CN108898507B - Method for predicting workload of hole repairing and layer changing measures of oil production well - Google Patents
Method for predicting workload of hole repairing and layer changing measures of oil production well Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN108898507B CN108898507B CN201810611050.1A CN201810611050A CN108898507B CN 108898507 B CN108898507 B CN 108898507B CN 201810611050 A CN201810611050 A CN 201810611050A CN 108898507 B CN108898507 B CN 108898507B
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- well
- measure
- year
- hole
- layer
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Active
Links
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 34
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 19
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000003921 oil Substances 0.000 abstract description 28
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 abstract description 6
- 239000010779 crude oil Substances 0.000 abstract description 5
- 238000007430 reference method Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 230000003247 decreasing effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 2
- 238000012935 Averaging Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000003129 oil well Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000087 stabilizing effect Effects 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/02—Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Animal Husbandry (AREA)
- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Agronomy & Crop Science (AREA)
- Mining & Mineral Resources (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Marine Sciences & Fisheries (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention provides a method for predicting the workload of hole-repairing and layer-changing measures of an oil production well, which comprises the following steps: step 1, determining Regenate well's well age distribution annually; step 2, counting data of hole repairing and layer changing measures carried out on the new well in the second year every year, and determining a measure proportion coefficient on the new well according to the proportion of each year; step 3, counting the number of wells of each hole-repairing and layer-changing measure after the new wells are put into production in the past year, calculating the relation between the change of the number of wells of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measure and the age of the wells, and performing a formula fitting formula; and 4, according to the corrected fitting formula, giving a measure workload prediction formula of the oil production well, and predicting the hole repairing and layer changing measure workload of the next year. The hole-filling and layer-changing measure workload prediction method for the oil production well provides a prediction formula of hole-filling and layer-changing workload, provides a reference method for arrangement of measure workload and prediction of crude oil yield, and better guides oil field development and production practices.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of oil reservoir development, in particular to a method for predicting the workload of hole-filling and layer-changing measures of an oil production well.
Background
The crude oil yield is divided into three parts, namely the natural yield of an old well, the measure oil increment of the old well and the yield of a new well. In order to keep the output of the oil field stable, new oil fields need to be continuously discovered, and the output scale of the oil field needs to be kept by performing yield increasing measures such as thickened oil huff and puff, hole filling and layer changing, acidizing and fracturing on old wells. The investment of the new well is large and the risk is large, but the investment of the new well is the basis for maintaining the continuous development of the crude oil yield, and the measures are relatively low in investment and risk. The annual oil increment of each year of measures accounts for a certain proportion of the total yield, under the condition that the price of crude oil is continuously lower, the investment of old well measures is relatively increased in consideration of the maximization of benefits, the measures become one of important measures for stabilizing the yield of an oil field, and the quantity of the measures has direct influence on the yield. However, at present, there is no method for predicting the workload of the measures, and the workload of the next year is simply predicted by averaging the workload of the measures in the past year, so that a scientific and accurate method for predicting the workload of the measures in the oil zone is not provided. Therefore, a new method for predicting the workload of hole repairing and layer changing measures of the oil production well is invented, and the technical problems are solved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for predicting the workload of hole-filling and layer-changing measures of a production well, which can quickly predict the workload of the hole-filling and layer-changing measures of indexes reflecting the potential of the hole-filling and layer-changing measures when water flooding oil is hidden in a later stage with high water content and provide a basis for the optimized configuration formed by the yield of the next year.
The object of the invention can be achieved by the following technical measures: the method for predicting the workload of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measures of the oil production well comprises the following steps: step 1, determining the number of hole-repairing and layer-changing wells every year, and counting the well age distribution of hole-repairing and layer-changing measure wells every year; step 2, counting data of hole repairing and layer changing measures carried out on the new well in the second year every year, and determining a measure proportion coefficient on the new well according to the proportion of each year; step 3, counting the number of wells of each hole-repairing and layer-changing measure after the new wells are put into production in the past year, calculating the relation between the change of the number of wells of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measure and the age of the wells, and performing a formula fitting formula; and 4, according to the corrected fitting formula, giving a measure workload prediction formula of the oil production well, and predicting the hole repairing and layer changing measure workload of the next year.
The object of the invention can also be achieved by the following technical measures:
in the step 2, the process is carried out,
the measure proportion formula of the new well in the second year is as follows:
in the formula:
-new well second year measure proportion,%;
xc-number of new wells to measure the wells in the second year;
xz-the number of wells newly put into the well in the current year;
the new on-well measure proportionality coefficient formula is as follows:
in the formula: lambda-new on-well measure proportionality coefficient,%;
m-the starting year, year of statistics;
n-end year, year of statistics.
