WO2015002619A1

WO2015002619A1 - Earthquake prediction and early warning system

Info

Publication number: WO2015002619A1
Application number: PCT/TR2013/000249
Authority: WO
Inventors: Veysi KURT
Original assignee: Kurt Veysi
Priority date: 2013-07-01
Filing date: 2013-07-01
Publication date: 2015-01-08

Abstract

This invention relates to an earthquake prediction and early warning system that can be used in all destructive earthquake zones or regions exposed to earthquake risks which allows the prevention of loss of life and property by predicting the occurrence of an earthquake at least six hours in advance including the distance to the epicenter, time of occurrence and magnitude of the earthquake.

Description

SPECIFICATION

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

TECHNICAL FIELD

STATE OF THE ART

Today, natural disasters remain as the most significant problems humankind has not been able to solve yet.

Earthquakes are known as the most risky of all natural disasters in the risk ranking. In other words, earthquakes are accepted as one of the most risky natural disasters due to a lack of early warning systems as to time, location or magnitude of an earthquake.

An earthquake may possibly cause innumerable loss of life and property as a result of the increase in communal and social life and the number of high buildings particularly in cities as well as the undesirable outcomes of urban sprawl. A number of studies being made today with the aim of lessening the loss of life and property only take the very moment of earthquakes or the time afterwards. And such measures remain ineffective in real sense.

Since we cannot stop the movement of tectonic plates or volcanic eruptions, which means that we cannot avoid the occurrence of earthquakes, it is of vital importance to predict the occurrence of earthquakes in a time range that would allow adequate time for safeguarding lives and property. Geological and geophysical studies conducted on this matter so far could not be able to go beyond some common and empirical methods based on non -numerical values such as animal behaviors, outgassing in the earth's crust, etc.

DEFINITION OF INVENTION

This invention eliminates the disadvantages defined by the current situation of the technique.

This invention relates to an earthquake prediction and early warning system that can be used in all destructive earthquake zones or regions exposed to earthquake risks which allows the prevention of the loss of life and property by predicting the occurrence of an earthquake at least six hours in advance including the distance to the epicenter, time of occurrence and magnitude of the earthquake.

This invention is based on measurement of naturally generated signals. Therefore, early warning data are provided in net figures. The three-alternation method allows the prediction of the time, location and magnitude of the earthquakes accurately at least six hours and a maximum of one hundred and twenty hours in advance which ensures minimized loss of life and property caused by earthquakes. REFERENCE LIST

1. Top device

1.1. Reflector and regulator

1.2. Central process unit

1.3. Tuner

1.4. Sound amplifier

1.5. SYNC amplifier

1.6. High-voltage transformer 1.7. Filament

1.8. 14 -inch tube

1.9. Coil

2. Bottom device

3. Receiving antenna

4. Instrument panel

5. Refracting camera

6. Normal camera

7. Computer -1

8. Computer - 2

SHORT DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

Figure 1. View of distance between point B where energy concentration is at maximum (hypocenter) and point P where earthquake emerges first on the surface of lithosphere (epicenter) (the letter S stands for settlement area).

Figure 2. Block diagram of the invention

Figure 3. Normal situation of the area between components of the invention Figure 4. Status view of the moment when a natural signal generates between components of the invention

Figure 5. General view of the top device

Figure 6. General view of the bottom device

Figure 7. Three alternations

Figure 8. View of greatest oscillation consisting of three alternations within the natural signal generated at the common field of the invention

Figure 9. Common view of inference based on the three alternations method using the greatest oscillation within the signal

DESCRIPTION OF INVENTION

This invention relates to an earthquake prediction and early warning system that comprises of a Top Device (1), Receiving Antenna (2), Instrument Panel (3), Refracting Camera (4), Normal Camera (5), Computer 1 (7) and Computer 2 (8). The Top Device (1) houses a reflector and regulator (1.1), central process unit (1.2), tuner (1.3), sound amplifier (1.4), SYNC amplifier (1.5), high-voltage transformer (1.6), filament (1.7), 14-inch tube (1.8) and coil (1.9).

The invention is based on a system acting in direct proportion to huge movements of energy under the ground. It predicts large energy signals that cause ruptures in the lithosphere by means of the three alternations method.

