WO2021048956A1 - Plant maintenance management method and maintenance management system - Google Patents
Plant maintenance management method and maintenance management system Download PDFInfo
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- WO2021048956A1 WO2021048956A1 PCT/JP2019/035747 JP2019035747W WO2021048956A1 WO 2021048956 A1 WO2021048956 A1 WO 2021048956A1 JP 2019035747 W JP2019035747 W JP 2019035747W WO 2021048956 A1 WO2021048956 A1 WO 2021048956A1
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/20—Administration of product repair or maintenance
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
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- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
Definitions
- the present invention relates to a technique for performing maintenance management of equipment constituting a plant.
- the plant that processes fluids is equipped with a large number of equipment. Failure of these devices can not only prevent normal processing, but can also cause greater disasters such as fires and environmental pollution. Therefore, maintenance work is carried out to inspect and repair each equipment installed in the plant.
- the plant may be equipped with an extremely large number of equipment, but it is efficient to inspect and repair all the equipment at the same frequency because the amount of work may become enormous. Not. Therefore, in the past, from the viewpoint of improving availability (continuation of plant operation), equipment with a large impact on plant operation has a shorter maintenance work interval, and equipment with a small impact has a longer maintenance interval. It was common to make a plan.
- Patent Document 1 the process data and trend data of the plant are used as the plant signal for monitoring the plant equipment, and the plant equipment is inspected based on the result of determining the abnormality of the measured value of the plant signal.
- a maintenance inspection system that identifies the item is described.
- Patent Document 1 does not contain a description of a technique for making a maintenance plan from the viewpoint of improving plant safety.
- the present invention has been made against such a background, and provides a technique for formulating a maintenance plan for equipment from the viewpoint of improving plant safety.
- the plant maintenance management method of the present invention includes a step of extracting a plurality of accidents that are expected to occur in the equipment constituting the plant, and a step of extracting a plurality of accidents.
- a process of acquiring the frequency of accident-caused events that can cause each accident and the failure probability of normal operation of the safety device for preventing the occurrence of the accident and A process of calculating a risk, which is a product of the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event related to each accident and the failure probability of the safety device related to the accident, and comparing it with a preset threshold value.
- It is characterized by including a step of listing the equipment and the safety device related to the risk as maintenance work target candidates when the calculated risk is larger than the threshold value for the plurality of accidents.
- the maintenance management method of the plant may have the following features.
- A When a plurality of the safety devices are provided in a plurality in order to prevent the occurrence of the accident, the risk is the probability of failure of these safety devices with respect to the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event. To be calculated by overlapping and multiplying.
- B The frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event acquired in the acquisition process is obtained by reflecting the occurrence record of the accident-induced event in the plant, and the acquired safety device. The failure probability of is calculated by reflecting the occurrence record of failure of normal operation of the safety device in the plant. At this time, the occurrence frequency of the accident-caused event or the failure probability of the safety device is reflected in the occurrence record based on Bayesian estimation.
- the risk which is a product of the frequency of accident-caused events assumed in a plant and the failure probability of a safety device for preventing the occurrence of the accident, is a preset threshold value.
- the equipment and the safety device are listed as candidates for maintenance work. As a result, it is possible to suppress an increase in the risk of an assumed accident and formulate a maintenance plan that can maintain a state in which the plant can operate safely.
- FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an outline of the maintenance management system 2 of this example and the plant 1 in which maintenance management is performed using the maintenance management system 2.
- Plant 1 is not particularly limited as long as it has a function to process fluid, such as a natural gas plant that liquefies natural gas, separates and recovers natural gas liquid, and distills and desulfurizes crude oil and various intermediate products.
- fluid such as a natural gas plant that liquefies natural gas, separates and recovers natural gas liquid, and distills and desulfurizes crude oil and various intermediate products.
- Examples include petroleum refining plants that produce petroleum chemical products, intermediate chemicals, polymers, pharmaceutical plants that produce chemicals and their intermediate products, and waste treatment plants for low-level radioactive waste. Can be done.
