WO2022141883A1 - Enterprise revenue trend prediction method and apparatus, and computer device and storage medium - Google Patents

Enterprise revenue trend prediction method and apparatus, and computer device and storage medium Download PDF

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WO2022141883A1
WO2022141883A1 PCT/CN2021/084531 CN2021084531W WO2022141883A1 WO 2022141883 A1 WO2022141883 A1 WO 2022141883A1 CN 2021084531 W CN2021084531 W CN 2021084531W WO 2022141883 A1 WO2022141883 A1 WO 2022141883A1
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data
enterprise
trend
target
revenue
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PCT/CN2021/084531
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French (fr)
Chinese (zh)
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张春玲
刘云风
刘懿祺
王磊
谭韬
汪伟
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平安科技(深圳)有限公司
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00Commerce
    • G06Q30/02Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0201Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
    • G06Q30/0202Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00Commerce
    • G06Q30/02Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0201Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data

Definitions

  • the present application relates to the technical field of data analysis, and in particular, to a method for predicting a corporate revenue trend, a device for predicting a corporate revenue trend, computer equipment, and a computer-readable storage medium.
  • operating income refers to various incomes obtained by an enterprise in the production and operation activities of selling products or providing labor services. It is related to the survival and development of the enterprise and is of great significance to the operation of the enterprise. Revenue trends are an important part of investment analysis.
  • the main purpose of the present application is to provide a method for predicting a company's revenue trend, a device for predicting a company's revenue trend, computer equipment and a computer-readable storage medium.
  • the present application provides a method for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise, comprising the following steps:
  • the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
  • the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the welfare and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
  • the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
  • the present application also provides a device for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise, and the device for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise includes:
  • the acquisition module is used to acquire multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data. dimensions; each of the dimensions includes at least one type of factor data;
  • a first prediction module configured to predict a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
  • the second prediction module is configured to determine, according to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each of the dimensions, the welfare and decline index of each of the dimensions in the target period, wherein the welfare and decline index is calculated by using for determining the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
  • the third prediction module is configured to predict the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions.
  • the present application also provides a computer device, the computer device comprising:
  • the computer device includes a memory, a processor, and a program for predicting business revenue trends stored on the memory and executable on the processor, when the program for predicting business revenue trends is executed by the processor Implement forecasting methods for business revenue trends;
  • the steps of the method for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise include:
  • the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
  • the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the welfare and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
  • the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
  • the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which is stored a forecasting program for an enterprise's revenue trend, and the forecasting program for an enterprise's revenue trend is implemented when executed by a processor. Prediction of corporate revenue trends;
  • the steps of the method for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise include:
  • the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
  • the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the welfare and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
  • the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
  • the forecasting method of enterprise revenue trend, the forecasting device for enterprise revenue trend, computer equipment and computer-readable storage medium provided by this application by considering multiple dimensions such as macro data, industrial data, financial data, capital data, public opinion data, etc. Automatically obtain the multi-dimensional data that affects the target company's revenue, establish multiple quantitative indicators to reflect the multi-dimensional explanatory factors of the target company's revenue, and build an explanation system for the target company's revenue on this basis, so as to improve the forecast of corporate revenue. While improving the efficiency of trends, the accuracy of forecasting corporate revenue trends has been improved.
  • 1 is a schematic diagram of the steps of a method for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise in an embodiment of the application
  • FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram of an apparatus for predicting an enterprise revenue trend according to an embodiment of the application
  • FIG. 3 is a schematic structural block diagram of a computer device according to an embodiment of the present application.
  • the method for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise includes:
  • Step S10 acquiring multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions in financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data ; each of the dimensions includes at least one type of factor data;
  • Step S20 predicting the second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in multiple periods before the target period;
  • Step S30 According to the second rate of change of all factor data corresponding to each dimension, determine the independence and decline index of each dimension in the target period, wherein the welfare and decline index is used to determine the the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
  • Step S40 Predict the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions.
  • the execution terminal of the embodiment may be a computer device, or may be an apparatus for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise.
  • the target enterprise is the enterprise to be analyzed, that is, the enterprise whose revenue trend needs to be analyzed.
  • the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions (or types) of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data.
  • financial data may include the target company's operating costs, cash flow data, corporate assets, etc.
  • capital market data may include the target company's stock price, capital flow, price-earnings ratio, market value, etc.
  • corporate public opinion enthusiasm may include the target company's operations Good/bad news in the field (for example, good news will increase the popularity of corporate public opinion, while good news will reduce the public opinion enthusiasm of the company), brokerage evaluations (for example, positive comments will increase corporate public opinion enthusiasm, and negative comments will reduce corporate public opinion enthusiasm), Market expectations (for example, if the market expectations are met, the popularity of corporate public opinion will increase, and if market expectations are not met, the popularity of corporate public opinions will be reduced), the search volume of the target company (the higher the search volume, the higher the public opinion enthusiasm of the company), etc.;
  • the macro data can include industry GDP (Gross Domestic Product), industrial added value, etc.
  • the industry GDP is the manufacturing GDP
  • the industry data corresponding to the industry to which the target company belongs can include industry products.
  • Output, industry product sales, such as the industry product output corresponding to the smartphone industry is the smartphone output.
  • the enterprise data collected by the terminal is all data related to or affecting the corporate revenue of the target company. It should be understood that the good performance of corporate data will affect the positive growth of corporate revenue, and the poor performance of corporate data will lead to negative growth of corporate revenue. Therefore, the process of predicting corporate revenue trends is to analyze the performance of corporate data. process.
  • the terminal configures a corresponding dimension for each type of enterprise data by analyzing the data type of the enterprise data, that is, each dimension of the target enterprise is determined according to the type of enterprise data corresponding to the dimension (that is, each type of enterprise data).
  • Enterprise data corresponds to one dimension).
  • the terminal analyzes the main business structure of the target company (for querying corresponding macro data), upstream and downstream industrial links (for querying corresponding industrial data), financial operation status (for obtaining financial data), secondary market The transaction status (used to obtain capital market data) and the attention of market public opinion (used to obtain the popularity of corporate public opinion), etc., build a multi-dimensional database.
  • the terminal when it obtains the enterprise data, it can extract the descriptions about the business structure and main products of the enterprise from the enterprise financial report and enterprise research report of the target enterprise by means of keyword extraction, and then use the business keywords to compare the data in the database.
  • the relevant dimensions are correlated and matched to construct a related dimension system.
  • the keyword extraction here can use the traditional textrank algorithm. First, the important texts of the company's business operations in the financial statements are analyzed through the rules, and the descriptive texts of the company's main products and recent business hotspots are disassembled.
  • Keywords Through the traditional textrank algorithm Extract keywords, then correct the keywords through rules (such as word frequency, sequence positioning) to determine the keywords of the enterprise's business operations and industrial links, and finally determine the keywords corresponding to each dimension of the target enterprise based on the industry in which the enterprise is located.
  • rules such as word frequency, sequence positioning
  • the terminal uses the crawler script to capture the enterprise data corresponding to the dimension from the information related to each dimension.
  • the information related to each dimension For example, for capital market data, it can be obtained from the corporate information published by the target company on the exchange; the public opinion of the company can be captured from the research reports of securities companies; financial data can be captured from the financial statements of the target company; macroscopic Data and industrial data can be captured from economic information published by national authorities.
  • the terminal may record the dimension corresponding to the financial data as the first dimension (or financial indicator), record the dimension corresponding to the capital market data as the second dimension (or capital indicator), and record the dimension corresponding to the public opinion of the enterprise.
  • the dimension is recorded as the third dimension (or public opinion index)
  • the dimension corresponding to macro data is recorded as the fourth dimension (or macro index)
  • the dimension corresponding to industrial data is recorded as the fifth dimension (or industry index).
  • the terminal may only capture specific enterprise data through the crawler script, or after capturing a large amount of enterprise data, it may first filter the enterprise data, and then filter each factor data in the enterprise data, that is added to the subsequent analysis process.
  • the enterprise data of each dimension includes at least one type of factor data, but generally includes multiple types of factor data.
  • the financial data may include factor data such as operating costs, cash flow data, and corporate assets of the target company.
  • the terminal when the terminal acquires enterprise data, for any factor data, it not only acquires the current value of the factor data, but also acquires the value of the factor data in multiple past historical periods.
  • the target period is characterized as the period corresponding to the currently predicted revenue trend of the target company, which may be a future period after the current period (or the current time point), and for each period (including the target period, the current period and the historical period)
  • the time division of the time period) can be set according to the actual situation, such as one month, one quarter, etc.
  • the following description takes the length of each time period as one quarter as an example.
  • the terminal when the terminal obtains the specific values of any factor data in multiple time periods before the target time period (including the current time period and the historical time period), it can calculate the numerical value change of the factor data in each time period (except the target time period). rate (calculated according to the specific values of the adjacent two time periods before and after), as the first rate of change.
  • each industry has its corresponding economic cycle (for example, the economic cycle of the real estate industry is 2-3 years, and the economic cycle of the manufacturing industry is half a year to one year). Therefore, the terminal can determine the target company according to the industry to which the target company belongs. The corresponding industry economic cycle, and then further determine at least one complete industry economic cycle before the target period. It should be understood that the target period belongs to the current industry economic cycle, and what is determined here is the industry economic cycle before the current industry economic cycle.
  • the terminal analyzes the first numerical relationship between the first rate of change of each time period in the same industry economic cycle according to the first rate of change of the factor data corresponding to each time period in at least one industry economic cycle.
  • the more industry economic cycles analyzed by the terminal the more accurate the first numerical relationship between the first change rates of the same factor data obtained between each time period.
  • the terminal can predict that the factor data will be in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in the current industry economic cycle other than the target period and the first numerical relationship between the first rate of change The second rate of change in . It should be understood that for other time periods in the current industry economic cycle other than the target time period, the time nodes are before the target time period. It should be noted that the first change rate is an actual value, and the second change rate is a predicted value.
  • the second rate of change in the fourth quarter of this year based on the first numerical relationship and the first rate of change in the first three quarters of this year (for example, calculating the rate of change in the first three quarters of this year) 50% of the total real growth rate in the third quarter is the second rate of change).
  • the process of the second rate of change of the actual predictor data in the target period is more complicated, which is only exemplified here.
  • the terminal can also analyze the economic cycle of each industry based on the first rate of change of the factor data in each period of previous industry economic cycles.
  • the first rate of change of , and the second numerical relationship between the first period of the next industrial economic cycle of the industry economic cycle (for example, the growth rate of a certain factor data in the first period of the next industrial economic cycle is obtained as A numerical relationship of 10% of the sum of the growth rate of an industry economic cycle), and using the second numerical relationship obtained from the analysis, and the first rate of change of each period in the previous industry economic cycle of the current industry economic cycle, we can predict Obtain the second rate of change of the factor data in the target period (for example, the second rate of change is calculated as 10% of the sum of the growth rates of the previous industry economic cycle in the current industry economic cycle).
  • the terminal may predict the second rate of change of each type of factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of each type of factor data in multiple periods before the target period.
  • the second rate of change may be a negative value, which is represented as a negative growth of the factor data during the target period.
  • step S30 after obtaining the second rate of change of all factor data in the enterprise data corresponding to each dimension, the terminal can determine the welfare and decline index corresponding to each dimension based on this.
  • the welfare and decline index is used to determine the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend.
  • a benchmark value such as a value of 50
  • the concept of poverty and decline index is equivalent to the line of poverty and decline.
  • the line of poverty and decline is the critical value of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the Entrepreneur Confidence Index, which can reflect the macroeconomic developments, development trends, and entrepreneurs' views and confidence in the macroeconomy.
  • the PMI value usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength, while the entrepreneur confidence index takes 100% as the line of prosperity and decline.
  • the terminal is pre-configured with its corresponding first weight for each type of factor data, and the method for determining the first weight can be determined according to the correlation coefficient between the factor data and the target company's corporate revenue, or it can be determined by a relevant engineer. pre-set and type in the terminal's.
  • the correlation coefficient is a statistical index in statistics, and is a statistical index for studying the closeness of the linear correlation between two variables.
  • the calculation formula of the welfare and decline index corresponding to each dimension is as follows:
  • n is the number of all factor data in the enterprise data corresponding to the dimension
  • Xi is the second rate of change corresponding to the factor data
  • Wi is the first weight corresponding to the factor data.
  • the terminal can separately calculate and obtain the decisions and decline index corresponding to each dimension.
  • step S40 the terminal obtains the second weight corresponding to each dimension index, and then predicts the revenue trend of the target company in the target period (ie, the company's operating income trend) according to the prosperity and decline indices and the second weight corresponding to all dimension indices. .
  • the second weight corresponding to each dimension index may be determined according to the correlation coefficient between the dimension index and the corporate revenue of the target enterprise, and the greater the positive correlation coefficient, the greater the second weight (or The smaller the correlation coefficient that is negatively correlated, the larger the second weight); the second weight can also be preset by the relevant engineer after considering the impact of each dimension index on the company's revenue, and input the preset weight of the terminal, For example, set the second weight corresponding to the financial dimension to 0.3, set the second weight corresponding to the macro dimension to 0.25, set the second weight corresponding to the industry dimension to 0.15, set the second weight corresponding to the capital dimension to 0.2, and set the second weight corresponding to the public opinion dimension to 0.2.
  • the second weight is 0.1.
  • the terminal may use the welfare and decline index predicted by each dimension in the target period as the first province and decline index, and obtain the behaviour and decline index actually calculated in the previous period of the target period as the second province and decline index, and then calculate Compared with the change rate of the second province and decline index, the third change rate corresponding to each dimension is obtained (the third change rate can be a negative number, which means that the welfare and decline index in the target period is higher than that of the previous period. decreased).
  • the target period is equivalent to the future period, and the period before the target period is the period that has already occurred, in the period before the target period, all the data used to calculate the second welfare and decline index are the ones that have already occurred. (that is, directly substitute the first rate of change of the relevant factor data in this period into the calculation formula of the welfare and decline index, without using the predicted second rate of change), and then directly calculate the corresponding period before the target period. the second boom-and-bust index.
  • the formula for calculating the revenue trend of the target company is as follows:
  • N is the total number of dimensions
  • O i is the third rate of change corresponding to the dimension
  • P i is the second weight corresponding to the dimension.
  • the terminal when it predicts the revenue trend of the target company, it may also directly perform weighted sum calculation according to the prosperity and decline index and the second weight corresponding to all dimension indices to obtain the revenue trend of the target company.
  • the specific calculation formula is as follows:
  • N is the total number of dimensions
  • Y i is the welfare and decline index of the dimension in the target period
  • P i is the second weight corresponding to the dimension.
  • the multi-dimensional data affecting the target company's revenue is automatically obtained, and multiple quantitative indicators are established to reflect the target company's revenue.
  • an explanation system for the target company's revenue is constructed, so as to improve the efficiency of predicting the company's revenue trend, and at the same time improve the accuracy of predicting the company's revenue trend.
  • the method further includes:
  • Step S50 analyzing the correlation coefficient between the sub-data in each of the dimensions and the historical revenue of the target company, wherein the data in each of the dimensions is divided into multiple types of the sub-data;
  • Step S51 Use the sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside the preset value range as the factor data.
  • the terminal uses the crawler script to capture the enterprise data corresponding to each dimension
  • the data in each dimension of the enterprise data will be divided into multiple types of sub-data.
