WO2003088811A2 - Gelsolin as a prognostic marker of artherosclerotic diseases - Google Patents

Abstract

This invention involves the using blood gelsolin levels as a diagnostic test to determine the risk of artherosclerotic diseases such as myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease, particularly among subjects with no signs or symptoms of current disease and among nonsmokers. Further, this invention involves the new use of a diagnostic test to assist physicians in determining which subjects at risk will preferentially benefit from certain treatments designed either to prevent first or recurrent myocardial infarctions and strokes, or to treat acute and chronic cardiovascular disorders.

Description

GELSOLIN AS A PROGNOSTIC MARKER OF ATHEROSCLEROTIC

DISEASES

Field of the Invention

This invention describes the new use of a diagnostic test to determine the risk of atherosclerotic diseases such as myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease, particularly among subjects with no signs or symptoms of current disease and among nonsmokers. Further, this invention describes the new use of a diagnostic test to assist physicians in determining which subjects at risk will preferentially benefit from certain treatments designed either to prevent first or recurrent myocardial infarctions and strokes, or to treat acute and chronic cardiovascular disorders.

Background of the Invention Despite significant advances in therapy, cardiovascular disease remains the single most common cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed world. Thus, prevention of cardiovascular disorders such as myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease is an area of major public health importance. Currently, several risk factors for future cardiovascular disorders have been described and are in wide clinical use in the detection of subjects at high risk. Such screening tests include evaluations of total and HDL cholesterol levels. However, a large number of cardiovascular disorders occur in subjects with apparently low to moderate risk profiles, and our ability to identify such patients is limited. Moreover, accumulating data suggests that the beneficial effects of certain preventive and therapeutic treatments for patients at risk for or known to have cardiovascular disorders differs in magnitude among different patient groups. At this time, however, data describing diagnostic tests to determine whether certain therapies can be expected to be more or less effective are lacking.

Certain cardiovascular disorders, such as myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke, are associated with atherosclerosis. The mechanism of atherosclerosis is not well understood. Accordingly, a need exists to identify new and better prognostic markers of atherosclerotic disease to permit early treatment intervention. Summary of the Invention

This invention describes new diagnostic tests which broadly include (1) the prediction of risk of future atherosclerotic disorders such as myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease; and (2) the determination of the likelihood that certain subjects will benefit to a greater or lesser extent from the use of certain treatments designed to prevent and/or treat atherosclerotic disorders. These new tests are based, in part, upon the following discoveries and hypotheses; however, it is to be understood that the invention is not to be limited to any particular theory or mechanism of action. In the late 1970s, we discovered a cellular protein that we named "gelsolin," that is involved in remodeling cellular actin. It is regulated by calcium and by phosphoinositides. Shortly thereafter, it became apparent to us that extracellular fluids contain two secreted actin-binding proteins, Gc globulin (or vitamin D binding protein) and an isoform of cellular gelsolin, now called "plasma gelsolin." Initially, it was reported that Gc globulin and plasma gelsolin complex with actin that is released by injury or inflammation, surmising that free actin was harmful (NEJM 326:1335-1341, 1992). Plasma gelsolin and Gc globulin depletion, as well as complexes of actin with these proteins, were detected in experimental lung injury, in experimental hemolysis, in burn fluids, and in clinical settings: pregnancy, adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), fulminant hepatic necrosis, malaria, and pneumonia. The fact that relatively little actin is injured in acute myocardial infarctions (AMI), yet one can monitor gelsolin depression in the periphery (Critical Care Med 25:594-598, 1997) suggested to us that local concentrations of plasma gelsolin might be quite low.

In 1998, it was reported that gelsolin tightly binds lysophosphatidic acid (LPA) (EMBO J. 17:5923-5932, 1998). We recently reported that gelsolin blocks cellular activities of LPA in vitro (J. Biol. Chem. 275:14573-14578, 2000). These findings led us to reconsider the role of plasma gelsolin in vivo. We propose that in addition to possibly clearing free actin, tissue damage also independently depletes gelsolin, thereby leaving bioactive lipids such as LPA unbuffered. Further, we propose that in local injury, gelsolin depletion and LPA generation by platelets and inflammatory cells allows the LPA to exert its inflammatory effects. Atherosclerosis is a form of tissue injury in intimate connection with flowing blood. Oxidized LDL in human atheromata has been reported to produce LPA (PNAS 96:6931-6936, 1999). To determine whether gelsolin levels fall in atherosclerosis, we obtained serum samples from lipid-fed Apolipoprotein-E knockout mice that develop atherosclerotic vascular lesions and measured gelsolin levels, using Western blotting and a functional assay involving actin filament nucleation. We observed a striking (about 50%) reduction in plasma gelsolin levels in the plasma of the knockout animals compared to the wild-type animals. We then acquired 20 EDTA plasma samples, four from laboratory personnel with no prior diagnosis of atherosclerotic disease and sixteen from patients with previously diagnosed vascular disease being evaluated for forearm blood flow impairment by the Cardiology Division, Brigham & Womens' Hospital, Inc., Boston, MA. Eighteen of the twenty plasma gelsolin samples of these subjects, including all sixteen samples of the patients with previously diagnosed vascular disease, fell below the apparently normal control values. Based, in part, on the foregoing observations, we propose measuring blood gelsolin levels as a prognostic marker of atherosclerotic diseases, wherein a reduction in gelsolin levels is used as a parameter to predict vascular complications of atherosclerotic disease by virtue of reflecting the total burden of vascular damage at a given time.

In summary, we have discovered that reduced levels of gelsolin are predictive of future cardiovascular disorders. For example, reduced levels of gelsolin in apparently healthy, nonsmokers are predictive of an increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease.

We also have discovered that the likelihood that certain subjects will benefit to a greater or a lesser extent from the use of certain therapeutic agents for reducing the risk of a future cardiovascular disorder can be determined from the base-line and/or chronic blood gelsolin level in the subject.

We further have discovered that the predictive value of gelsolin is independent of other predictors (e.g., markers of systemic inflammation -see, e.g., U.S. Patent 6,040,147) and, for example, are additive with risk factors derived from total cholesterol levels and total cholesterol/HDL ratios. Thus, the level of gelsolin does not simply duplicate that which is measured when levels of, for example, cholesterol and/or a marker of systemic inflammation (e.g., C- Reactive Protein, soluble CD40L (CD 154)) are measured.

As mentioned above, these discoveries have led to new diagnostic and therapeutic methods and compositions. According to one aspect of the invention, a method is provided for characterizing a subject's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease. A level of gelsolin in the subject is obtained. The level of gelsolin in the blood (plasma, serum) is compared to a predetermined value and the subject's risk profile of developing the future cardiovascular disorder associated with the atherosclerotic disease, is characterized based upon the blood gelsolin level in comparison to the predetermined value (described below).

Preferably, the subject characterized is otherwise free of symptoms calling for treatment with an agent for treating a cardiovascular disease, i.e., an apparently healthy subject. The apparently healthy subject can be a smoker or a nonsmoker. In certain embodiments, the subject is nonhyperlipidemic. In these and other embodiments, the future cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease optionally excludes a fatal or a non-fatal myocardial infarction. In important embodiments, the cardiovascular disorder is selected from the group consisting of: myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral artery disease including, e.g., peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease.

The predetermined blood gelsolin value can be a single value, multiple values, a single range or multiple ranges. Thus, in one embodiment, the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined marker level ranges, and the comparing step comprises determining in which of the predetermined marker level ranges the subject's level falls. In preferred embodiments, a preferred predetermined gelsolin "normal" value is in the range of about 150 ng/mL to about 300 ng/mL of blood, inclusive. When ranges are employed, it is preferred that one of the plurality of ranges be below about 150 ng/mL of blood (representing a risk of developing a cardiovascular disorder) and that another of the ranges be above about 300 ng/mL of blood (representing a reduced risk or the absence of a risk of developing a cardiovascular disorder). As described in more detail below, the invention is particularly adapted to determining which subjects will preferentially benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing the risk in the subject of a cardiovascular disorder such as a future stroke, myocardial infarction, including nonfatal myocardial infarction, and/or peripheral artery disease (e.g., peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease). It also permits selection of candidate populations for clinical trials and for treatment with candidate drugs, by identifying, for example, the subjects most likely to benefit from a new treatment or from a known treatment with a high risk profile of adverse side effects. Thus, the invention provides information for evaluating the likely net benefit of certain treatments for candidate patients. Thus, it is anticipated that baseline levels of gelsolin among study participants who remain free of vascular disease during follow-up (controls) are significantly greater (range: 150 ng/mL to 300 ng/mL, inclusive, or more) compared to baseline levels of gelsolin among study participants who develop myocardial infarction or stroke (range: 10 ng/mL to 149 ng/mL, inclusive, or less). For ease of discussion and comparison of results, the gelsolin levels are divided into first, second, third and fourth quartiles based on the following gelsolin levels: (1) 10 ng/mL to 100 ng/mL; (2) 101 ng/mL to 149 ng/mL; (3) 150 ng/mL to 299 ng/mL; and (4) 300 ng/mL to 600 ng/mL.

The relative risks of developing a first myocardial infarction increases significantly with each decreasing quartile of baseline gelsolin such that participants in the lowest quartile are expected to have risks of future myocardial infarction several times greater than those in the highest quartile. Similarly, participants with the lowest baseline gelsolin levels are expected to have a significantly greater risk of developing future ischemic stroke and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease.

According to yet another aspect of the invention, an alternative method for characterizing a subject's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease is provided. This aspect of the invention involves using the blood gelsolin level together with a "second" marker to characterize the subject's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease. The second marker can be, for example, the level of an inflammatory marker (e.g., C-reactive protein (CRP), or sCD40L) and/or the level of a cholesterol marker. According to this aspect, the blood gelsolin level in the subject is obtained and is compared to a first predetermined value to establish a first risk value. The level of one or more second markers (e.g., sCD40L, CRP, a cholesterol) in the subject also is obtained and is compared to a second predetermined value to establish a second risk value. The subject's risk profile of developing the cardiovascular disorder then is characterized based upon the combination of the first risk value and the second risk value, wherein the combination of the first risk value and second risk value establishes a third risk value different from the first and second risk values. In particularly important embodiments, the third risk value is greater than either of the first and second risk values. The subjects for testing, markers and predetermined values are as described herein in reference to the first aspect of the invention and are described in more detail elsewhere in this application. The cardiovascular disorder can be any cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease, although in certain important embodiments the cardiovascular disorder is selected from the group consisting of myocardial infarction (fatal or non-fatal), stroke, and/or peripheral artery disease (e.g., peripher.il ischemic cardiovascular disease). According to yet another aspect of the invention, a method is provided for evaluating the likelihood that a subject will benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease. Preferably, the agent is selected from the group consisting of anti-inflammatory agents, anti-thrombotic agents, anti-platelet agents, fibrinolytic agents, lipid reducing agents, direct thrombin inhibitors, glycoprotein II b/IIIa receptor inhibitors, calcium channel blockers, beta-adrenergic receptor blockers, cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, angiotensin system inhibitors, and agents that bind to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibit the ability of white blood cells to attach to such molecules (e.g. anti-cellular adhesion molecule antibodies). According to this aspect of the invention, the blood gelsolin level in a subject is obtained and is compared to a predetermined value, wherein the blood gelsolin level in comparison to the predetermined value is indicative of the likelihood that the subject will benefit from treatment with the agent. The subject then can be characterized in terms of the net benefit likely to be obtained by treatment with the agent. Optionally, the method further includes determining the level of one or more second markers, such as those described above, and this additional information is used in an analogous manner as that described for the blood gelsolin level and in combination with the blood gelsolin level results, to evaluate the likelihood that the subject will benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease. The various types of subjects, cardiovascular disorders, gelsolin levels, second markers, and so forth, are as described with respect to the first and second aspects of the invention.

