WO2017017744A1

WO2017017744A1 - Facility planning device for heat and power facilities, and facility planning method for heat and power facilities

Info

Publication number: WO2017017744A1
Application number: PCT/JP2015/071181
Authority: WO
Inventors: 亮介中村; 勉河村; 薫川端
Original assignee: 株式会社日立製作所
Priority date: 2015-07-27
Filing date: 2015-07-27
Publication date: 2017-02-02

Abstract

The purpose of the present invention is to create a facility plan for heat and power facilities forming an energy network, wherein the arrangement and location of the heat and power facilities are also determined by taking into account the power required to circulate the heating medium. The present invention is characterized by being provided with: a heat and power demand prediction unit which calculates a plurality of predicted values of the heat and power demands by consumers and probabilities of the plurality of predicted values of the heat and power demands, on the basis of consumer information; a facility configuration/arrangement plan calculation unit which generates groups of facility configuration/arrangement plans by using the plurality of predicted values of the heat and power demands, heat and power facility group information, which groups together heat and power facilities serving as candidates to be arranged, arrangement candidate setting information relating to the arrangement of the heat and power facilities, and circulation power information indicating information relating to both the pressure loss of the heat supply piping and the pumping power required to accommodate the pressure loss and thereby circulate the heating medium; and an expected cost value evaluation unit which determines a final facility configuration/arrangement plan by using both the groups of facility configuration/arrangement plans, which are generated based on the plurality of predicted values of the heat and power demands, and the probabilities of the plurality of predicted values of the heat and power demands. Thus, the present invention makes it possible to create a facility plan for heat and power facilities forming an energy network, wherein the arrangement and location of heat source facilities are also optimized at the same time by taking into account the power required to circulate the heating medium.

Description

Facility planning apparatus for thermoelectric facility and facility planning method for thermoelectric facility

The present invention relates to a facility planning apparatus for a thermoelectric facility and a facility plan planning method for a thermoelectric facility.

As a thermoelectric facility facility planning apparatus relating to the present invention, there is a technology described in Japanese Patent No. 5271162 PR (Patent Document 1) IV. In this publication, “an equipment plan creation device for creating an equipment plan in an energy system including an energy load, an energy generation device, and an energy storage device, For the operation plan, the value of the specified evaluation function is calculated for each of the plurality of demand scenarios for which the energy demand due to the energy load is estimated, and the calculated evaluation function value and the occurrence probability of each of the plurality of demand scenarios. The equipment plan creation device performs these multiple times and outputs the equipment plan with the best evaluation value among the equipment plans created multiple times. There is a description.

Japanese Patent No.5271162

Energy network aims to save energy in the entire region by distributing and connecting multiple power generation / storage facilities including natural energy and heat source facilities such as refrigerators in the region. For this reason, various facilities in the energy network exist at positions separated from each other, but for the heat supply by the heat source facility, conveyance power corresponding to the distance is required. Therefore, when planning the layout of equipment in the energy network, it is necessary to make a plan that reduces the transport power by performing optimization including the layout.

In Patent Document 1, energy demand is predicted by cluster analysis, a combination of an energy generation device and an energy storage device for each demand scenario is selected by a metaheuristics method, and the facility is calculated based on an expected value using the occurrence probability of each demand scenario. It describes how to create a plan. However, it does not mention how to determine the arrangement.

Therefore, an object of the present invention is to devise a facility plan for a thermoelectric facility that simultaneously determines the arrangement position of the heat source facility in consideration of the conveyance power of the heat medium for the energy network.

In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, a thermoelectric facility facility planning apparatus according to the present invention includes a thermoelectric demand prediction unit that derives a consumer's thermoelectric demand prediction value and a thermoelectric demand prediction probability from customer information, and the thermoelectric demand prediction value. And thermoelectric equipment collective information that summarizes the installation candidate thermoelectric equipment, placement candidate setting information related to the placement of thermoelectric equipment, and conveyance power information that specifies information about pressure loss of the heat interchange piping and the resulting pump conveyance power A facility configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit for generating a facility configuration / arrangement plan group, a facility configuration / arrangement plan group created for a plurality of the thermoelectric demand prediction values, and the thermoelectric demand prediction probability. And an expected cost evaluation unit for determining a final equipment configuration / arrangement plan.

According to the present invention, it is possible to devise a facility plan for a thermoelectric facility that simultaneously optimizes the arrangement position of the heat source facility in consideration of the conveyance power of the heat medium for the energy network.

1 is a configuration diagram of a thermoelectric facility facility planning apparatus 101 in Embodiment 1. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the processing of a thermoelectric facility equipment planning apparatus 101. It is an example of the cold / heat demand calculated | required by the thermoelectric demand prediction part 105. FIG. It is an example of the prediction probability of the thermoelectric demand obtained by the thermoelectric demand prediction unit 105. It is an example of the thermoelectric installation energy consumption characteristic. It is an example of the pressure loss characteristic of the heat medium derived | led-out for every accommodation piping. It is an example of the connection information between piping. It is an example of the table | surface which shows the generation | occurrence | production probability of the demand prediction for every equipment structure and arrangement plan, and its cost. FIG. 5 is a configuration diagram of a thermoelectric facility facility planning apparatus 101 according to a second embodiment. 7 is a flowchart showing processing of a computing facility configuration / arrangement plan computation control unit 901 and a single time problem computation unit 902.

The present invention relates to a facility planning apparatus for a thermoelectric facility that determines a combination of thermoelectric facilities for supplying thermoelectric to consumers. Hereinafter, examples will be described with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a thermoelectric facility facility planning apparatus 101 according to the present embodiment. This equipment planning device 101 summarizes the thermoelectric demand forecasting unit 105 that derives the thermoelectric demand forecast value 102 and the thermoelectric demand forecast probability 103 of the customer from the customer information 104, the thermoelectric demand forecast 102, and the thermoelectric equipment that is a candidate for installation. Facility configuration / location plan using thermoelectric facility set information 106, placement candidate setting information 107 related to the placement of thermoelectric facilities, and transport power information 108 that specifies information related to pressure loss in the heat exchange pipes and the pump transport power caused thereby. Using the equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit 109, the equipment configuration / arrangement plan group 110 created for a plurality of thermoelectric demand forecasts 102, the thermoelectric demand forecast value 102, and the thermoelectric demand forecast probability 103. An expected cost evaluation unit 111 that determines a final equipment configuration / arrangement plan 112 is configured.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the processing of the thermoelectric equipment facility planning apparatus 101 of the present embodiment. First, using the customer information, the prediction of the thermoelectric demand and the probability that the demand will occur are obtained (201). Next, an equipment configuration / arrangement plan and its cost are obtained by using the thermoelectric demand prediction, the information on the installation candidate thermoelectric equipment, the information on the equipment arrangement candidate, and the information on the piping loss and the pump power (202). Next, it is determined whether the facility planning has been completed for all demand forecasts (203), and if it is completed, the cost of the obtained facility configuration / arrangement plan is calculated based on each thermoelectric demand. A cost expectation value using the occurrence probability is derived (204). Next, an equipment configuration / arrangement plan is selected using the expected cost value (205).

Next, each element shown in the configuration diagram will be described in detail.

The thermoelectric demand forecasting unit 105 obtains the forecast of the thermoelectric demand several years later and the probability required for making the equipment plan. For example, if the demand is predicted to be cold, it is given to the target year like the heat load shown in FIG. 301 represents summer heat demand, 302 represents mid-term heat demand, and 303 represents winter heat demand. In the present embodiment, these three are used, but in order to increase the accuracy, the month of January to December may be designated. On the other hand, the probability of thermoelectric demand gives the probability that the predicted demand will occur for a certain year as shown in FIG. In addition, heat and power are given in the same format.

The thermoelectric equipment collective information 106 is information on the capacity of various outputs such as chilled water output, hot water output, power generation amount, and energy consumption characteristics (example of water-cooled chiller) as shown in FIG. And information on the costs of installing the equipment. The energy consumption characteristics are shown in Fig. 5. In addition to the power consumption with respect to the load factor (= output / rated output), the gas consumption with respect to the load factor in the case of gas-using equipment, Represents consumption. Similarly, a facility that consumes two types of energy sources such as exhaust heat and gas / steam, such as an exhaust heat utilization absorption refrigerator, similarly uses the characteristics shown in FIG. When using mixed integer linear programming for the purpose of fast solution, piecewise linear approximation as shown in 501, 502, 503 is used. When there are a plurality of water-cooled chillers with power consumption characteristics as shown in FIG.

E represents total power consumption, k represents the number of heat source equipment (chiller), and t represents time. The subscript m represents the section number of the piecewise linear approximation when considering the characteristics of a certain equipment k, and is used to derive the power of one heat source equipment by taking the sum. x is the load factor, z is the selected variable of the section, and a and b are input parameters that vary depending on the characteristics of the heat source equipment.

Subsequently, the conveyance power information 108 includes information on heat medium pressure loss, information on power consumption of the pump generated thereby, and connection information between pipes. The first pressure loss information is derived for each interchangeable pipe, for example, using the following Hazen-Williams equation (Equation 2) to give the pressure loss of the heat medium in the heat interchangeable pipe. Give information about the characteristics as shown.

Here, ΔP is a differential pressure in each pipe, p is a pipe number, c is a flow velocity count, d is a pipe diameter, L is a pipe length, and β is a coefficient for unit adjustment. Note that there are a plurality of types of expressions representing the pressure loss depending on the approximation method, and the expression is not limited to Equation 2, and other expressions may be used. Here, since the flow direction may be reversed, one of the flows is considered as positive. In order to treat this curve as a characteristic as it is, the parameter of Equation 2 may be input as it is, but when mixed integer linear programming is used, the proportionality of the piecewise approximate straight line as shown in Fig. 6 is used as well as the characteristic of the equipment. Coefficients and intercepts are input. In addition, when performing polynomial approximation such as a quadratic function at intervals, the coefficient may be given as information.

Conveyance power information The information on the power consumption of the second pump represents the power consumption characteristics of the pump shown in Equation 3.

Where g is the total power consumption of the pump, ρ is the density of the heat medium, n is the pump number, η is the pump efficiency, w _n is the flow rate of the heat medium flowing through the pump, H is the pump head, α is the unit conversion factor Represents. Note that this formula is not limited to this, and other formulas such as an approximation as a cubic function considering the inverter characteristics may be used. As specific information, as in the case of Equation 1, linearly approximated proportional coefficient / intercept when using mixed integer linear programming, or Equation 2 parameter, or a coefficient that approximates it with other functions .

The connection information between the third pipes of the conveyance power information is information representing the connection of the main heat exchange conduits as shown in FIG. Here, reference numerals 701 to 709 are nodes of the pipe network, and simply represent the branch points of the pipes or the locations where the heat source / heat demand exists. The connection information is a matrix in which the pipe number and the node number are subscripts. The pipe network is described by placing 1 when the pipe and the node are connected and 0 otherwise. In addition, this piping network produces the same thing about each of cold water, warm water, and exhaust heat, and uses it separately.

Next, the placement candidate setting information 107 is information for designating at which point the thermoelectric equipment can be installed at the nodes of the piping network shown in FIG.

Subsequently, details of the equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit 109 that generates the equipment configuration / arrangement plan group 110 using the various information will be described below. In the equipment configuration / arrangement plan group 110, the sum of the introduction cost and the operation cost is calculated as an objective function (Equation 4), and an optimal calculation is performed to reduce this.

Here, Jope represents the operation cost and Jinst represents the introduction cost. The operating cost is calculated by multiplying the energy consumption of the thermoelectric equipment shown in Equation 1 (gas and electricity excluding intermediate energy such as steam and exhaust heat) and the electricity consumption of the pump shown in Equation 3 by the unit price of gas and electricity. It is given as the sum of the sums. On the other hand, the introduction cost is given by (introduction cost) × δ using the 0-1 variable δ shown in Formula 5 indicating whether or not the installation candidate facility is used.

Here, k is the number of the installation candidate equipment, s is the number representing each node, and t is the time. The number s representing each node is used to represent the driving of the heat source facility at that location. In the case of this formulation, a certain equipment k is an expression that can introduce the same equipment k at different points s. However, when all equipment is limited to one unit, it is a restriction condition. The condition is specified by adding a condition that the sum of δ with respect to s is 1 or less.

Since conditional branching cannot be performed as it is, it is used for optimization as a constraint condition after rewriting using an indicator variable.

Other restrictions include (demand) = (supply) restrictions at each point of 701 to 709, such as steam generated in the boiler at each point shown in Fig. 7 being consumed by the steam absorption refrigerator on the spot. There is. On the other hand, the following equation 6 is established as a constraint equation of (demand) = (supply) for those where there is interchange between points through the heat accommodation conduit shown in FIG.

Where s is the number of the target node, p is the pipe number, t is the time, wp is the heat flow flowing from the pipe p to the node s, wd is the heat flow required by the supply area connected to the node s, wg is a heat flow rate supplied from the heat source plant connected to the node s. These hold for each of hot water, cold water and waste water. The heat flow required by each point corresponds to the thermoelectric demand prediction value 102 given by the thermoelectric demand prediction unit 105. The thermoelectric demand forecast value 102 is given for the target year, but to create a load that increases in magnitude every few years from the current heat demand in order to assume annual demand changes, it is connected With one demand, a highly accurate solution over multiple years can be obtained. However, as the target time width for optimization increases, the computation time increases rapidly due to the increase in variables. Therefore, a load of every 10 years or every 5 years may be used in consideration of the computation time.

Other than that, an equal pressure condition is given in which the pressure at each node is equal at that point according to the equation of the pipe pressure loss of equation (2). In addition, the Q-H (flow-head) characteristic of the pump is given as a constraint for deriving the energy consumption of the pump of Formula 3 by combining the pressure by the pump and its flow rate.

Using these constraint equations, the variables indicating whether or not to install each heat source facility, the start / stop variable and load factor of the heat source facility, and the heat medium flow rate (including the pressure in the piping) in each piping are specified as optimization variables. As a result, it is obtained as a solution where the equipment is arranged at each node in FIG. By performing this calculation on a plurality of thermoelectric demand prediction values, the facility configuration / cascade arrangement plan group 110 is created.

Finally, the expected cost evaluation unit 111 selects a plan from the obtained equipment configuration / arrangement plan group 110. Since the solution of the equipment configuration / location plan group 110 is a plan corresponding to each demand forecast and only the cost for that forecast is obtained, the total cost is calculated for other demand forecasts as shown in FIG. . For this purpose, the operation cost is calculated using the thermoelectric demand forecast value 102 and added to the introduction cost. As for the operation cost, the optimization calculation as performed by the equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit 109 for the set for which the cost of the heat demand prediction value 102 and the equipment configuration / arrangement plan group 110 is not derived ( The arrangement may be fixed) or may be obtained by forward calculation as priority operation in order to reduce the calculation load. Finally, from FIG. 8, the expected value of the total cost of each equipment configuration / arrangement plan group is derived, and the lowest cost among them is selected and output as the final equipment configuration / arrangement plan 112.

As described above, it is possible to devise a facility plan for a thermoelectric facility that simultaneously determines the position of the heat source facility in consideration of the conveyance power of the heat medium.

Hereinafter, Example 2 will be described with reference to FIG. In the first embodiment, the equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit 109 performs optimization over the entire time using various information such as the thermoelectric demand forecast value 102, but in that case, the number of variables increases, and the solution is solved in a practical time. May not be obtained. Therefore, the calculation load is reduced by the configuration of the thermoelectric facility facility planning apparatus 101 in the second embodiment. As a difference in configuration, the equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit 109 is divided into two, an arithmetic equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation control unit 901 and a single time problem calculation unit 902. The process flow for deriving the equipment configuration / arrangement plan group 110 in this case will be described with reference to the process flow of FIG. The overall flow of the equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit 109 is the same as the flow of FIG. 2, and step 202 replaces the flow of FIG. First, the facility configuration / arrangement plan calculation control unit 901 divides the thermoelectric demand predicted value 102 into each time section, and calculates an operation plan and an arrangement plan using the single time problem calculation unit 902 respectively (901). Next, with respect to the solution of the set of the obtained equipment and its arrangement position, the equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation control unit 901 that satisfies the maximum value of the thermoelectric demand forecast value 102 and has the longest operation time ( 902). Next, the operation cost over the entire time is recalculated for the set of facilities / positions obtained by the facility configuration / arrangement plan calculation control unit 901, and the total cost is derived by adding the introduction costs (903). Subsequently, it is calculated whether or not the number of excluded equipment reaches a specified value for the loop operation in which all the equipment candidates are sequentially excluded from the candidates with the highest introduction cost and the above-described operation is performed (904). In the case of NO, the candidate with the highest introduction cost is removed from all the equipment candidates (905), and the calculation of 901 is performed again. If YES, exit the loop and use the calculation results so far, and output the candidate equipment with the lowest total cost and its location as a solution (906).

Subsequent calculations are performed in the same manner as in the first embodiment. With the above processing, it is possible to make a facility plan for a thermoelectric facility that reduces the calculation load and simultaneously determines the location of the heat source facility.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 101 ... Equipment planning apparatus of thermoelectric equipment of this invention, 102 ... Thermoelectric demand forecast value, 103 ... Thermoelectric demand forecast probability, 104 ... Consumer information, 105 ... Thermoelectric demand forecast part, 106 ... Thermoelectric equipment aggregate information, 107 ... Arrangement Candidate setting information, 108 ... Transport power information, 109 ... Equipment configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit, 110 ... Equipment configuration / arrangement plan group, 111 ... Estimated cost evaluation unit

Claims

In the equipment planning system for thermoelectric equipment that determines the combination of thermoelectric equipment at the time of equipment introduction for the energy network,
A thermoelectric demand forecasting unit that derives the thermoelectric demand forecast value and the thermoelectric demand forecast probability of the consumer from the customer information;
Transport specifying the thermoelectric demand forecast value, thermoelectric facility collective information that summarizes the thermoelectric facilities that are candidates for installation, placement candidate setting information related to the placement of thermoelectric facilities, pressure loss of heat interchange piping, and information related to the pump transport power caused thereby A facility configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit that generates a facility configuration / arrangement plan group using power information,
A facility configuration / arrangement plan group created for a plurality of the thermoelectric demand forecast values and a cost expectation value evaluation unit that determines a final equipment configuration / arrangement plan using the thermoelectric demand forecast probability An equipment planning device for thermoelectric equipment.
In the thermoelectric facility facility planning apparatus according to claim 1,
A facility planning apparatus for a thermoelectric facility, characterized in that the transfer power information for designating information related to pressure loss in heat interchangeable piping and pump transfer power resulting from the pressure loss is given by a piecewise linear approximation coefficient.
In the thermoelectric equipment facility planning apparatus according to claim 2,
The facility configuration / arrangement plan calculation unit is a single-time problem calculation unit that calculates an operating cost for each time section of demand prediction, and an arithmetic facility configuration / location plan calculation control unit that uses the solution to determine the facility configuration / location plan An equipment planning device for thermoelectric equipment, characterized by comprising:
In the thermoelectric equipment facility planning method that determines the combination of thermoelectric equipment at the time of equipment introduction for the energy network,
Deriving the thermoelectric demand forecast value and the thermoelectric demand forecast probability from the customer information,
Transport specifying the thermoelectric demand forecast value, thermoelectric facility collective information that summarizes the thermoelectric facilities that are candidates for installation, placement candidate setting information related to the placement of thermoelectric facilities, pressure loss of heat interchange piping, and information related to the pump transport power caused thereby Using the power information, generate the equipment configuration / arrangement plan group,
A facility of a thermoelectric facility, wherein a final facility configuration / arrangement plan is determined using the facility configuration / arrangement plan group created for a plurality of thermoelectric demand predictions and the thermoelectric demand prediction probability Planning method.