WO1998044443A1 - Outils d'apprentissage interactifs selon differents modes pour systemes informatiques - Google Patents

Outils d'apprentissage interactifs selon differents modes pour systemes informatiques Download PDF

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Publication number
WO1998044443A1
WO1998044443A1 PCT/US1998/006693 US9806693W WO9844443A1 WO 1998044443 A1 WO1998044443 A1 WO 1998044443A1 US 9806693 W US9806693 W US 9806693W WO 9844443 A1 WO9844443 A1 WO 9844443A1
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WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
results
displaying
user
tokens
associating
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PCT/US1998/006693
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English (en)
Inventor
James B. Williams
Stanley W. Lyness
Francois G. Gadenne
William J. Fox
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Rational Investors, Inc.
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
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Publication date
Application filed by Rational Investors, Inc. filed Critical Rational Investors, Inc.
Priority to AU69507/98A priority Critical patent/AU6950798A/en
Publication of WO1998044443A1 publication Critical patent/WO1998044443A1/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/04—Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G09—EDUCATION; CRYPTOGRAPHY; DISPLAY; ADVERTISING; SEALS
    • G09B—EDUCATIONAL OR DEMONSTRATION APPLIANCES; APPLIANCES FOR TEACHING, OR COMMUNICATING WITH, THE BLIND, DEAF OR MUTE; MODELS; PLANETARIA; GLOBES; MAPS; DIAGRAMS
    • G09B19/00—Teaching not covered by other main groups of this subclass
    • G09B19/18—Book-keeping or economics

Definitions

  • This invention relates generally to the field of educational computer applications, and more particularly to educational computer applications involving the manipulations of complex data and the interactive displays thereof operating in a network environment such as the Internet.
  • Modern Portfolio Theory which optimizes investments in the securities in a portfolio so that the risks associated with the different types of securities in the portfolio do not move in lockstep with each other but exhibit what is known as low covariance — in which the risk for one investment is likely to decrease as the risk for another with low covariance tends to go up.
  • a median is the middle value of a frequency distribution such as a Gaussian distribution such that the probabilities of the variable taking a value below and above it are equal. In other words, making plans based on a median is the same as taking a 50/50 chance that the individual's retirement fund will run out of money. Occasionally, a planner may use a 75th percentile for life expectancy instead of a median, providing a somewhat higher probability of adequate retirement funding — but still allowing for a 1 in 4 chance that the funding will run out. Second, the plans and programs that project future earnings of a portfolio of selections based on average returns in the past, also introduce another 50/50 chance that projected average returns will not be there in the future.
  • An educational computer system that includes interactive interface controls as well as aural and kinetic interface controls to assist in educating a user, in profiling a user, and in controlling and monitoring the implementation of complex actions.
  • the system allows the user to indicate, either directly or indirectly, a confidence level that he or she desires for an action, as well as other characteristics and constraints appropriate to the action.
  • the user is able to manipulate the interface controls to evaluate returns from actions for which probabilistic distribuitons exist in terms of confidence and risk.
  • User interactions can be tailored to the user's learning style, whether visual, aural or kinetic.
  • It is an aspect of this invention includes educational features directed to different learning styles.
  • Yet another aspect of the present invention is that it can be tailored to a user's general preferences for learning and absorbing information.
  • Yet another aspect of the present invention is that it provides a confidence indicator for selected actions based on probabilistic distributions.
  • Figure la is a schematic depiction of a two dimensional color slider control and confidence indicator according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lb is a schematic drawing of a two-dimensional color slider control and confidence indicator according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lc is a color schematic drawing of a two-dimensional slider control
  • Figure Id is a color schematic drawing of a graphics window and confidence indicator according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure le is a color schematic drawing of a graphics window and confidence indicator according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure If is a color schematic drawing of an interactive asset allocator according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lg is a color schematic drawing of an interactive asset allocator according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lh is a color schematic drawing of a comprehensive interactive planner according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure li is a color schematic of a comprehensive planner according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lj is a color schematic of a time risk indicator according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure Ik is a flow diagram of a virtual investment advisor according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure IL is a flow diagram of an investment support system according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure IM is a schematic drawing of a configuration of the present invention.
