US20220357475A1 - Full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for tunnel under fault dislocation - Google Patents
Full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for tunnel under fault dislocation Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- US20220357475A1 US20220357475A1 US17/737,037 US202217737037A US2022357475A1 US 20220357475 A1 US20220357475 A1 US 20220357475A1 US 202217737037 A US202217737037 A US 202217737037A US 2022357475 A1 US2022357475 A1 US 2022357475A1
- Authority
- US
- United States
- Prior art keywords
- fault
- tunnel
- dislocation
- probability
- damage
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 17
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 15
- 238000005452 bending Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 19
- 239000008186 active pharmaceutical agent Substances 0.000 claims description 10
- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000001186 cumulative effect Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000005315 distribution function Methods 0.000 claims 1
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 5
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000001133 acceleration Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000002411 adverse Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000009933 burial Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
- G01V20/00—Geomodelling in general
-
- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E21—EARTH OR ROCK DRILLING; MINING
- E21F—SAFETY DEVICES, TRANSPORT, FILLING-UP, RESCUE, VENTILATION, OR DRAINING IN OR OF MINES OR TUNNELS
- E21F17/00—Methods or devices for use in mines or tunnels, not covered elsewhere
- E21F17/18—Special adaptations of signalling or alarm devices
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
- G01V1/00—Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
- G01V1/28—Processing seismic data, e.g. for interpretation or for event detection
- G01V1/30—Analysis
- G01V1/301—Analysis for determining seismic cross-sections or geostructures
-
- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E21—EARTH OR ROCK DRILLING; MINING
- E21F—SAFETY DEVICES, TRANSPORT, FILLING-UP, RESCUE, VENTILATION, OR DRAINING IN OR OF MINES OR TUNNELS
- E21F17/00—Methods or devices for use in mines or tunnels, not covered elsewhere
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/10—Geometric CAD
- G06F30/13—Architectural design, e.g. computer-aided architectural design [CAAD] related to design of buildings, bridges, landscapes, production plants or roads
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
- G06F30/23—Design optimisation, verification or simulation using finite element methods [FEM] or finite difference methods [FDM]
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
- G01V2210/00—Details of seismic processing or analysis
- G01V2210/60—Analysis
- G01V2210/64—Geostructures, e.g. in 3D data cubes
- G01V2210/642—Faults
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2111/00—Details relating to CAD techniques
- G06F2111/10—Numerical modelling
Definitions
- the present invention belongs to the technical field of seismic risks of tunnels under fault dislocation, and in particular relates to a full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation.
- the technical specifications for seismic design at home and abroad mainly aim at tunnel damage caused by ground motion of earthquakes, measure the degree of structural damage by using ground motion parameter indexes (such as PGA), and specify the damage of fault dislocation to tunnel structures at home.
- ground motion parameter indexes such as PGA
- the principle of “avoidance and detour” is generally used for design when crossing adverse geological conditions such as active faults. The risk of damage to tunnel structures due to fault dislocation is not assessed.
- the present invention provides a full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation.
- a full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation including the following steps:
- step 1 determining the position, angle, length and type of an active fault that the tunnel passes through, analyzing the seismic activity of the fault, determining a minimum annual occurrence rate of earthquakes in the fault, and evaluating a magnitude-frequency relationship of the fault;
- step 2 evaluating the probabilistic seismic risk of a fault dislocation by using an existing fault dislocation (bedrock dislocation or surface dislocation) prediction equation according to formula (1), to obtain a probabilistic seismic hazard curve of the fault dislocation (the x-axis is the maximum surface dislocation of the fault, and the y-axis is the annual exceeding probability corresponding to the dislocation),
- ⁇ D (d) is an average annual exceeding rate of the fault dislocation D exceeding a certain threshold d
- v is an annual average occurrence rate of earthquakes
- m,) indicates a conditional probability that the fault dislocation is greater than a given value d when the magnitude is m
- f(m) is a probability density function that the fault can produce the earthquake magnitude of m
- step 3 determining basic working conditions of the tunnel crossing the fault, including an angle between the fault and the tunnel, a buried depth and soil properties of the tunnel, etc., performing three-dimensional modeling on the tunnel crossing the fault by using a finite element model, such as Flac3D or ABAQUS, applying a fault dislocation step by step (for example, 0 m to 1 m, once every 0.01 m), and calculating a series of bending moments of a tunnel lining under different fault dislocations;
- a finite element model such as Flac3D or ABAQUS
- step 4 calculating a limit bending moment of the lining of a tunnel segment crossing the fault according to the actual design of the tunnel, and then dividing the series of bending moments obtained in step 3 by the limit bending moment to obtain a series of damage index values R M of the tunnel (that is, bending moment ratio: actual bending moment/limit bending moment);
- step 5 obtaining a vulnerability model of the tunnel damaged by fault dislocation, that is, a relationship between a bending moment ratio in step 4 and a probability of causing the structure to reach different damage states, where the mathematical expression is formula (2):
- P is a cumulative probability of vulnerability function of the tunnel, which describes the probability that the damage state DS of the tunnel is greater than or equal to a specific damage state ds i when a tunnel damage index value R M is given, R M is a median of the damage index, and ⁇ is a log standard deviation of the damage index;
- step 6 based on the probabilistic hazard curve of the dislocation, the damage index value of the tunnel crossing the fault, and the vulnerability model obtained in steps 2-5, calculating, according to formula (3), an annual exceeding rate of different structural damage states of the tunnel crossing the fault under the action of fault dislocation, that is, a probabilistic risk that the tunnel crossing the fault is damaged due to the dislocation of the active fault,
- ⁇ ds i is the annual exceeding rate equal to or greater than a target damage state
- ⁇ D (d) is the average annual exceeding rate of the fault dislocation
- step 7 converting, based on the assumption of obeying the Poisson process, the annual exceeding probability ⁇ obtained in step 6 into a probability P that the damage state is equal to or higher than a certain damage state within a specified period (such as a design period), using formula (4):
- step 8 using the results of steps 6 and 7 to guide the assessment of the seismic risk of the tunnel crossing the fault.
- modeling and analysis can be performed according to the actual situation of the tunnel crossing the fault, and the influence of different factors, such as a buried depth of the tunnel, an angle between the tunnel strike and the fault strike, and a bedrock overburden thickness can be considered by numerical simulation, so that the risk calculation is more reasonable.
- FIG. 1 is an example magnitude and frequency relation diagram of a full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention
- FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an example hazard curve of the full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention
- FIG. 3 is an example finite element model diagram of the full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention
- FIG. 4 is an example dislocation and bending moment ratio diagram of the full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention.
- FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of an example vulnerability curve of serious structure damage in the full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention.
- a tunnel that passes through a strike-slip fault having a width of 31 km and a length of 50 km is known. Seismicity information of the fault: the upper limit of the earthquake magnitude is 7, the lower limit is 5, and the b value is 0.83.
- the tunnel has a lining thickness of 0.6 m and a burial depth of 20 m, and the angle between the tunnel strike and the fault strike is 90°; the tunnel has a weight of 25 kN*m ⁇ 3 , an elastic modulus of 33.5 GPa, and a Poisson's ratio of 0.2.
- Soil layers have a weight of 20 kN*m ⁇ 3 , an elastic modulus of 0.55 GPa, a Poisson's ratio of 0.3, and a cohesion of 0.25 MPa.
- the fault soil layer at an internal friction angle 22° has a weight of 19 kN*m ⁇ 3 , an elastic modulus of 0.35 GPa, a Poisson's ratio of 0.35, a cohesion of 0.1 MPa, and an internal friction angle of 20°.
