JP2009258833A - Streamlining support method for supply chain - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a streamlining support method for a supply chain for preventing production delay due to the deficiency of materials or shopping delay due to the shortage of product inventory even when the sudden sales plan variations of the increase of the number of sales exceeding initially estimated sales variations occur, and for minimizing the surplus inventory of products and exclusive materials at a point of time when the lifetime of a product ends. <P>SOLUTION: This streamlining support method for a supply chain includes: estimating the case that broadened sales variations exceeding initially estimated sales variations is generated; predicting demands in the residual life cycle of a product; adding a temporary physical circulation route to a normal physical circulation route for delivering a product; further adding base warehouse information to perform simulation with a supply chain model; and calculating the minimum number of security inventory and temporary physical circulation route of the product and materials to prevent the deficiency of the product from being generated in the case of broadening sales variations, and to minimize waste loss at an EOL(End Of Life); and executing the simulation in each prescribed cycle and period on the life cycle of the product. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2010,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention does not interfere with the sales plan even if the sales plan fluctuates in the supply chain from the procurement of the material to the customer through the production process, and occurs at the end of the product life cycle. The present invention relates to optimization of the safety stock number of products and materials that can reduce the loss of products and materials.

  There are multiple operations from procurement of materials (hereinafter also referred to as parts) to delivery to customers, for example, operations such as material procurement, production and sales (hereinafter also referred to as departments) before the product reaches the customer. A series of business activities are performed through coordination of business activities in each business.

  The business is not always limited to one site, and is generally composed of a plurality of sites. For example, the sales department is often composed of a plurality of sales bases.

  Optimization of such a chain of business activities, the so-called supply chain (efficiency) has been studied as an important issue.

  When optimizing a supply chain where there are multiple operations, consider production information such as production volume and delivery date, procurement, production, distribution, sales, etc., and information about their bases from multiple perspectives. It becomes necessary to do. Such a thing is generally called supply chain management (SCM).

  For this reason, in order to optimize the supply chain, methods for creating a supply chain model and simulating with a simulator to optimize the supply chain have been developed.

  In addition, in the supply chain, if there is a weak part in the chain, such as the flow of information or information, such as an unclear stock quantity, the supply chain may be broken. Therefore, in order to optimize the flow of materials and information on business activities such as procurement, production and sales of materials from the procurement of materials to delivery to customers, the flow of materials in all operations in the supply chain Need to be captured. Therefore, introduction of an information system package called an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package has been promoted for the core business of a company.

  The ERP package is an integrated business package, which is package software for an enterprise information system that integrates the entire enterprise activities such as sales, production, logistics, and finance. It is intended to integrate systems built separately in each department so that they can be referred to and used by each department. Centralized management of data such as financial accounting and personnel, system upgrades and easy maintenance inspections, etc. It is possible to refer to the work of the department in real time.

  In the supply chain, sales and production plans are made according to orders from customers, materials are procured from outside and other factories (hereinafter referred to as suppliers), and production activities are performed in the production process.

  FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a supply chain. In FIG. 1, a customer 21 places an order for a product at a sales base 22 where the product is purchased. The sales base 22 creates a sales plan based on the order from the customer 21 and the sales forecast at the sales base 22 and places an order with the sales department 23. Here, the sales base 22 refers to a sales department in a sales department of a manufacturing company that produces a product, and a sales company such as a distributor or an agency independent of the manufacturing company.

  The sales department 23 creates a demand plan based on orders from a plurality of sales bases 22, an inventory plan in the sales department 23, and orders products from the production department 24. Here, the sales department 23 has a business that supervises orders, entry / exit information, sales information, and the like from each sales base, and has a base warehouse 42 that temporarily stocks products. The sales department 23 is often a department of the manufacturing company. A plurality of sales departments 23 may be provided for each region, for example, for each city, prefecture, etc. in the country, and for each state, county, etc. outside the country.

  The production department 24 considers the factory inventory of products and materials based on the demand plan from the sales department 23, decides the shipment of products, the production quantity at the factory, and orders the materials from the material procurement department 25. The material ordering department orders materials from a plurality of suppliers 26 and procures materials.

