WO2023157263A1

WO2023157263A1 - Information processing device, information processing program, and information processing method

Info

Publication number: WO2023157263A1
Application number: PCT/JP2022/006776
Authority: WO
Inventors: 晋一郎大谷; 冬樹佐藤; 順之山口
Original assignee: 三菱電機株式会社; 学校法人東京理科大学
Priority date: 2022-02-18
Filing date: 2022-02-18
Publication date: 2023-08-24
Also published as: JPWO2023157263A1

Abstract

This information processing device (100) comprises a normal simulation unit (20A), an abnormal simulation unit (20B), and an integration unit (32). The normal simulation unit (20A) calculates, with respect to origination/accumulation equipment that generates and/or accumulates electric power and that is a subject of inspection as to whether installation has occurred, a normal probability distribution representing the cost involved in running under normal circumstances, which indicates a period defined as being normal. The abnormal simulation unit (20B) calculates, with respect to the origination/accumulation equipment, an abnormal probability distribution representing the cost involved in running under abnormal circumstances, which indicates a period defined as being abnormal. The integration unit (32) synthesizes the normal probability distribution and the abnormal probability distribution. Through said synthesis, the integration unit (32) calculates a synthesized probability distribution in which both the running of the origination/accumulation equipment under normal circumstances and the running of the origination/accumulation equipment under abnormal circumstances are taken into consideration.

Description

Information processing device, information processing program and information processing method

The present disclosure relates to an information processing device, an information processing program, and an information processing method for calculating a probability distribution regarding operating costs of creation-storage equipment.

In recent years, companies have been promoting the introduction of photovoltaic (PV) and storage batteries that can generate their own power in order to prevent important business from being interrupted even in the event of a disaster. In addition, companies are proceeding with the formulation of BCPs (Business Continuity Plans), which are operational plans in the event of a disaster for the installed storage facilities. In addition to providing emergency power sources in the event of a disaster, the energy-storage facilities that have been introduced will also be used during normal times to reduce electricity bills by reducing contract demand through peak cut control. When introducing energy generation and storage equipment, it is necessary to prevent an increase in initial investment costs due to the selection of energy generation and storage equipment with excessive capacity and a shortage of power supply during operation due to the selection of energy generation and storage equipment with insufficient capacity. . For this reason, it is required to select the generation/storage facility with the optimum capacity.

In addition, the capacity evaluation of creation-storage facilities uses the investment effect obtained from the initial investment costs incurred when introducing the creation-storage facilities and the operating costs incurred by the operation of the creation-storage facilities after introduction. (For example, Patent Document 1).

In order to calculate the investment effect from the initial investment cost incurred when introducing the creation-storage facility and the operation cost incurred by operating the creation-storage facility after introduction, the initial investment cost at the time of introduction and the operation of the creation-storage facility It is necessary to determine the operational costs incurred. The operation cost of the creation-storage facility is divided into normal operation cost and disaster operation cost. The normal operation cost of the creation-storage equipment is the operation cost of the creation-storage equipment related to payment of electricity bills including the effects of peak cut control during normal times. The operation cost of the creation-storage facility during a disaster is the operation cost of the creation-storage facility that is incurred due to the interruption or reduction of business when a disaster occurs. In order to estimate the operation cost of the energy storage facility in the event of a disaster, items such as the time of occurrence of the disaster, the scale of the disaster, the length of the power outage period from the grid, the damage to the company, and the cost of the company's response are necessary.
However, since these matters are uncertain, it is difficult to obtain the operation cost in advance at the time of planning the introduction of the energy saving equipment.

On the other hand, with regard to operating costs during a disaster, the probability distribution of the cost and the capacity of the generation/storage equipment is obtained from simulations assuming various conditions. It is also possible to calculate the operating costs of the storage facility.

Patent No. 6669844

However, a method with a high computational load, such as the Monte Carlo method, is used to calculate operating costs. Therefore, there is a problem that these calculations require a high-performance computer and an enormous amount of time.

The present disclosure aims to provide a device that reduces the computational load when calculating the operating cost of the creation and storage facility.

The information processing device according to the present disclosure is
The normal probability distribution, which is the probability distribution of costs in normal operation that indicates the period defined as normal, for the generation and storage equipment that is the subject of consideration whether or not to be introduced and that performs at least one of power generation and storage a normal simulation unit for calculating;
an emergency simulation unit that calculates an emergency probability distribution, which is a probability distribution of costs in operation in an emergency indicating a period defined as an emergency, for the creation-storage equipment;
Combining the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution, the combined probability is a probability distribution that takes into account the normal operation of the creation-storage equipment and the emergency operation of the creation-storage equipment. an integration unit that calculates the distribution;
Prepare.

An information processing device according to the present disclosure includes an integration unit. Therefore, according to the information processing apparatus according to the present disclosure, the capacity of the creation-storage equipment with high investment effect can be obtained with a small amount of calculation, taking into consideration both normal operation and operation in the event of a disaster.

2 is a diagram of the first embodiment and shows functional blocks of the information processing apparatus 100; FIG. 2 is a diagram of the first embodiment and shows a hardware configuration of the information processing apparatus 100; FIG. 4 is a diagram of the first embodiment and is a flow chart showing the operation of the information processing apparatus 100. FIG. FIG. 2 is a diagram of the first embodiment, in which exchanged information is shown in FIG. 1; Fig. 10 is a diagram of the first embodiment, showing the probability distribution of the operation cost of the creation-storage equipment during normal times; FIG. 10 is a diagram of the first embodiment, showing a probability distribution of operating costs of the creation-storage equipment in an emergency; The diagram of the first embodiment, showing a probability distribution obtained by synthesizing the probability distribution of the operation cost of the creation-storage equipment during normal times and the probability distribution of the operation cost of the creation-storage equipment during an emergency. FIG. 10 is a diagram of the second embodiment and shows functional blocks of the information processing apparatus 100; FIG. 10 is a diagram of the second embodiment and shows a hardware configuration of the information processing apparatus 100; FIG. 10 is a diagram of the second embodiment and is a flowchart showing the operation of the information processing apparatus 100; FIG. 12 is a diagram of the third embodiment and supplements the hardware configuration of the information processing apparatus 100;

In the description and drawings of the embodiments, the same elements and corresponding elements are given the same reference numerals.
Descriptions of elements with the same reference numerals are omitted or simplified as appropriate. In the following embodiments, "unit" may be read as "circuit", "process", "procedure", "process" or "circuitry" as appropriate.

Embodiment 1.
An information processing apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 to 7. FIG.

*** Configuration description ***
FIG. 1 shows functional blocks of an information processing apparatus 100 . The information processing device 100 calculates the probability density when operating the creation-storage equipment. The random variable is the operating cost incurred when operating the creation-storage facility. The information processing apparatus 100 includes a storage unit 40, a normal scenario generation unit 10A, an emergency scenario generation unit 10B, a normal simulation unit 20A, an emergency simulation unit 20B, a preprocessing unit 31, and an integration unit 32 as functions.

The storage unit 40 includes an operation record storage unit 41, a creation/storage facility storage unit 42, a normal operation storage unit 43A, and an emergency operation storage unit 43B. The function of each storage device in FIG. 1 will be described.

<Operating result storage unit 41>
The operation record storage unit 41 stores time-series data of power consumption for each demand facility installed in the building. The time-series data of power consumption are actual operating results. A demand facility is a facility that receives power supply from a creation/storage facility. A plurality of demand facilities may be denoted as facility i (i=1, . . . , N). As the time-series data of the power consumption of the facility i, the power consumption obtained from the actual received power of the entire building and the operation performance of the facility i may be used.

<Creation/storage facility storage unit 42>
The creation-storage facility storage unit 42 stores information such as the facility specifications of the creation-storage facility, which is a candidate for the calculation target, and the price of the creation-storage facility. The capacity of the selected creation-storage facility is held as the upper limit of constraints such as the budget of the decision maker of facility investment.

<Normal Operation Storage Unit 43A>
The normal operation storage unit 43A stores the "operation plan of the facility i during normal times" and the contract information with the electric power company, etc., which are required for the cost simulation during normal times.

<Emergency Operation Storage Unit 43B>
The emergency operation storage unit 43B stores an emergency "operation plan for facility i" and company information based on BCP, which are required for cost simulation in an emergency.

The functions of the normal scenario generation unit 10A, the emergency scenario generation unit 10B, the normal simulation unit 20A, the emergency simulation unit 20B, the preprocessing unit 31, and the integration unit 32 will be described in the description of operations.

FIG. 2 shows the hardware configuration of the information processing device 100. As shown in FIG. The information processing device 100 is a computer. The information processing device 100 includes a processor 110 . The information processing device 100 includes a plurality of pieces of hardware in addition to the processor 110 . The multiple pieces of hardware are main storage device 120 , auxiliary storage device 130 , input interface 140 , output interface 150 and communication interface 160 . Processor 110 is connected to other hardware via signal line 170 and controls the other hardware.

In the information processing device 100, the storage unit 40 in FIG. 1 is realized by the auxiliary storage device 130. Functions of the normal scenario generation unit 10A, the emergency scenario generation unit 10B, the normal simulation unit 20A, the emergency simulation unit 20B, the preprocessing unit 31, and the integration unit 32 are implemented by the information processing program 101. FIG. The information processing program 101 is stored in the auxiliary storage device 130 .

The processor 110 is a device that executes the information processing program 101 . By executing the information processing program 101 by the processor 110, the functions of the normal scenario generation unit 10A, the emergency scenario generation unit 10B, the normal simulation unit 20A, the emergency simulation unit 20B, the preprocessing unit 31, and the integration unit 32 are realized. The processor 110 is an IC (Integrated Circuit) that performs arithmetic processing. Specific examples of the processor 110 are a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a DSP (Digital Signal Processor), and a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit).

The main memory device 120 is a storage device. Specific examples of the main memory device 120 are SRAM (Static Random Access Memory) and DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory). The main memory device 120 holds the computation results of the processor 110 .

The auxiliary storage device 130 is a storage device that stores data in a non-volatile manner. A specific example of the auxiliary storage device 130 is an HDD (Hard Disk Drive). Also, the auxiliary storage device 130 may be a portable recording medium. Portable recording media include SD (registered trademark) (Secure Digital) memory cards, NAND flash, flexible disks, optical disks, compact disks, Blu-ray (registered trademark) disks, and DVD (Digital Versatile Disks). Auxiliary storage device 130 stores information processing program 101 .

The input interface 140 is a port through which data is input from each device. In FIG. 2, an input device 141 is connected to the input interface 140 . Various devices are connected to the output interface 150 . The output interface 150 is a port through which data is output by the processor 110 to various devices. In FIG. 2, an output device 151 is connected to the output interface 150 . Communication interface 160 is a communication port for the processor to communicate with other devices. In FIG. 2, a communication device 161 is connected to the communication interface 160 .

The processor 110 loads the information processing program 101 from the auxiliary storage device 130 to the main storage device 120 . The processor 110 reads the loaded information processing program 101 from the main storage device 120 and executes it. In addition to the information processing program 101, the main storage device 120 also stores an OS (Operating System). The processor 110 executes the information processing program 101 while executing the OS. Information processing apparatus 100 may include a plurality of processors that substitute for processor 110 . These multiple processors share the execution of the information processing program 101 . Each processor, like the processor 110, is a device that executes the information processing program 101. FIG. Data, information, signal values, and variable values that are used, processed, or output by the information processing program 101 are stored in the main memory device 120, the auxiliary memory device 130, or the registers or cache memory within the processor 110. FIG.

The information processing program 101 uses the normal scenario generation unit 10A, the emergency scenario generation unit 10B, the normal simulation unit 20A, the emergency simulation unit 20B, the preprocessing unit 31, and the integration unit 32 as “processing”, “procedure”, or “units”. It is a program that causes a computer to execute each process, each procedure, or each process read as "process".

Also, the information processing method is a method performed by executing the information processing program 101 by the information processing device 100 which is a computer. The information processing program 101 may be stored in a computer-readable recording medium and provided, or may be provided as a program product.

Note that in FIG. 2, the information processing device 100 is a single computer. However, the information processing apparatus 100 may be composed of a plurality of computers that can communicate with each other. Alternatively, the information processing device 100 may be part of a building management system.

The operation of the information processing apparatus 100 will be described with reference to FIGS. 3 to 7. FIG.

***Description of operation***
Operations of the information processing apparatus 100 will be described.
FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing the operation of the information processing apparatus 100. As shown in FIG.
FIG. 4 is a diagram describing information exchanged in FIG.

<Step S1>
In step S1, the normal scenario generator 10A generates a normal scenario for each demand facility. The normal scenario generation unit 10A acquires time-series data of the power consumption of the equipment i from the operation record storage unit 41 as the operation record of the equipment i (i=1, . . . , N), which is the demand equipment. The normal scenario generation unit 10A generates a plurality of scenarios regarding power consumption in normal times based on the time-series data of the power consumption of the facility i. Each scenario of a plurality of scenarios regarding power consumption in normal times is referred to as a normal scenario. The normal scenario generation unit 10A outputs the generated multiple normal scenarios to the normal simulation unit 20A.

A normal scenario is time-series data of the power consumption of equipment i during a specific period. The period of the normal scenario is set to about one year to several years, which enables expression of the operation of the facility i during normal times. The normal scenario may be created from the time-series data acquired from the operation record storage unit 41, or may be randomly generated using the existing Monte Carlo method or the like based on the acquired time-series data. In addition, the normal scenario generator 10A may also create a mathematical model of power consumption using the past weather and the history of personnel activities in the facility, and create using the mathematical model.

<Step S2>
In step S2, the normal simulation unit 20A calculates a normal probability distribution, which will be described later, which is the probability distribution of costs in normal operation for the creation-storage equipment. Here, the creation/storage facility is an object of consideration as to whether or not to introduce it, and performs at least one of generation and storage of electric power. In addition, "normal time" indicates a period defined as normal. The normal scenario generator 10A creates a plurality of normal scenarios according to the definition of "normal time". Then, the normal simulation unit 20A generates a normal probability distribution, which will be described later, using a plurality of normal scenarios, as shown in FIG.

The normal simulation unit 20A calculates a normal probability distribution, which will be described later, based on a plurality of normal scenarios, capacity information indicating the capacity of the creation-storage equipment, and an operation plan of the creation-storage equipment during normal times. The normal scenario is to generate a normal probability distribution based on the time-series data of power consumption that indicates the operation performance of each demand facility of multiple demand facilities that receive power supply from the creation and storage facility when the creation and storage facility is introduced. This is the time-series data of the power consumption of each demand facility generated in Here, the demand facility is facility i.
A specific description will be given below.
The normal simulation section 20A
(1) a plurality of normal scenarios of normal power consumption created in step S1;
(2) "Normal operation plan for creation-storage equipment" acquired from the normal operation storage unit 43A;
(3) contract information between the electric power company and the "target company" acquired from the normal operation storage unit 43A;
(4) capacity information of the creation-storage equipment to be calculated acquired from the creation-storage equipment storage unit 42;
, the probability distribution of the operating costs of the creation-storage equipment during normal times is calculated.
This probability distribution may be referred to as normal probability distribution. The normal simulation unit 20A outputs the calculated probability distribution to the preprocessing unit 31 .

Existing methods such as linear programming can be used to calculate the cost. The normal simulation unit 20A uses linear programming for cost calculation. The normal simulation unit 20A applies the linear programming method to all normal scenarios of power consumption acquired from the normal scenario generation unit 10A, thereby calculating a plurality of operation costs of the generation/storage equipment during normal times. Then, as described above, the normal simulation unit 20A calculates the probability distribution of the operation costs that occur during normal operation of the creation-storage equipment from the plurality of calculated operation costs, and outputs the probability distribution to the preprocessing unit 31. do.

Fig. 5 shows the probability distribution of the operating costs of the creation-storage equipment during normal times. The horizontal axis is a random variable representing operating costs that occur during normal operations. Operating costs on the horizontal axis are discretized. The vertical axis indicates the probability density for discretized costs.

<Step S3>
In step S3, the emergency scenario generator 10B
(1) time-series data of power consumption of each demand facility acquired from the operation record storage unit 41;
(2) the type of disaster to be calculated acquired from the emergency operation storage unit 43B;
(3) From the operation plan of the creation and storage equipment in the event of a disaster,
Generate multiple scenarios of power consumption during emergencies.
Each scenario of a plurality of scenarios regarding power consumption in an emergency is referred to as an emergency scenario. Emergency scenario generating section 10B outputs the plurality of generated emergency scenarios to emergency simulation section 202 .

The emergency scenario is the period from when the target disaster occurs and the transition to operation based on the operation plan of the storage equipment in an emergency to the end of the disaster and the return to normal operation, equipment i (i = 1, ..., N). The duration of the emergency scenario is from several days to several weeks. In addition, if a disaster preparation period is set before the occurrence of a disaster such as a flood caused by heavy rain, the preparation period may be included in the period of the emergency scenario. If the frequency of occurrence of disasters differs depending on the type of disaster, the probability of occurrence of disasters in the emergency scenario is changed according to the frequency of occurrence of disasters.

<Step S4>
In step S4, the emergency simulation unit 20B calculates an emergency probability distribution, which is a probability distribution of costs in operation in an emergency, for the creation-storage equipment. Also, "emergency" indicates a period defined as an emergency. The emergency scenario generator 10B creates a plurality of emergency scenarios according to the definition of "emergency".
Then, as shown in FIG. 4, the emergency simulation unit 20B uses a plurality of emergency scenarios to generate an emergency probability distribution, which will be described later.

The emergency simulation unit 20B calculates an emergency probability distribution, which will be described later, based on a plurality of emergency scenarios, capacity information indicating the capacity of the creation-storage equipment, and an emergency operation plan for the creation-storage equipment. The emergency scenario is to generate an emergency probability distribution based on the time-series data of power consumption that indicates the operation performance of each demand facility of multiple demand facilities that receive power supply from the creation and storage facility when the creation and storage facility is introduced. This is the time-series data of the power consumption of each demand facility generated in Here, the demand facility is facility i.
A specific description will be given below.
The emergency simulation unit 20B
(1) (1) a plurality of emergency scenarios created in step S3;
(2) capacity information of the creation-saving equipment to be calculated acquired from the creation-storage equipment storage unit 42;
(3) the "emergency equipment operation plan" acquired from the emergency operation storage unit 43B;
(4) "Information about possible damages to the company due to the occurrence of a disaster" obtained from the emergency operation storage unit 43B;
, the probability distribution of the operation cost of the emergency storage facility is calculated. The emergency simulation unit 20B outputs the calculated probability distribution to the preprocessing unit 31. FIG.

Existing methods such as linear programming can be used to calculate the cost. The emergency simulation unit 20B uses linear programming for cost calculation. The emergency simulation unit 20B applies the linear programming method to all the emergency scenarios of power consumption acquired from the emergency scenario generation unit 10B, thereby calculating a plurality of operation costs of the generation/storage equipment in an emergency. As described above, the emergency simulation unit 20</b>B calculates the probability distribution of operating costs that occur during emergency operation of the creation-storage equipment from a plurality of calculated operating costs, and outputs the probability distribution to the preprocessing unit 31 . This probability distribution may be referred to as an emergency probability distribution.

Fig. 6 shows the probability distribution of the operating costs of the energy saving equipment in an emergency. The horizontal axis is a stochastic variable, which is the operation cost incurred in the operation of the creation-storage equipment in an emergency. Operating costs on the horizontal axis are discretized. The vertical axis indicates the probability density for discretized costs. FIG. 6 shows probability densities represented by bar graphs for discrete-valued random variables.

The processing of steps S1 and S2 and the processing of steps S3 and S4 may not be parallel.

<Step S5>
In step S5, the preprocessing unit 31 compares the normal probability distribution of the normal operation cost of the creation-storage equipment created in step S2 and the emergency probability distribution of the emergency operation cost of the creation-storage equipment created in step S4. , to align the granularity of the discrete values of the random variables. By this process of aligning the granularity, the two probability distributions are shaped into a form that can be synthesized. The preprocessing unit 31 outputs to the integration unit 32 the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution in which the granularity of the discrete values of the random variables is aligned.

Specifically, the preprocessing unit 31 aligns the granularity of the discrete values of the random variables of the normal probability distribution of the normal operation cost of the creation-storage equipment and the emergency probability distribution of the emergency operation cost of the creation-storage equipment. , so that the two probability distributions can be treated similarly.
In addition, the preprocessing unit 31 may adjust the occurrence probability of the emergency operation cost of the creation-storage equipment in consideration of the occurrence frequency of disasters to be calculated.
For example, it is assumed that the target period for the operation simulation of the creation-storage equipment during normal times in the normal simulation unit 20A is one year, and that a disaster occurs once every five years. In this case, the preprocessing unit 31 adjusts the probability of the emergency operation cost to 1/5. At this time, the preprocessing unit 31 adjusts the probability that the emergency operation cost becomes 0 to 4/5.
When discrete values of random variables of the normal probability distribution output from the normal simulation unit 20A and the emergency probability distribution output from the emergency simulation unit 20B are aligned, the preprocessing unit 31 performs processing to align the discrete values. You don't have to.

<Step S6>
In step S6, the integrating unit 32 synthesizes the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution in which the granularity of the random variables is aligned to generate a synthesized probability distribution.
The integration unit 32 synthesizes the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution. As a result, the integration unit 32 calculates a composite probability distribution that takes into consideration the normal operation of the creation-saving equipment and the emergency operation of the creation-saving equipment.
A specific description will be given below.
The integration unit 32 synthesizes the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution shaped in step S5 by calculating the convolution integral, and outputs the synthesized probability distribution as one probability distribution.
That is, the integration unit 32 synthesizes the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution acquired from the preprocessing unit 31 .
Then, the integration unit 32 calculates and outputs one probability distribution considering both the operation cost of the creation-storage equipment in normal times and the operation cost of the creation-storage equipment in an emergency. Existing techniques such as convolution integration can be used to combine the two probability distributions.
FIG. 7 shows a probability distribution obtained by synthesizing the probability distribution of costs during normal times and the probability distribution of operating costs during emergencies. The emergency operation cost, which is a random variable on the horizontal axis, is discretized. In FIG. 7, probability densities represented by bar graphs are shown for discrete values on the horizontal axis.

*** Effect of Embodiment 1 ***
As described above, the probability distribution of costs occurring in normal operation and the probability distribution of costs occurring in emergency operation are separately calculated, and the respective probability distributions are synthesized.
As a result, it is possible to calculate the probability distribution of costs in consideration of normal operation and emergency operation with a smaller amount of calculation than in the past.
A more specific description will be given. The reason why the calculation load is reduced by calculating the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution separately and combining the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution is as follows.
Conventionally, the following procedures (1) to (4) are performed when calculating a probability distribution that considers both normal and emergency operation of the creation-storage facility.
(1): Set the operation record and BCP information of facility i, and execute a simulation of power demand that occurs 365 days a year.
(2): Based on the simulation results of (1), by randomly changing the capacity of the storage facility and the occurrence of a disaster (emergency operation for several days), a simulation with different conditions is realized.
(3): Randomly change the condition of (2) and execute multiple times (1, 2, 3, . . . , M times).
(4): Change the condition of (1) and execute (1) to (3) multiple times (1, 2, 3, . . . , N times).
In this case, N×M simulations are required to finally calculate the probability distribution.
In the method of the first embodiment, the calculation of the normal probability distribution of costs occurring in normal operation ((1), (4)) and the calculation of the emergency probability distribution of costs occurring in emergency operation ((2 ) and (3)) are calculated separately and synthesized.
As a result, it is possible to calculate the probability distribution considering the operation of the creation-storage equipment both in normal times and in emergencies in N+M simulations. Therefore, the calculation load is reduced as compared with the conventional method.

Embodiment 2.
The information processing apparatus 100 according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 8 to 10. FIG. In the first embodiment, the cost probability distribution is calculated in consideration of normal operation and emergency operation for one creation-storage facility determined as a probability distribution calculation target. On the other hand, in the second embodiment, a system will be described in which one unit is selected from a plurality of creation-storage facilities and the same calculation processing as in the first embodiment is performed on the selected creation-storage facilities.

FIG. 8 shows functional blocks of the information processing apparatus 100 according to the second embodiment.
FIG. 9 shows the hardware configuration of the information processing device 100 according to the second embodiment. As shown in FIGS. 8 and 9, the information processing apparatus 100 of Embodiment 2 further includes, as a functional element, a creation-storage facility selection unit 50 that selects a creation-storage facility. The creation-storage facility selection unit 50 is a selection unit.

The creation-storage facility selection unit 50 selects the creation-storage facility for which the synthetic probability distribution is to be calculated from among the plurality of creation-storage facilities that can be installed in the target building.

<Creation/storage facility selection unit 50>
The creation-storage equipment selection unit 50 selects the creation-storage equipment for which the probability distribution is to be calculated from the creation-storage equipment storage unit 42 . The creation-storage facility storage unit 42 stores information such as specifications and prices of a plurality of creation-storage facilities as creation-storage facility information. This also applies to the first embodiment. The creation-storage equipment selection unit 50 outputs the selected creation-storage equipment to the normal scenario generation unit 10A and the emergency scenario generation unit 10B. The normal scenario generation unit 10A and the emergency scenario generation unit 10B can know the creation-storage equipment that is the target of the scenario to be generated.

The creation-saving equipment selection unit 50
(1) Actual power consumption of the entire building,
(2) Contents of the contract between the electric power company and the company,
(3) Constraints on where the creation and storage equipment can be installed in the building,
(4) the upper limit of the budget of decision makers for capital investment in creation and storage facilities;
Select a selectable creation and storage facility from the above.
The information of (1) is stored in the operation record storage unit 41 .
The information of (2) is stored in the normal operation storage section 43A.
The information of (3) is stored in the creation/storage equipment storage unit 42 .
The information (4) is stored in the creation/storage equipment storage unit 42 .

The other functional elements of the creation-storage equipment selection unit 50 are the same as those in the first embodiment, so descriptions thereof are omitted.

The operation of the information processing apparatus 100 according to the second embodiment will be described.
FIG. 10 is a flow chart showing the operation of the information processing apparatus 100 according to the second embodiment. Since steps S1 to S6 are the same as those in FIG. 3 of the first embodiment, description thereof is omitted.

<Step S11>
The creation-storage facility storage unit 42 stores information on creation-storage facilities that can be installed in a building.
In step S<b>11 , the creation-storage facility selection unit 50 acquires list information of a plurality of creation-storage facilities that can be installed in a building from the creation-storage facility storage unit 42 . The creation-storage facility selection unit 50 outputs one of the creation-storage facilities to the normal scenario generation unit 10A and the emergency scenario generation unit 10B.

The operation from step S1 to step S6 after step S11 is the same as in FIG. 3 of the first embodiment. That is, in the operations from step S1 to step S6, the probability distribution calculation process for the creation-storage equipment output in step S11 is executed.

<Step S12>
In step S12, the creation-saving equipment selection unit 50 determines whether the calculation of the probability distribution is completed for all the creation-saving equipment to be acquired. When the creation-saving equipment selection unit 50 determines that the probability distribution calculation has been completed for all the creation-storage equipment to be acquired (YES in step S12), the probability distribution created for all the creation-storage equipment to output When the creation-storage equipment selection unit 50 determines that the calculation of the probability distribution has not been completed for all the creation-storage equipment to be acquired (NO in step S12), the process returns to step S11, and the uncalculated creation-storage equipment Execute the calculation again for the facility.

*** Effect of Embodiment 2 ***
As described above, the information processing apparatus 100 calculates the probability distribution of costs in consideration of normal operation and emergency operation for all creation-storage facilities that can be installed in a building. Therefore, by referring to the respective probability distributions of the plurality of creation-saving facilities output in step S12, it is possible to select the creation-saving facilities that can be introduced from among the plurality of creation-saving facilities.

Embodiment 3.
As a third embodiment, the hardware configuration of the information processing apparatus 100 is supplemented.

<Supplementary hardware configuration>
In the information processing apparatus 100 of FIG. 2, the functions of the information processing apparatus 100 are realized by software. However, the functions of the information processing device 100 may be realized by hardware.
FIG. 11 shows a configuration in which the functions of the information processing apparatus 100 are realized by hardware. Electronic circuit 90 of FIG. It is a dedicated electronic circuit that realizes 50 functions. Electronic circuit 90 is connected to signal line 91 . Electronic circuit 90 is specifically a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, a logic IC, GA, ASIC, or FPGA. GA is an abbreviation for Gate Array. ASIC is an abbreviation for Application Specific Integrated Circuit. FPGA is an abbreviation for Field-Programmable Gate Array. The functions of the components of the information processing apparatus 100 may be realized by one electronic circuit, or may be distributed and realized by a plurality of electronic circuits. Also, some functions of the components of the information processing apparatus 100 may be implemented by electronic circuits, and the remaining functions may be implemented by software.

Each of the processor 110 and the electronic circuit 90 is also called processing circuitry or circuitry. In the information processing device 100, the functions of the normal scenario generation unit 10A, the emergency scenario generation unit 10B, the normal simulation unit 20A, the emergency simulation unit 20B, the preprocessing unit 31, the integration unit 32, and the creation-storage equipment selection unit 50 are realized by circuitry. may be

The operation of the information processing apparatus 100 has been described above in the first and second embodiments. Two of these embodiments may be combined for implementation. Alternatively, one technical matter among the plurality of technical matters included in one embodiment may be partially implemented. Alternatively, the technical matters included in each embodiment may be partially combined and implemented.

