WO2023142424A1 - Power financial service risk control method and system based on gru-lstm neural network - Google Patents
Power financial service risk control method and system based on gru-lstm neural network Download PDFInfo
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Definitions
- the invention belongs to the technical field of data analysis, relates to risk analysis of financial business, and is a method and system for risk control of electric power financial business based on GRU-LSTM neural network.
- Deep learning technology is the process of digging out potential and valuable information from massive raw data. It is a data processing technology. It can be known from its definition: raw data must be real, objective and noisy, and finally mining The information and knowledge that come out are interesting, acceptable and easy to understand for users, and can also be used in real life.
- an effective analysis tool or algorithm is selected, and after being decomposed into a multivariate data set, an in-depth mining analysis is performed to provide users with potentially valuable information and knowledge. How to apply deep learning technology to power financial business and improve the ability to analyze business data is a problem to be solved.
- the purpose of the present invention is to aim at the risk control problem of financial business, analyze the data through deep learning technology, combine the advantages of short prediction time of GRU and high prediction accuracy of LSTM, combine the two, thus propose a neural network based on GRU-LSTM Effectively control the risk control system of the electric power financial business.
- the technical solution of the present invention is: based on the GRU-LSTM neural network risk control method for electric power financial business, data analysis is performed on the historical data of electric power financial business through deep learning, the risk factors of electric power financial business are obtained, and the risk early warning index system is established according to the risk factors , build a risk early warning model;
- deep learning is GRU-LSTM network combination prediction: first analyze the financial business data through the GRU network, and then input the LSTM neural network, use the LSTM neural network to simulate risk control and predict risk factors, according to Risk early warning indicators determine the corresponding risk level; use historical data to train the GRU-LSTM network to obtain a risk early warning model, use the risk early warning model to predict the risk level of real-time financial business data, and realize financial business risk control.
- the present invention comprises the following steps:
- Step 1 data collection: by monitoring the financial business data, recording the financial data, and collecting the required target financial business historical data from the relevant financial project business according to the financial business risk to be analyzed by deep learning, and training the GRU network for data analysis;
- Step 2 comprehensive analysis, risk assessment: According to the data analyzed by GRU, the LSTM neural network is used to simulate risk control, and the LSTM neural network is trained to predict and judge the risk factors and risk levels corresponding to financial data through historical data;
- Step 3 real-time detection, risk prevention and control: real-time monitoring of financial business data, input into the trained GRU-LSTM network, output predicted risk factors and risk levels, and realize financial business risk control.
- the electric power financial business is collected, and information is randomly extracted from the financial database, business database and human database.
- the present invention also proposes a wind control system for electric power financial business based on GRU-LSTM neural network, which has a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is configured in the computer-readable storage medium, and the above-mentioned risk early warning model is realized when the computer program is executed .
- the invention can assist the power company to monitor some financial business risk problems when entering the financial market, effectively carry out risk control, and make reasonable business allocation decisions.
- the method of the present invention uses deep learning technology to learn and analyze complex financial problem data, and analyzes related business information to analyze the relationship between business and problem data, which is conducive to avoiding risks and helping to improve decision-making management capabilities.
- the GRU network structure is simple so that the parameters are easier to converge, greatly reducing the training time, but the accuracy of GRU is not as good as LSTM, and then through LSTM, the prediction accuracy is greatly improved.
- the proposed GRU -LSTM combination forecasting can be applied to the risk analysis of power financial business, explore data processing and solutions, and provide a practical method for the prevention of financial risks.
- Fig. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of the wind control system for electric power financial business of the present invention.
- Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of the deep learning process of the present invention.
- Fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart of the LSTM neural network prediction model adopted in the present invention.
- the present invention aims at the financial business risks faced by current electric power companies when they go deep into the financial market, combines deep learning technology to carry out risk control, takes the application of deep learning technology in financial business as the core, and conducts in-depth research on complex financial models, thereby helping The extension of power finance business.
- Use deep learning technology to analyze relevant business information, analyze the stakes, improve internal decision-making management, and provide a scientific and powerful foundation for the efficient development of power financial business by mining valuable data.
- the theoretical basis of the risk control system of the present invention includes absolute income theory and life cycle theory, etc., which are mainly used to help judge the risk of the electric power financial business, assist the company in making decisions, and when the revenue reaches the maximum value, it is the optimal business performance. Selection enables reasonable allocation of business and provides directions for finding potential benefits.
- the present invention proposes a power financial business risk control system based on the GRU-LSTM neural network.
- GRU-LSTM neural network As shown in Figure 1, it is first necessary to randomly extract information from the financial database, business database, and human database, and obtain relevant financial and financial information through the business database.
- Manpower information, etc., data processing using the advantages of short prediction time of GRU and high precision of LSTM, the combination of the two is the most appropriate for processing.
- the simple network structure of GRU makes the parameters easier to converge, greatly reducing the training time.
