WO2022024234A1

WO2022024234A1 - Design assistance device, design assistance system, design assistance method, and design assistance program

Info

Publication number: WO2022024234A1
Application number: PCT/JP2020/028956
Authority: WO
Inventors: 隆臣佐藤
Original assignee: 三菱電機株式会社
Priority date: 2020-07-29
Filing date: 2020-07-29
Publication date: 2022-02-03

Abstract

A design assistance device (4) comprises: an evaluation index calculation unit (416); and a determination unit (417). The evaluation index calculation unit (416) calculates an evaluation index, which is an index corresponding to a predicted profit, which is a profit predicted to be obtained by selling a product produced by improved production equipment, which is production equipment that includes new production equipment. If the evaluation index exceeds a target index, the determination unit (417) determines that it is effective to add the new production equipment. The target index corresponds to a cost of financing, which is a cost corresponding to both the equity capital of a party adding the new production equipment, and the capital of others.

Description

Design support equipment, design support system, design support method, and design support program

This disclosure relates to a design support device, a design support system, a design support method, and a design support program.

There is a technology to calculate the manufacturing cost of the product to be produced after the capital investment, and then calculate the effect of the capital investment and the profit and loss after the capital investment by the production operation simulation. The production operation simulation is a simulation in which a product is produced using a production facility.
As a specific example, the production operation simulation is appropriate for capital investment after calculating the internal rate of return (IRR, International Rate of Return) from the amount of electricity sold, revenue from electricity sold, fuel cost, and maintenance cost associated with equipment renewal of the power plant. It is used to evaluate sex.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2004-05435

The technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 does not consider the cost corresponding to own capital and other people's capital when evaluating the economic efficiency of capital investment when making capital investment. Therefore, this technology has a problem that it can generate only insufficient judgment materials for making investment decisions from a long-term perspective.

The purpose of this disclosure is to consider the costs corresponding to equity capital and other people's capital when assessing the economics of capital investment when making capital investment.

The design support device according to this disclosure is
Corresponds to the forecast profit, which is the profit expected to be obtained by selling the products produced by the improved production equipment, which is the production equipment including the new production equipment, which is the production equipment planned to be newly added. The evaluation index calculation unit that calculates the evaluation index, which is an index,
The cost required to procure funds corresponding to the investment cost required to expand the new production facility, and the cost corresponding to both the capital of the person who expands the new production facility and the capital of others. It is provided with a determination unit that calculates a target index, which is an index corresponding to a certain fund raising cost, and determines that it is effective to add the new production facility when the evaluation index exceeds the target index.

The design support device according to the present disclosure includes an evaluation index calculation unit and a determination unit. The evaluation index calculation unit calculates an evaluation index corresponding to the profit expected to be obtained by the production equipment including the new production equipment. The judgment unit determines that it is effective to add new production equipment when the evaluation index exceeds the target index. The target index is an index corresponding to the financing cost, which is the cost corresponding to both the capital of the person who expands the new production facility and the capital of others.
Therefore, according to the design support device according to the present disclosure, when making a capital investment, the owner of the production equipment considers the cost corresponding to own capital and other people's capital when evaluating the economic efficiency of the capital investment. Can be done.

A configuration example of the design support system 90 according to the first embodiment. A configuration example of the design support device 4 according to the first embodiment. A detailed configuration example of the design support device 4 according to the first embodiment. The figure explaining the premise of the specific example of the information stored in the memory 43 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. An example of the supply and demand past record information 452 according to the first embodiment. An example of the demand forecast information 451 according to the first embodiment. An example of the supply target information 453 according to the first embodiment. An example of the production equipment design information 454 according to the first embodiment. An example of construction design information 455 according to the first embodiment. An example of expense item information 456 according to the first embodiment. An example of investment cost information 457 according to the first embodiment. An example of production planning information 458 according to the first embodiment. An example of production planning information 458 according to the first embodiment. An example of production planning information 458 according to the first embodiment. An example of product design information 459 according to the first embodiment. An example of production operation cost information 460 according to the first embodiment. An example of the evaluation index information 461 according to the first embodiment. An example of the target index information 462 according to the first embodiment. An example of the determination result information 463 according to the first embodiment. A hardware configuration example of the design support device 4 according to the first embodiment. The flowchart which shows the operation of the design support apparatus 4 which concerns on Embodiment 1. A hardware configuration example of the design support device 4 according to the modified example of the first embodiment.