The invention is particularly useful for determining which subjects will preferentially benefit from treatment with the above-noted categories of agents. It also permits selection of candidate populations for clinical trials and for treatment with candidate drugs, by identifying, for example, the subjects most likely to benefit from a new treatment or from a known treatment with an elevated likelihood of adverse side effects. Thus, the invention provides information for evaluating the likely net benefit of certain treatments for candidate patients.

According to yet another aspect of the invention, a method for treating a subject to reduce the risk of a cardiovascular disorder is provided. The method involves selecting and administering to a subject who is known to have a below-normal blood gelsolin level, an agent for reducing the risk of the cardiovascular disorder. The agent can be an anti-inflammatory agent, an antithrombotic agent, an anti-platelet agent, a fibrinolytic agent, a lipid reducing agent, a direct thrombin inhibitor, a glycoprotein Ilb/IIIa receptor inhibitor, an agent that binds to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibits the ability of white blood cells to attach to such molecules, a calcium channel blocker, a beta-adrenergic receptor blocker, a cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor, an angiotensin system inhibitor, and/or combinations thereof. The agent is administered in an amount effective to lower the risk of the subject developing a future cardiovascular disorder.

The preferred subjects are apparently healthy subjects who are otherwise free of symptoms calling for treatment with any of the foregoing categories of agents. For example, with respect to anti-inflammatory agents, the preferred subjects are free of symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis, chronic back pain, autoimmune diseases, vascular diseases, viral diseases, malignancies, and the like. In further important embodiments, the subjects are not at an elevated risk of an adverse cardiovascular event (e.g., subjects with no family history of such events, subjects who are nonsmokers, subjects who are nonhyperlipidemic), other than having a reduced blood gelsolin level. According to a further aspect of the invention, methods for preparing medicaments useful in the treatment of cardiovascular conditions, are provided. According to still other aspects of the invention, kits for performing the diagnostic methods of the invention also are provided. Thus, the invention provides kits comprising a package including one or more components for determining blood gelsolin levels, instructions, and, optionally, related materials such as number or color charts, for correlating the level of gelsolin as determined by the assay with a risk of developing a future cardiovascular disorder or with other patient criteria as described above. Optionally, the kits include pre-mixed agents that can be constituted by adding prepackaged solutions to lyophilized protein. In important embodiments, the kits also include an assay for one or more secondary markers, such as an inflammatory marker (e.g., CRP, sCD40L) or a cholesterol marker. A representative assay for measuring plasma gelsolin levels is provided in the Examples. Optionally, the kits for practicing the methods of the invention include a relatively simple spectrofluorometric device that operates at the wavelengths needed to measure pyrene actin fluorescence using, e.g., the assay provided in the examples or alternative assay formats such as ELISA formats. (See, e.g., Smith et al., J. Lab Clin. 110:189-195, 1987).

These and other aspects of the invention will be described in more detail below in connection with the detailed description of the invention. All documents identified in this application are incorporated in their entirety herein by reference.

Detailed Description of the Invention

The invention is based, in part, on the discovery that serum samples from lipid- fed Apolipoprotein-E knockout mice that develop atherosclerotic vascular lesions show a striking (about 50%) reduction in plasma gelsolin levels compared to the blood gelsolin levels in wildtype animals. The invention also is based, in part, on the further discovery that plasma gelsolin levels for samples obtained from patients with previously diagnosed vascular disease, fall below the apparently normal blood gelsolin levels. Thus, the results described herein indicate, for the first time, the utility of blood gelsolin levels, alone or in combination with other markers, to predict risk among currently healthy and otherwise low-risk subjects.

In view of the foregoing, the invention is directed to methods and compositions which involve measuring blood gelsolin levels as a prognostic indicator of cardiovascular disease, wherein a reduction in gelsolin levels is used as a parameter to predict vascular complications of atherosclerotic disease by virtue of reflecting the total burden of vascular damage at a given time.

According to one aspect of the invention, a method is provided for characterizing a subject's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease. A level of gelsolin in the subject is obtained. The level of gelsolin in the blood (plasma, serum) is compared to a predetermined value. Thus, the subject's risk profile of developing the future cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease, is characterized based upon the blood gelsolin level in comparison to the predetermined value (described below). As used herein, "cardiovascular disorders associated with atherosclerotic disease" includes myocardial infarction, stroke, angina pectoris and peripheral atherosclerotic disease, including peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease. In general, cardiovascular disorders associated with atherosclerotic disease do not include venous thrombosis. As used herein, "apparently healthy" means subjects who have not previously had an acute adverse cardiovascular event such as a myocardial infarction (i.e., subjects who are not at an elevated risk of a second adverse cardiovascular event due to a primary adverse cardiovascular event). Apparently healthy subjects also do not otherwise exhibit symptoms of disease. In other words, such subjects, if examined by a medical professional, would be characterized as healthy and free of symptoms of cardiovascular disease.

As used herein, "nonhyperlipidemic" in reference to a subject is a subject that is a nonhypercholesterolemic and/or a nonhypertriglyceridemic subject. A "nonhypercholesterolemic" subject is one that does not fit the current criteria established for a hypercholesterolemic subject. A nonhypertriglyceridemic subject is one that does not fit the current criteria established for a hypertriglyceridemic subject (See, e.g.,

Harrison's Principles of Experimental Medicine, 13th Edition, McGraw-Hill, Inc., N.Y.- hereinafter "Harrison's"). Hypercholesterolemic subjects and hypertriglyceridemic subjects are associated with increased incidence of premature coronary heart disease. A hypercholesterolemic subject has an LDL level of >160 mg/dL, or >130 mg/dL and at least two risk factors selected from the group consisting of male gender, family history of premature coronary heart disease, cigarette smoking (more than 10 per day), hypertension, low HDL (<35 mg/dL), diabetes mellitus, hyperinsulinemia, abdominal obesity, high lipoprotein (a), and personal history of cerebrovascular disease or occlusive peripheral vascular disease. A hypertriglyceridemic subject has a triglyceride (TG) level of >250 mg/dL. Thus, a nonhyperlipidemic subject is defined as one whose cholesterol and triglyceride levels are below the limits set as described above for both the hypercholesterolemic and hypertriglyceridemic subjects.

As used herein, "nonsmoking" in reference to a subject means a subject who, at the time of the evaluation, is not a smoker. This includes subjects who have never smoked as well as subjects who in the past have smoked but presently no longer smoke. As used herein, agents for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder include, but are not limited to, agents selected from the group consisting of anti-inflammatory agents, anti-thrombotic agents, anti-platelet agents, fibrinolytic agents, lipid reducing agents, direct thrombin inhibitors, glycoprotein II b/IIIa receptor inhibitors, agents that bind to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibit the ability of white blood cells to attach to such molecules (e.g. anti-cellular adhesion molecule antibodies), calcium channel blockers, beta-adrenergic receptor blockers, cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, angiotensin system inhibitors, and/or any combinations thereof.

Preferably, the subject characterized is otherwise free of symptoms calling for treatment with an agent for treating a cardiovascular disease, i.e., an apparently healthy subject. The apparently healthy subject can be a smoker or a nonsmoker. In certain embodiments, the subject is nonhyperlipidemic. In these and other embodiments, the future cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease optionally excludes a fatal or a non-fatal myocardial infarction. In important embodiments, the cardiovascular disorder is selected from the group consisting of: myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral artery disease including, e.g., peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease. The predetermined blood gelsolin value can be a single value, multiple values, a single range or multiple ranges. Thus, in one embodiment, the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined marker level ranges, and the comparing step comprises determining in which of the predetermined marker level ranges the subject's level falls. In preferred embodiments, a preferred predetermined gelsolin "normal" value is in the range of about 150 ng/mL to about 300 ng/mL, inclusive, of blood. When ranges are employed, it is preferred that one of the plurality of ranges be below about 150 ng/mL of blood (representing a risk of developing a cardiovascular disorder) and that another of the ranges be above about 300 ng/mL of blood (representing the absence of a risk of developing a cardiovascular disorder). As described in more detail below, the invention is particularly adapted to determining which subjects will preferentially benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing the risk in the subject of a cardiovascular disorder such as a future stroke, myocardial infarction, including nonfatal myocardial infarction, and/or peripheral artery disease (e.g., peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease). It also permits selection of candidate populations for clinical trials and for treatment with candidate drugs, by identifying, for example, the subjects most likely to benefit from a new treatment or from a known treatment with a high risk profile of adverse side effects. Thus, the invention provides information for evaluating the likely net benefit of certain treatments for candidate patients. According to yet another aspect of the invention, an alternative method for characterizing a subject's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease is provided. This aspect of the invention involves using the blood gelsolin level together with a "second" marker to characterizing the subject's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease. The second marker can be, for example, the level of an inflammatory marker (e.g., C-reactive protein (CRP), or sCD40L) and/or the level of a cholesterol marker.

Exemplary inflammatory markers are described in published International Application PCT/US00/24251, entitled, "Systemic Inflammatory Markers as Diagnostic Tools in the Prevention of Altherosclerotic Disease, inventors Paul Ridker and Charles H. Hennekens, the entire contents of which is incorporated herein by reference. These markers include, but are not limited to: the group consisting of C-reactive protein, a cytokine and a cellular adhesion molecule. In a particularly preferred embodiment, the marker of systemic inflammation is C-reactive protein. In another preferred embodiment, the marker of systemic inflammation is the cytokine IL-6. Particularly useful results have been reported with each of these markers.

