WO2001033474A2 - Systeme de guidage automatique permettant la modelisation et la fourniture de conseils professionnels financiers - Google Patents

Systeme de guidage automatique permettant la modelisation et la fourniture de conseils professionnels financiers Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2001033474A2
WO2001033474A2 PCT/US2000/041852 US0041852W WO0133474A2 WO 2001033474 A2 WO2001033474 A2 WO 2001033474A2 US 0041852 W US0041852 W US 0041852W WO 0133474 A2 WO0133474 A2 WO 0133474A2
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WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
user
financial
coaching
investment
portfolio
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PCT/US2000/041852
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English (en)
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WO2001033474A8 (fr
Inventor
Ronald B. Sloan
Stephen B. Slutsky
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Accenture Llp
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Publication date
Application filed by Accenture Llp filed Critical Accenture Llp
Priority to EP00992957A priority Critical patent/EP1228474A2/fr
Priority to CA002388898A priority patent/CA2388898A1/fr
Priority to AU29213/01A priority patent/AU2921301A/en
Publication of WO2001033474A2 publication Critical patent/WO2001033474A2/fr
Publication of WO2001033474A8 publication Critical patent/WO2001033474A8/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/06—Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/04—Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange

Definitions

  • the present invention relates generally to computerized information systems and more particularly to computer implemented financial modeling systems.
  • the availability and access to a human advisor may be less than ideal.
  • a human advisor need sleep, get sick, takes vacations, etc.
  • the present invention provides automated coaching to a user within the framework of a financial counseling and modeling system.
  • the automated coaching alerts and focuses the user attention to the issues to be addressed, and frames decisions to be made.
  • the automated coaching helps focus the user's attention to specific problems and in many cases is able to provide specific solutions to those problems.
  • the automated coach uses natural language coaching strings to dispense its analysis to the user.
  • the present invention relates to a financial management system for providing personalized financial advice to a user.
  • a service level subsystem allows the user to negotiate a service level agreement that defines the user's desired level of support and limits access to user provided information.
  • the modeling subsystem aggregates the user's financial information such as the user revenue and expense expectation over a defined period of time.
  • the advice generating subsystem is coupled to the service level subsystem and includes one or more coaching engines that dynamically analyze the financial needs of the user in accordance with the user's inputted financial and investment profile.
  • the automated coaching engine provides customized financial coaching tailored to the user's life intentions.
  • the financial modeling and counseling system models the user's investment portfolio.
  • the model develops a profile based on the user's personal investment parameters and provides him with automated customized coaching to help the user better conform his investment portfolio to his investment profile.
  • the automated coaching further analyses the user's investment portfolio, and offers customized coaching to improve the user investment portfolio growth while reducing its financial risk.
  • the present invention further benchmarks the user's portfolio against market indices and projects its prospective performance based on the user's profile and his targeted goals.
  • Figure 1 illustrates a representative system architecture in accordance with a preferred embodiment
  • Figure 2 is a block diagram of an automated coach of the present invention
  • FIG. 3 is a block diagram of a representative hardware environment in accordance with a preferred embodiment
  • Figure 4 is a block diagram of a financial management system of the present invention .
  • Figure 5 represents an embodiment of the client side software implementation and the server side software implementation
  • Figure 6 is a block diagram of an exemplary data flow within the financial management system
  • Figure 7 is an illustration of an investment portfolio generator web page interface
  • Figure 8 is a flow diagram of an operation of the Investment Portfolio generator in accordance with a preferred embodiment
  • Figure 9 is a flow diagram of how to set risk tolerance
  • Figure 10 is a flow diagram of an illustration of coaching generated related to the risk tolerance operation
  • Figure 11 is a flow diagram of how to set investment style operation in greater detail
  • Figure 12 is a flow diagram of how to set Bull/Bear attitude
  • Figure 13 is a flow diagram for setting personal financial parameters
  • Figure 14 is a flow diagram for computer generated setting of an asset mix.
  • Figure 15 is a flow diagram for modeling an existing portfolio.
  • Figure 16 is a flow diagram of how to rebalance a portfolio. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS
  • FIG. 1 is an illustration of one embodiment of a financial management information system, in accordance with the present invention, for providing personalized financial advice in a collaborative computing environment.
  • financial management system 100 includes a financial advisor system 102 connected through a wide area network 104 to the live advisor terminal 106 a user terminal 110.
  • the wide area network 104 is a global network such as the Internet.
  • the Internet is based on the TCP/IP communication protocol first developed by the Department Of Defense in the 1960s.
  • the present invention is not limited to the Internet and the TCP/IP protocol.
  • the present invention can be implemented using any other protocols and many other networking system, including wireless networks, the Network File Service (NFS) protocol used by Sun Microsystems or a Novel network based on the UDP/IPX protocol.
  • NFS Network File Service
  • the financial advisor system 102 communicates with the user through any number of devices such as handheld wireless personal organizers, pagers, cellular telephones, land telephones and regular desktop computers. All of the above equipment can act as a user terminal 110.
  • the financial advisor system 102 includes the automated coaching system 114 that dispenses natural language, textual coaching to the user at the user terminal 110
  • the user may access the system using a user terminal 110 (e.g. personal computer).
  • a typical user computer terminal would be described in more detail in figure 3.
  • the user computer is preferably equipped with software to receive live streaming video and/or still pictures over the wide area network 104, from the advisor video camera 108.
  • the user terminal 110 is further equipped with a video camera 109 and software to transmit live streaming video and from the user, across the network 1 4 to the live advisor at the advisor terminal 106.
  • Access to the live financial advisor 106 and all other services provided by the Financial management system is controlled and channeled through the Financial Advisor system 102.
  • the user can access the financial advisor system 102 through the network 104 or by telephone 112.
  • a user telephone call is channeled through a call center discussed further subsequently in Figure 4 to the Financial Advisor System and to the live advisor 106.
  • the live advisor terminal 106 is preferably equipped with the video camera 108 for transmitting live streaming video.
  • the live advisor 106 may further communicate with the user via a telephone 113.
  • Figure 2 is a detailed diagram showing the data and processes relating to the automated coach 114 of the present invention.
  • Advice engine 114 includes an input section 116, a processing section 118 and an output section 120.
  • Input section 116 includes the typical input information to be supplied to automated coach 114.
  • input section 116 includes life path model data 122, user financial information 124, external market data 126, as well as user interaction data 266.
  • Life path model data 122 can be, for example the output data from the LifePath model further described in a related application titled, A Financial Planning and Steping System Projecting User Cash Flow with attorney docket number AND1P758, by the same inventors as the present application, and filed on the same day as the present application and herein incorporated by reference.
  • the LifePath model aggregates the user life intentions into a cash flow model over a desired period of time.
  • the user life intentions include revenue intentions and expense intentions. Once the aggregated model is formed possible period of cash shortage are highlighted and user is focused on possible solutions.
  • the LifePath Model data 116 generated from the user interactions with the LifePath model is used as input to the coaching engine 114.
  • User financial information 124 includes static financial information provided by the user as well as dynamic financial information maintained by third-party financial institutions. This can include such information as the user's various accounts at other financial institutions, as well as inputs from other financial programs such as Quicken® or MS Money®.
  • External market data 126 includes market data relating to the product choices available to the user.
  • the financial institution offering the service may use the automated coaching engine 114 to offer to the user specific financial products pertinent to the user's situation.
  • This information may include other institutions products and the coaching engine 114 may be used to obtain information from those outside sources.
  • User interaction 128 includes information gathered based upon the user's interaction with the system. This may include a user profile used by a web server to customize a web page to the user's needs.
  • Processing section 118 illustrates the typical processing modules required for the coaching engine 114.
  • coaching engine 114 configures and optimizes 130 the features of products available to the user.
  • a bridge loan product suggested to the user as a possible solution to a cash shortage problem may be packaged as fixed rate loan or as a variable interest loan.
  • different Annual Percentage Rates (APR) and different initial costs may be offered as alternatives for each loan product.
  • the automated coaching 114 may be used to configure optimize the features of this product.
  • processing section 132 performs the calculations relating to the potential products available to the user in accordance with the input data summarized in input section 116. In the case of the previous example of the bridge financing, the automated coaching 114 may calculate the user's monthly payments.
  • processing section 118 includes a regulatory requirements module 134 that provides the necessary processing to ensure that the advice generated by the coaching engine 114 complies with applicable government regulations. For example, a consumer loan may have different maximum interest rates in each state. The automated coaching 114 can check for these discrepancies.
  • Output section 120 includes the typical output elements from the advice engine 114.
  • the coaching engine 114 can provide coaching 136 which provides the user with reasoned financial advice and product recommendations.
  • the coaching engine presents its analysis and advice in natural language in simple and easy to understand manner.
  • Product configuration 138 provides the user with a product recommendation in addition to the specific product information tailored to the user's needs.
  • the output section 120 can assess the impact 140 to the user's financial health.
  • Coaching is preferably done in a rules- based "if-then-else" structure which models a distinct domain of financial services. While many modelers produce numerical output, these coaches output syntactically and semantically correct natural language. Of course, other techniques are also suitable, as will be appreciated by those who are skilled in the art.
  • Advice recommends specific buy/sell activities.
  • Coaching alerts the customer to issues which need to be addressed, frames decisions which need to be made, signals customers when certain strategic conditions obtain.
  • there is a gray area between advice and coaching but , in general, advice and coaching are considered to be distinct activities.
  • Figure 3 is a computer system architecture that can be used in implementing the present invention.
  • This computer system architecture may be used to implement a user workstation, or any of the servers called for in figure 4.
  • other computer system architectures are suitable as well.
  • the present invention may be practiced on any of the personal computer platforms available in the market such as an IBMTM compatible personal computer, an Apple MacintoshTM computer or UNIXTM based workstation.
  • the operating system environment necessary to practice the present invention can be based on WindowsTM, NTTM, UNIXTM, Apple Operating SystemTM, SolarisTM or open source operating system software such as LinuxTM and ApacheTM.
  • the computer system can support a number of processes. As appreciated by one skilled in the art, the processes may be written in any of the available programming languages including object oriented programming languages such as Java TM or
  • the computer system architecture 141 of figure 3 includes of a central processing unit 142, such as a microprocessor, a read only memory (ROM) 146, a random access memory (RAM) 148, an input and output adapter 150, a storage device 152, and interface 154 connecting a plurality of input and output device such as a keyboard 156, a mouse 158, a speaker 160, a microphone 162, a video camera 164, a display 168, and a system bus 144 interconnecting all the components together.
  • a central processing unit 142 such as a microprocessor, a read only memory (ROM) 146, a random access memory (RAM) 148, an input and output adapter 150, a storage device 152, and interface 154 connecting a plurality of input and output device such as a keyboard 156, a mouse 158, a speaker 160, a microphone 162, a video camera 164, a display 168, and a system bus 144 interconnecting all the components together.
  • the computer may also include such devices as a touch screen (not shown) connected to the bus 144 and communication adapter 166 such as a dial up modem, a Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) modem or a cable modem, for connecting the workstation to a communication network 104 (e.g., the internet).
  • the storage device 152 can be any number of devices including but not limited to hard disk drive, a floppy drive, CD-Rom, DVD, and a tape device, and removable magnetic storage devices such as a jazzTM drive or ZIPTM drive.
  • Figure 4 is a block diagram of an implementation of the financial advisor system 102.
  • the user may access the system through the wide area network 104 and through a firewall server 170.
  • the wide area network is the Internet, an intranet, etc.
  • a Web server 172 provides the user with a personalized website providing an interactive interface between the user, the financial advisor and financial management system 102.
  • the financial advisor system 102 further includes of a mail server 174, an application server 176, a call center 178 and a data server 180, all connected to the local area network 182.
  • the local area network (LAN) 182 may be any wide area intranet system or a global area network such as the Internet.
  • the firewall server 170 controls the access to the financial advisor system.
  • the purpose of a firewall server is to prevent access to the system by unauthorized users and it would be appreciated by one skilled in the arts.
  • Firewall servers are available through a variety of vendors and have become a standard feature of any secure system used as the primary defense against intruders and hackers.
  • the web server 172 provides a personalized interactive web page environment for the user to operate in once he accesses the system.
  • the web page is acting as the web interface between the financial system Web pages are created using the Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML) and scripting languages such as Java ScriptTM or PearlTM as well as Java TM applets. Creation of customized web page using any of the above programming languages is well within the scope of one skilled in the arts.
  • the personalized web page provides an environment and an interface for the user to interact with the financial advisor system 102. As an example, in one embodiment of the present invention, by selecting an appropriate icon from the interactive personalized website, the user is able to learn, plan, decide, transact and monitor his financial advisor system 102.
  • the mail server 174 handles electronic mail communication between the user and the financial advisor system 102.
  • the Mail server 150 may operate using any standard protocol such as Simple Mail Transfer Protocol (SMTP) and it is implementation is within the scope of the knowledge of one skilled in the art.
  • SMTP Simple Mail Transfer Protocol
  • the various modules of the financial advising system may reside on the application server 176.
  • the modules may include the various coaching engines, the LifePath modeling and the portfolio modeling sub-systems.
  • the applications may be implemented in many programming languages, including the object oriented programming languages such as C++ or JavaTM and be based on any platform such as UNIXTM, Apple OS TM or WindowsTM and NTTM.
  • all or some of the modeling tools as well as all or some of the automated coaching engines reside on the application server 176.
  • the user may also interact with financial advisor system 102 using a telephone 184.
  • the user's call is channeled through the call center system 178.
  • the call center system 178.
  • ACD Automatic Call Distributor
  • JNR Interactive Voice Response Server
  • CTI Computer Telephony Integration
  • RM Relationship Manager
  • the local area network 194 may also be used in interconnecting the various servers of call center.
  • the rVR sever 188 receives the user's telephone call.
  • the IVR system greets callers, prompting them for identification, and providing some information automatically.
  • the Automatic Call Distributor (ACD) server 186 distributes the call using the Internet Protocol (IP) over the network, to the appropriate live coach.
  • IP Internet Protocol
  • the Computer Telephony integration server (CTI) 190 acts as the link between the live advisor's telephone call and the workstation based applications and allows them to automatically work together. As an example, when the IVR server 188 obtains some information about the calling user, this information is delivered to the live advisor's workstation 106, so the advisor does not have to request the same information again.
  • CTI Computer Telephony integration server
  • the user can user other means of communication such as electronic mail or white board TM simultaneously while he is interacting
  • the Data server 180 stores user input data and supplies the application Server 176.
  • the data server 180 may physically reside on many servers and includes outside databases from which the financial advising system 102 can draw information such as actuarial data such as historical price data on securities from sources such as Reuters, user financial information such as banking and portfolio information in other financial institution, and market information such as the days closing numbers for various market indices as well as individual stock securities pricing information.
  • actuarial data such as historical price data on securities from sources such as Reuters
  • user financial information such as banking and portfolio information in other financial institution
  • market information such as the days closing numbers for various market indices as well as individual stock securities pricing information.
  • Formatted in the Open File Exchange (OFX) format now the accepted internet standard used by programs such as QuickenTM and MS Money TM the data server through the firewall can easily exchange information with the outside world and specifically the user.
  • OFX Open File Exchange
  • the coaching engine rules for various coaching engines 114 can reside data server 180.
  • a networked personal computer environment a client-server system, a mainframe terminal environment, WEB TV terminal environment, dumb terminal environments can be used to access the financial management system of present invention.
  • a client-server system may be the most preferable computing system for implementing the financial system of the present invention.
  • each server such as an application server or a data server is a logical representation.
  • the actual physical systems may be distributed over many servers, or be included on a single machine.
  • Figure 5 illustrates embodiments of the client side software implementation and the server side software implementation.
  • the client browser 196 is running on the user terminal 110
  • the server operating system software 198 may be running on any of the servers depicted in Figure 4 such as the web server 172 or the application server 176.
  • both the web server and the application server may be residing on the same physical computer.
  • the two servers may be located on separate machines.
  • the client browser 198 opens and interprets a web page 200 written in for example, Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML).
  • HTML Hyper Text Markup Language
  • various selections would allow the user to communicate with the web sever 172 and the application server 176 and allows the user to request information, or run applications.
  • the user's request is received through Active Server Pages (ASP) 202,204, 206.
  • ASP Active Server Pages
  • Each user request may triggers a server-side script that would launch an application.
  • a request is sent through the Internet using HTTP protocol 210 and launches the script for the ASP 202 tied to an Application Programmer's Interface 212.
  • the Application Program Interface (API) 212 processes the script and launches a Configurator 214.
  • the coaching engine rules database 216 provides the coaching engine rules to a Configurator 214.
  • the Configurator 214 is a scalable configuration and recommendation system made by Calico Commerce Inc. of San Jose, California.
  • the coaching engine dispenses context sensitive coaching to the user regarding his financial situation.
  • the Calico Configurator 214 is a generic engine capable of being configured and customized to suit specific uses.
  • the coaching engine rules 216 allow customization to implement aspects of the present invention.
  • the user may elect to complement the automated coaching with advice from a human advisor.