In the description of the embodiment and the drawings, the same element and the corresponding element are designated by the same reference numerals. The description of the elements with the same reference numerals will be omitted or simplified as appropriate. The arrows in the figure mainly indicate the flow of data or the flow of processing.

Embodiment 1.
Hereinafter, the present embodiment will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

*** Explanation of configuration ***
FIG. 1 shows a configuration example of the design support system 90. As shown in this figure, the design support system 90 includes one or more production facilities 1, a production control device 3, a design support device 4, and a display device 5. Each component of the design support system 90 is connected to any one or more components of the design support system 90.

Production equipment 1 is equipment that industrially produces products that can be sold. The plurality of production facilities 1 may be different from each other. As a specific example, the production equipment 1 is an industrial product manufacturing equipment or a power generation equipment.

The production control device 3 controls one or more production facilities 1 based on the output from the design support device 4.

The display device 5 displays the output from the design support device 4. As a specific example, the display device 5 is an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) display.

FIG. 2 shows a configuration example of the design support device 4 according to the present embodiment. As shown in this figure, the design support device 4 includes a control unit 41, a storage 42, a memory 43, a communication unit 44, and an input unit 45. The design support device 4 is also called a production process design support device.

The control unit 41 evaluates the economic efficiency of capital investment in consideration of the costs corresponding to equity capital and other people's capital. Equity is the capital of the owner of production equipment 1. The capital of others is the capital other than the owner of the production equipment 1.

The storage 42 is hardware for storing data and records the design support program 421. The design support program 421 is also referred to as a production process design support program. The design support program 421 is a program for realizing the functions of each part of the design support device 4 in a computer. The functions of each part of the design support device 4 are realized by software.

The memory 43 stores data used by the control unit 41 for execution.

The communication unit 44 controls communication between the design support device 4 and other devices.

The input unit 45 is used to input information to the design support device 4.

FIG. 3 shows the details of the control unit 41 and the memory 43. The details of each part included in the design support device 4 will be described with reference to this figure. In this figure, the database is referred to as DB.

As shown in FIG. 3, the control unit 41 includes a communication control unit 411, a demand forecast estimation unit 412, an investment cost calculation unit 413, a production planning planning unit 414, a production cost calculation unit 415, and an evaluation index calculation unit. A 416 and a determination unit 417 are provided.
Hereinafter, each unit included in the control unit 41 will be described. The information used by each unit included in the control unit 41 will be basically described later.

The communication control unit 411 controls the communication between the design support device 4 and other devices and the communication between the control unit 41 and the memory 43.

The demand forecast estimation unit 412 estimates the forecast of the demand of the product. Specifically, the demand forecast estimation unit 412 generates supply target information 453 by using the demand forecast information 451 and the supply and demand past record information 452. The supply target information 453 indicates a supply target related to the product. Unless otherwise specified, the product refers to the product produced by the production equipment 1. The product may be an intangible product such as electricity. The supply target for the product is, as a specific example, the target of the supply amount of the product or the parts constituting the product.
The demand forecast estimation unit 412 obtains future demand forecast information using the difference between the demand actual information and the past demand forecast information, and generates supply target information 453 based on the future demand forecast information. The demand performance information shows the past demand performance of the product. The past demand forecast information is information corresponding to the demand actual information and is information indicating the past demand forecast of the product. As a specific example, the past demand forecast information shows the result of the sales forecast for each year. Future demand forecast information indicates a forecast of future demand for a product.
The demand forecast estimation unit 412 may obtain past demand forecast information and future demand forecast information using a learning model. When the parameters of the learning model are updated, the demand forecast estimation unit 412 may update the past demand forecast information shown in the supply / demand past actual information 452 by the updated learning model.

The investment cost calculation unit 413 calculates the investment cost corresponding to the new production equipment by using the design information of the new production equipment and the design information of the construction for introducing the new production equipment. The new production equipment is a production equipment that is planned to be newly added. As a specific example, the new production equipment is a part to be improved or enhanced, or a newly installed equipment when the existing equipment is improved or enhanced. The new production facility may be a plan to add a plurality of production facilities 1. Production equipment with new production equipment added is called improved production equipment. The improved production equipment is a production equipment including a new production equipment.
Specifically, the investment cost calculation unit 413 generates investment cost information 457 using production equipment design information 454, construction design information 455, and cost item information 456, and the generated investment cost information 457 is used as investment cost. Store in database 437.

