WO2019244420A1

WO2019244420A1 - Information processing device, management system, control program and prediction method

Info

Publication number: WO2019244420A1
Application number: PCT/JP2019/008987
Authority: WO
Inventors: 慶祐大前
Original assignee: オムロン株式会社
Priority date: 2018-06-20
Filing date: 2019-03-07
Publication date: 2019-12-26
Also published as: JP2019219281A

Abstract

The present invention performs accurate lifetime prediction, even when deterioration of a subject is abnormally progressed. This information processing device (100) is provided with: a deterioration function construction unit (481) which determines a deterioration curve that indicates the degree of deterioration of a subject with respect to an elapsed time according to an environmental factor; a transmitted light intensity determination unit (482) which periodically acquires a physical amount that reflects the degree of deterioration; and a lifetime calculation unit (483) which predicts a remaining lifetime of the subject from the physical amount and the deterioration curve.

Description

Information processing apparatus, management system, control program, and prediction method

The present invention relates to an information processing apparatus, a management system, a control program, and a prediction method for predicting a degree of deterioration of an object.

As a method of estimating the service life of a device, for example, Patent Literature 1 discloses a method of diagnosing the state of deterioration of an insulator. In the method, a correction value of a diagnosis item in consideration of the influence of an external environmental factor is obtained, and the deterioration state of the insulator is diagnosed using the correction value.

Patent Document 2 discloses an information processing device or the like for estimating the life of a device. In detail, the information processing apparatus measures a physical quantity in an installation environment, and outputs a measurement result as sensor information, and a device life that changes according to the installation environment based on the sensor information output from the sensor. And a device life prediction unit for predicting. Further, the information processing apparatus includes a pattern holding unit that holds, for each physical quantity measured by the sensor, a plurality of patterns defined in advance by a curve indicating a device life with time. The device life prediction unit predicts the device life by selecting a predetermined pattern from a plurality of patterns held in the pattern holding unit based on sensor information output from the sensor.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication “JP 2005-61901 A (published March 10, 2005)” Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication "JP-A-2017-219515 (published on December 14, 2017)"

However, the above-described conventional technology is not a technology on the premise that a device or a member constituting the device undergoes unsteady deterioration such that deterioration progresses to an unexpected degree in a short period of time. Therefore, in the above-described related art, when the deterioration of the target device proceeds irregularly, there is a possibility that it may be difficult to accurately predict the life of the target device.

One object of one embodiment of the present invention is to realize an information processing device or the like capable of performing accurate life prediction.

In order to solve the above problem, an information processing apparatus according to an aspect of the present invention includes a curve determination unit that determines a deterioration curve representing a degree of deterioration of the target object with respect to elapsed time according to an environmental factor of the target object. An acquisition unit that periodically acquires a measured value of a physical quantity reflecting the degree of deterioration of the object; and a degree of deterioration of the object based on the measured value of the physical quantity and the deterioration curve. And a predicting unit that predicts a period until the time reaches.

Further, a control method of the information processing apparatus according to an aspect of the present invention includes a curve determining step of determining a deterioration curve representing a degree of deterioration of the object with respect to elapsed time according to an environmental factor of the object; An acquisition step of periodically acquiring a measured value of a physical quantity reflecting the degree of deterioration of the target object, based on the measured value of the physical quantity and the deterioration curve, until the degree of deterioration of the object reaches a predetermined degree of deterioration. A prediction step of predicting a period.

According to one embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to accurately predict a period until the degree of deterioration of the target object reaches the predetermined degree of deterioration.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a main configuration of a life estimating apparatus according to a first embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure showing an example of an example of application of a life prediction device in a system concerning Embodiment 1 of the present invention. 5 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a flow of a life expectancy process of the information processing apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention. FIGS. 7A and 7B are diagrams illustrating an example of a deterioration curve indicated by a deterioration function according to the first embodiment of the present invention. 4 is a graph showing the time until the insulating property of the mineral oil is lost when the accelerated test of the mineral oil is performed in a dark place with the humidity kept constant according to the first embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the common logarithm (Ln (t)) of the life time of the mineral oil at each temperature and the reciprocal of the temperature T (K) according to the first embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a relationship between a common logarithm Ln (I) of absorbance and an elapsed time t in the mineral oil according to the first embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a temperature profile of the transformer up to an elapsed time t according to the first embodiment of the present invention. 4 is a graph showing the time until the insulating property of the mineral oil is lost when an accelerated test of the mineral oil is performed in a dark place with the humidity and the temperature kept constant, according to the first embodiment of the present invention. The figure which shows the relationship between the common logarithm (Ln (t)) of the life time in the mineral oil containing each water content and the reciprocal of the water content A contained in the mineral oil (1 / A) according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. It is. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the common logarithm Ln (I) of the absorbance of the mineral oil in IR of the wavelength which a carbonyl group absorbs, and elapsed time t which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. FIG. 6 is a block diagram illustrating a main configuration of a life estimating device 4a according to a second embodiment of the present invention. 9 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a flow of a life prediction process of the information processing device according to the second embodiment of the present invention.

[Embodiment 1]
Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail.

§1 Application Example FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of an application example of the life prediction device (management system) 4 in the system 1. First, an outline of an application example of the life estimation device 4 will be described with reference to FIG.

The system 1 is a system for predicting the life of the mineral oil of the transformer 2 with respect to the electrical insulation. According to the above configuration, the user can replace the mineral oil before the mineral oil loses the electrical insulating property, and the failure of the transformer 2 can be prevented.

As shown in FIG. 2, the system 1 includes a transformer 2, a prediction device 3, and a data center 6. Further, the prediction device 3 includes a life prediction device 4.

The life prediction device 4 calculates a deterioration function or a deterioration curve representing the relationship between the use time of the mineral oil and the degree of deterioration from environmental factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) that affect the environment of the mineral oil provided in the transformer 2.

(4) The life expectancy predicting device 4 periodically (at a predetermined timing) acquires the measurement result of the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil of the transformer 2. For example, as the mineral oil deteriorates, the transmitted light intensity (transmittance) of infrared light (infrared radiation: IR) of a predetermined wavelength in the mineral oil decreases.

Therefore, the life prediction device 4 may acquire the measurement result of the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil by acquiring the measurement result of the transmitted light intensity of the IR of the predetermined wavelength in the mineral oil.

The life expectancy predicting device 4 calculates the actual use time of the mineral oil from the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil. Here, the substantial use time is not the time when the mineral oil is actually used, but the time corresponding to the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil. The life prediction device 4 predicts the time when the mineral oil reaches a predetermined degree of deterioration from the deterioration function and the actual use time of the mineral oil, and predicts the life of the mineral oil.

According to the above configuration, the life of the object is predicted using the actual degree of deterioration of the object at the time of the prediction. Therefore, even if the target object has undergone the unsteady deterioration by the time of performing the prediction, there is an effect that the life can be predicted in consideration of the unsteady deterioration.

The above configuration can be realized by forming a system with an IR light source and an IR sensor, and can accurately predict the life at low cost.

The non-stationary deterioration includes, for example, a deterioration outside a predicted range due to a sudden change in the amount of water contained in mineral oil caused by a maintenance operation, a natural disaster, a beast damage, or the like.

§2 Configuration example (Transformer 2)
As described above, the transformer 2 includes the mineral oil having an electrical insulating property. Further, as shown in FIG. 2, the transformer 2 includes a valve 21 for discharging the mineral oil from the transformer 2 to the prediction device 3. When the mineral oil is discharged from the transformer 2, it is injected into the prediction device 3 via the suction path 33 of the prediction device 3.

(Estimation device 3)
The prediction device 3 includes a suction path 33, a rotary blade 34, a rotary shaft 35, a magnet 36, an electric motor 37, and a life prediction device 4. The suction path 33, the rotary blade 34, the rotary shaft 35, the magnet 36, and the electric motor 37 are configured to suction the mineral oil from the transformer 2 to the prediction device 3. In addition, the configuration including the suction path 33, the rotary blades 34, the rotary shaft 35, the magnet 36, and the electric motor 37 may return the mineral oil whose deterioration degree has been measured to the transformer 2.

(Life prediction device 4)
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a main part of the life estimating device 4 according to the present embodiment.

As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, the life estimation device 4 includes an IR light source protection housing 41, a transmission window 42, an IR light source 43, an IR sensor protection housing 44, a wavelength cut filter 45, an IR sensor 46, and a temperature sensor 47. And an information processing device 100.

(IR light source 43)
As shown in FIG. 2, the IR light source 43 is disposed inside the IR light source protection housing 41. The IR light source 43 irradiates the mineral oil sucked by the prediction device 3 with IR through the transmission window 42 provided in the IR light source protection casing 41. The IR light source 43 may be configured to generate mid-infrared rays to far-infrared rays (for example, IR having a wavelength of 2.5 μm to 1000 μm). As a material of the transmission window 42, calcium fluoride (CaF ₂ ) or the like may be used.

Further, the light generated by the IR light source 43 is a near-infrared ray (for example, IR having a wavelength of 0.7 to 2.5 μm) or visible light (for example, light having a wavelength of 0.4 to 0.7 μm). May be glass. According to the above configuration, a general-purpose product can be used for the IR light source 43. Further, the cost of the transmission window 42 can be reduced.

(IR sensor 46)
As shown in FIG. 2, the IR sensor 46 is disposed inside the IR sensor protection housing 44. The IR sensor 46 detects the IR radiated from the IR light source 43 and transmitted through the mineral oil via the transmission window 42 and the wavelength cut filter 45 installed in the IR sensor protection casing 44. The wavelength cut filter 45 is a filter that cuts off IR of a predetermined wavelength. For example, the wavelength cut filter 45 may be configured to selectively transmit IR having a wavelength in the range of 5 to 6 μm.

For example, the IR sensor 46 may be configured to detect IR at a wavelength that is absorbed by a functional group that increases with the deterioration of the mineral oil. In other words, the measured value of the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil changes according to the molecular structure of the mineral oil. According to the configuration, it is possible to realize the life predicting device 4 that measures the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil by utilizing the characteristics of the deterioration of the mineral oil.

In this case, a filter that cuts IR of a wavelength other than the wavelength absorbed by the functional group may be used as the wavelength cut filter 45. As the functional group, for example, a carbonyl group (> C ＝ O) contained in a carboxyl group, a ketone, an aldehyde or the like may be used. The IR sensor 46 outputs a signal indicating the detected IR transmitted light intensity to the control unit 48.

The life prediction device 4 may be configured not to include the wavelength cut filter 45 by applying the IR light source 43 that irradiates IR having a narrow wavelength range to the life prediction device 4. According to the above configuration, the number of members constituting the life prediction device 4 can be reduced, and the degree of freedom in designing the life prediction device 4 can be increased. For example, it is possible to contribute to downsizing of the life prediction device 4.

(Temperature sensor 47)
The temperature sensor 47 measures the temperature of the mineral oil, and outputs a signal indicating the measured temperature to the control unit 48.

(Information processing device 100)
The information processing device 100 includes a control unit 48, a communication unit 49, a timer 50, and a storage unit 51.

(Control unit 48)
The control unit 48 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), and the like, and controls each component according to information processing. The control unit 48 includes a deterioration function creation unit (curve determination unit) 481, a transmitted light intensity determination unit (acquisition unit) 482, a life calculation unit (prediction unit) 483, and a change rate change unit (deterioration curve correction unit) 484. I have.

(Deterioration function creation unit 481)
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a deterioration curve indicated by the deterioration function created by the deterioration function creating unit 481. The curve shown by the solid line in FIG. 4 shows the deterioration curve. The deterioration curve shows the relationship between the use time (elapsed time) of the mineral oil and the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil.

The deterioration function creating unit 481 determines the deterioration curve representing the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil with respect to the elapsed time according to the environmental factor of the mineral oil (object).

More specifically, the deterioration function creating unit 481 generates a deterioration function indicating the relationship between the usage time of the mineral oil and the transmitted light intensity (degree of deterioration) of the mineral oil from the temperature of the mineral oil indicated by the signal received from the temperature sensor 47. calculate. The deterioration function creation unit 481 stores the deterioration function data 511 indicating at least one of the calculated deterioration function and the deterioration curve in the storage unit 51.

(Transmitted light intensity determination unit 482)
The transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 acquires the transmitted light intensity of the mineral oil from the IR sensor 46 at a predetermined cycle with reference to the timer 50. The timer 50 determines the elapsed time since the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 acquires the transmitted light intensity, or The life calculation unit 483 indicates the elapsed time after calculating the life of the mineral oil. The transmitted light intensity reflects the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil (object).

In other words, the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 periodically acquires a measured value of a physical quantity that reflects the degree of deterioration of the target object.

The transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 compares the current predicted value of the transmitted light intensity predicted from the deterioration function data 511 with the actually measured value of the acquired transmitted light intensity.

(4) The transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 determines whether the difference between the actually measured value and the predicted value is any of the following (1) to (3).

(1) The difference between the measured value and the predicted value is less than the first threshold value (2) The difference between the measured value and the predicted value is equal to or more than the first threshold value and less than the second threshold value (3) The measured value and the predicted value If the difference from the difference is equal to or more than the second threshold value (1), the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 outputs the predicted value of the transmitted light intensity to the life calculation unit 483.

In the case of (2), the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 outputs the measured value of the transmitted light intensity to the life calculation unit 483.

In the case of (3), the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 outputs the predicted value and the measured value of the transmitted light intensity to the life calculation unit 483.

The transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 may be configured to acquire the absorbance and calculate the transmitted light intensity.

(Change rate change unit 484)
The change rate changing unit 484 changes the change rate of the deterioration curve indicated by the deterioration function data 511. More specifically, the change rate changing unit 484 calculates a difference between the obtained measured value and the predicted value of the transmitted light intensity. For example, the change rate changing unit 484 may refer to the change rate table 512 stored in the storage unit 51 and set the change rate corresponding to the magnitude of the difference between the actually measured value and the predicted value. For example, the change rate table 512 shows a change rate according to the magnitude of the difference between the actually measured value and the predicted value.

The change rate changing unit 484 changes the deterioration function data 511 such that the change rate of the deterioration curve becomes the set change rate. After that, the change rate changing unit 484 outputs the actually measured value of the transmitted light intensity to the life calculating unit 483. That is, the life calculation unit 483 calculates the life time described later using the deterioration function data 511 in which the change rate of the deterioration curve is changed.

(Life calculation unit 483)
The life calculation unit 483 predicts a period until the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil reaches a predetermined degree of deterioration based on the acquired transmitted light intensity and the deterioration curve.

More specifically, the life calculation unit 483 refers to the deterioration function data 511 and calculates the elapsed time corresponding to the actually measured value or the predicted value of the transmitted light intensity output from the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 or the change rate change unit 484. calculate. The life calculation unit 483 calculates the remaining life of the mineral oil using the calculated elapsed time. The life calculation unit 483 outputs a signal indicating the calculated remaining life of the mineral oil to the data center 6, which is an external device, via the communication unit 49.

(Communication unit 49)
The communication unit 49 performs communication with an external device. The communication unit 49 may perform wired communication using a cable or the like, or may perform wireless communication.

(Data center 6)
The data center 6 is for managing the transformer 2, for example. The data center 6 receives a signal indicating the life time (remaining life) of the mineral oil from the life prediction device 4. The data center 6 may include a display unit and the like. The data center 6 notifies the user of the life time of the mineral oil of the transformer 2 by displaying the life time predicted by the life prediction device 4 on the display unit or the like.

§3 Operation example (example of processing flow of information processing apparatus 100)
FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the flow of the life estimation process of the information processing apparatus 100. An example of the flow of the life prediction process of the information processing device 100 will be described with reference to FIG.

When the deterioration function creating unit 481 acquires a signal indicating the temperature of the mineral oil from the temperature sensor 47 (S1), the use time of the mineral oil and the transmitted light intensity of the mineral oil (deterioration) are used using the temperature indicated by the acquired signal. (A degree) is calculated (a deterioration curve is generated). Subsequently, the life calculation unit 483 predicts the life time of the mineral oil from the deterioration function data 511 (S2: curve determination step). Here, details of the prediction of the life time by the life calculation unit 483 will be described with reference to FIG. The curve shown by the solid line in FIG. 4A is a graph (deterioration curve) representing the deterioration function calculated by the deterioration function generator 481. The horizontal axis of the graph indicates the use time of the mineral oil, and the vertical axis indicates the transmitted light intensity of the mineral oil. Further, a life determination value is set on the vertical axis. The life calculation unit 483 predicts the predicted time (Lt1) at which the transmitted light intensity of the mineral oil reaches the life determination value as the life time of the mineral oil, and calculates the mineral oil from the usage time up to the present and the life time of the mineral oil. Predict the remaining life time.

For example, the life calculation unit 483 calculates a life time (initial life time) at the start of use of the mineral oil from the predicted life time of the mineral oil, and subtracts the use time from the initial life time to the present time. To calculate the remaining life time of the mineral oil.

Subsequently, the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 determines the transmitted light intensity of the mineral oil from the IR sensor 46 when a predetermined period elapses after the life calculation unit 483 calculates the life (S3). Acquisition (S4: acquisition step). Subsequently, the transmitted light intensity determining unit 482 determines whether the difference between the current predicted value of the transmitted light intensity predicted from the deterioration function data 511 and the actually measured value of the transmitted light intensity is equal to or greater than a first threshold value. (S5). When the difference between the measured value and the predicted value is less than the first threshold value (NO in S5), the life calculation unit 483 predicts the life time from the use time corresponding to the predicted value (S6: prediction step). Then, the process returns to S3.

If the difference between the measured value and the predicted value is equal to or greater than the first threshold value (YES in S5), transmitted light intensity determination section 482 determines the current predicted value of transmitted light intensity predicted from deterioration function data 511 and the acquired transmission It is determined whether the difference between the measured light intensity and the measured value is equal to or greater than a second threshold (S7). When the difference between the measured value and the predicted value is less than the second threshold value (NO in S7), the life calculation unit 483 calculates the use time corresponding to the measured value from the deterioration curve. That is, the use time in the deterioration curve is corrected (S8). Subsequently, the life calculation unit 483 predicts the life time from the corrected use time (S6). Then, the process returns to S3.

Here, the processing subsequent to S5, S7, S8 and S6 will be specifically described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 4A, the predicted value of the transmitted light intensity at the time point t 'in the deterioration curve is the predicted value Y1. On the other hand, it is assumed that the measured value of the transmitted light intensity IR measured by the IR sensor 46 at time t 'is the measured value YA'. When the difference A between the predicted value Y1 and the actually measured value YA 'is equal to or larger than the first threshold and smaller than the second threshold, the life calculating unit 483 corrects the use time in the deterioration curve as follows. The life calculation unit 483 sets the time point ta at which the transmitted light intensity corresponds to the actually measured value YA 'in the deterioration curve as the current time, and corrects the usage time up to the present time to the time up to the time point ta (assumed elapsed time). Subsequently, the life calculating unit 483 predicts the current life time (remaining life) of the mineral oil from the time point ta and the life time point Lt1 by calculating the time from the time point ta to the life time point Lt1.

The above processing can be paraphrased as follows. The life calculation unit 483 specifies a deemed elapsed time that can be regarded as elapsed from the degree of deterioration and the deterioration curve corresponding to the actually measured value (measured value) of the transmitted light intensity. Subsequently, the life calculation unit 483 predicts a period until the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil reaches the life determination value (a predetermined degree of deterioration) according to the deterioration curve after the assumed elapsed time.

According to the above configuration, even when a difference occurs between the predicted value of the degree of deterioration and the actually measured value, the remaining life of the mineral oil can be accurately predicted.

If the difference between the measured value and the predicted value is greater than or equal to the second threshold (YES in S7), the change rate changing unit 484 changes the change rate of the deterioration curve (S9). Subsequently, the life calculation unit 483 predicts the life time from the deterioration curve whose rate of change has been changed (S6). Then, the process returns to S3.

Here, the processing subsequent to S5, S7, S9 and S6 will be specifically described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 4B, the predicted value of the transmitted light intensity at the time point t ″ in the deterioration curve is the predicted value Y2. On the other hand, it is assumed that the measured value of the transmitted light intensity IR acquired from the IR sensor 46 at time t ″ is the measured value YA ″. When the difference B between the predicted value Y2 and the actually measured value YA ″ is equal to or greater than the second threshold, the change rate changing unit 484 sets the change rate of the deterioration curve indicated by the deterioration function data 511 so that the progress of the deterioration becomes faster. change. Specifically, the change rate changing unit 484 changes the change rate according to the magnitude of the difference between the measured value and the predicted value. In FIG. 4B, the degradation curve whose rate of change has been changed is indicated by a chain line. As shown in FIG. 4B, the deterioration curve whose rate of change is changed starts from the actual measurement value YA '' at the time point t ''. Further, when the change rate and the start position of the deterioration curve are changed, the predicted time when the transmitted light intensity of the mineral oil reaches the life determination value is changed to Lt2. Subsequently, the life calculation unit 483 calculates the remaining life of the mineral oil from the time t ″ and the changed time Lt2 of the life.

The above processing can be paraphrased as follows. When the difference between the degree of deterioration corresponding to the transmitted light intensity of the mineral oil at a certain point in time and the degree of deterioration expected from the deterioration curve at that point in time is equal to or less than a predetermined value, the life calculation unit 483 uses the first curve (FIG. The curve shown by the solid line in (b) is used as a future deterioration curve. If the difference between the degree of deterioration corresponding to the transmitted light intensity of the mineral oil at the time and the degree of deterioration expected from the deterioration curve at the time is larger than a predetermined value, the life calculation unit 483 determines that the deterioration is smaller than the first curve. Is used as the future deterioration curve (the curve shown by the one-dot chain line in FIG. 4B).

For example, the cause of extreme deterioration of mineral oil in a short period of time may be a change in the water content of the mineral oil. As the moisture content of the mineral oil increases, the rate of deterioration of the mineral oil increases.

According to the above configuration, if there is a possibility that the water content of the mineral oil has increased, the second curve, which progresses faster than the first curve, is used as the future deterioration curve. Therefore, the remaining life of the mineral oil can be accurately predicted. Note that three or more curves that are candidates for the deterioration curve are prepared, and a curve that becomes the deterioration curve may be selected according to the magnitude of the difference B between the predicted value Y2 and the actually measured value YA ″.

Further, in the above description, the life predicting device 4 is configured to predict the remaining life of the mineral oil using the transmitted light intensity (transmittance). However, the life predicting device 4 uses the absorbance to measure the remaining life of the mineral oil. May be predicted.

(Example 1 of creation of deterioration function)
The deterioration function according to the present embodiment may be created (calculated) as described below. In this example, the deterioration function creation unit 481 creates a deterioration function based on the temperature, with the environmental factor of the mineral oil as the temperature.

FIG. 5 is a graph showing the time until the insulation of the mineral oil is lost when the accelerated test of the mineral oil is performed in a dark place with the humidity kept constant (60%). The abscissa indicates the elapsed time, and the ordinate indicates the percentage (unreliability) of the samples that have lost the insulating property among the samples (for example, 10 samples) that have been tested. In FIG. 5, as the temperature T, the time until the insulation property is lost in the samples at 90 ° C., 105 ° C., and 120 ° C. is shown by a Weibull distribution. For example, the elapsed time at which the unreliability becomes 70% at each temperature may be set as the life of each temperature.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the relationship between the common logarithm of the lifetime at each temperature (Ln (t)) and the reciprocal of the temperature T (K). The life L can be expressed by the following equation by applying the Arrhenius model. In addition, a shown in FIG. 6 has shown the inclination.

Ln (L) = a × (1 / T)
L = exp (a / T) ・・・ Equation 1
Next, for example, a function indicating the degree of deterioration of a mineral oil due to a chemical change when an accelerated deterioration test of the mineral oil is performed in a specific temperature (for example, 120 ° C.), a constant humidity (60%), and a dark place is created. An example will be described.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the relationship between the common logarithm Ln (I) of absorbance in mineral oil and the elapsed time t. The absorbance is an IR absorbance at a wavelength that the carbonyl group absorbs.

In this example, the cause of the degree of deterioration of the mineral oil is caused by an increase in the carbonyl groups of the mineral oil, and the mineral absorbance (peak area I) at the wavelength (wavelength of 5.7 μm to 5.9 μm) absorbed by the carbonyl group indicates Calculate the degree of oil deterioration. As shown in FIG. 7, the relationship shown in FIG. 7 was obtained when the vertical axis is the common logarithm of the absorbance of IR and the horizontal axis is the elapsed time. In addition, b shown in FIG. 7 has shown the inclination. From the above results, it could be determined that the increase in carbonyl groups in the mineral oil was a primary reaction in which the amount of oxygen was constant.

From the above results, the relationship between the absorbance of the mineral oil at the wavelength absorbed by the carbonyl group and the elapsed time at a temperature of 120 ° C., a humidity of 60% and a dark place can be expressed by the following equation.

Ln (I) = b × t
I = exp (bt) ... Equation 2
(Calculation example 1 of remaining life of mineral oil)
The calculation of the remaining life of the mineral oil according to the present embodiment may be performed as described below.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a temperature profile in the transformer 2 up to the elapsed time t. The vertical axis of the graph shown in FIG. 8 indicates the temperature T, and the horizontal axis indicates the elapsed time.

For example, _let the average temperature up to the elapsed time t be the average temperature T _AVE.t. The remaining life LRe at the elapsed time t can be calculated by the following formula.

LRe = Lt = exp (a / T _AVE.t )-t ・・・ Equation 3
Further, at the elapsed time t, the IR light is irradiated from the IR light source 43 onto the mineral oil, transmitted through the wavelength cut filter 45 which is a band-pass filter that cuts other than the wavelength absorption band of the carbonyl group, and detected by the IR sensor 46. Let It be the absorbance of.

In this case, the elapsed time t _real calculated from the degradation function and the absorbance It shown in the above equation 2 can be expressed by the following equation from the inverse function of the above equation 2.

I ^-1 = t = Ln (I) / b
t _real = Ln (It) / b ・・・ Equation 4
The difference between the elapsed time t and the elapsed time t _real calculated by the absorbance It and the deterioration function can be caused not only by steady deterioration but also by unsteady deterioration (inspection, maintenance, power outage, unsteady use, etc.) High in nature. Therefore, by setting t _real to the substantial elapsed time, an appropriate remaining life can be calculated.

Therefore, an appropriate remaining life LRe can be calculated by the following Expression 5 obtained by converting (correcting) t in Expression 3 above to t _real for calculating the remaining life LRe.

LRe = L-t = exp (a / T _AVE.t )-t _real・・・ Equation 5
(Example 2 of creation of deterioration function)
Next, another example of creating the deterioration function according to the present embodiment will be described. In this example, the deterioration function creating unit 481 creates a deterioration function according to the water content of the mineral oil.

FIG. 9 shows the time until the insulation of the mineral oil is lost when the accelerated test of the mineral oil is performed in a dark place with the humidity and the temperature kept constant (for example, the humidity is 60% and the temperature is 105 ° C.). It is a graph. The abscissa indicates the elapsed time, and the ordinate indicates the percentage (unreliability) of the samples that have lost the insulating property among the samples (for example, 10 samples) that have been tested. In FIG. 9, the time until the insulating property is lost in the samples in which the amount of water contained in the mineral oil is 100 ppm, 300 ppm, and 500 ppm is shown by a Weibull distribution. For example, the elapsed time at which the unreliability becomes 70% in the sample containing each moisture content may be set as the life of the mineral oil containing each moisture content.

FIG. 10 is a graph showing the relationship between the common logarithm (Ln (t)) of the life of a mineral oil containing each water content and the reciprocal (1 / A) of the water content A contained in the mineral oil. The life L can be expressed by the following equation by applying the Arrhenius model. Note that a 'shown in FIG. 10 indicates an inclination.

Ln (L) = a '× (1 / A)
L = exp (a '/ A) ・・・ Equation 6
Next, for example, at a certain temperature (105 ° C), a certain humidity (60%), a certain amount of water contained in a certain mineral oil (for example, a water content of 300 ppm), an accelerated deterioration test of the mineral oil in a dark place is performed. An example in which a function indicating the degree of deterioration of a mineral oil due to a chemical change when the function is performed will be described.

FIG. 11 is a graph showing the relationship between the common logarithm Ln (I) of the absorbance of mineral oil at the wavelength absorbed by the carbonyl group and the elapsed time t.

In this example, the cause of the deterioration degree of the mineral oil is assumed to be an increase in the carbonyl group (> C = O) of the mineral oil, and the deterioration degree of the mineral oil is calculated from the absorbance (peak area I) at the wavelength absorbed by the carbonyl group. . As shown in FIG. 11, when the vertical axis is a common logarithm of the absorbance of IR and the horizontal axis is elapsed time, the relationship shown in FIG. 11 was obtained. In addition, b 'shown in FIG. 11 has shown the inclination. From the above results, it could be determined that the increase in carbonyl groups in the mineral oil was a primary reaction in which the amount of oxygen was constant.

From the above results, the relationship between the IR absorbance of the wavelength absorbed by the carbonyl group of the mineral oil and the elapsed time in a dark place at a temperature of 105 ° C, a humidity of 60%, a moisture content of the mineral oil of 300 ppm, and a dark place is given by Can be represented by

Ln (I) = b '× t
I = exp (b't) ... Equation 7
The deterioration function creating unit 481 calculates the contribution of a plurality of environmental factors (temperature, humidity, water content of mineral oil, illuminance, etc.) to the deterioration function (deterioration curve), and calculates the deterioration function (deterioration) from the plurality of environmental factors. Curve).

[Embodiment 2]
Another embodiment of the present invention will be described below. For convenience of explanation, members having the same functions as the members described in the above embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals, and the description thereof will not be repeated.

§1 Configuration Example FIG. 12 is a block diagram showing a main configuration of a life estimating device 4a according to the present embodiment.

寿命 As shown in FIG. 12, the lifetime prediction device 4a according to the present embodiment includes a transmitted light intensity determination unit 482a instead of the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 included in the lifetime prediction device 4 described in the first embodiment. Further, the life estimating device 4a includes a change rate changing section 484a instead of the change rate changing section 484.

The change rate changing unit 484a acquires the detection result of the moisture (contaminant) contained in the mineral oil (target), and corrects the deterioration curve according to the moisture content of the mineral oil.

According to the above configuration, it is possible to appropriately predict the remaining life of the mineral oil according to the water content of the mineral oil.

Regarding the difference between the processing performed by the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482 and the change rate change unit 484 described in the first embodiment and the processing performed by the transmitted light intensity determination unit 482a and the change rate change unit 484a, the following “information processing apparatus” Example of Process Flow of 100a ".

(4) The life predicting device 4a includes an IR sensor 46a instead of the IR sensor 46. The IR sensor 46a outputs, in addition to the function of the IR sensor 46, the absorbance of the wavelength absorbed by water to the change rate changing unit 484a.

The life prediction device 4a includes a storage unit 51a that stores an absorbance-water content correspondence table 513a and a water content-change rate correspondence table 514a instead of the storage unit 51.

The absorbance-water content correspondence table 513a shows the water content corresponding to the value of the absorbance at the wavelength absorbed by water. The water content-change rate correspondence table 514a shows the change rate of the deterioration curve changed by the change rate changing unit 484 in accordance with the water content of the mineral oil.

For example, the change rate is associated with the water content-change rate correspondence table 514a such that the greater the water content, the faster the deterioration progresses. That is, the change rate changing unit 484a corrects the future deterioration curve so that the larger the amount of the contaminant in the target object, the faster the deterioration progresses.

According to the above configuration, the deterioration curve can be changed so that the deterioration progresses faster according to the amount of the contaminants.

§2 Operation example (example of processing flow of information processing apparatus 100a)
FIG. 13 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the flow of the life estimation process of the information processing apparatus 100a. An example of the flow of the life prediction process of the information processing device 100a will be described with reference to FIG. Note that among the processing illustrated in FIG. 13, the same processing as the processing illustrated in FIG. 3 of the first embodiment is denoted by the same step number, and description thereof will not be repeated.

(4) The transmitted light intensity determination unit 482a determines whether the difference between the predicted value and the measured value is equal to or greater than a second threshold (S7). When the difference between the measured value and the predicted value is equal to or greater than the second threshold value (YES in S7), the transmitted light intensity determining unit 482a causes the change rate changing unit 484a to determine the absorbance of the mineral oil having a wavelength absorbed by water. Instruct acquisition. The change rate changing unit 484a acquires, from the IR sensor 46a, a value of absorbance obtained by irradiating the mineral oil with an IR having a wavelength that is absorbed by water (S10). Subsequently, the change rate changing unit 484a determines the change rate of the deterioration curve to be changed with reference to the absorbance-moisture content correspondence table 513a and the moisture content-change rate correspondence table 514a. The change rate changing unit 484a changes the deterioration function data so that the change rate of the deterioration curve is determined and becomes the change rate (S11). Thereafter, the life calculation unit 483 predicts the remaining life of the mineral oil using the changed deterioration function data (S6).

In the above-described embodiment, the configuration in which the

life prediction devices

4 and 4a predict the life of the mineral oil provided in the transformer 2 has been described. For example, the temperature during operation of the engine affects the deterioration of the engine oil. Therefore, the deterioration function may be created from the temperature detected by the temperature sensor during operation of the engine. Therefore, the

life prediction devices

4 and 4a can be applied to prediction of the remaining life of the engine oil provided in the engine.

[Example of software implementation]
Control blocks of the information processing apparatus 100 and the information processing apparatus 100a (particularly, a deterioration function creating unit 481, a transmitted light intensity determining unit 482, a transmitted light intensity determining unit 482a, a life calculating unit 483, a change rate changing unit 484, and a change rate changing unit 484a. ) May be realized by a logic circuit (hardware) formed in an integrated circuit (IC chip) or the like, or may be realized by software.

In the latter case, the information processing apparatus 100 and the information processing apparatus 100a include a computer that executes instructions of a program that is software for realizing each function. This computer includes, for example, one or more processors and a computer-readable recording medium storing the above-described program. Then, in the computer, the object of the present invention is achieved when the processor reads the program from the recording medium and executes the program. As the processor, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) can be used. Examples of the recording medium include “temporary tangible media” such as ROM (Read Only Memory), tapes, disks, cards, semiconductor memories, and programmable logic circuits. Further, a RAM (Random Access Memory) for expanding the program may be further provided. Further, the program may be supplied to the computer via an arbitrary transmission medium (a communication network, a broadcast wave, or the like) capable of transmitting the program. Note that one embodiment of the present invention can also be realized in the form of a data signal embedded in a carrier wave, in which the program is embodied by electronic transmission.

The present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and various modifications are possible within the scope shown in the claims, and embodiments obtained by appropriately combining the technical means disclosed in different embodiments. Is also included in the technical scope of the present invention.

[Summary]
An information processing apparatus according to one aspect of the present invention includes a curve determination unit that determines a deterioration curve representing a degree of deterioration of the object with respect to elapsed time according to an environmental factor of the object, and reflects the degree of deterioration of the object. An acquisition unit that periodically acquires the measured value of the physical quantity, and a prediction that predicts a period until the degree of deterioration of the target object reaches a predetermined degree of deterioration based on the measured value of the physical quantity and the deterioration curve. Unit.

According to the configuration described above, the life of the object is predicted using the actual degree of deterioration of the object at the time of the prediction. Therefore, even if the target object has undergone the unsteady deterioration by the time of performing the prediction, there is an effect that the life can be predicted in consideration of the unsteady deterioration.

The predicting unit, from the deterioration degree and the deterioration curve corresponding to the measured value of the physical quantity, specifies an assumed elapsed time that can be regarded as elapsed, and according to the deterioration curve after the assumed elapsed time, according to the deterioration curve. A period until the degree of deterioration reaches a predetermined degree of deterioration may be predicted.

According to the configuration, even when a difference occurs between the predicted value and the measured value of the degree of deterioration, the remaining life of the mineral oil can be predicted based on the measured value of the degree of deterioration. That is, there is an effect that accurate life prediction can be performed.

The prediction unit, when a difference between the degree of deterioration corresponding to the measured value of the physical quantity at a certain point in time and the degree of deterioration expected from the deterioration curve at the point in time is equal to or less than a predetermined value, the first curve is changed to a future curve. When the difference between the degree of deterioration corresponding to the measured value of the physical quantity at the time and the degree of deterioration expected from the deterioration curve at the time is larger than a predetermined value, the first curve is used. The second curve in which the deterioration progresses faster may be used as the future deterioration curve.

For example, when the target is a mineral oil, the cause of extreme deterioration in a short period of time is a change in the water content of the mineral oil. As the moisture content of the mineral oil increases, the rate of deterioration of the mineral oil increases.

According to the above configuration, if there is a possibility that the water content of the mineral oil has increased, the second curve, which progresses faster than the first curve, is used as the future deterioration curve. Therefore, there is an effect that the remaining life of the mineral oil can be accurately predicted.

The information processing apparatus may include a deterioration curve correction unit that acquires a detection result of a contaminant included in the target object and corrects the future deterioration curve in accordance with the detection result of the contaminant. According to the above configuration, there is an effect that an appropriate remaining life prediction can be performed according to the detection result of the contaminant.

The prediction unit may correct the future degradation curve such that the greater the amount of the contaminant, the faster the degradation progresses. According to the configuration, the prediction unit has an effect that the deterioration curve can be changed so that the progress of the deterioration is accelerated according to the amount of the contaminant.

前記 The measured value of the physical quantity may change according to the molecular structure of the object. According to the above configuration, there is an effect that the life can be predicted based on the deterioration according to the molecular structure.

物理 The physical quantity may be a transmittance of light having a predetermined wavelength. According to the above configuration, there is an effect that the life can be predicted using the transmittance of light having a predetermined wavelength.

物理 The physical quantity may be a transmittance of an infrared ray having a predetermined wavelength. According to the above configuration, there is an effect that the life can be predicted using the transmittance of infrared light having a predetermined wavelength.

The environmental factor may be temperature. According to the above configuration, there is an effect that the curve determination unit can determine a deterioration curve indicating a degree of deterioration of the object with respect to elapsed time according to the temperature of the object.

The object may be oil. According to the above configuration, there is an effect that the life of the oil can be predicted.

The object may be oil, and the contaminant may be water. According to the above configuration, there is an effect that the life expectancy of oil can be predicted according to the water content.

To solve the above-described problem, a management system according to an aspect of the present invention may include any one of the above-described information processing apparatuses and a sensor that measures the physical quantity.

In order to solve the above-described problem, a control program according to an embodiment of the present invention is a control program for causing a computer to function as the above-described information processing device, the control program including the curve determination unit, the acquisition unit, and the prediction A computer may function as a unit.

4, 4a Life prediction device (management system)
481 Deterioration function creation unit (curve determination unit)
482 Transmitted light intensity determination unit (acquisition unit)
483 Life Calculator (Predictor)
484, 484a Change rate change unit (deterioration curve correction unit)
100, 100a Information processing device S2 Curve determination step S4 Acquisition step S6 Prediction step

Claims

A curve determining unit that determines a deterioration curve representing a degree of deterioration of the object with respect to elapsed time according to an environmental factor of the object,
An acquisition unit that periodically acquires a measured value of a physical quantity that reflects the degree of deterioration of the object,
An information processing apparatus, comprising: a prediction unit that predicts a period until the degree of deterioration of the target object reaches a predetermined degree of deterioration based on the measured value of the physical quantity and the deterioration curve.
The prediction unit includes:
From the degree of deterioration and the deterioration curve corresponding to the measured value of the physical quantity, specify an assumed elapsed time that can be regarded as elapsed,
The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein a period until the degree of deterioration of the target object reaches a predetermined degree of deterioration is predicted according to the deterioration curve after the assumed elapsed time.
The prediction unit includes:
When the difference between the degree of deterioration corresponding to the measured value of the physical quantity at a certain point in time and the degree of deterioration expected from the deterioration curve at the point in time is equal to or less than a predetermined value, the first curve is used as the future deterioration curve. And
When the difference between the degree of deterioration corresponding to the measured value of the physical quantity at the time point and the degree of deterioration expected from the deterioration curve at the time point is larger than a predetermined value, the deterioration progresses faster than the first curve. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein two curves are used as the future degradation curve.
4. The method according to claim 1, further comprising: acquiring a detection result of a contaminant included in the target object, and correcting a future deterioration curve in accordance with the detection result of the contaminant. 5. The information processing device according to claim 1.
5. The information processing apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the deterioration curve correction unit corrects the future deterioration curve so that the deterioration progresses faster as the amount of the contaminant increases. 6.
6. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the measurement value of the physical quantity changes according to a molecular structure of the target.
7. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the physical quantity is a transmittance of light having a predetermined wavelength. 8.
8. The information processing apparatus according to claim 7, wherein the physical quantity is a transmittance of infrared light having a predetermined wavelength.
The information processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 8, wherein the environmental factor is a temperature.
The information processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 9, wherein the object is oil.
6. The information processing apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the object is oil, and the contaminant is water.
An information processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 11,
And a sensor for measuring the physical quantity.
A control program for causing a computer to function as the information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the control program causes the computer to function as the curve determination unit, the acquisition unit, and the prediction unit.
A curve determining step of determining a deterioration curve representing a degree of deterioration of the object with respect to elapsed time according to an environmental factor of the object,
An acquisition step of periodically acquiring a measured value of a physical quantity reflecting the degree of deterioration of the object,
A prediction step of predicting a period until the degree of deterioration of the object reaches a predetermined degree of deterioration based on the measured value of the physical quantity and the deterioration curve.