WO2001002985A2 - Procede et appareil permettant d'evaluer des fournisseurs d'informations financieres - Google Patents

Procede et appareil permettant d'evaluer des fournisseurs d'informations financieres Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2001002985A2
WO2001002985A2 PCT/US2000/018244 US0018244W WO0102985A2 WO 2001002985 A2 WO2001002985 A2 WO 2001002985A2 US 0018244 W US0018244 W US 0018244W WO 0102985 A2 WO0102985 A2 WO 0102985A2
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WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
prediction
creator
seller
user
buyer
Prior art date
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PCT/US2000/018244
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English (en)
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WO2001002985A8 (fr
Inventor
David F. Eisner
Karim Elaagouby
Bill Gross
Original Assignee
Iexchange.Com, Inc.
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Iexchange.Com, Inc. filed Critical Iexchange.Com, Inc.
Priority to AU59090/00A priority Critical patent/AU5909000A/en
Publication of WO2001002985A2 publication Critical patent/WO2001002985A2/fr
Publication of WO2001002985A8 publication Critical patent/WO2001002985A8/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/06—Buying, selling or leasing transactions

Definitions

  • This invention relates to the field of finance and investment. More particularly, the invention relates to the creation, presentation, evaluation, and retrieval of financial and investment information and information regarding financial analysts, investment advisors, and creators and providers of financial and investment information.
  • users also referred to as traders or investors, buy and sell stocks, bonds, commodities, mutual funds, and other securities.
  • Other investors research the potential purchase by examining earnings reports from the company issuing the security or evaluating the past history of the security and the company.
  • Other -.nvestors prefer not to make their own choices, but to rely on the advice or recc trtmendations of professionals such as a stock broker, analyst, or investment advisor,or on the advice of nonprofessionals or friends.
  • analysts any creator and/or provider of financial, investment and /or other information is referred to herein as an “analyst", regardless of whether or not the analyst generates information by performing any form of analysis.
  • An analyst or advisor A problem with selecting and using an analyst or advisor is that there is no easy, quick, and inexpensive way to compare one analyst to another analyst, review an analyst's past conduct (e.g., past recommendations of an advisor), or review an analyst's past performance (e.g., the accuracy of an analyst's past predictions) or see multiple analyst's recommendations on the same subject. Additionally, many potential analysts (e.g., everyday users that have the ability to predict securities successfully) currently have no mechanism to present their recommendations to other investors that may be interested in their predictions. These problems may be better understood by describing the securities market, analysts, securities research, and the internet.
  • the term “securities” includes stocks, bonds, commodities, mutual funds, and other financial investment vehicles.
  • the term “stock” refers to the ownership of a company. Stock is issued by a company and represents a part of the company. Persons or firms can own portions or units of stock referred to as shares. Many securities, including stock are traded on public exchanges (e.g., the NYSE, AMSE, NASDAQ, etc.).
  • an investor For example, an individual investor or portfolio manager contacts an account executive, also known as a stockbroker (the portfolio manager may also be an account executive) at a broker-dealer (also known as a brokerage house), and instructs the account executive to purchase or sell the desired securities.
  • an account executive also known as a stockbroker (the portfolio manager may also be an account executive) at a broker-dealer (also known as a brokerage house)
  • a broker-dealer also known as a brokerage house
  • the investment advisor or stockbroker instructs the account executive or executes the trade on behalf of the investor, for example.
  • on-line brokerage accounts may provide the investor with research capabilities such as links to articles, real time stock quotes, and the ability to track and chart one or more stocks as part of a investor-defined portfolio.
  • on-line brokerage accounts merely provide an investor with the capability to conduct research and place securities orders on-line instead of using the traditional approach (e.g., using a stock broker and placing orders on the phone or in writing).
  • the recommendations may be in the form of ratings, gradings, or other means of scoring or ranking securities (the terms “rating,” “ranking,” “scoring” and “grading” are used interchangeably herein to refer to any method for placing some form of absolute or relative value on whatever is being rated, ranked, scored or graded) or in the form of changes to the ranking of securities. For example, an analyst may indicate that a security is being "upgraded” or “downgraded.” Published recommendations often rank securities using abstract or relative terms.
  • the rankings may include terms such as strong buy, aggressive buy, buy, outperform, accumulate, attractive, market perform, hold, underweight, maintain position, reduce, neutral, unattractive, underperform, avoid, source of funds, and sell.
  • the relative order of the ranking terms may vary from one advisor to another.
  • one analyst's ratings in descending order from positive to negative may be: Buy, Outperform, Neutral, Underperform, and Sell, while another analyst may use different terms and/or a different ordering.
  • a particular analyst's rating for a particular security may be public information, determining what the rating is based on and the exact meaning of the rating is often confusing and difficult to determine.
  • investors may investigate a security prior to purchase.
  • investors may rely on analysts to investigate a security.
  • professional analysts were privy to financial information that was not easily accessible to the public.
  • investors often relied on professional brokers, analysts and advisers to research and provide recommendations.
  • individual investors are now able to obtain a substantial amount of information on a real time basis regarding a particular security.
  • news stories and reports from numerous sources e.g., financial magazines and newspapers, local newspapers, brokerage recommendations, etc.
  • users may be required to pay for reports from certain brokers and research analysts (e.g., Multex).
  • some on-line brokerages and subscription based on-line financial services e.g., Yahoo Financial or Etrade
  • investors In addition to reading articles and reports, investors often seek out others' opinions and ideas. Investors may want to talk with other people about their favorite stocks or get others' opinions on a stock the investor is investigating. Further, investors may want to talk with other persons hoping to get a "hot tip" on a stock.
  • chat rooms Both message boards and chat rooms are widely and extensively utilized to discuss and strategize with regards to financial investments.
  • the information available and communicated in chat rooms is often disorganized, irresponsible, unreliable, and unaccountable.
  • users may have their own agenda and may promulgate false or misleading information. Consequently, unless users utilize the message boards or chat rooms extensively, or perform significant research on past suggestions by "idea-generators" who post messages, there is no way to distinguish good ideas from bad ideas, hype, or manipulation. Therefore, many users do not participate in chat rooms or message boards because of the unruliness, unpredictability, and unreliability of the information.