  • Figure IN is a schematic drawing of an implementation of the present invention
  • Figure 2a is a schematic diagram in grey scale of a two dimensional slider control according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 2b is a schematic diagram in grey scale of a three dimensional slider control according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 2c is a schematic diagram in grey scale of a three dimensional slider control that displays two-dimensional representation rather than a projection of a three-dimensional cube, according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 3 is a flow diagram of the controls for the two-dimensional slider according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 4 is a flow diagram of the logic for the allocation control according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 5 is a flow diagram of a three-dimensional slider control according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 6 a is an illustrative profiling screen shown in color according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 6b is an another illustrative profiling screen shown in color according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 6c is a third illustrative profiling screen shown in color according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 6d is another illustrative profiling screen shown in color according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 6e is also an illustrative profiling screen shown in color according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 7a shows an illustrative display screen in color depicting the projected returns from a portfolio according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 7b shows another illustrative display screen in color depicting the results of holding a portfolio according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 7c shows still another illustrative display screen in color depicting the results of holding a portfolio according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 8 is a chart of cumulative normal distribution according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 9 shows graphs of probabilistic distributions.
  • Figure 10 is a schematic diagram of a client profile database entry according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure 11a is an indicator for showing historical performance of the stock market according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lib is an indicator showing historical performance of the stock market according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lie is an indicator showing historical performance of the stock market according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lid is an indicator showing historical performance of the stock market according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • Figure lie is an indicator showing historical performance of the stock market according to the method and apparatus of the present invention.
  • the confidence indicator interactive color display 02 of the virtual investment advisor of a preferred embodiment is shown.
  • the confidence indicator interactive color display 02 includes a combined risk
  • Underneath confidence indicator interactive color display 02 is a color bar 14 showing the continuum of colors associated with risk of loss (orange
  • a user of the investment or portfolio of investments is held, and the y axis representing the projected volatility of the investment.
  • the system manipulates a pointing device to move target 06 around in combined risk window 04.
  • the pointing device could be a mouse, a joystick, trackball, keyboard, touch pad, or any of a number of similar devices for communicating the results of a physical gesture by a user to a
  • target 06 points to an area of combined risk window 04 representing a long holding period for a portfolio of volatility that is roughly identical to that of the market as a whole. This can be seen in volatility window 08, where the red
  • combined risk window 04 is colored light green, to visually convey that an appropriate investment risk level has been selected.
  • target 06 is positioned at an x-y location of combined risk window 04 showing a short holding period and a portfolio that is more volatile than the market.
  • volatility window 08 red line 09 is seen to be more volatile than the black line 07 the market volatility line.
  • inflation loss window 10 shows that the risk of loss potentially caused by inflation for this portfolio would be low, capital loss window 12 shows that there is a very high risk of loss for capital with this strategy.
  • volatility window 08 the contents of volatility window 08, inflation loss window 10 and capital loss window 12 are generated simultaneously with the movement of target 06 in combined risk window 04, so that apparently instant feedback is available in color to the user indicating the significance of a change in strategy.
  • target 06 has been moved in combined risk window 04 to an x,y location corresponding to a holding period close to five years in length and for a portfolio with an estimated volatility that is less than market volatility.
  • a preferred embodiment of the present invention calculates the confidence level to associate with this proposed investment (as will be described in more detail below) and generates a dark green color for combined risk window 04, indicating a very acceptable risk level, which is also reflected in the risk of capital loss window 12, and inflation loss window 10. Notice also in volatility window 08, that the volatility of this portfolio 09, is less than the volatility of the market 07.
  • triangles 07 represent a recommended time horizon that has already been calculated. As will be apparent to those skilled in the art, similar triangles 07 could be used on the y or volatility axis of combined risk window 04 to show a recommended volatility level, if desired.
  • confidence indicator interactive color display 02 allows users who learn best by visual aids to see, instantaneously and graphically, what the results of a given investment strategy might be.
  • the confidence indicator interactive color display 02 for providing immediate feedback on investment options
  • the parameters might be as simple as a topographical map with x and y coordinates, in which the x coordinate represents distance and the y coordinate the varying height of the land mass over a distance.
  • reasonably continuous is meant a situation or function which is not supersensitive to the smallest of changes, but one which responds to changes in a somewhat measured manner, hence "continuous.”
  • confidence indicator interactive color display 02 uses confidence indicator interactive color display 02 to dynamically show the confidence level a user may have for a suggested portfolio over time, it can also be used, as stated, to show the result of any reasonably continuous function in a way that shields the user from unnecessary visual complexity or iterative displays.
  • FIG. Ik and IL flow diagrams show the overall flow of the virtual investment advisor, the investment support system, and the confidence indicator interactive color display 02 of a preferred embodiment of the present
  • the system initializes a virtual investment advisor for the user by specifying, at step 105, the activities it is to perform and the techniques to use.
  • the present invention selects from a number of
  • a preferred embodiment of the present invention simulates the results that might occur from the recommendations made by a virtual investment advisor using historical performance data, and measure the performance of the portfolio recommended by the virtual investment advisor. This measurement can be used as input to the calculations for the confidence indicator interactive color display 02, or as inputs to the investment allocator described below.
  • the " present invention stores the results of the measurements in a virtual investment advisor performance database as will be described below.
  • typical performance data includes measures of portfolio return, risk, risk-adjusted returns, attributional measures such as types of securities selected, nature of returns (capital gains versus dividends), and operation measures such as frequency of trading and sensitivity of results to precise execution of brokerage orders, among other items.
  • FIG. Ik illustrates, the creation of a new virtual investment advisor can occur independently of the other actions of the present invention.
  • one or more virtual investment advisors exist, they can be matched, beginning at step 130 of Figure Ik to a particular client, thus a client may have several virtual investment advisors.
  • a complete subsystem using just one virtual investment advisor might be used, such as a retirement planning system for recommending
  • client profile information is gathered at step 135.
  • this allows the present invention to store information about the client's age, income, financial goals, net worth, tax status,
  • an evaluation function for that profile.
  • an evaluation function could be as simple as finding maximum investment return, maximum risk-
  • an evaluation function could be arbitrarily complex, taking into account such additional factors as after-tax returns, transaction cost models, client aversion to volatility or risk of loss over time, and so on.
  • the invention presents the best virtual investment advisor VIA, performance and evaluation to the client. This can be done in conjunction with the confidence indicator interactive color display 02 , the investment allocator, and with the other interactive learning features of the present invention, described in more detail below.
  • the investment allocator described below is used to display the suggested allocation and allow the user to either override the suggested one, or accept it.
  • the investment support system allows the user to specify or modify his or her profile. If the new profile requires the selection of a new virtual investment advisor, this is done at steps 210 and 215, with the results of the simulation and analysis function interactively displayed with the confidence indicator interactive color display 02 and or the investment allocator at step 220. If the user accepts this new virtual investment advisor, this is noted at step 230 and the virtual investment advisor is engaged for that user's portfolio and that fact is stored in the client profile database.
  • a virtual investment advisor is implemented as a software agent, which, when given instruction by the user continues to execute from time to time, independent of user action in order to represent the investment interests of the user. Changes in the markets or securities in the portfolio may trigger the virtual investment advisor VIA to notify the user through the investment support system that attention is required.
  • This latter process is seen in Figure IL, showing that a virtual investment advisor VIA was engaged, at step 235 and at step 240 is now either making a periodic request on its own, or at the prompting of the user.
  • the virtual investment advisor performs its security selection and trading processes at step 245.
  • the investment support system may be informed at step 250 that the virtual investment advisor is recommending changes in the client's portfolio.
  • the investment support system can obtain the client's approval for the changes in one of two ways.
  • the investment support system can display the recommended changes and ask the user whether or not he or she accepts them, or, if a virtual investment advisor software agent has been authorized by the client to approve trades independently, the investment support system can verify this fact.
  • the investment support system will determine in one of these two ways whether or not the proposed changes should be implemented. If they have been approved, the investment support system at step 265 will cause the trade to be executed, at step 265 by means described in more detail below.
  • the results of the trade are analyzed and reported to the user.
  • periodic and on-demand reporting is also available.
  • the investment support system in addition to hosting virtual investment advisors can answer questions or provide advice a user might need, for example such as the mathematical relationship of any two or more of the following areas. These can be made available to the user for interactive/kinetic analysis as it pertains to his or her specific circumstances: rate of savings; style/objective of investment; investment risk or comfort; retirement income expectations.
  • confidence is used as both an input the user can specify as a desired level, as well as a computed output.
  • investment support system ISS 300 in a preferred embodiment, is a computer program stored in a computer that is also connected to a display terminal 302, a client profile database 318, a series of virtual investment advisors 306, 308, 310, and a virtual investment advisor database 312.
  • the computer in which investment support system ISS 300 is executing is also in communication with another computer 320, over telecommunications network 322 in a preferred embodiment.
  • investment support system ISS 300 could also communicate with display terminal 302 over the Internet, as well. This configuration is shown in Figure IN, where investment support system ISS 300 is connected over telecommunications network 322 to display terminal 302, as well as to remote computer 320.
  • remote computer 320 might be located at the site of a brokerage firm authorized to accept and execute securities transactions for the users of the present invention.
  • computer 320 might be located at a brokerage and in communications with various stock exchange computers 324, 326 and 328, to effect such transactions.
  • stock exchange computers 324, 326 and 328 to effect such transactions.
  • FIG. Id a different preferred embodiment of the confidence indicator of the present invention is shown.
  • an interactive text, color graphic and sound window 15 is shown.
  • a user may click on buttons 16 highlighted in a specific color, such as yellow in the example shown, to obtain more text, or if desired, to hear an aural presentation of the concepts.
  • audio scripts are accompanied by an animation of the screen display(s), that point out the controls of the present invention or highlight them as they are discussed, and show the movable control elements in motion. Again, this helps the user see, hear, and feel how to use them in a way that is much more immediate and clear than written help text or a manual of instructions.
  • the user will naturally tend to use the interface controls of the present invention that are most suited to his or her learning style.
  • the present invention uses information supplied by a user in a profiling process (described below), the present invention displays, in the example shown in Figure Id, the results of a planned portfolio of investments based on the user's anticipated contributions. This can be shown in many more ways than those illustrated herein. For example, returns at different confidence levels could be shown, probable interim loss, volatility, sensitivity to interest rates, country, industrial sector economic performance, etc., could all be shown, as well as a number of other factors without deviating from the spirit of the present invention.
  • buttons 16-1 and 16-2 of Figure Id allows the user to enter a number in box 19, or, if desired, move slider 18 to indicate the amount of money the user wishes to save each year in a tax-deferred investment account such as a US 401 (k) account.
  • the present invention calculates the confidence level that the user can associate with meeting the specified goals with that level of annual investment.
  • the present invention indicates that the user will need to earn a 15.6% average annual return to meet the stated goal.
  • button 16-4 shows a confidence level expressed as a percentage, in box 19b and as a bar graph 20 that the user will achieve the stated goal with the stated annual investment.
  • the present invention calculates that the likelihood of meeting the goal is at the 53% level, or roughly one chance in two that the goal will not be met. Bar graph 20 also shows this pictorially, with the likelihood expressed in a red color (indicating an undesirable risk level), and with text indicators such as the tag line "50% — risky, save more now or later.”
  • the present invention uses any of several approaches.
  • a desired confidence level is known, and the risk factors occur in a probabilistic distribution, as shown for median life expectancy in graph A of Figure 9, the present invention selects the percentile in the distribution shown in graph B of Figure 9 that will be more likely to yield that result for each curve. For example, if life expectancy is a factor, and the user wants to be 95% sure that funds will be available for his or her retirement, there are two ways the present invention can analyze results to achieve the desired confidence level. First, the 95th percentile of life expectancy could be selected, instead of the median or 50th percentile.
  • the probability of living to a certain age is calculated using known procedures from mortality tables. Next, this can be combined with the expectations of return to calculate the probability that a given amount of money invested in a portfolio would yield the desired funds.
  • the present invention first ascertains the degree of confidence the user would like for his or her plan, regarding life expectancy and investment performance, either separately or together. This could be expressed not only as a percent, but in odds, or other subjective or metaphorical measures, such as "give me 5-Star plan” etc., which the present invention transforms into a numeric value.
  • life expectancy is computed from mortality tables.
  • the present invention can calculate the ranks or percentiles from which to calculate confidence.
  • the present invention can calculate the ranks or percentiles from which to calculate confidence.
  • normal distributions also known as Gaussian or bell-shaped curves
  • analytic approaches are available such as the formula given below.
  • numerical methods known in the art can be used.
  • the present invention has a planning horizon.
  • the end point of the user's time horizon for this example would be set either at retirement age or at a point between retirement and life expectancy.
