TWI735385B - Method and sintering factory for predicting sulfur oxide - Google Patents

Method and sintering factory for predicting sulfur oxide Download PDF

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TWI735385B
TWI735385B TW109141358A TW109141358A TWI735385B TW I735385 B TWI735385 B TW I735385B TW 109141358 A TW109141358 A TW 109141358A TW 109141358 A TW109141358 A TW 109141358A TW I735385 B TWI735385 B TW I735385B
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sintering
desulfurization
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TW202221564A (en
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吳偉信
江麒旭
程品捷
廖敏淳
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中國鋼鐵股份有限公司
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Abstract

A method for predicting sulfur oxide by a sintering factory includes: obtaining sintering data of a sintering machine and obtaining desulfurization data of a desulfurization tower; and training a machine learning model based on the sintering data and the desulfurization data to predict a sulfur oxide emission concentration of a chimney.

Description

硫氧化物的預測方法與燒結工廠Sulfur oxide prediction method and sintering plant

本揭露是關於燒結工廠中的硫氧化物預測方法。This disclosure is about the prediction method of sulfur oxides in sintering plants.

燒結工廠以焦炭為燃料進行燒結製程,產生的煙氣含有硫氧化物,需經過脫硫塔脫除才能排放到大氣中。硫氧化物排放量的決定因子非常多,彼此相互影響,不容易進行預測與掌控,如何提出一種準確的硫氧化物預測方法,為此領域技術人員所關心的議題。The sintering plant uses coke as fuel for the sintering process. The flue gas produced contains sulfur oxides and needs to be removed by a desulfurization tower before it can be discharged into the atmosphere. There are many determinants of sulfur oxide emissions, which affect each other and are not easy to predict and control. How to propose an accurate sulfur oxide prediction method is a topic of concern to those skilled in the art.

本發明的實施例提出一種硫氧化物的預測方法,適用於一燒結工廠,此燒結工廠包括燒結機、脫硫塔與煙囪。此預測方法包括:取得燒結機的多個燒結數據,並且取得脫硫塔的多個脫硫數據;以及根據燒結數據與脫硫數據訓練一機器學習模型,藉此預測煙囪的一硫氧化物排放濃度。The embodiment of the present invention proposes a method for predicting sulfur oxides, which is suitable for a sintering plant. The sintering plant includes a sintering machine, a desulfurization tower, and a chimney. This prediction method includes: obtaining a plurality of sintering data of the sintering machine and obtaining a plurality of desulfurization data of the desulfurization tower; and training a machine learning model based on the sintering data and the desulfurization data to predict the monosulfur oxide emission from the chimney concentration.

在一些實施例中,燒結數據包括燒結機速度、製程煙氣溫度、製程反應溫度、主風機電流與風機抽吸壓力。脫硫數據包括煙氣流量、循環水量、入口硫氧化物濃度、氧化槽進水量、氧化鎂消耗量、循環水酸鹼值、煙氣流速與增壓風機電流。In some embodiments, the sintering data includes sintering machine speed, process flue gas temperature, process reaction temperature, main fan current and fan suction pressure. Desulfurization data includes flue gas flow rate, circulating water volume, inlet sulfur oxide concentration, oxidation tank water intake, magnesium oxide consumption, circulating water pH, flue gas flow rate and booster fan current.

在一些實施例中,上述的預測方法更包括:根據取樣頻率來取得燒結數據與脫硫數據;根據第一時間點的硫氧化物排放濃度以及第二時間點的燒結數據與脫硫數據來訓練隨機森林模型,其中第一時間點與第二時間點之間相差一時間位移;以及逐步調整時間位移以重新訓練隨機森林模型,取得誤差最小的訓練結果與對應的時間位移,藉此將誤差最小的時間位移設定為一延遲時間。In some embodiments, the above prediction method further includes: obtaining sintering data and desulfurization data according to sampling frequency; training according to the sulfur oxide emission concentration at the first time point and the sintering data and desulfurization data at the second time point Random forest model, in which there is a time shift between the first time point and the second time point; and the time shift is gradually adjusted to retrain the random forest model to obtain the training result with the smallest error and the corresponding time shift, thereby minimizing the error The time shift of is set as a delay time.

在一些實施例中,在訓練機器學習模型以後,預測方法還包括:判斷機器學習模型的誤差是否大於一臨界值;以及如果機器學習模型的誤差大於臨界值,根據新資料重新訓練機器學習模型。In some embodiments, after training the machine learning model, the prediction method further includes: judging whether the error of the machine learning model is greater than a critical value; and if the error of the machine learning model is greater than the critical value, retraining the machine learning model based on new data.

在一些實施例中,上述的機器學習模型為迴歸森林,此迴歸森林包括多棵迴歸樹。燒結數據與脫硫數據組成多個特徵向量。上述的預測方法更包括:在訓練階段求解以下數學式1所表示的目標函數。 [數學式1]

Figure 02_image001
In some embodiments, the aforementioned machine learning model is a regression forest, and the regression forest includes multiple regression trees. The sintering data and the desulfurization data form multiple feature vectors. The above prediction method further includes: solving the objective function represented by the following mathematical formula 1 in the training phase. [Math 1]
Figure 02_image001

其中

Figure 02_image003
表示根據第i個特徵向量所預測的硫氧化物排放濃度
Figure 02_image005
與真實數據
Figure 02_image007
之間的誤差。
Figure 02_image009
表示第k顆迴歸樹的複雜度,K為迴歸樹的個數。n為特徵向量的個數。 in
Figure 02_image003
Indicates the predicted sulfur oxide emission concentration based on the i-th eigenvector
Figure 02_image005
With real data
Figure 02_image007
The error between.
Figure 02_image009
Represents the complexity of the k-th regression tree, and K is the number of regression trees. n is the number of feature vectors.

在一些實施例中,上述的預測方法更包括根據以下數學式2求解第t棵迴歸樹中第j個葉節點的權重

Figure 02_image011
。 [數學式2]
Figure 02_image013
Figure 02_image015
Figure 02_image017
Figure 02_image019
Figure 02_image021
In some embodiments, the above-mentioned prediction method further includes calculating the weight of the j-th leaf node in the t-th regression tree according to the following mathematical formula 2.
Figure 02_image011
. [Math 2]
Figure 02_image013
Figure 02_image015
Figure 02_image017
Figure 02_image019
Figure 02_image021

其中

Figure 02_image023
表示前t-1棵迴歸樹所預測的數值,
Figure 02_image025
是尋訪第t顆迴歸樹以後走到第j個葉結點的特徵向量所形成的集合,
Figure 02_image027
為實數。 in
Figure 02_image023
Represents the value predicted by the previous t-1 regression tree,
Figure 02_image025
Is the set formed by the feature vector of the j-th leaf node after searching the t-th regression tree,
Figure 02_image027
Is a real number.

以另一個角度來說,本發明的實施例提出一種燒結工廠,包括燒結機、脫硫塔、煙囪與計算模組。計算模組用以取得燒結機的多個燒結數據,取得脫硫塔的多個脫硫數據,並且根據燒結數據與脫硫數據訓練一機器學習模型,藉此預測煙囪的硫氧化物排放濃度。From another perspective, the embodiment of the present invention provides a sintering plant, including a sintering machine, a desulfurization tower, a chimney, and a calculation module. The calculation module is used to obtain multiple sintering data of the sintering machine, multiple desulfurization data of the desulfurization tower, and train a machine learning model based on the sintering data and the desulfurization data to predict the sulfur oxide emission concentration of the chimney.

在上述的預測方法與燒結工廠中,是同時參考燒結數據與脫硫數據來預測硫氧化物排放濃度,能達到較高的準確率。In the above prediction method and sintering plant, both sintering data and desulfurization data are used to predict the sulfur oxide emission concentration, which can achieve a higher accuracy rate.

關於本文中所使用之「第一」、「第二」等,並非特別指次序或順位的意思,其僅為了區別以相同技術用語描述的元件或操作。Regarding the “first”, “second”, etc. used in this text, it does not particularly mean the order or sequence, but only to distinguish elements or operations described in the same technical terms.

本揭露提出一種硫氧化物的預測方法,適用於一燒結工廠,圖1是根據一實施例繪示燒結工廠的示意圖。燒結工廠包括了儲存槽101、攪拌桶102、生料倉103、墊料倉104、燒結機105、風機106、脫硫塔107、循環幫補108、氧化槽109、氫氧化鎂儲存槽110、脫硝塔111、風機112、煙囪113與計算模組130。計算模組130可以為個人電腦、筆記型電腦、伺服器、工業電腦或具有計算能力的各種電子裝置等,其中可包括中央處理器、微處理器、微控制器、特殊應用積體電路等。The present disclosure proposes a prediction method of sulfur oxides, which is applicable to a sintering plant. FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the sintering plant according to an embodiment. The sintering plant includes storage tank 101, mixing barrel 102, raw material silo 103, litter silo 104, sintering machine 105, fan 106, desulfurization tower 107, circulating supplement 108, oxidation tank 109, magnesium hydroxide storage tank 110, desulfurization Nitrate tower 111, fan 112, chimney 113 and calculation module 130. The computing module 130 may be a personal computer, a notebook computer, a server, an industrial computer, or various electronic devices with computing capabilities, etc., which may include a central processing unit, a microprocessor, a microcontroller, a special application integrated circuit, and the like.

在此簡略燒結工廠的流程,首先儲存槽101中儲存有燒結的各種生料,例如粉鐵礦、助熔劑、細焦炭、無煙煤、燒石灰等等,本發明並不限制這些生料為何。上述的生料會送進攪拌桶102,經過攪拌以後送入生料倉103。這些生料與墊料倉104中的墊料會送至燒結機105,經過燒結後的廢氣經由風機106的抽吸而送進脫硫塔107。脫硫塔107搭配循環幫補108、氧化槽109、氫氧化鎂儲存槽110一起使用,其中循環幫補108用以提供水,氫氧化鎂儲存槽110用以提供氫氧化鎂以進行化學反應。脫硫塔107產生的煙氣會送進脫硝塔111,透過風機112的運作由煙囪113排放出。本發明通常知識者當可理燒結工廠的運作,在此不再詳細贅述。此外,圖1僅是燒結工廠的一範例,本揭露提出的預測方法也可適用於具有其他設置的燒結工廠。Here, the process of the sintering plant is simplified. First, the storage tank 101 stores various raw materials for sintering, such as fine iron ore, flux, fine coke, anthracite, burnt lime, etc. The present invention does not limit these raw materials. The above-mentioned raw meal will be sent into the mixing tank 102, and after being stirred, it will be sent into the raw meal silo 103. The raw meal and the litter in the litter bin 104 are sent to the sintering machine 105, and the sintered waste gas is sucked by the fan 106 and sent to the desulfurization tower 107. The desulfurization tower 107 is used together with the circulating supplement 108, the oxidation tank 109, and the magnesium hydroxide storage tank 110. The circulating supplement 108 is used to provide water, and the magnesium hydroxide storage tank 110 is used to provide magnesium hydroxide for chemical reaction. The flue gas generated by the desulfurization tower 107 will be sent to the denitration tower 111 and discharged from the chimney 113 through the operation of the fan 112. The general knowledge of the present invention should be able to manage the operation of the sintering plant, and will not be described in detail here. In addition, FIG. 1 is only an example of a sintering plant, and the prediction method proposed in this disclosure can also be applied to sintering plants with other settings.

在此實施例中,燒結工廠內設置有多個感測器,這些感測器可以設置在燒結工廠的任意一個位置,用以感測相關的數值,這些數值會傳送至計算模組130。在圖1中繪示了感測器121~127,這些感測器121~127的設置位置與數量僅是示意,每個繪示的感測器可包括多個不同種類的感測器,這些感測器的設置位置並不限於圖1所示的位置,或者感測器121~127也可以內建在相關的儀器設備當中。在此實施例中,感測器121設置在燒結機105內,用以感測燒結機105的製程反應速度與製程煙氣溫度,此外燒結機105也會將自身的速度(亦稱為燒結機速度)傳送至計算模組130。感測器122用以感測風機106的抽吸壓力(稱為風機抽吸壓力)與電流(稱為主風機電流),也用以感測煙氣的溫度以及入口硫氧化物濃度。感測器123用以偵測煙氣流量與循環水酸鹼值。感測器124用以感測氧化鎂消耗量,感測器125用以感測循環水量與氧化槽進水量。感測器126用以感測風機112的電流(稱為增壓風機電流)。感測器127用以感測煙氣流速與硫氧化物排放濃度。為了簡化起見,圖1並未繪示出所有的感測器。In this embodiment, a plurality of sensors are provided in the sintering plant, and these sensors can be set at any position of the sintering plant to sense related values, and these values will be transmitted to the calculation module 130. The sensors 121 to 127 are shown in FIG. 1. The positions and numbers of the sensors 121 to 127 are only for illustration. Each sensor shown may include a plurality of different types of sensors. The location of the sensor is not limited to the location shown in FIG. 1, or the sensors 121 to 127 can also be built in related equipment. In this embodiment, the sensor 121 is provided in the sintering machine 105 to sense the process reaction speed and the process flue gas temperature of the sintering machine 105. In addition, the sintering machine 105 will also control its own speed (also called the sintering machine). Speed) is transmitted to the calculation module 130. The sensor 122 is used to sense the suction pressure (referred to as the fan suction pressure) and current (referred to as the main fan current) of the fan 106, and is also used to sense the temperature of the flue gas and the inlet sulfur oxide concentration. The sensor 123 is used to detect the flue gas flow rate and the pH value of the circulating water. The sensor 124 is used for sensing the consumption of magnesium oxide, and the sensor 125 is used for sensing the amount of circulating water and the amount of water entering the oxidation tank. The sensor 126 is used to sense the current of the fan 112 (referred to as a booster fan current). The sensor 127 is used to sense the flue gas flow rate and the sulfur oxide emission concentration. For the sake of simplicity, not all sensors are shown in FIG. 1.

上述的數據可分為關於燒結機105的燒結數據以及關於脫硫塔107的脫硫數據。具體來說,燒結數據包括了燒結機速度、製程煙氣溫度、製程反應溫度、主風機電流與風機抽吸壓力等。脫硫數據則包括了煙氣流量、循環水量、入口硫氧化物濃度、氧化槽進水量、氧化鎂消耗量、循環水酸鹼值、煙氣流速與增壓風機電流等。然而,上述數據僅示範例,在其他實施例中也可以增加其他的燒結數據以及脫硫數據。計算模組130可以根據這些燒結數據與脫硫數據訓練機器學習模型,藉此預測位於煙囪113的硫氧化物排放濃度。在此所採用的機器學習模型可以是決策樹、隨機森林、多層次神經網路、卷積神經網路、支持向量機等等,本發明並不在此限。The above-mentioned data can be divided into sintering data about the sintering machine 105 and desulfurization data about the desulfurization tower 107. Specifically, the sintering data includes sintering machine speed, process flue gas temperature, process reaction temperature, main fan current and fan suction pressure, etc. Desulfurization data includes flue gas flow rate, circulating water volume, inlet sulfur oxide concentration, oxidation tank water intake, magnesium oxide consumption, circulating water pH, flue gas flow rate, and booster fan current. However, the above data are only exemplary, and other sintering data and desulfurization data can also be added in other embodiments. The calculation module 130 can train a machine learning model based on the sintering data and the desulfurization data, so as to predict the concentration of sulfur oxide emissions in the chimney 113. The machine learning model used here can be a decision tree, a random forest, a multi-level neural network, a convolutional neural network, a support vector machine, etc. The present invention is not limited to this.

圖2是根據一實施例繪示訓練機器學習的流程圖。請參照圖2,首先資料庫210中儲存有燒結數據、脫硫數據與硫氧化物排放濃度,這些數據屬於時間序列資料,例如每秒一筆數值。在此可先設定一個取樣頻率(例如為1小時),計算每筆數據在每1小時內的平均以作為訓練樣本,這些訓練樣本組成資料集220。換言之,資料集220中包括多筆訓練樣本,每筆訓練樣本包括在某一時間點的燒結數據、脫硫數據與硫氧化物排放濃度。Fig. 2 is a flowchart of training machine learning according to an embodiment. Please refer to FIG. 2. First, the database 210 stores sintering data, desulfurization data, and sulfur oxide emission concentration. These data belong to time series data, such as one value per second. Here, a sampling frequency (for example, 1 hour) can be set first, and the average of each piece of data in every 1 hour can be calculated as the training sample, and these training samples form the data set 220. In other words, the data set 220 includes multiple training samples, and each training sample includes sintering data, desulfurization data, and sulfur oxide emission concentration at a certain point in time.

接下來,在步驟230,刪除燒結機異常或停機資料。首先判斷燒結機是否異常或停機,在此採用杜凱圍牆技術(tukey fences),在收集所有的燒結機速度以後計算由小排到大的第一個四分位數(first quartile)Q1、第三個四分位數Q3以及這兩者的差距Q3-Q1,稱為四分位間距(interquartile range,IQR),如果某筆訓練樣本的燒結機速度大於Q3+1.5*IQR或是小於Q1-1.5*IQR,則判斷此訓練樣本異常,異常時間點的前後兩小時的資料都會捨棄。在其他實施例中也可以用平均值與標準差來刪除異常資料,本發明並不在此限。Next, in step 230, delete the abnormality or shutdown data of the sintering machine. Firstly, judge whether the sintering machine is abnormal or shut down. Here, tukey fences are used. After collecting all the speeds of the sintering machine, calculate the first quartile Q1 from the smallest row to the largest one. The three quartiles Q3 and the difference between the two Q3-Q1 are called interquartile range (IQR). If the sintering machine speed of a certain training sample is greater than Q3+1.5*IQR or less than Q1- 1.5*IQR, the training sample is judged to be abnormal, and the data for two hours before and after the abnormal time point will be discarded. In other embodiments, the average value and standard deviation can also be used to delete abnormal data, and the present invention is not limited thereto.

在步驟240中,刪除硫氧化物排放異常資料。同樣的使用杜凱圍牆法,計算硫氧化物排放濃度的四分位數Q1、四分位數Q3與四分位間距IQR。如果某筆訓練資料的硫氧化物排放濃度大於Q3+1.5*IQR或小於等於0,則判斷為異常,刪除此訓練樣本。In step 240, the abnormal sulfur oxide emission data is deleted. Similarly, using the Dukai wall method, calculate the quartile Q1, the quartile Q3 and the interquartile range IQR of the sulfur oxide emission concentration. If the sulfur oxide emission concentration of a piece of training data is greater than Q3+1.5*IQR or less than or equal to 0, it is judged to be abnormal and the training sample is deleted.

在步驟250中,尋找延遲時間。由於燒結機、脫硫塔與煙囪出口的煙氣之間具有時間差,因此不能用相同時間的燒結數據、脫硫數據與硫氧化物排放濃度來訓練機器學習模型。圖3是根據一實施例繪示尋找延遲時間的示意圖。在此取得第一時間點T 1的硫氧化物排放濃度,然後取得第二時間點T 2的燒結數據與脫硫數據,根據這些資料來訓練一隨機森林模型,其中第一時間點T 1與第二時間點T 2之間相差一時間位移310。在一些實施例,可以將80%的訓練樣本用來訓練,另外20%的訓練樣本用來測試,本發明並不在此限。訓練完以後會得到一訓練結果,此訓練結果會包含一誤差,例如均方根誤差。在訓練完以後,可逐步調整時間位移310以重新訓練機器學習模型。在此以硫氧化物排放濃度為目標,因此可逐步增加或減少第二時間點T 2,不同的時間位移310會對應至不同的訓練結果。在訓練多次以後,取得誤差最小的訓練結果與對應的時間位移310,將此誤差最小的時間位移310設定為延遲時間。在一些實施例中,可以分鐘為單位來逐步調整時間位移310。如果延遲時間為60分鐘,這表示煙氣需要經過約60分鐘才能從燒結機108、脫硫塔107流到煙囪113。 In step 250, the delay time is searched. Due to the time difference between the sintering machine, the desulfurization tower and the flue gas from the chimney outlet, the sintering data, desulfurization data and sulfur oxide emission concentration of the same time cannot be used to train the machine learning model. FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating the search delay time according to an embodiment. Here, the sulfur oxide emission concentration at the first time point T 1 is obtained, and then the sintering data and desulfurization data at the second time point T 2 are obtained, and a random forest model is trained based on these data, where the first time point T 1 and There is a time shift 310 between the second time point T 2. In some embodiments, 80% of the training samples can be used for training, and the other 20% of training samples can be used for testing. The present invention is not limited to this. After the training is completed, a training result will be obtained, and the training result will contain an error, such as a root mean square error. After training, the time shift 310 can be adjusted gradually to retrain the machine learning model. Here, the sulfur oxide emission concentration is the target, so the second time point T 2 can be gradually increased or decreased, and different time shifts 310 will correspond to different training results. After training multiple times, the training result with the smallest error and the corresponding time displacement 310 are obtained, and the time displacement 310 with the smallest error is set as the delay time. In some embodiments, the time shift 310 may be adjusted step by step in units of minutes. If the delay time is 60 minutes, it means that it takes about 60 minutes for the flue gas to flow from the sintering machine 108 and the desulfurization tower 107 to the chimney 113.

在上述實施例中燒結數據與脫硫數據採用相同的第二時間點T 2,但在其他實施例中這兩筆數據也可以採用不同的時間點。舉例來說,請參照圖4,第三時間點T 3的燒結數據可搭配第二時間點T 2的脫硫數據與第一時間點T 1的硫氧化物排放濃度以訓練隨機森林模型,其中第三時間點T 3在第二時間點T 2之前,第二時間點T 2在第一時間點T 1之前。第一時間點T 1與第三時間點T 3之間具有時間位移320。在這樣的例子中,時間位移310、320都是變數。誤差最小的訓練結果所對應的時間位移310、320會作為上述的延遲時間。 In the foregoing embodiment, the sintering data and the desulfurization data use the same second time point T 2 , but in other embodiments, the two pieces of data may also use different time points. For example, referring to Figure 4, the sintering data at the third time point T 3 can be combined with the desulfurization data at the second time point T 2 and the sulfur oxide emission concentration at the first time point T 1 to train the random forest model, where The third time point T 3 is before the second time point T 2 , and the second time point T 2 is before the first time point T 1 . There is a time shift 320 between the first time point T 1 and the third time point T 3. In such an example, the time shifts 310 and 320 are both variables. The time shift 310 and 320 corresponding to the training result with the smallest error will be used as the aforementioned delay time.

參照迴圖2,在步驟260,以上述計算出的延遲時間重新整理資料集,藉此讓燒結數據與脫硫數據都配對至對應的硫氧化物排放濃度。舉例來說,如果延遲時間為60分鐘,則在第一時間點T 1的硫氧化物排放濃度會配對至時間點(T 1-60)的燒結數據與脫硫數據,藉此形成整理後的一份訓練樣本,這些整理後的訓練樣本組成整理後的資料集270。 Referring back to FIG. 2, in step 260, the data set is rearranged with the delay time calculated above, so that both the sintering data and the desulfurization data are matched to the corresponding sulfur oxide emission concentration. For example, if the delay time is 60 minutes, the sulfur oxide emission concentration at the first time point T 1 will be matched to the sintering data and desulfurization data at the time point (T 1 -60), thereby forming a sorted A training sample, and these sorted training samples form a sorted data set 270.

整理後的資料集270可分成三份,分別是訓練集281、驗證集282與測試集283。訓練集281與驗證集282用來訓練機器學習模型290。在步驟291中,將測試集283輸入至訓練好的機器學習模型290以進行測試。在一實驗中,測試集283的均方根誤差為2.45,而判定係數R平方(R 2)為0.952。 The sorted data set 270 can be divided into three parts, which are a training set 281, a validation set 282, and a test set 283. The training set 281 and the validation set 282 are used to train the machine learning model 290. In step 291, the test set 283 is input to the trained machine learning model 290 for testing. In an experiment, the root mean square error of the test set 283 is 2.45, and the determination coefficient R square (R 2 ) is 0.952.

圖5是根據一實施例繪示在推論階段的方法流程圖。請參照圖5,首先從燒結工廠的感測器510(如圖2的感測器121~127)取得燒結數據與脫硫數據520,然後將這些燒結數據與脫硫數據520輸入至上述訓練好的機器學習模型以進行預測(步驟530)。預測的硫氧化物排放濃度540則存放在資料庫550中,這些預測出的硫氧化物排放濃度540可用以控制其他製程,或用來調整燒結工廠中任意裝置的參數,本發明並不在此限。另外,當煙氣從煙囪113排放以後,從感測器510可以取得硫氧化物排放濃度的真實數據(ground truth),這些真實數據也會存在資料庫550中。Fig. 5 is a flowchart of a method in the inference stage according to an embodiment. 5, first obtain the sintering data and desulfurization data 520 from the sensors 510 of the sintering plant (sensors 121 to 127 in FIG. 2), and then input these sintering data and desulfurization data 520 into the above-mentioned training The machine learning model is used to make predictions (step 530). The predicted sulfur oxide emission concentration 540 is stored in the database 550. The predicted sulfur oxide emission concentration 540 can be used to control other processes or adjust the parameters of any device in the sintering plant. The present invention is not limited to this. . In addition, after the flue gas is discharged from the chimney 113, the ground truth of the sulfur oxide emission concentration can be obtained from the sensor 510, and these real data will also be stored in the database 550.

在經過一段時間以後可從資料庫550選取特定長度區間(例如一個月)的資料,包括上述的真實數據與預測的硫氧化物排放濃度。接下來在步驟560中,根據真實數據與預測的硫氧化物排放濃度計算機器學習模型的誤差,例如為均方根誤差。在步驟570中,判斷此誤差是否大於等於一個臨界值(例如5)。如果步驟570的結果為否,則不需要重新訓練(步驟580)。如果步驟570的結果為是,則在步驟590中把新資料加入至資料集中重新訓練機器學習模型。After a period of time, data of a specific length (for example, one month) can be selected from the database 550, including the above-mentioned real data and the predicted sulfur oxide emission concentration. Next, in step 560, the error of the machine learning model is calculated based on the real data and the predicted sulfur oxide emission concentration, for example, the root mean square error. In step 570, it is determined whether the error is greater than or equal to a critical value (for example, 5). If the result of step 570 is no, there is no need to retrain (step 580). If the result of step 570 is yes, then in step 590 the new data is added to the data set to retrain the machine learning model.

在一些實施例中,上述實施例所採用的機器學習模型是將多顆迴歸樹加總起來(稱為迴歸森林),不同之處在於加入一逞罰項至目標函數中,使得複雜度降低。具體來說,假設有K棵樹,其中K為正整數,這K顆樹可以依照以下數學式1加總起來。 [數學式1]

Figure 02_image029
In some embodiments, the machine learning model used in the above embodiments is to add multiple regression trees (referred to as a regression forest). The difference is that a penalty term is added to the objective function to reduce the complexity. Specifically, assuming there are K trees, where K is a positive integer, these K trees can be summed up according to the following mathematical formula 1. [Math 1]
Figure 02_image029

其中

Figure 02_image031
表示第i筆特徵向量,特徵向量可由上述的燒結數據與脫硫數據所組成。
Figure 02_image005
是根據第i筆特徵向量所預測的硫氧化物排放濃度。
Figure 02_image033
是第k顆迴歸樹。一顆迴歸樹具有一或多個中間節點,每個中間節點具有一個判斷式,用以判斷特徵向量中的某一個元素是否大於一特定數值,藉此繼續走向左子樹或是右子樹。迴歸樹的子節點則有一權重,即代表此迴歸樹的輸出。本領具有通常知識者當可理解迴歸樹,在此並不詳細贅述。 in
Figure 02_image031
Represents the i-th feature vector, which can be composed of the above-mentioned sintering data and desulfurization data.
Figure 02_image005
Is the predicted sulfur oxide emission concentration based on the i-th feature vector.
Figure 02_image033
It is the kth regression tree. A regression tree has one or more intermediate nodes, and each intermediate node has a judgment formula for judging whether an element in the feature vector is greater than a specific value, thereby continuing to the left subtree or the right subtree. The child nodes of the regression tree have a weight, which represents the output of the regression tree. Those with ordinary knowledge should understand the regression tree, so I won't go into details here.

在訓練階段時,硫氧化物排放濃度的真實數據表示為

Figure 02_image007
,在此實施例中目標函數表示為以下數學式2。 [數學式2]
Figure 02_image001
During the training phase, the real data of sulfur oxide emission concentration is expressed as
Figure 02_image007
In this embodiment, the objective function is expressed as the following mathematical formula 2. [Math 2]
Figure 02_image001

其中n為所有特徵向量的個數。

Figure 02_image003
表示預測的硫氧化物排放濃度
Figure 02_image005
與真實數據
Figure 02_image007
之間的誤差,可採用平方差、絕對值差或其他合適的誤差,本發明並不在此限。
Figure 02_image009
表示第k顆迴歸樹的複雜度,例如為葉節點的數目,樹的深度等等。為了求解上述的目標函數,在此是一次求解一顆迴歸樹,進行多次循環以後得到迴歸森林,此循環可以表示為以下數學式3。 [數學式3]
Figure 02_image035
Figure 02_image037
Figure 02_image039
...
Figure 02_image041
Where n is the number of all feature vectors.
Figure 02_image003
Indicates the predicted concentration of sulfur oxide emissions
Figure 02_image005
With real data
Figure 02_image007
The error between the squared difference, the absolute value difference, or other appropriate errors can be used, and the present invention is not limited thereto.
Figure 02_image009
Represents the complexity of the k-th regression tree, such as the number of leaf nodes, the depth of the tree, and so on. In order to solve the above objective function, here is to solve one regression tree at a time, and the regression forest is obtained after multiple cycles. This cycle can be expressed as the following mathematical formula 3. [Math 3]
Figure 02_image035
Figure 02_image037
Figure 02_image039
...
Figure 02_image041

其中

Figure 02_image043
表示第t棵迴歸樹所預測的數值。換言之,t次循環所預測的數值
Figure 02_image043
等於前t-1次循環所預測的數值
Figure 02_image045
再加上第t次循環所得到的迴歸樹
Figure 02_image047
所預測的數值。把數學式3代入至數學式2的目標函數,再透過泰勒展開式來近似函數
Figure 02_image043
以後可以得到在求解第t顆迴歸樹時的目標函數,如以下數學式4所示。 [數學式4]
Figure 02_image049
Figure 02_image019
Figure 02_image021
in
Figure 02_image043
Represents the value predicted by the t-th regression tree. In other words, the predicted value of t cycles
Figure 02_image043
Equal to the value predicted by the previous t-1 cycle
Figure 02_image045
Plus the regression tree obtained in the t-th cycle
Figure 02_image047
The predicted value. Substitute Mathematical Formula 3 into the objective function of Mathematical Formula 2, and then approximate the function through Taylor's expansion
Figure 02_image043
Later, the objective function when solving the t-th regression tree can be obtained, as shown in the following mathematical formula 4. [Math 4]
Figure 02_image049
Figure 02_image019
Figure 02_image021

在上述數學式4中的泰勒展開式採用了兩個級數的近似值。在求解第t顆迴歸樹時,前t-1顆迴歸樹已經決定,因此數學式4的最後兩項為常數項,不影響目標函數的大小,可忽略不計。The Taylor expansion in the above-mentioned Mathematical Equation 4 adopts the approximation of two series. When solving the t-th regression tree, the first t-1 regression trees have been determined. Therefore, the last two terms of Mathematical Formula 4 are constant terms, which do not affect the size of the objective function and can be ignored.

在一些實施例中,迴歸樹的複雜度可由以下數學式5來計算。 [數學式5]

Figure 02_image051
In some embodiments, the complexity of the regression tree can be calculated by the following mathematical formula 5. [Math 5]
Figure 02_image051

其中

Figure 02_image053
為迴歸樹中葉結點的數目,
Figure 02_image055
是第j個葉節點的權重。
Figure 02_image057
Figure 02_image027
為使用者可自行定義的實數。把數學式5代入數學式4,再刪除常數項以後可得到以下數學式6。 [數學式6]
Figure 02_image059
in
Figure 02_image053
Is the number of leaf nodes in the regression tree,
Figure 02_image055
Is the weight of the j-th leaf node.
Figure 02_image057
and
Figure 02_image027
It is a real number that can be defined by the user. Substituting Mathematical Formula 5 into Mathematical Formula 4, and then deleting the constant term, the following Mathematical Formula 6 can be obtained. [Math 6]
Figure 02_image059

其中

Figure 02_image025
表示在尋訪第t顆迴歸樹以後走到第j個葉結點的所有特徵向量所形成的集合。當求解第t顆迴歸樹時,權重
Figure 02_image061
是所要求解的變數,數學式6可視為權重
Figure 02_image061
的二次方程式,透過二次方程式的公式解可以求得最佳的權重
Figure 02_image011
與目標函數的值如以下數學式7所示。 [數學式7]
Figure 02_image013
Figure 02_image063
Figure 02_image015
Figure 02_image017
in
Figure 02_image025
It means the set formed by all the feature vectors of the j-th leaf node after searching for the t-th regression tree. When solving the tth regression tree, the weight
Figure 02_image061
Is the variable to be solved, and Mathematical formula 6 can be regarded as the weight
Figure 02_image061
The quadratic equation of, the best weight can be obtained through the formula solution of the quadratic equation
Figure 02_image011
The value of the and objective function is shown in the following equation 7. [Math 7]
Figure 02_image013
Figure 02_image063
Figure 02_image015
Figure 02_image017

接下來說明如何決定迴歸樹的結構,從深度0開始,每次必須決定一個節點,也就是從特徵向量中找到一個元素以進行分割,分割後會產生左葉節點與右葉節點,訓練的目標在於分割後能夠使目標函數最小。在分割前與分割後的目標函數的值如以下數學式8所示。在此是尋找最佳的分割,使得數學式9中的增益Gain為最大。 [數學式8]

Figure 02_image065
Figure 02_image067
[數學式9]
Figure 02_image069
Figure 02_image071
Next, explain how to determine the structure of the regression tree. Starting from depth 0, a node must be determined each time, that is, an element is found from the feature vector for segmentation. After segmentation, a left leaf node and a right leaf node will be generated, the training target It is that the objective function can be minimized after segmentation. The values of the objective function before and after the division are as shown in the following equation 8. Here is to find the best division, so that the gain Gain in Mathematical formula 9 is the maximum. [Math 8]
Figure 02_image065
Figure 02_image067
[Math 9]
Figure 02_image069
Figure 02_image071

其中

Figure 02_image073
在分割後的目標函數的值,
Figure 02_image075
為分割後所有葉節點的個數。
Figure 02_image077
是分割前的目標函數的值,
Figure 02_image079
是分割前所有葉節點的個數。搜尋最適當分割的演算法可參照以下表1所示的虛擬碼。 [表1] Gain
Figure 02_image081
 0
Figure 02_image083
,
Figure 02_image085
for k=1 to m do    
Figure 02_image087
,
Figure 02_image089
    for j in sorted(I, by
Figure 02_image091
) do        
Figure 02_image093
,
Figure 02_image095
       
Figure 02_image097
,
Figure 02_image099
       
Figure 02_image101
)     end end
Split with max score
in
Figure 02_image073
The value of the objective function after segmentation,
Figure 02_image075
Is the number of all leaf nodes after splitting.
Figure 02_image077
Is the value of the objective function before segmentation,
Figure 02_image079
Is the number of all leaf nodes before splitting. The algorithm for searching for the most appropriate segmentation can refer to the virtual code shown in Table 1 below. [Table 1] Gain
Figure 02_image081
0
Figure 02_image083
,
Figure 02_image085
for k=1 to m do
Figure 02_image087
,
Figure 02_image089
for j in sorted(I, by
Figure 02_image091
) do
Figure 02_image093
,
Figure 02_image095
Figure 02_image097
,
Figure 02_image099
Figure 02_image101
) end end
Split with max score

表1的第5行是先把將所有的特徵向量中的第k個元素做排序,然後取排序後的第j個元素以測試分割後的結果。經過第5~8行的迴圈以後等於測試完特徵向量中的第k個元素,找到對於第k個元素來說最佳的分割點。經過第3~10的迴圈以後等於測試完特徵向量中所有的元素。在表1的第11行則以最大分數score所對應的分割點來對迴歸樹進行分割。The fifth row of Table 1 is to sort the k-th element in all the feature vectors first, and then take the j-th element after sorting to test the split result. After the loop of the 5th to 8th lines, the kth element in the feature vector is tested, and the best segmentation point for the kth element is found. After the 3rd to 10th loops, all the elements in the feature vector are tested. In the 11th row of Table 1, the regression tree is split by the split point corresponding to the maximum score.

在上述的迴歸森林模型中,透過加入逞罰項(迴歸樹的複雜度)可以增加推論的準確度。In the above regression forest model, the accuracy of the inference can be increased by adding a penalty term (complexity of the regression tree).

雖然本發明已以實施例揭露如上,然其並非用以限定本發明,任何所屬技術領域中具有通常知識者,在不脫離本發明的精神和範圍內,當可作些許的更動與潤飾,故本發明的保護範圍當視後附的申請專利範圍所界定者為準。Although the present invention has been disclosed in the above embodiments, it is not intended to limit the present invention. Anyone with ordinary knowledge in the relevant technical field can make some changes and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. The protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to those defined by the attached patent application scope.

101:儲存槽 102:攪拌桶 103:生料倉 104:墊料倉 105:燒結機 106:風機 107:脫硫塔 108:循環幫補 109:氧化槽 110:氫氧化鎂儲存槽 111:脫硝塔 112:風機 113:煙囪 121~127:感測器 130:計算模組 210:資料庫 220:資料集 270:整理後的資料集 281:訓練集 282:驗證集 283:測試集 290:機器學習模型 230,240,250,260,291,530,560,570,580,590:步驟 310,320:時間位移 T 1:第一時間點 T 2:第二時間點 T 3:第三時間點 510:感測器 520:燒結數據與脫硫數據 540:預測的硫氧化物排放濃度 550:資料庫101: storage tank 102: mixing barrel 103: raw meal silo 104: litter silo 105: sintering machine 106: fan 107: desulfurization tower 108: circulating supplement 109: oxidation tank 110: magnesium hydroxide storage tank 111: denitration tower 112: Fan 113: Chimney 121~127: Sensor 130: Computing Module 210: Database 220: Data Set 270: Organized Data Set 281: Training Set 282: Validation Set 283: Test Set 290: Machine Learning Model 230,240,250,260,291,530,560,570,580,590: step 310: time shift T 1: first time point T 2: second time point T 3: the third time point 510: sensor 520: data 540 desulfurization sintered data: sulfur oxides emission concentration prediction 550: database

為讓本發明的上述特徵和優點能更明顯易懂,下文特舉實施例,並配合所附圖式作詳細說明如下。 [圖1]是根據一實施例繪示燒結工廠的示意圖。 [圖2]是根據一實施例繪示訓練機器學習的流程圖。 [圖3]是根據一實施例繪示尋找延遲時間的示意圖。 [圖4]是根據一實施例繪示尋找延遲時間的示意圖。 [圖5]是根據一實施例繪示在推論階段的方法流程圖。 In order to make the above-mentioned features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, the following specific embodiments are described in detail in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. [Fig. 1] is a schematic diagram showing a sintering plant according to an embodiment. [Fig. 2] is a flowchart of training machine learning according to an embodiment. [Fig. 3] is a schematic diagram showing the search delay time according to an embodiment. [Fig. 4] is a schematic diagram showing the search delay time according to an embodiment. [Fig. 5] is a flowchart of the method in the inference stage according to an embodiment.

210:資料庫 210: database

220:資料集 220: Data Set

270:整理後的資料集 270: Organized data set

281:訓練集 281: Training Set

282:驗證集 282: Validation Set

283:測試集 283: Test Set

290:機器學習模型 290: Machine Learning Model

230,240,250,260,291:步驟 230, 240, 250, 260, 291: steps

Claims (10)

一種硫氧化物的預測方法,適用於一燒結工廠,該燒結工廠包括一燒結機、一脫硫塔與一煙囪,該預測方法包括: 取得該燒結機的多個燒結數據,並且取得該脫硫塔的多個脫硫數據;以及 根據該些燒結數據與該些脫硫數據訓練一機器學習模型,藉此預測該煙囪的硫氧化物排放濃度。 A prediction method of sulfur oxides is suitable for a sintering plant, the sintering plant includes a sintering machine, a desulfurization tower and a chimney, and the prediction method includes: Obtain a plurality of sintering data of the sintering machine, and obtain a plurality of desulfurization data of the desulfurization tower; and According to the sintering data and the desulfurization data, a machine learning model is trained to predict the sulfur oxide emission concentration of the chimney. 如請求項1所述之預測方法,其中該些燒結數據包括一燒結機速度、製程煙氣溫度、製程反應溫度、主風機電流與風機抽吸壓力, 其中該些脫硫數據包括煙氣流量、循環水量、入口硫氧化物濃度、氧化槽進水量、氧化鎂消耗量、循環水酸鹼值、煙氣流速與增壓風機電流。 The prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the sintering data includes a sintering machine speed, process flue gas temperature, process reaction temperature, main fan current and fan suction pressure, The desulfurization data includes flue gas flow rate, circulating water volume, inlet sulfur oxide concentration, oxidation tank water intake, magnesium oxide consumption, circulating water pH value, flue gas flow rate and booster fan current. 如請求項1所述之預測方法,更包括: 根據一取樣頻率來取得該些燒結數據與該些脫硫數據; 根據第一時間點的該硫氧化物排放濃度以及第二時間點的該些燒結數據與該些脫硫數據來訓練一隨機森林模型,其中該第一時間點與該第二時間點之間相差一時間位移;以及 逐步調整該時間位移以重新訓練該隨機森林模型,取得誤差最小的訓練結果與對應的該時間位移,藉此將誤差最小的該時間位移設定為一延遲時間。 The forecasting method as described in claim 1, further including: Obtaining the sintering data and the desulfurization data according to a sampling frequency; Train a random forest model according to the sulfur oxide emission concentration at the first time point and the sintering data and the desulfurization data at the second time point, wherein the difference between the first time point and the second time point A time shift; and The time shift is gradually adjusted to retrain the random forest model, and the training result with the smallest error and the corresponding time shift are obtained, thereby setting the time shift with the smallest error as a delay time. 如請求項1所述之預測方法,其中在訓練該機器學習模型以後,該預測方法還包括: 判斷該機器學習模型的誤差是否大於一臨界值;以及 如果該機器學習模型的誤差大於該臨界值,根據新資料重新訓練該機器學習模型。 The prediction method according to claim 1, wherein after training the machine learning model, the prediction method further includes: Determine whether the error of the machine learning model is greater than a critical value; and If the error of the machine learning model is greater than the critical value, the machine learning model is retrained according to the new data. 如請求項1所述之預測方法,其中該機器學習模型為一迴歸森林,該迴歸森林包括多棵迴歸樹,該些燒結數據與該些脫硫數據組成多個特徵向量,該預測方法更包括: 在訓練階段求解以下數學式1所表示的目標函數, [數學式1]
Figure 03_image001
其中
Figure 03_image003
表示根據第i個特徵向量所預測的硫氧化物排放濃度
Figure 03_image005
與真實數據
Figure 03_image007
之間的誤差,
Figure 03_image009
表示第k顆迴歸樹的複雜度,K為該些迴歸樹的個數,n為該些特徵向量的個數。
The prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the machine learning model is a regression forest, the regression forest includes a plurality of regression trees, the sintering data and the desulfurization data form a plurality of feature vectors, and the prediction method further includes : Solve the objective function represented by the following mathematical formula 1 in the training phase, [Mathematical formula 1]
Figure 03_image001
in
Figure 03_image003
Indicates the predicted sulfur oxide emission concentration based on the i-th eigenvector
Figure 03_image005
With real data
Figure 03_image007
The error between
Figure 03_image009
Indicates the complexity of the k-th regression tree, K is the number of these regression trees, and n is the number of the feature vectors.
如請求項5所述之預測方法,更包括: 根據以下數學式2求解第t棵迴歸樹中第j個葉節點的權重
Figure 03_image011
, [數學式2]
Figure 03_image013
Figure 03_image015
Figure 03_image017
Figure 03_image019
Figure 03_image021
其中
Figure 03_image023
表示前t-1棵迴歸樹所預測的數值,
Figure 03_image025
是尋訪該第t顆迴歸樹以後走到該第j個葉結點的該些特徵向量所形成的集合,
Figure 03_image027
為實數。
The prediction method described in claim 5 further includes: Solving the weight of the j-th leaf node in the t-th regression tree according to the following mathematical formula 2
Figure 03_image011
, [Math 2]
Figure 03_image013
Figure 03_image015
Figure 03_image017
Figure 03_image019
Figure 03_image021
in
Figure 03_image023
Represents the value predicted by the previous t-1 regression tree,
Figure 03_image025
Is the set formed by the feature vectors of the j-th leaf node after searching the t-th regression tree,
Figure 03_image027
Is a real number.
一種燒結工廠,包括: 一燒結機; 一脫硫塔; 一煙囪;以及 一計算模組,用以取得該燒結機的多個燒結數據,取得該脫硫塔的多個脫硫數據,並且根據該些燒結數據與該些脫硫數據訓練一機器學習模型,藉此預測該煙囪的硫氧化物排放濃度。 A kind of sintering plant, including: A sintering machine; A desulfurization tower; A chimney; and A calculation module for obtaining a plurality of sintering data of the sintering machine, obtaining a plurality of desulfurization data of the desulfurization tower, and training a machine learning model based on the sintering data and the desulfurization data to predict The concentration of sulfur oxide emissions from the chimney. 如請求項7所述之燒結工廠,其中該些燒結數據包括一燒結機速度、製程煙氣溫度、製程反應溫度、主風機電流與風機抽吸壓力, 其中該些脫硫數據包括煙氣流量、循環水量、入口硫氧化物濃度、氧化槽進水量、氧化鎂消耗量、循環水酸鹼值、煙氣流速與增壓風機電流。 The sintering plant according to claim 7, wherein the sintering data includes a sintering machine speed, process flue gas temperature, process reaction temperature, main fan current and fan suction pressure, The desulfurization data includes flue gas flow rate, circulating water volume, inlet sulfur oxide concentration, oxidation tank water intake, magnesium oxide consumption, circulating water pH value, flue gas flow rate and booster fan current. 如請求項7所述之燒結工廠,其中該計算模組更用以執行: 根據一取樣頻率來取得該些燒結數據與該些脫硫數據; 根據第一時間點的該硫氧化物排放濃度以及第二時間點的該些燒結數據與該些脫硫數據來訓練一隨機森林模型,其中該第一時間點與該第二時間點之間相差一時間位移;以及 逐步調整該時間位移以重新訓練該隨機森林模型,取得誤差最小的訓練結果與對應的該時間位移,藉此將誤差最小的該時間位移設定為一延遲時間。 The sintering plant according to claim 7, wherein the calculation module is further used to execute: Obtaining the sintering data and the desulfurization data according to a sampling frequency; Train a random forest model according to the sulfur oxide emission concentration at the first time point and the sintering data and the desulfurization data at the second time point, wherein the difference between the first time point and the second time point A time shift; and The time shift is gradually adjusted to retrain the random forest model, and the training result with the smallest error and the corresponding time shift are obtained, thereby setting the time shift with the smallest error as a delay time. 如請求項7所述之燒結工廠,其中該計算模組更用以執行: 判斷該機器學習模型的誤差是否大於一臨界值;以及 如果該機器學習模型的誤差大於該臨界值,根據新資料重新訓練該機器學習模型。 The sintering plant according to claim 7, wherein the calculation module is further used to execute: Determine whether the error of the machine learning model is greater than a critical value; and If the error of the machine learning model is greater than the critical value, the machine learning model is retrained according to the new data.
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