  In FIG. 1, solid arrows indicate the flow of information such as orders, and broken arrows indicate the flow of goods.

  When placing an order for the product, in general, in addition to the order confirmation information for the product, the procurement side (ordering side) notifies future supply information (forecast information) from the procurement side (ordering side) to the supply side. The forecast information is changed to product order confirmation information (confirmation information) on a predetermined date. As a result, the supply side can make a future production plan, and it is possible to suppress the occurrence of excess inventory and shortage. In the example of FIG. 1, sales prospect information and sales confirmation information from the sales base to the sales department are demand forecast information and demand confirmation information from the sales department to the production department.

  However, orders from customers do not always stay constant, and sales plans may vary. This causes demand and production plan fluctuations when changing from forecast information to confirmed information. For this reason, especially in response to an increase in the sales plan, it prevents production delays due to material shortages and shipment delays due to insufficient product inventory, while preventing unnecessary inventory of materials and products and minimizing inventory costs. It is desirable.

  The so-called product life cycle from the start of sales to the end of sales is generally considered to go through the stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. During the decline period, the amount of demand decreases and the product life ends, so-called End Of Life (hereinafter also abbreviated as EOL). Accordingly, the materials at the time of the EOL, particularly the dedicated materials for the corresponding product and the stock of the product may remain as surplus stock and be discarded to cause a disposal loss. For this reason, reduction of the waste loss is desired.

  In contrast to the above, calculating the error of the past forecast information, the average value of the error, and the standard deviation of the error from the past forecast information and the order received corresponding thereto, and correcting the current forecast information The calculation of the order quantity is disclosed. (For example, refer to Patent Document 1).

  In addition, it is disclosed that a supply chain model is evaluated based on an evaluation index, an optimal supply chain model is set, and an optimal supply chain is constructed based on the optimal supply chain model (see, for example, Patent Document 2).

In addition, the computer obtains time information including the time of manufacture or start of use of the product used by the customer, compares the demand forecast period with the obtained time information, and the product life expectancy comes during the demand forecast period Extracting a product is disclosed (for example, refer to Patent Document 3).
JP 2006-39802 A JP 2007-226718 A JP 2004-30002 A

  Patent Document 1 corrects the current forecast information and calculates the order quantity, so that the order receiving side can make a highly accurate order prediction, thereby preventing the occurrence of shortage and excessive inventory. It is intended to effectively suppress. However, in the case of a sudden change in order, it is impossible to predict whether or not a shortage will occur, and a shortage may occur.

  Patent Document 2 describes operations such as procurement, production, distribution, and sales of materials and parts from procurement of an operating supply chain to delivery to consumers by simulating the form of the operating supply chain as a supply chain model. It optimizes the flow of activities and information. However, the response to changes in sales and demand is not considered.

  Patent Document 3 provides a demand prediction method with excellent accuracy and efficiency for producing economically in a timely manner in accordance with the required amount. However, there was no mention of adjustment of material inventory in the production department, and there was a risk that material inventory would become excessive.

  Conventionally, in order to cope with a sudden increase in orders for products more than expected, it has been generally performed to have a large number of products and materials in stock. Such a method for increasing the number of stocks can reduce the delay in delivery of products. However, the material procurement department has a safety stock for materials (parts) having a long delivery lead time, so-called long delivery parts. In the production department, for products with a long production lead time, the work-in-process and products are held as safety stock in the process. On the other hand, the sales department will have the product as a safety stock as a countermeasure when the product delivery time is delayed due to a material shortage in the production department. In this way, each department in the supply chain has a safety stock in a form corresponding to each department, and the entire supply chain often has an excessive number of inventory. Along with this, inventory costs also increased, and there was a risk that the state would be maintained.

  Here, if the increase in orders from the sales base is more than expected, and if the delivery date is sufficient to be able to handle the procurement from the production department, the safety stock in the sales department mentioned above is the expected safety stock. There is no problem with this, but in general there are many cases where a normal delivery date is used. For this reason, the above-mentioned safety stock in the sales department increased due to sales fluctuations in addition to the quantity corresponding to the difference between the delivery lead time (LT) and the distribution lead time (LT) in procurement from the production department and the delivery date. Often the quantity takes into account minutes.

