WO2021031605A1 - System for predicting number of retrieved oocytes during ovarian stimulation of subject - Google Patents

System for predicting number of retrieved oocytes during ovarian stimulation of subject Download PDF

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WO2021031605A1
WO2021031605A1 PCT/CN2020/087232 CN2020087232W WO2021031605A1 WO 2021031605 A1 WO2021031605 A1 WO 2021031605A1 CN 2020087232 W CN2020087232 W CN 2020087232W WO 2021031605 A1 WO2021031605 A1 WO 2021031605A1
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amh
subject
afc
data
fsh
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李蓉
徐慧玉
乔杰
冯国双
韩勇
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北京大学第三医院(北京大学第三临床医学院)
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G16INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
    • G16BBIOINFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR GENETIC OR PROTEIN-RELATED DATA PROCESSING IN COMPUTATIONAL MOLECULAR BIOLOGY
    • G16B40/00ICT specially adapted for biostatistics; ICT specially adapted for bioinformatics-related machine learning or data mining, e.g. knowledge discovery or pattern finding
    • GPHYSICS
    • G16INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
    • G16BBIOINFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR GENETIC OR PROTEIN-RELATED DATA PROCESSING IN COMPUTATIONAL MOLECULAR BIOLOGY
    • G16B50/00ICT programming tools or database systems specially adapted for bioinformatics
    • GPHYSICS
    • G16INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
    • G16HHEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING OR PROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA
    • G16H10/00ICT specially adapted for the handling or processing of patient-related medical or healthcare data
    • G16H10/60ICT specially adapted for the handling or processing of patient-related medical or healthcare data for patient-specific data, e.g. for electronic patient records
    • GPHYSICS
    • G16INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
    • G16HHEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING OR PROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA
    • G16H20/00ICT specially adapted for therapies or health-improving plans, e.g. for handling prescriptions, for steering therapy or for monitoring patient compliance
    • G16H20/40ICT specially adapted for therapies or health-improving plans, e.g. for handling prescriptions, for steering therapy or for monitoring patient compliance relating to mechanical, radiation or invasive therapies, e.g. surgery, laser therapy, dialysis or acupuncture
    • GPHYSICS
    • G16INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
    • G16HHEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING OR PROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA
    • G16H50/00ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics
    • G16H50/20ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics for computer-aided diagnosis, e.g. based on medical expert systems

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  • the present invention relates to a system and method for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation in subjects receiving standard GnRH antagonist regimens for ovulation induction therapy.
  • NROs retrieved oocytes
  • NROs before controlled ovarian stimulation is the only way to perform effective and safe treatment.
  • markers include, for example, age, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), antral follicle count (AFC) and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH). These markers have been widely used. Used to predict ovarian responsiveness. So far, no single marker of ovarian reserve can completely replace other indicators.
  • Clinicians usually choose the starting dose of recombinant FSH (rFSH) based on the women's previous ovarian response history, age, AMH, AFC, basic FSH, body mass index (BMI) and other clinical experience.
  • rFSH recombinant FSH
  • the purpose of the present invention is to provide an effective system that can be used to predict the number of oocytes obtained if a subject receives a standard GnRH antagonist for ovulation induction. In the future, it can be combined with other systems to better guide the selection of ovulation induction programs and recombinant FSH doses.
  • the present invention explores a reliable system to predict receiving NROs in a gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist regimen.
  • GnRH gonadotropin releasing hormone
  • the system of the present invention may have important significance for pre-COS evaluation and clinical consultation during ovarian stimulation in the general population. Utilizing the system or method of the present invention is beneficial to the pregnancy outcome of NROs and women receiving assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment.
  • a system for predicting the number of oocytes obtained in a subject's ovarian stimulation process comprising: a data collection module, which is used to obtain the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basic follicle stimulation FSH levels, antral follicle count (AFC) data; and a module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, which is used to calculate the above-mentioned data obtained in the data acquisition module to calculate the The number of oocytes (NROs) obtained by the participant.
  • AMH anti-Mullerian hormone
  • FSH basic follicle stimulation
  • AFC tral follicle count
  • the subject is a subject who will receive a standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy.
  • anti-Muller therapy for patients who have received standard GnRH antagonist regimens for ovulation induction therapy based on the existing database is stored in advance.
  • the categorical data converted from the levels of AMH, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), and antral follicle count (AFC), and fitting based on the pre-stored patient’s categorical data and negative binomial distribution The formula used to predict the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation when subjects receive standard GnRH antagonist ovulation therapy.
  • the classification data of AMH is obtained by dividing the subjects' anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into five groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
  • AMH is 0.5ng/ml and above and less than 1ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 1;
  • the subject when calculating with the formula, the subject’s basic follicle stimulating hormone collected by the data collection module (FSH)
  • the basic FSH classification data converted from the level is calculated
  • the basic FSH classification data is obtained by dividing the subjects’ Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
  • the classification data of the basic FSH is 0;
  • the classification data of the basic FSH is 1;
  • the classification data of the basic FSH is 2;
  • the count of antral follicles collected by the data acquisition module ( AFC) converted AFC classification data for calculation when calculating with the formula, the count of antral follicles collected by the data acquisition module ( AFC) converted AFC classification data for calculation,
  • the classification data of AFC is obtained by dividing the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) data collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
  • the classification data of AFC is 0;
  • the classification data of AFC is 1;
  • the classification data of AFC is 3.
  • the formula for calculating the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation is determined by using the AMH level of the subject collected by the data collection module
  • the AMH classification data, the FSH classification data determined by the subject's basic FSH level, and the AFC classification data determined by the subject's AFC are calculated to obtain the formula for the number of oocytes (NROs).
  • n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC; wherein m is selected from any value in the range of 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733;
  • the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation is based on the subject’s anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) collected by the data collection module Level, antral follicle count (AFC) data are judged, and the values of n, j and k are confirmed according to the following criteria;
  • n is selected from any value from 0.1994 to 0.5153; n is preferably 0.3574;
  • n is selected from any value from 0.5007 to 0.7984; n is preferably 0.6496;
  • n is selected from any value in the range of 0.6883 to 0.9896; n is preferably 0.8390;
  • n is selected from any value from 0.8385 to 1.1557; n is preferably 0.9971;
  • j is selected from any value from 0.0443 to 0.4112; j is preferably 0.2278;
  • j is selected from any value from -0.0972 to 0.2526; j is preferably 0.0777;
  • j is selected from any value from -0.2618 to 0.0947; j is preferably -0.0835;
  • k is selected from any value from 0.1599 to 0.4629; k is preferably 0.3114;
  • k is selected from any value in the range of 0.3553 to 0.6735; k is preferably 0.5144;
  • the subject is a subject who will receive a standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy.
  • the anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) stored in advance based on the existing database of patients who have received standard GnRH antagonist regimens for ovulation induction therapy is used.
  • AMH anti-Mullerian hormone
  • FSH basal follicle stimulating hormone
  • AFC tral follicle count
  • the collected anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level refers to the concentration of anti-Mullerian hormone in the venous blood of the female subject at any point in the menstrual period
  • the basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level refers to the concentration of follicle stimulating hormone in the venous blood of a female subject after menstruation for 2-4 days
  • the antral follicle count (AFC) refers to the vaginal B ultrasound count of the female subject’s menstrual period 2 -The number of all visible follicles with a diameter of 2-10 mm in the two ovaries at 4 days.
  • the classification data of AMH is obtained by dividing the subjects' anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into five groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
  • the classification data of AMH is 0;
  • AMH is 0.5ng/ml and above and less than 1ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 1;
  • the subject's basic follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level collected by the data collection module is converted into Based on FSH classification data for calculation,
  • the basic FSH classification data is obtained by dividing the subjects’ Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
  • the classification data of the basic FSH is 0;
  • the classification data of the basic FSH is 1;
  • the classification data of the basic FSH is 2;
  • the classification of AFC converted by the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) collected by the data collection module Data when calculating with the formula, the classification of AFC converted by the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) collected by the data collection module Data to calculate,
  • the classification data of AFC is obtained by dividing the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) data collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
  • the classification data of AFC is 0;
  • the classification data of AFC is 1;
  • the classification data of AFC is 2;
  • the classification data of AFC is 3.
  • the formula for calculating the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation is the AMH classification data determined by the subject's AMH level collected by the data collection module, and the test The FSH classification data determined by the subject’s basic FSH level and the AFC classification data determined by the subject’s AFC are calculated to obtain the formula for the number of oocytes (NROs).
  • n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC;
  • n is selected from any value from 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733;
  • antral follicle count (AFC) data to determine, according to the following criteria to confirm the value of n, j and k;
  • n is selected from any value from 0.1994 to 0.5153; n is preferably 0.3574;
  • n is selected from any value from 0.5007 to 0.7984; n is preferably 0.6496;
  • j is selected from any value from 0.0443 to 0.4112; j is preferably 0.2278;
  • j is selected from any value from -0.2618 to 0.0947; j is preferably -0.0835;
  • k is selected from any value from 0.1599 to 0.4629; k is preferably 0.3114;
  • k is selected from any value in the range of 0.5027 to 0.8264; k is preferably 0.6645.
  • the system and method of the present invention can more accurately predict the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation if the subject receives the standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy. Moreover, it can be combined with other systems to better guide the selection of ovulation induction programs and recombinant FSH doses to better realize individualized treatment.
  • Figure 1 shows the number of oocytes obtained by fitting Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution respectively.
  • Figure 2 shows the variable selection process of the pruning forward method.
  • Figure 3 The prediction effect of the prediction model in the training set and validation set.
  • Figure 4 The residual distribution diagram of the prediction model in the training set and the validation set.
  • infertility factors involved in this application are defined as follows.
  • the first or first cause of infertility is male factor;
  • the second or second factor is endometriosis;
  • the third or third factor is fallopian tube factor;
  • the fourth or fourth cause Factors are other factors.
  • Male factor refers to all infertility caused by male factors.
  • Endometriosis is a common gynecological disease in women that is formed when active endometrial cells are planted outside the endometrium. Endometrial cells should grow in the uterine cavity, but because the uterine cavity communicates with the pelvic cavity through the fallopian tube, the endometrial cells can enter the pelvic cavity through the fallopian tube to grow ectopic.
  • the main pathological changes of endometriosis are periodic bleeding of the ectopic endometrium and fibrosis of surrounding tissues.
  • the main symptoms are the formation of ectopic nodules, dysmenorrhea, chronic pelvic pain, abnormal menstruation and infertility. Lesions can affect all pelvic tissues and organs. The most common are the ovaries, uterine rectal depression, and uterosacral ligaments. It can also occur in the abdominal cavity, thoracic cavity, limbs, etc.
  • other factors include excluding male factors, endometrial factors, fallopian tube factors, and other infertility factors that are not the above three types of causes.
  • variable types In statistics, variable types can be divided into quantitative variables and qualitative variables (also called categorical variables).
  • Categorical variables are variables used to describe the categories of things. Categorical variables can be divided into two categories: disordered categorical variables and ordinal categorical variables. Among them, unordered categorical variable (unordered categorical variable) refers to the difference in degree and order between the classified categories or attributes. It can be divided into 1 two categories, such as gender (male, female), drug reaction (negative and positive), etc.; 2 multiple categories, such as blood type (O, A, B, AB), occupation (work, agriculture, Business, learning, military) etc. However, there is a degree of difference between the categories of ordinal categorical variables.
  • urine glucose test results are classified by -, ⁇ , +, ++, +++; curative effects are classified by cure, markedly effective, improved, and invalid.
  • rank data For ordinal categorical variables, you should first group them in rank order, count the number of observation units in each group, and compile a frequency table of ordinal variables (each rank). The data obtained is called rank data.
  • Variable types are not static. According to the needs of research purposes, various types of variables can be transformed. For example, the amount of hemoglobin (g/L) is originally a numerical variable. If hemoglobin is divided into two categories according to normal and low hemoglobin, it can be analyzed according to the two classification data; if according to severe anemia, moderate anemia, mild anemia, normal, hemoglobin When the increase is divided into five grades, it can be analyzed by grade data. Sometimes the categorical data can also be quantified. For example, the patient’s nausea response can be expressed as 0, 1, 2, 3, and then can be analyzed by numerical variable data (quantitative data).
  • Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution (discrete probability distribution) commonly seen in statistics and probability. Poisson distribution is suitable for describing the number of random events in unit time (or space). For example, the number of disease cases in a certain fixed space and time, the number of recurrences of a certain disease, the number of parts of a certain disease metastasis, the number of vomiting times of a certain patient, etc.
  • anti-Mullerian hormone refers to a hormone secreted by the granular cells of small ovarian follicles.
  • Female babies in the fetal period begin to produce AMH.
  • FSH Follicle Stimulating Hormone
  • Basophils in the anterior pituitary gland which is composed of glycoproteins, and its main function is to promote follicle maturation.
  • FSH can promote the proliferation and differentiation of follicular granulosa cells and promote the growth of the entire ovary. And its action on the seminiferous tubules of the testis can promote sperm formation.
  • FSH is secreted in pulses in the human body, and women change with the menstrual cycle.
  • Determination of FSH in serum is of great significance for the diagnosis and treatment of infertility and endocrine diseases, such as understanding pituitary endocrine function, indirect understanding of ovarian functional status, assessing ovarian reserve and ovarian responsiveness, and formulating ovulation-stimulating drug dosages.
  • antral follicle count refers to the number of all visible follicles with a diameter of 2-10 mm in the two ovaries in 2-4 days of menstruation.
  • AFC can measure and count follicles by ultrasound.
  • the basal E2 level refers to the level of estradiol, which is a steroidal estrogen.
  • estradiol which is a steroidal estrogen.
  • the basal estradiol level detected in this application is the estradiol concentration in the venous blood serum sample of a female subject after menstruation for 2-4 days.
  • BMI is an important international standard to measure the degree of human obesity and health, and it is mainly used for statistical analysis. The degree of obesity cannot be judged by the absolute value of weight, it is naturally related to height. Therefore, BMI obtains a relatively objective parameter through the two values of human body weight and height, and uses the range of this parameter to measure body mass.
  • BMI weight/height square (international unit kg/m2)
  • Luteinizing hormone is a glycoprotein gonadotropin secreted by pituitary gland cells, which can promote the conversion of cholesterol into sex hormones in gonadal cells.
