WO2021204176A1 - 业务数据预测方法、装置、电子设备及计算机可读存储介质 - Google Patents
业务数据预测方法、装置、电子设备及计算机可读存储介质 Download PDFInfo
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Definitions
- the present disclosure relates to the field of data processing technology, and in particular, to a business data prediction method, device, electronic equipment, and computer-readable storage medium.
- Data prediction analysis is a method of using historical data to predict future data and trends. It has a wide range of applications in the development of modern science and technology and the improvement of productivity.
- ARIMA model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model
- moving can also be called sliding
- ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model
- MA moving average
- q the number of moving average terms
- d the number of moving average terms
- d the number of differences (order) made by the sequence.
- the characteristic of the ARIMA model is that it does not directly consider the changes of other related random variables.
- the present disclosure provides a business data prediction method, device, electronic equipment, and computer-readable storage medium.
- the present disclosure provides a business data prediction method, including:
- the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period is determined.
- the service data is enterprise user load.
- the acquiring historical business data of the same period corresponding to the designated time period includes:
- the filtering the initial historical business data to obtain the historical business data includes:
- the preset threshold is a product value of the standard deviation and a preset multiple.
- the determining the initial model parameters corresponding to the prediction model according to the historical business data includes:
- the order processing is performed on the historical service data to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter corresponding to the prediction model.
- the performing differential processing on the historical service data to obtain the first model parameter corresponding to the prediction model includes:
- n-th order differential processing on the historical business data; where n is a positive integer greater than or equal to 1;
- the n is used as the first model parameter.
- the determining the data stability of the historical business data includes:
- the determining the data stability of the historical business data includes:
- the unit root test model is invoked to perform a stationarity test on the historical business data, and when the probability value corresponding to the test statistic is less than 0.05, it is determined that the historical business data is a stationary sequence.
- the stepping processing of the historical business data to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter corresponding to the prediction model includes:
- the second model parameter and the third model parameter are obtained.
- the stepping processing of the historical business data to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter corresponding to the prediction model includes:
- the order processing is performed according to the information criterion to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter.
- the historical period includes a first historical period and a second historical period, the time of the first historical period is earlier than the second historical period, and the invoking of the prediction model is based on the initial model parameters and
- the historical service data predicting the first prediction result and the prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period includes:
- the prediction model is invoked to predict the service data within the specified time period according to the initial model parameters, the first historical service data, and the second historical service data, to obtain the first prediction result.
- calculating the predicted residual value according to the predicted service data and second historical service data of the second historical period includes:
- the determining the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result includes:
- the sum value between the first prediction result and the second prediction result is obtained, and the sum value is used as the prediction data of the specified time period.
- the present disclosure provides a business data prediction device, including:
- the historical data acquisition module is used to acquire historical business data of the same period corresponding to the specified time period
- the model parameter determination module is used to determine the initial model parameters corresponding to the prediction model according to the historical business data
- the first result prediction module is configured to call the prediction model to obtain the first prediction result and the prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period according to the initial model parameters and the historical service data;
- the target parameter determination module is configured to determine the target model parameter corresponding to the prediction model according to the prediction residual value
- the second result prediction module is configured to call the prediction model to process the prediction residual value according to the target model parameters and the historical business data to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period;
- the prediction data determining module is configured to determine the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result.
- the historical data acquisition module includes:
- An initial business data acquisition unit for acquiring the initial historical business data of the same historical period
- the historical business data screening unit is used to filter the initial historical business data to obtain the historical business data.
- model parameter determination module includes:
- the first model parameter obtaining unit is configured to perform differential processing on the historical service data to obtain the first model parameter corresponding to the prediction model;
- the second model parameter acquisition unit is configured to perform order processing on the historical service data to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter corresponding to the prediction model.
- the historical period includes a first historical period and a second historical period, the first historical period is earlier than the second historical period, and the first result prediction module includes:
- a predictive business data acquisition unit configured to call the predictive model to predict the business data of the second historical period based on the initial model parameters and the first historical business data of the first historical period to obtain the second Forecast business data for the same period in history;
- a predicted residual value calculation unit configured to calculate the predicted residual value based on the predicted business data and the second historical business data in the same period of the second history
- the first prediction result obtaining unit is configured to call the prediction model to predict the service data within the specified time period based on the initial model parameters, the first historical service data, and the second historical service data to obtain all The first prediction result.
- the present disclosure provides an electronic device, including:
- the present disclosure provides a computer-readable storage medium.
- the electronic device can execute the business data prediction method described in any one of the above.
- the present disclosure provides a computer program, including computer-readable code, which, when the computer-readable code runs on an electronic device, causes the electronic device to execute the above-mentioned business data prediction method.