  The shipping LT is the time (days) from when the sales department places an order to the production department and the product is shipped from the production department. The logistics LT is the product is shipped from the production department and received at the sales department (base warehouse). This is the time (number of days) to complete. Also, the quantity corresponding to the difference between the sum of the shipping LT and the logistics LT and the delivery date is, for example, 2 days for the shipping LT, 5 days for the logistics LT, and 4 days for the delivery date. The quantity of minutes. This is the case where the order and the order are on the same day, and if they are different, it may be necessary for the number of days.

  Further, as described above, the so-called product life cycle from the start of sales of products to the end of sales is generally considered to go through the stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. During the decline period, the amount of demand decreases and the product life ends, so-called EOL (End Of Life).

  For this reason, as described above, if each department has a certain safety stock, materials, particularly materials dedicated to the product and unsold products may remain as surplus stock during EOL. In many cases, the dedicated materials and the excess product inventory are discarded and result in disposal loss. In particular, the surplus inventory of the dedicated materials and products often increases more than the actual demand if a certain safety stock is set in the case of a product with less customer demand. Further, the change of the safety stock is delayed when it is performed at the time of EOL, and as described above, the surplus stock increases and the disposal loss increases.

  In Patent Documents 1 to 3, the safety stock of dedicated materials and products at each stage of the life cycle is not considered, and it is difficult to reduce the excess stock and disposal loss of products at the time of the EOL. Met.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above situation, and prevents delays in production due to a shortage of materials and shipment delays due to a shortage of product inventory even if a sales plan fluctuation with a sudden increase in sales exceeding the initially assumed fluctuation in sales occurs. An object of the present invention is to provide a supply chain efficiency support method capable of minimizing excess inventory of products and dedicated materials at the end of the product life.

The above object is achieved by the following method.
1. The sales plan for the sales volume of the product and the demand plan for the procurement quantity of the product are shifted from the future sales and demand forecast information (forecast information) to the sales and demand confirmation information, and sales and demand fluctuations occur. A supply chain efficiency support method comprising a plurality of operations ranging from material procurement to production processes, including a sales plan and a demand plan,
Setting a supply chain model that models the supply chain on a computer;
For the sales plan and demand plan at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain, a variable sales plan and variable demand plan that assumes fluctuations, and a variable production plan based on the variable demand plan are drawn up and stored in the storage means as fluctuation information And steps to
An expansion variable sales plan and an expansion variable demand plan assuming an expansion fluctuation exceeding the variable sales plan and the variable demand plan, and an expansion variable production plan based on the expansion variable demand plan are drawn up and input to the storage means as expansion fluctuation information Steps,
Each piece of information is taken from an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package that stores product information, production information, and distribution route information, and the fluctuation information and the enlarged fluctuation information are taken from the storage means, and simulation data is obtained based on these information. Creating the simulation data in the simulation data creation means to create, and storing in the storage means;
In the supply chain model, based on the simulation data, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation is performed by a simulator, and the stock of the product and the material that does not cause a product shortage at the time of the fluctuation and minimizes the inventory cost of the product and the material is minimized. Calculating a number;
Formulating demand forecast data for the remaining lifecycle of the product starting from the beginning;
Based on the simulation data and the demand forecast data in the supply chain model, a simulation corresponding to the expansion variation is performed by a simulator, and the minimum safe stock number of products and materials and products that do not cause a product shortage at the time of expansion variation And calculating a material distribution route,
A supply chain efficiency support method, wherein a series of processing in the steps is performed at a cycle of a predetermined unit period.
2. 2. The supply chain efficiency support method according to 1, wherein the plurality of operations include a material procurement operation, a production operation, a sales operation, and a sales base operation.
3. 3. The supply chain efficiency support method according to 1 or 2, wherein the material includes work-in-process items in the production operation.
4). 4. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the product information includes a material used for the product, a quantity of the material, a process chart of the product, and data of the configuration.
5. The production information includes production plan information of product production volume and delivery date, stock information of materials, ordering information, delivery date information and price information, and product inventory information in production and sales. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1.
6). 6. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 5, wherein the distribution route information includes distribution lead time and distribution cost of distribution routes of products and materials.
7). In the simulation, the supply chain base information stored in the storage means, information related to the communication environment status, communication environment information, and distribution information related to the distribution status are extracted and added to perform the simulation. 7. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 6.

