WO2015102669A1 - Outil de structure de décision et procédé de planification et d'exécution de projets industriels à base de chaîne de décision systématique - Google Patents

Outil de structure de décision et procédé de planification et d'exécution de projets industriels à base de chaîne de décision systématique Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2015102669A1
WO2015102669A1 PCT/US2014/046064 US2014046064W WO2015102669A1 WO 2015102669 A1 WO2015102669 A1 WO 2015102669A1 US 2014046064 W US2014046064 W US 2014046064W WO 2015102669 A1 WO2015102669 A1 WO 2015102669A1
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WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
project
kpis
decision
decisions
chain
Prior art date
Application number
PCT/US2014/046064
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English (en)
Inventor
Johannes Gerardus Maria RAVEN
Jurgen GRÖTSCH
Christoph Clemens Ramshorn
Original Assignee
Shell Oil Company
Shell Internationale Research Maatschappij B.V.
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
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Publication date
Application filed by Shell Oil Company, Shell Internationale Research Maatschappij B.V. filed Critical Shell Oil Company
Publication of WO2015102669A1 publication Critical patent/WO2015102669A1/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0631—Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/02—Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining

Definitions

  • the invention relates to a decision framework tool and method for systematic decision chain based planning and execution of hydrocarbon fluid production and/or other
  • Actenum Corporation offers a tool suite known as
  • the DSO/Upstream tool suite provides "what if" evaluations for selection of optimal options and a consolidated operational model that provides comprehensive lease, equipment and activity information, which allows optimizing field and well delivery.
  • US patent application US20070179742 discloses a method for assessment of uncertainty and risk.
  • US patent application US20090076873 discloses a method for improved engineered system decisions, such as oil well drilling decisions, and transfer risk.
  • US8306842 discloses a project planning and management tool for creating and tracking of Authorization For Expense (AFE) project information.
  • US patent application US20130117066 discloses a decision support method for project management of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant.
  • LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
  • KPIs Performance Indicators
  • KPIs Key Performance Indicators
  • the commercial KPIs may comprise indications of envisaged cashflow and capital and operating cost throughout a lifecycle of the project, and the uncertainty range for each KPI may be shown as a range with a minimum, mean and maximum values of each commercial KPI.
  • KPIs Key Performance Indicators
  • the Key Performance Indicators may furthermore comprise technical and HSE related KPIs and the project may be executed if all KPIs and potential uncertainty ranges of all KPIs indicate that the project is viable from economical, cost, technical and HSE related perspectives.
  • the decision framework tool may furthermore comprise an interactive roadmap for taking the chain of decisions and the method may further comprise providing the roadmap with a time and work schedule, targets, milestones and key deliverables for the chain of decisions and/or for the selection, design and/or development, construction and deployment of the at least partially interdependent options and progress of the project may be monitored against these targets, milestones and key deliverables .
  • the dashboard may further display a risk register that shows for one or more of the options and/or decisions
  • the project may be a project for the production of crude oil and/or natural gas from an onshore or offshore crude oil and/or natural gas containing formation and the chain of decisions may include selection of:
  • a decision framework tool for systematic decision chain based planning and execution of an industrial project comprising:
  • KPIs Key Performance Indicators
  • the decision framework tool may further comprise a computer readable medium, which comprises the database and, when connected to a computer, causes the computer to perform the method according to the present invention.
  • Figure 1 schematically depicts how hydrocarbon fluid production and other industrial projects may be systematically planned and executed using the decision framework tool and method according to the invention
  • Figure 2 is a schematic flowscheme that shows how a project is systematically planned and executed using the decision framework tool suite according to the invention.
  • Figure 3 depicts a dashboard of the decision framework tool according to the invention that shows decisions regarding selected options, economic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and associated KPI uncertainty ranges.
  • KPIs Key Performance Indicators
  • Figure 1 depicts how hydrocarbon fluid production and other industrial projects may be systematically planned and executed using the Decision Framework Tool (DFT) according to the invention.
  • DFT Decision Framework Tool
  • DFT Hydrocarbon Framework Tool
  • the upper central region A of Figure 1 depicts how a business opportunity is converted into a project that requires taking a chain of decisions of at least partially
  • the left hand region C depicts planning activities associated with the project that include technical Analysis Modeling Studies, which include studies in the Subsurface,