In step 3, the change law in the fitting is suitable for two-stage fitting, and the first-stage fitting formula is as follows:
y＝8853.8e-0.109x(0<x<15)
y＝3506.8e-0.135x(15≤x<50)
in the formula: e-is a constant equal to about 2.71828;
y-measure well times;
x-well age of measure well, year.
In step 4, because the well measures are few after 30 years, the formula in step 3 is corrected, the measure prediction is carried out on the well with the well age within 30 years, and the time of the first section and the second section is corrected according to a specific block.
In step 4, the formula after correction is:
first-segment prediction formula: ct1 ═ C2 × e(-0.109*t1)
First-segment prediction formula: ct2 ═ Ct1 ═ e(-0.135*t2)
In the formula:
ct 1-measure well times in the first paragraph;
c2-putting the well in production for the second year;
t 1-number of years in first paragraph;
ct 2-measure well times in the second section;
t 2-number of years in the second paragraph.
The method for predicting the hole-filling and layer-changing measure workload of the oil production well carries out research and analysis by analyzing the well age composition of hole-filling and layer-changing measure wells of each year of a water-drive oil reservoir, the relation between different well ages and the measure frequency and the proportional relation between a new well and the measure frequency of the second year, searches the incidence relation between the operation year and the measure frequency, provides a fitting prediction formula of the measure workload, establishes a prediction model of the measure workload, provides the measure workload of the next year and provides a basis for the production allocation.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of a method for predicting the workload of a hole-filling and layer-changing measure of a production well according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a histogram of the borehole-filling and layer-changing measures and production life span of a 2012A oilfield in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph illustrating a ratio of hole-repairing and layer-modifying measures performed in the new well of the oil field in year 2010-2014A in accordance with an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a scattergram of the relationship between the number of wells for hole-filling and layer-changing measures and the age of the production wells in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the aforementioned and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, preferred embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.
As shown in fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flow chart of the method for predicting the workload of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measures of the oil production well.
And 101, determining the number of the hole-repairing and layer-changing wells every year, and counting the well age distribution of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measure wells every year.
And 103, counting data of hole-filling and layer-changing measures carried out on the new well in the second year every year, and determining a measure proportion coefficient on the new well according to the proportion of every year.
The measure proportion formula of the new well in the second year is as follows:
in the formula:
-new well second year measure proportion,%;
xc-number of new wells to measure the wells in the second year;
xz-the number of wells newly put into the well in the current year;
the new on-well measure proportionality coefficient formula is as follows:
in the formula: lambda-new on-well measure proportionality coefficient,%;
m-the starting year, year of statistics;
n-the end year, year of statistics;
and 105, counting the number of wells of each hole-repairing and layer-changing measure of the new wells in the past each year after the new wells are put into production, calculating the relation between the change of the number of wells of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measure and the age of the wells, and performing a formula fitting formula. The change rule in the fitting is suitable for two-stage fitting, and the first-stage fitting formula is as follows:
y＝8853.8e-0.109x(0<x<15)
y＝3506.8e-0.135x(15≤x<50)
in the formula: e-is a constant equal to about 2.71828;
y-measure well times;
x-well age of the measure well, year;
and step 107, according to the corrected fitting formula, giving a measure workload prediction formula of the oil production well, and predicting the hole repairing and layer changing measure workload of the next year.
Because the well measures are few after the well age is 30 years, the formula in the step 105 is corrected, the measure prediction is carried out on the well with the well age within 30 years, and the time of the first section and the second section is corrected according to a specific block. The formula after correction is as follows:
first-segment prediction formula: ct1 ═ C2 × e(-0.109*t1)
First-segment prediction formula: ct2 ═ Ct1 ═ e(-0.135*t2)
In the formula:
ct 1-measure well times in the first paragraph;
c2-putting the well in production for the second year;
t 1-number of years in first paragraph;
ct 2-measure well times in the second section;
t 2-number of years in the second paragraph.
The following is a specific embodiment of the present invention, including the following steps:
in step 1, according to the data of the well times of the hole repairing and layer changing measures in the year 2010-2014 in the a field, a histogram of the hole repairing and layer changing measures in the year 2010-2014 and the production period of the hole repairing and layer changing wells is made, as shown in fig. 2.
In the step 2, the well age distribution conditions of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measure wells are in a similar rule every year: the number of wells within 10 years of age is more, and the wells are exponentially decreased, and the rate of decrease is about 14%; the stability is kept for 15-30 years; after 30 years the proportion is small and negligible.
In step 3, a proportional graph of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measures in the second year of the new well in 2010-2014 of the A oil field is shown in FIG. 3.