  As described above, it is possible to prevent a delay in production due to a shortage of materials and a delay in shipment due to a shortage of product inventory even if a sales fluctuation exceeding the sales fluctuation assumed at the beginning occurs. In addition, depending on the timing of the product life cycle, it is possible to minimize the number of materials and product inventory that take into account the demand in the remaining life cycle of the product. Product waste loss can be reduced.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings, but the present invention is not limited thereto.

  FIG. 6 is a table showing an example of changes in order forecast information (hereinafter also referred to as forecast) and order confirmation information (hereinafter also referred to as order confirmation). FIG. 6 shows an example in which the order interval, the forecast transmission interval, and the delivery lead time are set to one week. These intervals are appropriately set depending on the types of products and materials, and are, for example, two weeks or one month. The intervals may be different. In FIG. 6, the order confirmation is denoted as PO and the forecast as FC.

  In accordance with the ordering plan prepared by the first order, PO1 for order confirmation is ordered in one week of the planned ordering, and a forward FC1 is transmitted. PO1 is delivered in 2 weeks. In 2 weeks, FC1 is changed to PO2 and an order is placed, and a forecast FC2 is transmitted. PO2 is delivered in 3 weeks. The same goes for the following. FIG. 6 shows an example in which delivery is completed in nine weeks.

  In the example of FIG. 6, the ordering is performed by creating a material requirement plan by MRP (Material Requirements Planning) or the like based on the production plan every week.

  Further, order information such as reservation information (reservation) may be provided between forecast and order confirmation. In this case, as an example, Forecast is not a commitment to purchase materials, and reservation is a commitment to purchase, but is not a commitment, and order confirmation may be a commitment that both purchase and timing are committed.

  Figures 2, 3 and 4 show the process from material procurement to production process, including demand and production plans where product ordering information shifts from forecast to final order and demand and production fluctuations can occur due to sales plan fluctuations. It is a flowchart which shows one Embodiment of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which aims at the efficiency improvement of the supply chain of the product which goes through via a customer (product shipping destination). Although the flow diagram is divided into FIGS. 2, 3 and 4 for the purpose of illustration, FIGS. 2, 3 and 4 are integrated. For the supply chain 20, refer to FIG.

  In FIG. 3, the database 1 is a storage means for storing the various data and information described above, and the data and information of the ERP package 2 are also necessary via the relay program 6 and the data converter 7 which is a simulation data creation means. In response. In addition, simulation data created by the data converter 7 described later is also captured. Of the data and information of the ERP package 2, data and information that are not used by the data conversion unit 7 may be directly taken into the database 1 via the relay program 6 without using the data conversion unit 7.

  The ERP package 2 is an integrated business package, has an integrated database, and stores product information, production information, distribution route information, and the like. The product information is based on the materials used for the product, the quantity of the material, the process schedule and data of the product, etc., and the production information is the product production volume, production lead time, delivery date, material delivery route, delivery lead time, inventory. , Ordering, delivery date, price information, product inventory information, etc. The distribution route information includes distribution lead time and distribution cost for each material in the normal distribution route and the temporary distribution route used for material procurement.

  The sales plan creation unit 3 creates a sales plan based on the actual demand (order) of the customer 21 at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain 20. The sales plan creation unit 3 is provided in, for example, a management department in the sales base 22. The sales plan is transmitted to the demand plan creation unit 41. The unit period is a predetermined period in which a product production / sales plan is created, and production / sales are carried out by continuing the unit period. For example, it is set as appropriate according to the type, form, etc. of the product, such as every month, every three months, etc. The unit period does not always have to be a fixed length. For example, the unit period may be changed in each stage of the product life cycle, introduction period, growth period, maturity period, decline period, and the like. Alternatively, the actual demand may vary every time.

  The demand plan creation unit 41 creates a demand plan based on the sales plan, the product inventory information of the base warehouse 42, and the entry / exit information, and taking into account sales fluctuations. Further, it is determined in which stage of the product life cycle the unit period is assumed in advance, and EOL stage information is created.