  • the central bottom region D shows how the Hydrocarbon Development Planning (HDP) tool suite according to the
  • invention provides a systematic repository for the project planning and execution, including systematic reporting of sensitivity analysis and of project audit trails and content management .
  • the right hand region D shows that the HDP tool suite furthermore systematically displays economic KPIs and
  • FIG. 2 is a schematic flowscheme that depicts key features of the Hydrocarbon Development Planning (HDP) tool suite according to the invention.
  • HDP Hydrocarbon Development Planning
  • the flowscheme comprises seven subsections that are labeled at the left hand side of Figure 2 by the keywords Activities, Subsurface, Wells, Surface, Development Planning, Key Deliverables and Milestones.
  • Subsurface, Wells and Development Planning are encircled since these items involve a chain of interactive activities and decisions with a technical focus and that are of a technical nature and are therefore within the scope of the present invention.
  • the Subsurface domain involves a chain of technically focused workflows and interactive decisions regarding selection of a subsurface reservoir simulation model, such as GEOSIGNS (GEOSIGNS is a trademark of Shell Trademark Management B.V.), selection of a production simulation, stimulation and/or optimization model, such as the FIELD ARE Production Universe (FIELDWARE is a trademark of Shell Trademark Management B.V.) suite of technologies that are described in US patents
  • GEOSIGNS is a trademark of Shell Trademark Management B.V.
  • FIELD ARE Production Universe FIELDWARE is a trademark of Shell Trademark Management B.V.
  • the items listed in the Subsurface domain indicate that calculations and simulations with the selected reservoir simulation model or models will indicate whether the available exploration and geological data are adequate or whether further exploration activities, such as seismic, electromagnetic, bottom sampling and/or other surveys are required to adequately map the subsurface hydrocarbon fluid deposit and the
  • the production mechanism may involve waterflooding and/or injection of steam and/or chemicals, artificial lift and/or other Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques, sand control if the reservoir formation is prone to erosion by the initiated fluid flux, application of smart well technologies to monitor and/or control the fluid flux in various sections of the wellbores and surrounding reservoir formation.
  • EOR Enhanced Oil Recovery
  • Calculations and simulations with the selected reservoir and production simulation models will generate a selection of the type, position, orientation and amount of hydrocarbon fluid production wells that is required to lift the hydrocarbon fluids from the reservoir formation to the earth surface.
  • the Hydrocarbon Development Planning (HDP ) tool suite allows to calculate and simulate various alternative interdependent technical options in the Subsurface, Wells and Surface domains and to subsequently assess the technical and economic viability thereof as
  • Figure 3 depicts a dashboard of the Hydrocarbon
  • HDP Development Planning
  • the HDP dashboard shows at the left side a range of available concepts and options in the Subsurface, Wells and Surface domains and shows at the right side a range of economic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and associated uncertainty ranges that are calculated and assessed using the HDP toolsuite according to the invention for the options shown at the left side of Figure 3.
  • KPIs Key Performance Indicators
  • the HDP dashboard shown in Figure 3 displays for the selected options commercial KPIs that indicate of envisaged Ultimate Recovery (UR) of the hydrocarbon fluid, envisaged cashflow and capital and operating cost throughout the
  • KPIs Key Performance Indicators
  • associated uncertainties displayed at the HDP dashboard allow taking rational decisions to commence, interrupt, modify and/or execute and to only execute the hydrocarbon fluid production project if the commercial KPIs and potential uncertainty ranges of these commercial KPIs indicate that throughout these potential uncertainty ranges execution of the hydrocarbon fluid production project remains economically viable.
  • HDP tool suite provides an integrated web based workflow software tool which can be used for opportunity framing, decision framework setup, risk management, decision analysis, project roadmap setup and reporting, uncertainty management and scenario management aiming at improving decision making within complex projects.
  • HDP TS also links to decision framework modelling tools available from 3 rd parties, such as proprietary tools (GDPT, UPAT) or a Petro VR based dashboard from Caesar Systems, to allow for quantitative value and risk assessment via 3 rd parties, such as proprietary tools (GDPT, UPAT) or a Petro VR based dashboard from Caesar Systems, to allow for quantitative value and risk assessment via
  • DFT Decision Framework Tool
  • HDP Tool Suite allows to address improving decision quality for industrial projects by integrating workflows from opportunity framing to decision making throughout different life cycle stages of an industrial project. It may comprise an interactive roadmap setup and editing tool box which is instrumental to successfully manage dependencies within large and complex projects in the Upstream and/or other industries. Next to this it allows to assess value and risk of industrial projects as input for decision making.

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  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
  • Primary Health Care (AREA)
  • Animal Husbandry (AREA)
  • General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Mining & Mineral Resources (AREA)
  • Marine Sciences & Fisheries (AREA)
  • Agronomy & Crop Science (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Educational Administration (AREA)
  • Operations Research (AREA)
  • Quality & Reliability (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

La présente invention concerne une suite d'outil de structure de décision (DFTS) basée sur le Web et un procédé de planification et d'exécution à base de chaîne de décision systématique de production de fluide hydrocarbure ou d'autres projets industriels qui comprend : - la génération d'une carte routière interactive pour prendre et suivre des décisions concernant une gamme d'options au moins partiellement interdépendantes pour la planification et l'exécution du projet ; et - l'affichage sur un tableau de bord d'indicateurs de performance clés (KPI) et de plages d'incertitude potentielles des KPI associés à la chaîne de décision concernant la sélection et le déploiement des options au moins partiellement interdépendantes. La DFTS peut être équipée d'outils fonctionnels qui permettent la liaison, le groupement et/ou la visualisation de décision, options, risques, incertitudes, stratégies et scénarios et leur gestion tout au long des différents stades du cycle de vie de projets.
PCT/US2014/046064 2014-01-06 2014-07-10 Outil de structure de décision et procédé de planification et d'exécution de projets industriels à base de chaîne de décision systématique WO2015102669A1 (fr)

Applications Claiming Priority (2)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
EP14150239 2014-01-06
EP14150239.3 2014-01-06

Publications (1)

Publication Number Publication Date
WO2015102669A1 true WO2015102669A1 (fr) 2015-07-09

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Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20020169658A1 (en) * 2001-03-08 2002-11-14 Adler Richard M. System and method for modeling and analyzing strategic business decisions
US20040068429A1 (en) * 2001-10-02 2004-04-08 Macdonald Ian D Strategic organization plan development and information present system and method
US20050096950A1 (en) * 2003-10-29 2005-05-05 Caplan Scott M. Method and apparatus for creating and evaluating strategies
JP2011096108A (ja) * 2009-10-30 2011-05-12 Hitachi Ltd 生産計画変更意思決定支援装置及びプログラム
KR20130050692A (ko) * 2011-11-08 2013-05-16 한국건설기술연구원 액화천연가스 플랜트 사업의 사업관리를 위한 의사결정 지원 시스템

Patent Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20020169658A1 (en) * 2001-03-08 2002-11-14 Adler Richard M. System and method for modeling and analyzing strategic business decisions
US20040068429A1 (en) * 2001-10-02 2004-04-08 Macdonald Ian D Strategic organization plan development and information present system and method
US20050096950A1 (en) * 2003-10-29 2005-05-05 Caplan Scott M. Method and apparatus for creating and evaluating strategies
JP2011096108A (ja) * 2009-10-30 2011-05-12 Hitachi Ltd 生産計画変更意思決定支援装置及びプログラム
KR20130050692A (ko) * 2011-11-08 2013-05-16 한국건설기술연구원 액화천연가스 플랜트 사업의 사업관리를 위한 의사결정 지원 시스템

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