- the "fluid” includes not only gas and liquid but also fluid powders and granules (powder, granules, pellets, etc.).
- Plant 1 has a large number of static equipment such as tower tanks and heat exchangers, dynamic equipment such as pumps, piping provided between these static equipment and dynamic equipment, as well as various control (instrumentation) equipment and electrical equipment. Equipment is provided. These devices include those whose maintenance work is carried out based on the maintenance plan formulated by using the maintenance management system 2 of this example.
- the maintenance management system 2 of this example can list the devices that are candidates for maintenance work from the viewpoint of suppressing an increase in the risk of accidents that may occur in each device provided in the plant 1.
- the maintenance management system 2 is composed of, for example, a computer.
- the computer constituting the maintenance management system 2 may be installed in the central control room in the premises of the plant 1 provided for the integrated control of the plant 1, or is located in a remote place from the premises of the plant 1. It may be installed in the office.
- the maintenance management system 2 has an information acquisition unit 21 that acquires information related to the equipment of the plant 1, a storage unit 22 that stores various information necessary for carrying out maintenance management, and equipment based on such information. It is provided with a risk evaluation unit 23 for performing risk evaluation and a notification unit 24 for notifying the user of the result of the risk evaluation.
- the information acquisition unit 21 includes "frequency of accident-induced events” and “failure of normal operation of the safety device", which will be described later, as information necessary for carrying out maintenance management of the equipment. "Probability" and get. This information may be entered individually by the user or may be obtained from a separately prepared database.
- the information acquisition unit 21 is configured as a computer input terminal, etc., and when acquiring data from a database, the information acquisition unit 21 is a recording medium reading terminal or data communication with the outside. It is configured as a communication unit that performs the above.
- the maintenance management system 2 causes these events to occur in response to "frequency of accident-induced events” and “failure of normal operation of the safety device (hereinafter, also simply referred to as” failure of the safety device ”)". It may have a function that reflects achievements. From this point of view, the information acquisition unit 21 may acquire information regarding the occurrence record of these events. Further, the information acquisition unit 21 may include a calculation unit including a computer that executes a calculation for reflecting the occurrence record.
- the storage unit 22 prevents accidents (assumed accidents) that are expected to occur in each device constituting the plant 1, accident-caused events that can cause each assumed accident, their frequency of occurrence, and the occurrence of the assumed accidents.
- a database is stored in which the safety device for performing the operation and the failure probability of its normal operation are associated with the threshold value for evaluating the risk calculated from this information.
- Accident-caused events are events that can cause each of the extracted accidents. For example, in a tank for storing a fluid, it is assumed that the liquid is received and discharged while controlling the liquid level. At this time, if a failure occurs in the control system for controlling the liquid level, a liquid overflow may occur. In this example, “liquid overflow” is an assumed accident and "control system failure” is an accident-caused event.
- the safety device is a kind of equipment installed in the plant 1 to prevent the occurrence of an accident even when an accident-caused event occurs.
- an interlock liquid level meter for stopping the acceptance of the liquid is provided in addition to the liquid level meter provided in the control system for controlling the liquid level.
- the "liquid level meter for interlock" is a safety device.
- the number of times a predetermined accident-induced event can occur during a preset period (one year in this example) for a certain device is the "occurrence frequency”. Further, the number of times that the safety device may not operate normally during a preset period (one year in this example) for a certain safety device is the "failure probability”.
- the "frequency of accident-induced events” and “safety” reflect the actual occurrence of these events.
- the failure probability of the device may be obtained. For example, by using Bayesian inference, it is possible to reflect the actual occurrence.
- the frequency of failure of a certain device including the case of a safety device
- the average value of the failure time based on the lognormal uncertainty distribution is Xmean and the variance is Var.
- the time until a failure occurs in the device can be expressed by using an appropriate probability distribution.
- the probability density of the gamma distribution can be expressed by the following equation (1).
- ⁇ is a ⁇ function.
- FIG. 3 shows changes over time in the frequency of failure occurrence, reflecting the actual occurrence of equipment failures.
