WO2019227716A1 - 流感预测模型的生成方法、装置及计算机可读存储介质 - Google Patents
流感预测模型的生成方法、装置及计算机可读存储介质 Download PDFInfo
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- the present application relates to the field of computer technology, and in particular, to a method, a device, and a computer-readable storage medium for generating a flu prediction model.
- influenza prediction generally adopts a time series model based on time series autocorrelation or establishes regression models using exogenous features, or combines different models to make predictions.
- the combination of models can take advantage of the advantages of each model algorithm.
- the change law of the sequence itself and the modification of the time series model by external characteristics improve the generalization ability of the model.
- the currently commonly used model combination method is the average method, that is, calculating the average value of the prediction results of different models, and using the calculated average value as the prediction result of the combination model.
- This model combination method cannot judge the prediction ability of each model.
- the weight of each model cannot be adjusted dynamically, resulting in a lower prediction accuracy of the combined model.
- the present application provides a method, a device, and a computer-readable storage medium for generating an influenza prediction model, whose main purpose is to improve the prediction accuracy of the influenza prediction model.
- the present application also provides a method for generating an influenza prediction model, which method includes:
- the present application further provides a device for generating a flu prediction model.
- the device includes a memory and a processor.
- the memory stores a model generating program that can be run on the processor.
- the model When the generated program is executed by the processor, the following steps are implemented:
- the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium stores a model generation program, and the model generation program can be executed by one or more processors to implement Steps of the method for generating an influenza prediction model as described above.
- the method, device and computer-readable storage medium for the influenza prediction model proposed in this application are used to obtain the data of the percentage of influenza-like cases in multiple consecutive time units, and to establish an autoregressive integral moving average ARIMA model; to obtain public opinion keywords, according to the public opinion key Obtain public opinion data sequences in multiple time units using the public opinion data sequences in the public opinion data sequence as prediction features, and train the xgboost prediction model constructed based on the xgboost algorithm to determine the model parameters; according to the ARIMA model and the xgboost prediction model, construct a Car-based Influenza prediction model based on Mann filter algorithm; in the process of using influenza prediction model for influenza prediction, the first prediction value of the ARIMA model for the target time unit is used as the measurement value of the state variable, and the xgboost prediction model is used for the second time of the target time unit.
- the predicted value is used as a prior estimate of the state variable to calculate the Kalman gain of the current influenza prediction model; the weights of the two models in the influenza prediction model are updated based on the calculated Kalman gain, and the weighted influenza prediction model is updated For the next time unit In this way, the dynamic update of the weights of the two models in the influenza prediction model is achieved, so that the prediction model obtained by the combination tends to the output of the model with better current performance, which improves the accuracy of the prediction model. .
- FIG. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a method for generating an influenza prediction model according to an embodiment of the present application
- FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an internal structure of a device for generating an influenza prediction model according to an embodiment of the present application
- FIG. 3 is a schematic block diagram of a model generation program in an influenza prediction model generation device provided by an embodiment of the present application.
- FIG. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a method for generating an influenza prediction model according to an embodiment of the present application. The method may be performed by a device, which may be implemented by software and / or hardware.
- a method for generating an influenza prediction model includes:
- step S10 the data of the percentage of influenza-like cases in multiple consecutive time units are acquired, and an autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA model is established.
- Step S20 Obtain public opinion keywords, obtain public opinion data sequences in the multiple time units according to the public opinion keywords, use the public opinion data in the public opinion data sequence as a prediction feature, and train an xgboost prediction model constructed based on the xgboost algorithm. To determine model parameters.
- the keywords related to the public opinion related to influenza mainly include influenza virus, high fever, cough, nasal congestion, crack, Tylenol, upper respiratory tract infection, cough, influenza A and other keywords; according to the above public opinion keywords from The preset channels obtain public opinion data of the target area to be predicted.
- the preset channels include Baidu Search and Weibo
- the public opinion data mainly includes the Baidu search index of the above public opinion keywords on Baidu, as well as on Weibo. Posts. If a certain area is used as the analysis object, the area is used as the target area, and the Baidu search index and Weibo posting times of public opinion keywords in the area are obtained.
- the week is used as a time unit, and the Baidu search index on Baidu and the number of postings on Weibo for each week in the past 5 years are obtained as public opinion data.
- the public opinion data of the public opinion keyword on a preset channel can form a sequence containing 260 data, each data in the sequence is a candidate feature, and all candidate features constitute a candidate feature set. Use the features in this set to train an xgboost prediction model based on the xgboost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) algorithm to determine model parameters.