  • start_amt is present value
  • goal _amt is future value
  • annual_addition is payment
  • rate is a decimal rate of return, to use terms familiar to those who work with financial or compound interest calculations.
  • nStdDeviations (rate-mean_return(portfolio))/(stddev(portfolio) * years/ sqrt (years))
  • nStdDeviations (rate-mean_return(portfolio))/(stddev(portfolio) * years/ sqrt (years))
  • the graph in Figure 8 can help to illustrate this by showing the relation of this normal cumulative function to the familiar "bell curve” or Gaussian distribution.
  • the normal distribution or bell curve is shown in red along the right axis, with the cumulative normal distribution shown in blue along the left axis.
  • This formula is an integration from minus infinity to x of the normal distribution about the mean ⁇ with standard deviation ⁇ .
  • the mean is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.
  • the graph of Figure 8 shows, for example, that the probability of a result of 0 is about twice that of a result of 1 (or -1), and about 4 times the probability of 2 or (-2) occurring.
  • the cumulative normal distribution curve shows that 10% (0.1) of the samples probably lie below -1.7, while 50% lie below 0 (the mean and median) and two-thirds lie below 0.5, with nearly 100% lying below 2.5.
  • color mapping is used to show these confidence levels in a way that makes the results much easier to understand.
  • the color mapping is arbitrary, as it is intended to use an additional channel of information, namely, cultural norms for color meaning, to summarize the % confidence numbers.
  • confidence levels from 100% to 50% could be shown as gradually moving from full green to full red, going through yellow, with confidence levels from 50% to 05 going from full red to full black.
  • RGB red, green, blue
  • percent_red maximum(-c,0) color.
  • the investment confidence level for the recommended portfolio is measured as standard deviations from the mean according to the cumulative normal function:
  • ⁇ is the mean
  • ⁇ (or sigma) is the standard deviation
  • e is the base of natural logarithms
  • ⁇ is the ratio of the circumference of a circle to its diameter. This formula sums the probability of an event or sample occurring at x or below.
  • the present invention would find the portfolio or choice with the maximum percentile rank.
  • confidence indicator interactive color display 02 uses confidence indicator interactive color display 02 to interactively show the results of various investment strategies, as will be apparent to those skilled in the art, the same indicators can be used for other industries where the parameters vary in two dimensions similar to the investment risks shown here.
  • window 30 shows a bar chart 32, with coin symbols 33, apportioned into various stacks 46.
  • a series of gauges are positioned beneath various texts, indicating for example at gauge 34 for Treasury bills, the historical mean return of that investment.
  • Treasury bills for example show a historical mean return of 4%, the black line on the meter and plus or minus 2 standard deviations from the mean, as indicated by the red area of the meter.
  • the stack of coins 46 allocated to gauge 34 for Treasury bills is nearly 60% of the total portfolio.
  • Graph 50 shows in two colors, the results of the allocations indicated in Figure If. In this example, most of the coins are allocated to investments with low risk of capital loss but with a likelihood of lower return than higher risk investments.
  • the investment allocator as part of the whole investment support system can show current allocations, show recommended allocations, and let the user control the allocations by manipulating the stacks of coins (by moving one or more of the coins from one stack to another, for example). Since the present invention interactively displays the probable consequences of any change instigated by the user, it also helps the user understand and learn, interactively, about the effect of allocations on risk and return. As will be apparent to those skilled in the art, the investment allocator could use symbols other than coins for manipulation of other types of mathematical functions in other applications of the present invention.
  • Figures 6a through 6e portions of the user profiler of the present invention are shown.
  • the profiling is for a simple retirement planner.
  • the user is asked for age, income and retirement age data.
  • Figure 6b the user is asked to specify (and also provided with some educational information) his or her goals for retirement income.
  • Figure 6c shows the 2d slider control of the present invention, described above, that allows the user to specify his or her contributions to the plan.
  • Figure 6d of the profiler of a preferred embodiment asks the user to specify a confidence level he or she desires for the plan, while also providing some background on the results of different levels.
  • the user is asked how confident he or she wishes to be that the income for retirement will not run out during the user's life expectancy.
  • Figure 6e also includes more informational material to help the user understand the implications of the choices.
  • Figures 7a through 7c the results of an optimizer feature of the present invention are shown.
  • the present invention's virtual investment advisors make use of existing analytical tools, such as modern portfolio theory, efficient portfolios, linear regression analysis, etc., to screen securities for potential inclusion in a portfolio.
  • Figure 7a shows that for a portfolio of 40% government bond funds and 60% growth & income funds, for this user's goals and needs (income, needs, savings, other sources, life expectancy, etc.) the probable retirement income would be as shown by the blue bar.
  • the smaller graph in Figure 7a shows expected return of the "efficient portfolios" constructed according to modern portfolio theory (those combinations of the seven investment classes that have maximum return for a given volatility risk).
  • Figure 7c shows a 20 year time horizon. Note that for the same portfolio, the 70 and 90% confidence curves have moved up, verifying the notion that over a long period you can reasonably take more risk with investments. Note that the median does not change with horizon.
  • Figure 7b shows 20 years, but the optimizer of a virtual investment advisor of the present invention has found the portfolio with the optimum 90% confidence. Note that in a preferred embodiment, the confidence-based optimizer will find different portfolios at three years based on confidence level required (each confidence level's maximum point may correspond to a different portfolio).
  • Figure lh there are shown, in exploded detail, the kind of indications shown on a smaller scale in chart 50 from Figure lg.
  • data from a user profile is shown, in part, in overview window 60, indicating the amount of money in savings today at box 66, the starting age of the user at box 68, the yearly savings he or she plans to invest at box 70, the accumulated rate of return desired at box 72, the planned retirement age at box 74.
  • retirement savings As indicated in this chart, based on the data supplied by the user there would be retirement savings as shown in box 76. If plan withdrawals are as shown at box 82, the retirement rate of return for the savings would be as shown in box 84.
  • FIG. lj a graphic depiction of portfolio returns showing absolute returns, and comparisons to benchmarks is shown.
  • the user is able to see how his or her recommended (or actual) portfolio compares to others.
  • benchmarks are chosen to be appropriate comparisons for the user's portfolio, where appropriateness means similar risk. For example, if the portfolios consist of large US Stocks, the Standard and Poors (S&P) 500 Index is a good benchmark. For worldwide stocks, the S&P 500 might be interesting as a benchmark, but the EAFE index (the Morgan Stanley Europe Americas Far East index) is probably better. As will be apparent to those skilled in the art, there are techniques for risk-adjusting performance to make such comparisons more valid.
  • S&P 500 Index the Morgan Stanley Europe Americas Far East index
  • the colorFunction of Figure lj is arbitrary and can be continuous or discrete.
  • the examples shown in Figure lj are discrete and labelled in the legend.
  • P[x+y]/P[x] which is itself the ratio of the ending value to the beginning value
  • P[x+y]/P[x] which is itself the ratio of the ending value to the beginning value
  • the benchmark performance of the same period If the portfolio is greater, the point is colored green, if less, the point is colored red.
  • all combinations of starting time and holding period where the portfolio underperformed would be red, and the user is able to quickly see the gross performance, and more specifically, the time periods or holding periods that were unusually good or bad.
  • the inputs to the color function used in Figure lj could be any series of numbers in any industry one wants to compare.
  • x could be flight takeoff time
  • y could be flight duration
  • the color function could be the given satisfaction of passengers measured against a benchmark of the attitudes of people at that time who are not on an airplane. From such a comparison, airline management could see if there are times and flight durations that should be avoided or encouraged because of the effect on passenger satisfaction, or whether some service should be performed during flight to improve satisfaction.
  • FIG 3 a flow diagram of the overall logic of the interactive two-dimensional color confidence indicator 02 of the present invention.
  • a pointer event such as a mouse click or a keystroke occurs, (say within combined risk window 04 of Figure la) and is interpreted by the present invention.
  • v is the color or pattern to be displayed surrounding the position indicator.
  • the color function is arbitrary, in that any colors that have positive and negative associations in prevailing cultural norms can be selected.
  • the present invention uses the f(x,y) roughly as follows: x is the time horizon, and y is investment volatility (risk) undertaken in a portfolio; f (x,y) is the confidence that a portfolio with such risk will meet a goal by time horizon x, with confidence being calculated as discussed above. The confidence is then mapped to the colors to show the user the result without requiring the user to understand and interpret risk/ confidence concepts and percentages.
  • This device can indicate results other than confidence, such as the probable maximum amount that a portfolio could fall over any interim period during the time horizon. This might be called “drawdown” in some areas of finance or "maximum adverse equity excursion.”