  The base warehouse 42 temporarily stores the product delivered from the production department 24 and ships the product in response to a shipping request (order received) from the sales base 22. Information on the base warehouse 42 includes product inventory information, receipt / shipment information, and the like. The demand plan creation unit 41 and the base warehouse 42 are provided in the sales department 23, for example, the procurement management department. The demand plan and EOL stage information are transmitted to the production plan creation unit 5.

  Based on the demand plan, the production plan creation unit 5 creates a production plan in consideration of material procurement, factories, distribution restrictions, and product inventory status in the production department 24. Material procurement constraints include parts production capacity, material delivery lead time, and material ordering contracts with suppliers. The factory constraint conditions include production lead time, process maximum production capacity, process production capacity switching condition, and the like. Distribution restrictions include product shipment and distribution lead time, distribution capability, warehouse inventory capability, and the like. The production plan creation unit 5 is provided, for example, in the production management department in the production department 24.

  The sales plan, demand plan, EOL stage information, base warehouse, and production plan information are input to the database 1 and the ERP package 2 via the relay program 6 and the data converter 7. These plans and information are applied to the supply chain 20 of the target product at the beginning of the unit period.

  With respect to the demand plan, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes fluctuations in sales, and fluctuation information in virtual sales is set. As the fluctuation in the sales, an initially assumed sales fluctuation and an expanded sales fluctuation exceeding the sales fluctuation are set. The sales fluctuation is appropriately set according to the model in consideration of fluctuations in customer orders at the sales base 22, sales fluctuation of similar products in the past, and the like. The expanded sales fluctuation is appropriately set by referring to the maximum production capacity that can be produced by the production department 24 and taking into consideration the maximum number of sales of the product. For example, 3 times, 4 times, etc.

  Next, similarly, the demand plan creation unit 41 creates a fluctuation demand plan and an expanded fluctuation demand plan based on the sales fluctuation information, the product inventory information of the base warehouse 42, and the loading / unloading information.

  The variable demand plan and the expanded variable demand plan are transmitted to the production plan creation unit 5. The production plan creation unit 5 creates a fluctuation production plan and an expansion fluctuation production plan based on the sales fluctuation, the expansion fluctuation demand plan, and the constraint conditions.

  Each variation and each plan is input to the database 1 and the ERP package 2 through the relay program 6 and the data conversion unit 7.

  The data conversion unit 7 creates simulation data based on the product information and the production information stored in the ERP package 2.

  A data conversion unit 7 is provided, and the data conversion unit 7 is linked to the ERP package 2, the sales plan creation unit 3, the demand plan creation unit 41, the base warehouse 42, and the production plan creation unit 5 to simulate using the latest information. Data can be created. For example, even when the design change occurs and the data of the ERP package 2 is corrected, the data conversion unit 7 can always create simulation data based on the latest data of the ERP package 2. For this reason, simulation close to an actual system and with high accuracy becomes possible. Also, by creating simulation data in advance, it is possible to reduce the load for creating simulation data when performing a simulation, which will be described later, and to perform a quick simulation.

  The model creation unit 8 sets a supply chain model on a computer based on the simulation data based on information such as a supply chain configuration stored in the database 1. The supply chain model simulates an actual supply chain on a computer as a virtual supply chain. The actual flow of goods in the supply chain, each operation, etc. can be simulated on a computer.

  The supply chain model set by the model creation unit 8 is a model that performs simulation based on the sales fluctuation, and the supply of products and materials is normally set by a distribution route. Hereinafter, the supply chain model is also referred to as model 1.

  Here, there are various logistics routes such as sea mail, automobile mail, air mail, etc. Generally, the logistics route has a long logistics lead time, for example, shipping costs are low, and the logistics lead time is short, for example, air mail. And so on. For this reason, usually, a logistics lead time is long as a logistics route but a logistics cost is low. For example, a shipping service is often used as a regular logistics route. On the other hand, a logistics route that has a short logistics lead time but high logistics costs and is temporarily used is referred to as a temporary logistics route.