  • the sub-data that is related to the target company's corporate revenue is screened out, and the sub-data obtained by screening is used as factor data for subsequent analysis of the target company's revenue trend.
  • the terminal obtains the enterprise revenue of the target enterprise in multiple periods before the target period as historical revenue, and then also obtains multiple periods of each type of subdata before the target period for each type of sub-data in the enterprise data.
  • the correlation analysis between each type of sub-data and historical revenue is performed to calculate the correlation coefficient between each type of sub-data and historical revenue.
  • the calculation method of the correlation coefficient may be a calculation method of a Spearman correlation coefficient, a calculation method of a Pearson correlation coefficient, or the like. It should be noted that the correlation is a non-deterministic relationship, and the correlation coefficient is a measure of the degree of linear correlation between the research variables.
  • the value of the correlation coefficient is between -1 and 1.
  • the value of the correlation coefficient is 0, it represents the two observational quantities for calculating the correlation coefficient (the observational quantity here is the historical revenue and any data in the enterprise data).
  • the observational quantity here is the historical revenue and any data in the enterprise data.
  • There is no correlation between a class of sub-data when the correlation coefficient is greater than 0, it indicates a positive correlation between the two observations; when the correlation coefficient is less than 0, it indicates a negative correlation between the two observations.
  • a preset numerical interval (which can be recorded as the first interval) can be set, and it is defined that when the correlation coefficient is within the preset numerical interval, there is no correlation between the two observations corresponding to the correlation coefficient; When it is set outside the value interval, there is a correlation between the two observations corresponding to the correlation coefficient.
  • the value range of the lower limit of the interval of the preset value interval is less than or equal to 0 and greater than -1
  • the value range of the upper limit of the interval is greater than or equal to 0 and less than 1. It should be understood that the specific value of the preset value interval can be set according to the actual situation, for example, it is set to [-0.3, 0.3]
  • the terminal after analyzing and obtaining the correlation coefficient between each type of sub-data in the enterprise data and historical revenue, the terminal further detects whether the correlation coefficient corresponding to each type of sub-data is within a preset value range.
  • the terminal detects that the correlation coefficient corresponding to any type of sub-data is outside the preset numerical range, then the type of sub-data is used as factor data to calculate the honor of the dimension corresponding to the enterprise data.
  • Dry index that is, applying factor data to the subsequent analysis of the target company's revenue trend.
  • the terminal when the terminal detects that the correlation coefficient corresponding to any type of sub-data is within the preset value range, it may remove this type of sub-data, and no longer use this type of sub-data to calculate the corresponding enterprise data.
  • the growth and decline index of the dimension is no longer used in the analysis of revenue trends.
  • the terminal can establish a factor screening model according to the calculation principle of the correlation coefficient and the preset value interval. It only needs to input the data value and historical revenue of each type of sub-data in multiple time periods into the factor screening model, and then the filter can be obtained. factor data.
  • the factor data that has a certain correlation with the company's revenue can be obtained by analyzing the correlation coefficient, and there are some factor data (referred to as the first factor data) in these factor data that are strongly correlated with the company's revenue, However, it cannot be ruled out that some of the factor data (referred to as the second factor data) are only because of their strong correlation with the first factor data, so that the numerical changes of the second factor data seem to be related to the company's revenue. There is no or weak correlation between the second factor data and the company's revenue.
  • the first factor data is positively correlated with the company's revenue, and it is also positively correlated with the second factor data, then the second factor data will appear to be positively correlated with the company's revenue, but in fact, if the first factor data is ignored may not have a necessary correlation between the second factor data and corporate revenue. Therefore, if the second factor data in the factor data is further eliminated, the accuracy of the final predicted corporate revenue trend can be further improved.
  • the terminal may first determine the first factor data from the factor data, and use other factor data other than the first factor data as the second factor data.
  • the first factor data may be preset factor data preset by a relevant engineer, and the terminal only needs to detect whether the factor data belongs to the preset factor data, if so, it is the first factor data, and if not, it is the second factor data.
  • the terminal may also determine the first factor data according to the correlation coefficient between the factor data and historical revenue, and specifically detect whether the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data is within the second interval (that is, a preset different from the first interval). Numerical interval), if it is the first factor data, otherwise it is the second factor data. Among them, the second interval is used to measure the correlation strength between factor data and historical revenue, and its specific value range can be set according to actual needs, such as [-1,-0.6] ⁇ [0.6,1].
  • the terminal determines the second expansion and contraction index actually calculated in the period before the target period, and then uses the first factor data to calculate the third expansion and contraction index for the period, and determines the difference between the third expansion and contraction index and the second expansion and contraction index. The first difference between .
  • the terminal adds the second factor data to the first factor data one by one to calculate the fourth expansion and contraction index of the period, and determines the second difference between the fourth expansion and contraction index and the second expansion and contraction index;
  • the first difference is compared with the second difference, and if it is detected that the second difference is smaller than the first difference, it indicates that the second factor data used to calculate the fourth decisions and decline index is useful for improving the accuracy of calculating the province and decline index.
  • the second factor data is related to the company's revenue, so the second factor data can be updated to the first factor data; if it is detected that the second difference is greater than or equal to the first difference, It shows that the second factor data used to calculate the fourth profits and decline index is not helpful for improving the accuracy of calculating the prosperity and decline index, which means that the second factor data may not be related to the company's revenue.
  • the second factor data is used as the data to be excluded.
  • the terminal after determining the data to be excluded in the factor data, the terminal removes the factor data corresponding to the data to be excluded, and uses the remaining factor data to calculate the welfare and decline index of the dimension corresponding to the enterprise data to which the factor data belongs, That is, these factor data are applied to the process of subsequent analysis of the target company's revenue trend, so as to further improve the accuracy of predicting the company's revenue trend.
  • the terminal may further filter the data to be rejected before removing the data to be rejected.
  • the correlation coefficient between the factor data and historical revenue is recorded as the first correlation coefficient, and then the correlation coefficient between the data to be excluded and the first factor data (referred to as the second correlation coefficient) is determined respectively, based on this Analyze whether the data to be excluded has the first factor data with strong correlation with it.
  • the terminal when the terminal detects that in the second correlation coefficient corresponding to the data to be excluded, there is a second correlation coefficient within the third interval, that is, it is determined that the data to be excluded has first factor data with strong correlation with it; otherwise , then it is determined that there is no first factor data with strong correlation with the data to be excluded.
  • the third interval is used to measure the correlation strength between the data to be excluded and the first factor data, and its specific value range can be set according to the actual situation, for example, it is set to [-1,-0.7] ⁇ [0.7 ,1].
  • the terminal when the terminal detects that the data to be excluded does not have the first factor data that is strongly correlated with it, it indicates that the data to be excluded is related to the company's revenue (because its corresponding second correlation index is not does not affect its corresponding first correlation index), then the data to be excluded is changed to the first factor data, and it is no longer excluded; when the terminal detects that the data to be excluded has first factor data with strong correlation with it , it means that the data to be excluded has no correlation with the company’s revenue (because its corresponding first correlation index is affected by its corresponding second correlation index, so that the first correlation index is not within the first interval ), so the to-be-excluded data can be eliminated.
  • the method further includes:
  • Step S52 determining the first weight of the factor data according to the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data
  • the step of determining, according to the second rate of change of all factor data corresponding to each of the dimensions, the welfare and decline index of each of the dimensions in the target period includes:
  • Step S31 according to the second change rate and the first weight of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, determine the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period.
  • the terminal performs correlation analysis between each type of factor data and historical revenue, and obtains a correlation coefficient between each type of factor data and historical revenue.
  • the terminal determines the first weight corresponding to the factor data according to the correlation coefficient, the larger the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data, the larger the determined first weight.
  • the terminal determines the first weight corresponding to the factor data according to the correlation coefficient, the smaller the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data, the larger the determined first weight.
  • the terminal calculates the corresponding value of each dimension according to the second rate of change and the first weight of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension.
  • the boom and bust index The calculation formula of the welfare and decline index corresponding to each dimension is as follows:
  • n is the number of all factor data in the enterprise data corresponding to the dimension
  • Xi is the second rate of change corresponding to the factor data
  • Wi is the first weight corresponding to the factor data.
  • the method before the step of predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the method further includes:
  • Step S60 determining the second weight corresponding to the dimension according to a preset rule
  • the step of predicting the revenue trend of the target company in the target period according to the province and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions includes:
  • Step S41 predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the province and decline index and the second weight corresponding to all the dimensions.
  • the terminal before determining the revenue trend, the terminal needs to determine the second weight corresponding to each dimension first.
  • the terminal may determine the second weight corresponding to each dimension according to a preset rule.
  • the preset rules include any of the following:
  • the first preset rule the terminal determines the first accuracy rate corresponding to the dimension according to the historical actual expansion and contraction index and the historical predicted expansion index corresponding to the dimension, and determines the second weight according to the first accuracy rate , where the higher the first accuracy, the higher the second weight; or,
  • Second preset rule the terminal generates multiple weight combinations according to the number of the dimensions, and determines the historically predicted revenue trend based on the weight combination and the historical actual decisions and decline index corresponding to each of the dimensions, and according to the historical forecast The revenue trend and the historical actual revenue trend determine the second accuracy rate corresponding to the weight combination, and determine the second weight corresponding to each of the dimensions according to the weight combination with the highest second accuracy rate; or,
  • the terminal uses big data to analyze the degree of correlation between the revenue of each dimension according to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and determines the second weight corresponding to each dimension according to the degree of correlation corresponding to each dimension, wherein , the greater the degree of association, the greater the second weight.
  • the terminal uses big data to analyze the degree of correlation between the revenue of each dimension according to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and determines the second weight corresponding to each dimension according to the degree of correlation corresponding to each dimension, wherein , the greater the degree of association, the greater the second weight.
  • a higher weight can be assigned to the macro indicators of real estate companies.
  • the terminal may first use the factor data corresponding to each dimension to calculate the historical actual welfare and decline index of each dimension in any period before the target period (denoted as the second period), And according to the factor data of the period before the second period (denoted as the third period), the historical forecastisation and decline index of the second period is calculated. Then, according to the deviation between the historically predicted province and decline index and the historical actual province and decline index of each dimension in the second period, the first accuracy rate corresponding to each dimension is calculated (the first accuracy rate is the calculated prosperity and decline index). accuracy). Among them, the higher the first accuracy rate corresponding to the dimension, the closer the historical forecast decisions and decline index is to the historical actual republic and decline index. Therefore, when the first accuracy rate corresponding to a dimension is higher, a larger first accuracy rate can be assigned to this dimension. Two weights, so that the revenue trend determined by the subsequent rise and fall index corresponding to this dimension will be more accurate.
  • the target period is equivalent to the future period, and the period before the target period is the period that has occurred, in the period before the target period, the data used to calculate the historical actual welfare and decline index are Knowing that, and to calculate the historical forecast welfare and decline index of this period, we only need to use the factor data before this period.
  • the terminal Based on the second preset rule, the terminal generates multiple weight combinations according to the number of dimensions, and each weight combination is set with a second weight corresponding to each dimension.
  • the actual historical welfare and decline index corresponding to each dimension in any period before the target period (referred to as the second period) is obtained, and the historical actual revenue trend corresponding to the second period is obtained.
  • the historical forecast revenue trend determined in different weight combinations is calculated. It should be understood that a historical forecast revenue trend can be calculated for each combination of weights.
  • the terminal analyzes the deviation value between each historical forecasted revenue trend and the historical actual revenue trend to obtain the corresponding value of each weight combination.
  • the second accuracy rate wherein the higher the second accuracy rate, the closer the corresponding historical forecasted revenue trend is to the historical actual revenue trend.
  • the terminal obtains the weight combination with the second highest accuracy rate, and obtains the second weight allocation ratio of each dimension in the weight combination, and finally determines the second weight corresponding to each dimension based on this, so that when these dimensions correspond to the subsequent use The revenue trend determined by the second weight is more accurate.
  • the degree of relevance of each dimension to the corporate revenue of the industry to which the target company belongs may be determined by relevant engineers based on actual experience data (for example, the financial industry is deeply affected by capital market data, and A higher weight can be set for the capital dimension), and the relevant setting information of the second weight corresponding to each dimension is input into the terminal, and the terminal can directly obtain it.
  • the terminal obtains the second weight corresponding to each dimension index, and then predicts the revenue trend of the target company in the target period (ie, the company's operating income trend) according to the prosperity and decline indices and the second weight corresponding to all dimension indices.
  • the preset rule is equivalent to a logical analysis process of the degree of correlation between each dimension and the company's revenue, and based on this, a higher weight is assigned to the dimension with a high degree of correlation, so as to make the revenue trend based on this prediction more accurate. to be accurate.
  • the method further includes:
  • Step S70 Write the enterprise data into the blockchain node to construct the database of the target enterprise.
  • the terminal may first filter the enterprise data, then obtain the enterprise data belonging to the factor data, and write the enterprise data into the blockchain node, so as to be based on the blockchain technology Build a database of target companies.
  • Blockchain is a new application mode of computer technology such as distributed data storage, point-to-point transmission, consensus mechanism, and encryption algorithm.
  • Blockchain essentially a decentralized database, is a series of data blocks associated with cryptographic methods. Each data block contains a batch of network transaction information to verify its Validity of information (anti-counterfeiting) and generation of the next block.
  • the blockchain can include the underlying platform of the blockchain, the platform product service layer, and the application service layer.
  • the underlying platform of the blockchain can include processing modules such as user management, basic services, smart contracts, and operation monitoring.
  • the user management module is responsible for the identity information management of all blockchain participants, including maintenance of public and private key generation (account management), key management, and maintenance of the corresponding relationship between the user's real identity and blockchain address (authority management), etc.
  • account management maintenance of public and private key generation
  • key management key management
  • authorization management maintenance of the corresponding relationship between the user's real identity and blockchain address
  • the basic service module is deployed on all blockchain node devices to verify the validity of business requests, After completing the consensus on valid requests, record them in the storage.
  • the basic service For a new business request, the basic service first adapts the interface for analysis and authentication processing (interface adaptation), and then encrypts the business information through the consensus algorithm (consensus management), After encryption, it is completely and consistently transferred to the shared ledger (network communication), and records are stored; the smart contract module is responsible for the registration and issuance of contracts, as well as contract triggering and contract execution.
  • contract logic through a programming language and publish to On the blockchain (contract registration), according to the logic of the contract terms, call the key or other events to trigger execution, complete the contract logic, and also provide the function of contract upgrade and cancellation;
  • the operation monitoring module is mainly responsible for the deployment in the product release process , configuration modification, contract settings, cloud adaptation, and visual output of real-time status in product operation, such as: alarms, monitoring network conditions, monitoring node equipment health status, etc.
  • the enterprise data can be stored in the blockchain network, and it is easy to access and use, forming a database of the target enterprise, which improves the security of enterprise data storage, and also improves the security of enterprise data storage. It is convenient for further data analysis based on the database.
  • Step S80 When it is detected that the revenue trend is a downward trend, output alarm information to an associated device of the target enterprise.
  • the terminal after the terminal predicts and obtains the revenue trend of the target company in the target period, it can generate and output the revenue report of the target company by using the revenue trend.
  • the terminal when it detects that the predicted revenue trend is a downward trend, it can further generate alarm information according to the prosperity and decline index and revenue trend corresponding to each dimension, and then output the alarm information to the relevant personnel of the target enterprise.
  • Associate the equipment to remind the relevant personnel of the target enterprise to take risk control measures in time, so as to maximize the interests of the target enterprise.
  • the terminal after the terminal performs step S30, it can also further detect whether the change trend of the welfare and decline index corresponding to each dimension is a downward trend; prompting information, and outputting the first prompting information to the associated equipment of the target enterprise, wherein the first prompting information is risk prompting information to remind the relevant personnel of the target enterprise that the field in which the dimension is located has risks that affect the revenue of the enterprise; if No, the terminal generates second prompt information according to the rising trend of poverty and decline index and its dimensions, and outputs the second prompt information to the associated equipment of the target enterprise, wherein the second prompt information is opportunity prompt information to prompt the target enterprise There are opportunities to increase the company's revenue in the field in which the dimension is located, and the business layout can be strengthened in the field in which the dimension is located.
  • an embodiment of the present application further provides an apparatus 10 for predicting an enterprise revenue trend, including:
  • the acquisition module 11 is used to acquire multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least one of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data. two dimensions; each of said dimensions includes at least one type of factor data;
  • a first prediction module 12 configured to predict a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
  • the second prediction module 13 is configured to determine, according to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the welfare and decline index of each dimension in the target period, wherein the welfare and decline index for determining the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
  • the third prediction module 14 is configured to predict the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions.
  • an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer device.
  • the computer device may be a server, and its internal structure may be as shown in FIG. 3 .
  • the computer device includes a processor, memory, a network interface, and a database connected by a system bus. Among them, the processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities.
  • the memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium, an internal memory.
  • the nonvolatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program, and a database.
  • the internal memory provides an environment for the execution of the operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium.
  • the database of the computer equipment is used in the forecasting program of the company's revenue trend.
  • the network interface of the computer device is used to communicate with external terminals through a network connection.
  • the computer program when executed by a processor, implements a method of forecasting business revenue trends.
  • FIG. 3 is only a block diagram of a partial structure related to the solution of the present application, and does not constitute a limitation on the computer equipment to which the solution of the present application is applied.
  • the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium includes a program for predicting a company's revenue trend, and when the program for predicting a company's revenue trend is executed by a processor, the implementation is as described in the above embodiments. The steps of the forecasting method of the company's revenue trend described above. It can be understood that, the computer-readable storage medium in this embodiment may be non-volatile or volatile.
  • the method for predicting the enterprise revenue trend, the device for predicting the enterprise revenue trend, the computer equipment and the storage medium provided in the embodiments of this application are based on the consideration of macro data, industrial data, financial data, capital data, and public opinion.
  • Data and other dimensions automatically obtain multi-dimensional data affecting the target company's revenue, establish multiple quantitative indicators to reflect the multi-dimensional explanatory factors of the target company's revenue, and build an explanation system for the target company's revenue on this basis, so as to While improving the efficiency of forecasting enterprise revenue trends, the accuracy of predicting enterprise revenue trends is also improved.
  • Nonvolatile memory may include read only memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), electrically programmable ROM (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable ROM (EEPROM), or flash memory.
  • Volatile memory may include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory.
  • RAM is available in various forms such as static RAM (SRAM), dynamic RAM (DRAM), synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), double-rate SDRAM (SSRSDRAM), enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), synchronous Link (Synchlink) DRAM (SLDRAM), memory bus (Rambus) direct RAM (RDRAM), direct memory bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM), etc.

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Abstract

An enterprise revenue trend prediction method and apparatus, and a computer device and a computer-readable storage medium, relating to the technical field of big data and data analysis. The method comprises: obtaining multi-dimensional enterprise data of a target enterprise, each dimension comprising at least one type of factor data; predicting a second change rate of the factor data in a target time period according to a first change rate of the factor data in multiple time periods before the target time period; determining the purchasing managers' index of each dimension in the target time period according to the second change rate of all factor data corresponding to each dimension; and predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target time period according to the purchasing managers' indexes corresponding to all the dimensions. The method improves the efficiency and accuracy of predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise.

Description

企业营收趋势的预测方法、装置、计算机设备及存储介质Forecasting method, apparatus, computer equipment and storage medium for enterprise revenue trend
本申请要求于2020年12月31日提交中国专利局、申请号为2020116330702,发明名称为“企业营收趋势的预测方法、装置、计算机设备及存储介质”的中国专利申请的优先权,其全部内容通过引用结合在本申请中。This application claims the priority of the Chinese patent application filed on December 31, 2020 with the application number 2020116330702 and the invention titled "Method, Apparatus, Computer Equipment and Storage Medium for Forecasting Enterprise Revenue Trend", all of which The contents are incorporated herein by reference.
技术领域technical field
本申请涉及数据分析技术领域,尤其涉及一种企业营收趋势的预测方法、企业营收趋势的预测装置、计算机设备以及计算机可读存储介质。The present application relates to the technical field of data analysis, and in particular, to a method for predicting a corporate revenue trend, a device for predicting a corporate revenue trend, computer equipment, and a computer-readable storage medium.
背景技术Background technique
随着国民经济的快速发展,实现相关经济数据的智能化分析日益重要。在金融行业中,营业收入是指企业在生产经营活动中,因销售产品或提供劳务取得的各项收入,它关系到企业的生存和发展,对企业经营有重要的意义,因此,准确预测企业营收趋势是投资分析的重要内容。With the rapid development of the national economy, it is increasingly important to realize intelligent analysis of relevant economic data. In the financial industry, operating income refers to various incomes obtained by an enterprise in the production and operation activities of selling products or providing labor services. It is related to the survival and development of the enterprise and is of great significance to the operation of the enterprise. Revenue trends are an important part of investment analysis.
目前,在对企业营收趋势进行预测的时候,通常是由基金经理和研究员等对众多数据进行跟踪,然后根据所跟踪的数据得到预测值,但是发明人意识到,这样对企业营收趋势预测的效率不仅低下,且由于预测过程往往依赖于基金经理和研究员的个人经验,导致最后得到的预测结果不一定准确。At present, when predicting the trend of corporate revenue, fund managers and researchers usually track a lot of data, and then obtain the predicted value according to the tracked data, but the inventor realized that this way to predict the trend of corporate revenue The efficiency is not only low, but because the forecasting process often relies on the personal experience of fund managers and researchers, the final forecast results are not necessarily accurate.
上述内容仅用于辅助理解本申请的技术方案,并不代表承认上述内容是现有技术。The above content is only used to assist the understanding of the technical solutions of the present application, and does not mean that the above content is the prior art.
技术问题technical problem
本申请的主要目的在于提供一种企业营收趋势的预测方法、企业营收趋势的预测装置、计算机设备以及计算机可读存储介质,旨在解决如何提高预测企业营收趋势的效率的同时,提高预测企业营收趋势的准确率的问题。The main purpose of the present application is to provide a method for predicting a company's revenue trend, a device for predicting a company's revenue trend, computer equipment and a computer-readable storage medium. The problem with the accuracy of forecasting business revenue trends.
技术解决方案technical solutions
为实现上述目的,本申请提供一种企业营收趋势的预测方法,包括以下步骤:In order to achieve the above purpose, the present application provides a method for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise, comprising the following steps:
获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;Obtain multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;predicting a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;According to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the prosperity and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。According to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
为实现上述目的,本申请还提供一种企业营收趋势的预测装置,所述企业营收趋势的预测装置包括:In order to achieve the above purpose, the present application also provides a device for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise, and the device for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise includes:
获取模块,用于获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的 至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;The acquisition module is used to acquire multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data. dimensions; each of the dimensions includes at least one type of factor data;
第一预测模块,用于根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;a first prediction module, configured to predict a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
第二预测模块,用于根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;The second prediction module is configured to determine, according to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each of the dimensions, the prosperity and decline index of each of the dimensions in the target period, wherein the prosperity and decline index is calculated by using for determining the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
第三预测模块,用于根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。The third prediction module is configured to predict the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions.
为实现上述目的,本申请还提供一种计算机设备,所述计算机设备包括:To achieve the above purpose, the present application also provides a computer device, the computer device comprising:
所述计算机设备包括存储器、处理器及存储在所述存储器上并可在所述处理器上运行的企业营收趋势的预测程序,所述企业营收趋势的预测程序被所述处理器执行时实现企业营收趋势的预测方法;The computer device includes a memory, a processor, and a program for predicting business revenue trends stored on the memory and executable on the processor, when the program for predicting business revenue trends is executed by the processor Implement forecasting methods for business revenue trends;
其中,所述企业营收趋势的预测方法的步骤包括:Wherein, the steps of the method for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise include:
获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;Obtain multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;predicting a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;According to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the prosperity and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。According to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
为实现上述目的,本申请还提供一种计算机可读存储介质,所述计算机可读存储介质上存储有企业营收趋势的预测程序,所述企业营收趋势的预测程序被处理器执行时实现企业营收趋势的预测方法;In order to achieve the above object, the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which is stored a forecasting program for an enterprise's revenue trend, and the forecasting program for an enterprise's revenue trend is implemented when executed by a processor. Prediction of corporate revenue trends;
其中,所述企业营收趋势的预测方法的步骤包括:Wherein, the steps of the method for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise include:
获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;Obtain multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;predicting a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;According to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the prosperity and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。According to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
有益效果beneficial effect
本申请提供的企业营收趋势的预测方法、企业营收趋势的预测装置、计算机设备以及计算机可读存储介质,通过考量宏观数据、产业数据、财务数据、资本数据、舆情数据等多个维度,自动获取影响目标企业营收的多维度数据,建立多个量化指标来反映目标企业营收的多维度解释因子,并在此基础上构建目标企业营收的解释体系,从而在提高预测企 业营收趋势的效率的同时,提高了预测企业营收趋势的准确率。The forecasting method of enterprise revenue trend, the forecasting device for enterprise revenue trend, computer equipment and computer-readable storage medium provided by this application, by considering multiple dimensions such as macro data, industrial data, financial data, capital data, public opinion data, etc. Automatically obtain the multi-dimensional data that affects the target company's revenue, establish multiple quantitative indicators to reflect the multi-dimensional explanatory factors of the target company's revenue, and build an explanation system for the target company's revenue on this basis, so as to improve the forecast of corporate revenue. While improving the efficiency of trends, the accuracy of forecasting corporate revenue trends has been improved.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1为本申请一实施例中企业营收趋势的预测方法步骤示意图;1 is a schematic diagram of the steps of a method for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise in an embodiment of the application;
图2为本申请一实施例的企业营收趋势的预测装置示意框图;FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram of an apparatus for predicting an enterprise revenue trend according to an embodiment of the application;
图3为本申请一实施例的计算机设备的结构示意框图。FIG. 3 is a schematic structural block diagram of a computer device according to an embodiment of the present application.
本申请目的的实现、功能特点及优点将结合实施例,参照附图做进一步说明。The realization, functional characteristics and advantages of the purpose of the present application will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with the embodiments.
本发明的最佳实施方式BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
为了使本申请的目的、技术方案及优点更加清楚明白,以下结合附图及实施例,对本申请进行进一步详细说明。应当理解,此处描述的具体实施例仅仅用以解释本申请,并不用于限定本申请。In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more clearly understood, the present application will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application, but not to limit the present application.
参照图1,在一实施例中,所述企业营收趋势的预测方法包括:Referring to FIG. 1, in one embodiment, the method for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise includes:
步骤S10、获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;Step S10, acquiring multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions in financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data ; each of the dimensions includes at least one type of factor data;
步骤S20、根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;Step S20, predicting the second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in multiple periods before the target period;
步骤S30、根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;Step S30: According to the second rate of change of all factor data corresponding to each dimension, determine the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period, wherein the prosperity and decline index is used to determine the the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
步骤S40、根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。Step S40: Predict the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions.
本实施例中,涉及企业风险评估管控业务领域。实施例的执行终端可以是计算机设备,也可以是一种企业营收趋势的预测装置。In this embodiment, the business field of enterprise risk assessment management and control is involved. The execution terminal of the embodiment may be a computer device, or may be an apparatus for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise.
如步骤S10所述:目标企业为待分析的企业,即为需要对其营收趋势进行分析的企业。As described in step S10: the target enterprise is the enterprise to be analyzed, that is, the enterprise whose revenue trend needs to be analyzed.
可选的,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度(或称类型),以下以企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据这五类数据为例进行说明。Optionally, the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions (or types) of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data. Five types of data, including financial data, capital market data, corporate public opinion, and macro data and industrial data corresponding to the industry to which the target company belongs, are used as examples to illustrate.
其中,财务数据可以是包括目标企业的营业成本、现金流数据、企业资产等;资本市场数据可以是包括目标企业的股价、资金流向、市盈率、市值等;企业舆情热度可以是包括目标企业的经营领域的利好/利空消息(例如有利好消息则增加企业舆情热度,有利空消息则降低企业舆情热度)、券商评价(例如有正面评价则增加企业舆情热度,有负面评价则降低企业舆情热度)、市场预期(例如达到市场预期则增加企业舆情热度,未达到市场预期则降低企业舆情热度)、目标企业的被搜索量(被搜索量越高,企业舆情热度越高)等;目标企业所属行业对应的宏观数据可以是包括行业GDP(Gross Domestic Product)、工业增加值等,如目标企业若属于制造业行业,则行业GDP即为制造业GDP;目标企业所属行业对应的产业数据可以是包括行业产品产量、行业产品销量,如智能手机行业对应的行业产品产量即为智能手机产量。Among them, financial data may include the target company's operating costs, cash flow data, corporate assets, etc.; capital market data may include the target company's stock price, capital flow, price-earnings ratio, market value, etc.; corporate public opinion enthusiasm may include the target company's operations Good/bad news in the field (for example, good news will increase the popularity of corporate public opinion, while good news will reduce the public opinion enthusiasm of the company), brokerage evaluations (for example, positive comments will increase corporate public opinion enthusiasm, and negative comments will reduce corporate public opinion enthusiasm), Market expectations (for example, if the market expectations are met, the popularity of corporate public opinion will increase, and if market expectations are not met, the popularity of corporate public opinions will be reduced), the search volume of the target company (the higher the search volume, the higher the public opinion enthusiasm of the company), etc.; The macro data can include industry GDP (Gross Domestic Product), industrial added value, etc. For example, if the target company belongs to the manufacturing industry, the industry GDP is the manufacturing GDP; the industry data corresponding to the industry to which the target company belongs can include industry products. Output, industry product sales, such as the industry product output corresponding to the smartphone industry is the smartphone output.
需要说明的是,GDP、工业增加值等是宏观经济研究分析的重要指标/指数。It should be noted that GDP, industrial added value, etc. are important indicators/indices for macroeconomic research and analysis.
由此可见,终端所采集的企业数据,都是与目标企业的企业营收相关或能影响企业营 收的数据。应当理解的是,企业数据表现良好,则影响企业营收正增长,企业数据若表现不好则会导致企业营收负增长,因此预测企业营收趋势的过程,即是分析企业数据的表现情况的过程。It can be seen that the enterprise data collected by the terminal is all data related to or affecting the corporate revenue of the target company. It should be understood that the good performance of corporate data will affect the positive growth of corporate revenue, and the poor performance of corporate data will lead to negative growth of corporate revenue. Therefore, the process of predicting corporate revenue trends is to analyze the performance of corporate data. process.