The production planning department 414 formulates a production plan. The production plan is a plan to produce a product using at least one production facility 1. Specifically, the production planning unit 414 generates production planning information 458 using the supply target information 453, and stores the generated production planning information 458 in the production planning database 438.

The production cost calculation unit 415 receives the operation cost and the production plan, calculates the production cost using the production plan, and calculates the production operation cost using the production cost and the operation cost. The operating cost is the cost required to operate the improved production equipment. The production cost is the cost required to produce the product, excluding the investment cost. A production plan indicates a plan to produce a product. The production operation cost is the sum of the costs required for operating the improved production equipment and producing the product using the improved production equipment. However, the production operation cost does not include the investment cost for the improved production equipment. The production operation cost is sometimes called the total manufacturing cost. Specifically, the production cost calculation unit 415 generates production operation cost information 460 using the production equipment design information 454, the cost item information 456, the production plan information 458, and the product design information 459, and the generated production. The operation cost information 460 is stored in the production operation cost database 440.

The evaluation index calculation unit 416 calculates the evaluation index using the investment cost and the production operation cost. The evaluation index calculation unit 416 is also referred to as an economic evaluation index calculation unit. The evaluation index is an index calculated based on the predicted profit and is an index corresponding to the predicted profit. The evaluation index is also called an economic evaluation index. The predicted profit is the profit expected to be obtained by selling the product produced by the improved production facility. As a specific example, the evaluation index is an annual internal rate of return (IRR, International Rate of Return).
Specifically, the evaluation index calculation unit 416 generates the evaluation index information 461 using the investment cost information 457 and the production operation cost information 460, and stores the generated evaluation index information 461 in the evaluation index database 441. The evaluation index calculation unit 416 may calculate the internal rate of return as an evaluation index.

The determination unit 417 determines whether or not it is effective to add new production equipment. Specifically, the determination unit 417 determines that it is effective to add new production equipment when the evaluation index exceeds the target index, and it is not effective to add new production equipment in other cases. Is determined. If it is effective to add new production equipment, it is expected that sufficient profit will be obtained by adding new production equipment. The determination unit 417 generates determination result information 463 indicating the determination result, and stores the generated determination result information 463 in the determination result database 443.
The determination unit 417 calculates the target index. The target index indicates the target value of the evaluation index. The target index is also called an economic evaluation target. The target index is an index calculated based on the funding cost, and is an index corresponding to the funding cost. The financing cost is the cost required to procure the funds corresponding to the investment cost, and is the cost corresponding to both the capital of the person who expands the new production facility and the capital of others. The investment cost is the cost required to add new production equipment. The funds corresponding to the investment cost are the funds necessary to cover the investment cost. As a specific example, the target index is a weighted average cost of capital (WACC, Weighted Average Cost of Capital). That is, the determination unit 417 may calculate the weighted average cost of capital as a target index. The determination unit 417 may determine that it is effective to add new production equipment when the evaluation index and the target index have the same value.
The determination unit 417 may acquire information on investment costs, information on the ratio of equity capital, information on interest rates, and the like, and may calculate a target index using the acquired information.

As shown in FIG. 3, the memory 43 includes a demand forecast database 431, a supply and demand past record database 432, a supply target database 433, a production equipment design information database 434, a construction design information database 435, and an expense item database 436. It stores an investment cost database 437, a production plan database 438, a product design information database 439, a production operation cost database 440, an evaluation index database 441, a target index database 442, and a determination result database 443. Hereinafter, the information stored in the memory 43 will be described with reference to specific examples.

FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a premise of a specific example of the information stored in the memory 43. The squares in this figure correspond to the production process. This example will be described below. This example relates to a factory that manufactures compressors used in refrigerators or air conditioners. It is assumed that this factory manufactures three types of products (Product A, Product B, and Product C). Here, it is assumed that the product A is for a household air conditioner, has a small profit margin, and has a large number of sales. Product B is intended for industrial air conditioners, has a large profit margin, and has a small number of sales. Product C is intended for commercial air conditioners, has a not so large profit margin, and is obliged to supply.
In addition, comparing the demand forecast after 2021 with the production capacity corresponding to each process at the current main factory, the production capacity corresponding to the painting process is insufficient, and the production capacity corresponding to other processes is sufficient. Suppose that
Therefore, the owner of this factory starts to consider adding painting equipment, and after performing equipment design and construction design, the investment cost is estimated. Here, the painting equipment is equipment corresponding to the painting process. Equipment design, construction design, and investment cost correspond to the expansion of painting equipment.
However, there is a problem that the long-term operating cost after adding the painting equipment is not clear, or even if the operating cost is known, the economic efficiency of the return on investment cannot be evaluated. Hereinafter, a method of solving the present problem according to the present embodiment will be described with an outline.