When the marker of systemic inflammation is C-reactive protein, then a preferred predetermined value is about 1 3/4 mg/L of blood. Another preferred predetermined value is about 2 mg/L of blood. When ranges are employed, it is preferred that one of the plurality of ranges be below about 1 3/4 mg/L of blood and that another of the ranges be above about 1 3/4 mg/L of blood. When the marker of systemic inflammation is sICAM-1, a cellular adhesion molecule, then a preferred predetermined value is about 250 ng/mL of blood. The predetermined value will depend, of course, on the particular marker selected and even upon the characteristics of the patient population in which the individual lies, described in greater detail below. Exemplary cholesterol markers and their normal and abnormal levels are known to those of ordinary skill in the art and include, but are not limited to: LDL (abnormal level of >160 mg/dL, or >130 mg/dL, HDL (abnormal level <35 mg/dL), elevated lipoprotein A, and/or triglyceride (TG) (abnormal level of >250 mg/dL). (See, also, the Examples, for levels of secondary markers.) In accordance with this aspect of the invention, the blood gelsolin level in the subject is obtained and is compared to a first predetermined value to establish a first risk value. The first predetermined value is as described above. The level of the one or more second markers (e.g., sCD40L, CRP, a cholesterol) in the subject also is obtained and is compared to a second predetermined value for the second marker to establish a second risk value. The subject's risk profile of developing the cardiovascular disorder then is characterized based upon the combination of the first risk value and the second risk value, wherein the combination of the first risk value and second risk value establishes a third risk value different from the first and second risk values. In particularly important embodiments, the third risk value is greater than either of the first and second risk values. The preferred subjects for testing, markers and predetermined values are described above. The cardiovascular disorder can be any cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease, although in certain important embodiments the cardiovascular disorder is selected from the group consisting of myocardial infarction (fatal or non-fatal), stroke, and/or peripheral artery disease (e.g., peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease).

According to yet another aspect of the invention, a method is provided for evaluating the likelihood that a subject will benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease. Preferably, the agent is selected from the group consisting of anti-inflammatory agents, anti-thrombotic agents, anti-platelet agents, fibrinolytic agents, lipid reducing agents, direct thrombin inhibitors, and glycoprotein II b/IIIa receptor inhibitors and agents that bind to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibit the ability of white blood cells to attach to such molecules (e.g. anti-cellular adhesion molecule antibodies). According to this aspect of the invention, the blood gelsolin level in a subject is obtained and is compared to a predetermined value, wherein the blood gelsolin level in comparison to the predetermined value is indicative of the likelihood that the subject will benefit from treatment with the agent. The subject then can be characterized in terms of the net benefit likely to be obtained by treatment with the agent. Optionally, the method further includes determining the level of one or more second markers, such as those described above, and this additional information is used in an analogous manner as that described for the blood gelsolin level and in combination with the blood gelsolin level results, to evaluate the likelihood that the subject will benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease. The various types of subjects, cardiovascular disorders, gelsolin levels, second markers, and so forth, are as described with respect to the first and second aspects of the invention. Exemplary agents for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease are described in the following paragraphs and elsewhere throughout this application. Exemplary anti-inflammatory agents include aspirin and non-aspirin anti- inflammatory agents including, but are not limited to: Alclofenac; Alclometasone Dipropionate; Algestone Acetonide; Alpha Amylase; Amcinafal; Amcinafide; Amfenac

Sodium; Amiprilose Hydrochloride; Anakinra; Anirolac; Anitrazafen; Apazone;

Balsalazide Disodium; Bendazac; Benoxaprofen; Benzydamine Hydrochloride;

Bromelains; Broperamole; Budesonide; Carprofen; Cicloprofen; Cintazone; Cliprofen; Clobetasol Propionate; Clobetasone Butyrate; Clopirac; Cloticasone Propionate;

Cormethasone Acetate; Cortodoxone; Deflazacort; Desonide; Desoximetasone;

Dexamethasone Dipropionate; Diclofenac Potassium; Diclofenac Sodium; Diflorasone

Diacetate; Diflumidone Sodium; Diflunisal; Difluprednate; Diftalone; Dimethyl

Sulfoxide; Drocinonide; Endrysone; Enlimomab; Enolicam Sodium; Epirizole; Etodolac; Etofenamate; Felbinac; Fenamole; Fenbufen; Fenclofenac; Fenclorac; Fendosal;

Fenpipalone; Fentiazac; Flazalone; Fluazacort; Flufenamic Acid; Flumizole; Flunisolide

Acetate; Flunixin; Flunixin Meglumine; Fluocortin Butyl; Fluorometholone Acetate;

Fluquazone; Flurbiprofen; Fluretofen; Fluticasone Propionate; Furaprofen; Furobufen;

Halcinonide; Halobetasol Propionate; Halopredone Acetate; Ibufenac; Ibuprofen; Ibuprofen Aluminum; Ibuprofen Piconol; Ilonidap; Indomethacin; Indomethacin

Sodium; Indoprofen; Indoxole; Intrazole; Isoflupredone Acetate; Isoxepac; Isoxicam;

Ketoprofen; Lofemizole Hydrochloride; Lornoxicam; Loteprednol Etabonate;

Meclofenamate Sodium; Meclofenamic Acid; Meclorisone Dibutyrate; Mefenamic Acid;

Mesalamine; Meseclazone; Methylprednisolone Suleptanate; Morniflumate; Nabumetone; Naproxen; Naproxen Sodium; Naproxol; Nimazone; Olsalazine Sodium;

Orgotein; Orpanoxin; Oxaprozin; Oxyphenbutazone; Paranyline Hydrochloride;

Pentosan Polysulfate Sodium; Phenbutazone Sodium Glycerate; Pirfenidone; Piroxicam;

Piroxicam Cinnamate; Piroxicam Olamine; Pirprofen; Prednazate; Prifelone; Prodolic

Acid; Proquazone; Proxazole; Proxazole Citrate; Rimexolone; Romazarit; Salcolex; Salnacedin; Salsalate; Sanguinarium Chloride; Seclazone; Sermetacin; Sudoxicam;

Sulindac; Suprofen; Talmetacin; Talniflumate; Talosalate; Tebufelone; Tenidap; Tenidap

Sodium; Tenoxicam; Tesicam; Tesimide; Tetrydamine; Tiopinac; Tixocortol Pivalate;

Tolmetin; Tolmetin Sodium; Triclonide; Triflumidate; Zidometacin; Glucocorticoids or

Zomepirac Sodium. Exemplary anti-thrombotic agents and/or fibrinolytic agents include, but are not limited to: plasminogen (to plasmin via interactions of prekallikrein, kininogens, Factors XII, Xllla, plasminogen proactivator, and tissue plasminogen activator[TPA]) Streptokinase; Urokinase: Anisoylated Plasminogen-Streptokinase Activator Complex; Pro-Urokinase; (Pro-UK); rTPA (alteplase or activase; r denotes recombinant); rPro- UK; Abbokinase; Eminase; Sreptase Anagrelide Hydrochloride; Bivalirudin; Dalteparin Sodium; Danaparoid Sodium; Dazoxiben Hydrochloride; Efegatran Sulfate; Enoxaparin Sodium; Ifetroban; Ifetroban Sodium; Tinzaparin Sodium; retaplase; Trifenagrel; Warfarin; Dextrans.

Exemplary anti-platelet agents include, but are not limited to: Clopridogrel; Sulfinpyrazone; Aspirin; Dipyridamole; Clofibrate; Pyridinol Carbamate; PGE; Glucagon; Antiserotonin drugs; Caffeine; Theophyllin Pentoxifyllin; Ticlopidine; Anagrelide.

Exemplary lipid reducing agents include, but are not limited to: gemfibrozil, cholystyramine, colestipol, nicotinic acid, probucol lovastatin, fluvastatin, simvastatin, atorvastatin, pravastatin, or cirivastatin. In preferred embodiments, the lipid reducing agent is pravastatin.

Exemplary direct thrombin inhibitors include, but are not limited to: hirudin, hirugen, hirulog, agatroban, PPACK, thrombin aptamers.

Exemplary glycoprotein Ilb/IIa receptor inhibitors include, but are not limited to: antibodies and non-antibodies, such as ReoPro (abcixamab), lamifiban, tirofiban. As used herein, "calcium channel blockers" refers to a chemically diverse class of compounds having important therapeutic value in the control of a variety of diseases including several cardiovascular disorders, such as hypertension, angina, and cardiac arrhythmias (Fleckenstein, Cir. Res. v. 52, (suppl. 1), p.13-16 (1983); Fleckenstein, Experimental Facts and Therapeutic Prospects, John Wiley, New York (1983); McCall, D., CurrPract Cardiol, v. 10, p. 1-11 (1985)). Calcium channel blockers are a heterogenous group of drugs that prevent or slow the entry of calcium into cells by regulating cellular calcium channels. (Remington, The Science and Practice of Pharmacy, Nineteenth Edition, Mack Publishing Company, Eaton, PA, p.963 (1995)). Most of the currently available calcium channel blockers, and useful according to the present invention, belong to one of three major chemical groups of drugs, the dihydropyridines, such as nifedipine, the phenyl alkyl amines, such as verapamil, and the benzothiazepines, such as diltiazem. Other calcium channel blockers useful according to the invention, include, but are not limited to, amrinone, amlodipine, bencyclane, felodipine, fendiline, flunarizine, isradipine, nicardipine, nimodipine, perhexilene, gallopamil, tiapamil and tiapamil analogues (such as 1993RO-1 1-2933), phenytoin, barbiturates, and the peptides dynorphin, omega-conotoxin, and omega-agatoxin, and the like and/or pharmaceutically acceptable salts thereof.

As used herein, "beta-adrenergic receptor blocking agents" refers to a class of drugs that antagonize the cardiovascular effects of catecholamines in angina pectoris, hypertension, and cardiac arrhythmias. Beta-adrenergic receptor blockers include, but are not limited to, atenolol, acebutolol, alprenolol, befunolol, betaxolol, bunitrolol, carteolol, celiprolol, hedroxalol, indenolol, labetalol, levobunolol, mepindolol, methypranol, metindol, metoprolol, metrizoranolol, oxprenolol, pindolol, propranolol, practolol, practolol, sotalolnadolol, tiprenolol, tomalolol, timolol, bupranolol, penbutolol, trimepranol, 2-(3-(l,l-dimethylethyl)-amino-2-hydroxypropoxy)-3- pyridenecarbonitrilHCl, l-butylamino-3-(2,5-dichlorophenoxy)-2-propanol, 1- isopropylamino-3-(4-(2-cyclopropylmethoxyethyl)phenoxy)-2-propanol, 3- isopropylamino-l-(7-methylindan-4-yloxy)-2-butanol, 2-(3-t-butylamino-2-hydroxy- propylthio)-4-(5-carbamoyl-2-thienyl)thiazol,7-(2-hydroxy-3-t- butylaminpropoxy)phthalide. The above-identified compounds can be used as isomeric mixtures, or in their respective levorotating or dextrorotating form.