可选的,终端通过分析企业数据的数据类型,为每类企业数据配置有与之对应的维度,即目标企业的每个维度,均根据该维度对应的企业数据的类型确定(即每一类企业数据对应一个维度)。例如,终端通过分析目标企业的主营业务结构(用于查询相应的宏观数据)、上下游产业环节(用于查询相应的产业数据)、财务经营状况(用于获取财务数据)、二级市场交易情况(用于获取资本市场数据)以及市场舆情关注度(用于获取企业舆情热度)等,构建多维度库。Optionally, the terminal configures a corresponding dimension for each type of enterprise data by analyzing the data type of the enterprise data, that is, each dimension of the target enterprise is determined according to the type of enterprise data corresponding to the dimension (that is, each type of enterprise data). Enterprise data corresponds to one dimension). For example, the terminal analyzes the main business structure of the target company (for querying corresponding macro data), upstream and downstream industrial links (for querying corresponding industrial data), financial operation status (for obtaining financial data), secondary market The transaction status (used to obtain capital market data) and the attention of market public opinion (used to obtain the popularity of corporate public opinion), etc., build a multi-dimensional database.
可选的,终端在获取企业数据时,可以是通过关键词提取的方式,从目标企业的企业财报及企业研报中抽取关于企业业务结构及主要产品的描述,再通过业务关键词对数据库中的维度进行关联匹配构建相关维度体系。此处关键词提取可以是采用传统的textrank算法,首先通过规则定位解析企业业务经营在财务报表中的重要文段,拆解出企业的主要产品和近期经营热点的描述文本,通过传统的textrank算法提取关键词,再通过规则矫正(如词频,顺序定位)确定企业业务经营及产业环节关键词,最后结合企业所处行业确定目标企业每个维度对应的关键词。Optionally, when the terminal obtains the enterprise data, it can extract the descriptions about the business structure and main products of the enterprise from the enterprise financial report and enterprise research report of the target enterprise by means of keyword extraction, and then use the business keywords to compare the data in the database. The relevant dimensions are correlated and matched to construct a related dimension system. The keyword extraction here can use the traditional textrank algorithm. First, the important texts of the company's business operations in the financial statements are analyzed through the rules, and the descriptive texts of the company's main products and recent business hotspots are disassembled. Through the traditional textrank algorithm Extract keywords, then correct the keywords through rules (such as word frequency, sequence positioning) to determine the keywords of the enterprise's business operations and industrial links, and finally determine the keywords corresponding to each dimension of the target enterprise based on the industry in which the enterprise is located.
然后终端根据每个维度对应的关键词,利用爬虫脚本从每个维度相关的资讯信息中抓取该维度对应的企业数据。例如,对于资本市场数据,则可以从目标企业在交易所公示的企业信息抓取得到;企业舆情热度则可以从券商研报中抓取;财务数据可以从目标企业的财务报表中抓取;宏观数据和产业数据则可以从国家权威机构公示的经济信息中抓取。Then, according to the keywords corresponding to each dimension, the terminal uses the crawler script to capture the enterprise data corresponding to the dimension from the information related to each dimension. For example, for capital market data, it can be obtained from the corporate information published by the target company on the exchange; the public opinion of the company can be captured from the research reports of securities companies; financial data can be captured from the financial statements of the target company; macroscopic Data and industrial data can be captured from economic information published by national authorities.
可选的,终端可以是将财务数据对应的维度记为第一维度(或称财务指标)、将资本市场数据对应的维度记为第二维度(或称资本指标)、将企业舆情热度对应的维度记为第三维度(或称舆情指标)、将宏观数据对应的维度记为第四维度(或称宏观指标),以及将产业数据对应的维度记为第五维度(或称产业指标)。Optionally, the terminal may record the dimension corresponding to the financial data as the first dimension (or financial indicator), record the dimension corresponding to the capital market data as the second dimension (or capital indicator), and record the dimension corresponding to the public opinion of the enterprise. The dimension is recorded as the third dimension (or public opinion index), the dimension corresponding to macro data is recorded as the fourth dimension (or macro index), and the dimension corresponding to industrial data is recorded as the fifth dimension (or industry index).
如步骤S20所述:终端可以只通过爬虫脚本抓取特定的企业数据,也可以是在抓取到大量的企业数据后,先对企业数据进行筛选,筛选过后的企业数据中的各因子数据,即加入到后续的分析过程中。As described in step S20: the terminal may only capture specific enterprise data through the crawler script, or after capturing a large amount of enterprise data, it may first filter the enterprise data, and then filter each factor data in the enterprise data, that is added to the subsequent analysis process.
可选的,终端获取到的企业数据中,每一维度的企业数据包括至少一类因子数据,但一般会包括多个类型的因子数据。例如,财务数据中可以包括目标企业的营业成本、现金流数据、企业资产等因子数据。Optionally, in the enterprise data acquired by the terminal, the enterprise data of each dimension includes at least one type of factor data, but generally includes multiple types of factor data. For example, the financial data may include factor data such as operating costs, cash flow data, and corporate assets of the target company.
可选的,终端在获取企业数据时,针对任一因子数据,不仅获取该因子数据当前的数值,还会获取该因子数据在过往多个历史时段的数值。Optionally, when the terminal acquires enterprise data, for any factor data, it not only acquires the current value of the factor data, but also acquires the value of the factor data in multiple past historical periods.
其中,所述目标时段表征为当前预测的目标企业的营收趋势对应的时段,可以是当前时段(或当前时间点)之后的未来时段,而针对每个时段(包括目标时段、当前时段和历史时段)的时长划分,可以根据实际情况需要设置,如一个月、一个季度等,以下以各时段时长为一个季度为例进行说明。Wherein, the target period is characterized as the period corresponding to the currently predicted revenue trend of the target company, which may be a future period after the current period (or the current time point), and for each period (including the target period, the current period and the historical period) The time division of the time period) can be set according to the actual situation, such as one month, one quarter, etc. The following description takes the length of each time period as one quarter as an example.
可选的,终端在获取到任一因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段(包括当前时段和历史时段)的具体数值时,则可以计算因子数据在每个时段(除了目标时段)的数值变化率(根据相邻的前后两个时段的具体数值计算得到),作为第一变化率。Optionally, when the terminal obtains the specific values of any factor data in multiple time periods before the target time period (including the current time period and the historical time period), it can calculate the numerical value change of the factor data in each time period (except the target time period). rate (calculated according to the specific values of the adjacent two time periods before and after), as the first rate of change.
一般来说,每个行业都有其相应的经济周期(如房地产行业经济周期为2-3年、制造业经济周期为半年至一年),因此,终端可以根据目标企业所属的行业确定目标企业对应的行业经济周期,然后进一步确定目标时段之前的至少一个完整的行业经济周期。应当理解的是,目标时段属于当前行业经济周期之中,此处确定的即为当前行业经济周期之前的行业经济周期。Generally speaking, each industry has its corresponding economic cycle (for example, the economic cycle of the real estate industry is 2-3 years, and the economic cycle of the manufacturing industry is half a year to one year). Therefore, the terminal can determine the target company according to the industry to which the target company belongs. The corresponding industry economic cycle, and then further determine at least one complete industry economic cycle before the target period. It should be understood that the target period belongs to the current industry economic cycle, and what is determined here is the industry economic cycle before the current industry economic cycle.
可选的,终端根据因子数据在至少一个行业经济周期内各时段对应的第一变化率,分 析在同一行业经济周期内各时段的第一变化率之间的第一数值关系。其中,终端所分析的行业经济周期越多,得到的同一因子数据的第一变化率在各时段之间的第一数值关系越准确。Optionally, the terminal analyzes the first numerical relationship between the first rate of change of each time period in the same industry economic cycle according to the first rate of change of the factor data corresponding to each time period in at least one industry economic cycle. Wherein, the more industry economic cycles analyzed by the terminal, the more accurate the first numerical relationship between the first change rates of the same factor data obtained between each time period.
然后,终端根据因子数据在当前行业经济周期中除目标时段之外的其他时段对应的第一变化率,以及第一变化率之间的第一数值关系,即可预测得到该因子数据在目标时段内的第二变化率。应当理解的是,当前行业经济周期中除目标时段之外的其他时段,其时间节点在目标时段之前。需要说明的是,第一变化率为实际值,而第二变化率为预测值。Then, the terminal can predict that the factor data will be in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in the current industry economic cycle other than the target period and the first numerical relationship between the first rate of change The second rate of change in . It should be understood that for other time periods in the current industry economic cycle other than the target time period, the time nodes are before the target time period. It should be noted that the first change rate is an actual value, and the second change rate is a predicted value.
例如,根据分析得到的某一因子数据在去年前三季度对应的第一变化率,与去年第四季度对应的第一变化率之间的第一数值关系后(例如得到第四季度增长率为前三季度增长率总和的50%这样一个数值关系),即可根据该第一数值关系与今年前三季度的第一变化率,预测得到今年第四季度的第二变化率(例如计算今年前三季度实际增长率总和的50%即为第二变化率)。应当理解的是,实际预测因子数据在目标时段的第二变化率的过程更为复杂,此处仅作示例性说明。For example, after the first numerical relationship between the first rate of change corresponding to the first three quarters of last year and the first rate of change corresponding to the fourth quarter of last year for a certain factor data obtained through analysis (for example, the growth rate in the fourth quarter is obtained as 50% of the total growth rate in the first three quarters), you can predict the second rate of change in the fourth quarter of this year based on the first numerical relationship and the first rate of change in the first three quarters of this year (for example, calculating the rate of change in the first three quarters of this year) 50% of the total real growth rate in the third quarter is the second rate of change). It should be understood that the process of the second rate of change of the actual predictor data in the target period is more complicated, which is only exemplified here.
可选的,若目标时段刚好为当前行业经济周期的第一个时段,则终端也可以是根据因子数据在之前多个行业经济周期内各时段的第一变化率,分析每个行业经济周期内的第一变化率,与该行业经济周期的下一个行业经济周期的第一个时段之间的第二数值关系(例如得到某一因子数据在下一行业经济周期的第一时段的增长率为上一行业经济周期的增长率总和的10%这样一个数值关系),并利用分析得到的第二数值关系,以及当前行业经济周期的上一个行业经济周期内各时段的第一变化率,即可预测得到该因子数据在目标时段内的第二变化率(例如计算当前行业经济周期的上一行业经济周期的增长率总和的10%即为第二变化率)。Optionally, if the target period happens to be the first period of the current industry economic cycle, the terminal can also analyze the economic cycle of each industry based on the first rate of change of the factor data in each period of previous industry economic cycles. The first rate of change of , and the second numerical relationship between the first period of the next industrial economic cycle of the industry economic cycle (for example, the growth rate of a certain factor data in the first period of the next industrial economic cycle is obtained as A numerical relationship of 10% of the sum of the growth rate of an industry economic cycle), and using the second numerical relationship obtained from the analysis, and the first rate of change of each period in the previous industry economic cycle of the current industry economic cycle, we can predict Obtain the second rate of change of the factor data in the target period (for example, the second rate of change is calculated as 10% of the sum of the growth rates of the previous industry economic cycle in the current industry economic cycle).
基于此,终端可以根据每类因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测每类因子数据在目标时段的第二变化率。Based on this, the terminal may predict the second rate of change of each type of factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of each type of factor data in multiple periods before the target period.
需要说明的是,第二变化率可为负值,表示为因子数据在目标时段负增长。It should be noted that the second rate of change may be a negative value, which is represented as a negative growth of the factor data during the target period.
如步骤S30所述:终端在得到每个维度对应的企业数据中所有因子数据的第二变化率后,即可基于此确定每个维度对应的荣枯指数。其中,荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势。As described in step S30: after obtaining the second rate of change of all factor data in the enterprise data corresponding to each dimension, the terminal can determine the prosperity and decline index corresponding to each dimension based on this. Wherein, the prosperity and decline index is used to determine the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend.
可选的,设定一基准值(如取值50),当荣枯指数大于该基准值时,则表示变化趋势为上升趋势,当荣枯指数小于该基准值时,则表示变化趋势为下降趋势。可见,荣枯指数的概念与荣枯线相当。需要说明的是,荣枯线为采购经理指数(Purchasing Managers'Index,PMI)和企业家信心指数的临界值,可反映宏观经济的景气状况、发展变化趋势和企业家对宏观经济的看法与信心。PMI数值通常以50%作为经济强弱的分界点,而企业家信心指数以100%作为荣枯线。Optionally, set a benchmark value (such as a value of 50), when the prosperity and decline index is greater than the benchmark value, it means that the change trend is an upward trend, and when the prosperity and decline index is less than the benchmark value, it means that the change trend is a downward trend trend. It can be seen that the concept of prosperity and decline index is equivalent to the line of prosperity and decline. It should be noted that the line of prosperity and decline is the critical value of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the Entrepreneur Confidence Index, which can reflect the macroeconomic prosperity, development trends, and entrepreneurs' views and confidence in the macroeconomy. . The PMI value usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength, while the entrepreneur confidence index takes 100% as the line of prosperity and decline.
可选的,终端预先为每类因子数据配置有其对应的第一权重,第一权重的确定方式可以根据因子数据与目标企业的企业营收之间的相关系数确定,也可以是由相关工程师预先设置并输入终端的。其中,所述相关系数是统计学中的统计指标,是研究两个变量之间线性相关关系密切程度的统计指标。Optionally, the terminal is pre-configured with its corresponding first weight for each type of factor data, and the method for determining the first weight can be determined according to the correlation coefficient between the factor data and the target company's corporate revenue, or it can be determined by a relevant engineer. pre-set and type in the terminal's. The correlation coefficient is a statistical index in statistics, and is a statistical index for studying the closeness of the linear correlation between two variables.
可选的,每个维度对应的荣枯指数计算公式如下:Optionally, the calculation formula of the prosperity and decline index corresponding to each dimension is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2021084531-appb-000001
Figure PCTCN2021084531-appb-000001
其中,n为该维度对应的企业数据中所有因子数据的数量,X i为因子数据对应的第二变化率,W i为因子数据对应的第一权重。且当Y>50时,表示荣枯指数为上升趋势;当Y<50时,表示荣枯指数为下降趋势。 Among them, n is the number of all factor data in the enterprise data corresponding to the dimension, Xi is the second rate of change corresponding to the factor data, and Wi is the first weight corresponding to the factor data. And when Y>50, it means that the expansion and contraction index is an upward trend; when Y<50, it means that the expansion and contraction index is a downward trend.
可选的,基于荣枯指数的计算公式,终端可以分别计算得到各个维度对应的荣枯指数。Optionally, based on the calculation formula of the prosperity and decline index, the terminal can separately calculate and obtain the prosperity and decline index corresponding to each dimension.
如步骤S40所述:终端获取每个维度指数对应的第二权重,然后根据所有维度指数对应的荣枯指数和第二权重,预测目标企业在目标时段的营收趋势(即企业营业收入趋势)。As described in step S40: the terminal obtains the second weight corresponding to each dimension index, and then predicts the revenue trend of the target company in the target period (ie, the company's operating income trend) according to the prosperity and decline indices and the second weight corresponding to all dimension indices. .