  • the availability of such services may be based on user negotiated service level agreement.
  • the user contacts a live advisor by selecting from one of the many communication options available to him such as live voice 220, live video
  • the communication is preferably established through the ASP 204 linked to the ACD server 186 and which in turn launches the ASP 206 linked to a live advisor terminal 106.
  • the communication session may be managed by MS NetMeetingTM 228, a software available from Microsoft®
  • AND1P755 Communication Interface For A Financial Modeling and Counseling System, attorney docket number AND1P757, and A User Interface For A Financial Modeling System, attorney docket number AND1P759, and Financial Portfolio Risk Management, attorney docket number AND1P756, all by the same inventors as the present application, and all filed on the same day as the present application and all herein incorporated by reference.
  • the user may select a function icon such as an interactive control of a model such as the LifePath model.
  • the user's request is coded in a
  • Java applet 230 which runs on a Java Virtual Machine 232. The selection launches a connection through the network to the database 124 holding user financial information and profile. The user can then manipulate this information while connected to the database 124.
  • the user can receiving live streaming audio or live streaming video 242 through the network residing on the IIS server's 238.
  • an application such as MS Windows TM Media PlayerTM 240 would interprets and allows the user to see or hear the data.
  • Figure 6 is an illustration of the data flow within the financial management system 102.
  • a user using financial computer 110 preferably connects to the Financial Advisor system 102 using the wide area network 104.
  • the user at a user terminal 110 enters the Financial Advisor system 102 at the service level subsystem 250.
  • the service level agreement provides the level of services to which the user is entitled. Once the user has negotiated a service level agreement 252, he is prompted to select the model to be used in operation 254.
  • the level of service and support selected in the service level agreement 250 controls the user's access to different modeling tools.
  • the Lifepath model 256 may be the hub of the financial institution's relationship.
  • the LifePath model 256 provides data to all coaching engine 114 allowing customized coaching output to be dispensed to the user based on his unique financial situation.
  • the Lifepath model 256 combines all the pertinent financial information about a user in one coherent and comprehensive picture and models the user's life intentions into an aggregated cash flow system over a user selected period of time. Using the terminal 110 the user inputs his life intentions in terms of projected income and expenses.
  • the Lifepath model 256 maintains an interactive dialog between the user and financial management system 100.
  • the Lifepath model 256 integrates the financial information available about the user in accordance with the user's service level agreement 252 to create an aggregate forecast of cash flow over the user's lifetime.
  • the financial information available about the user includes the user's life intentions data 258 and the user's external financial data 260.
  • the user's external financial data can include current checking account information from the user's bank or data related the user's 401K plan.
  • the system is capable of dynamically analyzing the financial needs of the user and providing the user with an understanding of their financial health at any point with minimal input form the user.
  • personalized service level agreement 250 can optionally allow the user to limit the system's and/or advisor's access to the user's external financial data 260.
  • the external data 260 and the user's life intentions data combine to form the user information 124 used by the
  • life path model 256 also integrates external market data 126 into the aggregated forecast of the user's cash flow.
  • external market data 126 includes information such as current mortgage interest rates or market inflation rates. Access to both internal and external databases is controlled by the user's service level agreement.
  • the user may by pass the LifePath model 256 and start with the portfolio modeling tool 262.
  • the service level agreement determines the level of service to which a user has agreed.
  • the user would supply his financial portfolio information to the financial advising system 102, either directly using the user terminal 110 or indirectly through the wide area network 104, by accessing a multiplicity of databases 258, 260 and 126 and accessing information such as his securities portfolio at a particular brokerage firm.
  • the financial portfolio modeling tool 262 is an interactive tool that has access to the all the information available to the Lifepath model 256, such as the user's life intentions data 258, the user's external financial data 260, as well as external market data 126.
  • User insight data 264 and aggregated data from the Lifepath model 122 is also available to the portfolio modeling tool.
  • the financial portfolio modeling also allows the user to access a computer coach and/or a live advisor based in part on the service level agreement.
  • An alternative embodiment allows the user to use the LifePath model 256 and set his long term financial goals and then use the portfolio modeling tool 262 to adjust his investment portfolio to better achieve his long term financial goals.
  • Coaching generating subsystem 266 includes one or more coaching engines 268.
  • Coaching engines 268 dynamically analyze the financial needs of the user in accordance with the user's service level agreement. Furthermore, the coaching engines 268 are configured to operate with coaching engine rules repository 216.
  • Coaching engine rules repository 216 is a collection of rules-based business logic that produces clear automated advice.
  • a compound growth factor is calculated for the user's portfolio, by logarithmically averaging the portfolio's growth over the selected period of time as shown by the risk/reward map. The user is given an estimate as to the chances of achieving a user inputted target value and natural language coaching analysis compares the user's portfolio to the various market benchmarks, by comparing the and suggest possible ways of reducing risk and increasing return on the investment.
  • the market comparison is done by calculating a Value At Risk (VAR) and a Beta AND1P760.P value for the portfolio and compare these figures to that of the market.
  • VAR Value At Risk
  • Beta AND1P760.P value for the portfolio and compare these figures to that of the market.
  • the analysis is based on business logic rules and industry accepted statistical and numerical analysis. However, calculated statistical parameters presented numerically without context will be meaningless to the average investor. So statistics will be inte ⁇ reted by rule based coaching algorithms, which states the results in non-technical natural language. Table 1 shows a sample of some inte ⁇ retive coaching in response to user questions.
  • Coaching engine rules repository 216 generates its advice using LifePath data 122 and user insight data 264.
  • the investment portfolio data from the portfolio modeling tool 262 triggers the coaching engines advise.
  • user insight data 264 includes transaction history, product or purchase history, as well as demographic information about the user.
  • coaching generating subsystem 266 also recommends product solutions to the user.
  • the advice engines 268 can recommend that the user include deposit products and loan products in their financial plan.
  • the coaching engine 268 can recommend that the user acquire a certain mortgage or bridge financing.
  • the coaching engine 268 can also direct the user to the need for financial products such as, home improvement, line of credit, or credit card products.
  • Coaching engine 268 can also have access to product information from various financial institutions (not shown). Accordingly, the user can request additional information about the various products recommended by the system.
  • the user can access their financial plan or life path model using user terminal 110.
  • User terminal 110 is part of collaborative computing environment 272 and is in data communication with virtual coach 274 and the advisor terminal 106 through communications network 104.
  • communication network 104 is the Internet.
  • the advice and product solutions generated by the advice generating subsystem 266 arc presented to the user through virtual coach 274.
  • Virtual coach 274 presents the product recommendation with accompanying rationale.
  • the user can test different scenarios by altering the data captured by life path model 256. Each scenario can then be analyzed by coaching engine 268.
  • the automated coaching system 114 may include all or some the advice engines
  • the automated coaching system 114 has already framed the problem for the user and the live advisor. Thus, both can immediately focus on the alternative solutions to the user's issues in a more cost efficient fashion.
  • modeling tools for analyzing various financial instruments such as bonds, reverse mortgages, option contracts and a like may be available to the user.
  • the user's investment portfolio is modeled by the modeling tool.
  • Figure 7 is an exemplary graphical user interface 276 that embodies the various concepts and methods set forth for financial portfolio modeling.
  • the graphical user interface 276 includes a plurality of selection icons 278 including a my page icon 280 for displaying a graphical user interface specifically tailored for a particular user, a save icon 282 for saving any changes made to the graphical user interface 276, an export icon 284 for exporting data displayed by the graphical user interface 276, a print icon 286 for printing various fields of the graphical user interface 276, a help icon 288 for obtaining help information, and an exit icon 290 for exiting the graphical user interface 276.
  • selection icons 278 including a my page icon 280 for displaying a graphical user interface specifically tailored for a particular user, a save icon 282 for saving any changes made to the graphical user interface 276, an export icon 284 for exporting data displayed by the graphical user interface 276, a print icon 286 for printing various fields of the graphical user interface 276, a help icon 288 for obtaining help information,
  • My page icon 280 displays a web page that can be customized to each user's need, simplifying the use of the portfolio model 262.
  • the portfolio modeling system uses the Open File Exchange (OFX) protocol which has become the standard protocol for the exchange of financial information over a wide area network, and particularly the Internet.
  • OFX Open File Exchange
  • the mode icons 292 include a transact icon 294 for initiating transactions involving the purchasing and selling of investments utilizing a network, a monitor icon 296 for monitoring the performance of the investments, a model icon 298 for generating an investment model based on criteria entered by the user, an explore icon 300 for retrieving information on the investments, and a track icon 302 for tracking the investments utilizing the network.
  • the Wide Area Network 104 is the Internet and the portfolio modeling system has access to outside databases such as Reuters and Bloomberg for historical and current securities pricing or market indexes.
  • a communication medium 304 may be employed to converse with other users, namely financial advisers, etc.
  • Such communication medium 304 includes a window 306, and a plurality of communications icons 308 that enable various types of communication between the user and the live coach or advisor.
  • Access to a live advisor is an optional feature the user negotiates in his service level agreement.
  • automated coaching allows guides the user in most of his decision making and helps him be independent of the need to use a live advisor.
  • a user profile may be viewed and adjusted using a plurality of profile icons 310.
  • a filtering field 312 is also shown in Figure 7. Such filtering field
  • a risk/reward map 314 is also shown displaying the probability of the user reaching its financial goals. Also shown is a coaching window 316 for displaying coaching strings 318 based on a rule-based automated coaching engine. Such window 316 may include a field adjustment bar
  • the coaching appearing in the coaching window 316 is dynamically related and customized to the user's portfolio characteristics.
  • a compound growth factor is calculated for the user's portfolio, by logarithmically averaging the portfolio's growth over the selected period of time as shown by the risk/reward map in the window 314.
  • the risk/reward map 314 is inte ⁇ reted by the coaching engine and displayed in natural language coaching strings in the coaching window 316 and suggest possible ways of reducing risk and increasing return on the investment.
  • FIG. 322 illustrates various charts pertaining to sector diversification and other investment parameters.
  • the sector diversification information is explained using the automated coaching 114.
  • a portfolio model window 324 may also be displayed for portfolio modeling pmposes. For example, interest sensitive stocks conforming to the user's investment parameters are suggested by the automated coaching 114 to counter-balance stocks with the opposite Beta value or less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.
  • the service icons 326 are selected by the user when he needs various operations to be performed on his portfolio.
  • the optimize icon 328 optimizes a securities list based on the newly specified criteria.
  • the criteria icon 330 enables the user to introduce additional criteria for selecting a particular security.
  • the trade list 332 displays the system recommended securities that should be sold based on the user criteria and his personal financial parameters.
  • the filter icon 334 generates a filtered list of securities displayed in the filtered list window 312. Sort icon 336 sorts the list of securities based on a user selected criteria such as alphabetical order.
  • the coaching icon 338 generates context sensitive automated coaching 114 related to the user's financial portfolio.
  • the undo icon 340 undoes a specific swap of securities.
  • the submit icon 342 submits and the user changes to his portfolio during the current session.
  • the user can set a target goal for his investment portfolio as well as his preferences by selecting the target and preference icon 344. He may do an analysis on his past or present portfolio by selecting the portfolio analysis icon 346. He may trigger specific coaching on specific a security or group of securities or even on whole industry sectors, as well as request more detail information by selecting the stock analyst icon 348. He may further model and analyze the effect of inclusion or exclusion of particular securities on his portfolio by swapping stocks in and out of the portfolio 350. When selecting a particular icon corresponding to the various tools, a corresponding help text string appears in the help screen 376, directing the user on how to use the particular tool.
  • Figure 8 illustrates an investment portfolio management method utilizing an automated coach in a network based financial framework.
  • a plurality of parameters is set for a subject utilizing a network.
  • the parameters include personal investment parameters
  • parameters 356, personal financial parameters 358, and/or asset mix parameters 360 may include a minimum retirement, target floor, investment rate, tax implications, etc.
  • the parameters may be selected manually by the subject using a desired graphic user interface, or by a third party.
  • the network is utilized to provide the subject coaching from an investment coaching engine in operations 362, where such coaching relates to the setting of the parameters.
  • the coaching may be provided by utilizing a look-up table which is capable of generating various combinations of advice based on the settings.
  • the advice may be generated using any other type of artificial intelligence system.
  • At least one financial model for a portfolio of the subject is subsequently generated in operation 364 based on the setting of the parameters. This may be generated using a system similar to that which generates the coaching, or any other desired means.
  • the network is again used to provide coaching from the investment coach engine to the subject with the coaching relating to the generated financial model.
  • the personal investment parameters include a risk tolerance parameter 366.
  • the coaching by the coaching engine 368 may provide a textual risk tolerance profile for the subject based upon an inte ⁇ retation of current risk tolerance parameters of the subject as textual analysis.
  • the personal investment parameters may include an investment style parameter 370.
  • the coaching by the coaching engine 372 provides a textual investment style profile for the subject based upon an intc ⁇ retation of current investing style parameters of the subject as textual analysis.
  • the personal investment parameters include a bull/bear attitude parameter 374.
  • a bull attitude is one of optimism that the stock market will go up, while a bear attitude is where the user believes the stock market would go down.
  • coaching by the related coaching engine 376 provides a textual description of an implied future of financial markets and graphs showing forecast curves of financial markets based upon the building of financial market forecasts which are, in turn, based upon evaluations from financial experts.
  • the coaching by the coaching engine 378 relating to the setting of the personal financial parameters in operation 380 provides an alert if the investment parameters of the subject conflict with Lifepath cash flows or personal parameters based on a consistency check of the investment parameters with data obtained from a Lifepath model 256 and personal investment parameters.
  • the coaching by the coaching engine 382 relating to the setting of the asset mix parameters in operation 384 provides a rationalization of the asset mix based on personal and financial parameters of the subject and at least one computer generated asset mix. No penny stocks would be included if the subject is conservative, only treasury bills.
  • a pie chart may also be included that represents a portfolio showing the subject's
  • the financial model comprises a model of an existing investment portfolio of the subject.
  • the coaching by the coaching engine 388 provides an analysis of market-related growth by security and sector, trend analysis, fee and service analysis, and/or dividend and interest impact based upon transaction history and current market values of the existing investment portfolio.
  • the coaching by the coaching engine 388 may also provide an analysis of growth, risk and value of the existing investment portfolio based on market data and expert analyst opinion.
  • the coaching by the coaching engine 388 may provide an evaluation of the existing investment portfolio relative to the personal and financial parameters of the subject based on a comparison of growth and volatility projected forecasts to the personal and financial parameters of the subject. It should be noted that similar capabilities may be provided using a model based on a computer generated portfolio in operation 390.
  • the financial model may include a model of an investment portfolio of the subject generated by the subject with the input of a private banker.
  • Coaching by the coaching engine 394 provides an analysis of growth, risk and value of each security in the investment portfolio based on a concatenated, user- friendly English format of market data and expert analyst opinion obtained utilizing the network 104.
  • the coaching by the coaching engine 394 may provide an evaluation of the contributions of securities in the investment portfolio relative to the personal and financial parameters of the subject based on a comparison of the personal and financial parameters of the subject to an analysis of risk compliance, growth, and volatility.
  • risk management is a vague area which advisors and clients typically address using judgment and intuition. Advisors and brokerage firms need to quantify risk to mitigate legal liability. In addition, investors want to quantify the impact of individual picks on their portfolio risk/reward. Further, regulators will be supportive of processes that help investors to become more knowledgeable about risk and avoid unaffordable losses. Finally, the brokerage industry needs to outsource risk management services to avoid any additional technology problems and to ensure third party objectivity. Many investors build their own spreadsheets to understand their portfolio performance.
  • the present invention provides automated coaching and new tools to benchmark portfolio performance, and by providing analysis the user is helped in improving his portfolio performance and reduce his risk exposure. The present invention accomplishes this by coaching the user in setting up a user profile based on the user's personal investment
  • Figure 9 is a flow diagram illustrating the set risk tolerance operation 366 in greater
  • the representations may include both textual and graphical representation, and may further include headline news indirectly related to the particular company.
  • the scenario generated may encompass as whole sector or industry such as the interest sensitive construction industry. Both indirect economic news such as a forecast of future interest rate and direct economic news such as declining housing starts or sales of new homes are presented to the user and his reaction to the negative news is indicative of his personal risk tolerance. If the user selects to bail out 402 based on the negative financial scenario, his risk tolerance profile is adjusted accordingly 404.
  • the system adjusts the user risk profile for that security type 404.
  • the process is repeated for other types of investment such as Retirement, Tax deferred environment.
  • the automated coaching generates coaching to describe the user's risk tolerance profile at 406 and the process is completed at 407.
  • Figure 10 is block diagram of the "generate coaching to describe risk profile" operation 406 of figure 9.
  • the risk tolerance parameters are fed to the coaching engine an operation 408.
  • the coaching engine algorithm inte ⁇ rets the risk tolerance parameters and forms a textual analysis 410.
  • the coaching engine presents to the user the resulting inte ⁇ retation of the risk tolerance profile in a textual format 412 and the process is
  • the coaching engine can explain in textual language, to the user the significance of the risk tolerance parameter and how the coaching engine would use this parameter to analyze the user's portfolio, and assess whether the existing portfolio conforms to the user's risk tolerance parameter. Furthermore, the coaching engine uses the risk tolerance parameter to suggest securities to be added to the user's portfolio to reduce its risk vulnerability.
  • the present invention preferably provides risk management and reporting capabilities for personal investment portfolios, e.g. stocks and bonds.
  • the present invention allows customers to be able to quantify the risk associated with their equity holdings for the first time.
  • risk management for personal portfolios is based on judgment and intuition.
  • the brokerage industry is currently facing a number of challenges and opportunities related to this. Too many optimistic self-directed investors are assuming levels of risk they are not aware of and cannot afford. As well, regulators are concerned about the lack of controls in the trading environment potentially resulting in widespread losses and liability litigation.
  • Figure 11 illustrates a flow diagram for determining an investment style 370 in a network-based financial framework.
  • the present technique is intended to not just ask questions, but provide scenarios. It sets up a portfolio of stocks that an investor can trade or not trade on these fictitious stocks, and provides examples of how the stock market can move.
  • the present method develops a profile and helps target information effectively for the particular person. Coaching is strategically designed to keep the risk minimal by avoiding telling what someone should do. Scenarios will also identify areas of weakness in one's knowledge.
  • the interactive input exercise may include top down or bottom up test scenarios 416, trading frequency test scenarios 418, needs for info ⁇ nation and research test scenarios 420, level of expertise test scenarios 422, and/or strategic or pragmatic test scenarios
  • a bottom up investor would start with a vision of the economy and decide what to invest in, and then they would look at one stock at a time and make a decision.
  • Trading frequency is used by the system to project the user's portfolio performance in the future by taking into account trading cost.
  • Level of expertise scenarios may be used to customize coaching strings and the level of explanation put forth by the automated coaching.
  • an investment profile of the subject is generated based on the at least one interactive input exercise in operation 426.
  • Coaching is also provided for the subject based on the generated investment profile.
  • a display may be generated for the subject based on the generated investment profile. Note operation 428.
  • the user may reject his investment style parameter as presented to him by the automated coaching and go through the process 370 to reset his investment style parameter.
  • Figure 12 illustrates a flow diagram for the "set Bull/Bear attitude" in operation 374.
  • the instant aspect of the present invention is able to come to a conclusion about a person. For example, it may determine how confident a person is about the future.
  • Online polling is one technique that allows the present invention to become the basis of a customer's long-term parameters. It achieves a systematic attempt to capture one's perspective on the economy as a whole.
  • an expert is selected utilizing a network in operation 430.
  • an opinion from the expert is rendered utilizing the network and witnessed in operation 432.
  • At least one evaluation of the expert's opinion is then received from a subject utilizing the network.
  • the step of obtaining the evaluation may be accomplished by displaying to the subject a plurality of choices for expressing the subject's agreement with the opinion of the expert, receiving a selection of one of the choices from the subject utilizing the network, and storing the selection.
  • the plurality of choices displayed to the user may include the following: strongly agree with the opinion, agree with the opinion, neutral to the opinion, disagree with the opinion, and/or strongly disagree with the opinion.
  • the subject may be permitted to select at least one other expert utilizing the network after which operations 430-436 of the present invention may be repeated.
  • the evaluation(s) may then be aggregated from one or more subjects, as indicated in operation 438.
  • At least one financial model may be built based on the aggregated evaluation from the subject.
  • the financial model may be selected from a model based on the future of a financial index, a model based on an interest rate curve, and a model based on a gross domestic product (GDP).
  • GDP gross domestic product
  • the financial model is displayed in operation 442 utilizing the network.
  • the subject may be coached utilizing the network. See operation 444.
  • Such coaching may be based on the financial model.
  • the coaching would analyses the user's market attitude (bull/bear attitude) and explain the resulting market model in natural language.
  • the resulting market attitude would be used by the modeling and coaching engines to project the user portfolio's growth over a period of time.
  • Figure 13 represents the flow chart for setting the personal financial parameters 358. Once personal investment parameters have been identified, the user is prompted to input some basic personal financial parameters. Unlike the Personal Investment Parameters, which are largely qualitative, the Personal Financial Parameters 358 are quantitative.
  • the user is prompted at 446 to input some basic financial data such as his time frame or his investment horizon, his target and cu ⁇ ent portfolio value and his planned rate of contribution to his investment portfolio.
  • the user also preferably inputs such other personal parameters such as whether the portfolio is a tax exempt IRA, 401 K or Canadian RRSP.
  • Note operation 446 One important datum is the "floor.” In a retirement portfolio this would be the bare minimum acceptable lifestyle the customer would be prepared to accept.
  • Some of the data may be imported from other models such as the LifePath model 262.
  • Note operation 448 The automated coaching engine checks for consistency of the personal financial parameters 358 with the LifePath model 262, and personal investment parameters 356. Note operation 450. If the consistency check yields a conflict 452, the user is alerted 454. If no conflict is detected then the coaching engine confirms the personal financial parameters 456.
  • a risk modeling algorithm is used for analysis and projects the portfolio value forward compounded at its current rate of growth.
  • the bands are preferably defined for example, by Bell curve theory and represent a sigma value related to the confidence level the customer requires in the forecast. The greater the confidence required, the wider the bands. If the "floor' value ends up within the bands, the customer is at risk of an unacceptable retirement. The customer can settle for less confidence in the portfolio projection. He may also optimize a portfolio that hits the target with lower risk using the automated coaching to guide him. He may further accept a lower target at lower risk and rebalance his portfolio. He may simply lower his "floor” or decide to increase his contribution.
  • FIG 14 is a flow diagram for process of setting the asset mix coaching operation 382 of figure 8.
  • the automated coaching imports the user's personal investment parameters 356 and the user's personal financial parameters 358. Note operation 458.
  • the automated coaching creates a computer-generated asset mix based on the user's parameters and the user's parameters 460.
  • the automated coaching taking into consideration the user's risk tolerance and investment style parameters, suggest a possible asset mix between stocks and bonds to achieve the user defined target portfolio.
  • the automated coaching evaluates various parameters such as Value At Risk (VAR) and Beta value for the computer generated asset mix and evaluates these variables against the user's personal investment parameters 356 and the user's personal financial parameters 358. Note operation 462.
  • the automated coaching outputs to the user the rationalization of the computer generated asset mix in textual natural language coaching strings 464.
  • the automated coaching helps the user achieve his financial goals by directing him to modify his portfolio to increase his return on investment and reduce his risk.
  • Three portfolio tools use the personal and financial profile parameters as inputs.
  • a tool is used to create a customized portfolio automatically. It creates an ideal proportional breakdown of security types based on the customer's personal and financial investment parameters. Creating a set of filters, it then selects appropriate securities of each type at the right level of risk and volatility, validates the aggregated growth and volatility, and iterates if necessary.
  • the tool could be used by the customer or the modeling system on the customer's behalf by automatically analyzing the user's existing portfolio. Alternatively, a tool may be used to allow the customer to exchange securities in and out of his portfolio with guidance from the automated coaching system.
  • Figure 15 illustrates a flow diagram for modeling an existing financial portfolio 386 figure 8.
  • the performance of at least one investment of a subject is determined utilizing a network.
  • the performance of the investment includes obtaining a transaction history of the investment in operation 466, obtaining a current market value for the investment in operation 468, and analyzing the performance of the investment based on the transaction history and the current market value of the investment.
  • Note operation 470 financial information is obtained relating to the investment of the subject.
  • the step of obtaining the financial information relating to the investment may include obtaining historical data on the investment in operation 472, and obtaining research relating to the historical data of the investment in
  • the aggregated growth and volatility of the investment is calculated in operation 476. Such calculation may be performed based on bell curves, and other statistical techniques. Best case and worst case scenarios may also be
  • a projection to a target date is subsequently built for the investment. Note operation 478. This is done based on the determined performance of the investment, the financial information relating to the investment, and/or the calculated aggregated grown and volatility of the investment. Finally, displays are generated based on the built projection. Note operation 480.
  • coaching and a report 482 may be provided to the subject utilizing the network based on the determined performance of the investment. This may include comparing the user's portfolio to market benchmarks and pinpointing the source of the portfolio's volatility or unde ⁇ erformance, by sector or even by specific security. Further, coaching may be provided to the subject utilizing the network based on the obtained financial information relating to the investment. Note operation 484. Such network may also be used to provide coaching in operation 486 with the generated displays relative to personal and financial
  • Table 2 details the performance of the coaching engines in analyzing an existing portfolio.
  • Figure 16 illustrates a flow diagram of a process 392 of figure 8 to rebalance a portfolio with the aid of the automated coaching.
  • the modeling system creates a portfolio 0 model using either an existing portfolio or starts with a computer generated portfolio 448.
  • the user selects security from the list of filtered securities for possible "swap" or exchange with securities already in the portfolio 490.
  • the securities are filtered based on the user's personal investment parameters 356 and the user personal financial parameters 358. For example, securities with higher Value At Risk coefficient than the permissible user risk tolerance are 5 rejected.
  • Securities are selected from user preferred industry sectors such as electronics or transportation.
  • the system obtains historical data, technical and fundamental data, and research and breaking news or expert opinion, all pertaining to the particular security 492.
  • the coaching engine converts the data into natural language, non technical coaching strings 496.
  • Automated coaching provides analyses of the technical and fundamental data and provides growth, risk and value analysis for each security selected 494.
  • the user may elect to do a "trial swap" of the security and observe the impact of the swap 498.
  • the modeling system recalculates the portfolio model including the added securities and the subtracted securities.
  • the system further does a risk compliance to meet the with the user's personal investment profile 500.
  • the new portfolio's growth and volatility are analyzed by the system and the automated coaching engine translates the effect of the swap on the portfolio performance in non technical natural language 502. If the user is satisfied with the resulting swap he may accept it 504. If he is unsatisfied with the security swap, he may reject it 506.
  • the user may place an order to purchase the particular security through the financial modeling system, using the network.

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Abstract

L'invention concerne un système de guidage automatique destiné à un système de modélisation et de fourniture de conseils professionnels financiers. Le système de guidage automatique permet à un utilisateur d'analyser son portefeuille d'investissement, et de fournir à cet utilisateur un conseil automatique sensible au contexte, en fonction des données financières introduites par ledit utilisateur, de ses préférences, et de ses objectifs financiers. Le système de guidage automatique fournit également des conseils à l'utilisateur sous forme de chaînes de guidage en langage naturel syntaxiquement correct, et peut configurer et recommander des solutions et des produits financiers, propres à la situation de cet utilisateur. Le système de guidage automatique peut enfin analyser l'impact du produit recommandé sur le modèle financier de l'utilisateur.
PCT/US2000/041852 1999-11-01 2000-11-01 Systeme de guidage automatique permettant la modelisation et la fourniture de conseils professionnels financiers WO2001033474A2 (fr)

Priority Applications (3)

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EP00992957A EP1228474A2 (fr) 1999-11-01 2000-11-01 Systeme de guidage automatique permettant la modelisation et la fourniture de conseils professionnels financiers
CA002388898A CA2388898A1 (fr) 1999-11-01 2000-11-01 Systeme de guidage automatique permettant la modelisation et la fourniture de conseils professionnels financiers
AU29213/01A AU2921301A (en) 1999-11-01 2000-11-01 Automated coaching for a financial modeling and counseling system

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