- the information acquisition unit 21 acquires the accident-caused events related to each device installed in the plant 1 and the occurrence record (number of occurrences and time until occurrence) of the failure of the safety device. .. Further, the information acquisition unit 21 may perform the above-mentioned calculation based on the information, and store in the storage unit 22 the “frequency of occurrence of accident-caused events and the failure probability of the safety device” reflecting the above-mentioned occurrence record. Further, the storage unit 22 stores a threshold value which is an upper limit value of the permissible value range of the risk calculated by the risk evaluation unit 23 in association with each assumed accident.
- the safety device subject to this maintenance management system 2 is not limited to the safety instrumentation device (SIS: Safety Instrument System) such as the above-mentioned "liquid level meter for interlock".
- SIS Safety Instrument System
- the data of the occurrence record of "safety device failure” is reflected and updated and used for maintenance management.
- "devices that can generate accident-caused events for example, the" control valve "for liquid level control described above) are similarly reflected and updated with data on actual occurrences.
- One of the features of this maintenance management system 2 is that the data of the occurrence results related to both the failure of these safety devices and the occurrence of accident-related events are reflected / updated and reflected in the maintenance management.
- the function of the risk evaluation unit 23 will be described. For example, when a certain device is provided with a safety device for preventing the occurrence of an assumed accident, even if an accident-caused event occurs, if the safety device operates normally, the assumed accident does not occur. Further, even if the safety device does not operate normally, an assumed accident does not occur unless an accident-caused event occurs. That is, an assumed accident occurs when "an accident-caused event occurs" and "the safety device does not operate normally".
- the risk evaluation unit 23 calculates the risk of an assumed accident using the following equation (4).
- Risk (Frequency of accident-related events) x (Probability of failure of safety device) ... (4)
- some devices may be provided with a plurality of safety devices.
- the risk evaluation unit 23 calculates the risk based on the following equation (4)', which is obtained by multiplying and multiplying the failure probabilities of each safety device.
- the equation (4)' shows an example in which two safety devices (primary safety device and secondary safety device) are provided.
- Risk (Frequency of accident-related events) x (Probability of failure of primary safety device) ⁇ (Probability of failure of secondary safety device) ... (4)'
- the risk evaluation unit 23 compares the calculated risk with the threshold value stored in the storage unit 22. If the calculated risk for a certain assumed accident is larger than the threshold value, it is evaluated that the risk of occurrence of the assumed accident exceeds the permissible range. In this case, the comparison result is output to the notification unit 24.
- the notification unit 24 acquires information from the risk evaluation unit 23 that the calculated risk is larger than the threshold value, the notification unit 24 identifies the device and the safety device related to the risk of the assumed accident, for example, via the monitor 241. Output the information to be done.
- a maintenance plan for the plant 1 is formulated, and the processing to be carried out will be described with reference to FIG.
- an accident that is expected to occur in the equipment constituting the plant 1 is extracted (process P1).
- the extraction of assumed accidents related to the equipment subject to maintenance management by this method is comprehensive.
- the extracted assumed accident is stored in the storage unit 22.
- the accident-caused events that can cause the accident and the safety device for preventing the occurrence of the accident are specified.
- the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event and the failure probability of the normal operation of the safety device are acquired via the information acquisition unit 21 (process P2).
- the failure probability of each safety device is acquired.
- the acquired frequency of occurrence and probability of failure are stored in the storage unit 22 in association with the assumed accident.
- the risk evaluation unit 23 selects an assumed accident, calculates the risk for the assumed accident, and then compares it with the threshold value (process P3).
- the equipment and safety device related to the risk are listed as maintenance target candidates and notified via the monitor 241.
- the user who receives the notification creates a specific maintenance schedule for these devices and safety devices, and sequentially carries out inspections and repairs (process P5).
- the elapsed time of the probability distribution shown in FIGS. 2 and 3 starts from the state where the elapsed time returns to the zero point.
- the occurrence record is reflected by the method described above.
- the horizontal axis of FIG. 5 is the elapsed time, and the vertical axis is the risk calculated for a certain assumed accident.
- the white circles shown in FIG. 5 indicate the changes in the risk when the maintenance management of the equipment / safety device is performed using the maintenance management system 2, and the black circles indicate the risks when the maintenance management is not performed. Shows a change in.
- the risk becomes larger than the threshold value as shown by the black circle. Therefore, for example, the primary safety device is inspected and repaired to keep the risk below the threshold value. Then, the same risk evaluation is performed at the time points (2) and (3), for example, the equipment is inspected / repaired at the time point (2), and the secondary safety device is inspected / repaired at the time point (3). Carry out maintenance work so that the risk is maintained below the threshold.
- the notification unit 24 lists a plurality of target candidates for maintenance work (equipment, primary safety device, secondary safety device) in association with a predetermined assumed event. In this case, it is necessary to determine which device / safety device should be maintained. Therefore, for example, the content of the formula (4)'may be confirmed, and among the occurrence frequencies and failure probabilities of individual devices and safety devices, those having a large risk reduction effect may be selected as the target of maintenance work.
- maintenance work may be performed on items that have not been inspected or repaired recently.
- prioritize safety devices and equipment from the viewpoint of importance such as formulating priority management items that are important for safety, create a maintenance plan that incorporates the priority management items, and carry out maintenance work. You may.
- FIG. 6 is a part of the processing plant, which receives a solid-liquid mixed fluid containing a radioactive substance and performs processing.
- the powder resin storage tank 31 receives the powder resin-containing waste liquid 311. After standing, the solid-liquid separated supernatant is discharged as a decant liquid 313 by the decant pump 312.
- the bead resin storage tank 32 receives the bead resin-containing waste liquid 321. After standing, the solid-liquid separated supernatant is discharged as a decant liquid 323 by the decant pump 322, or sent to the bead resin separation liquid tank 34.
- the filter clad storage tank 33 receives the filter clad-containing waste liquid 331.
- the solid-liquid separated supernatant is discharged as a decant liquid 333 by the decant pump 332.
- the bead resin separation liquid tank 34 receives the supernatant liquid from the bead resin storage tank 32.
- the solid-liquid separated supernatant can be obtained from any of the powder resin storage tank 31, the bead resin storage tank 32, and the filter clad storage tank 33 by combining the separation liquid pump 341 and the opening / closing operation of the opening / closing valves V1 to V3. The liquid is sent to the pump.
- Fig. 7 shows an example of a calculation table that enumerates accident-caused events and their frequency of occurrence, safety devices and their failure probabilities for some of the assumed accidents related to the processing plant, and calculates the risk of occurrence of the assumed accidents.
- the safety device is multiplexed and includes a restart operation of the air purge system which is the primary safety device and the tank vent processing system which is the secondary safety device.
- the risk of an assumed accident in this case is calculated by multiplying the total value of the frequency of occurrence of accident-related events by the failure probability of the primary and secondary safety devices based on the equation (4)'.
- the maintenance management system 2 executes the calculation of the risk corresponding to each assumed accident shown in FIG. 7.
- the maintenance management system 2 it is a product of the frequency of accident-caused events assumed in plant 1 and the failure probability of the safety device for preventing the occurrence of the accident.
- a risk is greater than a preset threshold, equipment and safety devices are listed as potential targets for maintenance work.
- a maintenance plan capable of maintaining a state in which the plant 1 can operate safely.
- the conventional availability-based maintenance management may be used in a complementary manner to the maintenance management using the maintenance management system 2.
- a case where the conventional availability-based maintenance management is performed can be exemplified.
- the maintenance management system 2 and the conventional availability-based maintenance management are operated independently for one plant 1, and the results of maintenance work based on the maintenance method on one side are reflected in the maintenance method on the other side. You may.
- the processes P1 to P4 shown in FIG. 4 are not essential requirements to be carried out by using the maintenance management system 2. If at least the risk of the process P3 is calculated using a computer and compared with the threshold value, it is not denied that the other processes P1, P2, and P4 are manually performed using a form or the like.
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Abstract
Description
そこで従来は、アベイラビリティ向上(プラントの稼働継続)の観点から、プラントの稼働に対する影響度が大きな機器は、保全作業の実施間隔を短くし、影響度の小さな機器は、その実施間隔を長くする保全計画を立てることが一般的であった。 For this maintenance work, the plant may be equipped with an extremely large number of equipment, but it is efficient to inspect and repair all the equipment at the same frequency because the amount of work may become enormous. Not.
Therefore, in the past, from the viewpoint of improving availability (continuation of plant operation), equipment with a large impact on plant operation has a shorter maintenance work interval, and equipment with a small impact has a longer maintenance interval. It was common to make a plan.
前記抽出した複数の事故について、各事故の起因となり得る事故起因事象の発生頻度と、当該事故の発生を防止するための安全装置の正常動作の失敗確率とを取得する工程と、
コンピュータにより、前記各事故に係る前記事故起因事象の発生頻度と、当該事故に係る前記安全装置についての失敗確率との乗算値であるリスクを算出し、予め設定したしきい値と比較する工程と、
前記複数の事故につき、算出した前記リスクが前記しきい値より大きい場合に、当該リスクに係る前記機器及び前記安全装置を保全作業対象候補としてリストアップする工程と、を含むことを特徴とする。 The plant maintenance management method of the present invention includes a step of extracting a plurality of accidents that are expected to occur in the equipment constituting the plant, and a step of extracting a plurality of accidents.
For the above-extracted plurality of accidents, a process of acquiring the frequency of accident-caused events that can cause each accident and the failure probability of normal operation of the safety device for preventing the occurrence of the accident, and
A process of calculating a risk, which is a product of the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event related to each accident and the failure probability of the safety device related to the accident, and comparing it with a preset threshold value. ,
It is characterized by including a step of listing the equipment and the safety device related to the risk as maintenance work target candidates when the calculated risk is larger than the threshold value for the plurality of accidents.
(a)前記事故の発生を防止するために、複数の前記安全装置が多重に設けられている場合に、前記リスクは、前記事故起因事象の発生頻度に対し、これらの安全装置についての失敗確率を重ねて乗算して算出されること。
(b)前記取得する工程にて取得される前記事故起因事象の発生頻度は、前記プラントにおける当該事故起因事象の発生実績を反映して求めたものであり、また、前記取得される前記安全装置の失敗確率は、当該プラントにおける当該安全装置の正常動作の失敗の発生実績を反映して求めたものであること。このとき、前記事故起因事象の発生頻度または前記安全装置の失敗確率への前記発生実績の反映は、ベイズ推定に基づいて行われること。 The maintenance management method of the plant may have the following features.
(A) When a plurality of the safety devices are provided in a plurality in order to prevent the occurrence of the accident, the risk is the probability of failure of these safety devices with respect to the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event. To be calculated by overlapping and multiplying.
(B) The frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event acquired in the acquisition process is obtained by reflecting the occurrence record of the accident-induced event in the plant, and the acquired safety device. The failure probability of is calculated by reflecting the occurrence record of failure of normal operation of the safety device in the plant. At this time, the occurrence frequency of the accident-caused event or the failure probability of the safety device is reflected in the occurrence record based on Bayesian estimation.
図1は、本例の保全管理システム2及びこれを用いた保全管理が行われるプラント1の概要を示すブロック図である。 First, the outline of the plant
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an outline of the
なお、本願において「流体」には、気体、液体に加え、流動性を有する粉粒体(粉体、粒体やペレットなど)も含んでいる。
In the present application, the "fluid" includes not only gas and liquid but also fluid powders and granules (powder, granules, pellets, etc.).
保全管理システム2は、例えばコンピュータにより構成される。保全管理システム2を構成するコンピュータは、当該プラント1の統括制御を行うために設けられる、プラント1の敷地内の中央制御室に設けてもよいし、プラント1の敷地からは遠隔の地にあるオフィスに設けてもよい。 The
The
データの個別入力が行われる場合は、情報取得部21はコンピュータの入力端末などとして構成され、データベースからの取得を行う場合は、情報取得部21は記録媒体の読取端末や、外部とのデータ通信を行う通信部として構成される。 Among the information related to the equipment of the
When individual data is input, the
また、ユーザーが同種の他のプラントを所有している場合などにおいては、他のプラントにおける「事故起因事象の発生頻度」や「安全装置の失敗確率」を用いてもよい。 These "accident-induced events" and "safety device failures" are continuously aggregated in the plant industry as a whole, and the "accident-induced events occurrence frequency for each device" calculated based on these occurrence records and "Failure probability for each safety device" is sold as a database. At the start of operation of the
Further, when the user owns another plant of the same type, the “frequency of accident-induced events” or the “probability of failure of the safety device” in the other plant may be used.
ここで、α(=(Xmean)2/Var)、β(=Xmean/Var)であり、ΓはΓ関数である。 Regarding the frequency of failure of a certain device (including the case of a safety device), it is assumed that the average value of the failure time based on the lognormal uncertainty distribution is Xmean and the variance is Var. At this time, the time until a failure occurs in the device can be expressed by using an appropriate probability distribution. For example, the probability density of the gamma distribution can be expressed by the following equation (1).
Here, α (= (Xmean) 2 / Var) and β (= Xmean / Var), and Γ is a Γ function.
図2は、Xmean=1.08×10-3、Var=2.3×10-6の場合の故障の発生頻度の経時変化である(α0=5.07×10-1、β0=4.7×102)。 At this time, for example, assuming that the failure time described in a commercially available database is Xmean and the variance of the original data for obtaining the failure time is Var, the above equation (1) is understood to be a change over time in the frequency of failure occurrence from the initial state. be able to.
FIG. 2 shows the time course of the failure frequency when Xmean = 1.08 × 10 -3 and Var = 2.3 × 10-6 (α0 = 5.07 × 10 -1 , β0 = 4. 7 × 10 2 ).
Xmean’=(α0+故障発生回数)/(β0+延べ稼働時間) …(2)
Var’=(α0+故障発生回数)/(β0+延べ稼働時間)2 …(3)
図3は、機器の故障の発生実績を反映した、故障の発生頻度の経時変化である。各パラメータは、Xmean’=2.65×10-3、Var=4.65×10-6、α0’=1.51、β0’=5.7×102であった。 At this time, it is assumed that the
Xmean'= (α0 + number of failures) / (β0 + total operating time)… (2)
Var'= (α0 + number of failures) / (β0 + total operating time) 2 ... (3)
FIG. 3 shows changes over time in the frequency of failure occurrence, reflecting the actual occurrence of equipment failures. Each parameter, Xmean '= 2.65 × 10 -3 , Var = 4.65 × 10 -6, α0' = 1.51, was β0 '= 5.7 × 10 2.
さらに記憶部22には、各想定事故と対応付けて、リスク評価部23にて算出されるリスクの許容値範囲の上限値であるしきい値が記憶されている。 When implementing the above method, the
Further, the
即ち、「事故起因事象が発生し」且つ「安全装置が正常に動作しない」場合に想定事故が発生することになる。 Next, the function of the
That is, an assumed accident occurs when "an accident-caused event occurs" and "the safety device does not operate normally".
リスク=(事故起因事象の発生頻度)×(安全装置の失敗確率)…(4)
また、機器の中には、安全装置が多重に設けられている場合がある。この場合には、リスク評価部23は各安全装置の失敗確率を重ねて乗算した下記(4)’式に基づいて前記リスクを算出する。なお(4)’式には、2つの安全装置(1次安全装置、2次安全装置)を備える場合の例を示してある。
リスク=(事故起因事象の発生頻度)×(1次安全装置の失敗確率)
×(2次安全装置の失敗確率)…(4)’ Based on the above concept, the
Risk = (Frequency of accident-related events) x (Probability of failure of safety device) ... (4)
In addition, some devices may be provided with a plurality of safety devices. In this case, the
Risk = (Frequency of accident-related events) x (Probability of failure of primary safety device)
× (Probability of failure of secondary safety device) ... (4)'
はじめに、プラント1を構成する機器にて発生すると想定される事故の抽出を行う(処理P1)。既述のように、本手法による保全管理の対象となる機器に関する想定事故の抽出は、網羅的行われることが好ましい。抽出された想定事故は、記憶部22に記憶される。 Using the
First, an accident that is expected to occur in the equipment constituting the
前記通知を受けたユーザーは、これらの機器及び安全装置についての具体的な保全スケジュールを作成し、順次、点検・補修を実施する(処理P5)。 After that, the
The user who receives the notification creates a specific maintenance schedule for these devices and safety devices, and sequentially carries out inspections and repairs (process P5).
または、保安上重要となる重点管理項目を策定するなど、重要度の観点から安全装置や機器についての優先順位づけを行い、当該重点管理項目を組み込んだ保全計画を作成して保全作業を実施してもよい。 In the above example, the
Alternatively, prioritize safety devices and equipment from the viewpoint of importance, such as formulating priority management items that are important for safety, create a maintenance plan that incorporates the priority management items, and carry out maintenance work. You may.
図7に示す各想定事故に対応したリスクの算出が、保全管理システム2によって実行される。 On the other hand, the safety device is multiplexed and includes a restart operation of the air purge system which is the primary safety device and the tank vent processing system which is the secondary safety device. The risk of an assumed accident in this case is calculated by multiplying the total value of the frequency of occurrence of accident-related events by the failure probability of the primary and secondary safety devices based on the equation (4)'.
The
また、1つのプラント1に対し、本保全管理システム2と従来のアベイラビリティベースの保全管理とを独立して運用し、一方側の保全手法に基づく保全業務の結果を他方側の保全手法に反映してもよい。 Here, the conventional availability-based maintenance management may be used in a complementary manner to the maintenance management using the
In addition, the
2 保全管理システム
21 情報取得部
22 記憶部
23 リスク評価部
24 通知部
1
Claims (8)
- 流体の処理を行うプラントの保全管理方法であって、
前記プラントを構成する機器にて発生すると想定される事故を複数抽出する工程と、
前記抽出した複数の事故について、各事故の起因となり得る事故起因事象の発生頻度と、当該事故の発生を防止するための安全装置の正常動作の失敗確率とを取得する工程と、
コンピュータにより、前記各事故に係る前記事故起因事象の発生頻度と、当該事故に係る前記安全装置についての失敗確率との乗算値であるリスクを算出し、予め設定したしきい値と比較する工程と、
前記複数の事故につき、算出した前記リスクが前記しきい値より大きい場合に、当該リスクに係る前記機器及び前記安全装置を保全作業対象候補としてリストアップする工程と、を含むことを特徴とするプラントの保全管理方法。 It is a maintenance management method for plants that process fluids.
The process of extracting multiple accidents that are expected to occur in the equipment that makes up the plant, and
For the above-extracted plurality of accidents, a process of acquiring the frequency of accident-caused events that can cause each accident and the failure probability of normal operation of the safety device for preventing the occurrence of the accident, and
A process of calculating a risk, which is a product of the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event related to each accident and the failure probability of the safety device related to the accident, and comparing it with a preset threshold value. ,
A plant characterized by including a step of listing the equipment and the safety device related to the risk as maintenance work target candidates when the calculated risk is larger than the threshold value for the plurality of accidents. Maintenance management method. - 前記事故の発生を防止するために、複数の前記安全装置が多重に設けられている場合に、前記リスクは、前記事故起因事象の発生頻度に対し、これらの安全装置についての失敗確率を重ねて乗算して算出されることを特徴とする請求項1に記載のプラントの保全管理方法。 When a plurality of the safety devices are provided in a plurality in order to prevent the occurrence of the accident, the risk is that the failure probability of these safety devices is superimposed on the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event. The plant maintenance management method according to claim 1, wherein the plant is calculated by multiplication.
