WO2010006345A1 - Estimation de risque de comportement entrepreneurial pour la détermination des qualités requises d'un candidat pour des produits associés à un risque - Google Patents

Estimation de risque de comportement entrepreneurial pour la détermination des qualités requises d'un candidat pour des produits associés à un risque Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2010006345A1
WO2010006345A1 PCT/ZA2009/000063 ZA2009000063W WO2010006345A1 WO 2010006345 A1 WO2010006345 A1 WO 2010006345A1 ZA 2009000063 W ZA2009000063 W ZA 2009000063W WO 2010006345 A1 WO2010006345 A1 WO 2010006345A1
Authority
WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
ebra
candidate
generating
score
entrepreneurial
Prior art date
Application number
PCT/ZA2009/000063
Other languages
English (en)
Inventor
Jeremy Esekow
Original Assignee
Jeremy Esekow
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Jeremy Esekow filed Critical Jeremy Esekow
Publication of WO2010006345A1 publication Critical patent/WO2010006345A1/fr

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Classifications

    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/08Insurance

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to an entrepreneurial behavioural risk assessment.
  • Risk assessments are an essential aspect of determining candidate suitability for a risk associated product or service. These assessments are most commonly used in the banking and insurance industries. In the case of the banking industry, credit worthiness assessments are conducted by analysing the candidate's prior credit record and possibly vetting the content and suitability of a proposed business plan for which the candidate seeks financing. In the case of the insurance industry, current life style and medical history assessments provide the core focus in determining a candidate's risk profile.
  • the invention seeks to provide an entrepreneurial behavioural risk assessment that at least partially ameliorates the disadvantages associated with known risk-profile assessments used to approve candidates for risk-associated products or services.
  • the invention provides a method of creating an entrepreneurial behavioural risk assessment (EBRA) of a candidate using a plurality of decision making heuristics, wherein a profile for predisposition to risk taking and decision making of the candidate is created, thereby enabling a risk-associated product provider to more accurately determine whether the products should be afforded to the candidate.
  • EBRA entrepreneurial behavioural risk assessment
  • the heuristic models selected create a profile of the candidate as a decision maker, utilizing a series of case study and analysis questions, these questions may be structured in a short question format, a multiple choice question format or a combination thereof.
  • the EBRA provides a method of creating a decision making profile of a candidate in the absence of a credit worthiness history, business plan or financial statement review to assess a product application.
  • the EBRA can also be used in conjunction with the above mentioned existing analysis methods. This is particularly beneficial where a candidate does not have a credit history or alternative financial information or an inadequate credit history or financial information for purposes of approving him as suitable candidate.
  • Other benefits include creating a more accurate risk profile of the candidate, when determining the risk involved with insuring the candidate.
  • the EBRA utilizes a plurality of cognitive biases and heuristics including any one of Framing, Representativeness, Counterfactual thinking, Overconfidence, Excessive optimism, Illusion of control, Escalation of commitment, Planning fallacy, Sunk cost fallacy or Endowment effect.
  • the cognitive biases and heuristics used are not limited to the mentioned list.
  • the EBRA determines the candidate's entrepreneurial aptitude by assessing entrepreneurial skills including at least one of commercial numeracy, goal awareness, attitude towards an agency relationship, opportunistic and non-cooperative behaviour.
  • the EBRA includes the steps of providing the questionnaire to the candidate in a paper form, the candidate completing the questionnaire and submitting it for evaluation.
  • the questions are completed on a mobile communication device or a fixed terminal device, the answers being processed on the device or submitted to a remote processor for evaluation.
  • Evaluation as to the candidate's suitability for the intended risk-product is based on an EBRA score generated. Evaluation is conveniently undertaken and confirmed by a representative or affiliate of the product provider, whereafter the candidate's application can be approved or rejected based on an alphanumeric score and explanation.
  • the invention provides a method of creating an entrepreneurial behavioural risk assessment (EBRA) of a candidate using a plurality of decision making cognitive biases and heuristics.
  • EBRA entrepreneurial behavioural risk assessment
  • a profile and alphanumeric score describing the candidates predisposition to risk taking and decision making of the candidate is thereby created.
  • a risk-associated product provider is enabled to more accurately determine whether the products should be afforded to the candidate having regard to existing methods.
  • the method involves creating a questionnaire containing numerous multiple choice questions and short questions. These questions test cognitive biases and the manifestation of decision making heuristics thereby indicating a candidate's entrepreneurial aptitude when faced with predetermined conditions. The conditions tested are determined by likely risks and factors experienced by the candidate in the sector or category of business activity.
  • a candidate In the case of a financial institution, a candidate is able to be assessed for responsible or risk-averse financial management behaviour and decision making biases. The uncertainty behind how a candidate will respond in a future risk associated situation is thereby made more certain. Such certainty was previously unavailable, particularly in circumstances where the candidate was not afforded the opportunity to engage in a specific high-risk behaviour.
  • the EBRA allows a product-provider to ascertain risk-taking and decision making behaviour with a greater degree of certainty.
  • the questionnaire is completed by candidates to evaluate whether the meet or approximate predetermined conditions.
  • the questionnaire may be paper based or completed using a mobile communication device such as an appropriately enabled cellular phone, or a fixed computer terminal in the financial institution.
  • the paper questionnaire is submitted to a representative of the financial institution or transmitted electronically, as the case may be.
  • EBRA Electronic Records
  • the applications for such industry related products or opportunities are either granted, rejected or considered in a different light in accordance with the EBRA profile generated.
  • the EBRA may be used by rating agencies wherein a ccommercial rating is generated in the form of an alphanumeric score. Areas of concern may also be identified and communicated to the candidate. Guidance and training can then be sought to address these cognitive biases if necessary.
  • the EBRA may thereby be used to both evaluate decision making inadequacies and provide highly relevant information which may ultimately result in a larger pool of suitable candidates.
  • the EBRA should facilitate a responsible increase in financing decisions in favour of creditworthy candidates who would currently be filtered out by current lending technologies. These existing technologies do not produce sufficient information cost effectively on the entrepreneurial aptitude or decision making biases of the applicants.
  • the EBRA can be used in conjunction with existing methods of financial behaviour models to more accurately determine the risk profile of a candidate.
  • the value of EBRA is however best illustrated where existing methods lack suitable data to be of analytical benefit.

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  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Accounting & Taxation (AREA)
  • Finance (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Technology Law (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Financial Or Insurance-Related Operations Such As Payment And Settlement (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

L’invention concerne un procédé de génération d'une estimation de risque de comportement entrepreneurial (EBRA) d'un candidat participant, l'estimation comprenant une pluralité de questions à base d'heuristique de prise de décision et de biais cognitifs. Dans le procédé, à la fin des questions, un profil de prédisposition à la prise de risque et à la prise de décision du candidat est généré. Un score alphanumérique est généré à la fin de l'estimation, le candidat obtenant de ce fait un score qui a un profil de risque de comportement entrepreneurial correspondant.
PCT/ZA2009/000063 2008-07-11 2009-07-09 Estimation de risque de comportement entrepreneurial pour la détermination des qualités requises d'un candidat pour des produits associés à un risque WO2010006345A1 (fr)

Applications Claiming Priority (2)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
ZA2008/06079 2008-07-11
ZA200806079 2008-07-11

Publications (1)

Publication Number Publication Date
WO2010006345A1 true WO2010006345A1 (fr) 2010-01-14

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Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
PCT/ZA2009/000063 WO2010006345A1 (fr) 2008-07-11 2009-07-09 Estimation de risque de comportement entrepreneurial pour la détermination des qualités requises d'un candidat pour des produits associés à un risque

Country Status (1)

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WO (1) WO2010006345A1 (fr)

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
WO2020247001A1 (fr) * 2019-06-03 2020-12-10 Intuit Inc. Prédiction et catégorisation de biais dans des outils financiers
US11341446B2 (en) 2016-06-14 2022-05-24 International Business Machines Corporation Personalized behavior-driven dynamic risk management with constrained service capacity

Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20030126049A1 (en) * 2001-12-31 2003-07-03 Nagan Douglas A. Programmed assessment of technological, legal and management risks
US20030125997A1 (en) * 2001-12-20 2003-07-03 Allison Stoltz System and method for risk assessment
WO2004046979A2 (fr) * 2002-11-18 2004-06-03 Accenture Global Services Gmbh Systeme d'analyse de donnees de risque (rda)
US20040128186A1 (en) * 2002-09-17 2004-07-01 Jodi Breslin System and method for managing risks associated with outside service providers
WO2006096603A2 (fr) * 2005-03-04 2006-09-14 Iocent, Llc Systeme et methodes pour une stratification de risques de groupes de patient

Patent Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20030125997A1 (en) * 2001-12-20 2003-07-03 Allison Stoltz System and method for risk assessment
US20030126049A1 (en) * 2001-12-31 2003-07-03 Nagan Douglas A. Programmed assessment of technological, legal and management risks
US20040128186A1 (en) * 2002-09-17 2004-07-01 Jodi Breslin System and method for managing risks associated with outside service providers
WO2004046979A2 (fr) * 2002-11-18 2004-06-03 Accenture Global Services Gmbh Systeme d'analyse de donnees de risque (rda)
WO2006096603A2 (fr) * 2005-03-04 2006-09-14 Iocent, Llc Systeme et methodes pour une stratification de risques de groupes de patient

Cited By (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US11341446B2 (en) 2016-06-14 2022-05-24 International Business Machines Corporation Personalized behavior-driven dynamic risk management with constrained service capacity
WO2020247001A1 (fr) * 2019-06-03 2020-12-10 Intuit Inc. Prédiction et catégorisation de biais dans des outils financiers
US11315177B2 (en) 2019-06-03 2022-04-26 Intuit Inc. Bias prediction and categorization in financial tools

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