  • FSH Follicle Stimulating Hormone
  • luteinizing hormone promotes the synthesis and release of testosterone by testicular stromal cells.
  • the LH level refers to the LH concentration in the venous blood serum sample of a female subject during 2-4 days of menstruation.
  • rFSH refers to recombinant human follicle stimulating hormone.
  • the starting dose of rFSH refers to the dose of recombinant FSH at the first injection for any ovulation induction program.
  • the level of anti-Mullerian hormone refers to the concentration of anti-Mullerian hormone (FSH) in venous blood serum samples at any point in the menstrual cycle of female subjects
  • the level of follicle stimulating hormone is Refers to the concentration of follicle stimulating hormone in venous blood serum samples of female subjects during menstruation for 2-4 days.
  • Antral follicle count refers to the vaginal B-ultrasound count of the two ovaries of female subjects during menstruation for 2-4 days. The number of all visible follicles of 2-10mm.
  • hCG Chogonadotropin alfa, Merck Serono
  • Oocyte recovery was performed 36-38 hours after hCG administration. Transfer one or two embryos or cryopreserve embryos. The subjects were then provided with luteal phase progesterone support (progesterone vaginal gel, Merck Serono).
  • system and method involved in the present application are for the subject who is receiving the standard GnRH antagonist regimen as described above for ovulation induction therapy.
  • This application relates to a system for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation of a subject, which includes: a data collection module for obtaining the level of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), Basic follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, antral follicle count (AFC) data; and a module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, which is used to calculate the above-mentioned data obtained in the data acquisition module, thereby Calculate the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained by the subject.
  • AMH anti-Mullerian hormone
  • FSH Basic follicle stimulating hormone
  • AFC tral follicle count
  • AMH anti-Mullerian hormone
  • FSH basal follicle stimulating hormone
  • AFC tral follicle count
  • the level of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) acquired by the data collection module refers to the concentration of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) in the venous blood of a female subject at any point in the menstrual period, which is acquired by the data collection module
  • the basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level refers to the follicle stimulating hormone concentration in the venous blood of a female subject during menstruation for 2-4 days
  • the antral follicle count (AFC) acquired by the data collection module refers to the vaginal B-ultrasound count The number of all visible follicles with a diameter of 2-10 mm in the two ovaries of female subjects during 2-4 days of menstruation. Subjects who need
  • the classification data converted from the data of follicle count (AFC), and the classification data based on the pre-stored patients and the negative binomial distribution fitting are used to predict that the subject will receive the standard GnRH antagonist regimen ovulation induction treatment ,
  • the formula for the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation can be made for any subject.
  • this pre-stored formula uses pre-stored anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) levels, and basic follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels in patients who have received standard GnRH antagonist ovulation induction therapy in the existing database.
  • AFC Antral follicle count
  • this pre-stored formula is determined by the AMH classification data determined by the subject's AMH level collected by the data collection module, the FSH classification data determined by the subject's basic FSH level, and the subject's AFC.
  • AFC classification data is used to calculate the number of oocytes (NROs) formula.
  • the classification data of AMH is obtained by dividing the subjects' anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into five groups and assigning different classification data as follows.
  • the classification data of AMH is 0; when AMH is 0.5ng/ml and above and less than 1ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 1; when AMH is 1ng/ml and above and less than 2ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 2; When AMH is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 3; and when AMH is 4ng/ml and above, the classification data of AMH is 4.
  • the basic FSH classification data is obtained by dividing the subjects’ follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) levels collected by the data collection module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows.
  • FSH follicle stimulating hormone
  • the classification data of AFC is obtained by dividing the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) data collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows.
  • AFC antral follicle count
  • n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC; wherein m is selected from any value in the range of 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733; when the calculation is performed, ovarian stimulation is predicted
  • Example 1 Selection of subjects initially used to construct a model
  • the data of patients who meet the above 5 criteria are included in the patient population used to construct the model for subsequent model construction.
  • the standard GnRH antagonist ovarian stimulation regimen is performed as follows: human rFSH (eg, Gonal-F alfa [Merck Serono, Germany], Puregon beta [MSD, USA], Urofollitropin [Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc., China] or Menotrophins [Livzon Pharmaceutical ] Group Inc., China]) started to do the drug on the second day of the menstrual cycle.
  • human rFSH eg, Gonal-F alfa [Merck Serono, Germany], Puregon beta [MSD, USA], Urofollitropin [Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc., China] or Menotrophins [Livzon Pharmaceutical ] Group Inc., China]
  • the starting dose of human rFSH is selected based on age, AMH level, basal FSH level, AFC level, and BMI.
  • the dose of rFSH was further adjusted according to the size and number of growing follicles observed by ultrasound and the level of serum E 2 during monitoring of ova
  • hCG Chogonadotropin alfa, Merck Serono
  • Oocyte recovery was performed 36-38 hours after hCG administration. Transfer one or two embryos or cryopreserve embryos. Later, patients or subjects were provided with progesterone support during the luteal phase (progesterone vaginal gel, Merck Serono).
  • the two ovarian follicles with a diameter of 2-10 mm were measured on the second day of the menstrual cycle by transvaginal ultrasound scanning to calculate AFC.
  • venous blood samples were collected to determine the concentration of FSH, LH and E 2 in the serum. Blood is drawn on any day of the menstrual cycle for AMH detection. The collected blood samples were immediately inverted five times, and then after centrifugation and incubation for 30 minutes, the serum concentrations of these markers were evaluated.
  • Serum measurements of FSH, LH, and E 2 were all performed using Siemens Immulite 2000 immunoassay system (Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics, Shanghai, PR China).
  • the three-level quality control of FSH, LH and E 2 was provided by Bio-RAD Laboratories (Lyphochek Immunoassay Plus Control, Trilevel, catalog number 370, lot number 40340).
  • the serum AMH concentration was measured using an ultra-sensitive ELISA (Ansh Labs, USA) kit.
  • the coefficient of variation for quality control AMH, FSH and LH less than 6%, less than 10% for E 2.
  • Table 1 The median of the clinical and basic characteristics of the 1523 patients selected
  • the detected continuous variable analysis indicators are converted into categorical data. This is because there is obvious correlation between the various indicators in the construction model, which will lead to collinearity and reduce the model’s performance. Predictive performance, classification and division can better show the relationship between each index and the number of oocytes obtained; (2) The classification data is easier to interpret in practice and easier to apply. The assignment of each index is shown in Table 2, and the influencing factors in the following table are divided into 4 or 5 groups according to the assignment of Table 2.
  • the age group is divided into four groups, namely less than 30 years old, at this time the classification data for age is 0; 30 years old and less than 35 years old, at this time the classification data for age is 1; 35 years old and less than 40 years old, at this time
  • the categorical data for age is 2; over 40 years old, the categorical data for age at this time is 3.
  • the BMI index is divided into four groups, which are less than 18.5, and the classification data of BMI is 0 at this time; 18.5 and less than 24, the classification data of BMI is 1 at this time; more than 24 and less than 27, the classification data of BMI is 2 at this time; And above 27, the classification data of BMI is 3.
  • AMH is divided into 5 groups, respectively, AMH is less than 0.5ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 0 at this time; AMH is above 0.5 and less than 1ng/ml, and the classification data of AMH is 1 at this time; AMH is more than 1 and less than 2ng /ml, the classification data of AMH is 2 at this time; when AMH is above 2 and less than 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 3 at this time; and when AMH is above 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 4.
  • AFC is divided into 4 groups, respectively, AFC is less than 4, at this time the classification data of AFC is 0; AFC is more than 4 and less than 8, at this time, the classification data of AFC is 1; AFC is more than 8 and less than 12 , The classification data of AFC is 2 at this time; AFC is more than 12, and the classification data of AFC is 3.
  • the basic LH level is divided into 4 groups, respectively, the basic LH level is less than 2IU/L, the classification data of the basic LH level at this time is 0; the basic LH is above 2IU/L and less than 5IU/L, the classification data of the basic LH level at this time When the basic LH level is above 5IU/L and less than 8IU/L, the classification data for the basic LH level is 2; and when the basic LH level is above 8IU/L, the classification data for the basic LH level is 3.
  • the starting dose of rFSH is divided into 4 groups, respectively, the starting dose of rFSH is less than 150IU, the classification data of the starting dose of rFSH is 0; the starting dose of rFSH is above 150IU and less than 250IU, the classification data of the starting dose of rFSH at this time If the starting dose of rFSH is above 250IU and less than 300IU, the classification data of the starting dose of rFSH is 2; and the starting dose of rFSH is above 300IU, and the classification data of the starting dose of rFSH is 3.
  • negative binomial regression is selected to construct the statistical model
  • the selection of predictive indicators adopts the pruning forward method and holdback verification
  • the software JMP Pro v.14 is used to establish a predictive model
  • the data set composed of the above 1523 patients is randomly divided
  • the training set (1066 data, 70%)
  • the validation set (457 data, 30%).
  • the choice of prediction model is mainly based on the negative log likelihood in the validation set. The lower the negative log likelihood in the validation set, the better the model.
  • n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC; wherein m is selected from any value in the range of 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733;
  • the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation is based on the subject’s anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) collected by the data collection module Level, antral follicle count (AFC) data are judged, and the values of n, j and k are confirmed according to the following criteria;
  • n is selected from any value from 0.5007 to 0.7984; n is preferably 0.6496;
  • n is selected from any value from 0.8385 to 1.1557; n is preferably 0.9971;
  • j is selected from any value from 0.0443 to 0.4112; j is preferably 0.2278;
  • j is selected from any value from -0.2618 to 0.0947; j is preferably -0.0835;
  • k is selected from any value from 0.1599 to 0.4629; k is preferably 0.3114;
  • k is selected from any value in the range of 0.3553 to 0.6735; k is preferably 0.5144;
  • k is selected from any value in the range of 0.5027 to 0.8264; k is preferably 0.6645.
  • the prediction effect of the model built with the above method for the training set and the verification set is shown in Figure 3.
  • the abscissa shows the NROs predicted by the model, that is, the predicted number of oocytes obtained by the subject under the standard antagonist regimen, and the ordinate shows the actual detected acquisition of the subject
  • the number of oocytes can be seen as shown in Figure 3.
  • the model constructed above has achieved good prediction effects in both the training set and the verification set, and the predicted data is in good agreement with the actual detected number.
  • the residual distributions of the training set and the validation set are shown in Figure 4. It can be seen that the residuals are normally distributed. It can be seen that the system constructed in this embodiment can be used to make a good prediction of the number of oocytes obtained by the subject.

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Abstract

Provided is a system for predicting the number of retrieved oocytes during the ovarian stimulation of a subject receiving a standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction treatment. The system comprises a data acquisition module used for obtaining data on the anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level and antrum follicle count (AFC) of the subject; and a module used for predicting the number of retrieved oocytes during the ovarian stimulation and calculating the information obtained from the data acquisition module in order to calculate the number of retrieved oocytes (NRO) of the subject.

Description

预测受试者卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的系统System for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation 技术领域Technical field
本发明涉及一种用于预测接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗的受试者在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的系统和方法。The present invention relates to a system and method for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation in subjects receiving standard GnRH antagonist regimens for ovulation induction therapy.
背景技术Background technique
对于经受控制性卵巢刺激(Controlled ovarian stimulation,COS)和IVF/ICSI周期的女性,获取的卵母细胞数量(The number of retrieved oocytes,NROs)被认为是成功怀孕的强有力的替代预后标志物。最佳NROs有助于提高活产率(Live-birth-rate,LBR)。For women undergoing controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) and IVF/ICSI cycles, the number of retrieved oocytes (NROs) obtained is considered a powerful surrogate prognostic marker for successful pregnancy. The best NROs help increase the live birth rate (Live-birth-rate, LBR).
在进行控制性卵巢刺激(COS)之前预测NROs是进行有效和安全治疗的唯一方法。多种标志物已被用于评估卵巢反应,这些标志物包括例如,年龄,基础卵泡刺激素(FSH),窦卵泡计数(AFC)和抗苗勒管激素(AMH),这些标志物已被广泛应用于预测卵巢反应性。迄今为止,没有单一的卵巢储备标记物可以完全取代其他指标。临床医生通常根据女性先前卵巢反应史、年龄、AMH、AFC、基础FSH、体重指数(BMI)等临床经验选择重组FSH(rFSH)的起始剂量。Predicting NROs before controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) is the only way to perform effective and safe treatment. A variety of markers have been used to assess ovarian response. These markers include, for example, age, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), antral follicle count (AFC) and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH). These markers have been widely used. Used to predict ovarian responsiveness. So far, no single marker of ovarian reserve can completely replace other indicators. Clinicians usually choose the starting dose of recombinant FSH (rFSH) based on the women's previous ovarian response history, age, AMH, AFC, basic FSH, body mass index (BMI) and other clinical experience.
发明内容Summary of the invention
综上所述,由于预测NROs的必要性,本发明的目的在于提供一种有效的系统,其可以用于预测如果一个受试者接受标准GnRH拮抗剂促排卵,其获得的卵母细胞的数量,未来可以结合其他系统来更好的指导促排卵方案和重组FSH剂量的选择。本发明探索可靠的系统来预测接受了促性腺激素释放激素(GnRH)拮抗剂方案中的NROs。进一步,由于GnRH拮抗剂方案中的激素水平实际上是任何人的基本激素水平,因此本发明的系统在一般人群中对于COS前评估和卵巢刺激期间的临床咨询可能具有重要意义。利用本发明的系统或方法对NROs和接受辅助生殖技术(ART)治疗的女性的妊娠结果 有益。In summary, due to the necessity of predicting NROs, the purpose of the present invention is to provide an effective system that can be used to predict the number of oocytes obtained if a subject receives a standard GnRH antagonist for ovulation induction. In the future, it can be combined with other systems to better guide the selection of ovulation induction programs and recombinant FSH doses. The present invention explores a reliable system to predict receiving NROs in a gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist regimen. Furthermore, since the hormone level in the GnRH antagonist regimen is actually the basic hormone level of any person, the system of the present invention may have important significance for pre-COS evaluation and clinical consultation during ovarian stimulation in the general population. Utilizing the system or method of the present invention is beneficial to the pregnancy outcome of NROs and women receiving assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment.