  • the Internet is a worldwide network of interconnected computers.
  • An internet user or "client” accesses a computer on the network via an internet service provider.
  • An internet service provider is an organization that provides a client (e.g., an individual or other organization) with access to the Internet (via analog telephone line or Integrated Services Digital Network line, for example).
  • a client can, for example, read information from, download a file from or send an electronic mail message to another computer /client using the Internet.
  • WWW World Wide Web
  • the components of the WWW include browser software, network links, servers, and WWW protocols.
  • the browser software, or browser is a user-friendly interface (i.e., front-end) that simplifies access to the Internet.
  • a browser allows a client to communicate a request without having to learn the underlying, often complicated command syntax.
  • a browser typically provides a graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying information and receiving input. Examples of browsers currently available include Mosaic, Netscape Navigator and Communicator and Microsoft Internet Explorer.
  • HTTP Hypertext Transport Protocol
  • HTTP has communication methods that allow clients to request data from a server and send information to the server.
  • the HTTP protocol may be modified to provide for secure transmissions (referred to as HTTPS).
  • SSL secure socket layer
  • SSL secure socket layer
  • Encryption also referred to as cryptography
  • a message is converted from a format referred to as "plaintext" into an encrypted format, known as "ciphertext".
  • the client contacts the HTTP server and transmits the request to the HTTP server.
  • the request contains the communication method requested for the transaction (e.g., GET an object from the server or POST data to an object on the server).
  • the HTTP server responds to the client by sending a status of the request and the requested information. The connection is then terminated between the client and the HTTP server.
  • a client request therefore, consists of establishing a connection between the client and the HTTP server, performing the request, and terminating the connection.
  • the HTTP server does not retain any information about the request after the connection has been terminated.
  • HTTP is, therefore, a stateless protocol. That is, a client can make several requests of an HTTP server, but each individual request is treated independent of any other request. The server has no recollection of any previous request.
  • An addressing scheme is employed to identify Internet resources (e.g., HTTP server, file or program). This addressing scheme utilizes an identifier called a Uniform Resource Locator (URL).
  • a URL identifies the protocol to use when accessing the server (e.g., HTTP), the Internet domain name of the site on which the server is running, the port number of the server, and the location of the resource in the file structure of the server.
  • Hypertext provides the ability to create links within a document to move directly to other information. Click on a hypertext link (e.g., a word or phrase) activates the link.
  • the hypertext link can be to information stored on a different site than the one that supplied the current information.
  • a URL is associated with the link to identify the location of the additional information.
  • the client's browser uses the link to access the data at the site specified in the URL.
  • the HTTP server locates the file and sends it to the client.
  • An HTTP server also has the ability to delegate work to gateway programs.
  • CGI Common Gateway Interface
  • a gateway program is referenced using a URL.
  • the HTTP server activates the program specified in the URL and uses CGI mechanisms to pass program data sent by the client to the gateway program.
  • Data is passed from the server to the gateway program via command-line arguments, standard input, or environment variables.
  • the gateway program processes the data and returns its response to the server using CGI (via standard input, for example).
  • the server forwards the data to the client using HTTP.
  • a browser displays information to a client/ user as pages or documents
  • web pages (referred to as "web pages").
  • WWW is called Hypertext Markup Language (HTML).
  • HTML Hypertext Markup Language
  • a WWW page is transmitted to a client as an HTML document.
  • the browser executing at the client parses the document and displays a page based on the information in the
  • HTML is a structural language that is comprised of HTML elements that are nested within each other.
  • An HTML document is a text file in which certain strings of characters, called tags, mark regions of the document and assign special meaning to them. These regions are called HTML elements.
  • Each element has a name, or tag.
  • An element can have attributes that specify properties of the element. Blocks or components include unordered list, text boxes, check boxes, and radio buttons, for example. Each block has properties such as name, type, and value. The following provides an example of the structure of an HTML document: ⁇ HTML>
  • Each HTML element is delimited by the pair of characters " ⁇ " and ">".
  • the name of the HTML element is contained within the delimiting characters.
  • the combination of the name and delimiting characters is referred to as a marker, or tag.
  • Each element is identified by its marker. In most cases, each element has a start and ending marker. The ending marker is identified by the inclusion of an another character, "/" that follows the " ⁇ " character.
  • HTML is a hierarchical language. With the exception of the HTML element, all other elements are contained within another element. The HTML element encompasses the entire document. It identifies the enclosed text as an
  • HTML document The HEAD element is contained within the HTML element and includes information about the HTML document.
  • the BODY element is contained within the HTML element. The BODY element contains all of the text and other information to be displayed. Other HTML elements are described in
  • the prior art does not readily provide accessible and organized mechanisms for individuals to provide their opinions, predictions and advice about financial, investment or other information of interest, or to provide those ideas to others. Further, there is no easily accessible, organized, and reliable mechanism to research and evaluate those idea generators and creators. Internet chat rooms are disorganized and unreliable. Thus, it would be beneficial to have a system that enables is needed to allow idea generators and creators to present information to interested recipients, to allow the recipients to review and evaluate history of an idea generator and creator. Such system enables an individual, for example, to determine the reliability and accuracy of an idea generator /creator's advice, and to compare an idea generator and creator to idea generator and creators in an easily understandable manner.
  • One or more embodiments of the invention provide systems and methods for creating and operating an organized, controlled, transparent, and easy-to-use marketplace of investment advice and other information of interest for information providers (also referred to as creator-sellers) and user-buyers.
  • the invention is implemented and used via the internet and world wide web.
  • other present and future communications means may be used, including, without limitation, telephonic, television, radio or other wired or wireless forms of communication.
  • a creator-seller of information uses a user interface to compose information (for example, a prediction of a stock's future performance) and sends the information, which may be referred to as an "entr y," to an information marketplace system of the invention.
  • information for example, a prediction of a stock's future performance
  • the creator-seller may specify additional information regarding the information provided. For example, if the information is a stock performance prediction , the creator-seller may specify an industry to which the entry pertains, an index that the prediction should be measured against or applies to (e.g. the entry may state that a stock will outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) by 5%).
  • DIJA Dow Jones Industrial Average
  • a creator-seller may specify a price tag for the entry which is to be paid by users before they may read the entry.
  • some or all of such additional information may be provided by the information marketplace that receives the entry.
  • the entry is added to a database containing the creator-seller's other predictions as well as those of other creator-sellers.
  • a user-buyer uses a user interface to enter search parameters into the system.
  • user interfaces used in one or more embodiments of the invention include a graphical user interface of a personal computer, a telephone touch-tone pad, or an e-mail appliance keypad.
  • a user-buyer might , for example, desire to view a listing of all entries for one security, all entries for one industry group or all entries by one particular creator-seller.
  • the user-buyer has the ability to refine the search parameters by time period of entry of the information, track record of creator-seller, or price of the entry.
  • search results /list of entries that comply with search criteria are returned to the user-buyer.
  • search requests for a particular security may be presented to the user via a web page, an e-mail message, a message sent to a wireless pager, a telephone woice message, or other means of communication.
  • the entries are presented in a relative order of creator-seller scoring according to one or more criteria, with highest scoring creator-sellers listed at the top of the list. In one or more embodiments of the invention, entries are presented in an order that reflects the creator-seller with most entries.
  • Figure 1 is a block diagram of one embodiment of a computer system capable of providing a suitable execution environment for one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Figure 2 illustrates an overall system for evaluating information providers in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Figure 3 illustrates a user interface screen for entering a prediction relating to a stock in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Figure 4 illustrates a user interface display for displaying information to a user in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Figure 5 illustrates a user interface screen that may be used to specify search criteria in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Figure 6A-6D illustrate sample formats and content of reports in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Figure 7 is a flow chart illustrating one or more aspects of one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Figure 8 is an example of a site navigation flowchart according to one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Figure 9 is a user interface navigation flowchart according to an embodiment of the invention.
  • the invention is a method and apparatus for providing financial and investment information and evaluating financial and investment information providers.
  • numerous specific details are set forth to provide a thorough description of embodiments of the invention. It is apparent, however, to one skilled in the art, that the invention may be practiced without these specific details. In other instances, well known features have not been described in detail so as not to obscure the invention.
  • An embodiment of the invention can be implemented as computer software in the form of computer readable code executed one or more general purpose computers such as computer 100 illustrated in Figure 1, or in the form of bytecode class files executable within a runtime environment running on such a computer, or in the form of bytecodes running on a processor (or devices enabled to process bytecodes) existing in a distributed environment (e.g., one or more processors on a network).
  • a keyboard 110 and mouse 111 are coupled to a system bus 118. The keyboard and mouse are for introducing user input to the computer system and communicating that user input to processor 113. Other suitable input devices may be used in addition to, or in place of, the mouse 111 and keyboard 110.
  • I/O (input /output) unit 119 coupled to system bus 118 represents such I/O elements as a printer, A/V (audio/video) I/O, etc.
  • Computer 100 includes a video memory 114, main memory 115 and mass storage 112, are coupled to system bus 118 along with keyboard 110, mouse 111 and processor 113.
  • the mass storage 112 may include both fixed and removable media, such as magnetic, optical or magnetic optical storage systems or any other available mass storage technology.
  • Bus 118 may contain, for example, thirty-two address lines for addressing video memory 114 or main memory 115.
  • the system bus 118 also includes, for example, a 64-bit data bus for transferring data between and among the components, such as processor 113, main memory 115, video memory 114 and mass storage 112. Alternatively, multiplex data /address lines may be used instead of separate data and address lines.
  • the processor 113 is a microprocessor manufactured by Sun Microsystems, Inc., such as the SPARC microprocessor, or a microprocessor manufactured by Motorola, such as the 680X0 processor, or a microprocessor manufactured by Intel, such as the 80X86, or Pentium processor.
  • Main memory 115 is comprised of dynamic random access memory (DRAM).
  • Video memory 114 is a dual-ported video random access memory. One port of the video memory 114 is coupled to video amplifier 116. The video amplifier 116 is used to drive the cathode ray tube (CRT) raster monitor 117.
  • Video amplifier 116 is well known in the art and may be implemented by any suitable apparatus. This circuitry converts pixel data stored in video memory 114 to a raster signal suitable for use by monitor 117.
  • Monitor 117 is a type of monitor suitable for displaying graphic images.
  • Computer 100 may also include a communication interface 120 coupled to bus 118.
  • Communication interface 120 provides a one or two-way data and/or voice communication coupling to any of a variety of communications media.
  • communication interface 120 may provide a voice or data communication coupling via a network link 121 to a local network 122.
  • ISDN integrated services digital network
  • communication interface 120 provides a data and /or voice communication connection to the corresponding type of telephone line, which comprises part of network link 121.
  • ISDN integrated services digital network
  • LAN local area network
  • Wireless links are also possible.
  • communication interface 120 sends and receives electrical, electromagnetic or optical signals which carry digital data streams representing various types of information.
  • Network link 121 typically provides data and /or communication through one or more networks to other data and/or voice communication devices.
  • network link 121 may provide a connection through local network 122 to local server computer 123 or to data equipment operated by an Internet Service Provider (ISP) 124.
  • ISP 124 in turn provides data communication services through the world wide packet data communication network now commonly referred to as the "Internet" 125.
  • Internet 125 uses electrical, electromagnetic or optical signals which carry digital data streams.
  • the signals through the various networks and the signals on network link 121 and through communication interface 120, which carry the digital data to and from computer 100, are exemplary forms of carrier waves transporting the information.
  • Computer 100 can send messages and receive data, including program code, through the network(s), network link 121, and communication interface 120.
  • remote server computer 126 might transmit a requested code for an application program through Internet 125, ISP 124, local network 122 and communication interface 120.
  • the received code may be executed by processor 113 as it is received, and/or stored in mass storage 112, or other non-volatile storage for later execution. In this manner, computer 100 may obtain application code in the form of a carrier wave.
  • Application code may be embodied in any form of computer program product.
  • a computer program product comprises a medium configured to store or transport computer readable code, or in which computer readable code may be embedded.
  • Some examples of computer program products are CD-ROM disks, ROM cards, floppy disks, magnetic tapes, computer hard drives, servers on a network, and carrier waves.
  • One or more embodiments of the invention provide systems and methods for creating and operating an organized, controlled, transparent, and easy-to-use information marketplace for providing and obtaining investment advice and /or financial, investment, and /or other information.
  • the participants in the information marketplace of the invention include information providers (also referred to as creator- sellers) and information recipients (also referred to as user-buyers).
  • Figure 2 illustratesthe basic structure and operation of an information marketplace in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • the invention is implemented using one or more of any variety of communication means, including voice co mmunications means such as lothe telephone , data communications means such as local and wide areza networks (including the internet and the world wide web) and wireless pagers, broadcast means such as television and radio, and any other means by which information can be transmitted or conveyed from one user or system to another.
  • voice co mmunications means such as lothe telephone
  • data communications means such as local and wide areza networks (including the internet and the world wide web) and wireless pagers
  • broadcast means such as television and radio
  • any other means by which information can be transmitted or conveyed from one user or system to another
  • a creator- seller 200 of information creates an information entry in the form of a prediction 202 (for example, regarding the future performance of a security) utilizing user interface 203 and sends it to database rating and tracking system 204.
  • creator- seller 200 may also specify additional information, or additional information may be added to the entry by the information marketplace system.
  • Such additional information may include a price tag for the entry, an industry segment to which the prediction pertains, and/or a standard index of securities performance (e.g., the DJIA) against which the prediction is to be compared (for example, the entry may state that a particular stock will underperform the DJIA by 5% over the next two months).
  • the prcie tag specifies the price that user-buyers 206 must pay in order to view the entry.
  • the entry including any additional information is added to a database maintained by database ranking and tracking system 204.
  • the database also contains other entries provided by the creator-seller and entries provided by other creator-sellers.
  • the database may also contain entries of information gathered independently by operators of the information marketplace system of the invention.
  • User-buyer 206 enters search parameters 205 into the system utilizing user interface 203.
  • user-buyer 206 might desire to view a listing of all entries for one security, all entries for one industry group or all entries by one particular creator-seller.
  • User-buyer 206 has the ability to refine the search parameters 205 by time period of entry of the information, track record of creator-seller 200 or price of the entry.
  • search results /list of entries 207 that comply with search criteria 205 are returned to user-buyer 206.
  • search requests for a particular security may be presented in order of relative creator-seller scoring with the highest scored creator-sellers listed at the top of the list.
  • any one or more of a variety of criteria may be used, such as, for example, historical accuracy of predictions.
  • the user-buyer may select a desired ranking criteria from a variety of available ranking criteria.
  • the highest ranking creator-sellers typically specify the highest relative price tags for their information.
  • a creator-seller posts or enters information
  • the creator-seller is ranked based on one or more factors
  • a user-buyer searches for specified information
  • a list of retrieved information and information about the information providers is presented to the user-buyer, and the user-buyer decides whether to purchase the returned information.
  • a creator-seller 200 of information may obtain the provided information in any desired manner. For example, if the information is information regarding a security, creator seller 200 may perform independent research by reading articles, earnings reports, etc. or may simply like a particular security. In accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention, the creator-seller 200 enters information/prediction 202 regarding performance of a security utilizing a user interface 203.
  • User interface 203 may, for example, be presented to the creator-seller 200 via a computer system, via a voice mail telephone system, or via another appliance or device. In one or more embodiments, user interface 203 may be implemented in the form of a web page that is downloaded to a user's internet appliance (e.g., Computer) and then displayed to the user.
  • a user's internet appliance e.g., Computer
  • information in addition to the prediction may be added to the entry, either by the creator-seller when creating the entry or by the receiving information marketplace system after the entry has been submitted by the creator-seller.
  • Additional information may include any desired information.
  • the additional information may specify an industry (e.g., food, internet, media, computer hardware, etc.) to which the security pertains, an index against which the entry is to be measured or compared or which the security reffered to in the entry will under- or outperform, or the desired price tag for the entry.
  • the price tag specifies the price that a user-buyer must pay in order to view the entry/prediction.
  • the price tag is set by the information marketplace system of the invention based on a relativescore derived for the entry.
  • the entry is then added to the database of database ranking and tracking system 204, which may contain the creator- seller's other entries as well as entries of other creator-sellers.
  • Figure 3 illustrates a user interface screen for entering a prediction relating to a stock.
  • a creator-seller may enter information in one or more of the boxes 300-320.
  • standard published stock symbols are used to identify the security to which an entry pertains.
  • Standard stock symbols are often four (4) or less letters and are utilized by broker-dealers to trade shares of the company represented by the symbol or by investors to view the price of a share for the company represented by the symbol.
  • the stock symbol ETYS represents the company etoys.
  • Stock symbols are widely utilized to refer to a particular company or publicly traded stock of a company. Since a creator-seller is making a prediction relating to a specific stock, the creator-seller enters the stock symbol for that stock in box 300.
  • the creator-seller may indicate a recommendation such as "buy”, “sell”, “sell short”, “hold”, etc.
  • the recommendation may utilize a nomenclature similar to the equity ratings as described above.
  • the creator-seller may not enter a recommendation in recommendation box 302 but a prediction relating to the value of a stock such as "up”, “down”, “increase”, or “decrease”, for example.
  • the creator-seller enters a target stock price. Values may be expressed in decimal form (e.g., 0.5) or in a fraction (e.g., 1/2). For example, the creator-seller may predict that the value of the stock will be 25 1/2 and will enter either 25 1/2 or 25.5 in box 304.
  • a headline or teaser e.g., "ETYS prediction” that will appear in a summary of search results (see below) may be specified in box 320.
  • an abstract or brief summary of the prediction may be specified (e.g., "They're not playing around at etoys").
  • any additional commentary such as an article written by the creator-seller may be inserted.
  • scroll bars appear as needed in boxes 308 and 310 if the entered text exceeds the amount that can be displayed at one time in either box without scrolling. Any attachments including but not limited to spreadsheets, word processing documents, images, etc.
  • the registered username e.g., creator-seller name
  • a password are entered to authenticate and verify the person making the prediction.
  • unregistered creator-sellers must first register with the information marketplace system to specify and /or obtain a valid username and password, for example by visiting a "registration" web page maintained by the information marketplace system.
  • the cost that a buyer-user must pay to view this creator-seller prediction may be specified.
  • the creator-seller may select button 322. Additional information such as the current stock price and the current date may be automatically inserted or associated with the prediction in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • the username and password specified by the creator-seller are checked to verify the identity of the creator-seller. Once the creator-seller's identity is verified, the prediction (which includes all of the information entered in boxes 300-320 and 324) may be added to the database of predictions.
  • the database containing the predictions may be implemented utilizing any type of database including a relational database system.
  • a creator-seller may be required to pay a fee in order to enter a prediction into the database.
  • a fee may be a flat fee, such as $1.00.
  • the fee may be based on the number of predictions the creator-seller has entered in the past (e.g., 10 predictions in the last 5 days may reduce the fee for inserting a prediction), or the number of hits on the creator-seller's predictions by user-buyers.
  • one or more embodiments of the invention may increase the fee (e.g., because the creator-seller is receiving a larger benefit) or may decrease the fee (e.g., because the creator-seller is attracting users to the web site).
  • a confirmation screen summarizing the creator-seller's selection may be displayed requesting confirmation of entry into the database.
  • the creator-seller may be required to confirm that a fee will be charged to the creator-seller's account.
  • the creator-seller may be required to enter credit card information.
  • the database grows more useful.
  • various mechanisms may be utilized to generate predictions and statistics in the database. For example, in one or more embodiments, a stock picking contest may be utilized. Such a contest may or may not require participants to pay an entrance fee. Additionally, such a contest may include a significant "pool" of money to award to the winners (e.g., $1,000,000).
  • free “fantasy” portfolios may be available wherein an amount of "play” money is given to participants (i.e., perspective creator-sellers) with which to enter and establish a prediction history.
  • participants i.e., perspective creator-sellers
  • predictions from professional analysts and firms may be input into the system.
  • One or more embodiments of the invention provide a scoring scheme that will translate the outcome of predictions into a number of points allowing the comparison of pickers among each other.
  • Such a scheme may take into account various factors including the accuracy of the pick (e.g., how close the predicted price is to the actual price), the accuracy in the direction of the pick (e.g., whether the stock price increased or decreased and the creator-seller predicted either an increase or decrease), the magnitude of the accuracy (e.g., whether the creator-seller predicted the stock would increase 500% and it only increased 50%), and the risk taken while making the prediction (i.e., the difficulty or boldness of the pick).
  • the accuracy of the pick e.g., how close the predicted price is to the actual price
  • the accuracy in the direction of the pick e.g., whether the stock price increased or decreased and the creator-seller predicted either an increase or decrease
  • the magnitude of the accuracy e.g., whether the creator-seller predicted the stock would increase 500% and it only increased 50%
  • the risk taken while making the prediction i.e., the difficulty or boldness of the pick.
  • one or more embodiments of the invention will rank creator-sellers not only on an "overall” basis (i.e., how all of the creator-seller's predictions performed without reference to industry or time frame), but also on the basis of time frame of the predictions (i.e., short- term, medium-term, and long-term) and on the basis of the performance of their predictions by reference to industries /sectors. Additionally, creator-seller's performance may be rated with respect to a particular stock (i.e., how well the creator-seller prediction predicted a particular stock's performance versus other predictions of that stock's performance).
  • the number of points earned for each pick, time stamp and the number of picks may be referred to as basic metrics.
  • Other metrics may be computed using two or more values of the basic metrics. For example, one derived metric may be equal to the ratio of the number of times a creator-seller was correct on the direction of the price change (up or down), by the total number of picks.
  • Such a ratio reflects the likelihood of a picker to be correct on the direction of the change.
  • One or more embodiments of the invention score and rank creator-sellers (also referred to as analysts) based on one or more of the following metrics: (1) the total number of performance points accumulated (i.e., "score points"; (2) how accurate the analyst is at predicting whether a stock will go up or down (i.e., "buy-sell accuracy” or “success direction number”), (3) how much money an investor would have made had the investor invested /sold short on the recommendation date and sold /covered on the target date of his prediction (i.e., "LRR"), (3) how accurate the analyst is at predicting the price of a stock on a particular date (i.e., "predictive accuracy”).
  • analyst picks may be scored relative to appropriate indices (e.g. the S&P 500, the Dow Transports, the total number of picks, etc.), and may be scored and ranked over a number of different time periods (i.e., based on a time stamp of each prediction such as the past quarter, past year, past 3 and/or 5 years or lifetime).
  • appropriate indices e.g. the S&P 500, the Dow Transports, the total number of picks, etc.
  • time periods i.e., based on a time stamp of each prediction such as the past quarter, past year, past 3 and/or 5 years or lifetime.
  • Score Points One or more embodiments compute score points based on one or more factors. For example, points may be allocated as a function of the accuracy of the prediction. Additionally, points may be allocated as a function of the boldness of the pick. In one or more embodiments, allocating points as a function of the accuracy may follow certain logical constraints including but not limited to:
  • Bus-Sell Accuracy This score is a simple percentage calculation of (a) the number of times the analyst was directionally correct (i.e., when the analyst predicted that the stock would go up /down by the target date, and the stock, in fact, did) without reference to how close the analyst's prediction came to the actual price, divided by (b) the number of predictions the analyst made.
  • the main attribute of this score is its simplicity. Such a score enables a user-buyer to determine that any analyst whose Buy-Sell Accuracy is over 50% is accurate more often than inaccurate (e.g., makes money more often than loses money).
  • IRR This score determines the internal rate of return by assuming that an investor made an investment of a certain amount on the date of the analyst's prediction and sold the investment on the target (termination) date.
  • One or more embodiments of the invention may adjust the IRR for risk/volatility (e.g., grant a higher score if there is a higher risk v. a lower score for a lower risk prediction).
  • the main attribute of this score is that it relates to something that more sophisticated investors relate to: return on investment (as a function of the amount of time that the investment is held).
  • a limitation of the IRR score is that, although IRR tells a lot about a particular analyst's pick, it does not tell much about the analyst.
  • Predictive Accuracy This score will be a function of how close the actual price is to the predicted price on the target date (also referred to as a "scoring function").
  • the predictive accuracy score follows the constraints for score points as described above. For example, in one or more embodiments, this scoring function grants the analyst maximum points if the actual stock price comes within a certain percentage (e.g., 5-10%) of the predicted price. The score may be adjusted downward more for "buy” predictions that miss on the downside more than those that miss by a similar amount on the upside. In one or more embodiments, an additional metric may adjust the predictive accuracy score for a "degree of difficulty".
  • a "predictive accuracy” score may be adjusted upwards (and perhaps downwards) based on one or more factors (e.g., the magnitude of predicted change in the stock price and /or time period of the prediction).
  • the scoring function may be either derived empirically, or chosen so that it accounts for the best return of picks. In the former case the accuracy values of all picks across multiple pickers will be used to plot the probability density distribution. If the function has a shape such that it conforms with the constraints mentioned above (when allocating points as a function of accuracy), then the probability function can be used as a scoring function. Alternatively, if the distribution is off centered or if it is not skewed conformably with the above constraints, a mathematical function may be used.
  • the predicted variation ratio i.e., the variation or change in the predicted price " ⁇ P" is the predicted price "P” minus the initial price "V 0 " over the initial stock price "V 0 ":
  • the actual variation ratio (i.e., the resulting variation or change, ⁇ V), with the stock price at V, is the stock price "V” minus the initial stock price "V 0 " divided by the initial stock price "V 0 ":
  • the predictions /creator-sellers are not ranked according to the above mechanisms until a user-buyer enters search criteria that would require that the creator-seller or the prediction be ranked. In other embodiment(s), a prediction and /or creator-seller are ranked immediately upon entry into the database.
  • the metrics may be displayed to a user in varying manners.
  • the metrics may be displayed to a user as they are defined, that is: (1) the "buy-sell accuracy” 400 is the simple percentage of the number of times the analyst was directionally correct divided by the number of predictions he/she made, (2) the "IRR" 402 is the standard method used to calculate internal rate of return, and (3) the "predictive accuracy” 404 is the percentage as described above. As can be seen in Figure 4, the IRR may not reflect the buy-sell accuracy or the predictive accuracy value.
  • a visually "easy-to-use" ranking system(s) may be utilized such that displays the information to the user graphically in a simple and “user friendly” manner.
  • a multi-symbol rating or graphical decile system may be used (e.g. assigning rankings from zero to five stars, or zero to five dollar signs ("$$$"), or some other number and/or type of symbol).
  • the scoring metrics may be portrayed or displayed to a user-buyer using well known statistical terms ordinarily used for baseball. Other commonly known, derived, or used statistical measures or terms may also be used. For example, in one or more embodiments, one or more of the following baseball terms may be utilized to represent the indicated values:
  • slugging average may be equal to the batting average taking into account the magnitude of price movement of the creator-seller's predictions
  • the scoring points portrayal provides a ranking system that ranks creator-sellers based on the number of points in descending order, with the highest scoring creator-sellers ranked highest (e.g., creator- sellers are ordered sequentially in 1 st , 2 nd , 3 rd , and 294* — out of 300).
  • a personal page for each user-buyer may be provided with a calculation that demonstrates a sample investment based on a particular prediction (either a past prediction or a currently purchased prediction) such as "if you invested $x,000 in each idea which you purchased (total purchases $xxx), you would have earned $YY,000".
  • a particular prediction either a past prediction or a currently purchased prediction
  • the ranking of the creator-sellers may provide the simplest, most user-friendly and straight-forward mechanism for the most potential users.
  • one or more embodiments of the invention allows the user-buyer to select how to search and view the information. For example, in one or more embodiments, a user-buyer may be provided the opportunity to retrieve results based on search criteria. Such search criteria may be stored or may be a new configuration. Alternatively, the user-buyer may retrieve search results utilizing a standard pre configured report such as a view of the highest ranked analysts or an analyst spotlight (that focuses on a particular analyst).
  • multiple search criteria may be specified.
  • search criteria may include but is not limited to the industry or sector (e.g., agriculture, automotive, biotech, healthcare, industrial, retail, specialty retail, technology, etc.), the time period (e.g., last 7 days, last 1 month, last quarter, last year, all, etc.), or the cost of the search (e.g., free, $0-2.50, $2.50-$5.00, $5.00- $7.50, $7.50-$10.00, > $10.00).
  • Figure 5 demonstrates a user interface screen that may be utilized to specify search criteria. Search criteria may be specified in one or more of fields 500-514.
  • a user-buyer may enter the ticker symbol in field 500, the industry/ sector in field 502, the analyst/creator-seller name in field 504, time period in field 506, cost in field 508, and rating information in fields 510, 512, and 514 (e.g., buy-sell accuracy, IRR and predictive accuracy).
  • the user-buyer is permitted to enter the criteria or select the criteria from a list of preconfigured criteria (e.g., from a drop-down list).
  • the user-buyer may select the "find your research" button 516 to retrieve the search results.
  • the search results may be viewed by stock, by industry, by analyst, by group of analysts (e.g., highest ranking analysts in a sector /industry, highest overall ranked analysts), by time period, by most recent predictions, by price of stock, by factors or results as described above (e.g., number of picks, number of hits, number of home runs, etc.), by creator-seller portfolio and average, or any combination of the above.
  • a user-buyer may be given the opportunity to view the user-buyer's past predictions and results, and an analysis or background of the creator-seller.
  • Figure 6 illustrates the format of a sample report in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • the report of Figure 6 was retrieved by searching the "Internet" sector.
  • Section 600 of the report provides the highest rated analysts in the internet sector.
  • Each row of section 600 provides for a different analyst with columns representing information including but not limited to the date , a stock price on the prediction input date, the length of the text of the prediction (e.g., the commentary section as input by the creator- seller), the number of previews views by other user-buyers, the cost for viewing the prediction, and an introduction (or headline as input by the creator-seller).
  • Section 602 provides for the highest overall ranked analysts in the internet sector with columns of information similar to section 600.
  • Section 604 provides for the most recent research or predictions in the internet sector will columns of information similar to sections 600 and 602.
  • the user- buyer may click or select a row (representing an analyst) to retrieve additional information on the analyst. Additionally, in each section 600-604, the user-buyer may select the "order report" button to order a report/prediction for a desired / selected prediction/ analyst.
  • a search for a specific stock may produce a similar report with sections for the highest rated analyst, most recent research, or other information on the particular stock (e.g., information regarding the most recent sale price of the stock and current statistics regarding the company).
  • the user-buyer may pay to view a creator-seller's prediction(s).
  • various factors may affect the price.
  • a creator-seller may specify a price that a user-buyer must pay. For example, the creator-seller may specify during entry of the prediction that the cost for viewing a particular prediction is $12.00.
  • the price may be set, or the creator-seller's specified price may increase or decrease, based on predetermined scoring levels, percentages or other criteria.
  • the cost may be affected by the boldness of the pick (e.g., whether the prediction is rated as an aggressive pick, a non-aggressive pick, a pick to generate income, or a pick for long-term growth). Consequently, the cost for a pick may be based on the "predictive accuracy" metric as described above.
  • the manner with which the predictions are viewed may affect the cost.
  • the cost may be affected or incurred on a per prediction viewed basis. For example, for each prediction viewed, a cost may be incurred. Alternatively, if 10 or more predictions are viewed, a discounted per prediction (or package) cost may be incurred. Similarly, if 10 or more predictions for a particular analyst are viewed, a different discounted per prediction (or package) cost may be incurred.
  • the cost may be affected or incurred based on a per portfolio view (e.g., to view the entire portfolio of a particular creator-seller or all current predictions of a particular creator-seller). Alternatively, the cost may be affected or incurred based on a per analyst per day /month /year view (e.g., a flat fee for viewing creator-seller A's predictions for November). Revenue
  • revenue may be obtained using various methods.
  • the information marketplace system of the invention is implemented in the form of a web site that presents web pages for information entry and retrieval to users.
  • Traditional information web sites provide information for free and attempt to derive revenue from banner advertising and links to advertisers on their web pages based on criteria such as the number of page views or "click thrus.”
  • the amount of revenue that can be derived using this revenue generation model has proven to be unpredictable and unreliable, with only few sites managing to generate significant amounts. Futher, there is little direct link between the quality of the information provided and the revenue generated by providing that information.
  • One or more of the present invention overcome the revenue generating problems of the prior art by requiring a user-buyer to pay for the information that is provided.
  • fee paid provides revenue both for the web site operator and by the creator-seller of the information.
  • a portion of the fee charged to a user-buyer to view a prediction or other information may be retained by the web site and a portion may be paid to the creator-seller, the breakdown may be percentage based (e.g., 20% or 30%) or it may be monetarily based (e.g., $2.00 or $5.00). For example, if a fee for viewing a prediction is $10.00, twenty percent (20%) of the fee (i.e., $2.00) may be retained by the web site, while the remaining eighty percent (80%) of $8.00 is paid to the creator-seller.
  • the portion may be increased or decreased depending on the amount of views by user-buyers accuracy of the creator-seller.
  • the revenues may be divided between web site and creator-seller in any of a variety of other desired ways.
  • creator-sellers By providing creator-sellers with the ability to obtain income when user- buyers view their predictions, creator-sellers have the potential to build a business utilizing the system of the invention. If a particular creator-seller is popular, not only can the cost for viewing the popular creator-seller's prediction increase, but the number of user-buyers willing to pay for the popular creator- seller's prediction can increase. Thus, not only can the owner of the web site benefit from a creator-seller, but the creator-seller benefits, and the user-buyer benefits (by gaining useful securities information).
  • an information marketplace system utilizing the invention may also generate revenue by requiring a creator-seller to pay a registration fee, a periodic membership fee, and /or a fee upon each entry of a prediction.
  • a web site utilizing a system of the invention may also obtain revenue in traditional ways, for example from advertisers that may pay for inserting an advertising banner on one or more locations of the web site. In this case, the amount payable by the advertiser to the web site may increase if a user-buyer selects /clicks on the advertisement to view the advertiser's web site (referred to as a "click- thru").
  • on-line securities brokerage firms may establish a relationship with the web site and agree to pay fees for click-thrus to their websites. Further, in one or more embodiments, the on-line securities brokerage firm may coordinate with the web site such that upon viewing a particular prediction, a user-buyer may automatically purchase or sell a security using their on-line brokerage account.
  • FIG. 7 is a flow chart illustrating one or more aspects of the invention.
  • the process begins at step 700.
  • the creator-seller enters a prediction and other information as described in Figure 3.
  • the prediction and analyst may be tracked and ranked (along with the creator-seller's other predictions and past history).
  • the user-buyer enters search criteria to view a particular stock, an analyst, a sector, a prediction, etc.
  • the results of the search are displayed to the user-buyer.
  • the creator-seller is compensated for the user-buyer's view of the creator-seller's prediction.
  • the amount paid to the creator-seller can be collected for a designated period of time prior to compensating the creator-seller (e.g., once a month, twice a month, every other month, etc.). Additionally, an account may be maintained at the web site such that any compensation to be paid to the creator-seller may be offset by the creator-seller's viewing of other's predictions.
  • the process is complete at step 712.
  • FIG 8 is an example of a site navigation flowchart according to one or more embodiments of the invention.
  • Users will access a web site through the a URL, for example.
  • the main page process (No.l) handles the query and determines whether the query is from a first time visitor, or from a visitor who has been recently connected to the site.
  • the main page is populated with information of picker-sellers' most recent picks. Visitors see on that page the stock ticker symbol the opening and the closing date of the picks, the headline of the pick and performance ratings of the picker and price to buy a pick.
  • the main page will allow a visitor to sort the information presented by any of the previously mantioned metrics (opening date, closing date, ticker symbol, analysts performance etc.).
  • the main page will also provide links to other functionalities on the site such as help pages (2), ticker symbol(3) etc. From the main page visitors may also chose to buy an advice, sell an advice, or go the a page about specific analyst. The latter query is handled by process (4)
  • Process (4) populates the page with information about a specific analyst. It will also allow them to query the sites database about the picks history of the pickers, his/her performance in respect to industry, sector or certain well know stock market indices. In addition, picker will be compared to all analysts on the database and ranked accordingly. If visitor decide to buy the right to view a prediction the visitor is taken to a page which shows the most recently purchased pick in addition to all the ones the visitor purchased n the same session. Tis query is handled by process program (5).
  • Process(5) presents the summary of all recently purchased picks.
  • Process 5 also provide links to the site visitor to buy more picks or check out. If visitor chooses to check out process (6) is called to handle the transaction.
  • Process (6) Check whether visitor has already signed in, if so, visitor is connected to process (7), otherwise visitor is presented with the login page.
  • the login page prompts the visitor for his/her login name and password. If visitor is a regular buyer member, visitor is connected to process (7) to view the content of his/hers recently and previously purchased picks. If visitor is not a web site buyer member, the visitor has also the possibility to register.
  • the registration process is handled by process (10).
  • Process (10) displays a form which captures new buyer member information such as credit card number and expiration date, address etc. If the buyer were connected to process (10) to view pick the member is connected to process (7) to view picks, otherwise member is connected to process (12) to view personal information.
  • Process (12) presents the member's personal information, and link to a process (13) which allows members to edit their information.
  • Process (13) presents members account information in an editable format and allows them to update it through process (14).
  • Process (14) saves the new information updated by member to the database, and connects him/her back to process (1).
  • Process (1) presents among other functionalities a link to make a pick through process (8).
  • Process (8) displays forms to visitors which allows them to make new picks.
  • a pick consist of entering a closing date, a target price, a small recommendation (e.g. Buy, sell etc.), a headline (will pbe publicly displayed), a report explaining the reasons for the pick, and a price which will be charge to view the reports.
  • visitor is done populating the pick's page process (8) determines whether visitor has already signed in or not. If visitor has signed
  • User Interface Navigation Flowchart Figure 9 illustrates a user interface navigation flowchart according to one or more embodiments of the invention and is described below.
  • Functional options include the ability to resort the table on the page by any column header and the ability to add items to the Shopping Cart by clicking the stock price or by clicking on the word "BUY" adjacent to the price.
  • This page displays all of the analysts open picks as well as their ranking statistics and an optional "bio”. Users have all of the same options as the home page plus a link back to the Home Page. In addition, users have the ability to link to a History Page which shows the Analyst's Prediction History.
  • Member-Buyers can access the reports they purchase by clicking a link from their member page.

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Abstract

Un ou plusieurs modes de réalisation de l'invention concernent des systèmes et des procédés servant à produire et à faire fonctionner un marché de conseils financiers et/ou d'informations financières organisé, contrôlé, transparent, et facile à utiliser, destiné à des fournisseurs d'informations (également appelés créateurs-vendeurs) et des utilisateurs-acheteurs. Dans un ou plusieurs modes de réalisation, l'invention est appliquée et utilisée sur l'Internet et le World Wide Web. Dans un ou plusieurs modes de r éalisation, un créateur-vendeur d'informations se sert d'une interface utilisateur pour composer des informations (par exemple, la prévision de résultat d'une action) et envoie ces informations, opération pouvant être désignée par l'appellation "entrée", à un système de marché d'informations de l'invention. Un utilisateur-acheteur se sert d'une interface utilisateur pour entrer des paramètres de recherche dans le système. Parmi les exemples d'interfaces utilisateur dont il est question dans un ou plusieurs modes de réalisation de l'invention, on trouve une interface utilisateur graphique d'un ordinateur personnel, un clavier téléphonique Touch-Tone, ou le clavier d'un dispositif de courrier électronique. Lorsque l'utilisateur-acheteur a entré ces paramètres de recherche, les résultats de la recherche / la liste des entrées qui satisfont aux critères de recherche sont restituées à l'utilisateur-acheteur. Dans un ou plusieurs modes de réalisation, une requête de recherche d'un titre particulier peut être proposée à l'utilisateur via une page Web, un message par courrier électronique, un message par radiomessageur, un message vocal téléphonique, ou via d'autres moyens de communication. Dans un ou plusieurs modes de réalisation, les entrées sont présentées selon un ordre d'évaluation des créateurs-vendeurs sélectionnés à partir d'un ou de plusieurs critères, les créateurs-vendeurs ayant obtenu la meilleure évaluation étant inscrits en tête de liste.
PCT/US2000/018244 1999-07-02 2000-06-30 Procede et appareil permettant d'evaluer des fournisseurs d'informations financieres WO2001002985A2 (fr)

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US7813986B2 (en) 2005-03-25 2010-10-12 The Motley Fool, Llc System, method, and computer program product for scoring items based on user sentiment and for determining the proficiency of predictors
US7882006B2 (en) 2005-03-25 2011-02-01 The Motley Fool, Llc System, method, and computer program product for scoring items based on user sentiment and for determining the proficiency of predictors
WO2011055413A1 (fr) * 2009-11-09 2011-05-12 Togawa Rikio Système de marché libre
US8370244B1 (en) * 2008-09-25 2013-02-05 Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. Method and system relating to social media technologies
US11522992B2 (en) 2011-01-12 2022-12-06 Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Portable computing devices optimized for displaying different content types and single action-programmed graphical user elements, and methods/systems of use thereof
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Cited By (6)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US7813986B2 (en) 2005-03-25 2010-10-12 The Motley Fool, Llc System, method, and computer program product for scoring items based on user sentiment and for determining the proficiency of predictors
US7882006B2 (en) 2005-03-25 2011-02-01 The Motley Fool, Llc System, method, and computer program product for scoring items based on user sentiment and for determining the proficiency of predictors
US8370244B1 (en) * 2008-09-25 2013-02-05 Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. Method and system relating to social media technologies
WO2011055413A1 (fr) * 2009-11-09 2011-05-12 Togawa Rikio Système de marché libre
US11522992B2 (en) 2011-01-12 2022-12-06 Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Portable computing devices optimized for displaying different content types and single action-programmed graphical user elements, and methods/systems of use thereof
US20230177787A1 (en) * 2020-05-07 2023-06-08 Sony Group Corporation Information processing device, information processing system, and program

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