It is based on the condition that the signal received when a rupture starts at point B (hypocenter) in the lithosphere is the same as the signal showing the magnitude of the earthquake at point P (epicenter). (Remark: The letter S stands for the settlement area.) The invention determines the greatest oscillation in the signal that shows the magnitude of an earthquake using the three-alternation method.

According to the invention;

• The difference between the first stress alternation and the second negative alternation represents the stress alternation (magnitude) of the earthquake.

• If the difference between the second alternation and the third alternation is equal to or slightly more than the difference between the first and the second alternations, then it accurately defines the magnitude of the earthquake.

• The time lapsing among the three alternations accurately defines the occurrence time of the earthquake. The time to lapse during examination of records from the third alternation towards the first alternation (setting the delay and skip adjustments constant and at minimum) defines the occurrence time of the earthquake.

• The emergence of the signs of an earthquake strictly requires the emergence of an oscillation = three alternations. • Furthermore, the secondary alternation functions as the basic factor in determining the distance between the earthquake and the area where the components of the invention are placed. In this invention only natural signals appear within the zone constituted by the top and the bottom devices (1 and 2). Those signals permanently act in direct proportion to the large energy movements in the lithosphere.

Only the signs of an earthquake with a magnitude > 4.5 are taken into consideration. On the other hand, any signs≥ 5.0 emerging out of the 100 km distance limit set around the components of the invention are taken into account and processed.

Normally, the difference between the three alternations should not exceed 10 sees. Otherwise, the value is read as a full 1.0 point less. For example; if the greatest oscillation = three alternations of a delayed signal indicates an earthquake of 6.0 magnitude, then the magnitude of that earthquake is actually 5.0 due to the low velocity between the alternations. On the other hand, the depth of the earthquake is over 0 km.

If the velocity among the three alternations showing the magnitude of the earthquake ends in three seconds, it means that the earthquake shall occur after six to eight hours. Each second indicating the velocity between the alternations is equal to two hours.

According to the invention, if the difference between the first and second alternations and the difference between the second and the third alternations are the same and the time is less than 10 sees., then the magnitude of the earthquake shall actually be 1.0 point above the value so obtained. For example; if the difference between the first and the second alternations and the difference between the second and the third alternations are both 31 , then the magnitude of the earthquake is calculated as (31 + 31 = 62) 6.2 to which 1.0 should be added and taken as 7.2 since the differences between the two alternations sets are equal.

The top device (1) transmits the noise signals (sound and video) received from the atmosphere through the tuner (1.3) and amplified by the sound amplifier (1.4 to the 12 cm long and 3 cm diameter rounded and varnished wooden coil (1.9) that a 0.15 copper wire is wound round 60 times.

High voltage (7500 volts DC) video signals transmitted to the 14-inch tube (1.8) are conveyed to the common field with the bottom device (2) along with the video and noise signals. Signals generated in the common field are continuously transmitted to the instrument panel (4) of the receiving antenna (3) situated in the middle of the top and bottom devices (1 and 2).

It reflects the atmospheric electric signals on the instrument panel (4) in millivolts. It operates with 0.2 V DC and 220 V AC. Values read between 205 and 215 millivolts indicate that the top device is silent. The 0.2 volt signal coming from the 220 volt receiver antenna (3) conveys the signals arriving to the tuner (1.3) to the tuner (1.3) circuit with 33 V AC scanning voltage. Signals coming from the tuner (1.3) are amplified through the sound amplifier (1.4) which are then fed to the transmission coil (1.9).

The coil (1.9) of the top device (1) sends the signals to the common field created with the bottom device (2) just like the coil of the bottom device (2). Signals received at the common field constitute the basic element in generation of natural signals at the common field. Natural signals generated at the common field are transmitted to the instrument panel (4) by the receiving antenna (3) of the instrument panel (4). Signals transmitted to the instrument panel (4) are recorded in computer 1 (7) by the refracting camera (5). Records are evaluated hourly. Any sign at point B is analyzed on the three-alternation basis.

