WO2020135587A1

WO2020135587A1 - Risk assessment index set construction method and apparatus

Info

Publication number: WO2020135587A1
Application number: PCT/CN2019/128709
Authority: WO
Inventors: 陈涛; 苏国锋; 孙雪萍; 陈建国; 袁宏永; 黄全义; 孙占辉
Original assignee: 清华大学; 北京辰安科技股份有限公司
Priority date: 2018-12-29
Filing date: 2019-12-26
Publication date: 2020-07-02
Also published as: CN109766516A

Abstract

Provided are a risk assessment index set construction method and apparatus. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a plurality of risk factors for risk assessment, and generating an adjacent matrix between the risk factors (S101); obtaining a reachable matrix according to the adjacent matrix so as to construct a hierarchical relationship between elements (S102); and acquiring an index set structure diagram according to the hierarchical relationship between the elements (S103). According to the method, the hierarchical relationship between factors is quantitatively characterized through matrix operations, and the construction of a risk assessment index set is realized, so that the scientificity and rationality of the construction of the risk assessment index set are optimized, and a basis is provided for the specificity and pertinence of risk prevention and control, and the method thereof is simple and easily implemented.

Description

Method and device for constructing risk assessment index set

Cross-reference of related applications

This application requires the priority of the Chinese patent application number "201811645641.7" submitted by Tsinghua University and Beijing Chenan Technology Co., Ltd. on December 29, 2018, with the name of the invention as "risk assessment indicator set construction method and device".

Technical field

The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a method and device for constructing a risk assessment indicator set.

Background technique

In the field of risk assessment, there are two main methods for constructing the index set structure, one is determined by expert experience, and the other is a statistical method represented by cluster analysis.

However, only through a single expert experience method, that is, based on expert experience or accident case analysis, which evaluation index is selected, the hierarchical relationship between each index factor determines that there is a strong subjectivity, and a quantitative reasoning process is lacking , Which makes the risk assessment lack of quantitative characterization; and the statistical methods have higher requirements on the index data, and in actual calculations, there are often certain restrictions.

Summary of the invention

The present invention aims to solve one of the technical problems in the related art at least to a certain extent.

Therefore, an object of the present invention is to propose a method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set, which can optimize the scientificity and rationality of the risk assessment indicator set construction, provide a basis for the specificity and pertinence of risk prevention, and is simple and easy to implement .

Another object of the present invention is to propose a device for constructing a risk assessment indicator set.

To achieve the above objective, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set, which includes the following steps: acquiring multiple risk factors for risk assessment and generating an adjacency matrix between each risk factor; The adjacency matrix obtains a reachable matrix to construct a hierarchical relationship between elements; an index set structure diagram is obtained according to the hierarchical relationship between elements.

The method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to an embodiment of the present invention realizes the quantitative characterization of the hierarchical relationship between various factors through matrix operations, and realizes the construction of a risk assessment indicator set, thereby optimizing the scientificity and rationality of the risk assessment indicator set construction. The basis for the specificity and pertinence of risk prevention is simple and easy to implement.

In addition, the method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to the above embodiments of the present invention may also have the following additional technical features:

Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the relational expression of the adjacency matrix is:

A=(a _ij ) _n×n ,

Among them, a _ij = 1, indicating that there is a direct relationship between factor i and factor j; a _ij = 0, indicating that there is no direct relationship between factor i and factor j; n is a positive integer.

Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the hierarchical relationship between the building elements includes: obtaining the reachable set and the prior set for each risk factor according to the reachable matrix; and according to the reachable set and The element set is obtained in advance to obtain the hierarchical relationship between the elements.

Further, in one embodiment of the present invention, in the element set, the elements in the element set are allowed to reach from other elements, and the elements in the element set are not allowed to reach the other elements.

Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the obtaining the index set structure diagram according to the hierarchical relationship between the elements further includes: placing the element set from top to bottom according to the level order, and using directed arrows or line segments Represents the relationship between the elements of adjacent levels and the relationship between the elements of the same level to build a hierarchical structure diagram of each element in the index set, where,

In the process of constructing the indicator set, if there is an interaction relationship between the elements, a judgment is made through manual or quantitative evaluation to eliminate the interaction relationship.

In order to achieve the above object, another embodiment of the present invention provides a risk assessment indicator set construction apparatus, including: a first acquisition module, configured to acquire multiple risk factors for risk assessment, and generate a risk factor between each risk factor Adjacency matrix; a building module for obtaining a reachable matrix according to the adjacency matrix to construct a hierarchical relationship between elements; a second acquisition module for acquiring an index set structure diagram according to the hierarchical relationship between the elements.

The risk assessment indicator set construction device of the embodiment of the present invention realizes the quantitative characterization of the hierarchical relationship between various factors through matrix operations, and realizes the construction of the risk assessment indicator set, thereby optimizing the scientificity and rationality of the construction of the risk assessment indicator set, The basis for the specificity and pertinence of risk prevention is simple and easy to implement.

In addition, the risk assessment indicator set construction device according to the above embodiments of the present invention may also have the following additional technical features:

A=(a _ij ) _n×n ,

Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the construction module is further configured to obtain the reachable set and the prior set for each risk factor according to the reachable matrix, and according to the reachable set and the prior set Get a set of elements to get the hierarchical relationship between the elements.

Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the second acquisition module is further configured to place the element set from top to bottom according to the level order, and use directed arrows or line segments to represent the relationship between adjacent level elements and The relationship between the elements in the same level to build a hierarchy diagram of each element in the indicator set, where,

Additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will be partially given in the following description, and some will become apparent from the following description, or be learned through the practice of the present invention.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION

The above and/or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and easy to understand from the following description of the embodiments in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, in which:

1 is a flowchart of a method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to an embodiment of the present invention;

2 is a schematic structural diagram of a risk assessment indicator set construction device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

detailed description

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail. Examples of the embodiments are shown in the drawings, in which the same or similar reference numerals indicate the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions. The embodiments described below with reference to the drawings are exemplary and are intended to explain the present invention, and should not be construed as limiting the present invention.

The following describes a method and apparatus for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to an embodiment of the present invention with reference to the drawings. First, a method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown in Figure 1, the construction method of the risk assessment indicator set includes the following steps:

In step S101, multiple risk factors for risk assessment are obtained, and an adjacency matrix between each risk factor is generated.

It is understandable that the embodiments of the present invention determine the main factors for risk assessment by using the characteristics of the risk assessment, specific accident cases, expert consultation and other methods. Among them, the risk factor is the main factor, which requires subjective screening. Construct the adjacency matrix between the factors.

A=(a _ij ) _n×n ,

Specifically, the adjacency matrix A represents the relationship between each factor used for risk assessment, and the expression is:

A=(a _ij ) _n×n ,

Among them, if a _ij =1, it means that there is a direct relationship between the factor i and the factor j; from the perspective of reachability, it can be expressed that the factor i can directly reach j through a path with a step size of 1.

If a _ij = 0, it means that there is no direct relationship between factor i and factor j; from the perspective of reachability, it can be expressed as that factor i can go through a path with a step size of 1, and cannot directly reach j.

In step S102, a reachable matrix is obtained according to the adjacency matrix to construct a hierarchical relationship between elements.

It can be understood that, in this embodiment of the present invention, a reachability matrix is constructed based on the adjacency matrix obtained above, and then a hierarchical relationship between elements is constructed according to the reachability matrix.

The construction of the reachability matrix and the construction of the hierarchical relationship between elements will be described in detail in conjunction with the embodiments below.

Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, constructing a hierarchical relationship between elements includes: obtaining an reachable set and an advance set for each risk factor according to an reachability matrix; obtaining an element set according to the reachable set and the advance set to obtain Hierarchical relationship between elements.

In one embodiment of the present invention, in the element set, the elements in the element set are allowed to reach from other elements, and the elements in the element set are not allowed to reach other elements.

Specifically, (1) construct the reachable matrix R

After obtaining the adjacency matrix A, then find the sum A+I of A and the identity matrix I to do the power operation of the matrix A+I, and follow the Boolean algebraic operation rules during the operation until the following formula holds:

R≠(A+I)≠(A+I) ² ≠…=(A+I) ⁿ =(A+I) ⁿ⁺¹ ,

R=(r _ij ) _n×? ,

The matrix R is the reachable matrix.

If r _ij is 1, it means that there is a reachable path from element a _i to element a _j , that is, there is a direct or indirect relationship between element a _i and a _j , which can be classified into the same system unit.

If r _ij is 0, it means that there is no reachable path from element a _i to element a _j , that is, there is no direct or indirect relationship between element a _i and a _j , and it cannot be classified into the same system unit.

(2) Construction of hierarchical relationship between elements

Using the reachable matrix R, find the following set of each element a _i :

P(a _i ) = {a _j | r _ij = 1},

Q(a _i )={a _j |r _ji =1},

Among them, P(a _i ) is called the reachable set, that is, the set of all elements that can be reached from the element a _i , that is, the set of elements affected by the a _i factor, you can find the upper value of the i-th row of the reachable matrix R Find the element corresponding to the 1 column. Q(a _i ) is called an advance set, that is, a set of all elements that can reach element a _i . It can be obtained by searching for the element corresponding to the row with a value of 1 on the i-th column of the reachable matrix R.

Based on P(a _i ) and Q(a _i ) (i=1, 2,..., N), find each element set L _{1 that} satisfies the following requirements.

The element in L ₁ has the following characteristics: the element can be reached from other elements, but cannot be reached from the element, that is, the element in L ₁ is the element at the highest level (first level). Then, delete the rows and columns corresponding to the elements in L ₁ from the original reachable matrix M to obtain the matrix M′, and perform the same operation on M′ to determine the elements belonging to the second level L ₂ . Repeat the same operation in the future to find L ₃ , L ₄ , ... in order to assign each element to the corresponding level.

In step S103, an index set structure diagram is obtained according to the hierarchical relationship between elements.

In an embodiment of the present invention, obtaining the index set structure diagram according to the hierarchical relationship between the elements further includes: placing the element set from top to bottom according to the level order, and using directed arrows or line segments to represent the relationship between adjacent level elements and The relationship between the elements in the same level to build a hierarchical structure diagram of each element in the index set. In the process of building the index set, if there is a mutual influence between the elements, it is carried out through manual or quantitative evaluation. Judgment to eliminate the interaction of mutual influence.

It can be understood that after the hierarchical relationship between the elements is constructed, the elements of the first level L ₁ are placed on the uppermost layer, and the elements of the second level L ₂ are below, and so on, and the elements are placed in order from top to bottom. And use directed arrows/line segments to represent the relationship between the elements of adjacent levels and the relationship between the elements of the same level, and then complete the construction of the hierarchical structure of each element in the index set. In addition, during the construction of the indicator set, if there is a mutually influential relationship between each other, the embodiments of the present invention can again use expert panels or other feasible quantitative evaluation methods to make judgments to eliminate this interaction relationship. Ensure the independence of evaluation indicators.

In summary, when the indicator system method is used for risk assessment in the embodiment of the present invention, the index set structure is constructed based on the explanatory structure model, which can quantify and clarify the hierarchical relationship between the index factors, which is reasonable and scientific for risk assessment and risk prevention. Provide specific basis and pertinence to effectively solve the problem of semi-quantitative index set construction when using the index system method for risk assessment. Among them, the explanation structure model is a qualitative and quantitative method to clearly evaluate the structural relationship between index factors. The index factors used to participate in the matrix calculation and the pairwise relationship between each index are determined by expert experience. After matrix operations, the accessibility between factors can be used to quantify the hierarchical structure of the index set.

According to the construction method of the risk assessment indicator set proposed in the embodiment of the present invention, the matrix operation is used to quantitatively characterize the hierarchical relationship between the various factors and the construction of the risk assessment indicator set, thereby optimizing the scientificity and rationality of the construction of the risk assessment indicator set To provide a basis for the specificity and pertinence of risk prevention and control, which is simple and easy to implement.

Next, a device for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

2 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown in FIG. 2, the risk assessment indicator set construction device 10 includes: a first acquisition module 100, a construction module 200 and a second acquisition module 300.

Among them, the first obtaining module 100 is used to obtain multiple risk factors for risk assessment and generate an adjacency matrix between each risk factor. The construction module 200 is used to obtain a reachable matrix according to the adjacency matrix to construct a hierarchical relationship between elements. The second obtaining module 300 is used to obtain the index set structure diagram according to the hierarchical relationship between the elements. The device 10 of the embodiment of the present invention optimizes the scientificity and rationality of the construction of the risk assessment index set, provides a basis for the specificity and pertinence of risk prevention, and is simple and easy to implement.

A=(a _ij ) _n×n ,

Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the construction module 200 is further configured to obtain the reachable set and the prior set for each risk factor according to the reachable matrix, and obtain the element set according to the reachable set and the advance set to obtain the element Inter-level relationship.

Further, in one embodiment of the present invention, in the element set, the elements in the element set are allowed to reach from other elements, and the elements in the element set are not allowed to reach other elements.

Further, in one embodiment of the present invention, the second acquisition module 300 is further configured to place the element set from top to bottom according to the level order, and use directed arrows or line segments to represent the relationship between adjacent level elements and within the same level The relationship between the elements to build a hierarchical structure diagram of each element in the indicator set, where, during the construction of the indicator set, if there is a mutual interaction between the elements, manual or quantitative evaluation A decision is made to eliminate the interaction effect.

It should be noted that the foregoing explanation and explanation of the embodiment of the method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set is also applicable to the apparatus for constructing a risk assessment indicator set in this embodiment, and details are not described here.

According to the device for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to an embodiment of the present invention, a matrix operation is used to quantitatively characterize the hierarchical relationship between various factors and the construction of a risk assessment indicator set, thereby optimizing the scientificity and rationality of risk assessment indicator set construction To provide a basis for the specificity and pertinence of risk prevention and control, which is simple and easy to implement.

In addition, the terms "first" and "second" are used for description purposes only, and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of indicated technical features. Thus, the features defined as "first" and "second" may include at least one of the features explicitly or implicitly. In the description of the present invention, the meaning of "plurality" is at least two, such as two, three, etc., unless specifically defined otherwise.

In the description of this specification, the description referring to the terms "one embodiment", "some embodiments", "examples", "specific examples", or "some examples" means specific features described in conjunction with the embodiment or examples , Structure, material or characteristic is included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representation of the above terms does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples. In addition, without contradicting each other, those skilled in the art may combine and combine different embodiments or examples and features of different embodiments or examples described in this specification.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are exemplary and cannot be construed as limitations to the present invention. Those of ordinary skill in the art can The embodiments are changed, modified, replaced, and modified.

Claims

A method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set is characterized by the following steps:

Obtain multiple risk factors for risk assessment and generate adjacency matrix between each risk factor;

Obtain a reachable matrix according to the adjacency matrix to construct a hierarchical relationship between elements; and

Obtain the index set structure diagram according to the hierarchical relationship between the elements.
The method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to claim 1, wherein the relational expression of the adjacency matrix is:

A=(a ij ) n×n ,

Among them, a ij = 1, indicating that there is a direct relationship between factor i and factor j; a ij = 0, indicating that there is no direct relationship between factor i and factor j; n is a positive integer.
The method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to claim 1, wherein the hierarchical relationship between the construction elements includes:

Obtaining the reachable set and the prior set for each risk factor according to the reachable matrix;

An element set is obtained according to the reachable set and the prior set to obtain the hierarchical relationship between the elements.
The method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to claim 3, wherein in the element set, the elements in the element set are allowed to arrive from other elements, and the elements in the element set are not allowed to arrive The other elements.
The method for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the acquiring the indicator set structure diagram according to the hierarchical relationship between the elements further comprises:

Place the set of elements from top to bottom according to the level order, and use directed arrows or line segments to represent the relationship between adjacent level elements and the relationship between elements within the same level to build a hierarchical structure diagram of each element in the index set ,among them,

In the process of constructing the indicator set, if there is an interaction relationship between the elements, a judgment is made through manual or quantitative evaluation to eliminate the interaction relationship.
A risk assessment indicator set construction device, characterized in that it includes:

The first obtaining module is used to obtain multiple risk factors of risk assessment and generate adjacency matrix between each risk factor;

A building module for obtaining a reachable matrix according to the adjacency matrix to build a hierarchical relationship between elements; and

The second obtaining module is configured to obtain the structure diagram of the index set according to the hierarchical relationship between the elements.
The apparatus for constructing a risk assessment indicator set according to claim 6, wherein the relational expression of the adjacency matrix is:

A=(a ij ) n×n ,

Among them, a ij = 1, indicating that there is a direct relationship between factor i and factor j; a ij = 0, indicating that there is no direct relationship between factor i and factor j; n is a positive integer.
The risk assessment indicator set construction device according to claim 6, wherein the construction module is further configured to obtain the reachable set and the prior set for each risk factor according to the reachability matrix, and according to the The reachable set and the prior set obtain the element set to obtain the hierarchical relationship between the elements.
The risk evaluation indicator set construction device according to claim 8, wherein in the element set, the elements in the element set are allowed to reach from other elements, and the elements in the element set are not allowed to arrive The other elements.
The risk assessment indicator set construction device according to claim 8 or 9, wherein the second acquisition module is further configured to place the element set from top to bottom according to the level order, and is represented by a directed arrow or a line segment The relationship between the elements of adjacent levels and the relationship between elements in the same level to build a hierarchical structure diagram of each element in the index set, where,

In the process of constructing the index set, if there is an interaction relationship between the elements, a judgment is made through manual or quantitative evaluation to eliminate the interaction relationship.