- the accuracy of GRU is not as good as that of LSTM.
- After LSTM the prediction accuracy is greatly improved.
- the processed data can be stored and continue to provide the basis for future training. Diagnose the problem after processing the data, and judge the output results.
- a first-level alarm will be issued and specific abnormal data will be reported; if 3 or 4 parameters are abnormal, then Issue a second-level alarm and report specific abnormal data; if 5 or more parameters are abnormal, issue a third-level alarm and report specific abnormal data.
- the computer performs two or more simulations to ensure that there will be no second data abnormality, and to a certain extent achieve the effect of risk control.
- the process of deep learning of power financial business data by the power financial business risk control system based on GRU-LSTM neural network is shown in Figure 2.
- Data collection is collected from financial business, and risk feature description is obtained through data mining.
- Financial business defines risk, combines risk definition with risk characteristic description, and comprehensively determines actual risk factors.
- the present invention realizes following steps:
- Step 1 data collection: through the data monitoring of financial business, record the financial data, and according to the theory of deep learning, collect the required target financial data from the relevant financial project business, so as to understand it more accurately, Master and use the financial operation rules to prevent and control risks and crises, making the collected data more accurate and effective.
- the present invention first needs to randomly extract information from the financial database, business database, and manpower database, and obtain relevant financial and manpower information through the business database, and perform data processing on it.
- the GRU network is first trained for data analysis.
- Step 2 comprehensive analysis, risk assessment: According to the data analyzed by GRU, the LSTM neural network is used to simulate risk control, and the LSTM neural network is trained to predict and judge the risk factors and risk levels corresponding to financial data through historical data;
- Step 3 real-time detection, risk prevention and control: real-time monitoring of financial business data, input into the trained GRU-LSTM network, output predicted risk factors and risk levels, and realize financial business risk control.
- the data that has been analyzed and processed by the deep learning of the GRU network is put into the LSTM neural network for simulation analysis, the risk level is divided, and the final risk level is judged according to the simulation analysis results, providing managers with scientific and effective judgment basis, so as to advance Risk avoidance, some preventive suggestions for the assessment and control of power financial business risks, and has certain reliability.
- FIG. 3 it is a schematic flow chart of the LSTM predictive analysis of the present invention.
- an index that reflects financial risks such as time, number of people, progress, finance, etc.
- the number of nodes is 12, and the data needs to be normalized before inputting parameters to become a standard value between 0 and 1.
- the normalization equation is as follows:
- x max and x min are the maximum and minimum values of the input sample parameters respectively
- x t and x′ t are the real initial input sample parameters and normalized processing results respectively.
- n the number of indicators, that is, the input parameters
- n the number of indicators, that is, the input parameters
- the number of neurons contained in the hidden layer is assumed to be a j
- the weight from the input layer to the hidden layer is w i
- the number of neurons contained in the hidden layer is j
- the transfer function in the risk prediction model is as follows:
- the input unit ⁇ i of the hidden layer can be described as:
- the data After calculation and screening, the data reaches the output layer, and the input item s t and output item ⁇ t of the neurons in the output layer are respectively:
- v jt is the weight from the hidden layer to the output layer
- ⁇ t is the threshold of the output layer.
- 12 parameters are input, including time, number of people, workload, progress, etc., and judged by the results output by the model. If one or two parameters are abnormal, a first-level alarm will be issued, and the specific Abnormal data; if 3 or 4 parameters are abnormal, a second-level alarm will be issued, and specific abnormal data will be reported; if 5 or more parameters are abnormal, a third-level alarm will be issued, specific abnormal data will be reported, and the administrator Perform a second simulation after modifying the business data, so as to ensure that the business data will not have a second abnormality.
- the present invention proposes a power financial business risk control system based on GRU-LSTM neural network, which has a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is configured in the computer-readable storage medium.
- the computer program is executed, the above-mentioned risk warning model.
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Abstract
A power financial service risk control method and system based on a GRU-LSTM neural network. Data analysis is performed on past data of power financial service by means of deep learning to obtain a risk factor of the power financial service, a risk early warning index system is established according to the risk factor, and a risk early warning model is constructed, wherein deep learning relates to GRU-LSTM combined prediction: analyzing financial service data by means of a GRU network and then putting the financial service data into an LSTM network for simulation analysis. According to the method of the present invention, the deep learning technology is used to learn and analyze complex financial issue data, related service information is analyzed, and the association between service and issue data is analyzed, thereby facilitating avoiding the risk and facilitating improving the decision management capability.
Description
本发明属于数据分析技术领域,涉及金融业务的风险分析,为一种基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控方法及系统。The invention belongs to the technical field of data analysis, relates to risk analysis of financial business, and is a method and system for risk control of electric power financial business based on GRU-LSTM neural network.
随着经济水平不断提高,金融业务量急速增长,金融市场规模会越来越大,潜力巨大,但同时也会带来金融风险,如何进行风险控制是当前备受瞩目的问题。With the continuous improvement of the economic level and the rapid growth of financial business volume, the scale of the financial market will become larger and larger, with great potential, but at the same time it will also bring financial risks. How to control risks is a current concern.
电力金融业务的发展与数据管理息息相关,随着不断市场化、信息化与数字化建设,大量数据涌入金融业务,需要从中挖掘出有价值的信息,对其复杂的形式进行深入探讨,从而帮助用户分析其中利弊,推进电力金融业务全面升级。The development of power financial business is closely related to data management. With the continuous marketization, informatization and digitalization construction, a large amount of data is pouring into the financial business. It is necessary to dig out valuable information from it and conduct in-depth discussions on its complex forms, so as to help users Analyze the pros and cons, and promote the overall upgrade of the power financial business.
金融业务的数据与业务资源类型复杂且海量,虽然可以通过一些规则进行整理归纳,但仍需管理者通过主观分析判断,所做出的决策往往具有一定的局限性,从而无法准确有效地处理金融业务风险。近几年随着计算机人工智能技术的发展,利用机器学习辅助处理金融业务风险越来越常见。深度学习技术是从海量的原始数据中挖掘出潜在、有价值的信息的过程,它是一种数据处理技术,通过其定义可以得知:原始数据必须是真实、客观且有噪声的,最后挖掘出来的信息和知识是用户感兴趣、可接受、易理解的,也能够在现实生活中运用的。收集过来的数据进行处理后选择有效的分析工具或者算法,分解为多元数据集之后,进行深入挖掘分析,从而为用户提供潜在的有价值的信息与知识。如何将深度学习技术应用到电力金融业务中,提高对业务数据的分析能力,是一个函待解决的问题。The types of financial business data and business resources are complex and massive. Although they can be sorted and summarized through some rules, managers still need to make subjective analysis and judgments. The decisions made often have certain limitations, so that it is impossible to accurately and effectively handle financial services. business risk. In recent years, with the development of computer artificial intelligence technology, it has become more and more common to use machine learning to assist in handling financial business risks. Deep learning technology is the process of digging out potential and valuable information from massive raw data. It is a data processing technology. It can be known from its definition: raw data must be real, objective and noisy, and finally mining The information and knowledge that come out are interesting, acceptable and easy to understand for users, and can also be used in real life. After the collected data is processed, an effective analysis tool or algorithm is selected, and after being decomposed into a multivariate data set, an in-depth mining analysis is performed to provide users with potentially valuable information and knowledge. How to apply deep learning technology to power financial business and improve the ability to analyze business data is a problem to be solved.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明的目的是针对金融业务的风控问题,通过深度学习技术对数据进行分析,结合GRU预测时间短与LSTM预测精度高的优点,两者相结合,从而提出一种基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控系统进行有效控制。The purpose of the present invention is to aim at the risk control problem of financial business, analyze the data through deep learning technology, combine the advantages of short prediction time of GRU and high prediction accuracy of LSTM, combine the two, thus propose a neural network based on GRU-LSTM Effectively control the risk control system of the electric power financial business.
本发明的技术方案为:基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控方法,通过深度学习对电力金融业务历史数据进行数据分析,得到电力金融业务的风险因素,根据风险因素建立风险预警指标体系,构建得到风险预警模型;其中深度学习为GRU-LSTM网络组合预测:先将金融业务数据通过GRU网络进行分析,再输入LSTM神经网络,利用LSTM神经网络对风 险控制进行模拟,预测风险因素,根据风险预警指标判断其对应的风险等级;利用历史数据训练GRU-LSTM网络得到风险预警模型,利用风险预警模型对实时金融业务数据进行风险等级预测,实现金融业务风控。The technical solution of the present invention is: based on the GRU-LSTM neural network risk control method for electric power financial business, data analysis is performed on the historical data of electric power financial business through deep learning, the risk factors of electric power financial business are obtained, and the risk early warning index system is established according to the risk factors , build a risk early warning model; where deep learning is GRU-LSTM network combination prediction: first analyze the financial business data through the GRU network, and then input the LSTM neural network, use the LSTM neural network to simulate risk control and predict risk factors, according to Risk early warning indicators determine the corresponding risk level; use historical data to train the GRU-LSTM network to obtain a risk early warning model, use the risk early warning model to predict the risk level of real-time financial business data, and realize financial business risk control.
作为优选方式,本发明包括以下步骤:As a preferred mode, the present invention comprises the following steps:
步骤一,数据收集:通过对金融业务的数据进行监测,记录其中的金融数据,根据深度学习所要分析的金融业务风险,从相关的金融项目业务中搜集出所需要的目标金融业务历史数据,训练GRU网络进行数据分析;Step 1, data collection: by monitoring the financial business data, recording the financial data, and collecting the required target financial business historical data from the relevant financial project business according to the financial business risk to be analyzed by deep learning, and training the GRU network for data analysis;
步骤二,综合分析,风险评定:根据GRU分析的数据,利用LSTM神经网络对风险控制进行模拟,通过历史数据训练LSTM神经网络预测判断金融数据所对应的风险因素及风险等级;Step 2, comprehensive analysis, risk assessment: According to the data analyzed by GRU, the LSTM neural network is used to simulate risk control, and the LSTM neural network is trained to predict and judge the risk factors and risk levels corresponding to financial data through historical data;
步骤三,实时检测,风险防控:实时监测金融业务数据,输入训练好的GRU-LSTM网络,输出预测的风险因素及风险等级,实现金融业务风控。Step 3, real-time detection, risk prevention and control: real-time monitoring of financial business data, input into the trained GRU-LSTM network, output predicted risk factors and risk levels, and realize financial business risk control.
进一步的,采集电力金融业务,对财务数据库、业务数据库和人力数据库进行随机抽取信息。Further, the electric power financial business is collected, and information is randomly extracted from the financial database, business database and human database.
本发明还提出基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控系统,其具有计算机可读存储介质,计算机可读存储介质中配置有计算机程序,所述计算机程序被执行时实现上述的风险预警模型。The present invention also proposes a wind control system for electric power financial business based on GRU-LSTM neural network, which has a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is configured in the computer-readable storage medium, and the above-mentioned risk early warning model is realized when the computer program is executed .
本发明能够协助电力公司在进入金融市场时监控一些金融业务风险问题,有效地进行风险控制,对业务进行合理分配决策。本发明方法利用深度学习技术对复杂的金融问题数据进行学习分析,并对相关的业务信息进行分析,剖析业务与问题数据之间的关联,有利于规避风险,帮助提升决策管理能力。The invention can assist the power company to monitor some financial business risk problems when entering the financial market, effectively carry out risk control, and make reasonable business allocation decisions. The method of the present invention uses deep learning technology to learn and analyze complex financial problem data, and analyzes related business information to analyze the relationship between business and problem data, which is conducive to avoiding risks and helping to improve decision-making management capabilities.
本发明具有以下优点:The present invention has the following advantages:
1、由于金融数据的类型多样、数量大、关系复杂、动态波动等特点,并且多是大量样本、高维度的数据,利用GRU预测时间短与LSTM精度高的优点,两者相结合对其进行处理最为妥当,GRU网络结构简单从而使得参数更容易收敛,大大减少了训练时间,但是GRU精度不如LSTM,再经过LSTM,使得预测精度大大提高,考虑到预测精度与预测速度相结合,提出的GRU-LSTM组合预测,可以将其应用于电力金融业务的风险分析,探索数据处理和解决方法,为金融风险的预防提供了切实可行的方法。1. Due to the characteristics of various types of financial data, large quantities, complex relationships, dynamic fluctuations, etc., and most of them are data with a large number of samples and high dimensions, using the advantages of short prediction time of GRU and high precision of LSTM, the combination of the two is carried out. The most appropriate treatment, the GRU network structure is simple so that the parameters are easier to converge, greatly reducing the training time, but the accuracy of GRU is not as good as LSTM, and then through LSTM, the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. Considering the combination of prediction accuracy and prediction speed, the proposed GRU -LSTM combination forecasting can be applied to the risk analysis of power financial business, explore data processing and solutions, and provide a practical method for the prevention of financial risks.
2、风险判断可靠。通过深度学习分析每个数据,并且从大量的数据中寻找潜在的规律,因此具有一定的可靠性,将搜集的数据进行处理后,对电力金融业务风险评估提供了可靠的基 础,并且随着数据量的不断增加,其中挖掘的有价值的信息也会逐渐增加,最终结果也会越来越准确。2. Reliable risk judgment. Analyze each data through deep learning, and look for potential laws from a large amount of data, so it has certain reliability. After processing the collected data, it provides a reliable basis for the risk assessment of power financial business, and with the data As the amount of data continues to increase, the valuable information mined will gradually increase, and the final results will become more and more accurate.
3、风险控制及时。通过深度学习处理数据的反馈,管理者可以快速准确的定位电力金融业务风险的要素,并且根据其要素分析其中的问题所在,并可通过风险预警模型对调整的业务进行模拟预测,验证决策的有效性及可靠性,从而在最短的时间内帮助管理者做出有效的决策,大大降低了可能面临金融业务的风险。3. Timely risk control. Through the feedback of deep learning processing data, managers can quickly and accurately locate the elements of power financial business risk, and analyze the problems according to the elements, and can simulate and predict the adjusted business through the risk early warning model to verify the effectiveness of decision-making Sexuality and reliability, so as to help managers make effective decisions in the shortest possible time, greatly reducing the possible risks of financial business.
图1为本发明电力金融业务风控系统的结构示意图。Fig. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of the wind control system for electric power financial business of the present invention.
图2为本发明的深度学习流程示意图。Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of the deep learning process of the present invention.
图3为本发明采用的LSTM神经网络预测模型的流程示意图。Fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart of the LSTM neural network prediction model adopted in the present invention.
本发明针对当前电力公司深入金融市场所面临的金融业务风险,结合深度学习技术对其进行风险控制,以深度学习技术在金融业务的应用为核心,对形式复杂的金融模式进行深入研究,从而帮助电力金融业务的延拓。利用深度学习技术分析相关业务信息,剖析其中利害关系,提升内部决策管理,并通过挖掘其中有价值的数据,为电力金融业务高效发展提供科学有力的基础。The present invention aims at the financial business risks faced by current electric power companies when they go deep into the financial market, combines deep learning technology to carry out risk control, takes the application of deep learning technology in financial business as the core, and conducts in-depth research on complex financial models, thereby helping The extension of power finance business. Use deep learning technology to analyze relevant business information, analyze the stakes, improve internal decision-making management, and provide a scientific and powerful foundation for the efficient development of power financial business by mining valuable data.
本发明风控系统的理论基础包括绝对收入理论与生命周期理论等,主要用于帮助评判该电力金融业务的风险,辅助公司进行决策,在收益达到最大值时,则是业务发挥效用的最优选择,使得业务进行合理配置,为寻找潜在的效益提供方向。The theoretical basis of the risk control system of the present invention includes absolute income theory and life cycle theory, etc., which are mainly used to help judge the risk of the electric power financial business, assist the company in making decisions, and when the revenue reaches the maximum value, it is the optimal business performance. Selection enables reasonable allocation of business and provides directions for finding potential benefits.
本发明提出一种基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控系统,通如图1所示,首先需要对财务数据库、业务数据库、人力数据库进行随机抽取信息,通过业务数据库获得相关的财务与人力信息等,对其进行数据处理,利用GRU预测时间短与LSTM精度高的优点,两者相结合对其进行处理最为妥当,GRU网络结构简单从而使得参数更容易收敛,大大减少了训练时间,但是GRU精度不如LSTM,再经过LSTM,使得预测精度大大提高,经过处理后的数据可以存放起来,继续为以后的训练提供基础。将数据通过处理后进行问题诊断,对所输出的结果进行判断,若有1个或2个参数异常,则发出一级警报,并报告具体异常数据;若有3个或4个参数异常,则发出二级警报,并报告具体异常数据;若有5个及5个以上参数异常,则发出三级警报,报告具体异常数据。管理者修改电力金融业务数据后计算机进行二次或者多次模拟,从而确保不会出现第二次数据异常,从一定程度上达到风险控制的效果。The present invention proposes a power financial business risk control system based on the GRU-LSTM neural network. As shown in Figure 1, it is first necessary to randomly extract information from the financial database, business database, and human database, and obtain relevant financial and financial information through the business database. Manpower information, etc., data processing, using the advantages of short prediction time of GRU and high precision of LSTM, the combination of the two is the most appropriate for processing. The simple network structure of GRU makes the parameters easier to converge, greatly reducing the training time. However, the accuracy of GRU is not as good as that of LSTM. After LSTM, the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. The processed data can be stored and continue to provide the basis for future training. Diagnose the problem after processing the data, and judge the output results. If 1 or 2 parameters are abnormal, a first-level alarm will be issued and specific abnormal data will be reported; if 3 or 4 parameters are abnormal, then Issue a second-level alarm and report specific abnormal data; if 5 or more parameters are abnormal, issue a third-level alarm and report specific abnormal data. After the manager modifies the power financial business data, the computer performs two or more simulations to ensure that there will be no second data abnormality, and to a certain extent achieve the effect of risk control.
所述基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控系统对电力金融业务数据进行深度学习的流程如图2所示,从金融业务中采集数据集合,通过数据挖掘得到风险特征描述,同时结合具体金融业务对风险进行定义,将风险定义和风险特征描述结合,综合确定实际风险因素。本发明实现以下步骤:The process of deep learning of power financial business data by the power financial business risk control system based on GRU-LSTM neural network is shown in Figure 2. Data collection is collected from financial business, and risk feature description is obtained through data mining. Financial business defines risk, combines risk definition with risk characteristic description, and comprehensively determines actual risk factors. The present invention realizes following steps:
步骤一,数据收集:通过对金融业务的数据监测,记录其中的金融数据,并且根据深度学习的理论,从相关的金融项目业务中搜集出所需要的目标金融数据,从而对其更加准确的认识、掌握,并且利用其中的金融运作规律,去防控风险危机,使得搜集的数据更加准确有效。本发明首先需要对财务数据库、业务数据库、人力数据库进行随机抽取信息,通过业务数据库获得相关的财务与人力信息等,对其进行数据处理,利用GRU预测时间短与LSTM精度高的优点,两者相结合对其进行处理,首先训练GRU网络进行数据分析。Step 1, data collection: through the data monitoring of financial business, record the financial data, and according to the theory of deep learning, collect the required target financial data from the relevant financial project business, so as to understand it more accurately, Master and use the financial operation rules to prevent and control risks and crises, making the collected data more accurate and effective. The present invention first needs to randomly extract information from the financial database, business database, and manpower database, and obtain relevant financial and manpower information through the business database, and perform data processing on it. By utilizing the advantages of short prediction time of GRU and high precision of LSTM, both Combined to process it, the GRU network is first trained for data analysis.