- Figure 1 shows a flow chart of the steps of a business data prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure
- Figure 2 shows a flow chart of the steps of another business data prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure
- FIG. 3 shows a sequence diagram for checking data stationarity provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure
- FIG. 4 shows a schematic diagram of an autocorrelation function provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure
- FIG. 5 shows a schematic diagram of a partial autocorrelation function provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure
- FIG. 6 shows a schematic diagram of a predicted value and a true value provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure
- FIG. 7 shows a schematic structural diagram of a service data prediction apparatus provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure
- FIG. 8 shows a schematic structural diagram of another service data prediction apparatus provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure.
- Fig. 9 schematically shows a block diagram of an electronic device for performing the method according to the present disclosure.
- Fig. 10 schematically shows a storage unit for holding or carrying program codes for implementing the method according to the present disclosure.
- the method for predicting business data may specifically include the following steps:
- Step 101 Obtain historical business data of the same period corresponding to a specified time period.
- the embodiments of the present disclosure can be applied to a scenario in which an ARIMA model is used to predict business data in a certain period of time in the future.
- the business data can be stock prices, house prices, sales, visits, gross domestic product (Gross Domestic Product, GDP), enterprise user load, temperature and other data.
- the business data can be one or more of the above. Specifically, it can be determined according to business requirements, which is not limited in this embodiment.
- the load of enterprise users can be the load of electricity, water, and resources undertaken by the enterprise.
- ARIMA AR is "autoregressive"
- p is the number of autoregressive terms
- MA is "moving average”
- q is the number of moving average terms
- d is the number of differences made to make it a stationary series (Order).
- the model needs to determine the order p, which means to predict the current value with the historical value of several periods.
- the model formula is:
- y t is the current value
- u is a constant
- p is the order
- ⁇ t is the error value
- the moving average model focuses on the accumulation of error terms in the autoregressive model.
- the formula for the q-order autoregressive process is:
- y t is the current value
- u is a constant
- q is the order
- ⁇ i is the error coefficient
- ⁇ t is the error.
- the autoregressive model AR and the moving average model MA are combined to get the autoregressive moving average model ARMA(p, q), the calculation formula is as follows:
- the order of difference in data stationarity processing that is, non-stationary data is stationary after several orders of difference.
- the designated time period refers to a certain time period in the future that requires business data prediction. If the stock price of the whole day is predicted tomorrow, the whole day tomorrow will be the designated time period, or the power consumption between 9:00 and 12:00 tomorrow will be Today 9:00 ⁇ 12:00 as the designated time and so on.
- Historical business data refers to the historical data that belongs to the same period with the specified time period, that is, the business data of the same historical period. For example, if the electricity consumption between 9:00 and 12:00 tomorrow is needed, then 9:00 to 12 tomorrow: 00 is the designated time period.
- the historical period can be from 9:00 to 12:00 yesterday, 9:00 to 12:00 the day before yesterday, and so on.
- the historical business data corresponding to the specified time period can be obtained.
- the historical business database can be stored in advance to filter out the historical business data in the specified time period from the database.
- the business data of the same period is used as historical business data.
- step 102 After acquiring the historical business data corresponding to the specified time period in the same period of time, step 102 is executed.
- Step 102 Determine the initial model parameters corresponding to the prediction model according to the historical service data.
- the prediction model refers to a model used to predict future business data.
- the prediction model is preferably an ARIMA model.
- the ARIMA model is used to describe this embodiment.
- the initial model parameters refer to the parameters required to run the prediction model.
- the necessary parameters are d, p, and q (that is, the parameters described in step 101 above).
- the second-order prediction method is adopted, and the initial model parameters are the model parameters required for the operation of the prediction model during the first-order prediction.
- the initial model parameters corresponding to the ARIMA model can be determined based on the historical business data. After the model parameters are available, the ARIMA model can be run normally. The process of how to determine the initial model parameters will be described in detail in the following embodiments, which will not be repeated in this embodiment.
- step 103 is executed.
- Step 103 Invoke the prediction model to obtain a first prediction result and a prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period according to the initial model parameters and the historical service data.
- This embodiment adopts a two-level prediction method, and the first prediction result is the result obtained by the first-level prediction.
- the prediction residual value refers to the residual value obtained when predicting the prediction result for a specified period of time.
- the ARIMA model can be called to predict the business data within a specified period of time based on the initial model parameters and historical business data, so as to obtain the first prediction result and the predicted residual value.
- the prediction process can be described in detail in the following embodiments, and this embodiment will not be repeated here.
- step 104 After the prediction model is invoked to predict the first prediction result and the prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period according to the initial model parameters and historical service data, step 104 is performed.
- Step 104 Determine the target model parameter corresponding to the prediction model according to the prediction residual value.
- the target model parameters refer to the model parameters of the operational prediction model obtained by retraining the prediction model through the initial prediction residual value obtained by the first-order prediction.
- an initial prediction residual value is generated, and the initial prediction residual value can be used to re-determine the model parameters of the prediction model, that is, the target model parameters.
- the process is similar to the process of determining the initial model parameters, and will not be repeated in this embodiment.
- step 105 is further executed.
- Step 105 Invoke the prediction model to process the prediction residual value according to the target model parameters and the historical service data to obtain a second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period.
- the second prediction result refers to the prediction result obtained by calling the ARIMA model to perform a second-order prediction on the prediction residual value generated in the first-order prediction process.
- ARIMA When the ARIMA model is called to predict the business data for a specified period of time, a predicted residual value is generated, and then ARIMA can be called to perform a second-order prediction of the predicted residual value based on the retrieved target model parameters and historical business data, and further, the specified The second prediction result corresponding to the time period.
- the process will be described in detail in the following embodiments, and will not be repeated in this embodiment.
- the prediction residual value is processed according to the target model parameters and the historical service data to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period, and then step 106 is performed.
- Step 106 Determine the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result.
- Predicted data refers to the predicted business data in the specified time period in the future obtained by using the ARIMA model.
- the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period can be determined by combining the first prediction result and the second prediction result, that is, the second prediction result is used.
- the prediction result corrects the first prediction result, so as to obtain the final predicted service data in the specified time period.
- the business data prediction method obtaineds the historical business data corresponding to the designated period of time when the business data in a designated period of time in the future needs to be predicted, and determines the corresponding prediction model based on the historical business data.
- Initial model parameters call the prediction model.
- the first prediction result and prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period are predicted, and the target model parameters corresponding to the prediction model are determined according to the prediction residual value.
- the prediction model is called according to
- the target model parameters and historical business data are processed to predict residual values to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period, and the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period is determined according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result.
- the embodiment of the present disclosure can improve the accuracy of data prediction by adopting a two-stage prediction method.
- the method for predicting service data may specifically include the following steps:
- Step 201 Obtain the initial historical business data of the same historical period.
- the embodiments of the present disclosure can be applied to a scenario in which an ARIMA model is used to predict business data in a certain period of time in the future.
- the business data may be data such as stock price, house price, sales, visits, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), temperature, etc.
- the business data may be at least one of the foregoing data. Specifically, it can be determined according to business requirements, which is not limited in this embodiment.
- ARIMA AR is "autoregressive"
- p is the number of autoregressive terms
- MA is "moving average”
- q is the number of moving average terms
- d is the number of differences made to make it a stationary series (Order).
- the model needs to determine the order p, which means to predict the current value with the historical value of several periods.
- the model formula is:
- y t is the current value
- u is a constant
- p is the order
- ⁇ t is the error value
- the moving average model focuses on the accumulation of error terms in the autoregressive model.
- the formula for the q-order autoregressive process is:
- y t is the current value
- u is a constant
- q is the order
- ⁇ i is the error coefficient
- ⁇ t is the error.
- the autoregressive model AR and the moving average model MA are combined to get the autoregressive moving average model ARMA(p, q), the calculation formula is as follows:
- the order of difference in data stationarity processing that is, non-stationary data is stationary after several orders of difference.
- the core function of short-term load forecasting is to predict the future short-term (15 minutes, daily) electricity load based on the historical electricity load of enterprise-level users, and provide a reference for the electricity sales business in the electric spot transaction for transaction declaration and deviation price difference calculation. in accordance with.
- the electricity load is used as business data for prediction.
- the designated time period refers to a certain time period in the future that requires business data prediction. If the stock price of the whole day is predicted tomorrow, the whole day tomorrow will be the designated time period, or the power consumption between 9:00 and 12:00 tomorrow will be Today 9:00 ⁇ 12:00 as the designated time and so on.
- the historical period refers to the past simultaneous period corresponding to the specified time period. For example, if the electricity consumption between 9:00 and 12:00 tomorrow is required, then tomorrow 9:00 to 12:00 will be the specified time period.
- the historical period can be It is from 9:00 to 12:00 yesterday, 9:00 to 12:00 the day before yesterday, and so on.
- the initial historical business data refers to the acquired business data of the same historical period that has not yet been screened.
- the initial historical business data corresponding to the specified time period can be obtained.
- the historical business database can be stored in advance to filter out the data that is in the same historical period with the specified time period.
- Business data as initial historical business data.
- step 202 is executed.
- Step 202 Filter the initial historical business data to obtain the historical business data.
- the initial historical business data can be screened to obtain the historical business data.
- the specific screening process can be described in detail in conjunction with the following specific implementation manners.
- the foregoing step 202 may include:
- Sub-step S1 Calculate the average value and standard deviation corresponding to the initial historical service data.
- the average value refers to the average value of the initial historical business data.
- the initial historical business data is 10 pieces of data
- the 10 pieces of data can be added together, and then divided by 10 to obtain the average value. .
- the standard deviation also known as the mean square deviation, refers to the standard deviation of the initial historical business data. It is most commonly used as a measure of the degree of statistical distribution in probability statistics.
- the definition of standard deviation is the square root of the square root of the square of the deviation of the standard value of each unit of the population from its mean.
- the average value and standard deviation corresponding to the initial historical business data can be calculated.
- the specific calculation process is not described in detail in this embodiment.
- the sub-step S2 is executed.
- Sub-step S2 Calculate the difference between the initial historical business data and the average value, and if the difference is greater than a preset threshold, remove the initial historical business data corresponding to the difference to obtain the historical business data.
- the preset threshold may be a product value of the standard deviation and a preset multiple, and the preset multiple refers to a multiple preset by business personnel for screening initial historical business data.
- the preset multiple is preferably 3 times.
- the difference between the initial historical business data and the average value can be calculated. Then, the initial historical business data whose difference is greater than the preset multiple is eliminated, and the remaining is the historical business data that needs to be subsequently predicted.
- step 203 and step 204 are executed.
- Step 203 Perform differential processing on the historical service data to obtain the first model parameter corresponding to the prediction model.
- the first model parameter refers to the parameter required for the operation of ARIMA.
- the first model parameter is the parameter d shown in step 201 above. That is, the first model parameter is the difference order.
- the historical business data may be subjected to differential processing to obtain the first model parameter. Specifically, it may be described in detail in conjunction with the following specific implementation manners.
- the foregoing step 203 may include:
- Sub-step M1 Determine the data stability of the historical business data.
- data stability refers to the characteristics of whether historical business data is stable.
- Time sequence diagram if the sequence always fluctuates randomly around a constant value, the fluctuation range is bounded, and there is no obvious trend or periodicity, it can be considered as a stationary sequence. As shown in Figure 3, the left picture is non-stationary, and the right picture is a stationary series.
- ADF unit root test can accurately judge the stability.
- sub-step M2 or M3 is executed.
- Sub-step M2 When the historical service data is stationarity data, determine that the first model parameter is 0.
- Sub-step M3 In the case that the historical service data is non-stationary data, perform n-th order difference processing on the historical service data; where n is a positive integer greater than or equal to 1.
- the historical business data can be processed with n-order difference processing. Specifically, when the historical business data is non-stationary data, the historical business data can be sequentially first-differentiated After processing the data with the second-order difference, the third-order difference, or the logarithm, the first-order and second-order difference methods are used to test stationarity until a stationary sequence is obtained.
- Sub-step M4 In the case that the historical business data after the n-th order difference processing is stationarity data, use the n as the first model parameter.
- n when performing n-order difference processing on historical service data, and the historical service data after n-order difference processing is flat satellite data, use n as the first model parameter, for example, after performing second-order difference processing on historical service data , When the obtained historical business data is stationarity data, use 2 as the first model parameter.
- Step 204 Perform order processing on the historical service data to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter corresponding to the prediction model.
- the second model parameter and the third model parameter are the p and q shown in step 201 above, that is, the order of the best ARIMA model.
- the third model parameter is q; and when the second model parameter is q, the third model parameter is q.
- it can be based on business requirements.
- this embodiment does not impose restrictions on this.
- the historical business data can be subjected to order processing to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter. Specifically, the following two methods can be used to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter.
- Method 1 Determine the values of p and q according to the autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function.
- the autocorrelation function ACF describes the linear correlation between time series observations and their past observations.
- the partial autocorrelation function PACF describes the linear correlation between the time series observations and the past observations given the intermediate observations.
- ACF diagram shown in Figure 4
- PACF diagram shown in 2c
- Method 2 Information criterion setting. At present, the following criteria are commonly used in selecting models: (where L is the likelihood function, k is the number of parameters, and n is the number of observations).
- AIC -2ln(L)+2k: Akaike information volume, akaike information criterion
- BIC -2ln(L)+ln(n)*k: Bayesian information amount, bayesian information criterion
- the AIC criterion is commonly used, and it is necessary to avoid overfitting as much as possible. Therefore, the preferred model should be the one with the smallest AIC value. You can also try each criterion in turn and choose the best.
- the ARIMA model After determining the parameters d, p, and q, use the ARIMA model to make predictions. If d is not equal to 0, the difference or logarithmic operation is used in the stationarity processing, and the predicted load value needs to be inversely calculated to obtain the predicted load value. As shown in Figure 6, the results of the predicted value and the true value are displayed. Among them, the curve at the top when the time is 30 is the curve corresponding to the true value, and the curve at the bottom when the time is 30 is the predicted value. Curve.
- step 205 is executed.
- Step 205 Invoke the prediction model to predict the business data of the second historical period according to the initial model parameters and the first historical business data of the first historical period to obtain the predicted business of the second historical period data.
- the historical period may include the first historical period and the second historical period.
- the first historical period is earlier than the second historical period.
- the specified time period is tomorrow morning from 9:00 to 12:00.
- the second historical period can be from 9:00 to 12:00 yesterday morning
- the third historical period can be from 9:00 to 12:00 the day before yesterday.
- the first historical business data refers to the business data obtained from the first historical period in the same period.
- the second historical business data refers to the business data obtained during the same period in the second history.
- the predicted business data in the second historical period refers to the predicted business data obtained by predicting the business data in the second historical period. That is, the predicted business data of the second historical period.
- the ARIMA model can be invoked to predict the business data of the second historical period based on the initial model parameters and the first historical business data of the first historical period to obtain predicted business data.
- Step 206 Calculate the predicted residual value according to the predicted service data and the second historical service data of the second historical period.
- the predicted residual value can be obtained based on the predicted business data and the second historical business data of the second historical period. Specifically, the predicted residual value can be obtained based on the predicted business data and the real first 2.
- the historical business data is used to calculate the predicted residual value. For example, taking the forecast of 15 minutes of electricity consumption in the next day as an example, y 1 , y 2 ,..., y n are the true values, and p 1 , p 2 ,.
- step 207 is executed.
- Step 207 Invoke the prediction model to predict the service data within the specified time period according to the initial model parameters, the first historical service data and the second historical service data, to obtain the first prediction result.
- This embodiment adopts a two-level prediction method, and the first prediction result is the result obtained by the first-level prediction.
- the prediction residual value refers to the residual value obtained when predicting the prediction result for a specified period of time.
- the ARIMA model can be called according to the model parameters and the first historical business data and the second historical business data Predict the business data in the specified time period to obtain the first prediction result.
- step 208 is executed.
- Step 208 Determine the target model parameter corresponding to the prediction model according to the prediction residual value.
- the target model parameters refer to the model parameters of the operational prediction model obtained by retraining the prediction model through the initial prediction residual value obtained by the first-order prediction.
- an initial prediction residual value is generated, and the initial prediction residual value can be used to re-determine the model parameters of the prediction model, that is, the target model parameters.
- the process is similar to the process of determining the initial model parameters, and will not be repeated in this embodiment.
- step 209 is further executed.
- Step 209 Invoke the prediction model to process the prediction residual value according to the target model parameters and the historical service data to obtain a second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period.
- the second prediction result refers to the prediction result obtained by calling the ARIMA model to perform a second-order prediction on the prediction residual value generated in the first-order prediction process.
- the ARIMA model When the ARIMA model is called to predict the business data for a specified period of time, a predicted residual value is generated, and then ARIMA can be called to perform a second-order prediction of the predicted residual value based on the re-determined target model parameters and historical business data, and then the specified The second prediction result corresponding to the time period.
- the obtained residual sequence can be predicted to obtain the second prediction result.
- the specific prediction method may be: if d is not equal to 0, difference or logarithmic operation is used in the stationarity processing, and the predicted load value needs to be inversely calculated on the prediction result.
- the second prediction result is the correction parameter of the first prediction result, that is, the second prediction result is used to correct the first prediction result, so as to obtain the required predicted service data.
- step 210 is executed.
- Step 210 Obtain the sum value between the first prediction result and the second prediction result, and use the sum value as the prediction data for the specified time period.
- the first prediction result and the second prediction result can be added, so that the prediction data of a specified time period can be obtained.
- the business data prediction method obtaineds the historical business data corresponding to the designated period of time when the business data in a designated period of time in the future needs to be predicted, and determines the corresponding prediction model based on the historical business data.
- Initial model parameters call the prediction model.
- the first prediction result and prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period are predicted, and the target model parameters corresponding to the prediction model are determined according to the prediction residual value.
- the prediction model is called according to
- the target model parameters and historical business data are processed to predict residual values to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period, and the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period is determined according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result.
- the embodiment of the present disclosure can improve the accuracy of data prediction by adopting a two-stage prediction method.
- the service data prediction device may specifically include the following modules:
- the historical data obtaining module 310 is used to obtain historical business data of the same period corresponding to a specified time period
- the model parameter determination module 320 is configured to determine the initial model parameters corresponding to the prediction model according to the historical business data
- the first result prediction module 330 is configured to call the prediction model to obtain the first prediction result and the prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period according to the initial model parameters and the historical service data;
- the target parameter determination module 340 is configured to determine the target model parameter corresponding to the prediction model according to the prediction residual value
- the second result prediction module 350 is configured to call the target prediction model to process the prediction residual value according to the model parameters and the historical business data to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period;
- the prediction data determining module 360 is configured to determine the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result.
- the business data prediction device obtains historical business data corresponding to the specified time period and determines the corresponding prediction model based on the historical business data when the business data in the specified time period in the future needs to be predicted.
- Initial model parameters call the prediction model.
- the first prediction result and prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period are predicted, and the target model parameters corresponding to the prediction model are determined according to the prediction residual value.
- the prediction model is called according to The target model parameters and historical business data are processed to predict residual values to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period, and the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period is determined according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result.
- the embodiment of the present disclosure can improve the accuracy of data prediction by adopting a two-stage prediction method.
- the service data prediction device may specifically include the following modules:
- the historical data obtaining module 410 is used to obtain historical business data corresponding to a specified period of time in the same period of history;
- the model parameter determination module 420 is configured to determine the initial model parameters corresponding to the prediction model according to the historical business data
- the first result prediction module 430 is configured to call the prediction model to obtain the first prediction result and the prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period according to the initial model parameters and the historical service data;
- the target parameter determination model 440 is used to determine the target model parameter corresponding to the prediction model according to the prediction residual value
- the second result prediction module 450 is configured to call the prediction model to process the prediction residual value according to the target model parameters and the historical business data to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period;
- the prediction data determining module 460 is configured to determine the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result.
- the service data is enterprise user load
- the historical data acquisition module 410 includes:
- the historical load obtaining unit is used to obtain the historical enterprise user load corresponding to the specified period of time in the same period when the enterprise user load needs to be predicted in the specified period in the future;
- the model parameter determination module 420 includes:
- An initial parameter determining unit configured to determine initial model parameters corresponding to the prediction model according to the historical enterprise user load
- the first result prediction module 430 includes:
- the first result prediction unit is configured to call the prediction model to obtain the first prediction result and the prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period according to the initial model parameters and the historical enterprise user load;
- the second result prediction module 450 includes:
- a second result obtaining unit configured to call the prediction model to process the prediction residual value according to the target model parameter and the historical enterprise user load to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period;
- the prediction data determining module 460 includes:
- the predicted load determining unit is configured to determine the predicted enterprise user load corresponding to the specified time period according to the first predicted result and the second predicted result.
- the historical data acquisition module 410 includes:
- the initial business data acquiring unit 411 is configured to acquire the initial historical business data of the same historical period
- the historical business data screening unit 412 is configured to filter the initial historical business data to obtain the historical business data.
- the historical service data screening unit 412 includes:
- the standard deviation calculation subunit is used to calculate the average value and standard deviation corresponding to the initial historical business data
- the historical data acquisition subunit is used to calculate the difference between the initial historical business data and the average value, and if the difference is greater than a preset threshold, remove the initial historical business data corresponding to the difference to obtain The historical business data.
- the model parameter determination module 420 includes:
- the first model parameter obtaining unit 421 is configured to perform differential processing on the historical service data to obtain the first model parameter corresponding to the prediction model;
- the second model parameter obtaining unit 422 is configured to perform order processing on the historical service data to obtain the second model parameter and the third model parameter corresponding to the prediction model.
- the first model parameter obtaining unit 421 includes:
- a data stationarity determination subunit for determining the data stationarity of the historical business data
- the model parameter determination subunit is configured to determine that the first model parameter is 0 when the historical business data is stationarity data;
- the data difference processing subunit is configured to perform n-th order difference processing on the historical business data when the historical business data is non-stationary data; where n is a positive integer greater than or equal to 1;
- the first parameter acquisition subunit is configured to use the n as the first model parameter when the historical business data after the n-th order difference processing is stationarity data.
- the historical period includes a first historical period and a second historical period, the first historical period is earlier than the second historical period, and the first result prediction module 430 includes:
- the predicted service data obtaining unit 431 is configured to call the prediction model to predict the service data of the second historical period according to the initial model parameters and the first historical service data of the first historical period to obtain the first historical period. 2. Forecast business data for the same period in history;
- a predicted residual value calculation unit 432 configured to calculate the predicted residual value according to the predicted service data and the second historical service data in the same period of the second history;
- the first prediction result obtaining unit 433 is configured to call the prediction model to predict the service data within the specified time period according to the initial model parameters, the first historical service data, and the second historical service data, to obtain The first prediction result.
- the prediction data determining module 460 includes:
- the prediction data obtaining unit 461 is configured to obtain the sum value between the first prediction result and the second prediction result, and use the sum value as the prediction data for the specified time period.
- the business data prediction device obtains historical business data corresponding to the specified time period and determines the corresponding prediction model based on the historical business data when the business data in the specified time period in the future needs to be predicted.
- Initial model parameters call the prediction model.
- the first prediction result and prediction residual value corresponding to the specified time period are predicted, and the target model parameters corresponding to the prediction model are determined according to the prediction residual value.
- the prediction model is called according to The target model parameters and historical business data are processed to predict residual values to obtain the second prediction result corresponding to the specified time period, and the prediction data corresponding to the specified time period is determined according to the first prediction result and the second prediction result.
- the embodiment of the present disclosure can improve the accuracy of data prediction by adopting a two-stage prediction method.
- an embodiment of the present disclosure also provides an electronic device, including: a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor.
- a processor executes the program, Realize the business data prediction method described in any one of the above.
- the embodiments of the present disclosure also provide a computer-readable storage medium, which when the instructions in the storage medium are executed by the processor of the electronic device, enables the electronic device to execute the business data prediction method described in any one of the above.
- the device embodiments described above are merely illustrative.
- the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in One place, or it can be distributed to multiple network units.
- Some or all of the modules can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the objectives of the solutions of the embodiments. Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without creative work.
- the various component embodiments of the present disclosure may be implemented by hardware, or by software modules running on one or more processors, or by a combination of them.
- a microprocessor or a digital signal processor (DSP) may be used in practice to implement some or all of the functions of some or all of the components in the electronic device according to the embodiments of the present disclosure.
- DSP digital signal processor
- the present disclosure can also be implemented as a device or device program (for example, a computer program and a computer program product) for executing part or all of the methods described herein.
- Such a program for realizing the present disclosure may be stored on a computer-readable medium, or may have the form of one or more signals.
- Such a signal can be downloaded from an Internet website, or provided on a carrier signal, or provided in any other form.
- FIG. 9 shows an electronic device that can implement the method according to the present disclosure.
- the electronic device traditionally includes a processor 1010 and a computer program product in the form of a memory 1020 or a computer-readable medium.
- the memory 1020 may be an electronic memory such as flash memory, EEPROM (Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory), EPROM, hard disk, or ROM.
- the memory 1020 has a storage space 1030 for executing program codes 1031 of any method steps in the above methods.
- the storage space 1030 for program codes may include various program codes 1031 respectively used to implement various steps in the above method. These program codes can be read from or written into one or more computer program products.
- These computer program products include program code carriers such as hard disks, compact disks (CDs), memory cards, or floppy disks.
- Such a computer program product is usually a portable or fixed storage unit as described with reference to FIG. 10.
- the storage unit may have storage segments, storage spaces, etc. arranged similarly to the storage 1020 in the electronic device of FIG. 9.
- the program code can be compressed in an appropriate form, for example.
- the storage unit includes computer-readable codes 1031', that is, codes that can be read by, for example, a processor such as 1010. These codes, when run by an electronic device, cause the electronic device to execute each of the methods described above. step.
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Abstract
Description
Claims (21)
- 一种业务数据预测方法,包括:获取与指定时段对应的历史同期的历史业务数据;根据所述历史业务数据,确定预测模型对应的初始模型参数;调用所述预测模型根据所述初始模型参数和所述历史业务数据,预测得到所述指定时段对应的第一预测结果和预测残差值;根据所述预测残差值,确定所述预测模型对应的目标模型参数;调用所述预测模型根据所述目标模型参数和所述历史业务数据,对所述预测残差值进行处理,得到所述指定时段对应的第二预测结果;根据所述第一预测结果和所述第二预测结果,确定所述指定时段对应的预测数据。
- 根据权利要求1所述的方法,其中,所述业务数据为企业用户负荷。
- 根据权利要求1或2所述的方法,其中,所述获取与所述指定时段对应的历史同期的历史业务数据,包括:获取所述历史同期的初始历史业务数据;对所述初始历史业务数据进行筛选,得到所述历史业务数据。
- 根据权利要求3所述的方法,其中,所述对所述初始历史业务数据进行筛选,得到所述历史业务数据,包括:计算所述初始历史业务数据对应的平均值和标准差;计算所述初始历史业务数据与所述平均值的差值,在所述差值大于预设阈值的情况下,剔除所述差值对应的初始历史业务数据,得到所述历史业务数据。
- 根据权利要求4所述的方法,其中,所述预设阈值为所述标准差与预设倍数的乘积值。
- 根据权利要求1或2所述的方法,其中,所述根据所述历史业务数据,确定预测模型对应的初始模型参数,包括:对所述历史业务数据进行差分处理,得到所述预测模型对应的第一模型参数;对所述历史业务数据进行定阶处理,得到所述预测模型对应的第二模型参数和第三模型参数。
- 根据权利要求6所述的方法,其中,所述对所述历史业务数据进行差分处理,得到所述预测模型对应的第一模型参数,包括:确定所述历史业务数据的数据平稳性;在所述历史业务数据为平稳性数据的情况下,确定所述第一模型参数为0;在所述历史业务数据为非平稳性数据的情况下,对所述历史业务数据进 行n阶差分处理;其中,n为大于等于1的正整数;在进行所述n阶差分处理后的历史业务数据为平稳性数据的情况下,将所述n作为所述第一模型参数。
- 根据权利要求7所述的方法,其中,所述确定所述历史业务数据的数据平稳性,包括:调用所述历史业务数据的时序图,在所述历史业务数据在时间序列上围绕一个常数值随机波动,且波动范围小于预设范围的情况下,则确定所述历史业务数据为平稳序列。
- 根据权利要求7所述的方法,其中,所述确定所述历史业务数据的数据平稳性,包括:调用单位根检验模型对所述历史业务数据进行平稳性检验,在检验统计量对应的概率值小于0.05的情况下,确定所述历史业务数据为平稳序列。
- 根据权利要求6所述的方法,其中,所述对所述历史业务数据进行定阶处理,得到所述预测模型对应的第二模型参数和第三模型参数,包括:根据自相关函数和偏自相关函数,得到所述第二模型参数和所述第三模型参数。
- 根据权利要求6所述的方法,其中,所述对所述历史业务数据进行定阶处理,得到所述预测模型对应的第二模型参数和第三模型参数,包括:根据信息准则进行定阶处理,得到所述第二模型参数和所述第三模型参数。
- 根据权利要求1或2所述的方法,其中,所述历史同期包括第一历史同期和第二历史同期,所述第一历史同期的时间早于所述第二历史同期,所述调用所述预测模型根据所述初始模型参数和所述历史业务数据,预测得到所述指定时段对应的第一预测结果和预测残差值,包括:调用所述预测模型根据所述初始模型参数和所述第一历史同期的第一历史业务数据对所述第二历史同期的业务数据进行预测,得到所述第二历史同期的预测业务数据;根据所述预测业务数据和所述第二历史同期的第二历史业务数据,计算得到所述预测残差值;调用所述预测模型根据所述初始模型参数、所述第一历史业务数据和所述第二历史业务数据对所述指定时段内的业务数据进行预测,得到所述第一预测结果。
- 根据权利要求12所述的方法,其中,根据所述预测业务数据和所述第二历史同期的第二历史业务数据,计算得到所述预测残差值,包括:计算所述第二历史业务数据与对应的所述预测业务数据的差值,将所述差值确定为所述预测残差值。
- 根据权利要求1-13任一所述的方法,其中,所述根据所述第一预测结果和所述第二预测结果,确定所述指定时段对应的预测数据,包括:获取所述第一预测结果和所述第二预测结果之间的和值,并将所述和值作为所述指定时段的预测数据。
- 一种业务数据预测装置,其中,包括:历史数据获取模块,用于在需要对未来的指定时段内的业务数据进行预测时,获取与所述指定时段对应的历史同期的历史业务数据;模型参数确定模块,用于根据所述历史业务数据,确定预测模型对应的初始模型参数;第一结果预测模块,用于调用所述预测模型根据所述初始模型参数和所述历史业务数据,预测得到所述指定时段对应的第一预测结果和预测残差值;目标参数确定模块,用于根据所述预测残差值,确定所述预测模型对应的目标模型参数;第二结果预测模块,用于调用所述预测模型根据所述目标模型参数和所述历史业务数据,对所述预测残差值进行处理,得到所述指定时段对应的第二预测结果;预测数据确定模块,用于根据所述第一预测结果和所述第二预测结果,确定所述指定时段对应的预测数据。
- 根据权利要求15所述的装置,其中,所述历史数据获取模块,包括:初始业务数据获取单元,用于获取所述历史同期的初始历史业务数据;历史业务数据筛选单元,用于对所述初始历史业务数据进行筛选,得到所述历史业务数据。
- 根据权利要求15所述的装置,其中,所述模型参数确定模块,包括:第一模型参数获取单元,用于对所述历史业务数据进行差分处理,得到所述预测模型对应的第一模型参数;第二模型参数获取单元,用于对所述历史业务数据进行定阶处理,得到所述预测模型对应的第二模型参数和第三模型参数。
- 根据权利要求15所述的装置,其中,所述历史同期包括第一历史同期和第二历史同期,所述第一历史同期的时间早于所述第二历史同期,所述第一结果预测模块,包括:预测业务数据获取单元,用于调用所述预测模型根据所述初始模型参数和所述第一历史同期的第一历史业务数据对所述第二历史同期的业务数据进行预测,得到所述第二历史同期的预测业务数据;预测残差值计算单元,用于根据所述预测业务数据和所述第二历史同期的第二历史业务数据,计算得到所述预测残差值;第一预测结果获取单元,用于调用所述预测模型根据所述初始模型参数、 所述第一历史业务数据和所述第二历史业务数据对所述指定时段内的业务数据进行预测,得到所述第一预测结果。
- 一种电子设备,其中,包括:处理器、存储器以及存储在所述存储器上并可在所述处理器上运行的计算机程序,所述处理器执行所述程序时实现权利要求1至14任一项所述的业务数据预测方法。
- 一种计算机可读存储介质,其中,当所述存储介质中的指令由电子设备的处理器执行时,使得电子设备能够执行权利要求1至14任一项所述的业务数据预测方法。
- 一种计算机程序,包括计算机可读代码,当所述计算机可读代码在电子设备上运行时,导致所述电子设备执行根据权利要求1至14中任一项所述的业务数据预测方法。
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