- 前記取得する工程にて取得される前記事故起因事象の発生頻度は、前記プラントにおける当該事故起因事象の発生実績を反映して求めたものであり、また、前記取得される前記安全装置の失敗確率は、当該プラントにおける当該安全装置の正常動作の失敗の発生実績を反映して求めたものであることを特徴とする請求項1に記載のプラントの保全管理方法。 The frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event acquired in the acquisition process is obtained by reflecting the occurrence record of the accident-induced event in the plant, and the failure probability of the acquired safety device. Is the plant maintenance management method according to claim 1, wherein is obtained by reflecting the occurrence record of failure of the normal operation of the safety device in the plant.
- 前記事故起因事象の発生頻度または前記安全装置の失敗確率への前記発生実績の反映は、ベイズ推定に基づいて行われることを特徴とする請求項3に記載のプラントの保全管理方法。 The plant maintenance management method according to claim 3, wherein the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event or the reflection of the occurrence record in the failure probability of the safety device is performed based on Bayesian estimation.
- 流体の処理を行うプラントの保全管理システムであって、
前記プラントを構成する機器にて発生すると想定される複数の事故について、各事故の起因となり得る事故起因事象の発生頻度と、当該事故の発生を防止するための安全装置の正常動作の失敗確率とを含むリスク算出情報を取得する情報取得部と、
前記情報取得部にて取得した前記リスク算出情報に基づき、前記各事故に係る前記事故起因事象の発生頻度と、当該事故に係る前記安全装置についての失敗確率との乗算値であるリスクを算出し、予め設定したしきい値と比較するリスク評価部と、
前記複数の事故につき、算出した前記リスクが前記しきい値より大きい場合に、当該リスクに係る前記機器及び前記安全装置を保全作業対象候補としてリストアップして通知する通知部と、を備えることを特徴とするプラントの保全管理システム。 A maintenance management system for plants that process fluids.
For multiple accidents that are expected to occur in the equipment that makes up the plant, the frequency of accident-related events that can cause each accident, and the failure probability of normal operation of the safety device to prevent the occurrence of the accident. Information acquisition department that acquires risk calculation information including
Based on the risk calculation information acquired by the information acquisition unit, a risk that is a product of the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event related to each accident and the failure probability of the safety device related to the accident is calculated. , Risk assessment department to compare with preset thresholds,
For the plurality of accidents, when the calculated risk is larger than the threshold value, the device and the safety device related to the risk are listed as maintenance work target candidates and notified by the notification unit. A characteristic plant maintenance management system. - 前記事故の発生を防止するために、複数の前記安全装置が多重に設けられている場合に、前記リスク評価部は、前記事故起因事象の発生頻度に対し、これらの安全装置についての失敗確率を重ねて乗算して前記リスクを算出することを特徴とする請求項5に記載のプラントの保全管理システム。 When a plurality of the safety devices are provided in a plurality of manners in order to prevent the occurrence of the accident, the risk evaluation unit determines the failure probability of these safety devices with respect to the occurrence frequency of the accident-caused events. The plant maintenance management system according to claim 5, wherein the risk is calculated by overlapping and multiplying.
- 前記情報取得部は、前記プラントにおける前記事故起因事象の発生実績を反映して当該事故起因事象の発生頻度求め、また、当該プラントにおける前記安全装置の正常動作の失敗の発生実績を反映して当該安全装置の失敗確率を求める機能を備えることを特徴とする請求項5に記載のプラントの保全管理システム。 The information acquisition unit obtains the frequency of occurrence of the accident-caused event by reflecting the occurrence record of the accident-induced event in the plant, and reflects the occurrence record of the failure of the normal operation of the safety device in the plant. The plant maintenance management system according to claim 5, further comprising a function of obtaining a failure probability of a safety device.
- 前記情報取得部は、ベイズ推定に基づいて前記事故起因事象の発生頻度または前記安全装置の失敗確率への前記発生実績の反映を行うことを特徴とする請求項7に記載のプラントの保全管理システム。
The plant maintenance management system according to claim 7, wherein the information acquisition unit reflects the occurrence record in the occurrence frequency of the accident-caused event or the failure probability of the safety device based on Bayesian estimation. ..
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