步骤二,综合分析,风险评定:根据GRU分析的数据,利用LSTM神经网络对风险控制进行模拟,通过历史数据训练LSTM神经网络预测判断金融数据所对应的风险因素及风险等级;Step 2, comprehensive analysis, risk assessment: According to the data analyzed by GRU, the LSTM neural network is used to simulate risk control, and the LSTM neural network is trained to predict and judge the risk factors and risk levels corresponding to financial data through historical data;
步骤三,实时检测,风险防控:实时监测金融业务数据,输入训练好的GRU-LSTM网络,输出预测的风险因素及风险等级,实现金融业务风控。Step 3, real-time detection, risk prevention and control: real-time monitoring of financial business data, input into the trained GRU-LSTM network, output predicted risk factors and risk levels, and realize financial business risk control.
经过GRU网络深度学习分析处理过的数据,放入LSTM神经网络中进行模拟分析,将风险等级进行划分,根据模拟分析结果判断最终的风险等级,为管理者提供科学的有效的判断依据,从而提前对其进行风险规避,为电力金融业务风险的评估和管控一些预防性的建议,且具有一定的可靠性。The data that has been analyzed and processed by the deep learning of the GRU network is put into the LSTM neural network for simulation analysis, the risk level is divided, and the final risk level is judged according to the simulation analysis results, providing managers with scientific and effective judgment basis, so as to advance Risk avoidance, some preventive suggestions for the assessment and control of power financial business risks, and has certain reliability.
如图3所示,为本发明LSTM预测分析的流程示意图,通过运用LSTM神经网络,向网络中输入体现金融风险的指数,例如时间、人数、进度、财务等,假设这里包含12个参数,输入节点数为12,在输入参数前需要对数据进行归一化处理,变为0到1之间的标准值,归一化方程如下:As shown in Figure 3, it is a schematic flow chart of the LSTM predictive analysis of the present invention. By using the LSTM neural network, an index that reflects financial risks, such as time, number of people, progress, finance, etc., is input into the network. Assuming that 12 parameters are included here, input The number of nodes is 12, and the data needs to be normalized before inputting parameters to become a standard value between 0 and 1. The normalization equation is as follows:
x′
t=(x
t-x
min)/(x
max-x
min) (1)
x′ t = (x t -x min )/(x max -x min ) (1)
其中x
max与x
min分别是输入样本参数中的最大值与最小值,x
t与x′
t则分别是真实的初始输入样本参数以及归一化处理结果。
Among them, x max and x min are the maximum and minimum values of the input sample parameters respectively, and x t and x′ t are the real initial input sample parameters and normalized processing results respectively.
对于LSTM神经网络,假定网络的预期输出结果为X
k,真实的输出结果是
那么预期的误差e等于
误平方和SSE可以用下述等式表示:
For the LSTM neural network, assuming that the expected output of the network is X k , the actual output is Then the expected error e is equal to The sum of squared errors SSE can be expressed by the following equation:
LSTM训练时,直至网络在限定的误差区间上收敛表示训练完成,反之则代表网络训练失败,同时需要调整网络的初始权重乃至整个网络的拓扑结构,直到获得理想的输出结果。During LSTM training, until the network converges on the limited error interval, it means that the training is completed, otherwise it means that the network training fails. At the same time, it is necessary to adjust the initial weight of the network and even the topology of the entire network until the ideal output result is obtained.
对于本发明风险防控方案,在GRU-LSTM神经网络中,设输入LSTM神经网络的风险指标向量集合为X
k(k=1,2...n),n为指标数量,即输入的参数个数,设隐含层中包含的各个神经元输入为a
j,输入层到隐含层的权值为w
i,隐含层中包含的神经元的数量为j,则公式如下:
For the risk prevention and control scheme of the present invention, in the GRU-LSTM neural network, set the risk index vector set input to the LSTM neural network as X k (k=1,2...n), n is the number of indicators, that is, the input parameters The number of neurons contained in the hidden layer is assumed to be a j , the weight from the input layer to the hidden layer is w i , and the number of neurons contained in the hidden layer is j, then the formula is as follows:
风险预测模型中的传递函数如下:The transfer function in the risk prediction model is as follows:
此时隐含层的输入单元λ
i可以描述为:
At this time, the input unit λ i of the hidden layer can be described as:
经过运算筛选处理后,数据达到输出层,输出层神经元的输入项s
t与输出项η
t分别为:
After calculation and screening, the data reaches the output layer, and the input item s t and output item η t of the neurons in the output layer are respectively:
其中v
jt是隐含层到输出层的权值,ξ
t是输出层的阈值。通过LSTM神经网络,由输入的n指标参数得到t个预测输出,对输出的预测结果进行判断,根据结果的异常数量,即存在的风险因素数量,根据风险预警指标判断其对应的风险等级。
where v jt is the weight from the hidden layer to the output layer, and ξ t is the threshold of the output layer. Through the LSTM neural network, t prediction outputs are obtained from the input n index parameters, and the output prediction results are judged. According to the abnormal number of results, that is, the number of existing risk factors, the corresponding risk level is judged according to the risk warning indicators.
在本实施例中,输入12个参数,包含时间、人数、工作量、进度等,通过模型所输出的结果进行判断,若有1个或2个参数异常,则发出一级警报,并报告具体异常数据;若有3个或4个参数异常,则发出二级警报,并报告具体异常数据;若有5个及5个以上参数异常,则发出三级警报,报告具体异常数据,且管理者修改业务数据后进行二次模拟,从而保证业务数据不会出现第二次异常。In this embodiment, 12 parameters are input, including time, number of people, workload, progress, etc., and judged by the results output by the model. If one or two parameters are abnormal, a first-level alarm will be issued, and the specific Abnormal data; if 3 or 4 parameters are abnormal, a second-level alarm will be issued, and specific abnormal data will be reported; if 5 or more parameters are abnormal, a third-level alarm will be issued, specific abnormal data will be reported, and the administrator Perform a second simulation after modifying the business data, so as to ensure that the business data will not have a second abnormality.
作为上述方法的载体,本发明提出基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控系统,具有计算机可读存储介质,计算机可读存储介质中配置有计算机程序,所述计算机程序被执行时实现上述的风险预警模型。As the carrier of the above method, the present invention proposes a power financial business risk control system based on GRU-LSTM neural network, which has a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is configured in the computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed, the above-mentioned risk warning model.
Claims (7)
- 基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控方法,其特征是通过深度学习对电力金融业务历史数据进行数据分析,得到电力金融业务的风险因素,根据风险因素建立风险预警指标体系,构建得到风险预警模型;其中深度学习为GRU-LSTM网络组合预测:先将金融业务数据通过GRU网络进行分析,再输入LSTM神经网络,利用LSTM神经网络对风险控制进行模拟,预测风险因素,根据风险预警指标判断其对应的风险等级;利用历史数据训练GRU-LSTM网络得到风险预警模型,利用风险预警模型对实时金融业务数据进行风险等级预测,实现金融业务风控。The power financial business risk control method based on the GRU-LSTM neural network is characterized by analyzing the historical data of the power financial business through deep learning to obtain the risk factors of the power financial business, establishing a risk early warning index system according to the risk factors, and constructing the risk Early warning model; in which deep learning is the combination prediction of GRU-LSTM network: first analyze the financial business data through the GRU network, then input the LSTM neural network, use the LSTM neural network to simulate risk control, predict risk factors, and judge according to risk early warning indicators Its corresponding risk level; use historical data to train the GRU-LSTM network to obtain a risk early warning model, use the risk early warning model to predict the risk level of real-time financial business data, and realize financial business risk control.
- 根据权利要求1所述的基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控方法,其特征是包括以下步骤:The electric power financial business wind control method based on GRU-LSTM neural network according to claim 1, it is characterized in that comprising the following steps:步骤一,数据收集:通过对金融业务的数据进行监测,记录其中的金融数据,根据深度学习所要分析的金融业务风险,从相关的金融项目业务中搜集出所需要的目标金融业务历史数据,训练GRU网络进行数据分析;Step 1, data collection: by monitoring the financial business data, recording the financial data, and collecting the required target financial business historical data from the relevant financial project business according to the financial business risk to be analyzed by deep learning, and training the GRU network for data analysis;步骤二,综合分析,风险评定:根据GRU分析的数据,利用LSTM神经网络对风险控制进行模拟,通过历史数据训练LSTM神经网络预测判断金融数据所对应的风险因素及风险等级;Step 2, comprehensive analysis, risk assessment: According to the data analyzed by GRU, the LSTM neural network is used to simulate risk control, and the LSTM neural network is trained to predict and judge the risk factors and risk levels corresponding to financial data through historical data;步骤三,实时检测,风险防控:实时监测金融业务数据,输入训练好的GRU-LSTM网络,输出预测的风险因素及风险等级,实现金融业务风控。Step 3, real-time detection, risk prevention and control: real-time monitoring of financial business data, input into the trained GRU-LSTM network, output predicted risk factors and risk levels, and realize financial business risk control.