The supply and demand past record database 432 is a database that stores the supply and demand past record information 452. The supply and demand past record information 452 shows the actual results of supply and demand of products.
FIG. 5 shows a specific example of the supply and demand past record information 452. In this example, the past supply and demand information 452 is the sales volume of three types of products in the past five years (FY2016-FY2020), climate information (summer average temperature and humidity, winter average temperature and humidity), and economic indicators. (GDP growth rate) and included. The actual sales quantity corresponds to the actual demand information and shows the actual sales in the past in units of pieces. The forecasted sales quantity corresponds to the past demand forecast information, indicates the demand forecasted in the past, and is proportional to the demand index. The demand index is a value obtained by indexing the demand of the product and is calculated based on the information shown in this figure. As a specific example, the demand index is obtained by regression prediction using AI (Artificial Integrity). In addition, since the main final product is an air conditioner, climate information is used as a parameter of the demand index.

The demand forecast database 431 is a database that stores the demand forecast information 451. The demand forecast information 451 shows a forecast of the demand of the product and includes the future demand forecast information.
FIG. 6 shows a specific example of the demand forecast information 451. In this example, the demand forecast information 451 determines the sales forecast quantity of the three types of products in the next five years (FY2021 to FY2025) based on the actual sales quantity of the three types of products in the past five years shown in FIG. It is calculated. The forecasted sales quantity is obtained by learning based on the difference between the actual sales quantity and the forecasted sales quantity. The sales forecast quantity corresponds to the future demand forecast information. From the "summer average temperature [° C]" column to the "GDP growth rate [%]" column, data for calculating future demand forecast information is shown.
The sales forecast quantity shown in this figure is for a positive case. However, it is desirable that there are two types of sales volume forecasts, one in the positive case and the other in the negative case. In the case of Positive, as a specific example, when the air conditioner is assumed to be a product, the summer is hot and the winter is cold, or there are many constructions of new buildings due to the Olympic Games and the like. In the case of Negative, as a specific example, as the GDP growth rate decreases, the demand forecast index also decreases. The demand forecast index is an index of the demand forecast. The demand forecast index may be obtained in any way.

The supply target database 433 is a database that stores the supply target information 453. The supply target information 453 indicates a supply target based on the demand forecast and the current production capacity.
FIG. 7 shows a specific example of the supply target information 453. In this example, the supply target and the current production capacity for each production process in one year are shown for each product. "Supply target quantity" indicates a supply target based on a demand forecast. "Current production capacity" indicates the current production capacity. In this example, in all the products, the "supply target quantity" is lower than the "current production capacity" only in the painting process. Therefore, it can be seen that the supply of products will be insufficient in the future to meet the demand for products due to the lack of production capacity in the painting process.

The production equipment design information database 434 is a database that stores the production equipment design information 454. The production equipment design information 454 indicates information on resources such as parts necessary for designing a new production equipment. In this example, in the construction design information 455, when the resource type required for each item is personnel, the score represents the total operating time of all workers.
FIG. 8 shows a specific example of the production equipment design information 454. This example corresponds to the addition of new painting equipment in order to increase the production capacity of the painting process. In this example, as the design information of the painting equipment to be added, the type and quantity of the members constituting the equipment and the design man-hours are shown for each equipment constituting the painting equipment. The coating equipment shall consist of leak test equipment, cleaning equipment, electrodeposition coating equipment, drying furnace equipment, and vacuum furnace equipment.

The construction design information database 435 is a database for storing construction design information 455. The construction design information 455 indicates information such as man-hours required in each process of construction.
FIG. 9 shows a specific example of the construction design information 455. The curve connecting the two tables indicates that the two tables are connected. That is, in this figure, the row following the bottom row in the left table is the top row in the right table.
This example is a result of requesting design information regarding mechanical work, electrical work, and control test run based on the production equipment design information 454. Specifically, the type and quantity of equipment assembly consumables, the type and quantity of equipment installation consumables, the type and quantity of electrical wiring laying consumables, mechanical work design man-hours, electrical work design man-hours, and equipment control. This example is generated by obtaining the design man-hours, the control program creation man-hours, and the trial run man-hours.