  In the simulation condition setting unit 9, the simulation period, for example, to which period the sales fluctuation is set, or to which unit period after the first unit period, the initial inventory setting, the sales amount of the unit period, etc. Set the parameters such as the setting of the simulation conditions such as the setting of.

  Based on the simulation data and the simulation conditions, the simulation unit 10 performs a simulation using the model 1 in the simulator.

  According to the simulation, when the sales fluctuate, the variable safety stock number is calculated so that the cost of the product stock in the base warehouse 42 and the production department 24 and the material stock in the production department 24 are minimized and no shortage occurs.

  The result evaluation unit 11 evaluates and examines the result of the simulation (the number of variable safety stocks), and when it is necessary to change the conditions and perform simulation, the simulation condition setting unit 9 sets the conditions again and performs the simulation. Can do. Thereby, the range of evaluation can be expanded.

  The simulation result information is fed back as a variable safety stock set value, stored in the database 1, and further transferred to the ERP package 2 for reflection. The simulation result transferred to the ERP package 2 is taken into the supply chain 20 and reflected in actual product inventory planning, material requirement planning, order confirmation, and forecasting.

  Next, on the basis of the simulation data, a supply chain model for performing a simulation based on the expanded sales fluctuation is set based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1 by the model creation unit 12. The supply chain model set by the model creation unit 12 is referred to as model 2.

  Model 2 has a temporary distribution route (such as air mail) added to the distribution route for products and materials, compared to model 1 described above, and the products and materials supplied through the normal distribution route (such as sea mail) and the temporary distribution route. Distribution lead time and distribution cost, and base warehouse information are added. The model 2 has a function for calculating the logistics cost and product and material inventory, a material for the production department 24, a product safety stock, and a product safety stock reduction function for the base warehouse 42.

  Furthermore, with reference to the above-mentioned EOL stage information, demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle from the beginning of the unit period to EOL is formulated. For the demand forecast data, an application program (demand forecasting tool) that realizes a known demand forecasting method that has been generally proposed is selected according to product characteristics, added to model 2, and used on a computer. It is formulated.

  The material and product safety stock reduction function provides a temporary logistics route for shortening the material and product logistics lead time for minimizing the number of materials in the production department 24 and the product safety stock in the production department 24 and the base warehouse 42. Select and calculate material and product safety stock numbers.

  In the simulation condition setting unit 13, the simulation period, for example, to which period the expanded sales fluctuation setting is set, or to which unit period after the first unit period, the initial safety stock quantity setting, the unit period Set the parameters such as the production volume and set the simulation conditions.

  In the simulation unit 14, based on the simulation data, the simulation conditions, and the demand prediction data, a simulation is performed using the model 2 in the simulator.

  In the simulation, based on the expanded sales fluctuation of the unit period and the demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle, the minimum safety stock number and the temporary logistics that minimize the product stock in the base warehouse 42 and the material stock in the production department 24 A route is calculated. In the calculation of the minimum safety stock number and the temporary distribution route, the minimum safety stock number and the temporary distribution route of the product and material are calculated so that the disposal loss of the product and the dedicated material at the time of EOL is minimized.

  The result evaluation unit 15 evaluates and examines the result of the simulation (the minimum safe stock quantity of products and materials and the extraordinary logistics route), and if it is necessary to change the conditions for simulation, the simulation condition setting unit 13 again Can be set for simulation. Thereby, the range of evaluation can be expanded.

  The information of the simulation result is fed back as the minimum safety stock number and temporary logistics route of the products in the base warehouse 42, the safety stock number of materials in the production department 24 and the temporary logistics route of procurement, stored in the database 1, and further the ERP package. 2 is reflected and reflected. The safety stock number of products in the base warehouse 42 and the safety stock number of materials in the production department 24 are reflected in the supply chain 20. In addition, the temporary distribution route is applied to the supply chain 20 when an expanded production fluctuation occurs. In addition, a part or all of the simulation result can be reflected in the supply chain 20 in advance. For example, there are cases where the price is low depending on the material and there is no problem with the amount of money even if it is pre-stocked or discarded at EOL.

  In the simulation of the models 1 and 2, the simulation is performed by taking out the information / communication environment information about the bases constituting the supply chain and the communication environment information from the database 1 and the distribution information about the physical condition of the supply chain. It is preferable to carry out. This makes it possible to perform a simulation that is closer to the actual system and with high accuracy.

