WO2023197502A1 - Comprehensive power evaluation method and apparatus - Google Patents

Comprehensive power evaluation method and apparatus Download PDF

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WO2023197502A1
WO2023197502A1 PCT/CN2022/115190 CN2022115190W WO2023197502A1 WO 2023197502 A1 WO2023197502 A1 WO 2023197502A1 CN 2022115190 W CN2022115190 W CN 2022115190W WO 2023197502 A1 WO2023197502 A1 WO 2023197502A1
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indicator
indicators
pool
economic
power
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French (fr)
Chinese (zh)
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程敏
林溪桥
陈志君
覃惠玲
卢纯颢
王鹏
周春丽
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广西电网有限责任公司
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G06Q10/06393Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/18Complex mathematical operations for evaluating statistical data, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Energy or water supply

Definitions

  • the present application relates to the technical field of electric power evaluation, and in particular to a comprehensive electric power evaluation method and device.
  • the power comprehensive index is a comprehensive index that integrates power big data and contains a large amount of information about the power industry and social and economic development.
  • the power comprehensive index can be used to comprehensively evaluate the development of the power economy.
  • the method of constructing a comprehensive evaluation system is generally used to conduct comprehensive evaluation of electric power.
  • the existing evaluation method has problems such as imperfect evaluation index pool, complicated final index system, and failure to fully utilize the information contained in GDP.
  • the indicators are incomplete. It means that because there is no accurate definition of measurement indicators, there are relatively large differences in the indicator pool.
  • the complexity of the final indicator system means that all indicators in the evaluation system are included in the synthesis of the final index, so that the weight of each indicator will be further weakened And the change in weight increases, making the final indicator system complicated; not fully utilizing the information contained in GDP refers to defining GDP as an indicator rather than a dependent variable containing information.
  • the weight of the index GDP obtained in this way is generally larger. is small, and GDP has a greater correlation with the existing index system. Due to the imperfect evaluation index pool, the complexity of the final index system, and the failure to fully utilize the information contained in GDP, the obtained power comprehensive evaluation index data is inaccurate and cannot produce actual evaluation significance.
  • the embodiments of this application provide a power comprehensive evaluation method and device, which are used to conduct supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis through GDP year-on-year growth rate, and make full use of the information contained in GDP itself to more accurately calculate the power comprehensive evaluation index.
  • the first aspect of the embodiments of this application provides a comprehensive evaluation method for electric power, including:
  • the preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
  • the evaluation index corresponding to the electric power indicator and the economic indicator is determined based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
  • the input of the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to adjust missing values of the indicators includes:
  • a small amount of missing data in the indicator pool is supplemented through smooth interpolation
  • inputting the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to adjust the indicator seasonal factors includes:
  • the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method are used to remove seasonal factors from the indicator data in the indicator pool.
  • the power indicator and the economic indicator are input into an indicator pool to perform correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, including:
  • inputting the power indicator and the economic indicator into an indicator pool to normalize the indicators includes:
  • the year-on-year growth rate in the indicator pool is normalized, and the normalization formula is: Among them, max( xi ) represents the maximum value of the sequence ⁇ xi ⁇ ; min( xi ) represents the minimum value of the sequence ⁇ xi ⁇ .
  • the formula of the LASSO regression is in is the preprocessed GDP year-on-year growth rate, is the preprocessed indicator pool, is the preprocessed indicator, ⁇ is the regression coefficient vector, and ⁇ j is the penalty weight of each indicator.
  • determining the evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression includes:
  • the electric power indicator and the economic indicator are assigned and calculated according to the weight to obtain an evaluation index.
  • the calculation formula is: where ⁇ is the corresponding parameter vector.
  • the second aspect of the embodiment of the present application provides a comprehensive power evaluation device, including:
  • An execution unit is used to input the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations.
  • the preprocessing operations include adjusting the missing values of the indicators, adjusting the seasonal factors contained in the indicators, performing correlation analysis on the indicators, and
  • the indicators are normalized;
  • a determining unit configured to determine an evaluation index corresponding to the electric power index and the economic index based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
  • the execution unit includes a missing value adjustment module, a seasonal factor adjustment module, an indicator and GDP correlation analysis module, and an indicator normalization processing module:
  • the missing value adjustment module is used to supplement a small amount of missing data in the indicator pool through smooth interpolation method and to interpolate a large amount of missing data in the indicator pool according to the data proportion analysis method;
  • the seasonal factor adjustment module is used to remove seasonal factors from the indicator data in the indicator pool using the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method;
  • the indicator and GDP correlation analysis module is used to perform correlation analysis on the year-on-year growth rate of indicator data in the indicator pool and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP;
  • the indicator normalization processing module is used to normalize the year-on-year growth rate in the indicator pool.
  • the determination unit includes a determination module and a calculation module:
  • a determination module configured to determine the weight of the power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression
  • the calculation module is used to assign and calculate the power indicator and the economic indicator according to the weight to obtain an evaluation index.
  • the calculation formula is: where ⁇ is the corresponding parameter vector.
  • the third aspect of the embodiment of the present application provides a comprehensive power evaluation device, including:
  • the processor is connected to the memory, the input and output unit and the bus;
  • the processor specifically performs the following operations:
  • the preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
  • the evaluation index corresponding to the electric power indicator and the economic indicator is determined based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
  • the processor is also configured to perform operations of any optional solution in the first aspect.
  • the fourth aspect of the embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium for a comprehensive power evaluation method, including:
  • the computer-readable storage medium stores a program, and the program executes the aforementioned power comprehensive evaluation method on the computer.
  • the embodiments of the present application have the following advantages:
  • the system inputs the power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to adjust missing values, seasonal factors, and indicators.
  • Pre-processing such as correlation analysis with GDP and indicator normalization processing, and then using the LASSO regression method to regress GDP and the pre-processed indicator data in the indicator pool, and finally determine the corresponding evaluation of power indicators and economic indicators based on the regression coefficients generated by the regression.
  • this method uses GDP year-on-year growth rate for supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis, and performs variable selection and weighting on the indicators.
  • Figure 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation method in the embodiment of the present application.
  • Figure 2 is a schematic flow diagram of another embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation method in the embodiment of the present application.
  • Figure 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation device in the embodiment of the present application.
  • Figure 4 is a schematic structural diagram of another embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation device in the embodiment of the present application.
  • the embodiments of this application provide a power comprehensive evaluation method and device, which are used to conduct supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis through GDP year-on-year growth rate, and make full use of the information contained in GDP itself to more accurately calculate the power comprehensive evaluation index.
  • the power comprehensive evaluation method can be implemented in the system, on the server, or on the terminal, and is not specifically limited.
  • the system obtains power indicators and economic indicators
  • the system uses power consumption indicators and economic development indicators as elements of comprehensive evaluation, and the introduction of power indicators and economic indicators can solve the problem of incomplete evaluation indicator pools.
  • the definitions of indicators at all levels are based on the specificity of each subject. conduct.
  • power indicators can include power supply, power purchase, power sales, line loss power, line loss rate, network loss rate, hydropower generation, thermal power generation, oil power generation, coal power generation, gas power generation, Photovoltaic power generation, installed capacity, total profit of the power company, net profit of the power company, economic added value of the power company, return on net assets of the power company, preservation and appreciation rate of state-owned capital of the power company, return on total assets of the power company, operating income of the power company, Asset-liability ratio of power companies, unit power supply cost, unit power purchase cost, primary industry electricity consumption, secondary industry electricity consumption, tertiary industry electricity consumption, urban and rural residential electricity consumption, central urban area residential comprehensive voltage qualification rate, Comprehensive voltage qualification rate for urban residents, comprehensive voltage qualification rate for rural residents, third-party customer satisfaction, medium-voltage line failure rate, average number of power outages for power outage users, smart meter coverage, and electricity consumption in key industries in the region, etc.;
  • Economic indicators can include crude oil processing output, output of ten non-ferrous metals, soda ash output, chemical fertilizer output, ethylene output, cement output, crude steel output, alumina output, pig iron output, coke output, raw coal output, added value of the real estate industry, social Total retail sales of consumer goods, freight volume, total import and export value, per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, per capita food consumption expenditure of urban households, per capita residential consumption expenditure of urban households, per capita consumption expenditure of education, culture and entertainment services of urban households, Consumer confidence index, per capita disposable income of urban households, commercial housing sales prices, consumer price classification index, industrial producer purchasing price index, industrial producer ex-factory price index, fixed asset investment completion, total inventory, railway manufacturing industry Monthly freight volume of finished products and monthly customs exports in RMB, etc.