In step 4, the proportion of wells for which hole-repairing and layer-changing measures are carried out on the new wells in the second year is about 5.5-8.9% every year, the proportion change is not small, the average value in recent years can be used as the proportion, and the proportion of wells for which hole-repairing and layer-changing measures are carried out on the new wells in the second year 2010-2014 is about 7.6%.
In step 5, the relation between the well times change of the hole-filling and layer-changing measure wells in the past years and the production well age is counted to obtain a relation curve between the measure well times and the well age, as shown in fig. 4, the measure well times and the production well age are decreased in a two-stage mode, the well times decrease in 2-12 years is 10.9%, the well times decrease in 13-30 years is about 13.8%, and the measure proportion is very small after 30 years and can be ignored. Therefore, knowing the number of wells for a new measure on the well, i.e., the number of measure wells 2 years old, predicts the measure workload each year later.
In step 6, predicting the hole-filling and layer-changing measure well times in 2018 according to the hole-filling and layer-changing measure well times in the second year of new wells in 2017 and 30 years in 1988.
A measure well prediction table of the measure well in 2018 of 1988 and 2017 is given. Specifically, the results are shown in Table 1.
TABLE 11988 Chart of workload prediction of measures implemented in 2018 for producing oil well in 2017
The specific predictions are as follows:
the new well in 2017 is assumed to be newly thrown at 2000 ports in 2017, the proportion of the above measures is calculated according to the average proportion of 7.6% of hole-repairing layer-changing measures in the second year of the new well, and the number of the hole-repairing layer-changing wells in 2018 in 2017 is as follows: 2000 × 7.6% ═ 152 wells.
The number of 2016 measure wells in 2018 was: 24 e(-0.109*t1)＝24*e(-0.109*2)19 wells.
The number of wells in 2018 of the measure in 2015 is: 38 e(-0.109*t1)＝24*e(-0.109*3)27 wells.
……
The number of wells in 2018 for the 2005 measure is: 228 e(-0.135*t1)＝228*e(-0.135*13)61 wells.
In 1988, the number of wells in 2018 was: 62 e(-0.135*t2)1 well times
Adding the data, and predicting the workload of hole filling and layer changing measures in 2018 as follows: 152+19+27+ … +1 ═ 1013 wells.
The method for establishing the workload of the hole-filling and layer-changing measures of the water-drive oil reservoir starts from the objective development rule of the oil reservoir and starts from historical development data, provides a prediction formula of the workload of hole-filling and layer-changing, provides a reference method for the arrangement of the workload of the measures and the prediction of the yield of crude oil, and better guides the development and production practice of the oil field.
Claims (4)
1. The method for predicting the workload of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measures of the oil production well is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, determining the number of hole-repairing and layer-changing wells every year, and counting the well age distribution of hole-repairing and layer-changing measure wells every year;
step 2, counting data of hole repairing and layer changing measures carried out on the new well in the second year every year, and determining a measure proportion coefficient on the new well according to the proportion of each year;
step 3, counting the number of wells of each hole-repairing and layer-changing measure after the new wells are put into production in the past year, calculating the relation between the change of the number of wells of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measure and the age of the wells, and performing a formula fitting formula;
step 4, according to the corrected fitting formula, giving a measure workload prediction formula of the oil production well, and predicting the hole repairing and layer changing measure workload of the next year;
in step 4, the formula after correction is:
first-segment prediction formula: ct1 ═ C2 × e(-0.109*t1)
First stage prediction methodFormula (II): ct2 ═ Ct1 ═ e(-0.135*t2)
In the formula:
ct 1-measure well times in the first paragraph;
c2-putting the well in production for the second year;
t 1-number of years in first paragraph;
ct 2-measure well times in the second section;
t 2-year in the second paragraph.
2. The method for predicting the workload of a hole-repairing and layer-improving measure of a production well according to claim 1, wherein in step 2,
the measure proportion formula of the new well in the second year is as follows:
in the formula:
-new well second year measure proportion,%;
xc-number of new wells to measure the wells in the second year;
xz-the number of wells newly put into the well in the current year;
the new on-well measure proportionality coefficient formula is as follows:
in the formula: lambda-new on-well measure proportionality coefficient,%;
m-the starting year, year of statistics;
n-end year, year of statistics.
3. The method for predicting the workload of the hole-repairing and layer-changing measures of the oil production well according to the claim 1, wherein in the step 3, the change rule in the fitting is suitable for two-stage fitting, and the first-stage fitting formula is as follows:
y＝8853.8e-0.109x(0<x<15)
y＝3506.8e-0.135x(15≤x<50)
in the formula: e-is a constant equal to about 2.71828;
y-measure well times;
x-well age of measure well, year.
4. The method for predicting the workload of the hole-repairing and layer-improving measure of the oil production well according to claim 3, wherein in the step 4, the formula in the step 3 is corrected because the well measure is few wells after the well age of 30 years, the measure prediction is carried out on the wells with the well age of 30 years, and the time of the first period and the second period is corrected according to the specific blocks.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810611050.1A CN108898507B (en) | 2018-06-14 | 2018-06-14 | Method for predicting workload of hole repairing and layer changing measures of oil production well |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810611050.1A CN108898507B (en) | 2018-06-14 | 2018-06-14 | Method for predicting workload of hole repairing and layer changing measures of oil production well |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN108898507A CN108898507A (en) | 2018-11-27 |
| CN108898507B true CN108898507B (en) | 2022-04-19 |
Family
ID=64345027
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810611050.1A Active CN108898507B (en) | 2018-06-14 | 2018-06-14 | Method for predicting workload of hole repairing and layer changing measures of oil production well |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN108898507B (en) |
Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105512450A (en) * | 2014-09-23 | 2016-04-20 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Method and device for quantitative well selection based on oil well measures |
| CN107448185A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2017-12-08 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Offshore oilfield new well in old district encrypts well-arranging procedure |
| CN107939357A (en) * | 2017-11-30 | 2018-04-20 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Improve oilfield development system efficiency method |
Family Cites Families (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105095986B (en) * | 2015-06-23 | 2018-12-25 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | The method of stratified reservoir overall yield prediction |
-
2018
- 2018-06-14 CN CN201810611050.1A patent/CN108898507B/en active Active
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105512450A (en) * | 2014-09-23 | 2016-04-20 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Method and device for quantitative well selection based on oil well measures |
| CN107448185A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2017-12-08 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Offshore oilfield new well in old district encrypts well-arranging procedure |
| CN107939357A (en) * | 2017-11-30 | 2018-04-20 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Improve oilfield development system efficiency method |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
| Title |
|---|
| 大牛地气田补孔改层措施效果评价;郭辉;《石油化工应用》;20170830;第36卷(第8期);全文 * |
| 油田老井自然产量预测方法;张孝天;《石油化工应用》;20140131;第33卷(第1期);全文 * |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN108898507A (en) | 2018-11-27 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN108240208B (en) | Oil field water-flooding classification well group development effect benchmarking method | |
| WO2020192675A1 (en) | Productivity prediction method for fractured horizontal well in tight oil reservoir | |
| CN104832156A (en) | Method for predicting yield of gas well | |
| US10949582B2 (en) | Classification optimization method for steel grade family of steel rolling model | |
| KR101904278B1 (en) | Method for decline curve analysis according to cumulative production incline rate in unconventional gas field | |
| Cheng et al. | A modified Cobb–Douglas production function model and its application | |
| CN106779131A (en) | Grease hole evaluates phase cumulative production Forecasting Methodology | |
| CN103912248A (en) | Method for predicting water contents of water-drive oilfields | |
| CN105631184A (en) | Oil and gas well production decline analysis method and system | |
| CN109711595A (en) | A kind of hydraulic fracturing operation effect evaluation method based on machine learning | |
| CN112561356A (en) | Comprehensive evaluation method for production dynamic mode and productivity of shale oil fracturing horizontal well | |
| US20210238971A1 (en) | Production management of wells based on determined allocated well production rates | |
| CN113445988B (en) | Low-carburized acid salt rock gas reservoir gas well productivity evaluation method | |
| CN108898507B (en) | Method for predicting workload of hole repairing and layer changing measures of oil production well | |
| Pardi et al. | A conceptual framework on adjusted net saving rate as the indicator for measuring sustainable development in Malaysia | |
| CN116658155A (en) | Shale gas well yield prediction method | |
| CN108442921B (en) | Oil well yield splitting method considering time variation and interlayer interference | |
| CN106481315A (en) | Land sandstone oil reservoir individual well recoverable reserves quickly determines model and method for building up | |
| CN116976519A (en) | Shale oil reservoir single well recoverable reserve prediction method and system | |
| CN111914209A (en) | Drainage gas production effect fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy method | |
| CN106156876A (en) | The Forecasting Methodology of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate | |
| Li et al. | Gas production prediction and risk quantification of shale gas reservoirs in Sichuan Basin based on Gauss prediction model and Monte Carlo probability method | |
| CN115045644A (en) | Method for rapidly predicting shale gas well fracturing fluid return displacement based on production data | |
| CN109630094B (en) | Unconventional pressure relief speed analysis method, device and system and storable equipment | |
| CN109871988B (en) | Flood forecast early warning precision analysis method |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |