dedicated materials at the time of the EOL is reduced. It was difficult.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above situation, and prevents delays in production due to a shortage of materials and shipment delays due to a shortage of product inventory even if a sales plan fluctuation with a sudden increase in sales exceeding the initially assumed fluctuation in sales occurs. An object of the present invention is to provide a supply chain efficiency support method capable of minimizing waste loss of products and materials in the entire supply chain at the end of the product life.

  The above object is achieved by the following method.

1. From procurement of materials that may change when the sales plan for sales of products with multiple destinations and the demand plan for product procurement shift from prospective information (forecast information) to finalized information A supply chain efficiency support method for improving the efficiency of the supply chain of the product consisting of a plurality of operations from the production process to the customer,
Setting a supply chain model that models the supply chain on a computer;
The primary variation obtained by changing the sales plan, the demand plan, and the production plan based on the demand plan at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain with a primary fluctuation range, and a secondary having the primary fluctuation range increased. Assuming secondary fluctuation of fluctuation range, creating primary fluctuation information and secondary fluctuation information and storing them in the storage means;
Formulating the demand forecast information for the remaining period starting from the beginning in the life cycle of the product and storing it in the storage means;
The number of stocks of the materials, the number of stocks and order lots of raw materials used for the materials, and the raw material common information on whether the raw materials are dedicated to the product or shared with other products at the supplier who supplies the material to the material procurement side , Creating supplier information based on raw material production end information and procurement contract information and storing it in storage means;
Establishing supply parts plan information assuming the demand for service parts used for after-sales service of the product, and storing it in the storage means;
Product information, production information, distribution route information and primary fluctuation information, secondary fluctuation of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package storing product information, production information, distribution route information, material information, and material procurement condition information Based on the information, creating simulation data with simulation data creating means, and storing in the storage means;
In the supply chain model, a simulation corresponding to the primary fluctuation is performed on a computer based on the simulation data, and when the primary fluctuation occurs, the product and the material are not incurred without causing a shortage of the product. Calculating the number of safety stocks that minimize inventory costs;
Based on the demand forecast information, the supplier information, the supply parts plan information, the simulation data, the material information, and the material procurement condition information, the computer performs a simulation corresponding to the secondary fluctuation on the computer. When the secondary fluctuation occurs, the total amount of the discarded amount of the surplus inventory of the product and the material and the discarded amount of the surplus inventory of the material and the raw material at the supplier without causing a shortage of the product Calculating the number of safety stocks and distribution routes that minimize the
A method for supporting efficiency in a supply chain, wherein a series of processing in the steps is performed in a cycle for each predetermined unit period.

  2. 2. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the plurality of operations include material procurement operations, production operations, sales operations, sales base operations, and logistics operations related to the respective operations.

  3. 3. The supply chain efficiency support method according to item 1 or 2, wherein the production plan includes a production plan for each destination of the product.

  4). 4. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the demand prediction information includes a schedule until the end of production for each destination of the product.

  5. The primary fluctuation information includes a primary fluctuation sales plan based on the primary fluctuation width, a primary fluctuation demand plan, and a primary fluctuation production plan based on the primary fluctuation demand plan, and the secondary fluctuation information is based on the secondary fluctuation width. The supply chain efficiency support according to any one of 1 to 4, further comprising a secondary variable sales plan, a secondary variable demand plan, and a secondary variable production plan based on the secondary variable demand plan Method.

  6). The material information includes information on whether the material is a dedicated material for the product or a common material with other products including the next product, and the material procurement condition information includes the number of lots ordered, the material unit price, The supply chain efficiency support according to any one of 1 to 5 above, which includes data on a lead time for material delivery, data on fluctuations in material unit price with respect to fluctuations in the number of orders, and fluctuations in material delivery lead time. Method.

  7). The supply information of the supply chain according to any one of 1 to 6, wherein the product information includes material to be used, quantity of the material, process chart, and configuration data for each destination of the product. Efficiency support method.

  8). The production information includes the production plan information of the product production amount and the delivery date, the change of the production amount and delivery date of the product when the next product is delayed to the market, the production plan information, the stock information of the material, the order information, the delivery date information and the price. 8. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 7 above, wherein the product inventory information in information, production and sales is included.

  9. 9. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 8, wherein the distribution route information includes a distribution lead time and a distribution cost of a distribution route of products and materials.

  10. In the simulation, the supply chain base information stored in the storage means, information related to the communication environment status, communication environment information, and distribution information related to the distribution status are extracted and added to perform the simulation. 10. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 9 above.

  As a result of the above, it is possible to minimize the stock amount of products, materials and raw materials without causing product shortages even if sales fluctuations occur more than expected in the entire supply chain from supplier to sales. It is possible to reduce the loss of disposal of products, dedicated materials, and dedicated raw materials at the end of the life cycle.

It is the schematic which shows an example of a supply chain. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. An example of the flowchart which aims at the efficiency improvement of the supply chain which concerns on this invention is shown. It is a figure which shows transition of forecast information and material order confirmation information.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings, but the present invention is not limited thereto.

  FIG. 7 is a table showing an example of changes in order forecast information (hereinafter also referred to as forecast) and order confirmation information (hereinafter also referred to as order confirmation). FIG. 7 shows an example in which the order interval, the forecast transmission interval, and the delivery lead time are set to one week. These intervals are appropriately set depending on the types of products and materials, and are, for example, two weeks or one month. The intervals may be different. In FIG. 7, the order confirmation is denoted as PO and the forecast as FC.

  In accordance with the ordering plan prepared by the first order, PO1 for order confirmation is ordered in one week of the planned ordering, and a forward FC1 is transmitted. PO1 is delivered in 2 weeks. In 2 weeks, FC1 is changed to PO2 and an order is placed, and a forecast FC2 is transmitted. PO2 is delivered in 3 weeks. The same goes for the following. FIG. 7 shows an example in which delivery is completed in nine weeks.

  In the example of FIG. 7, the ordering is performed by creating a material requirement plan by MRP (Material Requirements Planning) or the like based on the production plan every week.

  Further, order information such as reservation information (reservation) may be provided between forecast and order confirmation. In this case, as an example, Forecast is not a commitment to purchase materials, and reservation is a commitment to purchase, but is not a commitment, and order confirmation may be a commitment to both purchase and timing.

  Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5 show material ordering to production, including demand and production plans where product ordering information shifts from forecast to order confirmation and demand and production fluctuations may occur due to sales plan fluctuations. It is a block diagram showing one embodiment of a supply chain efficiency support method for improving the efficiency of the supply chain of a product that reaches a customer (product shipping destination) through a process. Although the block diagram is divided into FIGS. 2, 3, 4 and 5 for the purpose of illustration, FIGS. 2, 3, 4 and 5 are integrated.

  For the supply chain 20, refer to FIG. The supply chain 20 has a plurality of operations including a material procurement operation, a production operation, a sales operation, a sales base operation, and a logistics operation related to each operation.

  In FIG. 4, the database 1 is a storage means for storing the various data and information described above, and the data and information of the ERP package 2 are also necessary via the relay program 6 and the data converter 7 which is a simulation data creation means. In response. In addition, simulation data created by the data converter 7 described later is also captured. Of the data and information of the ERP package 2, data and information that are not used by the data conversion unit 7 may be directly taken into the database 1 via the relay program 6 without using the data conversion unit 7.

  The ERP package 2 is an integrated business package, has an integrated database, and stores product information, production information, distribution route information, material information, material procurement condition information, and the like.

  The product information includes materials used for each destination of the product, the quantity of the materials, a process chart of the product, configuration data, and the like.

  The production information includes a production plan of product production and delivery date, production lead time, material delivery route, delivery lead time, inventory, ordering, delivery date, price information, product inventory information, and the like. The production plan information (production plan information) includes production plan information on the production amount and delivery date of a product created in response to the delay when the next product is put on the market.

  The distribution route information includes distribution lead time and distribution cost for each material in the normal distribution route and the temporary distribution route used for material procurement.

  The material information includes information on whether the material is a dedicated material of the product or a common material with other products including the next product, and the material procurement condition information includes the order lot number and the order lot number of the material. Includes data on material unit price fluctuations and material delivery lead time fluctuations.

  The sales plan creation unit 3 creates a sales plan based on the actual demand (order) of the customer 21 at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain 20. The sales plan is created for the product (EOL product) and the next product after the sale of the next product is started.

  The sales plan creation unit 3 is provided in, for example, a management department in the sales base 22. The sales plan is transmitted to the demand plan creation unit 41.

  The unit period is a predetermined period in which a product production / sales plan is created, and production / sales are carried out by continuing the unit period. For example, it is set as appropriate according to the type, form, etc. of the product, such as every month, every three months, etc. The unit period is not always a fixed length. For example, the unit period may be changed at each stage of the product life cycle, introduction period, growth period, maturity period, decline period, and the like. Alternatively, the actual demand may vary every time.

  The demand plan creation unit 41 creates a demand plan based on the sales plan, the product inventory information of the base warehouse 42, and the entry / exit information. Further, it is determined in which stage of the product life cycle the EOL product is assumed in advance, and EOL stage information is created. The demand plan includes forecast information and confirmation information for EOL products, and production request plan information for the next product.

  The base warehouse 42 temporarily stores the product delivered from the production department 24 and ships the product in response to a shipping request (order received) from the sales base 22. The information of the base warehouse 42 (base warehouse information) includes product inventory information and receipt / shipment information. The demand plan creation unit 41 and the base warehouse 42 are provided in the sales department 23, for example, the procurement management department.

  The demand plan and EOL stage information are transmitted to the production plan creation unit 5.

  Based on the demand plan, the production plan creation unit 5 creates production plans for the EOL product and the next product in consideration of the constraints of material procurement, factories and logistics, and the product inventory status in the production department 24. The production plan includes a destination production plan for each destination based on the setting of the quantity for each destination in the demand plan.

  Restrictions on material procurement include parts production capacity and material delivery lead time. The factory constraint conditions include production lead time, process maximum production capacity, process production capacity switching condition, and the like. Distribution restrictions include product shipment and distribution lead time, distribution capability, warehouse inventory capability, and the like. The production plan creation unit 5 is provided, for example, in the production management department in the production department 24.

  The supplier information creation unit 43 creates supplier information based on the inventory information of materials at each supplier 26, the number of raw materials in stock and the number of order lots, common raw material information, raw material production end information, and procurement contract information.

  The number of lots ordered for raw materials is the number of lots ordered for raw materials used for the materials, that is, the number of lots ordered for raw materials at the supplier 26. The raw material common information is information on whether the raw material in the supplier 26 is dedicated to the EOL product or common with other products, and the raw material production end information exists only when the production of the raw material is scheduled to end. Information. The procurement contract information is a contract for conditions for ordering and supplying materials between the supplier side and the procurement side. For example, when the production of EOL products is terminated, it is contracted that the procurement side purchases the exclusive materials and raw materials of the EOL products that are surplus on the supplier side.

  The procurement contract is not limited to a collective contract for each supplier but may be a contract for each material. For example, the raw material level is not covered by the contract, but the part level is covered. The supplier information creation unit 43 is often provided in the production department 24 or the material procurement department 25, for example.

  The sales plan, demand plan, EOL stage information, base warehouse, production plan, and supplier information are input to the database 1 and the ERP package 2 via the relay program 6 and the data converter 7. These plans and information are applied to the supply chain 20 of the target product at the beginning of the unit period.

  For the sales plan, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes a fluctuation range of the sales plan in the sales, and the fluctuation in the virtual sales is set. The fluctuations in the sales are set as a primary sales fluctuation of an assumed primary fluctuation range and a secondary sales fluctuation of a secondary fluctuation range obtained by increasing the primary fluctuation range, and a primary fluctuation sales plan (primary fluctuation information) and A secondary variable sales plan (secondary variable information) is created.

  The primary fluctuation range of the primary sales fluctuation is for the EOL product and the next product, referring to the customer order fluctuation at the sales base 22, the sales fluctuation of the similar product in the past, and the like. It is set as appropriate in consideration of the total sales volume of the EOL product and the next product. For example, the change in sales volume is set to 1.5 times the initial plan.

  The secondary fluctuation range of the secondary sales fluctuation is based on the EOL product, referring to the expected delay in the production start time of the next product, the maximum production capacity that the production department 24 can produce, etc. It is set as appropriate in consideration of the maximum number of future sales. For example, the change in sales volume is set to twice the initial plan.

  Next, similarly, the demand plan creation unit 41 uses the primary and secondary variable sales plans, the product inventory information of the base warehouse 42, and the inbound / outbound information to generate the primary variable demand plan (primary fluctuation information) and the secondary variable demand plan (two Next fluctuation information) is created.

  The primary and secondary variable demand plans are transmitted to the production plan creation unit 5. The production plan creation unit 5 creates a primary fluctuation production plan (primary fluctuation information) and a secondary fluctuation production plan (secondary fluctuation information) based on the primary and secondary fluctuation demand plans and the constraint conditions.

  The supply part plan creation unit 44 creates a supply part plan for service parts used for after-sales service of products. The supply part plan creation unit 44 is provided, for example, in a parts center of an after-service department that manages the overall after-sales service of products already sold. The parts center procures service parts and supplies them to the market. The service parts are replenished for a predetermined period after the sale of the product is completed. For this reason, the procurement of service parts is based on the quantity already sold and the quantity scheduled to be sold in the future. It is performed while shifting from forecast to confirmed information every time. Further, in order to procure service parts, an order from the parts center to the material procurement department 25 is often used.

  Each variation and each plan is input to the database 1 and the ERP package 2 through the relay program 6 and the data conversion unit 7.

  Simulation data is created by the data converter 7 which is a simulation data creation means based on the product information, the production information, the logistics information and the sales, demand, and production plan information stored in the ERP package 2. . The plan information on sales, demand, and production refers to information on each plan at the beginning, fluctuation in primary fluctuation range (primary fluctuation), and fluctuation in secondary fluctuation width (secondary fluctuation). The simulation data is a data table obtained by converting each information data into numerical values and symbols so that the data can be used on a computer. For example, a sales plan, a demand plan, and a production plan are coded and linked to data related to each plan to create a data table.

  In addition, in order to make it easy to use the supplier information on the computer in the data conversion unit 7, the name, the number of stocks, the number of lots ordered, whether or not they are common to other products, It is also possible to create a data table by symbolizing and digitizing the presence / absence of the purchase guarantee of surplus items. Furthermore, in order to make it easy to use the spare parts plan information on a computer, the time and quantity of the procurement forecast and confirmation information for each service part is symbolized and digitized every time it is set and created as a data table. You can also.

  A data conversion unit 7 is provided. The data conversion unit 7 is an ERP package 2, a sales plan creation unit 3, a demand plan creation unit 41, a base warehouse 42, a production plan creation unit 5, a supplier information creation unit 43, and a supply part plan creation unit. By linking with 44, simulation data and a data table can be created using the latest information. For example, even when the design change occurs and the data of the ERP package 2 is corrected, the data conversion unit 7 can always create simulation data based on the latest data of the ERP package 2. For this reason, simulation close to an actual system and with high accuracy becomes possible. Also, by creating simulation data in advance, it is possible to reduce the load for creating simulation data when performing a simulation, which will be described later, and to perform a quick simulation.

  The model creation unit 8 sets a supply chain model on a computer with reference to the simulation data based on information such as a supply chain configuration stored in the database 1. The supply chain model simulates an actual supply chain on a computer as a virtual supply chain. The actual flow of goods in the supply chain, each operation, etc. can be simulated on a computer.

  The supply chain model set in the model creation unit 8 is a model that performs simulation based on primary sales fluctuations, and material procurement is performed under normal procurement conditions, that is, when the production plan is constant with no fluctuations in the production plan. The procurement conditions set in advance are applied. In the normal procurement conditions, the number of material ordering lots, the material unit price for the ordering lot number, and the material delivery lead time are set in advance.

  Here, the number of lots refers to the quantity of one lot.

  In addition, supply of products and materials is usually set by a distribution route. Hereinafter, the supply chain model is also referred to as model 1.

  Here, there are various logistics routes such as sea mail, automobile mail, air mail, etc. Generally, the logistics route has a long logistics lead time, for example, shipping costs are low, and the logistics lead time is short, for example, air mail. And so on. For this reason, usually, a logistics lead time is long as a logistics route but a logistics cost is low. For example, a shipping service is often used as a regular logistics route. On the other hand, in the present embodiment, the distribution route (air mail or the like) that is temporarily used although the distribution lead time is short but the distribution cost is high is referred to as a temporary distribution route.

  In the simulation condition setting unit 9, the simulation period, for example, to which period the primary sales fluctuation setting is set, or to which unit period after the first unit period is to be simulated, initial inventory setting, unit period sales, etc. Set parameters such as quantity settings, and simulation conditions such as settings.

  Based on the simulation data and the simulation conditions, the simulation unit 10 performs a simulation for the EOL product and the next product using the model 1 on a computer.

  According to the simulation, when the primary fluctuation occurs, the safety stock number (primary fluctuation safety stock number) that does not cause a shortage of the product and minimizes the inventory cost of the product and the material is calculated.

  Here, the safety stock number (variable safety stock number) can be converted into safety stock days (variable safety stock days) based on the daily production amount at the time of change.

  The result evaluation unit 11 evaluates and examines the result of the simulation (primary variable safety stock quantity), and if it is necessary to change the conditions and perform simulation, the simulation condition setting unit 9 sets the conditions again and performs the simulation. be able to. Thereby, the range of evaluation can be expanded.

  The simulation result information is fed back as a primary variable safety stock number setting value or a primary variable safety stock number setting value, stored in the database 1, and further transferred to the ERP package 2 for storage. The simulation result transferred to the ERP package 2 is taken into the supply chain 20 and reflected in actual product inventory planning, material requirement planning, order confirmation, and forecasting.

  Next, in the model creation unit 12, a supply chain model that performs a simulation based on secondary sales fluctuations based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1 refers to the simulation data on a computer. Is set. The supply chain model set by the model creation unit 12 is referred to as model 2.

  The model 1 and the model 2 are named differently for the sake of explanation, but the structure of the supply chain is the same.

  In the model 2, material information, material procurement condition information, supplier information, and supply part plan information are added to the model 1 described above.

  As described above, the material information is information on whether the product is a dedicated part of the product for each material or a common part with other products including the next product, and if it is the common part, the common part is used. Includes data on model and number of other products used. The material procurement condition information includes data on the order lot number of the material, a change in the material unit price with respect to the change in the order lot number, and a change in material delivery lead time with respect to the change in the order lot number. The supplier information includes stock information of materials at each supplier 26, the number of raw materials in stock and the number of order lots, common information on raw materials, raw material production end information, and procurement contract information. Further, the supply parts plan information includes future demand forecast of service parts, forecast of procurement time and quantity, and confirmation information.

  Furthermore, the distribution lead time and the distribution cost of products and materials are added to the distribution route of products and materials when the temporary distribution route (such as air mail) and the temporary distribution route are used. Also, base warehouse information is added.

  Model 2 is a function for calculating the logistics costs and inventory costs of products, materials and raw materials, materials in the production department 24, safety stock of products, product safety stock on the sales side, and safety stock of materials and raw materials at the supplier 26. And a function of reducing these disposal losses during EOL of the product.

  Here, the disposal loss refers to the total cost (disposal amount) of the discarded products, dedicated materials, and raw materials.

  At the time of product EOL, if the material is a common material with other products including the next product, it is possible to prevent surplus inventory by diverting it to other products, etc., but dedicated materials can be diverted to service parts Otherwise, it is discarded, resulting in disposal loss. Therefore, the material disposal loss is mainly affected by the surplus inventory of dedicated materials.

  The disposal loss of the dedicated material occurs not only in the production department and the material procurement department in the factory, but also in the stock of the material of the supplier 26 for which the material procurement department 25 compensates the purchase by the contract.

  In addition, raw materials that are stocked at the supplier 26 and compensated for purchase by the material procurement department 25, mainly dedicated raw materials, are disposed of except for those used for the production of service parts.

  Furthermore, as described above, the surplus inventory whose sales prospects have disappeared becomes a disposal loss also on the sales side such as the sales base 22 and the sales department 23.

  Further, with reference to the above-mentioned EOL stage information, demand forecast information in the remaining life cycle of the EOL product from the beginning of the unit period to the EOL is formulated. The demand forecast information includes a schedule until the end of sales for each destination of the product. As a result, a more detailed demand forecast can be formulated. For the demand forecast information, an application program (demand forecast tool) that realizes a known demand forecast method that has been generally proposed is selected according to product characteristics, added to model 2, and used on a computer. It is formulated.

  In the simulation condition setting unit 13, the simulation period, for example, to which period the secondary sales fluctuation is set, or to which unit period after the first unit period, etc. Set the parameters such as the production amount, and set the simulation conditions.

  Based on the simulation data, the simulation conditions, the demand prediction information, the material information, the material procurement condition information, the supplier information, and the supply part plan information, the simulation unit 14 uses the model 2 on the computer to perform the simulation. Done.

  Generally, the material unit price increases as the order lot number decreases. In addition, if the number of order lots decreases, the material supplier assumes a decrease in the subsequent material order, and often reduces or stops the preparation in the prospective production, and the delivery lead time may fluctuate.

  In addition, as described above, in ordering materials, materials with long delivery lead times may be ordered with the same number of order lots as before with information before the demand for products decreases. In this case, especially in the case of dedicated parts with a long lead time for delivery, it was not possible to cope with a decrease in demand, resulting in an increase in disposal loss.

  For this reason, referring to the demand forecast information, when the demand decline is predicted, change the material procurement conditions and place an order, that is, reduce the number of order lots and make the order more reflective of demand information. Can be considered. However, in this case, the material unit price increases.

  For this reason, in order to minimize the disposal loss of the dedicated material in the production department 24 at the time of EOL, it is necessary to mutually optimize the material procurement conditions, that is, the order lot number, the material unit price, and the delivery lead time. . This is also true for raw materials that are stocked at the supplier 26 and compensated for purchases by contract.

  Based on the secondary sales fluctuation in the unit period and the demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle in the simulation, the waste loss (discarded amount) at the time of EOL does not occur when there is a secondary sales fluctuation and there is no product shortage. The minimum safety stock number (secondary variable safety stock number) of products, materials, and raw materials is calculated. At the same time, material procurement conditions and temporary logistics routes are selected. The product safety stock number in the secondary variable safety stock number includes the condition of the stock number for each product stock location (for example, sales side and production side).

  The result evaluation unit 15 evaluates and examines the result of the simulation (secondary variable safety stock number, material procurement conditions, temporary logistics route), and if it is necessary to change the conditions and perform simulation, the simulation condition setting unit 13 again. The simulation can be performed by setting the conditions. Thereby, the range of evaluation can be expanded.

  The information of the simulation result is fed back as a primary variable safety stock number setting value or a primary variable safety stock day setting value, material procurement conditions and a temporary logistics route, stored in the database 1, and further transferred to the ERP package 2 for storage. . Furthermore, it is reflected in the supply chain 20. Reflection to the supply chain 20 may be part or all, and may be set as appropriate. For example, depending on the material, the price may be low, and the amount may be small even if it is pre-stocked or discarded at the time of EOL. In addition, the temporary distribution route is applied to the supply chain 20 when a secondary change occurs.

  In the simulation of the above-described models 1 and 2, the simulation is performed by extracting from the database 1 the information on the bases constituting the supply chain, the information on the communication environment, the communication environment information, and the distribution information on the distribution state. It is preferable to carry out. As a result, a simulation that is closer to the actual system and highly accurate is possible.

  Furthermore, a sales plan is created in accordance with the actual demand (order) of the customer 21 of the supply chain 20 described above, assuming primary sales fluctuations and secondary sales fluctuations, demand forecasting in the product life cycle, service parts demand forecasting. In consideration of the above, a series of optimization processing for performing simulation and optimizing the supply chain 20 is performed at predetermined intervals and reflected in the supply chain 20.

  The predetermined cycle is the stage of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline in the life cycle of the above-mentioned product every time the actual demand fluctuation (actual sales fluctuation) of the customer 21 occurs in the supply chain 20 every certain period. Or a combination of these. The predetermined period is preferably set as appropriate in consideration of the position of the product in the market, demand, characteristics, product life, and the like. Moreover, it is preferable to shorten the said predetermined period in the decline period of a product, ie, near EOL.

  As mentioned above, information on demand at each point in the product life cycle, inventory of dedicated materials including product inventory and supplier inventory, raw material inventory, material unit price by the number of lots ordered for dedicated materials, material delivery lead time Based on the demand forecast of distribution routes and service parts, a supply chain model is used to perform a simulation at a predetermined cycle. As a result, the stock amount of products, materials and raw materials can be minimized without causing product shortages even if sales fluctuations (secondary fluctuations) occur more than expected in the entire supply chain from suppliers to sales. It is possible to reduce waste loss of products, dedicated materials, and dedicated raw materials when the product life cycle is completed.

  Also, based on the results of the simulation, not only when the demand fluctuation is reduced, but also when the production is increased, it is possible to produce without delay in delivery until the demand fluctuation of the current material and raw material inventory. It is possible to predict and deliver accurate delivery date answers to the sales department.

  FIG. 6 shows an example of a flow chart for improving the efficiency of the supply chain using the supply chain efficiency support method shown in FIGS. It is assumed that necessary data and information are captured from the ERP package 2 in the database 1.

  In step S101, a sales plan, a demand plan, and a production plan for the EOL product and the next product according to the actual demand of the customer 21 in the supply chain 20 are created.

  In step S102, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes and sets primary sales fluctuations of the EOL product and the next product.

  In step S103, a primary fluctuation demand plan and a primary fluctuation production plan are created based on the primary sales fluctuation.

  In step S104, the data conversion unit 7 creates simulation data based on the product information, production information, sales, demand, and production plans of the ERP package 2.

  In step S105, the model creation unit 8 creates a supply chain model (model 1) that models the supply chain on the computer based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1.

  In step S106, the simulation condition setting unit 9 sets the simulation conditions by the person in charge. The simulation conditions are set for a simulation period, an opening inventory, a parameter setting such as a sales amount for a unit period, and the like.

  In step S107, the simulation unit 10 performs a simulation using the model 1 based on the simulation data and the simulation conditions. As a result of the simulation, there is no product shortage at the time of primary sales fluctuation, The number of primary variable safety stocks that minimizes inventory costs is calculated.

  In step S108, the result evaluation unit 11 evaluates and evaluates the simulation result (primary variable safety stock number). Further, if it is necessary to change the conditions for simulation (step S108; No), the conditions are set again in step S106 and the simulation is performed. If re-simulation is not required (step S108; Yes), the simulation result (primary variable safety stock number) is stored in the database 1 in step S109.

  In step S110, the simulation result (primary variable safety stock number) is transferred from the database 1 to the ERP package 2 and reflected in the data and information of the ERP package 2.

  In step S111, the result of the simulation (primary variable safety stock number) is reflected in the supply chain 20.

  In step S112, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes and sets a secondary sales fluctuation for the EOL product.

  In step S113, a secondary fluctuation demand plan and a secondary fluctuation production plan are created based on the secondary sales fluctuation.

  In step S114, the model creation unit 12 creates a supply chain model (model 2) obtained by modeling the supply chain on the computer based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1. As described above, in the model 2, material information, material procurement condition information, supplier information, and supply part plan information are added to the model 1 described above. Furthermore, the distribution lead time and the distribution cost of products and materials are added to the distribution route of products and materials when the temporary distribution route (such as air mail) and the temporary distribution route are used. Also, base warehouse information is added. Model 2 is a function for calculating the logistics costs and inventory costs of products, materials and raw materials, materials in the production department 24, safety stock of products, product safety stock on the sales side, and safety stock of materials and raw materials at the supplier 26. And a function of reducing these disposal losses during EOL of the product. Further, with reference to the EOL stage information described above, demand forecast information in the remaining life cycle from the beginning of the unit period to the EOL is formulated.

  In step S115, the simulation condition setting unit 13 sets the simulation conditions by the person in charge. The simulation conditions are set such as a simulation period, an initial safety stock quantity setting, a parameter setting such as a sales volume setting for a unit period, and the like.

  In step S116, the simulation unit 14 uses the model 2 based on the simulation data, the simulation condition, the previous term demand forecast information, the material information, the material procurement condition information, the supplier information, and the supply part plan information. Simulation is performed. Based on the secondary sales fluctuation in the unit period and the demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle in the simulation, the waste loss (discarded amount) at the time of EOL does not occur when there is a secondary sales fluctuation and there is no product shortage. The minimum safety stock number (secondary variable safety stock number) of products, materials, and raw materials is calculated. At the same time, material procurement conditions and temporary logistics routes are selected. The product safety stock number in the secondary variable safety stock number includes the condition of the stock number for each product stock location (for example, sales side and production side).

  In step S117, the result evaluation unit 15 evaluates and evaluates the results of the simulation (secondary fluctuation safety stock, material procurement conditions, temporary logistics route). If it is necessary to change the conditions for further simulation (step S117; No), the conditions are set again in step S115 and the simulation is performed. If re-simulation is not required (step S117; Yes), the simulation result is stored in the database 1 in step S118.

  In step S119, the simulation result is transferred from the database 1 to the ERP package 2 and reflected in the data and information of the ERP package 2.

  In step S120, the simulation result is reflected in the supply chain 20.

  By performing the processing of the above steps S101 to S120 for each predetermined cycle as described above, the product, material, The stock amount of raw materials can be minimized. Furthermore, it is possible to reduce the loss of disposal of products, dedicated materials, and dedicated raw materials when the product life cycle ends.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Database 2 ERP package 3 Sales plan creation part 5 Production plan creation part 6 Relay program 7 Data conversion part 8, 12 Model creation part 9, 13 Simulation condition setting part 10, 14 Simulation part 11, 15 Result evaluation part 20 Supply chain 21 Customers 22 Sales bases 23 Sales departments 24 Production departments 25 Material procurement departments 26 Suppliers 41 Demand planning departments 42 Base warehouses 43 Supplier information creation departments 44 Supply parts planning departments

Claims (10)

From procurement of materials that may change when the sales plan for sales of products with multiple destinations and the demand plan for product procurement shift from prospective information (forecast information) to finalized information A supply chain efficiency support method for improving the efficiency of the supply chain of the product consisting of a plurality of operations from the production process to the customer,
Setting a supply chain model that models the supply chain on a computer;
A primary variation in which the sales plan, the demand plan, and the production plan based on the demand plan at the beginning of a unit period of the product in the supply chain are varied with a primary variation range, and a secondary with the primary variation range being increased. Assuming secondary fluctuation of fluctuation range, creating primary fluctuation information and secondary fluctuation information and storing them in the storage means;
Formulating the demand forecast information for the remaining period starting from the beginning in the life cycle of the product and storing it in the storage means;
The number of stocks of the materials, the number of stocks and order lots of raw materials used for the materials, and the raw material common information on whether the raw materials are dedicated to the product or shared with other products at the supplier who supplies the material to the material procurement side A step of creating supplier information based on raw material production end information and procurement contract information and storing it in a storage means;
Estimating the demand for service parts used for after-sales service of the product, formulating supply parts plan information, and storing in storage means;
Product information, production information, distribution route information and primary fluctuation information, secondary fluctuation of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package storing product information, production information, distribution route information, material information, and material procurement condition information Based on the information, creating simulation data with simulation data creating means, and storing in the storage means;
Based on the simulation data, the supply chain model performs a simulation corresponding to the primary variation on a computer, and when the primary variation occurs, the product and the material Calculating the number of safety stocks that minimize inventory costs;
Based on the demand forecast information, the supplier information, the supply parts plan information, the simulation data, the material information, and the material procurement condition information, the computer performs a simulation corresponding to the secondary fluctuation on the computer. When the secondary fluctuation occurs, the total amount of the discarded amount of the surplus inventory of the product and the material and the discarded amount of the surplus inventory of the material and the raw material at the supplier without causing a shortage of the product Calculating the number of safety stocks and distribution routes that minimize the
A method for supporting efficiency in a supply chain, wherein a series of processing in the steps is performed in a cycle for each predetermined unit period.   2. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the plurality of operations include a material procurement operation, a production operation, a sales operation, a sales base operation, and a distribution operation related to each operation.   3. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the production plan includes a production plan for each destination of the product.   4. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the demand prediction information includes a schedule until the end of production for each destination of the product. 5.   The primary fluctuation information includes a primary fluctuation sales plan based on the primary fluctuation width, a primary fluctuation demand plan, and a primary fluctuation production plan based on the primary fluctuation demand plan, and the secondary fluctuation information is based on the secondary fluctuation width. The efficiency of the supply chain according to any one of claims 1 to 4, comprising a secondary variable sales plan, a secondary variable demand plan, and a secondary variable production plan based on the secondary variable demand plan. Support method.   The material information includes information on whether the material is a dedicated material for the product or a common material with other products including the next product, and the material procurement condition information includes the number of lots ordered, the material unit price, The supply chain efficiency according to any one of claims 1 to 5, including material delivery lead time, data on fluctuations in material unit price with respect to fluctuations in the number of orders, and fluctuations in material delivery lead time. Support method.   The supply chain according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the product information includes material to be used, quantity of the material, process chart, and configuration data for each destination of the product. Efficiency improvement support method.   The production information includes the production plan information of the product production amount and the delivery date, the change of the production amount and delivery date of the product when the next product is delayed to the market, the production plan information, the stock information of the material, the order information, the delivery date information and the price. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, further comprising product inventory information in information, production, and sales.   9. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the distribution route information includes distribution lead time and distribution cost of distribution routes of products and materials.   In the simulation, the supply chain base information stored in the storage means, information related to the communication environment status, communication environment information, and distribution information related to the distribution status are extracted and added to perform the simulation. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 9.

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