- Step 1) the annual average occurrence rate V 5 of earthquakes is 0.56, and the obtained relationship between magnitude and frequency is as shown in FIG. 1 ;
- Step 2): fault dislocation prediction equation: lgD 1.0267*M ⁇ 7.3973;
- a probabilistic cut-off model is
- f ⁇ ( m ) ⁇ ⁇ exp [ - ⁇ ⁇ ( m u - m 0 ) ] 1 - exp [ - ⁇ ⁇ ( m u - m 0 ) ] ( m 0 ⁇ m ⁇ m u ) 0 ( o ⁇ t ⁇ h ⁇ e ⁇ r )
- Step 3) establish an ABAQUS finite element model, as shown in FIG. 3 ;
- Step 4) find the relationship between the dislocation and the bending moment ratio, as shown in FIG. 4 ;
- Step 5 obtain a vulnerability curve, as shown in FIG. 5 , and obtain vulnerability curve information, as shown in Table 1;
Landscapes
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Geometry (AREA)
- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Computer Hardware Design (AREA)
- Evolutionary Computation (AREA)
- General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Remote Sensing (AREA)
- General Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Mining & Mineral Resources (AREA)
- Geology (AREA)
- Geophysics (AREA)
- Geochemistry & Mineralogy (AREA)
- Environmental & Geological Engineering (AREA)
- Acoustics & Sound (AREA)
- Structural Engineering (AREA)
- Civil Engineering (AREA)
- Architecture (AREA)
- Computational Mathematics (AREA)
- Mathematical Analysis (AREA)
- Mathematical Optimization (AREA)
- Pure & Applied Mathematics (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
- Geophysics And Detection Of Objects (AREA)
Abstract
A full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation comprises: evaluating a magnitude-frequency relationship of a fault; obtaining a probabilistic seismic risk curve of a fault dislocation; calculating a series of bending moments of a tunnel lining under different fault dislocations; obtaining a series of damage index values RM of the tunnel; obtaining a vulnerability model of the tunnel damaged by fault dislocation; calculating a probabilistic risk that the tunnel crossing the fault is damaged due to the dislocation of the active fault; obtaining a probability P that the damage state is equal to or higher than a certain damage state within a specified period; and using the results to guide the assessment of the seismic risk of the tunnel crossing the fault. Modeling and analysis can be performed according to the actual situation of the tunnel crossing the fault with different factors.
Description
- This application is based upon and claims priority to Chinese Patent Application No. 202110490629.9 filed on May 6, 2021, the entire contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.
- The present invention belongs to the technical field of seismic risks of tunnels under fault dislocation, and in particular relates to a full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation.
- With the acceleration of urbanization development in China, the traffic pressure brought by the rapid growth of urban population is increasing day by day. In order to develop metropolis better and faster, solving the traffic problem bears the brunt. Ground transportation has been far from meeting people's needs. Therefore, underground transportation has become the most promising way to relieve the current traffic pressure in metropolises. Accordingly, domestic metropolises are being vigorously developed at present, for example, shallow buried tunnel structures such as subways are being built all over. Therefore, with the development of economy, the number of underground buildings is increasing. Generally, when the route of a tunnel is designed, crossing a fault should be avoided as much as possible in principle, but sometimes it is unavoidable to cross the fault because of the overall direction of the route.
- The technical specifications for seismic design at home and abroad mainly aim at tunnel damage caused by ground motion of earthquakes, measure the degree of structural damage by using ground motion parameter indexes (such as PGA), and specify the damage of fault dislocation to tunnel structures at home. In the Code for Design of Building Structures (GB50011-2010) and the Code for Design of Highway Tunnels (JTGD70-2-2014), the principle of “avoidance and detour” is generally used for design when crossing adverse geological conditions such as active faults. The risk of damage to tunnel structures due to fault dislocation is not assessed.
- In order to overcome the above problems, the present invention provides a full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation.
- The technical solution used by the present invention is:
- A full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation, including the following steps:
- step 1: determining the position, angle, length and type of an active fault that the tunnel passes through, analyzing the seismic activity of the fault, determining a minimum annual occurrence rate of earthquakes in the fault, and evaluating a magnitude-frequency relationship of the fault;
- step 2: evaluating the probabilistic seismic risk of a fault dislocation by using an existing fault dislocation (bedrock dislocation or surface dislocation) prediction equation according to formula (1), to obtain a probabilistic seismic hazard curve of the fault dislocation (the x-axis is the maximum surface dislocation of the fault, and the y-axis is the annual exceeding probability corresponding to the dislocation),
-
λD(d)=v∫ M P[D>d|m]·f(m)·dm (1) - where in formula (1), λD(d) is an average annual exceeding rate of the fault dislocation D exceeding a certain threshold d, v is an annual average occurrence rate of earthquakes, P(D>d|m,) indicates a conditional probability that the fault dislocation is greater than a given value d when the magnitude is m, and f(m) is a probability density function that the fault can produce the earthquake magnitude of m;
- step 3: determining basic working conditions of the tunnel crossing the fault, including an angle between the fault and the tunnel, a buried depth and soil properties of the tunnel, etc., performing three-dimensional modeling on the tunnel crossing the fault by using a finite element model, such as Flac3D or ABAQUS, applying a fault dislocation step by step (for example, 0 m to 1 m, once every 0.01 m), and calculating a series of bending moments of a tunnel lining under different fault dislocations;
- step 4: calculating a limit bending moment of the lining of a tunnel segment crossing the fault according to the actual design of the tunnel, and then dividing the series of bending moments obtained in
step 3 by the limit bending moment to obtain a series of damage index values RM of the tunnel (that is, bending moment ratio: actual bending moment/limit bending moment); - step 5: obtaining a vulnerability model of the tunnel damaged by fault dislocation, that is, a relationship between a bending moment ratio in
step 4 and a probability of causing the structure to reach different damage states, where the mathematical expression is formula (2): -
- where in formula (2), P is a cumulative probability of vulnerability function of the tunnel, which describes the probability that the damage state DS of the tunnel is greater than or equal to a specific damage state dsi when a tunnel damage index value RM is given,
R M is a median of the damage index, and β is a log standard deviation of the damage index; - step 6: based on the probabilistic hazard curve of the dislocation, the damage index value of the tunnel crossing the fault, and the vulnerability model obtained in steps 2-5, calculating, according to formula (3), an annual exceeding rate of different structural damage states of the tunnel crossing the fault under the action of fault dislocation, that is, a probabilistic risk that the tunnel crossing the fault is damaged due to the dislocation of the active fault,
-
λdsi =∫D P(DS≥ds i |R M =r M(d,θ))|dλ D(d)| (3) - where in formula (3), λds
i is the annual exceeding rate equal to or greater than a target damage state, P(DS≥dsi|RM=rM(d, θ)) is a conditional probability that the damage state DS of the tunnel is greater than the specific damage state dsi when the damage index RM calculated by the finite element model is equal to rM under given dislocation d and other parameters θ (such as angle and buried depth), that is, a vulnerability function, and λD(d) is the average annual exceeding rate of the fault dislocation; - step 7: converting, based on the assumption of obeying the Poisson process, the annual exceeding probability λ obtained in
step 6 into a probability P that the damage state is equal to or higher than a certain damage state within a specified period (such as a design period), using formula (4): -
P=1−e −λt (4) - where in formula (4), t is the specified period of the structure, and λ is λds
i in formula (3); and - step 8: using the results of
steps - The present invention has the following advantages:
- 1. At present, the technical specifications for seismic design at home and abroad mainly aim at the damage to tunnels caused by the ground motion of earthquakes, and the specifications on the damage to tunnel structures caused by the fault dislocation are still unclear. This solution proposes a full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation, which fills the gap in this aspect and quantifies the seismic risk of the tunnel to facilitate application.
- 2. In the calculation solution, modeling and analysis can be performed according to the actual situation of the tunnel crossing the fault, and the influence of different factors, such as a buried depth of the tunnel, an angle between the tunnel strike and the fault strike, and a bedrock overburden thickness can be considered by numerical simulation, so that the risk calculation is more reasonable.
-
FIG. 1 is an example magnitude and frequency relation diagram of a full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention; -
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an example hazard curve of the full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention; -
FIG. 3 is an example finite element model diagram of the full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention; -
FIG. 4 is an example dislocation and bending moment ratio diagram of the full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention; and -
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of an example vulnerability curve of serious structure damage in the full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under fault dislocation according to the present invention. - The present invention is further described below, but the present invention is not limited thereto.
- A tunnel that passes through a strike-slip fault having a width of 31 km and a length of 50 km is known. Seismicity information of the fault: the upper limit of the earthquake magnitude is 7, the lower limit is 5, and the b value is 0.83. The tunnel has a lining thickness of 0.6 m and a burial depth of 20 m, and the angle between the tunnel strike and the fault strike is 90°; the tunnel has a weight of 25 kN*m−3, an elastic modulus of 33.5 GPa, and a Poisson's ratio of 0.2. Soil layers have a weight of 20 kN*m−3, an elastic modulus of 0.55 GPa, a Poisson's ratio of 0.3, and a cohesion of 0.25 MPa. The fault soil layer at an internal friction angle 22° has a weight of 19 kN*m−3, an elastic modulus of 0.35 GPa, a Poisson's ratio of 0.35, a cohesion of 0.1 MPa, and an internal friction angle of 20°.
- Calculate:
- Step 1): the annual average occurrence rate V5 of earthquakes is 0.56, and the obtained relationship between magnitude and frequency is as shown in
FIG. 1 ; - Step 2): fault dislocation prediction equation: lgD=1.0267*M−7.3973;
- A probabilistic cut-off model is
-
- Parameters are brought into formula (1) to obtain a risk curve, as shown in
FIG. 2 ; - Step 3): establish an ABAQUS finite element model, as shown in
FIG. 3 ; - Step 4): find the relationship between the dislocation and the bending moment ratio, as shown in
FIG. 4 ; - Step 5): obtain a vulnerability curve, as shown in
FIG. 5 , and obtain vulnerability curve information, as shown in Table 1; -
TABLE 1 Mean and variance table of vulnerability curve Damage level Mean Variance Serious damage 2.9883 0.13075 - Step 6): according to the information obtained in steps 2-5, using formula (3), calculate the annual exceeding rate of serious damage to the tunnel crossing the fault: λds=0.005;
- Step 7): based on formula (4), the probability of serious damage to the tunnel crossing the fault is P=39.4% when the specified period is 100 years.
- It should be noted that those of ordinary skill in the art may further make variations and improvements without departing from the conception of the present invention, and the variations and improvements all fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. A full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for a tunnel under a fault dislocation, comprises:
step 1: determining a position, an angle, a length, and a type of an active fault that the tunnel passes through, analyzing a seismic activity of the fault, determining a minimum annual occurrence rate of earthquakes in the fault, and evaluating a magnitude-frequency relationship of the fault;
step 2: evaluating a probabilistic seismic hazard of the fault dislocation by using an existing fault dislocation prediction equation according to formula (1), to obtain a probabilistic seismic hazard curve of the fault dislocation,
λD(d)=v∫ M P[D>d|m]·f(m)·dm (1);
λD(d)=v∫ M P[D>d|m]·f(m)·dm (1);
where in formula (1), λD(d) is an average annual exceeding rate of the fault dislocation D exceeding a certain threshold d, v is an annual average occurrence rate of earthquakes, M is an earthquake magnitude, P(D>d|m) indicates a conditional probability that the fault dislocation is greater than a given value d when the earthquake magnitude is m, and f(m) is a probability density function that the fault can produce the earthquake magnitude of m;
step 3: determining basic working conditions of the tunnel crossing the fault, including an angle between the fault and the tunnel and a buried depth and soil properties of the tunnel, performing three-dimensional modeling on the tunnel crossing the fault by using a finite element model, applying the fault dislocation step by step, and calculating a series of bending moments of a tunnel lining under different fault dislocation values;
step 4: calculating a limit bending moment of the lining of a tunnel segment crossing the fault according to an actual design of the tunnel, and then dividing the series of bending moments obtained in step 3 by the limit bending moment to obtain a series of damage index values RM of the tunnel;
step 5: obtaining a vulnerability model of the tunnel damaged by the fault dislocation, that is, a relationship between a bending moment ratio in step 4 and a probability of causing a structure to reach different damage states, where the mathematical expression is formula (2):
where in formula (2), P is a cumulative vulnerability probability function of the tunnel, which describes a probability that a damage state DS of the tunnel is greater than or equal to a specific damage state dsi when a damage index value RM of the tunnel is given, R M is a median of the damage index value, β is a log standard deviation of the damage index value, and ϕ indicates a standard normal cumulative distribution function;
step 6: based on the probabilistic seismic hazard curve of the fault dislocation, the damage index value of the tunnel crossing the fault, and the vulnerability model obtained in steps 2-5, calculating, according to formula (3), an annual exceeding rate of different structural damage states of the tunnel crossing the fault under an action of the fault dislocation, that is, a probabilistic risk that the tunnel crossing the fault is damaged due to a dislocation of the active fault,
λdsi =∫D P(DS≥ds i |R M =r M(d,θ))|dλ D(d)| (3);
λds
where in formula (3), λds i is the annual exceeding rate equal to or greater than a target damage state, P(DS≥dsi|RM=rM(d, θ)) is a conditional probability that the damage state DS of the tunnel is greater than the specific damage state dsi when the damage index value RM calculated by the finite element model is equal to rM under a given dislocation d and other parameters θ (including the angle between the fault and the tunnel and the buried depth of the tunnel), that is, a vulnerability function, and λD (d) is the average annual exceeding rate of the fault dislocation;
step 7: converting, based on an assumption of obeying an Poisson process, the annual exceeding rate obtained in step 6 into a probability P that the damage state is equal to or higher than a certain damage state within a specified period, using formula (4):
P=1−e −λt (4);
P=1−e −λt (4);
where in formula (4), t is the specified period of the structure, and λ is λds i in formula (3); and
step 8: using the results of steps 6 and 7 to guide an assessment of the seismic risk of the tunnel crossing the fault.
2. The full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for the tunnel under the fault dislocation according to claim 1 , wherein in step 2, the fault dislocation is a bedrock dislocation or a surface dislocation; and wherein x-axis of the hazard curve is a maximum surface dislocation of the fault, and y-axis of the hazard curve is the annual exceeding rate corresponding to the dislocation.
3. The full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for the tunnel under the fault dislocation according to claim 1 , wherein in step 3, the finite element model is Flac3D or ABAQUS; a range of applying the fault dislocation step by step is 0 m to 1 m, once every 0.01 m; and RM is the bending moment ratio equated to an actual bending moment divided by the limit bending moment.
4. The full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for the tunnel under the fault dislocation according to claim 1 , wherein in step 7, the specified period is a design period.
Applications Claiming Priority (2)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
CN202110490629.9A CN113187556B (en) | 2021-05-06 | 2021-05-06 | Tunnel earthquake risk analysis method under fault dislocation based on total probability |
CN202110490629.9 | 2021-05-06 |
Publications (2)
Publication Number | Publication Date |
---|---|
US11493656B1 US11493656B1 (en) | 2022-11-08 |
US20220357475A1 true US20220357475A1 (en) | 2022-11-10 |
Family
ID=76983719
Family Applications (1)
Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
---|---|---|---|
US17/737,037 Active US11493656B1 (en) | 2021-05-06 | 2022-05-05 | Full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for tunnel under fault dislocation |
Country Status (2)
Country | Link |
---|---|
US (1) | US11493656B1 (en) |
CN (1) | CN113187556B (en) |
Families Citing this family (6)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN114329307B (en) * | 2022-03-16 | 2022-06-14 | 广东海洋大学 | Fault diagnosis method and system for cross-fault part of tunnel |
CN115788590B (en) * | 2023-01-31 | 2023-04-28 | 中国矿业大学(北京) | Control method and system for anti-seismic deformation and monitoring of surrounding rock of cross-fault tunnel |
CN116127247B (en) * | 2023-02-14 | 2023-08-18 | 中国地震局地球物理研究所 | Probability risk analysis and calculation method for coupling multiple seismic source models |
CN116341086B (en) * | 2023-05-11 | 2023-08-08 | 西南交通大学 | Method, system and storage medium for calculating internal force of tunnel structure crossing active fault |
CN116756954A (en) * | 2023-06-09 | 2023-09-15 | 河海大学 | Method for calculating average annual loss of reinforcement of outer substructure based on interfacial shear stress |
CN116882760B (en) * | 2023-08-09 | 2024-04-09 | 北京建筑大学 | Main aftershock risk interval calculation method and system based on Bayesian updating principle |
Citations (1)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN114692090A (en) * | 2022-04-21 | 2022-07-01 | 重庆科技学院 | Dislocation probability risk analysis method for fault overburden layer |
Family Cites Families (6)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN107292545B (en) * | 2017-08-23 | 2020-05-26 | 中铁二院贵阳勘察设计研究院有限责任公司 | Bridge anti-seismic analysis method based on seismic risk assessment |
CN112258049A (en) * | 2020-10-26 | 2021-01-22 | 西南交通大学 | Safety control method for tunnel in complex geological condition area |
CN112541286A (en) * | 2020-11-23 | 2021-03-23 | 同济大学 | Tunnel earthquake vulnerability analysis method based on incremental dynamic analysis method |
CN112505769B (en) * | 2020-11-25 | 2024-03-26 | 重庆地质矿产研究院 | Shale gas earthquake monitoring intelligent evaluation method based on dynamic geological engineering big data |
CN112541666B (en) * | 2020-12-08 | 2022-09-13 | 同济大学 | Shield tunnel risk assessment method considering uncertainty of earthquake vulnerability model |
CN112686522A (en) * | 2020-12-25 | 2021-04-20 | 中南大学 | Newmark correction model earthquake landslide risk assessment method |
-
2021
- 2021-05-06 CN CN202110490629.9A patent/CN113187556B/en active Active
-
2022
- 2022-05-05 US US17/737,037 patent/US11493656B1/en active Active
Patent Citations (1)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN114692090A (en) * | 2022-04-21 | 2022-07-01 | 重庆科技学院 | Dislocation probability risk analysis method for fault overburden layer |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
Title |
---|
Geller, Earthquake prediction: a critical review, Dept of Earth and Planetary Physics, Faculty of Science, Tokyo University, pages 425-450 (Year: 1997) * |
Also Published As
Publication number | Publication date |
---|---|
CN113187556A (en) | 2021-07-30 |
US11493656B1 (en) | 2022-11-08 |
CN113187556B (en) | 2022-05-10 |
Similar Documents
Publication | Publication Date | Title |
---|---|---|
US20220357475A1 (en) | Full probability-based seismic risk analysis method for tunnel under fault dislocation | |
Wang et al. | Study on an improved real-time monitoring and fusion prewarning method for water inrush in tunnels | |
US20160070828A1 (en) | Vulnerability Assessment Method of Water Inrush from Aquifer Underlying Coal Seam | |
US20190051146A1 (en) | Three-dimensional multi-point multi-index early warning method for risk at power grid tower in landslide section | |
CN104965994A (en) | Determining and estimating method for surface subsidence characteristic parameters caused by subway tunnel construction | |
Lu et al. | Damage analysis of the new Sanyi railway tunnel in the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake: Necessity of second lining reinforcement | |
Xiao et al. | Large deformation characteristics and reinforcement measures for a rock pillar in the Houziyan underground powerhouse | |
CN115495956B (en) | Safety evaluation method for unloading deformation of deep and large rock foundation pit | |
Qiu et al. | Seismic capacity assessment of cracked lining tunnel based on the pseudo-static method | |
CN116203619A (en) | Regional earthquake landslide simulation method based on spatial cross-correlation multi-seismic vibration parameters | |
CN105868481A (en) | Ocean platform pile shoe foundation installing risk control method based on Bayesian theory | |
Han et al. | A resilience assessment framework for existing underground structures under adjacent construction disturbance | |
Mehani et al. | Assessment of seismic fragility curves for existing RC buildings in Algiers after the 2003 Boumerdes earthquake | |
Wang et al. | System safety assessment with efficient probabilistic stability analysis of engineered slopes along a new rail line | |
US20240135069A1 (en) | Risk assessment method of water inrush in tunnels constructed in water-rich grounds | |
CN110346537A (en) | The method of potential rock landslip is determined based on grand liter of plot of construction and landforms bossy body | |
CN112241601B (en) | Shield tunnel seismic restorability analysis method | |
Zhang et al. | A generalized early warning criterion for the landslide risk assessment: deformation probability index (DPI) | |
Murià-Vila et al. | Influence of soil structure interaction and subsoil consolidation in the seismic response of a building | |
JP2595412B2 (en) | Prediction method of railroad embankment critical rainfall and train operation management system using the method | |
CN114692090B (en) | Fault upper earth covering layer fault probability dangerous analysis method | |
Chen et al. | Analysis and application of water inrush mechanism in tunnel based on thin plate model | |
US20240110479A1 (en) | Multi-factor quantitative analysis method for deformation of neighborhood tunnel | |
Yin et al. | Probability risk assessment and management of embankment seismic damages based on CPSHA-PSDA | |
CN108595807A (en) | A kind of computational methods of roadway floor release well width |
Legal Events
Date | Code | Title | Description |
---|---|---|---|
FEPP | Fee payment procedure |
Free format text: ENTITY STATUS SET TO UNDISCOUNTED (ORIGINAL EVENT CODE: BIG.); ENTITY STATUS OF PATENT OWNER: SMALL ENTITY |
|
FEPP | Fee payment procedure |
Free format text: ENTITY STATUS SET TO SMALL (ORIGINAL EVENT CODE: SMAL); ENTITY STATUS OF PATENT OWNER: SMALL ENTITY |
|
STCF | Information on status: patent grant |
Free format text: PATENTED CASE |