After the direct transition of the neutral of the 220 volts alternating current, directly over 2.5 mm, fully insulated copper wire, at 10 cm depth in the earth 78 cm from the instrument panel (4) of the bottom device (2), the fully insulated 2.5 mm live line of the 220-volt alternating current will be wound with 100 windings around a 50 cm long round and solid piece of wood having a 5 cm diameter, after being coated with varnish and then hot silicone before winding and covered by fully greased insulating rigid and flexible cardboard used on the interior windings of the motors, cold silicone and 0.5 mm ceramic tiles were laid with the adhesive on them. Here keeping the resistance constant is based on. After the winding of the bottom unit (2), only live portion of the alternating current together with the neutral, 220 volt electrical current providing the operation of the two computers (7, 8) used for the system, 7 meters away will be provided over this bottom device (2). In addition, 45 V DC power passes by the bottom device (2) through a 14 mm plastic pipe.

The receiving antenna (3) is the component the probe-end of which is connected between the devices and the other end to the instrument panel (4) line in millivolts AC.

The instrument panel (4) indicates the natural signals coming from the receiving antenna (3) in numerical values (millivolt AC). The refracting camera (5) continuously transmits the natural signals coming from the instrument panel (4) to computer 1 (7).

The function of the normal camera (6) is to check the vicinity of the system on a permanent basis. It sends images of the field where the system operates to computer 2 (8) for recording. Its main task is to keep the system field free of any super-conducing substances in order to keep the system resistance of the field constant at all times. The resistance should be kept constant since any change in resistance leads to further changes in voltage. The computer 1 (7) records the natural signals coming from the instrument panel (4) by means of the refracting camera (5). Those records are checked hourly. The computer 2 (8) continuously records the system field. Those records are analyzed when a meaningful signal is received.

When no earthquake signal is received, the signal at the common field of the top and the bottom devices (1 , 2) changes between 205 and 215 millivolts which is called normal status with no signal.

When an earthquake signal is received in the common field, the greatest oscillation in the signal is slowed down and broadened. The differences between the first and the second alternations and second and third alternations are numerically defined.

Three-alternation concept; When slowed down and opened, the greatest oscillation in the natural signal generated in the common field is observed to consist of three alternations.

The first one is the voltage alternation, however, the second alternation is taken as the reference in the measurement. Its voltage is always above the reference line (positive). It cannot be evaluated singly.

The second alternation always generates below the reference line (negative). First and third alternations are taken as the reference in the measurement. It cannot be evaluated singly. The second alternation is the basic factor in predicting the magnitude, distance to the system and time of an earthquake.

The third alternation is used in predicting the magnitude of an earthquake accurately. The time lapse between the first alternation and the third alternation acts as the basic factor in predicting the time of an earthquake.

Those three alternations are used together to predict the magnitude, time and place of an earthquake. Examples of prediction using the three alternations;

• Example 1 : If the difference between the first and the second alternations is 30 and between the second and the third alternations is 30, the magnitude of the earthquake involved is calculated as 10% of the sum of two differences, which is 6.0 in this example. If the velocity of time between the alternations is less than 10 sees., the magnitude of the earthquake is increased by 1 which gives the magnitude of the earthquake as 7.0 at an approx. depth of 5 km.

• Example 2: If the difference between the first and the second alternations is 30 and between the second and the third alternations is 30, magnitude of the earthquake involved is calculated as 6.0. If the velocity of time between the alternations is more than 10 sees., the earthquake is predicted to occur over 10 km depth.

• Example 3: If the difference between the first and the second alternations is 25 and between the second and the third alternations is 27 and the velocity of time between the alternations is more than 10 sees., the magnitude of the earthquake involved is calculated as 10% of the sum of two differences which is 5.2 in this example and it is predicted to occur at a depth over 10 km. If the velocity of time between the alternations is less than 10 sees., the magnitude of the earthquake is increased by 1 which gives the magnitude of the earthquake as 6.2 at a depth under 10 km.

Any other artificial signal cannot distort the prediction since only an oscillation generated by natural earthquake signals consists of three alternations.

This invention takes the time lapsed from the third alternation towards the first alternation as a basis in determining the time to elapse between the three alternations for predicting the occurrence time of an earthquake. Time to elapse from the first alternation towards the third alternation cannot be taken as a basis, otherwise, it would not give the real time.

Since an entire oscillation (three alternations) cannot generate in less than 3 sees, which corresponds to 6 hours in calculation of time, an earthquake is predicted at least 6 hours in advance (1 sec. = 2 hours). Use of an oscilloscope should be avoided in order to prevent loss of time or any change in resistance value.

The common field in this invention is the clearance between the top and bottom devices (1 and 2). The AC currents accumulating in the bottom device (2) and the natural indicative signals within the common signals induced at the common field are taken into account and analyzed. The length of the common field between the top and bottom devices (1 , 2) is 166 cm, which acts as a natural capacitor.

Claims

This invention relates to an earthquake prediction and early warning system characterized in that it comprises of a top device (1), bottom device (2), receiving antenna (3), instrument panel (4), refracting camera (5), normal camera (6), computer 1 (7) and computer 2 (8).

The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of a reflector and regulator (1.1), central process unit (1.

2), tuner (1.

3), sound amplifier (1.

4), SYNC amplifier (1.

5), high-voltage transformer (1.

6), filament (1.7), 14-inch tube (1.8) and coil (1.9) housed in the top device (1 ).

The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of the top device (1) that transmits the noise signals (sound and video) received from the atmosphere through the tuner (1.3) and amplified by the sound amplifier (1.4) to the 12 cm long and 3 cm diameter rounded and varnished wooden coil (1.9) that a 0.15 copper wire is wound round 60 times.

The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that the high voltage (7500 volts DC) video signals transmitted to the 14-inch tube (1.8) are conveyed to the common field with the bottom device (2) along with the video and noise signals. Signals generated in the common field are continuously transmitted to the instrument panel (4) of the receiving antenna (3) situated in the middle of the top and bottom devices.

The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that the signal at the top device (1) changes between 205 and 215 millivolts which is called normal status with no signal.

The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that the signals transmitted to the instrument panel (4) are recorded in computer 1 (7) by the refracting camera (5).

7. This is the determining and reporting system before the earthquake as said in claim 1 and it is characterized in that it comprises the sub-device (2) that transmits to the two computers (7.8) used for the system 7 meters away, along with only live portion of the alternating current together with the neutral, after the direct transition of the neutral of the 220 volts alternating current, directly over 2.5mm, fully insulated copper wire, at 10 cm depth in the earth after 78cm from the indicator board (4).

8. The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of the receiving antenna (3) the probe-end of which is connected between the devices and the other end to the instrument panel (4) line in millivolts AC.

9. The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of the instrument panel (4) that indicates the natural signals coming from the receiving antenna (3) in numerical values (millivolt AC)

10. The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of the refracting camera (5) that continuously transmits the natural signals coming from the instrument panel (4) to computer 1 (7).

11. The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of the normal camera (6) whose function is to check the vicinity of the system on a permanent basis, to send images of the field where the system operates to computer 2 (8) for recording and to keep the system field free of any super-conducing substances in order to keep the system resistance of the field constant at all times.

12. The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of computer 1 (7) that records the natural signals coming from the instrument panel (4) by means of the refracting camera (5).

13. The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of computer 2 (8) whose function is to continuously record the system field.

14. The earthquake prediction and early warning system according to Claim 1 , characterized in that it comprises of analyzing the three alternations for the prediction and early warning of an earthquake as follows:

· When an earthquake signal is received in the common field, the greatest oscillation in the signal is slowed down and broadened.

• If the difference between the first and the second alternations and between the second and the third alternations are the same, the magnitude of the earthquake involved is calculated as 10% of the sum of the two differences and if the velocity of time between the alternations is less than 10 sees., the magnitude of the earthquake is increased by 1 and it is predicted to occur at an approx. depth of 5 km.

• If the difference between the first and the second alternations and between the second and the third alternations are the same and if the velocity of time between the alternations is more than 10 sees., the earthquake is predicted to occur over 10 km depth.

• If the difference between the first and the second alternations and between the second and the third alternations are not the same and the velocity of time between the alternations is more than 10 sees., the magnitude of the earthquake involved is calculated as 0% of the sum of two differences and it is predicted to occur at a depth over 10 km and, if the velocity of time between the alternations is less than 10 sees., the magnitude of the earthquake is increased by 1 and it is predicted to occur at a depth under 10 km.