CN106570644B - Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment - Google Patents
Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN106570644B CN106570644B CN201610978459.8A CN201610978459A CN106570644B CN 106570644 B CN106570644 B CN 106570644B CN 201610978459 A CN201610978459 A CN 201610978459A CN 106570644 B CN106570644 B CN 106570644B
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- transformation equipment
- power transmission
- health
- evaluation
- health condition
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Active
Links
- 230000009466 transformation Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 129
- 230000005540 biological transmission Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 127
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 33
- 238000011158 quantitative evaluation Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 14
- 230000036541 health Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 118
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 42
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 28
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 27
- 230000002159 abnormal effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 12
- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 12
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 10
- 238000007781 pre-processing Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 3
- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 claims description 32
- 238000009413 insulation Methods 0.000 claims description 21
- HYBBIBNJHNGZAN-UHFFFAOYSA-N furfural Chemical compound O=CC1=CC=CO1 HYBBIBNJHNGZAN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 20
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 14
- 238000007689 inspection Methods 0.000 claims description 14
- 238000009666 routine test Methods 0.000 claims description 10
- 238000006116 polymerization reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000004804 winding Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000009529 body temperature measurement Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000001816 cooling Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 230000033228 biological regulation Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000015556 catabolic process Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000006866 deterioration Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000010521 absorption reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000008030 elimination Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000003379 elimination reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000010287 polarization Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000004044 response Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000011179 visual inspection Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000002253 acid Substances 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000003862 health status Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000004861 thermometry Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 239000007789 gas Substances 0.000 description 11
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 description 8
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 description 8
- 239000004215 Carbon black (E152) Substances 0.000 description 5
- 229930195733 hydrocarbon Natural products 0.000 description 5
- 150000002430 hydrocarbons Chemical class 0.000 description 5
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 5
- 230000032683 aging Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000000491 multivariate analysis Methods 0.000 description 4
- 239000000126 substance Substances 0.000 description 4
- 239000001257 hydrogen Substances 0.000 description 3
- 229910052739 hydrogen Inorganic materials 0.000 description 3
- 238000013021 overheating Methods 0.000 description 3
- UFHFLCQGNIYNRP-UHFFFAOYSA-N Hydrogen Chemical compound [H][H] UFHFLCQGNIYNRP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 2
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000000875 corresponding effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000006731 degradation reaction Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000007774 longterm Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000010606 normalization Methods 0.000 description 2
- 239000001301 oxygen Substances 0.000 description 2
- 229910052760 oxygen Inorganic materials 0.000 description 2
- 230000009471 action Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000013459 approach Methods 0.000 description 1
- QVGXLLKOCUKJST-UHFFFAOYSA-N atomic oxygen Chemical compound [O] QVGXLLKOCUKJST-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 229920002678 cellulose Polymers 0.000 description 1
- 239000001913 cellulose Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000002596 correlated effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000010219 correlation analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012854 evaluation process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000006870 function Effects 0.000 description 1
- 150000002431 hydrogen Chemical class 0.000 description 1
- 239000012535 impurity Substances 0.000 description 1
- 210000001503 joint Anatomy 0.000 description 1
- 229920002521 macromolecule Polymers 0.000 description 1
- 239000000463 material Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000012821 model calculation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007935 neutral effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- -1 oxygen heterocyclic compound Chemical class 0.000 description 1
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005070 sampling Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000035882 stress Effects 0.000 description 1
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/20—Administration of product repair or maintenance
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Public Health (AREA)
- Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Housings And Mounting Of Transformers (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment, which comprises the following steps: establishing a quantitative index system of the power transmission and transformation equipment, wherein the evaluation factors of the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment specifically comprise evaluation factors of the oil-immersed power transmission and transformation equipment and evaluation factors of other power transmission and transformation equipment; collecting historical state data and current state data of the power transmission and transformation equipment; normalizing the collected data by adopting a statistical tool SPSS (statistical system) to test data, preprocessing abnormal values, and reserving overhigh abnormal values which exceed the range and are generated by the fault reason of the power transmission and transformation equipment; determining the relevance of each variable in the acquired data by a common coefficient analysis method; obtaining contribution values of all evaluation indexes in the process of evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment through a public factor correlation degree analysis method; and establishing a health index evaluation model of the power transmission and transformation equipment, calculating the health index of the power transmission and transformation equipment, and evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment according to the health index. The invention can comprehensively evaluate the overall health condition of the transformer.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of state safety of power transmission and transformation equipment, in particular to a power transmission and transformation equipment quantitative evaluation method based on a statistical tool.
Background
The direct and indirect expenses generated by planned blackout maintenance are huge every year, and the social influence is difficult to measure. In order to accurately and efficiently find the defects of the commissioning power transmission and transformation equipment, reduce the failure rate and reduce the operation risk, at present, a state maintenance mode is adopted at home and abroad. The maintenance mode depends on scientifically and comprehensively evaluating an index system and a calculation method aiming at the health state and the risk of the power equipment. Therefore, the health condition evaluation of the power transmission and transformation equipment is an important link in the whole life cycle evaluation of the power transmission and transformation equipment.
Some researches evaluate the insulation aging life of the power transmission and transformation equipment by taking a certain parameter of the equipment as a main characteristic quantity, but the characteristic parameter reflecting the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is an index system relating to multiple variables, and the accurate evaluation of the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment cannot be comprehensively realized by evaluating by using a single parameter.
At present, the determination of the weight of each index is usually based on expert experience or technical standards, and the index relationship is not studied in depth. The subjective factors are large, and then the evaluation of the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment has large errors.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention discloses a quantitative evaluation method of power transmission and transformation equipment based on a statistical tool, aiming at establishing a quantitative index system, adopting a statistical tool SPSS (statistical product and service solutions) to obtain public parameter association and contribution values to health indexes on the basis of researching the relationship among all parameters of the power transmission and transformation equipment, and finally determining quantitative weight and a health index evaluation model based on contribution analysis by using the statistical method, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the power transmission and transformation equipment and ensuring the reliable and stable operation of the power transmission and transformation equipment.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following specific scheme:
a power transmission and transformation equipment quantitative evaluation method based on a statistical tool comprises the following steps:
establishing a quantitative index system of the power transmission and transformation equipment, wherein the evaluation factors of the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment specifically comprise evaluation factors of the oil-immersed power transmission and transformation equipment and evaluation factors of other power transmission and transformation equipment;
collecting historical state data and current state data of the power transmission and transformation equipment;
normalizing the collected data by adopting a statistical tool SPSS (statistical system) to test data, preprocessing abnormal values, and reserving overhigh abnormal values which exceed the range and are generated by the fault reason of the power transmission and transformation equipment;
determining the relevance of each variable in the acquired data by a common coefficient analysis method;
obtaining contribution values of all evaluation indexes in the process of evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment through a public factor correlation degree analysis method;
and establishing a health index evaluation model of the power transmission and transformation equipment, calculating the health index of the power transmission and transformation equipment, and evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment according to the health index.
Further, the historical state data of the power transmission and transformation equipment comprises operation and inspection data, family defects, equipment basic information and load data of the power transmission and transformation equipment, and the current state data of the power transmission and transformation equipment comprises routine test data of the power transmission and transformation equipment.
Further, when the relevance of each variable in the collected data is determined by a common coefficient analysis method, unquantized factors and common factors which have certain influence on a test result are determined firstly, and the higher the relevance degree of the common factors and each variable is, the larger the coefficient value is, and the relevance degree between the common factors is mutual.
Further, the public factor association degree analysis method specifically comprises the steps of obtaining a public factor association degree analysis graph among multiple variables by using a statistical tool, and obtaining the relationship among all parameters and the contribution values of all evaluation indexes in the process of evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment according to the graph.
Further, the health index calculation steps of the power transmission and transformation equipment are mainly as follows:
1) analyzing the contribution value of the public factors to the health index on the basis of the analysis of the relevance of the public factors;
2) determining the weight of each health index;
3) formulating a correction factor according to expert experience and standard regulation;
4) modifying the weight by a modification factor;
5) and (4) obtaining a health index, and evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment.
Further, the oil-immersed power transmission and transformation equipment carries out layered evaluation on the health condition according to different components, and the calculation formula is as follows:
the health condition of other power transmission and transformation equipment is evaluated in a layered mode according to different components, and the calculation formula is as follows (2):
in the formula, KiAs a weight, HIFiFor health index, HIFmaxThe health index corresponding to the optimal health condition.
Further, the evaluation factors of the oil-immersed power transmission and transformation equipment include: paper insulation polymerization degree, furfural, dissolved gas in oil, moisture, acid value, breakdown voltage, oil dielectric loss factor, infrared temperature measurement, defect data, load history, appearance inspection, equipment basic information and routine tests, bushing-appearance, bushing-infrared temperature measurement, bushing-dissolved gas in oil, bushing-insulation resistance, cooling system-patrol record, tap switch-operation data, tap switch-action characteristic, tap switch-decomposed gas in oil and non-electric quantity protection-patrol record.
Further, the evaluation factors of other electric transmission and transformation equipment in the evaluation factors of the health condition of the electric transmission and transformation equipment include: infrared thermometry, defect data, load history, visual inspection, basic information and routine testing and non-battery protection-patrol records.
Further, the defect data comprises two parts of the device and the family defect, and the defect record comprises the defects found in the operation inspection, the maintenance inspection, the live detection and the maintenance process, the defect grading and the defect elimination processing conditions.
Further, the basic information of the equipment mainly comprises the nameplate information of the power transmission and transformation equipment, the voltage grade, the capacity and the short-circuit impedance; routine tests include winding dc resistance, winding dielectric loss factor, capacitance, frequency response testing, winding insulation resistance, absorption ratio or polarization index, and leakage current.
Further, the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is graded according to the health index:
the health index is 85-100, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: the condition is excellent;
the health index is 70-85, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: the situation is good;
the health index is 50-70, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: the method is good;
the health index is 30-50, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: poor performance;
the health index is 0-30, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: the deterioration is severe.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention comprehensively considers the history and the current state data of the transformer, including basic information, routine tests and operation and maintenance data.
According to the method, a statistical tool is adopted, and based on test data, analysis and research are carried out on the relationship among all parameters of the transformer and the contribution values of all parameters to the total health index, the weight of all indexes is deduced, and the calculation process of the health index is given.
The method starts from the establishment of a power transformer index system in a layering manner, and then analyzes 87 groups of transformer oil sample test data by adopting a statistical tool SPSS, and researches the relationship among all factors and the contribution value of all parameters to the total health index. The statistical tool SPSS can be used for weighting the index system and establishing a health index calculation model. The research can be expanded to the field of power transmission and transformation equipment evaluation for popularization and application in the future.
The health index evaluation model based on SPSS analysis is applied to power transmission and transformation equipment in an expanded mode, various equipment is analyzed through SPSS, weights are given, and the health condition of the equipment is evaluated in a comprehensive layered and index-based mode.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a graph of correlation analysis of common factors;
FIG. 2 is a health index evaluation model based on a contribution analysis;
FIG. 3 evaluation of health of electric transmission and transformation equipment.
The specific implementation mode is as follows:
the invention is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings:
the invention establishes a comprehensive health condition evaluation model of the power transmission and transformation equipment based on health indexes, the model carries out multi-parameter statistical analysis on the layering and the sub-components of the power transmission and transformation equipment, and a quantitative index system is established aiming at two layers of historical data (operation and inspection data, family defects, basic information of the equipment and loads) and current data (routine test data) and different components. A statistical tool SPSS (statistical product and service sources) is adopted, on the basis of researching the relation among all parameters of the power transmission and transformation equipment, the public parameter association degree and the contribution value to the health index are obtained, and finally a statistical method is utilized to determine the quantitative weight and the health index evaluation model based on the contribution degree analysis. And finally, taking a transformer which is actually operated by a Shandong power grid as an example, the validity of the state evaluation model of the power transmission and transformation equipment based on the health index is verified, and a scientific basis is provided for state evaluation and overhaul of the power transmission and transformation equipment.
In order to research the health condition of the electric power transmission and transformation equipment, an index system needs to be established firstly. The characteristic quantities reflecting the health state of the electric transmission and transformation equipment comprise electrical characteristics, chemical characteristics, mechanical characteristics and appearance representations. The part layer is divided into a body, a sleeve, a tap switch, a cooling system and non-electric quantity protection, and the proportion of each part in the evaluation is calculated and reflected through a final health index.
Oil paper insulation system test
Since the oiled paper is degraded under the conditions of electric and thermal operation and with the action of excessive oxygen and moisture in the environment, the aging substances (such as CO and CO) generated by degradation in the oil can be tested2Furfural, etc.) and paper insulation polymerization degree, and the health condition of the transformer is measured.
(1) Degree of polymerization of paper insulation
The degree of polymerization reflects the tensile strength mechanical properties of paper, and the criterion of the degree of polymerization is continuously updated with the application of new materials. Currently, it is widely believed that the degree of polymerization of paper insulation for new transformers is mostly around 1000. The criterion of the degree of polymerization of paper insulation is shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 paper insulation polymerization degree Limit
(2) Furfural
During the deterioration of the board, the cellulose macromolecules are degraded before a main oxygen heterocyclic compound is formed. The factors influencing the furfural content in the operation process of the power transmission and transformation equipment have multiple aspects, including the oil-paper ratio and the manufacturing process, the operation time, the operation conditions, the load rate and the transformer oil treatment mode of the power transmission and transformation equipment. The furfural content is also increased when faults such as insulation local overheating aging, overload and the like occur to the power transmission and transformation equipment. The furfural content is measured by sampling transformer oil, and low furfural content indicates high strength of the oil paper of the power transmission and transformation equipment, good performance and good overall condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment.
(3) Dissolved gases in oil
Dissolved gas in oil is a widely used fault monitoring and prevention means. Under the long-term action of electrothermal stress, the molecular structure of the oil and paper insulating system of electric transmission and transformation equipment is changed, and various characteristic gases, such as hydrogen, hydrocarbon and hydrocarbon, are generated through a series of chemical reactions.
Methods are developed at home and abroad, and can be used for judging the internal faults of the transformer by judging the proportion of dissolved gas in oil, such as: overheating, poor electrical contact, partial discharge, etc. CO/CO2< 5, indicating that the oiled paper degrades rapidly. CO 22when/CO is more than 7, insulation aging or large-area low-temperature overheating fault is indicated. Of course, when the power transmission and transformation equipment is in failure, the transformer oil can also decompose CO and CO2A gas. No matter the deterioration or the failure of the oil paper of the power transmission and transformation equipment can be attributed to the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment, therefore, the comprehensive consideration of CO and CO2。
Second, operation and maintenance data and routine test
The basic information of the equipment mainly comprises the information of a name plate of the transformer, the voltage grade, the capacity, the short-circuit impedance and the like. Routine tests comprise winding direct current resistance, winding dielectric loss factor, capacitance, frequency response tests, winding insulation resistance, absorption ratio or polarization index, leakage current and the like, and whether technical requirements are met or not is judged.
(1) Defect data
Including both the device itself and the family defect. The defect records comprise defects found in the operation inspection, the overhaul inspection, the live-line detection and the overhaul process, defect grading and defect elimination processing conditions.
(2) History of load
The maximum load value, overload or long-term emergency load operation regulations recorded monthly during the last 12 months of the equipment can degrade transformer performance.
(3) Infrared temperature measurement
The infrared thermal image can detect the transformer body, the lead connectors and the cable terminals, and the infrared thermal image display should not have abnormal temperature rise, temperature difference and/or relative temperature difference and can reveal hidden dangers inside the transformer.
(4) Visual inspection
The appearance of the equipment is complete and lossless without foreign matters mainly by looking up the patrol records; whether the lead, the bus bar and the joint are normal or not; whether grounding is reliable; noise and vibration; whether the air duct is unobstructed or not, no foreign matters and the like.
Multivariate analysis based on statistical tools
(1) Data normalization
An important hypothetical condition for multivariate analysis is that the data belong to a normal distribution. The test results are not usually normally distributed, but rather have varying degrees of deviation. First, the abnormal data is normalized by the SPSS tool using the transformation tool. The SPSS is a data statistical analysis tool, is convenient for data butt joint, and has a built-in VBA language and a powerful statistical processing function. After the SPSS is used for normalizing the test data, the excessively high abnormal value exceeding the range exists in the original data, the abnormal value is ignored in multivariate analysis, the abnormal value needs to be preprocessed, and the abnormal value generated by the fault reason of the power transmission and transformation equipment is reserved.
(2) Common coefficient analysis
Unknown relevance may exist in the results of some types of electric transmission and transformation equipment test items, and relevance of each variable is determined by a common coefficient analysis method. The SPSS tool is used for carrying out statistical analysis on the test results of multiple times to obtain the influence of the relation between different test items and the public influence factor on each item.
The boxes in fig. 1 represent the test results, and e 1-e 12 represent unquantized factors that have certain influence on the test results, such as ambient temperature and humidity, electromagnetic environment interference, test errors, and the like. C1-C5 are common factors, and the higher their degree of association with each variable, the larger the coefficient value. The degrees of association of C1-C5 with each other are indicated by double-headed arrows.
(3) Common factor relevance analysis
In the evaluation of the health state of the electric power transmission and transformation equipment, the performance condition of the oil paper insulation system is one of the most important indexes. Generally, the life of the oil paper insulation system directly determines the life of the oil-filled transformer. Therefore, statistical analysis is mainly performed on 87 groups of transformer oil sample test data, the relation among all parameters is firstly researched, and then the contribution values of all evaluation indexes in the process of evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment are obtained. The analysis of the correlation degree of common factors among multiple variables is shown in FIG. 1.
As shown in fig. 1, substances having similar properties or generated along with the same chemical reaction are classified into one group. Under the condition of electric and thermal operation, when the oil paper is degraded and aged or the transformer is in failure, the decomposed gases CO and CO in the oil2Usually concomitant chemical products; the higher the contents of impurities and moisture in the transformer oil are, the easier the transformer oil is to break down, and the parameters with large influence relations are divided into the same group. H2、CH4、C2H6Is a highly correlated set of parameters, related to the common factor C3.
The positive correlation between C2 and C3 is the strongest and is 0.53; the degree of association of C1 and C3 is second, and the association coefficient is 0.47; the relationship between C4 and C5 is negative. The relationship analysis between each characteristic parameter and each public factor lays a foundation for further determining the parameter weight and the health index.
Fourth, evaluation model of health index of power transmission and transformation equipment
Establishing a health index model based on SPSS analysis; the establishing process of the model comprises the following steps:
based on multivariate analysis of a statistical tool, carrying out normalization processing on the non-normal data by using a transformation tool;
carrying out statistical analysis on the multiple test results by using an SPSS tool to obtain the influence of the relation between different test projects and the public influence factor on each project;
the health index calculation steps of the power transmission and transformation equipment are mainly as follows:
1) analyzing the contribution value of the public factors to the health index HI on the basis of public factor relationship analysis;
2) further determining each health index weight;
3) formulating a correction factor according to expert experience and standard regulation;
4) modifying the weight by a modification factor;
5) and (4) obtaining a health index, and evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment.
Wherein, the first step is a key step, and a health index evaluation model based on contribution degree analysis is shown in figure 2.
As shown in fig. 2, C4 has the greatest effect on the health index, including three parameters, namely breakdown voltage, furfural, and moisture, and therefore, the highest weight is given to it in the evaluation system. The water in the oil of the power transmission and transformation equipment plays an important role in the degradation process of the insulation characteristic of the transformer. The furfural content reflects the performance of the oil paper insulation system of the power transmission and transformation equipment to a certain degree, and the higher the furfural content is, the worse the insulation performance is. The grouping and weighting obtained by the statistical analysis are substantially consistent with the existing conclusions. When the health condition of the electric transmission and transformation equipment is evaluated, the weight distribution needs to be further corrected by adopting a correction factor, so that the evaluation process is closer to the actual production field. Finally, the weight and health index HIF of each main item are obtained.
The oil-immersed power transmission and transformation equipment carries out layered evaluation on the health condition according to different components, and the calculation formula is shown as the formula (1).
And (3) carrying out layered evaluation on the health condition of other power transmission and transformation equipment according to different components, wherein the calculation formula is shown as the formula (2).
In the formula, KiAs a weight, HIFiFor health index, HIFmaxThe health index corresponding to the optimal health condition.
TABLE 2 health index rating
TABLE 3 evaluation factor weights and scores for health status of transformers
TABLE 4 evaluation factor weight and score for health condition of other electric transmission and transformation equipments
More detailed implementation examples:
a110 kV Zhengyang station No. 2 main transformer is SZ10-50000/110 in specification and model, 220kV in voltage level, 50MVA in capacity, self-cooling in a cooling mode, produced by Shandong Luneng Taishan electric power equipment Limited company, and put into operation in 2008 for 4 months, has been operated for 22 years, and has a scrap life of 30 years.
A220 kV Baudou transformer substation No. 2 main transformer is of specification type SFPSZ9-150000/220, voltage class 220kV, capacity 150MVA, manufactured by Shandong power equipment Limited company, and put into operation in 12 months in 2002, has been operated for 14 years, and has the rejection age of 30 years. The operating and test data for the two transformers are shown in table 5.
In table 4, the number (1) corresponds to the data of the main transformer of the Zhengyang station No. 2, and the HIF% of the transformer of the 110kV Zhengyang station No. 2 is 49.182 calculated by the formula (1), and is located in the interval of 30% -50%And the overall operation condition is poor and is close to or slightly exceeds the standard limit value, the operation is monitored, and the power failure maintenance is scheduled in time. The actual condition of the equipment is as follows: the excessive hydrogen is more than 90 percent of the total amount of hydrogen and hydrocarbon, the excessive total hydrocarbon is CH4The gas accounts for more than 75 percent of the total hydrocarbon, and the characteristic gas is judged to be partial discharge according to the criterion. The code of the three-ratio method is 010, and partial discharge is judged. The dielectric loss of the high-voltage side neutral point sleeve exceeds the standard, the capacitance approaches an alarm value, and the main transformer is normally tested in a conventional way. In conclusion, the overall operation of the plant is poor and close to the end of life. Therefore, the calculated value obtained by the health index method is basically consistent with the actual condition.
In order to comprehensively verify the validity of the model, 220kV Baudou station main transformers with different voltage grades, different working conditions and different defects are selected, wherein the serial number (2) is the basic information and test data of the transformer. Compared with the example 1, although the same defect exists, the two properties are different, the experimental data are also greatly different, the HIF is 78.052 through model calculation, and the model result shows that the equipment has good running condition. Actual operating conditions: the transformer operates for 14 years, all indexes are basically normal, no unfavorable working condition exists, although serious defects in the aspect of the subcooler exist, the operation is eliminated, and the transformer operates normally at present. The evaluation result is well matched with the actual condition.
TABLE 5 Transformer operation and test data
In addition, in order to better verify the consistency of the model evaluation, 12 110kV transformers with different electrical parameters and defect properties in the Shandong power grid are selected, and the health index HIF of each transformer is shown in figure 3.
In the calculation results, the minimum value is 54.346, the maximum value is 78.326, the total content of the 50% -70% interval is 25%, the total content of the 70% -85% interval is 75%, the overall operation condition is good, and the health index of an individual transformer is low due to family defects or the coming due of annual inspection and overhaul, and basically accords with the actual condition. And selecting a plurality of transformers in different operation stages and electrical parameters and different evaluation states from the Shandong power grid, calculating and comparing, and verifying the effectiveness of the evaluation model and the calculation method.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described with reference to the accompanying drawings, it is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and it should be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications and variations can be made without inventive efforts by those skilled in the art based on the technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A power transmission and transformation equipment quantitative evaluation method based on a statistical tool is characterized by comprising the following steps:
establishing a quantitative index system of the power transmission and transformation equipment, wherein the evaluation factors of the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment specifically comprise evaluation factors of the oil-immersed power transmission and transformation equipment and evaluation factors of other power transmission and transformation equipment;
collecting historical state data and current state data of the power transmission and transformation equipment;
normalizing the collected data by adopting a statistical tool SPSS (statistical system) to test data, preprocessing abnormal values, and reserving overhigh abnormal values which exceed the range and are generated by the fault reason of the power transmission and transformation equipment;
determining the relevance of each variable in the acquired data by a common coefficient analysis method;
obtaining contribution values of all evaluation indexes in the process of evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment through a public factor correlation degree analysis method;
establishing a health index evaluation model of the power transmission and transformation equipment, calculating a health index of the power transmission and transformation equipment, and evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment according to the health index;
the oil immersed power transmission and transformation equipment carries out layered evaluation on the health condition according to different components, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein i is the serial number of the evaluation item of the oil-immersed power transmission and transformation equipment, and KiIn order to be the weight, the weight is,HIFifor health index, HIFmaxThe health index corresponding to the optimal health condition;
the health condition of other power transmission and transformation equipment is evaluated in a layered mode according to different components, and the calculation formula is as follows (2):
wherein i is the serial number of other evaluation factors of the power transmission and transformation equipment, KiAs a weight, HIFiFor health index, HIFmaxThe health index corresponding to the optimal health condition;
the evaluation factors of the other electric transmission and transformation equipment in the evaluation factors of the health condition of the electric transmission and transformation equipment comprise: infrared thermometry, defect data, load history, visual inspection, basic information and routine testing and non-battery protection-patrol records.
2. The statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for electric transmission and transformation equipment according to claim 1, wherein the historical state data of the electric transmission and transformation equipment comprises operation and inspection data, family defects, equipment basic information and load data of the electric transmission and transformation equipment, and the current state data of the electric transmission and transformation equipment comprises routine test data of the electric transmission and transformation equipment.
3. The quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment based on the statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, wherein when the relevance of each variable in the collected data is determined by the method of common coefficient analysis, the unquantized factors and the common factors which have certain influence on the test result are determined first, and the higher the relevance degree of the common factors to each variable is, the larger the coefficient value is, the relevance degree between the common factors is mutual.
4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the analysis method of the public factor relevance is to obtain an analysis chart of the public factor relevance among multiple variables by using the statistical tool, and to obtain the relationship among the parameters and the contribution values of the evaluation indexes in evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment according to the analysis chart.
5. The quantitative evaluation method for the electric transmission and transformation equipment based on the statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, wherein the calculation steps of the health index of the electric transmission and transformation equipment are mainly as follows:
1) analyzing the contribution value of the public factors to the health index on the basis of the analysis of the relevance of the public factors;
2) determining the weight of each health index;
3) formulating a correction factor according to expert experience and standard regulation;
4) modifying the weight by a modification factor;
5) and (4) obtaining a health index, and evaluating the overall health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment.
6. The statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for the electric transmission and transformation equipment according to claim 1, wherein evaluation factors of the oil-immersed electric transmission and transformation equipment comprise: paper insulation polymerization degree, furfural, dissolved gas in oil, moisture, acid value, breakdown voltage, oil dielectric loss factor, infrared temperature measurement, defect data, load history, appearance inspection, equipment basic information and routine tests, bushing-appearance, bushing-infrared temperature measurement, bushing-dissolved gas in oil, bushing-insulation resistance, cooling system-patrol record, tap switch-operation data, tap switch-action characteristic, tap switch-decomposed gas in oil and non-electric quantity protection-patrol record.
7. The statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for electric transmission and transformation equipment according to claim 6, wherein the defect data includes two parts, namely equipment defects and family defects, and the defect records include defects found in operation inspection, inspection, live inspection and inspection, defect grading and defect elimination processing conditions.
8. The quantitative evaluation method for the electric transmission and transformation equipment based on the statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, wherein the basic information of the equipment mainly comprises the nameplate information of the electric transmission and transformation equipment, the voltage level, the capacity and the short-circuit impedance; routine tests include winding dc resistance, winding dielectric loss factor, capacitance, frequency response testing, winding insulation resistance, absorption ratio or polarization index, and leakage current.
9. The statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for electric transmission and transformation equipment according to claim 1, wherein the health status of the electric transmission and transformation equipment is graded according to the health index:
the health index is 85-100, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: the condition is excellent;
the health index is 70-85, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: the situation is good;
the health index is 50-70, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: the method is good;
the health index is 30-50, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: poor performance;
the health index is 0-30, and the health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment is as follows: the deterioration is severe.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201610978459.8A CN106570644B (en) | 2016-11-04 | 2016-11-04 | Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201610978459.8A CN106570644B (en) | 2016-11-04 | 2016-11-04 | Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN106570644A CN106570644A (en) | 2017-04-19 |
| CN106570644B true CN106570644B (en) | 2020-05-05 |
Family
ID=58540063
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201610978459.8A Active CN106570644B (en) | 2016-11-04 | 2016-11-04 | Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN106570644B (en) |
Families Citing this family (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107730079A (en) * | 2017-09-15 | 2018-02-23 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment defect portrait method based on data mining |
| CN109507553B (en) * | 2018-12-04 | 2021-07-20 | 武汉大学 | Novel three-dimensional evaluation scheme for application feasibility of gas insulation medium |
| CN111289812A (en) * | 2018-12-07 | 2020-06-16 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司 | Power transmission and transformation equipment state monitoring and management method and system |
| CN110442898B (en) * | 2019-06-14 | 2023-06-09 | 广东电网有限责任公司江门供电局 | Power transmission line health condition model online optimization method |
| CN113177294A (en) * | 2021-04-06 | 2021-07-27 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司检修公司 | Data joint analysis method applied to transformer oiliness detection test |
Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105139294A (en) * | 2015-09-23 | 2015-12-09 | 国网山西省电力公司大同供电公司 | Power transmission and transformation device state evaluation method based on electrification detection |
| CN105184664A (en) * | 2015-07-31 | 2015-12-23 | 国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院 | Three-dimensional state evaluation and maintenance strategy of electric transmission and transformation equipment |
| CN105260814A (en) * | 2015-09-15 | 2016-01-20 | 国家电网公司 | Power transmission and transformation equipment evaluation model and processing method based on big data |
| CN105354768A (en) * | 2015-11-27 | 2016-02-24 | 广州供电局有限公司 | Assessment method and system for electric transmission and transformation equipment states |
| CN105404936A (en) * | 2015-11-24 | 2016-03-16 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Method for evaluating health index of distribution transformer |
| CN106446426A (en) * | 2016-09-29 | 2017-02-22 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Health index based power transformer evaluation method |
Family Cites Families (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO2006128397A1 (en) * | 2005-06-02 | 2006-12-07 | Siemens Aktiengesellschaft | Method for avoiding undesired, measurement error-induced protective tripping within a protection system of an hvdc transmission system |
-
2016
- 2016-11-04 CN CN201610978459.8A patent/CN106570644B/en active Active
Patent Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105184664A (en) * | 2015-07-31 | 2015-12-23 | 国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院 | Three-dimensional state evaluation and maintenance strategy of electric transmission and transformation equipment |
| CN105260814A (en) * | 2015-09-15 | 2016-01-20 | 国家电网公司 | Power transmission and transformation equipment evaluation model and processing method based on big data |
| CN105139294A (en) * | 2015-09-23 | 2015-12-09 | 国网山西省电力公司大同供电公司 | Power transmission and transformation device state evaluation method based on electrification detection |
| CN105404936A (en) * | 2015-11-24 | 2016-03-16 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Method for evaluating health index of distribution transformer |
| CN105354768A (en) * | 2015-11-27 | 2016-02-24 | 广州供电局有限公司 | Assessment method and system for electric transmission and transformation equipment states |
| CN106446426A (en) * | 2016-09-29 | 2017-02-22 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Health index based power transformer evaluation method |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 配网设备状态评价与风险评估模型的探索研究;于婧洋;《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库 工程科技Ⅱ辑》;第C042-538/4、10-16页;20160615;第C042-538/4、10-16页 * |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN106570644A (en) | 2017-04-19 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN106446426B (en) | A kind of power transformer appraisal procedure based on health index | |
| CN106570644B (en) | Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment | |
| CN110297167B (en) | Transformer aging state evaluation method based on multi-source information fusion | |
| CN106908674B (en) | Transformer state evaluation method based on multi-state quantity prediction | |
| CN101726514B (en) | Oil-immersed type transformer solid insulation moisture content assessment method based on return voltage | |
| CN103605881A (en) | Fault tree and analytic hierarchy process based evaluation method of state of power transformer | |
| CN101738572A (en) | Method for testing service life of medium-voltage solid insulation power cable | |
| Arvind et al. | Condition monitoring of power transformer: A review | |
| CN106199234A (en) | A kind of transformator residual life detection method based on health index | |
| Abu-Elanien et al. | Survey on the transformer condition monitoring | |
| Niţu et al. | Power transformer fault diagnosis using fuzzy logic technique based on dissolved gas analysis and furan analysis | |
| Jian et al. | The new developed health index for power transformer condition assessment | |
| Tamma et al. | Assessment of high voltage power transformer aging condition based on health index value considering its apparent and actual age | |
| Saeid et al. | Interaction of transformer oil parameters on each other and on transformer health index using curve estimation regression method | |
| CN109615557B (en) | Substation equipment maintenance management system | |
| CN116840614A (en) | Cable line defect sensing and early warning method based on harmonic fluctuation characteristics | |
| CN113075268A (en) | Insulation sleeve X-wax defect detection method and system based on FDS | |
| CN108536911B (en) | Converter transformer state evaluation method based on center distance and sample characteristics | |
| Daghrah et al. | Assessment of in-service transformers filled with synthetic ester at 33 kV and below | |
| Wang et al. | Condition assessment for power transformer using health index | |
| Yang et al. | Research on transformer condition evaluation based on oil chromatography differentiation threshold | |
| Jiang et al. | Research Progress and Prospect of Condition Assessment Techniques for Oil–Paper Insulation Used in Power Systems: A Review | |
| CN110927488B (en) | Transformer running state monitoring method based on membership function | |
| Mo et al. | A failure probability model of the moistened oil-paper insulation of transformers based on strength-stress model | |
| Kaur et al. | Performance Assessment of IEEE/IEC Method and Duval Triangle technique for Transformer Incipient Fault Diagnosis |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |