WO2021149096A1 - Dispositif de commande de puissance électrique, procédé de commande de puissance électrique, et programme - Google Patents

Dispositif de commande de puissance électrique, procédé de commande de puissance électrique, et programme Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2021149096A1
WO2021149096A1 PCT/JP2020/001642 JP2020001642W WO2021149096A1 WO 2021149096 A1 WO2021149096 A1 WO 2021149096A1 JP 2020001642 W JP2020001642 W JP 2020001642W WO 2021149096 A1 WO2021149096 A1 WO 2021149096A1
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Prior art keywords
power generation
power
generation output
facilities
distribution
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PCT/JP2020/001642
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English (en)
Japanese (ja)
Inventor
飛仙 平田
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三菱電機株式会社
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Priority to PCT/JP2020/001642 priority Critical patent/WO2021149096A1/fr
Priority to JP2021559581A priority patent/JP6987331B1/ja
Publication of WO2021149096A1 publication Critical patent/WO2021149096A1/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
    • H02J3/46—Controlling of the sharing of output between the generators, converters, or transformers
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Definitions

  • the present disclosure relates to a power control device, a power control method, and a program for controlling a plurality of power facilities.
  • power generation equipment using renewable energy such as solar power generation or wind power generation.
  • the power output of a power generation facility using renewable energy fluctuates greatly depending on the weather conditions such as wind power or solar radiation. Therefore, if the actual power generation output exceeds the expected power generation output and the power supply becomes excessive, the power generation output in the power generation facility using renewable energy may be suppressed.
  • power generation equipment using renewable energy is simply referred to as “power generation equipment”.
  • Patent Document 1 describes an output suppression management device that manages a power conditioner provided in each of a plurality of power generation facilities.
  • the power conditioner converts the DC power from the solar cell into AC power and controls the power output in the power generation facility.
  • the output suppression management device sets the power generation amount limit value so that the total power generation amount, which is the sum of the power generation amounts controlled by the plurality of power conditioners, does not exceed the total power generation amount upper limit value.
  • Each of the plurality of power conditioners suppresses the power generation output in the power generation facility based on the power generation amount limit value set by the output suppression management device.
  • the total of the upper limit values of the power generation output of the individual power generation facilities to be controlled is the power generation of the entire power generation facility. Control so that the output upper limit is not exceeded.
  • the power generation output of each power generation facility changes from moment to moment, it may be lower than the power generation output upper limit set for each power generation facility.
  • the power generation output of the entire power generation equipment is smaller than the total of the power generation output upper limit values of the individual power generation equipment, there is a problem that the power generation output is lower than the power generation output upper limit of the entire power generation equipment and becomes excessively suppressed. there were. If this problem is solved by the power control described in Patent Document 1, real-time control capable of following the momentary change in the power generation output of each power generation facility is required.
  • the present disclosure solves the above problems, and is not limited to real-time control of electric power in individual electric power facilities, and can reduce the loss of power generation opportunities due to suppression of power generation output, and electric power control methods and methods.
  • the purpose is to get a program.
  • the power control device includes a first distribution estimation unit that estimates the probability density distribution of power generation output in each power generation facility before controlling the power generation output among a plurality of power generation facilities, and a first distribution estimation unit. Using the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power facility estimated by the unit, the probability density distribution of the power generation output when controlled based on the control value set for each power facility is estimated. A third that estimates the probability density distribution of the total power generation output of a plurality of power facilities as a whole based on the distribution estimation unit of 2 and the probability density distribution of the power generation output of each power facility estimated by the second distribution estimation unit.
  • the control value calculation unit for calculating the control value for each electric power facility is provided.
  • the probability density distribution of the total power generation output is estimated based on the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power facility. Based on the probability density distribution of the total power generation output of the plurality of power facilities as a whole, it is determined whether or not the total power generation output of the plurality of power facilities as a whole satisfies the target value.
  • a control value for each power facility so that if it is determined that the total power output of the entire power facility does not meet the target value, the total power output of the entire power facility is more likely to meet the target value. Is calculated.
  • the electric power control device is not limited to the real-time control of electric power in each electric power facility, and can reduce the loss of power generation opportunity due to the suppression of power generation output.
  • FIG. 5A is a diagram showing the relationship between the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the individual power generation equipment 3 and the control value
  • FIG. 5B shows the controlled power generation output in the individual power generation equipment at the time X shown in FIG. 5A. It is a figure which shows the probability density distribution, and FIG.
  • FIG. 5C is a figure which shows the probability density distribution of the total power generation output in a plurality of power generation facilities as a whole. It is a table which shows the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output.
  • FIG. 7A is a diagram showing an outline of control of the power generation output in the power generation facility (1) and the power generation facility (2) based on the control value (1)
  • FIG. 7B is a diagram showing the outline of the power generation output control based on the control value (2). It is a figure which shows the outline of the control of the power generation output in (1) and power generation equipment (2).
  • FIG. 8A is a block diagram showing a hardware configuration that realizes the function of the power control device according to the first embodiment
  • FIG. 8B is a block diagram that executes software that realizes the function of the power control device according to the first embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the hardware configuration.
  • FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation control system 1 including the power control device 2 according to the first embodiment.
  • the power generation control system 1 includes a power control device 2 and a plurality of power generation facilities 3.
  • the power control device 2 controls the total power output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 as a whole by controlling the power generated by the individual power generation facilities 3 (hereinafter referred to as power generation output).
  • the power generation facility 3 is a power facility whose power is controlled by the power control device 2. Further, the power generation facility 3 is a power generation facility using renewable energy, and the power generation output fluctuates indefinitely depending on the weather conditions around the power generation facility 3. Hereinafter, it is assumed that all of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 are solar power generation facilities.
  • the electric power generated by the individual power generation facilities 3 is supplied to the commercial power system 4.
  • the commercial power system 4 may be connected to each power generation facility 3, or a plurality of power generation facilities 3 may be connected to the commercial power system 4 at one interconnection point. Further, each power generation facility 3 is connected to the power control device 2 via the communication network 5.
  • the communication network 5 is a bidirectional communication line, and is composed of, for example, the Internet, a cable television network, a general public line, a wireless line, or Ethernet (registered trademark).
  • the power control device 2 acquires the first control information from the power suppression management device 6, and controls the power generation output in the plurality of power generation facilities 3 based on the acquired first control information.
  • the power suppression management device 6 is an external management device managed by a power system operator who manages and operates the commercial power system 4, or an aggregator that aggregates a plurality of power generation companies.
  • the first control information includes a target value of the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 as a whole.
  • each power generation facility 3 includes a power generation device 31 and a control device 32.
  • the power generation device 31 is a device that generates DC power from sunlight using a photovoltaic power generation panel.
  • the control device 32 converts the DC power generated by the power generation device 31 into AC power, and outputs the converted AC power to the load or the commercial power system 4. Further, the control device 32 controls the power generation output in the power generation facility 3 based on the second control information received from the power control device 2.
  • the second control information includes control values used for controlling the power generation output in the individual power generation equipment 3.
  • FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the power control device 2.
  • the power control device 2 includes a first distribution estimation unit 21, a second distribution estimation unit 22, a third distribution estimation unit 23, a determination unit 24, a control value calculation unit 25, and a communication unit 26. To be equipped.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 estimates the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 before the suppression control of the power generation output.
  • the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output is a distribution showing the temporal fluctuation of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 estimated in the estimation target period, and is the probability density distribution of the power generation output before the suppression control of the power generation output is performed.
  • the estimated period is the future period for which you want to estimate the power output.
  • the estimated target period may be an hour-minute period such as a period 30 minutes or an hour ahead from the present, or a year-month-day unit such as a period one week ahead, one month ahead, or one year ahead. It may be a period.
  • the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the individual power generation equipment 3 is used to estimate the probability density distribution of the power generation output in the individual power generation equipment 3.
  • the second distribution estimation unit 22 uses the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the individual power generation facilities 3 estimated by the first distribution estimation unit 21 and is based on the control values set for the individual power generation facilities 3. Estimate the probability density distribution of the power generation output controlled by.
  • the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 is the power generation output estimated when each power generation facility 3 is controlled based on the control value calculated by the control value calculation unit 25 in the estimation target period. Probability density distribution.
  • the third distribution estimation unit 23 is based on the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 estimated by the second distribution estimation unit 22, and the probability density distribution of the total power generation output in the entire plurality of power generation facilities 3. To estimate.
  • the probability density distribution of the total power generation output in the entire plurality of power generation facilities 3 is the sum of the probability density distributions of the power generation output estimated for each power generation facility 3 by the second distribution estimation unit 22.
  • the determination unit 24 determines whether the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 satisfies the target value based on the probability density distribution of the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 estimated by the third distribution estimation unit 23. Judge whether or not. For example, whether or not the total power generation output satisfies the target value is determined by whether or not the determination condition that the probability that the total power generation output exceeds the target value is equal to or less than a certain ratio is satisfied.
  • the control value calculation unit 25 calculates the control value used for estimating the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3. Further, when the determination unit 24 determines that the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 as a whole does not satisfy the target value, the control value calculation unit 25 satisfies the target value of the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 as a whole. A control value for each power generation facility 3 is calculated so as to increase the possibility.
  • the communication unit 26 includes a reception unit 26A and a transmission unit 26B.
  • the receiving unit 26A receives information from an external device. For example, the receiving unit 26A receives information from the power generation facility 3 or an external device that manages weather information via the communication network 5. Further, the receiving unit 26A receives information from the power suppression management device 6 via a communication network (communication network 5 or another communication network). The weather information around the power generation facility 3, the information indicating the power generation output of each power generation facility 3, and the first control information are received by the receiving unit 26A.
  • the transmission unit 26B transmits information to an external device via the communication network 5.
  • the transmission unit 26B transmits the second control information to the individual power generation facilities 3 via the communication network 5.
  • the power control device 2 does not have to include the communication unit 26.
  • the power control device 2 exchanges information with the external device via a communication device provided separately from the power control device 2.
  • FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the power control method according to the first embodiment, and shows a series of processes in which the power control device 2 controls the power generation output in the plurality of power generation facilities 3.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 estimates the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 among the plurality of power generation facilities 3 managed by the power generation control system 1 (step ST1).
  • the communication unit 26 receives the weather information around each power generation facility 3 estimated in the estimation target period from the external device via the communication network 5.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 estimates the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 based on the weather information around the power generation facility 3.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 may estimate the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output from the nearest power generation output record or the like in each power generation facility 3 without using the weather information around the power generation facility 3.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 cannot estimate the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output before the control by using the nearest power generation output record.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 estimates the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output before control using the meteorological information.
  • the weather information the weather information at the point where the power generation facility 3 exists is most preferable. Therefore, the weather information can be obtained not only from the external weather server but also from the observation device provided by the power generation facility 3 itself.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 includes a database in which past weather information and actual information of power generation output for each power generation facility 3 are associated with each other.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 estimates the meteorological elements in the estimation target period based on the meteorological information received by the communication unit 26, and extracts the actual information of the power generation output corresponding to the estimated values of the meteorological elements from the database. ..
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 identifies individual power generation by specifying the actual value of the power generation output for each time in the estimation target period based on the estimated value of the meteorological element in the estimation target period and the actual information of the power generation output. Estimate the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the equipment 3.
  • the database may be provided by an external device provided separately from the power control device 2.
  • the external device is, for example, a weather information management device, a power generation output performance management device, a power generation output prediction device, or the like.
  • FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an outline of the process of estimating the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3.
  • the upper figure in FIG. 4 is a graph showing the actual value of the power generation output corresponding to the actual value of the amount of solar radiation.
  • the actual value distribution A of the power generation output is the distribution of the actual value of the power generation output obtained from the actual value of the past solar radiation amount under the same or similar conditions as the estimation target period.
  • the actual value of the amount of solar radiation may be the actual value of the estimated value of the amount of solar radiation estimated from the measured value of the amount of solar radiation in the vicinity, the actual value of the forecast value of the amount of solar radiation, or the like.
  • the curve A1 is a curve showing the average value of the actual values of the power generation output in the actual value distribution A.
  • the curve A1 is not the data used for the power control device 2 according to the first embodiment, but is shown for convenience of explanation.
  • the lower figure in FIG. 4 is a graph showing the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output during the estimation target period.
  • the fluctuation distribution B of the power generation output is an estimated value of the distribution of the power generation output corresponding to each time in the estimation target period.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 specifies an estimated value of the amount of solar radiation corresponding to each estimated target time of the power generation output based on the upper graph in FIG. 4, and the power generation output corresponding to the estimated value of the specified amount of solar radiation.
  • the fluctuation distribution B of the power generation output in the estimation target period is calculated for each power generation facility 3.
  • the curve B1 is a curve corresponding to the curve A1 in the fluctuation distribution B.
  • the curve B1 is not the data used for the power control device 2 according to the first embodiment like the curve A1, but is shown for convenience of explanation.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 may estimate the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output based on the power generation output characteristics of the power generation facility 3 defined in advance. For example, the first distribution estimation unit 21 acquires the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount and the actual value of the past solar radiation amount corresponding to the upper figure in FIG. 4, and determines the solar radiation amount with respect to the predicted value of the solar radiation amount. Calculate the distribution of actual values.
  • a power generation output characteristic defined in advance for each power generation facility 3 is set in the first distribution estimation unit 21.
  • the power generation output characteristic of the power generation facility 3 is information indicating the relationship between the meteorological element and the power generation output, and is calculated by a physical model using, for example, the panel characteristic or installed capacity of the solar panel, the installation angle of the panel, and the like.
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21 may estimate the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output from the actual value of the power generation output. For example, the first distribution estimation unit 21 uses the actual value of the past power generation output corresponding to the upper diagram in FIG.
  • step ST2 When the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 is estimated in advance, the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 in step ST2 is estimated in advance. Is used. That is, when the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 is estimated in advance, the process of step ST2 is executed without executing the process of step ST1 in the series of processes of FIG.
  • the second distribution estimation unit 22 has the control value based on the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 estimated by the first distribution estimation unit 21 and the control value set by the control value calculation unit 25.
  • the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 when the power generation output is controlled in (step ST2) is estimated.
  • the control value calculation unit 25 extracts a target value of the total power generation output of the entire plurality of power generation facilities 3 from the first control information received by the communication unit 26, and the control value is based on the extracted target value. Calculate the initial value of.
  • control value calculation unit 25 multiplies the target value by the ratio of the rated output of each power generation facility 3 to the total rated output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3, thereby initializing the control value for each power generation facility 3. Calculate the value. Further, the control value calculation unit 25 multiplies the target value by the ratio of the current power generation output of each power generation facility 3 to the current total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 to obtain the individual power generation facilities 3. It is also possible to calculate the initial value of the control value. The initial value of the control value for each power generation facility 3 calculated by the control value calculation unit 25 is set in the second distribution estimation unit 22.
  • FIG. 5A is a diagram showing the relationship between the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output and the control value in each power generation facility 3.
  • the distribution B and the curve B1 are the same as in FIG.
  • FIG. 5B is a diagram showing the probability density distribution of the controlled power generation output in the individual power generation facilities 3 at the time X shown in FIG. 5A.
  • the control values in FIGS. 5A and 5B are control values for each power generation facility 3 calculated by the control value calculation unit 25.
  • the second distribution estimation unit 22 acquires the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output at each time in the fluctuation distribution B, for example, as a histogram.
  • the fluctuation distribution B includes a power generation output exceeding the control value
  • the second distribution estimation unit 22 is controlled so as to fall below the control value by suppressing the power generation output by the amount exceeding the control value.
  • a histogram showing the fluctuation distribution of the controlled power generation output is calculated and power generation is performed. Let it be the output probability density distribution.
  • the curve C shown in FIG. 5B shows the probability density distribution of the power generation output.
  • the second distribution estimation unit 22 may use a known distribution function instead of the histogram. Further, the probability density distribution calculated as a histogram may be subjected to processing such as approximation or smoothing by a known distribution function.
  • the third distribution estimation unit 23 determines the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 as a whole, based on the probability density distribution of the power generation output of each power generation facility 3 estimated by the second distribution estimation unit 22.
  • the probability density distribution is estimated (step ST3).
  • FIG. 5C is a diagram showing the probability density distribution of the total power generation output in the entire power generation equipment 3.
  • the third distribution estimation unit 23 calculates the sum of the probability density distributions of the power generation outputs estimated for each power generation facility 3. In the probability density distribution of the total power generation output in the entire plurality of power generation facilities 3, as shown by reference numeral D1 in FIG. 5C, there is a possibility that there is a probability of power generation output exceeding the target value.
  • the probability density distribution is calculated as the sum of the conditional probabilities, subject to the power generation outputs of the individual power generation facilities 3. Calculate the sum.
  • the probability density of the power generation output of each power generation facility 3 is corrected by weighting with a function representing the degree of correlation, and the sum of the probability density distributions is calculated. You may.
  • the determination unit 24 determines whether or not the total power generation output satisfies the target condition based on the probability density distribution of the total power generation output in the entire plurality of power generation facilities 3 (step ST4).
  • the determination unit 24 calculates an index necessary for determining the target condition based on the curve D, and determines whether or not the target condition is achieved.
  • the target condition satisfies, for example, in the probability density distribution shown in FIG. 5C, the first determination condition that the total power generation output exceeds the target value as an index and is equal to or less than the threshold value, and is shown in FIG. 5C.
  • weighting is performed according to the value of the power generation output, and the judgment is made based on the second determination condition of maximizing the power generation output using the expected value of the weighted power generation output as an index.
  • the first determination condition is weighted according to the value of the power generation output exceeding the target value in the probability density distribution shown in FIG. 5C, and the expected value of the power generation output exceeding the weighted target value is used as an index. As a result, it may be used as a determination condition as to whether or not this is equal to or less than the threshold value.
  • the target value of the entire equipment is given by, for example, the integrated value of 30-minute frames, so that it can be instantaneously performed.
  • the probability of power generation output exceeding the target value indicated by reference numeral D1 is positively allowed.
  • the determination unit 24 sets the control value used for estimating the probability density distribution in step ST2 to each power generation. It is determined as a control value used for controlling the power generation output in the equipment 3 (step ST5).
  • the determination unit 24 outputs the control value determined for each power generation facility 3 to the communication unit 26.
  • the communication unit 26 transmits the second control information including the control value to the individual power generation facilities 3 via the communication network 5. The power generation output in the power generation facility 3 is controlled based on the control value included in the second control information.
  • the communication unit 26 may transmit the control value to the control information generation device, and the control information generation device may generate the second control information and transmit it to the individual power generation equipment 3.
  • the control information generation device may be included in the power control device 2, or may be an external device provided separately from the power control device 2.
  • the determination unit 24 When it is determined that the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 as a whole does not satisfy the target condition (step ST4; NO), the determination unit 24 outputs the parameter used for changing the control value to the control value calculation unit 25.
  • the control value calculation unit 25 changes the control value for each power generation facility 3 based on the parameters input from the determination unit 24 (step ST6). A series of processes from step ST1 are executed using the changed control value. The change of the control value is repeated until the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 as a whole satisfies the target condition. Or, even if the target condition cannot be satisfied, the processing is stopped after repeating the specified number of times or after repeating until the specified time, and the most target condition among the control values up to that point in time. It may be considered that the one close to the target condition is satisfied. Also in this case, it is determined that the total power generation output of the plurality of power generation facilities 3 as a whole satisfies the target condition (step ST4; Y
  • the parameter used to change the control value is, for example, the difference between the probability that the total power generation output exceeds the target value and the threshold value of the corresponding judgment condition.
  • the control value calculation unit 25 exceeds the probability that the total power generation output exceeds the target value based on the difference between the probability that the total power generation output input from the determination unit 24 exceeds the target value and the threshold value of the judgment condition. In that case, the control value for each power generation facility 3 is changed in the direction in which more output is suppressed, and if the probability that the total power generation output exceeds the target value does not exceed, the individual power generation facility 3 The control value for is changed in the direction in which more suppression is released.
  • Changes in control values for each power generation facility 3 are distributed according to the rated capacity of each power generation facility 3.
  • the change of the control value for the individual power generation equipment 3 is distributed according to the amount of power generation at the current time in the individual power generation equipment 3, or the individual power generation equipment input from the first distribution estimation unit 21.
  • the power generation output may be distributed according to the excess amount of the power generation output with respect to the control value (control value before the change) in each power generation facility 3.
  • the expected value of the power generation output is maximized by equalizing the excess amount in each power generation facility 3.
  • the total power generation output of the entire power generation equipment (A) and power generation equipment (B) is suppressed by 20% from the rated output of 16 MW ( The case of controlling to the target value) will be described as an example. Further, it is assumed that the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output at this time follows the probability density distribution shown in FIG. 6 for both the power generation equipment (A) and the power generation equipment (B). In this case, the conventional power control device suppresses the maximum output (control value) of the power generation equipment (A) and the power generation equipment (B) to 8 MW, thereby suppressing the total power generation output as a whole to 16 MW or less.
  • the power generation output of the power generation equipment (A) is 9 MW, but the power generation output of the power generation equipment (B) is 7 MW.
  • a situation can occur.
  • the total power generation output as a whole becomes 16 MW, which satisfies the overall target value, but in the conventional power control device, the power generation output exceeding 8 MW in the power generation equipment (A) is suppressed. Therefore, the total power generation output of the power generation equipment (A) and the power generation equipment (B) as a whole is 15 MW, which is excessively suppressed with respect to the total target value of 16 MW.
  • the probability of such excessive suppression is calculated to be 14%.
  • the power control device 2 controls uncertain fluctuations in the power generation output in the power generation equipment by estimating the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the power generation equipment shown in FIG. 6 by the first distribution estimation unit 21. Reflect in determining the value. For example, under the condition of the probability density distribution shown in FIG. 6, when the maximum output (control value) of the power generation equipment (A) and the power generation equipment (B) is set to 8 MW, the probability of exceeding the overall target value is 0. %, And the expected value of the total power generation output as a whole is calculated to be 13.8 MW.
  • the maximum output (control value) of the power generation equipment (A) and the power generation equipment (B) is set to 9 MW
  • the probability of exceeding the overall target value is 5%
  • the total power generation output is expected as a whole.
  • the value is calculated to be 14.0 MW. Therefore, when the determination unit 24 allows an excess of 5% in the excess probability of the overall target value as a target condition, the maximum output (control value) of the power generation equipment (A) and the power generation equipment (B) is set to 9 MW. Is adopted, so an increase in power generation output of 0.2 MW is expected as compared with the control value by the conventional power control device.
  • the effect of reflecting uncertain fluctuations in the power generation output of the power generation equipment in the determination of the control value becomes more remarkable as the total number of power generation equipment increases, and if there are 10 power generation equipment under the same conditions as above, The probability of exceeding the overall target value is 0.1%, and it is possible to increase the expected value of power generation output by allowing a small risk.
  • FIG. 7A is a diagram showing an outline of control of power generation output in the power generation equipment (1) and the power generation equipment (2) based on the control value (1).
  • the graph shown on the upper left side of FIG. 7A is the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the power generation facility (1), and the graph shown on the lower left side of FIG. 7A is the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the power generation facility (2).
  • the graph shown on the right side of FIG. 7A is the fluctuation distribution of the total power generation output of the power generation equipment (1) and the power generation equipment (2) as a whole. Similar to the above, for the power generation equipment (1) and power generation equipment (2) whose rated outputs are both 10 MW, the total power generation output of the entire power generation equipment (1) and power generation equipment (2) is calculated from the rated output. The case of controlling to 16 MW (target value (A)) suppressed by 20% is shown.
  • the control value (1) is the maximum output (control value) (8 MW) set by the conventional power control device described above.
  • the power generation output of the power generation equipment (1) Due to the difference in weather conditions between the power generation equipment (1) and the power generation equipment (2), the power generation output of the power generation equipment (1) is 9 MW, but the power generation output of the power generation equipment (2) is 7 MW. Can occur. At this time, the total power generation output as a whole becomes 16 MW, which satisfies the overall target value (A), but in the conventional power control device, the power generation output exceeding 8 MW in the power generation equipment (1) is suppressed. Therefore, the total power generation output of the power generation equipment (1) and the power generation equipment (2) as a whole is 15 MW, which is excessively suppressed with respect to the total target value (A) 16 MW.
  • FIG. 7B is a diagram showing an outline of control of power generation output in the power generation equipment (1) and the power generation equipment (2) based on the control value (2).
  • the graph shown on the upper left side of FIG. 7B is the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the power generation facility (1), and the graph shown on the lower left side of FIG. 7B is the fluctuation distribution of the power generation output in the power generation facility (2).
  • the graph shown on the right side of FIG. 7B is the fluctuation distribution of the total power generation output of the power generation equipment (1) and the power generation equipment (2) as a whole.
  • the control value (2) is the power generation equipment (1) and the power generation equipment set by the power control device 2 when the determination unit 24 allows an excess of 5% in the excess probability of the overall target value as a target condition.
  • the hardware configuration that realizes the function of the power control device 2 according to the first embodiment is as follows.
  • Each function of the first distribution estimation unit 21, the second distribution estimation unit 22, the third distribution estimation unit 23, the determination unit 24, the control value calculation unit 25, and the communication unit 26 in the power control device 2 is performed by a processing circuit.
  • the power control device 2 includes a processing circuit for executing the processing from step ST1 to step ST6 shown in FIG.
  • the processing circuit may be dedicated hardware, or may be a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that executes a program stored in the memory.
  • CPU Central Processing Unit
  • FIG. 8A is a block diagram showing a hardware configuration that realizes the functions of the power control device 2.
  • FIG. 8B is a block diagram showing a hardware configuration for executing software that realizes the functions of the power control device 2.
  • the input interface 100 is an interface for relaying information input to the power control device 2.
  • the output interface 101 is an interface for relaying information output from the power control device 2.
  • the processing circuit 102 may be, for example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, or an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit). ), FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), or a combination of these.
  • the functions of the first distribution estimation unit 21, the second distribution estimation unit 22, the third distribution estimation unit 23, the determination unit 24, the control value calculation unit 25, and the communication unit 26 in the power control device 2 are processed separately. It may be realized by a circuit, or these functions may be collectively realized by one processing circuit.
  • the processing circuit is the processor 103 shown in FIG. 8B
  • the first distribution estimation unit 21, the second distribution estimation unit 22, the third distribution estimation unit 23, the determination unit 24, and the control value calculation unit in the power control device 2 The functions of the 25 and the communication unit 26 are realized by software, firmware, or a combination of software and firmware.
  • the software or firmware is described as a program and stored in the memory 104.
  • the processor 103 reads and executes the program stored in the memory 104, so that the first distribution estimation unit 21, the second distribution estimation unit 22, the third distribution estimation unit 23, and the determination unit in the power control device 2 are executed. 24, the functions of the control value calculation unit 25 and the communication unit 26 are realized.
  • the power control device 2 includes a memory 104 that stores a program in which the processes from steps ST1 to ST6 in the flowchart shown in FIG. 3 are executed as a result when executed by the processor 103. These programs execute the procedure or method of the first distribution estimation unit 21, the second distribution estimation unit 22, the third distribution estimation unit 23, the determination unit 24, the control value calculation unit 25, and the communication unit 26 on the computer. Let me.
  • the memory 104 is a program for causing the computer to function as a first distribution estimation unit 21, a second distribution estimation unit 22, a third distribution estimation unit 23, a determination unit 24, a control value calculation unit 25, and a communication unit 26. May be a computer-readable storage medium in which is stored.
  • the memory 104 is, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), a flash memory, an EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory), an EEPROM (Electrically-volatile) semiconductor, an EPROM (Electrically-volatile), or the like.
  • the functions of the first distribution estimation unit 21, the second distribution estimation unit 22, the third distribution estimation unit 23, the determination unit 24, the control value calculation unit 25, and the communication unit 26 in the power control device 2 are dedicated. It is implemented by hardware and may be implemented in part by software or firmware.
  • the communication unit 26 has a function realized by a processing circuit 102 which is dedicated hardware, and the first distribution estimation unit 21, the second distribution estimation unit 22, the third distribution estimation unit 23, the determination unit 24, and the communication unit 26
  • the function of the control value calculation unit 25 is realized by the processor 103 reading and executing the program stored in the memory 104. In this way, the processing circuit can realize the above functions by hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof.
  • the power control device 2 it is set for each power generation facility 3 by using the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3 before controlling the power generation output.
  • the probability density distribution of the power generation output when controlled based on the control value is estimated, and the probability density distribution of the total power generation output in the entire plurality of power generation facilities 3 is based on the probability density distribution of the power generation output in each power generation facility 3. Is estimated.
  • the power control device 2 is not limited to the real-time control of the power in each power generation facility 3, and can reduce the loss of power generation opportunities due to the suppression of the power generation output.
  • the power control method according to the first embodiment can also be applied to the control for increasing the power generation output in the power generation facility 3. In this case, if the power generation equipment 3 is below the control value, the power generation equipment 3 is increased and controlled so as to have the power generation output of the control value.
  • the power equipment is the power generation equipment 3
  • the power load in each power facility is controlled so that the total power load in the entire plurality of power facilities satisfies the target value.
  • the control value may be suppressed or increased.
  • the electric power control device can be used, for example, for electric power control of a plurality of electric power facilities using renewable energy.

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Abstract

L'invention concerne un dispositif de commande de puissance électrique (2), lequel comprend une première unité d'estimation de distribution (22) qui estime une distribution de densité de probabilité d'une sortie de génération de puissance électrique dans chacune d'une pluralité d'installations de génération de puissance électrique (3), une deuxième unité d'estimation de distribution (23) qui estime une distribution de densité de probabilité de la sortie de génération de puissance électrique totale dans l'entièreté des installations de génération de puissance électrique (3), une unité de détermination (24) qui détermine si la sortie de génération de puissance électrique totale dans l'entièreté des installations de génération de puissance électrique (3) satisfait une valeur cible ou non, et une unité de calcul de valeur de commande (25) qui, lorsqu'il est déterminé que la sortie de génération de puissance électrique totale dans l'entièreté des installations de génération de puissance électrique (3) ne satisfait pas la valeur cible, calcule une valeur de commande pour chaque installation de génération de puissance électrique (3) de manière à augmenter la probabilité selon laquelle la sortie de génération de puissance électrique totale dans l'entièreté des installations de génération de puissance électrique (3) satisfait la valeur cible.
PCT/JP2020/001642 2020-01-20 2020-01-20 Dispositif de commande de puissance électrique, procédé de commande de puissance électrique, et programme WO2021149096A1 (fr)

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JP2021559581A JP6987331B1 (ja) 2020-01-20 2020-01-20 電力制御装置、電力制御方法およびプログラム

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Cited By (1)

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WO2023062953A1 (fr) * 2021-10-14 2023-04-20 株式会社日立製作所 Système de gestion de coopération et procédé de gestion de coopération

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JP2008043191A (ja) * 2006-08-04 2008-02-21 General Electric Co <Ge> 発電混合予測モデル化方法
JP2012034444A (ja) * 2010-07-28 2012-02-16 Toshiba Corp 電力需給計画装置及びその方法
JP2016073156A (ja) * 2014-10-01 2016-05-09 中国電力株式会社 発電量予測装置、発電量予測方法、及びプログラム
JP2016158347A (ja) * 2015-02-24 2016-09-01 株式会社日立製作所 送電設備計画支援システム及び方法
JP2017175908A (ja) * 2015-05-27 2017-09-28 日本電気株式会社 発電制御装置および制御方法

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
JP2008043191A (ja) * 2006-08-04 2008-02-21 General Electric Co <Ge> 発電混合予測モデル化方法
JP2012034444A (ja) * 2010-07-28 2012-02-16 Toshiba Corp 電力需給計画装置及びその方法
JP2016073156A (ja) * 2014-10-01 2016-05-09 中国電力株式会社 発電量予測装置、発電量予測方法、及びプログラム
JP2016158347A (ja) * 2015-02-24 2016-09-01 株式会社日立製作所 送電設備計画支援システム及び方法
JP2017175908A (ja) * 2015-05-27 2017-09-28 日本電気株式会社 発電制御装置および制御方法

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
WO2023062953A1 (fr) * 2021-10-14 2023-04-20 株式会社日立製作所 Système de gestion de coopération et procédé de gestion de coopération

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