  Furthermore, a sales plan is created according to the actual demand (order) of the customer 21 of the supply chain 20 described above, sales fluctuations and expanded sales fluctuations are assumed, and simulations are performed based on demand forecasts in the product life cycle. A series of optimization processes for optimizing the chain 20 is performed at predetermined intervals and reflected in the supply chain 20. The predetermined cycle is a period of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline in the life cycle of the above-mentioned product every time a change in actual demand (actual sales fluctuation) of the customer 21 occurs in the supply chain 20 every certain period. Or a combination of these. The predetermined period is preferably set as appropriate in consideration of the market position, demand, characteristics, product life, etc. of the product. Moreover, it is preferable to shorten the said predetermined period in the decline period of a product, ie, near EOL.

  By performing the simulation with the cycle shortened in this way, the product inventory and the dedicated material inventory in the base warehouse 42 at each point in the product life cycle can be out of stock even if the sales fluctuations are larger than expected. And can be minimized. As a result, it is possible to reduce the excess inventory of the product when the product life cycle ends, and to reduce the disposal loss. In addition, it is possible to calculate the cost of temporary distribution routes for products and materials, and to improve the efficiency of the supply chain.

  FIG. 5 shows an example of a flow chart for improving the efficiency of the supply chain using the supply chain efficiency support method shown in FIGS. It is assumed that necessary data and information are captured from the ERP package 2 in the database 1.

  In step S101, a sales plan, a demand plan, and a production plan corresponding to the actual demand of the customer 21 in the supply chain 20 are created.

  In step S102, a demand fluctuation is assumed and set by the demand plan creation unit 41.

  In step S103, a variable demand plan and a variable production plan are created based on the sales fluctuation.

  In step S104, the data conversion unit 7 creates simulation data based on the product information and production information data of the ERP package 2.

  In step S105, the model creation unit 8 creates a supply chain model (model 1) that models the supply chain on the computer based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1.

  In step S106, the simulation condition setting unit 9 sets the simulation conditions by the person in charge. The simulation conditions are set for a simulation period, an opening inventory, a parameter setting such as a sales amount for a unit period, and the like.

  In step S107, the simulation unit 10 performs a simulation using the model 1 based on the simulation data and the simulation conditions. As a simulation result, the product inventory and the material inventory cost are minimized at the time of sales fluctuation, and no shortage occurs. The variable safety stock number is calculated.

  In step S108, the result evaluation unit 11 evaluates the simulation result (the number of variable safety stocks). Further, when it is necessary to change the conditions for the simulation (step S108; No), the conditions are set again in step S106 and the simulation is performed. If re-simulation is not required (step S108; Yes), the simulation result is stored in the database 1 in step S109.

  In step S110, the simulation result (variable safety stock number) is transferred from the database 1 to the ERP package 2 and reflected in the data and information of the ERP package 2.

  In step S111, the result of the simulation (the number of variable safety stocks) is reflected in the supply chain 20.

  In step S112, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes and sets expanded sales fluctuations.

  In step S113, an expanded variation demand plan and an expanded variation production plan are created based on the expanded sales variation.

  In step S114, the model creation unit 12 creates a supply chain model (model 2) obtained by modeling the supply chain on the computer based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1. Model 2 has a temporary distribution route (such as air mail) added to the distribution route for products and materials, compared to model 1 described above, and the products and materials supplied through the normal distribution route (such as sea mail) and the temporary distribution route. Distribution lead time and distribution cost, and base warehouse information are added. The model 2 has a function for calculating the logistics cost and product and material inventory, a material for the production department 24, a product safety stock, and a product safety stock reduction function for the base warehouse 42. Further, with reference to the above-mentioned EOL stage information, demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle from the beginning of the unit period to EOL is formulated.

  In step S115, the simulation condition setting unit 13 sets the simulation conditions by the person in charge. The simulation conditions are set such as a simulation period, an initial safety stock quantity setting, a parameter setting such as a sales volume setting for a unit period, and the like.

