WO2023210121A1

WO2023210121A1 - Power supplying management device, power supplying management method, and power supplying management system

Info

Publication number: WO2023210121A1
Application number: PCT/JP2023/005667
Authority: WO
Inventors: ロバートエリス; 祐太土屋
Original assignee: 株式会社日立製作所
Priority date: 2022-04-28
Filing date: 2023-02-17
Publication date: 2023-11-02
Also published as: JP2023163194A

Abstract

The present invention is to provide a power supplying management means which makes it possible to determine the priority of an area in which power supplying is predicted to be affected by an event such as a disaster, and, before a power shortage situation occurs, to efficiently deploy a facility that supplies the power on the basis of the determined priority. The power supplying management device comprises: an event detection unit which detects an event which may affect power supplying to a prescribed subject area; a map information management unit which acquires map information pertaining to the subject area; a population estimation unit which estimates the population in the subject area; a demand determination unit which determines the demand of the power of the subject area; a priority determination unit which generates power supplying priority evaluation that indicates the priority of supplying the power for each small area in the subject area on the basis of the power demand information, the population information, and the map information; and a plan generation unit which generates a preliminary power supplying plan that designates the size of a preliminary power generation facility to be deployed in each of the small areas.

Description

Power supply management device, power supply management method, and power supply management system

The present invention relates to a power supply management device, a power supply management method, and a power supply management system.

The supply of electricity used by load equipment such as buildings, factories, social infrastructure, and homes is mainly handled by power supply systems that include large-scale power plants, substations, and power transmission and distribution equipment. However, large-scale events such as natural disasters caused by environmental changes may damage the power supply system, making it impossible to supply sufficient power and causing power outages. When a power outage occurs, depending on the scale of the damage, it may take several weeks for power to be restored, resulting in significant losses for power companies during the period when power cannot be supplied.

Conventionally, as a means of suppressing damage caused by power outages, there has been known a method of connecting the storage batteries of multiple electric vehicles to a charging/discharging device and discharging emergency energy during an emergency when power supply is insufficient. There is.
For example, Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2021-158837 (Patent Document 1) states, "In the power information processing system 100, the charger/discharger management server SV2 acquires information on the power grid network from the power system management server SV1, and Information on electric vehicles is acquired from the EV management server SV3, and based on the comparison between the demand power required in the power grid during a power outage and the supply power that can be supplied from multiple electric vehicles, Determine the allocation of the electric vehicles that discharge power to the power grid, and guide each of the plurality of electric vehicles to a charger/discharger for discharging power to the power grid based on the allocation.''The technology is disclosed. has been done.

Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2021-158837

The above-mentioned Patent Document 1 describes means for allocating and guiding electric vehicles, which are the supply side, to the demand side of the power grid that requires electric power.

However, in the power information processing means described in Patent Document 1, the activity of distributing electric vehicles and supplying power is performed after a disaster has already occurred and a power outage has occurred, and the power request from the power grid network that requires power is It is carried out based on. As a result, supply is delayed due to the travel time of electric vehicles to the power grid, and the supply is delayed to the customers with the highest need for electricity (customers who require large amounts of electricity, facilities that support human life such as hospitals) The problem is that there is no guarantee that electricity will be supplied immediately.

Therefore, the present disclosure determines the priority of areas where power supply is expected to be affected by an event such as a disaster, and installs equipment that supplies power based on the determined priority in a situation where power is insufficient. The purpose is to provide a power supply management means that can be efficiently deployed before power generation occurs.

In order to solve the above problems, one of the typical power supply management devices of the present invention includes an event detection unit that detects an event that may affect the power supply to a predetermined target area; a map information management unit that acquires map information indicating the location of substations in the target area and the distribution of structures in the target area; a population estimation unit that estimates the population of the target area; and a population estimation unit that estimates the population of the target area; a demand determination unit that determines demand; and supplying power to each small area centered on each substation in the target area based on the demand for electricity, the population, and the map information. a priority determination unit that generates a power supply priority evaluation indicating the priority of the event; and a backup power generation unit that deploys, for each of the small areas, to the small area in order to alleviate the impact of the event, based on the power supply priority evaluation. and a plan generation unit that generates a backup power supply plan that specifies the scale of the equipment.

According to the present disclosure, the priority of an area where power supply is expected to be affected by an event such as a disaster is determined, and based on the determined priority, equipment that supplies power is adjusted to prevent a situation where power is insufficient. It is possible to provide a power supply management means that can be efficiently deployed before power generation occurs.
Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will be made clear by the description in the detailed description below.

FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a computer system for implementing embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power supply network according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of a power supply management system according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the flow of the power supply management method according to the embodiment of the present disclosure. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of the flow of backup power supply plan presentation processing according to the embodiment of the present disclosure. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of a priority calculation table illustrating an example of priority calculation according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of a priority table according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of an equipment deployment management table according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of a backup power supply plan according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of the flow of plan learning processing according to the embodiment of the present disclosure.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to this embodiment. In addition, in the description of the drawings, the same parts are denoted by the same reference numerals.

Next, with reference to FIG. 1, a computer system 100 for implementing an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described. The mechanisms and apparatus of the various embodiments disclosed herein may be applied to any suitable computing system. The main components of computer system 100 include one or more processors 102 , memory 104 , terminal interface 112 , storage interface 113 , I/O (input/output) device interface 114 , and network interface 115 . These components may be interconnected via memory bus 106, I/O bus 108, bus interface unit 109, and I/O bus interface unit 110.

Computer system 100 may include one or more general purpose programmable central processing units (CPUs) 102A and 102B, collectively referred to as processors 102. In some embodiments, computer system 100 may include multiple processors, and in other embodiments, computer system 100 may be a single CPU system. Each processor 102 executes instructions stored in memory 104 and may include onboard cache.

In some embodiments, memory 104 may include random access semiconductor memory, storage devices, or storage media (either volatile or nonvolatile) for storing data and programs. Memory 104 may store all or a portion of programs, modules, and data structures that perform the functions described herein. For example, memory 104 may store power supply management application 150. In some embodiments, power supply management application 150 may include instructions or writing to perform functions described below on processor 102.

In some embodiments, the power supply management application 150 may be implemented on semiconductor devices, chips, logic gates, circuits, circuit cards, and/or other physical hardware instead of or in addition to processor-based systems. It may also be implemented in hardware via a device. In some embodiments, power supply management application 150 may include data other than instructions or descriptions. In some embodiments, cameras, sensors, or other data input devices (not shown) may be provided to communicate directly with bus interface unit 109, processor 102, or other hardware of computer system 100. .

Computer system 100 may include a bus interface unit 109 that provides communication between processor 102 , memory 104 , display system 124 , and I/O bus interface unit 110 . I/O bus interface unit 110 may be coupled to I/O bus 108 for transferring data to and from various I/O units. I/O bus interface unit 110 connects via I/O bus 108 to a plurality of I/

O interface units

112, 113, 114, also known as I/O processors (IOPs) or I/O adapters (IOAs). and 115.

Display system 124 may include a display controller, display memory, or both. A display controller may provide video, audio, or both data to display device 126. Computer system 100 may also include devices, such as one or more sensors, configured to collect data and provide the data to processor 102.

For example, the computer system 100 may include a biometric sensor that collects heart rate data, stress level data, etc., an environmental sensor that collects humidity data, temperature data, pressure data, etc., and a motion sensor that collects acceleration data, exercise data, etc. May include. Other types of sensors can also be used. Display system 124 may be connected to a display device 126, such as a standalone display screen, a television, a tablet, or a handheld device.

The I/O interface unit has the ability to communicate with various storage or I/O devices. For example, the terminal interface unit 112 may include a user output device such as a video display device, a speaker television, or a user input device such as a keyboard, mouse, keypad, touchpad, trackball, buttons, light pen, or other pointing device. It is possible to attach user I/O devices 116 such as: Using the user interface, a user operates user input devices to input input data and instructions to user I/O device 116 and computer system 100, and to receive output data from computer system 100. Good too. The user interface may be displayed on a display device, played through a speaker, or printed through a printer, for example, via the user I/O device 116.

Storage interface 113 may include one or more disk drives or direct access storage devices 117 (typically magnetic disk drive storage devices, but also an array of disk drives or other storage devices configured to appear as a single disk drive). ) can be installed. In some embodiments, storage device 117 may be implemented as any secondary storage device. The contents of memory 104 are stored in storage device 117 and may be read from storage device 117 as needed. I/O device interface 114 may provide an interface to other I/O devices such as printers, fax machines, etc. Network interface 115 may provide a communication path so that computer system 100 and other devices can communicate with each other. This communication path may be, for example, network 130.

In some embodiments, computer system 100 is a device that receives requests from other computer systems (clients) that do not have a direct user interface, such as a multi-user mainframe computer system, a single-user system, or a server computer. There may be. In other embodiments, computer system 100 may be a desktop computer, a portable computer, a laptop, a tablet computer, a pocket computer, a telephone, a smart phone, or any other suitable electronic device.

Next, an overview of the present disclosure will be described with reference to FIG. 2.

FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power supply network 200 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. The power supply network 200 is a power system for supplying power to a predetermined target area, and as shown in FIG. It consists of a power distribution network 235 that distributes power from the power station 220 to the consumers. More specifically, the power generated by power station 210 is transmitted to substation 220 via power transmission line 215. Thereafter, at the substation 220, the high voltage power transmitted from the power plant 210 is transformed to a lower voltage, and is transformed to each area in the target area, such as a residential use area 242, a commercial use area 240, and a social infrastructure use area 244. Power is distributed to

By the way, as described above, when the power supply network 200 is damaged by a large-scale event such as a natural disaster, the power transmission lines may be disconnected, making it impossible to supply sufficient power to the target area, resulting in a power outage. . When a power outage occurs, depending on the scale of the damage, it may take several weeks for power to be restored, resulting in significant losses for power companies during the period when power cannot be supplied. Therefore, in such a situation where there is a power shortage, the electric power company deploys backup power supply equipment, such as a power supply vehicle, to the area where the power is out, until the normal power supply network 200 is restored. It is desirable to limit the impact of power outages.

However, the need for electricity may vary depending on the amount of electricity required, the use of electricity, etc. in the area that requires the supply of electricity. Therefore, from the power company's perspective, in order to minimize the impact of power outages and provide efficient power supply, it is important to prioritize the regions to be supplied with electricity according to the power needs of each region. It is desirable to determine and deploy backup power supply equipment based on the determined priority. This priority determination may be performed, for example, based on zoning areas, etc., which are divided into areas based on the amount of electricity demanded, the population, the main use of electricity, etc. of the area requiring the supply of electricity.

As an example, the social infrastructure use area 244 shown in FIG. 2 has a higher demand for electricity than the commercial use area 240 and the residential use area 242, and includes many facilities that support human life, such as hospitals. Therefore, electric power companies give higher priority to this social infrastructure use area 244, and in the event that a natural disaster such as a typhoon is predicted, power companies will provide backup power supply equipment such as power supply vehicles to this social infrastructure use area 244 for commercial A larger number may be provided than in the usage area 240 and the residential usage area 242.

In this way, the priority of areas where the supply of electricity is expected to be affected by an event such as a disaster is determined, and the equipment that supplies electricity is set based on the determined priority, so that a situation where power is insufficient occurs. By deploying them efficiently in advance, it is possible to minimize the impact of power outages and reduce losses for power companies.

Next, with reference to FIG. 3, a power supply management system according to an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described.

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of a power supply management system 300 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. As shown in FIG. 3, the power supply management system 300 includes the above-described power supply network 200 and a power supply management device 350. In the power supply management system 300, the power supply network 200 and the power supply management device 350 may be connected to each other via a communication network 330.

Communication network 330 may include, for example, a local area network (LAN), wide area network (WAN), satellite network, cable network, WiFi network, or any combination thereof. More specifically, the power supply management device 350 manages a plurality of devices in the power supply network 200 (a client terminal of a power company that manages the power plant 210, a sensor installed in a substation, a commercial use area 240, a residence) (sensors installed in each region such as the usage area 242 and the social infrastructure usage area 244), and is configured to perform data communication via the communication network 330 as necessary.

The power supply network 200 is a system that integrates power generation, substation, power transmission, and distribution in order to supply power generated by the power plant 210 to power receiving equipment of consumers in a predetermined target area. It consists of a power transmission network 205 that transmits power to the substation 220, and a power distribution network 235 that distributes power from the substation 220 to consumers.
Note that the configuration of the power supply network 200 has been described above with reference to FIG. 2, so a description thereof will be omitted here.

The power supply management device 350 determines the priority of power supply for each small region included in the target region where power supply is expected to be affected by a large-scale event such as a natural disaster, and determines the priority of power supply. This is a device for generating and outputting a backup power supply plan for efficiently deploying equipment that supplies power, such as power supply vehicles, before an event occurs, based on the following. The power supply management device 350 may be implemented as a server device or multiple server devices in a distributed computing environment such as a cloud.

The target area in the present disclosure means, for example, an area where the power plant 210 supplies power. Moreover, one target area is composed of a plurality of small areas. These small areas may be, for example, areas within a predetermined distance from each substation in the target area. Furthermore, one small area may be provided with different zoning areas such as a residential area, a commercial area, an industrial area, and a social infrastructure area. As described below, the priority for supplying power may be determined for each zoning area in a small area.

As shown in FIG. 3, the power supply management device 350 includes an event detection unit 352, a map information management unit 353, a population estimation unit 354, a demand determination unit 356, a priority determination unit 358, and a plan generation unit 360. , a presentation section 362 , and a plan learning section 364 . These functional units may be software modules that constitute the power supply management application 150 shown in FIG. 1, or may be independent dedicated hardware devices. Additionally, the functional units described above may be implemented in the same computing environment or in distributed computing environments.

The event detection unit 352 is a functional unit that detects an event that may affect the power supply to a predetermined target area. The event here may be any event that may affect the power supply, such as a natural disaster such as a typhoon, tsunami, or earthquake, a conflict, or maintenance or failure of a power plant. Further, the event detection unit 352 may use a machine learning method or the like configured to predict an event by acquiring and analyzing external information such as weather information or seismic activity information.

The map information management unit 353 is a functional unit that acquires and processes map information indicating at least the location of substations in the target area and the distribution of structures in the target area. The map information here may be obtained, for example, from individuals or organizations that distribute open source map data, may be obtained from providers who distribute map data for a fee, or may be obtained from artificial satellites, aerial photographs, etc. It may also be map information created independently based on. The map information management unit 353 may generate a zoning map in which small areas in the target area are classified into zoning areas by processing the acquired map information.
In the present disclosure, a "zoning area" is an area divided based on regional characteristics or the use of structures in a small area. In this disclosure, embodiments will be described using four zoning areas: residential use area, commercial use area, industrial use area, and social infrastructure use area, but this disclosure is not limited to this, and different zoning areas Alternatively, categories created by the user may be used.

The population estimation unit 354 is a functional unit for estimating the population of the target area. The population estimation unit 354 may estimate the population data of the target area based on historical population data such as the national census, or real-time data such as traffic volume, the number of terminals connected to the Internet, and images from surveillance cameras. good.

The demand determination unit 356 is a functional unit that determines the demand for electricity in the target area. The demand determination unit 356 determines the power demand in the target area based on, for example, the past power consumption in the target area or the real-time power consumption measured based on information from sensors arranged in the power supply network 200. may be determined.

The priority determination unit 358 is a functional unit that generates a power supply priority evaluation indicating the priority of supplying power to each small area centered around each substation in the target area. This power supply priority evaluation is generated based on, for example, the ratio and weighting of zoning areas in the zoning map generated by the map information management unit, the population of the target area estimated by the population estimation unit 354, and the demand determination unit 356. This may be done based on the determined power demand of the target area.

The plan generation unit 360 generates a backup power generation system that specifies the scale (for example, the number) of backup power generation equipment to be deployed for each small area in the target area in order to alleviate the influence of the event detected by the event detection unit 352 described above. This is a functional unit that generates supply plans. The backup power supply plan here may be generated based on the power supply priority evaluation generated by the priority determination unit 358 described above. In some embodiments, plan generator 360 may be implemented as a machine learning technique trained to generate backup power supply plans. Further, the standby power generation equipment here may include any power generation/power supply device, such as a power supply vehicle, an electric vehicle, or a generator.
Note that the backup power supply plan generated by the plan generation unit 360 is generated before the event detected by the event detection unit 352 occurs. In this way, it is possible to prepare for an event by deploying backup power generation equipment according to the priority of each sub-region in the target area according to the backup power supply plan before a power shortage situation occurs. . As an example, the electric power company may deploy backup power generating equipment such as power supply vehicles to substations in each sub-region according to the backup power supply plan, and then dispatch them to each customer according to the progress of an event.

The presentation unit 362 is a functional unit that visualizes the backup power supply plan created by the plan generation unit 360, presents it to the user, and receives user input for changing the backup power supply plan. As an example, the presentation unit 362 may accept user input to adjust the weighting of the zoning areas.

The plan learning unit 364 is a functional unit trained to generate a backup power supply plan based on the state of the power system using the backup power supply plan created by the plan generation unit 360 as learning data. The plan learning unit 364 here may be a reinforcement learning model, for example.

According to the power supply management system 300 having the configuration described above, the priority is determined for each small area in the area where the power supply is expected to be affected by an event such as a disaster, and the determined priority is Based on this, it is possible to efficiently deploy equipment that supplies power before a power shortage situation occurs, to minimize the impact of power outages, and to suppress losses to power companies.

Next, with reference to FIG. 4, a power supply management method according to an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described.

FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the flow of a power supply management method 400 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. The power supply management method 400 shown in FIG. 4 determines a priority for each small area in an area where power supply is expected to be affected by an event such as a disaster, and supplies equipment based on the priority. This is a method for generating a backup power supply plan that efficiently deploys power. The power supply management method 400 shown in FIG. 4 may be implemented, for example, by each functional unit of the power supply management device 350 described above.

First, in step S410, the event detection unit 352 of the power supply management device 350 detects an event that may affect the power supply to a predetermined target area. Here, the event detection unit 352 detects an event by using a machine learning method or the like configured to predict an event by acquiring and analyzing external information such as weather information or seismic activity information. You may. As an example, the event detection unit 352 may detect a typhoon that is predicted to approach the target area as an event based on weather information.

Next, in step S420, the map information management unit 353 acquires map information indicating at least the location of the substation in the target area and the distribution of structures in the target area. Here, the map information management unit 353 may acquire map information of a target area that may be affected by the event detected in step S410. The map information management unit 353 may acquire map information from individuals or organizations that distribute open source map data (for example, Openstreetmaps), or may acquire map information from providers who distribute map data for a fee. , map information of the target area may be created independently based on artificial satellites, aerial photographs, etc. Thereafter, the map information management unit 353 determines the zoning area of each structure in the target area based on the acquired map information, and divides the small area into each zoning area based on the distribution of the determined zoning area of each structure. Generate a zoning map with classification.

More specifically, if text-format metadata indicating the zoning area of the structure (for example, a metadata tag indicating the zoning area of the structure) is associated with the acquired map information, the map information management unit 353 By performing a search method such as a string search on this metadata, the zoning area of each structure in the target area may be determined and totaled. Further, if the metadata indicating the zoning area of the structure is not associated with the acquired map information, the map information management unit 353 uses an OCR (Optical Character Recognition) method to identify the structure in the image serving as the map information. The zoning area may be determined and tabulated based on the appearance, dimensions, etc. of the area.

Next, the map information management unit 353 generates a zoning map in which the small areas are classified into zoning areas based on the determined distribution of zoning areas for each structure. The zoning map here refers to a map with labels indicating zoning areas such as residential use area, commercial use area, industrial use area, social infrastructure use area, etc. for each small area included in the target area. means information. This zoning map also shows the proportion of zoning areas in specific small areas (residential use area: 31%, commercial use area: 27%, industrial use area: 23%, social infrastructure use area: 19%). good. This percentage may be the ratio of the number of structures that fall within a particular zoning district to the total number of structures in the sub-region, or the ratio of the area occupied by structures that fall within a particular zoning district to the total area of the sub-region. It may be a percentage.

Next, the map information management unit 353 assigns weights to the created zoning map for each zoning area. This weighting is a factor representing the relative importance of providing power to a particular zoning area. The map information management unit 353 may assign weights to the zoning areas based on weighting setting criteria created in advance, and may assign weights to the zoning areas based on criteria obtained in advance from a user representing the interests of the electric power company. You may also add an attachment. These weights may be expressed as numerical values ranging from "0" to "1", for example. As an example, in some embodiments, higher weighting (0.7, 0.8, etc.) is given to areas for uses that support human life, such as "residential use areas" and "social infrastructure use areas." can do.
In this way, by generating a zoning map in which small areas are classified into zoning areas and assigning weights to the maps, it is possible to determine priorities that take into account the use of electric power in each region.

Next, in step S430, the population estimation unit 354 estimates the population of the target area. Here, the population estimation unit 354 uses, for example, historical population data such as the national census, traffic volume, the number of terminals connected to the Internet (for example, smartphones that share location data), surveillance camera images, etc. The population data of the target area may be estimated based on real-time data. In one embodiment, the population estimating unit 354 analyzes images of surveillance cameras installed in public places (plazas, stations, airports, shops) using YOLO (You Only Look Once), for example, to estimate the location of the place. The number of people may be estimated, and the population of the entire area may be estimated from this number estimate. In an embodiment, the population estimating unit 354 may estimate the population for each residential area, commercial area, industrial area, and social infrastructure area in the small area of the zoning map generated in step S420. .
In one embodiment, the population estimating unit 354 compares the estimated population with a predetermined threshold value to determine the residential use zone, commercial use zone, industrial use zone, and social infrastructure use zone in each small area. A population index qualitatively indicating the population, such as "1" (high population), "2" (medium population), or "3" (low population), may be determined.

Next, in step S440, the demand determination unit 356 determines the power demand of the target area. Here, the demand determination unit 356 uses, for example, the past power consumption of the target area acquired from the electric power company, and sensors (smart meters in residences and SCADA; Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data) installed in the power supply network 200. ) The power demand in the target area may be determined based on the real-time power consumption measured based on the information. In an embodiment, the demand determination unit 356 may determine the power demand for each residential use area, commercial use area, industrial use area, and social infrastructure use area in the small area of the zoning map generated in step S420. good.

Further, in an embodiment, the demand determination unit 356 compares the determined power demand with a predetermined threshold value, and determines the residential use area, commercial use area, industrial use area, and social infrastructure use area in each small area. For a region, a power demand index qualitatively indicating power demand such as "1" (high demand), "2" (medium demand), "3" (low demand), etc. may be determined.

Next, in step S450, the priority determination unit 358 generates a power supply priority evaluation indicating the priority of power supply for each small region centered on each substation in the target region. More specifically, the priority determination unit 358 uses the weighting of the zoning area created in step S420 given to each zoning area, the proportion of the zoning area in the small area, and the population index estimated in step S430. , and the power demand index determined in step S440, power is supplied to each zoning area (residential use area, commercial use area, industrial use area, social infrastructure use area, etc.) in the small area of the zoning map. Generate a power supply priority rating indicating priority.
The priority here may be calculated by multiplying the sum of the proportion of the zoning area, the estimated population index, and the determined power demand index by the weighting assigned to each zoning area. Thereafter, the priority determination unit 358 selects a value that satisfies a predetermined standard (for example, the highest value) from among the priority values calculated for each zoning area of a specific small area as the overall priority of the specific small area. , the overall priority calculated for each small area may be aggregated as the power supply priority evaluation.

Next, in step S460, the plan generation unit 360 determines the backup power generation equipment to be deployed for each zoning area in a small area centered on each substation in the target area, based on the power supply priority evaluation determined in step S450. Generate a backup power supply plan specifying the scale (eg, number, etc.). More specifically, the plan generation unit 360 calculates the ratio of the priority calculated for a specific small area (total priority) to the total priority of all the small areas, and deploys according to the calculated ratio. Determine the backup power generation facility to be allocated to the zoning area from among the possible backup power generation facilities. After that, the plan generation unit 360 totals the number of backup power generation facilities to be deployed for each small area as a backup power supply plan.
The backup power supply plan generated in step S460 may be presented to a user such as an electric power company by the presentation unit 362 in order to respond to an event such as a disaster, as described with reference to FIG. 11, it may be used as learning data for the plan learning section 364.

According to the power supply management method 400 described above, the priority is determined for each small area in an area where the power supply is expected to be affected by an event such as a disaster, and power is supplied based on the determined priority. By efficiently deploying such equipment before power shortages occur, it is possible to minimize the impact of power outages and reduce losses for power companies.

Next, with reference to FIG. 5, the power supply plan presentation process according to the embodiment of the present disclosure will be described.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of the flow of a power supply plan presentation process 500 for presenting a backup power supply plan to a user according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. This power supply plan presentation process 500 may be executed by the presentation unit 362 described above. As described above, by presenting the backup power supply plan according to the embodiment of the present disclosure to a user such as an administrator and modifying it based on feedback from the administrator, a more accurate backup power supply plan can be generated. can do.

First, in step S510, the presentation unit 362 visualizes the backup power supply plan created by the plan generation unit 360. Here, the expression "visualize" means that the backup power supply plan (that is, information indicating the number of backup power generation facilities to be deployed for each small area) created by the plan generation unit 360 can be visualized using images, graphs, It means to express it in the form of a table, etc. As an example, the presenting unit 362 may visualize the backup power supply plan as a bar graph as shown in FIG. 9 .

Next, in step S515, the presenting unit 362 presents the backup power supply plan visualized in step S510 to the administrator. The administrator here may be, for example, a user such as an administrator representing the interests of the electric power company. The presenting unit 362 may transmit the backup power supply plan visualized in step S510 to a terminal such as a personal computer or a smartphone of the administrator via a communication network, and may present the plan by displaying the plan. In this way, by presenting the backup power supply plan to users such as electric power companies, users who have confirmed the backup power supply plan can set up backup power generation facilities in each area of the target area according to the backup power supply plan in preparation for the detected event. They may be deployed in small areas, and the backup power supply plan may be modified, as described below.

Next, in step S520, the presenting unit 362 may receive user input for modifying the weighting of the zoning area from the administrator who presented the backup power supply plan in step S515. As an example, the presentation unit 362 may receive a user input that changes the weighting of the zoning area with "residential use area" from "0.5" to "0.7".

Next, in step S525, the presentation unit 362 transmits a request to the plan generation unit 360 to modify the backup power supply plan based on the user input received in step S515. After the backup power supply plan is modified based on the user input received in step S515, the process may return to step S510 and re-present the modified backup power supply plan to the user in step S515.

In this way, by modifying the reserve power supply plan based on feedback from managers of power companies, etc., it is possible to create an appropriate reserve power supply plan according to the main uses of the area, the current status of events, etc. I can do it.

Next, a priority calculation table according to an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to FIG. 6.

As described above, in the present disclosure, the priority of supplying power to a small area included in a target area is based on a predetermined weighting for the zoning area of the small area, the ratio of the zoning area in the small area, It is calculated based on a population index indicating the population of the small area and a power demand index indicating the demand for electricity in the small area. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a configuration of a priority calculation table 600 showing an example of priority calculation according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.

As shown in FIG. 6, the priority calculation table 600 includes a residential use area 620, a commercial use area 630, and an industrial use area in a specific small area (for example, an area within a predetermined distance from a specific substation) 610. 640 and social infrastructure use area 650, weighting 660, proportion of the zoning area 670, power demand index 680, population index 690, and priority 695 are shown.

The weighting 660 is a coefficient representing the relative importance of supplying power to a specific zoning area, and may be specified in advance by the power company for each zoning area. As an example, in some embodiments, higher weighting may be set for areas with uses that support human life, such as "residential use area 620" and "social infrastructure use area 650."

The zoning area ratio 670 is information indicating the zoning area ratio in the small area. This zoning area ratio may be the ratio of the number of structures that fall under a specific zoning area to the total number of structures in a sub-area, or the ratio of the area occupied by structures that fall under a specific zoning area to the total number of structures in a sub-area. It may be a percentage of the total area.

As described above, the power demand index 680 is information indicating the characteristics of power demand for each zoning area of a specific small area, and may be expressed in a scale of 1 to 3, for example. Further, the population index 690 is information indicating the characteristics of the population for each zoning area of a specific small area, and may be expressed in a scale of, for example, 1 to 3, similarly to the power demand index 680.

Based on the weighting 660, the power demand index 680, and the population index 690 for each zoning district of a particular sub-region, the priority of the zoning district can be calculated. In this way, by calculating the priority 695 based on the weighting and ratio of zoning areas that indicate the main uses of a small area, electricity demand, and population, we can calculate It is possible to prioritize power supply to the base area. As an example, the priority of the zoning area in a particular small area may be calculated using Equation 1 below.

Here, K represents weighting 660, B represents zoning area percentage 670, P represents population index 690, and D represents power demand index 680. However, the method of calculating the priority is not limited to this, and for example, the priority 695 may be the product of the weighting 660, the zoning area ratio 670, the power demand index 680, and the population index 690. Further, after calculating the priority of each zoning area in the small area, the highest priority value in the small area may be set as the overall priority of the small area. Thereafter, the backup power generation equipment to be deployed in the small area may be determined based on the determined overall priority.
Note that the overall priority is not limited to this determination method, and in an embodiment, the average of the priorities calculated for each zoning area may be calculated to determine the overall priority of the small area.

Next, with reference to FIG. 7, a priority table according to an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described.

FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of a priority table 700 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. The priority table 700 is a diagram showing priorities calculated for each zoning area in a small area of the target area. As shown in FIG. 7, the priority table 700 includes an identification ID 710 for identifying a specific small area, a residential use area 720, a commercial use area 730, an industrial use area 740, a social infrastructure use area 750, and an overall priority level 760. May include. As mentioned above, the overall priority 760 here is the highest of the priorities calculated for each zoning area of the residential use area 720, the commercial use area 730, the industrial use area 740, and the social infrastructure use area 750. This value represents the priority of the entire small area.
In this way, according to the priority table 700, it is possible to manage the priority calculated for each zoning area for each small area in the target area.

Next, with reference to FIG. 8, the equipment deployment management table according to the embodiment of the present disclosure will be described.

FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of an equipment deployment management table 800 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. The equipment deployment management table 800 is a table that specifies the number of standby power generation facilities to be deployed in a small area based on the overall priority calculated for each small area. As shown in FIG. 8, the equipment deployment management table 800 includes an identification ID 810 that identifies a specific small area, an overall priority 820 of the small area, a ratio 830 to the total priority, and a number 840 of standby power generation equipment. May include.
As mentioned above, the standby power generation equipment here may include any power generation/power supply device, such as a power supply vehicle, an electric vehicle, or a generator. The power supply vehicle may be an automobile or a railway vehicle equipped with a generator for supplying electric power. In some embodiments, the number of power supply vehicles specified in the equipment deployment management table 800 may be deployed to the substations of each sub-region before the event occurs.

As described above, the overall priority 820 may be the highest priority among the priorities calculated for each zoning area in the small area, and is a value representing the priority of the entire small area.

The ratio 830 to the total priority is a value indicating the ratio of the total priority of a specific small area to the total priority of all small areas. As an example, if the overall priority of "Small Area 1" is "5.67" and the sum of the total priorities of all small areas is "55.56", then the sum of all the small areas of "Small Area 1" The ratio 830 to the priority is approximately "10%".

The number 840 of standby power generation facilities is a value calculated as the product of the ratio 830 of the overall priority of a specific small area to the total priority of all small areas and the number of standby power generation facilities that can be deployed. For example, if the ratio 830 of "Small Area 1" to the total priority of all small areas is "10%" and the number of standby power generation facilities that can be deployed is "200", then the standby power generation equipment to be deployed in Small Area 1 is The number of equipment 840 is "20".

In this way, according to the equipment deployment management table 800, it is possible to determine the number of standby power generation facilities to be deployed in a small area based on the overall priority calculated for each small area.

Next, with reference to FIG. 9, an example of a backup power supply plan according to an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described.

FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of a backup power supply plan 900 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. As described above, the standby power supply plan 900 is information that specifies, for each small area, the number of standby power generation facilities to be deployed in that small area in order to alleviate the effects of an event. As shown in FIG. 9, the backup power supply plan 900 according to the embodiment of the present disclosure may be expressed, for example, as a bar graph. More specifically, as shown in FIG. 9, in the backup power supply plan 900, the small area ID may be represented on the horizontal axis, and the number of standby power generation facilities for each small area may be represented on the vertical axis.
As described with reference to FIG. 5, this backup power supply plan 900 may be presented to a user such as an electric power company by the presentation unit 362 in order to respond to an event such as a disaster, and as shown in FIG. Additionally, it may be used as learning data for the plan learning section 364.

Next, with reference to FIG. 10, the planned learning process according to the embodiment of the present disclosure will be described.

FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of the flow of plan learning processing 1000 according to the embodiment of the present disclosure. The plan learning process shown in FIG. 10 is a process for training a machine learning model capable of generating a backup power supply plan, and may be executed by, for example, the plan learning unit 364 described above.

As described above, when an event 1010 such as a disaster such as a typhoon is detected, the power supply management method 400 according to the embodiment of the present disclosure applies power to each small area of the target area in order to alleviate the impact of the event. A backup power supply plan 1020 that specifies the scale (for example, number, etc.) of backup power generation equipment to be deployed is generated by the plan generation unit 360. As will be described later, this backup power supply plan 1020 is used as learning data for training the plan learning section 364.
Note that as the learning data here, the backup power supply plan 1020 generated for an actual past event may be used, or the ground truth created by an administrator such as a user for the learning data may be used.

The plan learning unit 364 creates a model representing the state of the power system, for example, as shown in the following formula. The state of the power system includes, for example, the state of the power plant, the probability of the risk of an abnormality (such as a disconnection of a power transmission line) occurring in the power system, the range of influence of the event (weather map, etc.), and the state of the power transmission lines in the power system. It may be created based on information 1025.

Here, gen _t represents the state of the power plant, p _t+1 represents the probability of the risk that an abnormality (such as a disconnection of a power transmission line) will occur in the power system at time t, and _t represents the probability of the risk that an abnormality (such as a disconnection of a power transmission line) will occur in the power system at time t. represents the state of The status of the power plant represents, for example, the power output of the power plant, and may be set by the user representing the interests of the utility company, using different machine learning models trained to determine the optimal power plant status. may be obtained from. In some embodiments, p _t+1 may be the priority of a small region according to embodiments of the present disclosure.

Further, the state of the power transmission line in the power system _lt can be determined from the following formula.

p ^t _line represents the probability that the power transmission line will be disconnected at time t, and r ^t _line is a random number within the range of 0 to 1.

The plan learning unit 364 calculates the state of the power system at each time t up to a predetermined end time t _max based on the risk probabilities p _t+1 and l _t predicted based on the power plant state gen _t , influence range, etc. Create a model. Thereafter, the plan learning unit 364 generates a second backup power supply plan 1030 that indicates the number of backup power generation facilities to be deployed to each sub-region of the target area affected by the event, based on the state of the power system shown in this model. generate.
More specifically, the plan learning unit 364 calculates the state deviation when a predetermined number of backup power generation facilities are deployed with respect to the power system state s _t at a predetermined time t into a second backup power supply plan. It may be set to 1030. In the untrained state, the plan learning unit 364 selects the state shift almost randomly, but as described later, the plan learning unit 364 uses the backup power supply plan 1020 generated by the plan generating unit 360 as learning data. can be trained to generate more appropriate state deviations (i.e., a more effective distribution of standby generation facilities to reduce the impact of an event).

Next, the plan learning unit 364 compares the backup power supply plan 1020 generated by the plan generation unit 360 and the second backup power supply plan 1030 generated by the plan learning unit 364, and compares the degree of similarity (for example, Euclidean distance, etc.). The higher the degree of similarity of the second backup power supply plan 1030 to the backup power supply plan 1020, the higher the reward given to the plan learning unit 364. In this way, by training the plan learning unit 364 to reduce the loss of the second backup power supply plan 1030 with respect to the backup power supply plan 1020, the plan learning unit 364 can prepare an appropriate reserve for various events. It becomes possible to generate a power supply plan.

Furthermore, once the training of the plan learning unit 364 is completed, information indicating the state of the power system (predicted based on the _state of the power plant, the range of influence, etc. By inputting the risk probabilities p _t+1 and l _t ) into the trained plan learning unit 364, it is possible to generate a highly accurate backup power supply plan to suppress the impact of the event. A backup power supply plan can be generated without collecting population information, map information, power demand information, etc.

According to the power supply management means according to the embodiment of the present disclosure described above, when an event (natural disaster, etc.) that may affect the power supply to a predetermined target area is detected, the target area The priority for supplying power can be calculated for each small area centered on the location of each substation. As mentioned above, this priority is calculated based on, for example, the proportion and weighting of each zoning area in a small area, the population, and the demand for electricity. It is a multifaceted index that reflects various aspects such as Then, based on this determined priority, backup power supply equipment such as a power supply vehicle can be provided for each small area in preparation for an event. Therefore, if the power system is damaged due to an event and the power supply to the target area is disrupted, the backup power supply equipment deployed in advance for each small area will be promptly sent to the customers and the impact of the power outage will be taken care of. This makes it possible to suppress losses to electric power companies.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various changes can be made without departing from the gist of the present invention.

200: Power supply network, 205: Power transmission network, 210: Power plant, 215: Power transmission line, 220: Substation, 235: Power distribution network, 240: Commercial use area, 242: Residential use area, 244: Social infrastructure use area , 330: communication network, 350: power supply management device, 352: event detection unit, 353: map information management unit, 354: population estimation unit, 356: demand determination unit, 358: priority determination unit, 360: plan generation unit , 362: Presentation section, 364: Planning learning section

Claims

A power supply management device,
an event detection unit that detects an event that may affect power supply to a predetermined target area;
a map information management unit that acquires map information indicating the location of a substation in the target area and the distribution of structures in the target area;
a population estimation unit that estimates the population of the target area;
a demand determination unit that determines the demand for electricity in the target area;
Power supply priority evaluation indicating the priority of supplying power to each small area centered on each substation in the target area based on the electricity demand, the population, and the map information. a priority determination unit that generates
a plan generation unit that generates, for each of the small areas, a standby power supply plan that specifies the scale of standby power generation equipment to be deployed to the small area in order to alleviate the impact of the event, based on the power supply priority evaluation;
A power supply management device comprising:
The map information management department is
determining the zoning area to which each structure in the target area belongs by analyzing the map information;
generating a zoning map in which the small area is classified into each zoning area based on the determined distribution of zoning areas to which each of the structures belongs;
The power supply management device according to claim 1, characterized in that:
The map information management department is
assigning a weight indicating the importance of supplying electricity to each of the zoning areas of the zoning map;
The power supply management device according to claim 2, characterized in that:
The zoning area is
Including residential use zone, commercial use zone, industrial use zone and social infrastructure use zone,
The power supply management device according to claim 3, characterized in that:
The priority determination unit includes:
For each zoning area in the small area, the sum of the electricity demand index showing the characteristics of the electricity demand, the population index showing the characteristics of the population, and the proportion of the zoning area in the small area is added to the zoning map. calculating a value multiplied by the weighting given to the weight, and setting a value that satisfies a predetermined criterion among the calculated values as the priority of the small area;
The power supply management device according to claim 3, characterized in that:
The power supply management device according to claim 1, wherein the standby power generation facility is a power supply vehicle.
The population estimation department is
At least one of population information acquired for the target area in the past, traffic volume in the target area, the number of terminals connected to a communication network in the target area, and images from surveillance cameras installed in the target area. estimating the population of the target area based on;
The power supply management device according to claim 1, characterized in that:
The demand determination unit is
determining the power demand of the target area based on power consumption information acquired for the target area in the past or real-time power consumption information;
The power supply management device according to claim 1, characterized in that:
a second reserve that specifies, for each of the small areas, the scale of standby power generation equipment to be deployed in the small areas to alleviate the effects of the event, based on a state model of a power system that supplies power to the target areas; Generate a power supply plan,
further comprising a plan learning unit that trains a reinforcement learning model to improve the similarity of the second backup power supply plan to the backup power supply plan generated by the plan generation unit;
The power supply management device according to claim 1, characterized in that:
A power supply management method, the method comprising:
detecting an event that may affect power delivery to a predetermined target area;
acquiring map information indicating the location of a substation in the target area and the distribution of structures in the target area;
determining a zoning area to which each structure in the target area belongs by analyzing the map information;
Based on the determined distribution of zoning areas to which each of the structures belongs, generating a zoning map in which small areas centered on each substation in the target area are classified for each zoning area;
assigning a weight indicating the importance of supplying electricity to each of the zoning areas of the zoning map;
At least one of population information acquired for the target area in the past, traffic volume in the target area, the number of terminals connected to a communication network in the target area, and images from surveillance cameras installed in the target area. estimating the population of the target area based on the
determining the power demand of the target area based on power consumption information acquired for the target area in the past or real-time power consumption information;
generating, for each of the small regions, a power supply priority evaluation indicating the priority of supplying power to the small region, based on the power demand, the population, and the map information;
Generating, for each of the small areas, a standby power supply plan that specifies the scale of standby power generation equipment to be deployed to the small area in order to alleviate the impact of the event, based on the power supply priority evaluation;
A power supply management method characterized by comprising:
A power supply management system,
a power supply network that supplies power to a predetermined target area;
A power supply management device that supports management of power supply to the target area of the power supply network is connected via a communication network,
The power supply management device includes:
an event detection unit that detects an event that may affect power supply to the target area;
a map information management unit that acquires map information about the location of substations in the target area and the distribution of structures in the target area;
a population estimation unit that estimates the population of the target area;
a demand determination unit that determines the demand for electricity in the target area;
Power supply priority evaluation indicating the priority of supplying power to each small area centered on each substation in the target area based on the electricity demand, the population, and the map information. a priority determination unit that generates
Based on the power supply priority evaluation, a backup power supply plan is generated for each of the small areas, specifying the scale of backup power generation equipment to be deployed in the small area to alleviate the impact of the event, and the communication network is a plan generator that transmits the plan to an administrator of the power supply network via the power supply network;
A power supply management system comprising: