CN116658155A - Shale gas well yield prediction method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application belongs to the technical field of shale gas reservoir development, and provides a shale gas well yield prediction method, which comprises the following steps: step 1, acquiring geological data, engineering data and production data of a shale gas well to generate basic data; step 2, preprocessing basic data to obtain main control factors influencing the yield of the shale gas well; step 3, constructing a sample set; step 4, establishing a shale gas yield prediction model through an improved B-L-A algorithm And 5, predicting the yield of the fracturing stage of the target zone gas well by using the shale gas yield prediction model established in the step 4. According to the application, the established shale gas yield prediction model is deeply combined with the mathematical method advantages of the BP neural network and the LSTM neural network, and is used as an engineering experience model to carry out constraint, so that the generalization error is effectively reduced, the phenomenon of overfitting is avoided, the model prediction precision is improved, and the reliable yield prediction is provided for the large-scale development of shale gas.
Description
Technical Field
The application belongs to the technical field of shale gas reservoir development, and particularly relates to a shale gas well yield prediction method.
Background
Shale gas, tight sandstone gas, coalbed methane and the like belong to unconventional natural gas. Shale gas, tight sandstone gas, coal bed gas and the like are unconventional natural gas, and the yield prediction after shale gas fracturing is an important means for determining the development economy of the shale gas, but the traditional yield prediction method is complex in calculation, large in workload and difficult to guarantee precision due to complex fracturing process and numerous influencing factors.
Currently, shale gas well production prediction mainly comprises two types of methods: methods based on engineering experience models and methods based on data. The development of the method based on the physical experience model is mature, and the success of the method is that a concise formula is deduced according to the physical parameters of a certain shale gas well under certain conditions, so that the method is convenient for direct application in engineering. However, there are still great difficulties in predicting parameters in a model, and many times, the most difficult problem to solve is presented. At present, a data-based method mainly adopts a machine learning technology to predict conventional oil gas production, and mainly adopts a related algorithm of machine learning to deeply mine data, but the influence on physical parameters is not fully researched. Data-based methods have been tried with little success in using known shale gas reservoir data to infer unknown data, but because the physical parameters of the gas well itself are not considered, the accuracy of the predictions is greatly affected by how similar the predicted gas well is to the physical properties of the known gas well in various aspects.
The method is characterized in that the method is based on the combination of engineering experience model and data mining, the prediction capability of a machine learning method on unknown things is fully utilized, and meanwhile, by introducing classical experience model control, good prediction accuracy is obtained after actual measurement data training, and more accurate prediction is made on the domestic shale gas well yield.
Disclosure of Invention
The application aims to solve the technical problems in the prior art and provides a shale gas well yield prediction method.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the application adopts the following technical scheme: a method of shale gas well production prediction comprising the steps of:
step 1, acquiring geological data, engineering data and production data of a shale gas well to generate basic data;
step 2, preprocessing basic data to obtain main control factors influencing the yield of the shale gas well;
step 3, constructing a sample set, setting the main control factors affecting the yield obtained in the step 2 as Xi, taking the Xi as a characteristic vector of a target block gas well, selecting the basic data of the collected target block gas well as a sample data set, extracting the sample data in the sample data set according to a certain proportion as a training set, and taking the rest sample data as a test set;
step 4, randomly generating a training set and a testing set in a sample data set through learning and training, combining a mathematical method of an error reverse transfer neural network and a long-term and short-term memory neural network, restraining by utilizing an Arps model to form an improved B-L-A algorithm, and establishing a shale gas yield prediction model through the improved B-L-A algorithm
And 5, predicting the yield of the fracturing stage of the target zone gas well by using the shale gas yield prediction model established in the step 4.
In the further technical scheme, in the step 1, basic data comprise a median value, porosity, total organic carbon content, pressure coefficient, horizontal section length, fracturing transformation section number, average cluster distance, fracturing fluid quantity, supporting dosage, quartz sand dosage, average sand ratio, construction displacement, average section length, sand adding strength and fluid using strength of the vertical depth of a horizontal well, wherein the fracturing fluid is slickwater, and the propping agents are 70/140-mesh quartz sand and 40/70-mesh ceramsite.
In the step 2, the specific mode of preprocessing the basic data is that the basic data is ranked according to the intensity degree of influencing the yield of the gas well by adopting a gray correlation method, so that the main control factor influencing the yield is obtained.
In the further technical scheme, in the step 3, the target attribute of the constructed sample data set is the predicted gas well fracturing stage yield.
In a further technical scheme, in the step 4, the improved B-L-A algorithm comprises the following steps:
step 4-1, training test data by using an error reverse transfer neural network method, and performing new prediction by using an algorithm structure meeting the training error requirement after reaching the accuracy requirement, wherein a gradient descent method is selected as a training function, the maximum training frequency is 1000, and the training accuracy requirement is 0.0001;
step 4-2, before the output layer is converted into the result by combining the long-term and short-term memory artificial neural network method, storing the last result in the operation process, adding a storage layer P on the basis of the original output layer to serve as a final output result, storing the last result, and marking the last storage layer element as P t-1 The current storage layer element is denoted as P t ,
P t-1 =(P t-1,1 ,P t-1,2 ,…,P t-1,k )
The output result of this time is given by the error reverse transfer neural network result of this time and the final result of last time together, namely:
Pt=(z t,1 ,z t,2 ,…,z t,k )+MP t-1
wherein the matrix M is likewise given by the training data;
step 4-3, adopting an Arps model empirical model constraint in a data training stage, adopting an empirical model to reasonably extrapolate and compare the result with an actual predicted value according to the three previous results before finally giving a predicted result, if the deviation exceeds a set deviation range, the result cannot be accepted, and the corresponding coefficient is readjusted, and finally accepting the result as an effective predicted result; the basic equation of the Arps model is:
wherein q (t) is the yield at any time, q i For initial yield, D is decreasing index, D i Is the initial reduction rate.
The principle and the beneficial effects of the application are as follows:
1. compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that the geological data, engineering data and production data of the shale gas well are collected, the data are preprocessed by adopting a gray correlation method, the main control factors influencing the yield are identified, a nonlinear mathematical model is built, and the yield of the shale gas well can be predicted more accurately.
2. Compared with the prior art, the shale gas yield prediction model established by the application deeply combines the mathematical method advantages of the error reverse transfer neural network and the long-short-period memory neural network, and is constrained by taking the Arps model as an engineering experience model, so that the generalization error is effectively reduced, the overfitting phenomenon is avoided, the model prediction precision is improved, and the reliable yield prediction is provided for the large-scale development of shale gas.
Additional aspects and advantages of the application will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the application.
Drawings
The foregoing and/or additional aspects and advantages of the application will become apparent and may be better understood from the following description of embodiments taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in which:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of shale gas well production prediction of the present application;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a modified B-L-A algorithm of the method of shale gas well production prediction of the present application
FIG. 3 is a graph comparing test results of an improved B-L-A algorithm of the method for shale gas well production prediction of the present application.
Detailed Description
Embodiments of the present application are described in detail below, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like or similar reference numerals refer to like or similar elements or elements having like or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below by referring to the drawings are illustrative only and are not to be construed as limiting the application.
The application provides a shale gas well yield prediction method, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
and step 1, acquiring geological data, engineering data and production data of the shale gas well to generate basic data.
And step 2, preprocessing the basic data to obtain a main control factor influencing the yield of the shale gas well.
And 3, constructing a sample set, setting the main control factors affecting the yield obtained in the step 2 as Xi, taking the Xi as a characteristic vector of a target block gas well, selecting the collected basic data of the target block gas well as a sample data set, extracting the sample data in the sample data set according to a certain proportion as a training set, and taking the rest sample data as a test set.
And 4, randomly generating a training set and a testing set in a sample data set through learning and training, combining a mathematical method of an error reverse transfer (BP) neural network and an (LSTM) long-short-term memory neural network, restraining by utilizing an Arps model to form an improved B-L-A algorithm, and establishing a shale gas yield prediction model through the improved B-L-A algorithm.
Wherein, the improved B-L-A algorithm comprises the following steps:
step 4-1, training test data by using an error reverse transfer neural network method, and performing new prediction by using an algorithm structure meeting the training error requirement after reaching the accuracy requirement, wherein a gradient descent method is selected as a training function, the maximum training frequency is 1000, and the training accuracy requirement is 0.0001;
step 4-2, storing the last result in the current operation process before the output layer is converted into the result by combining the long-term memory artificial neural network method, and in order to achieve the goal, storing the last result in the original stateAdding a storage layer P based on the output layer as the final output result, storing the last result, and marking the last storage layer element as P t-1 The current storage layer element is denoted as P t ,
P t-1 =(P t-1,1 ,P t-1,2 ,…,P t-1,k )
The output result of this time is given by the error reverse transfer neural network result of this time and the final result of last time together, namely:
Pt=(z t,1 ,z t,2 ,…,z t,k )+MP t-1
wherein the matrix M is likewise given by the training data;
step 4-3, adopting an Arps model empirical model constraint in a data training stage, carrying out reasonable extrapolation by adopting an empirical model according to the three previous results before finally giving a predicted result, comparing the predicted result with an actual predicted value, if the deviation exceeds a set deviation range, failing to accept the predicted result, and readjusting a corresponding coefficient, and finally accepting the predicted result as an effective predicted result; the basic equation of the Arps model is:
wherein q (t) is the yield at any time, q i For initial yield, D is decreasing index, D i Is the initial reduction rate.
And 5, predicting the yield of the fracturing stage of the target zone gas well by using the shale gas yield prediction model established in the step 4.
The basic principle of the application is further described below in connection with specific examples:
collecting data of shale gas well geology, engineering, production and the like:
the method comprises the steps of collecting geological, engineering, production and other data of a shale gas well of a certain block to generate basic data, wherein factors influencing shale gas yield in the basic data comprise a median value (m) of vertical depth of a horizontal well, porosity), total organic carbon content (TOC,%) and pressure coefficient, horizontal section length (m), fracturing transformation section number, average cluster distance (m), fracturing liquid amount (m & lt 3 & gt), propping agent amount (m & lt 3 & gt), quartz sand consumption (t), average sand ratio (%), construction displacement (m & lt 3 & gt/min), average section length (m), sand adding strength (t/m) and liquid using strength (m & lt 3 & gt/section), and 16 parameters are added. Wherein the fracturing fluid is slick water, and the propping agent is 40/70 mesh ceramsite of 70/140 mesh quartz sand.
Data preprocessing:
the factors influencing the shale gas yield in the basic data are preprocessed by adopting a gray correlation method, specifically, the 16 factors are ranked according to the intensity degree influencing the gas well yield by adopting the gray correlation method, and the factors influencing the gas well yield, 8 bits before the ranking of the correlation degree, are selected to be used as main control factors for analysis, wherein the main control factors are shown in the following table 1.
TABLE 1
Sample set construction is performed:
and setting the main control factors affecting the yield, which are obtained based on gray correlation analysis, as Xi as characteristic vectors of the target block gas well. The target attribute is a predicted gas well fracturing stage yield. The selected well base data is used as a sample data set. And extracting certain sample data as a training set, and taking the rest sample data as a test set.
First, a sample data set is imported, and the sample data set is trained by learning according to 7: the ratio of 3 randomly generates a training set and a test set. Through calculating the correlation coefficient between physical parameters (input layer) and a target well, building a BP neural network, combining an LSTM neural network, taking the constraint of an empirical model Arps model into consideration, forming an improved B-L-A algorithm, building a shale gas yield prediction model, and selecting a decision coefficient and a root mean square error as two evaluation indexes.
And calculating two evaluation indexes of the common BP neural network method and the improved algorithm prediction, wherein the statistics of the evaluation indexes of different algorithms are shown in the following table 2.
TABLE 2
Well number | Common BP neural network | Improved B-L-A algorithm |
R 2 | 0.792 | 0.875 |
MSE | 0.443 | 0.219 |
As shown in FIG. 3, the predicted value and the true test value of the modified B-L-A algorithm and the classical BP network method are compared (the abscissa is the segment number, the ordinate is the fracturing segment yield, and the unit is m 3 )。
The result shows that the prediction effect of the improved algorithm is obviously improved, and the overall trend and the single-point error value basically meet the requirement on precision. The improved B-L-A method combines the advantages of an empirical model and a neural network model, and the accuracy of the obtained result is greatly improved.
In the description of the present specification, reference to the terms "preferred implementation," "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "example," "a particular example" or "some examples" and the like means that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the application. In this specification, schematic representations of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiments or examples. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
While embodiments of the present application have been shown and described, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: many changes, modifications, substitutions and variations may be made to the embodiments without departing from the spirit and principles of the application, the scope of which is defined by the claims and their equivalents.
Claims (5)
1. A method for predicting shale gas well production, comprising the steps of:
step 1, acquiring geological data, engineering data and production data of a shale gas well to generate basic data;
step 2, preprocessing basic data to obtain main control factors influencing the yield of the shale gas well;
step 3, constructing a sample set, setting the main control factors affecting the yield obtained in the step 2 as Xi, taking the Xi as a characteristic vector of a target block gas well, selecting the basic data of the collected target block gas well as a sample data set, extracting the sample data in the sample data set according to a certain proportion as a training set, and taking the rest sample data as a test set;
step 4, randomly generating a training set and a testing set in a sample data set through learning and training, combining a mathematical method of an error reverse transfer neural network and a long-term and short-term memory neural network, restraining by utilizing an Arps model to form an improved B-L-A algorithm, and establishing a shale gas yield prediction model through the improved B-L-A algorithm
And 5, predicting the yield of the target zone gas fracturing stage by using the shale gas yield prediction model established in the step 4.
2. The method of shale gas well production prediction as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step 1, the base data comprises median value of vertical depth of horizontal well, porosity, total organic carbon content, pressure coefficient, horizontal segment length, fracturing segment length, number of fracturing modification segments, average cluster spacing, fracturing fluid volume, propping agent amount, quartz sand usage, average sand ratio, construction displacement, average segment length, sand addition strength and fluid use strength, wherein the fracturing fluid is slickwater, and the propping agent is 70/140 mesh quartz sand and 40/70 mesh ceramsite.
3. The method for predicting the production of the shale gas well according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2, the basic data is preprocessed in a specific mode, the basic data is ranked according to the intensity of the influence on the production of the gas well by adopting a gray correlation method, so that a main control factor influencing the production is obtained.
4. The method of shale gas well production prediction as recited in claim 1, wherein in step 3, the constructing a sample dataset target property is predicting gas well fracturing stage production.
5. The method of shale gas well production prediction as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step 4, the improvement of the B-L-a algorithm comprises the steps of:
step 4-1, training test data by using an error reverse transfer neural network method, and performing new prediction by using an algorithm structure meeting the training error requirement after reaching the accuracy requirement, wherein a gradient descent method is selected as a training function, the maximum training frequency is 1000, and the training accuracy requirement is 0.0001;
step 4-2, before the output layer is converted into the result by combining the long-term and short-term memory artificial neural network method, storing the last result in the operation process, adding a storage layer P on the basis of the original output layer to serve as a final output result, storing the last result, and marking the last storage layer element as P t-1 The current storage layer element is denoted as P t ,
P t-1 =(P t-1,1 ,P t-1,2 ,…,P t-1,k )
The output result of this time is given by the error reverse transfer neural network result of this time and the final result of last time together, namely:
Pt=(z t,1 ,z t,2 ,…,z t,k )+MP t-1
wherein the matrix M is likewise given by the training data;
step 4-3, adopting an Arps model empirical model constraint in a data training stage, adopting an empirical model to reasonably extrapolate and compare the result with an actual predicted value according to the three previous results before finally giving a predicted result, if the deviation exceeds a set deviation range, the result cannot be accepted, and the corresponding coefficient is readjusted, and finally accepting the result as an effective predicted result;
the basic equation of the Arps model is:
wherein q (t) is the yield at any time, q i For initial yield, D is decreasing index, D i Is the initial reduction rate.
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CN116911640A (en) * | 2023-09-11 | 2023-10-20 | 中国地质大学(北京) | Shale reservoir gas content prediction method based on machine deep learning |
CN116976146A (en) * | 2023-09-22 | 2023-10-31 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Fracturing well yield prediction method and system coupled with physical driving and data driving |
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CN116911640A (en) * | 2023-09-11 | 2023-10-20 | 中国地质大学(北京) | Shale reservoir gas content prediction method based on machine deep learning |
CN116911640B (en) * | 2023-09-11 | 2023-12-26 | 中国地质大学(北京) | Shale reservoir gas content prediction method based on machine learning |
CN116976146A (en) * | 2023-09-22 | 2023-10-31 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Fracturing well yield prediction method and system coupled with physical driving and data driving |
CN116976146B (en) * | 2023-09-22 | 2024-01-05 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Fracturing well yield prediction method and system coupled with physical driving and data driving |
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