The expense item database 436 is a database for storing expense item information 456. The cost item information 456 indicates the cost for each resource.
FIG. 10 shows a specific example of the expense item information 456. This example shows the unit price of various resources used when calculating the investment cost based on the production equipment design information 454 and the construction design information 455. In addition, this example also shows the unit price of various resources used when calculating the production operation cost based on the production plan information 458 and the product design information 459.

The investment cost database 437 is a database for storing investment cost information 457. The investment cost information 457 indicates the investment cost. The investment cost indicates the cost required for the investment to add a new production facility.
FIG. 11 shows a specific example of the investment cost information 457. In this example, the investment cost information 457 shows a value calculated by multiplying the values shown in the production equipment design information 454 and the construction design information 455 by the unit price shown in the cost item information 456. There is.

The production planning database 438 is a database for storing production planning information 458. The production plan information 458 shows the production plan calculated based on the demand forecast.
12, 13, and 14 show specific examples of production planning information 458. In this example, the production plan information 458 shows the production plan calculated for each product and each production process based on the demand forecast.
In this example, three types of production plans of types 1 to 3 are calculated based on the demand forecast. Here, Type 1 corresponds to an exclusive share (share 80-100%), Type 2 corresponds to a medium share (share 20-80%), and Type 3 corresponds to a small share or small share. Corresponds to the start (share 0 to 20%).
Hereinafter, the description of each information stored in the memory 43 corresponds to a production plan having a 100% share of type 1. It is desirable to calculate the production operation cost for each of the three types of production plans shown in this figure, obtain an evaluation index, and compare the three types of production plans.

The product design information database 439 is a database that stores the product design information 459. The product design information 459 is a so-called manufacturing BOM (Bills Of Materials).
FIG. 15 shows a specific example of product design information 459. In this example, the product design information 459 indicates a component, a resource type, and a score for each product.

The production operation cost database 440 is a database that stores the production operation cost information 460. The production operation cost information 460 indicates the production operation cost. The process of obtaining the production operation cost information 460 corresponds to the production operation cost simulation.
FIG. 16 shows a specific example of the production operation cost information 460. In this example, the production operation cost information 460 is a value calculated by multiplying the values shown in the production plan information 458 and the product design information 459 by the unit price shown in the expense item information 456. Shows.

The evaluation index database 441 is a database that stores the evaluation index information 461. The evaluation index information 461 indicates an evaluation index.
FIG. 17 shows a specific example of the evaluation index information 461. In this example, the evaluation index information 461 is based on the demand forecast in the positive case, and shows various values corresponding to the products A, B, and C from 2021 to 2025. Here, the product sales are based on the demand forecast information 451. The investment cost is based on the investment cost information 457. The production operation cost is based on the production operation cost information 460. The total is the sum of product sales, investment costs, and production and operation costs.

The target index database 442 is a database that stores target index information 462. The target index information 462 indicates a target index.
FIG. 18 shows a specific example of the target index information 462. The investment code indicates the name of the project to be invested. In this example, the investment code is "painting process expansion". Fixed liabilities indicate the cost of borrowing from other people's capital such as financial institutions. Fixed liabilities interest rate indicates the interest rate of expenses borrowed from financial institutions. Net assets indicate the costs borrowed from shareholders, etc. Net asset interest rate indicates the interest rate for returning to shareholders. Net worth interest rates are also called shareholder expectations. WACC indicates the average interest rate between the equity capital that is the source of investment and the capital of others.

The determination result database 443 is a database that stores the determination result information 463. The determination result information 463 shows the determination result by the determination unit 417.
FIG. 19 shows a specific example of the determination result information 463. In this example, IRR> WACC, so a return on investment is expected. Therefore, OK is shown in the judgment result.

FIG. 20 shows a hardware configuration example of the design support device 4 according to the present embodiment. The design support device 4 comprises a computer. The design support device 4 may be composed of a plurality of computers.

As shown in this figure, the design support device 4 is a computer including hardware such as a processor 11, a main storage device 12, an auxiliary storage device 13, an input / output IF (Interface) 14, and a communication device 15. .. These hardware are connected to each other via a signal line 19. The main storage device 12 is also called a main memory.