  • the system inputs power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations.
  • the preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
  • the system After the system selects power indicators and economic indicators and inputs them into the indicator pool, it preprocesses the indicator data in the indicator pool.
  • the preprocessing includes missing value adjustment, that is, smoothing interpolation is used to supplement a small amount of missing data and perform proportional analysis on a large amount of missing data; Seasonal factor adjustment is to remove the influence of seasonal factors in the index model; indicator and GDP correlation analysis is to conduct correlation analysis between year-on-year growth rate and GDP year-on-year growth rate; indicator normalization processing is based on positive indicators and negative indicators. The year-on-year growth rate is normalized to the indicator.
  • the system uses the LASSO regression method to regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool;
  • the system builds a model through the LASSO regression method, and then performs variable selection, in which variable selection is achieved by adjusting the parameters in the model. Specifically, the larger the parameter, the greater the penalty for a linear model with more variables, thus obtaining a model with more variables. Fewer models.
  • the determination of the model is adjusted through the cross-validation method. For example, given a parameter ⁇ , substitute ⁇ into the model for cross-validation, select the ⁇ value with the smallest cross-validation error, and then re-fit it with all the data based on the optimal ⁇ value obtained. Just fit the model.
  • ⁇ j is the weight of the penalty item for a certain indicator. If the weight of the indicator is larger and the indicator pool is selected more times, the penalty weight should be smaller.
  • the variables corresponding to the estimated parameter ⁇ j being zero can be directly excluded from the composition of the indicator pool in the final index.
  • the evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and economic indicator is determined.
  • the final index of the i-th evaluation individual at time t can be calculated by the following formula:
  • the system uses this calculation method to make the calculation process faster.
  • the obtained power comprehensive evaluation index structure has the characteristics of continuity, order and low variance. It uses supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis to reduce the complexity of the variable system in index construction, thereby reducing the complexity of the variable system. It weakens the problem of the contribution of indicators to the index, and effectively extracts the GDP information in the indicator system, thereby better realizing the comprehensive evaluation of electric power using the electric power economic index.
  • the system obtains power indicators and economic indicators
  • Step 201 in this embodiment is similar to step 101 in the previous embodiment, and will not be described again here.
  • the system inputs the power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to adjust the missing values of the indicators;
  • the system uses smooth interpolation to supplement a small amount of missing data in the indicator pool.
  • the formula is as follows:
  • x i,t-1 and x i,t+1 are the values of the i-th indicator t-1 quarterly or monthly and t+1 quarterly or monthly, That is, the value that needs to be inserted, that is, the value of t quarter or month of the i-th indicator is missing, insert as an alternative.
  • n is the total number of quarters, is the known value of the i-th indicator in quarter k, x i,k is the national value of the i-th indicator in quarter k, x i,t is the national value of the i-th indicator in quarter t, That is the value that needs to be inserted.
  • the system inputs power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to adjust seasonal factors;
  • the system first uses the year-on-year adjustment method to remove seasonal factors. If there is still an obvious seasonal effect after year-on-year adjustment, the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method is used.
  • the formula for the year-on-year adjustment method is:
  • x i,t is the value of the i-th indicator in quarter t
  • x i,t-12 is the value of the indicator in the same period last year. Subtract all indicator values from the same period last year, and divide the resulting difference by the same period last year x i,t-12 to obtain the year-on-year growth rate of the indicator. The obtained year-on-year growth rate removes seasonal effects and dimensions.
  • the present invention first adjusts seasonal factors by calculating the year-on-year growth rate, which facilitates calculation and can effectively remove seasonal effects.
  • T t represents the trend of the time series
  • S t represents the seasonality of the time series
  • I t represents irregular disturbance factors.
  • the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method decomposes the trend and seasonality of the time series through the moving average algorithm, and then uses The original series is divided by the seasonal effect to obtain a new time series result with no seasonality.
  • the system inputs power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to analyze the correlation between indicators and GDP;
  • the system performs correlation analysis on each year-on-year growth rate and GDP year-on-year growth rate.
  • indicators with greater correlation and stable performance in the time dimension are selected into the indicator system; indicators that are positively correlated with GDP year-on-year growth rate are marked as positive. indicator, otherwise it is recorded as an inverse indicator.
  • the system inputs the power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool for normalization of the indicators;
  • the system normalizes all year-on-year growth rates.
  • max( xi ) represents the maximum value of the sequence ⁇ xi ⁇
  • min( xi ) represents the minimum value of the sequence ⁇ xi ⁇ .
  • the system uses the LASSO regression method to regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool;
  • Step 206 in this embodiment is similar to step 103 in the previous embodiment, and will not be described again here.
  • the system determines the weight of power indicators and economic indicators based on the regression coefficients generated by regression;
  • the system uses the regression coefficients generated by the LASSO regression method in the indicator pool as the weight of the indicator system, and empowers the indicators so that value assignment calculations can be performed based on weighted power indicators and economic indicators.
  • the system assigns values to power indicators and economic indicators based on weights and calculates the evaluation index.
  • the system assigns values to power indicators and economic indicators based on the set weights and finally obtains a more accurate evaluation index.
  • the present invention can use the information contained in GDP to play a supervised learning role through the LASSO regression method, thereby better selecting and empowering variables for high-dimensional electric power big data.
  • Supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis can effectively reduce the problem of redundant variable systems in index construction, thereby weakening the contribution of indicators to the index, and effectively extract the GDP information in the indicator system, thereby better realizing the use of electric power economic indexes for comprehensive evaluation of electric power.
  • An embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation device in the embodiment of this application includes:
  • the acquisition unit 301 is used to acquire power indicators and economic indicators
  • the execution unit 302 is used to input power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations.
  • the preprocessing operations include adjusting missing values of indicators, adjusting seasonal factors contained in indicators, performing correlation analysis on indicators, and normalizing indicators. deal with;
  • the regression unit 303 is used to regress GDP and preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool through the LASSO regression method
  • the determination unit 304 is configured to determine the evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
  • the execution unit 302 includes a missing value adjustment module, a seasonal factor adjustment module, an indicator and GDP correlation analysis module, and an indicator normalization processing module.
  • the missing value adjustment module 3021 is used to supplement a small amount of missing data in the indicator pool through the smooth interpolation method and to interpolate a large amount of missing data in the indicator pool according to the data proportion analysis method.
  • the seasonal factor adjustment module 3022 is used to remove seasonal factors from the data in the indicator pool using the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method.
  • Indicator and GDP correlation analysis 3023 is used to perform correlation analysis between the year-on-year growth rate of data in the indicator pool and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP.
  • the indicator normalization processing module 3024 is used to normalize the year-on-year growth rate in the indicator pool.
  • the determination unit 304 includes a determination module 3041 and a calculation module 3042.
  • Determination module 3041 used to determine the weight of power indicators and economic indicators based on the regression coefficients generated by regression;
  • the calculation module 3042 is used to assign and calculate the power indicators and economic indicators according to the weights to obtain the evaluation index.
  • the execution unit 302 inputs the electric power index and the economic index into the index pool for preprocessing operation, in which the missing value adjustment module 3021 uses the smooth interpolation method to adjust the small amount of data in the index pool. Missing data are supplemented and large missing data in the indicator pool are interpolated according to the data proportion analysis method; the seasonal factor adjustment module 3022 uses the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method to remove seasonal factors from the data in the indicator pool.
  • the seasonal factor adjustment module 3022 uses the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method to remove seasonal factors from the data in the indicator pool; the indicator normalization processing module 3024 normalizes the year-on-year growth rate in the indicator pool, and the regression unit 303 Then the GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool are regressed through the LASSO regression method.
  • the determination module in the determination unit 304 determines the weight according to the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
  • the calculation module 3042 performs assignment calculation on the power indicators and economic indicators based on the weight. A relatively accurate evaluation index is obtained.
  • the present invention makes full use of the information contained in GDP itself to obtain relatively accurate electric power comprehensive evaluation index data, thereby realizing a comprehensive evaluation of electric power.
  • Another embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation device in the embodiment of the present application includes:
  • Processor 401 memory 402, input determination unit 403, bus 404;
  • the processor 401 is connected to the memory 402, the input determination unit 403 and the bus 404;
  • Processor 401 performs the following operations:
  • the preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
  • the evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and economic indicator is determined based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
  • the functions of the processor 401 correspond to the steps in the aforementioned embodiment shown in FIGS. 1 to 2 , and will not be described again here.
  • the disclosed systems, devices and methods can be implemented in other ways.
  • the device embodiments described above are only illustrative.
  • the division of the units is only a logical function division. In actual implementation, there may be other division methods.
  • multiple units or components may be combined or can be integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored, or not implemented.
  • the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection between each other shown or discussed may be through some interfaces, and the indirect coupling or communication connection of the devices or units may be in electrical, mechanical or other forms.
  • the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed to multiple network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
  • each functional unit in various embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist physically alone, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit.
  • the above integrated units can be implemented in the form of hardware or software functional units.
  • the integrated unit is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium.
  • the technical solution of the present application is essentially or contributes to the existing technology, or all or part of the technical solution can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium , including several instructions to cause a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods described in various embodiments of this application.
  • the aforementioned storage media include: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, read-only memory), random access memory (RAM, random access memory), magnetic disk or optical disk and other media that can store program code. .

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Abstract

The present application relates to a comprehensive power evaluation method and apparatus. The method in the present application comprises: acquiring a power indicator and an economic indicator; inputting the power indicator and the economic indicator into an indicator pool, so as to execute a preprocessing operation, wherein the preprocessing operation comprises missing-value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, indicator and GDP correlation analysis, and indicator normalization processing; performing regression on a GDP and preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool by using a LASSO regression method; and determining, on the basis of a regression coefficient generated by means of regression, an evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and the economic indicator. In the method, variable selection and weighting are performed on preprocessed indicators, correlation analysis is performed on the indicators and a GDP, variables having a relatively high correlation are retained and relatively high weights are assigned thereto, and variables having a relatively low correlation are discarded. In this way, comprehensive power evaluation index data obtained by fully utilizing information contained in the GDP itself is relatively accurate, and comprehensive power evaluation is realized.

Description

一种电力综合评价方法及装置An electric power comprehensive evaluation method and device 技术领域Technical field
本申请涉及电力评估技术领域,尤其涉及一种电力综合评价方法及装置。The present application relates to the technical field of electric power evaluation, and in particular to a comprehensive electric power evaluation method and device.
背景技术Background technique
电力综合指数是一种融合电力大数据,蕴含电力行业以及社会经济发展的大量信息的综合指数,利用电力综合指数可以对电力经济发展进行综合评价。目前对于综合指数的研究主要包括三种,一是利用经济学领域内某一种具有代表性的单一指标,例如全要素生产率、劳动生产率等直接度量经济发展;二是构建综合指标评价体系测度经济发展;三是构建景气指数作为定性指标来反映某一特定调查群体或某一社会经济现象所处的状态或发展趋势。The power comprehensive index is a comprehensive index that integrates power big data and contains a large amount of information about the power industry and social and economic development. The power comprehensive index can be used to comprehensively evaluate the development of the power economy. At present, there are mainly three types of research on comprehensive indexes. One is to use a representative single indicator in the field of economics, such as total factor productivity, labor productivity, etc. to directly measure economic development; the other is to build a comprehensive index evaluation system to measure economic development. development; the third is to construct a prosperity index as a qualitative indicator to reflect the status or development trend of a specific survey group or a certain socio-economic phenomenon.
现有技术中一般采用构建综合评价体系的方式进行电力综合评价,但是现有的评价方式存在评价指标池不完善、最终指标体系的冗杂以及没有充分利用GDP包含的信息这些问题,其中指标不完善是指由于对衡量指标没有准确的定义,指标池存在比较大的差别,有的指标仍未被考虑,有的指标不符合某一地区的实际需要,有的指标不符合时代发展的要求,尤其涉及电力大数据应用方面的区域经济发展质量评估研究相对缺乏;最终指标体系的冗杂是指将评价体系内的所有指标均包含在最终指数的合成之中,这样每个指标的权重会被进一步削弱以及权重的变化惠增大,使得最终指标体系的冗杂;没有充分利用GDP包含的信息是指将GDP定义为一项指标,而不是一个含有信息的因变量,这样得到的指数GDP的权重一般较小,并且GDP与已有指数体系具有较大的相关性。由于评价指标池不完善、最终指标体系的冗杂以及没有充分利用GDP包含的信息这些问题从而导致得到的电力综合评价指标数据不准确,无法产生实际的评估意义。In the existing technology, the method of constructing a comprehensive evaluation system is generally used to conduct comprehensive evaluation of electric power. However, the existing evaluation method has problems such as imperfect evaluation index pool, complicated final index system, and failure to fully utilize the information contained in GDP. Among them, the indicators are incomplete. It means that because there is no accurate definition of measurement indicators, there are relatively large differences in the indicator pool. Some indicators have not been considered, some indicators do not meet the actual needs of a certain region, and some indicators do not meet the requirements of the development of the times, especially There is a relative lack of research on the quality assessment of regional economic development involving the application of power big data; the complexity of the final indicator system means that all indicators in the evaluation system are included in the synthesis of the final index, so that the weight of each indicator will be further weakened And the change in weight increases, making the final indicator system complicated; not fully utilizing the information contained in GDP refers to defining GDP as an indicator rather than a dependent variable containing information. The weight of the index GDP obtained in this way is generally larger. is small, and GDP has a greater correlation with the existing index system. Due to the imperfect evaluation index pool, the complexity of the final index system, and the failure to fully utilize the information contained in GDP, the obtained power comprehensive evaluation index data is inaccurate and cannot produce actual evaluation significance.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本申请实施例提供了一种电力综合评价方法及装置,用于通过GDP同比增长率进行监督学习与高维数据分析方式,充分利用GDP本身所蕴含的信息较为准确计算电力综合评价指数。The embodiments of this application provide a power comprehensive evaluation method and device, which are used to conduct supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis through GDP year-on-year growth rate, and make full use of the information contained in GDP itself to more accurately calculate the power comprehensive evaluation index.
本申请实施例第一方面提供了一种电力综合评价方法,包括:The first aspect of the embodiments of this application provides a comprehensive evaluation method for electric power, including:
获取电力指标和经济指标;Get electricity indicators and economic indicators;
将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内执行预处理操作,所述预处理操作包括缺失值调整、季节因素调整、指标与GDP相关性分析以及指标归一化处理;Input the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations. The preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
通过Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator回归方法对GDP与所述指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;Regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool through the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression method;
基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标对应的评价指数。The evaluation index corresponding to the electric power indicator and the economic indicator is determined based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
可选的,所述将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内调整指标缺失值,包括:Optionally, the input of the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to adjust missing values of the indicators includes:
通过平滑插值法对指标池内存在少量缺失的数据进行补充;A small amount of missing data in the indicator pool is supplemented through smooth interpolation;
根据数据比例分析方式对指标池内缺失量较大的数据进行插补。Interpolate data with a large amount of missing data in the indicator pool according to the data proportion analysis method.