10A Normal scenario generation unit 10B Emergency scenario generation unit 20A Normal simulation unit 20B Emergency simulation unit 31 Preprocessing unit 32 Integration unit 40 Storage unit 41 Operation result storage unit 42 Creation and storage equipment storage unit 43A Normal Operation storage unit, 43B Emergency operation storage unit, 50 Creation and storage equipment selection unit, 90 Electronic circuit, 91 Signal line, 100 Information processing device, 101 Information processing program, 110 Processor, 120 Main storage device, 130 Auxiliary storage device, 140 Input Interface, 141 input device, 150 output interface, 151 output device, 160 communication interface, 161 communication device, 170 signal line.

Claims

The normal probability distribution, which is the probability distribution of costs in normal operation that indicates the period defined as normal, for the generation and storage equipment that is the subject of consideration whether or not to be introduced and that performs at least one of power generation and storage a normal simulation unit for calculating;
an emergency simulation unit that calculates an emergency probability distribution, which is a probability distribution of costs in operation in an emergency indicating a period defined as an emergency, for the creation-storage equipment;
Combining the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution, the combined probability is a probability distribution that takes into account the normal operation of the creation-storage equipment and the emergency operation of the creation-storage equipment. an integration unit that calculates the distribution;
Information processing device.
The normal simulation unit
To generate the normal probability distribution based on time-series data of power consumption indicating operation results of each demand facility of a plurality of demand facilities that receives power supply from the creation and storage facility when the creation and storage facility is introduced A normal scenario that is generated time-series data of the power consumption of each demand facility;
capacity information indicating the capacity of the creation-storage equipment;
an operation plan for the normal operation of the creation-storage equipment;
On the basis of the,
2. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein said normal probability distribution is calculated.
The information processing device further includes:
3. The information processing apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising a normal scenario generation unit that generates the normal scenario for each of the demand facilities.
The emergency simulation unit
To generate the emergency probability distribution based on time-series data of power consumption indicating operation results of each demand facility of a plurality of demand facilities that receive power supply from the energy creation and storage facility when the energy creation and storage facility is introduced The generated emergency scenario, which is time-series data of the power consumption of each demand facility;
capacity information indicating the capacity of the creation-storage equipment;
the emergency operation plan for the creation-storage equipment;
On the basis of the,
The information processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the emergency probability distribution is calculated.
The information processing device further includes:
A preprocessing unit that aligns the granularity of the random variables of the normal probability distribution and the random variables of the emergency probability distribution,
The integration unit
5. The information processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution in which the granularity of random variables are aligned are synthesized to generate the synthesized probability distribution.
The information processing device further includes:
6. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising a selection unit that selects the creation-storage equipment to be a target of calculation of the synthetic probability distribution from among a plurality of creation-storage equipment that can be installed in a target building. The information processing device described.
to the computer,
The normal probability distribution, which is the probability distribution of costs in normal operation that indicates the period defined as normal, for the generation and storage equipment that is the subject of consideration whether or not to be introduced and that performs at least one of power generation and storage Normal simulation processing to calculate,
An emergency simulation process for calculating an emergency probability distribution, which is a probability distribution of costs in operation in an emergency indicating a period defined as an emergency, for the creation-storage equipment;
Combining the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution, the combined probability is a probability distribution that takes into account the normal operation of the creation-storage equipment and the emergency operation of the creation-storage equipment. an integration process for calculating the distribution;
Information processing program that runs
The normal probability distribution, which is the probability distribution of costs in normal operation that indicates the period defined as normal, for the generation and storage equipment that is the subject of consideration whether or not to be introduced and that performs at least one of power generation and storage calculate,
Calculate an emergency probability distribution that is a probability distribution of costs in operation in an emergency indicating a period defined as an emergency for the creation and storage equipment,
Combining the normal probability distribution and the emergency probability distribution, the combined probability is a probability distribution that takes into account the normal operation of the creation-storage equipment and the emergency operation of the creation-storage equipment. An information processing method for calculating a distribution.