其中,每个维度指数对应的第二权重,可以是根据该维度指数与目标企业的企业营收之间的相关系数确定的,且呈正相关的相关系数越大,则第二权重越大(或呈负相关的相关系数越小,则第二权重越大);第二权重也可以是由相关工程师考虑每个维度指数对企业营收的影响程度后,预先设置并输入终端的预设权重,例如设置财务维度对应的第二权重为0.3、设置宏观维度对应的第二权重为0.25、设置产业维度对应的第二权重为0.15、设置资本维度对应的第二权重为0.2、设置舆情维度对应的第二权重为0.1。The second weight corresponding to each dimension index may be determined according to the correlation coefficient between the dimension index and the corporate revenue of the target enterprise, and the greater the positive correlation coefficient, the greater the second weight (or The smaller the correlation coefficient that is negatively correlated, the larger the second weight); the second weight can also be preset by the relevant engineer after considering the impact of each dimension index on the company's revenue, and input the preset weight of the terminal, For example, set the second weight corresponding to the financial dimension to 0.3, set the second weight corresponding to the macro dimension to 0.25, set the second weight corresponding to the industry dimension to 0.15, set the second weight corresponding to the capital dimension to 0.2, and set the second weight corresponding to the public opinion dimension to 0.2. The second weight is 0.1.
可选的,终端可以是将每个维度在目标时段预测得到的荣枯指数作为第一荣枯指数,并获取目标时段前一时段实际计算得到的荣枯指数作为第二荣枯指数,然后计算第一荣枯指数相比于第二荣枯指数的变化率,得到每个维度对应的第三变化率(第三变化率可为负数,即表示目标时段中的荣枯指数,较上一时段有所减小)。Optionally, the terminal may use the prosperity and decline index predicted by each dimension in the target period as the first prosperity and decline index, and obtain the prosperity and decline index actually calculated in the previous period of the target period as the second prosperity and decline index, and then calculate Compared with the change rate of the second prosperity and decline index, the third change rate corresponding to each dimension is obtained (the third change rate can be a negative number, which means that the prosperity and decline index in the target period is higher than that of the previous period. decreased).
应当理解的是,由于目标时段相当于未来的时段,而目标时段之前的时段是已发生的时段,因此在目标时段之前的时段中,各项用于计算第二荣枯指数的数据都是已知的(即直接将相关因子数据在该时段内的第一变化率代入荣枯指数计算公式进行计算即可,无需采用预测的第二变化率),进而可以直接计算得到目标时段之前的时段对应的第二荣枯指数。It should be understood that, since the target period is equivalent to the future period, and the period before the target period is the period that has already occurred, in the period before the target period, all the data used to calculate the second prosperity and decline index are the ones that have already occurred. (that is, directly substitute the first rate of change of the relevant factor data in this period into the calculation formula of the prosperity and decline index, without using the predicted second rate of change), and then directly calculate the corresponding period before the target period. the second boom-and-bust index.
可选的,目标企业的营收趋势的计算公式如下:Optionally, the formula for calculating the revenue trend of the target company is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2021084531-appb-000002
Figure PCTCN2021084531-appb-000002
其中,N为维度的总数量,O i为维度对应的第三变化率,P i为维度对应的第二权重。且当Q>50时,表示营收趋势为上升趋势;当Q<50时,表示营收趋势为下降趋势。 Among them, N is the total number of dimensions, O i is the third rate of change corresponding to the dimension, and P i is the second weight corresponding to the dimension. And when Q>50, it means that the revenue trend is an upward trend; when Q<50, it means that the revenue trend is a downward trend.
可选的,终端在预测目标企业的营收趋势时,也可以是直接根据所有维度指数对应的荣枯指数和第二权重,进行加权求和计算,得到目标企业的营收趋势。具体计算公式如下:Optionally, when the terminal predicts the revenue trend of the target company, it may also directly perform weighted sum calculation according to the prosperity and decline index and the second weight corresponding to all dimension indices to obtain the revenue trend of the target company. The specific calculation formula is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2021084531-appb-000003
Figure PCTCN2021084531-appb-000003
其中,N为维度的总数量,Y i为维度在目标时段的荣枯指数,P i为维度对应的第二权重。且当Q>50时,表示营收趋势为上升趋势;当Q<50时,表示营收趋势为下降趋势。 Among them, N is the total number of dimensions, Y i is the prosperity and decline index of the dimension in the target period, and P i is the second weight corresponding to the dimension. And when Q>50, it means that the revenue trend is an upward trend; when Q<50, it means that the revenue trend is a downward trend.
在一实施例中,通过考量宏观数据、产业数据、财务数据、资本数据、舆情数据等多个维度,自动获取影响目标企业营收的多维度数据,建立多个量化指标来反映目标企业营收的多维度解释因子,并在此基础上构建目标企业营收的解释体系,从而在提高预测企业营收趋势的效率的同时,提高了预测企业营收趋势的准确率。In one embodiment, by considering multiple dimensions such as macro data, industry data, financial data, capital data, and public opinion data, the multi-dimensional data affecting the target company's revenue is automatically obtained, and multiple quantitative indicators are established to reflect the target company's revenue. Based on the multi-dimensional explanatory factors, an explanation system for the target company's revenue is constructed, so as to improve the efficiency of predicting the company's revenue trend, and at the same time improve the accuracy of predicting the company's revenue trend.
在一实施例中,在上述实施例基础上,In one embodiment, on the basis of the above-mentioned embodiment,
所述根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率的步骤之前,还包括:Before the step of predicting the second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in multiple periods before the target period, the method further includes:
步骤S50、分析每个所述维度中的子数据与所述目标企业的历史营收之间的相关系数,其中,每个所述维度中的数据划分为多类所述子数据;Step S50, analyzing the correlation coefficient between the sub-data in each of the dimensions and the historical revenue of the target company, wherein the data in each of the dimensions is divided into multiple types of the sub-data;
步骤S51、将所述相关系数处于预设数值区间之外的所述子数据作为所述因子数据。Step S51: Use the sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside the preset value range as the factor data.
本实施例中,终端利用爬虫脚本抓取到每个维度对应的企业数据时,企业数据每个维度的数据中,会划分为多类子数据,因此需要对企业数据的子数据进行筛选,以筛选出其中与目标企业的企业营收具有相关性的子数据,并将筛选得到的子数据作为用于后续分析目标企业的营收趋势的因子数据。In this embodiment, when the terminal uses the crawler script to capture the enterprise data corresponding to each dimension, the data in each dimension of the enterprise data will be divided into multiple types of sub-data. The sub-data that is related to the target company's corporate revenue is screened out, and the sub-data obtained by screening is used as factor data for subsequent analysis of the target company's revenue trend.
可选的,终端获取目标企业在目标时段之前的多个时段的企业营收作为历史营收,然后针对企业数据中的每类子数据,同样获取每类子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的数据值,在此基础上对每类子数据与历史营收之间进行相关性分析,以计算每类子数据与历史营收之间的相关系数。Optionally, the terminal obtains the enterprise revenue of the target enterprise in multiple periods before the target period as historical revenue, and then also obtains multiple periods of each type of subdata before the target period for each type of sub-data in the enterprise data. On this basis, the correlation analysis between each type of sub-data and historical revenue is performed to calculate the correlation coefficient between each type of sub-data and historical revenue.
其中,所述相关系数的计算方式可以是采用斯皮尔曼(spearman)相关系数计算方式、皮尔逊相关系数计算方式等。需要说明的是,相关关系是一种非确定性的关系,相关系数是研究变量之间线性相关程度的量。The calculation method of the correlation coefficient may be a calculation method of a Spearman correlation coefficient, a calculation method of a Pearson correlation coefficient, or the like. It should be noted that the correlation is a non-deterministic relationship, and the correlation coefficient is a measure of the degree of linear correlation between the research variables.
一般地,相关系数的值介于-1至1之间,当相关系数取值为0时,表征计算相关系数的两个观测量(此处观测量即为历史营收和企业数据中的任一类子数据)之间不具备相关性;当相关系数大于0时,则表征两个观测量之间呈正相关;当相关系数小于0时,则表征两个观测量之间呈负相关。Generally, the value of the correlation coefficient is between -1 and 1. When the value of the correlation coefficient is 0, it represents the two observational quantities for calculating the correlation coefficient (the observational quantity here is the historical revenue and any data in the enterprise data). There is no correlation between a class of sub-data); when the correlation coefficient is greater than 0, it indicates a positive correlation between the two observations; when the correlation coefficient is less than 0, it indicates a negative correlation between the two observations.
基于此,可以设置预设数值区间(可记为第一区间),并定义相关系数处于预设数值区间内时,则该相关系数对应的两观测量之间不具备相关性;相关系数处于预设数值区间之外时,则该相关系数对应的两观测量之间具备相关性。其中,预设数值区间的区间下限的取值范围为小于或等于0且大于-1,区间上限的取值范围为大于或等于0且小于1。应当理解的是预设数值区间的具体取值可以根据实际情况需要设置,如设置为[-0.3,0.3]Based on this, a preset numerical interval (which can be recorded as the first interval) can be set, and it is defined that when the correlation coefficient is within the preset numerical interval, there is no correlation between the two observations corresponding to the correlation coefficient; When it is set outside the value interval, there is a correlation between the two observations corresponding to the correlation coefficient. Wherein, the value range of the lower limit of the interval of the preset value interval is less than or equal to 0 and greater than -1, and the value range of the upper limit of the interval is greater than or equal to 0 and less than 1. It should be understood that the specific value of the preset value interval can be set according to the actual situation, for example, it is set to [-0.3, 0.3]
可选的,终端在分析得到企业数据中每类子数据与历史营收之间的相关系数后,则进一步检测每类子数据对应的相关系数是否处于预设数值区间内。Optionally, after analyzing and obtaining the correlation coefficient between each type of sub-data in the enterprise data and historical revenue, the terminal further detects whether the correlation coefficient corresponding to each type of sub-data is within a preset value range.
可选的,当终端检测到任一类子数据对应的相关系数处于预设数值区间之外时,则将该类子数据作为因子数据,以将其用于计算该企业数据对应的维度的荣枯指数,即将因子数据应用于后续分析目标企业的营收趋势的过程中。Optionally, when the terminal detects that the correlation coefficient corresponding to any type of sub-data is outside the preset numerical range, then the type of sub-data is used as factor data to calculate the honor of the dimension corresponding to the enterprise data. Dry index, that is, applying factor data to the subsequent analysis of the target company's revenue trend.
可选的,当终端检测到任一类子数据对应的相关系数处于预设数值区间之内时,则可以是将该类子数据剔除,不再将该类子数据用于计算该企业数据对应的维度的荣枯指数,即不再将该类子数据应用于对营收趋势的分析中。Optionally, when the terminal detects that the correlation coefficient corresponding to any type of sub-data is within the preset value range, it may remove this type of sub-data, and no longer use this type of sub-data to calculate the corresponding enterprise data. The growth and decline index of the dimension is no longer used in the analysis of revenue trends.
当然,终端可以根据相关系数的计算原理和预设数值区间建立因子筛选模型,只需将每类子数据在多个时段的数据值和历史营收输入到因子筛选模型中,即可从中筛选得到的因子数据。Of course, the terminal can establish a factor screening model according to the calculation principle of the correlation coefficient and the preset value interval. It only needs to input the data value and historical revenue of each type of sub-data in multiple time periods into the factor screening model, and then the filter can be obtained. factor data.
这样,实现了自动分析企业数据与企业营收之间的相关性,并得到相关性强的企业数据应用至企业营收趋势的分析过程中,进而提高了预测企业营收趋势的准确率。In this way, the correlation between corporate data and corporate revenue is automatically analyzed, and highly correlated corporate data is obtained and applied to the analysis process of corporate revenue trends, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting corporate revenue trends.
进一步地,虽然通过分析相关系数可以得到与企业营收具有一定关联性的因子数据,且这些因子数据中存在一些因子数据(记为第一因子数据)与企业营收是具有强关联性的,但不排除其中有些因子数据(记为第二因子数据)只是因为与第一因子数据具有强关联性,而导致第二因子数据在数值变化上看似与企业营收具有关联性,但这类第二因子数据实质与企业营收不存在关联性或关联性弱。例如第一因子数据与企业营收呈正相关,同时也与第二因子数据呈正相关,那么就会导致第二因子数据表面上与企业营收也呈正相关,但实际上若是忽略了第一因子数据的影响,可能第二因子数据与企业营收之间就并不具备必然的相关性。因此,若是进一步剔除因子数据中的第二因子数据,即可进一步提高最终预测得到的企业营收趋势的准确率。Further, although the factor data that has a certain correlation with the company's revenue can be obtained by analyzing the correlation coefficient, and there are some factor data (referred to as the first factor data) in these factor data that are strongly correlated with the company's revenue, However, it cannot be ruled out that some of the factor data (referred to as the second factor data) are only because of their strong correlation with the first factor data, so that the numerical changes of the second factor data seem to be related to the company's revenue. There is no or weak correlation between the second factor data and the company's revenue. For example, the first factor data is positively correlated with the company's revenue, and it is also positively correlated with the second factor data, then the second factor data will appear to be positively correlated with the company's revenue, but in fact, if the first factor data is ignored may not have a necessary correlation between the second factor data and corporate revenue. Therefore, if the second factor data in the factor data is further eliminated, the accuracy of the final predicted corporate revenue trend can be further improved.
可选的,终端可以先从因子数据中确定第一因子数据,并将第一因子数据之外的其他因子数据作为第二因子数据。Optionally, the terminal may first determine the first factor data from the factor data, and use other factor data other than the first factor data as the second factor data.
可选的,第一因子数据可以是相关工程师预先设定的预设因子数据,终端只需检测因子数据是否属于预设因子数据,若是则为第一因子数据,若否则为第二因子数据。Optionally, the first factor data may be preset factor data preset by a relevant engineer, and the terminal only needs to detect whether the factor data belongs to the preset factor data, if so, it is the first factor data, and if not, it is the second factor data.
可选的,终端也可以是根据因子数据与历史营收之间的相关系数确定第一因子数据,具体检测因子数据对应的相关系数是否处于第二区间内(即与第一区间不同的预设数值区间),若是则为第一因子数据,若否则为第二因子数据。其中,第二区间用于衡量因子数 据与历史营收之间的相关性强度,其具体取值范围可以根据实际情况需要设置,如设置为[-1,-0.6]∪[0.6,1]。Optionally, the terminal may also determine the first factor data according to the correlation coefficient between the factor data and historical revenue, and specifically detect whether the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data is within the second interval (that is, a preset different from the first interval). Numerical interval), if it is the first factor data, otherwise it is the second factor data. Among them, the second interval is used to measure the correlation strength between factor data and historical revenue, and its specific value range can be set according to actual needs, such as [-1,-0.6]∪[0.6,1].
进一步地,终端确定目标时段之前的时段实际计算得到的第二荣枯指数,然后使用第一因子数据计算该时段的第三荣枯指数,并确定第三荣枯指数与第二荣枯指数之间的第一差值。Further, the terminal determines the second expansion and contraction index actually calculated in the period before the target period, and then uses the first factor data to calculate the third expansion and contraction index for the period, and determines the difference between the third expansion and contraction index and the second expansion and contraction index. The first difference between .