The processor 11 is an IC (Integrated Circuit) that performs arithmetic processing, and controls the hardware included in the computer. As a specific example, the processor 11 is a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a DSP (Digital Signal Processor), or a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit).
The design support device 4 may include a plurality of processors that replace the processor 11. The plurality of processors share the role of the processor 11.

The main storage device 12 is typically a volatile storage device. The main storage device 12 is also referred to as a main storage device or a main memory. As a specific example, the main storage device 12 is a RAM (Random Access Memory). The data stored in the main storage device 12 is stored in the auxiliary storage device 13 as needed. Data refers to electronic data unless otherwise noted.

The auxiliary storage device 13 is typically a non-volatile storage device. As a specific example, the auxiliary storage device 13 is a ROM (Read Only Memory), an HDD (Hard Disk Drive), or a flash memory. The data stored in the auxiliary storage device 13 is loaded into the main storage device 12 as needed.
The main storage device 12 and the auxiliary storage device 13 may be integrally configured.

The input / output IF14 is a port to which an input device and an output device are connected. The input / output IF 14 is, as a specific example, a USB (Universal Serial Bus) terminal. The input device is, as a specific example, a keyboard and a mouse. The output device is, as a specific example, a display.

The communication device 15 is a receiver and a transmitter. As a specific example, the communication device 15 is a communication chip or a NIC (Network Interface Card).

Each part of the design support device 4 may appropriately use the communication device 15 when communicating with other devices and the like.
When each part of the design support device 4 accepts data, each part of the design support device 4 may receive data via the input / output IF 14 or may receive data via the communication device 15.

The memory 43 typically comprises a main storage device 12. The storage 42 typically comprises an auxiliary storage device 13.

The design support program 421 is loaded into the main storage device 12 and executed by the processor 11. The data used when the design support program 421 is executed, the data obtained by executing the design support program 421, and the like are appropriately stored in the storage device. Each part of the design support device 4 uses a storage device as appropriate. As a specific example, the storage device includes at least one of a main storage device 12, an auxiliary storage device 13, a register in the processor 11, and a cache memory in the processor 11. In addition, data and information may have the same meaning. The storage device may be independent of the computer 10.
Each of the function of the main storage device 12 and the function of the auxiliary storage device 13 may be realized by another storage device.

The design support program 421 may be recorded on a non-volatile recording medium that can be read by a computer. The non-volatile recording medium is, for example, an optical disk or a flash memory. The design support program 421 may be provided as a program product.

*** Explanation of operation ***
The operation procedure of the design support device 4 corresponds to the design support method. Further, the program that realizes the operation of the design support device 4 corresponds to the design support program 421.

FIG. 21 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the design support device 4. The operation of the design support device 4 will be described with reference to this figure.

(Step S201: Demand forecast information acquisition process)
The demand forecast device 2 outputs the demand forecast information 451 to the design support device 4.
The communication control unit 411 stores the demand forecast information 451 received from the demand forecast device 2 in the demand forecast database 431.

(Step S202: Supply target information generation process)
The demand forecast estimation unit 412 acquires the demand forecast information 451 from the demand forecast database 431, the supply / supply past record information 452 from the supply / supply past record database 432, and the supply target information 453 from the supply target database 433. The demand forecast estimation unit 412 updates the demand forecast information 451 based on the difference between the past demand forecast and the actual demand. The demand forecast estimation unit 412 generates supply target information 453 based on the updated demand forecast information 451 and stores the generated supply target information 453 in the supply / supply past record database 432.
The demand forecast estimation unit 412 outputs the generated supply target information 453 to the production planning unit 414 via the communication control unit 411.

(Step S203: Investment cost information generation process)
The investment cost calculation unit 413 acquires the production equipment design information 454 from the production equipment design information database 434, the construction design information 455 from the construction design information database 435, and the expense item information 456 from the expense item database 436. The investment cost calculation unit 413 generates investment cost information 457 based on the production equipment design information 454, construction design information 455, and cost item information 456, and stores the generated investment cost information 457 in the investment cost database 437.

(Step S204: Production plan information generation process)
The production planning unit 414 acquires supply target information 453 from the demand forecast estimation unit 412, generates production plan information 458 based on the acquired supply target information 453, and stores the generated production plan information 458 in the production plan database 438. Remember.

(Step S205: Production operation cost information generation process)
The production cost calculation unit 415 acquires the product design information 459 from the product design information database 439, the production plan information 458 from the production plan database 438, and the expense item information 456 from the expense item database 436. The production cost calculation unit 415 generates production operation cost information 460 based on the product design information 459, production plan information 458, and cost item information 456, and stores the generated production operation cost information 460 in the production operation cost database 440. do.

(Step S206: Evaluation index information generation process)
The evaluation index calculation unit 416 acquires the investment cost information 457 from the investment cost database 437, and acquires the production operation cost information 460 from the production operation cost database 440.
The evaluation index calculation unit 416 generates the evaluation index information 461 based on the investment cost information 457 and the production operation cost information 460, and stores the generated evaluation index information 461 in the evaluation index database 441.

(Step S207: Judgment result information generation process)
The determination unit 417 acquires the evaluation index information 461 from the evaluation index database 441, and acquires the target index information 462 from the target index database 442.
The determination unit 417 determines the return on investment based on the evaluation index information 461 and the target index information 462, generates the determination result information 463 indicating the determination result, and uses the generated determination result information 463 as the determination result database 443. Remember in.

(Step S208: Output processing)
The communication control unit 411 acquires the determination result information 463 from the determination result database 443. The communication control unit 411 outputs the determination result information 463 to the display device 5.

*** Explanation of the effect of Embodiment 1 ***
As described above, the design support device 4 according to the present embodiment calculates the investment cost for introducing the new production equipment, and calculates the production operation cost by the production operation cost simulation. Further, the design support device 4 calculates the profit predicted to be obtained by selling the product based on the forecast of the supply and demand of the product, the investment cost, and the production operation cost. Further, the design support device 4 obtains the IRR and the WACC, and determines whether or not the expansion of the production equipment is effective depending on whether or not the IRR exceeds the WACC. Therefore, according to the design support device 4 according to the present embodiment, it is possible to evaluate the investment return of the introduction of the production equipment with higher accuracy before the introduction of the production equipment without actually performing the production.
Therefore, the owner of the production equipment can efficiently execute the capital investment, the equipment design, the product design, etc. by using the data used by the design support device 4 and the execution result of the design support device 4. can. Further, according to the design support device 4, since it is possible to evaluate the economic efficiency of the return on investment with high accuracy, it is possible to seamlessly connect the design of the production site layer to the investment decision of the management layer.

In addition, in power plants (PA, Process Automation), the return on investment can only be achieved from the perspective of the energy supply side, and it is not possible to evaluate the validity of the return on investment including the demand side or the product production side. There was a challenge. According to the design support device 4 according to the present embodiment, this problem can be solved.

*** Other configurations ***
<Modification 1>
Except for the evaluation index calculation unit 416, the judgment unit 417, the evaluation index database 441, and the target index database 442, each part and the database provided in the design support device 4 are functions or databases provided in the external device of the design support device 4. It may be.

<Modification 2>
FIG. 22 shows a hardware configuration example of the design support device 4 according to this modification.
As shown in this figure, the design support device 4 includes a processing circuit 18 in place of at least one of the processor 11, the main storage device 12, and the auxiliary storage device 13.
The processing circuit 18 is hardware that realizes at least a part of each part included in the design support device 4.
The processing circuit 18 may be dedicated hardware, or may be a processor that executes a program stored in the main storage device 12.

When the processing circuit 18 is dedicated hardware, the processing circuit 18 is, as a specific example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, an ASIC (ASIC is an Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an FPGA. (Field Programmable Gate Array) or a combination thereof.
The design support device 4 may include a plurality of processing circuits that replace the processing circuit 18. The plurality of processing circuits share the role of the processing circuit 18.

In the design support device 4, some functions may be realized by dedicated hardware, and the remaining functions may be realized by software or firmware.

As a specific example, the processing circuit 18 is realized by hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof.
The processor 11, the main storage device 12, the auxiliary storage device 13, and the processing circuit 18 are collectively referred to as "processing circuit Lee". That is, the functions of each functional component of the design support device 4 are realized by the processing circuit.

*** Other embodiments ***
Although the first embodiment has been described, a plurality of parts of the present embodiment may be combined and carried out. Alternatively, the present embodiment may be partially implemented. In addition, various modifications may be made to the present embodiment as necessary, and the present embodiment may be implemented in any combination as a whole or partially.
It should be noted that the embodiments described above are essentially preferred examples and are not intended to limit the present disclosure, its applications and the scope of its use. The procedure described using the flowchart or the like may be changed as appropriate.