As used herein, cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) refers to a recently identified form of a cyclooxygenase. "Cyclooxygenase" is an enzyme complex present in most tissues that produces various prostaglandins and thromboxanes from arachidonic acid. Non- steroidal, antiinflammatory drugs exert most of their antiinflammatory, analgesic and antipyretic activity and inhibit hormone-induced uterine contractions and certain types of cancer growth through inhibition of the cyclooxygenase (also known as prostaglandin G/H synthase and/or prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase). Initially, only one form of cyclooxygenase was known, the "constitutive enzyme" or cyclooxygenase- 1 (COX-1). It was originally identified in bovine seminal vesicles. Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) has been cloned, sequenced and characterized initially from chicken, murine and human sources (See, e.g., U.S. Patent 5,543,297, issued August 6, 1996 to Cromlish , et al., and assigned to Merck Frosst Canada, Inc., Kirkland, CA, entitled: "Human cyclooxygenase-2 cDNA and assays for evaluating cyclooxygenase-2 activity"). This enzyme is distinct from the COX-1. COX-2, is rapidly and readily inducible by a number of agents including mitogens, endotoxin, hormones, cytokines and growth factors. As prostaglandins have both physiological and pathological roles, it is believed that the constitutive enzyme, COX-1, is responsible, in large part, for endogenous basal release of prostaglandins and hence is important in their physiological functions such as the maintenance of gastrointestinal integrity and renal blood flow. By contrast, it is believed that the inducible form, COX-2, is mainly responsible for the pathological effects of prostaglandins where rapid induction of the enzyme would occur in response to such agents as inflammatory agents, hormones, growth factors, and cytokines. Therefore, it is believed that a selective inhibitor of COX- 2 has similar antiinflammatory, antipyretic and analgesic properties to a conventional non-steroidal antiinflammatory drug, and in addition inhibits hormone-induced uterine contractions and also has potential anti-cancer effects, but with reduced side effects. In particular, such COX-2 inhibitors are believed to have a reduced potential for gastrointestinal toxicity, a reduced potential for renal side effects, a reduced effect on bleeding times and possibly a decreased potential to induce asthma attacks in aspirin- sensitive asthmatic subjects, and are therefore useful according to the present invention. A number of selective "COX-2 inhibitors" are known in the art. These include, but are not limited to, COX-2 inhibitors described in U.S. Patent 5,474,995 "Phenyl heterocycles as cox-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,521,213 "Diaryl bicyclic heterocycles as inhibitors of cyclooxygenase-2"; U.S. Patent 5,536,752 "Phenyl heterocycles as COX-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,550,142 "Phenyl heterocycles as COX-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,552,422 "Aryl substituted 5,5 fused aromatic nitrogen compounds as anti- inflammatory agents"; U.S. Patent 5,604,253 "N-benzylindol-3-yl propanoic acid derivatives as cyclooxygenase inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,604,260 "5- methanesulfonamido-1-indanones as an inhibitor of cyclooxygenase-2"; U.S. Patent 5,639,780 N-benzyl indol-3-yl butanoic acid derivatives as cyclooxygenase inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,677,318 Diphenyl-l,2-3-thiadiazoles as anti-inflammatory agents"; U.S. Patent 5,691,374 "Diaryl-5-oxygenated-2-(5H) -furanones as COX-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,698,584 "3,4-diaryl-2-hydroxy-2,5-dihydrofurans as prodrugs to COX-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,710,140 "Phenyl heterocycles as COX-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,733,909 "Diphenyl stilbenes as prodrugs to COX-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,789,413 "Alkylated styrenes as prodrugs to COX-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,817,700 "Bisaryl cyclobutenes derivatives as cyclooxygenase inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,849,943 "Stilbene derivatives useful as cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,861,419 "Substituted pyridines as selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors"; U.S. Patent 5,925,631 "Alkylated styrenes as prodrugs to COX-2 inhibitors"; all of which are commonly assigned to Merck Frosst Canada, Inc. (Kirkland, CA). Additional COX-2 inhibitors are also described in U.S. Patent 5,643,933, assigned to G. P. Searle & Co. (Skokie, IL), entitled: "Substituted sulfonylphenylheterocycles as cyclooxygenase-2 and 5- lipoxygenase inhibitors."

A number of the above-identified COX-2 inhibitors are prodrugs of selective COX-2 inhibitors, and exert their action by conversion in vivo to the active and selective COX-2 inhibitors. The active and selective COX-2 inhibitors formed from the above- identified COX-2 inhibitor prodrugs are described in detail in WO 95/00501, published January 5, 1995, WO 95/18799, published July 13, 1995 and U.S. Patent 5,474,995, issued December 12, 1995. Given the teachings of U.S. Patent 5,543,297, entitled: "Human cyclooxygenase-2 cDNA and assays for evaluating cyclooxygenase-2 activity," a person of ordinary skill in the art would be able to determine whether an agent is a selective COX-2 inhibitor or a precursor of a COX-2 inhibitor, and therefore part of the present invention.

Exemplary cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors include, but are not limited to: a phenyl heterocycle, a diaryl bicyclic heterocycle, an aryl substituted 5,5 fused aromatic nitrogen compound, an N-benzylindol-3-yl propanoic acid and/or its derivatives, a 5- methanesulfonamido-1-indanone, an N-benzyl indol-3-yl butanoic acid and/or its derivatives, a diphenyl- 1,2-3-thiadiazole, a diaryl-5-oxygenated-2-(5H) -furanone, a 3,4-diaryl-2-hydroxy-2,5-dihydrofuran, stilbene and/or its derivatives, a diphenyl stilbene, an alkylated styrene, a bisaryl cyclobutene and/or its derivatives, a substituted pyridine, a pyridinyl-2-cyclopenten-l-one, and/or a substituted sulfonylphenylheterocycle. As used herein, an "angiotensin system inhibitor" refers to an agent that interferes with the function, synthesis or catabolism of angiotensin II. These agents include, but are not limited to, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, angiotensin II antagonists, angiotensin II receptor antagonists, agents that activate the catabolism of angiotensin II, and agents that prevent the synthesis of angiotensin I from which angiotensin II is ultimately derived. The renin-angiotensin system is involved in the regulation of hemodynamics and water and electrolyte balance. Factors that lower blood volume, renal perfusion pressure, or the concentration of Na⁺ in plasma tend to activate the system, while factors that increase these parameters tend to suppress its function. Angiotensin I and angiotensin II are synthesized by the enzymatic renin- angiotensin pathway. The synthetic process is initiated when the enzyme renin acts on angiotensinogen, a pseudoglobulin in blood plasma, to produce the decapeptide angiotensin I. Angiotensin I is converted by angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) to angiotensin II (angiotensin-[l-8] octapeptide). The latter is an active pressor substance which has been implicated as a causative agent in several forms of hypertension in various mammalian species, e.g., humans.

Angiotensin (renin-angiotensin) system inhibitors are compounds that act to interfere with the production of angiotensin II from angiotensinogen or angiotensin I or interfere with the activity of angiotensin II. Such inhibitors are well known to those of ordinary skill in the art and include compounds that act to inhibit the enzymes involved in the ultimate production of angiotensin II, including renin and ACE. They also include compounds that interfere with the activity of angiotensin II, once produced. Examples of classes of such compounds include antibodies (e.g., to renin), amino acids and analogs thereof (including those conjugated to larger molecules), peptides (including peptide analogs of angiotensin and angiotensin I), pro-renin related analogs, etc. Among the most potent and useful renin-angiotensin system inhibitors are renin inhibitors, ACE inhibitors, and angiotensin II antagonists. In a preferred embodiment of the invention, the renin-angiotensin system inhibitors are renin inhibitors, ACE inhibitors, and angiotensin II antagonists. "Angiotensin II antagonists" are compounds which interfere with the activity of angiotensin II by binding to angiotensin II receptors and interfering with its activity. Angiotensin II antagonists are well known and include peptide compounds and non- peptide compounds. Most angiotensin II antagonists are slightly modified congeners in which agonist activity is attenuated by replacement of phenylalanine in position 8 with some other amino acid; stability can be enhanced by other replacements that slow degeneration in vivo. Examples of angiotensin II antagonists include: peptidic compounds (e.g., saralasin, [(San¹⁾(Val⁵)(Ala⁸)] angiotensin -(1-8) octapeptide and related analogs); N-substituted imidazole-2-one (US Patent Number 5,087,634); imidazole acetate derivatives including 2-N-butyl-4-chloro-l-(2-chlorobenzile) imidazole-5-acetic acid (see Long et al., J. Pharmacol. Exp. Ther. 247(1), 1-7 (1988)); 4, 5, 6, 7-tetrahydro-lH-imidazo [4, 5-c] pyridine-6-carboxylic acid and analog derivatives (US Patent Number 4,816,463); N2-tetrazole beta-glucuronide analogs (US Patent Number 5,085,992); substituted pyrroles, pyrazoles, and tryazoles (US Patent Number 5,081,127); phenol and heterocyclic derivatives such as 1, 3-imidazoles (US Patent Number 5,073,566); imidazo-fused 7-member ring heterocycles (US Patent Number 5,064,825); peptides (e.g., US Patent Number 4,772,684); antibodies to angiotensin II (e.g., US Patent Number 4,302,386); and aralkyl imidazole compounds such as biphenyl- methyl substituted imidazoles (e.g., EP Number 253,310, January 20, 1988); ES8891 (N- morpholinoacetyl-(-l-naphthyl)-L-alanyl-(4, thiazolyl)-L-alanyl (35, 45)-4-amino-3- hydroxy-5-cyclo-hexapentanoyl-N-hexylamide, Sankyo Company, Ltd., Tokyo, Japan); SKF108566 (E-alpha-2-[2-butyl-l-(carboxy phenyl) methyl] lH-imidazole-5- yl[methylane]-2-thiophenepropanoic acid, Smith Kline Beecham Pharmaceuticals, PA); Losartan (TJUP753/MK954, DuPont Merck Pharmaceutical Company); Remikirin (RO42-5892, F. Hoffman LaRoche AG); A₂ agonists (Marion Merrill Dow) and certain non-peptide heterocycles (G.D.Searle and Company). "Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), is an enzyme which catalyzes the conversion of angiotensin I to angiotensin II. ACE inhibitors include amino acids and derivatives thereof, peptides, including di and tri peptides and antibodies to ACE which intervene in the renin-angiotensin system by inhibiting the activity of ACE thereby reducing or eliminating the formation of pressor substance angiotensin II. ACE inhibitors have been used medically to treat hypertension, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction and renal disease. Classes of compounds known to be useful as ACE inhibitors include acylmercapto and mercaptoalkanoyl prolines such as captopril (US Patent Number 4,105,776) and zofenopril (US Patent Number 4,316,906), carboxyalkyl dipeptides such as enalapril (US Patent Number 4,374,829), lisinopril (US Patent Number 4,374,829), quinapril (US Patent Number 4,344,949), ramipril (US Patent Number 4,587,258), and perindopril (US Patent Number 4,508,729), carboxyalkyl dipeptide mimics such as cilazapril (US Patent Number 4,512,924) and benazapril (US Patent Number 4,410,520), phosphinylalkanoyl prolines such as fosinopril (US Patent Number 4,337,201) and trandolopril.