  In step S116, a simulation using the model 2 is performed in the simulation unit 14 based on the simulation data, the simulation conditions, and the demand prediction data. By the simulation, the minimum safety stock number and the temporary logistics route that minimize the stock of the product in the base warehouse 42 and the stock of the material in the production department 24 at the time of the expansion sales change are calculated. In the calculation of the minimum safety stock number and the temporary distribution route, the minimum safety stock number and the temporary distribution route of the product and material are calculated so that the disposal loss of the product and the dedicated material at the time of EOL is minimized.

  In step S117, the result evaluation unit 15 evaluates and examines the result of the simulation (selection of the minimum safe stock number of products and materials and the temporary distribution route). If it is necessary to change the conditions for further simulation (step S117; No), the conditions are set again in step S115 and the simulation is performed. If re-simulation is not required (step S117; Yes), the simulation result is stored in the database 1 in step S118.

  In step S119, the simulation result is transferred from the database 1 to the ERP package 2 and reflected in the data and information of the ERP package 2.

  In step S120, the minimum safe stock quantity of products and materials is reflected in the supply chain 20.

It is the schematic which shows an example of a supply chain. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. An example of the flowchart which aims at the efficiency improvement of the supply chain which concerns on this invention is shown. It is a figure which shows transition of forecast information and material order confirmation information.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Database 2 ERP package 3 Sales plan creation part 41 Demand plan creation part 42 Base warehouse 5 Production plan creation part 6 Relay program 7 Data conversion part 8, 12 Model creation part 9, 13 Simulation condition setting part 10, 14 Simulation part 11, 15 Results Evaluation Department 20 Supply Chain 21 Customer 22 Sales Base 23 Sales Department 24 Production Department 25 Material Procurement Department 26 Supplier

Claims (7)

The sales plan for the sales volume of the product and the demand plan for the procurement quantity of the product are shifted from the future sales and demand forecast information (forecast information) to the sales and demand confirmation information, and sales and demand fluctuations occur. A supply chain efficiency support method comprising a plurality of operations ranging from material procurement to production processes, including a sales plan and a demand plan,
Setting a supply chain model that models the supply chain on a computer;
For the sales plan and demand plan at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain, a variable sales plan and variable demand plan that assumes fluctuations, and a variable production plan based on the variable demand plan are drawn up and stored in the storage means as fluctuation information And steps to
An expansion variable sales plan and an expansion variable demand plan assuming an expansion fluctuation exceeding the variable sales plan and the variable demand plan, and an expansion variable production plan based on the expansion variable demand plan are drawn up and input to the storage means as expansion fluctuation information Steps,
Each piece of information is taken from an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package that stores product information, production information, and distribution route information, and the fluctuation information and the enlarged fluctuation information are taken from the storage means, and simulation data is obtained based on these information. Creating the simulation data in the simulation data creation means to create, and storing in the storage means;
In the supply chain model, based on the simulation data, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation is performed by a simulator, and the stock of the product and the material that does not cause a product shortage at the time of the fluctuation and minimizes the inventory cost of the product and the material is minimized. Calculating a number;
Formulating demand forecast data for the remaining lifecycle of the product starting from the beginning;
Based on the simulation data and the demand forecast data in the supply chain model, a simulation corresponding to the expansion variation is performed by a simulator, and the minimum safe stock number of products and materials and products that do not cause a product shortage at the time of expansion variation And calculating a material distribution route,
A supply chain efficiency support method, wherein a series of processing in the steps is performed at a cycle of a predetermined unit period. 2. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the plurality of operations include a material procurement operation, a production operation, a sales operation, and a sales base operation. 3. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the material includes work in progress in the production operation. 4. The supply chain efficiency support according to claim 1, wherein the product information includes material used for the product, the quantity of the material, a process schedule of the product, and data of the configuration. 5. Method. 5. The production information includes production plan information of product production amount and delivery date, material inventory information, ordering information, delivery date information and price information, and product inventory information in production and sales. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of the above. 6. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the distribution route information includes distribution lead time and distribution cost of distribution routes of products and materials. In the simulation, the supply chain base information stored in the storage means, information related to the communication environment status, communication environment information, and distribution information related to the distribution status are extracted and added to perform the simulation. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

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