在卵巢刺激期间预测卵母细胞(Number of retrieved oocytes,NROs)的数量是进行有效和安全治疗的唯一方法。逻辑回归分析已广泛用于预测卵巢反应的不良与否。但是,将NROs分为两类(即低反应与否)对个体来说不够具体和充分。目前,针对预测特定NROs的研究还非常少,这妨碍了辅助生殖技术中个体化治疗的发展。Predicting the number of retrieved oocytes (NROs) during ovarian stimulation is the only method for effective and safe treatment. Logistic regression analysis has been widely used to predict whether the ovarian response is bad or not. However, dividing NROs into two categories (ie, low response or not) is not specific and sufficient for individuals. At present, there are very few studies on predicting specific NROs, which hinders the development of individualized treatment in assisted reproductive technology.
综上,本发明涉及如下内容:In summary, the present invention involves the following contents:
一种用于预测受试者卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的系统,其包括:数据采集模块,其用于获取受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据;以及预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块,其用于对数据采集模块中的获取的上述数据进行计算,从而计算出受试者的获取的卵母细胞数量(NROs)。A system for predicting the number of oocytes obtained in a subject's ovarian stimulation process, comprising: a data collection module, which is used to obtain the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basic follicle stimulation FSH levels, antral follicle count (AFC) data; and a module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, which is used to calculate the above-mentioned data obtained in the data acquisition module to calculate the The number of oocytes (NROs) obtained by the participant.
在本发明的一个具体的实施方式中,所述受试者是将要接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗的受试者。In a specific embodiment of the present invention, the subject is a subject who will receive a standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy.
在本发明另一个具体的实施方式中,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块中,预先存储有基于现有数据库中接受过标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗患者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据转换成的分类数据,以及基于所述预存的患者的分类数据和负二项分布拟合而成的用于预测受试者在接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗时,在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式。In another specific embodiment of the present invention, in the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, anti-Muller therapy for patients who have received standard GnRH antagonist regimens for ovulation induction therapy based on the existing database is stored in advance. The categorical data converted from the levels of AMH, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), and antral follicle count (AFC), and fitting based on the pre-stored patient’s categorical data and negative binomial distribution The formula used to predict the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation when subjects receive standard GnRH antagonist ovulation therapy.
在本文中,患者是指接受了标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗,并在治疗过程中,对其抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据进行采集,用于构建计算NROs模型的受试者。In this article, a patient refers to a standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy, and during the treatment, his anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, and antral follicle count ( AFC) data were collected and used to construct subjects for calculating NROs model.
在本文中,受试者是指其将要接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗,通过检测其抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据,从而利用本发明的系统和方法可以预测其在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量(NROs)。In this article, the subject means that he will receive the standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy, by testing his anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, and antral follicle count (AFC) Therefore, the system and method of the present invention can be used to predict the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation.
在本发明另一个具体的实施方式中,在数据采集模块中,收集的所述抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平是指女性受试者在月经期任意时间点静脉血中的抗缪勒氏管激素浓度,所述基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平是指女性受试者月经 2-4天的静脉血中的卵泡刺激素浓度,所述窦卵泡计数(AFC)是指阴道B超计数女性受试者月经2-4天时的两个卵巢中直径为2-10mm的所有可见卵泡的个数。In another specific embodiment of the present invention, in the data collection module, the collected anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level refers to the anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level in the venous blood of a female subject at any point in the menstrual period. The basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level refers to the concentration of follicle stimulating hormone in the venous blood of a female subject during menstruation for 2-4 days, and the antral follicle count (AFC) refers to the vaginal B-ultrasound count The number of all visible follicles with a diameter of 2-10mm in the two ovaries of the female subjects during 2-4 days of menstruation
在本发明另一个具体的实施方式中,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平转换而成的AMH的分类数据来进行计算,In another specific embodiment of the present invention, in the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, when calculating with the formula, the subject's anti-Mullerian tube collected by the data collection module AMH classification data converted from hormone (AMH) levels are calculated,
AMH的分类数据来是将数据采集模块采集的受试者抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平分为五组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The classification data of AMH is obtained by dividing the subjects' anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into five groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
AMH小于0.5ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为0;When AMH is less than 0.5ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 0;
AMH在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为1;When AMH is 0.5ng/ml and above and less than 1ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 1;
AMH在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为2;When AMH is 1ng/ml and above and less than 2ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 2;
AMH在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为3;以及When AMH is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 3; and
AMH在4ng/ml及以上时,AMH的分类数据为4。When AMH is 4ng/ml and above, the classification data of AMH is 4.
在本发明的另一个具体的实施方式中,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平转换而成的基础FSH的分类数据来进行计算,In another specific embodiment of the present invention, in the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, when calculating with the formula, the subject’s basic follicle stimulating hormone collected by the data collection module (FSH) The basic FSH classification data converted from the level is calculated,
基础FSH的分类数据是将数据采集模块采集的受试者卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平分为四组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The basic FSH classification data is obtained by dividing the subjects’ Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
基础FSH小于3IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为0;When the basic FSH is less than 3IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 0;
基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且小于5IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为1;When the basic FSH is 3IU/L and above and less than 5IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 1;
基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为2;When the basic FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 2;
基础FSH在8IU/L及以上时,基础FSH的分类数据为3。When the basic FSH is 8IU/L and above, the classification data of the basic FSH is 3.
在本发明的另一个具体的实施方式中,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者窦卵泡计数(AFC)转换的AFC的分类数据来进行计算,In another specific embodiment of the present invention, in the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, when calculating with the formula, the count of antral follicles collected by the data acquisition module ( AFC) converted AFC classification data for calculation,
AFC的分类数据是将数据采集模块采集的受试者窦卵泡计数(AFC)数据分为四组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The classification data of AFC is obtained by dividing the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) data collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
AFC小于4个时,AFC的分类数据为0;When AFC is less than 4, the classification data of AFC is 0;
AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,AFC的分类数据为1;When AFC is 4 or more and less than 8, the classification data of AFC is 1;
AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,AFC的分类数据为2;When AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, the classification data of AFC is 2;
AFC为12个及以上时,AFC的分类数据为3。When AFC is 12 or more, the classification data of AFC is 3.
在本发明的另一个具体的实施方式中,所述用于计算在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式是利用所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的AMH水平确定的AMH的分类数据、受试者的基础FSH水平确定的FSH分类数据和受试者的AFC确定的AFC的分类数据来计算获得卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式。In another specific embodiment of the present invention, the formula for calculating the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation is determined by using the AMH level of the subject collected by the data collection module The AMH classification data, the FSH classification data determined by the subject's basic FSH level, and the AFC classification data determined by the subject's AFC are calculated to obtain the formula for the number of oocytes (NROs).
在本发明的另一个具体的实施方式中,上述公式为如下公式一:In another specific embodiment of the present invention, the above formula is the following formula 1:
Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH分类数据+j*基础FSH分类数据+k*AFC分类数据(公式一);Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH classification data+j*basic FSH classification data+k*AFC classification data (formula 1);
其中n,j和k基于所述AMH、基础FSH和AFC的分类数据来确定取值;其中m选自0.7435~1.2111中的任意数值,m优选为0.9733;Wherein n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC; wherein m is selected from any value in the range of 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733;
在进行所述计算时,预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块基于所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据进行判断,根据以下标准来确认所述n、j和k的取值;When performing the calculation, the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation is based on the subject’s anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) collected by the data collection module Level, antral follicle count (AFC) data are judged, and the values of n, j and k are confirmed according to the following criteria;
当所述受试者的AMH水平小于0.5ng/ml时,n=0;When the subject's AMH level is less than 0.5ng/ml, n=0;
当所述受试者的AMH水平在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,n选自0.1994~0.5153中的任意数值;n优选为0.3574;When the subject's AMH level is 0.5 ng/ml and above and less than 1 ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.1994 to 0.5153; n is preferably 0.3574;
当所述受试者的AMH水平在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,n选自0.5007~0.7984中的任意数值;n优选为0.6496;When the subject's AMH level is 1 ng/ml and above and less than 2 ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.5007 to 0.7984; n is preferably 0.6496;
当所述受试者AMH水平在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,n选自0.6883~0.9896中的任意数值;n优选为0.8390;When the subject's AMH level is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, n is selected from any value in the range of 0.6883 to 0.9896; n is preferably 0.8390;
当所述受试者AMH水平在4ng/ml及以上时,n选自0.8385~1.1557中的任意数值;n优选为0.9971;When the subject's AMH level is 4ng/ml and above, n is selected from any value from 0.8385 to 1.1557; n is preferably 0.9971;
当所述受试者的基础FSH小于3IU/L时,j选自0.0443~0.4112中的任意数值;j优选为0.2278;When the subject’s basal FSH is less than 3IU/L, j is selected from any value from 0.0443 to 0.4112; j is preferably 0.2278;
当所述受试者的基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且小于5IU/L时,j选自-0.0972~0.2526中的任意数值;j优选为0.0777;When the subject's basal FSH is 3IU/L and above and less than 5IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.0972 to 0.2526; j is preferably 0.0777;
当所述受试者的基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,j选自-0.2618~0.0947中的任意数值;j优选为-0.0835;When the subject's basal FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.2618 to 0.0947; j is preferably -0.0835;
当所述受试者的AFC小于4个时,k=0;When the subject's AFC is less than 4, k=0;
当所述受试者的AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,k选自0.1599~0.4629中的任意数值;k优选为0.3114;When the AFC of the subject is 4 or more and less than 8, k is selected from any value from 0.1599 to 0.4629; k is preferably 0.3114;
当所述受试者的AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,k选自0.3553~0.6735中的任意数值;k优选为0.5144;When the subject's AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, k is selected from any value in the range of 0.3553 to 0.6735; k is preferably 0.5144;
当所述受试者的AFC为12个及以上时,k选自0.5027~0.8264中的任意数值;k优选为0.6645。When the AFC of the subject is 12 or more, k is selected from any value in the range of 0.5027 to 0.8264; k is preferably 0.6645.
本发明还涉及一种用于预测受试者卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的方法,其包括:数据采集步骤,其获取受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据;以及预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的步骤,其对数据采集模块中的获取的上述数据进行计算,从而计算出受试者的获取的卵母细胞数量(NROs)。The present invention also relates to a method for predicting the number of oocytes obtained in a subject's ovarian stimulation process, which includes: a data collection step, which obtains the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basic Follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, antral follicle count (AFC) data; and the step of predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, which calculates the above-mentioned data obtained in the data acquisition module to calculate the The number of oocytes (NROs) obtained by the participant.
在上述方法中,所述受试者是将要接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗的受试者。In the above method, the subject is a subject who will receive a standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy.
在上述方法中,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的步骤中,利用预先存储有基于现有数据库中接受过标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗患者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据转换成的分类数据,以及基于所述预存的患者的分类数据和负二项分布拟合而成的用于预测受试者在接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗时,在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式来进行计算。In the above method, in the step of predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, the anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) stored in advance based on the existing database of patients who have received standard GnRH antagonist regimens for ovulation induction therapy is used. ) Level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, antral follicle count (AFC) data converted into categorical data, and based on the pre-stored patient’s categorical data and the negative binomial distribution fitted to predict the affected When the subjects received the standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy, the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation was calculated using the formula.
在上述方法中,在数据采集步骤中,收集的所述抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平是指女性受试者在月经期任意时间点静脉血中的抗缪勒氏管激素浓度,所述基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平是指女性受试者月经2-4天的静脉血中的卵泡刺激素浓度,所述窦卵泡计数(AFC)是指阴道B超计数女性受试者月经2-4天时的两个卵巢中直径为2-10mm的所有可见卵泡的个数。In the above method, in the data collection step, the collected anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level refers to the concentration of anti-Mullerian hormone in the venous blood of the female subject at any point in the menstrual period, so The basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level refers to the concentration of follicle stimulating hormone in the venous blood of a female subject after menstruation for 2-4 days, and the antral follicle count (AFC) refers to the vaginal B ultrasound count of the female subject’s menstrual period 2 -The number of all visible follicles with a diameter of 2-10 mm in the two ovaries at 4 days.
在上述方法中,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的步骤中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平转换而成的AMH的分类数据来进行计算,In the above method, in the step of predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, when calculating with the formula, the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level collected by the data collection module is used to convert Categorized data from AMH for calculation,
AMH的分类数据来是将数据采集模块采集的受试者抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平分为五组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The classification data of AMH is obtained by dividing the subjects' anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into five groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
AMH小于0.5ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为0;When AMH is less than 0.5ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 0;
AMH在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为1;When AMH is 0.5ng/ml and above and less than 1ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 1;
AMH在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为2;When AMH is 1ng/ml and above and less than 2ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 2;
AMH在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为3;以及When AMH is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 3; and
AMH在4ng/ml及以上时,AMH的分类数据为4。When AMH is 4ng/ml and above, the classification data of AMH is 4.
在上述方法中,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的步骤中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平转换而成的基础FSH的分类数据来进行计算,In the above method, in the step of predicting the number of oocytes obtained in the process of ovarian stimulation, when calculating using the formula, the subject's basic follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level collected by the data collection module is converted into Based on FSH classification data for calculation,
基础FSH的分类数据是将数据采集模块采集的受试者卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平分为四组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The basic FSH classification data is obtained by dividing the subjects’ Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
基础FSH小于3IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为0;When the basic FSH is less than 3IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 0;
基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且小于5IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为1;When the basic FSH is 3IU/L and above and less than 5IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 1;
基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为2;When the basic FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 2;
基础FSH在8IU/L及以上时,基础FSH的分类数据为3。When the basic FSH is 8IU/L and above, the classification data of the basic FSH is 3.
在上述方法中,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的步骤中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者窦卵泡计数(AFC)转换的AFC的分类数据来进行计算,In the above method, in the step of predicting the number of oocytes obtained in the process of ovarian stimulation, when calculating with the formula, the classification of AFC converted by the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) collected by the data collection module Data to calculate,
AFC的分类数据是将数据采集模块采集的受试者窦卵泡计数(AFC)数据分为四组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The classification data of AFC is obtained by dividing the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) data collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
AFC小于4个时,AFC的分类数据为0;When AFC is less than 4, the classification data of AFC is 0;
AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,AFC的分类数据为1;When AFC is 4 or more and less than 8, the classification data of AFC is 1;
AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,AFC的分类数据为2;When AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, the classification data of AFC is 2;
AFC为12个及以上时,AFC的分类数据为3。When AFC is 12 or more, the classification data of AFC is 3.