As used herein, "renin inhibitors" are compounds which interfere with the activity of renin. Renin inhibitors include amino acids and derivatives thereof, peptides and derivatives thereof, and antibodies to renin. Examples of renin inhibitors that are the subject of United States patents are as follows: urea derivatives of peptides (US Patent Number 5,116,835); amino acids connected by nonpeptide bonds (US Patent Number 5,114,937); di and tri peptide derivatives (US Patent Number 5,106,835); amino acids and derivatives thereof (US Patent Numbers 5, 104,869 and 5,095, 119); diol sulfonamides and sulfinyls (US Patent Number 5,098,924); modified peptides (US Patent Number 5,095,006); peptidyl beta-aminoacyl aminodiol carbamates (US Patent Number 5,089,471); pyrolimidazolones (US Patent Number 5,075,451); fluorine and chlorine statine or statone containing peptides (US Patent Number 5,066,643); peptidyl amino diols (US Patent Numbers 5,063,208 and 4,845,079); N-morpholino derivatives (US Patent Number 5,055,466); pepstatin derivatives (US Patent Number 4,980,283); N- heterocyclic alcohols (US Patent Number 4,885,292); monoclonal antibodies to renin (US Patent Number 4,780,401); and a variety of other peptides and analogs thereof (US Patent Numbers 5,071,837, 5,064,965, 5,063,207, 5,036,054, 5,036,053, 5,034,512, and 4,894,437).

Exemplary angiotensin system inhibitors include, but are not limited to: an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, an angiotensin II antagonist, an angiotensin II receptor antagonist, agents that activate the catabolism of angiotensin II, and/or agents that prevent the synthesis of angiotensin I. As used herein, agents that bind to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibit the ability of white blood cells to attach to such molecules include polypeptide agents, such as polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies, prepared according to conventional methodology. Such antibodies already are known in the art and include anti-ICAM 1 antibodies as well as other such antibodies. Significantly, as is well-known in the art, only a small portion of an antibody molecule, the paratope, is involved in the binding of the antibody to its epitope (see, in general, Clark, W.R. (1986) The Experimental Foundations of Modern Immunology, Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York; Roitt, I. (1991) Essential Immunology, 7th Ed., Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford). The pFc' and Fc regions, for example, are effectors of the complement cascade but are not involved in antigen binding. An antibody from which the pFc' region has been enzymatically cleaved, or which has been produced without the pFc' region, designated an F(ab')₂ fragment, retains both of the antigen binding sites of an intact antibody. Similarly, an antibody from which the Fc region has been enzymatically cleaved, or which has been produced without the Fc region, designated an Fab fragment, retains one of the antigen binding sites of an intact antibody molecule. Proceeding further, Fab fragments consist of a covalently bound antibody light chain and a portion of the antibody heavy chain denoted Fd. The Fd fragments are the major determinant of antibody specificity (a single Fd Fragment may be associated with up to ten different light chains without altering antibody specificity) and Fd fragments retain epitope- binding ability in isolation. Within the antigen-binding portion of an antibody, as is well-known in the art, there are complementarity determining regions (CDRs), which directly interact with the epitope of the antigen, and framework regions (Frs), which maintain the tertiary structure of the paratope (see, in general, Clar, 1986; Roitt, 1991). In both the heavy chain Fd fragment and the light chain of IgG immunoglobulins, there are four framework regions (FRl through FR4) separated respectively by three complementarity determining regions (CDR1 through CDR3). The CDRs, and in particular the CDR3 regions, and more particularly the heavy chain CDR3, are largely responsible for antibody specificity.

It is now well-established in the art that the non-CDR regions of a mammalian antibody may be replaced with similar regions of conspecific or heterospecific antibodies while retaining the epitopic specificity of the original antibody. This is most clearly manifested in the development and use of "humanized" antibodies in which non-human CDRs are covalently joined to human FR and/or Fc/pFc' regions to produce a functional antibody. Thus, for example, PCT International Publication Number WO 92/04381 teaches the production and use of humanized murine RSV antibodies in which at least a portion of the murine FR regions have been replaced by FR regions of human origin. Such antibodies, including fragments of intact antibodies with antigen-binding ability, are often referred to as "chimeric" antibodies.

Thus, as will be apparent to one of ordinary skill in the art, the present invention also provides for F(ab')₂, Fab, Fv and Fd fragments; chimeric antibodies in which the Fc and/or Fr and/or CDRl and/or CDR2 and/or light chain CDR3 regions have been replaced by homologous human or non-human sequences; chimeric F(ab')₂ fragment antibodies in which the FR and/or CDRl and/or CDR2 and/or light chain CDR3 regions have been replaced by homologous human or non-human sequences; chimeric Fab fragment antibodies in which the FR and/or CDRl and/or CDR2 and/or light chain CDR3 regions have been replaced by homologous human or non-human sequences; and chimeric Fd fragment antibodies in which the FR and/or CDRl and/or CDR2 regions have been replaced by homologous human or nonhuman sequences. The present invention also includes so-called single chain antibodies.

Thus, the invention involves polypeptides of numerous size and type that bind specifically to cellular adhesion molecules. These polypeptides may be derived also from sources other than antibody technology. For example, such polypeptide binding agents can be provided by degenerate peptide libraries which can be readily prepared in solution, in immobilized form or as phage display libraries. Combinatorial libraries also can be synthesized of peptides containing one or more amino acids. Libraries further can be synthesized of peptoids and non-peptide synthetic moieties. Phage display can be particularly effective in identifying binding peptides useful according to the invention. Briefly, one prepares a phage library (using e.g. ml 3, fd, or lambda phage), displaying inserts from 4 to about 80 amino acid residues using conventional procedures. The inserts may represent, for example, a completely degenerate or biased array. One then can select phage-bearing inserts which bind to the cellular adhesion molecule. This process can be repeated through several cycles of reselection of phage that bind to the cellular adhesion molecule. Repeated rounds lead to enrichment of phage bearing particular sequences. DNA sequences analysis can be conducted to identify the sequences of the expressed polypeptides. The minimal linear portion of the sequence that binds to the cellular adhesion molecule can be determined. One can repeat the procedure using a biased library containing inserts containing part of all of the minimal linear portion plus one or more additional degenerate residues upstream or downstream thereof. Yeast two-hybrid screening methods also may be used to identify polypeptides that bind to the cellular adhesion molecules. Thus, cellular adhesion molecules, or a fragment thereof, can be used to screen peptide libraries, including phage display libraries, to identify and select peptide binding partners of the cellular adhesion molecules.

According to yet another aspect of the invention, a method for treating a subject to reduce the risk of a cardiovascular disorder is provided. The method involves selecting and administering to a subject who is known to have a below-normal blood gelsolin level, an agent for reducing the risk of the cardiovascular disorder. Thus, the agent is administered to a subject selected on the basis of having a below-normal level of gelsolin. The therapeutic agent can be an anti-inflammatory agent, an antithrombotic agent, an anti-platelet agent, a fibrinolytic agent, a lipid reducing agent, a direct thrombin inhibitor, a glycoprotein Ilb/IIIa receptor inhibitor, a calcium channel blocker, a beta- adrenergic receptor blocker, a cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor, an angiotensin system inhibitor, an agent that binds to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibits the ability of white blood cells to attach to such molecules, and/or combinations thereof. Exemplary agents in each of the foregoing categories are provided above.

According to this aspect of the invention, the agent for reducing the risk of the cardiovascular disorder (alternatively referred to herein as a "therapeutic agent") is administered in an amount effective to lower the risk of the subject developing a future cardiovascular disorder. The extent to which the risk is lowered can be determined by measuring the subject's blood gelsolin levels and/or other markers of cardiovascular disease including, e.g., inflammatory markers such as CRP.

The preferred subjects for treatment are apparently healthy subjects who are otherwise free of symptoms calling for treatment with any of the foregoing therapeutic agents. For example, with respect to anti-inflammatory agents, subjects who are otherwise free of symptoms include subjects free of symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis, chronic back pain, autoimmune diseases, vascular diseases, viral diseases, malignancies, and the like. In further important embodiments, the subjects are not at an elevated risk of an adverse cardiovascular event (e.g., subjects with no family history of such events, subjects who are nonsmokers, subjects who are nonhyperlipidemic), other than having a reduced blood gelsolin level. In yet other embodiments, the subject for treatment may already have had a cardiovascular event, such as a heart attack or an angioplasty and the therapeutic agent is administered to the subject to reduce the risk of a further cardiovascular event. The invention is particularly useful for determining which subjects will preferentially benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing the risk in the subjects of a cardiovascular disorder as described herein. It also permits selection of candidate populations for clinical trials and for treatment with candidate drugs, by identifying, for example, the subjects most likely to benefit from a new treatment or from a known treatment with a high risk profile of adverse side effects. Thus, the invention provides information for evaluating the likely net benefit of certain treatments for candidate patients.

According to the invention, a blood gelsolin level is obtained for a subject. The blood gelsolin level can be obtained by any art-recognized method, as well as by the particular methods disclosed in the Examples. Typically, the level is determined by measuring the level of the marker in a body fluid, for example, blood or blood components such as plasma and serum. The level can be determined by ELISA, or immunoassays or other conventional techniques for determining the presence of a marker such as gelsolin. Conventional methods include sending samples of a patient's body fluid to a commercial laboratory for measurement.

The invention also involves comparing the blood gelsolin level for the subject with a predetermined value. The predetermined value can take a variety of forms. It can be single cut-off value, such as a median or mean. It can be established based upon comparative groups, such as where the risk in one defined group is double the risk in another defined group. It can be a range, for example, where the tested population is divided equally (or unequally) into groups, such as a low-risk group, a medium-risk group and a high-risk group, or into quadrants, the lowest quadrant being subjects with the highest risk and the highest quadrant being subjects with the lowest risk as shown in the examples.