  • the present invention can calculate the drawdown for a portfolio to a given level of confidence. For example, to estimate the worst probable loss of portfolio value (from a high value to the lowest value subsequent) over any time period within the time horizon, the present invention would first find the number of standard deviations represented by that confidence level. To estimate the worst probable loss with 95% confidence (that is, only a 5% chance that the actual worst loss will be greater than the estimate), the present invention could use the cumulative normal distribution function shown in Figure 8 and described above to see that 5% is roughly -2 standard deviations.
  • the worst loss can thus be converted to colors, such as green for no loss to red for 90% loss) and displayed with the two- dimensional slider of the present invention as the user controls the years with the x axis and standard_deviation with the y axis.
  • the present invention responds to a pointer drag begin event, transmitted to it by the operating system.
  • the present invention associates coordinates with one or more tokens or coins in a stack or a block of coins left in a "being moved" state from a previous operation.
  • Decision block 410 checks to see if there is a match to and if there is none, the gesture is ignored at step 420.
  • a match means that the x,y coordinates of the event are inside (or within some tolerance) of the area occupied by a block of one or more tokens.
  • tokens will be selected if they individually have coordinates at or above the pointer. If a block of previously selected tokens in the being moved state are matched, then that block is selected. If a block is being moved, the present invention will ignore attempts to select tokens on a stack, so that only one set or block can be moved at a time. For other applications, this may not be a necessary restriction.
  • the present invention selects the tokens on either the stack or the "being moved” state and returns at step 425.
  • the invention continues handling the event, by checking at step 515 to see if any were selected. If either a stack or a "being moved" state had been selected, the system, at step 510 moves the selected tokens or coins following the pointer to an area within the confines of the display area indicated by the pointer, and returns at step 525.
  • the system checks, at step 440 to see if any had been selected. If they have, they are associated to a stack and if a match is found at step 460, the tokens, at step 500 are dropped onto the target stack.
  • a match means, roughly that the coordinates of the block of tokens being moved corresponds to a stack, then the block is "dropped" onto the stack, and those tokens now belong to that stack. If no match within tolerance can be found, the token block may be returned to the starting point, or left at the last position in the "being moved" state.
  • the present invention selects from one or more virtual investment advisors to provide portfolio analysis and recommendations to a user. This is done at step 145 of Figure Ik where the invention specifies the security selection and trading algorithms to be used.
  • the invention specifies the security selection and trading algorithms to be used.
  • a virtual investment advisor VIA
  • a preferred embodiment of the present invention can optionally simulate its performance using historical market data, or project its performance based on historical averages.
  • a VIA performs two main processes or activities: security selection and trading . It is possible for a VIA to have only security selection, leaving the connection of security selection to trades up to the user.
  • Security selection involves screening, ranking, or some other processing to determine a list of securities suitable for the user. Suitability is determined using the user profile. For example, a profile objective of "value-style common stocks" could be implemented by screening a securities database for stock value criteria such as low price /earnings (P/E) ratio and high dividend yield.
  • P/E low price /earnings
  • a time horizon time until the purpose of the investment changes
  • a time horizon time until the purpose of the investment changes
  • trading management strategies might compare the existing portfolio holdings and their selection rankings against the rankings in the universe of securities not currently held in this user's portfolio, with the resulting recommendation being to sell current holdings with lower ranks and buy securities with the highest ranks.
  • an obvious refinement, among many, would be to consider trading costs so as to limit the amount of trading.
  • Figure 11a allows the user to see a summary display of US historical stock market performance for all one-year time periods, indicating a best performing year, a worst performing year and an average performing year.
  • Figure lib shows the same data but for a holding period of 5 years
  • Figure lie which shows 25 years.
  • Figure lid shows the user can see the individual tracks of all holding periods during the history.
  • Figure He allows the user to superimpose on the charts of Figure lid, any particular year or statistic he or she would like to compare to the cluster chart.
  • the present invention is implemented in Java for Java-capable browsers and computer systems, but as will be apparent to those skilled in the art, it could also be implemented in any of a number of programming languages such as C, C++, assembler, ADA, Pascal, and so on.
  • Microsoft's ACCESSTM database software is used to store client profiles on electronic storage media, such as disks, but any of a number of database management programs commercially available could also be used, as could flat files.
  • databases or flat files on disk are used in a preferred embodiment to store user profiles and similar data, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that such data could also be stored in computer memory or be accessible to one computer over a network or over the Internet.
  • software programs to implement the invention those skilled in the art know that some or all of the present invention could also be implemented in firmware or circuitry without deviating from the spirit of the present invention.

Abstract

Cette invention se rapporte à un système informatique éducatif, qui comprend des commandes d'interface interactives ainsi que des commandes d'interfaces orales et cinétiques, pour contribuer à fournir un enseignement à un utilisateur, à établir le profil d'un utilisateur et à commander et surveiller la réalisation d'actions complexes. Ce système permet à l'utilisateur d'indiquer, soit directement soit indirectement, un niveau de confiance (02) dont il désire affecter une action, ainsi que d'autres caractéristiques et limites appropriées à cette action. L'utilisateur peut manipuler les commandes d'interface, pour évaluer des retours d'actions pour lesquelles des répartitions probabilistiques existent en termes de confiance et de risque. Les interactions de l'utilisateur peuvent être adaptées au mode d'apprentissage choisi par l'utilisateur, soit visuel soit oral soit cinétique. Des présentations graphiques, orales et cinétiques sont produites pour montrer à l'utilisateur les résultats d'actions données.
PCT/US1998/006693 1997-04-02 1998-04-02 Outils d'apprentissage interactifs selon differents modes pour systemes informatiques WO1998044443A1 (fr)

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US08/896,471 1997-04-02

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US7685046B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2010-03-23 Folionfn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling individual or smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US7546267B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2009-06-09 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling individual or smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US7047218B1 (en) 1998-03-11 2006-05-16 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for trading securities or other instruments on behalf of customers
US8099344B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2012-01-17 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling individual or smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US7110971B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2006-09-19 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling individual or smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US7844538B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2010-11-30 Folio, Inc. Method and apparatus for trading securities or other instruments
US7552082B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2009-06-23 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling individual or smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US6601044B1 (en) 1998-03-11 2003-07-29 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling individual or smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US7117176B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2006-10-03 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling individual or smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US6996539B1 (en) 1998-03-11 2006-02-07 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US8275690B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2012-09-25 FOLIOn, Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling smaller investors or others to create and manage a portfolio of securities or other assets or liabilities on a cost effective basis
US8078490B2 (en) 1998-03-11 2011-12-13 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for corporate voting
US6516303B1 (en) * 1998-09-14 2003-02-04 Foliofn, Inc. Method, system, and apparatus for managing taxable events within a portfolio
US6161098A (en) * 1998-09-14 2000-12-12 Folio (Fn), Inc. Method and apparatus for enabling small investors with a portfolio of securities to manage taxable events within the portfolio
US7660778B1 (en) * 1998-12-22 2010-02-09 Accenture Global Services Gmbh Runtime program analysis tool for a simulation engine
EP1026612A1 (fr) * 1999-02-03 2000-08-09 Banque Cortal Système d'évaluation des performances d'au moins une valeur de placement financier
FR2789201A1 (fr) * 1999-02-03 2000-08-04 Banque Cortal Systeme d'evaluation des performances d'au moins une valeur de placement financier
US6360210B1 (en) 1999-02-12 2002-03-19 Folio Trade Llc Method and system for enabling smaller investors to manage risk in a self-managed portfolio of assets/liabilities
WO2000067236A1 (fr) * 1999-05-05 2000-11-09 Accenture Properties (2) B.V. Systeme, procede et article destines a integrer des donnees de production dans un systeme educatif visant un objectif
US6338047B1 (en) 1999-06-24 2002-01-08 Foliofn, Inc. Method and system for investing in a group of investments that are selected based on the aggregated, individual preference of plural investors
US6801199B1 (en) 2000-03-01 2004-10-05 Foliofn, Inc. Method and apparatus for interacting with investors to create investment portfolios
US7680747B2 (en) 2002-03-14 2010-03-16 Intuit Inc. Cash generation from portfolio disposition using multi objective genetic algorithms
US7124105B2 (en) 2003-01-22 2006-10-17 Intuit Inc. Cash flow optimization using a genetic algorithm
US7756787B1 (en) 2003-01-22 2010-07-13 Intuit Inc. Bill payment optimization using a genetic algorithm

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