CN105676266A - Method and system for earthquake forecasting and prediction - Google Patents
Method and system for earthquake forecasting and prediction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for earthquake forecasting and prediction. The earth rotates by taking a connecting line of the Antarctic and the Arctic as an axis, vertical distances from plates positioned at different latitudes to the axis are different, the plates at low latitudes on both sides of the equator has maximum rotation radius, highest speed, largest plate mass and largest momentum. With the increasing north and south latitudes, the plate rotation radius reduces, the speed decreases, the plate mass reduces, the momentum reduces, the large momentum of the low-latitude plates generates increment of the momentum to the small momentum of the high-latitude plates, that is, an impulse acting force is the only power source of earthquake outbreak. The impulse acting force squeezes high-latitude lithosphere, the lithosphere becomes a stress accumulation carrier through time accumulation and spatial accumulation of the impulse acting force after many years, the plate lithosphere is forced to bend and deform, and elastic energy is accumulated. A geological drilling rig is used for drilling 1-15 km deep inside a rock stratum, a rock core is taken out, various kinds of instruments and meters are installed at the hole bottom, various parameters of the lithosphere generated in deformation and bending by squeeze are sent to national and local government functional departments by using a mobile phone system or a GPS system timely and automatically, and the earthquake occurring time can be known through analysis and research by experts, thereby completing pre-earthquake forecasting and prediction.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method and system of earthquake forecast.
Background technology
Dead more than 23 ten thousand people of 8.5 grades of earthquakes of nineteen twenty Ningxia Haiyuan; Dead more than 240,000 people of 7.8 grades of Tangshans earthquake in 1976; Dead more than 80,000 people of 8.0 grades of earthquakes of Wenchuan County in Sichuan in 2008; The dead nearly 10000 people of 8.1 grades of earthquakes of Nepal's on April 25th, 2015, wound more than ten thousand people, cultural relics and historic sites are suffered heavy losses, and feed through to some areas ground cleave of China Tibet, house collapse etc. Dead 25000 people of 9 grades of Japanese east coasts violent earthquake on March 11st, 2011, damage more than 30 ten thousand, house, cause the disaster such as Oc ean Tsunami, Nuclear Power Station leakage pollution soil and the Pacific Ocean seawater shock whole world, left many endless thinking difficult problems to the ground seismologist of educational circles and common people. Earthquake is that the number of casualties is maximum, society, economy and property loss at most, the most miserable natural calamity.
One, what is the power source that starts earthquake? what is the physical mechanism of earthquake? what is real dynamics? how to shake front forecast?
1910 American engineer Reed (H.F.Reid) " elastic rebound theory " proposed be used to explain the mechanism of san francisco, usa earthquake in 1906, and as one of important models of earthquake preparation. But not solving earthquake, this " theory " how to occur, what does is its power source? just explaining that ruptured during the 50 years far point on opposite of ground has moved 3.2m (6.4m), moves to north north east direction in west side. Separately have in expert's book and have: " its Main Basis is along San Francisco violent earthquake, and the rock mass that seismogenic fault two coils exists the long dislocation of 6.4m. And on the surface of this tomography, also having when earthquake two to coil the vestige of the reciprocal changing of the relative positions of rock mass, this is the strong demonstration of elastic resilience theory. " just see little by little breakoff phenomenon of ground surface, the origin cause of formation how earthquake occurs is not known anything, over more than 100 year, always be at surface seismic scene and have a look at. Earthquake mechanism mechanism for underground tens kilometers of following lithosphere great variety is entirely ignorant of! " elastic resilience " theory does not find earthquake physical mechanism and breed overall process, and is the huge energy of the astronomical number that is that mountains collapse and the earth crack up of not knowing to kill most from where? earthquake prediction is cut little ice. In nineteen twenty-three Earthquakes in Japan scholar, the wild ground first motion four-quadrant of extensively first finding seismographic record distributes, the 1950's, the scientist of the former Soviet Union proposed " equivalent dislocatioln theory " (" earthquake outline " the 58th page of the seismic origin, Zhao Ke often writes) do not these theories all solve what is " power source " that discharged the extremely earthquake of huge energy on earth? why having so huge energy, what is the dynamics of the real power source in earthquake volcano? what does is the physical mechanism of earthquake?
Within 1964, graduate from Peking University's palegeology series structure specialty, within 1986, obtain French doctorate, the will qin academician that permitted that nineteen ninety-five is elected as the Chinese Academy of Sciences waits " Qinghai-Tibet continental dynamics " (Geology Publishing House publication) and the Jiang Mei (researcher of Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences at her, be engaged in for a long time mining area geophysics and seismic survey infrastructure research), Wang Youxue (the professor of Guilin University of Technology, be engaged in teaching and the teaching and research work of geophysics specialty, main direction of studying is earth ' s internal structure and geodynamics), Qian Hui (the Institute of Geology continental dynamics laboratory assistant researcher of geology in China institute, main direction of studying is receiver function, the research of tomography and comprehensive geology) jointly show that " plateau of orogenetic "---" wideband seismic survey and the Crust and Upper-mantle Structure of Qinghai-Tibet Platean and adjacent area thereof " be totally 420 K word one books. contributed a foreword by permitting will qin academician: " Qinghai-Tibet Platean has particular geometry and geomorphologic landscape, quick high, the thickest and the most up-to-date continental land mass in the world of protuberance. Qinghai-Tibet Platean is made up of many terrains, has experienced the long-term dynamics process of the evolution of tethys ocean basin and the amalgamation of many terrain/archipelago arcs, many hit/many orogenetic of underriding/multipacting. before India-Asia collision, its predecessor is that body is pieced in the huge compound collision orogenetic having formed since Eopaleozoic together, it is the most grand event of the Cenozoic on the earth that India-Asia collides the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet causing, and forming unpatrolled plateau landforms and periphery is the constructed screen of high and steep mountain chain precipitous, violent fluctuating. therefore Qinghai-Tibet Platean be otherwise known as " plateau of orogenetic ". the glamour of Qinghai-Tibet Platean becomes ground scholars' eternal classroom, becomes best laboratory and the window of current " continental dynamics " research. so " under the guidance of this " the long-term dynamics processes of hit/many orogenetic of multipacting ", the TV programme in night on the 26th November in 2015 have occurred between Indian and eurasian plate, having large-area seawater, the picture that then has animation face to collide in opposite directions. be subject to exactly the guidance of this theory.
The theory following points of mistake:
1, collision concept mistake: in physics " collision " be defined as: " if two or more object meets, while meeting, the interaction between object only continues the very of short duration time, this meet be exactly collide ". (university teaching materials) such as the shock that comprises ball, piling, wrought iron. Between the surperficial plate and plate of the earth, between plot and plot, meet already tens hundred million years, how can occur from newly meeting in the very of short duration time suddenly? so there is not the collision problem between plate and plate, plot and plot on the earth, it can only be extruding. Why can push? the author below describes in detail separately. In " mechanics problem of earthquake prediction " book of Ding Wenjing professor, just not there is " collision " word.
2, in the preamble on " plateau of orogenetic " " the thick and the most up-to-date the highest continental land mass in the world swelling fast ". this conclusion is wrong, the epoch of protuberance pass by already fast, the condition of quick protuberance is because the looser material of extruding swells fast, if the thick and the most up-to-date the highest continental land mass in the world swelling fast before hard crustal rock layer forms ". what does is your protuberance active force so? the length of the as clear as noonday thick and 2500km that is writing 70-100km (kilometer) in many data, has the especially big plate of km more than 1000. do not have the great force of astronomical number how can grand liter? be you " tethys ocean basin develop and the amalgamation of many terrain/archipelago arcs, the long-term dynamics process of many hit/many orogenetic of underriding/multipacting? where be " tethys ocean basin "? how about develop? also have from Qinghai-Tibet Platean " distance of one hundred and eight thousand li "? does is more crucial your dynamic (dynamical) " power " where? so must get back to again you and Yang Jingsui, Li Haibing, Zhang Jianxin, Zeng Lingsen, Guan Mei, Qi Xuexiang, Cui Wenjun, Chen Fangyuan etc. expert, professor, " Qinghai-Tibet continental dynamics " and " terrain amalgamation that the high titles such as researcher are collaborateed, the deep driving force of collision orogenetic and uplift " monumental work of totally 750 K words. what does is the power that there is no from the beginning to the end " dynamics "? more can not find what is " deep driving force "? what is again " archipelago arc amalgamation, the long-term dynamics process of many hit/many orogenetic of underriding/multipacting " this " archipelago arc " where? what is? how can amalgamation? there is no active force, do not have the power source could " amalgamation "? whom do be " many orogenetic is hit in many underriding/multipacting " who collides? who again many " underridings " who? know that the active force in " dynamics " is " vector ", so-called " vector " is repeatedly repeated collision of directive power! " plate " more than in the first two " terrain " or two of collision will have the speed of motion, there are acceleration and the impulse force of motion to collide, does is this speed approximately how many so? is impulse force from where? there is about active force to be how many? it is central collision? elastic collision? or inelastic collision? does interactional momentum acceleration impulse force come wherefrom? again how to form collision? what does not all have, being false so permit the following multidigit expert's of academician above-mentioned theory, is not science! so must ask the appearance of the mankind's mechanics great master founder newton's the first law of motion: " any object all keeps the state of static or linear uniform motion, until the power of other object effects forces it to change this state ". this is the teaching material during junior physics is learned, and everybody knows, in other words: the title of " plateau of orogenetic " this this book itself just has flaw, and " plateau " do not have the energy of orogenetic, can not create energy, just can not orogenetic. mountain, not that make on plateau, the motive power of orogenetic must be " power of other object effects " in Newton's laws of motion, there is no the just impossible orogenetic of power of other object effects, what does is so real orogenesis power? comprise the active force in earthquake, volcano yes the unprecedented global key subjects that the present invention must answer, below necessarily describe one by one, just a moment,please. besides the same mistake of first Book " Xu Zhiqin studies fruit series (one) Qinghai-Tibet continental dynamics (academician) " is " terrain amalgamation, the deep driving force of collision orogenetic and uplift ". only have proposition, there is no evidence, not demonstration, the mechanism that does not have physics mechanics to form, does not more find " power of other object effects " just impossible orogenetic, can not form plateau, more there is no " deep driving force ". the accumulated time of the power that there is no acceleration, there is no kinetic energy momentum, there is no, do not have power spatial summation, there is no momentum and merit, there is no energy, do not have cumulative effect etc. just there is no the active force of orogenic movement without power, so-called " dynamics " is an empty verbiage just, be false, not science, the power source that can not find plate motion is from where, just can not form Qinghai-Tibet Platean, what does is the power source that more can not find Explosion earthquake, volcano to occur? the more impossible world-famous puzzle of realizing the front prime time forecast of earthquake, more impossible earthquake zero injures and deaths that realize! so the multidigit expert below academician, professor, doctor, researcher's academy's successes are false perhaps, because do not conform to physics, mechanics, there is no dynamic (dynamical) basis yet, separately there are many erroneous point, because the relation of length can not put forward common investigation one by one, please understand. what is the real power of uplift of Qinghai-Tibet and deep driving force about, below will states, common investigation please ask a question.
In the 40th page of professor's Li Xianggen work " Earthquake In China tectonic movement " " the plate tectonice motion when theoretical foundation of seismotectonics motion is the late Cenozoic ... ". Again " tectonic earthquake " theory, mistake.
The 60th page of " the earthquake outline " write professor Zhao Kechang: " after elastic rebound theory proposes, earthquake educational circles generally believes, earthquake is that earth top occurs slide suddenly and produce along a geological fracture. The elastic strain energy both sides rock that makes to rupture of storage knock-ons to position in a basic balance. Under normal conditions, the region of distortion is longer, wider, and the energy of release is just more, and the earthquake magnitude of tectonic earthquake is also just larger. Elastic resilience theory is a theoretical model, a kind of hypothesis, and real seismic process may be quite complicated. " yes, but I advise that " possibility " two word removes, and am " real seismic process is quite complicated ".
At Tsing-Hua University's mechanical system, senior professor once appointed Theory of Vibration Head of the Teaching and Research Section, doctoral advisor's fourth literary composition mirror professor authority shows: " mechanics problem of earthquake prediction " the 3rd page: " since 20 beginnings of the century, the most convictive elastic resilience theory of will calculating, first it proposed by U.S. seismologist Reed, its Main Basis is along San Francisco violent earthquake, the rock mass that seismogenic fault two coils exists the long dislocation of 6.4m. and on the surface of this tomography, also having when earthquake two to coil the vestige of the reciprocal changing of the relative positions of rock mass, this is the strong demonstration of elastic resilience theory. these tomographies and near rock mass thereof, accumulated a large amount of elastic potential energys by tectonic diastrophism, and the stress of rock mass has reached strength degree. fault plane breaks, and the unexpected relative sliding of two dish rock mass, has produced elastic wave and formed earthquake ". the author thinks that above-mentioned distinguished authoritative professor, doctor, researcher, academician's this theory has represented the common recognition of Chinese geology circle mechanics circle and ground, countries in the world educational circles mechanics circle. but these theories still do not solve what physics overall process and the power source of earthquake be, above-mentioned: do be " rock mass of seismogenic fault two basins exists the long dislocation of 6.4m " that what active force causes? does is the degree of depth of dislocation how many? the energy that how large needs are? do be " vestige of the reciprocal changing of the relative positions of two dish rock mass " again that what tectonic force forces its " back and forth changing of the relative positions "? the bottom of rock mass " back and forth " changing of the relative positions, the length in deep, wide, does is the degree of depth respectively how many? is reciprocal energy again from where? so " elastic resilience " just described the superficial phenomenon on ground surface after the earthquake, there is no focal mechanism solution, there is no to solve the huge energy of starting earthquake from where? there is no convincingness. the real earthquake mechanism of tens million of mankind's life of having eaten also does not find and judges by accident, so just cause the accurate forecast of earthquake not realize! the earth's crust and all plates are all on the same earth, all relatively to keep inactive state, do not have " other object institute active force " to force it to change relatively static state, just can never oneself motion, " plate tectonice " absolutely not " structure " goes out the huge energy of hundreds of, several thousand, several ten thousand atom bombs. occur in 9 grades of violent earthquakes of Fukushima, Japan East Sea ditch, the energy of only seeing from ground surface just has the energy of several ten thousand atom bombs, the huge energy that is converted to heat energy by kinetic energy below seabed that also has in addition people can not see is to see, not sentient, separately there is powerful seismic wave to launch to the whole world, all by huge kinetic transformation, so the energy that this secondary earthquake discharges is larger, the extremely huge energy of this be any " plate tectonice ", " tectonic movement ", " tectonic earthquake " absolutely not creation. do not have energy just can not start earthquake. the overall process of just not knowing earthquake preparation is how earthquake occurs on earth so the ground scholar of countries in the world, mechanics scientist do not find what the power source of the earth's crust, plate motion is over how 100 year! described in Here it is professor Ding Wenjing represents China and ground, whole world educational circles, mechanics circle: " but earthquake prediction is the science difficult problem being difficult to, existing progress is far away from accurate forecast earthquake, due toTectonic earthquakeAll occur in crust depth, be subject to the earth's crustStructureControl, the geological structure of different regions is far apart,Have no idea at present accurately the to understand structure situation of crust deep part, is difficult to the earthquake that forecasts with unerring accuracy, and must adhere to carrying out for a long time Earthquake Prediction Research "(at " mechanics problem of earthquake prediction " 6-9 page). The U.S. at western developed country also has: " in 20 end of the centurys, have typical fractal structure to propose earthquake headed by American scholar Geller, do not have the length scale of a feature, is a kind of Self-organized Critical Phenomena. And Self-organized Critical Phenomena has intrinsic unpredictability, so Occurence Time of Earthquakes is uncertain. " write at Zhou Shiyong, Xu Zhonghuai: " modern seismology study course " the 194th page. The inventor thinks that earthquake generation approximate time can forecast completely, from shake before forecast time in the offering, key is the grand liter that geologist, seismologist, mechanics scientist global over more than 100 year do not find volcano including earthquake, continental drift, Qinghai-Tibet Platean, what the real power source of orogenic movement is, key issue is must be " just at Rapid Uplift ... " tectonic diastrophism to Qinghai-Tibet Platean ", " plate tectonice motion ", " tectonic earthquake " significant problem of querying. What " structure " can be on same earthquake zone over and over again " structure " go out to have hundreds of on specific function force direction, how many thousand, the energy of how many ten thousand atom bombs starts earthquake? can not " create " and can not, by " elimination ", can only become another form from a kind of formal transformation according to physics " energy ". " structure " can not create alone huge energy, thus " plate tectonice motion ", " tectonic diastrophism ", " tectonic earthquake " theory be false, not science. Cause erroneous judgement! So just cause professor Ding Wenjing to represent described in ground, whole world educational circles, mechanics circle: " but earthquake prediction is the science difficult problem being difficult to, existing progress is far away from accurate forecast "!
Two, continental drift, orogenic movement, uplift of Qinghai-Tibet, earthquake, volcano the origin cause of formation and the dynamics of real power source be not " collision orogenetic ", be not " plate tectonice motion ", be not the dynamics of " tectonic earthquake "
Learn mechanics textbooks according to university physics:
" we represent the cumulative effect of power in time course with momentum, and momentum equals power and be multiplied by the time of power effect, if external force f is a constant force, at t1Time be carved into t2In the time in moment, the suffered outer linear impulse I of object is: I=f (t2-t1)
We discuss nowThe variation of the caused object moving state of external force momentum.If the quality of object is m, initial velocity is v1, under the effect of permanent bonding force f, speed becomes v2, by uniformly accelrated rectilinear motion equation, known v2＝v1+a(t2-t1), a is the acceleration of object here, t2-t1Be action time, according to Newton's second law f=ma, try to achieve momentum I and be:
I＝f(t2-t1)＝ma(t2-t1)＝mv2-mv1
V in formula1And v2Respectively that object is at moment t1And t2Speed. Make P1＝mv1，P2＝mv2
Above formula can be write I=P2-P1
In formula, physical quantity P (=mv) is called the momentum of object,Be the product of the quality of object and the speed of object, momentum is the important physical amount that characterizes object moving state.Momentum is vector, and direction is identical with speed, above formula explanation:The increment that the suffered outer linear impulse of object equals the momentum of object is the phasor difference of last momentum and initial momentum,Be called momentum theorem. Momentum p=mv, I=p2-p1
In the situation that object moves along a curved path, still have this relation:
Above-mentioned teaching material instructs the product of our speed v and quality m to equal the momentum of object, the suffered outer linear impulse I of object equals the increment of the momentum of object, it is the phasor difference of last momentum and initial momentum, we have a look at power source real on the earth now has what different from above-mentioned multidigit expert's dynamics, and is who to whose mistake?
Everybody met tellurion for we, as long as you rotate tellurion is personally to rotate taking the line at the South Pole and the two poles of the earth, the arctic as axle with regard to readily appreciating that the earth rotates from West to East, so all numerous big and small plate is all coaxial decentraction on the earth's crust and the earth, on the earth, all plates comprise that all plates of eurasian plate, Indian, Pacific-oceanic plate etc. are all to rotate on same axis. because the earth is spheroidal substantially as tellurion, be in plate in different latitude and vertical range different (as Fig. 1) on this axis, if someone met tellurion, but personally do not rotate, so as long as you personally rotate the globe and will see, certain on equator a bit, how fast its line (tangent line) speed has, and it is southern, certain of north high latitude a bit, its rotary speed obviously not as on equatorial line certain a bit, exactly because taking equator as former line progressively increases with the subpoint distance of axis and but reducing to the two poles of the earth, north and south latitude respectively, the radius that is plate rotation is progressively reducing, the rotational line speed of its plate is also progressively reducing, the radius O that north latitude is as shown in Figure 1 15 °1A is less than the radius of equator rotation, that is equator radius of turn OW is greater than the plate radius of turn O on 15 °1A, i.e. OW > O1A, 15 ° of plate radiuss of turn are greater than again the radius of turn O of 30 ° of plates2B, i.e. O1A＞O2B, in like manner the radius of turn O of 30 ° of plates2B is greater than again 45 ° of radius of turn O on plate3C，O2B＞O3C, by that analogy, i.e. O3C＞O4D，O4D＞O5E ... in like manner the rotation radius in the Southern Hemisphere is the rotation radius of low latitudes plate too, the radius that is to say the plate rotation of both sides, equator is 6378.245km to the maximum, girth is 40075.704km, line (tangent line) speed is about 463.84m/s, the minimum about 300-1km of rotation (rotation) radius at the two poles of the earth, north and south is following or almost nil, the about 0.01157m/s of its linear velocity is 1/40089.9th of equatorial line speed. For numerous plate, the earth is a huge closed system, is applicable to Newton's laws of motion, according to physics mechanics: " the momentum mv of object is the important physical amount that characterizes object moving state "; " momentum is vector, and direction is identical with speed "; " the suffered outer linear impulse of object equals the increment (being the phasor difference of last momentum and initial momentum) of the momentum of object, is called momentum theorem ". Momentum computing formula: p=mv
P in formula is momentum, and m is quality, and v is speed, due to both sides, equator plate radius of turn maximum, because the thickness of the earth's crust rock stratum of the earth is all substantially the same, is m so the area of both sides, equator plate and quality m are greater than the quality of north and south high latitudeLow latitude＞mHigh latitude, rotary speed is also all large simultaneously, so the momentum P of both sides, equator low latitudes plateLow latitudeMaximum, along with increasing of latitude, rotation radius progressively reduces, and area, quality m and the speed v of plate are also reducing, so the momentum P of high latitude plateHigh latitudeAlso reducing. That is: PLow latitude＞PHigh latitude
Because the plate of the especially big plate of equator south and north flanks and high latitude is jagged occluding relation, the plate of low latitudes supersonic motion must produce " momentum diffusion " motion of extruding, underriding and do work compared with the plate of low-speed motion high latitude with extremely huge momentum mv. If can be described as with a vivid metaphor: an adult and the child of 8 years old stand on the same starting line, it is fast that adult runs than child certainly, but because adult and child's clothes and trousers, footgear are all sewed up and linked together, adult's clothing footgear must all will produce to pull to tear to cause to child's clothing footgear and pull, pushes, dives, and forces moving displacement in the direction that child makes a concerted effort along two people and does work. Because plate and plate are jagged occluding relations, High Rotation Speed plate is equivalent to direction that powerful inertia momentum that adult has must be equivalent to child to produce drive, extruding, underriding, displacement effect and changed active force to the plate of low speed rotation by changing direction motion northeastward eastwards into and doing work. According to momentum theorem: " the suffered outer linear impulse I of object equals the increment of object momentum, i.e. last momentum and the first phasor difference of amount ". That is: I=PLow latitude-PHigh latitude
The plate of high latitude has obtained the huge momentum of low latitudes plate, thereby has caused the variation of plate motion state.
The object of the invention is to overcome global earthquakes scholar, tectonic geology scholar, mechanics scientist is in the Physical Mechanism of earthquake, the erroneous judgement of physical mechanism and earthquake preparation overall process solution, misread, can not find earthquake especially strong earthquakes be equivalent to several thousand, several ten thousand, the power source of a hundreds of thousands atom bomb energy is from where, think mistakenly plate " structure " motion, " tectonic earthquake " caused that mountains collapse and the earth crack up, earthshaking, house collapse, huge rock on mountain top fly to river opposite form barrier lake, road, bridge collapse or initiation Oc ean Tsunami cause several ten thousand, hundreds of thousands people's death and disability, form the natural disaster the most miserable for the human world. can may I ask so the major disaster which type of " structure " start these above-mentioned all destructive power to cause? can which type of " structure " start the earthquake of 1-5 level? can which type of " structure " start the earthquake of 6-7 level? again which type of " structure " can start the violent earthquake of 8-9 level? the essence of knowing earthquake is the result that powerful active force does work, and the basic element of acting is that vector active force forces the certain distance of ohject displacement, and be within certain brief moment time, to complete the huge power of output. how does " plate " structure " motion " move? is the active force of " motion " from where? how destructive huge energy is broken through to the resistance of tens kilometers of rock stratum that resistance is huge from tens kilometers of crustal rock layer depths to hundreds of kilometer of the depth of focus? tens kilometers of huge energy to hundreds of kilometer are the buildings that how to be transported to the above mankind in ground below, bridge, does road carry out again large-area destructive vibration acting? know that conveying capacity must be a kind of material---carrier, the bullet of for example firearms and shell fragment are exactly the carrier of conveying capacity, gunpowder in bullet is energy (chemical energy), the blast of projectile impact formula produces the gas medium promotor site bullet high-speed displacement of HTHP to hundreds of rice or the distance acting far away of a few km, sub warhead is the carrier of energy, the product of its quality and speed is exactly momentum, can do brokenly the merit of bosom property, in moment, acting is exactly to have exported power, and " plate tectonice motion " and " tectonic earthquake " have these requisite elements? do are they how to do work? what more can not make any explanation is that the depth of focus arrives hundreds of kilometer crust depth at tens kilometers, how can be transported in moment the large areas of hundreds of thousands on ground square kilometre, force that mountains collapse and the earth crack up, house collapse, road and bridge dislocation destruction etc. phenomenon, discharge several ten thousand, the energy of a hundreds of thousands atom bomb? thereby as fourth literary composition mirror professor authority described in " mechanics problem of earthquake prediction " book: " but earthquake prediction is the science difficult problem being difficult to, existing progress is far away from accurate forecast "! in order to complete as early as possible rescue this global " science difficult problem " within the time of some months, first must find the power source of this real " considerable damage power " how to produce, so background technology of the present invention has to overcome above-mentioned etc. wrong theory and theory with a large amount of lengths, must emphasis demonstration describe several ten thousand, is the energy of a hundreds of thousands atom bomb from where? difficulty has that to have found this real power source be not " plate tectonice motion ", it not the theory of " tectonic earthquake " etc. above-mentioned mistake, but from the coaxial decentraction of earth rotation, the radius of turn of plate reduces because of increasing successively of latitude, cause low latitudes macroplate, the huge momentum that High Rotation Speed has, to the increment of the momentum producing compared with small plate with compared with the momentum of low speed rotation plate compared with high latitude, the astronomical huge momentum and the acceleration that produce, to certainly leading to extruding compared with high latitude plate, dive, the active force (external force) of displacement, force big and small without several piece compared with some in high latitude plate, the upwards unique scope of freedom of hard whippy lithosphere---ground bending displacement distortion and accumulation elastic energy, through in a few years, the huge energy of more than ten years or cumulative effect is for many years accumulated in earthquake zone tens in large area around, on the diastrophic lithosphere of the big and small hard whippy lithosphere of hundreds of piece, the lithosphere of these Bending Deformations has just become the carrier of cumlative energy, the accumulated time of power for many years and the spatial summation of power are passed through, make the distance that the big and small flexibility that is accumulated to carrier lithosphere without the hard whippy lithosphere of several piece is displacement increasing (as shown in Figure 21, 2, 3), when carrier lithosphere has been accumulated to strength degree value, first there is carrier disrumpent feelings upspringing in small part rock stratum to penetrate huge elasticity energy, disrumpent feelings moment as shown in Figure 2 macroplate lithosphere upwards launch suddenly the shift length of several meters of displacements or tens meters and do work, went out the destructive energy of the great power of astronomical number to the abrupt release in tens seconds at several seconds, foreshock that Here it is, arrived strength degree value after most of carrier lithosphere continues a large amount of elastic potential energy of accumulation time tens, the large-area carrier lithosphere of hundreds of piece is within the time of several seconds to tens seconds, successively break and launch out the energy of astronomical great power, cause large-area heavy damage acting on ground, a principal earthquake that Here it is! remaining small part is not still accumulated to the lithosphere carrier of limiting value, the huge momentum, the momentum (external force) that have at low latitudes High Rotation Speed plate force their to continue displacement in the accumulated time and spatial summation of power under acting on, in the time that the limiting value shown in Fig. 2 has been arrived again in bending displacement, huge energy acting, aftershock that Here it is are launched out in the displacement of breaking again suddenly. this power source that is only earthquake with breed overall process solution and physics, mechanics height is consistent, the dynamics being identical!
Under the theoretical direction of the earthquake Physical Mechanism mechanism of destroying the old and establishing the new in above-mentioned this attempt, just can find prediction methods and system before earthquake in the offering.
1, with the coring of geology drill hole of drilling machine, the diameter of phi 108-300mm (millimeter) of boring, hole depth 1-15km (kilometer).
2,, in densely inhabited district or city, drilling depth is 10-15 kilometer, less area in people, and drilling depth is 5-10 kilometer, on underpopulated plateau, mountain area hole depth is 1-3 kilometer (as shown in Figure 3).
3, put into and prepare already intact various instruments, instrument at foot of hole, as existing various instrument and meters such as steel pipe rising measuring instruments at the bottom of jug, recorder, thermometer, infrared ray instrument, radon measuring devices, water-thermometer, water pressure gauge, hole. because rock stratum, must bending under the effect of external force (momentum, acceleration). because the earth is spheroidal, lithosphere itself is exactly a huge arc plate, as Fig. 2, can only be to ground, the scope of freedom upwards the distance on bending and ground diminish, be that rock stratum is to top offset, the bottom in hole is upwards raised, at this moment at the bottom of the multiple instrument at the bottom of hole can measure hole, change, first be that recorder sound equipment can occur while receiving rock flexural deformation, represent that the deep under ground here has Impulse power extruding lithosphere, force lithosphere flexural deformation to form parameter and the information signal of various activities, accumulated time and the spatial summation to lithosphere carrier function power along with external force momentum and acceleration, the distance of displacement strengthens, the flexibility of carrier lithosphere strengthens, the distance of displacement strengthens, huge energy power can make the temperature rise of carrier lithosphere, further push the mutual extrusion friction in rock stratum and rock stratum and can send infrared ray by heating luminous, finally can produce radon gas, seismic detector now, recorder, thermometer, water temperature, water pressure gauge, radon measuring devices, steel pipe rising instrument at the bottom of hole, infrared ray instrument all can record, simultaneously automatically above seismographic station earthward, stand or seismological bureau directly transmits, the mode of transmitting has multiple, the mode of available mobile phone is launched automatically, the mode of available GPS sends from modern existing various communication modes such as the automatic transmittings of trend satellite.
Because plate displacement is utmost point process slowly, lithosphere bending deformation process is the accumulated time that forms power within several years or more than more than ten years time, with the diastrophic spatial summation in rock stratum, the diastrophic process in rock stratum, ascending, grow from weak to strong, now this diastrophic lithosphere has become the carrier of all cumlative energies, the elastic energy of accumulating concentrates on the diastrophic lithosphere of numerous carrier, numerous big and small lithosphere carrier is done work and is launched and discharge huge energy in moment by the distance of the displacement of breaking suddenly, cause that mountains collapse and the earth crack up, house collapse, the earth's surface phenomenons such as road and bridge dislocation destruction, complete energy release process, form earthquake.
4, a device that firm inside cylindraceous is cell site builds in reinforced concrete in the aperture, ground of each boring, above this waterproof drum cylindraceous, there is transmitting antenna, there are battery or ground power supply in inside, have the administrative staff on ground and technical staff can be in time to the charge in batteries in steel cylinder and the steel plate door of the various instrument and meters of maintenance, on door-plate, must lock, in case child plays with or have people to destroy, the various signals that are used for the multiple instrument and meter transmission of bottom, hole to come up are transmitted into seismological bureau automatically, stand, the receiving mechanisms such as platform, automatically transmit, the automatic dispatching station of similar mobile phone handsets function, make seismological bureau, stand, director and the expert of the functional unit such as platform process in time, before earthquake, prime time is sent urgent forecast, realize the object of the prediction about imminent earthquakes of earthquake.
5, building the inside, cell site firm cylindraceous that waterproof enters on the top of surface drilling mouth has various complete equipment, and as battery or power supply, multiple instrument and meter device at the bottom of hole, all has power supply supply. The holding wire of power line and multiple instrument and meter all packs in steel pipe, and this steel pipe seals, and prevents that rainwater and underground water from entering the normal operation that affects power supply and various signal lines. This steel pipe not only has the function of the various holding wires of protection and power line simultaneously; raise amplitude that steel pipe rises earthward if also have lithosphere at the bottom of hole to be bent upwards deformation to the distance of top offset; also be signal and the parameter before earthquake, forecast is had to important meaning.
6, because power source and the Physical Mechanism of earthquake find, when multiple lithospheres are bent upwards distortion, it is the coaxial decentraction of earth rotation, the skewness of momentum, the momentum producing and acceleration extruding lithosphere displacement acting, lithosphere is ascending because be subject to the process of the effect distortion of external force, the preparation process growing from weak to strong, the signal producing is ascending, the signal producing that grows from weak to strong has: vibrations and sound can occur lithospheric deformation, seismic detector and recorder can receive signal automatically, the device of automatic cylinder interior earthward transmits signal immediately, cylindric cell site is immediately to each earthquake signal receiving structure transmitted signal. lithosphere during because of extrusion kinetic force of friction to do work and can produce heat energy, temperature raises, simultaneous temperature again raises and sends infrared ray and produce radon gas, now the thermometer of boring and various instrument and meter can be transmitted into the each functional organization of earthquake signal at once and process. polylith carrier lithosphere in several years or more than ten years or decades in the time that the accumulated time of power and the active force of spatial summation and reaction force have arrived certain degree, tens, the cumulative stress of the energy of hundreds of, several thousand, several ten thousand atom bombs are become, in rock stratum, can produce radon gas, now radon gas receiving instrument can send the concentration of radon gas, the omen of Here it is Explosion earthquake, these parametric synthesis are got up to analyze and research and will be obtained strong earthquakes approximate time, can send the forecast before earthquake to functional organizations such as the governments of this area.
Fig. 1 is the method and system of earthquake forecast of the present invention, and the rotation radius of both sides, equator plate is greater than the plate rotation radius that southern hemisphere and northern hemisphere latitude is higher. North and south latitude is higher, and its rotation radius is less, and radius of turn is little, and linear velocity diminishes, and its momentum also diminishes, the earth and all big and small countless plate rotating coaxial decentraction when explanatorily revolutions. MOMENTUM DISTRIBUTION inequality.
To be the multiple plate solid rock of the method and system of earthquake forecast of the present invention layer be forced in the process of displacement successively bending accumulation elastic potential energy in the extruding that is subject to the huge Impulse power of astronomical number and acceleration to Fig. 2, in the process of the accumulated time of power for many years and the spatial summation of power, hard whippy lithosphere changes the carrier of stress energy accumulation into, in the time that the energy of one or more carrier lithosphere accumulation has arrived the limiting value of rock stratum suddenly 1 second moment huge energy of launching out astronomical number to seconds or tens of seconds clock, could break through the rock stratum above carrier lithosphere, the resistance of soil layer covering starts earthshaking earthquake, and become the overall process solution of earthquake preparation.
Fig. 3 is the method and system of earthquake forecast of the present invention; 1 seismic detector for miniaturization in diameter 108-300mm (millimeter) figure of boring; 2 is recorder; the 3rd, thermometer; the 4th, water pressure gauge; the 5th, water-thermometer; the 6th, infrared ray instrument, the 7th, steel pipe rising measuring instrument at the bottom of hole, the 8th, the steel pipe of the inner multiple instrument and meter of water pipe precaution and power circuit safety; the 9th, the reinforced concrete cylinder above aperture; the transmitting station of multiple instrument and meter signal, the 9th, the device of various signal transmitting stations, the 10th, transmitting antenna; the 11st, lightning rod, the 12nd, battery.
Claims (3)
1. the method and system of earthquake forecast, is characterized in that with geological drilling rig following vertical drilling coring earthward.The diameter 108-300mm (millimeter) in hole. Hole depth is 1-15km (kilometer), boring bottom put into prepare already intactVarious instrument and meters as jug, recorder, thermometer, infrared ray instrument, water-thermometer, water pressure gauge, radon measuring devices,Steel pipe rising measuring instrument at the bottom of hole, is used for measuring the front polylith lithosphere of earthquake because being subject to external force momentum extruding flexural deformation displacement to become accumulationThe carrier of energy, will inevitably occur dynamic friction, deformation, displacement in earth's crust rock stratum cause vibrations, sound equipment, variations in temperature,The variation of ultrared degree of strength, ground water temperature and pressure, concentration and the running parameter of measurement radon gas, carrier lithosphere is bending to be becomeAt the bottom of shape shift length strengthens and is bent upwards ambassador Du Jia hole, steel pipe rising instrument is raised rising parameter, with waterproof sealed steel pipe guarantor against pressureProtect above-mentioned various instrument and meter and circuit unimpeded, various information, signal that various instrument and meters are recorded, above-mentioned instrument and meterThe function various informations parameter that can measure, the cell site's mail message above trend aperture, signal and each seed ginseng at any timeNumber. Emitter on the ground of boring can be at any time from the seismological bureau of trend country and local government, seismographic station, seismic station etc.The technological means of function mobile phone, mobile phone unit for automatically transmitting or with gps system to satellite launch, national or work as the administrate affairs of the utilization and requisition of landVarious information that the functional unit such as seismological bureau, seismic station at mansion sends in time automatically according to boring, signal, parameter analysis,Research, in the time developing into certain serious degree, illustrates the time of earthquake generation in the offering, timely government's duty to this areaThe modern communication facilities such as energy unit and TV station, radio station, mobile phone send the urgent earthquake prediction of earthquake.
2. earthquake forecast method and system according to claim 1, is characterized in that on the aperture, ground of described boringBuilding a skin has the firm transmitting station of reinforced concrete cylindraceous of waterproof, has as shown in Figure 3 the antenna of transmitting above steel cylinderAnd lightning rod, in steel cylinder, have battery or ground power supply, have the administrative staff on ground and technical staff can be in time to holding in steel cylinderBattery charging and keep in repair the steel plate door of various emitter instrument and meters, door-plate must be locked, in case child plays with or have people to destroy,The emitter that ensures top, aperture receives the multiple instrument and meter of the foot of hole various information that transmission comes up automatically, signal and eachKind of parameter sends from trend seismological bureau, seismic station, seismographic station or in time to gps system to satellite launch, by government function machineStructure receives, and research can realize the forecast in front prime time of earthquake in the time developing into certain order of severity by analysis.
3. the method and system of earthquake forecast according to claim 1, the quantity of the boring described in it is characterized in thatArrange 3-4 boring with the earth that distribution is the area in every square kilometre, densely populated areas He city around earthquake zone,Drilling depth is that 10-15km (kilometer) installs the emitters such as above-mentioned various instrument and meters, in the less area of the density of population,Every square kilometre of area is arranged 2-3 boring, is also that 5-10 kilometer rare plateau, mountain area in people holed 1-2 deeply,Hole depth is 1-3 kilometer. The size of boring area coverage is thought and likely in a certain area, earthquake is occurred by responsible person and expertPossibility, can specifically arrange the quantity of an area boring or cover several ten thousand or hundreds of thousands square kilometre area, according to specificallySituation can be determined flexibly, from then on can guarantee the front Accurate Prediction forecast of this area's earthquake.
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| CN109307882A (en) * | 2018-05-18 | 2019-02-05 | 惠安县金建达电子科技有限公司 | A kind of storage deep under ground antidetonation device |
| CN109597118A (en) * | 2018-10-17 | 2019-04-09 | 占行波 | A kind of temperature wave girth sheets and its application method for predicting earthquake location |
| CN111062136A (en) * | 2019-12-20 | 2020-04-24 | 南京大学 | Real-time clothes form determination method and system |
| CN112380198A (en) * | 2020-10-29 | 2021-02-19 | 吉林大学 | Seismic receiving function automatic selection method based on deep learning |
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