可选的,所述将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内调整指标季节因素,包括:Optionally, inputting the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to adjust the indicator seasonal factors includes:
采用同比调整法与X-12-ARIMA季节调整法对指标池内的指标数据去除季节因素。The year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method are used to remove seasonal factors from the indicator data in the indicator pool.
可选的,所述将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内进行指标与GDP相关性分析,包括:Optionally, the power indicator and the economic indicator are input into an indicator pool to perform correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, including:
将指标池内的指标同比增长率与GDP同比增长率进行相关性分析。Conduct correlation analysis between the year-on-year growth rate of indicators in the indicator pool and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP.
可选的,所述将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内对指标进行归一化处理,包括:Optionally, inputting the power indicator and the economic indicator into an indicator pool to normalize the indicators includes:
将指标池内所述同比增长率进行归一化处理,归一化公式为
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000001
其中,max(x i)表示序列{x i}的最大值;min(x i)代表序列{x i}的最小值。
The year-on-year growth rate in the indicator pool is normalized, and the normalization formula is:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000001
Among them, max( xi ) represents the maximum value of the sequence { xi }; min( xi ) represents the minimum value of the sequence { xi }.
可选的,所述LASSO回归的公式为
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000002
其中
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000003
为经过预处理后的GDP同比增长率,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000004
为经过预处理后的指标池,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000005
为经过预处理后的指标,β为回归系数向量,ω j为各指标的惩罚权重。
Optionally, the formula of the LASSO regression is
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000002
in
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000003
is the preprocessed GDP year-on-year growth rate,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000004
is the preprocessed indicator pool,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000005
is the preprocessed indicator, β is the regression coefficient vector, and ω j is the penalty weight of each indicator.
可选的,所述基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标对应的评价指数,包括:Optionally, determining the evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression includes:
基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标的权重;Determine the weight of the electric power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression;
根据所述权重对所述电力指标和所述经济指标进行赋值计算得到评价指数,计算公式为
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000006
其中β为对应的参数向量。
The electric power indicator and the economic indicator are assigned and calculated according to the weight to obtain an evaluation index. The calculation formula is:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000006
where β is the corresponding parameter vector.
本申请实施例第二方面提供了一种电力综合评价装置,包括:The second aspect of the embodiment of the present application provides a comprehensive power evaluation device, including:
获取单元,用于获取电力指标和经济指标;Acquisition unit, used to obtain power indicators and economic indicators;
执行单元,用于将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内执行预处理操作,所述预处理操作包括调整指标缺失值、调整指标含有的季节因素、对指标进行相关性分析以及对指标进行归一化处理;An execution unit is used to input the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations. The preprocessing operations include adjusting the missing values of the indicators, adjusting the seasonal factors contained in the indicators, performing correlation analysis on the indicators, and The indicators are normalized;
回归单元,用于通过LASSO回归方法对GDP与所述指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;A regression unit used to regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool through the LASSO regression method;
确定单元,用于基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标对应的评价指数。A determining unit configured to determine an evaluation index corresponding to the electric power index and the economic index based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
可选的,所述执行单元包括缺失值调整模块、季节因素调整模块、指标与GDP相关性分析模块以及指标进行归一化处理模块:Optionally, the execution unit includes a missing value adjustment module, a seasonal factor adjustment module, an indicator and GDP correlation analysis module, and an indicator normalization processing module:
缺失值调整模块,用于通过平滑插值法对指标池内存在少量缺失的数据进行补充以及根据数据比例分析方式对指标池内缺失量较大的数据进行插补;The missing value adjustment module is used to supplement a small amount of missing data in the indicator pool through smooth interpolation method and to interpolate a large amount of missing data in the indicator pool according to the data proportion analysis method;
季节因素调整模块,用于采用同比调整法与X-12-ARIMA季节调整法对指标池内的指标数据去除季节因素;The seasonal factor adjustment module is used to remove seasonal factors from the indicator data in the indicator pool using the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method;
指标与GDP相关性分析模块,用于将指标池内的指标数据同比增长率与GDP同比增长率进行相关性分析;The indicator and GDP correlation analysis module is used to perform correlation analysis on the year-on-year growth rate of indicator data in the indicator pool and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP;
指标进行归一化处理模块,用于将指标池内所述同比增长率进行归一化处理。The indicator normalization processing module is used to normalize the year-on-year growth rate in the indicator pool.
可选的,确定单元包括确定模块和计算模块:Optionally, the determination unit includes a determination module and a calculation module:
确定模块,用于基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标的权重;A determination module, configured to determine the weight of the power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression;
计算模块,用于根据所述权重对所述电力指标和所述经济指标进行赋值计算得到评价指数,计算公式为
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000007
其中β为对应的参数向量。
The calculation module is used to assign and calculate the power indicator and the economic indicator according to the weight to obtain an evaluation index. The calculation formula is:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000007
where β is the corresponding parameter vector.
本申请实施例第三方面提供了一种电力综合评价装置,包括:The third aspect of the embodiment of the present application provides a comprehensive power evaluation device, including:
处理器、存储器、输入输出单元、总线;Processor, memory, input/output unit, bus;
所述处理器与所述存储器、所述输入输出单元以及所述总线相连;The processor is connected to the memory, the input and output unit and the bus;
所述处理器具体执行如下操作:The processor specifically performs the following operations:
获取电力指标和经济指标;Get electricity indicators and economic indicators;
将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内执行预处理操作,所述预 处理操作包括缺失值调整、季节因素调整、指标与GDP相关性分析以及指标归一化处理;Input the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations. The preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
通过Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator回归方法对GDP与所述指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;Regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool through the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression method;
基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标对应的评价指数。The evaluation index corresponding to the electric power indicator and the economic indicator is determined based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
可选的,所述处理器还用于执行第一方面中任意可选方案的操作。Optionally, the processor is also configured to perform operations of any optional solution in the first aspect.
本申请实施例第四方面提供了电力综合评价方法的计算机可读存储介质,包括:The fourth aspect of the embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium for a comprehensive power evaluation method, including:
所述计算机可读存储介质上保存有程序,所述程序在计算机上执行前述电力综合评价方法。The computer-readable storage medium stores a program, and the program executes the aforementioned power comprehensive evaluation method on the computer.
从以上技术方案可以看出,本申请实施例具有以下优点:本申请中,系统在获取到电力指标和经济指标后将电力指标和经济指标输入到指标池内进行缺失值调整、季节因素调整、指标与GDP相关性分析以及指标归一化处理等预处理,然后通过LASSO回归方法对GDP与指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归,最后基于回归产生的回归系数确定电力指标和经济指标对应的评价指数,本方法利用GDP同比增长率进行监督学习与高维数据分析,对指标进行变量选择以及赋权,与GDP相关性分析较大的变量会被保留及赋予较高权重,与GDP相关性较小的变量则舍弃,这样充分利用GDP本身所蕴含的信息得到的电力综合评价指数数据比较准确,实现对于电力的综合评价。It can be seen from the above technical solutions that the embodiments of the present application have the following advantages: In this application, after obtaining the power indicators and economic indicators, the system inputs the power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to adjust missing values, seasonal factors, and indicators. Pre-processing such as correlation analysis with GDP and indicator normalization processing, and then using the LASSO regression method to regress GDP and the pre-processed indicator data in the indicator pool, and finally determine the corresponding evaluation of power indicators and economic indicators based on the regression coefficients generated by the regression. Index, this method uses GDP year-on-year growth rate for supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis, and performs variable selection and weighting on the indicators. Variables with greater correlation analysis with GDP will be retained and given higher weights, and variables with greater correlation with GDP will be retained and given higher weights. Small variables are discarded, so that the comprehensive evaluation index data for electricity obtained by making full use of the information contained in GDP itself is more accurate and achieves a comprehensive evaluation of electricity.
附图说明Description of the drawings
图1为本申请实施例中电力综合评价方法的一个实施例流程示意图;Figure 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation method in the embodiment of the present application;
图2为本申请实施例中电力综合评价方法的另一个实施例流程示意图;Figure 2 is a schematic flow diagram of another embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation method in the embodiment of the present application;
图3为本申请实施例中电力综合评价装置的一个实施例结构示意图;Figure 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation device in the embodiment of the present application;
图4为本申请实施例中电力综合评价装置的另一个实施例结构示意图。Figure 4 is a schematic structural diagram of another embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation device in the embodiment of the present application.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
本申请实施例提供了一种电力综合评价方法及装置,用于通过GDP同比增长率进行监督学习与高维数据分析方式,充分利用GDP本身所蕴含的信息较为准确计算电力综合评价指数。The embodiments of this application provide a power comprehensive evaluation method and device, which are used to conduct supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis through GDP year-on-year growth rate, and make full use of the information contained in GDP itself to more accurately calculate the power comprehensive evaluation index.
本实施例中,电力综合评价方法可在系统中实现,可以在服务器实现,也可以在终端实现,具体不做明确限定。In this embodiment, the power comprehensive evaluation method can be implemented in the system, on the server, or on the terminal, and is not specifically limited.
请参阅图1,本申请实施例使用系统举例描述,本申请实施例中电力综合评价方法一个实施例包括:Please refer to Figure 1. The embodiment of the present application is described using a system example. An example of the power comprehensive evaluation method in the embodiment of the present application includes:
101、系统获取电力指标和经济指标;101. The system obtains power indicators and economic indicators;
本实施例中系统将电力消耗指标和经济发展指标作为综合评价的要素,并且引入电力指标与经济指标可以解决评价指标池不完善的问题,其中对于各级指标的定义以每个主体的特定来进行。In this embodiment, the system uses power consumption indicators and economic development indicators as elements of comprehensive evaluation, and the introduction of power indicators and economic indicators can solve the problem of incomplete evaluation indicator pools. The definitions of indicators at all levels are based on the specificity of each subject. conduct.
例如,电力指标可以包含供电量、购电量、售电量、线损电量、线损率、网损率、水电发电量、火电发电量、油电发电量、煤电发电量、燃气电发电量、光伏发电量、装机容量、电力公司利润总额、电力公司净利润、电力公司经济增加值、电力公司净资产收益率、电力公司国有资本保值增值率、电力公司总资产报酬率、电力公司营业收入、电力公司资产负债率、单位供电成本、单位购电成本、第一产业用电量、第二产业用电量、第三产业用电量、城乡居民用电、中心城区居民端综合电压合格率、城镇居民端综合电压合格率、农村居民端综合电压合格率、第三方客户满意度、中压线路故障率、停电用户平均停电次数、智能电表覆盖率以及区域各重点行业用电量等;For example, power indicators can include power supply, power purchase, power sales, line loss power, line loss rate, network loss rate, hydropower generation, thermal power generation, oil power generation, coal power generation, gas power generation, Photovoltaic power generation, installed capacity, total profit of the power company, net profit of the power company, economic added value of the power company, return on net assets of the power company, preservation and appreciation rate of state-owned capital of the power company, return on total assets of the power company, operating income of the power company, Asset-liability ratio of power companies, unit power supply cost, unit power purchase cost, primary industry electricity consumption, secondary industry electricity consumption, tertiary industry electricity consumption, urban and rural residential electricity consumption, central urban area residential comprehensive voltage qualification rate, Comprehensive voltage qualification rate for urban residents, comprehensive voltage qualification rate for rural residents, third-party customer satisfaction, medium-voltage line failure rate, average number of power outages for power outage users, smart meter coverage, and electricity consumption in key industries in the region, etc.;
经济指标可以包含原油加工产量、十种有色金属产量、纯碱产量、化学肥料产量、乙烯产量、水泥产量、粗钢产量、氧化铝产量、生铁产量、焦炭产量、原煤产量、房地产行业增加值、社会消费品零售总额、货运量、进出口总值、城镇居民家庭人均消费性支出、城镇居民家庭人均食品消费性支出、城镇居民家庭人均居住消费性支出、城镇居民家庭人均教育文化娱乐服务消费性支出、消费者信心指数、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、商品房销售价格、居民消费价格分类指数、工业生产者购进价格指数、工业生产者出厂价格指数、固定资产投资完成额、存货总额、铁路制造业成品月货运量以及海关出口月度人民币等。此外需要说明的是,各级指标的名称不做限制。Economic indicators can include crude oil processing output, output of ten non-ferrous metals, soda ash output, chemical fertilizer output, ethylene output, cement output, crude steel output, alumina output, pig iron output, coke output, raw coal output, added value of the real estate industry, social Total retail sales of consumer goods, freight volume, total import and export value, per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, per capita food consumption expenditure of urban households, per capita residential consumption expenditure of urban households, per capita consumption expenditure of education, culture and entertainment services of urban households, Consumer confidence index, per capita disposable income of urban households, commercial housing sales prices, consumer price classification index, industrial producer purchasing price index, industrial producer ex-factory price index, fixed asset investment completion, total inventory, railway manufacturing industry Monthly freight volume of finished products and monthly customs exports in RMB, etc. In addition, it should be noted that there are no restrictions on the names of indicators at all levels.
102、系统将电力指标和经济指标输入至指标池内执行预处理操作,预处理操作包括缺失值调整、季节因素调整、指标与GDP相关性分析以及指标归一化处理;102. The system inputs power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations. The preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
系统在选取电力指标和经济指标输入至指标池后对指标池内的指标数据进行预处理,其中预处理包括缺失值调整,即对存在少量缺失的数据采用平滑插值补充对大量缺失数据进行比例分析;季节因素调整则是在指数模型中去除季节因素的影响;指标与GDP相关性分析则是将同比增长率与GDP同比增长率进行相关性分析;指标归一化处理则是基于正向指标与负向指标对同比增长率进行归一化。After the system selects power indicators and economic indicators and inputs them into the indicator pool, it preprocesses the indicator data in the indicator pool. The preprocessing includes missing value adjustment, that is, smoothing interpolation is used to supplement a small amount of missing data and perform proportional analysis on a large amount of missing data; Seasonal factor adjustment is to remove the influence of seasonal factors in the index model; indicator and GDP correlation analysis is to conduct correlation analysis between year-on-year growth rate and GDP year-on-year growth rate; indicator normalization processing is based on positive indicators and negative indicators. The year-on-year growth rate is normalized to the indicator.
103、系统通过LASSO回归方法对GDP与指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;103. The system uses the LASSO regression method to regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool;
系统通过LASSO回归方法构建模型,然后进行变量选择,其中变量选择通过调节模型中的参数来实现,具体的,参数越大对变量较多的线性模型的惩罚力度就越大,从而得到一个变量较少的模型。而模型的确定则通过交叉验证法 来调整,例如给定一个参数λ,将λ代入模型进行交叉验证,选择交叉验证误差最小的λ值,然后根据得到的最优λ值,用全部数据重新拟合模型即可。The system builds a model through the LASSO regression method, and then performs variable selection, in which variable selection is achieved by adjusting the parameters in the model. Specifically, the larger the parameter, the greater the penalty for a linear model with more variables, thus obtaining a model with more variables. Fewer models. The determination of the model is adjusted through the cross-validation method. For example, given a parameter λ, substitute λ into the model for cross-validation, select the λ value with the smallest cross-validation error, and then re-fit it with all the data based on the optimal λ value obtained. Just fit the model.
本实施例中LASSO模型的表达式如下所示:The expression of the LASSO model in this embodiment is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000008
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000008
其中,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000009
为GDP取同比后的向量,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000010
为经过预处理的指标矩阵,ω j是对于某个指标进行惩罚项的权重,若指标的权重较大,入选指标池次数较多,则应赋予的惩罚权重较小。求解该模型后,估计参数β j为零对应的变量可以直接被排除出最终指数中指标池的构成。
in,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000009
is the year-on-year vector for GDP,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000010
is the preprocessed indicator matrix, and ω j is the weight of the penalty item for a certain indicator. If the weight of the indicator is larger and the indicator pool is selected more times, the penalty weight should be smaller. After solving the model, the variables corresponding to the estimated parameter β j being zero can be directly excluded from the composition of the indicator pool in the final index.
104、基于回归产生的回归系数系统确定电力指标和经济指标对应的评价指数。104. Based on the regression coefficient system generated by regression, the evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and economic indicator is determined.
通过如上步骤选出的d个指标,对应的参数向量为β,则第i个评价个体在t时刻的最终指数可以由以下公式进行计算:For the d indicators selected through the above steps, the corresponding parameter vector is β. Then the final index of the i-th evaluation individual at time t can be calculated by the following formula:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000011
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000011
系统使用该计算方式使得计算过程速度较快,得到的电力综合评价指数结构具有连续性、有序性以及低方差的特性,利用监督学习以及高维数据分析,减少了指数构建中变量体系冗杂从而削弱指标对指数贡献的问题,且有效提取了指标体系中GDP的信息,从而更好地实现利用电力经济指数进行电力综合评价。The system uses this calculation method to make the calculation process faster. The obtained power comprehensive evaluation index structure has the characteristics of continuity, order and low variance. It uses supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis to reduce the complexity of the variable system in index construction, thereby reducing the complexity of the variable system. It weakens the problem of the contribution of indicators to the index, and effectively extracts the GDP information in the indicator system, thereby better realizing the comprehensive evaluation of electric power using the electric power economic index.
请参阅图2,本申请实施例使用系统举例描述,本申请实施例中电力综合评价指标方法另一个实施例包括:Please refer to Figure 2. The embodiment of the present application is described using a system example. Another embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation index method in the embodiment of the present application includes:
201、系统获取电力指标和经济指标;201. The system obtains power indicators and economic indicators;
本实施例中的步骤201与前述实施例中步骤101类似,此处不做赘述。Step 201 in this embodiment is similar to step 101 in the previous embodiment, and will not be described again here.
202、系统将电力指标和经济指标输入至指标池内调整指标缺失值;202. The system inputs the power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to adjust the missing values of the indicators;
系统通过平滑插值法对指标池内存在少量缺失的数据进行补充,公式如下:The system uses smooth interpolation to supplement a small amount of missing data in the indicator pool. The formula is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000012
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000012
其中,x i,t-1和x i,t+1为第i个指标t-1季度或月度和t+1季度或月度的数值,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000013
即需要插入的数值,即第i个指标的t季度或月度的数值缺失,插入
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000014
作为替代。
Among them, x i,t-1 and x i,t+1 are the values of the i-th indicator t-1 quarterly or monthly and t+1 quarterly or monthly,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000013
That is, the value that needs to be inserted, that is, the value of t quarter or month of the i-th indicator is missing, insert
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000014
as an alternative.
对于数据缺失量较大的数据,根据其已有数据与全国数据的比例分析,以全国数据乘以平均以后的比例对该数值加以插补,公式如下:For data with a large amount of missing data, based on the ratio analysis of existing data and national data, the value is interpolated by multiplying the national data by the average. The formula is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000015
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000015
n为总季度数,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000016
为已知的第i个指标k季度的数值,x i,k为第i个指标k季度的全国数值,x i,t为第i个指标t季度的全国数值,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000017
即需要插入的数值。
n is the total number of quarters,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000016
is the known value of the i-th indicator in quarter k, x i,k is the national value of the i-th indicator in quarter k, x i,t is the national value of the i-th indicator in quarter t,
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000017
That is the value that needs to be inserted.
203、系统将电力指标和经济指标输入至指标池内调整季节因素;203. The system inputs power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to adjust seasonal factors;
系统首先使用同比调整法去除季节因素,若进行同比调整后仍具有明显季节效应,则采用X-12-ARIMA季节调整法处理,其中同比调整法的公式为:The system first uses the year-on-year adjustment method to remove seasonal factors. If there is still an obvious seasonal effect after year-on-year adjustment, the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method is used. The formula for the year-on-year adjustment method is:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000018
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000018
x i,t是第i个指标t季度的数值,x i,t-12为指标的去年同期值。将所有指标值减去去年同期值,所得到的的差除以去年同期值x i,t-12,即可以得到指标的同比增长率。所得到的的同比增长率去除了季节效应以及量纲。本发明首先通过计算同比增长率的方法进行季节因素的调整,便于计算且能够较为有效地去除季节效应。 x i,t is the value of the i-th indicator in quarter t, and x i,t-12 is the value of the indicator in the same period last year. Subtract all indicator values from the same period last year, and divide the resulting difference by the same period last year x i,t-12 to obtain the year-on-year growth rate of the indicator. The obtained year-on-year growth rate removes seasonal effects and dimensions. The present invention first adjusts seasonal factors by calculating the year-on-year growth rate, which facilitates calculation and can effectively remove seasonal effects.
X-12-ARIMA季节调整法的公式为:The formula of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method is:
Y t=T t×S t×I t Y t =T t ×S t ×I t
T t代表时间序列的趋势,S t代表时间序列的季节性,I t代表不规则的扰动因素,X-12-ARIMA季节调整法通过移动平均算法分解出时间序列的趋势和季节性,再通过原始序列除以季节效应得到去季节性的新的时间序列结果。 T t represents the trend of the time series, S t represents the seasonality of the time series, and I t represents irregular disturbance factors. The X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method decomposes the trend and seasonality of the time series through the moving average algorithm, and then uses The original series is divided by the seasonal effect to obtain a new time series result with no seasonality.
204、系统将电力指标和经济指标输入至指标池内进行指标与GDP相关性分析;204. The system inputs power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to analyze the correlation between indicators and GDP;
系统将各同比增长率与GDP同比增长率进行相关性分析,对于指标中相关性较大且在时间维度上表现稳定的指标入选至指标体系;对于与GDP同比增长率正相关的指标记为正指标,反之则记为逆指标。The system performs correlation analysis on each year-on-year growth rate and GDP year-on-year growth rate. Among the indicators, indicators with greater correlation and stable performance in the time dimension are selected into the indicator system; indicators that are positively correlated with GDP year-on-year growth rate are marked as positive. indicator, otherwise it is recorded as an inverse indicator.
205、系统将电力指标和经济指标输入指标池内进行指标归一化处理;205. The system inputs the power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool for normalization of the indicators;
系统为了方便接下来的赋权步骤,对所有的同比增长率进行归一化处理。In order to facilitate the next weighting step, the system normalizes all year-on-year growth rates.
归一化公式如下:The normalization formula is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000019
Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-000019
其中,max(x i)表示序列{x i}的最大值;min(x i)代表序列{x i}的最小值。 Among them, max( xi ) represents the maximum value of the sequence { xi }; min( xi ) represents the minimum value of the sequence { xi }.
206、系统通过LASSO回归方法对GDP与指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;206. The system uses the LASSO regression method to regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool;
本实施例中步骤206与前述实施例中的步骤103类似,此处不做赘述。Step 206 in this embodiment is similar to step 103 in the previous embodiment, and will not be described again here.
207、系统基于回归产生的回归系数确定电力指标和经济指标的权重;207. The system determines the weight of power indicators and economic indicators based on the regression coefficients generated by regression;
系统将LASSO回归方法在指标池内进行回归产生的回归系数作为指标体系的权重,对指标赋权,使得可以根据权重点电力指标和经济指标进行赋值计算。The system uses the regression coefficients generated by the LASSO regression method in the indicator pool as the weight of the indicator system, and empowers the indicators so that value assignment calculations can be performed based on weighted power indicators and economic indicators.
208、系统根据权重对电力指标和经济指标进行赋值计算得到评价指数。208. The system assigns values to power indicators and economic indicators based on weights and calculates the evaluation index.
系统根据设定的权重对电力指标和经济指标进行赋值计算最终得到较为准确的评价指数。本发明通过LASSO回归方法可以利用GDP蕴含的信息起到一个 监督学习的作用,从而更好地对高维的电力大数据进行变量选择以及赋权。监督学习以及高维数据分析可以有效减少指数构建中变量体系冗杂从而削弱指标对指数贡献的问题,且有效提取了指标体系中GDP的信息,从而更好地实现利用电力经济指数进行电力综合评价。The system assigns values to power indicators and economic indicators based on the set weights and finally obtains a more accurate evaluation index. The present invention can use the information contained in GDP to play a supervised learning role through the LASSO regression method, thereby better selecting and empowering variables for high-dimensional electric power big data. Supervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis can effectively reduce the problem of redundant variable systems in index construction, thereby weakening the contribution of indicators to the index, and effectively extract the GDP information in the indicator system, thereby better realizing the use of electric power economic indexes for comprehensive evaluation of electric power.
请参阅图3,本申请实施例中电力综合评价装置一个实施例包括:Please refer to Figure 3. An embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation device in the embodiment of this application includes:
获取单元301,用于获取电力指标和经济指标;The acquisition unit 301 is used to acquire power indicators and economic indicators;
执行单元302,用于将电力指标和经济指标输入至指标池内执行预处理操作,预处理操作包括调整指标缺失值、调整指标含有的季节因素、对指标进行相关性分析以及对指标进行归一化处理;The execution unit 302 is used to input power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations. The preprocessing operations include adjusting missing values of indicators, adjusting seasonal factors contained in indicators, performing correlation analysis on indicators, and normalizing indicators. deal with;
回归单元303,用于通过LASSO回归方法对GDP与指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;The regression unit 303 is used to regress GDP and preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool through the LASSO regression method;
确定单元304,用于基于回归产生的回归系数确定电力指标和经济指标对应的评价指数。The determination unit 304 is configured to determine the evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
本实施例中,执行单元302包括缺失值调整模块、季节因素调整模块、指标与GDP相关性分析模块以及指标归一化处理模块。In this embodiment, the execution unit 302 includes a missing value adjustment module, a seasonal factor adjustment module, an indicator and GDP correlation analysis module, and an indicator normalization processing module.
缺失值调整模块3021,用于通过平滑插值法对指标池内存在少量缺失的数据进行补充以及根据数据比例分析方式对指标池内缺失量较大的数据进行插补。The missing value adjustment module 3021 is used to supplement a small amount of missing data in the indicator pool through the smooth interpolation method and to interpolate a large amount of missing data in the indicator pool according to the data proportion analysis method.
季节因素调整模块3022,用于采用同比调整法与X-12-ARIMA季节调整法对指标池内的数据去除季节因素。The seasonal factor adjustment module 3022 is used to remove seasonal factors from the data in the indicator pool using the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method.
指标与GDP相关性分析3023,用于将指标池内的数据同比增长率与GDP同比增长率进行相关性分析。Indicator and GDP correlation analysis 3023 is used to perform correlation analysis between the year-on-year growth rate of data in the indicator pool and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP.
指标归一化处理模块3024,用于将指标池内同比增长率进行归一化处理。The indicator normalization processing module 3024 is used to normalize the year-on-year growth rate in the indicator pool.
本实施例中确定单元304包括确定模块3041和计算模块3042。In this embodiment, the determination unit 304 includes a determination module 3041 and a calculation module 3042.
确定模块3041,用于基于回归产生的回归系数确定电力指标和经济指标的权重; Determination module 3041, used to determine the weight of power indicators and economic indicators based on the regression coefficients generated by regression;
计算模块3042,用于根据权重对电力指标和经济指标进行赋值计算得到评价指数。The calculation module 3042 is used to assign and calculate the power indicators and economic indicators according to the weights to obtain the evaluation index.
本实施例中,获取单元301在获取到电力指标和经济指标后执行单元302将电力指标和经济指标输入至指标池内进行预处理操作,其中缺失值调整模块3021通过平滑插值法对指标池内存在少量缺失的数据进行补充以及根据数据比例分析方式对指标池内缺失量较大的数据进行插补;季节因素调整模块3022采用同比调整法与X-12-ARIMA季节调整法对指标池内的数据去除季节因素;季节因素调整模块3022采用同比调整法与X-12-ARIMA季节调整法对指标池内的数据去除季节因素;指标归一化处理模块3024将指标池内同比增长率进行归一化处理,回归单元303则通过LASSO回归方法对GDP与指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归,确定单元304中的确定模块根据回归产生的回归系数确定权重,最后计算模块3042根据权重对电力指标和经济指标进行赋值计算得到比较准确的评价指数,本发明充分利用GDP本身所蕴含的信息得到的电力综合评价指数数据比较准确,实现对于电力的综合评价。In this embodiment, after the acquisition unit 301 obtains the electric power index and the economic index, the execution unit 302 inputs the electric power index and the economic index into the index pool for preprocessing operation, in which the missing value adjustment module 3021 uses the smooth interpolation method to adjust the small amount of data in the index pool. Missing data are supplemented and large missing data in the indicator pool are interpolated according to the data proportion analysis method; the seasonal factor adjustment module 3022 uses the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method to remove seasonal factors from the data in the indicator pool. ; The seasonal factor adjustment module 3022 uses the year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method to remove seasonal factors from the data in the indicator pool; the indicator normalization processing module 3024 normalizes the year-on-year growth rate in the indicator pool, and the regression unit 303 Then the GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool are regressed through the LASSO regression method. The determination module in the determination unit 304 determines the weight according to the regression coefficient generated by the regression. Finally, the calculation module 3042 performs assignment calculation on the power indicators and economic indicators based on the weight. A relatively accurate evaluation index is obtained. The present invention makes full use of the information contained in GDP itself to obtain relatively accurate electric power comprehensive evaluation index data, thereby realizing a comprehensive evaluation of electric power.
请参阅图4,本申请实施例中电力综合评价装置另一个实施例包括:Please refer to Figure 4. Another embodiment of the power comprehensive evaluation device in the embodiment of the present application includes:
处理器401、存储器402、输入确定单元403、总线404; Processor 401, memory 402, input determination unit 403, bus 404;
处理器401与存储器402、输入确定单元403以及总线404相连;The processor 401 is connected to the memory 402, the input determination unit 403 and the bus 404;
处理器401执行如下操作: Processor 401 performs the following operations:
获取电力指标和经济指标;Get electricity indicators and economic indicators;
将电力指标和经济指标输入至指标池内执行预处理操作,预处理操作包括缺失值调整、季节因素调整、指标与GDP相关性分析以及指标归一化处理;Input power indicators and economic indicators into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations. The preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
通过LASSO回归方法对GDP与指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;Use the LASSO regression method to regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool;
基于回归产生的回归系数确定电力指标和经济指标对应的评价指数。The evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and economic indicator is determined based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
可选的,处理器401的功能与前述图1至图2所示实施例中的步骤对应,此处不做赘述。Optionally, the functions of the processor 401 correspond to the steps in the aforementioned embodiment shown in FIGS. 1 to 2 , and will not be described again here.
所属领域的技术人员可以清楚地了解到,为描述的方便和简洁,上述描述的系统,装置和单元的具体工作过程,可以参考前述方法实施例中的对应过程,在此不再赘述。Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that for the convenience and simplicity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices and units described above can be referred to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be described again here.
在本申请所提供的几个实施例中,应该理解到,所揭露的系统,装置和方法,可以通过其它的方式实现。例如,以上所描述的装置实施例仅仅是示意性的,例如,所述单元的划分,仅仅为一种逻辑功能划分,实际实现时可以有另外的划分方式,例如多个单元或组件可以结合或者可以集成到另一个系统,或一些特征可以忽略,或不执行。另一点,所显示或讨论的相互之间的耦合或直接耦合或通信连接可以是通过一些接口,装置或单元的间接耦合或通信连接,可以是电性,机械或其它的形式。In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed systems, devices and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device embodiments described above are only illustrative. For example, the division of the units is only a logical function division. In actual implementation, there may be other division methods. For example, multiple units or components may be combined or can be integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored, or not implemented. On the other hand, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection between each other shown or discussed may be through some interfaces, and the indirect coupling or communication connection of the devices or units may be in electrical, mechanical or other forms.
所述作为分离部件说明的单元可以是或者也可以不是物理上分开的,作为单元显示的部件可以是或者也可以不是物理单元,即可以位于一个地方,或者也可以分布到多个网络单元上。可以根据实际的需要选择其中的部分或者全部单元来实现本实施例方案的目的。The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed to multiple network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
另外,在本申请各个实施例中的各功能单元可以集成在一个处理单元中,也可以是各个单元单独物理存在,也可以两个或两个以上单元集成在一个单元中。上述集成的单元既可以采用硬件的形式实现,也可以采用软件功能单元的形式实现。In addition, each functional unit in various embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist physically alone, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit. The above integrated units can be implemented in the form of hardware or software functional units.
所述集成的单元如果以软件功能单元的形式实现并作为独立的产品销售或 使用时,可以存储在一个计算机可读取存储介质中。基于这样的理解,本申请的技术方案本质上或者说对现有技术做出贡献的部分或者该技术方案的全部或部分可以以软件产品的形式体现出来,该计算机软件产品存储在一个存储介质中,包括若干指令用以使得一台计算机设备(可以是个人计算机,服务器,或者网络设备等)执行本申请各个实施例所述方法的全部或部分步骤。而前述的存储介质包括:U盘、移动硬盘、只读存储器(ROM,read-only memory)、随机存取存储器(RAM,random access memory)、磁碟或者光盘等各种可以存储程序代码的介质。If the integrated unit is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application is essentially or contributes to the existing technology, or all or part of the technical solution can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium , including several instructions to cause a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods described in various embodiments of this application. The aforementioned storage media include: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, read-only memory), random access memory (RAM, random access memory), magnetic disk or optical disk and other media that can store program code. .

Claims (8)

  1. 一种电力综合评价方法,其特征在于,包括:A comprehensive evaluation method for electric power, which is characterized by including:
    获取电力指标和经济指标;Get electricity indicators and economic indicators;
    将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内执行预处理操作,所述预处理操作包括缺失值调整、季节因素调整、指标与GDP相关性分析以及指标归一化处理;Input the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations. The preprocessing operations include missing value adjustment, seasonal factor adjustment, correlation analysis between indicators and GDP, and indicator normalization processing;
    通过Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator回归方法对GDP与所述指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;Regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool through the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression method;
    基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标对应的评价指数。The evaluation index corresponding to the electric power indicator and the economic indicator is determined based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
  2. 根据权利要求1所述的方法,其特征在于,所述将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内调整指标缺失值,包括:The method according to claim 1, characterized in that said inputting the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to adjust the missing value of the indicator includes:
    通过平滑插值法对指标池内存在少量缺失的数据进行补充;A small amount of missing data in the indicator pool is supplemented through smooth interpolation;
    根据数据比例分析方式对指标池内缺失量较大的数据进行插补。Interpolate data with a large amount of missing data in the indicator pool according to the data proportion analysis method.
  3. 根据权利要求1所述的方法,其特征在于,所述将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内调整指标季节因素,包括:The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, inputting the power indicator and the economic indicator into an indicator pool to adjust the indicator seasonal factors includes:
    采用同比调整法与X-12-ARIMA季节调整法对指标池内的指标数据去除季节因素。The year-on-year adjustment method and the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method are used to remove seasonal factors from the indicator data in the indicator pool.
  4. 根据权利要求1所述的方法,其特征在于,所述将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内进行指标与GDP相关性分析,包括:The method according to claim 1, characterized in that said inputting said electric power indicator and said economic indicator into an indicator pool to perform correlation analysis between indicators and GDP includes:
    将指标池内的指标同比增长率与GDP同比增长率进行相关性分析。Conduct correlation analysis between the year-on-year growth rate of indicators in the indicator pool and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP.
  5. 根据权利要求4所述的方法,其特征在于,所述将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内对指标进行归一化处理,包括:The method according to claim 4, characterized in that said inputting the power indicator and the economic indicator into an indicator pool to normalize the indicators includes:
    将指标池内所述指标同比增长率进行归一化处理,归一化公式为
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100001
    其中,max(x i)表示序列{x i}的最大值;min(x i)代表序列{x i}的最小值。
    The year-on-year growth rate of the indicators in the indicator pool is normalized. The normalization formula is:
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100001
    Among them, max( xi ) represents the maximum value of the sequence { xi }; min( xi ) represents the minimum value of the sequence { xi }.
  6. 根据权利要求1所述的方法,其特征在于,所述LASSO回归的公式为
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100002
    其中
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100003
    为经过预处理后的GDP同比增长率,
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100004
    为经过预处理后的指标池,
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100005
    为经过预处理后的指标,β为回归系数向量,ω j为各指标的惩罚权重。
    The method according to claim 1, characterized in that the formula of the LASSO regression is
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100002
    in
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100003
    is the preprocessed GDP year-on-year growth rate,
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100004
    is the preprocessed indicator pool,
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100005
    is the preprocessed indicator, β is the regression coefficient vector, and ω j is the penalty weight of each indicator.
  7. 根据权利要求1所述的方法,其特征在于,所述基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标对应的评价指数,包括:The method of claim 1, wherein determining the evaluation index corresponding to the power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression includes:
    基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标的权重;Determine the weight of the electric power indicator and the economic indicator based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression;
    根据所述权重对所述电力指标和所述经济指标进行赋值计算得到评价指数,计算公式为
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100006
    其中β为对应的参数向量。
    The electric power indicator and the economic indicator are assigned and calculated according to the weight to obtain an evaluation index. The calculation formula is:
    Figure PCTCN2022115190-appb-100006
    where β is the corresponding parameter vector.
  8. 一种电力综合评价装置,其特征在于,包括:An electric power comprehensive evaluation device, characterized by including:
    获取单元,用于获取电力指标和经济指标;Acquisition unit, used to obtain power indicators and economic indicators;
    执行单元,用于将所述电力指标和所述经济指标输入至指标池内执行预处理操作,所述预处理操作包括调整指标缺失值、调整指标含有的季节因素、对指标进行相关性分析以及对指标进行归一化处理;Execution unit, used to input the power indicator and the economic indicator into the indicator pool to perform preprocessing operations. The preprocessing operations include adjusting missing values of the indicators, adjusting seasonal factors contained in the indicators, performing correlation analysis on the indicators, and The indicators are normalized;
    回归单元,用于通过LASSO回归方法对GDP与所述指标池内预处理后的指标数据进行回归;A regression unit used to regress GDP and the preprocessed indicator data in the indicator pool through the LASSO regression method;
    确定单元,用于基于所述回归产生的回归系数确定所述电力指标和所述经济指标对应的评价指数。A determining unit configured to determine an evaluation index corresponding to the electric power index and the economic index based on the regression coefficient generated by the regression.
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