The predetermined value can depend upon the particular population selected. For example, an apparently healthy, nonsmoker population (no detectable disease and no prior history of a cardiovascular disorder) will have a different 'normal' range of gelsolin than will a smoking population or a population the members of which have had a prior cardiovascular disorder. Accordingly, the predetermined values selected may take into account the category in which a subject falls. Appropriate ranges and categories can be selected with no more than routine experimentation by those of ordinary skill in the art. The preferred body fluid is blood. For gelsolin, one important cut-off for a population of apparently healthy, nonsmokers is above 300 ng/mL blood. Another important cut-off for gelsolin is below 150 ng/mL blood. In characterizing risk, numerous predetermined values can be established. There presently are commercial sources which produce reagents for assays for gelsolin. In preferred embodiments the invention provides novel kits or assays which are specific for, and have appropriate sensitivity with respect to, predetermined values selected on the basis of the present invention. The preferred kits, therefore, would differ from those presently commercially available, by including, for example, different cut- offs, different sensitivities at particular cut-offs as well as instructions or other printed material for characterizing risk based upon the outcome of the assay.

As discussed above the invention provides methods for evaluating the likelihood that a subject will benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing risk of a future cardiovascular disorder. This method has important implications for patient treatment and also for clinical development of new therapeutics. Physicians select therapeutic regimens for patient treatment based upon the expected net benefit to the patient. The net benefit is derived from the risk to benefit ratio. The present invention permits selection of subjects who are more likely to benefit by intervention, thereby aiding the physician in selecting a therapeutic regimen. This might include using drugs with a higher risk profile where the likelihood of expected benefit has increased. Likewise, clinical investigators desire to select for clinical trials a population with a high likelihood of obtaining a net benefit. The present invention can help clinical investigators select such subjects. It is expected that clinical investigators now will use the present invention for determining entry criteria for clinical trials.

In another surprising aspect of the invention, it has been discovered that gelsolin has predictive value independent of other known predictors of future adverse cardiovascular disorders. Thus, the present invention does not involve simply duplicating a measurement that previously could be made using other predictors. Instead, levels of gelsolin are additive to prior art predictors. Prior art predictors include markers of systemic inflammation, such as C-Reactive Protein, cytokines, and cellular adhesion molecules. Cytokines are well-known to those of ordinary skill in the art and include human interleukins 1-17. Cellular adhesion molecules are well-known to those of ordinary skill in the art and include integrins, ICAM-1, ICAM-3, BL-CAM, LFA-2, VCAM-1, NCAM, and PEC AM. Prior art predictors also include cholesterol. An effective amount is a dosage of the agent for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder sufficient to provide a medically desirable result. The effective amount will vary with the particular condition being treated, the age and physical condition of the subject being treated, the severity of the condition, the duration of the treatment, the nature of the concurrent therapy (if any), the specific route of administration and the like factors within the knowledge and expertise of the health practitioner. For example, an effective amount can depend upon the degree to which a subject has abnormally reduced levels of gelsolin. It should be understood that the agents for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder of the invention are used to prevent cardiovascular disorders, that is, they are used prophylactically in subjects at risk of developing a cardiovascular disorder. Thus, an effective amount is that amount which can lower the risk of, slow or perhaps prevent altogether the development of a cardiovascular disorder. When the agent is one that binds to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibits the ability of white blood cells to attach to such molecules, then the agent may be used prophylactically or may be used in acute circumstances, for example, post- myocardial infarction or post-angioplasty. It will be recognized when the agent is used in acute circumstances, it is used to prevent one or more medically undesirable results that typically flow from such adverse events. In the case of myocardial infarction, the agent can be used to limit injury to the cardiovascular tissue which develops as a result of the myocardial infarction and in the case of restenosis the agent can be used in amounts effective to inhibit, prevent or slow the reoccurrence of blockage. In either case, it is an amount sufficient to inhibit the infiltration of white blood cells and transmigration of white blood cells into the damaged tissue, which white blood cells can result in further damage and/or complications relating to the injury.

Generally, doses of active compounds would be from about 0.01 mg/kg per day to 1000 mg/kg per day. It is expected that doses ranging from 50-500 mg/kg will be suitable, preferably orally and in one or several administrations per day. Lower doses will result from other forms of administration, such as intravenous administration. In the event that a response in a subject is insufficient at the initial doses applied, higher doses (or effectively higher doses by a different, more localized delivery route) may be employed to the extent that patient tolerance permits. Multiple doses per day are contemplated to achieve appropriate systemic levels of compounds. When administered, the pharmaceutical preparations of the invention are applied in pharmaceutically-acceptable amounts and in pharmaceutically-acceptably compositions. Such preparations may routinely contain salt, buffering agents, preservatives, compatible carriers, and optionally other therapeutic agents. When used in medicine, the salts should be pharmaceutically acceptable, but non-pharmaceutically acceptable salts may conveniently be used to prepare pharmaceutically-acceptable salts thereof and are not excluded from the scope of the invention. Such pharmacologically and pharmaceutically-acceptable salts include, but are not limited to, those prepared from the following acids: hydrochloric, hydrobromic, sulfuric, nitric, phosphoric, maleic, acetic, salicylic, citric, formic, malonic, succinic, and the like. Also, pharmaceutically- acceptable salts can be prepared as alkaline metal or alkaline earth salts, such as sodium, potassium or calcium salts.

The agents for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder may be combined, optionally, with a pharmaceutically-acceptable carrier. The term "pharmaceutically- acceptable carrier" as used herein means one or more compatible solid or liquid filler, diluents or encapsulating substances which are suitable for administration into a human. The term "carrier" denotes an organic or inorganic ingredient, natural or synthetic, with which the active ingredient is combined to facilitate the application. The components of the pharmaceutical compositions also are capable of being co-mingled with the molecules of the present invention, and with each other, in a manner such that there is no interaction which would substantially impair the desired pharmaceutical efficacy. The pharmaceutical compositions may contain suitable buffering agents, including: acetic acid in a salt; citric acid in a salt; boric acid in a salt; and phosphoric acid in a salt.

The pharmaceutical compositions also may contain, optionally, suitable preservatives, such as: benzalkonium chloride; chlorobutanol; parabens and thimerosal. Compositions suitable for parenteral administration conveniently comprise a sterile aqueous preparation of the agent for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder which is preferably isotonic with the blood of the recipient. This aqueous preparation may be formulated according to known methods using suitable dispersing or wetting agents and suspending agents. The sterile injectable preparation also may be a sterile injectable solution or suspension in a non-toxic parenterally-acceptable diluent or solvent, for example, as a solution in 1,3-butane diol. Among the acceptable vehicles and solvents that may be employed are water, Ringer's solution, and isotonic sodium chloride solution. In addition, sterile, fixed oils are conventionally employed as a solvent or suspending medium. For this purpose any bland fixed oil may be employed including synthetic mono- or di-glycerides. In addition, fatty acids such as oleic acid may be used in the preparation of injectables. Carrier formulation suitable for oral, subcutaneous, intravenous, intramuscular, etc. administrations can be found in Remington's Pharmaceutical Sciences, Mack Publishing Co., Easton, PA.

A variety of administration routes are available. The particular mode selected will depend, of course, upon the particular drug selected, the severity of the condition being treated and the dosage required for therapeutic efficacy. The methods of the invention, generally speaking, may be practiced using any mode of administration that is medically acceptable, meaning any mode that produces effective levels of the active compounds without causing clinically unacceptable adverse effects. Such modes of administration include oral, rectal, topical, nasal, intradermal, or parenteral routes. The term "parenteral" includes subcutaneous, intravenous, intramuscular, or infusion. Intravenous or intramuscular routes are not particularly suitable for long-term therapy and prophylaxis. They could, however, be preferred in emergency situations. Oral administration will be preferred for prophylactic treatment because of the convenience to the patient as well as the dosing schedule. The pharmaceutical compositions may conveniently be presented in unit dosage form and may be prepared by any of the methods well-known in the art of pharmacy. All methods include the step of bringing the agent for reducing the risk of cardiovascular disorder into association with a carrier which constitutes one or more accessory ingredients. In general, the compositions are prepared by uniformly and intimately bringing the agent for reducing the risk of cardiovascular disorder into association with a liquid carrier, a finely divided solid carrier, or both, and then, if necessary, shaping the product.

Compositions suitable for oral administration may be presented as discrete units, such as capsules, tablets, lozenges, each containing a predetermined amount of the agent for reducing the risk of cardiovascular disorder. Other compositions include suspensions in aqueous liquids or non-aqueous liquids such as a syrup, elixir or an emulsion.

Other delivery systems can include time-release, delayed release or sustained release delivery systems. Such systems can avoid repeated administrations of an agent of the present invention, increasing convenience to the subject and the physician. Many types of release delivery systems are available and known to those of ordinary skill in the art. They include polymer base systems such as poly(lactide-glycolide), copolyoxalates, polycaprolactones, polyesteramides, polyorthoesters, polyhydroxybutyric acid, and polyanhydrides. Microcapsules of the foregoing polymers containing drugs are described in, for example, U.S. Patent 5,075,109. Delivery systems also include non- polymer systems that are: lipids including sterols such as cholesterol, cholesterol esters and fatty acids or neutral fats such as mono- di- and tri-glycerides; hydrogel release systems; sylastic systems; peptide based systems; wax coatings; compressed tablets using conventional binders and excipients; partially fused implants; and the like. Specific examples include, but are not limited to: (a) erosional systems in which an agent of the invention is contained in a form within a matrix such as those described in U.S. Patent Nos. 4,452,775, 4,675,189, and 5,736,152, and (b) diffusional systems in which an active component permeates at a controlled rate from a polymer such as described in U.S. Patent Nos. 3,854,480, 5,133,974 and 5,407,686. In addition, pump-based hardware delivery systems can be used, some of which are adapted for implantation.

Use of a long-term sustained release implant may be particularly suitable for treatment of chronic conditions. Long-term release, are used herein, means that the implant is constructed and arranged to deliver therapeutic levels of the active ingredient for at least 30 days, and preferably 60 days. Long-term sustained release implants are well-known to those of ordinary skill in the art and include some of the release systems described above. The invention will be more fully understood by reference to the following example. This example, however, is merely intended to illustrate the embodiments of the invention and is not to be construed to limit the scope of the invention.

EXAMPLES EXAMPLE 1. GELSOLIN ASSAY USING ACTIN NUCLEATION

RATE

A plasma or serum sample is diluted 1:5 in 0.1 M KC1, 0.2 mM MgCl₂, 1 mM EGTA, 0.5 mM ATP, 0.5 mM β-mercaptoethanol, 10 mM Tris-HCl buffer, pH 7.4 (Solution B). Of the diluted plasma/serum sample, 5 ml is added to 280 ml Solution B in 6 x 50 mm borosilicate culture tubes. The actin polymerization reaction is initiated by adding 15 ml 20 μM pyrene actin in 0.5 mM ATP, 0.2 mM MgCl₂, 5 mM β- mercaptoethanol, 0.2 mM CaCl₂, 0.2 mM Tris-HCl buffer, pH 7.4 (Solution A). Polymerization is monitored for 240 seconds in a FluoroMasx-2 Jobin Yvon-Spex spectrofluorimeter (or equivalent device) at excitation and emission wavelengths of 366 and 386 nm respectively. Gelsolin concentrations are estimated from a standard curve using recombinant human plasma gelsolin. Stock pyrene actin for these assays, prepared by the method of Kouyama and Mihashi (Eur J Biochem 1 14:33-38, 1981) or purchased from a commercial source, is stored at -70°C in lots, thawed and diluted lOx with Solution A, centrifuged at 250k x g for 30 minutes after standing overnight.

EXAMPLE 2. CLINICAL PROTOCOL The following Example illustrates the selection of subjects, controls, samples, laboratory analysis, and statistical analysis for practicing certain aspects of the invention. This Example is consistent with standard clinical practice and is modeled on the clinical example provided in U.S.6,040,147, the entire contents of which are incorporated herein by reference. This example is illustrative only and should not be construed as limiting the invention in any way. Subjects

Potentially eligible participants are asked to provide baseline blood samples during a several week period during which some subjects may be given aspirin. Optionally, blood collection kits including EDTA vacutainer tubes are sent to participants with instructions for taking blood. Participants are asked to have their blood drawn into the EDTA tubes, centrifuge the tubes, and return the plasma (accompanied by a provided cold pack) by overnight courier. Upon return, specimens are aliquotted and stored at -80°C. Specimens are not thawed during storage. Selection of Controls

Hospital records (and for fatal events, death certificates and necropsy reports) are requested for all reported cases of myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease. Records are reviewed by a committee of physicians using standardized criteria to confirm or refute reported events. Endpoint reviewers are blinded to treatment assignment.

Reported myocardial infarction is confirmed if the event meets the World Health Organization criteria of symptoms plus either elevated enzymes or characteristic electrocardiographic changes. Silent myocardial infarctions are not included since they cannot be dated accurately. Deaths due to coronary disease are confirmed based on autopsy reports, symptoms, circumstances of death, and prior history of coronary disease. Reported stroke is confirmed based on medical records showing neurological deficit of sudden or rapid onset persisting for more than 24 hours or until death. Strokes are classified as ischemic or hemorrhagic. Reported pulmonary embolism is confirmed by positive angiogram or completed ventilation-perfusion scan demonstrating at least two segmental perfusion defects with normal ventilation. Peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease is confirmed in accordance with standard clinical practice. In an ideal study, each participant who provides an adequate baseline plasma sample and has a confirmed myocardial infarction, stroke, or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease after randomization is matched to one control. Controls can be subjects, such as participating physicians, who provide baseline plasma samples and report no cardiovascular disease at the time the case reports the event. Controls are randomly selected from study participants who meet the matching criteria of age (+/- one year), smoking habit (current, past, or never), and time since randomization (six month intervals). Using these methods, an approximately equal number of cases and controls are evaluated in this prospective nested case-control design. Collection of Plasma Samples and Laboratory Analysis

For each case and control, plasma collected and stored at baseline is thawed and assayed for gelsolin using the above-described actin nucleation rate assay or other equivalent method to measure gelsolin levels. Additional markers, such as C-reactive protein, are assayed in accordance with standard methods. (See, e.g., U.S. Patent No. 6,040,147, entitled, "Systemic inflammatory markers as diagnostic tools in the prevention of atherosclerotic diseases and as tools to aid in the selection of agents to be used for the prevention and treatment of atherosclerotic disease", issued to P. Rider and C. Hennekens). Methods used to measure total and HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, lipoprotein(a), total plasma homocysteine, fibrinogen, D-dimer, and endogenous tissue- type plasminogen activator (tPA) antigen have been described elsewhere (Stampfer MJ, et al., NEnglJMed, 1991, 325:373-81; Ridker PM, et al, JAΛ4A, 1993, 270:2195-2199; Ridker PM, et al., Circulation, 1997, 95:1777-82; Ridker PM, et al., Lancet, 1993, 341:1165-1168; Ridker PM, et al., Circulation, 1994, 90:2236-2240).

Blood specimens are analyzed in blinded pairs with the position of the case varied at random within pairs to reduce the possibility of systematic bias and decrease interassay variability. The mean coefficient of variation for gelsolin across assay runs is determined using standard statistical analysis. Statistical analysis

Means or proportions for baseline risk factors are calculated for cases and controls. The significance of any difference in means is tested using the Student's t-test and the significance of any differences in proportions tested using the Chi square statistic. The significance of any differences in median values between cases and controls is assessed using Wilcoxon's Rank Sum Test. Geometric mean gelsolin levels are also optionally computed after log transformation. Tests for trends are used to assess any relationship of decreasing levels of gelsolin with risks of future vascular disease after dividing the sample into quartiles that, preferably, are defined by the distribution of the control values. Adjusted estimates are obtained using conditional logistic regression models accounting for the matching variables and controlling for randomized treatment assignment, body mass index, diabetes, history of hypertension, and a parental history of coronary artery disease. Similar models are employed to adjust for measured baseline levels of inflammatory markers, total and HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, lipoprotein(a), tPA antigen, fibrinogen, D-dimer, and homocysteine. To evaluate whether aspirin affects these relationships, analyses are repeated for all myocardial infarction or other cardiovascular events occurring in subjects not receiving aspirin. P values and confidence intervals are determined. Anticipated Results

U.S. Patent No. 6,040,147 describes various baseline characteristics of participants in a study which measured various systemic inflammatory markers as diagnostic tools in the prevention of atherosclerotic disease. These characteristics include smoking status (never, past, current), diabetes, body mass index, history of high cholesterol, history of hypertension, and parental history of coronary artery disease. Previously published systemic inflammatory markers include those noted above. In addition, estrogen receptor genotype has recently been proposed as a risk factor for coronary disease in post menopausal women (NEJM 346:967, 2002, Mar, 28, 2002). It is anticipated that a reduced plasma gelsolin level (alone or in combination with one or more other previously published markers) is predictive of a subject's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease.

Geometric mean and median levels of baseline gelsolin are determined and are expected to be significantly lower among those participants who subsequently develop any vascular event compared to those who do not. The difference between cases and controls is expected to be significant for those who subsequently develop myocardial infarction, stroke (particularly those of ischemic etiology), and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease.

It is anticipated that baseline levels of gelsolin among study participants who remain free of vascular disease during follow-up (controls) are significantly greater (range: 150 ng/mL to 300 ng/mL, inclusive, or more) compared to baseline levels of gelsolin among study participants who develop myocardial infarction or stroke (range: 10 ng/mL to 149 ng/mL, inclusive, or less). For ease of discussion and comparison of results, the gelsolin levels are divided into first, second, third and fourth quartiles based on the following gelsolin levels: (1) 10 ng/mL to 100 ng/mL; (2) 101 ng/mL to 149 ng/mL; (3) 150 ng/mL to 299 ng/mL; and (4) 300 ng/mL to 600 ng/mL.

The relative risks of developing a first myocardial infarction increases significantly with each decreasing quartile of baseline gelsolin such that participants in the lowest quartile are expected to have risks of future myocardial infarction several times greater than those in the highest quartile. Similarly, participants with the lowest baseline gelsolin levels are expected to have a significantly greater risk of developing future ischemic stroke and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease.

To evaluate whether decreased baseline levels of gelsolin are associated with early rather than late myocardial infarction, the analysis of myocardial infarction is stratified by years of follow-up. The relative risk of future myocardial infarction associated with the lowest quartile of gelsolin (as compared to the highest quartile) is determined for events occurring in the first two years of follow-up and compared for events occurring 6 or more years into study follow-up. Similarly, the relative risk of future myocardial infarction associated with a one quartile change in gelsolin also is determined over long time periods. It is anticipated that the relative risks of first myocardial infarction associated with the lowest quartile of baseline gelsolin compared to the highest quartile, according to year of study follow-up indicates a greater risk for the lowest quartile baseline gelsolin, and that this risk increases with time.

It further is anticipated that smokers have significantly lower median levels of gelsolin than non-smokers. However, because of the match by smoking status, the potential for confounding by smoking is minimized. Among non-smokers, it is anticipated that the relative risks of future myocardial infarction increases significantly with each decreasing quartile of gelsolin.

The relationship between gelsolin levels and myocardial infarction, stroke, and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease also are determined and this relationship is adjusted for body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, a family history of premature coronary artery disease, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, lipoprotein(a), tPA antigen, D-dimer, fibrinogen, or homocysteine. It is anticipated that the relative risks of future myocardial infarction, stroke, and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease vary inversely with baseline levels of gelsolin, adjusted for lipid and non-lipid variables (e.g., total and HDL cholesterol, triglyceride level, lipoprotein(a), tPA antigen level, total plasma homocysteine level, D-dimer level, fibrinogen level, and body mass index (kg/m²), diabetes, history of hypertension, and family history of premature CAD.

The beneficial effect of aspirin on myocardial infarction and/or the other disorders disclosed herein, also is determined. The use of gelsolin levels as predictors of risk over and above that associated with lipid and/or inflammatory markers, with or without aspirin treatment, also is confirmed using a series of stratified analyses. It is anticipated that gelsolin is predictive of a risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease among those with low as well as high levels of total cholesterol, and among those with low as well as high total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratios. To investigate whether the effect of gelsolin is addictive to that of cholesterol, further analyses in which study subjects are characterized by tertile (low, middle, or high) of cholesterol as well as gelsolin are performed. Similar analyses also are performed in which study subjects are characterized by tertile of the total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio and/or other inflammatory markers. It is anticipated that the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease associated with gelsolin are additive to that of lipid parameters and/or inflammatory markers alone. Summary

It is anticipated that the baseline gelsolin levels among apparently healthy subjects predicts a risk of first myocardial infarction, stroke (e.g., ischemic stroke), and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease. Further, it is anticipated that the risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, and/or peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease associated with gelsolin also is additive to that associated with either total cholesterol or the total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio as well as to that associated with inflammatory markers. In summary it is believed that assessment of gelsolin is useful for predicting atherosclerotic risk, over and above that defined by levels of inflammatory markers, total cholesterol, and/or total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio.

Equivalents

Those skilled in the art will recognize, or be able to ascertain using no more than routine experimentation, many equivalents to the specific embodiments of the invention described herein. Such equivalents are intended to be encompassed by the following claims.

All references disclosed herein are incorporated by reference in their entirety.

We claim:

Claims

Claims

1. A method for characterizing an individual's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease, comprising obtaining a blood gelsolin level for the individual, 5 comparing the blood gelsolin level to a predetermined value, and characterizing the individual's risk profile of developing said future cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease, based upon the blood gelsolin level in comparison to the predetermined level.

10 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges and said comparing step comprises determining in which of said predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges said individual's blood gelsolin level falls.

15 3. The method of claim 1, wherein the predetermined blood gelsolin level range is from about 150 ng/mL blood to about 300 ng/mL blood.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges, one of said ranges being below about 150

20 ng/mL blood and another of said ranges being above about 300 ng/mL blood, and wherein said comparing step comprises determining in which of said plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges said individual's blood gelsolin level falls.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein said individual is otherwise free of syiSiptoms calling for treatment with an agent for treating a cardiovascular disorder.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein said individual is an apparently healthy, non-smoking individual.

30 7. The method of claim 1, wherein said individual is nonhyperlipidemic.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the cardiovascular disorder is stroke.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the cardiovascular disorder is a myocardial infarction.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the cardiovascular disorder is peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease.

11. A method for characterizing an individual's risk profile of developing a future cardiovascular disorder associated with an atherosclerotic disease, comprising obtaining a blood gelsolin level for the individual, comparing the blood gelsolin level to a first predetermined value to establish a first risk value, obtaining an inflammatory marker level for the individual, comparing the inflammatory marker level to a second predetermined value to establish a second risk value, and characterizing the individual's risk profile of developing the cardiovascular disorder based upon the combination of the first risk value and the second risk value, wherein the combination of the first risk value and second risk value establishes a third risk value different from said first and second risk values.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the third risk value is greater than either of the first and second risk values.

13. The method of claim 11, wherein the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges and said comparing step comprises determining in which of said predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges said individual's blood gelsolin level falls.

14. The method of claim 11, wherein the predetermined blood gelsolin level range is from about 150 ng/mL blood to about 300 ng/mL blood.

15. The method of claim 11, wherein the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges, one of said ranges being below about 150 ng/mL blood and another of said ranges being above about 300 ng/mL blood, and

5 wherein said comparing step comprises determining in which of said plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges said individual's blood gelsolin level falls.

16. The method of claim 11, wherein said individual is otherwise free of symptoms calling for treatment with an agent for treating a cardiovascular disorder.

10

17. The method of claim 11, wherein said individual is an apparently healthy, non-smoking individual.

18. The method of claim 11, wherein said individual is nonhyperlipidemic.

15

19. The method of claim 11, wherein the cardiovascular disorder is stroke.

20. The method of claim 11 , wherein the cardiovascular disorder is a myocardial infarction.

20

21. The method of claim 11, wherein the cardiovascular disorder is peripheral ischemic cardiovascular disease.

22. The method of claim 11, wherein the inflammatory marker is selected 25 from the group consisting of: C-reactive protein (CRP), and a cytokine.

23. A method for evaluating the likelihood that an individual will benefit from treatment with an agent for reducing the risk of a cardiovascular disorder associated with atherosclerotic disease, the agent selected from the group consisting of anti-

30 inflammatory agents, anti-thrombotic agents, anti-platelet agents, fibrinolytic agents, lipid reducing agents, direct thrombin inhibitors, glycoprotein II b/IIIa receptor inhibitors, calcium channel blockers, beta-adrenergic receptor blockers, cyclooxygenase-2- inhibitors, angiotensin system inhibitors, and agents that bind to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibit the ability of white blood cells to attach to such molecules, comprising: obtaining a blood gelsolin level for the individual, and comparing the blood gelsolin level to a predetermined value, wherein the blood gelsolin level in comparison to the predetermined value is indicative of whether the individual will benefit from treatment with said agents, and characterizing whether the individual is likely to benefit from said treatment based upon said comparison.

24. The method of claim 23, wherein the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges and said comparing step comprises determining in which of said predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges said individual's blood gelsolin level falls.

25. The method of claim 23, wherein the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges and said comparing step comprises determining in which of said predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges said individual's blood gelsolin level falls.

26. The method of claim 23, wherein the predetermined blood gelsolin level range is from about 150 ng/mL blood to about 300 ng/mL blood.

27. The method of claim 23, wherein the predetermined value is a plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges, one of said ranges being below about 150 ng/mL blood and another of said ranges being above about 300 ng/mL blood, and wherein said comparing step comprises determining in which of said plurality of predetermined blood gelsolin level ranges said individual's blood gelsolin level falls.

28. The method of claim 23, wherein said individual is otherwise free of symptoms calling for treatment with an agent for treating a cardiovascular disorder.

29. The method of claim 23, wherein said individual is an apparently healthy, 5 non-smoking individual.

30. The method of claim 23, wherein said individual is nonhyperlipidemic.

31. The method of claim 23, wherein the cardiovascular disorder is stroke. 10

32. The method of claim 23, wherein the cardiovascular disorder is a myocardial infarction.

33. The method of claim 23, wherein the cardiovascular disorder is peripheral 15 ischemic cardiovascular disease.

34. The method of claim 23, wherein the inflammatory marker is selected from the group consisting of: C-reactive protein (CRP), and a cytokine.

20 35. A method for treating a subject to reduce the risk of a cardiovascular disorder, comprising: selecting and administering to a subject who is known to have a below-normal blood gelsolin level, an agent for reducing the risk of the cardiovascular disorder in an amount effective to reduce the risk of the subject developing a future cardiovascular

25 disorder, wherein the agent is selected from the group consisting of: an anti-inflammatory agent, an antithrombotic agent, an anti-platelet agent, a fibrinolytic agent, a lipid reducing agent, a direct thrombin inhibitor, a glycoprotein Ilb/IIIa receptor inhibitor, an agent that binds to cellular adhesion molecules and inhibits the ability of white blood

30 cells to attach to such molecules, a calcium channel blocker, a beta-adrenergic receptor blocker, a cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor, and an angiotensin system inhibitor.

36. The method of claim 35, wherein the subject is otherwise free of symptoms calling for treatment with the agent.

37. The method of claim 35, wherein the subject is apparently healthy.

38. The method of claim 35, wherein the subject is nonhyperlipidemic.

39. The method of claim 35, wherein the agent is a non-aspirin, anti- inflammatory agent.

40. The method of claim 35, wherein the agent is an anti-inflammatory agent.

41. The method of claim 40, wherein the agent is selected from the group consisting of Alclofenac; Alclometasone Dipropionate; Algestone Acetonide; Alpha

Amylase; Amcinafal; Amcinafide; Amfenac Sodium; Amiprilose Hydrochloride;

Anakinra; Anirolac; Anitrazafen; Apazone; Balsalazide Disodium; Bendazac;

Benoxaprofen; Benzydamine Hydrochloride; Bromelains; Broperamole; Budesonide;

Carprofen; Cicloprofen; Cintazone; Cliprofen; Clobetasol Propionate; Clobetasone Butyrate; Clopirac; Cloticasone Propionate; Cormethasone Acetate; Cortodoxone;

Deflazacort; Desonide; Desoximetasone; Dexamethasone Dipropionate; Diclofenac

Potassium; Diclofenac Sodium; Diflorasone Diacetate; Diflumidone Sodium; Diflunisal;

Difluprednate; Diftalone; Dimethyl Sulfoxide; Drocinonide; Endrysone; Enlimomab;

Enolicam Sodium; Epirizole; Etodolac; Etofenamate; Felbinac; Fenamole; Fenbufen; Fenclofenac; Fenclorac; Fendosal; Fenpipalone; Fentiazac; Flazalone; Fluazacort;

Flufenamic Acid; Flumizole; Flunisolide Acetate; Flunixin; Flunixin Meglumine;

Fluocortin Butyl; Fluorometholone Acetate; Fluquazone; Flurbiprofen; Fluretofen;

Fluticasone Propionate; Furaprofen; Furobufen; Halcinonide; Halobetasol Propionate;

Halopredone Acetate; Ibufenac; Ibuprofen; Ibuprofen Aluminum; Ibuprofen Piconol; Ilonidap; Indomethacin; Indomethacin Sodium; Indoprofen; Indoxole; Intrazole;

Isoflupredone Acetate; Isoxepac; Isoxicam; Ketoprofen; Lofemizole Hydrochloride; Lornoxicam; Loteprednol Etabonate; Meclofenamate Sodium; Meclofenamic Acid; Meclorisone Dibutyrate; Mefenamic Acid; Mesalamine; Meseclazone; Methylprednisolone Suleptanate; Morniflumate; Nabumetone; Naproxen; Naproxen Sodium; Naproxol; Nimazone; Olsalazine Sodium; Orgotein; Orpanoxin; Oxaprozin; Oxyphenbutazone; Paranyline Hydrochloride; Pentosan Polysulfate Sodium; Phenbutazone Sodium Glycerate; Pirfenidone; Piroxicam; Piroxicam Cinnamate; Piroxicam Olamine; Pirprofen; Prednazate; Prifelone; Prodolic Acid; Proquazone; Proxazole; Proxazole Citrate; Rimexolone; Romazarit; Salcolex; Salnacedin; Salsalate; Sanguinarium Chloride; Seclazone; Sermetacin; Sudoxicam; Sulindac; Suprofen; Talmetacin; Talniflumate; Talosalate; Tebufelone; Tenidap; Tenidap Sodium;

Tenoxicam; Tesicam; Tesimide; Tetrydamine; Tiopinac; Tixocortol Pivalate; Tolmetin; Tolmetin Sodium; Triclonide; Triflumidate; Zidometacin; Glucocorticoids or Zomepirac Sodium.

42. The method of claim 35, wherein the agent is a lipid reducing agent.

43. The method of claim 42, wherein the lipid reducing agent is selected from the group consisting of: gemfibrozil, cholystyramine, colestipol, nicotinic acid, probucol lovastatin, fluvastatin, simvastatin, atorvastatin, pravastatin, and cirivastatin.

44. The method of claim 35, wherein the agent is a calcium channel blocker.

45. The method of claim 35, wherein the agent is a beta-adrenergic receptor blocker.

46. The method of claim 35, wherein the agent is a cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor.

47. The method of claim 35, wherein the agent is an angiotensin system inhibitor.

48. A kit comprising:

(1) a gelsolin standard having a first predetermined value; and

(2) instructions for characterizing an individual's risk profile of developing a cardiovascular disorder based upon a comparison of the individual's gelsolin level to the gelsolin standard, wherein the comparison provides a first risk value for developing a cardiovascular disorder.

49. The kit of claim 48, further including at least one secondary marker standard, wherein the secondary marker standard has a secondary predetermined value of a secondary marker; and wherein the instructions further include instructions for characterizing the individual's risk profile of developing the cardiovascular disorder based upon a comparison of an individual's secondary marker level to the secondary marker standard, wherein the comparison provides a second risk value for developing a cardiovascular disorder and wherein the combination of the first risk value and second risk value establishes a third risk value different from said first and second risk values.

50. The method of claim 49, wherein the secondary marker standard contains a predetermined level of an inflammatory marker.

51. The method of claim 49, wherein the secondary marker standard contains a predetermined level of a cholesterol marker.