11 processor, 12 main storage device, 13 auxiliary storage device, 14 input / output IF, 15 communication device, 18 processing circuit, 19 signal line, 1 production equipment, 2 demand forecasting device, 3 production control device, 4 design support device, 5 Display device, 41 control unit, 411 communication control unit, 412 demand forecast estimation unit, 413 investment cost calculation unit, 414 production planning unit, 415 production cost calculation unit, 416 evaluation index calculation unit, 417 judgment unit, 42 storage, 421. Design support program, 43 memory, 431 demand forecast database, 432 supply and demand past record database, 433 supply target database, 434 production equipment design information database, 435 construction design information database, 436 cost item database, 437 investment cost database, 438 production plan database, 439 Product design information database, 440 Production operation cost database, 441 Evaluation index database, 442 Target index database, 443 Judgment result database, 451 Demand forecast information, 452 Demand and supply past performance information, 453 Supply target information, 454 Production equipment design information, 455 Construction design information, 456 cost item information, 457 investment cost information, 458 production plan information, 459 product design information, 460 production operation cost information, 461 evaluation index information, 462 target index information, 463 judgment result information, 44 communication department, 45 input. Department, 90 design support system.

Claims

Corresponds to the forecast profit, which is the profit expected to be obtained by selling the products produced by the improved production equipment, which is the production equipment including the new production equipment, which is the production equipment planned to be newly added. The evaluation index calculation unit that calculates the evaluation index, which is an index,
The cost required to procure funds corresponding to the investment cost required to expand the new production facility, and the cost corresponding to both the capital of the person who expands the new production facility and the capital of others. Design support provided with a determination unit that calculates a target index, which is an index corresponding to a certain funding cost, and determines that it is effective to add the new production equipment when the evaluation index exceeds the target index. Device.
The design support device according to claim 1, further comprising an investment cost calculation unit that calculates the investment cost using the design information of the new production equipment and the design information of the construction for introducing the new production equipment.
The operation cost, which is the cost required to operate the improved production facility, and the production plan indicating the plan to produce the product are received, and the investment cost, which is the cost required to produce the product, is used as the investment cost. The production cost, which is the cost to be excluded, is calculated by using the production plan, and is required to operate the improved production facility and to produce the product by using the production cost and the operation cost. Equipped with a production cost calculation unit that calculates the production operation cost, which is the cost.
The design support device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the evaluation index calculation unit calculates the evaluation index using the investment cost and the production operation cost.
Using the difference between the demand actual information indicating the actual demand of the product and the past demand forecast information which is the information corresponding to the demand actual information and is the information indicating the past demand forecast of the product. A claim including a demand forecast estimation unit that obtains future demand forecast information indicating a future demand forecast of the product and generates supply target information indicating a supply target related to the product based on the future demand forecast information. The design support device according to 3.
The design support device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the evaluation index calculation unit calculates an internal rate of return as the evaluation index.
The design support device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the determination unit calculates a weighted average cost of capital as the target index.
A design support system including the design support device according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
With the profit expected to be obtained by the evaluation index calculation department selling the products produced by the improved production equipment, which is the production equipment including the new production equipment, which is the production equipment planned to be newly added. Calculate an evaluation index, which is an index corresponding to a certain forecast profit,
The cost required for the determination unit to procure funds corresponding to the investment cost required for expanding the new production equipment, and for both the capital of the person who expands the new production equipment and the capital of others. A design support method that calculates a target index, which is an index corresponding to the funding cost, which is the corresponding cost, and determines that it is effective to add the new production facility when the evaluation index exceeds the target index. ..
On the computer
Corresponds to the forecast profit, which is the profit expected to be obtained by selling the products produced by the improved production equipment, which is the production equipment including the new production equipment, which is the production equipment planned to be newly added. Have them calculate the evaluation index, which is an index,
The cost required to procure funds corresponding to the investment cost required to expand the new production facility, and the cost corresponding to both the capital of the person who expands the new production facility and the capital of others. A design support program that causes a target index, which is an index corresponding to a certain funding cost, to be calculated, and when the evaluation index exceeds the target index, it is judged that it is effective to add the new production facility.