- Determine public opinion keywords obtain public opinion data sequences in multiple consecutive time units according to the public opinion keywords, and use the public opinion data in the public opinion data sequence as candidate features to construct a candidate feature set;
- Candidate features are processed by wavelet denoising and detrending; determine the preset number of features, and select the preset number of candidate features from the candidate feature set after wavelet denoising and detrending processing to form a prediction Feature set; training the xgboost prediction model built based on the xgboost algorithm using the predicted feature set and actual observations of the percentage of influenza-like cases in the multiple consecutive time units to determine model parameters.
- the implementation method is as follows: determine a wavelet basis function, perform wavelet decomposition on a sequence formed by each feature in the candidate feature set according to the wavelet basis function, and determine the number of decomposition layers; determine The threshold of wavelet denoising is to adjust the coefficients of each level of the predicted features after wavelet decomposition according to the determined threshold; perform inverse transform reconstruction on the adjusted wavelet coefficients to obtain the candidate features after denoising; for wavelet denoising processing
- Candidate features corresponding to each time unit in the subsequent candidate feature set obtain data of consecutive multiple time units before the time unit and perform linear regression to build a trend prediction model, and obtain the corresponding corresponding time unit according to the trend prediction model.
- Baseline prediction value subtracting the baseline prediction value using the actual value of the candidate feature in this time unit to obtain the candidate feature after detrending.
- a wavelet basis function is determined, and a sequence formed by each feature in the candidate feature set is subjected to wavelet decomposition according to the wavelet basis function, and the number of decomposition layers is determined. For example, wavelet decomposition is performed on the weekly Baidu index formed by the public opinion keyword "high fever". Based on the principle of close to the measured signal waveform, db4 is selected as the wavelet basis function for public opinion data decomposition. In the selection of the decomposition scale, according to the length test of the public opinion data, under different decomposition scales in a certain range, the number of decomposition layers with better denoising effect and lower signal distortion is selected.
- a soft threshold algorithm is used to set the smaller wavelet coefficients to zero and shrink the larger wavelet coefficients toward zero to adjust the coefficients of each level of the candidate feature after decomposition.
- the specific formula is as follows, where w is the value before adjustment Coefficient, d is the adjusted coefficient:
- Inverse transform reconstruction is performed on the adjusted wavelet coefficients to obtain candidate features after denoising.
- linear regression is obtained for data of multiple consecutive time units before the time unit to build a trend prediction model, and the time is obtained according to the trend prediction model.
- the baseline prediction value corresponding to the unit; the actual value of the candidate feature of the time unit is used to subtract the baseline prediction value to obtain the candidate feature after detrending.
- the first 52 weeks of data are taken to perform linear regression to build a trend prediction model. It can be understood that if a The historical data of one data point is less than 52 weeks, then linear regression is used to build a trend prediction model using all historical data. Baseline predicted values of current data points are obtained through the trend prediction model. The baseline predicted value is subtracted from the actual value of the predicted feature of the current point to obtain the predicted feature after detrending.
- the number of different filtering features can be set, the prediction result can be obtained, and the appropriate number of filtering features can be selected according to the accuracy of the prediction result; or, in other embodiments, the number of filtered features You can also use the following methods:
- Use the prediction features in the prediction feature set to train the xgboost prediction model Specifically, obtain the actual observed values of the percentage of influenza-like cases in the consecutive multiple time units, and compare the prediction features obtained in one week with the influenza-like in the next week of the week.
- the case percentage is used as a training sample, and data from multiple consecutive weeks before the current prediction week that reflects the latest trend of influenza changes are selected, for example, data from the first 52 weeks of the current prediction week are used as the training set for rolling prediction.
- gbtree general balanced trees
- a forward distribution algorithm is used to construct a new regression tree to fit the residuals or residuals of the current model, and to optimize the regular term to suppress overfitting and parallelize processing to improve the performance of the algorithm.
- Step S30 Construct an influenza prediction model based on the Kalman filter algorithm according to the ARIMA model and the xgboost prediction model.
- Step S40 Use the first predicted value of the ARIMA model for the target time unit as the measurement value of the state variable, and use the second predicted value of the xgboost prediction model for the target time unit as the prior estimation value of the state variable to calculate the current Kalman gain of the influenza prediction model.
- step S50 the weights of the ARIMA model and the xgboost prediction model in the influenza prediction model are updated according to the calculated Kalman gain, and the updated weight prediction model is used to predict the lower of the target time unit. Percentage of influenza-like cases over a time unit.
- the first predicted value y A output from the ARIMA model for the target time unit K is used as the measured value of the state variable obtained through the measurement equation in the discrete time process, and the second predicted value y x output from the xgboost prediction model for the target time unit K is taken.
- the current predicted Kalman gain is calculated, and the weight of the influenza prediction model obtained by the combination is determined according to the Kalman gain.
- the predicted value of the influenza prediction model can be obtained, that is, the posterior estimate of the state variable in the Kalman filter.
- the expression is:
- K k is the Kalman gain, which is a constant in this embodiment, and the weights of the ARIMA model and the xgboost prediction model are determined in the combined prediction model.
- the covariance of the prior estimation error at time k-1 can be calculated according to the covariance of the posterior estimation error at time k-1.
- A may change with time. It is assumed here that it is constant. In this embodiment, it is set to 1.
- the observed noise covariance R value takes the covariance of the historical prediction error of the xgboost prediction model
- the process excitation noise covariance Q value takes the covariance of the historical prediction error of the ARIMA model.
- k represents the time series number of the current prediction
- k-1 represents the previous time of k.
- the flu prediction process indicates the current week and the previous week.
- the posterior covariance P k-1 of the state at time k-1 is updated, and then the prior covariance at time k is calculated forward. Furthermore, according to the iterative calculation formula of K k in the Kalman filter, the updated Kalman gain K k is obtained , that is, the weight of the model combination. That is to say, after using the two models to obtain the predicted value at time k-1 (the week before the current week), calculate the Kalman gain, that is, to update the weight of the influenza prediction model once, and use the updated influenza prediction.
- the method for generating the influenza prediction model proposed in this embodiment is to obtain the data of the percentage of influenza-like cases in multiple consecutive time units, to establish an autoregressive integral moving average ARIMA model; to obtain public opinion keywords, and to obtain multiple time units according to the public opinion keywords.
- Public opinion data series using public opinion data in public opinion data series as prediction features, training xgboost prediction model based on xgboost algorithm to determine model parameters; according to ARIMA model and xgboost prediction model, construct influenza prediction model based on Kalman filter algorithm ;
- influenza prediction model for influenza prediction the first prediction value of the ARIMA model for the target time unit is used as the measurement value of the state variable, and the second prediction value of the xgboost prediction model for the target time unit is used as the first state variable.
- the Kalman gain of the current influenza prediction model is calculated based on the estimated value; the weights of the two models in the influenza prediction model are updated according to the calculated Kalman gain, and the updated weighted influenza prediction model is used for the next time unit. Percent of influenza-like cases, passed In this way, the dynamic update of the weights of the two models in the influenza prediction model is realized.
- the model fusion based on Kalman filtering takes into account the change law of the time series itself, and combines public opinion data to correct the interference to the series. Make the model prediction more accurate, and by dynamically adjusting the model weights in real time, the combined prediction model can make the current model with better performance output, and improve the accuracy of the prediction model.
- the application also provides a device for generating an influenza prediction model.
- a schematic diagram of an internal structure of an apparatus for generating an influenza prediction model according to an embodiment of the present application is shown.
- the device 1 for generating the influenza prediction model may be a PC (Personal Computer) or a terminal device such as a smart phone, a tablet computer, or a portable computer.
- the apparatus 1 for generating the influenza prediction model includes at least a memory 11, a processor 12, a network interface 13, and a communication bus 14.
- the memory 11 includes at least one type of readable storage medium.
- the readable storage medium includes a flash memory, a hard disk, a multimedia card, a card-type memory (for example, SD or DX memory, etc.), a magnetic memory, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, and the like.
- the memory 11 may be an internal storage unit of the influenza prediction model generating device 1 in some embodiments, such as a hard disk of the influenza prediction model generating device 1.
- the memory 11 may also be an external storage device of the influenza prediction model generating device 1 in other embodiments, for example, a plug-in hard disk and a Smart Memory Card (SMC) provided on the influenza prediction model generating device 1. Secure Digital (SD) card, Flash Card, etc.
- SD Secure Digital
- the memory 11 may include both an internal storage unit and an external storage device of the influenza prediction model generating device 1.
- the memory 11 can be used not only to store application software and various types of data installed in the influenza prediction model generation device 1, such as the code of the model generation program 01, but also to temporarily store data that has been or will be output.
- the processor 12 may be a central processing unit (CPU), a controller, a microcontroller, a microprocessor, or other data processing chip in some embodiments, and is configured to run program codes or processes stored in the memory 11 Data, for example, the model generation program 01 is executed.
- CPU central processing unit
- controller a controller
- microcontroller a microprocessor
- microprocessor or other data processing chip in some embodiments, and is configured to run program codes or processes stored in the memory 11 Data, for example, the model generation program 01 is executed.
- the network interface 13 may optionally include a standard wired interface, a wireless interface (such as a WI-FI interface), and is generally used to establish a communication connection between the device 1 and other electronic devices.
- a standard wired interface such as a WI-FI interface
- the communication bus 14 is used to implement connection communication between these components.
- the device 1 may further include a user interface.
- the user interface may include a display, an input unit such as a keyboard, and the optional user interface may further include a standard wired interface and a wireless interface.
- the display may be an LED display, a liquid crystal display, a touch-type liquid crystal display, an OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode, organic light emitting diode) touch device, or the like.
- the display may also be appropriately referred to as a display screen or a display unit for displaying information processed in the influenza prediction model generating device 1 and for displaying a visualized user interface.
- FIG. 2 only shows an influenza prediction model generating device 1 having components 11-14 and a model generating program 01. Those skilled in the art can understand that the structure shown in FIG. 1 does not constitute an influenza prediction model generating device.
- the definition of 1 may include fewer or more components than shown, or some components may be combined, or different component arrangements.
- a model generating program 01 is stored in the memory 11; when the processor 12 executes the model generating program 01 stored in the memory 11, the following steps are implemented:
- step S10 the data of the percentage of influenza-like cases in multiple consecutive time units are acquired, and an autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA model is established.
- Step S20 Obtain public opinion keywords, obtain public opinion data sequences in the multiple time units according to the public opinion keywords, use the public opinion data in the public opinion data sequence as a prediction feature, and train an xgboost prediction model constructed based on the xgboost algorithm. To determine model parameters.
- the keywords related to the public opinion related to influenza mainly include influenza virus, high fever, cough, nasal congestion, crack, Tylenol, upper respiratory tract infection, cough, influenza A and other keywords; according to the above public opinion keywords from The preset channels obtain public opinion data of the target area to be predicted.
- the preset channels include Baidu Search and Weibo
- the public opinion data mainly includes the Baidu search index of the above public opinion keywords on Baidu, as well as on Weibo. Posts. If a certain area is used as the analysis object, the area is used as the target area, and the Baidu search index and Weibo posting times of public opinion keywords in the area are obtained.
- the week is used as a time unit, and the Baidu search index on Baidu and the number of postings on Weibo for each week in the past 5 years are obtained as public opinion data.
- the public opinion data of the public opinion keyword on a preset channel can form a sequence containing 260 data, each data in the sequence is a candidate feature, and all candidate features constitute a candidate feature set. Use the features in this set to train an xgboost prediction model built on the xgboost algorithm to determine model parameters.
- step S20 may include the following detailed steps:
- Determine public opinion keywords obtain public opinion data sequences in multiple consecutive time units according to the public opinion keywords, and use the public opinion data in the public opinion data sequence as candidate features to construct a candidate feature set;
- Candidate features are processed by wavelet denoising and detrending; determine the preset number of features, and select the preset number of candidate features from the candidate feature set after wavelet denoising and detrending processing to form a prediction Feature set; training the xgboost prediction model built based on the xgboost algorithm using the predicted feature set and actual observations of the percentage of influenza-like cases in the multiple consecutive time units to determine model parameters.
- the wavelet denoising processing and detrending processing are implemented as follows:
- Determine the wavelet basis function perform wavelet decomposition on the sequence formed by each feature in the candidate feature set according to the wavelet basis function, and determine the number of decomposition layers; determine the threshold of wavelet denoising, and decompose the wavelet according to the determined threshold
- the coefficients at each level of the predicted feature are adjusted; the inverse transform reconstruction of the adjusted wavelet coefficients is performed to obtain the candidate features after denoising; the candidate features corresponding to each time unit in the candidate feature set after wavelet denoising are processed
- a wavelet basis function is determined, and a sequence formed by each feature in the candidate feature set is subjected to wavelet decomposition according to the wavelet basis function, and the number of decomposition levels is determined. For example, wavelet decomposition is performed on the weekly Baidu index formed by the public opinion keyword "high fever". Based on the principle of close to the measured signal waveform, db4 is selected as the wavelet basis function for public opinion data decomposition. In the selection of the decomposition scale, according to the length test of the public opinion data, under different decomposition scales in a certain range, the number of decomposition layers with better denoising effect and lower signal distortion is selected.
- a soft threshold algorithm is used to set the smaller wavelet coefficients to zero and shrink the larger wavelet coefficients toward zero to adjust the coefficients of each level of the candidate feature after decomposition.
- the specific formula is as follows, where w is the value before adjustment Coefficient, d is the adjusted coefficient:
- Inverse transform reconstruction is performed on the adjusted wavelet coefficients to obtain candidate features after denoising.
- linear regression is obtained for data of multiple consecutive time units before the time unit to build a trend prediction model, and the time is obtained according to the trend prediction model.
- the baseline prediction value corresponding to the unit; the actual value of the candidate feature of the time unit is used to subtract the baseline prediction value to obtain the candidate feature after detrending.
- the first 52 weeks of data are taken to perform linear regression to build a trend prediction model. It can be understood that if a The historical data of one data point is less than 52 weeks, then linear regression is used to build a trend prediction model using all historical data. Baseline predicted values of current data points are obtained through the trend prediction model. The baseline predicted value is subtracted from the actual value of the predicted feature of the current point to obtain the predicted feature after detrending.
- the number of different filtering features can be set, the prediction result can be obtained, and the appropriate number of filtering features can be selected according to the accuracy of the prediction result; or, in other embodiments, the number of filtered features You can also use the following methods:
- Use the prediction features in the prediction feature set to train the xgboost prediction model Specifically, obtain the actual observed values of the percentage of influenza-like cases in the consecutive multiple time units, and compare the prediction features obtained in one week with the influenza-like in the next week of the week.
- the case percentage is used as a training sample, and data from multiple consecutive weeks before the current prediction week that reflects the latest trend of influenza changes are selected, for example, data from the first 52 weeks of the current prediction week are used as the training set for rolling prediction.
- gbtree general balanced trees
- a forward distribution algorithm is used to construct a new regression tree to fit the residuals or residuals of the current model, and to optimize the regular term to suppress overfitting and parallelize processing to improve the performance of the algorithm.
- an influenza prediction model based on a Kalman filter algorithm is constructed.
- the first predicted value y A output from the ARIMA model for the target time unit K is used as the measured value of the state variable obtained through the measurement equation in the discrete time process, and the second predicted value y x output from the xgboost prediction model for the target time unit K is taken.
- the current predicted Kalman gain is calculated, and the weight of the influenza prediction model obtained by the combination is determined according to the Kalman gain.
- the predicted value of the influenza prediction model can be obtained, that is, the posterior estimate of the state variable in the Kalman filter.
- the expression is:
- K k is the Kalman gain, which is a constant in this embodiment, and the weights of the ARIMA model and the xgboost prediction model are determined in the combined prediction model.
- the covariance of the prior estimation error at time k-1 can be calculated from the covariance of the posterior estimation error at time k-1, where A is the n ⁇ n order gain A matrix that linearly maps the state of k-1 at the previous time to the state of k at the current time.
- A may change with time. It is assumed here that it is constant, and it is set to 1 in this embodiment.
- the observed noise covariance R value takes the covariance of the historical prediction error of the xgboost prediction model
- the process excitation noise covariance Q value takes the covariance of the historical prediction error of the ARIMA model.
- k represents the time series number of the current prediction
- k-1 represents the previous time of k.
- the flu prediction process indicates the current week and the previous week.
- the posterior covariance P k-1 of the state at time k-1 is updated, and then the prior covariance at time k is calculated forward. Furthermore, according to the iterative calculation formula of K k in the Kalman filter, the updated Kalman gain K k is obtained , that is, the weight of the model combination. That is to say, after using the two models to obtain the predicted value at time k-1 (the week before the current week), calculate the Kalman gain, that is, to update the weight of the influenza prediction model once, and use the updated influenza prediction.
- the apparatus for generating an influenza prediction model proposed in this embodiment obtains data on the percentage of influenza-like cases in multiple consecutive time units, and establishes an autoregressive integral moving average ARIMA model; obtains public opinion keywords, and acquires multiple time units according to the public opinion keywords.
- Public opinion data series using public opinion data in public opinion data series as prediction features, training xgboost prediction model based on xgboost algorithm to determine model parameters; according to ARIMA model and xgboost prediction model, construct influenza prediction model based on Kalman filter algorithm ;
- influenza prediction model for influenza prediction the first prediction value of the ARIMA model for the target time unit is used as the measurement value of the state variable, and the second prediction value of the xgboost prediction model for the target time unit is used as the first state variable.
- the Kalman gain of the current influenza prediction model is calculated based on the estimated value; the weights of the two models in the influenza prediction model are updated according to the calculated Kalman gain, and the updated weighted influenza prediction model is used for the next time unit. Percent of influenza-like cases, passed In this way, the dynamic update of the weights of the two models in the influenza prediction model is realized.
- the model fusion based on Kalman filtering takes into account the change law of the time series itself, and combines public opinion data to correct the interference to the series. Make the model prediction more accurate, and by dynamically adjusting the model weights in real time, the combined prediction model can make the current model with better performance output, and improve the accuracy of the prediction model.
- the model generation program may be further divided into one or more modules, and the one or more modules are stored in the memory 11 and are implemented by one or more processors (in this embodiment, The processor 12) executes to complete this application.
- the modules referred to in this application refer to a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions, and are used to describe the execution process of the model generation program in the influenza prediction model generation device.
- FIG. 3 it is a schematic diagram of a program module of a model generating program in an embodiment of an apparatus for generating a flu prediction model of the present application.
- the model generating program may be divided into a first prediction module 10 and a second The prediction module 20, the model combination module 30, the gain calculation module 40, and the model update module 50, for example:
- the first prediction module 10 is configured to: obtain data on the percentage of influenza-like cases in multiple consecutive time units, and establish an autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA model;
- the second prediction module 20 is configured to obtain public opinion keywords, obtain public opinion data sequences in the multiple time units according to the public opinion keywords, use the public opinion data in the public opinion data sequence as a prediction feature, and train an xgboost-based algorithm. Constructed xgboost prediction model to determine model parameters;
- the model combination module 30 is configured to construct an influenza prediction model based on the Kalman filter algorithm according to the ARIMA model and the xgboost prediction model;
- the gain calculation module 40 is configured to: use the first predicted value of the ARIMA model for the target time unit as the measurement value of the state variable, and use the second predicted value of the xgboost prediction model for the target time unit as the prior estimate of the state variable Value to calculate the Kalman gain of the current influenza prediction model;
- the model update module 50 is configured to update the weights of the ARIMA model and the xgboost prediction model in the influenza prediction model according to the calculated Kalman gain, and the influenza prediction model after updating the weights is used to predict the target. Percentage of influenza-like cases in the next time unit of the time unit.
- an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium.
- the computer-readable storage medium stores a model generation program, and the model generation program may be executed by one or more processors to implement the following operations:
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Claims (20)
- 一种流感预测模型的生成方法,其特征在于,所述方法包括:获取连续多个时间单元内的流感样病例百分比数据,建立自回归积分滑动平均ARIMA模型;获取舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取所述多个时间单元内的舆情数据序列,将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为预测特征,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数;根据所述ARIMA模型和所述xgboost预测模型,构建基于卡尔曼滤波算法的流感预测模型;将所述ARIMA模型对目标时间单元的第一预测值作为状态变量的测量值,将所述xgboost预测模型对目标时间单元的第二预测值作为状态变量的先验估计值,计算当前的所述流感预测模型的卡尔曼增益;根据计算得到的卡尔曼增益更新所述流感预测模型中所述ARIMA模型和所述xgboost预测模型的权重,经更新权重后的所述流感预测模型用于预测所述目标时间单元的下一个时间单元的流感样病例百分比。
- 如权利要求1所述的流感预测模型的生成方法,其特征在于,所述确定舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取所述多个时间单元内的舆情数据序列,将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为预测特征,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数的步骤包括:确定舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取连续多个时间单元内的舆情数据序列,并将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为候选特征,构建候选特征集合;对所述候选特征集合中的候选特征进行小波去噪处理和去趋势处理;确定特征的预设数量,并从经过小波去噪处理和去趋势处理后的候选特征集合中筛选出所述预设数量的候选特征,构成预测特征集合;使用所述预测特征集合以及所述多个连续时间单元内的流感样病例百分比的实际观测值,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数。
- 如权利要求2所述的流感预测模型的生成方法,其特征在于,所述对所述候选特征集合中的候选特征进行小波去噪处理和去趋势处理的步骤包括:确定小波基函数,按照所述小波基函数对所述候选特征集合中的每个特征形成的序列进行小波分解,并确定分解层数;确定小波去噪的阈值,按照确定的阈值对小波分解后的预测特征的各层次的系数进行调整;对调整过的小波系数做逆变换重构,得到去噪之后的候选特征;针对小波去噪处理后的候选特征集合中每个时间单元对应的候选特征,获取该时间单元之前的连续多个时间单元的数据进行线性回归,以构建趋势预测模型,根据所述趋势预测模型获取该时间单元对应的基线预测值;使用该时间单元的候选特征的实际值减去所述基线预测值,得到去趋势 之后的候选特征。
- 如权利要求2所述的流感预测模型的生成方法,其特征在于,所述确定特征的预设数量的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,使用特征递归消除交叉验证算法选择模型性能达到预设条件时的特征数量作为所述预设数量。
- 如权利要求3所述的流感预测模型的生成方法,其特征在于,所述确定特征的预设数量的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,使用特征递归消除交叉验证算法选择模型性能达到预设条件时的特征数量作为所述预设数量。
- 如权利要求2所述的流感预测模型的生成方法,其特征在于,所述从经过小波去噪处理和去趋势处理后的候选特征集合中筛选出所述预设数量的候选特征,构成预测特征集合的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,并按照特征递归消除算法进行迭代运算;获取所述学习器经过运算返回的模型系数,根据所述模型系数确定每个候选特征集合中各候选特征的重要程度;根据各候选特征的重要程度从当前的候选特征集合中移除重要程度最小的K个候选特征;重复执行上述步骤,直至筛选得到的候选特征的数量达到所述预设数量;所述预设数量的候选特征构成预测特征集合。
- 如权利要求3所述的流感预测模型的生成方法,其特征在于,所述从经过小波去噪处理和去趋势处理后的候选特征集合中筛选出所述预设数量的候选特征,构成预测特征集合的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,并按照特征递归消除算法进行迭代运算;获取所述学习器经过运算返回的模型系数,根据所述模型系数确定每个候选特征集合中各候选特征的重要程度;根据各候选特征的重要程度从当前的候选特征集合中移除重要程度最小的K个候选特征;重复执行上述步骤,直至筛选得到的候选特征的数量达到所述预设数量;所述预设数量的候选特征构成预测特征集合。
- 一种流感预测模型的生成装置,其特征在于,所述装置包括存储器和处理器,所述存储器上存储有可在所述处理器上运行的模型生成程序,所述模型生成程序被所述处理器执行时实现如下步骤:获取连续多个时间单元内的流感样病例百分比数据,建立自回归积分滑动平均ARIMA模型;获取舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取所述多个时间单元内的舆情 数据序列,将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为预测特征,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数;根据所述ARIMA模型和所述xgboost预测模型,构建基于卡尔曼滤波算法的流感预测模型;将所述ARIMA模型对目标时间单元的第一预测值作为状态变量的测量值,将所述xgboost预测模型对目标时间单元的第二预测值作为状态变量的先验估计值,计算当前的所述流感预测模型的卡尔曼增益;根据计算得到的卡尔曼增益更新所述流感预测模型中所述ARIMA模型和所述xgboost预测模型的权重,经更新权重后的所述流感预测模型用于预测所述目标时间单元的下一个时间单元的流感样病例百分比。
- 如权利要求8所述的流感预测模型的生成装置,其特征在于,所述确定舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取所述多个时间单元内的舆情数据序列,将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为预测特征,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数的步骤包括:确定舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取连续多个时间单元内的舆情数据序列,并将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为候选特征,构建候选特征集合;对所述候选特征集合中的候选特征进行小波去噪处理和去趋势处理;确定特征的预设数量,并从经过小波去噪处理和去趋势处理后的候选特征集合中筛选出所述预设数量的候选特征,构成预测特征集合;使用所述预测特征集合以及所述多个连续时间单元内的流感样病例百分比的实际观测值,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数。
- 如权利要求9所述的流感预测模型的生成装置,其特征在于,所述对所述候选特征集合中的候选特征进行小波去噪处理和去趋势处理的步骤包括:确定小波基函数,按照所述小波基函数对所述候选特征集合中的每个特征形成的序列进行小波分解,并确定分解层数;确定小波去噪的阈值,按照确定的阈值对小波分解后的预测特征的各层次的系数进行调整;对调整过的小波系数做逆变换重构,得到去噪之后的候选特征;针对小波去噪处理后的候选特征集合中每个时间单元对应的候选特征,获取该时间单元之前的连续多个时间单元的数据进行线性回归,以构建趋势预测模型,根据所述趋势预测模型获取该时间单元对应的基线预测值;使用该时间单元的候选特征的实际值减去所述基线预测值,得到去趋势之后的候选特征。
- 如权利要求9所述的流感预测模型的生成装置,其特征在于,所述确定特征的预设数量的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特 征输入所述学习器,使用特征递归消除交叉验证算法选择模型性能达到预设条件时的特征数量作为所述预设数量。
- 如权利要求10所述的流感预测模型的生成装置,其特征在于,所述确定特征的预设数量的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,使用特征递归消除交叉验证算法选择模型性能达到预设条件时的特征数量作为所述预设数量。
- 如权利要求9所述的流感预测模型的生成装置,其特征在于,所述从经过小波去噪处理和去趋势处理后的候选特征集合中筛选出所述预设数量的候选特征,构成预测特征集合的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,并按照特征递归消除算法进行迭代运算;获取所述学习器经过运算返回的模型系数,根据所述模型系数确定每个候选特征集合中各候选特征的重要程度;根据各候选特征的重要程度从当前的候选特征集合中移除重要程度最小的K个候选特征;重复执行上述步骤,直至筛选得到的候选特征的数量达到所述预设数量;所述预设数量的候选特征构成预测特征集合。
- 如权利要求10所述的流感预测模型的生成装置,其特征在于,所述从经过小波去噪处理和去趋势处理后的候选特征集合中筛选出所述预设数量的候选特征,构成预测特征集合的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,并按照特征递归消除算法进行迭代运算;获取所述学习器经过运算返回的模型系数,根据所述模型系数确定每个候选特征集合中各候选特征的重要程度;根据各候选特征的重要程度从当前的候选特征集合中移除重要程度最小的K个候选特征;重复执行上述步骤,直至筛选得到的候选特征的数量达到所述预设数量;所述预设数量的候选特征构成预测特征集合。
- 一种计算机可读存储介质,其特征在于,所述计算机可读存储介质上存储有模型生成程序,所述模型生成程序可被一个或者多个处理器执行,以实现如下步骤:获取连续多个时间单元内的流感样病例百分比数据,建立自回归积分滑动平均ARIMA模型;获取舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取所述多个时间单元内的舆情数据序列,将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为预测特征,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数;根据所述ARIMA模型和所述xgboost预测模型,构建基于卡尔曼滤波算法的流感预测模型;将所述ARIMA模型对目标时间单元的第一预测值作为状态变量的测量值,将所述xgboost预测模型对目标时间单元的第二预测值作为状态变量的先验估计值,计算当前的所述流感预测模型的卡尔曼增益;根据计算得到的卡尔曼增益更新所述流感预测模型中所述ARIMA模型和所述xgboost预测模型的权重,经更新权重后的所述流感预测模型用于预测所述目标时间单元的下一个时间单元的流感样病例百分比。
- 如权利要求15所述的计算机可读存储介质,其特征在于,所述确定舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取所述多个时间单元内的舆情数据序列,将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为预测特征,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数的步骤包括:确定舆情关键词,根据所述舆情关键词获取连续多个时间单元内的舆情数据序列,并将所述舆情数据序列中的舆情数据作为候选特征,构建候选特征集合;对所述候选特征集合中的候选特征进行小波去噪处理和去趋势处理;确定特征的预设数量,并从经过小波去噪处理和去趋势处理后的候选特征集合中筛选出所述预设数量的候选特征,构成预测特征集合;使用所述预测特征集合以及所述多个连续时间单元内的流感样病例百分比的实际观测值,训练基于xgboost算法构建的xgboost预测模型,以确定模型参数。
- 如权利要求16所述的计算机可读存储介质,其特征在于,所述对所述候选特征集合中的候选特征进行小波去噪处理和去趋势处理的步骤包括:确定小波基函数,按照所述小波基函数对所述候选特征集合中的每个特征形成的序列进行小波分解,并确定分解层数;确定小波去噪的阈值,按照确定的阈值对小波分解后的预测特征的各层次的系数进行调整;对调整过的小波系数做逆变换重构,得到去噪之后的候选特征;针对小波去噪处理后的候选特征集合中每个时间单元对应的候选特征,获取该时间单元之前的连续多个时间单元的数据进行线性回归,以构建趋势预测模型,根据所述趋势预测模型获取该时间单元对应的基线预测值;使用该时间单元的候选特征的实际值减去所述基线预测值,得到去趋势之后的候选特征。
- 如权利要求16所述的计算机可读存储介质,其特征在于,所述确定特征的预设数量的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,使用特征递归消除交叉验证算法选择模型性能达到预设条件时的特征数量作为所述预设数量。
- 如权利要求17所述的计算机可读存储介质,其特征在于,所述确定特征的预设数量的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特 征输入所述学习器,使用特征递归消除交叉验证算法选择模型性能达到预设条件时的特征数量作为所述预设数量。
- 如权利要求16所述的计算机可读存储介质,其特征在于,所述从经过小波去噪处理和去趋势处理后的候选特征集合中筛选出所述预设数量的候选特征,构成预测特征集合的步骤包括:基于xgboost算法构建模型作为学习器,将所述候选特征集合中的候选特征输入所述学习器,并按照特征递归消除算法进行迭代运算;获取所述学习器经过运算返回的模型系数,根据所述模型系数确定每个候选特征集合中各候选特征的重要程度;根据各候选特征的重要程度从当前的候选特征集合中移除重要程度最小的K个候选特征;重复执行上述步骤,直至筛选得到的候选特征的数量达到所述预设数量;所述预设数量的候选特征构成预测特征集合。
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