TWI831034B - Rice blast forecasting and warning system and method - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
本發明係關於一種用於水稻的病蟲害預警系統及方法，特別係關於一種稻熱病預警系統及方法。 The present invention relates to a disease and insect pest early warning system and method for rice, and in particular to a rice fever early warning system and method.
稻熱病屬於全球性水稻流行病，其係由稻熱菌(病原真菌)所引起之病害，稻熱病的發生與氣候條件息息相關，若水稻處於不適合的生長環境(例如日照不足、氣溫高低不定、水溫高等)，則水稻的抗病力較不佳，此時若環境濕度偏高，則有利於稻熱菌產生分子孢子，孢子隨風落於稻株上，並利用菌絲體侵入水稻組織以吸取養分，而抗病力較不佳的水稻更容易受到稻熱菌的感染。 Rice fever is a global rice epidemic. It is a disease caused by oryzae (pathogenic fungus). The occurrence of rice fever is closely related to climatic conditions. If rice is in an unsuitable growth environment (such as insufficient sunshine, variable temperatures, water If the temperature is high, etc.), the disease resistance of rice is poor. If the environmental humidity is high at this time, it is conducive to the production of molecular spores by Oryzae oryzae. The spores fall on the rice plants with the wind and use mycelium to invade the rice tissue. Rice with poor disease resistance is more susceptible to infection by Oryzae oryzae.
稻熱病的發生嚴重影響稻米的收成量，然而，在以肉眼辨識出病徵前，稻熱菌可能已在田間擴散蔓延，若此時才進行防治，不僅需使用較多的化學藥劑，防治效果也總是趕不上稻熱菌快速傳播的能力。 The occurrence of rice fever seriously affects the rice harvest. However, the rice fever bacteria may have spread in the field before the symptoms of the disease are recognized with the naked eye. If prevention and control is carried out at this time, not only will more chemicals be used, but the control effect will also be reduced. It can never keep up with the ability of rice fever bacteria to spread quickly.
因此，需要開發一種稻熱病預警系統，使得農民可提早評估稻熱病發生的可能性，以盡早制定應對的防治計劃，從而避免稻熱菌持續擴散、減少化學藥劑的使用，及降低稻米收成時的損失。 Therefore, there is a need to develop a rice fever early warning system so that farmers can assess the possibility of rice fever in advance and formulate prevention and control plans as early as possible to avoid the continued spread of rice fever bacteria, reduce the use of chemical agents, and reduce the risk of rice fever during harvest. loss.
本發明之主要目的在於提供一種稻熱病預警系統，該預警系統結合台灣各天氣站的氣候資料及各區域的稻熱病調查資料來建立一稻熱病預警模型，該預警模型可透過輸入全台灣各天氣站的氣候資料，來預測各個區域的水稻田發生稻熱病的可能性，如此有助於農民在稻熱病病徵出現前，提早制定防治計劃，以在減少稻米收成量損失的情況下，同時降低環境受到的危害。此外，利用不同顏色在台灣地圖上呈現不同的染病可能性，亦有助於農民直觀判斷稻熱病發生的風險。 The main purpose of the present invention is to provide a rice fever early warning system. The early warning system combines the climate data of various weather stations in Taiwan and the rice fever survey data of each region to establish a rice fever early warning model. The early warning model can input various weather conditions in Taiwan. The climate data of the station are used to predict the possibility of rice fever in rice fields in various regions. This helps farmers to formulate prevention and control plans in advance before the symptoms of rice fever appear, so as to reduce the loss of rice harvest and reduce the environment at the same time. harm suffered. In addition, using different colors to display different disease possibilities on the Taiwan map also helps farmers intuitively judge the risk of rice fever.
為達上述之目的，本發明提供一種稻熱病預警系統，該系統包括：一稻熱病資料儲存單元，用於儲存多個特定區域的多種與稻熱病相關的資料；一天氣資料儲存單元，用於儲存該多個特定區域的歷史氣候資料及預報氣候資料的多種氣候特徵的多個數據；一稻熱病預測單元，透過一稻熱病預測模型來根據該歷史氣候資料及該預報氣候資料的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據運算出該多個特定區域各自的染病預測數值；一顯示單元，用於根據該多個染病預測數值以一地圖形式視覺化的方式來顯示出該多個特定區域中發生稻熱病之染病可能性；及一警示單元，用於根據該染病可能性對一使用者發出一警示通知。 In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides a rice fever early warning system. The system includes: a rice fever data storage unit for storing a variety of rice fever-related data in multiple specific areas; a weather data storage unit for Store a plurality of data of various climate characteristics of historical climate data and forecast climate data of the plurality of specific regions; a rice fever prediction unit uses a rice fever prediction model to predict the multiple climates based on the historical climate data and the forecast climate data The plurality of characteristic data are calculated to calculate respective infection prediction values of the plurality of specific areas; a display unit is used to visually display the occurrences in the plurality of specific areas in a map form based on the plurality of infection prediction values. The possibility of contracting rice fever; and a warning unit for issuing a warning notice to a user based on the possibility of contracting the disease.
在本發明的一實施例中，該多種與稻熱病相關的資料包括監測地點、監測日期、氣象站名稱、氣象站代碼、氣象站距離及平均罹病面積率。 In one embodiment of the present invention, the various data related to rice fever include monitoring locations, monitoring dates, weather station names, weather station codes, weather station distances, and average diseased area rates.
在本發明的一實施例中，該多種氣候特徵包括氣壓、溫度、露點溫度、相對濕度、風速、風向、降雨、日照時長、能見度、紫外線指數及雲量中的至少兩者。 In an embodiment of the present invention, the plurality of climate characteristics include at least two of air pressure, temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, rainfall, sunshine duration, visibility, UV index and cloud cover.
在本發明的一實施例中，該染病預測數值與該染病可能性之間的關係為：當該染病預測數值大於等於0.8，則為該染病可能性為高；當該染病預測數值介於0.5至0.8之間，則該染病可能性為中等；及當該染病預測數值小於等於0.5，則該染病可能性為低。 In one embodiment of the present invention, the relationship between the disease prediction value and the disease probability is: when the disease prediction value is greater than or equal to 0.8, the disease probability is high; when the disease prediction value is between 0.5 to 0.8, the probability of contracting the disease is medium; and when the predicted value of the disease is less than or equal to 0.5, the probability of contracting the disease is low.
在本發明的一實施例中，在該顯示單元中以該地圖形式視覺化的方式來顯示出該染病可能性係指：隨著該染病預測數值由低到高，該地圖形式係採用藍色、綠色、黃色、橘色、紅色、紫色及粉紅色的順序來以漸層的方式呈現出。 In an embodiment of the present invention, visually displaying the disease possibility in the form of a map in the display unit means: as the predicted value of the disease increases from low to high, the map form adopts a blue color. , green, yellow, orange, red, purple and pink are presented in a gradient manner.
在本發明的一實施例中，該警示單元係在該染病預測數值大於等於0.8時，對該使用者發出該警示通知。 In an embodiment of the present invention, the warning unit issues the warning notification to the user when the disease prediction value is greater than or equal to 0.8.
在本發明的一實施例中，該地圖形式視覺化係以台灣地圖的圖像來呈現。 In an embodiment of the present invention, the map form visualization is presented as an image of a Taiwan map.
為達上述目的，本發明還提供一種稻熱病預警方法，包括以下步驟：S10、將多個特定區域的多種與稻熱病相關的資料儲存於一稻熱病資料儲存單元中；S20、透過通訊網路將該多個特定區域的歷史氣候資料樣本及預報氣候資料樣本的多種氣候特徵的多個數據儲存於一天氣資料儲存單元中；S30、在一稻熱病預測單元利用時間序列演算法對該多個特定區域的該多種與稻熱病相關的資料以及該歷史氣候資料樣本及該預報氣候資料樣本的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據進行運算，以建立一稻熱病預測模型；S40、將多個待測特定區域的欲預測的歷史氣候資料及欲預測的預報氣候資料的多種氣候特徵的多個數據輸入該稻熱病預測模型，以產出該多個待測特定區域各自的染病預測數值；S50、根據該多個染病預測數值以一地圖形式視覺化的方式來顯示出該多個待測特定區 域中發生稻熱病之染病可能性；及S60、根據該染病可能性對一使用者發出一警示通知。 In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention also provides a rice fever early warning method, which includes the following steps: S10. Store a variety of rice fever-related data in multiple specific areas in a rice fever data storage unit; S20. Store the rice fever data through a communication network. Multiple data of various climate characteristics of historical climate data samples and forecast climate data samples of the multiple specific areas are stored in a weather data storage unit; S30, a rice fever prediction unit uses a time series algorithm to predict multiple specific areas. The multiple data related to rice fever in the region and the multiple data of the multiple climate characteristics of the historical climate data sample and the forecast climate data sample are calculated to establish a rice fever prediction model; S40. Combine multiple to-be-tested data Multiple data of various climate characteristics of historical climate data to be predicted and forecast climate data to be predicted in a specific area are input into the rice fever prediction model to produce disease prediction values for each of the multiple specific areas to be measured; S50. According to The plurality of infection prediction values visually display the plurality of specific areas to be measured in a map form. The possibility of rice fever infection in the domain; and S60. Issue a warning notice to a user based on the possibility of disease infection.
在本發明的一實施例中，該染病預測數值與該染病可能性之間的關係為：當該染病預測數值大於等於0.8，則該染病可能性為高；當該染病預測數值介於0.5至0.8之間，則該染病可能性為中等；及當該染病預測數值小於等於0.5，則該染病可能性為低。 In one embodiment of the present invention, the relationship between the disease prediction value and the disease possibility is: when the disease prediction value is greater than or equal to 0.8, the disease possibility is high; when the disease prediction value is between 0.5 and When the predicted value of the disease is less than or equal to 0.5, the probability of the disease is low.
在本發明的一實施例中，在該顯示單元中以該地圖形式視覺化的方式來顯示出該染病可能性係指：隨著該染病預測數值由低到高，該地圖形式係採用藍色、綠色、黃色、橘色、紅色、紫色及粉紅色的順序來以漸層的方式呈現出。 In an embodiment of the present invention, visually displaying the disease possibility in the form of a map in the display unit means: as the predicted value of the disease increases from low to high, the map form adopts a blue color. , green, yellow, orange, red, purple and pink are presented in a gradient manner.
在本發明的一實施例中，該警示單元係在該染病預測數值大於等於0.8時，對該使用者發出該警示通知。 In an embodiment of the present invention, the warning unit issues the warning notification to the user when the disease prediction value is greater than or equal to 0.8.
10:稻熱病預警系統 10: Rice fever early warning system
100:稻熱病資料儲存單元 100: Rice fever data storage unit
102:與稻熱病相關的資料 102: Information related to rice fever
200:天氣資料儲存單元 200: Weather data storage unit
202:歷史氣候資料 202: Historical climate data
204:預報氣候資料 204: Forecast climate data
300:稻熱病預測單元 300: Rice fever prediction unit
302:稻熱病預測模型 302: Rice fever prediction model
304:染病預測數值 304: Infection prediction value
306:染病可能性 306: Possibility of contracting disease
400:顯示單元 400: Display unit
500:警示單元 500: Alert unit
502:警示通知 502: Warning notification
5022:手機簡訊 5022: Mobile SMS
5024:電子郵件 5024:Email
S10-S60:步驟 S10-S60: Steps
[圖1]為根據本發明的一實施例的一種稻熱病預警系統的示意圖。 [Fig. 1] is a schematic diagram of a rice fever early warning system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
[圖2]為根據本發明的一實施例的篩選出用於建立一稻熱病預測模型的資料的流程方塊圖。 [Fig. 2] is a block diagram of a process for selecting data for establishing a rice fever prediction model according to an embodiment of the present invention.
[圖3]為根據本發明的一實施例的一種稻熱病預警方法的流程方塊圖。 [Fig. 3] is a flow block diagram of a rice fever early warning method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
[圖4A]及[圖4B]為根據本發明的一實施例的使用該稻熱病預警系統所呈現出的示例性台灣地圖的圖像。 [Fig. 4A] and [Fig. 4B] are images of an exemplary Taiwan map presented using the rice fever early warning system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
在詳細說明本發明的至少一實施例之前，應當理解的是本發明並非必要受限於其應用在以下描述中的多個示例所舉例說明的多個細節，且多個附圖及所附的描述僅用於使本發明的該多個示例更容易及更清楚被理解。本發明能夠為其他的實施例或者以各種方式被實施或實現。 Before at least one embodiment of the present invention is described in detail, it is to be understood that the invention is not necessarily limited to the details illustrated in the examples in the following description, the accompanying drawings and the accompanying drawings. The description is merely intended to make the various examples of the invention easier and clearer to understand. The invention is capable of other embodiments or of being practiced or carried out in various ways.
本文中所揭露的大小和數值不應意圖被理解為嚴格限於所述精確數值，除非另外指明，各種大小旨在表示所引用的數值以及功能上與所述數值相同的範圍。 The sizes and values disclosed herein are not intended to be construed as being strictly limited to the precise values stated, and unless otherwise specified, various sizes are intended to represent the recited value and a range that is functionally equivalent to the recited value.
請參照圖1所示，本發明提供一種稻熱病預警系統10，該系統包括：一稻熱病資料儲存單元100，用於儲存多個特定區域的多種與稻熱病相關的資料102；一天氣資料儲存單元200，用於儲存該多個特定區域的歷史氣候資料202及預報氣候資料204的多種氣候特徵的多個數據；一稻熱病預測單元300，透過一稻熱病預測模型302來根據該歷史氣候資料202及該預報氣候資料204的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據運算出該多個特定區域各自的染病預測數值304；一顯示單元400，用於根據該多個染病預測數值304以一地圖形式視覺化的方式來顯示出該多個特定區域中發生稻熱病之染病可能性306；及一警示單元500，用於根據該染病可能性對一使用者發出一警示通知502。 Referring to Figure 1, the present invention provides a rice fever early warning system 10. The system includes: a rice fever data storage unit 100 for storing a variety of rice fever-related data 102 in multiple specific areas; a weather data storage unit The unit 200 is used to store a plurality of data of various climate characteristics of the historical climate data 202 and the forecast climate data 204 of the plurality of specific regions; a rice fever prediction unit 300 is used to predict the rice fever according to the historical climate data through a rice fever prediction model 302 202 and the plurality of data of the various climate characteristics of the forecast climate data 204 to calculate the infection prediction values 304 of each of the plurality of specific areas; a display unit 400 for displaying a map in the form of the plurality of infection prediction values 304 Visually display the possibility of rice fever infection 306 in the plurality of specific areas; and a warning unit 500 for issuing a warning notification 502 to a user based on the possibility of disease infection.
在本發明的一實施例中，該多種與稻熱病相關的資料102包括監測地點、監測日期、氣象站名稱、氣象站代碼、氣象站距離及平均罹病面積率，其中該多種與稻熱病相關的資料係從動植物防疫檢疫局之「植物疫情管理資訊網」取得，這是由全臺灣之農試改良場所在2014至2020年期間對水稻一、二期作持續性進行大規模之稻熱病的病害普查所建立的資料庫，下表1將舉例說明在植 物疫情管理資訊網呈現出的部分調查資料。在表1中，平均罹病面機率的算法為：將稻田劃分為多個區域，並計算該多個區域中有多少區域的水稻發生稻熱病，再將該染病區域的數量除以該多個區域的數量，以計算得平均罹病面積率。 In one embodiment of the present invention, the various data 102 related to rice fever include monitoring locations, monitoring dates, weather station names, weather station codes, weather station distances and average diseased area rates, wherein the various data 102 related to rice fever include The information was obtained from the "Plant Epidemic Management Information Network" of the Bureau of Animal and Plant Inspection and Quarantine. This is a large-scale disease survey of rice fever conducted by agricultural trial improvement sites across Taiwan from 2014 to 2020 on the first and second phases of rice. The database established, Table 1 below will illustrate the Part of the survey data presented on the Epidemic Management Information Network. In Table 1, the algorithm for the average diseased area probability is as follows: divide the rice field into multiple areas, calculate how many areas of rice in the multiple areas have rice fever, and then divide the number of infected areas by the multiple areas. number to calculate the average diseased area rate.
請參照圖2所示，以下將說明本發明如何篩選出用於建立該稻熱病預測模型302的稻熱病調查資料及氣象站資料。 Referring to FIG. 2 , the following will describe how the present invention selects the rice fever survey data and weather station data used to establish the rice fever prediction model 302 .
在本發明的一實施例中，若該監測地點與對應氣象站之間的距離大於一預定距離，則排除在該監測地點的調查資料，或是另外利用Vincenty公式根據該監測地點的經緯度在中央氣象局的「測站代號及站況資料查詢網」(https：//e-service.cwb.gov.tw/wdps/obs/state.htm)中找尋在該預定距離內與該監測地點最鄰近的對應氣象站，該預定距離可根據需求為3公里至7公里，優選為5公里。上述篩選係為了確保收集到的該平均罹病面積率與該多種氣候特徵之間的關聯性。以上表1為例，在該預定距離設定為5公里時，由於編號1及2的監測地點與氣象站的距離大於5公里，故不採用編號1及2的調查資料。 In an embodiment of the present invention, if the distance between the monitoring location and the corresponding weather station is greater than a predetermined distance, the survey data at the monitoring location is excluded, or the Vincenty formula is additionally used to calculate the central location based on the longitude and latitude of the monitoring location. Find the closest location to the monitoring location within the predetermined distance from the Meteorological Bureau's "Station Code and Station Condition Information Inquiry Network" (https://e-service.cwb.gov.tw/wdps/obs/state.htm) For the corresponding weather station, the predetermined distance can be 3 kilometers to 7 kilometers according to demand, and is preferably 5 kilometers. The above screening is to ensure the correlation between the collected average disease area rate and the various climate characteristics. Taking Table 1 above as an example, when the predetermined distance is set to 5 kilometers, since the distance between the monitoring locations No. 1 and 2 and the weather station is greater than 5 kilometers, the survey data No. 1 and 2 are not used.
在本發明的一實施例中，若一日內在同一個氣象站有多個可用監測地點皆有提供調查資料，則將這些可用監測地點測得之平均罹病面積率進行平均，以取得一有效平均罹病面積率。若一日內在同一個氣象站僅有一個可用監 測地點具有調查資料，則該可用監測地點的平均罹病面積率即作為有效平均罹病面積率。 In one embodiment of the present invention, if there are multiple available monitoring locations at the same weather station that provide survey data on a day, the average diseased area rates measured at these available monitoring locations are averaged to obtain an effective average. Disease area rate. If there is only one available monitor at the same weather station on a day If survey data is available at the monitoring site, the average diseased area rate at the available monitoring site will be regarded as the effective average diseased area rate.
在本發明的一實施例中，在進行上述篩選後，接著檢查與該多個可用監測地點對應的每個可用氣象站於近期14日內是否亦具有一個或多個監測地點的調查資料，若無，則亦不採用與該可用氣象站對應的該可用監測地點的調查資料；若有，則與最近一筆調查資料的平均罹病面積率或同日多筆調查資料的有效平均罹病面積率進行比較，紀錄稻熱病罹病面積率為上升或下降，並將造成病害加重或減輕的該多種氣候特徵的變化作為用於建立該稻熱病預測模型302的一訓練特徵。 In one embodiment of the present invention, after performing the above screening, it is then checked whether each available weather station corresponding to the multiple available monitoring locations also has survey data of one or more monitoring locations in the recent 14 days. If not, , the survey data of the available monitoring location corresponding to the available weather station will not be used; if there is, it will be compared with the average diseased area rate of the latest survey data or the effective average diseased area rate of multiple survey data on the same day, and recorded The area rate of rice fever disease increases or decreases, and the changes in the various climate characteristics that cause the disease to aggravate or alleviate are used as a training feature for establishing the rice fever prediction model 302.
在本發明的一實施例中，在確定哪些監測地點的調查資料可用於建立該稻熱病預測模型302後，可利用與該些監測地點各自對應的氣象站名稱及氣象站代碼來查詢該些監測地點的氣候資料，其中該歷史氣候資料202及該預報氣候資料204係從中央氣象局的資料庫取得。該歷史氣候資料202係指從一特定時間點往前一段時間內的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據，其中該一段時間可根據需求為3天、7天、14天、21天或28天，但不限於此。該預報氣候資料204係指從該特定時間點往後另一段時間內的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據，其中該另一段時間可根據需求為24小時、48小時、72小時或84小時，但不限於此。 In an embodiment of the present invention, after determining which survey data of monitoring locations can be used to establish the rice fever prediction model 302, the weather station names and weather station codes corresponding to the monitoring locations can be used to query the monitoring locations. The climate data of the location, wherein the historical climate data 202 and the forecast climate data 204 are obtained from the database of the Central Meteorological Bureau. The historical climate data 202 refers to the multiple data of the multiple climate characteristics from a specific point in time to a previous period of time, where the period of time can be 3 days, 7 days, 14 days, 21 days or 28 days according to requirements. , but not limited to this. The forecast climate data 204 refers to the multiple data of the multiple climate characteristics in another period of time from the specific time point, wherein the other period of time can be 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours or 84 hours according to the needs, But not limited to this.
在本發明的一實施例中，該多種氣候特徵包括氣壓、溫度、露點溫度、相對濕度、風速、風向、降雨、日照時長、能見度、紫外線指數及雲量中的至少兩者。 In an embodiment of the present invention, the plurality of climate characteristics include at least two of air pressure, temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, rainfall, sunshine duration, visibility, UV index and cloud cover.
請參照圖3所示，本發明提供使用上述稻熱病預警系統10的一種稻熱病預警方法，該方法主要包括以下步驟：S10、將多個特定區域的多種與稻 熱病相關的資料102儲存於一稻熱病資料儲存單元100中；S20、透過通訊網路將該多個特定區域的歷史氣候資料202的樣本及預報氣候資料204的樣本的多種氣候特徵的多個數據儲存於一天氣資料儲存單元200中；S30、在一稻熱病預測單元300利用時間序列演算法對該多個特定區域的該多種與稻熱病相關的資料102以及該歷史氣候資料202的樣本及該預報氣候資料204的樣本的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據進行運算，以建立一稻熱病預測模型302；S40、將多個待測特定區域的欲預測的歷史氣候資料202及欲預測的預報氣候資料204的多種氣候特徵的多個數據輸入該稻熱病預測模型302，以產出該多個待測特定區域各自的染病預測數值304；S50、根據該多個染病預測數值304以一地圖形式視覺化的方式來顯示出該多個待測特定區域中發生稻熱病之染病可能性306：及S60、根據該染病可能性306對一使用者發出一警示通知502。 Referring to Figure 3, the present invention provides a rice fever early warning method using the above-mentioned rice fever early warning system 10. The method mainly includes the following steps: S10. Combine multiple types of rice fever in multiple specific areas with rice fever. The fever-related data 102 is stored in a rice fever data storage unit 100; S20, store multiple data of various climate characteristics of the samples of historical climate data 202 and the samples of forecast climate data 204 of the multiple specific areas through the communication network. In a weather data storage unit 200; S30, a rice fever prediction unit 300 uses a time series algorithm to sample the various rice fever-related data 102 and the historical climate data 202 in multiple specific areas and the forecast. The plurality of data of the various climate characteristics of the sample of climate data 204 are calculated to establish a rice fever prediction model 302; S40, combine the historical climate data 202 to be predicted and the forecast climate to be predicted in a plurality of specific areas to be measured. Multiple data of various climate characteristics of the data 204 are input into the rice fever prediction model 302 to produce disease prediction values 304 for each of the multiple specific areas to be measured; S50, visualizing the disease in a map form based on the multiple disease prediction values 304 The possibility of rice fever infection 306 in the plurality of specific areas to be tested is displayed in a specialized manner: and S60, a warning notification 502 is issued to a user according to the possibility of infection 306.
本發明提供之稻熱病預警方法首先係：S10、將多個特定區域的多種與稻熱病相關的資料102儲存於一稻熱病資料儲存單元100中。在此步驟中，該多種與稻熱病相關的資料102包括監測地點、監測日期、氣象站名稱、氣象站代碼、氣象站距離及平均罹病面積率。如上所述(參考圖2)，首先從植物疫情管理資訊網收集多個監測地點的調查數據；接著篩選出在一預定距離內具有一對應氣象站的多個可用監測地點，若同一日在同一個氣象站代碼具有多筆調查資料，則將該多筆調查資料的平均病面積率進行平均，以取得一有效平均罹病面積率；隨後再進一步確認哪些可用氣象站於近期14日內具有一個或多個監測地點的調查資料，最後僅保留與符合上述檢查條件的可用氣象站代碼對應的可用監測地點的調查資料。 The rice fever early warning method provided by the present invention first includes: S10. Store a variety of rice fever-related data 102 in multiple specific areas in a rice fever data storage unit 100. In this step, the various data 102 related to rice fever include monitoring location, monitoring date, weather station name, weather station code, weather station distance and average diseased area rate. As mentioned above (refer to Figure 2), first collect survey data from multiple monitoring locations from the Plant Epidemic Management Information Network; then filter out multiple available monitoring locations with a corresponding weather station within a predetermined distance. If a weather station code has multiple survey data, the average disease area rate of the multiple survey data will be averaged to obtain an effective average disease area rate; and then further confirm which available weather stations have one or more disease area rates in the recent 14 days. Survey data of each monitoring location, and finally only the survey data of available monitoring locations corresponding to the available weather station codes that meet the above inspection conditions are retained.
本發明提供之稻熱病預警方法接著係：S20、透過通訊網路將該多個特定區域的歷史氣候資料202的樣本及預報氣候資料204的樣本的多種氣候特徵的多個數據儲存於一天氣資料儲存單元200中。在此步驟中，利用通訊網路(例如物聯網)從中央氣象局取得步驟S10篩選出的多個可用氣候站的歷史氣候資料202的樣本及預報氣候資料204的樣本的多種氣候特徵的多個數據，其中該多種氣候特徵包括氣壓、溫度、露點溫度、相對濕度、風速、風向、降雨、日照時長、能見度、紫外線指數及雲量中的至少兩者。在一優選的實施例中，該歷史氣候資料202的樣本係指從一特定時間點往前至少7天內的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據，而該預報氣候資料204的樣本係指從該特定時間點往後84小時內的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據。 The rice fever early warning method provided by the present invention is followed by: S20, storing multiple data of multiple climate characteristics of the samples of historical climate data 202 and samples of forecast climate data 204 of the multiple specific areas in a weather data storage through the communication network in unit 200. In this step, the communication network (such as the Internet of Things) is used to obtain multiple data of various climate characteristics of the samples of historical climate data 202 of the multiple available climate stations selected in step S10 and the samples of forecast climate data 204 from the Central Meteorological Bureau. , wherein the plurality of climate characteristics include at least two of air pressure, temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, rainfall, sunshine duration, visibility, UV index and cloud cover. In a preferred embodiment, the samples of the historical climate data 202 refer to the multiple data of the multiple climate characteristics at least 7 days from a specific time point, and the samples of the forecast climate data 204 refer to the data from The plurality of data on the various climate characteristics within 84 hours after the specific time point.
本發明提供之稻熱病預警方法接著係：S30、在一稻熱病預測單元300利用時間序列演算法對該多個特定區域的該多種與稻熱病相關的資料102以及該歷史氣候資料202的樣本及該預報氣候資料204的樣本的該多種氣候特徵的該多個數據進行運算，以建立一稻熱病預測模型302。在此步驟中，在該稻熱病預測單元300中，利用時間序列演算法結合步驟S10的該多個可用監測地點的該有效平均罹病面積率及步驟S20的與該多個可用監測地點對應的該多個可用氣象站的該多種氣候特徵的多個數據，以建立該稻熱病預測模型302。在建立該稻熱病預測模型302的過程中，將與同一個可用氣象站對應的一較晚測得之有效罹病面積率與一較早測得之有效罹病面積率(如上所述，選擇最近一筆資料)進行比較，紀錄稻熱病罹病面積率為上升或下降，並將造成病害加重或減輕的該多種氣候特徵的變化作為一訓練特徵，如上所述，該較晚的時間與該較早的時間最長間隔14天。 The rice fever early warning method provided by the present invention is followed by: S30. A rice fever prediction unit 300 uses a time series algorithm to sample the various rice fever-related data 102 and the historical climate data 202 in multiple specific areas. The plurality of data of the plurality of climate characteristics of the sample of the forecast climate data 204 are calculated to establish a rice fever prediction model 302 . In this step, in the rice fever prediction unit 300, a time series algorithm is used to combine the effective average disease area rate of the multiple available monitoring locations in step S10 and the effective average disease area rate corresponding to the multiple available monitoring locations in step S20. Multiple data of the multiple climate characteristics from multiple available weather stations are used to establish the rice fever prediction model 302. In the process of establishing the rice fever prediction model 302, a later measured effective diseased area rate corresponding to the same available weather station and an earlier measured effective diseased area rate (as mentioned above, select the most recent one Data) are compared to record the increase or decrease in the rice fever disease area rate, and the changes in the various climate characteristics that cause the disease to aggravate or abate are used as a training feature. As mentioned above, the later time and the earlier time The maximum interval is 14 days.
本發明提供之稻熱病預警方法接著係：S40、將多個待測特定區域的欲預測的歷史氣候資料202及欲預測的預報氣候資料204的多種氣候特徵的多個數據輸入該稻熱病預測模型302，以產出該多個待測特定區域各自的染病預測數值304。在此步驟中，在一欲預測的時段內(例如，一週期間)，將中央氣象局所提供之全台灣的所有氣象站在至少一選定之日的歷史氣候資料202及預報氣候資料204的多種氣候特徵的多個數據輸入該稻熱病預測模型302，如上所述，該歷史氣候資料202優選為往前至少7天內的資料，而該預報氣候資料204優選為往後84小時內的資料。應當注意的是，雖然該稻熱病預測模型302係利用84小時內的該預報氣候資料204來建立，但透過演算法的設計可使該稻熱病預測模型302預測至少84小時的稻熱病發生風險，在一實施例中，該稻熱病預測模型302可預測一選定之日在未來10天的稻熱病發生風險。舉例而言，若欲預測的時段為2021.05.30至2021.06.05，則至少輸入2021.05.20至2021.05.26期間的歷史氣候資料202及預報氣候資料204，即可評估該欲預測的時段內的稻熱病染病風險。在輸入資料後，該稻熱病預測模型302將輸出各個氣象站在該欲預測的時段內的染病預測數值304。 The rice fever early warning method provided by the present invention is followed by: S40. Input multiple data of various climate characteristics of the historical climate data 202 to be predicted and the forecast climate data 204 to be predicted in the specific areas to be measured into the rice fever prediction model. 302, to generate predicted infection values 304 for each of the plurality of specific areas to be measured. In this step, within a period to be predicted (for example, a week), the historical climate data 202 and the forecast climate data 204 of all weather stations in Taiwan provided by the Central Meteorological Bureau for at least one selected day are combined. Multiple characteristic data are input into the rice fever prediction model 302. As mentioned above, the historical climate data 202 is preferably data for at least 7 days in the past, and the forecast climate data 204 is preferably data for the next 84 hours. It should be noted that although the rice fever prediction model 302 is established using the forecast climate data 204 within 84 hours, the design of the algorithm can enable the rice fever prediction model 302 to predict the risk of rice fever for at least 84 hours. In one embodiment, the rice fever prediction model 302 can predict the risk of rice fever in the next 10 days on a selected date. For example, if the period to be predicted is from 2021.05.30 to 2021.06.05, input at least the historical climate data 202 and forecast climate data 204 from 2021.05.20 to 2021.05.26 to evaluate the climate change within the period to be predicted. Risk of rice fever infection. After inputting the data, the rice fever prediction model 302 will output the disease prediction values 304 of each weather station within the period to be predicted.
本發明提供之稻熱病預警方法接著係：S50、根據該多個染病預測數值304以一地圖形式視覺化的方式來顯示出該多個待測特定區域中發生稻熱病之染病可能性306。在此步驟中，本發明係建立一熱病預警網站，並將步驟S40中在該欲預測的時段內算得之全台灣所有氣象站的該多個染病預測數值304以視覺化的方式呈現在台灣地圖的圖像上。在一實施例中，該染病預測數值304與該染病可能性306之間的關係為：當該染病預測數值304大於等於0.8，則該染病可能性306為高；當該染病預測數值304介於0.5至0.8之間，則該染病可能 性306為中等；及當該染病預測數值304小於等於0.5，則該染病可能性306為低，但不限於此，開發系統人員可根據需求調整該染病預測數值304對於該染病可能性306的分界值。在一實施例中，在該顯示單元400中以該地圖形式視覺化的方式來顯示出該染病可能性306係指：隨著該染病預測數值304由低到高，該地圖形式係採用藍色、綠色、黃色、橘色、紅色、紫色及粉紅色的順序來以漸層的方式呈現出。在一實施例中，台灣地圖上的顏色與該染病可能性306之間的關係可為：藍色代表染病可能性低；綠色、黃色與橘色代表染病可能性中等；及紅色、紫色與粉紅色代表染病可能性高，但不限於此種劃分。 The rice fever early warning method provided by the present invention then proceeds with: S50. Display the possibility of rice fever infection 306 in the plurality of specific areas to be measured in a map-form visualization based on the plurality of disease prediction values 304. In this step, the present invention establishes a fever warning website, and visually presents the multiple disease prediction values 304 of all weather stations in Taiwan calculated in the period to be predicted in step S40 on the map of Taiwan. on the image. In one embodiment, the relationship between the disease prediction value 304 and the disease probability 306 is: when the disease prediction value 304 is greater than or equal to 0.8, the disease probability 306 is high; when the disease prediction value 304 is between Between 0.5 and 0.8, the disease is likely to The probability 306 is medium; and when the predicted disease value 304 is less than or equal to 0.5, the probability 306 of the disease is low, but is not limited to this. The developer of the system can adjust the boundary between the predicted value 304 and the possibility 306 of the disease according to needs. value. In one embodiment, visually displaying the disease possibility 306 in the form of a map in the display unit 400 means: as the predicted value 304 of the disease increases from low to high, the map form uses blue. , green, yellow, orange, red, purple and pink are presented in a gradient manner. In one embodiment, the relationship between the colors on the Taiwan map and the disease probability 306 may be: blue represents a low probability of contracting the disease; green, yellow, and orange represent a medium probability of contracting the disease; and red, purple, and pink Color represents a high likelihood of contracting the disease, but is not limited to this classification.
在本發明的一實施例中，圖4A及4B為本發明的稻熱病預警系統10所呈現出的兩張示例性台灣地圖的圖像，其中圖4A為2021.05.23至2021.05.29呈現出的台灣地圖，而圖4B為2021.05.30至2021.06.05的台灣地圖。由圖4A可知，無論北部、西部、南部及東部，幾乎所有的區域都顯示出紅色、紫色及粉紅色，意即處於高染病可能性的狀態下，這可能係因為台灣今年4、5月份氣溫高且雨量少，造成水稻受到很高的環境壓力，因此健康狀態不佳，造成抗病能力下降。接著，由圖4B可知，除了部分區域(例如，新北市、苗栗縣及台中至高雄)仍呈現出粉紅色，其餘區域的染病可能性306均有改善，這可能係因為2021.05.29至2021.05.31梅雨鋒面為台灣帶來充沛的雨量，並使氣溫下降，因此水稻受到的環境壓力也隨之下降。 In an embodiment of the present invention, Figures 4A and 4B are two exemplary images of Taiwan maps presented by the rice fever early warning system 10 of the present invention, wherein Figure 4A is presented from 2021.05.23 to 2021.05.29 Map of Taiwan, and Figure 4B is the map of Taiwan from 2021.05.30 to 2021.06.05. As can be seen from Figure 4A, regardless of the north, west, south, or east, almost all areas show red, purple, and pink, which means they are in a state of high possibility of infection. This may be due to the temperature in Taiwan in April and May this year. The high temperature and low rainfall cause the rice to be subject to high environmental pressure, resulting in poor health and reduced disease resistance. Next, as can be seen from Figure 4B, except for some areas (for example, New Taipei City, Miaoli County, and Taichung to Kaohsiung) that still appear pink, the disease probability 306 in other areas has improved. This may be due to the period from 2021.05.29 to 2021.05. 31 The Meiyu front brings abundant rainfall to Taiwan and causes the temperature to drop, so the environmental pressure on rice also decreases.
本發明提供之稻熱病預警方法最後係：S60、根據該染病可能性306對一使用者發出一警示通知502。在此步驟中，使用者可進入該稻熱病預警網站查看全台灣各區域發生稻熱病的染病可能性306，並且該使用者亦可註冊該稻熱病預警網站，如此在該使用者關注的區域發生稻熱病的染病可能性306為高 (如上所述，該染病預測數值304大於等於0.8)時，該稻熱病預警網站可透過手機簡訊5022及/或電子郵件5024向該使用者發出該警示通知502。 The final step of the rice fever early warning method provided by the present invention is: S60. Issue a warning notification 502 to a user based on the possibility of contracting the disease 306. In this step, the user can enter the rice fever early warning website to check the infection possibility of rice fever in various regions in Taiwan. 306 The user can also register for the rice fever early warning website, so that if the disease occurs in the area that the user is concerned about, The likelihood of contracting rice fever is 306, which is high. (As mentioned above, when the disease prediction value 304 is greater than or equal to 0.8), the rice fever warning website can send the warning notification 502 to the user through mobile phone text message 5022 and/or email 5024.
綜上所述，本發明所提供稻熱病預警系統及方法有助於農民預先評估氣候使水稻發生稻熱病的染病風險，透過該預警系統預測稻熱病發生的可能性，農民可提早制定應變對策，例如調整施肥的配方，增加鉀肥比例與減少氮肥比例，並且可使用含矽肥料作為土壤改良劑，以增強水稻抗病能力，如次便可降低收成時由稻熱病造成的損害。此外，該稻熱病預警系統也有助於農民妥善分配人力，不須時時刻刻花費很多心力巡視稻田，而是在染病風險提高時增加巡視稻田的頻率，從而有效監控水稻是否受到稻熱病的侵害，並即時將染病的稻株移除，以避免孢子繼續擴散感染健康水稻，如此減少染病水稻面積的同時也減少了化學藥劑的使用量，進而降低化學藥劑對土壤環境的危害。 In summary, the rice fever early warning system and method provided by the present invention can help farmers assess in advance the risk of rice fever caused by the climate. Through the early warning system to predict the possibility of rice fever, farmers can formulate contingency measures in advance. For example, the fertilizer formula can be adjusted to increase the proportion of potassium fertilizer and reduce the proportion of nitrogen fertilizer, and use silicon-containing fertilizers as soil amendments to enhance rice disease resistance, thereby reducing damage caused by rice fever during harvest. In addition, the rice fever early warning system also helps farmers properly allocate manpower. They do not need to spend a lot of time patrolling rice fields. Instead, they increase the frequency of patrolling rice fields when the risk of disease increases, thereby effectively monitoring whether rice is affected by rice fever. Infected rice plants are removed immediately to prevent spores from continuing to spread and infect healthy rice. This reduces the area of infected rice and also reduces the use of chemical agents, thereby reducing the harm of chemical agents to the soil environment.
雖然本發明已以多個較佳實施例揭露，然其並非用以限制本發明，僅用以使具有通常知識者能夠清楚瞭解本說明書的實施內容。本領域中任何熟習此項技藝之人士，在不脫離本發明之精神和範圍內，當可作各種更動、替代與修飾，因此本發明之保護範圍當視後附之申請專利範圍所界定者為準。 Although the present invention has been disclosed in multiple preferred embodiments, they are not intended to limit the present invention, but are only used to enable those with ordinary knowledge to clearly understand the implementation contents of this specification. Any person skilled in the art can make various changes, substitutions and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be deemed to be defined by the appended patent application scope. Accurate.
10:稻熱病預警系統 10: Rice fever early warning system
100:稻熱病資料儲存單元 100: Rice fever data storage unit
102:與稻熱病相關的資料 102: Information related to rice fever
200:天氣資料儲存單元 200: Weather data storage unit
202:歷史氣候資料 202: Historical climate data
204:預報氣候資料 204: Forecast climate data
300:稻熱病預測單元 300: Rice fever prediction unit
302:稻熱病預測模型 302: Rice fever prediction model
304:染病預測數值 304: Infection prediction value
306:染病可能性 306: Possibility of contracting disease
400:顯示單元 400: Display unit
500:警示單元 500: Alert unit
502:警示通知 502: Warning notification
5022:手機簡訊 5022: Mobile SMS
5024:電子郵件 5024:Email
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