然后,终端将第二因子数据逐个加入到第一因子数据中计算该时段的第四荣枯指数,并确定第四荣枯指数与第二荣枯指数之间的第二差值;再进一步将第一差值与第二差值作比较,若检测到第二差值小于第一差值,则表明用于计算该第四荣枯指数的第二因子数据对于提高计算荣枯指数的准确率有帮助,即表明该第二因子数据与企业营收是具有关联性的,因此可以将该第二因子数据更新为第一因子数据;若检测到第二差值大于或等于第一差值,则表明用于计算该第四荣枯指数的第二因子数据对于提高计算荣枯指数的准确率无帮助,即表明该第二因子数据与企业营收之间可能不具备关联性,因此将该第二因子数据作为待剔除数据。Then, the terminal adds the second factor data to the first factor data one by one to calculate the fourth expansion and contraction index of the period, and determines the second difference between the fourth expansion and contraction index and the second expansion and contraction index; The first difference is compared with the second difference, and if it is detected that the second difference is smaller than the first difference, it indicates that the second factor data used to calculate the fourth prosperity and decline index is useful for improving the accuracy of calculating the prosperity and decline index. Helpful, it means that the second factor data is related to the company's revenue, so the second factor data can be updated to the first factor data; if it is detected that the second difference is greater than or equal to the first difference, It shows that the second factor data used to calculate the fourth prosperity and decline index is not helpful for improving the accuracy of calculating the prosperity and decline index, which means that the second factor data may not be related to the company's revenue. The second factor data is used as the data to be excluded.
可选的,终端在确定因子数据中的待剔除数据后,则将其中待剔除数据对应的因子数据剔除,将剩余的因子数据用于计算因子数据所属的企业数据对应的维度的荣枯指数,即将这些因子数据应用于后续分析目标企业的营收趋势的过程中,从而达到进一步提高预测企业营收趋势的准确率的目的。Optionally, after determining the data to be excluded in the factor data, the terminal removes the factor data corresponding to the data to be excluded, and uses the remaining factor data to calculate the prosperity and decline index of the dimension corresponding to the enterprise data to which the factor data belongs, That is, these factor data are applied to the process of subsequent analysis of the target company's revenue trend, so as to further improve the accuracy of predicting the company's revenue trend.
可选的,终端在将待剔除数据进行剔除之前还可以将待剔除数据作进一步筛选。其在,将因子数据与历史营收之间的相关系数记为第一相关系数,然后分别确定待剔除数据与第一因子数据之间的相关系数(记为第二相关系数),以基于此分析待剔除数据是否存在与之相关性强的第一因子数据。Optionally, the terminal may further filter the data to be rejected before removing the data to be rejected. Here, the correlation coefficient between the factor data and historical revenue is recorded as the first correlation coefficient, and then the correlation coefficient between the data to be excluded and the first factor data (referred to as the second correlation coefficient) is determined respectively, based on this Analyze whether the data to be excluded has the first factor data with strong correlation with it.
可选的,当终端检测到待剔除数据对应的第二相关系数中,存在处于第三区间内的第二相关系数,即判定该待剔除数据存在与之相关性强的第一因子数据;否则,则判定该待剔除数据不存在与之相关性强的第一因子数据。其中,所述第三区间用于衡量待剔除数据与第一因子数据之间的相关性强度,其具体取值范围可以根据实际情况需要设置,如设置为[-1,-0.7]∪[0.7,1]。Optionally, when the terminal detects that in the second correlation coefficient corresponding to the data to be excluded, there is a second correlation coefficient within the third interval, that is, it is determined that the data to be excluded has first factor data with strong correlation with it; otherwise , then it is determined that there is no first factor data with strong correlation with the data to be excluded. Among them, the third interval is used to measure the correlation strength between the data to be excluded and the first factor data, and its specific value range can be set according to the actual situation, for example, it is set to [-1,-0.7]∪[0.7 ,1].
可选的,当终端检测到待剔除数据不存在与之相关性强的第一因子数据时,即表明该待剔除数据与企业营收是具有关联性的(因为其对应的第二相关指数并未影响到其对应的第一相关指数),则将该待剔除数据更变为第一因子数据,不再将其剔除;当终端检测到待剔除数据存在与之相关性强的第一因子数据时,即表明该待剔除数据与企业营收不具备关联性(因为其对应的第一相关指数是受到了其对应的第二相关指数的影响,才使得第一相关指数未处于第一区间内),因此可以将该待剔除数据就此剔除。Optionally, when the terminal detects that the data to be excluded does not have the first factor data that is strongly correlated with it, it indicates that the data to be excluded is related to the company's revenue (because its corresponding second correlation index is not does not affect its corresponding first correlation index), then the data to be excluded is changed to the first factor data, and it is no longer excluded; when the terminal detects that the data to be excluded has first factor data with strong correlation with it , it means that the data to be excluded has no correlation with the company’s revenue (because its corresponding first correlation index is affected by its corresponding second correlation index, so that the first correlation index is not within the first interval ), so the to-be-excluded data can be eliminated.
这样,实现了自动剔除与企业营收相关性弱的企业数据,进而提高了利用企业数据预测企业营收趋势的准确率。In this way, the enterprise data with weak correlation with the enterprise's revenue is automatically eliminated, thereby improving the accuracy of using the enterprise data to predict the enterprise's revenue trend.
在一实施例中,在上述实施例基础上,所述将所述相关系数处于预设数值区间之外的所述子数据作为所述因子数据的步骤之后,还包括:In an embodiment, based on the above-mentioned embodiment, after the step of using the sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside the preset value range as the factor data, the method further includes:
步骤S52、根据所述因子数据对应的相关系数,确定所述因子数据的第一权重;Step S52, determining the first weight of the factor data according to the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data;
所述根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数的步骤包括:The step of determining, according to the second rate of change of all factor data corresponding to each of the dimensions, the prosperity and decline index of each of the dimensions in the target period includes:
步骤S31、根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率和所述第一权重,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数。Step S31 , according to the second change rate and the first weight of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, determine the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period.
本实施例中,终端在对每类因子数据与历史营收之间进行相关性分析,并得到每类因子数据与历史营收之间的相关系数。In this embodiment, the terminal performs correlation analysis between each type of factor data and historical revenue, and obtains a correlation coefficient between each type of factor data and historical revenue.
可选的,当因子数据对应的相关系数为正值时,则终端根据相关系数确定因子数据对 应的第一权重时,因子数据对应的相关系数越大,确定得到的第一权重越大。Optionally, when the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data is a positive value, when the terminal determines the first weight corresponding to the factor data according to the correlation coefficient, the larger the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data, the larger the determined first weight.
可选的,当因子数据对应的相关系数为负值时,则终端根据相关系数确定因子数据对应的第一权重时,因子数据对应的相关系数越小,确定得到的第一权重越大。Optionally, when the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data is a negative value, when the terminal determines the first weight corresponding to the factor data according to the correlation coefficient, the smaller the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data, the larger the determined first weight.
进一步地,终端在确定得到每个维度对应的因子数据的第二变化率和第一权重后,则根据每个维度对应的所有因子数据的第二变化率和第一权重,计算每个维度对应的荣枯指数。每个维度对应的荣枯指数计算公式如下:Further, after the terminal determines to obtain the second rate of change and the first weight of the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the terminal calculates the corresponding value of each dimension according to the second rate of change and the first weight of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension. the boom and bust index. The calculation formula of the prosperity and decline index corresponding to each dimension is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2021084531-appb-000004
Figure PCTCN2021084531-appb-000004
其中,n为该维度对应的企业数据中所有因子数据的数量,X i为因子数据对应的第二变化率,W i为因子数据对应的第一权重。且当Y>50时,表示荣枯指数为上升趋势;当Y<50时,表示荣枯指数为下降趋势。 Among them, n is the number of all factor data in the enterprise data corresponding to the dimension, Xi is the second rate of change corresponding to the factor data, and Wi is the first weight corresponding to the factor data. And when Y>50, it means that the expansion and contraction index is an upward trend; when Y<50, it means that the expansion and contraction index is a downward trend.
这样,通过为与企业营收相关程度高的因子数据分别更大的权重,使得基于利用因子数据计算得到的荣枯指数确定营收趋势时,确定得到的营收趋势更为准确。In this way, by assigning larger weights to the factor data with a high degree of correlation with the company's revenue, when determining the revenue trend based on the prosperity and decline index calculated by using the factor data, the determined revenue trend is more accurate.
在一实施例中,在上述实施例基础上,所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势的步骤之前,还包括:In one embodiment, on the basis of the above-mentioned embodiment, before the step of predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the method further includes:
步骤S60、根据预设规则确定所述维度对应的第二权重;Step S60, determining the second weight corresponding to the dimension according to a preset rule;
所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势的步骤包括:The step of predicting the revenue trend of the target company in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions includes:
步骤S41、根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数和所述第二权重,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。Step S41 , predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline index and the second weight corresponding to all the dimensions.
本实施例中,终端在确定营收趋势之前,需要先确定每个维度对应的第二权重。其中,终端可以是根据预设规则确定每个维度对应的第二权重。In this embodiment, before determining the revenue trend, the terminal needs to determine the second weight corresponding to each dimension first. The terminal may determine the second weight corresponding to each dimension according to a preset rule.
可选的,所述预设规则包括以下任一个:Optionally, the preset rules include any of the following:
第一预设规则:终端根据所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数和历史预测荣枯指数,确定所述维度对应的第一准确率,并根据所述第一准确率确定所述第二权重,其中,所述第一准确率越高,所述第二权重越大;或者,The first preset rule: the terminal determines the first accuracy rate corresponding to the dimension according to the historical actual expansion and contraction index and the historical predicted expansion index corresponding to the dimension, and determines the second weight according to the first accuracy rate , where the higher the first accuracy, the higher the second weight; or,
第二预设规则:终端根据所述维度的数量生成多种权重组合,以及基于所述权重组合和各个所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数确定历史预测营收趋势,并根据所述历史预测营收趋势和历史实际营收趋势确定所述权重组合对应的第二准确率,根据所述第二准确率最高的权重组合确定各个所述维度对应的第二权重;或者,Second preset rule: the terminal generates multiple weight combinations according to the number of the dimensions, and determines the historically predicted revenue trend based on the weight combination and the historical actual prosperity and decline index corresponding to each of the dimensions, and according to the historical forecast The revenue trend and the historical actual revenue trend determine the second accuracy rate corresponding to the weight combination, and determine the second weight corresponding to each of the dimensions according to the weight combination with the highest second accuracy rate; or,
第三预设规则:终端根据目标企业所属的行业,利用大数据分析各维度对该行业的营收的关联程度,并根据每个维度对应的关联程度确定每个维度对应的第二权重,其中,所述关联程度越大,所述第二权重越大。例如,对于房地产行业,由于房地产行业受宏观经济因素影响较大,因此可以给房地产企业的宏观指标分配较高的权重。The third preset rule: The terminal uses big data to analyze the degree of correlation between the revenue of each dimension according to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and determines the second weight corresponding to each dimension according to the degree of correlation corresponding to each dimension, wherein , the greater the degree of association, the greater the second weight. For example, for the real estate industry, since the real estate industry is greatly influenced by macroeconomic factors, a higher weight can be assigned to the macro indicators of real estate companies.
可选的,基于第一预设规则,终端可以是先利用每个维度对应的因子数据,计算每个维度在目标时段之前的任一时段(记为第二时段)的历史实际荣枯指数,并根据第二时段之前的时段(记为第三时段)的因子数据计算第二时段的历史预测荣枯指数。再根据每个维度在第二时段的历史预测荣枯指数和历史实际荣枯指数之间的偏差值,计算每个维度对应的第一准确率(第一准确率即为计算得到的荣枯指数的准确率)。其中,维度对应的第一准确率越高,即表明历史预测荣枯指数越接近历史实际荣枯指数,因此,当维度对应的第一准确率越高,则可以为该维度分配更大的第二权重,这样当后续利用该维度对应的荣枯指数确定得到的营收趋势也就更准确。Optionally, based on the first preset rule, the terminal may first use the factor data corresponding to each dimension to calculate the historical actual prosperity and decline index of each dimension in any period before the target period (denoted as the second period), And according to the factor data of the period before the second period (denoted as the third period), the historical forecast prosperity and decline index of the second period is calculated. Then, according to the deviation between the historically predicted prosperity and decline index and the historical actual prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the second period, the first accuracy rate corresponding to each dimension is calculated (the first accuracy rate is the calculated prosperity and decline index). accuracy). Among them, the higher the first accuracy rate corresponding to the dimension, the closer the historical forecast prosperity and decline index is to the historical actual prosperity and decline index. Therefore, when the first accuracy rate corresponding to a dimension is higher, a larger first accuracy rate can be assigned to this dimension. Two weights, so that the revenue trend determined by the subsequent rise and fall index corresponding to this dimension will be more accurate.
应当理解的是,由于目标时段相当于未来的时段,而目标时段之前的时段是已发生的 时段,因此在目标时段之前的时段中,各项用于计算历史实际荣枯指数的数据都是已知的,而要计算该时段的历史预测荣枯指数,只需利用该时段之前的因子数据即可。It should be understood that, since the target period is equivalent to the future period, and the period before the target period is the period that has occurred, in the period before the target period, the data used to calculate the historical actual prosperity and decline index are Knowing that, and to calculate the historical forecast prosperity and decline index of this period, we only need to use the factor data before this period.
可选的,基于第二预设规则,终端根据所述维度的数量生成多种权重组合,每种权重组合中设置有各维度对应的第二权重。同时获取目标时段之前的任一时段(记为第二时段)中的各个所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数,以及获取第二时段对应的历史实际营收趋势。然后根据各个所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数,以及营收趋势计算公式,计算不同权重组合中确定得到的历史预测营收趋势。应当理解的是,每种权重组合均可计算得到一种历史预测营收趋势。Optionally, based on the second preset rule, the terminal generates multiple weight combinations according to the number of dimensions, and each weight combination is set with a second weight corresponding to each dimension. At the same time, the actual historical prosperity and decline index corresponding to each dimension in any period before the target period (referred to as the second period) is obtained, and the historical actual revenue trend corresponding to the second period is obtained. Then, according to the historical actual growth and decline index corresponding to each of the dimensions, and the revenue trend calculation formula, the historical forecast revenue trend determined in different weight combinations is calculated. It should be understood that a historical forecast revenue trend can be calculated for each combination of weights.
然后终端基于每个权重组合对应的历史预测营收趋势,以及历史实际营收趋势,通过分析每个历史预测营收趋势与历史实际营收趋势之间的偏差值,得到每种权重组合对应的第二准确率,其中,第二准确率越高,表明相应的历史预测营收趋势越接近历史实际营收趋势。Then, based on the historical forecasted revenue trend corresponding to each weight combination and the historical actual revenue trend, the terminal analyzes the deviation value between each historical forecasted revenue trend and the historical actual revenue trend to obtain the corresponding value of each weight combination. The second accuracy rate, wherein the higher the second accuracy rate, the closer the corresponding historical forecasted revenue trend is to the historical actual revenue trend.
进一步地,终端获取第二准确率最高的权重组合,并获取各维度在该权重组合中的第二权重配比,基于此最终确定得到各维度对应的第二权重,这样当后续利用这些维度对应的第二权重确定得到的营收趋势也就更准确。Further, the terminal obtains the weight combination with the second highest accuracy rate, and obtains the second weight allocation ratio of each dimension in the weight combination, and finally determines the second weight corresponding to each dimension based on this, so that when these dimensions correspond to the subsequent use The revenue trend determined by the second weight is more accurate.