在上述方法中,所述用于计算在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式是利用所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的AMH水平确定的AMH的分类数据、受试者的基础FSH水平确定的FSH分类数据和受试者的AFC确定的AFC的分类数据来计算获得卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式。In the above method, the formula for calculating the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation is the AMH classification data determined by the subject's AMH level collected by the data collection module, and the test The FSH classification data determined by the subject’s basic FSH level and the AFC classification data determined by the subject’s AFC are calculated to obtain the formula for the number of oocytes (NROs).
在上述方法中,上述公式为如下公式一:In the above method, the above formula is the following formula 1:
Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH分类数据+j*基础FSH分类数据+k*AFC分类数据(公式一);Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH classification data+j*basic FSH classification data+k*AFC classification data (formula 1);
其中n,j和k基于所述AMH、基础FSH和AFC的分类数据来确定取 值;Wherein n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC;
其中m选自0.7435~1.2111中的任意数值,m优选为0.9733;Wherein m is selected from any value from 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733;
在进行所述计算时,在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的步骤中,基于所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据进行判断,根据以下标准来确认所述n、j和k的取值;When performing the calculation, in the step of predicting the number of oocytes obtained in the process of ovarian stimulation, based on the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basal follicle stimulating hormone collected by the data collection module (FSH) level, antral follicle count (AFC) data to determine, according to the following criteria to confirm the value of n, j and k;
当所述受试者的AMH水平小于0.5ng/ml时,n=0;When the subject's AMH level is less than 0.5ng/ml, n=0;
当所述受试者的AMH水平在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,n选自0.1994~0.5153中的任意数值;n优选为0.3574;When the subject's AMH level is 0.5 ng/ml and above and less than 1 ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.1994 to 0.5153; n is preferably 0.3574;
当所述受试者的AMH水平在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,n选自0.5007~0.7984中的任意数值;n优选为0.6496;When the subject's AMH level is 1 ng/ml and above and less than 2 ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.5007 to 0.7984; n is preferably 0.6496;
当所述受试者AMH水平在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,n选自0.6883~0.9896中的任意数值;n优选为0.8390;When the subject's AMH level is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, n is selected from any value in the range of 0.6883 to 0.9896; n is preferably 0.8390;
当所述受试者AMH水平在4ng/ml及以上时,n选自0.8385~1.1557中的任意数值;n优选为0.9971;When the subject's AMH level is 4ng/ml and above, n is selected from any value from 0.8385 to 1.1557; n is preferably 0.9971;
当所述受试者的基础FSH小于3IU/L时,j选自0.0443~0.4112中的任意数值;j优选为0.2278;When the subject’s basal FSH is less than 3IU/L, j is selected from any value from 0.0443 to 0.4112; j is preferably 0.2278;
当所述受试者的基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且小于5IU/L时,j选自-0.0972~0.2526中的任意数值;j优选为0.0777;When the subject's basal FSH is 3IU/L and above and less than 5IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.0972 to 0.2526; j is preferably 0.0777;
当所述受试者的基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,j选自-0.2618~0.0947中的任意数值;j优选为-0.0835;When the subject's basal FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.2618 to 0.0947; j is preferably -0.0835;
当所述受试者的AFC小于4个时,k=0;When the subject's AFC is less than 4, k=0;
当所述受试者的AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,k选自0.1599~0.4629中的任意数值;k优选为0.3114;When the AFC of the subject is 4 or more and less than 8, k is selected from any value from 0.1599 to 0.4629; k is preferably 0.3114;
当所述受试者的AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,k选自0.3553~0.6735中的任意数值;k优选为0.5144;When the subject's AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, k is selected from any value in the range of 0.3553 to 0.6735; k is preferably 0.5144;
当所述受试者的AFC为12个及以上时,k选自0.5027~0.8264中的任意数值;k优选为0.6645。When the AFC of the subject is 12 or more, k is selected from any value in the range of 0.5027 to 0.8264; k is preferably 0.6645.
发明的效果Effect of invention
一般来说如果能够准确地预测受试者获卵数时,当预测的获卵数越多,促排卵治疗过程中需要的促性腺激素使用量越低,反之,则促排卵过程中需要的促性腺激素使用量越多。利用本发明的系统和方法可以更为准确地预测如果受试者接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗,其卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量。并且,其可以结合其他系统来更好的指导促排卵方案和重组FSH剂量的选择,以更好的实现个体化治疗。Generally speaking, if the number of eggs obtained by the subject can be accurately predicted, the more the predicted number of eggs, the lower the amount of gonadotropin required in the process of ovulation induction treatment. On the contrary, the need to promote the process of ovulation induction The more gonadal hormones are used. The system and method of the present invention can more accurately predict the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation if the subject receives the standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy. Moreover, it can be combined with other systems to better guide the selection of ovulation induction programs and recombinant FSH doses to better realize individualized treatment.
附图说明Description of the drawings
通过阅读下文优选的具体实施方式中的详细描述,本申请各种其他的优点和益处对于本领域普通技术人员将变得清楚明了。说明书附图仅用于示出优选实施方式的目的,而并不认为是对本申请的限制。显而易见地,下面描述的附图仅仅是本申请的一些实施例,对于本领域普通技术人员来讲,在不付出创造性劳动的前提下,还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。而且在整个附图中,用相同的附图标记表示相同的部件。By reading the detailed description in the following preferred embodiments, various other advantages and benefits of the present application will become clear to those of ordinary skill in the art. The drawings in the specification are only used for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments, and are not considered as a limitation to the application. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the application. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work. Also, throughout the drawings, the same reference numerals are used to denote the same components.
图1分别显示了Poisson分布和负二项分布的拟合获取的卵母细胞数量情况。Figure 1 shows the number of oocytes obtained by fitting Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution respectively.
图2显示了修剪的前进法的变量筛选过程。Figure 2 shows the variable selection process of the pruning forward method.
图3预测模型在训练集和验证集中的预测效果。Figure 3 The prediction effect of the prediction model in the training set and validation set.
图4预测模型在训练集和验证集中的残差分布图。Figure 4 The residual distribution diagram of the prediction model in the training set and the validation set.
具体实施方式detailed description
下面将参照附图更详细地描述本发明的具体实施例。虽然附图中显示了本发明的具体实施例,然而应当理解,可以以各种形式实现本发明而不应被这里阐述的实施例所限制。相反,提供这些实施例是为了能够更透彻地理解本发明,并且能够将本发明的范围完整的传达给本领域的技术人员。Hereinafter, specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Although specific embodiments of the present invention are shown in the drawings, it should be understood that the present invention can be implemented in various forms and should not be limited by the embodiments set forth herein. On the contrary, these embodiments are provided to enable a more thorough understanding of the present invention and to fully convey the scope of the present invention to those skilled in the art.
需要说明的是,在说明书及权利要求当中使用了某些词汇来指称特定组件。本领域技术人员应可以理解,技术人员可能会用不同名词来称呼同一个组件。本说明书及权利要求并不以名词的差异来作为区分组件的方式,而是以组件在功能上的差异来作为区分的准则。如在通篇说明书及权利要求当中所提及的“包含”或“包括”为一开放式用语,故应解释成“包含但 不限定于”。说明书后续描述为实施本发明的较佳实施方式,然所述描述乃以说明书的一般原则为目的,并非用以限定本发明的范围。本发明的保护范围当视所附权利要求所界定者为准。It should be noted that certain words are used in the description and claims to refer to specific components. Those skilled in the art should understand that they may use different terms to refer to the same component. This specification and claims do not use differences in terms as a way to distinguish components, but use differences in functions of components as a criterion for distinguishing. If "include" or "include" mentioned in the entire specification and claims is an open term, it should be interpreted as "include but not limited to". The following description of the specification is a preferred embodiment for implementing the present invention, but the description is based on the general principles of the specification and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. The protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to those defined by the appended claims.
在本申请中涉及的几种不孕的因素定义如下。在本文中不孕症的第一原因或第一因素是男性因素;第二原因或第二因素是子宫内膜异位;第三原因或第三因素是是输卵管因素;第四原因或第四因素是其它因素。Several infertility factors involved in this application are defined as follows. In this article, the first or first cause of infertility is male factor; the second or second factor is endometriosis; the third or third factor is fallopian tube factor; the fourth or fourth cause Factors are other factors.
男性因素是指所有由于男性原因导致的不孕。Male factor refers to all infertility caused by male factors.
子宫内膜异位是指有活性的内膜细胞种植在子宫内膜以外的位置而形成的一种女性常见妇科疾病。内膜细胞本该生长在子宫腔内,但由于子宫腔通过输卵管与盆腔相通,因此使得内膜细胞可经由输卵管进入盆腔异位生长。子宫内膜异位的主要病理变化为异位内膜周期性出血及其周围组织纤维化,形成异位结节、痛经、慢性盆腔痛、月经异常和不孕是其主要症状。病变可以波及所有的盆腔组织和器官,以卵巢、子宫直肠陷凹、宫骶韧带等部位最常见,也可发生于腹腔、胸腔、四肢等处。Endometriosis is a common gynecological disease in women that is formed when active endometrial cells are planted outside the endometrium. Endometrial cells should grow in the uterine cavity, but because the uterine cavity communicates with the pelvic cavity through the fallopian tube, the endometrial cells can enter the pelvic cavity through the fallopian tube to grow ectopic. The main pathological changes of endometriosis are periodic bleeding of the ectopic endometrium and fibrosis of surrounding tissues. The main symptoms are the formation of ectopic nodules, dysmenorrhea, chronic pelvic pain, abnormal menstruation and infertility. Lesions can affect all pelvic tissues and organs. The most common are the ovaries, uterine rectal depression, and uterosacral ligaments. It can also occur in the abdominal cavity, thoracic cavity, limbs, etc.
输卵管因素是指,由于输卵管具有运送精子、拾取卵子及把受精卵运送到子宫腔的重要作用,输卵管不通或功能障碍成为女性不孕症的主要原因。造成输卵管不通或功能障碍的原因是急、慢性输卵管炎症。The fallopian tube factor refers to the fact that the fallopian tube has an important role in transporting sperm, picking up eggs, and transporting fertilized eggs to the uterine cavity. Obstruction or dysfunction of the fallopian tube becomes the main cause of female infertility. The cause of blocked fallopian tubes or dysfunction is acute and chronic inflammation of the fallopian tubes.
在本申请中,其他因素包括排除男性因素、子宫内膜因素、输卵管因素、以及不是以上三类病因的其他不孕因素。In this application, other factors include excluding male factors, endometrial factors, fallopian tube factors, and other infertility factors that are not the above three types of causes.
变量类型:在统计学中,变量类型可分为定量变量与定性变量(也称分类变量)两种。Variable types: In statistics, variable types can be divided into quantitative variables and qualitative variables (also called categorical variables).
定量变量是用于描述事物数量和个数的变量,又可分为连续型和离散型。连续型变量是指在一定区间内可以任意取值的变量,其数值是连续不断的,可以有小数点。例如,血压值、血糖值,人体测量的身高、体重、胸围等为连续变量,其数值只能用测量或计量的方法取得。离散型变量是指其取值只能是自然数或整数单位的变量。例如,疼痛分值,病灶转移个数,获卵数等,只能是正数,不能取小数点,这种变量的数值一般用计数方法取得。Quantitative variables are variables used to describe the quantity and number of things, and can be divided into continuous and discrete types. Continuous variables refer to variables that can take values arbitrarily within a certain interval, and their values are continuous and can have decimal points. For example, blood pressure, blood sugar, body height, weight, chest circumference, etc. are continuous variables, and their values can only be obtained by measurement or measurement. Discrete variables refer to variables whose values can only be natural numbers or integer units. For example, the pain score, the number of metastatic lesions, the number of eggs harvested, etc., can only be positive numbers, not decimal points. The value of this variable is generally obtained by counting.
分类变量是用于描述事物类别的变量。分类变量可以分为无序分类变量和有序分类变量两大类。其中,无序分类变量(unordered categorical variable)是指所分类别或属性之间无程度和顺序的差别。其又可分为①二项 分类,如性别(男、女),药物反应(阴性和阳性)等;②多项分类,如血型(O、A、B、AB),职业(工、农、商、学、兵)等。而有序分类变量(ordinal categorical variable)各类别之间有程度的差别。如尿糖化验结果按-、±、+、++、+++分类;疗效按治愈、显效、好转、无效分类。对于有序分类变量,应先按等级顺序分组,清点各组的观察单位个数,编制有序变量(各等级)的频数表,所得资料称为等级资料。Categorical variables are variables used to describe the categories of things. Categorical variables can be divided into two categories: disordered categorical variables and ordinal categorical variables. Among them, unordered categorical variable (unordered categorical variable) refers to the difference in degree and order between the classified categories or attributes. It can be divided into ① two categories, such as gender (male, female), drug reaction (negative and positive), etc.; ② multiple categories, such as blood type (O, A, B, AB), occupation (work, agriculture, Business, learning, military) etc. However, there is a degree of difference between the categories of ordinal categorical variables. For example, urine glucose test results are classified by -, ±, +, ++, +++; curative effects are classified by cure, markedly effective, improved, and invalid. For ordinal categorical variables, you should first group them in rank order, count the number of observation units in each group, and compile a frequency table of ordinal variables (each rank). The data obtained is called rank data.
变量类型不是一成不变的,根据研究目的的需要,各类变量之间可以进行转化。例如血红蛋白量(g/L)原属数值变量,若按血红蛋白正常与偏低分为两类时,可按二项分类资料分析;若按重度贫血、中度贫血、轻度贫血、正常、血红蛋白增高分为五个等级时,可按等级资料分析。有时亦可将分类资料数量化,如可将病人的恶心反应以0、1、2、3表示,则可按数值变量资料(定量资料)分析。Variable types are not static. According to the needs of research purposes, various types of variables can be transformed. For example, the amount of hemoglobin (g/L) is originally a numerical variable. If hemoglobin is divided into two categories according to normal and low hemoglobin, it can be analyzed according to the two classification data; if according to severe anemia, moderate anemia, mild anemia, normal, hemoglobin When the increase is divided into five grades, it can be analyzed by grade data. Sometimes the categorical data can also be quantified. For example, the patient’s nausea response can be expressed as 0, 1, 2, 3, and then can be analyzed by numerical variable data (quantitative data).
泊松分布(Poisson distribution)是一种统计与概率学里常见到的离散概率分布(discrete probability distribution)。泊松分布适合于描述单位时间(或空间)内随机事件发生的次数。如某一固定空间和时间内出现的疾病例数,某疾病复发的次数,某病灶转移的部位数,某患者呕吐次数,等等。Poisson distribution (Poisson distribution) is a discrete probability distribution (discrete probability distribution) commonly seen in statistics and probability. Poisson distribution is suitable for describing the number of random events in unit time (or space). For example, the number of disease cases in a certain fixed space and time, the number of recurrences of a certain disease, the number of parts of a certain disease metastasis, the number of vomiting times of a certain patient, etc.
负二项分布是统计学上一种离散概率分布。满足以下条件的称为负二项分布:实验包含一系列独立的实验,每个实验都有成功、失败两种结果,成功的概率是恒定的,实验持续到r次成功,r为正整数。负二项分布与Poisson分布类似,也可用于描述某单位时间、空间内某罕见事件的相对频率。其与Poisson分布不同之处在于,Poisson分布只能用于描述独立性事件,而负二项分布常用于描述聚集性事件,如钉螺在土壤中的分布、某传染病的分布等。通常如果计数资料发现其均值大于方差的现象,此时Poisson分布往往拟合效果不好,可考虑负二项分布。The negative binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution in statistics. The negative binomial distribution that meets the following conditions is called a negative binomial distribution: the experiment contains a series of independent experiments, each experiment has two results, success and failure, the probability of success is constant, the experiment continues until r successes, and r is a positive integer. The negative binomial distribution is similar to the Poisson distribution, and can also be used to describe the relative frequency of a rare event in a unit of time and space. It is different from the Poisson distribution in that the Poisson distribution can only be used to describe independent events, while the negative binomial distribution is often used to describe aggregate events, such as the distribution of snails in the soil, the distribution of an infectious disease, etc. Generally, if the count data finds the phenomenon that the mean value is greater than the variance, the Poisson distribution often does not fit well, and the negative binomial distribution can be considered.
在本申请中,抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)是指一种由卵巢小卵泡的颗粒层细胞所分泌的荷尔蒙,胎儿时期的女宝宝便开始制造AMH,卵巢内的小卵泡数量越多,AMH的浓度便越高;反之,当卵泡随着年龄及各种因素逐渐消耗,AMH浓度也会随之降低,越接近更年期,AMH便渐趋于0。In this application, anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) refers to a hormone secreted by the granular cells of small ovarian follicles. Female babies in the fetal period begin to produce AMH. The more small follicles there are in the ovaries, The higher the concentration of AMH; on the contrary, when the follicles are gradually consumed with age and various factors, the concentration of AMH will also decrease, and the closer to menopause, the AMH gradually tends to zero.
在本申请中,卵泡刺激素(FSH)是指垂体前叶嗜碱性细胞分泌的一种激素,成分为糖蛋白,主要作用为促进卵泡成熟。FSH可促进卵泡颗粒层细胞增生分化,并促进整个卵巢长大。而其作用于睾丸曲细精管则可促进精子形 成。FSH在人体内呈脉冲式分泌,女性随月经周期而改变。测定血清中FSH对了解垂体内分泌功能,间接了解卵巢的功能状态、评估卵巢储备及卵巢反应性、制定促排卵用药剂量等不孕和内分泌疾病的诊断治疗都有重要的意义。In this application, Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) refers to a hormone secreted by basophils in the anterior pituitary gland, which is composed of glycoproteins, and its main function is to promote follicle maturation. FSH can promote the proliferation and differentiation of follicular granulosa cells and promote the growth of the entire ovary. And its action on the seminiferous tubules of the testis can promote sperm formation. FSH is secreted in pulses in the human body, and women change with the menstrual cycle. Determination of FSH in serum is of great significance for the diagnosis and treatment of infertility and endocrine diseases, such as understanding pituitary endocrine function, indirect understanding of ovarian functional status, assessing ovarian reserve and ovarian responsiveness, and formulating ovulation-stimulating drug dosages.
在本申请中,窦卵泡计数(AFC)是指月经2-4天两个卵巢中直径为2-10mm的所有可见卵泡的个数。AFC可以通过超声波对卵泡测量和计数。In this application, the antral follicle count (AFC) refers to the number of all visible follicles with a diameter of 2-10 mm in the two ovaries in 2-4 days of menstruation. AFC can measure and count follicles by ultrasound.
基础E2水平是指雌二醇水平,雌二醇是一种甾体雌激素。有α,β两种类型,α型生理作用强。它有很强的性激素作用,所以认为它或它的酯实际上是卵巢分泌的最重要的性激素。在本申请中检测基础雌二醇水平是女性受试者月经2-4天的静脉血血清样本中的雌二醇浓度。The basal E2 level refers to the level of estradiol, which is a steroidal estrogen. There are two types of α and β, and the α type has a strong physiological effect. It has a strong sex hormone effect, so it is believed that it or its ester is actually the most important sex hormone secreted by the ovaries. The basal estradiol level detected in this application is the estradiol concentration in the venous blood serum sample of a female subject after menstruation for 2-4 days.
BMI是国际上常用的衡量人体肥胖程度和是否健康的重要标准,主要用于统计分析。肥胖程度的判断不能采用体重的绝对值,它天然与身高有关。因此,BMI通过人体体重和身高两个数值获得相对客观的参数,并用这个参数所处范围衡量身体质量。BMI=体重/身高的平方(国际单位kg/㎡)BMI is an important international standard to measure the degree of human obesity and health, and it is mainly used for statistical analysis. The degree of obesity cannot be judged by the absolute value of weight, it is naturally related to height. Therefore, BMI obtains a relatively objective parameter through the two values of human body weight and height, and uses the range of this parameter to measure body mass. BMI = weight/height square (international unit kg/㎡)
促黄体生成素(LH)由腺垂体细胞分泌的一种糖蛋白类促性腺激素,可促进胆固醇在性腺细胞内转化为性激素。对于女性来说,与促卵泡激素(FSH)共同作用促进卵泡成熟,分泌雌激素、排卵,以及黄体的生成和维持,分泌孕激素和雌激素。对于男性来说,促黄体生产素促成睾丸间质细胞合成和释放睾酮。LH水平是指女性受试者月经2-4天的静脉血血清样本中的LH浓度。Luteinizing hormone (LH) is a glycoprotein gonadotropin secreted by pituitary gland cells, which can promote the conversion of cholesterol into sex hormones in gonadal cells. For women, it works with Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) to promote the maturation of follicles, the secretion of estrogen, ovulation, the production and maintenance of the corpus luteum, and the secretion of progesterone and estrogen. For men, luteinizing hormone promotes the synthesis and release of testosterone by testicular stromal cells. The LH level refers to the LH concentration in the venous blood serum sample of a female subject during 2-4 days of menstruation.
在本文中,rFSH是指重组人促卵泡激素。其中rFSH的起始剂量是指针对任何促排卵方案,在第一次注射时重组FSH的剂量。In this article, rFSH refers to recombinant human follicle stimulating hormone. The starting dose of rFSH refers to the dose of recombinant FSH at the first injection for any ovulation induction program.
在本申请中,抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平是指女性受试者月经周期中任意时间点的静脉血血清样本中的抗缪勒氏管激素浓度,卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平是指女性受试者月经2-4天的静脉血血清样本中的卵泡刺激素浓度,窦卵泡计数(AFC)是指阴道B超计数女性受试者月经2-4天时的两个卵巢中直径为2-10mm的所有可见卵泡的个数。In this application, the level of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) refers to the concentration of anti-Mullerian hormone (FSH) in venous blood serum samples at any point in the menstrual cycle of female subjects, and the level of follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) is Refers to the concentration of follicle stimulating hormone in venous blood serum samples of female subjects during menstruation for 2-4 days. Antral follicle count (AFC) refers to the vaginal B-ultrasound count of the two ovaries of female subjects during menstruation for 2-4 days. The number of all visible follicles of 2-10mm.
本申请所述的标准GnRH拮抗剂卵巢刺激方案如下进行:人重组FSH(人rFSH)(例如,Gonal-F alfa[Merck Serono,Germany],Puregon beta[MSD,USA],Urofollitropin[Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.,China]或Menotrophins[Livzon Pharmaceutical]Group Inc.,China])在月经周期第2天开始给药。基于年龄、AMH水平、基础FSH水平、AFC水平以及BMI等对人rFSH的起 始剂量来进行选择。根据超声观察到的生长卵泡的大小和数量以及监测卵巢刺激期间的血清E 2水平进一步进行rFSH剂量的调整。当生长的卵泡直径达到10-12mm时,开始GnRH拮抗剂治疗。当通过超声观察到至少两个优势卵泡直径超过18mm时,注射hCG(Choriogonadotropin alfa,Merck Serono)剂量为5000-10000IU以触发最终的卵母细胞成熟。在hCG施用后36-38小时进行卵母细胞回收。移植一至两个胚胎或进行胚胎冷冻保存。之后向受试者提供黄体期孕酮支持(孕酮阴道凝胶,Merck Serono)。 The standard GnRH antagonist ovarian stimulation protocol described in this application is performed as follows: human recombinant FSH (human rFSH) (for example, Gonal-F alfa [Merck Serono, Germany], Puregon beta [MSD, USA], Urofollitropin [Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc ., China] or Menotrophins [Livzon Pharmaceutical] Group Inc., China]) start the administration on the second day of the menstrual cycle. The starting dose of human rFSH is selected based on age, AMH level, basal FSH level, AFC level, and BMI. The dose of rFSH was further adjusted according to the size and number of growing follicles observed by ultrasound and the level of serum E 2 during monitoring of ovarian stimulation. When the diameter of the growing follicle reaches 10-12mm, GnRH antagonist treatment is started. When the diameter of at least two dominant follicles exceeds 18mm is observed by ultrasound, the dose of hCG (Choriogonadotropin alfa, Merck Serono) is injected at 5000-10000IU to trigger the final oocyte maturation. Oocyte recovery was performed 36-38 hours after hCG administration. Transfer one or two embryos or cryopreserve embryos. The subjects were then provided with luteal phase progesterone support (progesterone vaginal gel, Merck Serono).
在本申请的具体的实施方案中,本申请涉及的系统和方法是针对受试者是接受如上所述标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗的受试者。In a specific embodiment of the present application, the system and method involved in the present application are for the subject who is receiving the standard GnRH antagonist regimen as described above for ovulation induction therapy.
本申请涉及一种用于预测受试者卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的系统,其包括:数据采集模块,其用于获取受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据;以及预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块,其用于对数据采集模块中的获取的上述数据进行计算,从而计算出受试者的获取的卵母细胞数量(NROs)。This application relates to a system for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation of a subject, which includes: a data collection module for obtaining the level of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), Basic follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, antral follicle count (AFC) data; and a module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, which is used to calculate the above-mentioned data obtained in the data acquisition module, thereby Calculate the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained by the subject.
本领域技术人员知道通常影响受试者获取的卵母细胞数量的因素有很多,例如BMI指数、不孕症持续时间、先前体外受精/卵胞浆内单精子注射-胚胎移植(IVF/ICSI-ET)尝试次数、血清基础E 2水平、FSH水平和LH水平、血清AMH水平、左右卵巢AFCs、不孕症的第一、第二、第三、第四和第五原因、传统或轻度卵巢刺激周期、卵巢刺激类型/COS方案、重组rFSH的起始剂量和总剂量、rFSH治疗的持续时间(天)、rFSH的名称、人绒毛膜促性腺激素(hCG)触发日的子宫内膜厚度等等,但在本申请中,本申请的发明人经过深入研究,最终确认了抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据这三个重要的参数,来确认受试者的NROs。 Those skilled in the art know that there are many factors that usually affect the number of oocytes obtained by a subject, such as BMI index, duration of infertility, previous in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection-embryo transfer (IVF/ICSI- ET) number of attempts, serum basal E 2 level, FSH level and LH level, serum AMH level, left and right ovarian AFCs, first, second, third, fourth and fifth causes of infertility, traditional or mild ovarian Stimulation cycle, ovarian stimulation type/COS regimen, starting dose and total dose of recombinant rFSH, duration of rFSH treatment (days), name of rFSH, endometrial thickness on the trigger day of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), etc. However, in this application, the inventors of this application have conducted in-depth research and finally confirmed the three data of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, and antral follicle count (AFC). An important parameter to confirm the subject’s NROs.
在本文中,对于数据采集模块没有任何限定,只要可以用于获取受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据,其中,具体来说,数据采集模块获取的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平是指女性受试者在月经期任意时间点静脉血中的抗缪勒氏管激素浓度,数据采集模块获取的所述基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平是指女性受试者月经2-4天的静脉血中的卵泡刺激素浓度,数据采集模块获取的所述窦卵泡计数 (AFC)是指阴道B超计数女性受试者月经2-4天时的两个卵巢中直径为2-10mm的所有可见卵泡的个数。基于需要预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的受试者,可以采取其上述给定期限内的数据,从而基于本申请的方法和系统来进行获卵数的预测。In this article, there are no restrictions on the data collection module, as long as it can be used to obtain the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, and antral follicle count (AFC) data, Specifically, the level of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) acquired by the data collection module refers to the concentration of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) in the venous blood of a female subject at any point in the menstrual period, which is acquired by the data collection module The basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level refers to the follicle stimulating hormone concentration in the venous blood of a female subject during menstruation for 2-4 days, and the antral follicle count (AFC) acquired by the data collection module refers to the vaginal B-ultrasound count The number of all visible follicles with a diameter of 2-10 mm in the two ovaries of female subjects during 2-4 days of menstruation. Subjects who need to predict the number of oocytes obtained in the process of ovarian stimulation can use the data within the given period mentioned above to predict the number of eggs obtained based on the method and system of the present application.
在本文中,是利用预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块对数据采集模块中的获取的上述数据进行计算,从而计算出受试者的获取的卵母细胞数量(NROs)。首先,应当理解,在该模块中预先存储有基于现有数据库中接受过标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗患者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据转换成的分类数据,以及基于所述预存的患者的分类数据和负二项分布拟合而成的用于预测受试者在接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗时,在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式。利用这样预存好的公式,可以针对任意受试者进行计算。In this article, the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation is used to calculate the above-mentioned data obtained in the data acquisition module, so as to calculate the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained by the subject. First of all, it should be understood that the anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, and sinus stimulating hormone (AMH) levels of patients who have received standard GnRH antagonist ovulation induction therapy based on the existing database are pre-stored in this module. The classification data converted from the data of follicle count (AFC), and the classification data based on the pre-stored patients and the negative binomial distribution fitting are used to predict that the subject will receive the standard GnRH antagonist regimen ovulation induction treatment , The formula for the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation. Using such pre-stored formulas, calculations can be made for any subject.
具体来说,这个预存的公式是利用预先存储有基于现有数据库中接受过标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗患者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据转换成的分类数据拟合而成的。Specifically, this pre-stored formula uses pre-stored anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) levels, and basic follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels in patients who have received standard GnRH antagonist ovulation induction therapy in the existing database. Antral follicle count (AFC) data is converted into classification data and fitted.
在计算时,这个预存的公式是利用所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的AMH水平确定的AMH的分类数据、受试者的基础FSH水平确定的FSH分类数据和受试者的AFC确定的AFC的分类数据来计算获得卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式。When calculating, this pre-stored formula is determined by the AMH classification data determined by the subject's AMH level collected by the data collection module, the FSH classification data determined by the subject's basic FSH level, and the subject's AFC. AFC classification data is used to calculate the number of oocytes (NROs) formula.
如上所述,在将连续变量转变成分类变量时,本领域技术人员会有不同的转变方式,但是本申请的发明人,通过深入研究,确认了如下的转变方式。AMH的分类数据来是将数据采集模块采集的受试者抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平分为五组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,AMH小于0.5ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为0;AMH在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为1;AMH在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为2;AMH在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为3;以及AMH在4ng/ml及以上时,AMH的分类数据为4。As mentioned above, when converting continuous variables into categorical variables, those skilled in the art will have different conversion methods, but the inventor of the present application has confirmed the following conversion methods through in-depth research. The classification data of AMH is obtained by dividing the subjects' anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into five groups and assigning different classification data as follows. When AMH is less than 0.5ng/ml, The classification data of AMH is 0; when AMH is 0.5ng/ml and above and less than 1ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 1; when AMH is 1ng/ml and above and less than 2ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 2; When AMH is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 3; and when AMH is 4ng/ml and above, the classification data of AMH is 4.
基础FSH的分类数据是将数据采集模块采集的受试者卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平分为四组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,基础FSH小于3 IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为0;基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且小于5IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为1;基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为2;基础FSH在8IU/L及以上时,基础FSH的分类数据为3。The basic FSH classification data is obtained by dividing the subjects’ follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) levels collected by the data collection module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows. When the basic FSH is less than 3 IU/L, the basic FSH When the basic FSH is 3IU/L and above and less than 5IU/L, the basic FSH classification data is 1; when the basic FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, the basic FSH classification data is 2; When the basic FSH is 8IU/L and above, the classification data of the basic FSH is 3.
AFC的分类数据是将数据采集模块采集的受试者窦卵泡计数(AFC)数据分为四组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,AFC小于4个时,AFC的分类数据为0;AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,AFC的分类数据为1;AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,AFC的分类数据为2;AFC为12个及以上时,AFC的分类数据为3。The classification data of AFC is obtained by dividing the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) data collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows. When the AFC is less than 4, the classification data of AFC is 0 ; When AFC is 4 or more and less than 8, the classification data of AFC is 1; when AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, the classification data of AFC is 2; when AFC is 12 or more, the classification of AFC The data is 3.
进一步,本申请的发明人构建了用于预测NROs的具体的公式,为如下公式一:Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH分类数据+j*基础FSH分类数据+k*AFC分类数据(公式一);Furthermore, the inventor of this application constructed a specific formula for predicting NROs, which is the following formula 1: Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH classification data+j*basic FSH classification data+k*AFC classification data (formula One);
其中n,j和k基于所述AMH、基础FSH和AFC的分类数据来确定取值;其中m选自0.7435~1.2111中的任意数值,m优选为0.9733;在进行所述计算时,预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块基于所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据进行判断,根据以下标准来确认所述n、j和k的取值;当所述受试者的AMH水平小于0.5ng/ml时,n=0;当所述受试者的AMH水平在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,n选自0.1994~0.5153中的任意数值;n优选为0.3574;当所述受试者的AMH水平在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,n选自0.5007~0.7984中的任意数值;n优选为0.6496;当所述受试者AMH水平在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,n选自0.6883~0.9896中的任意数值;n优选为0.8390;当所述受试者AMH水平在4ng/ml及以上时,n选自0.8385~1.1557中的任意数值;n优选为0.9971;当所述受试者的基础FSH小于3IU/L时,j选自0.0443~0.4112中的任意数值;j优选为0.2278;当所述受试者的基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且小于5IU/L时,j选自-0.0972~0.2526中的任意数值;j优选为0.0777;当所述受试者的基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,j选自-0.2618~0.0947中的任意数值;j优选为-0.0835;当所述受试者的AFC小于4个时,k=0;当所述受试者的AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,k选自0.1599~0.4629中的任意数值;k优选为0.3114;当所述受试者的AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,k 选自0.3553~0.6735中的任意数值;k优选为0.5144;当所述受试者的AFC为12个及以上时,k选自0.5027~0.8264中的任意数值;k优选为0.6645。Wherein n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC; wherein m is selected from any value in the range of 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733; when the calculation is performed, ovarian stimulation is predicted The module of the number of oocytes obtained in the process is based on the data of the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, and antral follicle count (AFC) collected by the data collection module Make a judgment and confirm the values of n, j and k according to the following criteria; when the subject’s AMH level is less than 0.5ng/ml, n=0; when the subject’s AMH level is 0.5 When ng/ml and above and less than 1ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.1994 to 0.5153; n is preferably 0.3574; when the subject's AMH level is 1ng/ml and above and less than 2ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.5007 to 0.7984; n is preferably 0.6496; when the subject's AMH level is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.6883 to 0.9896; n is preferably When the subject’s AMH level is 4ng/ml and above, n is selected from any value from 0.8385 to 1.1557; n is preferably 0.9971; when the subject’s basic FSH is less than 3IU/L, j is selected from any value from 0.0443 to 0.4112; j is preferably 0.2278; when the subject's basic FSH is 3IU/L and above and less than 5IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.0972 to 0.2526; j is preferably 0.0777; when the subject’s basal FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.2618 to 0.0947; j is preferably -0.0835; when the subject When the AFC of the subject is less than 4, k=0; when the AFC of the subject is 4 or more and less than 8, k is selected from any value from 0.1599 to 0.4629; k is preferably 0.3114; When the subject’s AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, k is selected from any value from 0.3553 to 0.6735; k is preferably 0.5144; when the subject’s AFC is 12 or more, k is selected from Any number from 0.5027 to 0.8264; k is preferably 0.6645.
实施例Example
实施例1选取初步用于构建模型的受试者Example 1 Selection of subjects initially used to construct a model
基于2017年1月至2017年12月之间在北京大学第三医院接受治疗的患者获取的数据,初步进行模型构建。针对用于初步进行模型构建的患者,收集该患者的基本和临床特征,包括姓氏、病历号、序列号、年龄、BMI指数、不孕症持续时间、先前体外受精/卵胞浆内单精子注射-胚胎移植(IVF/ICSI-ET)尝试次数、血清基础E 2水平、FSH水平和LH水平、血清AMH水平、左右卵巢AFCs、不孕症的第一、第二、第三、第四和第五原因、传统或轻度卵巢刺激周期、卵巢刺激类型/COS方案、重组rFSH的起始剂量和总剂量、rFSH治疗的持续时间(天)、rFSH的名称、人绒毛膜促性腺激素(hCG)触发日的子宫内膜厚度、卵母细胞取出的日期和NROs。在2017年1月至2017年12月之间总共收集了17380个患者的初步数据,并基于以下标准来选择适合用于初步模型构建的患者,确认用于构建模型的患者群体。 Based on data obtained from patients treated at Peking University Third Hospital between January 2017 and December 2017, a preliminary model construction was carried out. For the patient used for preliminary model construction, collect the basic and clinical characteristics of the patient, including surname, medical record number, serial number, age, BMI index, duration of infertility, previous in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection -Number of embryo transfer (IVF/ICSI-ET) attempts, serum basal E 2 level, FSH level and LH level, serum AMH level, left and right ovarian AFCs, first, second, third, fourth and first infertility Five reasons, traditional or mild ovarian stimulation cycle, ovarian stimulation type/COS regimen, starting and total dose of recombinant rFSH, duration of rFSH treatment (days), name of rFSH, human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) Endometrial thickness on trigger day, date of oocyte retrieval, and NROs. A total of 17,380 patients’ preliminary data were collected from January 2017 to December 2017, and patients suitable for the construction of the preliminary model were selected based on the following criteria, and the patient population for the construction of the model was confirmed.
纳入模型构建的标准为:The criteria included in model construction are:
1)年龄在20至45岁之间的女性;1) Women between 20 and 45 years old;
2)BMI≤30;2) BMI≤30;
3)先前尝试的治疗周期≤2;3) The previously tried treatment cycle ≤ 2;
4)在北京大学第三医院的内分泌实验室测试所有激素水平;4) Test all hormone levels in the endocrine laboratory of Peking University Third Hospital;
5)该患者接受标准GnRH拮抗剂卵巢刺激方案。5) The patient received a standard GnRH antagonist ovarian stimulation regimen.
将符合上述5个标准的患者的数据纳入用于构建模型的患者群体以用于后续的模型构建。The data of patients who meet the above 5 criteria are included in the patient population used to construct the model for subsequent model construction.
从模型构建群体中排除的标准是符合以下任意情况即将该患者排除:1)治疗或未治疗的卵巢囊肿;2)以前进行过卵巢手术;3)多囊卵巢综合征(PCOS)或在过去3个月内使用口服避孕;4)以前罹患过代谢或内分泌疾病;5)既往结核病;6)3个月内的妊娠史;7)既往放疗或化疗;8)接受过PGD(胚胎植入前遗传学筛查/PGS(胚胎植入前遗传学诊断技术)的夫妇。The criteria for exclusion from the model population is to exclude the patient if any of the following conditions are met: 1) Treated or untreated ovarian cysts; 2) Previous ovarian surgery; 3) Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) or 3 Use oral contraception within one month; 4) Previously suffered from metabolic or endocrine diseases; 5) Previous tuberculosis; 6) History of pregnancy within 3 months; 7) Previous radiotherapy or chemotherapy; 8) Received PGD (preimplantation inheritance) Couples who have studied screening/PGS (preimplantation genetic diagnosis technology).
基于以上排除和纳入标准,最终从17380个患者的数据中选择1523个 患者的数据用于本发明的系统模型构建。其中在1523个患者中包括539个患者是由于男性因子诱导的不育,16个患者是由于子宫内膜异位症诱导的不育,454个患者是由于输卵管因子诱导的不育,以及514个患者存在不明原因或混合或其他类型的不育。下表1列出了基本特征的中位数和四分位数以及NVI。Based on the above exclusion and inclusion criteria, the data of 1523 patients were finally selected from the data of 17,380 patients for the construction of the system model of the present invention. Among the 1523 patients, 539 patients were due to male factor-induced infertility, 16 patients were due to endometriosis-induced infertility, 454 patients were due to fallopian tube factor-induced infertility, and 514 patients The patient has unexplained or mixed or other types of infertility. Table 1 below lists the median and quartile of basic characteristics and NVI.
COS治疗COS treatment
标准的GnRH拮抗剂卵巢刺激方案如下进行:人rFSH(例如,Gonal-F alfa[Merck Serono,Germany],Puregon beta[MSD,USA],Urofollitropin[Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.,China]或Menotrophins[Livzon Pharmaceutical]Group Inc.,China])在月经周期第2天开始给药。基于年龄、AMH水平、基础FSH水平、AFC水平以及BMI等对人rFSH的起始剂量来进行选择。根据超声观察到的生长卵泡的大小和数量以及监测卵巢刺激期间的血清E 2水平进一步进行rFSH剂量的调整。当生长的卵泡直径达到10-12mm时,开始GnRH拮抗剂治疗。 The standard GnRH antagonist ovarian stimulation regimen is performed as follows: human rFSH (eg, Gonal-F alfa [Merck Serono, Germany], Puregon beta [MSD, USA], Urofollitropin [Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc., China] or Menotrophins [Livzon Pharmaceutical ] Group Inc., China]) started to do the drug on the second day of the menstrual cycle. The starting dose of human rFSH is selected based on age, AMH level, basal FSH level, AFC level, and BMI. The dose of rFSH was further adjusted according to the size and number of growing follicles observed by ultrasound and the level of serum E 2 during monitoring of ovarian stimulation. When the diameter of the growing follicle reaches 10-12mm, GnRH antagonist treatment is started.
当通过超声观察到至少两个优势卵泡直径超过18mm时,注射hCG(Choriogonadotropin alfa,Merck Serono)剂量为5000-10000IU以触发最终的卵母细胞成熟。在hCG施用后36-38小时进行卵母细胞回收。移植一至两个胚胎或进行胚胎冷冻保存。之后向患者或受试者提供黄体期孕酮支持(孕酮阴道凝胶,Merck Serono)。When the diameter of at least two dominant follicles exceeds 18mm is observed by ultrasound, the dose of hCG (Choriogonadotropin alfa, Merck Serono) is injected at 5000-10000IU to trigger the final oocyte maturation. Oocyte recovery was performed 36-38 hours after hCG administration. Transfer one or two embryos or cryopreserve embryos. Later, patients or subjects were provided with progesterone support during the luteal phase (progesterone vaginal gel, Merck Serono).
窦卵泡计数测量,取样和内分泌测定Antral follicle count measurement, sampling and endocrine determination
通过经阴道超声扫描在月经周期第2天测量两个卵巢中直径为2-10mm的卵泡,以计算AFC。在同一天,收集静脉血样以确定FSH、LH和E 2在血清中的浓度。在月经周期的任一天抽取血液用于检测AMH。将收集的血液样品立即倒置五次,然后在离心和孵育30分钟后,评估这些标记物的血清浓度。 The two ovarian follicles with a diameter of 2-10 mm were measured on the second day of the menstrual cycle by transvaginal ultrasound scanning to calculate AFC. On the same day, venous blood samples were collected to determine the concentration of FSH, LH and E 2 in the serum. Blood is drawn on any day of the menstrual cycle for AMH detection. The collected blood samples were immediately inverted five times, and then after centrifugation and incubation for 30 minutes, the serum concentrations of these markers were evaluated.
FSH、LH和E 2的血清测量均使用Siemens Immulite 2000免疫测定系统(SiemensHealthcare Diagnostics,Shanghai,PR China)进行。FSH、LH和E 2的三级质量控制由Bio-RAD实验室提供(Lyphochek Immunoassay Plus Control,Trilevel,目录号370,批号40340)。使用超灵敏ELISA(Ansh Labs, USA)试剂盒测量血清AMH浓度。质量控制的变异系数对于AMH、FSH和LH小于6%,对于E 2小于10%。 Serum measurements of FSH, LH, and E 2 were all performed using Siemens Immulite 2000 immunoassay system (Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics, Shanghai, PR China). The three-level quality control of FSH, LH and E 2 was provided by Bio-RAD Laboratories (Lyphochek Immunoassay Plus Control, Trilevel, catalog number 370, lot number 40340). The serum AMH concentration was measured using an ultra-sensitive ELISA (Ansh Labs, USA) kit. The coefficient of variation for quality control AMH, FSH and LH less than 6%, less than 10% for E 2.
表1选中的1523个患者的临床和基本特征的中位数Table 1 The median of the clinical and basic characteristics of the 1523 patients selected
 To 25%分位数25% quantile 中位数median 75%分位数75% quantile
年龄age 2929 3333 3737
BMI(kg/m2)BMI(kg/m2) 20.220.2 22twenty two 24.224.2
基础FSH(IU/L)Basic FSH (IU/L) 5.55.5 6.96.9 8.88.8
基础LH(IU/L)Basic LH (IU/L) 2.42.4 3.53.5 4.94.9
基础E 2(pmol/L) Basic E 2 (pmol/L) 134.0134.0 168.0168.0 210.0210.0
AMH(ng/ml)AMH(ng/ml) 1.11.1 2.22.2 4.04.0
AFC AFC 66 99 1313
hCG触发日子宫内膜厚度(mm)Endometrial thickness on hCG trigger day (mm) 99 1010 1212
rFSH起始剂量(IU)rFSH starting dose (IU) 150150 225225 300300
获取的卵母细胞数量(NROs)Number of oocytes obtained (NROs) 55 99 1212
实施例2模型构建因素选择Example 2 Model construction factor selection
回归模型选择Regression model selection
针对上述1523个患者的数据,首先确定获取的卵母细胞数量的分布情况。由于获取的卵母细胞数量为计数数据(count data),通常可考虑Poisson分布或负二项分布。本实施例中利用JMP Pro v.14软件分别对数据进行Poisson分布和负二项分布的拟合优度检验,结果显示如图1所示,数据偏离Poisson分布(χ 2=7026.46,P<0.001)服从负二项分布(χ 2=1660.35,P=0.77)。图1分别显示了分别利用Poisson分布和负二项分布时的拟合情况,从图1的结果可以看出利用负二项分布可以更好地拟合获取的卵母细胞数量(NROs)。由于获取的卵母细胞数量的数据服从负二项分布,因此在本实施例中以下均采用基于负二项分布的负二项回归来处理数据。 With regard to the data of the above 1523 patients, first determine the distribution of the number of oocytes obtained. Since the number of oocytes obtained is count data, Poisson distribution or negative binomial distribution can usually be considered. In this example, JMP Pro v.14 software was used to test the goodness of fit of the Poisson distribution and the negative binomial distribution. The results show that as shown in Figure 1, the data deviates from the Poisson distribution (χ 2 =7026.46, P<0.001 ) Obey the negative binomial distribution (χ 2 =1660.35, P=0.77). Figure 1 shows the fitting conditions when using Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution respectively. From the results in Figure 1, it can be seen that using negative binomial distribution can better fit the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained. Since the acquired data of the number of oocytes obeys the negative binomial distribution, in this embodiment below, the negative binomial regression based on the negative binomial distribution is used to process the data.
影响因素的分类Classification of influencing factors
考虑到如下原因,在本实施例中将检测到的连续变量分析指标转换为分 类数据,这是因为由于构建模型中的多种指标之间存在明显的相关性,会导致共线性而降低模型的预测效能,进行分类划分可以更好地显示各指标与获取的卵母细胞数量的关系;(2)分类数据在实际中更容易解释,也更容易应用。各指标的赋值情况如表2所示,并按照表2赋值情况将下表中的影响因素相应的分成4组或者5组。其中,年龄分组为四组,分别是小于30岁,此时年龄的分类数据为0;30岁以上且小于35岁,此时年龄的分类数据为1;35岁以上且小于40岁,此时年龄的分类数据为2;40岁以上,此时年龄的分类数据为3。BMI指数分成四组,分别是小于18.5,此时BMI的分类数据为0;18.5以上且小于24,此时BMI的分类数据为1;24以上且小于27,此时BMI的分类数据为2;以及27以上,此时BMI的分类数据为3。AMH分为5组,分别是AMH小于0.5ng/ml,此时AMH的分类数据为0;AMH在0.5以上且小于1ng/ml,此时AMH的分类数据为1;AMH在1以上且小于2ng/ml,此时AMH的分类数据为2;AMH在2以上且小于4ng/ml,此时AMH的分类数据为3;以及AMH在4ng/ml以上,此时AMH的分类数据为4。AFC分为4组,分别是AFC小于4个,此时AFC的分类数据为0;AFC为4个以上且小于8个,此时AFC的分类数据为1;AFC为8个以上且小于12个,此时AFC的分类数据为2;AFC为12个以上,此时AFC的分类数据为3。基础FSH水平分为4组,分别是基础FSH小于3IU/L,此时基础FSH的分类数据为0;基础FSH在3IU/L以上且小于5IU/L,此时基础FSH的分类数据为1;基础FSH在5IU/L以上且小于8IU/L,此时基础FSH的分类数据为2;基础FSH在8IU/L以上,此时基础FSH的分类数据为3。基础LH水平分为4组,分别是基础LH水平小于2IU/L,此时基础LH水平的分类数据为0;基础LH在2IU/L以上且小于5IU/L,此时基础LH水平的分类数据为1;基础LH水平在5IU/L以上且小于8IU/L,此时基础LH水平的分类数据为2;以及基础LH水平在8IU/L以上,此时基础LH水平的分类数据为3。基础E 2水平分为4组,分别是基础E 2水平小于150pmol/L,此时基础E 2水平的分类数据为0;基础E 2水平在150以上且小于200pmol/L,此时基础E 2水平的分类数据为1;基础E 2水平在200以上且小于250pmol/L,此时基础E 2水平的分类数据为2;基础E 2水平在250pmol/L以上,此时基础E 2水平的分类数据为3。rFSH起始剂量分为4组,分别是rFSH起始剂量小于150IU,此时rFSH起始剂量的分类数据为0;rFSH起始剂量在150IU 以上且小于250IU,此时rFSH起始剂量的分类数据为1;rFSH起始剂量在250IU以上且小于300IU,此时rFSH起始剂量的分类数据为2;以及rFSH起始剂量在300IU以上,此时rFSH起始剂量的分类数据为3。 Considering the following reasons, in this embodiment, the detected continuous variable analysis indicators are converted into categorical data. This is because there is obvious correlation between the various indicators in the construction model, which will lead to collinearity and reduce the model’s performance. Predictive performance, classification and division can better show the relationship between each index and the number of oocytes obtained; (2) The classification data is easier to interpret in practice and easier to apply. The assignment of each index is shown in Table 2, and the influencing factors in the following table are divided into 4 or 5 groups according to the assignment of Table 2. Among them, the age group is divided into four groups, namely less than 30 years old, at this time the classification data for age is 0; 30 years old and less than 35 years old, at this time the classification data for age is 1; 35 years old and less than 40 years old, at this time The categorical data for age is 2; over 40 years old, the categorical data for age at this time is 3. The BMI index is divided into four groups, which are less than 18.5, and the classification data of BMI is 0 at this time; 18.5 and less than 24, the classification data of BMI is 1 at this time; more than 24 and less than 27, the classification data of BMI is 2 at this time; And above 27, the classification data of BMI is 3. AMH is divided into 5 groups, respectively, AMH is less than 0.5ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 0 at this time; AMH is above 0.5 and less than 1ng/ml, and the classification data of AMH is 1 at this time; AMH is more than 1 and less than 2ng /ml, the classification data of AMH is 2 at this time; when AMH is above 2 and less than 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 3 at this time; and when AMH is above 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 4. AFC is divided into 4 groups, respectively, AFC is less than 4, at this time the classification data of AFC is 0; AFC is more than 4 and less than 8, at this time, the classification data of AFC is 1; AFC is more than 8 and less than 12 , The classification data of AFC is 2 at this time; AFC is more than 12, and the classification data of AFC is 3. The basic FSH level is divided into 4 groups, respectively, the basic FSH is less than 3IU/L, and the classification data of the basic FSH is 0; the basic FSH is above 3IU/L and less than 5IU/L, and the classification data of the basic FSH is 1 at this time; When the basic FSH is above 5IU/L and less than 8IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 2; when the basic FSH is above 8IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 3. The basic LH level is divided into 4 groups, respectively, the basic LH level is less than 2IU/L, the classification data of the basic LH level at this time is 0; the basic LH is above 2IU/L and less than 5IU/L, the classification data of the basic LH level at this time When the basic LH level is above 5IU/L and less than 8IU/L, the classification data for the basic LH level is 2; and when the basic LH level is above 8IU/L, the classification data for the basic LH level is 3. E 2 were divided into 4 basic groups, which are the basis of E 2 level is less than 150pmol / L, E 2 level at this time based classification data is 0; E 2 level 150 based more and less than 200pmol / L, E 2 case basis data classification level 1; E 2 levels in the base 200 and less than 250pmol / L, E 2 level at this time based classification data is 2; E 2 levels based 250pmol / L or more, this time based classification level E 2 The data is 3. The starting dose of rFSH is divided into 4 groups, respectively, the starting dose of rFSH is less than 150IU, the classification data of the starting dose of rFSH is 0; the starting dose of rFSH is above 150IU and less than 250IU, the classification data of the starting dose of rFSH at this time If the starting dose of rFSH is above 250IU and less than 300IU, the classification data of the starting dose of rFSH is 2; and the starting dose of rFSH is above 300IU, and the classification data of the starting dose of rFSH is 3.
表2各指标赋值Table 2 Assignment of indicators
Figure PCTCN2020087232-appb-000001
Figure PCTCN2020087232-appb-000001
单因素分析Univariate analysis
使用软件JMP Pro v.14,应用负二项回归,分析单一因素对结局变量(获卵数,即NROs)的影响。可以看出,在单因素分析中,年龄、AMH、FSH、rFSH、AFC、BMI、LH、不孕因素均有统计学意义。基础E 2水平则无统计学意义,且其RR值均十分接近1,因此在后续分析中,首先将基础E 2水平从模型构建中剔除。 Using the software JMP Pro v.14, applying negative binomial regression, analyze the influence of a single factor on the outcome variable (the number of eggs obtained, or NROs). It can be seen that in the univariate analysis, age, AMH, FSH, rFSH, AFC, BMI, LH, and infertility factors are all statistically significant. The basic E 2 level is not statistically significant, and its RR values are very close to 1. Therefore, in the subsequent analysis, the basic E 2 level is first excluded from the model construction.
表3单因素分析结果Table 3 Results of single factor analysis
Figure PCTCN2020087232-appb-000002
Figure PCTCN2020087232-appb-000002
Figure PCTCN2020087232-appb-000003
Figure PCTCN2020087232-appb-000003
实施例3构建预测模型Example 3 Building a prediction model
如上所述,选择负二项回归来构建统计模型,预测指标的选择采用修剪的前进法和holdback验证,利用软件JMP Pro v.14,建立预测模型,将上述1523个患者组成的数据集随机分为两部分,一部分作为训练集(1066个数据,70%),另一部分作为验证集(457个数据,30%)。As mentioned above, negative binomial regression is selected to construct the statistical model, the selection of predictive indicators adopts the pruning forward method and holdback verification, and the software JMP Pro v.14 is used to establish a predictive model, and the data set composed of the above 1523 patients is randomly divided There are two parts, one part is used as the training set (1066 data, 70%), and the other part is used as the validation set (457 data, 30%).
首先,在训练集中构建建模,并在验证集中验证模型效果。预测模型的选择主要根据验证集中的负对数似然值,验证集中的负对数似然值越低,提示模型越优。First, build a model in the training set, and verify the effect of the model in the verification set. The choice of prediction model is mainly based on the negative log likelihood in the validation set. The lower the negative log likelihood in the validation set, the better the model.
图2显示了修剪的前进法的变量筛选过程,具体来说,除了剔除的E 2之外,其余上述单因素均纳入多因素负二项回归模型,经过修剪的前进法以及holdback验证,得到图2的模型,从图2中可以看出,在第三步的时候,此时验证集中的负对数似然值最低,因此以此时的模型作为最优模型。此时模型中包含的变量为AMH、FSH、AFC三个变量。此时该预测模型中各变量的参数估计结果如表4所示,表4中进一步显示了各参数的95%置信区间。 Figure 2 shows the variable selection process of the pruned forward method. Specifically, except for the excluded E 2 , the other single factors are included in the multi-factor negative binomial regression model. After the pruned forward method and holdback verification, the figure is obtained The model of 2 can be seen from Figure 2. In the third step, the negative log likelihood value in the verification set is the lowest at this time, so the model at this time is taken as the optimal model. At this time, the variables included in the model are AMH, FSH, and AFC. At this time, the parameter estimation results of each variable in the prediction model are shown in Table 4, and Table 4 further shows the 95% confidence interval of each parameter.
表4预测模型的参数估计结果Table 4 Parameter estimation results of the prediction model
Figure PCTCN2020087232-appb-000004
Figure PCTCN2020087232-appb-000004
基于上述方法,在本实施例中确认了如下公式一。Based on the above method, the following formula 1 is confirmed in this embodiment.
Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH分类数据+j*基础FSH分类数据+k*AFC分类数据(公式一)Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH classification data+j*basic FSH classification data+k*AFC classification data (formula 1)
其中n,j和k基于所述AMH、基础FSH和AFC的分类数据来确定取值;其中m选自0.7435~1.2111中的任意数值,m优选为0.9733;Wherein n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC; wherein m is selected from any value in the range of 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733;
在进行所述计算时,预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块基于所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据进行判断,根据以下标准来确认所述n、j和k的取值;When performing the calculation, the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation is based on the subject’s anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) collected by the data collection module Level, antral follicle count (AFC) data are judged, and the values of n, j and k are confirmed according to the following criteria;
当所述受试者的AMH水平小于0.5ng/ml时,n=0;When the subject's AMH level is less than 0.5ng/ml, n=0;
当所述受试者的AMH水平在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,n选自0.1994~0.5153中的任意数值;n优选为0.3574;When the subject's AMH level is 0.5 ng/ml and above and less than 1 ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.1994 to 0.5153; n is preferably 0.3574;
当所述受试者的AMH水平在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,n选自0.5007~0.7984中的任意数值;n优选为0.6496;When the subject's AMH level is 1 ng/ml and above and less than 2 ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.5007 to 0.7984; n is preferably 0.6496;
当所述受试者AMH水平在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,n选自0.6883~0.9896中的任意数值;n优选为0.8390;When the subject's AMH level is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, n is selected from any value in the range of 0.6883 to 0.9896; n is preferably 0.8390;
当所述受试者AMH水平在4ng/ml及以上时,n选自0.8385~1.1557中的任意数值;n优选为0.9971;When the subject's AMH level is 4ng/ml and above, n is selected from any value from 0.8385 to 1.1557; n is preferably 0.9971;
当所述受试者的基础FSH小于3IU/L时,j选自0.0443~0.4112中的任意数值;j优选为0.2278;When the subject’s basal FSH is less than 3IU/L, j is selected from any value from 0.0443 to 0.4112; j is preferably 0.2278;
当所述受试者的基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且When the subject's basic FSH is 3IU/L and above and
小于5IU/L时,j选自-0.0972~0.2526中的任意数值;j优选为0.0777;When it is less than 5IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.0972 to 0.2526; j is preferably 0.0777;
当所述受试者的基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,j选自-0.2618~0.0947中的任意数值;j优选为-0.0835;When the subject's basal FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.2618 to 0.0947; j is preferably -0.0835;
当所述受试者的AFC小于4个时,k=0;When the subject's AFC is less than 4, k=0;
当所述受试者的AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,k选自0.1599~0.4629中的任意数值;k优选为0.3114;When the AFC of the subject is 4 or more and less than 8, k is selected from any value from 0.1599 to 0.4629; k is preferably 0.3114;
当所述受试者的AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,k选自0.3553~0.6735中的任意数值;k优选为0.5144;When the subject's AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, k is selected from any value in the range of 0.3553 to 0.6735; k is preferably 0.5144;
当所述受试者的AFC为12个及以上时,k选自0.5027~0.8264中的任意数值;k优选为0.6645。When the AFC of the subject is 12 or more, k is selected from any value in the range of 0.5027 to 0.8264; k is preferably 0.6645.
利用上述方法针对训练集和验证集构建的模型的预测效果如图3所示。图3中,横坐标显示利用模型预测的NROs,即预测的该受试者进行标准拮抗剂方案促排卵,其获得的卵母细胞数量,纵坐标显示该受试者的实际检测到的获取的卵母细胞数量,可见如图3所示,上述构建的模型在训练集和验证集中均获得良好的预测效果,预测的数据与实际检测的数吻合度高。进一步,训练集和验证集的残差分布如图4所示,可以看出,残差均呈正态分布。可见本实施例构建的系统可以用于对受试者的获取的卵母数量进行良好的预测。The prediction effect of the model built with the above method for the training set and the verification set is shown in Figure 3. In Figure 3, the abscissa shows the NROs predicted by the model, that is, the predicted number of oocytes obtained by the subject under the standard antagonist regimen, and the ordinate shows the actual detected acquisition of the subject The number of oocytes can be seen as shown in Figure 3. The model constructed above has achieved good prediction effects in both the training set and the verification set, and the predicted data is in good agreement with the actual detected number. Furthermore, the residual distributions of the training set and the validation set are shown in Figure 4. It can be seen that the residuals are normally distributed. It can be seen that the system constructed in this embodiment can be used to make a good prediction of the number of oocytes obtained by the subject.
尽管以上结合附图对本发明的实施方案进行了描述,但本发明并不局限于上述的具体实施方案和应用领域,上述的具体实施方案仅仅是示意性的、指导性的,而不是限制性的。本领域的普通技术人员在本说明书的启示下和在不脱离本发明权利要求所保护的范围的情况下,还可以做出很多种的形式,这些均属于本发明保护之列。Although the embodiments of the present invention are described above with reference to the accompanying drawings, the present invention is not limited to the above specific embodiments and application fields. The above specific embodiments are only illustrative, instructive, and not restrictive. . Under the enlightenment of this specification and without departing from the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art can also make many forms, which all belong to the protection of the present invention.

Claims (9)

  1. 一种用于预测受试者卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的系统,其包括:A system for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation of a subject, which includes:
    数据采集模块,其用于获取受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据;以及A data collection module, which is used to obtain data of the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level, and antral follicle count (AFC); and
    预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块,其用于对数据采集模块中的获取的上述数据进行计算,从而计算出受试者的获取的卵母细胞数量(NROs)。A module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, which is used to calculate the above-mentioned data obtained in the data collection module, so as to calculate the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained by the subject.
  2. 根据权利要求1所述的系统,其中,The system of claim 1, wherein:
    所述受试者是将要接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗的受试者。The subject is a subject who will receive a standard GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction therapy.
  3. 根据权利要求1或2所述的系统,其中,The system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein:
    在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块中,预先存储有基于现有数据库中接受过标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗患者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据转换成的分类数据,以及基于所述预存的患者的分类数据和负二项分布拟合而成的用于预测受试者在接受标准GnRH拮抗剂方案促排卵治疗时,在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式。In the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, the anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basic follicle stimulation are stored in advance based on the existing database of patients who have received standard GnRH antagonist ovulation therapy. Categorical data converted from the data of FSH (FSH) level and antral follicle count (AFC), and based on the pre-stored patient’s categorical data and the negative binomial distribution fitting to predict the subject’s acceptance of the standard GnRH The formula of the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation during ovulation induction therapy with antagonist regimen.
  4. 根据权利要求1~3中任一项所述的系统,其中,The system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein:
    在数据采集模块中,收集的所述抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平是指女性受试者在月经期任意时间点静脉血中的抗缪勒氏管激素浓度,所述基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平是指女性受试者月经2-4天的静脉血中的卵泡刺激素浓度,所述窦卵泡计数(AFC)是指阴道B超计数女性受试者月经2-4天时的两个卵巢中直径为2-10mm的所有可见卵泡的个数。In the data collection module, the collected anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level refers to the anti-Mullerian hormone concentration in the venous blood of a female subject at any point in the menstrual period. The basic follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level refers to the concentration of follicle stimulating hormone in the venous blood of female subjects during menstruation for 2-4 days, and the antral follicle count (AFC) refers to the vaginal B-ultrasound count of female subjects during menstruation for two The number of all visible follicles with a diameter of 2-10mm in each ovary.
  5. 根据权利要求4所述的系统,其中,The system of claim 4, wherein:
    在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平转换而成的AMH的分类数据来进行计算,In the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation, when calculating with the formula, the AMH level converted from the subject's anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level collected by the data collection module Categorize data for calculations,
    AMH的分类数据来是将数据采集模块采集的受试者抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平分为五组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The classification data of AMH is obtained by dividing the subjects' anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into five groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
    AMH小于0.5ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为0;When AMH is less than 0.5ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 0;
    AMH在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为1;When AMH is 0.5ng/ml and above and less than 1ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 1;
    AMH在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为2;When AMH is 1ng/ml and above and less than 2ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 2;
    AMH在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,AMH的分类数据为3;以及When AMH is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, the classification data of AMH is 3; and
    AMH在4ng/ml及以上时,AMH的分类数据为4。When AMH is 4ng/ml and above, the classification data of AMH is 4.
  6. 根据权利要求4所述的系统,其中,The system of claim 4, wherein:
    在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平转换而成的基础FSH的分类数据来进行计算,In the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained in the process of ovarian stimulation, the basic FSH classification converted from the subject's basic follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level collected by the data acquisition module when calculating with the formula Data to calculate,
    基础FSH的分类数据是将数据采集模块采集的受试者卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平分为四组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The basic FSH classification data is obtained by dividing the subjects’ Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) levels collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
    基础FSH小于3IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为0;When the basic FSH is less than 3IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 0;
    基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且小于5IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为1;When the basic FSH is 3IU/L and above and less than 5IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 1;
    基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,基础FSH的分类数据为2;When the basic FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, the classification data of the basic FSH is 2;
    基础FSH在8IU/L及以上时,基础FSH的分类数据为3。When the basic FSH is 8IU/L and above, the classification data of the basic FSH is 3.
  7. 根据权利要求4所述的系统,其中,The system of claim 4, wherein:
    在预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块中,在利用所述公式进行计算时,利用数据采集模块采集的受试者窦卵泡计数(AFC)转换的AFC的分类数据来进行计算,In the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained in the process of ovarian stimulation, when calculating with the formula, the classification data of AFC converted from the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) collected by the data acquisition module is used for calculation,
    AFC的分类数据是将数据采集模块采集的受试者窦卵泡计数(AFC)数据分为四组,并如下分别赋予不同的分类数据而得到的,The classification data of AFC is obtained by dividing the subject's antral follicle count (AFC) data collected by the data acquisition module into four groups and assigning different classification data as follows:
    AFC小于4个时,AFC的分类数据为0;When AFC is less than 4, the classification data of AFC is 0;
    AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,AFC的分类数据为1;When AFC is 4 or more and less than 8, the classification data of AFC is 1;
    AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,AFC的分类数据为2;When AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, the classification data of AFC is 2;
    AFC为12个及以上时,AFC的分类数据为3。When AFC is 12 or more, the classification data of AFC is 3.
  8. 根据权利要求3~7中任一项所述的系统,其中,The system according to any one of claims 3-7, wherein:
    所述用于计算在卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式是利用所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的AMH水平确定的AMH的分类数据、受试者的基础FSH水平确定的FSH分类数据和受试者的AFC确定的AFC的分类数据来计算获得卵母细胞数量(NROs)的公式。The formula used to calculate the number of oocytes (NROs) obtained during ovarian stimulation is the AMH classification data determined by the subject's AMH level collected by the data collection module, and the subject's basic FSH level The determined FSH classification data and the subject's AFC determined AFC classification data are calculated to obtain the formula for the number of oocytes (NROs).
  9. 根据权利要求8所述的系统,其中,The system according to claim 8, wherein:
    所述公式为如下公式一:The formula is the following formula one:
    Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH分类数据+j*基础FSH分类数据+k*AFC分类数据(公式一);Log(NROs)=m+n*AMH classification data+j*basic FSH classification data+k*AFC classification data (formula 1);
    其中n,j和k基于所述AMH、基础FSH和AFC的分类数据来确定取值;Wherein n, j and k are determined based on the classification data of the AMH, basic FSH and AFC;
    其中m选自0.7435~1.2111中的任意数值,m优选为0.9733;Wherein m is selected from any value from 0.7435 to 1.2111, and m is preferably 0.9733;
    在进行所述计算时,预测卵巢刺激过程中获得的卵母细胞数量的模块基于所述数据采集模块采集的受试者的抗缪勒氏管激素(AMH)水平、基础卵泡刺激素(FSH)水平、窦卵泡计数(AFC)的数据进行判断,根据以下标准来确认所述n、j和k的取值;When performing the calculation, the module for predicting the number of oocytes obtained during ovarian stimulation is based on the subject’s anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) collected by the data collection module Level, antral follicle count (AFC) data are judged, and the values of n, j and k are confirmed according to the following criteria;
    当所述受试者的AMH水平小于0.5ng/ml时,n=0;When the subject's AMH level is less than 0.5ng/ml, n=0;
    当所述受试者的AMH水平在0.5ng/ml及以上且小于1ng/ml时,n选自0.1994~0.5153中的任意数值;n优选为0.3574;When the subject's AMH level is 0.5 ng/ml and above and less than 1 ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.1994 to 0.5153; n is preferably 0.3574;
    当所述受试者的AMH水平在1ng/ml及以上且小于2ng/ml时,n选自0.5007~0.7984中的任意数值;n优选为0.6496;When the subject's AMH level is 1 ng/ml and above and less than 2 ng/ml, n is selected from any value from 0.5007 to 0.7984; n is preferably 0.6496;
    当所述受试者AMH水平在2ng/ml及以上且小于4ng/ml时,n选自0.6883~0.9896中的任意数值;n优选为0.8390;When the subject's AMH level is 2ng/ml and above and less than 4ng/ml, n is selected from any value in the range of 0.6883 to 0.9896; n is preferably 0.8390;
    当所述受试者AMH水平在4ng/ml及以上时,n选自0.8385~1.1557中的任意数值;n优选为0.9971;When the subject's AMH level is 4ng/ml and above, n is selected from any value from 0.8385 to 1.1557; n is preferably 0.9971;
    当所述受试者的基础FSH小于3IU/L时,j选自0.0443~0.4112中的任意数值;j优选为0.2278;When the subject’s basal FSH is less than 3IU/L, j is selected from any value from 0.0443 to 0.4112; j is preferably 0.2278;
    当所述受试者的基础FSH在3IU/L及以上且小于5IU/L时,j选自-0.0972~0.2526中的任意数值;j优选为0.0777;When the subject's basal FSH is 3IU/L and above and less than 5IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.0972 to 0.2526; j is preferably 0.0777;
    当所述受试者的基础FSH在5IU/L及以上且小于8IU/L时,j选自-0.2618~0.0947中的任意数值;j优选为-0.0835;When the subject's basal FSH is 5IU/L and above and less than 8IU/L, j is selected from any value from -0.2618 to 0.0947; j is preferably -0.0835;
    当所述受试者的AFC小于4个时,k=0;When the subject's AFC is less than 4, k=0;
    当所述受试者的AFC为4个及以上且小于8个时,k选自0.1599~0.4629中的任意数值;k优选为0.3114;When the AFC of the subject is 4 or more and less than 8, k is selected from any value from 0.1599 to 0.4629; k is preferably 0.3114;
    当所述受试者的AFC为8个及以上且小于12个时,k选自0.3553~0.6735中的任意数值;k优选为0.5144;When the subject's AFC is 8 or more and less than 12, k is selected from any value in the range of 0.3553 to 0.6735; k is preferably 0.5144;
    当所述受试者的AFC为12个及以上时,k选自0.5027~0.8264中的任意 数值;k优选为0.6645。When the AFC of the subject is 12 or more, k is selected from any value from 0.5027 to 0.8264; k is preferably 0.6645.
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