- 根据权利要求1或2所述的基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控方法,其特征是采集电力金融业务历史数据,包括对财务数据库、业务数据库和人力数据库进行随机信息抽取。According to claim 1 or 2, the GRU-LSTM neural network-based power financial business risk control method is characterized by collecting historical data of power financial business, including random information extraction from financial database, business database and human database.
- 根据权利要求1或2所述的基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控方法,其特征是LSTM神经网络的具体实现为:向LSTM神经网络输入金融数据,所述金融数据为体现金融风险的指标参数,设包含n个参数,则输入节点数为n,在输入参数前需要对数据进行归一化处理,变为0到1之间的标准值,归一化方程如下:According to claim 1 or 2, the wind control method of electric power financial business based on GRU-LSTM neural network is characterized in that the specific realization of LSTM neural network is: input financial data to LSTM neural network, and said financial data is to reflect financial risk The index parameters of , if n parameters are included, then the number of input nodes is n, and the data needs to be normalized before inputting parameters to become a standard value between 0 and 1. The normalization equation is as follows:x′ t=(x t-x min)/(x max-x min) (1) x′ t = (x t -x min )/(x max -x min ) (1)其中x max与x min分别是输入样本参数中的最大值与最小值,x t与x′ t则分别是真实的初始输入样本参数以及归一化处理结果; Among them, x max and x min are the maximum and minimum values of the input sample parameters respectively, and x t and x′ t are the real initial input sample parameters and normalized processing results respectively;通过历史数据训练LSTM神经网络,直至在限定的误差区间上收敛,反之则代表网络训练失败,同时调整神经网络的初始权重及整个网络的拓扑结构,直到获得理想的输出结果;Train the LSTM neural network through historical data until it converges on the limited error interval, otherwise it means that the network training fails, and at the same time adjust the initial weight of the neural network and the topology of the entire network until the ideal output result is obtained;设输入的风险指标向量集合为X k,k=1,2...n,隐含层中包含的神经元的数量为j,隐含层中包含的各个神经元输入为a j,输入层到隐含层的权值为w ij,则: Let the input risk indicator vector set be X k , k=1,2...n, the number of neurons contained in the hidden layer is j, the input of each neuron contained in the hidden layer is a j , the input layer The weight to the hidden layer is w ij , then:b j是隐含层的阈值,风险预测模型中的传递函数如下: b j is the threshold of the hidden layer, and the transfer function in the risk prediction model is as follows:此时隐含层的输出λ j为: At this time, the output λ j of the hidden layer is:经过运算筛选处理后,数据达到输出层,输出层神经元的输入项s t与输出项η t分别为: After calculation and screening, the data reaches the output layer, and the input item s t and output item η t of the neurons in the output layer are respectively:其中v jt是隐含层到输出层的权值,ξ t是输出层的阈值; Where v jt is the weight from the hidden layer to the output layer, ξ t is the threshold of the output layer;通过LSTM神经网络,由输入的n指标参数得到t个预测输出,对输出的预测结果进行判断,根据结果的异常数量,即存在的风险因素数量,根据风险预警指标判断其对应的风险等级。Through the LSTM neural network, t prediction outputs are obtained from the input n index parameters, and the output prediction results are judged. According to the abnormal number of results, that is, the number of existing risk factors, the corresponding risk level is judged according to the risk warning indicators.
- 根据权利要求4所述的基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控方法,其特征是若有1个或2个参数异常,则发出一级警报,并报告具体异常数据;若有3个或4个参数异常,则发出二级警报,并报告具体异常数据;若有5个及5个以上参数异常,则发出三级警报,报告具体异常数据。The wind control method for electric power financial business based on GRU-LSTM neural network according to claim 4 is characterized in that if 1 or 2 parameters are abnormal, a first-level alarm is issued and specific abnormal data is reported; if there are 3 Or if 4 parameters are abnormal, a second-level alarm will be issued and specific abnormal data will be reported; if 5 or more parameters are abnormal, a third-level alarm will be issued and specific abnormal data will be reported.
- 根据权利要求1或2所述的基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控方法,其特征是,根据风险等级预测结果,调整金融业务,对实时监测的数据进行再次模拟,直至风险预警模型不再输出异常风险因素。According to claim 1 or 2, the power financial business risk control method based on GRU-LSTM neural network is characterized in that, according to the risk level prediction results, the financial business is adjusted, and the real-time monitoring data is re-simulated until the risk early warning model Abnormal risk factors are no longer output.
- 基于GRU-LSTM神经网络的电力金融业务风控系统,其特征是具有计算机可读存储介质,计算机可读存储介质中配置有计算机程序,所述计算机程序被执行时实现权利要求1-6任一项所述的风险预警模型。The wind control system for electric power financial business based on the GRU-LSTM neural network is characterized in that it has a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is configured in the computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed, any one of claims 1-6 is realized The risk early warning model mentioned in the item.
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