可选的,基于第三预设规则,各维度对目标企业所属行业的企业营收的关联程度,可以是由相关工程师根据实际经验数据确定的(如金融行业则受资本市场数据影响较深,可为资本维度设置较高的权重),并将各维度对应第二权重的相关设置信息输入到终端,由终端直接获取即可。Optionally, based on the third preset rule, the degree of relevance of each dimension to the corporate revenue of the industry to which the target company belongs may be determined by relevant engineers based on actual experience data (for example, the financial industry is deeply affected by capital market data, and A higher weight can be set for the capital dimension), and the relevant setting information of the second weight corresponding to each dimension is input into the terminal, and the terminal can directly obtain it.
进一步地,终端获取每个维度指数对应的第二权重,然后根据所有维度指数对应的荣枯指数和第二权重,预测目标企业在目标时段的营收趋势(即企业营业收入趋势)。Further, the terminal obtains the second weight corresponding to each dimension index, and then predicts the revenue trend of the target company in the target period (ie, the company's operating income trend) according to the prosperity and decline indices and the second weight corresponding to all dimension indices.
这样,预设规则就相当于是各维度与企业营收之间的关联程度的逻辑分析过程,并基于此为关联程度高的维度配备更高的权重,进而使得基于此预测得到的营收趋势更为准确。In this way, the preset rule is equivalent to a logical analysis process of the degree of correlation between each dimension and the company's revenue, and based on this, a higher weight is assigned to the dimension with a high degree of correlation, so as to make the revenue trend based on this prediction more accurate. to be accurate.
在一实施例中,在上述实施例基础上,所述获取目标企业多维度的企业数据的步骤之后,还包括:In one embodiment, on the basis of the above-mentioned embodiment, after the step of acquiring the multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, the method further includes:
步骤S70、将所述企业数据写入区块链节点中,以构建所述目标企业的资料库。Step S70: Write the enterprise data into the blockchain node to construct the database of the target enterprise.
本实施例中,终端获取到企业数据后,可以是先对企业数据进行筛选,然后得到其中属于因子数据的企业数据,并将这些企业数据写人区块链节点中,以基于区块链技术构建目标企业的资料库。In this embodiment, after the terminal obtains the enterprise data, it may first filter the enterprise data, then obtain the enterprise data belonging to the factor data, and write the enterprise data into the blockchain node, so as to be based on the blockchain technology Build a database of target companies.
区块链是分布式数据存储、点对点传输、共识机制、加密算法等计算机技术的新型应用模式。区块链(Blockchain),本质上是一个去中心化的数据库,是一串使用密码学方法相关联产生的数据块,每一个数据块中包含了一批次网络交易的信息,用于验证其信息的有效性(防伪)和生成下一个区块。区块链可以包括区块链底层平台、平台产品服务层以及应用服务层。Blockchain is a new application mode of computer technology such as distributed data storage, point-to-point transmission, consensus mechanism, and encryption algorithm. Blockchain, essentially a decentralized database, is a series of data blocks associated with cryptographic methods. Each data block contains a batch of network transaction information to verify its Validity of information (anti-counterfeiting) and generation of the next block. The blockchain can include the underlying platform of the blockchain, the platform product service layer, and the application service layer.
区块链底层平台可以包括用户管理、基础服务、智能合约以及运营监控等处理模块。其中,用户管理模块负责所有区块链参与者的身份信息管理,包括维护公私钥生成(账户管理)、密钥管理以及用户真实身份和区块链地址对应关系维护(权限管理)等,并且在授权的情况下,监管和审计某些真实身份的交易情况,提供风险控制的规则配置(风控审计);基础服务模块部署在所有区块链节点设备上,用来验证业务请求的有效性,并对有效请求完成共识后记录到存储上,对于一个新的业务请求,基础服务先对接口适配解析和鉴权处理(接口适配),然后通过共识算法将业务信息加密(共识管理),在加密之后完整一致的传输至共享账本上(网络通信),并进行记录存储;智能合约模块负责合约的注册发行以及合约触发和合约执行,开发人员可以通过某种编程语言定义合约逻辑,发布到区块链上(合约注册),根据合约条款的逻辑,调用密钥或者其它的事件触发执行,完成合约逻辑,同 时还提供对合约升级注销的功能;运营监控模块主要负责产品发布过程中的部署、配置的修改、合约设置、云适配以及产品运行中的实时状态的可视化输出,例如:告警、监控网络情况、监控节点设备健康状态等。The underlying platform of the blockchain can include processing modules such as user management, basic services, smart contracts, and operation monitoring. Among them, the user management module is responsible for the identity information management of all blockchain participants, including maintenance of public and private key generation (account management), key management, and maintenance of the corresponding relationship between the user's real identity and blockchain address (authority management), etc. When authorized, supervise and audit the transactions of some real identities, and provide rule configuration for risk control (risk control audit); the basic service module is deployed on all blockchain node devices to verify the validity of business requests, After completing the consensus on valid requests, record them in the storage. For a new business request, the basic service first adapts the interface for analysis and authentication processing (interface adaptation), and then encrypts the business information through the consensus algorithm (consensus management), After encryption, it is completely and consistently transferred to the shared ledger (network communication), and records are stored; the smart contract module is responsible for the registration and issuance of contracts, as well as contract triggering and contract execution. Developers can define contract logic through a programming language and publish to On the blockchain (contract registration), according to the logic of the contract terms, call the key or other events to trigger execution, complete the contract logic, and also provide the function of contract upgrade and cancellation; the operation monitoring module is mainly responsible for the deployment in the product release process , configuration modification, contract settings, cloud adaptation, and visual output of real-time status in product operation, such as: alarms, monitoring network conditions, monitoring node equipment health status, etc.
这样,通过将企业数据写入区块链节点中,使得企业数据可以存储在区块链网络中,且易取易用,形成目标企业的资料库,在提高了企业数据存储的安全性,也便于后续基于资料库作进一步的数据分析。In this way, by writing enterprise data into the blockchain nodes, the enterprise data can be stored in the blockchain network, and it is easy to access and use, forming a database of the target enterprise, which improves the security of enterprise data storage, and also improves the security of enterprise data storage. It is convenient for further data analysis based on the database.
在一实施例中,在上述实施例基础上,所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势的步骤之后还包括:In an embodiment, on the basis of the above-mentioned embodiment, after the step of predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, further includes:
步骤S80、检测到所述营收趋势为下降趋势时,输出告警信息至所述目标企业的关联设备。Step S80: When it is detected that the revenue trend is a downward trend, output alarm information to an associated device of the target enterprise.
本实施例中,当终端预测得到目标企业在目标时段的营收趋势后,则可以利用营收趋势生成目标企业的营收报告并输出。In this embodiment, after the terminal predicts and obtains the revenue trend of the target company in the target period, it can generate and output the revenue report of the target company by using the revenue trend.
可选的,当终端检测到预测得到的营收趋势为下降趋势时,还可以进一步根据各维度对应的荣枯指数和营收趋势生成告警信息,然后将告警信息输出至目标企业的相关人员的关联设备,以提醒目标企业的相关人员及时作出风控措施,从而最大限度保证目标企业的利益。Optionally, when the terminal detects that the predicted revenue trend is a downward trend, it can further generate alarm information according to the prosperity and decline index and revenue trend corresponding to each dimension, and then output the alarm information to the relevant personnel of the target enterprise. Associate the equipment to remind the relevant personnel of the target enterprise to take risk control measures in time, so as to maximize the interests of the target enterprise.
可选的,当终端在执行步骤S30后,也可以进一步检测各个维度对应的荣枯指数表现的变化趋势是否为下降趋势;若是,则终端根据呈下降趋势的荣枯指数及其维度生成第一提示信息,并将第一提示信息输出至目标企业的关联设备,其中,第一提示信息为风险提示信息,以提示目标企业的相关人员该维度所处领域具有影响到企业营收的风险;若否,则终端根据呈上升趋势的荣枯指数及其维度生成第二提示信息,并将第二提示信息输出至目标企业的关联设备,其中,第二提示信息为机会提示信息,以提示目标企业的相关人员该维度所处领域存在增加企业营收的机会,可以对该维度所处领域加强经营布局。Optionally, after the terminal performs step S30, it can also further detect whether the change trend of the prosperity and decline index corresponding to each dimension is a downward trend; prompting information, and outputting the first prompting information to the associated equipment of the target enterprise, wherein the first prompting information is risk prompting information to remind the relevant personnel of the target enterprise that the field in which the dimension is located has risks that affect the revenue of the enterprise; if No, the terminal generates second prompt information according to the rising trend of prosperity and decline index and its dimensions, and outputs the second prompt information to the associated equipment of the target enterprise, wherein the second prompt information is opportunity prompt information to prompt the target enterprise There are opportunities to increase the company's revenue in the field in which the dimension is located, and the business layout can be strengthened in the field in which the dimension is located.
这样,通过预测得到的营收趋势作进一步的决策分析,以实现对营收趋势的风险提示,从而达到加强目标企业对企业营收的风控能力的目的。In this way, further decision-making analysis is made through the predicted revenue trend to realize the risk warning of the revenue trend, so as to achieve the purpose of strengthening the target enterprise's risk control ability on the enterprise's revenue.
参照图2,本申请实施例中还提供一种企业营收趋势的预测装置10,包括:Referring to FIG. 2 , an embodiment of the present application further provides an apparatus 10 for predicting an enterprise revenue trend, including:
获取模块11,用于获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;The acquisition module 11 is used to acquire multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least one of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data. two dimensions; each of said dimensions includes at least one type of factor data;
第一预测模块12,用于根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;a first prediction module 12, configured to predict a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
第二预测模块13,用于根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;The second prediction module 13 is configured to determine, according to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period, wherein the prosperity and decline index for determining the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
第三预测模块14,用于根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。The third prediction module 14 is configured to predict the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions.
参照图3,本申请实施例中还提供一种计算机设备,该计算机设备可以是服务器,其内部结构可以如图3所示。该计算机设备包括通过系统总线连接的处理器、存储器、网络接口和数据库。其中,该计算机设备的处理器用于提供计算和控制能力。该计算机设备的存储器包括非易失性存储介质、内存储器。该非易失性存储介质存储有操作系统、计算机程序和数据库。该内存储器为非易失性存储介质中的操作系统和计算机程序的运行提供环境。该计算机设备的数据库用于企业营收趋势的预测程序。该计算机设备的网络接口用于 与外部的终端通过网络连接通信。该计算机程序被处理器执行时以实现一种企业营收趋势的预测方法。Referring to FIG. 3 , an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer device. The computer device may be a server, and its internal structure may be as shown in FIG. 3 . The computer device includes a processor, memory, a network interface, and a database connected by a system bus. Among them, the processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium, an internal memory. The nonvolatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program, and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the execution of the operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer equipment is used in the forecasting program of the company's revenue trend. The network interface of the computer device is used to communicate with external terminals through a network connection. The computer program, when executed by a processor, implements a method of forecasting business revenue trends.
本领域技术人员可以理解,图3中示出的结构,仅仅是与本申请方案相关的部分结构的框图,并不构成对本申请方案所应用于其上的计算机设备的限定。Those skilled in the art can understand that the structure shown in FIG. 3 is only a block diagram of a partial structure related to the solution of the present application, and does not constitute a limitation on the computer equipment to which the solution of the present application is applied.
此外,本申请还提出一种计算机可读存储介质,所述计算机可读存储介质包括企业营收趋势的预测程序,所述企业营收趋势的预测程序被处理器执行时实现如以上实施例所述的企业营收趋势的预测方法的步骤。可以理解的是,本实施例中的所述计算机可读存储介质可以是非易失性,也可以是易失性。In addition, the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium includes a program for predicting a company's revenue trend, and when the program for predicting a company's revenue trend is executed by a processor, the implementation is as described in the above embodiments. The steps of the forecasting method of the company's revenue trend described above. It can be understood that, the computer-readable storage medium in this embodiment may be non-volatile or volatile.
综上所述,为本申请实施例中提供的企业营收趋势的预测方法、企业营收趋势的预测装置、计算机设备和存储介质,通过考量宏观数据、产业数据、财务数据、资本数据、舆情数据等多个维度,自动获取影响目标企业营收的多维度数据,建立多个量化指标来反映目标企业营收的多维度解释因子,并在此基础上构建目标企业营收的解释体系,从而在提高预测企业营收趋势的效率的同时,提高了预测企业营收趋势的准确率。To sum up, the method for predicting the enterprise revenue trend, the device for predicting the enterprise revenue trend, the computer equipment and the storage medium provided in the embodiments of this application are based on the consideration of macro data, industrial data, financial data, capital data, and public opinion. Data and other dimensions, automatically obtain multi-dimensional data affecting the target company's revenue, establish multiple quantitative indicators to reflect the multi-dimensional explanatory factors of the target company's revenue, and build an explanation system for the target company's revenue on this basis, so as to While improving the efficiency of forecasting enterprise revenue trends, the accuracy of predicting enterprise revenue trends is also improved.
本领域普通技术人员可以理解实现上述实施例方法中的全部或部分流程,是可以通过计算机程序来指令相关的硬件来完成,所述的计算机程序可存储于一非易失性计算机可读取存储介质中,该计算机程序在执行时,可包括如上述各方法的实施例的流程。其中,本申请所提供的和实施例中所使用的对存储器、存储、数据库或其它介质的任何引用,均可包括非易失性和/或易失性存储器。非易失性存储器可以包括只读存储器(ROM)、可编程ROM(PROM)、电可编程ROM(EPROM)、电可擦除可编程ROM(EEPROM)或闪存。易失性存储器可包括随机存取存储器(RAM)或者外部高速缓冲存储器。作为说明而非局限,RAM通过多种形式可得,诸如静态RAM(SRAM)、动态RAM(DRAM)、同步DRAM(SDRAM)、双速据率SDRAM(SSRSDRAM)、增强型SDRAM(ESDRAM)、同步链路(Synchlink)DRAM(SLDRAM)、存储器总线(Rambus)直接RAM(RDRAM)、直接存储器总线动态RAM(DRDRAM)、以及存储器总线动态RAM(RDRAM)等。Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments can be implemented by instructing relevant hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage In the medium, when the computer program is executed, it may include the processes of the above-mentioned method embodiments. Wherein, any reference to memory, storage, database or other medium provided in this application and used in the embodiments may include non-volatile and/or volatile memory. Nonvolatile memory may include read only memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), electrically programmable ROM (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable ROM (EEPROM), or flash memory. Volatile memory may include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in various forms such as static RAM (SRAM), dynamic RAM (DRAM), synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), double-rate SDRAM (SSRSDRAM), enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), synchronous Link (Synchlink) DRAM (SLDRAM), memory bus (Rambus) direct RAM (RDRAM), direct memory bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM), etc.
需要说明的是,在本文中,术语“包括”、“包含”或者其任何其它变体意在涵盖非排他性的包含,从而使得包括一系列要素的过程、装置、物品或者方法不仅包括那些要素,而且还包括没有明确列出的其它要素,或者是还包括为这种过程、装置、物品或者方法所固有的要素。在没有更多限制的情况下,由语句“包括一个……”限定的要素,并不排除在包括该要素的过程、装置、物品或者方法中还存在另外的相同要素。It should be noted that, herein, the terms "comprising", "comprising" or any other variation thereof are intended to encompass non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, apparatus, article or method comprising a series of elements includes not only those elements, It also includes other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such a process, apparatus, article or method. Without further limitation, an element qualified by the phrase "comprising a..." does not preclude the presence of additional identical elements in the process, apparatus, article, or method that includes the element.
以上所述仅为本申请的优选实施例,并非因此限制本申请的专利范围,凡是利用本申请说明书及附图内容所作的等效结构或等效流程变换,或直接或间接运用在其它相关的技术领域,均同理包括在本申请的专利保护范围内。The above are only the preferred embodiments of the present application, and are not intended to limit the scope of the patent of the present application. Any equivalent structure or equivalent process transformation made by using the contents of the description and drawings of the present application, or directly or indirectly applied to other related The technical field is similarly included in the scope of patent protection of this application.

Claims (20)

  1. 一种企业营收趋势的预测方法,其中,包括:A method of forecasting business revenue trends, which includes:
    获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;Obtain multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
    根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;predicting a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
    根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;According to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the prosperity and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
    根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。According to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
  2. 如权利要求1所述的企业营收趋势的预测方法,其中,所述根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率的步骤之前,还包括:The method for predicting the trend of enterprise revenue according to claim 1, wherein, according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of time periods before the target time period, predicting the factor data in the first time period of the target time period Before the two rate-of-change steps, also include:
    分析每个所述维度中的子数据与所述目标企业的历史营收之间的相关系数,其中,每个所述维度中的数据划分为多类所述子数据;Analyzing the correlation coefficient between the sub-data in each of the dimensions and the historical revenue of the target company, wherein the data in each of the dimensions is divided into multiple types of the sub-data;
    将所述相关系数处于预设数值区间之外的所述子数据作为所述因子数据。The sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside the preset value interval is used as the factor data.
  3. 如权利要求2所述的企业营收趋势的预测方法,其中,所述将所述相关系数处于预设数值区间之外的所述子数据作为所述因子数据的步骤之后,还包括:The method for predicting an enterprise revenue trend according to claim 2, wherein after the step of using the sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside a preset value range as the factor data, the method further comprises:
    根据所述因子数据对应的相关系数,确定所述因子数据的第一权重;determining the first weight of the factor data according to the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data;
    所述根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数的步骤包括:The step of determining, according to the second rate of change of all factor data corresponding to each of the dimensions, the prosperity and decline index of each of the dimensions in the target period includes:
    根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率和所述第一权重,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数。According to the second rate of change and the first weight of all factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined.
  4. 如权利要求1所述的企业营收趋势的预测方法,其中,所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势的步骤之前,还包括:The method for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise according to claim 1, wherein, before the step of predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, Also includes:
    根据预设规则确定所述维度对应的第二权重;determining the second weight corresponding to the dimension according to a preset rule;
    所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势的步骤包括:The step of predicting the revenue trend of the target company in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions includes:
    根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数和所述第二权重,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。The revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted according to the prosperity and decline index corresponding to all the dimensions and the second weight.
  5. 如权利要求4所述的企业营收趋势的预测方法,其中,所述预设规则包括以下任一个:The method for predicting an enterprise revenue trend according to claim 4, wherein the preset rule includes any one of the following:
    根据所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数和历史预测荣枯指数,确定所述维度对应的第一准确率,并根据所述第一准确率确定所述第二权重,其中,所述第一准确率越高,所述第二权重越大;The first accuracy rate corresponding to the dimension is determined according to the historical actual expansion and contraction index and the historical predicted expansion index corresponding to the dimension, and the second weight is determined according to the first accuracy rate, wherein the first The higher the accuracy, the larger the second weight;
    根据所述维度的数量生成多种权重组合,以及基于所述权重组合和各个所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数确定历史预测营收趋势,并根据所述历史预测营收趋势和历史实际营收趋势确定所述权重组合对应的第二准确率,根据所述第二准确率最高的权重组合确定各个所述维度对应的第二权重。Multiple weight combinations are generated according to the number of the dimensions, and the historical forecast revenue trend is determined based on the weight combination and the historical actual growth and decline index corresponding to each of the dimensions, and the historical forecast revenue trend and the historical actual revenue trend are determined according to the historical forecast revenue trend. The second accuracy rate corresponding to the weight combination is determined according to the income trend, and the second weight corresponding to each of the dimensions is determined according to the weight combination with the highest second accuracy rate.
  6. 如权利要求1所述的企业营收趋势的预测方法,其中,所述获取目标企业多维度的企业数据的步骤之后,还包括:The method for predicting an enterprise revenue trend according to claim 1, wherein after the step of acquiring the multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, the method further comprises:
    将所述企业数据写入区块链节点中,以构建所述目标企业的资料库。Write the enterprise data into the blockchain node to build the database of the target enterprise.
  7. 如权利要求1所述的企业营收趋势的预测方法,其中,所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势的步骤之后还包括:The method for predicting the revenue trend of an enterprise according to claim 1, wherein after the step of predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions include:
    检测到所述营收趋势为下降趋势时,输出告警信息至所述目标企业的关联设备。When it is detected that the revenue trend is a downward trend, alarm information is output to the associated device of the target enterprise.
  8. 一种企业营收趋势的预测装置,其中,包括:A forecasting device for enterprise revenue trends, which includes:
    获取模块,用于获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;The acquisition module is used to acquire multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data. dimensions; each of the dimensions includes at least one type of factor data;
    第一预测模块,用于根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;a first prediction module, configured to predict a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
    第二预测模块,用于根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;The second prediction module is configured to determine, according to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each of the dimensions, the prosperity and decline index of each of the dimensions in the target period, wherein the prosperity and decline index is calculated by using for determining the change trend of the dimension in the target period, and the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
    第三预测模块,用于根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。The third prediction module is configured to predict the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions.
  9. 一种计算机设备,其中,所述计算机设备包括存储器、处理器及存储在所述存储器上并可在所述处理器上运行的企业营收趋势的预测程序,所述企业营收趋势的预测程序被所述处理器执行时实现企业营收趋势的预测方法;A computer device, wherein the computer device includes a memory, a processor, and a program for predicting business revenue trends stored on the memory and operable on the processor, the program for predicting business revenue trends A forecasting method for implementing enterprise revenue trends when executed by the processor;
    其中,所述企业营收趋势的预测方法的步骤包括:Wherein, the steps of the method for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise include:
    获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;Obtain multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
    根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;predicting a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
    根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;According to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the prosperity and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
    根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。According to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
  10. 如权利要求9所述的计算机设备,其中,所述根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率的步骤之前,还包括:10. The computer device of claim 9, wherein the step of predicting a second rate of change of the factor data over the target period based on a first rate of change of the factor data over time periods preceding the target period Before, also included:
    分析每个所述维度中的子数据与所述目标企业的历史营收之间的相关系数,其中,每个所述维度中的数据划分为多类所述子数据;Analyzing the correlation coefficient between the sub-data in each of the dimensions and the historical revenue of the target company, wherein the data in each of the dimensions is divided into multiple types of the sub-data;
    将所述相关系数处于预设数值区间之外的所述子数据作为所述因子数据。The sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside the preset value interval is used as the factor data.
  11. 如权利要求10所述的计算机设备,其中,所述将所述相关系数处于预设数值区间之外的所述子数据作为所述因子数据的步骤之后,还包括:The computer device according to claim 10, wherein after the step of using the sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside a preset value interval as the factor data, the method further comprises:
    根据所述因子数据对应的相关系数,确定所述因子数据的第一权重;determining the first weight of the factor data according to the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data;
    所述根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数的步骤包括:The step of determining, according to the second rate of change of all factor data corresponding to each of the dimensions, the prosperity and decline index of each of the dimensions in the target period includes:
    根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率和所述第一权重,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数。According to the second rate of change and the first weight of all factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined.
  12. 如权利要求9所述的计算机设备,其中,所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势的步骤之前,还包括:The computer device according to claim 9, wherein, before the step of predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, further comprising:
    根据预设规则确定所述维度对应的第二权重;determining the second weight corresponding to the dimension according to a preset rule;
    所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营 收趋势的步骤包括:Described according to the described prosperity and decline index corresponding to all described dimensions, the step of predicting the revenue trend of described target enterprise in described target period comprises:
    根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数和所述第二权重,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。The revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted according to the prosperity and decline index corresponding to all the dimensions and the second weight.
  13. 如权利要求12所述的计算机设备,其中,所述预设规则包括以下任一个:The computer device of claim 12, wherein the preset rules include any of the following:
    根据所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数和历史预测荣枯指数,确定所述维度对应的第一准确率,并根据所述第一准确率确定所述第二权重,其中,所述第一准确率越高,所述第二权重越大;The first accuracy rate corresponding to the dimension is determined according to the historical actual expansion and contraction index and the historical predicted expansion index corresponding to the dimension, and the second weight is determined according to the first accuracy rate, wherein the first The higher the accuracy, the larger the second weight;
    根据所述维度的数量生成多种权重组合,以及基于所述权重组合和各个所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数确定历史预测营收趋势,并根据所述历史预测营收趋势和历史实际营收趋势确定所述权重组合对应的第二准确率,根据所述第二准确率最高的权重组合确定各个所述维度对应的第二权重。Multiple weight combinations are generated according to the number of the dimensions, and the historical forecast revenue trend is determined based on the weight combination and the historical actual growth and decline index corresponding to each of the dimensions, and the historical forecast revenue trend and the historical actual revenue trend are determined according to the historical forecast revenue trend. The second accuracy rate corresponding to the weight combination is determined according to the income trend, and the second weight corresponding to each of the dimensions is determined according to the weight combination with the highest second accuracy rate.
  14. 如权利要求9所述的计算机设备,其中,所述获取目标企业多维度的企业数据的步骤之后,还包括:The computer device according to claim 9, wherein after the step of acquiring the multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, it further comprises:
    将所述企业数据写入区块链节点中,以构建所述目标企业的资料库。Write the enterprise data into the blockchain node to build the database of the target enterprise.
  15. 一种计算机可读存储介质,其中,所述计算机可读存储介质上存储有企业营收趋势的预测程序,所述企业营收趋势的预测程序被处理器执行时实现企业营收趋势的预测方法;A computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores a forecasting program for an enterprise's revenue trend, and when the forecasting program for an enterprise's revenue trend is executed by a processor, a method for predicting an enterprise's revenue trend is realized ;
    其中,所述企业营收趋势的预测方法的步骤包括:Wherein, the steps of the method for predicting the revenue trend of the enterprise include:
    获取目标企业多维度的企业数据,其中,所述企业数据包括财务数据、资本市场数据、企业舆情热度、所述目标企业所属的行业对应的宏观数据和产业数据中的至少两个维度;每个所述维度包括至少一类因子数据;Obtain multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, wherein the enterprise data includes at least two dimensions of financial data, capital market data, enterprise public opinion, macro data corresponding to the industry to which the target enterprise belongs, and industrial data; each the dimension includes at least one type of factor data;
    根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率;predicting a second rate of change of the factor data in the target period according to the first rate of change of the factor data in a plurality of periods before the target period;
    根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数,其中,所述荣枯指数用于确定所述维度在所述目标时段的变化趋势,所述变化趋势包括上升趋势或下降趋势;According to the second rate of change of all the factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined, wherein the prosperity and decline index is used to determine the The change trend of the target period, the change trend includes an upward trend or a downward trend;
    根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。According to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted.
  16. 如权利要求15所述的计算机可读存储介质,其中,所述根据所述因子数据在目标时段之前的多个时段的第一变化率,预测所述因子数据在所述目标时段的第二变化率的步骤之前,还包括:16. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the predicting a second change in the factor data over the target period is based on a first rate of change of the factor data for a plurality of periods preceding a target period Before the rate steps, also include:
    分析每个所述维度中的子数据与所述目标企业的历史营收之间的相关系数,其中,每个所述维度中的数据划分为多类所述子数据;Analyzing the correlation coefficient between the sub-data in each of the dimensions and the historical revenue of the target company, wherein the data in each of the dimensions is divided into multiple types of the sub-data;
    将所述相关系数处于预设数值区间之外的所述子数据作为所述因子数据。The sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside the preset value interval is used as the factor data.
  17. 如权利要求16所述的计算机可读存储介质,其中,所述将所述相关系数处于预设数值区间之外的所述子数据作为所述因子数据的步骤之后,还包括:The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 16, wherein after the step of using the sub-data whose correlation coefficient is outside a preset value interval as the factor data, the method further comprises:
    根据所述因子数据对应的相关系数,确定所述因子数据的第一权重;determining the first weight of the factor data according to the correlation coefficient corresponding to the factor data;
    所述根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数的步骤包括:The step of determining, according to the second rate of change of all factor data corresponding to each of the dimensions, the prosperity and decline index of each of the dimensions in the target period includes:
    根据每个所述维度对应的所有因子数据的所述第二变化率和所述第一权重,确定每个所述维度在所述目标时段的荣枯指数。According to the second rate of change and the first weight of all factor data corresponding to each dimension, the prosperity and decline index of each dimension in the target period is determined.
  18. 如权利要求15所述的计算机可读存储介质,其中,所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势的步骤之前,还包括:The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 15, wherein before the step of predicting the revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period according to the prosperity and decline indices corresponding to all the dimensions, the method further comprises: :
    根据预设规则确定所述维度对应的第二权重;determining the second weight corresponding to the dimension according to a preset rule;
    所述根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营 收趋势的步骤包括:Described according to the described prosperity and decline index corresponding to all described dimensions, the step of predicting the revenue trend of described target enterprise in described target period comprises:
    根据所有所述维度对应的所述荣枯指数和所述第二权重,预测所述目标企业在所述目标时段的营收趋势。The revenue trend of the target enterprise in the target period is predicted according to the prosperity and decline index corresponding to all the dimensions and the second weight.
  19. 如权利要求18所述的计算机可读存储介质,其中,所述预设规则包括以下任一个:The computer-readable storage medium of claim 18, wherein the preset rules include any of the following:
    根据所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数和历史预测荣枯指数,确定所述维度对应的第一准确率,并根据所述第一准确率确定所述第二权重,其中,所述第一准确率越高,所述第二权重越大;The first accuracy rate corresponding to the dimension is determined according to the historical actual expansion and contraction index and the historical predicted expansion index corresponding to the dimension, and the second weight is determined according to the first accuracy rate, wherein the first The higher the accuracy, the larger the second weight;
    根据所述维度的数量生成多种权重组合,以及基于所述权重组合和各个所述维度对应的历史实际荣枯指数确定历史预测营收趋势,并根据所述历史预测营收趋势和历史实际营收趋势确定所述权重组合对应的第二准确率,根据所述第二准确率最高的权重组合确定各个所述维度对应的第二权重。Multiple weight combinations are generated according to the number of the dimensions, and the historical forecast revenue trend is determined based on the weight combination and the historical actual growth and decline index corresponding to each of the dimensions, and the historical forecast revenue trend and the historical actual revenue trend are determined according to the historical forecast revenue trend. The second accuracy rate corresponding to the weight combination is determined according to the income trend, and the second weight corresponding to each of the dimensions is determined according to the weight combination with the highest second accuracy rate.
  20. 如权利要求15所述的计算机可读存储介质,其中,所述获取目标企业多维度的企业数据的步骤之后,还包括:The computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein after the step of acquiring the multi-dimensional enterprise data of the target enterprise, the method further comprises:
    将所述企业数据写入区块链节点中,以构建所述目标企业的资料库。Write the enterprise data into the blockchain node to build the database of the target enterprise.
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